The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

Why the Curve Steepening Is a Real Economic Signal 03.08.2026 9мин

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve actually tells us about the economy in early August 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.68 percent and the 30-year pushing above 5.2 percent, while the 3-month bill sits at 3.82 percent, the hosts explore whether this is a sign of growth, inflation, or something else. They discuss the role of the term premium, the Fed's rate path, and why the long end might be reacting to supply and fiscal concerns rather than just inflation. Along the way, they offer practical takeaways for bond investors, including how to think about duration and whether to lean into longer maturities. If you've ever wondered why everyone watches the yield curve so closely, this episode gives you a clear, jargon-free lens. It's a focused look at one specific signal and what it means for your portfolio. #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TermPremium #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Economics #Investing #Duration #30YearTreasury #10YearTreasury #3MonthTreasury #CurveSteepening #BondInvesting #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is the New Signal 02.08.2026 8мин

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising shift in the Treasury market: the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.21 percent, its highest level in over a decade, while the front end stays anchored below 4 percent. They unpack what this 'long-end repricing' means for borrowers, homeowners, and pension funds, and why some investors are starting to see opportunity in long duration. With the yield curve steepening and the Fed on hold, they discuss whether the 30-year is sending a signal about inflation and term premium that the market can't ignore. Using recent data on the 10-year at 4.68 percent and the 2-year at 4.23 percent, they break down the dynamics driving this move and what it could mean for your portfolio. Tune in for a clear, conversational take on one of the most important numbers in fixed income right now. #TreasuryYields #30YearTreasury #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #BondMarket #Economics #Finance #Investing #FederalReserve #Inflation #TermPremium #Duration #PensionFunds #MortgageRates #LongTermBonds #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the Front End Is the New Battleground for Bond Investors 01.08.2026 8мин

With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.68 percent and the 2-year at 4.23 percent, the yield curve's front end has become the most talked-about corner of the fixed-income market. But what does 'front end' really mean, and why are investors suddenly obsessing over maturities of two years or less? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the shifting dynamics at the short end of the curve—where the Fed's rate path, the 3-month bill at 3.82 percent, and the interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent are creating both opportunity and confusion. They explain why the front end is responding to different forces than the long end, how the 10-year to 2-year spread of 47 basis points tells only part of the story, and why the 3-month to 10-year gap is widening. They also look at what the last few weeks of trading in TLT and SHY tell us about investor positioning. If you've been wondering whether to park cash in short-term Treasuries or lock in longer yields, this episode will help you think through the trade-offs. #FrontEnd #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FedRatePath #ShortTermBonds #BondMarket #FixedIncome #InvestingBasics #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #TBill #FederalReserve #BondETF #TreasuryBills #CashManagement #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the 2-Year Yield Stays 60 Basis Points Above Fed Funds 30.07.2026 7мин

The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.26%, the Fed funds rate is 3.63% – a 63 basis-point gap that's defying rate-cut expectations. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the front-end premium means for the bond market, how it compares to the 10-year spread, and why the market is pricing in a slower easing cycle than the Fed's dot plot suggests. They look at recent yield moves, the role of term premium, and what this means for investors with short-duration portfolios. #TreasuryYields #FedFundsRate #2YearTreasury #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #Finance #RateCuts #TermPremium #FrontEnd #MarketExpectations #Fed #July2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Finally Breaking Below 4 Percent 30.07.2026 6мин

For months, the 3-month Treasury bill yield hovered above the federal funds rate, signaling tight liquidity and no imminent rate cuts. But as of July 28, 2026, the 3-month yield has dropped to 3.90% — down from 3.96% a week earlier — narrowing the spread to the fed funds rate to just 27 basis points. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the shift: the Federal Reserve's latest meeting with three dissenting votes, a steepening yield curve that now shows a 45-basis-point gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, and rising geopolitical tensions with China that are fueling a flight to safety. They explore whether the front end of the curve is finally pricing in a Fed pivot, and what that means for short-duration bond strategies. With the 10-year yield at 4.61% and the 30-year at 5.09%, the bond market is sending mixed signals. Tune in for a focused look at the one yield that may be the most important tell of all. #TreasuryYields #ThreeMonthBill #FederalReserve #RateCuts #YieldCurve #BondMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FixedIncome #FedPivot #ShortDuration #SafeHaven #ChinaTradeWar #Steepening #LiquidityCrisis #FOMC #InvestmentStrategy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

What the Fed's Three Dissent Votes Mean for Bond Yields 29.07.2026 5мин

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on July 29, 2026, but three voting members dissented in favor of a hike. Lucas and Luna break down the internal hawks-vs-doves dynamics and what it means for Treasury yields, the yield curve, and bond investors. With the 10-year at 4.65% and the 2-year at 4.31%, they explore why the market is pricing in cuts while the FOMC splits openly. Plus: the rising term premium, the next CPI report, and how listeners can support ad-free analysis. #FOMC #Fed #RateDecision #Dissent #Hawkish #Treasury #YieldCurve #BondMarket #TermPremium #Inflation #CPI #FixedIncome #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MonetaryPolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the Yield Curve Turned Positive and What Happens Next 29.07.2026 8мин

The 10-year versus 2-year Treasury yield spread has turned positive for the first time in over two years, sitting at 35 basis points as of July 29, 2026. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what this shift means for the economy, drawing on historical patterns from past business cycles. They discuss whether a positive slope signals an impending recession or a soft landing, and examine current data—including the 30-year yield above 5% and the 3-month bill still above the fed funds rate. The hosts also explore implications for fixed-income investors considering duration extension. This episode grounds a complex topic in real-time numbers, offering a clear framework for understanding the bond market's most watched indicator. #BondMarket #Treasury #YieldCurve #PositiveSlope #10YearYield #2YearYield #RecessionSignal #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FixedIncome #Economics #Business #Finance #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MarketAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

How Duration Is Becoming Attractive Again in Fixed Income 28.07.2026 7мин

In Episode 140 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the yield curve's return to a positive slope is reshaping bond strategies. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69% and the 2-year at 4.33%, the spread of 34 basis points marks a clear shift from the deeply inverted curve of recent years. They dive into why longer-duration bonds like TLT and IEF have outperformed short-term T-bills over the past week, and what this means for investors who have been parking cash in money markets. The hosts also break down the role of term premium, the Fed's steady policy rate at 3.63%, and whether the new duration trade has staying power. A must-listen for fixed-income investors navigating the steepening curve. #Duration #YieldCurve #10YearTreasury #2YearTreasury #30YearTreasury #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TermPremium #FedPolicy #TLT #IEF #SHY #Economics #InvestingStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why TIPS Are Falling Behind Nominal Treasuries in Late July 2026 28.07.2026 7мин

In late July 2026, inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are underperforming their nominal counterparts. The TIP ETF dropped 0.5% in five days while the long bond ETF TLT rose 0.1%. Lucas and Luna break down why the breakeven inflation rate is contracting, how real yields are rising faster than nominal yields, and what this means for investors expecting higher inflation. They also explore the role of the Fed's interest on reserve balances and the shifting term premium. A timely analysis for fixed-income watchers questioning the inflation hedge narrative. #TIPS #Inflation #Treasuries #RealYields #BreakevenInflation #BondMarket #Fed #YieldCurve #TermPremium #TLT #TIP #IEF #LQD #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LateJuly2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why 2-Year and 5-Year Treasury Yields Are Converging 27.07.2026 5мин

The spread between the 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields has collapsed to just 3 basis points, a rare flattening in the front end of the curve. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what this convergence signals about market expectations for the Federal Reserve, how it contrasts with the steep long end, and what it means for fixed-income investors. They tie in the Moody's warning on AI-driven credit risk and the latest data showing the 10-year yield at 4.71 percent. A focused look at the belly of the yield curve and what it reveals about rate expectations. #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #BondMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #2YearYield #5YearYield #YieldSpread #FlatteningCurve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FixedIncome #BondInvesting #Macro #InflationExpectations #CreditMarkets Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

How Oil Prices Are Repricing Fed Rate Hike Odds 27.07.2026 6мин

The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.37% as surging oil prices push inflation expectations higher, leading the bond market to price in two quarter-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve before year-end. Lucas and Luna break down the connection between crude oil's rally and the short end of the yield curve, examine why the 2-year is now yielding 74 basis points above the Fed funds rate, and discuss the implications for both Treasury and corporate bond investors. With oil up roughly 15% in the last month and the odds of a September rate hike rising, this episode offers a clear, data-driven look at how energy costs are reshaping Fed policy expectations and what that means for fixed-income portfolios in late July 2026. #OilPrices #FedRateHike #2YearYield #Treasuries #YieldCurve #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #EnergyInflation #RateExpectations #ShortEnd #MonetaryPolicy #MarketRepricing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

How Term Premium Is Driving the Yield Curve Steepening 26.07.2026 6мин

The yield curve is steepening, but it's not just about Fed rate hikes or recession bets. Lucas and Luna break down term premium—the extra compensation investors now demand for holding long-term Treasuries. With the 10-year yield at 4.71 percent and the 2-year at 4.37 percent, the spread of 36 basis points is widening, but much of that move comes from a revival of term premium after years of negative readings. Oil prices surging above $85 and growing federal debt are forcing bondholders to demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk. The 30-year yield is at 5.17 percent, reflecting that long-end uncertainty. Lucas explains the math: if you strip out expected short-term rates, term premium has turned positive for the first time since the pandemic. Luna asks how this changes portfolio strategy, and Lucas points to TIPS and shorter-duration bonds as hedges. The episode also covers why the Fed's next move is now a coin flip—rate hike vs. hold—and how oil is reshaping the curve. A listener-funded segment explains how the show stays ad-free. #TermPremium #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #2YearYield #30YearYield #OilPrices #FedRateHike #Inflation #BondMarket #TIPS #DurationRisk #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is 100 Basis Points Above the Fed Funds Rate 26.07.2026 6мин

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68% while the Fed funds rate is stuck at 3.63% — a gap of over a full percentage point. In Episode 135, Lucas and Luna break down what's behind that spread: surging oil prices pushing up inflation expectations, a rising term premium driven by AI investment risk and fiscal deficits, and the market pricing in a potential rate hike. They explain why the 10-year isn't following the fed funds rate and what it means for investors. With references to the 2-year and 30-year yields, and a look at corporate credit stress, this episode dives into the mechanics of a stubbornly steep yield curve. #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FedFundsRate #TermPremium #10YearYield #YieldCurve #OilPrices #Inflation #FederalReserve #RateHikeOdds #CorporateBonds #CreditRisk #AIInvestment #FiscalDeficit #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

How Rising Oil Prices Are Reshaping the Treasury Yield Curve 25.07.2026 8мин

With oil prices surging and odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike rising, the Treasury market is repricing. Lucas and Luna break down how the 10-year yield climbed to 4.71%, the 2-year to 4.37%, and why the yield curve is steepening. They explore the connection between commodity inflation, Fed policy expectations, and what it means for bond investors. This episode uses live data from July 25, 2026, including the 30-year yield at 5.17% and the 3-month bill at 3.95%, to show how oil is driving the bond market narrative. #OilPrices #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #RateHike #Inflation #BondMarket #10YearYield #2YearYield #30YearYield #CommodityInflation #MonetaryPolicy #Investing #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FixedIncome #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the 10-Year Yield Is Stuck at 4.70 Percent 24.07.2026 9мин

The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.70 percent in late July 2026, refusing to break higher or lower despite volatile oil prices and shifting rate expectations. Lucas and Luna examine why the market is stuck — from the Fed's steady hand on the IOER to a global bid for duration that's capping yields. They zero in on the 10-year real yield spread and what it signals about growth expectations. Plus, how the 2-year yield's rise to 4.31 percent is narrowing the curve again, and what that means for the recession debate. #10YearYield #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #Economics #InterestRates #IOER #Inflation #RealYields #Duration #FOMC #BondInvesting #USDebt #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

How the 10-Year Yield Is Topping 4.70 Percent in July 2026 23.07.2026 6мин

The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.70 percent as of July 23, 2026, driven by a combination of hawkish Fed expectations, surging oil prices above $100 a barrel, and a steepening yield curve that now shows the 5-year yield leading the move. Lucas and Luna break down what's behind this rapid rise, how it's affecting bond ETFs like TLT and IEF, and what it means for investors watching the 2-year to 10-year spread. They also examine why the 30-year yield is pushing above 5.13 percent and whether this signals a structural shift in inflation expectations or a temporary shock. With the Fed's next meeting looming, this episode offers a clear, data-driven look at the forces reshaping the Treasury market today. #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #OilPrices #Inflation #TLT #IEF #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #PodcastEpisode #July2026 #SteepeningCurve #30YearYield #5YearYield Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

How the Corporate Bond Market Is Decoupling From Treasuries 23.07.2026 6мин

Episode 131 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners. Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising July 2026 development—corporate bond yields are not following Treasuries higher. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 30-year above 5.13%, investment-grade and high-yield spreads have actually tightened. Lucas explains why the 'risk-free' anchor is losing its grip on corporate debt, pointing to strong company balance sheets, the carry trade in credit, and a structural shift in institutional demand. The hosts examine how the LQD ETF (investment-grade corporate bonds) is down only 0.8% in five days while the long-term Treasury ETF TLT has lost 0.9%, and they discuss what this decoupling means for fixed-income investors. If you want to understand why corporate bonds are behaving differently from government debt in a rising-rate environment, this episode breaks it down with specific data, ETF tickers, and a clear framework. #CorporateBonds #Treasuries #YieldCurve #CreditSpreads #LQD #HYG #TLT #FixedIncome #BondMarket #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #FederalReserve #SpreadTightening #Decoupling #July2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why TIPS Are Beating Nominal Treasuries in July 2026 23.07.2026 11мин

Episode 130 of The Bond Market Podcast examines why Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are outperforming nominal Treasuries in late July 2026. Lucas and Luna break down the 10-year TIPS yield dropping to 1.25 percent, the breakeven inflation rate climbing to 3.41 percent, and what the 'TIPS spread' reveals about market expectations for Fed policy. They discuss the $42 billion in inflows into TIPS ETFs this year, how inflation breakevens are signaling a regime shift in bond pricing, and what it means for fixed-income investors wondering whether to own TIPS or conventional Treasuries. Packed with current data and a pragmatic framework for navigating the TIPS market. #TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #BreakevenInflation #RealYield #InflationHedge #FixedIncome #BondMarket #FederalReserve #July2026 #TLT #IEF #TIP #YieldCurve #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondPodcast #MarketData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

How Corporate Bond Arbitrage Is Breaking the Yield Curve 22.07.2026 6мин

Lucas and Luna examine how the corporate bond market is distorting Treasury yield relationships in July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.60 percent and investment-grade corporate bonds yielding 106 basis points more, hedge funds are exploiting the spread through credit arbitrage strategies. The hosts explain why this activity is flattening the Treasury curve artificially, how the 5-year Treasury note has become the battleground for these trades, and what happens when the arbitrage unwinds. They reference specific data including the current 37-basis-point spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the 4.40 percent 5-year yield leading the steepening, and the growing divergence between credit markets and government bonds. Perfect for fixed-income investors and traders trying to understand why traditional yield curve signals are breaking down. #CorporateBondArbitrage #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #InvestmentGradeBonds #CreditArbitrage #FixedIncome #BondMarket #HedgeFunds #10YearTreasury #5YearTreasury #LQD #TreasurySpread #MarketStructure #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Why the 5-Year Treasury Is Leading the Curve Steepening 22.07.2026 7мин

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 5-year Treasury yield has surged 2.7% in the past week to 4.37%, outpacing gains in the 2-year and 10-year notes. They explore how this 'belly of the curve' move is reshaping the steepening narrative, with the 10-year-2-year spread at 37 basis points and the 30-year yield above 5%. The hosts discuss drivers from supply concerns to hedge fund positioning, and what it means for investors. They also touch on Jamie Dimon's recent warning about Treasury risks and how the 5-year is becoming the new battleground for rate expectations. #5YearTreasury #YieldCurveSteepening #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FederalReserve #JamieDimon #InvestmentStrategy #BellyOfTheCurve #TreasurySupply #HedgeFunds #CurveSteepener #BondPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InterestRates #MarketSignal Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo