Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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  Why Should We Care About the Defense Secretary Who Won’t Back Down from China? | with Secretary Gilberto Teodoro 18.09.2026 1ч 1мин

  Onstage at the Seoul Defense Dialogue, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro was taking a question about Chinese coercion in the South China Sea when a forum staffer handed him a note, handwritten on hotel stationery, from China’s delegation. He decided to read it out loud, dismantling it line by line, and then said he would keep it as “a memento of how desperate China is.” That clip rocketed around the world. Secretary Teodoro joins co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to explain that the note was one move in a pattern he has watched across five regional forums: off-topic “alternative lectures” delivered instead of questions, people posing as journalists trying to make him lose his temper on camera, and delegations that avoid the panels they cannot control. His read is an active attempt “to make a more Sinocentric world,” and he points to Palau as another example of another country being told it’s too small to object. On Beijing’s insults, Teodoro is blunt. China’s foreign affairs ministry berated him and other Filipino officials who push back for being “a handful of grandstanding buffoons”, though its official English-language translation softened the phrase to “certain individuals”. His verdict: “It’s duplicity, plain and simple. That’s what they are. Not as a people, mind you, but as a Party”. He traces the method to Mao’s destruction of Peng Dehuai and Xi’s purge of more than 200 senior figures, describing “muscle behind the cotton cladding.”Asked whether any channel exists to cool an incident at sea, Teodoro reveals he shut his department’s hotline with Beijing down: the calls became attempts to co-opt his people, with “neither discipline nor structure.” Asked what a Code of Conduct would need to be worth signing, his answer runs six words. Teodoro calls Chinese fuel and fertilizer shipments a “carefully laid down trap of dependence to make it look as kindness,” designed to produce “some kind of Stockholm Syndrome.” He walks through the illegal steel-plant network his department has raided: donated obsolete furnaces, radioactive scrap, substandard structural steel, a self-admitted fake Filipino operator, and a thread running to Singapore’s largest money-laundering case. He responds to the Chinese university report claiming the Batanes Islands belong to China and explains why Chinese instructors teaching Filipino children matter more than the paper did. Plus, what Ukraine taught him (“reserves, reserves, reserves”), why he cannot imagine a Taiwan conflict that spares a country 90 kilometers away with 200,000 citizens working there, why the Philippines is talking about an expeditionary navy by 2050, the gap in Philippine espionage law he wants closed, and how he handles it when others float his name as a future president. Secretary Teodoro’s bottom line: peace “is not a free dividend. It is purchased, it is bought, and it is enforced.”Follow Sec. Teodoro, Jr. on FacebookFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if China Controls the World’s Rare Earths Supply? | with Melissa Sanderson 11.09.2026 50мин

  Melissa Sanderson returns to unpack why China’s grip on the world’s supply of rare earths has become one of the most consequential economic stories in the Indo-Pacific, and why a deadline just weeks away could reshape supply chains for everything from smartphones to fighter jets. Mel spent 21 years in the U.S. Foreign Service before moving into mining, and now serves as co-chair of the Critical Minerals Institute and a board member of American Rare Earths.Mel opens with a promise: she’ll define rare earths, and then you can promptly forget the definition. What matters is what they do. A small handful of these elements make the magnets inside laptops, cell phones, electric vehicles, wind turbines, data centers, robotics, and missile guidance systems. America’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which carries hundreds of pounds of rare earth content per aircraft, can’t fly without them.Mel explains how Beijing built its dominance over four decades: large domestic deposits, a processing and manufacturing chain developed deliberately alongside them, and aggressive acquisition of mining concessions abroad through infrastructure-for-resources deals she calls neocolonial. Washington is now running the same playbook - creating friction with a European Union that accuses the U.S. of using its checkbook to crowd European buyers out of the market.But the real chokepoint isn’t the rock in the ground. China mines roughly 60% of the rare earths used in magnets and controls 91% of refining and 94% of magnet manufacturing. Everything between the mine and the finished magnet is the issue.When asked whether U.S. government equity stakes in mining companies count as industrial policy, Mel says that’s just market economics. Real industrial policy starts with the end user and works backward to the mine. What America is doing instead is “shotgunning resources”: building processing plants with no secured supply to run through them.Beijing’s suspension of its expanded export controls expires November 10, and the measures snap back automatically unless China acts. Meanwhile, new rules bar Chinese-linked materials from the entire defense magnet supply chain starting January 1. Mel’s arithmetic is brutal: the deadline is months away; the fastest U.S. mine-and-processing build is three to four years.Her bottom line? “No mine, no cell phone.” And for now, we need to play nice with China on rare earths.Be sure to subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Melissa Sanderson on LinkedInFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if the Pacific Islands Are Playing Both Sides? | with David Capie 04.09.2026 49мин

  As Pacific Islands Forum leaders gathered in Palau, one of the last nations recognizing Taiwan, five members skipped sending their top leaders. Meanwhile, a June survey found New Zealanders now rate the United States a greater threat than China, to which our guest said warmth toward Washington had “fallen off a cliff.”Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by David Capie, Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, who explains why views of both great powers have shifted. Warmth toward China had eroded for years because of its actions toward the South China Sea, Hong Kong, and the Uyghurs, as well as its expanding Pacific presence since the 2022 Solomon Islands agreement. Then a PLA Navy task group circumnavigated Australia and conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, diverting commercial flights. Strategy documents are read by “foreign policy nerds,” Capie notes, but when flights carrying “grandma home to the Gold Coast” get rerouted, the public notices. What flipped the ranking was 18 months of U.S. policy, such as tariff whiplash, Greenland and Canada rhetoric, and USAID’s closure leaving perceptions of America “in the freezer” while Beijing now pitches itself as the responsible, predictable partner.He maps New Zealand’s foreign policy reset ahead of November’s election: leaning into Australia and Five Eyes partners, deeper security cooperation with Japan, new partnerships across Southeast Asia and a recalibrated India relationship. On the Cook Islands, Capie traces how Wellington’s relations with Rarotonga had soured over a China partnership agreed without adequate consultation, the aid pause that followed, and the new Declaration on Defence and Security, but then unpacks the surprise U.S.–New Zealand port project at Penrhyn and its link to seabed minerals.On the missing PIF leaders, his verdict is “a little from column A and a little from column B”. Chinese pressure is real, but so are local dynamics like the Solomon Islands no-confidence vote that pulled Prime Minister Wale back home. He warns against “always seeing strategic machinations where often there are local dynamics at play.”Australia’s Ocean of Peace Alliance with Fiji prompts hard questions about militarization and whether Canberra and Wellington praise PIF centrality while building a parallel architecture. That tension showed after China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, its first ever into international open waters. Leaders spoke frankly, but no collective PIF statement emerged. Keeping China out of the Pacific Islands, Capie says, would be “a fool’s errand” – the real concern is its expanding security footprint. His challenge to Wellington, Canberra, and Washington: lift your game and treat transnational crime and climate change as priorities in their own right.Plus: pavlova, flat whites, and why David won’t perform a haka.Follow David Capie on X, @davidcapieFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About a Couple of Average Guys Targeted by Beijing’s Propaganda Machine? | with Jay Tarriela and Ray Powell 28.08.2026 1ч 20мин

  Could Scarborough Shoal become China’s next artificial-island outpost? Can transparency effectively counter gray-zone coercion at sea? Why did scholars from seven Chinese universities suddenly claim that Batanes, the Philippines’ northernmost and very much inhabited island province, belongs to China? And why has the Chinese embassy in Manila spent so much time attacking a Philippine Coast Guard officer, and one of our own podcast co-hosts, online?In this special crossover episode, the usual roles are reversed. Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela of the Philippine Coast Guard, a two-time Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? guest and a leading champion of Manila’s maritime transparency campaign, takes the host chair on his podcast, Just the Truth. Recorded in Manila, he puts Why Should We Care co-host Ray Powell in the guest seat.Jay and Ray examine what happens when China’s pressure at sea is paired with political warfare on land. They discuss the risk that Scarborough Shoal could become Beijing’s next fortified outpost, the sudden claims over Batanes as Chinese coast guard vessels push east of the First Island Chain, and whether publicly documenting water cannons, ramming, swarming, and other coercive acts changes China’s behavior, or at least builds the national resilience and international backing needed for a long-term resistance.They also explore why the Philippines has embraced transparency while many Southeast Asian neighbors still prefer quiet diplomacy, how independent journalists aboard Philippine Coast Guard ships have helped make maritime encounters impossible to ignore, and why the political contest over facts, images, and public opinion may be inseparable from the contest taking place on the water.Jay then lightens the mood with some of his favorite “mean tweets” about Ray: that he is an American propagandist, or secretly Jay’s CIA boss, or directing a half-billion-dollar U.S. government information operation against China… a windfall Ray’s wife would very much like to locate.It is a candid, sometimes irreverent conversation about territorial claims, information warfare, Philippine agency, and why Beijing appears so determined to discredit the people pointing cameras at its actions.Be sure to subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela at the West Philippine Sea Transparence Office on Facebook, on LinkedIn or on X, @jaytaryelaFollow “Just the Truth” on the Philippine Information Agency’s YouTube channelFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if China Dominates Maritime East Asia? | with Brent Sadler 21.08.2026 52мин

  If China controls maritime East Asia, what would that mean for Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, global trade, and U.S. security?In Episode 163, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso speak with retired U.S. Navy Captain Brent Sadler, a career submariner, former U.S. defense attaché in Malaysia, Heritage Foundation Senior Fellow and author of two books: U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century and Naval Power in Action: Seizing the Initiative in the New Cold War with China.Sadler’s answer is blunt: China is exercising growing control over maritime East Asia, as Beijing has spent decades building the military, commercial, and political leverage to do exactly that. He says this is not just a question of aircraft carriers, missiles, and hull counts, but also about China’s strategic commercial footprint in ports, shipping and repair infrastructure, distant-water fishing fleets, maritime militia, and the China Coast Guard.Ray and Jim ask what it means that China’s coast guard vessels are operating east of Taiwan. Are these deployments preparation for a possible blockade? Why are fishing fleets moving in organized formations? And how could Beijing use gray-zone coercion to change the status quo before anyone agrees that a crisis has begun?The conversation also examines the recent China-Russia naval exercises and potential for submarine technology transfer, Russian pressure on Japan around the Kuril Islands, and Beijing’s efforts to turn even limited naval interactions with countries such as Indonesia into political and propaganda victories. Sadler explains why Southeast Asian leaders’ rhetoric must be weighed against what matters on the water: maritime rights, military exercises, commercial ties, and freedom of navigation.Finally, Sadler assesses the military balance approaching the much-discussed 2027 window of war concerns, China’s Taiwan contingency preparations, gaps in America’s carrier presence in the Indo-Pacific, U.S. shipbuilding deficits, the future of unmanned vessels, and what Ukraine’s drone war may mean for Taiwan and regional partners.Sadler’s larger warning is that maritime control is no longer just a contest of fleets, but a contest of coercion, commerce, access, and political will; one in which Beijing can test regional governments, reshape behavior below the threshold of war, and learn whether America and its allies will respond before temporary pressure becomes a permanent advantage.Follow Brent Sadler at the Heritage Foundation, on LinkedIn or on X, @brentdsadlerFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedInFollow Jim on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia
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  Why Should We Care if China Just Fired a Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile into the South Pacific? | with Kathryn Paik 14.08.2026 51мин

  On July 6, a Chinese submarine fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile out of the South China Sea. It likely overflew parts of the Philippines before coming down in waters between Tuvalu, Nauru and Solomon Islands, inside the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. The 14 Pacific Island countries in whose region it landed were almost entirely skipped in Beijing's notifications. A month later, when Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers met in Fiji, two of its members held up the response text.Kathryn Paik of the Center for Strategic and International Studies joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to explain what Beijing was signaling, and why the Pacific Island Countries couldn't answer with one voice. Paik wrote the first-ever U.S. Pacific Partnership Strategy at the National Security Council, following 23 years in the Marine Corps as a helicopter pilot and as a military attaché in Indonesia.In this episode:Why the missile's route mattered more than its range: launched from the South China Sea, overflying a U.S. treaty ally and landing in a declared nuclear-free zone hours after Australia signed its fourth-ever mutual defense treaty with Fiji. Paik's read: the message was that China "can militarily touch you anywhere it wants."How Nauru and Kiribati, two countries that recently switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, frustrated an 18-member consensus bloc. Jim presses the obvious counter — the U.S. and France tested here for decades — and Paik explains what makes this launch different.How sports became a national security instrument in a deal to put Papua New Guinea in Australia’s National Rugby League, and the commitment on security ties with Beijing that came attached.Australia's diplomatic surge: mutual defense treaties with PNG and Fiji, plus bespoke security pacts with Tuvalu, Nauru and Vanuatu.Why Kiribati patrols an ocean territory larger than India with a population of roughly 140,000, and what that means for fisheries, the seabed and undersea cables.Paik on why U.S. Pacific policy has always been somebody's side job: "In Australia they have 300 people in their Office of the Pacific. We have about a dozen." The 2025 damage to U.S. standing, including USAID's closure, tariffs and no resident ambassadors across the 14 Pacific Island countries. Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Kathryn Paik on LinkedIn or X, @KathrynPaikFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About if the Ocean Floor is Now a Battleground? | with Trent Fulcher 07.08.2026 51мин

  Nearly all global internet traffic quietly moves through fiber-optic undersea cables on the seabed, yet most people still think of the internet as “the cloud.” In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Trent Fulcher, CEO of Starboard Maritime Intelligence, to explore what he calls “the end of the benign seabed.”Drawing on real cases, from a suspicious cable cut off Taiwan to fishing fleets and shadow tankers across key maritime chokepoints, Trent explains how vessels can mask their identities, spoof locations, and drag anchors over critical infrastructure while hiding behind flags of convenience. He breaks down why around 95% of internet traffic still relies on subsea cables, why repair delays can stretch to 45 days, and how new data fusion and behavioral analytics are shifting the industry from reactive incident response to proactive prevention.The conversation digs into who is most vulnerable (from Pacific Island states to cable-dependent hubs like New Zealand and Singapore), how governments and cable operators are building joint defenses, and what smaller Indo-Pacific nations can realistically do with limited navies and budgets.If you care about maritime security, great-power competition over Taiwan, or the future of the oceans, this episode will change how you think about the internet and the battle now being waged on the ocean floor.Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Trent Fulcher on LinkedIn Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if the Gray Zone War is Heating Up Again in East Asia? 31.07.2026 44мин

  Days before ASEAN's foreign ministers landed in Manila, a Chinese Coast Guard sailor clubbed a Filipino sailor bloody at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing normally lowers the temperature before diplomatic set pieces. This time it raised it, and nobody outside China knows whether that was a local commander improvising or a deliberate message.Co-host Ray Powell was in Manila for all of it, and this week he and Jim Carouso work through why the gray zone war across East Asia is heating up again and why it reaches well beyond a few contested reefs.The Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026, and this month hosted regional foreign ministers as well as China’s Wang Yi and America’s Marco Rubio. Ray and Jim work through why a quarter-century of Code of Conduct negotiations still lead nowhere: China's nine-dash line claim is maximalist; its 1996 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ratification carved out "historic rights" incompatible with UNCLOS itself; it rejected the UNCLOS-prescribed 2016 arbitration outright; and it profits from talks that never end, or from a code weak enough to push UNCLOS aside. Ray owns the “code-of-conduct pessimist” label and explains why.On the related political warfare front, Ray's new report traces how the CCP's United Front Work Department has captured Chinese-language education in the Philippines: teachers supplied through so-called "blood transfusion" and "blood generation" plans; Beijing-supplied materials; career pipelines into Chinese state firms; and how much if it homes back to Jinan University, whose Center for Philippine Studies-hosted symposium recently declared the Philippines’ northernmost islands to be China’s. Finally, the Bashi breakout: China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan along the Japan-Philippines EEZ boundary, radio challenges to inbound shipping and Beijing's boast of "inspecting" more than a hundred vessels. Ray's question: will we look back and say Taiwan's quarantine actually began here – not with an open declaration, but one incremental squeeze at a time, as more and more ship captains quietly decide that complying is cheaper than resisting?Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if China Won’t Restrain its Flood of Exports? | with Wendy Cutler 24.07.2026 49мин

  China posted a record $1.2 trillion global trade surplus in 2025, and its export machine is still accelerating. From electric vehicles and batteries to electronics and household goods, Chinese products are pouring into markets across Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.Consumers may welcome better products at lower prices, but what happens when local manufacturers cannot compete, workers lose their jobs, and countries become dependent on Beijing for essential goods?This week, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator who spent nearly three decades at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.Wendy explains how government support allows Chinese companies to keep producing even when markets are saturated. Beijing rejects the idea that it has an overcapacity problem, and Wendy argues that negotiations cannot succeed when the two sides cannot even agree that a problem exists. Her solution is a coordinated response by the major economies receiving these exports.In this episode:How China’s industrial policies help its companies outlast foreign competitorsWhy U.S. tariffs redirected Chinese exports toward Europe and Southeast Asia instead of slowing them downHow cheap imports can destroy local businesses, eliminate jobs, and create dangerous dependenciesWhy the U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and Southeast Asia must act together to change Beijing’s calculationsHow China weaponizes its control of critical minerals, rare earths, and permanent magnetsWhy Washington’s tariffs against allies could undermine the coalition it needsHow developing economies can defend local industries without losing access to the Chinese marketWhether the fragile U.S.-China trade truce can survive as both sides test its limitsWhy today’s low prices could become tomorrow’s strategic vulnerabilitiesWendy’s candid reflections on three decades at the negotiating tableSubscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Wendy Cutler on at the Asia Society Policy Institute, on LinkedIn or on X, @wendyscutlerFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if China is Salami-Slicing Its Way Out of the First Island Chain? | with Brad Lendon 17.07.2026 50мин

  For the first time, China's coast guard is asserting sovereignty over waters beyond the First Island Chain and out in the open Pacific, far to the east of Taiwan. To justify it, a hastily assembled group of Chinese academics has suddenly declared that the Philippines' northernmost (and very much inhabited) Batanes island province actually belongs to China.Is this a dangerous new escalation or just another day in East Asia’s highly contested maritime gray zone?This week, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso flip the script and put a reporter in the guest chair: Brad Lendon, CNN's Senior News Desk Reporter for Global Military Affairs, who's covered China's maritime rise for over a decade and authored the June 25 story that sparked this conversation, “‘Salami slicing’: How China is trying to increase control in the Pacific”Brad makes the case that this "salami slicing" is nothing new. Beijing has spent years applying steady, below-the-threshold pressure using white-hulled coast guard ships rather than navy gray-hulls. But now those ships are radio-challenging commercial vessels east of Taiwan, mapping the seabed and settling in for what looks like a permanent presence outside the First Island Chain.In this episode:Why coast guard "law enforcement" ships are a more insidious tool for asserting sovereignty than warshipsWhat China's radio challenges to commercial ships could be rehearsing, and Ray's "boa constrictor" warning about a soft quarantine of Taiwan already beginningHow the out-of-nowhere Batanes claim fits Beijing's long-game strategyWhether the Japan-Philippine maritime delimitation talks were a real trigger or just a convenient pretextWhat it all means for the U.S. defense strategy built around the First Island Chain, and whether it's the right tool for a non-military threatBrad's unforgettable story from the bridge of a Canadian frigate threading the Taiwan Strait at midnightA sharp, practitioner-level look at how the map of the Western Pacific is being quietly redrawn one slice at a time.Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Brad Lendon’s reporting on CNN or on X, @BradLendonFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About Rising Dissent in China? | with Kevin Slaten 10.07.2026 55мин

  We picture China as a place where no one dares speak out, but the reality is quite different. In 2025, despite one of the most sophisticated censorship machines on earth, workers protested over unpaid wages, homebuyers demanded stalled apartments, and rural communities pushed back against land dispossession. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Kevin Slaten, who leads Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor, the only public database tracking protests across China, from its office in Taipei. Slaten’s team recorded about 40 to 50 percent more dissent in 2025 than the year before, including the largest pre-Lunar New Year labor protest peak the project has ever recorded. The twist: US budget cuts had recently knocked the project offline for four months, and it still came back with a skeleton crew to record its highest numbers yet. Fewest resources ever, most dissent ever recorded.Slaten explains what more than 15,000 cases reveal about the real China beneath the propaganda--an economy under strain, a “social contract” that may never have been one, and why even “local” protests matter politically in an authoritarian system. He also unpacks who protests and why, where Beijing’s red lines fall, and how protest pressure can actually produce real concessions, from policy reversals to quiet legal changes.Key topics:Why dissent is rising even as China tightens censorshipWho is protesting: workers, homebuyers, rural residents, and moreHow Beijing decides what to tolerate, censor, or crushThe 2022 White Paper protests: anomaly or symptom?A school bullying case that spiraled into crowds chanting “we want democracy”If you want to understand where China is really heading, pay attention to the people already demanding change.Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Kevin Slaten on X, @KevinSlaten, or on LinkedIn Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if a U.S.-India Alliance is Achievable? | with Kurt Campbell 03.07.2026 53мин

  What if the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century is the one Washington is actively damaging? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Kurt Campbell - former Deputy Secretary of State, President Biden's "Asia czar," a key figure in building the modern Quad, and founder of The Asia Group - to ask whether the U.S. and India can move beyond damage control toward something far more ambitious: a new kind of alliance.Last year, U.S.-India ties hit their lowest point in a quarter century: 50% tariffs over India's Russian oil purchases, a tilt toward Pakistan, and a sharp breakdown of trust. Yet at that very low point, Campbell and Jake Sullivan published "The Case for a U.S. Alliance With India" in Foreign Affairs, warning Washington risked driving India into its adversaries' arms.Drawing on decades of firsthand diplomacy, Campbell offers a candid insider's read on what went wrong and what might still go right. He reveals why Pakistan has out-maneuvered India in navigating the Trump White House, why his own successor's speech in Delhi drew audible gasps from the audience, and why India's celebrated "strategic autonomy" masks a quiet but unmistakable tilt toward the West.In this episode:Why Campbell calls India America's most consequential 21st-century partner, and what "escape velocity" meansHow he and Sullivan are trying to recast what "alliance" means for a country that will never host U.S. basesHow Pakistan adapted to Trump-era diplomacy more effectively than IndiaThe surprising story of how India went from reluctant Quad participant to its driving forceHow India quietly cut its reliance on Russian arms from 80% to under 40%Campbell's new Asia Group report on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and why it's hitting the Indo-Pacific harder than markets expectHis warning that the South China Sea, not Taiwan, is the likeliest flashpoint for miscalculationFollow and subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Kurt Campbell at The Asia Group or on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About Why Journalists are Leaving China? | with Yoko Kubota 26.06.2026 52мин

  The day her BYD rideshare driver told her the dashboard screen was a “national secret” … that's when Wall Street Journal correspondent Yoko Kubota knew China had really changed, and maybe it was time to think about leaving.What does the world lose when fewer foreign journalists are reporting from inside China? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell (35-year military veteran) and Jim Carouso (former senior U.S. diplomat) sit down with Yoko Kubota, who spent eight years in Beijing before leaving China and writing a striking farewell column about a society growing alarmingly suspicious of outsiders.From that small, telling BYD moment, Yoko traces how a tightening espionage law, national-security messaging, and rising nationalism seeped into everyday life. As a Japanese reporter for an American paper, she also describes the anti-Japanese sentiment she and her family encountered, from a parents' school chat group to the phrases her young son began repeating, and how the 2024 attacks on Japanese children in Suzhou and Shenzhen deepened her fears.The conversation also digs into her business beat:Why on-the-ground reporting from inside China still matters and what we lose as it dries upWhy China can be both increasingly confident and deeply wary of outside scrutinyHow China's EV industry went from a punchline to a global powerhouse, and the "zombie" carmakers left in its wakeWhy the race for self-driving cars may come down to regulation as much as technologyWith the press corps thinning – underscored by the recent expulsion of New York Times reporter Vivian Wang – this is an on-the-ground account of an increasingly inaccessible country that still, as Yoko puts it, "won't go away from our lives."Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Yoko Kubota on her page at the Wall Street Journal, on LinkedIn or on X, @Kubota_Yoko Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care How Indo-Pacific Allies Manage a Volatile and Distracted America? | with Marise Payne 19.06.2026 52мин

  Washington is engaging plenty with its Indo-Pacific allies these days … just not always on the things they want, and too often on things they don't. So how do savvy allies steer that relationship when the world's most powerful partner feels less predictable than ever?To find out, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Marise Payne, Australia's former Defence Minister and Foreign Minister. Marise helped launch AUKUS and grow the Quad, and navigated the first Trump administration from both chairs. Now a distinguished visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, Payne brings rare insider perspective on how middle powers keep America engaged and what they must build for themselves when it drifts.In a wide-ranging conversation, Payne unpacks:Why "fewer Shangri-Las, more submarines" sets up a false choice, and why showing up still mattersThe AUKUS reality check: what the shift from the "optimal pathway" means, and the social license challenge facing CanberraWhether Pillar One is now on a "suboptimal pathway," and the case for driving Pillar Two harderHow the Quad found its feet again after COVID, and why the New Delhi foreign ministers' meeting mattersReassuring a skeptical ASEAN on nuclear submarines, and the relationship-first diplomacy that made it workChina's "do as I say, not as I do" stance on Japan's remilitarizationThe contrast between leading Defence and Foreign Affairs: "straight lines" versus "grasping at wisps of smoke"It's a practitioner's masterclass in alliance management for an era of strategic uncertainty. Essential listening for anyone tracking US-China competition, AUKUS, national defense, diplomacy and the future of the Indo-Pacific.Follow Marise Payne on Facebook Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if Vietnam is Swinging Toward China? | with Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang 12.06.2026 50мин

  Is Vietnam quietly drifting into China's orbit, and what does that mean for the United States and the future of Southeast Asia? Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang explains why Hanoi is hedging harder than ever because, as the Vietnamese saying goes, "when the buffaloes and oxen lock horns, the mosquitoes and flies suffer."In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Dr. Giang, Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, to unpack his provocative Carnegie essay, "Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction." Giang argues that Vietnam isn't becoming pro-China, it's hedging in a world where US policy feels unpredictable and China is offering concrete benefits: market access, infrastructure, technology, and political reassurance.The conversation moves from geopolitics to economics: US tariffs, transshipment concerns, Vietnam's export boom, and the risk of being crushed between Washington and Beijing. Giang explains Vietnam's delicate formula: stay close enough to China to manage the relationship, but distant enough to preserve its independence.Ray and Jim also dig into Vietnam's defense strategy and its slow move beyond Russian weapons, then go inside Vietnamese politics under General Secretary Tô Lâm, whose consolidation of power is making foreign policy faster, more personal, and more ambitious.In this episode:Why Vietnam is one of Asia's most important "swing states"US tariffs, transshipment, and Vietnam's export boomChina's high-speed rail and technology offerVietnam's arms diversification beyond RussiaTô Lâm's consolidation of power and the "Blazing Furnace" anti-corruption campaignVietnam's reaction to the Trump-Xi summitSubscribe for weekly Indo-Pacific analysis from a former US military officer and a former US diplomat who've spent their careers in the region.Follow Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang on LinkedIn or on X, @khacgiangFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey 05.06.2026 51мин

  Japan sits just 68 miles from Taiwan, while the Philippines is even closer at 61. As one guest puts it, “You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.” That geography is exactly why three countries - the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines - are quietly building what may become the backbone of deterrence in the Western Pacific.In this episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Lisa Curtis, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and research assistant Ryan Claffey to discuss their report: “U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation: The Bedrock of a New U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy.”The conversation covers:Why the First Island Chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, is the most strategically consequential geography in the world todayHow a bankrupt Subic Bay shipyard nearly fell into Chinese hands and is now being transformed into a military-commercial hub central to U.S. forward postureThe expansion of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in northern Luzon and what permanent missile deployments in Batanes would mean for deterrence across the Luzon StraitWhether Trump’s transactional approach to Beijing and the prospect of a trade-focused summit could undermine allied solidarityPhilippine political risks, including the Sara Duterte faction and what a change in Manila’s leadership could mean for the allianceJapan’s growing security role under Prime Minister Takaichi, from record defense spending to missile deployments across the Southwest IslandsThe race for critical minerals, the Luzon Economic Corridor, and how economic resilience underpins the security architectureWhy this trilateral could become the foundation for a broader networked deterrence strategy across the Indo-PacificWhether you’re following the South China Sea, Taiwan, U.S.-China competition, Japan’s security pivot, or the future of Indo-Pacific alliances, this episode breaks down why the U.S.-Japan-Philippines triangle may become one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships.👉 Follow Lisa Curtis on on LinkedIn or X, @LisaCurtisDC; follow Ryan Claffey on LinkedIn or X, @RyanHClaffey 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if Energy Dependence Undermines Southeast Asia’s Quest for Agency? | with Gita Wirjawan 29.05.2026 51мин

  Indonesia’s former trade minister Gita Wirjawan - Stanford visiting scholar and host of the Endgame podcast - joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Southeast Asia and why it is more than just an oil shock.With a significant share of the region’s energy flowing through this narrow chokepoint, the disruption is exposing how vulnerable Southeast Asia really is. Most countries hold only weeks to a couple of months of fuel reserves, and governments like Indonesia - already facing higher-than-expected oil prices - are being forced into difficult tradeoffs between subsidies, social programs, and fiscal stability.Gita explains why countries like the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are particularly exposed, and why switching energy suppliers is far more complicated than it sounds. He also walks through how rising fuel costs ripple quickly into everyday life, especially in archipelagic economies where higher transport costs can drive up food prices and strain household budgets.The conversation goes beyond the immediate crisis to explore deeper structural challenges, including limited fiscal space, reliance on foreign investment, weak regulatory environments, and gaps in technical capacity. Gita argues that these factors make it harder for Southeast Asia to attract the capital needed to strengthen its energy security and long-term resilience.Looking ahead, the discussion turns to whether this crisis could become a turning point. While renewable energy is becoming cheaper and more viable, scaling it across the region will require massive investment and stronger governance. The episode closes by asking whether Southeast Asia can use this moment to assert greater agency, or whether it will remain dependent on forces beyond its control.👉 Follow Gita Wirjawan on YouTube or on X, @GWirjawan👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if North Korea's "Little Rocket Man" is Firing Off Missiles Again? | with Ankit Panda 22.05.2026 51мин

  While U.S. attention has been consumed by wars in the Middle East and Europe, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is expanding his nuclear arsenal, testing missiles from land and sea, and locking in a new strategic partnership with Russia. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Ankit Panda - Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, co‑host of the Asia Geopolitics podcast at The Diplomat, and one of the world’s leading experts on North Korea’s nuclear and missile forces - to unpack what’s really going on in Pyongyang and why it matters far beyond the Korean Peninsula.Ankit explains why North Korea is now America’s “third nuclear adversary,” with intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland and the lowest threshold for nuclear use of any nuclear‑armed state on Earth. He traces how Kim’s testing program shifted from cautious development to high‑tempo nuclear war exercises, including tactical nuclear weapons aimed squarely at U.S. and South Korean forces in the region.The conversation digs into the deepening Russia-North Korea military partnership, the implications of the new Choe Hyon‑class destroyer and submarine programs, and the stability‑instability paradox that could make conventional clashes more likely as Pyongyang’s deterrent matures. Ankit also lays out his argument for a U.S. policy shift from denuclearization to “stable coexistence,” explains why Washington already treats Kim as a nuclear peer in practice, and warns of the growing risk that South Korea could break from the Non‑Proliferation Treaty and pursue its own bomb.If you care about U.S. extended deterrence, the future of the Indo‑Pacific security order, North Korea-Russia cooperation, the South Korea nuclear debate, or the rising risk of nuclear crisis in Northeast Asia, this is a conversation you need to hear!👉 Follow Ankit Panda on LinkedIn or on X, @nktpnd👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About the U.S.-Philippine Alliance? with AMB MaryKay Carlson 20.05.2026 50мин

  In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson, who led America’s embassy in Manila from July 2022 to January 2026, one of the most consequential periods in the modern history of the U.S.-Philippine alliance.Ambassador Carlson takes us inside the alliance at a moment of dramatic transformation: the 75th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea, and the Philippines’ year as ASEAN Chair under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.. She walks us through the most dangerous flashpoints in the West Philippine Sea: the June 2024 ramming at Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) that cost a Filipino sailor his thumb, and the August 2025 Scarborough Shoal incident in which a Chinese Coast Guard cutter collided with its own PLA Navy destroyer while chasing a Philippine vessel.We dig into the strategic geography that makes the Philippines irreplaceable to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy; the largest Balikatan exercise in history; the expansion of EDCA sites; the new $2.5 billion Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act; the new Luzon Economic Corridor (with Japan); the U.S.-Philippines 123 civil nuclear agreement; and the 19% Trump tariff Carlson openly wishes had been much lower. She offers a candid read on China’s Ambassador Huang Xilian’s successor, Jing Quan, the limits of the ASEAN Code of Conduct, and what actually deters Beijing’s gray-zone aggression in the South China Sea.If you follow U.S.-China competition, the U.S.-Philippines alliance, ASEAN, Philippine politics, the Marcos administration, Indo-Pacific strategy, the South China Sea, or U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration, this is essential listening from someone who lived it up close.👉 Follow AMB Carlson on X, @MaryKayCarlson👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About How to Prevent a War over Taiwan? | with Dr. Eyck Freymann 15.05.2026 51мин

  What if China could take Taiwan without firing a single missile? In this episode, Dr. Eyck Freymann explains how Beijing's primary strategy isn't a cross-strait invasion - it's a gray-zone "quarantine" that could leave Taipei and Washington with no good options.Dr. Freymann, a Hoover Institution Fellow and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down why Taiwan is the central strategic question of our era, and why the United States still doesn't have a plan to deter Xi Jinping’s ambitions to take the island.Freymann argues that Taiwan’s importance rests on three pillars: its production of 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors powering AI, its position anchoring the First Island Chain that constrains China’s navy, and its role in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order.In this episode, we talk to Eyck about:•⁠ ⁠The quarantine scenario: why Beijing might simply declare that all ships and aircraft entering Taiwan must clear Chinese customs first.•⁠ ⁠Why TSMC’s Arizona and Japan fabs are generations behind and can’t replace what’s in Taiwan.•⁠ ⁠Xi Jinping’s “national rejuvenation” project and why Taiwan is the keystone in the arch.•⁠ ⁠Structured ambiguity: Freymann’s original concept for countering China’s gray-zone salami slicing.•⁠ ⁠Avalanche decoupling: a realistic plan to reduce dangerous economic dependencies on China before a crisis hits.If you care about US-China competition, AI, semiconductors, or whether war can still be prevented - this is essential listening.👉 Follow Dr. Eyck Freymann on LinkedIn or X, @eyckfreymann👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific