RenMac

Епизоде

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  RenMac Off-Script: There Is An Alternative 18.09.2026 37мин

  RenMac breaks down the Fed’s unanimous rate hike, why Kevin Warsh’s first move suggests the tightening cycle may have further to run, and what increasingly restrictive real rates could mean for markets and the economy. The team discusses a resilient consumer facing mounting pressure from higher food, energy and borrowing costs, the continued unwind in tech and momentum, and why 5% Treasury yields are creating a real alternative to equities. They also explore the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, the politics surrounding AI data centers, emerging-market opportunities, and what rising rates and shifting leadership could signal for the next phase of the market cycle.
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  RenMac Off-Script: The Great Separation 11.09.2026 42мин

  RenMac breaks down stubborn inflation and why the Fed may be forced to hike as higher real yields reshape markets beneath the surface. The team discusses weakening momentum and the rotation out of tech, opportunities in TIPS, escalating Middle East energy risks, and why the recent momentum crash may be entering a critical “separation” phase that reveals the market’s next leaders.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Hormuz, Hyperscalers & the Market* 03.09.2026 49мин

  Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen rejoins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, why oil prices have remained surprisingly contained, and how the conflict is testing U.S. military capacity and strategic credibility. The team explores the intensifying competition with China over critical minerals, AI and compute, the growing political backlash against hyperscalers and data centers, and what winning the AI race actually means. They also break down the historic unwind in momentum, why elevated inflation and middling growth are flashing a more cautious market-cycle signal, and how resilient credit markets and a still-positive equity trend are keeping the broader bull case intact.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Fed Swallows Whistle 28.08.2026 51мин

  RenMac is joined this week by Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist and co-host of The Market Huddle podcast to discuss why the Fed has run out of room to move before the midterms and what that means for bonds, gold, and the AI trade. The team explores why rising yields are a rational response to global deficits and the largest infrastructure build-out since the 1850s, why the People's Bank of China — not the Treasury — is the real driver of gold, and why the hyperscaler capex boom looks more like an earnings bubble than a price bubble. They also cover Bessent's buyback operations, widening credit spreads, the momentum unwind, tariffs, and Jackson Hole.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Breaking Glass 21.08.2026 49мин

  RenMac breaks down Treasury's move to double its long-end liquidity support ops to $4 billion, its turn from plumbing to arguing yields don't reflect fundamentals and how bill-funding those buys lands them on the Fed's sheet. The team also discusses why a 53-year high in capex intentions is credit-financed capacity that looks like growth until the cost of capital reprices, Oracle and Nvidia CDS at new highs, PMIs as a bad indicator for asset allocation and why P/Es are siren songs in the context of shooting failed momentum in the back.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Total Eclipse of the Hike 14.08.2026 45мин

  RenMac breaks down a July inflation picture that isn't cooperating (softer CPI, firmer PPI, and core PCE annualizing near 2.5%), and why the bond market is under-pricing the risk of a September hike. The team also discusses slowing consumer spending after a weak retail sales print, a tape where the trend holds in the face of the momentum unwind and the Leopold rebound, the Credit Card Competition Act's path onto the Clarity Act, AOC's rise in the betting markets, and the week ahead in Fed minutes.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Forecasts > Feelings* 06.08.2026 1ч 1мин

  Former CEA Chair and Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Steve Miran joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss why he sees potential growth running closer to 3% than 2% — on tax incentives, deregulation, and AI — and why a data-dependent Fed is "momentum trading" monetary policy rather than forecasting inflation a year out. The team breaks down AI capex draining tech free cash flow, the Warsh Fed's dissents and Waller's hawkish turn, a stronger yen and the mechanics of possible FX intervention. They also explore new S&P highs, Middle East uncertainty, and the week ahead in the CPI print.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Case Scenario 31.07.2026 41мин

  Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's dovish Fed hold. Neil Dutta argues the move reeks of a credibility problem that leaves the chair looking weak, with the long end selling off and a September hike increasingly likely as inflation—not growth—owns the Fed's reaction function. Jeff deGraaf puts a face on the momentum crash through the blow-up and rescue of Leopold's levered semis-versus-software trade, calling it a clearing event rather than the all-clear. The team also digs into rising global yields, energy's quiet leadership, tightening credit conditions, and Steve Pavlick's read on reconciliation, the debt limit, and the odds on the Clarity Act.
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  RenMac Off-Script: The First Crack 24.07.2026 45мин

  RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push inflation the wrong way and Warsh weighs moving in his honeymoon. The team also discusses the momentum crash and why the bounce is better sold than endorsed, real yields zapping gold and duration, $100 oil as the Iran conflict shuts the Red Sea, tariff maneuvering after Section 122's expiry, rotation into banks and healthcare, and the week ahead in the July 29 FOMC and core PCE.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Memorandum of Misunderstanding 17.07.2026 40мин

  RenMac breaks down the vicious unwind in the momentum trade, why a low headline VIX is masking the highest single-stock dispersion the team has ever measured, and how a cooler CPI print does little to stop the Fed conversation from tilting toward a September hike, with inflation, not growth, now owning the reaction function. The team also discusses rising Strait of Hormuz tensions and elevated oil, a looming 25% Brazil tariff, Korea's AI-driven rate hike, yen intervention risk, and the Washington theater around Fed leadership and congressional stock-trading rules.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Redistributing the Oxygen* 10.07.2026 57мин

  Big Technology podcast host Alex Kantrowitz joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss whether the AI buildout has quietly become the load-bearing pillar of the U.S. economy and what breaks if it stalls. The team breaks down why the compute crunch is separating clear winners from losers, why the semiconductor tape is flashing classic top-of-cycle signals, and why the productivity boom needed to justify the capex simply isn't showing up in the data. They also explore how real rates rather than inflation are tightening financial conditions, why the Warsh Fed is tilting hawkish toward a possible hike, and how a populist revolt against data centers and the escalating China race are reshaping the policy backdrop.
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  RenMac Off-Script: State of the Fed Disunion 02.07.2026 38мин

  RenMac is joined by banking and payments veteran Howard Mason and digs into a soft payroll report, Chair Warsh's price-stability regime shift, and firming real rates. The team questions how the Fed actually delivers on price stability while hawks fill the vacuum, and turns to a market cycle clock stuck in its worst zone, thinning semiconductor leadership, embers of private credit stress, the yen carry trade and the oil-and-gas round trip.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Flying Blind 26.06.2026 37мин

  RenMac breaks down a hawkish shift from the Fed and why higher real yields are reshaping market leadership beneath the surface. The team discusses Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic agenda, the rotation away from the Mag 7, mounting stress in private credit, the outlook for Iran and oil prices, and why improving market breadth is encouraging—but not yet an all-clear signal
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  RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Lets the Hawks Fly 19.06.2026 36мин

  RenMac breaks down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting — the most hawkish FOMC outcome on record by the move in the two-year yield — why falling oil won't pull the Fed off its tightening bias, and how rate hikes are now on the table as soon as July. The team also discusses the fragile Iran settlement, a firmer dollar, the Defense Production Act's reach into non-defense names, US-versus-ex-US equity leadership, and the week ahead in core PCE, Micron, and Fed speakers.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Rocket Man 12.06.2026 49мин

  RenMac breaks down the SpaceX IPO frenzy, why history suggests caution around the most anticipated market debuts, and how stronger inflation and labor data are shifting the Fed conversation toward a more hawkish stance. The team also discusses private credit liquidity concerns, rising real rates, the Iran outlook, and whether market leadership is finally broadening beyond a handful of crowded trades
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  RenMac Off-Script: Small Ball 05.06.2026 32мин

  RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team digs into the technical setup in regionals and biotech as potential breakout catalysts, the SpaceX IPO mechanics and where retail may get trapped, and how to distinguish a durable market super cycle from a dangerous earnings bubble given historically narrow leadership. They also tackle a stronger-than-expected payrolls print that reshuffled the Fed outlook, Neil Dutta's skepticism on AI-driven productivity gains, the FHFA/DNI reshuffle and what it means for Fannie and Freddie, and whether the Trump-China relationship has turned a corner on trade and Iran.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Shoot ‘em in the Back 29.05.2026 40мин

  RenMac discusses the equity markets at all-time highs as signs of late-cycle stress accumulate beneath the surface and capital chases the parabola in tech. The team breaks down the historic tech-vs-healthcare disparity in their SERM excess-return model, the tops forming in payments, financials, and crypto, and the Bermuda Triangle of private credit, life insurance, and reinsurance that could become the next pressure point. They also explore Iran's fragile 60-day ceasefire, a global rate-hike cycle that may be doing the Fed's work and the wealth-effect grip on consumer spending.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Seeking Crypto Clarity 22.05.2026 50мин

  Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset manager Grayscale Investments, joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the Clarity Act's path through Congress and how stablecoins are challenging banks' monopoly on digital payments. The team also digs into the AI boom's underappreciated reach across the U.S. economy, the breakout in real yields, narrowing market breadth, the Fed's increasingly narrow policy path, and geopolitical pressure points from the Strait of Hormuz to Cuba.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Around the World with Ozan 15.05.2026 50мин

  RenMac welcomes Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Global Macro Ozan Tarman for a deep dive on rising yields, “warflation,” and whether the bond vigilantes are back. The team debates whether the move above 4.50% in the 10-year marks a regime shift, why AI is still carrying equities despite mounting macro stress, and how Iran, Taiwan, and Trump’s China trip are reshaping global markets. They also unpack Kevin Warsh’s difficult Fed setup, crowded positioning across rates and FX, private credit risks, and why housing and consumer may be flashing warning signs beneath the surface.We also welcome you to download our report: RenMac BDC Primer
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  RenMac Off-Script: Fine… For Now 08.05.2026 34мин

  RenMac breaks down a labor market that remains stable but uneven, with AI and data center investment continuing to drive hiring, manufacturing, and market leadership while housing, services, and consumer-sensitive sectors soften beneath the surface. The team discusses why slowing wage growth and rising gasoline prices leave the Fed stuck on hold, how semis and tech are entering historic “bubble” territory, and why private credit stress, Iran tensions, and China negotiations could become the next catalysts for volatility.