Inside Prediction Markets

Епизоде

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  CFB vs. NFL Kickoff Weekend: Where the Real Volume Showed Up 16.09.2026 33мин

  Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools we've built to track line history, fills and exchange flow in real time.Then we get into a big slate of football. College football week 2 delivered. Huge volume across the board, tight spreads, and deep liquidity on marquee matchups like Michigan–Oklahoma and Texas–Ohio State.On the NFL side, we open with the Chiefs–Broncos Monday night line and from there it's a full Week 1 recap: Myles Garrett landing on IR, Lions–Bills predictions for Thursday, the Giants' win over the Cowboys, the Jets sitting tied for first in their division, and a rough opening week for a couple of last year's MVP-caliber quarterbacks. 
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  Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams 09.09.2026 54мин

  This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated closing-line-driven betting process and how prediction market liquidity is reshaping sportsbook limits heading into the season. From there we dig into Seahawks-Patriots (and the safety injuries moving that line) and the travel-schedule twist in Rams-49ers, plus his take on Aaron Donald.To close it out, Rob answers reader questions, including his pick for a 5-year quarterback rebuild, his take on the Lane Kiffin bonus-hedge story and the 2 teams he'd price differently in the NFL power rankings.
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  Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney 02.09.2026 44мин

  This week we discuss LSU reportedly using prediction markets to hedge Lane Kiffin-related bonuses, Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, the politics surrounding prediction market regulation and whether the industry could eventually become too big to unwind.Then, gaming and prediction markets attorney, Alex Dubin, joins the show to break down the Ninth Circuit’s ruling against Kalshi, why it conflicts with the Third Circuit’s decision, and how the growing divide between federal and state regulators could ultimately land in front of the Supreme Court.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.00:00 LSU hedges Lane Kiffin on Kalshi01:57 Polymarket’s $21B valuation2:50 Trump Jr.: "Back Off"04:08 Alex Dubin joins the show07:33 Ninth circuit ruling15:06 Why federal markets are split on PMs 17:03 Could PMs reach the Supreme Court?27:11 Are PMs gambling? 33:26 Are PMs too big to fail?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  The Race to Dominate NFL Prediction Markets 26.08.2026 29мин

  This week, President Trump expressed his support of prediction markets in the U.S., our Novig CEO and co-founder Jacob had a CNBC feature and NFL players are returning to college football. Then, we get into the NFL markets that are already exceeding expectations before the regular season begins. We unpack the surge in preseason trading volume and predict just how massive trading will become Week 1. We debate which exchanges will grow the most from football season and preview trading activity around the U.S. Open. We wrap up with a quick debrief of BetBash 2026.
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  Professional NFL Handicapper Reveals His Biggest Preseason Edges 19.08.2026 54мин

  We open this week with our 3 big things: Kalshi has a new 3.5% maker fee on RFQs, Underdog just released a new crash-style game and Novig passed Rothera in trailing 7-day prediction market volume!Then, our good friend Hitman joins us to discuss all things NFL. He shares how he got into the touting space and then breaks down how he approaches NFL preseason betting and identifies teams the market may be pricing incorrectly. He explains why he’s higher on the Patriots and Jaguars, lower on the Commanders and Packers, and what he expects from teams like the Ravens and Giants this season. 
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  The Prediction Market Takeover Is Just Getting Started | BetBash 2026 12.08.2026 59мин

  For this week’s episode, we filmed in Las Vegas at BetBash 2026! We sat down with our good friend Pads to hear how he went from working as a chemical engineer to becoming a full-time professional bettor and eventually joining Bookie Beats. We break down live betting, some of the biggest opportunities and debates in sports betting right now and how prediction markets are rapidly changing the space. In the second half of the episode, we take questions from the BetBash crowd and dive deeper into market making, liquidity, the growth of Novig and what we’re expecting as the NFL season approaches.
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  Inside Novig’s New Market Making Firm: Manhattan Athletic Group (MAG) 05.08.2026 39мин

  Underdog just sold to IG group for $1.3 billion and the state of New York is suing Kalshi for $36 billion. This week we also discuss BetBash, the annual sports gambling networking conference in Vegas. We talk about what to expect, advice if you’re a first timer and people we’re excited to see. Then, we officially introduce MAG: Manhattan Athletic Group. MAG is Novig's new market making firm dedicated exclusively to sports prediction markets. We explain why we built MAG and why we’re so excited about what's ahead. We wrap up by discussing the CFTC's new proposal and what it could mean for the broader prediction market ecosystem.
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  From Poker To Prediction Markets: How To Build A Profitable Operation 29.07.2026 41мин

  Netflix released a new documentary about prediction markets and is facing some backlash. Kalshi is threatening legal action towards Netflix based on some false information revealed in the trailer for the documentary. Also, ProphetX raised $35 million to expand their federally regulated sports prediction market platform and Fanatics has acquired their own prediction market exchange. Then, Camden Mariotti joins us in the OpticOdds Hot Seat. He talks about becoming a professional trader and how it all started gambling at a poker table with Chris in college. Camden eventually got into sports betting and then completely switched his focus to prediction markets. He talks about what it takes to be successful in PMs and the kind of people you want by your side. We close the interview with Camden revealing his biggest loss in trading and giving some great advice for beginners in the space.
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  Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team 22.07.2026 36мин

  Kalshi is rolling out compute forward curves and really expanding after World Cup markets have brought an insane wave of volume into prediction markets this summer. Also, Underdog Fantasy is officially entering the space with its own prediction market exchange and Henry and Chris discuss what platforms will be most popular for the NFL season ahead. Then, Larry and Joe join them in the OpticOdds Hot Seat and they talk through their backgrounds, what each of them specializes in and how they would approach building a prediction market trading team from the ground up. They get into hiring strategy, the different skill sets a market-making team needs and how to find people with a real edge.
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  How AI Gives You a Massive Edge on Prediction Markets 15.07.2026 26мин

  From Kalshi's new Pro trading terminal to the Bryce Harper FanDuel controversy, Henry and Chris discuss all the biggest stories this week. Importantly, they dive into how AI is completely changing the way prediction market traders work and how the rapid adoption of tools like Claude, ChatGPT and Perplexity have transformed traders' workflow. They debate whether AI can help traders build an edge, and what prediction markets could look like in the near future.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:00:00 Kalshi's New Pro Trading Terminal01:25 Bryce Harper FanDuel Controversy05:37 Kalshi's Legal Battle with NY07:53 How AI Is Changing Prediction Markets12:30 ChatGPT vs Claude vs Perplexity18:52 Inside the World of Advantage Gambling25:28 Conor McGregor Inflow#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  Malik Beasley EXPOSED, Prediction Market BANNED in Michigan, and World Cup Volume SHATTERING Records 01.07.2026 31мин

  A Michigan judge has banned Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state unless they obtain an OSB license — and ordered $120,000 per day in fines if they don't comply. Chris and Henry break down why this is just another stop on the inevitable road to the Supreme Court. Then: Malik Beasley gets caught shaving props for pocket change — texts showing him scrambling to put together $2,000 while on a $42 million career contract. Chris and Henry debate how common this actually is, whether prediction markets make it easier to catch, and whether this story updates their priors on how much rigging is really happening across sports.Plus, World Cup volume is shattering records across every platform, every market maker is rooting for draws and upsets, and Chris makes a bold prediction for NFL season: $50 million at 3% worse than fair value, available in a single regular season game.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Michigan Bans Kalshi2:30 – Malik Beasley Caught Shaving Props12:00 – SIG Loses $70M to Insider Trading14:00 – World Cup Breaking Every Record19:00 – Chris's Bold NFL Season Prediction25:00 – Matt Kalish Draftkings Hypocrisy28:00 – Would You Write a Check Into Kalshi at $40 Billion?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets 24.06.2026 47мин

  Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) trader Andrew Courtney (@andrewcourt1) joins the Optic Odds Hot Seat to discuss what it's really like inside one of the world's most respected trading firms.Andrew spent 15 years at SIG, where he worked in market making, ETF trading, and trading system development before eventually finding his way into prediction markets. Along the way, he learned how professional traders think about risk, adverse selection, liquidity, and building efficient markets.This conversation offers a rare look inside the mindset of a professional trader.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:00:00 - Andrew Courtney's Background02:55 - How SIG Trains Professional Traders08:05 - Learning Market Making at SIG13:50 - Poker, Betting & Trader Culture18:30 - What Market Makers Actually Do25:00 - Why Great Traders Embrace Risk30:20 - Will AI Replace Traders?36:15 - Leaving SIG & Discovering Prediction Markets40:50 - The Biggest Problems in Prediction Markets45:10 - Sharps, Squares & Market Makers#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  Optic Odds CEO on Powering the Industry + World Cup Volume Shattering Records 17.06.2026 32мин

  Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds, joins Chris and Henry in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Matt traces the full origin story: from a Stanford dorm room startup called OddsJam to the realization that the real value wasn't the consumer product but the data infrastructure powering it. He covers how Optic Odds became the cornerstone of the prediction market tech stack, and his most expensive lesson — not pivoting to prediction markets sooner.Also: World Cup volume is hitting all-time highs across every prediction market platform and every market maker is quietly rooting for ties and upsets. Chris and Henry break down what the numbers actually mean, why the Knicks cost market makers a phone book in the NBA Finals, and whether a Morgan Stanley report claiming Kalshi did 10% of US sports volume is believable.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – World Cup Volume Is Breaking Every Record1:12 – The Knicks Cost Market Makers a Phone Book2:50 – Did Kalshi Really Do 10% of US Sports Volume?4:07 – Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds6:00 – Data Infrastructure Becoming the Product16:00 – How PMs Changed Optic Odds20:00 – Could Optic Odds Trade Its Own Data?26:31 – Matt's Road to Success30:32 – Optic Odds' Most Expensive Lesson#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win 03.06.2026 50мин

  A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No even though the sale actually happened before the deadline and Kalshi launches the American Power Index.Then Josh (@spacemanOTH) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Josh runs a two-person betting operation focused on college football, NBA player props, and prediction market making. He breaks down how he built his team by identifying complementary skill sets at BetBash, why profiling your competitors in Survivor is just as important as picking the right team, how he thinks about toxic order flow and protecting his book as a small operation, the rookie mistake of uploading quotes in a predictable window every day, and why he took a shot on Trump in 2024.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.0:00 – NYC Bar Hedging Knicks2:41 – Polymarket Resolves a Market Wrong4:34 – Kalshi American Power Index7:20 – Introducing Josh @spacemanOTH9:52 – How Josh Built His Team12:00 – RFQs: Free Money or a Dangerous Experiment?16:00 – Profiling Competitors in Survivor and Market Making23:00 – The Rookie Mistake That Cost Him28:00 – Low-Hanging Fruit vs. Long Term Building33:00 – Josh's Trump 2024 Bet41:00 – Josh's Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  The Insider's Guide to Prediction Market Terminology: Defining the Terms You Need to Know 27.05.2026 38мин

  Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, setting up the split circuit that everyone was expecting and almost certainly sending this to the Supreme Court. Plus, the New York Times runs a piece on regular people beating Wall Street on prediction markets.Then it's just Chris and Henry going deep on the terms that get thrown around constantly in prediction markets but rarely get properly defined. Adverse selection, top down, alpha, live betting, market making — each one broken down clearly with real examples, common misconceptions corrected, and listener questions answered along the way. If you've ever nodded along to a conversation in this space without fully understanding what's being said, this is the episode for you.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Kyle Kuzma: Unlikely PM Hero1:48 – Supreme Court Here We Come4:39 – Regular Guys Are Beating Wall Street7:06 – Defining Adverse Selection10:30 – Defining Top Down16:00 – Defining Alpha22:51 – Defining Live Betting30:00 – Listener Questions34:15 – Defining Market Making#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  Matt Kalish Crashes Out + 4casters Zach on the Future of Prediction Markets 20.05.2026 36мин

  Matt Kalish — co-founder of DraftKings — had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle. Sporttrade suspends OSB operations and Polymarket and Nasdaq announce perpetual contracts on individual stocks, which raises the obvious question: is this just an option with a different name?Then Zach from 4casters joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. 4casters has been quietly doubling year over year since 2021, approaching a billion in volume, and remains one of the only sharp-on-sharp exchanges in the space. Zach breaks down how that model actually sustains itself, why he's not rushing to become the twenty-fifth prediction market, what he really thinks the regulatory coin flip looks like over the next two years, and whether Polymarket USA just gets boxed out entirely if Novig gets to market first.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Matt Kalish Crashes Out on Twitter4:39 – Sporttrade Suspends OSB6:27 – Polymarket and Nasdaq Announce Stock Perps8:30 – Introducing Zach From 4casters11:00 – From Telegram Group Chat to a Billion in Volume19:00 – Navigating Fees24:00 – Novig Boxing Out Polymarket USA34:00 – Prediction Markets Teach Humility?35:02 – Zach's Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  The Insider's Guide to Market Making on Prediction Markets 14.05.2026 33мин

  What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to book sharp flow or whether they've just never been tested, and why price discovery on prediction markets might quietly be forcing a fairer game for everyone.Chris and Henry cover the full picture: how market makers make money, why it's harder than it looks, the difference between a market maker and a sharp, why you could be trading against Joe from the deli and not even know it, and what it actually takes to level up in a zero sum game where the sportsbook model would just kick you out. One of the more educational episodes the show has done — and a good one to send to anyone who keeps asking you to explain what you do.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Market Making3:00 – Can Sportsbooks Actually Book Sharp Flow?5:00 – What Is Market Making?10:00 – How Market Makers Earn16:00 – The Difference Between a Market Maker and a Sharp22:00 – Are You Really Betting Against Joe from the Deli?30:00 – Are Prediction Markets Peer to Peer?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange 06.05.2026 54мин

  Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons.Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant liquidity providers on prediction markets today — in both crypto binaries and sports. He breaks down his thesis that every market is effectively the same if you understand order books, how he made most of his early sports PNL in the first two months with zero competition, the wildest manipulation story you'll hear this year, and the most expensive bugs that have cost him.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Ghost Orders2:00 – PM CMO Caught on Live Stream4:20 – PM Oracle Contraversy7:40 – Max Shen-Molesky Joins the Show15:00 – Where Max Makes His Money18:30 – Can You Manipulate Crypto Binary Markets?24:00 – Why Every Market Is the Same35:00 – The Strategy That Keeps Winning51:00 – Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  The Maduro Insider Trading Scandal and Shipper on How Sharps Actually Win 29.04.2026 49мин

  A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation — and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn't done on a CFTC-regulated platform, but it still matters: the system is starting to work, Trump is calling the world a casino, and the CFTC commissioner is putting more regulation on the table.Then Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. He's one of the most respected minds in sports betting Twitter and brings a rare perspective — someone who has sat on both sides of the market. The conversation covers how he thinks about information sharing, what it was like switching from bookmaker to bettor and how sharps like him are actually approaching prediction markets right now.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – The Soldier Who Bet $400K on Maduro2:30 – Trump Calls the World a Casino3:00 – A Major Platform Lobbies the CFTC5:05 – Introducing Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice)6:00 – From New Zealand Bookmaker to Full-Time Sharp Bettor14:00 – Getting Picked Off on Injury News20:00 – How Sharps Are Approaching Prediction Markets28:00 – The Viral Half Million Contract Order38:00 – How Much of His PNL Is on PMs48:27 – The Most Expensive Lesson Shipper Has Learned#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting
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  The Insider's Guide to Getting Hired at a Prediction Market 22.04.2026 47мин

  Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired by pitching a vision the company didn't even know it needed yet — and why both paths have one thing in common: initiative.From there it's a full insider breakdown: the org chart of a prediction market company, what each department actually looks for, the honest truth about originators (most people who think they are one, aren't), what makes a great trader vs. a great engineer in this space, and why dev relations might be the most underrated open door in the entire industry right now.The second half is a live mock interview — Henry puts Chris in the hot seat with real questions he uses to evaluate trading candidates, walking through position sizing, adverse selection, tick width, and how to think about the relationship between a market maker and an exchange. If you're trying to break into prediction markets, this is the episode.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – How Chris Got His Job at Novig3:40 – How Henry Got His Job at Novig6:30 – The #1 Piece of Advice for Breaking In8:50 – The Org Chart Explained14:00 – What Engineers Need to Know22:35 – The Hard Truth About Originators26:50 – What Is a Trader, Actually?28:35 – The Mock Interview38:29 – Position Sizing and Adverse Selection46:42 – Novig Is Hiring#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting