Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Епизоде

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  (Preview) The Limited Potential for a Pacing Deal; MSS on PRC AI Risks; Distillation and Data Security; The Party’s Approach to Social Media 16.09.2026 13мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill look at several dimensions of the PRC’s approach to AI. First: The various reasons a push for an agreement with U.S. labs to “pace” AI development is unlikely to bear fruit and the history of the CPC’s approach to control over technology. Then: The head of the MSS offers a view into CPC concerns around political security risks and data risks, while Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposes a misguided framework for forcing Chinese compliance with a slowdown agreement. From there: The U.S. reiterates its complaints about Chinese companies conducting “industrial-scale” distillation of U.S. AI models, while Anthropic suggests sensitive PRC data was shared with Claude. At the end: A law broadening exit bans goes live, the New York Times reports Chinese social media “getting dark,” while the Wall Street Journal highlights an influencer scandal captivating netizens.
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  China’s Global Strategy; Tragedy on the Nepal-Tibet Border; A 19-1 Vote at the G-20; TikTok Dodges Congress 04.09.2026 59мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a perspective on PRC strategy under Xi, including what the party wants from global institutions, how the PRC differs from the U.S., and political security as a paramount priority. Then: Thoughts on the heartbreaking flood at the Nepal-Tibet border, including the party’s response, censorship and data sharing, and the realities of the geography in question. At the end: A raft of U.S.-China stories: the PRC scuppering a G20 joint communique, Anthropic and AI safety questions, notes before Xi’s visit in three weeks, waiting for better evidence that the PRC is shaping U.S. data center discourse, and TikTok dodges the China Select Committee.
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  (Preview) Five US-China (and Russia) Questions; Cabbage with Formaldehyde; The Continuing Tax Crackdown; Unitree Stock Down 45% 27.08.2026 11мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a series of questions on the US and China, including a look at the likely toothless threats implied by Trump’s “Economic D-Day” agenda, China’s role or lack thereof in a breakdown between the US and Canada, questions about the next four weeks and four months of the relationship, and, unrelated to the US, what to watch for as Xi heads to the SCO Summit where he could potentially meet Vladimir Putin. From there: A cabbage scandal in Hebei province and a longstanding concern among both PRC citizens and the party. At the end: How and why the central government is using tax crackdowns to cover local government shortfalls, four People’s Daily articles on the economy, a surprise plenary session of the CCDI, the founder of Evergrande is sentenced to life in prison, and thoughts on what the Party wants from the stock market as Unitree stock loses nearly half its value after an initial IPO pop.
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  Wang Yi Visits South Korea; Remembering Zhu Rongji; US-China Ahead of Xi’s Visit; How China Monitors Foreigners 20.08.2026 59мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill with Wang Yi’s visit to South Korea this week, including the fortunate timing for the PRC in the wake of President Trump’s decision to scale back joint US-ROK exercises, PRC concerns around North Korea, and dynamics on the peninsula that are shifting in ways that aren’t entirely clear. Then: Zhu Rongji’s legacy, a week of nostalgia for the Zhu/Jiang era, and the uncertain future of the Linden Centre after a poignant Financial Times piece two weeks ago. At the end: Catching up on US-China news from the break, including thoughts and questions ahead of Xi’s visit to D.C., a draft plan to make American AI partners choose between the US and China, China’s continued reliance on Nvidia hardware, the White House highlights transshipment concerns, the DOW asks higher education for more info on foreign research, and an emailer who asks about the New York Times’ reporting on PRC programs to surveil foreigners.
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  (Preview) A Memory-Maker Makes History; New Robot Rules; The Open Weights Debate Rages; End of July News and Notes 30.07.2026 14мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to CXMT’s IPO success this week, including responses from legislators in Washington and the stakes of Apple’s continued lobbying fight to relax restrictions on US companies working with PRC memory firms. Then: The FCC announces rules restricting the import of new, foreign-made robots and power inverters in a move to curb security risks and fuel onshoring. From there: Surveying the ongoing debate over the future of open weights models, including disadvantages facing US-led open source AI efforts, MOFCOM’s statement on distillation and Silicon Valley’s support for Chinese open weights AI, and the risks of building atop PRC AI infrastructure. At the end: Expectations for the July Politburo meeting, news out of Iran that may threaten constructive strategic stability in advance of Xi’s visit to D.C., a bad few weeks for Mercedes, and more clashes between the PRC and the Philippines.
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  (Preview) Kimi Madness; Xi’s AI Vision and US Questions; Trump’s Election Data Claims; The Connected Vehicle Security Act 21.07.2026 14мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill focus on the arrival of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model and the “DeepSeek 2.0 concerns” among investors and policymakers. Topics include: The incoherent U.S. approach to the open source AI ecosystem, levers the U.S. side could pull to thwart Chinese progress, and why the Trump Administration might be reluctant to take those steps. Then: Xi’s keynote address at the World AI conference, China’s coherent messaging to the world, questions about infrastructure in the Global South, and the needle the U.S. could thread with open source policy. At the end: Trump’s claims of “an unprecedented election security nightmare” at the hands of the PRC, the Connected Vehicle Security Act heads to mark-up this week, Neville Roy Singham is under investigation, and Rep. John Moolenaar urges the NBA to look closer at Brooklyn Nets owner—and Alibaba Chairman—Joe Tsai.
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  (Preview) K-Shaped Economic Data And Its Implications; Ma Xingrui News; Closing Window for Open Source AI?; The SCS and International Law 16.07.2026 15мин

  On today’s show, Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the economic data released by the PRC this week, including slower-than-expected growth, the Party’s response to the status quo, export-powered growth that is widening trade imbalances, and the questions all of this will raise for foreign policymakers. From there: The Party’s findings on Ma Xingrui, questions that remain unanswered, and cadre risk aversion for the next 18 months. Then: PRC messaging around openness in AI, an ongoing U.S. debate over open-source AI models, three chip bills that may end up in the NDAA, and the continued adventures in China policy on Capitol Hill. At the end: Reflections on the 10th anniversary of The Hague ruling on the PRC’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, as well as the state of play today.
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  A Missile Test and New PLA Generals; The CITIC Plane Crash; America’s Taiwan Interests; Guo Wengui Jailed and Ezra Jin Released 09.07.2026 1ч 7мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Monday’s SLBM test from the PLA Navy, including questions surrounding its timing and location, regional angst, and a reminder that the PLA continues to enhance its nuclear triad capabilities. Then: Two new PLA generals are promoted while rectification continues and five CMC seats remain vacant, and reactions to last week’s shocking CITIC plane crash and a major security breach in Beijing. From there: An emailer asks about America’s interests in maintaining the Taiwan status quo, Beijing considers limiting access to advanced AI models, the knives are out for Jeffery Kessler at BIS, and the White House preps for Xi’s visit in September. At the end Questions about the release of pastor Ezra Jin, context for the U.S. sentencing of disgraced tycoon Guo Wengui, and the Washington Wizards get a letter from Rep. John Moolenaar.
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  (Preview) Party Building and Xi’s Dominance; Memory Chips and ASML Accusations; Germany’s Puzzling Push for Plaza Accords 24.06.2026 14мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building and further signs that one year after from a summer of rumors and one year out from the 21st Party Congress, Xi’s power remains entrenched as ever. Then: MOFCOM and the Ministry of Finance announced restrictions on several dozen US firms, the global memory chip shortage is an opportunity for CXMT and YMTC, what to make of the U.S. government’s scrutiny of ASML, and Elon Musk’s alarm over the West’s China vulnerabilities. At the end: Takeaways from the EU Council meeting on China, Germany’s push for PRC currency revaluation, structural forces that yield EU inertia, and emails on Chinese soccer, space warfare, and the Jim Cramer of weather.
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  (Preview) Xi Goes to North Korea; Inspecting Xinjiang; A $295 Billion AI Buildout; The Pentagon Alleges PLA Links for Alibaba and Others 11.06.2026 14мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi’s visit to North Korea this week, including the conspicuous silence on North Korea’s nuclearization, Kim Jong Un’s assistance to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Beijing as Kim’s top priority, U.S.-Japan dialogue on regional nuclear threats, and an email about the PRC as a communist country. From there: CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning leads an inspection tour of Xinjiang ahead of the July 1st implementation of the national ethnic unity law, plus thoughts on Xinjiang’s strategic importance generally and why Beijing sees its recent efforts as successful. At the end: China preps for an AI infrastructure buildout, the Pentagon alleges that Alibaba, Baidu and BYD are linked to the PLA, the Busan truce is being tested by both sides, and two Knicks stars wish students good luck on the GaoKao.
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  Seizing The Commanding Heights; Decoding Shangri-La Dialogue; Europe Moots Trade Policy; The PRC Expels a New York Times Journalist 04.06.2026 1ч 10мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping’s call to seize the commanding heights of science, technology, and industry across six industries of the future, as well as the State Council’s move to release a 34-article law that will implicate domestic firms, foreign businesses and potentially foreign governments, as well as PRC financial institutions and individual investors. From there: Reactions to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s remarks at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue, why an absence of Taiwan mentions in his main speech is not necessarily seen in Beijing as a shift in policy, and questions regarding U.S. partnerships elsewhere in the region. At the end: The looming trade tensions between Europe and China, the expulsion of New York Times journalist Vivian Wang, the 37th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacres, and Steph Curry’s new endorsement deal with Li-Ning.
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  (Preview) Social Mobility and Hukou Reform; US Halts Taiwan Arms Sales?; Ongoing Pressure on Japan; An American Xinhua Journalist Arrested 28.05.2026 15мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that Beijing moved to further ease hukou restrictions, including why this is a welcome change for millions of Chinese citizens, as well as a look at questions and challenges as the reforms are implemented. Then: A report that Chinese AI talent has been restricted from leaving China, while Beijing continues its efforts to control capital outflow and offshore investments. From there: Indications that the US has indeed paused its second tranche of arms sales to Taiwan, and more details on a US-China board of investment. Then: PRC-Japan updates, including reports of Takaichi recriminations from Xi in his meeting with Trump, heavy rare earth shipments restricted for the past four months, the cards Japan has yet to play, and Mao’s strategic stalemate as a stage of protracted war, not an endgame. At the end: An American journalist for Xinhua and other state outlets is arrested and accused of acting as an unregistered agent of the CCP.
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  (Preview) Constructing US-China Stability; Trump’s Taiwan Comments and More Summit Takeaways; Putin in China 21.05.2026 12мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill parse the messaging from both sides of last week’s US-China summit in Beijing. Topics include: What the PRC means by “a constructive relationship of strategic stability,” why the US side adopted the framing as well, a relative absence of tangible deliverables, and why “a calculated stalling tactic from both sides designed to manage risk” may be a more accurate rendering of the status quo. From there: Trump’s various comments on Taiwan spark concern and questions, plus notes on Rubio, Ratner, an indictment of Chinese shipping magnates, and an Iran ceasefire Xi calls “imperative.” At the end: Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, questions for the EU, and more bad news for Nvidia in China.
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  10 Questions and Modest Expectations With Trump in China to Meet Xi Jinping 13.05.2026 1ч 2мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through 360 degrees of President Trump’s trip to Beijing this week. Topics include: Jensen Huang hitching a ride in Alaska, general expectations for deliverables after limited leaks and hurried advance planning, Trump’s reception in Beijing, and the limits of “upper hand” analysis. From there: A coterie of billionaire CEOs make the trip with Trump, a US Chamber of Commerce/Rhodium Report report warning about the PRC’s industrial strategy, and Trump makes overtures about “opening” China. At the end: Questions on Taiwan arm sales and AI cooperation, the expected talks on Ezra Jin and Jimmy Lai, a trillion dollar investment report that went viral eight months later, Xi’s calculus before a 21st Party Congress, the Iran question looming over the week’s meetings, and big, fat hug speculation.
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  (Preview) Beijing Kills Meta’s Manus Deal; April Politburo Takeaways; Foreign Forces Afflicting the Youth; US Countermeasures Mounting 30.04.2026 15мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the Meta-Manus deal will likely be unwound in its entirety in the wake of a ruling from the NDRC on Monday. Topics include: The legal grounding cited by Beijing, reports that Manus failed to seek regulatory approval prior to its relocation and acquisition, Mark Zuckerberg as the photo negative of Tim Cook, Beijing’s signal to the AI ecosystem, and why fears of chilled innovation may be slightly overstated. Then: Takeaways from April’s Politburo assessing the economy after Q1, including a nod to the Iran war, no signs of stimulus, and why cracking down on involution is easier said than done. At the end: The MSS argues that foreign forces are driving the “lying flat” campaign, while the U.S. quietly applies pressure on a variety of fronts in advance of May’s meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping.
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  (Preview) Xi Wants the Strait of Hormuz Re-Opened; Cakes and An E-Commerce Crackdown; The Next Stage of Decoupling; The MATCH Act in Congress 23.04.2026 12мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the PRC’s posture amidst the ongoing war in Iran. Topics include: Xi’s call to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, an interdicted Iranian ship that may have been carrying missile precursors from China, Trump’s posture toward China three weeks before his summit in Beijing, and deals between the US and Indonesia and the US and the Philippines. Then: The SAMR fines several e-commerce giants over food safety concerns in the “ghost delivery” sector, plus thoughts on the ongoing struggle to combat involution. From there: New regulations in Beijing to crack down on foreign companies attempting to diversify supply chains, the USTR’s Jamieson Greer comments on US partners and a new rare earth strategy, and notes on tensions between the PRC and Japan. At the end: The MATCH Act in Congress and the continued scrutiny over semiconductor manufacturing equipment, an updated timeline for DeepSeek’s new model, and a Mandelson mess continues to unspool in the U.K.
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  (Preview) A Ceasefire and Reports of PRC Pressure; Another Politburo Investigation; Mythos, DeepSeek, and a Token Crunch 09.04.2026 13мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the tentative ceasefire in Iran and reports that the PRC applied pressure to the Iranians to defuse the tensions. Topics include: The lack of clarity on what the PRC actually did and why, China’s vote at the UN this week, why the PRC would like the war to end sooner rather than later, and relationships with other Gulf countries that may or may not change because of the war. From there: Ma Xingrui’s disappearance from public view is met with official confirmation of an investigation, Anthropic’s Mythos model clarifies the stakes of the AI race, DeepSeek news, a token crunch in China, and scenes from Victor Wembanyama’s visit to the Shaolin Temple last summer.
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  The U.S., China and Iran; A PRC-Pakistan Peace Plan; KMT Chair Set to Visit China; Huawei, Manus and ZXMOTO 02.04.2026 57мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on China’s response to the war in Iran, including a peace plan co-authored with Pakistan, why the PRC is not necessarily interested in global leadership, how China sees a deepening U.S. rift with NATO countries, and President Trump’s visit to Beijing rescheduled for May 14th. From there: Context for the KMT Chair’s visit to China later this month, reactions to a Reuters report on Huawei’s latest AI chips, while the Financial Times reports that both Manus co-founders have been banned from leaving China. At the end: ZXMOTO steals the show at the World Superbike Championship and Zhang Xue introduces himself to the world.
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  (Preview) A Giant Mess with Super Micro; Completely Correct Xiong’an Progress; The PRC’s Balancing Act on Iran; Manus, Apple and Router News 25.03.2026 18мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with last week’s indictment of Wally Liaw, the co-founder of Super Micro, and its implications for US chip policy. Topics include: Incredible details from the indictment, US enforcement options, and bipartisan calls for government action on Nvidia exports to China and Southeast Asia. Then: Xi takes three Standing Committee members and three other Politburo members to inspect the progress at Xiong’an, signaling continued commitment to the “new area” 60 miles south of Beijing. At the end: Reports that the US visit to China is delayed indefinitely, the PRC’s delicate diplomatic calculus as the Iran war continues, and tech news on Manus, Apple, OpenClaw, and an FCC ban on routers.
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  (Preview) The War in Iran and the Visit to Beijing; New DNI Assessments on Taiwan; Military Scientists Disappearing From Public View 20.03.2026 13мин

  On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that President Trump has postponed his visit to Beijing amid the war in Iran, including why a delay made sense for both sides, a “Board of Trade” proposal amid signs of stability in Paris, and the uncertainty that pervades on both sides as the war in Iran continues. From there: Reactions to a DNI assessment on China’s reunification intentions, news on U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan, the unknowns for China as Gulf unrest persists, and questions surrounding PLA readiness in 2026. At the end: Reactions to reports that several military scientists have had their profiles scrubbed from public websites, while Jensen Huang tells the world that Nvidia has received purchase orders for the H200 but Groq will not be shipping inference chips.