Patrick Boyle On Finance
Patrick Boyle
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This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker.
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This Is Probably Fine! 30.05.2026 30minUS 30-year Treasury yields just hit 5.2% — the highest level since July 2007. UK gilt yields are at levels not seen since 1998. Japanese bond yields are at record highs. Something is happening in global bond markets, and it's not just about inflation.In this video I explain what's driving the global rise in long-term borrowing costs, why the era of free money is probably over, and what fiscal dominance means for central bank independence. I cover the history of US presidents fighting with the Federal Reserve — including LBJ shoving his Fed Chair against a wall — the 1970s UK economic collapse, the Liz Truss mini-budget crisis, the role of private credit and off-balance-sheet SPVs in financing the AI boom, and what all of this means for the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Most Unprofitable IPO in Wall Street History 23.05.2026 30minThis week, SpaceX filed the prospectus for what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. The document is extraordinary — part financial disclosure, part science fiction, and part governance structure that a corporate law professor has described as offering shareholders "no votes, no sales, and no suits." We look at the numbers, the products that don't yet exist, the AI business that SpaceX's own engineers won't use, the related-party transactions, the compensation package tied to a Mars colony the company admits is "improbable," and the one rocket that everything depends on. Everything I am about to tell you comes directly from the filing.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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What Trump's China Visit Actually Achieved. 17.05.2026 26minAs Donald Trump and Xi Jinping wrap up their summit in Beijing with little more to show for it than a few awkward handshakes, the media is left wondering where the big breakthrough went. But as we explore in this video, the failure of the "beans and Boeings" summit wasn’t a political failure—it was a certainty. Relying on the insights of economist Michael Pettis, we break down why trade surpluses and deficits are driven by domestic savings and investment choices, rather than trade policies or tariffs. From China’s systematic suppression of household consumption to the United States' structural trap as the global consumer of last resort, the underlying economic imbalances forcing this trade war cannot be fixed by podium announcements. Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Dumbest Takeover Bid 10.05.2026 30minGameStop — the meme stock famous for selling physical video game discs to people who no longer buy physical video game discs — has made an unsolicited 56 billion dollar offer to acquire eBay. GameStop is worth approximately 12 billion dollars. The offer is non-binding, the financing includes a highly confident letter from a Canadian bank, and the shares required to complete the deal have not yet been authorised by shareholders. CEO Ryan Cohen went on CNBC on Monday morning to explain how this would all work. He said the details were on the website. We looked at the website.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Unanchored Central Banker: Manoj Pradhan on Inflation, Demographics, and Why AI Won't Save Us 06.05.2026 50minToday, Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads macro and Fundamenta capital returns to the show to discuss his new book, co-authored with Charles Goodhart, which serves as a highly anticipated sequel to their prescient work, The Great Demographic Reversal. If you thought the recent era of high interest rates and sticky inflation was just a temporary post-pandemic blip, Manoj is here to explain why the future will be nothing like the past. In this episode, we take a hard look at where mainstream economists are getting it wrong. Manoj argues that conventional macroeconomic models suffer from massive "blind spots" because they largely ignore the ever-growing impact of government debt and housing on real interest rates. We also discuss his fascinating premise that the Phillips curve isn’t dead—China had just put it in a coma. As China's own demographic challenges mount and household savings eventually fall, Manoj argues that the consensus belief that China will continue to export deflation to the rest of the world is fundamentally flawed. The Unanchored Central Banker" by Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart. https://amzn.to/4n7hklUPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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Is Inflation About to Get Much Worse? 03.05.2026 32minU.S. consumer sentiment has fallen to a 74-year low. Brent crude is above $125 a barrel. And several highly credible economists had been warning that inflation was coming back — long before the first missile was fired. In this video, we look at the structural forces — demographic, fiscal, and geopolitical — that are making inflation much harder to control, and why central banks may no longer have the tools or the political independence to do anything about it.Based in part on the new book "The Unanchored Central Banker" by Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart. https://amzn.to/4n7hklUMy second channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyleInterviewsMy interview with Manoj Pradhan: https://youtu.be/EuhdSV_WTVI Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster 26.04.2026 28minThe stock market just hit a record high. Meanwhile, captains in the Persian Gulf are turning off their transponders and sneaking through the Strait of Hormuz in the dead of night. Only five ships made it through yesterday. The seaborne oil buffer that insulated the global economy in the early weeks of the conflict is now completely exhausted, and the knock-on effects - from jet fuel shortages in Europe to a fertilizer crisis threatening this year's harvest - are only just beginning to show up in the data. In this video, we look at why the physical commodity markets are telling a very different story to the stock market, and what happens when the world's most critical trade route is caught between two competing blockades.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Bizarre World of Prediction Markets 19.04.2026 29minPrediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been described as "truth machines" that produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polling. In this video we look at how they actually work, why the federal government is fighting individual states over who gets to regulate a bet on a football game, how a soldier allegedly used classified military intelligence to win money on a crypto betting site, and why quantitative trading firms are now paying traders $200,000 a year to build algorithms that systematically take money from retail bettors. We also look at the political connections behind these platforms, the academic research on the social cost of making it very easy to gamble from your phone, and why — after all of this — you still can't trade futures on onions.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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How Did the Metaverse Fail So Badly? 12.04.2026 30minIn October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg stood in front of the world and announced that the future of human interaction would be something called the metaverse. He was so confident about this that he renamed his three-billion-user company after it. Over the following four years, Meta spent $88 billion building a virtual world that almost nobody visited, featuring avatars that — for reasons that were never fully explained — did not have legs. Wall Street predicted five billion users. Consultants declared it too big to ignore. A man paid $450,000 to become Snoop Dogg's virtual neighbour. The metaverse peaked at around 900 daily users. This is the story of what went wrong, and what it cost.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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Canada is a Warning to the Rest of the World! 08.04.2026 32minCanada has every advantage a country could ask for — vast natural resources, a stable democracy, world-class universities, and a highly educated population. So why has its GDP per capita fallen from 80% of the American level to around 70% in little more than a decade? In this video, we look at how a protected economy, a housing market that rewarded sitting still over building things, and a productivity gap that has been quietly compounding for thirty years have combined to create what the Bank of Canada called a "productivity emergency" — and what it might mean for the rest of the developed world.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Crisis Hidden Inside the Iran War 29.03.2026 28minEquity markets have spent the past month treating the war in Iran like a minor inconvenience — a 'buy the dip' opportunity rather than a structural crisis. But while stock traders debate whether the President will 'TACO out' of the conflict, the real story is unfolding in the commodities that never make the headlines: LNG, helium, fertilizer, and aluminium. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Qatar's liquefaction plants in ruins, and Oxford Economics estimating the waterway will remain largely impassable until May, no Truth Social post is going to fix this. In this video, we look at why the physical damage to the region's infrastructure means the economic fallout will be felt long after the shooting stops — and why the winners and losers of this crisis are not who you'd expect.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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Is Private Credit a Threat to The Financial System 21.03.2026 25minWhile the world is distracted by global conflict, a panic is building in the private credit market. In this video, we go inside the opaque world of Private Credit - examine the "Golden Age" of lending that is rapidly turning into a slow-motion crisis. From the "volatility laundering" tricks used by managers to hide billion-dollar losses to the "Exit Trap" currently catching retail investors in BDCs, we explore how the search for yield led Wall Street directly to your 401(k). We look at why insiders like Boaz Weinstein are calling this a scandal, and what happens to the 48 million Americans whose jobs depend on the fragile financial plumbing when the credit finally contracts. Is this a repeat of 2008, or something much quieter but much harder to escape?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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SpaceX IPO Scandal 15.03.2026 29minSpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation for what could be the largest IPO in history. In this video, we examine how Elon Musk is folding a money-burning AI startup and a struggling social media platform into a rocket company to justify a price tag that defies financial gravity. From the engineering absurdity of "orbital data centers" and lunar railguns to the structural manipulation of the Nasdaq 100, we explore how low-float strategies and "fast-track" index inclusion rules are being used to turn passive 401(k) investors into exit liquidity for insiders. We look at the gap between EBITDA "vibes" and GAAP reality and the pivot from Mars to the Moon.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The UK is a Warning to the Rest of the World 09.03.2026 27minWhy has the United Kingdom transitioned from being a global economic powerhouse to a stark warning for other advanced nations. While the United States economy has surged ahead of the rest of the world since the 2008 financial crisis, Britain has remained trapped in a "productivity puzzle" driven by a series of compounding errors - from a punitive tax code that discourages its most skilled workers to a housing market that functions more like a closed shop than a place to live. We’ll analyze how decades of under-investment, a rigid post-Brexit labor market, and a "Bunker Economy" that prioritizes asset protection over growth have created a zero-sum political landscape. As the "graduate premium" collapses and a "Lost Million" of young people fall through the cracks, we ask the critical question: can the UK finally find the political courage to unpick the structural anchors dragging it down, or is this the new permanent reality for the once-mighty "workshop of the world"?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Winners & Losers from Trumps New Tariffs 02.03.2026 30minIn this episode, we explore the legal and economic fallout of the Supreme Court's landmark decision to strike down the "Liberation Day" tariffs, a move that has left the administration scrambling for a "Plan B". We dive into the "David vs. Goliath" story of VOS Selections, the tiny wine importer that successfully challenged the President's use of emergency powers, and examine why the new 10% flat-rate replacement may actually provide a competitive boost to China and Brazil while penalizing America's closest allies. From the bizarre world of "National Security Cabinets" to the $175 billion refund headache currently being exploited by "vulture" investors, we break down how tweeting out tariffs met its match in the U.S. Constitution.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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Bitcoin Is Crashing and Exchanges Freezing Up 23.02.2026 30minThis podcast explores the 2026 "Deep Freeze" of the crypto market, analyzing why the "digital gold" thesis has failed to protect investors as Bitcoin lags behind the S&P 500 total returns. We dive into the "Victory Paradox"—the irony that Bitcoin’s institutional acceptance through Wall Street ETFs and a "crypto-friendly" presidency has tethered it to traditional financial risks, destroying its status as an uncorrelated asset. From the $12 billion losses at Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. and the liquidity crisis at institutional prime broker BlockFills to the Great AI Pivot in the mining industry, we break down the structural traps currently paralyzing the ecosystem. Featuring insights on "Financial Nihilism" from Demetri Kofinas, the "Juggalo Theory" of crypto subcultures from Zeke Faux, and the massive migration toward prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, we ask the ultimate forward-looking question: now that Bitcoin is fully financialized, will it ever be an independent asset again?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Co-Conspirators: The Men the FBI Tried to Hide 15.02.2026 28minJeffrey Epstein was a college dropout with no formal financial training who amassed a fortune worth hundreds of millions of dollars and mingled with presidents and billionaires. Drawing on court records and media investigations we trace where Epstein's money came from and what happened to it? From his first job as a high school teacher to involvement in a Ponzi scheme, secretive offshore firms, and powerful clients like Les Wexner and Leon Black. As conspiracy theories swirl and official narratives shift, one question remains unanswered: where did Epstein's money actually come from?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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The Devil Himself! - The Worst of The Epstein Files 09.02.2026 45minIn today’s podcast, we examine the aftermath of the massive January 2026 data dump—three million pages of Jeffrey Epstein’s investigative files that the Department of Justice maintains contain no incriminating “client list”. We dive into the “Social Ponzi Scheme” that enabled decades of abuse, exploring the suspicious real estate transfers, cryptocurrency custodian links, and the international criminal probes that are currently toppling political giants across the globe. From the high-level PR strategies of the “Wall Street Renaissance Man” to the harrowing evidence of a eugenics-obsessed operation, we explore why this long-awaited transparency should not be confused with actual justice. As it turns out, when the powerful retreat into “vast carelessness,” it is often because they have spent years building a system designed to silence the questions they cannot answer.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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American TikTok is Censoring Everything 01.02.2026 27minOn January 22, 2026, TikTok officially became an "American" company. The $14 billion deal, brokered by a consortium of politically connected investors, was supposed to end the years of national security concerns and protect the data of 170 million US users. Instead, the new TikTok USDS Joint Venture has stumbled out of the gate with a series of "technical glitches" that look suspiciously like targeted censorship. From the inexplicable blocking of the word "Epstein" in direct messages to the suppression of protest videos in Minneapolis, the new management’s first week has raised a troubling question: did we actually solve the problem of algorithmic manipulation, or did we just ensure that the people doing the manipulating are the ones who helped broker the deal?This video examines the bizarre political U-turn that turned TikTok from a national emergency into a sweetheart deal for insiders. We look at the new owners, the incredibly invasive "biometric harvesting" hidden in the new Terms of Service, and the "Rational Business Actor" theory that suggests no company would be dumb enough to break its own product on day one. We also explore the "Mecha-Hitler" problem of content moderation, and why the "National Security" label may now be acting as a permanent shield against transparency for a platform that is now 100% domestic, 100% private, and perhaps, 100% MAGA.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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Does Europe Have a Financial Nuclear Option? 26.01.2026 22minThe recent Greenland crisis at Davos 2026 has shattered transatlantic trust, forcing Europe to confront a terrifying new reality: the need for strategic autonomy from the United States. Faced with what it views as transactional coercion, Brussels is readying an arsenal of economic countermeasures, ranging from a "trade bazooka" targeting U.S. tech firms to the highly publicized "financial nuclear option"—the threat of dumping trillions in U.S. Treasuries. But before we panic about a bond market collapse, we need to examine the hard financial realities: Is weaponizing sovereign debt a viable strategy, or is it merely a macroeconomic suicide pact? This video dives into the mechanics of this potential economic war and the high cost of moving from an era of global efficiency to one of fearful autarkyArticles Mentioned:Michael Pettis Paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2025/07/foreign-capital-inflows-dont-lower-us-interest-ratesMartin Wolf Article: https://www.ft.com/content/e2c8c6c3-0cdc-4aa8-a47d-399407c75ad9Richard Samans Paper: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rebalancing-the-world-economy-right-idea-but-wrong-approach/Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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