Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast

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• GitHub's plan for Agents — Kyle Daigle, GitHub 02.06.2026 1h 23min

  I’m excited to work with Microsoft once again as the presenting sponsors of the AI Engineer World’s Fair! We’ll streaming live from MS Build today for a special crossover pod with our friends at No Priors and the one and only Satya Nadella. However we did not hold back with this interview - we asked all the burning questions about uptime and Copilot that we know you have in your minds. Lets go!For almost two decades, GitHub has been the home of software, where both open source and closed flow, through commits, pull requests, reviews, actions, etc.This ecosystem flourished as open-source maintainers and contributors would continue shipping code for the benefit of the community. However as coding agents began to ship mass quantities of code - growing 1400% in 2026, it marked a new era that was both extremely exciting and challenging for GitHub.While these agents help more people ship more projects, they also significantly increase the floor of how much code is shipped, how often it is shipped, how many people commit code, and basically orders of magnitude multiples in every dimension of GitHub infrastructure:Now GitHub inevitably experiences more pressure on their infrastructure which was originally designed around human developers moving at human speed. This has resulted in a very publicly notable uptime story:So it begs the question of whether current systems around code can absorb what AI produces. Can CI/CD keep up when every idea becomes a build? Can open source maintainers survive floods of AI-generated slop contributions? Can GitHub preserve the human social contract of software while becoming the operating layer for agents?Which brings us to the perfect person to answer these questions: GitHub COO Kyle Daigle. In this episode, he joins swyx to unpack what happens when AI doesn’t just autocomplete code, but starts changing how companies operate, how open source works, how pull requests get reviewed, and how GitHub itself has to scale. We go deep on GitHub’s internal AI workflows: micro-skills, WorkIQ, MCP, Slack, Teams, email, Copilot workflows, the new Copilot desktop app, CLI, cloud agents, and how Kyle uses agents to look backwards across company context before deciding what to do next. Kyle also reflects on GitHub’s history building webhooks, APIs, Actions, npm, Dependabot, and Semmle, why the AI era is breaking GitHub in new ways, how Actions became a general-purpose compute layer, and what Copilot becomes after code completion.Full Video PodWe discuss:* Kyle’s expanded role across GitHub* How AI got Kyle coding again after years in leadership* Why GitHub rolls out AI through existing workflows instead of forcing new tools* WorkIQ, MCP, Slack, Teams, email, and GitHub as company context* Why massive “mega-skills” are giving way to small, atomic micro-skills* How AI changes summarization, communications, marketing, and analyst work* Why former developers in leadership may have a unique advantage in the AI era* Kyle’s “15 agents on Saturday” workflow* How Kyle built an AI-generated executive presentation for CRO/CFO teams* Why AI changes the chief of staff role without removing the human work* GitHub Actions, webhooks, arbitrary code execution, and secure agent compute* The npm acquisition, supply-chain security, 2FA, and token invalidation* Slop forks, vendoring, and whether AI agents change dependency management* What pull requests become when most PRs come from agents* Prompt requests, vouching, AI review, and trust in open source* What counts as a “developer” when AI lowers the barrier to building* GitHub Spark, low-code, and why GitHub refuses to hide the code* 14x commit growth, Actions load, databases, monorepos, and availability* Copilot’s evolution from completion to CLI, desktop app, cloud agents, and SDK* Context, memory, rules, and making GitHub “act like Kyle wants it to act”* Ambient AI, OpenClaw, enterprise security, and the new operating system for agents* What swyx should ask Satya Nadella about Microsoft’s AI futureKyle Daigle* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyledaigle* X: https://x.com/kdaigleTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction00:03:36 Why AI Got Kyle Coding Again00:07:04 Running GitHub with AI: WorkIQ, MCP, Slack, Teams, and Skills00:15:39 The Golden Age for Former Developers in Leadership00:17:31 15 Agents on Saturday and AI-Generated Executive Work00:20:20 How AI Changes the Chief of Staff Role00:21:45 GitHub’s History: Actions, npm, Webhooks, and Open Source00:28:45 Slop Forks, Vendoring, and AI Dependency Management00:33:57 Pull Requests, Prompt Requests, and Trust in Agent-Generated Code00:41:21 GitHub Stars, 200M+ Developers, and the New AI Builder Wave00:45:15 GitHub Spark, Low-Code, and Why GitHub Still Shows the Code00:47:38 GitHub’s Hardest Era: 14x Growth, Reliability, and Scale00:59:21 Actions as the Compute Layer for CI/CD and Automation01:02:04 The State and Future of GitHub Copilot01:08:24 Ambient AI, Background Agents, and the Future of the SDLC01:13:09 OpenClaw, Enterprise Security, and the New OS for Agents01:18:03 Build Announcements, WorkIQ, FoundryIQ, and Microsoft Context01:21:41 What Should swyx Ask Satya?TranscriptIntroduction: Kyle Daigle’s Expanded Role at GitHub and MicrosoftSwyx [00:00:00]: We’re here with Kyle Daigle, COO of GitHub. Welcome.Kyle [00:00:07]: Hey, thanks for having me.Swyx [00:00:08]: You’re not just CEO of GitHub. People know you as that. You have a new role.Kyle [00:00:11]: So I have an expanded role now. I’ve been working at GitHub for thirteen years and doing all things developer. Joined as a developer myself. And now, I’m also responsible as the CMO of Developer for Microsoft. And so all the kind of learnings and passion for developers and how we work with them and how we communicate and how we bring our products to market, we’re also bringing that expertise to the broader Microsoft ecosystem and helping every developer that uses a Microsoft product or would like to have a sort of similar experience that they’ve had with GitHub over the years. So it’s a different role in some ways, but it’s also just building on the experience that I’ve had at GitHub of just sort of tell the truth, be authentic, show people how to use it and then let the products speak for themselves. Now just doing that with, all of Microsoft.Swyx [00:01:09]: We’ll be releasing this in conjunction with Build. You got lots of stuff planned, and we can sort of touch on that whenever it’s appropriate. I think one of the interesting things is I rarely meet a COO who’s also a CMO. I think you’re a very outward facing and you’re very confident publicly. That’s rare. Do you actually view yourself as COO? What’s What is your thing?From GitHub Developer to COO/CMO: Building the Platform and Operating GitHubKyle [00:01:33]: I think for me, it’s been funny. The titles have always been, a— have always felt a little strange to me. I joined GitHub as a developer? I wrote so much of theSwyx [00:01:46]: Let’s bring that up. You wrote the back ends?Kyle [00:01:48]: I was going through, I was going through, some old photos, when folks were talking about how things were being built or how there was a build GitHub. I built, webhooks and worked with teams building the API, built the platform layer. Anything that integrated with GitHub, up until really twenty eighteen, I built or ran the engineering teams. And that’s kind of where my the beginning of my passion always was helping people build things, deliver them to, their customers. And so being a developer, building for developers was always super unique. In a— I think as my role expanded, it became my ability to talk to not just developers, but also enterprise customers or business leaders and have this translation layer. And then through all those years, GitHub has always operated pretty uniquely. Post-pandemic, working remotely was not as novel as it was when GitHub started in two thousand and eight. But all that expertise of running remote teams, doing it well, became this sort of bigger role, ultimately turning into the COO role of how do we operate GitHub in the way that GitHub’s always operated after the Microsoft acquisition. And kind of so on from there. So like for me, I think the— I’ve, I still code. I love coding but the problem has always been, people. It’s a much harder problem to both support our own employees, a harder problem to communicate to developers and enterprise buyers what we’re building why it matters, ‘cause those are two very different messages. And so getting to work in the mix of COO, CMO, also just being a dev, I think is what’s kept me at GitHub for so long.AI Workflows for Leadership: Commits, Retrospectives, and ContextSwyx [00:03:40]: Apparently, you have— your commits have gone up. What’s this? What’s going on?Kyle [00:03:45]: Rui’s called me out pretty aggressively. So I think— as you can imagine, right, you can see my normal era of being a dev In the twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen era, and then moving into management, and then ultimately the COO role. I think what you see there is me, really getting back to coding thanks to AI. I— similar to, attaching problems between how to market and how to operate a business and how to code, I find, building agents and workflows that are connecting very disparate problems to be what’s driving this. So that’s, some of it’s writing software. A lot of it is, connecting a ton of a different data sources to, help me out. But that is completely me really diving in on the AI side in trying out our tools, trying out everyone’s tools, But building for me, building for the non-technical leader, though I’m technical and how we’re, able to use these tools more than just the simple, call and response that I think a lot of the non-technical, your employers, you have to get— you have to use AI, and so everyone uses, ChatGPT or Copilot or Claude or whatever. To really get into, how is this going to help me out, it— I find that it’s not the I need to write a blog post, I need to those simple examples. Helping people find the workflows of, “Okay, I need you to go through all the PRs today. I need you to go through everything that we’ve posted online. I need you to go through what we did the last three months. Go through all of my Obsidian notes for any mentions of this then go through my transcripts at work.” We use, Teams, so, using WorkIQ, go call that MCP server, grab all the transcripts, go through all the Slack, and then build me out the plan of, what this week’s messaging actually was. That’s something that was, impossible because for me, I find AI in a what most of this launch here is actually, less building forward. It’s actually, a recursive loop backwards. I’m always looking at what had happened first. Go back through the week and tell me what we did, what worked, what didn’t work? And then tell me in the next three or four days-What would you tweak based on this sort of like looking backwards and then looking ahead a little bit? I find that to be so much more valuable, especially for like non-technical, because that retrospection is actually LLMs are very good at that. Like finding all the patterns, pulling them out, and then applying that retrospection to just a couple of days or just like a short period of time. Is all a bunch of apps that I’ve built and launched a bunch of, internal tools. I use the new, GitHub Copilot app, the desktop app with workflows. Every time I crack open my laptop, it’s running workflows for me. It’s just a ton of different stuff and of course, it all ends up on, it all ends up on GitHub.Swyx [00:06:47]: Of course. That’s where, that’s where, stuff is hosted. Man, there’s so much to ask you. I was going to leave the how do you run a company with AI thing at the end. I have to ask one— double click one thing. You said, you are looking back at the week. You’re, you’re understanding what happens. When you say we That’s three thousand people. How?Rolling Out AI Internally: Skills, CLIs, and Company ContextKyle [00:07:09]: I think when we started rolling out AI internally beyond engineering, right? One of the things that I was really, passionate about is like we have to do this in a way where no one has to change how they work. I don’t want to have to teach you a tool. I don’t want to have to teach you something new. And so for us, we tried out a few tools. Most of them don’t work because I got to get you on board? I got to teach you how to use it. What we’ve actually ended up doing is we’ve built like a set of skills internally. We have we each have our set of skills, and we’ve just been distributing even to the non-technical folks, the CLI. And then effectively, we’re just giving it access to like read about everything that we’re writing. So that’s for us, that’s usually GitHub, Teams, Email, and Slack. So Teams for, video chat, generally speaking.Swyx [00:08:03]: Teams and Slack?Kyle [00:08:04]: so we use Teams for video communication, but we don’t use it for chat. W-we— GitHub for a long history, right? We’re alwaysSwyx [00:08:13]: Also SlackKyle [00:08:14]: Talking about ChatOps and like everything is built into Slack. Like every command, every flow.Swyx [00:08:18]: So even though you have been acquired for I don’t know, eight years nowKyle [00:08:22]: we stillSwyx [00:08:23]: You still use Slack?Kyle [00:08:23]: it’s a purpose-built tool for us, and I think the reality is that moving off of it would be so bluntly expensive? Simply because all the tooling is, baked in with that paradigm. And they both have their pros and cons but they don’t work the same way at all. We still use a bunch of different tools Because it’s the purpose-built tools that We need. And thenSwyx [00:08:47]: Well, the same doesn’t go for the rest of Microsoft, presumably.Kyle [00:08:50]: like the like various teams like operateSwyx [00:08:53]: They make their own decisionsKyle [00:08:54]: Various ways. I think it just matters what you’re trying to what you’re trying to do. But we do we do work across kind of every tool that we use, and then by giving everyone access to all of that context and the new WorkIQ MCP server, which is quite cool if you do live in the M365 like world. I can ask it all these backwards-facing questions, and it’s incredibly important for our teams that are working remotely. There’s a lot of stuff you miss when you’re not in an office, and we are spread out all over the world. So most of that is looking back. And then we post, we post either auto-automatically into GitHub issues or discussions, these sorts of like findings or like our industry reports. Like what’s happening this morning, today, yesterday. A little automation gets run. We’ll use the app. We might use GitHub Actions like with, our agentic workflows just to go do that run, and then we push it into GitHub, and w-we keep having a conversation. So usually for us, it’s about that sort of like looking back, looking forward on the non-technical side. And then of course for a lot of those folks, it’s also building an app, pushing it to GitHub pages or pushing it somewhere to host it et cetera. But it’s just like enabling everyone with that power of it’s going to take me a week to figure this out. Instead, we’re going “Okay I built a skill. Let’s put it into a repo. We’ll all share that skill together, and then we’ll use the CLI or now the app-” “just to run it.”Micro Skills vs. Mega Skills: How GitHub Uses AI at WorkSwyx [00:10:26]: All right. I think, I think we’re going straight into like the team management and productivity thing. I think a lot of people are getting various levels of LLM psychosis. How do you manage the bloat of skills? Like everyone Has their thing, and they’re Like trying to promote it to the rest of their peers in their org, right? And obviously, whoever becomes a skill influencer internally becomes like an AI leader, right? Of sorts. I assume you have those.Kyle [00:10:50]: like I think we haveSwyx [00:10:52]: And I assume it’s a mess a Yeah.Kyle [00:10:54]: there’s like I— like I think the reality is there’s two pieces. Like first is I think that we’re ending the era of these like massive, beautiful, perfect skills that are just like not any of those things. ‘cause for a while, right every tweet every day is like go download the skills, the perfectly managed thing to do this entire workflow. And I think that like what we’ve found and what— I was just with my team, this week, and we were talking about the skill side, and we’re really talking about these like incredibly micro skills that are just doing one thing for us very well Versus a skill that’s going to do I said, that full report. That doesn’t really exist on our side anymore. It’s usually how do— like a single skill that’s going to identify the most important marketing information given any MCP server. Like this is the most important thing. Less about stitch a bunch of tools together and have it produce this mega output because then weeks go by, months go by, things change, and you want to tweakSwyx [00:11:58]: It’s brittleKyle [00:11:58]: Your mega skill and you’re screwed? You can’t do that. And so now we’re really just talking about the Legos we’re using and just letting the instruction book be something we’re all putting together. Whereas I think a lot of AI skills for a while have been that mega instruction book style.Swyx [00:12:15]: I’ve, thought a lot about Postel’s law. I don’t know if that’s a term that is, means things to folks. It’s the idea that you should be liberal in what you accept and strict in what you output, right? And I think that’s like a good framing principle for skills. This is my skills, obviously on GitHub. I feel like everyone should have like how like some repos In GitHub are special repos? I feel like we should sort of reify the slash skills and everyone like give it some kind of special presentation. Anyway, so, yeah, this is one of those like download Download anything, transcribe anything, and then you can string together the atomic skills that do one thing well Into like some kind of orchestration skill that calls other skills. I assume, does that match?Kyle [00:12:56]: I like I think so. I think that theSwyx [00:13:00]: Summarize anything.Kyle [00:13:01]: Like I think the- For me, summarizing something for I do communications and PR and analyst relations and marketing and customer activities, and so my summarize everything is very different for each one of those like Contexts. What ‘Cause if I’m summarizing something for an analyst, that’s a very different thing than, probably how I’m going to summarize something for like a customer meeting or an engagement. So that’s I think like the difference when we’re talking about the like the tools I might use on Saturday or the skills I might use on a Saturday when it’s just for Kyle. Yeah, those are kind of like they have an atomic actual tool underneath or maybe skill, and then Kyle cares about X. But I think when we’re talking about work and enabling the the marketers, communicators there, it’s the atomic, this is what good summarization is, and then this is what I care about as for marketing for communications For whatever. And that I think is like the interesting matrix problem when we go from like a developer set of concerns to all kinds of different professions, is that what that word means to me is different than it means to you is different than it means to the analyst or the salesperson, and that’s where I think the matrix mess is that we’re starting to like still starting to find. It’s about these mega skills but they’re all just slight permutations, but those permutations are really important. It’s the difference between someone reading this and going “Did AI make this?” what Or “This makes total sense, and I would expect this when I’m giving a briefing to Gartner,” or like whatever else.Swyx [00:14:37]: I think the beauty of it maybe is that you don’t have to be that careful about what goes in there. It doesn’t have to exactly fit as long as it like roughly is contained in there. I used to complain about plugin hell, basically. Like when you have a framework and then you have a hundred things that you need to integrate, everyone does like the GitHub used to be bloated full of these things. And now we don’t need them anymore ‘cause now you just use skills.Former Developers in Leadership: AI as a Creation MultiplierKyle [00:15:00]: And like I think the most magical thing is the just that like I can just also crack it open. Like Like yes, I could go like change the how the plugin is coded, or like I could go do that now with AI, but I think there’s just something more magical about getting a response back and being “That’s not right,” and then you just crack the skill open, you just type English words and it’s different. That building block is just, I think very unique. Once I get everyone to kind of understand how to best how to best make those changes to get the most power out of them.Swyx [00:15:36]: Is there a— you have a your peer group that Of people like you. Is there a common framing for Something I’m feeling is, which is true, is that is this a golden age for former developers who are now in leadership? Because you can wield the tools, you would know the right words, you’re maybe not too close to the details. Doesn’t matter. But like you’re more effective than someone who doesn’t come from that background.Kyle [00:15:59]: I think that like the secret has always been your ability to identify patterns and solve problems, and I think that for folks that like myself that don’t code day to day anymore, that has made me successful as a developer, made me successful as a COO and now CMO. And so now that I have access to get and write code, I’m now applying that sort of like pattern finding and problem solving, and I know enough still about how to then go and say, “Oh, I want to make an app, but I don’t want to break into jail or create something that’s not going to be able to work or to be deployed scale or whatever.” that ability to apply all that additional business knowledge and still code I think is what makes that so interesting to me. Slightly different than I think some of the other like technical leaders that became business leaders and now are going back to their apps and updating them. Good for them? But I think the more, much more interesting thing is, well, now I have this whole new set of expertise over ten plus years. Why not take that and use that as a developer with these AI tools? So I definitely think that makes me more powerful, but I think that’s true for like every dev as well. Most of the dev friends I still have also have some other underlying skill and passion. There’s really talented, very kind of linear computer science software devs, absolutely. I just find that the folks that came from a different career, went to school for something else, went off and did this random thing, and then became a software dev, or were a dev, did a random thing, came back. Learning that extra set of information, learning those extra skills, and now having the power of an AI where I can crank up fifteen agents on Saturday while my kids are doing lacrosse, That’s like really powerful. And I think it gets me back to that feeling of like creation, and it’s very hard to replicate that in most other senses? That first time you build an app and you click it and you show someone that’s magical. And so being able to do that not just in code, but across all kinds of different assets that’s, that’s huge. We were doing we’re doing our every year we do our revenue planning. We talk about okay, what is it going to look like for next year? And of course as you imagine, there’s, slideshows everywhere talking about what are we going to talk about, what’s the narrative, et cetera. And so as you said I’m “Okay, well, I could probably just like build something to build this and then that way I don’t have to go build the whole spreadsheet or I have to pass it to my team.” So we went through this process, and I got all the information and used the skills I mentioned. I built like a little app just to make it so I could look at some of the information in a SQLite database, more easily. And I ultimately built this entire presentation without touching any of it and I was “Okay, I’m just going to present this to our CRO, the CFO, their teams,” without mentioning I’d built it with AI. I like built a skill to make it look very much not AI driven. Just not pretty.AI-Generated Presentations, Human Taste, and the Changing Chief of Staff RoleSwyx [00:19:03]: Like a design. Yeah.Kyle [00:19:03]: Not pretty. But just like very clearly not AI. Kind of like don’t do anything interesting.Swyx [00:19:08]: That’s, yeah, that is valuable.Kyle [00:19:08]: Just go Exactly. We did the whole thing through. It used my notes from Obsidian, it used all the context I mentioned before, the plans, and Never came up once that it was AI generated.Swyx [00:19:20]: It didn’t matter.Kyle [00:19:20]: Never once. D It didn’t matter. And so now I takeSwyx [00:19:23]: This is a toolKyle [00:19:23]: I can take that tool and go, “Look, I don’t want you to go build slideshows.” They’re just helping us share information with each other. If this thing can do it With a little bit of crafting from you and then we can look at it together, awesome. There’s no value in all that extra work. I think that the ability to, make it look humanly bad and and build a little app to, manipulate the data I think is part of, that upside for devs that are now in leadership roles. Because, the thing that I feel like I said before, this that’s all a people, that’s all a people problem. I know if you’ve used a coworker or not to build a slide deck, unless you spent a bunch of time to not do it.Swyx [00:20:07]: I know, but like it was so, I think there’s a certain charm to just being blatantly AI. ‘Cause I think that you’re well, you’re just honest about There may be mistakes here that I cannot vouch for. So how much value is there? But anyway I think, actually the real question I want to ask is, there’s a— You were a chief of staff To Thomas. And in the pre-AI world, the that job would’ve been a chief of staff job of like Can you prep me these slides and all that? And now you do it yourself.Kyle [00:20:35]: I still, I still have a chief of staff. Because, the difference is it’s sort of the discussion every time we have some sort of technology evolution is it’s not that the jobs the roles don’t all go away, they just change? And so yeah, I don’t have someone spending all their time building out slides for me and presentations ‘cause I don’t need that anymore. But now I need that person that is able to go and find all the different connections between humans in those discussions to help me find out, okay, I should be meeting with this group and this team, and they have an opportunity, and I’m going to be in San Francisco today, I’m going to be in Seattle tomorrow. Those sorts of human connection aspects are still incredibly valuable and has always been a big part of that chief of staff role. But now just like chiefs of staff are not opening up, letters to process, they’re doing emails. What It’s the same thing. And now they’re, they’re not building out as many of these presentations because they have the the ability to have a AI take it on for, and share that with me and great. Let’s keep moving ‘cause it’s allowing us to go faster and make better decisions more quickly.Swyx [00:21:45]: Awesome. Well, so we can dive into more sort of, Productivity insights as you go. I did want to do a little bit of a brief history of colleague and hub. Because, we started here. And then you also involved the NPM acquisition. I did, I do want to touch upon that. And then more recently, I just want to bring up to present day where we’re having uptime issues Which transparently we’ve already Addressed publicly, but we’ll, we’ll discuss in the pod. Did I miss anything? Like what, any other major highlights? Obviously, it’s, it’s a lot of years to cover.A Brief History of GitHub: Webhooks, Actions, Acquisitions, and Platform EvolutionKyle [00:22:15]: No the I think one of one highlight was right before the acquisition closed in twenty eighteen, I got to launch the first version of ActionsSwyx [00:22:27]: OhKyle [00:22:27]: At GitHub Universe. So it was OSwyx [00:22:29]: They’re that young?Kyle [00:22:30]: It was October of twenty eighteen, I think. Yeah. Yeah.Swyx [00:22:33]: Gee, Jesus.Kyle [00:22:34]: I got to I was the engineering leader on that project and got to launch that. And then, yeah, we did acquisitions of NPM you said, Semmle, Dependabot Pul Panda a whole bunch of things. That was a bigSwyx [00:22:47]: Pul Panda.Kyle [00:22:48]: Abi is doing well.Swyx [00:22:51]: DX. Holy crap.Kyle [00:22:52]: Did well on DX. I and like that was a that was the big shift, after the acquisition. I had to join the sort of business side.Swyx [00:23:00]: So I need to hit you on some of these things ‘cause you were there. Right? And how often do I get to talk to someone who was there? But yeah, Actions. Is that the number one source of security issues on GitHub?Kyle [00:23:11]: Oh, sh I think that the number one source of, security issues is probably like all, the literal code in everyone’s like underlying repositories. I would say back further than that is, if you remember I had to show in this graph was this is, I’m, didn’t say this before, this is ultimately webhooks.Swyx [00:23:30]: You yeah.Kyle [00:23:31]: Like circa whatever it was.Swyx [00:23:32]: It says Hookshot in there.Kyle [00:23:32]: I forget. Yeah. Yeah, Hookshot’s in there. And so like back then, it says GitHub Services. Do you see, it says Hookshot FE for front end, and then it says GitHub Services. GitHub Services back in the old days, right? You we had a repository that was Ruby code, and you could write any Ruby code in there, and then we would execute that On your behalf As a service, and then that way if an if you were trying to integrate with something, it didn’t we would run it for you.Swyx [00:23:57]: And of course no containers ‘causeKyle [00:23:58]: No, ‘cause it wasSwyx [00:23:59]: Well, no containersKyle [00:24:00]: Twenty fourteen. And so there was some isolation obviously, but it was mostly the separations on the server level. That’s like an example as long as the very old version of Pages, which ran on its own containerization infrastructure, not on Actions.Swyx [00:24:15]: Which like all-time great product.Kyle [00:24:16]: Pages powers the internet at this point to some degree. Those were places where like clearly there were no like issues like to my knowledge. But it was those things where I’m looking at and going “Okay, well we can’t be running arbitrary Ruby code,” like on everyone’s behalf. Then containerizing all of that up intoUh into actions now where yeah the containerization, is r-really good. The pinning most folks aren’t pinning it the like to a particularSwyx [00:24:48]: ImagesKyle [00:24:48]: Sha, et cetera like their workflows, and so that’s a big that’s a big place Of pain for folks if they’re just doing similar to any dependency management, just V1 or newest or latest, I think. But, that journey from that day to “Okay, we’re just going to run all this arbitrary code, and, it’ll basically be okay,” to now, no, we have, really good containerization. We have a new, underlying, ag-agent, containerization, service. It’s like we’re using it under the hood. It’s through Azure. They recently announced it. The Azure, Dev Compute, but it’s, very fast, very fast compute to be able to, spin up your own cloud agents, or whatnot. We’re using it under the hood for some parts of the new,Swyx [00:25:36]: Microsoft Dev Box?Kyle [00:25:37]: No. Dev Compute, yeah.Swyx [00:25:41]: Hmm. Not finding it just yet.Kyle [00:25:44]: Oh, it’s, it’s in there somewhere.Swyx [00:25:46]: All right. Well, we’ll cut that out.Kyle [00:25:47]: Sorry. But with, Dev Compute, you can, run, really fast, spin up really, small VMs really quickly, so you’re doing a tool callSwyx [00:25:58]: Same conceptKyle [00:25:58]: Just do it containerize exact-exactly. So we’re using that so definitely moving that direction to protect us from every every piece of code that we’re ultimately running.Swyx [00:26:07]: look, that grows into the full SDLC? Code hosting was just the start and and then it’s grown beyond that. Let’s talk about NPM may-maybe ‘cause I think that’s also, a very major point in the industry. I do think, it was looking for a home. It was, kind of struggling as a business, right? I don’t know, I don’t know how you would characterize that whole acquisition and how itNPM, Package Security, and Keeping the Internet RunningKyle [00:26:33]: like when we were talking to the team, I think the big thing for the both of us was to find a way to keep NPM, which was basically powering the internet then and way more so now to some degree running. Keep it going keep continuing to scale. It was having scaling problems, if I recall, back at that time. They were doing some rewrites. ItSwyx [00:27:00]: that’s cute compared to now.Kyle [00:27:01]: Well, that’s the thing is like when I’m talking to folks now, there’s there’s so many more underlying uses of NPM than there were back when we had them join in with GitHub. But that was ultimately the goal. It was really okay, we used to have pages. We have, the world’s code. Let’s make sure that we can keep NPM running well for the world. And we put a bunch of time and investment into fixing some of the underlying backend, changes, some of which we talked about some of the manifest work, et cetera. And then now, really trying to bring the the security posture of NPM up to speed. But, it is a unique challenge in that every move that we make to make it more secure will break a lot of people. And security is paramount. And also, we take it very seriously. We’re, the any time that we have a problem with GitHub or we make a change that makes us more secure but hurts, there’s, a snow day for developers or a really bad fire that they have to go put out. And so we’ve, have changed the 2FA policies. We’ve changed the way the tokens work. When we find tokens that have been exposed or potentially, exposed, we invalidate them, andSwyx [00:28:22]: I love that feature in GitHub. Yeah, it’s greatKyle [00:28:23]: That creates issues, but, the but that’s the thing is we’re trying to push the community, forward without necessarily, doing something that is going to break the contract that’s been for 15 years or close to it or some amount of years on NPM.Slop Forks, Vendoring, and the Future of Open Source Supply ChainsSwyx [00:28:43]: I think the— So now we’re talking about, open source and publishing. And I think there’s something here with what people are calling slop forks, which, I think Malta from Vercel is doing. And, part of me thinks, well, the way to get past any vulnerabilities, we just, let’s just get rid of the concept of NPM. And we only publish source code. And anytime you want to import it you have your coding agent look at it and then adapt whatever subset you’re going to use into your vendor it. But, the AI vendor it. Is that realistic? I don’t know. Is it— Will that solve all our security issues? I don’t know.Kyle [00:29:24]: I don’t think it’ll solve I so Mitchell was just talking Mitchell Hashimoto Was just talking about this today, and I think that I-in some ways, it’s all all things, old or new again? Yeah, absolutely vendoring everything. Like I do I do remember twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen.Swyx [00:29:42]: This is Yeah. Let’s, we must return toKyle [00:29:43]: That’s what is We were vendoring everything. We were having actual discussions around, or at least I remember we were “Should we take this full thing?” “Why is this so big? We only need this one file.” And so I do think there’s something true there where having either taking only what you need or the dependencies just getting incredibly small over time, I think will help to some degree, but it’s not going to solve the fundamental problem, I don’t think, because the vulnerabilities in an agent looking at them, there’s time and time again, there’s a million different ways in which we can convince an agent that this thing is, secure or not and pull it in. Or we can do static code analysis or runtime testing to say whether the code works or not. That is, I think, the step that needs to continue to be, invested in. The question is just on, how much scope. Should it be this enormous project that I’m pulling down, or should it be this piece? Either most companies are running some amount of security checking on the on the packages that they’re bringing in or vendoring. That I think won’t change. That’s like what advanced security does to some degree, Socket does some degree. Like everyone is doing a piece of that. How we each do that like especially when we’re talking to enterprise customers, is just like very different. No there’s no one wants one single way to do it. And I think that’s always been GitHub’s, unique position in the world. I talk a lot to maintainers, I talk a lot to folks about this. It’s we’re— we rarely start like a process and a practice and like push it onto the community. We usually wait for the sort of like RFC process socially or literally, everyone agreeing, and then we’ll cement something in. Because otherwise we’reMaintainers, RFCs, Vouching, and the Social Layer of TrustSwyx [00:31:35]: That fits your role in the ecosystem, yeahKyle [00:31:36]: We’re GitHub. Yeah, we don’t want to shape the whole thing. We want it to be figured out. But like how do you balance that like sort of Role in the industry to keep everything as secure as is possible and make sure that you’re you’re not going to be compromised as a human, ‘cause that’s usually how it all happens. And Not not create a process or lock us into a flow that you’re not going to or like Mitchell’s not going to or other open source projects aren’t going to like. That’s always been a tricky balance for us, and I think that’s something that we haven’t talked about enough is we’re not going to be able to fix everything for everyone in a way that everyone is going to like. So tell, help us, tell us what is working. When Mitchell was talking about, the Upvote, the upSwyx [00:32:22]: I was going to bring up his thing. Yeah.Kyle [00:32:23]: I forget what it Yeah. When he’s talking to us, I was chatting with him and talking to him about this and I put it on Twitter and we talked to, also over DM, was “We’re going to keep working.” but I think the important thing is I do actually want to hear what isn’t working for you. And as, be as specific and clear for your project as is possible. And to every piece of credit over the many years that we’ve known each other through the industry, he’s always done that and I appreciate that ‘cause there are places that we need to fix up, and we hear from him, and we’ll fix up just like we do all other kinds of maintainers. But that that process between making those types of improvements and being more secure and like creating, I forget what he calls it’s not the proof process, not the claims process. Do what I’m talking about? He has that he his projects have a way for you to kind of like,Swyx [00:33:13]: VouchKyle [00:33:13]: Vouch. Thank you. Yeah. He has like the vouch system for saying, “Hey, you should accept my PRs.” That’s beenSwyx [00:33:20]: I just built this into GitHub. I don’t know.Kyle [00:33:22]: Well, see, but that’s the thing is that you say that and like he and his community really likes this and then I’ll go talk to other maintainers and other maintainers, globally, and they’re “No, this doesn’t work for me.” And that is the tension, but also the kind of beauty of GitHub, depending on which way you look at it is we want to help maintainers, so we create all these tools to let you have more control over how much you take in from AI and PRs. But you can also use this. What You can go use this project, and if it takes off and becomes the kind of mostly standard, then yeah, we probably wouldn’t enforce it but we would add it in because that’s the flow that we tend to do?Swyx [00:34:02]: I hear a lot of people don’t know the history of the pull request. And like like that’s how, that’s something that GitHub standardized basically.Kyle [00:34:08]: Yeah. It was a very messy process Like beforehand, and now the we have the benefit of it being the process? And now we have to go and Figure out the next best process or what adaptations change, or what does a pull request look like when eighty percent of your PRs are just coming from your agents and not From other devs?Swyx [00:34:31]: Do you like the prompt request idea from Peter?Kyle [00:34:34]: like I think that for each like each idea I think has its merits. I’m not, I’m not avoiding saying anything good or bad, but I feel like I’ve seen a version of we have that we have entire Thomas’ store. Take all the assets of what you’ve built and put that in. I think that’s got great ideas. There’s all these various permutations of the PR flow, but I think the reason why there’s not a single answer is ultimately we’re trying to codify trust. We’re trying to say “Okay, if Sean reviews this I’m going to trust it because you’re Sean or you’re the senior dev or you’re the whatever.” And right now, when we are working in a flow where an agent writes code and another agent reviews code and then Kyle goes and looks at it the trust is kind of diffuse. And most of the tools that we’re talking about are talking more about verification flows. We have more assets to look at, so I can probably say whether this is a good PR or not. But that still doesn’t solve, I think, the human problem of I’m looking at a PR and I want to know if I can trust it. And we’re still, we still tend to use human signals for that? Mitchell approving it or Kyle approving it or whatever. And so I think that’s, I think that’s why most of these options haven’t really solved it is because, it’s a social problem ultimately. It’s a it’s a human problem to review it and agree. Or you fully trust the tool and you’re imbuing that tool with full trust Which I think in some cases that absolutely exists.AI-Generated PRs, Trust, and the Waymo AnalogySwyx [00:36:08]: And so like in the same way that there will be a tipping point in society when we don’t allow humans to drive anymore Because machines are measurably better than Than humans. I’m looking for that tipping point, right? Like Mythos is ridiculously expensive. Someday we’ll have Mythos on a desktop. I don’t know. Will, does that change the equation?Kyle [00:36:30]: I think it’s more I took a Waymo here, and I was on my phone and not looking around at all. There are other, self-driving, vehicles that I would not trust while, staring at the road. And I think that trust is something that isSwyx [00:36:48]: Is this a Zoox thing? What is itKyle [00:36:50]: I think that is both. I think that is both. LikeSwyx [00:36:53]: There’s Zoox in this robo taxi. That’s it. It’sKyle [00:36:56]: Well, depending on what level Of self-driving. But, my point is sort of that I think part of that is I strongly believe that’s, a mixture of verifiable proof. Like how many accidents, how much data, and so on, and the human aspect of how I feel when I’m in this car, what it tells me, et cetera. And so that’s why I think some of the like Some of these some of our AI tools tend to, imbue me with more of that feeling of trust, even if the data says this is 100% accurate. I feel like it takes more time for us to go, “Should I trust this or not?” And that’s in the soft sense of, startups with high agency, weekend projects, and open source. And then there’s enterprises and regulated industries and everything else, and that is an even harder problem to go solve because even when it is fully verified, not only do you have to have trust from the humans on the team, you probably have to have trust from multinational,Swyx [00:37:55]: Oh my GodKyle [00:37:55]: Multi governments around the world and regulating agencies. And so that’s where I feel like until we tip over to your point on the sort of like human EQ side of it. I feel okay this feels okay I’ve been proven enough. Then the ball will start to roll a lot faster, where we’ll end up getting to the “Okay, we can trust this,” and feel good about it in the Most difficult of cases.Reputation, Sponsors, Stars, and Bot Activity on GitHubSwyx [00:38:18]: If human trust is the thing that matters, I feel like GitHub as the developer social network could maybe do more there. Like vouchers are one system But, we have star counts, and then we have Contributor rights, and that’s it. And I feel like there should be more in that space. I don’t know if there’s any other design decisions there.Kyle [00:38:37]: I think that one of the places that we don’t really expose right now in this sort of way is, some degree of like hard trust and support, which would like for me is like sponsors is a good example of that.Swyx [00:38:49]: Ah.Kyle [00:38:49]: It like costs you something. To prove that I believe in your project and I trust you To some degree or I want to support you at the very least.Swyx [00:38:56]: Solve payments for open source. Why not?Kyle [00:38:58]: I think that I think that like as we keep moving forward, right, there’s more and more projects where I’m, adding more and more dollars into sponsors personally because I want to like support them, but I also like know of I’ve probably never met them in person, but, I know of enough of their work that I want to support them. I think the thing that I don’t love about stars or commit counts or anything else is ultimately, even with all of the various, abuse and de-spamming and deduplication work that we do or anti-abuse work that we do, these are all, not active social signals. They’re passive ones that are ultimately gamifiable. And you may trust me, but another open source maintainer may not. And on what heuristic should you be, trusting me? That I think, is kind of where some of our thinking is right now. What signal from me is most important to you? You— If you can define that potentially, honestly in an agentic workflow that’s what we see some of these open source projects do, where you have GitHub actions, and then you have like an agentic workflow that’s calling AI, and you’re setting these rules. Like if Kyle has submitted and gotten accepted PRs across any given project and has a social handle tied to his account in GitHub, and that social account’s older than a certain amount. Really complex measures that matter to you ‘cause most open source projects have that heuristic built into their heads, if not written down in the contributing guidelines. You could take that and then go apply that and then just say, “Oh, we’re not going to accept this PR.” Building something that is, I think, malleable to everyone’s needs, is a little bit better, rather than going “Hmm, this account’s too young.” Because what happens? The attackers just go and go and create a multitude of accounts, and they wait Until it ages up. Needs to have a certain amount of stars. That’s how star inflation happens. Need to have a certain amount of reposSwyx [00:40:46]: Oh my God. YeahKyle [00:40:47]: With PRs. They all just create repos and submit PRs to each other, and then they come in and do something nefarious. And so, it’s hard. It’s hard to find the measure. So I think we’re, we’re looking more at how can we provide you tools so you can kind of choose what’s best for you. And of course, we’ll give you some standards. But the trust vector, gets down to I don’t know, some version of like human digital ID like everyone’s been talking about. Like how do I prove that it’s meSwyx [00:41:13]: Give me your eyeballsKyle [00:41:14]: On the internet. Give me your eyeballs. Exactly.Swyx [00:41:18]: The I got to keep moving on Topics, but obviously I can go all day on this stuff because, I’ve been involved in GitHub and open source My entire professional career. Stars. Very superficial. Everyone knows it. But I think time to one hundred thousand stars is the fastest I’ve ever seen. Like people just reached that in I don’t know, months. And then like at the same time I don’t trust it right? Like how many of these are real or bot or like whatever. I don’t know how to ask this but like what can we do about it? LikeKyle [00:41:49]: JustSwyx [00:41:49]: Is stars broken? Is stars fine?Kyle [00:41:51]: I think that there’s kind of two, there’s like two pieces. Obviously we’re constantly like trying to find ways in which like your users are producing spam, which would, I would include like be like only doing star gamification. When we find them, we pluck ‘em out and we,Swyx [00:42:08]: But it’s like a Whac-A-MoleKyle [00:42:10]: It’s a hundred percent like a Whac-A-MoleSwyx [00:42:11]: There’s no wayKyle [00:42:11]: Now, powered by AI to be helpful. But I think more so what I’m seeing is, a lot of the like fastest time to X tends to be because we’re now inviting so many more people into like software development on GitHub That like the zeitgeist is just swarming? And it’sSwyx [00:42:32]: It’s not just developers anymoreKyle [00:42:33]: And it’s not you and I. Like like however you want to say like what a developer is it’s not just folks who have been coding for a very long time. It’s folks that have maybe started coding or only joined in since the AI era. And nowSwyx [00:42:44]: what’s the latest Octoverse number? I know eighty million was my lastRem- member that a number of developers on GitHubKyle [00:42:50]: Oh, we’re over 200 million now.Swyx [00:42:53]: Okay. Well, so you see?Kyle [00:42:55]: Like over 200 million developers now.Swyx [00:42:56]: But it’s not developers, right? It’s, it’s people with a GitHub account.What Counts as a Developer in the AI Era?Kyle [00:43:00]: So, so this is, this is the biggest debate that I would say, everyone loves to have at GitHub at this point. From my perspective, right, I think that there’s, there’s clearly a difference between, professional enterprise developer and then developers. But I think that I think that the idea that we should be I don’t know, splitting hairs or segmenting developers in the early era of software development is, not worth our not worth the time. SoSwyx [00:43:29]: When you get into gatekeepingKyle [00:43:31]: 100%Swyx [00:43:31]: What is a developer?Kyle [00:43:31]: 100%. ‘Cause I wasn’t a developer when I started writing code? I was going toSwyx [00:43:36]: Oh, no. I made— I cloned a thing, seven years before I learned to code. And then I and then I wrote about my learning to code journey, and people Just called me a fraud ‘cause I had a GitHub account. And I’m “Well, no, I just use GitHub, but I don’t know-” “I didn’t know what I was doing.”Kyle [00:43:49]: I I remember that. I remember those sets of posts, and like that’s, that’s b******t. So I fight very clearly on the line of, if you create code, if you have an idea and you create it into some way of, I’m, I’m going to run it and use the app right now, you may still use AI in that moment, but that’s okay. At some point you’re going to do the next thing. You’re going to create a big— You’re going to have to learn about this database. You’re going to fix a bug, whatever. We’re all on some same journey, and those people are also hearing about the great new agent skill package or a new CLI tool or a new whatever. And those projects are going up because you want to be a part of this moment, just like I wanted to be a part of the Ruby community when Ruby was popping off when I started becoming a developer, and now I can just click the star button. And so I think that yes, there’s clearly some amount of like spamming and game gamification that we’re working against, but I really think we’re just seeing this whole new cohort of folks that are moving from technology to technology because they’re not working on a 20-year-old software application. They’re working on a side app that they built on the weekend for their friends or for their new idea or whatever. And that’s how you see these enormous charts going up and to the right with With stars.Swyx [00:44:59]: I think something that’s remarkable is the persistence or, that GitHub extends to those folks. Usually when I see platforms go into a new audience, they usually have to, have like a second platform with a different name that wraps the main platform. But somehow GitHub has been able to sort of persist and extend, and it’s friendly and whatever? So it’s, it’s nice.Spark, Low-Code, and Always Showing the CodeKyle [00:45:19]: I that’s partially why I think as we’ve tried to move into I don’t know, more like low-code-y things. We so we started working on Spark as like a way to, build an app and run it. I think that the reality is that we anytime we try to, kind of put even a veneer on top of it without when we put a veneer on top of something, we still always show you the code. That’s kind of like a tenant. We’re never going to, hide the code from you ever, because whatSwyx [00:45:52]: Why would you?Kyle [00:45:52]: That’s, yeah, that’s the whole point? However, I think that what we learned with things like Spark is that really the value of Spark for most devs is, easy runtime. And you may have a runtime or a host that you’re going to use for that or you just build something and run it but, the package of making that even more simple isn’t really needed for folks that are trying to build software and not just trying to build, an app, which is, slightly different, a slightly different goal. So I want to get you in, I want to get you comfortable. I think the best thing for me as, someone that did not traditionally come into software dev way back, I want anyone to be able to breach that chasm and not be in the I don’t know, I feel like we’re, we’re still in an era of, STEM. I’ve got a 12-year-old and an eight-year-old, and it’s “We got to get ‘em into STEM,”? Over and over. And I like I do, I do the things that good parents do. I was “Oh, you want to do coding?” “Yes, I want to do coding.” Do coding classes. But now they’re just not afraid of doing software. And that’s, I think, the thing that’s honestly kept me at GitHub for so long. Anyone should be able to go and build a thing, just like I can go change a light switch in my house. I’m not going to go into the breaker box ‘cause I’ll probably kill myself? But, I can go change that light switch. Everyone should be able to go and say, “This fricking app doesn’t do what I want. I want it to work like this.” And that I think, is what’s kind of kept us all connected with GitHub through the years and some and during the easiest of times or in the hard times because of that opportunity of, we’re the home for all developers, and we want everyone to be able to have that feeling that we’ve had of, had an idea, I created it and holy s**t here it is.Swyx [00:47:37]: Here it is. All right, I’m going to try to do more spicy questions.GitHub’s Hardest Scaling Moment: Growth, Agents, and UptimeKyle [00:47:42]: Great.Swyx [00:47:42]: Is it an easy time now or a hard time?Kyle [00:47:45]: Oh at GitHub? It’s a hard time. Like, it’s a hard time and also, I was just with my team and I said, “This is also, the best and most exciting time that I think I can remember at GitHub.” BecauseSwyx [00:47:57]: Best of times, worst of times. It’s never oneKyle [00:47:59]: ‘cause we’ve we were talking about Octoverse reports and, usually we do an Octoverse report once a year, and we look at the numbers, and we say, “Oh my goodness.” I was at Universe in October saying, “This was the fastest year of growth that we’ve ever had,” right? And now we’re doing more in a month than we did in a year last year.Swyx [00:48:20]: You’re talking about PRs.Kyle [00:48:21]: Commits.Swyx [00:48:21]: Commits, yeah.Kyle [00:48:22]: PRs. Kind of like you name it by roughly every measure that we’re looking at, there’s some amount of sort of growth that is much bigger, and that is breaking our system in new ways, not old ways. Like webhooks were always notoriously, unreliable over the years?Swyx [00:48:38]: Whose fault is that?Kyle [00:48:39]: not anymore mine, but for a period of time, I’m sure you could pull up a tweet that was “It was me. I’m sorry.” but, now, that got rewritten at a scale level that is still working and is not having problems today. Now what we’re finding isn’t just the isn’t the-The simple stuff that folks are on the sometimes on Twitter or on the internet are “Hey, why is this like this?” Sure. There’s absolutely silly problems that we shouldn’t exist. But now we’re talking about, unique, novel permission problems that happen only at a scale across all different objects or whatever, that now we have to go rewrite this underlying system. And so it’s, there are problems that yeah, caught us off guard, which I think I said. Like the growth is astronomical, but also we’re making such material progress in that I’m excited once we’re once we’ve kind of like reimagined the underlying foundation layer, or pieces of it at least, what’s going to be possible when it’s not just all of us and all the new people that are being developers and all of their agents and all the tools like working together. Because that’ll still happen in that in that GitHub tool, that GitHub community. But it’s a it’s a hard day anytime we can’t give you what you’re looking for. We have the same problem internally. We operate through github. Com. Of course, we have backups when things go down and whatnot for our own operations but we feel it too. If it’s not working it’s not working for us, and that’s kind of like the promise of dogfooding for GitHub. It’s always been true. We’re using the same tool you’re using. We’re not using a super secret version. We and so we also need it to be great for us for our customers of course for open source. And now an exponential growth of agents, Doing it too.Swyx [00:50:32]: I wanted to load for audio listeners who maybe haven’t seen your tweets, whatever. So one billion commits in twenty-five. Now it’s two hundred and seventy-five million per week on pace for fourteen billion this year, if growth remains linear. Is that still the pace? I don’t know. It’s been aKyle [00:50:48]: it’s, it’s speedingSwyx [00:50:50]: Roughly.Kyle [00:50:50]: It’s still speeding up.Swyx [00:50:51]: It’s, it’s April, so yeah.Kyle [00:50:51]: Exactly. This was in April.Swyx [00:50:53]: All right. So basically you have fourteen x growth, right? Year on year on year. And I think that’s a scaling issue. I think, I’m going to like try to really steel man this thing. People have experienced fourteen x growth. They haven’t had your downtime. And that’s like— C-can we go dig into that? Why? Like what’s the— what broke? What are we doing to fix it? Like just anything for the community to reassure them.Why GitHub Reliability Is Breaking in New WaysKyle [00:51:18]: so there’s a Like I was saying, there’s a couple different places that we’ve seen the growth issues. Some of the growth issues, which is why we’re t— I was talking about pushing hard on more CPUs is in actions in particular. More tools, more agents, more PRs mean more builds, more builds mean more CPUs. And so we are expanding through not just our data center, but obviously we were talking about moving to Azure and moving to, adding an additional cloud compute because we simply need more CPUs. Not as much GPUs. We definitely need GPUs too, but now CPUs are becoming a factor.Swyx [00:51:53]: It’s very CPU heavy.Kyle [00:51:54]: Underneath the hood when it comes to some of the underlying services, we’ve been breaking up over the years our database infrastructure, so that way we have, more cognitive separation between our the various services. The place that we continue to have pain is in, permissioning. And so right now m-many of our permissioning layers sit into a database that we like internally call MySQL One, and old Hubbers will know what I’m talking about. And so we’ve been pulling things out of MySQL One for many years, because like and we use we use Vitess and we use other technologies to shard and we do it as one bigSwyx [00:52:31]: Famous thing, PlanetScale was born from this andKyle [00:52:32]: A hundred percent. Sam Old Hubber and friend. And so finding these opportunities to like break this out and then do that globally. The other thing that I think is interesting and both a unique opportunity and tricky is we also run everything I just talked about in a black box container with GitHub Enterprise Server for people that work on-prem. So we take everything I just said, and we also do it on-prem, and we also do all of that and we do it in a data residence setup for customers that need to have their data in a single location. Each of these has the unique characteristic around how we’re sort of storing that data in MySQL or in a permissioning setup. That’s where some of these outages have oc-occurred, where you’re seeing it more like across the board rather than just like the one pieceSwyx [00:53:17]: Filling the databaseKyle [00:53:17]: Isn’t quite working. Exactly. And so part of it is that. I think there’s been some other places where agents are much more or more projects appear to be moving towards monorepo versus we were going the other direction for many years in the industry. Repos were smaller, but there were more of them, and now we’re seeing the opposite. Repos are bigger, and there’s, not fewer of them per se ‘cause there’s new growth, but, we’re just seeing many more big repos. Big repos, big monorepos have always had, a unique performance problem. Because each one, is slightly different if, particularly if the underlying blobs are incredibly big Inside the repos. And so we’ve done a ton of work that you pro— like most people haven’t probably experienced, unless you’re in this case of the monorepo. But that Git, infrastructure layer improvement does help the overall, system because, many of the improvements that make monorepos work better make all repo infrastructure work better. And so, I could kind of keep going down the line where it’s another thing where we’re moving out of, We’re changing how we do j I’ll just say job queuing for lack of a better, explanation changing the underlying technologies there.Swyx [00:54:32]: I spent two years being a job queuing guy, so.Kyle [00:54:34]: And so it’s kind of a little bit of a little bit of piece by piece, and it’s mostly because as we were— as it was built, we built everything in a way that assumed, I guess in some ways that the size of the pipe of work was going to remain the same. There’s just going to be more people coming through each of those pipes. But instead now in places whereA git push was, generally a certain size for example, is now, no longer true.Swyx [00:55:03]: Oh, yeah.Kyle [00:55:03]: OrSwyx [00:55:05]: I push a thousandKyle [00:55:06]: On the average. 100%Swyx [00:55:06]: A thousand line commits like dailyKyle [00:55:07]: Same thing with PRs. Like PRs same thing. And like we’ve talked about optimizing that and making changes where, and there were technology choices that did not work there? And it got slow, and it didn’t It was not fast. It did not do what the users wanted. And so we’ve been reeling that all out and going “Okay, that’s just not right. Let’s stop putting good money after bad and do it the do it the right way or the right way now.” So there’s It’s a it’s a lot of things, not quite when I’ve experienced scale at GitHub historically, it’s almost always two options that we’ve used. We go vertical scaling, particularly with databases, right? And we go horizontal scaling. Oh, we just have more people using this service. Great. We’re going to add more servers, and we rack them in our data center, or we use it in a cloud. And now we’re sort of in a like diagonal, where like vertical doesn’t really work anymore. Horizontal isn’t work either because we’re all We all have some CPU or GPU constraints in the world now, and now we have to go in and like crack open services that have been running for 10 or 15 years and go, “Okay, the rules of this service have legitimately changed, and now we have to rewrite them.” None of this is an excuse. This is like we’re We have to do the work. We have to make it better.Swyx [00:56:22]: actually as an infra guy, I’m “This is like one of the most fascinating scaling challenges I’ve ever seen.”Kyle [00:56:26]: That’s that’s, that’s the thing that’s the thing that it’s hard for Like when we weren’t talking about it publicly, and I was like I came out, and I was “Hey, I just want to explain what’s going on.” Part of it comes from a very old GitHub ethos, which is it’s our it’s our uptime. It’s down. W What I know you’re a developer, so you’re, you’re inclined to want to understand more what’s going on. But at the same time us going “Hey, this service didn’t, perform the way we expected, and now we have to go change it,” we weren’t We’re not trying to hide anything from you in that. It’s that well, that’s our problem because you expect us to be up, and I think that’s really baked into the core, origins of GitHub. And so now what we’re trying to do as a team is do all that work and just tell Talk about it more and just share you more technical details, write these blogs, write the posts, get the engineers who built it after they finish the work, just tell you “Okay, this is what we did.” I think that’s the contract that we want to bring back to the community and say, “Hey, we’re still very serious about what we’re doing. We haven’t been telling you about each piece. So let’s do that and we’re going to keep building this and scaling it in a way to support the If it’s not 14, then it’s 30 or it’s 50 or whatever the next exponential growth is going to be.”Swyx [00:57:40]: First of all, fantastic answer. I thinkKyle [00:57:44]: And I apologize in advance if like any of thatSwyx [00:57:47]: I think it’s all niceKyle [00:57:47]: Is slightly incorrect just simply becauseSwyx [00:57:49]: NoKyle [00:57:49]: I’m not the I’m still in the weeds with this but it’s not my day-to-day. But like that’s the thing is we’re all looking at it to that level.Swyx [00:57:58]: And obviously, if people want to help, they can join.Kyle [00:58:00]: AbsolutelySwyx [00:58:01]: So like I think the that is, good. I think people also would just want to know when are, when are you through the thick of it right? Like is there Have we identified all the issues? Is this just never-ending? Is Git broken? Do we have to change the Git, protocol? Like what how much is breaking, right? It’s been a while. And so I think people do want to know What’s the path back to the reliability that everyone expects out of GitHub.The Reliability Roadmap: Databases, Compute, and Load TestingKyle [00:58:30]: So like our availability in like recent few weeks has been much better than the three weeks before that or the three weeks before that and so forth. And so a lot of these improvements are still very much paying off for us. I think that we’re still working on that that database piece that I mentioned, and that just is a little bit physics a little bit of time to get it to get it fixed up. Because we have to the wSwyx [00:58:59]: My the answer I had in my head Was call YouTube.Kyle [00:59:03]: So YouTube ultimately isSwyx [00:59:04]: ‘Cause they also use Vitess.Kyle [00:59:05]: They also use Vitess. But the,Swyx [00:59:09]: Like whoever was the guy, the scaling guy at YouTube?Kyle [00:59:11]: Like that’s That I believe went to PlanetScale, and was a part of PlanetScale too. But likeSwyx [00:59:16]: Oh, you mean Sugo?Kyle [00:59:17]: I think so. Yeah. And so, and so likeSwyx [00:59:19]: He’s at Superbase now.Kyle [00:59:20]: Ah.Swyx [00:59:21]: There’s a whole Postgres drama Thing there, right?Kyle [00:59:25]: So like some of it’s that. I think the other piece of it is, our move to get additional compute will alleviate a fair amount of this particularly on the action side ‘cause a lot of the underlying, outages is actually related to,Swyx [00:59:39]: I’ll tell you actions is the it’s the root of all evil.Kyle [00:59:42]: it’s all It has its prosSwyx [00:59:47]: Some extentKyle [00:59:47]: In that it’s the core It’s the core compute layer for either CI, side projects, et cetera.Swyx [00:59:52]: Is the main money maker? Like isKyle [00:59:54]: Actions?Swyx [00:59:55]: No? I don’t know.Kyle [00:59:56]: like ActionsSwyx [00:59:57]: I pay a lot for compute, right?Kyle [00:59:58]: like Actions is definitely a piece of the overall business, but I would say that like we ultimately alsoSwyx [01:00:06]: StorageKyle [01:00:07]: Give away so many like minutes as part of our entitlements as that. But that’s what I was saying. Everyone’s using it. We talk about it as CI/CD, but the reality is people use it for CI/CD andSwyx [01:00:17]: AutomationKyle [01:00:17]: Various processing and automation, exactly. And so like part of it is also that like compute piece that is also alleviating some of our availability.Swyx [01:00:26]: This is my abuse of, actions. I have beenKyle [01:00:29]: Oh, yeahSwyx [01:00:29]: I have been scraping for every day, and just like I just tell people toKyle [01:00:34]: Thank you for your serviceSwyx [01:00:35]: Go dog because I But this is also how I track, actions all time. So anyway,Kyle [01:00:41]: So like some of it’s going to be that. I would say that like each month I expect in the next three months, you’re going to see fewer and fewer moments where we have an availability problem Where things are going to go down, and that’s not just it’s stopped. It’s that we’re still experiencing faster growth than ever before. It’s just that those underlying improvements that we’ve been hard at work on, are finally paying off. It’s just that the improvements take-It’s less about, these incremental improvements where you make a small change, and you get this big output. It’s now material change That takes a bit of time, and then you see a step change in our availability.Swyx [01:01:14]: There’s a thing we used to do at Amazon, I don’t know if this is, a thing, but, if automated software verification or simulation of load testing and all that. I’m, I’m just like at this point, you have a whole map of GitHub. And, while you can assume whatever growth rates on whatever dimensions that you care about and just run it through a system, right? I feel like there’s a way to, I don’t know, have a systems model of GitHub and, see what breaks. But obviously, I’m pro— I’m not that close to the problem, so.Kyle [01:01:39]: But yeah, so yes, totally. And I would say, that’s been the journey and work that’s been happening since, I would say November to now. Because October, right, was the time where we even said, “Oh, look at the growth,” and, and then you start to see the chartSwyx [01:01:53]: It doesn’tKyle [01:01:53]: Really pick up. And it’s oh, we tested it at N amount of scale, and now it’s at, N cubed maybe like in some in some vectors. And so now we have to go and build it that way and make sure that it can handle all of that scale.Swyx [01:02:08]: Let’s talk Copilot. So how many original creators of Copilot are there?The State of Copilot: From Code Completion to AgentsKyle [01:02:15]: Oh, geez.Swyx [01:02:18]: ‘Cause I count like twelve authenticated.Kyle [01:02:19]: We haven’t— Yeah, I forget, all joking aside, I forget the number of people that were on, the original, GitHub Copilot team. But, there was a bigger group.Swyx [01:02:30]: I heard it’s, it’s Alex. It there’s, there’s, a three peopleKyle [01:02:32]: Alex worked on it. Udo worked on it. There’s a a bunch of people that were on the team.Swyx [01:02:35]: And then their entire management line. Okay. So enormously successful at its in its in its day. I think the last number, I think Mario Came to my conference, and talked about the hundred million dollar mark. I think most recently three hundred. I might be out of date as well there.Kyle [01:02:53]: I don’t think we shared the dollar amounts.Swyx [01:02:54]: All right, cool. Just, what’s the state of Copilot? It’s, it’s obviously as a concept brought into More of Microsoft. But just at GitHub.Kyle [01:03:03]: so I think One of, one of the challenges is, that we had with Copilot, right, is that we came out the gate with code completion, and it was super great, powerful, et cetera. And then what we initially worked on after that sort of, initial year and a half, was, going after fine-tuning because our customers, the industry on the whole was really talking about, okay, well, how do we get more more correctness or performance out of this? And so we were working on a whole bunch of efforts to do fine-tuning on, larger and larger code completions or, next edit suggestions with fine-tuning, et cetera.Swyx [01:03:43]: And let me clarify. Is this fine-tuning one model or per customer a fine-tuned model forKyle [01:03:48]: Per cust— Well, both. But, but, fine-tuning one model for the overall, use, and then fine-tuning per customer that wants this as, a service effectively. And around that time is when the next generation of models came, and that’s around the same time that all these other AI, coding tools came to be because the models really sped up. And so everyone kind of, will ask, “Well, what happened to GitHub Copilot?” there’s all this time, and I would say that we were on an era of going okay, we want to improve everyone’s results, and so let’s focus in on fine-tuning because that’ll give us these better results. And then the models got better. And so then ever since, we’ve been really on this kind of journey to go, okay of course, we have, this great code completion, and we’ve done a ton of investment in the better underlying models that we have post-trained better, next set of suggestions with post-training language specific models. All this stuff that kind of, sits in the ether of GitHub Copilot is code completion, but also have now ha— now have, a single underlying, SDK and harness for our coding agent Copilot ultimately. The new CLI, the new desktop app, cloud agents that use the same SDK. And so there was this moment of both, really trying to figure out what our customers want, models, Sherlocking us a little bit, then going and saying, “Okay, what does everyone ultimately need?” And what we think is that it’s not solely about the code generation. It’s really about having the ability to use these coding agent brained, harnesses or run times across, not just the coding experience where I’m going to, send a bunch of tasks out, or I’m going to use Fleet to break up a single task or autopilot similar to Goal all this stuff. But also how do I do that for all of my security remediation? How do I do that for every GitHub issue that comes in, just stick a coding agent on it just to see if it’s possible? How do go through my repository and see all of my documentation and extract out okay, this doesn’t actually match? That amount of sort of AI coding agent automation, I think is a big part of what we see when we’re looking at, okay, we’re still kind of going through a similar but very different flow. It’s just all happening at the same time. There’s not really the same, I’m going to create an issue to track my idea of building this. You’re probably just going to go, do it.Swyx [01:06:22]: Just do it.Kyle [01:06:22]: You’re going to say, “Hey, just build this,” right? And, there are still tons of, open issues and projects, et cetera, that are using issues like Peter and OpenClaw to be able to sic all of his agent on that. That kind of infrastructure layer and a really great coding experience that allows you to handle the sort of multiplexing, aspect is what we’ve built, are still building with GitHub Copilot. And so for folks that haven’t really used GitHub Copilot sinceThe thing that got them excited about this Which I I get. I really encourage you to, look at especially the GitHub, Copilot app. That’s my new daily driver. I obviously, if you prefer the CLI, also the CLI, be able to use all the models, the bring your own key side of it. We’re still improving our own models and using those too. And, it’s just like a very different experience, but I think that broader sense is of like software development and how coding agents can help throughout, not just Writing the code, or even verifying it or deploying it is is where we have this unique, angle. The other side is the context piece. LikeCopilot’s Future: Context, Taste, and Personal Developer WorkflowsSwyx [01:07:44]: Oh, GodKyle [01:07:44]: we’re still It’s like one of those things where I think the the final thing that will let me ultimately, feel complete at GitHub is, when we have this ability for GitHub to act like Kyle wants it to act Or Shawn or whatever. And we all codify that in rules and in memory and everything else, butSwyx [01:08:03]: Well, that’s an open research problem, right? Like it’sKyle [01:08:05]: A hundred percent. A hundred percentSwyx [01:08:07]: AGI when you get it. Yeah.Kyle [01:08:07]: A hundred percent. But, if we can even just do it where my team, Without me having to codify everything, and as our methods shift on purpose to be able to have that full experience and all the understanding of what’s happening in my dependencies or open source, that feels like a big place for us to be able to continue to provide something really unique and valuable with GitHub Copilot.Swyx [01:08:29]: Is there a form factor that we haven’t explored? I think like we did code completion Then we did kind of let’s broadly call it agentic IDE Which Cursor Famously popularized, and then now it’s, now it’s all about the sort of agent orchestration Background agent, whatever. And then there’s the security review. I feel like everyone’s like just throwing agents at everything. The entire SDLC has Just, covered with agents. Are we like at the end of history here, basically? Like is it just refinements from here on out?Kyle [01:09:04]: I think that we’re all still in such this hypermyopic era of AI Where the reality is that for various, boring security and governance reasons at least for most people’s work, why is my coding agent, even if it’s all background agents, background running not, losing all the context that’s available to it across everything that I’m doing outside of coding? I think the most interesting thing to me in AI is actual ambient AI, not insert assistant name thing or, I’ve tried just about every pin in tool and whatever, and they don’t work the way that I’m looking for them to work because they are just trying to capture, and then they are trying to codify and then recall. And I think the thing that I’m looking for, back to the very beginning, I’m looking to be building out the next version of webhooks or, implementing a new feature, and it for it to know every spec doc, every email, the conversations that I’ve had online, everything about how this could be implemented and be able to, use that as part of its decision-making and none of these tools are ultimately doing this. So I think that it’s as if, software development work was a single lane task, was like it only needs a developer. Once I once I write the perfect code, we’ll be done here, but that’s just never been true. It’s all the context of the other team members, what the business is doing what’s popular right now, and I think that’s this huge opportunity for us to go much broader than really excellent coding agents? And that is honestly why I think OpenClaw has been so interesting is that sure, it’s connecting to all the data, sources that Kyle the human cares about, and now my question’s “Okay, how can I take all that and use that every day as a software dev connected together, not just have a new way to kick off a coding agent?” And that’s where we’re at. We’re saying, “Okay, I’m going to go use this CLI under the hood or this SDK,” but that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about I’m having a conversation with you it downloads the podcast, and it realizes, “Oh, Kyle, sounds like Kyle needs this app or this thing or this “ That level ofSwyx [01:11:16]: Just recommends it.Kyle [01:11:16]: That level of, that level of connectivity I think is where we still have a ton of ways to go in software because then when we have that red thread we want to pull, that idea, it can not only use the perfect way to write that code, but instead all of the sort of taste and judgment calls and expertise that I’ve earned or that we’ve earned as a group and use it as part of the actual implementation.Swyx [01:11:42]: The extreme of it is AI runs your life, right? And I think there’s a scary inversion of control in the way that I literally doing it in the way that developers mean it in terms of frameworks Like the Hollywood principle, “Don’t call me, I’ll call you.” Like there at some point there is an inversion of control where, you should you stop telling what the AI, the AI what to do. AI tells you what to do. And, that’s a little bit scary, but also, maybe better.Kyle [01:12:10]: like Nat, I think Nat Friedman shared this in a like a Stripe event like talking about his OpenClaw was, he connected OpenClaw to his cameras, and it was, watching him.Swyx [01:12:20]: It redirected his Uber. And it,Kyle [01:12:23]: there’s a degree of this where I was I actually would love OpenClaw to tell me to Drink water. I don’t know that I want it to be, Changing where my car goes, but I do think that’s kind of what I’m talking about, which is it needs to have so much more information at its disposal for it to be helpful to me, and I still don’t think we’re, anywhere near talking about AGI. I’m just talking about every time I have to tell you something I care about that I’ve ever kind of said or I’ve said a dozen times, it should be able to know that codify that or gain access to it. Like the dreaming ideas, are an attempt to kind of do some version of this but I think there’s a much more proactive angle that will help software devs if we can test that out a bit more.OpenClaw, Ambient AI, and Inverting ControlSwyx [01:13:05]: Yeah. Well, the other thing about OpenClaw that reminded me Is Microsoft has a CVP Dedicated to OpenClaw. Why?Kyle [01:13:16]: Because you don’t think they should?Swyx [01:13:17]: I don’t, I don’t know. I think CVP is a high title. What, why is this so important? Like Microsoft Doesn’t even own OpenClaw. What’s, what’s theKyle [01:13:29]: so I— we’re talking a lot more about this at, Microsoft Build this year too. I think, the main thing is that what OpenClaw has done is it has made this connection for people to have access to the resources that you have access to and be able to do things for you in a way that previously people were trying to codify into their own agents. And so when you think about it like in the work context, wouldn’t it be great to have a Claw-like object that I could actually run on my work device that or had access to my work assets, made— worked well on Windows what that would look like. And so I think that OpenClaw has become the personification of, a valuable agent that understands me because it has access to all of my information, and it can use a computer. And so thus it can do a lot more than, just a task-oriented process or like a a chat tool, et cetera. And that’s like a bunch of the goal of Build, right? We’re at Build this year trying to take a very different approach of it’s unapologetically aimed at developers. We’re trying to show the bigger investment to not just say, “Hey,” like you said, “Why do you have a CVP of OpenClaw?” Well, because, one of the problems that we have, right, is that our agents, if you install them not on a Mac Mini or not on a hosted device, you install them on a personal device or a work device, we need better sandboxing at the OS level. I need to be able to use that Claw and not, get fired. And so Microsoft is “Okay, great, let’s, do that too.” And then it’s, okay, well, where should I be able to talk to this agent? Should each of us just have a Claw available to us at work? Probably. And so there you go. And continuing to contribute a ton to the open source project too. Microsoft, I think as I’ve gotten more and more, information there’s so much investment into the open source, projects themselves that for whatever reason just I think there’s like this they don’t want to come off those teams don’t want to come off as like taking any credit or getting any recognition. But so many of these core contributors or teams are full-time just pushing into open source projects. And, I think that’s, that kind of shows the difference between, well, why are we looking so hard at something like Claw? Why are we looking at sandboxing on Windows? Why are we looking at cloud versions of sandboxing? Why are we looking— Because ultimately, we need more platform components. We don’t need everyone to be building the same exact, top-line product. And so if we’re building for builders, that requires us to give you all these components and tell you what they are and how they work and why you should be interested versus only delivering that single vertical over and over and over again.Microsoft, Windows Sandboxing, and Platform Components for AgentsSwyx [01:16:23]: I think, my maybe one way of framing it Is that Microsoft is the original operating systems company. And here is the new operating system for AI.Kyle [01:16:35]: like I think that we are also in an era where we are— we need to help build that bridge? All joking aside operating systems need to look different than they looked five years ago because it’s not just you using them anymore. And that’s changed the whole idea. It’s not, “Okay, my Claw is going to create a user account.” Doesn’t work like that? And so just just like all of us, we all have to look much more deeply in the stack, all the way down to, the silicon layer in Azure to be “Okay, well, What do we need now?” ‘Cause the workloads are different. It’s not just, “Okay, we need more inference.” It’s, “Okay, well, what type of inference do we need? What type of compute do we need to run these agents or run these agentic flows?” it’s a really interesting kind of like multi-layer problem, versus kind of, I would say software in the last five or six years were all going to our events, and we’re kind of saying a version of the same thing. SaaS product has new SaaS thing. It’s the best SaaS thing ever.Swyx [01:17:42]: It was boring for a while.Kyle [01:17:43]: And so now it’s like Oh my goodness, we’re at physics.Swyx [01:17:47]: It’s great.Kyle [01:17:48]: We’re at physics problems. And that’s exciting.Swyx [01:17:50]: We’re— we’re now trying to make, semicondu- room temperature superconductors. Still. That’s, that’s, that’s never going away. No, I think, that’s a really good overview of, everything. I think, have I have we left anything unsaid that you wanted to really get out there that we should cover?Build Announcements, Enterprise Adoption, and AI at WorkKyle [01:18:07]: I’m really excited by for folks checking out, checking out the announcements that we have at Build go you can go look at them online, take a look. I think that I’m hoping that it’s driving, a degree of curiosity and interest because there’s such this big shift that we’re making at Microsoft for developers, where if you’re a daily driver of a Mac device or a Linux device, and you’re “Okay, I don’t use Windows,” there’s improvements that are being made that I think are going to surprise folks to just be “Oh, that’s in— they really want to do that?” not, And I’m talking for developers. I’m not talking for I play video games on the weekends on my Windows computer. I’m talking my daily driver. Like-All the way from that to, okay, well, what is it like to build an agent or build an app and deploy it and run it at work in particular? I think that is a big piece of it where I talk all the time with the team how I build on the weekend should be how I build at work. But if you’re working at a Fortune one hundred or a Fortune five hundred, you’re probably not vibe coding an app and then shipping it to some service. You got to go through security and compliance. How can we move just as fast at work? And that’s, I think, something that we have a bunch of different offerings for to give you that same sort of agility and power, but in the work context. And then I will tell you I’ve mentioned it a couple times, and, it’s very freaking cool. If you are in the M365 land in any way, check out WorkIQ, check out FoundryIQ. These little, oversimplifying it context engines are wild good. And, we’ve given them to our developers at GitHub, we’ve given them to employees at GitHub as we’ve used these tools to be able to just ask questions around everything that you have in your work context. And with FoundryIQ, be able to just do the same exact thing across all your existing stores. What— Not move to new tools, just connect them in. It’s surprisingly powerful, and you your boss is still not going to get fired, and IT is not going to turn it off because it’s leaking all this private information. That is the trick that I think, is sometimes getting lost when we’re talking about all these all these great new platforms. ‘Cause I can use them, I’m “Oh, this is super powerful. Oh, and I can’t I can’t use it.” and it’s Not because I’m at work at GitHub. It’s beSwyx [01:20:34]: ‘Cause I’m not allowed, yeahKyle [01:20:35]: It’s ‘cause I’m not allowed, because they can’t do all the things that large, complicated companies need. And so, whether it be I said, just the kind of interesting daily driver curiosity all the way through to, “Oh, my gosh,” “I can go use this at work tomorrow potentially,” and have that context layer, have that intelligence, it’s a huge, it’s a huge shift. And so check it out. I’d love to hear— I’m, I’m not shy on social. I’d love to hear feedback. What’s working what’s not. But hopefully surprise folks a little bit.Swyx [01:21:07]: What I’m hearing— so first of all, I think that’s, that’s a great pitch. What I’m hearing, actually, is that you should put the WorkIQ people next to the Copilot people. ‘Cause, the exact prob- context problem that you named They solve enough for you to do your job, which is nuts.Kyle [01:21:23]: So, the thing that we are lit— that’s literally what has been Happening the last several months.Swyx [01:21:29]: I already forecast you were going there.Kyle [01:21:30]: It’s totally ‘cause, you’re totally right. The code, the code and the code asset problem is a little bit unique. But otherwiseSwyx [01:21:36]: That’s itKyle [01:21:37]: We’re all workingSwyx [01:21:37]: It’s contextKyle [01:21:37]: With each other now. It’s all just context, exactly.Swyx [01:21:40]: Amazing. Great. I’m going to be there. I’m going to be doingKyle [01:21:43]: GreatSwyx [01:21:43]: A couple sessions there. I’m going to be interviewing Satya.Kyle [01:21:46]: I know.WorkIQ, Copilot Context, and What to Ask SatyaSwyx [01:21:47]: When I first started the pod, though, I had, Jeff Dean on. Jeff like It’s like hall of fame of People I want to meet someday. Satya’s on there. So, what should I ask Satya?Kyle [01:21:57]: I think, I think that the best question to ask is what he thinks is true in, two or three years from now. It seems like such a throwaway question. But ultimately, the way that the way that he is looking at this AI problem in, inference problem, token problem, and what we’re how we’re actually going to be working I think you can see some of the recent shifts that have been happening inside of Microsoft to kind of drive us to a place where it’s not four, five, six, seven, eight different things. It’s not a lack of context everywhere. But, why is this sort of approach in two years going to, pay off? Because that I thinkSwyx [01:22:41]: Wow, that’s a bold Okay. I’ll ask it. I’ll say you I’ll say I prompted by you butKyle [01:22:45]: AbsolutelySwyx [01:22:45]: It’s a bold question because there, I think there’s a lot of, doubts to be honest, Externally. And so, yes, I want, a straight answer from him on that I think would reassure a lot of people, and honestly, give me a lot of food for writing. So, thank you so much for spending your time. Thank you for doing what you do. I think as a CEO, you don’t need to be the external face. But, because you are authoritative, ‘cause you have so much background with GitHub, and it’s so authentic, we on the outside feel it. So thank you for that.Kyle [01:23:16]: Of course. Appreciate it. Thank you so much, Sean. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Why Video Agent models are next — Ethan He, xAI Grok Imagine 01.06.2026 1h 43min

  We’re announcing AIEWF speakers this week! Take the AI Engineering Survey!Today’s guest Ethan first joined us for the LS Paper Club as the lead on NVIDIA Cosmos World Model, but then joined xAI and built Grok Imagine in 3 months:He comes back on Latent Space with some nuclear hot takes: that Video Models primarily get their intelligence from LLMs, not from training on video data, and that the next frontier for truly interactive, realtime, long-horizon world models is to work on LLMs (perhaps Interaction Models as well…)Put it this way: In the near term, the next Sora won’t be a better video model, but a video agent.Generative Media may more closely follow the evolution of AI coding which went from focusing on one-shot output performance and cost, to multiturn reasoning and planning models for agents and systems that can plan, edit, test, debug, and submit PRs.At a certain point, coding models got so good that the only significant next step to improve performance was handling the orchestration of these models.Now as the performance of video models increases significantly across realism, consistency, & prompt adherence while becoming more cost efficient, the next evolution of video generation may also be systems that can plan, generate, edit, critique, and iterate across an entire creative task. In this episode, Ethan joins swyx and Vibhu to unpack what it actually takes to build frontier image and video systems: data, VAEs, diffusion transformers, audio-video alignment, inference speedups, and the hidden cost of storing and moving massive video datasets. From building NVIDIA’s Cosmos world model to joining xAI as Grok Imagine was being built from zero to one, Ethan He has been at the center of some of the most important work in video generation, multimodal models, and real-time world models.We go deep on Grok Imagine, how a small xAI team shipped its first multimodal video model in three months, why iteration speed matters more than almost anything in model development, and why many of the biggest gains come from fixing tiny bugs in data and training pipelines. Flipbook: The future of VideomaxxingVideo agents are almost a sure bet to be the trend in the coming year. We end with a glance at what’s beyond video agents:Flipbook caused a minor sensation this year when it was released, but most treat it as a fun demo. Ethan takes it very seriously — with the speed and cost of inference coming down every year, the future of custom video JIT UI is closer than you think. We talked about why videogen models may become the front end of AI, how generative UI could replace traditional HTML/CSS, why world models need to be real-time, interactive, and long-horizon, and why the future of video generation may depend more on language models and agents than on diffusion alone.We discuss:* Why fast iteration mattered more than meetings* Why small training bugs can drive huge model quality gains* Why coding models may make compute the bottleneck again* How image and video models are trained with synthetic captions* The role of VAEs and latent space in frontier video models* Why image models are the foundation for video models* The tradeoff between temporal compression and real-time interactivity* Flipbook, Neural OS, and the future of generative UI* Why future interfaces may go from user intent to pixels* The hidden cost of training video models: storage, egress, and GPU hours* How step distillation and consistency models (like OpenAI sCM) makes video inference orders of magnitude faster* Grok Imagine 0.9 and large-scale audio-video generation* Why audio-video alignment is harder than text-video alignment* Ethan’s definition of world models* Reference-to-video, video extension, and long-context video generation* Why xAI’s research communication undersells Grok Imagine* How xAI culture shaped the speed of development* AI watermarking, SynthID, and detecting generated media* Why prompt rewriting matters for video models* Grok Imagine Agent and the rise of video agents* Why language models may unlock better video generation* Robotics, physical AI, and embodied world models* Why Ethan left xAI and shifted focus toward LLMs* Self-managed context, memory, and the next frontier for language modelsEthan He* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ethanhe42* X: https://x.com/EthanHe_42Timestamps00:00:00 Introduction00:01:25 From NVIDIA Cosmos to xAI00:03:24 Building Grok Imagine from Zero to One00:10:07 How Image and Video Models Are Trained00:18:53 Video Compression, VAEs, and Real-Time Tradeoffs00:22:10 Generative UI, Flipbook, and Neural OS00:32:10 The Cost of Training Large Video Models00:37:04 Distillation, GANs, and Fast Video Inference00:41:21 Audio-Video Generation and Grok Imagine 0.900:48:34 What Makes a World Model?00:55:51 Reference Videos, Long Context, and Video Memory01:00:11 xAI Culture, Research, and First-Principles Building01:09:45 AI Safety, Watermarking, and Prompt Rewriting01:13:10 Video Agents and AI-Assisted Creation01:27:32 Why Language Models Unlock Better Video01:31:15 Robotics, Physical AI, and Embodied World Models01:32:38 Why Ethan Left xAI01:34:16 Self-Managed Context and the Future of LLMs01:38:43 Ethan’s Career Path and Closing ThoughtsTranscriptIntroduction: Ethan He, Latent Space, and the Path to xAISwyx [00:00:00]: We’re here in the studio with Ethan He, most recently of xAI. Welcome.Ethan [00:00:10]: Thank you. Glad being here.Swyx [00:00:11]: We’re also here with Vibhu. you were first coming to us or joining the latent space world because you were working on Kosmos at NVIDIA, and you did a paper. We loved it. you presented it as well, so thank you for doing that.Ethan [00:00:23]: I’ve actually, I also presented the MoEs twice at latent space.Swyx [00:00:29]: How did you actually hear about us? Did we reach out to you? Is that how it worked?Ethan [00:00:33]: No, actually, I-- the community. Like I realized, oh, there is this online community that people talk about AI and also learn from each other through papers every week through the Paperclip. It’s very nice.Ethan [00:00:49]: I learned a lot.Swyx [00:00:49]: I think three years stop. We haven’t stopped even on Christmas and New Years. many weeks I want to stop but it keeps going.Vibhu [00:00:58]: No, that was good. I think you had posted that you worked on a paper, and I was “Oh, very cool. We have Paperclip. Present then.”Vibhu [00:01:04]: But I might have reached out to you after.Swyx [00:01:05]: you-- because it’s an amateur club, right?Swyx [00:01:08]: so it’s very unusual and but we have sometimes paper authors come by and actually explain the paper. Today we just did, the poolside paper, which was apparently very good.Vibhu [00:01:18]: Came out yesterday.Vibhu [00:01:19]: pretty interesting, right? Fully open. They talk about everything, systems. So it’s a good one. We’ll, we’ll recommend people to read it.Swyx [00:01:25]: Bring us up to speed on your transition to xAI, ‘cause I actually don’t even know when you joined. just like tell the, tell the story about the sort of transition.From NVIDIA Cosmos to xAI: Scaling Video and World ModelsEthan [00:01:34]: Before xAI, I was working on Kosmos world model as in-- at NVIDIA. So Kosmos is, it’s a giant video foundation models that can-- that aims to simulate the world and for-- it serves as a foundation of-- for all of the roboticists to build on top of. There, once I built the Kosmos one, I realized as this thing also has a scaling law similar to language model, we need to scale up the video models further. that’s, that’s why I realized I need to move to somewhere with much more compute resources. That’s how ISwyx [00:02:13]: Than NVIDIA?Vibhu [00:02:14]: The GPU rich came themselves.Vibhu [00:02:19]: And timeline-wise, when was Kosmo? It was pretty early, right? It was open world model, open paper, everything.Ethan [00:02:25]: It was end of twenty-four.Vibhu [00:02:28]: End of twenty-four.Ethan [00:02:30]: Then at mid twenty-five, I moved to xAI. At that time-- I joined about the time when xAI was about to build video models and in multi-model models. There were no infra, no data, and no model, and it just-- as a few engineers, we built it in three months and released the first model, Grok Imagine zero point nine.Ethan [00:02:55]: And since then, I keep working on video models and move more from training and to post-training of the video models. For example, like a reference to videos, kind of like the cameo feature and, video extensions. And, before I left, I worked on a world model, leading a small team to focus on the real-time long horizon video generation.Building Grok Imagine From Scratch in Three MonthsSwyx [00:03:24]: Can you give like a rough roadmap of okay, you’re on a brand-new team. Grok previously was only text, or they partnered with BFL for their image gen stuff. What do you-- what are the building blocks, right? You have compute, data you can procure somewhere. Like just what are like the sequence of things that people should think about when you’re setting up a new team?Vibhu [00:03:43]: actually even deeper, not just data you can procure. You guys had to go through getting the data too, right? So you shipped it pretty fast, but yeahSwyx [00:03:51]: three months is likeVibhu [00:03:52]: From everythingSwyx [00:03:52]: actually like very surprisingly fast.Ethan [00:03:55]: One thing I say like thanks to my experience at NVIDIA, ‘cause first time when we were building Kosmos together, we built it, for about a year. So this is like the second time I do it. Roughly have an idea, what to do. I say the most important thing is the talent. Everyone were very strong and clever, very close with each other towards a common goal. So that speed up things a lot. So you reduce the communication bandwidth among people, and everyone can work towards the same goal. It’s, it’s like every day there’s not that much meetings on the calendar, like maybe like a, like a sync a day, and after that it’s, it’s just all building. It was pretty fun at that time.Ethan [00:04:47]: And another thing is that xAI has very strong foundations of like data inference, model inference, and the supporting there can help the model develop a lot. When I look at, training models, I don’t so actually the top important thing is like how many, how many iterations can you do, per day? and the more iteration can you do, you can, you can train the model much faster. So if you have very strong infra and you have a lot of compute, you can, you can train these models in very short period of time. That can give you a much larger buffer to, for errors, and it also gives you the opportunity to spot more bugs.Iteration Speed, Compute, and Debugging Model PipelinesSwyx [00:05:46]: What is an iteration? Is it like a few hundred steps or what are youEthan [00:05:50]: Let’s say just the train-training the model, like from acquire new data and maybe design new algorithms and train a new model, maybe at smaller scale orSwyx [00:06:01]: So cycle time for like any hyperparam that you’re searching.Ethan [00:06:04]: Cycle time and tune to like eval this model. Is this model better than my previous iteration?Ethan [00:06:11]: SoSwyx [00:06:11]: So it’s like before you, someone had already set this up that you can iterate very quickly.Ethan [00:06:15]: I think the foundation there is extremely good forDeveloping and research models.Ethan [00:06:23]: And often I find is it-- this is kind of boring, but like a lot of the improvements does not come from new algorithms. It comes from finding small bugs here and there in the data pipeline, in the, in the model training pipeline. Those give, those give the biggest boost to the model quality.Vibhu [00:06:46]: It’s interesting, right? So you say it’s like small team, less communication bandwidth, but also a lot of quality is like find little bugs. It seems counterintuitive, right? You have a lot of people, you can iron out more of those, but it’s interesting to see the other side, right?Swyx [00:07:00]: I also wonder, have you-- do you try using LLMs to look for bugs? I don’t know.Ethan [00:07:05]: I remember at that time it was mid two thousand and twenty-five, so it’s the coding model wasn’t quite there yet. I remem- I remember like December two thousand and twenty-five, it was extremely good. Yeah, I’ve been, I’ve been using it at that time. It’s, it’s helpful. sometimes it produce codes that are kind of difficult to maintain, even though like the first time it built something extremely fast. But it gave the, like a spaghetti code, thousands of lines that I couldn’t maintain, and the LLM itself couldn’t figure out what’s, what’s wrong and how to improve on top of it. But now I find it much better. Yeah, I want to bring up another point here is now coding models are much more efficient and can help us implement stuff much faster. Compute might become a bottleneck again because previously, like if you want to train a new model, say you want to generate new synthetic data and then or write a new algorithm, it might take a few weeks. And during that period of time, you don’t-- you might not have experiments to run. But now you can build that thing within a few hours, then you can immediately train a model.Ethan [00:08:24]: Now you have to have enough compute to try all of the ideas. So compute might be the bottleneck of iterating speed again.Swyx [00:08:36]: yeah, I actually, honestly, I think it’s like kind of a stressful job because you’re “Well, I should be trying everything, and if I’m not, then I’m not doing my job well.”Vibhu [00:08:48]: there’s also the stress of you’re eating thousands of GPUs per hour, which is very expensive and, compute can go to other researchers.Swyx [00:08:56]: You got the daddy Elon toVibhu [00:08:57]: You got daddy Elon.Ethan [00:08:59]: It wasVibhu [00:09:00]: But there’s still finite amount of compute, like you want to use it, you want to use it well, you want more of it.Ethan [00:09:06]: That was quite stressful indeed. Yeah, I think one thing is the-- with coding models now, like a lot of these jobs can be automated, which is much better. A second, it’s a, it’s a marathon, so you got to maintain good health and, a regular schedule.Vibhu [00:09:28]: It’s, it’s hard to hear that when you shift from zero to nothing in two months.Swyx [00:09:32]: and, I think obviously the culture at xAI is very famously, people work very hard. one thing I did want to dive into, in our-- in the notes that you, that you sent ahead of time, you had specific comments about the cost of Video Gen training. presumably this is on the Colossus-1, right? the two hundred megawatt cluster. Any whatever you want to just share on that.Vibhu [00:09:54]: I think there’s, there’s three things we’re talking about, right? So there’s Video Gen, there’s also the Image Gen model that you put out. Do you want to like complete the, okay, so zero to one, you have a few months. Just what are the stages of create Image Gen model?Swyx [00:10:06]: Oh, yeah, maybe I got distracted.How Image and Video Models Are Trained: Synthetic Captions, Tokenizers, and VAEsVibhu [00:10:07]: Sorry. and then, from there’s Video Gen, there’s Audio Gen. Would love to get into those next. But what is that first few months like? So small team, a lot of bugs, iterations, but what does it look like? Do we take something off the shelf? Do we just get data compute? What’s, what’s the few months like? How do you go to state-art Image Gen model? How do you just start?Ethan [00:10:28]: I cannot comment specifically how xAI did, but it’s, it’s a quite standard process. I can draw some, examples from Cosmos. So mainly it’s building a video model, you actually need to build a image model first. And building these two models, the data you need is a hundred percent synthetic pair of language and image or language to video. Because on the, on the internet, actually, the videos don’t naturally associate with text. So you can say, oh, like on YouTube, you have the title and you have the description and the commentsSwyx [00:11:11]: TitleEthan [00:11:11]: of a video, but usually they’re not relevant to the video itself. And say maybe like the video is a natural scene of mountains or something, and the title is, I’m so happy today.Ethan [00:11:26]: So they have they have no correlation at all. So the first step is to, you have to generate synthetic pair of language with the videos. So you gather videos from the internet, and you use a VLM to caption the videos. So that part, here’s a question, like how do you, how do you gather VLM to begin with? So if there’s noSwyx [00:11:55]: You, so you fuse the model, right? LikeEthan [00:11:57]: Say if there’s no like VLM exists, like how do you generate the text to the beginning, right? It’s, it’s impossible.Swyx [00:12:04]: I see.Ethan [00:12:05]: In the beginning, it’s like you ask human to describe the video as detailed as possible.For example, you ask them to describe everything, like all objects, all characters, and all interaction and dialogues in the, in the videos. So that’s in the protocol of Cosmos labeling. We require the objective we give to the labelers was that you have to describe the video as detailed as possible, such that a blind person hears a blob of text can reconstruct what the video is like from their head.Swyx [00:12:43]: Video or image? You’re talking about images.Ethan [00:12:44]: Video or image, either one of them.Vibhu [00:12:47]: This was pretty common when we went from clip and DALL-E, right?Vibhu [00:12:51]: It’s all training on really detailed captioning of images. So same is applied to video, but insteadEthan [00:12:57]: same appliedVibhu [00:12:57]: of using multimodal model to pass in video images and write rich descriptions, you can alsoSwyx [00:13:04]: I think there’s this traditional perspective of supervised, or, very highly human curated thing. I feel like there’s a unlock with unsupervised, right? Where like you have enough to bootstrap that you can just throw common corpus on it or, whatever. like unsupervised vision and language pairing, right? Like where you just have, interspersed image and text and it just learns. To me, that is the VLM breakthrough that is different from the clip, different from the LM era.Ethan [00:13:36]: It’s interesting to see that you kind of need both data.Ethan [00:13:41]: For example, for theSwyx [00:13:41]: You need it to bootstrap it up. YeahEthan [00:13:43]: for the generative model training, there’s also usually like a small percentage of unlabeled data. So the model is instructed to generate a video without any text instruction. That can also help the model generalize. So after this stage of generative synthetic pair, so, one important common step is to train a compressor or a tokenizer of the image or videos. So because, if you train-- If you can technically, theoretically train image or video models on pure pixels, but the problem is that the, it’s, it’s a lot of tokens. So like one image, it’s, a thousand by a thousand, it’s like one million tokens, one million pixels. It’s impossible to train transformer on that. So it’s, you need to train a tokenizer, which can go from image to latent space and latent space back to image.Swyx [00:14:45]: That’s why we named the podcast.Swyx [00:14:48]: But, basically, you’re talking about vocabulary science.Ethan [00:14:50]: so vocab.Swyx [00:14:51]: And so, what is, what is imp-- like a million is impossible?Ethan [00:14:54]: In generative models, the vocab is continuous. It’s a continuous space. We can think about like you map an image to a vector. It’s a, it’s a fixed length vector. It’s sixteen or forty-eight, something like that. And then you map that vector back to the image space. And the mapping is, has-- The mapping is patch-based. So you say you haveEthan [00:15:22]: a sixteen by sixteen patch and you match, you map that patch of pixels into this latent space.Swyx [00:15:29]: We’ve covered thisVibhu [00:15:30]: This is like the vision transformersSwyx [00:15:32]: VAEs,Ethan [00:15:33]: VAEs.Vibhu [00:15:34]: You basically compress your input, you do your generation, you’re reasoning all that generation in smaller dimension, and then you project back out.Swyx [00:15:43]: VAE is a form compression, but I think the for me, the patching thing is from VIT, right?Ethan [00:15:48]: You can make those.Swyx [00:15:49]: Literally the, yeah, the paper is titled like sixteen by sixteen is all you need. something like that. and then I think also, people make a lot of comparisons with this kind of patching with convolutions.Swyx [00:16:02]: Which is you’re, you’re kind of re- reconstructing the old paradigm with the new.Ethan [00:16:05]: Actually, in VAEs, there are, there are both convolution networks and transformers. You can actually do both.Ethan [00:16:14]: After this VAE, so what you’ve got is you’ve got latent space tokens and you’ve got the language tokens. So now the training of the diffusion transformer, usually generative models use diffusion transformers. It is actually quite standard. It’s, it’s very similar to how you train a language transformer models. It’s not that much difference. It’s just the tokens, the visual tokens in, visual tokens out. The only difference is there’s a denoising process. So you train the model to unmask some of the noise. So you add, you add random noise to the visual tokens, and then you train the model to remove those noise to generate the clean tokens. Any inference, the model can iteratively remove noise from a hundred percent noise.Swyx [00:17:12]: And then there’s also, to speed things along on the tech tree of diffusion, there’s CFG, and then there’s, there’s also, latent diffusion that, there’s, there’s someone in there. I think, somewhere along the line, obviously, like stability and all these other guys, pioneered a lot of this, architecture. I don’t know if you want to get into that or just, or do the video side up to you.Bootstrapping Video from Image Models and Temporal CompressionEthan [00:17:37]: After you train such model, such image model, the reason it’s a, it’s a foundation for video models is that image models are cheaper to train, and they have much denser connection between language and text. So, sorry, language and images. For example, you train a billion, you train on a billion images, and there’s a mapping from the text to the image. And the cost to train the same, like the, a billion, a billion text to a billion videos, that’s much more expensive because videosNaturally have more tokens than images. Because the diffusion models, their understanding of, language purely come from this mapping. So if you don’t have enough mapping, so if you only train on like a ten million videos or something, there-- you might not see enough language tokens in your training, so your model does not understand human intention enough. So that’s why you really-- you train-- you first train this image diffusion models, and then you bootstrap the video model from there.Swyx [00:18:53]: One thing I did want to ask, because I-- actually, I think you’re, you’re the first per-- video model person I’ve ever talked to, I think. we’ve, we’ve like talked to Luma and all those folks. There’s all these tricks in video compression where basically frame by frame there’s not that much difference, so actually you don’t have to regenerate or save the whole frame, right? but I think MP4 compression or something else like that.Swyx [00:19:16]: is it tempting to use that? Or as far as I can tell, everyone just treats it as, “No, we would just generate every frame.” Is that roughly the state-art?Ethan [00:19:27]: There are a few different approaches. Let’s say first, like you want to just directly use MP4 compression and use that as the tokens for the transformers to train, right? So people actually have tried that, but the main challenge is the latent space for the MP4 tokens were not, were not very comprehensible for the models. It’s, it’s extremely hard to train on that. And there’s aEthan [00:20:01]: So that’s why they created VAEs, which creates more continuous, latent space, so the models can understand that latent space and learn from it much easier. Even within the VAEs, there are different difficulties of the latent space. So you can imagine something the simplest, the most naive VAE is like you have an image, and you just shuffle all of the images into a, into a vector. So you don’t need to train any VAEs, right? But that latent space is extremely hard for models to train on top of. That’s why there are some debate on like how do you compress the tokens. So you mentioned like you can compress frame by frame. Also, you can compress, the temporal dimension.Ethan [00:20:52]: The difference is if you compress the temporal dimension, you get a much higher compression rate. Because there’s temporal redundancy between frames, because, this frame and the last frame, likely they are mostly similar, so there’s only some small difference. for example, I think in 12.1 VAE, they have like a eight by eight by four compression rate. So the four temporal tokens are compressed into one tokens. That can save a lot of, save a lot of the context length. If you do it frame by frame, you have to do maybe like eight by eight by one. Your context length will be four times larger. That being said, the benefit of the frame-- per frame compression, we might come back to this later, is, real-timeness and interactivity. ‘Cause if you, if you strain the output of the model, frame by frame, you can-- the model can respond to any user request immediately. So if you have like a temporal four compression, four times compression, thenSwyx [00:22:06]: It might be laggyEthan [00:22:07]: there’s a lag there in nature.Swyx [00:22:10]: So you’re very pilled on this. let’s just go ahead and bring it up ‘cause we have the visual prepared anyway. There’s some frontier applications of real-time video gen. So Flipbook is one of the examples that went viral recently, right? What is Flipbook?Real-Time Generative UI: Flipbook, Neural OS, and Diffusion Front EndsEthan [00:22:23]: Flipbook is kind of like a web brow- web browser. You can see like it has the web bro- browser UI on top. The difference is all of the UIs are generated by generative image model in real time, and anything here are fake. But you can, you can explore inside this wor- this imaginary world. Say like we-- here we have engineering the Great Pyramid. Like the model generates this for us to understand how it works, and if we want to navigate around and understand further, we can click on some of the, some of the description here, and the model will generate a new page, new subpage describing the details we want to know about.Swyx [00:23:14]: So it’s basically kind of we’re playing a video, but it’s pausing for our next interaction, and then it just plays the next thing based on our interaction.Swyx [00:23:23]: Which is kind of cool.Vibhu [00:23:25]: and you kind of decide your story. So this was, how do you make a pyramid? levering technique seemed interesting, right? It shows how do you take Okay, I want to know what is thisSwyx [00:23:35]: The demo, the demo tweet had more animation between frames.Vibhu [00:23:38]: I think it’s just skipping,Swyx [00:23:39]: Oh, it’s just skipping a lot of frames.Ethan [00:23:40]: they also have a video modeVibhu [00:23:42]: It takes a lot. There’s a lot of peopleEthan [00:23:42]: but, a lot of people are using it.Ethan [00:23:45]: So it’s not available.Vibhu [00:23:46]: There’s a live video stream. We can try,Swyx [00:23:50]: So this is an example of the kind of future that you see at the extreme. We don’t-- we’re obviously not in it today.Swyx [00:23:56]: But in a world where inference is completely free this is better than generating code and text?Ethan [00:24:02]: So this is, this is a final state of where Viva will be at for word model, I think. Imagine internet doesn’t exist, and then you type in google.com. Like what should, what should, what should a model show you?the model can imagine something, and this is what the model imagine. And these web pages, they completely do not exist. So I think as the inference costs come down, we are going to have generative UI for everything. If you think about how the coding model works, so they write code for a web page, and they render the code might be con- converted into binary, and the binary render the pixels on the screen. So we in machine learning, every time we have some breakthrough, obviously it’s, it’s more intuit. So why don’t we have like user instruction to the pixel directly? So the generative UI will be user intention to the pixels directly. And say like even if I want email, let’s say everyone have the same interface, but I want, I want it slightly different. I want the email to show to me like a TikTok, so I can swipe left and right for the emails. And or maybe you want something else. We can have completely different things. Or like I have I’m looking at, Instagram stories, and I don’t like the Like button. I always may click it. And, generative UI resolved it. So it’s going to be a revolutionary replacement of the interface. So in the future, we might have much more powerfulEthan [00:25:50]: LLMs and coding models running behind the scene. And in the, in the front-end, the diffusion model will actually be the front-end to show stuff to you. That’s how I imagine it.Swyx [00:26:02]: Diffusion front-end, deterministic back-end.Swyx [00:26:04]: Something like that. I find that very expensive, but,Vibhu [00:26:08]: I find it interesting you called LLMs writing code on the back end deterministic, but okay.Swyx [00:26:14]: you write it onceVibhu [00:26:15]: Compare it toSwyx [00:26:16]: And then you execute.Ethan [00:26:17]: If you think about the cost, say, let’s say H100 costs $1 per hour, and if you use this eight hours a day and thirty days, so, every month you’re paying this two forty, you’ll actually not wanna pay for that. That’s even more expensive than Cloud Code Max. But if you think about the compute costs come down like two times every year, and I think the future will likely arrive like within few years.Vibhu [00:26:49]: It’s everything, right? compute cost comes down, compute gets faster, model gets smarterEthan [00:26:54]: More efficientVibhu [00:26:54]: model gets smaller.Swyx [00:26:55]: I don’t know why you say two times, ‘cause I think it’s like 100 times. In language models, it is roughly one hundred to a thousand times every twelve to eighteen months, for the same given level of LMSys, ELO.Vibhu [00:27:08]: That’s a net of everything, right? That’s model performance alongside compute. So different than just compute costs come down. But, a very interesting future.Swyx [00:27:19]: So the web designers will have to shout out that accessibility is an issue, right? how do you deal with screen readers or whatever. But yes, this is higher bandwidth storytelling than anything you can possibly generate with code, right? So I think that’s the rough idea.Ethan [00:27:34]: And I’d like to add a little bit that so human naturally have the maximum bandwidth when we are looking at things, look at videos, and we also have maximum output bandwidth when we are talking. So in the future, it might be something like we talk to AI models, and the AI model responds back with a generative UI. So that would be the maximum input and output bandwidth to interact with AI models before neural link happens.Vibhu [00:28:06]: And it’s also very custom, right? Some people are very visual, some people are not as visual, right? They prefer the text. But the best thing about generative UI, right, it can also be text.Swyx [00:28:17]: There’s another project that we wanted to highlight, which is the Neural OS. Kinda similar idea, but here you’re literally operating, simulating an operating system with a video model.Swyx [00:28:27]: and you can play Doom, you can do Firefox. I find this like mildly less impressive, obviously, because it’s an OS that I can run.Swyx [00:28:37]: But here everything is imagined.Vibhu [00:28:40]: I was, used to the Command+W to close the Firefox tab. It didn’t crash. That’s why I saidSwyx [00:28:45]: It’s too immersive.Vibhu [00:28:46]: It’s, it’s too immersive for me.Swyx [00:28:47]: Too immersive.Vibhu [00:28:48]: I wanted to close the tab.Vibhu [00:28:49]: But yes, I can play generated diffusion.Swyx [00:28:51]: this is shockingly fast.Swyx [00:28:54]: Because I remember there was a demo about like maybe one to two years ago. Someone tried to do the first-person shooter with a image model. There was no consistency. It was very slow. But here it looks like realistically it’s-- this is Doom.Vibhu [00:29:07]: I think there’s two sides to that, right? There’s okay, what is running a game? The heavy part of it is actually the game engine, all the lighting, all that stuff, the graphics. This is just kind of video, right? Like we’ve solved consistency. This is still, it looks like a few years old image generation. There’s some temporal consistency, but it’s, it’s kind of just images stitched together as frame video. But it’s a good visual representation to pi- to picture the future you wanna see, right? that’s, that’s what I see in these more so.Ethan [00:29:38]: This reminds me of how the video models gets better and better. So Neural OS is kinda if you just look at it feels like it’s just a crappy version of the, like the Windows we could have, right? And, but the difference is, so the model, this model is overfitted on the existing operating systems. It can generate nothing different than that. But it’s actually also similar to video models. So when we are training these video model, image model, we train them on internet. There’s no imaginary supernatural stuff on the internet. But once we train this model, you can prompt the model to generate something supernatural that have never existed in the data set. So if you train your Neural OS or neural computer on the standard screen recordings on the entire internet. The model can imagine completely new interface to interact with the computer.Swyx [00:30:43]: This is one of those things that is magical to me. usually generalizing out of distribution is bad, but somehow we have learned some kind of internal world model that you say, this plus, but it looks like rainbows and butterflies, it’ll do it and it will kind of make sense.Swyx [00:31:03]: So yeah, that’s kind of cool. Yeah, I don’t know if there’s any comment more on there. I do, I do wanted to, I did wanted to touch a little bit more on the model architecture stuff, which I think you were getting. It’s, really fascinating. We don’t get a chance to talk about this enough. So one of the papers that we covered, we’ve covered every annual, segment anything release. and I don’t know if you follow-- you’re a computer vision guy, so youEthan [00:31:26]: I knowSwyx [00:31:27]: . So they did memory attention, which is kind of interesting. And I always think, anything where you can, across the temporal dimension, keep some consistency, I think it’s, very fascinating, and I don’t know if Basically, does that-- the CV side bleeding into video gen side, I think is underexplored, right? we talk about it for labeling, but actually you can borrow the architecture itself.Ethan [00:31:50]: There’s, there’s also complete different approaches, right? you brought up the term world model, so we went from video model to world model. There is diffusion, but there’s also other approaches that people are doing. So maybe we get into those after as well,?Swyx [00:32:03]: He has a whole definition of world models and stuff. I feel like we threw a lot at you. Whatever you want to comment on.Why Video Models Are Expensive: Storage, I/O, and Training ScaleEthan [00:32:10]: I think one thing that we should actually comment back on is okay, so we were talking about the steps to train image gen to video model. One thing we don’t see as much of is okay, you brought up the delta in training data, right? SoEthan [00:32:24]: you won’t have as much a video model might not generalize, but what is the cost of training a large video model? So we know for LLMs roughly, okay, even like the poolside thing that came out today, right? It’s a Gemma level model trained on roughly forty trillion tokens at this many H200s over this much time, right? You can see what is the exact cost of that. So how many GPU hours over how much H200 costs? So how do we do the back-end math of, same thing for video models, image models. How do you, how do you kind of break that down? I can share some back-envelope calculation. So surprisingly, video models is-- the cost is very-- is comparable to language models and obviously the largest scale is language model, maybe like a medium scale to language models. I said just storing the videos alone, it costs a lot. You can, you can maybe look up on AWS or something.Ethan [00:33:20]: You really, say if you have a billion videos and let’s say, let’s just say like each video, like five megabyte, then you need five petabyte to just store those videos. And also remember we talk about you use a VAE to compress the videos, and you also need to store, typically you need to store those continuous feature, in-- also in your storage. That’s also comparable size with the videos themselves. So just storing these videos and the features is tens of petabytes alone. And,Swyx [00:33:58]: I just, I just looked up the calculation. Five petabytes on S3 Standard is one hundred K per month.Ethan [00:34:05]: AndSwyx [00:34:05]: It’s comparableEthan [00:34:05]: and you needSwyx [00:34:06]: AndEthan [00:34:06]: And then like tens of petabytes, two hundred K. And even more expensive is you have the ingress and egress.Swyx [00:34:13]: Oh, yeah.Ethan [00:34:14]: Like you-- through the internet. You have to just to download those videos, I believe it’s, it’s more expensive on AWS than just storing those videos.Swyx [00:34:25]: Storing, yeah.Ethan [00:34:25]: And each training runs, you probably need to pull them once. If you train multiple times, it’s, it’s even more than that. So it’s like just storing the network, those costs is just, it would be a few, a few millions per month to just storing everything, not to mention the GPU cost.Ethan [00:34:45]: AndSwyx [00:34:45]: my side tangent, the compute rental, like GPU rental is very efficient. There’s one side, okay, you can be XAI and build your data center. Should we not just build our, storage compute as well? LikeEthan [00:34:57]: Of courseSwyx [00:34:57]: cloud cost compared to just,Ethan [00:34:59]: You save so muchSwyx [00:35:00]: store. Yeah, exactly.Swyx [00:35:01]: Especially with like egress and stuff. So.Ethan [00:35:04]: That’s a good idea, but it also comes to-- there are some of its own challenges.Swyx [00:35:09]: Of course, of course.Ethan [00:35:10]: like people who build the GPU data centers, they might not expect this much, storage. And yeah, people build storage, typically they just build it somewhere with just CPUs.Swyx [00:35:23]: I just looked it up. Five-- AWS only charges for egress, not ingress. Tier five for five petabytes is two hundred and thirty K.Ethan [00:35:32]: Even more expensive than the storage.Swyx [00:35:34]: But storing is per month, right? You check in, then you cannot check out. so it’s so cool. It’s okay. So there’s that side.Ethan [00:35:41]: So the TLDR, my backhand mathSwyx [00:35:42]: Data is larger than you think. Yes.Ethan [00:35:44]: my backhand math of GPU hours times GPU cost is also very much, I’m missing some storage.Swyx [00:35:49]: You’re also-- you’re basically like also more IO bound than normal training.Swyx [00:35:55]: Yes. ‘Cause like data loading, so caching everything, it becomes super important.Ethan [00:36:00]: So in Cosmos, we did a lot of optimizations to make it not IO bound. So, speaking of the training, actually training the model, the GPU cost, if you look up like the open source model, how big these video models are, I think like LTX has nineteen B parameters. That’s a dense model. And people are also exploring, MoEs, so it might be twenty B active and, like a hun- hundreds B, total. So that’s, that’s even-- that’s similar size as medium-sized LLM models. And if you, if you look at number of tokens-Uh, we disclose that in Cosmos. It’s also like tens of trillions of tokens on the visual tokens. So putting this together, the cost of, training these video models, it’s actually comparable with LLMs. Not to mention, the infra is slightly different from LLM, so it might be less efficient to train these models.Inference Speedups: Step Distillation, Consistency Models, and GANsSwyx [00:37:04]: Do you get the benefits of traditional diffusion speed-up? So for, images, there’s LCM, LoRAs for, fine-tuning. There’s, there’s a lot of stuff that’s beenEthan [00:37:15]: Flow matching.Swyx [00:37:16]: there’s flow matching. There’s a lot of stuff that’s been done. there’s some overlap that applies to diffusion on the inference side and stuff or?Ethan [00:37:23]: so the difference-- the inference side is a completely different story.Ethan [00:37:28]: I think for the training side, it might be a little bit hard to reduce that cost. And for the inference side, the biggest gain is from the distillation of these models. You can-- It’s called step distillation, slightly different from knowledge distillation in LLMs. So you-- Typically, for flow matching models, you need like 100 steps or something. Like a distortion model even need even more, like 1,000 steps to generate a good image or video. A step distillation is try to learn to generate fewer step from the model itself. It’s kind of like now we-- you use the full model to generate in 100 steps, and then you take a model that only generate 10 steps and let that model to learn from the perfect one.Ethan [00:38:25]: why this workSwyx [00:38:27]: Strong to weak seemingly.Ethan [00:38:28]: It is. It’s kind ofSwyx [00:38:29]: DistillationEthan [00:38:29]: kind of like strong to weak. the-- from the modeling perspective, the strong model, the teacher model is trying to model the image and videos of inter-internet, and that distribution is extremely complex. But the step distilled model is just trying to learn from the teacher. The teacher is a model, and the size is fixed, as the distribution is much simpler than the whole internet. That’s the intuition I have why step distillation can work. So usually these models serve in productions, they only run in a few steps. In Cosmos, I believe we have, we have like four step and eight steps. If you do some simpler task, image-image translation, it can even run in fewer step, like one step in Cosmos Transfer.Swyx [00:39:22]: I think this is the same intuition that guides a lot of the consistency model work. I sent you a link for, SCM. I don’t know if you covered that. To me, that was actually one of, the most impressive papers I’ve ever seen from OpenAI.Swyx [00:39:34]: That this is the unifying grand concept of consistency models. I don’t know if you have any comments on this.Ethan [00:39:41]: So there are, there are a few different approaches,Swyx [00:39:46]: Oh, yeah. Here it is.Swyx [00:39:47]: Two steps versus twenty or 100 steps, whatever. It’s already done.Ethan [00:39:52]: So there are, there are a few different approaches, for example, consistency model, and there are also Actually, we shouldn’t forget GAN. So GAN, actually, that was, that was the OG ofSwyx [00:40:05]: OGEthan [00:40:05]: step distillation ‘cause it trained just one step to begin with. So actually, a lot of, uh-- For example, there’s a distribution matching distillation which use, which uses GAN, as one of the laws for distillation. It-- GAN just tells you, “Hey, generate an image,” and thenEthan [00:40:31]: it has a discriminator to tell, is this image real or not? So the model, the model just need to learn one of the distribution, not the full distribution. Because in training, the model is asked to reconstruct the ground truth image from the internet, which is extremely hard. And in-- When you’re training GAN, it’s a step process. It’s just a, “Hey, you generate image. Does this image look as real as the image from the internet?” Which is a much simpler task. And, yeah, combining a lot of these approaches together, people typically do that, like consistency model and distribution matching and GAN, and we can get these few step models.Audio-Video Generation and Time AlignmentSwyx [00:41:21]: Then there’s one step I wanted to add, which is audio and video.Ethan [00:41:26]: So, Grok Imagine zero point nine, I believe it’s, it’s a first audio video transmodel deployed at a large scale. SoSwyx [00:41:39]: And that was your first model?Ethan [00:41:40]: that was, Grok Imagine’s first model. It’s, it’s audio video, joint generation. I think the hard part is, the modality alignment, ‘cause before this transmodel, we have, we have text to video alignment. We have this, correspondence between text and video. Typically, most of the VLMs, they understand images and videos. Video’s very rare, and they don’t understand audio mostly. And if you look at the audio generation on the LLM side, you can talk to them perfectly fine, but if you ask them to sing a song or something, it typically is not very good. Also, they don’t have, they don’t have music either. The hard part is thatUh, actually audio has two component. It has like a discrete component, a continuous component. The discrete component is like the language.Ethan [00:42:44]: So when we speak, it’s just, someSwyx [00:42:47]: It’s an ASR issue, yeah.Ethan [00:42:49]: It’s, it’s text token with some characteristics, I would say.Ethan [00:42:54]: But musicSwyx [00:42:56]: I think the speech guys would disagree with this.Swyx [00:42:57]: Like disfluencies and then,Vibhu [00:43:00]: There’s tones you can get angry.Ethan [00:43:01]: Well, I say largely.Ethan [00:43:03]: the mu- but the music is completely different. It’s, it’s very continuous, and you cannot model them like discrete tokens in language models. this is like the hard part for models is, not to mention we have to align text, video, and audio together.Ethan [00:43:26]: SoVibhu [00:43:26]: How?Ethan [00:43:28]: So significant-- some significant challenges are like-- So first, like we talk about as the VLMs, they cannot understand most of them cannot understand audio.Ethan [00:43:39]: So you have to have some way to do the synthetic data generation for audio. You have to caption the model, and that involve, that involve synthetic data and human data effort a lot. And not just surprisingly, most of the LLMs are very bad at recognizing, like the beat, tone, and the details of the of music. They can, they can give some general prediction of which song is this, but it’s very hard to describe the details of the music. like we mentioned in image generation, like you have to describe image as detailed as possible so that someone blind can reconstruct that. So here is like someoneVibhu [00:44:32]: DeafEthan [00:44:32]: someone deaf can reconstruct how the music sounds like without actually listening to it. Maybe you can think of it need to have the-- or they call the script.Vibhu [00:44:49]: Subtitles, yeah.Ethan [00:44:49]: You gotta have all the details of the music, and the dialogue.Vibhu [00:44:55]: So is the challenge there typically stuff like music and audio, or is it just Like is there a baseline? Okay, there’s enough data where we can understand, narration, conversation, but there’s nuances in audio that’s where you hit all the data issues or is it just from stage zero, you just do it all right?Ethan [00:45:15]: So one important thing is like the alignment. So the model, the model has to know like the video and audio, the, uh-- it has to have a time-based alignment, like at which time step the video and the audio token correspond to each other. But we actually don’t have this kind of alignment for most of the other modalities. If you think about like text and image, text and video, they are loosely aligned. So you can, you can have a description of what’s going on in the video, but you don’t have to exactly, You typically don’t have exact description, oh, at, time step one second like what happened?Vibhu [00:46:02]: It’s veryEthan [00:46:03]: At time step two second what happenedVibhu [00:46:03]: coarse. Yeah.Swyx [00:46:05]: So what was the ideal time step? You have to oblate it, and then it’s like four seconds or something.Ethan [00:46:09]: So that comes down to how you design the model to, for the model to be aware of as a time, as a time modality. So the model is like a time aware. And that’s something pretty unique if you think about LLMs. So if you ask LLM to complete a task, say they, uh-- you ask them and they will say, “Oh, this task will probably take twelve hours to complete,” and they come back in one hour. Say “I’ve already spent two days on this and I’ve exhausted everything.”Ethan [00:46:47]: So the LLMs them-themselves, they don’t have a sense of time there.Vibhu [00:46:53]: I actually don’t think that’s just them not having a sense of time. I think it’s somewhat based, right?Vibhu [00:46:58]: Like you tell someone, “Okay, go work on this feature. Go implement this,” there’s a general understanding you would have of how long that would take without LLMs working at LLM speed, right? So you think back like two years ago, if I tell you to like build me like a new front end for latent space, have a search bar, have all this, you’ll estimate that it’ll take a few days, right?Vibhu [00:47:19]: So you tell an LLM, “Go build this.” It’ll take me a few days. But I think it’s somewhat grounded as opposed to them not having the best-- Not saying that they have a great understanding, but I think that example is like you can see where it comes from, right? You’re trained on all over the text.Swyx [00:47:35]: They’re, they’re trying to estimate what a human would say.Vibhu [00:47:37]: because that’s what the, that’s what the data kind of represents. It’s not themEthan [00:47:41]: It came from the corpus on the internet. People have a estimate of how much time.Vibhu [00:47:45]: And not even just in direct like training samples, right? Just your world understanding of tokens of how long stuff takes, right? Go read a book. It’ll take you a while, right?Vibhu [00:47:56]: Even if you do nothing but read a book, it takes a few days. So yeah, LLM, I read it took me a few hours.Vibhu [00:48:01]: It’ll take me a few hours to go through this research. But this is a tangent.Swyx [00:48:05]: Somewhat, yeah.Swyx [00:48:06]: This is a train of thought I haven’t really expressed until now is, which is basically like a full world model must also be recursive, meaning that the participant in the world model must also be aware that they have a world model. which is like this whole recursive thing down the, down the line. but yes, and that the world model can be wrong and that they need to update it and blah. Yeah. We’ve, argued this on the, newsletter as well, that there needs to be sort of recursive or adversarial world models.World Models: Real-Time, Long-Horizon, Interactive VideoVibhu [00:48:34]: just, to ask, how do you define world model?Swyx [00:48:38]: Oh, yeah, let’s go there.Ethan [00:48:40]: SoVibhu [00:48:40]: So just for context, we talked about, video generation, and then there’s a-- if you say there’s a distinction between world models, what’s your, what’s your definition? How do you see the two?Ethan [00:48:53]: So disclaimer, I’m not going to debate, what is world model. Yeah. there are many definitions, so I’ll just talk about my definition. Since I came from the multi-model, multi-model domain, so mainly talking from video. So world model is like real-time interactive long horizon videos. So there are three parts. so we-- let’s talk about them one by one. So the so interaction, so we just, we just look at Facebook and neural computer. So the interaction part of it, so you, world model can allow you to interact with them through keyboard, mouse, and maybe also voice. So these all is-- all is a modality. You can, you can interact with the model, and the model should respond reasonably. Second part is real time. So once you, once, say, you move your mouse, if, say, the world model generate a game, how fast can the game respond? So if you’re like professional CS: GO players- -my say, oh, you have to respond- He’s beginner within sub ten milliseconds or- Yeah even less. So that’s not most of the- No, sixty FPS. Let’s go. Oh, three hundred FPS. Oh, five hundred FPS. Wait. okay, yeah. I didn’t do the math, but yeah, okay. Uh- Yeah, three hundred FPS, that’s a three millisecond. So you have to respond- Oh, s**t. Okay. YeahEthan [00:50:29]: within a millisecond. Most of the video models cannot do that. Yeah. And, but if you, say, if you have a video model that is, say, like a digital human, the response time might be more generous. Maybe typically, for real-time voice interaction, it’s like two hundred millisecond. So that’s, that’s much more generous. But even two hundred millisecond is pretty, it is pretty tricky, ‘cause remember we mentionedEthan [00:51:01]: you have this, temporal compression coming from the VAE. So if you, if you don’t compress the temporal dimension, your sequence length is going to explode. So if you want to have this real-time, real-timeness in your model, you have to do is one context problem. And the third part is long horizon, ‘cause we-- if you’re not going to just play with, video games just, a few seconds, most video models only a few seconds. We’re going to play with minutes, hours. The model have to be able to generate long-form content.Ethan [00:51:42]: So putting these three together, it’s, real-time, long horizon interactive videos. I think the final state will be, for example, like a video, a video version of Playbook, where you can, you can interact with, a neural computer. You move your mouse, and you click on the generative interface, and it will reply to you through pixels- generating in real time. But getting there, it’s, it’s a very long way to get there. So one of the first step, at Grok Imagine, where I led a small world model team there, was to build video extension. So, video extension- it’s the first step of interactivity. Yeah. It’s, it’s the first step. Yeah. So it’s the first step- You have it here, video editing, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So the first step is because, this unlocks long horizon videos. Typically, for most of the video generation models, you give it a prompt or an image as an initial frame. You generate video, that’s it. That’s just, one time, done. And some creators would try to, use the last frame as a first frame for the second video. It can-- sometimes it works, but if you do it a few times, it says the quality would decrease. And- It doesn’t have that context- Yeah over the full video, so the temporal- Yeah, exactly. Yeah, ‘cause you only gave it the last frame, of course, right? Yeah. Exactly. And- it’s actually a pretty fun hack. if you’ve seen like- Oh, no, he’s saying something better. Yeah. And for example, like Vue, I remember Vue 3 has like a second context of the last video. It is slightly better than using the last frame, but it has the same problem-- similar problem that it, the quality would decrease. if you extend a few times to, one minute, the video quality would look much worse than the first video. Second, another problem is that the model doesn’t have long-range knowledge of, what’s happening before. Say, if they generate some dialogue, some, two people speaking, and their voice might change, over some time, especially if the second conditioning, it does not cover the previous context. So these are the core challenges. So the Grok Imagine video extension, it has historical context of all of the previous generated videos. It can, It has, it has the context of, who is speaking and what objects have appeared and everything, having that to generate the next video. So if we naively do this, you can imagine, just, put all of the previous history video tokens into the context. The context lens will easily explode. Especially for video models, that can be like a few, a few million context, I would imagine- context lens. Yes.Yeah.Swyx [00:54:58]: Let’s run with that.Ethan [00:54:59]: for example, like in Cosmos, I think just five seconds of video is like a fifty K or sixty K number of tokens. So like if you do, if you do fifty second, that’s a five hundred K tokens. If you do longer than that, easily explode. This long horizon, problem was the first step we’re trying to solve world model. It turns out people, yeah, people love video extension. Like a lot, a lot of the creators love using video extension to create longer form videos. This is the part I liked that you have a, you have an intermediate step toward the final goal instead of just a straight shot to the final version very much.Swyx [00:55:48]: But I can see you have a strong vision of where we want to end up.Long Context, Redundancy, and Efficient Interactive VideoVibhu [00:55:51]: Does it seem like it’s an efficiency issue? okay, we’re at a few million tokens context,. If you draw the parallel to language models, we had very short context, two thousand, eight thousand, then, you scale it up one million, ten million. sure, there’s effective context, but at the end of the day, it’s just what’s it worth? sure, there’s a whole training data side. In video, it might be slightly easier ‘cause we have a hundred million token video, right? Just take a movie with the full context there. Like is this efficiency from an inference standpoint that like it’s expensive, but we know how to solve it? Or like why is this not the approach? So like my broader point was on your second point of world models, you say it needs to be interactive and live, right? You should be able to play a game and see the interaction live. So one thing I see with research is a lot of what you actually serve is different than what you build, right? So we talked about distillation. You train big model, you distill it, you do quantization, speculative decoding. We do all this stuff to serve it efficiently. Should we not just have a solution, like a world model that can interact well, do inference optimization, serve it, distill it secondary, so make it real time after you solve it? So like a-- another parallel is say, continual learning, right? What we need is someone to solve it and show it works inefficiently. Give it a few years, people will make it efficient. Same thing with regular attention, right? It worked. Over a few years, people have different forms of attention, and we’ve scaled it to be efficient at log context,? So kind of two things there, right? One is it seems like it works. You’ve scaled it. Can we not just scale it a lot more efficiently over time? Do we need a separate approach if this works? And same thing with interaction, right? if we can get it done, like if we can solve some way that it works, we can solve making it more efficient from an inference standpoint later.Ethan [00:57:53]: that’s actually a very good point. So in videos, there’s actually a lot of redundancies. So we solve a lot of the pixel redundancy from VE, but there’s more redundancy in long range and long horizon videos. Say, if a character appear in the first clip and then it disappeared, it only reappear at the end of the video, you probably don’t need the-- the context, like in the middle of the generation. So you only need that character, where you need. So that’s why, I helped build another feature. It’s a reference video.Vibhu [00:58:36]: Is it here?Swyx [00:58:36]: is it the same model release or different one?Ethan [00:58:39]: It’s a different one.Ethan [00:58:41]: You probably need to search onSwyx [00:58:43]: I’ll find itEthan [00:58:43]: X reference to video.Ethan [00:58:46]: So reference video allow you to like upload up to seven images as condition and generate the video. Say, if like I want-- it can, it can be characters or objects or even scenes. Say like I want, I want condition on, Sean’s selfie and holding a bladeSwyx [00:59:07]: We have a dogEthan [00:59:08]: or whatever.Swyx [00:59:08]: We put the dog in the thing.Ethan [00:59:09]: you can put them there and the video models will generate the video from and copies the context over. So that can solve a lot of the problems there, like the long context problem. It doesn’t need to have a very long context, but it’s-- I feel like it’s an intermediate solution. The modelSwyx [00:59:29]: It’s cheating.Ethan [00:59:30]: the model should be able to like selectively know, where should I draw the references. So say if I want to generate a movie, I generate it autoregressive, like a ten second at a time or something. And now this character appear, I can look back to where it first appear and, bring that back. Yeah, this one, I put the references. Yeah, that’s, Optimus, Einstein myself, Annie.Vibhu [01:00:02]: Oddly enough, I used Grok Search to find it, and it pulled your LinkedIn post. But yeah we found it.Ethan [01:00:08]: Interesting.Vibhu [01:00:10]: ButxAI’s Underrated Work, Culture, and WatermarkingSwyx [01:00:11]: this is a problem. This is not your fault, but like XAI doesn’t communicate all this work that you do very well because they just have the model release and then that’s it. But actually, these details are very good.Swyx [01:00:22]: As far as I understand, everything you just described is state-art, like no one else has done it.Vibhu [01:00:30]: A lot of-- yeah, I have a lot moreSwyx [01:00:32]: And then, and then you just put this blog post with the cookies. I’m this is not enough,?Swyx [01:00:37]: but I, obviously this is like the high level numbers that people want to know. But no, okay, soVibhu [01:00:42]: And I wonder, like part of that is also some labs don’t share research into what happens. And ifSwyx [01:00:50]: No, but this is literally bragging about how good they are, right?Swyx [01:00:54]: Like, why would you not say that you are capable of extending with full context? this is not a secret sauce. This is like we did the work. yeah, I don’t know.Ethan [01:01:02]: different labs have slightly different communication styles.Swyx [01:01:07]: Anyway, if anyone from XAI is listening we are always happy to help you tell your story. Yeah, okay, so you did references, and I think, I think kind of the point you’re, you’re making is it is sort of like a kludge, right? this is-- you can do seven, but what about 100?Swyx [01:01:23]: Right? Then you need a completely different thing.Ethan [01:01:26]: So I think it’s-- this is, a mechanism to, select the context from the history, and you might not put the entire history into the context. for example, there’s a paper called Frame Pack, which haveEthan [01:01:41]: a heuristic that the latest history, the last one second, I put the entire history, and the history before that, I would, compress it and makes the video smaller. So they follow this pattern, this build overall pattern that the maximum sequence length is fixed. So the further you are from the current frame, you have a smaller image. So this is just a heuristic. I think it can be more automatic. The model is aware like which history part of it can be select. So this part of the research is actually being actively, worked on by a lot of people. It’s also quite interesting. I feel this is actually, this part of long context is a little bit ahead of the LLM part.Ethan [01:02:31]: So for example, like in LLMs, if you-- so contexts keep growing. Let’s say if you call tool and the tool call history is extremely long, that’s still in context, and keep growing, keep growing. Even if you switch the topic to something else, the whole context was there. There are some agentic harnesses that help you to, say, prune the tool results and, prune Like when you, when you query a file, only show like the top 200 lines or something. Those were very heuristic-driven.Swyx [01:03:08]: For listeners, we did a write-up on the cloud code, leak where there are eight different kinds of pruning, including like you prune the tool results and all that. So you can, you can read up on that kind of thing.Ethan [01:03:17]: I think, one breakthrough in continual learning might be like a way to automatically, manage its own context.Swyx [01:03:27]: These are all heuristics, and they will be replaced by machine learning.Ethan [01:03:30]: InterestinglyVibhu [01:03:32]: TheEthan [01:03:32]: the same thing is being researched in both LLMs and video models.Vibhu [01:03:36]: The interesting thing is also like in the paper you showed, it’s actually happening at the model level, right? Compared to like language models, sure, we have base attention, but we’ll do our own compression, we’ll do our own pruning, which is separate from model error.Vibhu [01:03:49]: Eventually, it all just boils in, hopefully.Swyx [01:03:52]: I think this is a form of like attention, but like also know sort of reasoning attention. I feel like that’s different than normal attention.Swyx [01:04:03]: Does that, does that make sense?Ethan [01:04:04]: It’s, it’s different in the sense that attention, not to mention, set sparse attention aside, like normal attentionSwyx [01:04:13]: Like UKV, yeahEthan [01:04:14]: you have to attend to all of the tokens.Ethan [01:04:17]: So you don’t have a high-level mechanism to drop which tokens do-- you don’t want to attend to. As humans’ attention span is surprisingly small.Ethan [01:04:28]: You can only remember 11 digit of a phone number.Swyx [01:04:32]: But I have feature detection, right? I can detect, oh, that’s a sequence of one, two, three, four in a phone number that is 11 digit.Vibhu [01:04:39]: Very good pattern matchers.Ethan [01:04:41]: But humans’ context can-- like attention can work because we can dynamically pull in, context from different places. The same mechanism, I think is going to happen for LLMs and video models. I think we haveSwyx [01:04:57]: RLMs is recent-- is on, it’s on the recent work is there, which is not that, crazy, but it’s just recursive.Vibhu [01:05:04]: I think it’s somewhat inherent in models too, right? Like youSwyx [01:05:06]: No, here’s a nice example hereVibhu [01:05:07]: you pull up these, you can read it fine, but, language models are also very good at slop parsing. you have a transSwyx [01:05:15]: I throw my typos in there, it doesn’t matter.Vibhu [01:05:17]: You have a, you have a transcript, you have whatever, just throw it in and it’s very good at parsing through noise. m-- that may be a brute force. It can look over a reason over it, but there’s, there’s parallels to both.Swyx [01:05:31]: I think it’s just really fascinating how you relate the world models stuff to the video generation, which I don’t think a lot of people hear directly, from people like you. So I think that’s really helpful. Any other work? Do we cover like video, audio, world models, any other stuff in that omniSwyx [01:05:48]: team,?Vibhu [01:05:49]: Or any other work at XAI you want to talk about? Seems like everything we see publicly announced, “Oh, cool, cookies.” And then there’s so much more to it.Swyx [01:05:58]: There’s a lot of depth.Vibhu [01:05:59]: Any underrated stuff, just at the time there?Ethan [01:06:03]: I feel the, as a culture, it is quite interesting and a bit underrated. So the culture is, the culture is three sentences: move fast, build No goal is too ambitious, and the first principle. Like early, the goal set was very ambitious. It wasn’t very-- this wasn’t-- it wasn’t possible to achieve when I, when I was thinking, first thinking about it. Like for example, like build something in three months. AndVibhu [01:06:36]: Was that “Okay, we’re starting team, we want image, we want video. Do it by this deadline.” Or, how do you work back? Like was it just, “Okay, we have a rough by, this date we want something out,” or is this likeEthan [01:06:52]: That’s a very good point. So it’s from first principle thinking.Ethan [01:06:56]: If you think about, people might say that first principle thinking applied more to the physical world than the models. I would say, for example, like if you think about-Some limitation, for example, acquiring data, like how fast can we acquire the videos? And if you think about training the models, what’s the iteration speed for training a model end? And how would adding more GPUs accelerate that timeline? And maybe if you need human data, like what’s the turnaround time for human data to arrive? If you put all of those together, that is first principle thinking where, oh, like what is the timeline? What’s the minimum number of days that is possible to achieve something?Swyx [01:07:52]: I think there’s a-- this is a lot of Elon’s type of thinking, right? He’s like-- I think he’s famous for saying that the only law you can’t break is the laws of physics, something like that.Swyx [01:08:01]: Just broadly, you worked a lot with Elon.Ethan [01:08:04]: I, one benefit is working at xAI, you got a chance to interact more with Elon. So I was very fortunate to get a few retweets from him, and that was quite fun. And, he also worked very closely, with people. like people imagine online, like he’s very hands-on.Vibhu [01:08:34]: There are two things. one-- So I was actually looking up, Elon retweeting you. I’ll pull it up. he talked about you tweeting that you have a really good voice mode. I don’t knowEthan [01:08:47]: Oh, me?Vibhu [01:08:47]: No. Him.Swyx [01:08:48]: Oh, I also did it. But anyway.Vibhu [01:08:49]: I actually-- So I would DM you feedback on voice mode because I was “Wow, really good.” And then I’m “Ugh, this sucks.” But, I don’t know. Anything you want to talk about your voice mode, building it? Was it a team you worked on as well?Ethan [01:09:02]: Oh, that’s actually not part of the team I worked on.Swyx [01:09:05]: He probably worked on more of the video. No, but Grok Voice actuallyVibhu [01:09:11]: Grok VoiceSwyx [01:09:11]: like very good. I-- This is one of those things where first of all, you can speak at 2X, which is fun.Swyx [01:09:16]: which I listen to 2X, so I like to speak at 2X. But also I think like the interruption was better than Gemini. I don’t know how it compares to ChatGPT real time now, but as far as like driving was concerned, like having Grok in my Tesla and like driving, I think it was like-- it’s a really good experience.Vibhu [01:09:34]: He likes voice mode. But also, just the crazy reach by ElonSwyx [01:09:40]: Fifty million views for just saying, “Yes, true.”Vibhu [01:09:43]: That’s true.Swyx [01:09:44]: Oh my GodVibhu [01:09:45]: but, it’s, it’s pretty cool how fast it came out. the other thing is the safety aspect of video mode. Anything interesting to talk about there? SoSwyx [01:09:56]: spicyVibhu [01:09:57]: spicy question.Ethan [01:09:58]: A lot of the countries where they don’t allow like a generative data-- generative AI videos without watermarks. So in all of the-- those countries, Grok Imagine had watermarks, and a lot of the-- a lot of the takedowns of the videos were also happening extremely fast.Swyx [01:10:22]: it’s, it’s part of running a social platform but also it transfers nicely to the GenAI side. Do you have a perspective on SynthID versus other kinds of watermarking?Ethan [01:10:33]: it’s going to beEthan [01:10:37]: it’s going to be harder and harder to detect, the Yeah, these things. So SynthID, one thing is, previously it was only Google, and now, like a lot of different labsSwyx [01:10:52]: OpenAI adopted itEthan [01:10:52]: are also adapting it.Ethan [01:10:54]: As-- A limitation is like the technology The paper was out there, and people can reverse engineer like how to get rid of it.Ethan [01:11:05]: And it’s-- I think even as it advance, it’s, it’s still possible to reverse engineer it.Swyx [01:11:13]: so if you are interested, you can go onto Reddit and people have taken out the exact I don’t know, what do you call it? Mask or pattern that Google applies, and then you can apply it onto any Google-generated photo, and you can reverse out the SynthID.Ethan [01:11:30]: And it’s, it’s also harder and harder to just judge by eyes. I remember like a couple years ago, there was like six fingers or something. It’s very obvious.Vibhu [01:11:42]: My current is actually the audio. I feel like the audio is really lacking. my way to tell if something is generated, outside of okay, I think I’ve seen enough, I have a decent eye, the audio matchup, especially of Sora, is not great. It’s all similar style. But there’sSwyx [01:11:57]: I see. those are minor imperfections.Swyx [01:11:59]: I think the point is that like-- Actually, my closest reference to this is also Ian Goodfellow, ‘cause I think he did like the adversarial GAN thing where like it’s okay, here’s a picture of a zebra. Then you like change one pixel, and it becomes a panda.Swyx [01:12:12]: Right? This is like-- this is like a classic computer vision issue.Ethan [01:12:15]: If you think about how these models were trained, like I, like I mentioned before, like GAN was in the training process. The objective of GAN is you-- is the model generates an image, and the model, there’s a judge to tell like if the image is real or not. The model is trained to make the image more real. So as the model become more and more advanced, it’s going to be harder and harder. For me personally, now I have to judge byEthan [01:12:49]: if the-- these videos have logical sense.Ethan [01:12:53]: If these, this videoSwyx [01:12:55]: Have a world model.Swyx [01:12:57]: No, I also like it-- the audio is too nice, like too studio quality. The lighting is too good. The skin is too clear. the-- basically, the lack of imperfections.Vibhu [01:13:10]: Do we have a good way to do reasoning in diffusion? Like is that what separates video generators from world models or in, -We really know how to apply it to other regressive language models. Is there a parallel for diffusion video gen world models like on that point, right? IsSwyx [01:13:30]: He has a thing on video agents.Ethan [01:13:31]: that’s a good question. Yeah, actually, I have a, I have a pretty big claim. The intelli- the visual intelligence are actually mostly coming from language. these video models, especially from now, since the diffusion model technology is more mature, the every time you see there is some improvement on these models, I would say mostly, this, again, comes from language model, not coming from the vid- the video model itself, like the video distribution models themselves. In Cosmos, that could be Typically these models, they have two parts. there’s a, there’s a prompt rewriter or the prompt up sampler part. I think in Cosmos, we use Llama or we use Mix- Mixtro. And the Cosmos video model itself is only 7B, and the model, the language modelPrompt Rewriting, Video Agents, and Agentic GenerationEthan [01:14:35]: is a prompt rewriter. It’s, it’s bigger than that. So the prompt rewriter’s task is to take user instruction and convert it to extremely detailed description of the video. So because the video, the visual-- the video distribution models, I would describe, they’re kinda dumb because they take the inputEthan [01:15:03]: instruction literally. Because in the training process, remember that we have to describe the video as detailed as possible when we’re creating the synthetic, text pair. So this model, they take those kind of instruction to generate the videos. So in-- when you’re taking the user instructions, the user instruction usually are simple. Just say a cat or something. If you put a cat in the video model, they would take that instruction literally. They would literally show a cat, a cat in maybe a white background because you didn’t describe the background. The cat is not moving because you didn’t describe it. It takes the instruction quite literally. It’s kinda, it’s kinda dumb. The prompt rewriter is actually a much bigger model. It’s a language model that takes, the user instruction and expand it. So the thinking process you mentioned, is from there. So if you, if you look at like GPT image, like you generate a image in three minutes. Three minute is not all like a pixel generation. A lot of time is spendingVibhu [01:16:19]: Prompt writingEthan [01:16:19]: on thinking.Ethan [01:16:20]: So prompt rewriting now have evolved to, not only just as thinking, it can, it can also be a agent, a agentic model. For example, say you want, you wanted to generate the image of today’s news. So the-- So it’s likely they’ll go to fetch today’s news online and then, process and digest them, then organize the layout and generate it. Another thing quite interesting is,Vibhu [01:16:53]: If I’m not mistaken, these are-- it’s no longer a diffusion model though, right? It’s autoregressively Or is there stillEthan [01:17:02]: There are different approaches. For example, Gemini Omni. Since they said it’s Omni, I believe it’s a, it’s a single model. Maybe it’s something it’s a language model with a diffusion head or something. Like the language model do the thinking, do the agentic tool calling, and then it would, use the diffusion head to generate the image in the end. There were also approaches like Cosmos, where you have a separate language model and separate diffusion models. And there were also like a purely language model, like you discretize the images, and then you generate the image as discrete tokens. So there are different approaches. I would say likeVibhu [01:17:44]: One of, one of the claims I’ve seen for why these approaches struggle is because a lot of the benefits for how we currently learn reasoning with language models is you basically iteratively generate reason. You have your thought, and then you work on that answer, right? So if you have like Omni model and then diffusion head, you can’t feed that back in to continue reasoning, right? So you can’t go like text, image, text, image. You can’t reason on the output and then go back to diffusion. But in the new Gemini Omni, you would be able to, as long as you have diffusion.Ethan [01:18:15]: I’m not sure ifVibhu [01:18:16]: ButEthan [01:18:16]: they have that process. it’s definitely possible in the Omni paradigm.Ethan [01:18:22]: So if you think about like traditional multi-model language model, they would have a VIT encoder that can encode the image. So if they have a diffusion head, they can generate the image and then put that back into the VIT encoder, encode that, and then do the iterative refinement if the result Yeah.Swyx [01:18:44]: I think you have to jointly train the VIT and the diffusion to make that somewhat reasonable, ‘cause otherwise you’re kind of mismatching or feeding in slop.Vibhu [01:18:55]: I think it depends on the stage of training. You might be able to freeze it. But anyway, also just on your earlierSwyx [01:19:00]: Wait. I wanted to also make explicit. We do know that NanoBanana and GPT image are autoregressive, language model with diffusion head.Swyx [01:19:09]: as far as I can tell from your description of Grok image, it is not. It is, it is end.Ethan [01:19:14]: I cannotSwyx [01:19:15]: You cannotEthan [01:19:15]: comment on that.Swyx [01:19:16]: Well, the way that you described it. but, yeah, I think it-- there’s, there’s different approaches, right? Like you started off saying prompt rewriter is, the-- a big part of the intelligence.Vibhu [01:19:24]: and even on that, I think everyone should try using an early diffusion model. If you’ve used Stable Diffusion one or whatever, if you’ve seen the prompts ultra-high res, four K this style, oh my God, the first time I tried one, you don’t talk to them like language models, right? Your prompting is very, comma separatedSwyx [01:19:43]: It’s literally talking in the labels that were in the data set, right?Swyx [01:19:46]: But basically, I’m just trying to make the point that prompt writer and then image is different from autoregressive language model with diffusion hit. Right? They’re different things.Ethan [01:19:56]: they’re different.Swyx [01:19:57]: Just wanted to establish.Ethan [01:19:59]: I’d say, the common part is, the image part. So it’s, it’s quite surprising that, a lot of the improvement came from theSwyx [01:20:12]: Language sideEthan [01:20:12]: the thinking the tool calling. So I still remember, in Cosmos, I generated a happy sheep and can if without any rewriting, it’s-- it looks so, CGI, and after rewrite it looks, it looks so beautiful.Ethan [01:20:31]: I thinkSwyx [01:20:32]: Without any joint training.Ethan [01:20:34]: actually, without any joint training. it’s-- with rewriting, it’s already much better. See, a very interesting thing, what happened is the video agents, mostly language models, will call these, generative model, either it’s a separate model or a diffusion head or whatever, as tool. So this model can iteratively refine the results or even, generate longer content through a very long train of thought. It’s actually very similar to how human create art. So we don’t, we don’t generate the pixels directly. We literally draw something on And I think through this process, the-- these models not only use diffusion as one of the tool, it can also use traditional tool. It can also use, image editing tools from Photoshop. It can use, video editor, FFmpeg, whatever, to take combination of these and the generative AI technology as a, as a set of tool, and they can, they can iteratively create a better, a much better, video for production-grade quality. If you look at existing, professional creators, they don’t, they don’t end at, generating a video from these models. They would take this video to their editor and edit here and there.Swyx [01:22:11]: So much post-production in And sometimes actually, the reason the video is good is not really the video model, it’s actually the editing.Swyx [01:22:21]: And yes, we also are engaged in the same process as well. Would you love to use a video editing model?Ethan [01:22:27]: Actually, there’s, Grok Imagine Agent beta. That was the, that was the first attempt in that direction.Ethan [01:22:38]: So I think, the process would be similar to likeVibhu [01:22:44]: It’s just agent mode.Ethan [01:22:46]: you can, you can ask it toSwyx [01:22:48]: There’s no blog post for itEthan [01:22:49]: maybe generate a minute, video, which is not possible if you ask the same prompt to video models. But this model will ca- literally call different tools to do that.Ethan [01:23:05]: So yeah, this is actually an interesting thing. So when we first released, a video editing model, I see on X some people try the video editing feature with, “Edit this video to be one minute.” ‘cause they didn’t understand how video editing work. Video editing typically is just a removal, add, replace, style transfer, this kind of thing. But that’s actually a valid request under the assumption of video agents. So these agents should be able to understand these kind of, long horizon tasks to be able to easily, create a long-form video. I think this is, this is really fascinating ‘cause it’s kinda take-- it’s taking the same direction as first you have these, assisted-- assisted coding, kind of like tab completion, GitHub Copilot. And from there, you gradually evolve to Codex and Cloud Code, where you do things fully automated. So in agent, in Grok Imagine Agent mode, you can, you can still go in there and do stuff by yourself.Ethan [01:24:22]: gradually, as the model capability increase, it will be able to do everything fully automated.Swyx [01:24:30]: I like that. okay.Ethan [01:24:32]: That’s good.Swyx [01:24:32]: So it looks like it’s still generating.Vibhu [01:24:34]: Also, I did notice the Grok image gen was always very fast. I don’t know if this is something you guys benchmarked, but, this is just a tangent. Compared to what I used to use before the latest OpenAI’s image gen, and same with Gemini Nano Banana, I would oftentimes use Grok just for the speed.Swyx [01:24:54]: It’s, it’s in the benchmark somewhere that’sVibhu [01:24:56]: It’sSwyx [01:24:56]: in the Imagine API blog post that they have all the speed things.Swyx [01:25:00]: it mostly combination of distillation plus inference.Ethan [01:25:04]: There are a bunch of things. we talk about distillation, and if you talk about thinking, if you don’t have any thinking budget, the model can just think three minutes and then come back to you. And also, inferenceThe inference infra team was very talented, and they were, they were able to accelerate a hell lot of these models.Swyx [01:25:27]: my comment on the, on the video agents things, I’m trying to figure out, when people say video agents, when you initially told me about your bet on video agents or your vision for video agents, I was a little bit disappointed. I was “you mean, like models are tapped out, now we have to do agents?” But, I think you have to, right? The question now is, how much model training is it really going to make a difference versus just building a better harness? Like you said the models don’t have to be jointly trained. you can just take an shelf frontier reasoning model, slap it on a harness, give it Grok as a tool. That’s it. That’s your video agent. Doesn’t seem super satisfying. Obviously, you can train and get some more percentage points of per- performance. But, if your central claim that the majority of video or generative media, alpha or whatever, is actually coming from language intelligence and not, image diffusion or video diffusion, then that is the future.Vibhu [01:26:30]: it’s pretty coolSwyx [01:26:31]: It’s just like primarily just weight.Vibhu [01:26:33]: If you pop back at the example, it generated frames. Sorry to interrupt, it’s been saying “Okay, I’m gonna start stitching these frames together.”Swyx [01:26:42]: SoVibhu [01:26:42]: It’s using FFmpeg like using code.Swyx [01:26:43]: This is what GPT Image Pro as well is doing, right?Swyx [01:26:46]: Like, this is also just writing code in the background and then justVibhu [01:26:48]: StitchingSwyx [01:26:49]: doing an image pass on the final output. It feels dissatisfying for the people who want to just train models.Vibhu [01:26:54]: It’s interesting, right? it’s, it’s also somewhat exciting. Like you brought up earlier, a lot of the gains don’t come as much from the video. I think you can see that in the language model space too, right? Anthropic, very good at coding. They’re multimodal, not the best, right? They have basic input PDF, but there’s clearly a disconnect in the quality of their image video processing, audio processing, yet intelligence very top tier. Other labs, Gemini, OpenAI, xAI, you can add modalities, but it’s not like they’re unlocking crazy capabilities, right? So it’s interesting.Ethan [01:27:32]: It’s interesting to see that, like the video model’s capability increase actually come from language model being more intelligent. I think video agent, like it can unlock more stuff than my- you might imagine. So there’s a few things. So one thing is when we are prompting these models, so most of the people were actually not very good at prompting.Ethan [01:27:59]: Actually, language models have a better sense of how to prompt AI models. AI models know AI models better. So if you jointly train these models, maybe the model have a better sense of, how to prompt each model. Like a different modelVibhu [01:28:15]: Of courseEthan [01:28:15]: might be different. Another thing is it might not as simple as just, like generate a few clips and slap them together using FFmpeg. Like you might-- there might be more like image and video editing tool appear in this process. Say, if you want to exactly add a blob of text at this timestamp, the videos model-- video models might not get that intention very precisely.Ethan [01:28:48]: But these are possible using these deterministic tools. The long-- The video agents can use all sorts of tools, so you don’t have to put all of the capabilities into the generation model itself.Swyx [01:29:04]: I think that’s very true. no, so for what it’s worth, I think you’re right. I think that this will be a big category. I think probably you are predicting like the next one year in video is gonna be all this.Vibhu [01:29:18]: Do you have a time prediction for how-- when this stuff ramps up? LikeSwyx [01:29:22]: they already started.Vibhu [01:29:23]: Is,Swyx [01:29:24]: It’s not very good yet.Vibhu [01:29:25]: Are we so-- No, it’s so, it’s so good. I think the last one’s just longer.Vibhu [01:29:29]: it didn’t give me a minute.Ethan [01:29:30]: Last thirty-six.Vibhu [01:29:30]: It gave me thirty-six seconds. But are we feeling it now? Is there gonna be inflection? Is there any timeline predictions you wanna make?Ethan [01:29:37]: by the end of this year is-- this is going toEthan [01:29:41]: be a big hit. So the inflection point will be where, the videos generated by video agents can get to like production grade quality, so it can be presented and it can be, it can be distributed in ads. And when-- once that happen, I think the enterprise will have much more budget for video models because the agents are, inherently more expensive than the, than the video models themselves, ‘cause they do this iterative process. They generate many variations.Ethan [01:30:23]: but once these models have this, pass this usability threshold, I think it’s, it’s going to be a exponential growth beyond that.Swyx [01:30:35]: I would, fund a company right now based on this thing.Robotics, Physical AI, and Internet-Trained World ModelsSwyx [01:30:40]: so I think you’re right. One thing I’m, I’m surprising, I’m reflecting on the whole like past hour or so of conversation, you are-- I think you’re into world models and video generation for video generation’s sake. I think that a lot of other world models people, we’ve interviewed a lot of them, general intuition and Fei Li and all those guys and Moondream, which I think I told you about. Moonlake.Vibhu [01:31:01]: Lake.Swyx [01:31:01]: I keep saying Moondream. Goddammit. Moonlake. A lot of them actually say like robotics is the end game. Like embodied robotics, like you want real-time, you want interactive. It is to interact with the physical world. You’re not that concerned about it.Ethan [01:31:15]: I think robotics will be a, will be a big part of it for sure.the process may happen naturally. So my prediction on robotics is that the problem is physical AI might be solved, like without actually need toSwyx [01:31:36]: Be in the real worldEthan [01:31:37]: need to be in the real world. So it might, it might get solved by a video-- A LLM is very strong video capability. So remember we talk about the real-time interactive long horizon video. Once these models-- So now these models are just training on like screen recordings and computer screens. Once these models can use computers and understand the future state of computer extremely well, the robots might be, might be one of the, one of the tools, a very powerful AI can use. So the powerful AI might just, be able to control the physical embodiment naturally.Why Ethan Left xAI and What Comes NextSwyx [01:32:28]: I see that for sure. Cool. I know, I know we are coming up on time. you had-- you left one more spicy topic, which is why you left xAI.Ethan [01:32:38]: For me, there’s, there’s a lot of, a lot of research you want to do that you cannot do at, as a company. And also like the priorities and objective the-- of a company typically can change very fast. It is-- It’s also the same for xAI. So now is kind of like the time so there is some research I want to do, especially more on language model side like I cannot do at xAI.Swyx [01:33:11]: Oh, okay, yeah. So you’re, you’re basically leaving You’re, you’re-- you had this whole transition from computer vision to world models, video generation, to now you’re like focusing on LLMs.Vibhu [01:33:22]: But it seems a lot of you saying focusing on LLMs, you really in the past hour described how it all ties together, right? Like But I don’t know. What do you mean by focusing on LLMs? Is thereEthan [01:33:33]: I realize the fact that the video models, even like in the beginning, the game might come from improvement on diffusion technology, but this is a point where actually most of the game, come from the language models themselves.Swyx [01:33:50]: It’s a huge black pill for anyone who has like spent their career in like generative, media.Vibhu [01:33:56]: it-- that’s an extreme view, right? The-- You still definitely need a bit of both, right?Vibhu [01:34:01]: There’s just, it seems like more pressing, impactful work to do now on language model side.Swyx [01:34:07]: Do you have any similar predictions? you-- so you predict the video agents, and I think you will be right. on the language side, what are you looking for in the next one year?Ethan [01:34:16]: I think one thing pretty interesting I think might be happening soon is the language models will be like context-aware and manage its own context.Ethan [01:34:29]: So some-- Like from the video model side, we’ve been suffering from the long horizon issue, like we want to generate video longer and longer, and we’ve been trying to solve the context length issues through various ways. One thing is just brute-forcing train longer context lengths. Another is to manage the context better. I think the same thing in language model is also going to be happening soon. So for example, like the language models, they’re not aware of how long their own context length is. Once they hit like eighty percent or something, automatic context compression is getting triggered. And the model, is not aware of that when it’s working. And some-- maybe it’s good for the models to know, “Oh, I’m, I’m approaching like eighty percent,” or something. And something also pretty interesting, like for example, in OpenClau, like you-- every time you type in something, a times-- the current local time is automatically attached to your message, so the model actually know what time is it. So this is making the model time-aware. And also like in tool calling the-- a lot of the intermediate tool call results automatically prune. So there’s like context removal, context addition, and, context compaction. So all of these are from the harnesses themselves. But from our experience, the heuristic engineering also helps the models get this absorbed into the models themselves. that’s something very interesting to explore.Vibhu [01:36:12]: So infinite context?Ethan [01:36:14]: Maybe.Vibhu [01:36:15]: No, but it’s, it’s interesting, right? youSwyx [01:36:17]: It is in the space of memory and continual learning andVibhu [01:36:20]: I don’t know. It’s also like in the space of agent harness use, right? You’re seeingSwyx [01:36:25]: No, he’s saying he doesn’t want to do it in a harness, right?Vibhu [01:36:27]: No, but models are also being trained on uni-- using harnesses, right?Vibhu [01:36:32]: So some of it is, you could say, implicitly leaking in, right? part of that post-training of language models is, okay, using it in coding harnesses, in which case, when are agents spawned? When is compaction gonna happen? it’s not explicit you have this much token window, which I don’t know if you want it to be, as that’ll change, but it’s, it’s somewhat leaking in there.Ethan [01:36:58]: I’m imagining, what if the model have access to the whole-- the code of the agent harness itself and being able to modify it to whatever you want. Say, if the agent harness is short enough, you can just put in the context lengths in the system prompt, and then the model will say, “When I want to spawn a future version of myself, I can modify the agent harness.” For example, if I-- the agent harness can be, “Oh, when I’m reading-”A long document, I can choose to read the whole thing in chunks and, come back, smash the summary together, or I can just read the first two hundred lines and, discard the rest. And all kind of choices, if they can be made by the models themselves, it might be very interesting to see that the model can, program the model can program itself online in test time.Career Lessons: Moving Across ML DomainsSwyx [01:38:02]: so the self-modifying harness is also part of, OpenClaw and Py, but I think there’s a lot more work to do there. Very cool. I think part of me is kind of curious. I think you are part of Big Lab, right? And there’s this career path of a researcher at a Big Lab, which is you are-- you train models, you get more compute, you train better models, and you keep going. And somewhat, I feel like you’re opting out of that. And if I were you, I would be “Oh, I think this is, a bit of a career risk.” what?Swyx [01:38:36]: I don’t have any comment apart from, you’re very strongly convicted. I think that a lot of people in your shoes would not be doing what you did.Ethan [01:38:43]: Speaking of my career, if I look back, actually, there were, there were a lot of huge transitions. So ten years ago, I was, I was doing research with a ResNet authors, Xiangyu Zhang and Jian Sun. Yeah, at that time, the research were completely different. It was, mostly confirmation, like image recognition, object detection, object tracking. I was also doing neural net compression at that time. It was quite different from knowledge dissolutions these days. And at that time, I was-- I wanted to be a professor, and I applied. When I applied for a PhD, I already had a few first author papers at top conferences, so I confidently applied at the top schools. It turns out I got rejected by all of the top PhD programs. So I had to, I had to go to the industry. At that time, I was at Facebook AI Research fair, led by Yann LeCun.Swyx [01:39:51]: I wanted to talk about VJPA, but it’s different.Ethan [01:39:53]: I know. Yeah, we can leave it for another time.Ethan [01:39:57]: I switched to At that time, I switched to self-surprised learning. It was, it was quite different from what I was doing in contribution.Ethan [01:40:07]: And after that is NVIDIA Cosmos. So I realized scaling up was extremely important. So at NVIDIA, I was mainly focusing on scaling. So one thing is Cosmos scaling the video distribution models to a few billion parameters. And another thing is, I was working on MoEs. The Megatron MoEs was the first, was the first framework open source to be able to train these MoEs at very large scales, hundred billions parameters to even trillions parameters efficiently at, forty percent MFU.Ethan [01:40:51]: And going to switching to xAI was trying to work on even larger compute scale even further. And yeah, looking at this trajectory, I actually worked on a lot of different things. So I feel actually within ML, it’s actually easier to switch than you think. a lot of people might have mindset that, “Oh, I work on, I work on computer vision. I always have to work on computer vision, and I cannot switch to language.” And, but from my experience, at least at NVIDIA, I worked on both language model MoEs and also video models. It’s, it’s actually not the case. A lot of, a lot of the core principles how to train large models are largely the same. And yeah, for me, I feel right now the bottleneck, for video models is actually the language part the agent, which is why I want to go to work more on LLMs. One thing is it’s, it’s a bit of a challenge. I don’t think it’s a huge, jump, so.Closing ThoughtsSwyx [01:42:18]: kudos to you. I think you have a lot of, strong vision there. Yeah, I think that was mostly everything that we wanted to cover. You’ve been very generous with your time, and I, it’s really nice that you are able to share all these things now. We don’t have to go through xAI to clear everything. but also weEthan [01:42:35]: Oh,Swyx [01:42:35]: I think we didn’t get you in trouble.Ethan [01:42:37]: It’s a lot of good stuff about xAI compared to what you just see in the releases, right? You don’t realize how many more levels there are to it.Swyx [01:42:44]: xAI, please do more podcasts.Swyx [01:42:47]: anyway.Swyx [01:42:48]: but thank you for, sharing. It’s been very kind. And also, I wanna hear more from you. I think you are going to embark on your next phase. You haven’t announced what you’re doing next, but clearly you have, more vision and more ambition on this path, and I think you’re, you’re basically kind of gradient descending to, whatever your final form is.Ethan [01:43:08]: Thank you. Yeah. Yeah, I’ll, I’ll share more about my next chapter soon.Ethan [01:43:14]: Thank you for having me.Swyx [01:43:16]: Thanks for coming. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• The Age of Async Agents — Cognition's Walden Yan & OpenInspect's Cole Murray 28.05.2026 1h 8min

  The new AIEWF website is live! CFPs close in 2 days and we will run our first New Engineer Orientation this weekend, get your tickets booked ASAP as they -will- sell out. Take the AI Engineering Survey and get >$2k in credits and free AIE WF tickets!One of the central tensions in the agents industry is that even while there are major decacorn agent labs like Sierra, Decagon, Notion and Cursor being built up, it is also true that it has never been easier to DIY agents, with a plethora of agent frameworks like LangGraph and Pydantic and Flue, and managed agents from Anthropic and Gemini and Amazon. There has been a wave of companies building their own background agents from Shopify to Stripe to Paradigm to Razorpay, and even Cognition’s friends Ramp have built their own coding agent with other friend Modal.You’d think Cognition might feel a bit threatened, but they’re not - even after all this, they were way oversubscribed for the $1B Series D they just announced:Walden Yan, coiner of context engineering and Chief Product Officer/Cofounder of Cognition, invited OpenInspect’s Cole Murray to talk about why the Devin is in the Details.Full conversation live on the pod today: In retrospect, async agents were the most AGI pilled bet you could make in 2024 - the models weren’t good enough yet to vibecode, and people didn’t trust AI enough to let it rip, nobody (including early Cognition) was sure about the form factors. Now it is obvious:* The first wave of AI coding tools made the developer faster but remain heavily in the loop. Copilor and Cursor’s tab autocomplete are prime examples However, the workflow was still heavily centered around and bottlenecked by the developer’s local workflow: a developer in an IDE, watching the model, accepting or rejecting changes, and pushing code one interaction at a time.* The second wave was local agents: Claude Code, Windsurf, Cursor’s agents pane: first one and increasingly many terminals all running concurrently.* The current Age of Async Agents points to a different future focused more on agent orchestration which drives end-to-end development.According to previous guest Steve Yegge, there are finer-grained 8 levels to agent adoption, but we have collapsed it into three.As Cursor’s Michael Truell put it in The third era of AI software development:Cursor is no longer primarily about writing code. It is about helping developers build the factory that creates their software. This factory is made up of fleets of agents that they interact with as teammates: providing initial direction, equipping them with the tools to work independently, and reviewing their work.The agent should not sit solely inside the developer’s flow. It should be setup to work in the background so that you can give it a task, a repo, a machine, a shell, a browser, tests, memory, and review loops to go do the work somewhere else.In less than a year, the sentiment has shifted from avoiding multi-agent systems:to suggesting approaches that actually work:From coining “context engineering” to building the infrastructure behind Devin’s 7x PR growth and jump from 16% to 80% of commits across Cognition repos, Walden Yan has had a front-row seat to the background-agent shift. In this episode, Cognition co-founder and CPO Walden Yan joins swyx alongside Cole Murray, creator of OpenInspect, to unpack why everyone is building their own Devin, what changed after the December 2025 model inflection, and why “spec to pull request” is now becoming a real production workflow.We go deep on the architecture of background agents: harness-in-the-box vs out-of-the-box, why Devin separates the “brain” from the machine, why repo setup is still one of the hardest problems, why Docker is not always enough, and how full VMs, snapshots, scoped secrets, GitHub bots, Slack integrations, and video-based testing all fit together. Walden and Cole also dig into memory, MCP limitations, multi-agent orchestration, AI code review, SRE auto-triage, PMs shipping code from Slack, Windsurf 2.0, hybrid frontier/sub-frontier systems, and the real failure mode of uncontrolled vibe coding: your codebase regressing to your worst engineer.And as agents eat software… and software eats the world… you can draw the conclusion on what is next:We discuss:* Why the engineering world is waking up to background agents and cloud agents* The December 2025 model inflection that made spec-to-PR workflows practical* Devin’s 7x merged PR growth and rise from 16% to 80% of commits* Why Cole built OpenInspect as an open-source background-agent system* The economics of $20/seat agent products and why monetization is tricky* What Cognition actually sells beyond Devin: infra, onboarding, integrations, and adoption* Harness in the box vs out of the box, and why architecture matters* Why Devin separates the brain from the machine for security and permissions* Repo setup, scoped secrets, Docker Compose, and agent-ready dev environments* Why full VMs matter when agents need to run real applications and test them* Android, macOS, Windows, nested virtualization, and machine-specific agent work* Why testing is much harder than “computer use”* Screenshots, video verification, and the “I know it works” merge moment* GitHub UX, Devin Review, AI reviewers, and agents responding to PR comments* Why MCP alone is not enough for first-class Slack and enterprise integrations* Memory, Knowledge, skills, Claude.md, and why retrieval is still unsolved* Devin’s auto-generated memories and the challenge of memory pruning* Always-on agents as permanent PMs for issues, tickets, and product areas* Sub-agents, meta-Devin management, and what multi-agent systems actually add* Why pure auto-merge vibe coding breaks down after about two weeks* AI code smells, lint rules, reward hacking, and Semgrep for agent-written code* GitAI, inline context, and preserving the “why” behind code changes* Local testing, mock servers, older codebases, and preparing companies for agents* Windsurf 2.0 and the handoff between local foreground agents and cloud background agents* SRE auto-triage, support workflows, and agents as first responders* PMs, marketing, and non-engineers creating pull requests from Slack* AI agent budgets, $1k-$5k per engineer spend, and hybrid frontier/sub-frontier systems* The rise of autonomous coding factories and who Cognition is hiringWalden Yan* X: https://x.com/walden_yan* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/waldenyan/Cole Murray* X: https://x.com/_colemurray* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/colemurray/* OpenInspect / Background Agents: https://github.com/ColeMurray/background-agentsTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction00:00:43 Why Everyone Is Building Their Own Devin00:01:57 Devin’s 2025 Ramp: 7x PR Growth and 80% of Commits00:03:49 OpenInspect and the Rise of Open-Source Background Agents00:07:59 What Cognition Actually Sells Beyond Devin00:09:56 Background Agent Architecture: Harness In vs Out of the Box00:12:08 Separating the Brain from the Machine00:14:07 Repo Setup, Secrets, Docker, and Full VMs00:19:13 Why Testing Is Harder Than Computer Use00:22:40 Video Verification and the “I Know It Works” Merge Moment00:23:19 GitHub UX, Devin Review, and AI Code Review00:25:42 MCP, Slack, and Enterprise Agent Integrations00:28:59 Memory, Knowledge, and Always-On Agents00:36:16 Sub-Agents, Multi-Agent Orchestration, and Meta-Devin00:43:55 Vibe Coding, Auto-Merge, and Codebase Decay00:48:38 Agent Infra, VPCs, Cloud Providers, and Fast VM Restore00:52:25 AI Code Smells, Reward Hacking, and Code Review Systems00:56:10 Making Codebases Agent-Ready00:58:30 Windsurf 2.0 and the Local-to-Cloud Agent Handoff01:01:15 SRE Auto-Triage, PMs Shipping Code, and Agent Use Cases01:04:32 Agent Budgets, Hybrid Models, and Autonomous Coding Factories01:06:51 Hiring at Cognition and OpenInspect Consulting01:07:45 OutroTranscriptIntroduction: Walden Yan, Cole Murray, and Context EngineeringSwyx [00:00:00]: All right, we’re in the studio with Walden Yan, co-founder of Cognition, CPO.Walden [00:00:08]: Happy to be here.Swyx [00:00:09]: Which is a cool title. And coiner of context engineering.Walden [00:00:15]: Although I think there are many people who’d used the terms in various ways beforehand, but I did find that people, both internally and externally, enjoyed the upgrade from prompt engineering or model wrapping into maybe a more thoughtful way to build agents.Swyx [00:00:33]: For those who haven’t caught up on that, I have on screen the Don’t Build Multi-Agents post, which you should go read on and we might refer to, and Cole Murray, who created OpenInspect.Cole [00:00:43]: Great to be here.Swyx [00:00:43]: So let’s talk about it. Everyone is building their own Devins. What’s going on?The December Shift: From Handholding Models to Autonomous PRsCole [00:00:51]: So I think the engineering world is waking up to this idea of background agents, cloud agents, whatever you’d like to call it. And I think we saw a shift around the December timeframe of 2025, where the models Opus 4.5 and GPT 5.2, they reached a capability where we moved away from handholding the model and being able to actually more or less autonomously drive the model. And what I mean by that is that we could pretty much go from a specification to a completed pull request, assuming the spec was good enough, with very little friction. And that paradigm alone, I think, changed a lot of how we interact with agents, and opened this world where background agents became more practical.Swyx [00:01:41]: I think for Cole, everyone experienced this in December, but I feel like there was just this increasing ramp, right? There was this moment which was, I think, Sonnet 3.7, where, You guys rewrote Devin in one night or something. So describe 2025 or how it felt from your side.Walden [00:02:01]: In retrospect, we always thought it was ramping up, but then even now, over the last three, four months from today, it’s been ramping up even faster. So it’s almost funny to be talking about how, big of a leap Sonnet 3.7 was, and honestly, a lot of it was stripping out parts of Devin that were no longer needed with that jump in of intelligence. But I also just think that a lot of the recent leaps, especially, you look at, models like Opus and the latest GPT models, they are reaching levels of autonomy where people are actually finding that they actually can just be hands-off. And people who were once debating, “Oh, do I need to be in the weeds with my model in the IDE? Can I just completely move it off into the cloud?” That’s a more serious conversation, and we’ve seen that in all of our growth charts. Internally there’s this funny graph where our usage has, of PRs, our merged PRs, has grown 7X since I forget what it was called.Swyx [00:02:57]: I think Dev, maybe tweeted that. Yes.Walden [00:03:01]: it grew like 7X over, the last, I think it was, two months, three months, something like that. And then you see our engineering headcount growth. It’s, gone up by, 10% or something.Swyx [00:03:11]: We were, we were afraid To release this. So this is Devin commit percentages on all Devin repos, was 16% in January and now 80% in March.Walden [00:03:25]: It’s a big shift right now. And so it makes sense that a lot of people are now thinking about, buying Devin, but also maybe, trying to build their own and there’s Lots of I have a lot of fun building Devin, so I can see why other people would want to build their own cloud agents as well. Matt, well, maybe it’s good to hear, what initially inspired you to try to build OpenInspect?OpenInspect: Ramp, Cloud Agents, and Open SourceCole [00:03:49]: OpenInspect came about, through primarily my clients observing how they were using tools like Claude, OpenAI’s Codex at the time, and seeing some of the friction that they were having with it. Primarily the Claude was being used through Slack, and a big issue they ran into was that the sessions that were launched were specific to whoever called it via Slack. And so if a PM was the one who invoked the session and they would then go to pass context to engineering can’t see the session. And that in itself was a deal breaker because the PM, “Hey, engineering, can you jump in?” But there’s nothing to jump in on unless they’re copy-pasting out or the single response that came back. And so seeing some of these problems, I had built a similar architecture internally, just to experiment with, test out different ideas as this trend of moving off of localhost was starting to become, And as Ramp released their blog post, I had a lot of the pieces for this already in place, and just thought it would be funny to, see what Claude could do just purely from the blog post. And on my X account, there’s actually a thread of where I live tweeted, going through thisCole [00:05:14]: comparing GPT and Claude as both of them are going through it.Swyx [00:05:17]: On the announcement thing or something else?Cole [00:05:19]: right after it got released. We can put it in the show notes. Yeah, it was helpful that I had already knew how to verify the system. I knew what I was looking for. I think Ramp did a great job of really illustrating, the technical aspects of how to build something. It was much more than just like, “Hey, we built a great system.” It was, “And here’s how you can build it too.” And so, I resonated a lot with that, just with the problems that I was already seeing, and I thought that, looking around, I didn’t really see anything in the open source community that, met this type of system. I think there’s a lot that run, in localhost like Superset, Conductor, and many others.But nothing that was actually running in the cloud. And so, I built it, and I thought it was interesting to just open source it and allow anyone to then have a foundation that they can mix and match on top of.The Business of Background Agents: Open Source vs. DevinSwyx [00:06:16]: So literally after Devin was launched was, there was OpenDevin Which became All Hands. I don’t know if you tried that orWalden [00:06:22]: I was going to say, one of the things that interested me a lot with OpenInspect was, you didn’t try to go make it then something you monetize. There are a lot of, I think, these open source projects would then go and really try to, raise VSwyx [00:06:36]: That’s why no OpenDevin. Yeah.Walden [00:06:38]: yeah, and how did you think about that? I thought that was very interesting.Cole [00:06:44]: I thought, and just what I had seen across my clients, was that having a background agent system is going to become a critical infrastructure within their company. And so because of that, I think that I wanted to open source it so that they could fork it and put in whatever customization they wanted. To that question though, I get asked all, “Oh, are you going to raise? Are you going to turn this into a service?”Walden [00:07:08]: I’m sure you’ve gotten offers.Cole [00:07:09]: but primarily I don’t want to do that for a few reasons. One, I think that I don’t want to compete for, $20 a seat. I think that is just a really difficult business. I think it’s very easy to copy the main pieces of it. Again, I built this fairly quickly. And I think because you are not owning, I guess, the entire stack, it’s hard to monetize. You have money being made at the sandbox layer with Daytona, E2b, many other players. You have money being made at the model layer. And you sit in this weird in-between gray area where what are you actually selling? You’re selling, I guess, the infrastructure. You’re selling, the integrations maybe.Swyx [00:07:55]: let’s ask the guy. What are you What are you selling?Walden [00:07:59]: Well, yeah, there’s multiple layers to this in practice, and actually it’s funny you mentioned the infrastructure, ‘cause when we got started building Devin as well, we had to go figure out how to make the infrastructure as well because,Swyx [00:08:10]: You had to build this two years before everyone else,?Swyx [00:08:15]: Including, the model sideWalden [00:08:17]: It was not, it was not very polished at the start, when we just built it off of raw VMs from cloud providers like EC2, the boot up time was so slow, I think, And especially then, turning off the machines, saving them, and then to be able to bring them back up again when the, when you want Devin to wake up again later. It would just be out cold for like 10 minutes because that’s just how long these systems took. They were not built for this repeated down and up usage. And so we actually had to go do all of that. And as a result now, one thing we offer when we go and sell Devin to people is, you don’t have to worry about all the compute side of things. We’ll make it work. We’ll make it work in your cloud if you want it to. But aside from the product, and I want to go into the agents and the tuning of the intelligence part later, but I think a big part of what we do at Cognition as well is to just make sure that your company learns and uses and adopts these coding agents. ‘Cause I think for especially the largest enterprises in the world, you find that there is a lot of people who want to move over to using AI for their day-to-day workloads. But because of the way projects are planned, because, not everyone is literate in using AI in these ways, having a team of engineers who can actually go in and onboard you, set up all the integrations you need, the automations you need to really get to that level of, leverage with AI, is super helpful. And so We do that. We show thought partners to the customers that we work with as well.Swyx [00:09:56]: So let’s talk about, architectural stuff. I think that’s always, that is something that was the topic of conversation between the two of you. Is this, the mental model that you want to start with or something else? I’ll just leave the floor open to you guys.Agent Architecture: Harness in the Box vs. Out of the BoxCole [00:10:11]: I think, maybe we can start here as just a general what are the pieces of a background agent system. And then maybe we can go into some of the nuances of, Decisions that you can make.Swyx [00:10:22]: But I guess I also Like, what, maybe what Walden is saying is the agent is like in this open code box, I guess. Right? This is infra, and then there’s, that’s the agent. And you had this discussion about whether you put the agent in here or in Out externally. Can you tease that out?Cole [00:10:39]: In a background agent systems, you have a decision to make of where the agent is actually going to run. This is typically described as the harness in the box or out of the box. With running the agent in the box, you’re making some trade-offs by doing that. The negative trade-off you’re making is primarily security. Because the agent is running in that box, unless you otherwise design it, all of your secrets need to go into that box as well. And given the nature of AI, it can be unpredictable, and you could very easily end up accidentally exfilling your secrets, or other unintended behavior. Now, the out of the box is the idea that we are going to have the actual agent running not directly in the sandbox, and we will have, quote-unquote, the brain of the agent running in some type of worker, control plane. That sandbox then is going to serve as the hands where the brain is basically operating and making tool calls into that environment to manipulate it. I guess other trade-off that you’re making between the two systems is that, in my opinion, running it out of the box is much more complex because, you have state that has to be managed, whereas if you’re running it in the box, all of the state of that agent is actually in the box, and yes, it’s you could persist it elsewhere, but it’s all localized and you have less concerns to worry about.Walden [00:12:08]: I think a lot of that, what you mentioned, is why we actually from the start built Devin to what we called separate the brain from the machine. The other thing that this allows you to do is reuse any existing infrastructure you have for dev boxes Perhaps. And so you don’t have to worry as much about making a new type of dev box that has all the dependencies the brain needs, as you mentioned, the secrets the brain needs as well. One thing that we’ve seen some customers run into is, you have a GitHub app and you want Devin, your agent, whatever, be able to interact with GitHub through this application, but then you have different users with different actual permissions. If they are all interacting through the same GitHub app and there’s no actual, separation between the system that decides, what it does and the actual secrets on the machine, then you run into an issue where, okay, it’s hard to do the separation. But in practice, with Devin, it’s much easier because we just say whatever you put on the machine, that is, the scope of basically what the user is free to do, what the agent is free to do. So only put the most scoped secrets on that machine, and then the brain is fully not accessible from the machine. So you don’t have to worry about messing with the, any of the most secure parts of the brain if the user is free to do whatever they want with the machine.Swyx [00:13:31]: I was going to just bring, I have this, chart from OpenAI, where I don’t know if this is, in the box, out of the box. That is something that they do use to describe it. And then also recently Anthropic did, managed agentsSwyx [00:13:44]: Which is, this is their thing. I don’t know. It’s all, it’s all variations of the same pattern, right?Cole [00:13:49]: So this would be out of the box.Swyx [00:13:51]: Which, is preferable for them because it’s less work?Cole [00:13:56]: I would say it’s more work.Swyx [00:13:58]: It’s more work?Cole [00:13:58]: But it, in my opinion, it is the better architecture of the two. It’s just, you’re taking on a bit of complexity by doing that.Repo Setup, Docker, and VM-Based Development EnvironmentsWalden [00:14:07]: One thing I’ve not seen a lot of other players do well is how do you manage what’s actually on the box? And this can be complex for many reasons. Let’s say you have a big repository that’s changing and updating a lot with changing dependencies. How do you make sure that the working environment of the agent actually stays up to date, has all the credentials it needs to, let’s say, run the app and test it, and all the things you want your autonomousSwyx [00:14:34]: So a repo setup.Walden [00:14:35]: Exactly. So in, internally At Cognition, we call this repo setup.Cole [00:14:39]: The hardest part ofWalden [00:14:40]: It’s been a perennial problem since the start of the company, of how do we help people get this set up? Because not everyone just has, working cloud environments working out of the box. And do you find this to be a common problem withSwyx [00:14:53]: How do you solve it?Walden [00:14:53]: Your clients?Cole [00:14:54]: This is a very common problem, and through my consulting, this is a lot of what I help teams do. A lot of teams don’t really have great developer environment setups, if any. A lot of the times it’s, “Go talk to Bob and get the secrets,” and that obviously doesn’t work when the agent needs to actually set this up. And so a lot of that, most teams are using Docker Compose or some type of microservices. And so for theSwyx [00:15:19]: Even in prod?Cole [00:15:20]: Not in prod. With the OpenInspect, you are using this primarily to interact, and make code changes. There is other use cases, but you can hook, whether through CLI, MCPs, other tools, you can then hook that into your production systems primarily for, SRE type use cases. But you are not, necessarily, trying to test your prod internal microservice through the system.Walden [00:15:48]: And you mentioned Docker Compose. I think one direction we saw some of our friends take early on was, using Docker containers as the level of abstraction for their models. There’s lots of reasons, I think, why Docker containers are not great. One thing is, Docker container’s not really a true security boundary, for one. But the other is, if you are running real applications, a lot of times those applications use Docker, and then you have to think about Docker in Docker, which is, really weird. And so I think part of, the really hard challenge of getting VMs to work, why did we do that? Well, it was because we realized that you actually needed, full VMs to be able to do these types of things. And especially nowadays where there’s actually value in running the application and clicking around and sending you screen recordings of these things. The value just, keeps adding on top of that. But it is a decision I see people run into when they try to build their own systems, is, “Oh, do we, in addition to this, do we put the agent in the machine or out of the machine? Do we use Docker? Do we use something else?” What do you recommend people nowadays?Cole [00:16:57]: I think Docker is a good solution for maybe not running the agent, but running your infrastructure, because that is more or less the same setup your engineers are probably already using. If they’re not, then I don’t know what they’re using. But they’re probably already using Docker Compose.Swyx [00:17:14]: I’ve always had a small candle for web containers. I don’t know if you guys have tried them before.Swyx [00:17:19]: To me, they were, supposed to be like Docker Light.Cole [00:17:22]: Is it?Swyx [00:17:22]: I don’t know.Cole [00:17:22]: No, I haven’t tried it. But yeah, I think any environment that you’ve set up that is a good experience for your developer naturally lends itself to being easy to set up for the agent. And once you figure out that local developer story, you’ve more or less solved the agent in a sandbox, environment setup. OpenInspect does have hooks as well, where you can, run a setup SH script that will pre-install everything. You can then pre-snapshot that build so it starts instantly, and then there is a second hook to actually then, restore the state of the sandbox when it comes back. And so you can already have all of those microservices running and basically get the same experience that you would on your machine within the sandbox.Testing Agents: Computer Use, Screenshots, and Real App WorkflowsWalden [00:18:08]: Another thing that we’ve been thinking a lot about is like Different VM service offerings. Have you had customers where they needed like macOS specific VMs or like Windows specificWalden [00:18:20]: VMs?Walden [00:18:22]: There are like many technologies in the world that only work on specific types of machines, right? If you’re building a.NET application that has to run on Windows or like, maybe more commonly if you want to build iOS or macOS Does that workSwyx [00:18:32]: Does Commission supportSwyx [00:18:33]: Choices like that?Walden [00:18:35]: The fundamental architecture we do, because we do the separation, it does support, but the actual work in progress is happening right now on these. Another thing that we’ve actually recently added support now for, it’s in beta, is doing Android development. To do that, we needed to support, I think, nested virtualization within our machines because the VM itself is like a, is a virtualized Firecracker instance, and then you had to then run another Android emulator inside. And there’s like weird performance issues that like, it, which is why it’s like still in beta. We have to think through these problems, but it unlocks a lot for anyone who wants to do Android development.Swyx [00:19:13]: I was trying to find like a reference video for the testing thing. I couldn’t find it, but I think you worked on the testing, capability. Why call it testing and not like computer use or I don’t know, it’s, what’s the general Category of problem?Walden [00:19:26]: I think that when people think about the ability of an AI to run your app and test it, I think they actually over-index on the computer use part of it because computer use in my mind is the literal, okay, you want what button you want to click. Can you emit the right coordinates to go click that button? I think testing is actually a really interesting likeWalden [00:19:48]: Problem-solving, challenge for these AIs because if you wanted to do arbitrary testing, imagine you make a change that spans the frontend and the backend, maybe, even some other like even more deeply nested service. To actually test that change, we have to reason through what-- how do you first run these applications to orchestrate with each other with the right version of the code? Then, okay, how do I trigger the feature or how do I make the thing actually happen? And this can get arbitrarily hard, maybe you have to be an admin. Maybe a certain thing has to be feature flagged on. Maybe, you have to like run two sessions and then send us a very specific word into one of them to trigger a specific behavior. And figuring out how do you do that requires a lot of code base context, requires, a lot of orchestration that we’ve specifically done. And in some cases, we found that you actually, no one frontier model can actually do this full end-to-end task itself.Walden [00:20:42]: We’ve seen cases where we actually had to orchestrate different frontier models together to solve this problem together. That is where we spend most of our time when we think about this testing problem, not so much the computer use part. Computer use for what it’s worth has gotten a lot better with recent models and it’s made that part of the job certainly easier.Swyx [00:20:58]: Especially with like even 4.7, that they released yesterday, apparently like way better in terms of the vision stuff, which is going to be encompassing computer use.Walden [00:21:08]: Having evals for all these as well is something that like takes a while to build up. And having the evals be right is tricky as well. Do you ever see like, clients who are building their own agents have to start standing up evals to make sure things don’t regress?Swyx [00:21:25]: Not so much evals in the traditional sense, but specific to the testing part that has just gone in. I just added support for screenshots And in theory you can also do video. I need to put in a plugin to do that. But they do show up natively, and it was a very heavily requested feature, especially after Cursor’s recording came out. I think that was very enlightening for everyone of like, “Oh, this is a very good feature to actually have.”, I think with Devin you guys have had this for a while.Swyx [00:21:57]: Oh, yeah. See how screenshots work. Yeah, I don’t know if there’s anything, super and not obvious. It’s like once what feature to build, you can just prompt it and it Will mostly work.Walden [00:22:09]: I think to Walden’s point, though, the computer use is a subset of the larger testing problem, and I think that’s very specific to the code base that you’re working and it’s not something that, out of the box that you could just solve it. The-- you do need the code base context to actually know how to test it. And I think in the case of a background agent system, you fortunately do have that code base locally that what is changing and could then inspect it and use that to drive the model.Swyx [00:22:40]: For those who haven’t seen it before, this is an example of how it works. You, after the PR is done, you click testing approved, and then it sends you back a video. What I really like is that it labels, It’s very small here, but it actually labels what it’s testing. And then it-- and then you actually see the cursor and everything. So I don’t know, yeah, the engineering in this, just Whatever you want to show. ‘cause this is like, this is one of those like, oh, few of the AGI moments, right? ‘cause Once I look at this, I actually don’t I wish I can just merge inside Of Slack instead of going to GitHub ‘cause I don’t need to see the code. I know it works.Walden [00:23:19]: Maybe a new feature in Cursor. Yeah, the annotations at the bottom was also a big difference for me when I, when I added those.Swyx [00:23:27]: It’s just like, what am I looking at? What are you trying to demonstrate?Walden [00:23:30]: Exactly. There’s a surprisingly long tail of small details that ends up making a big difference for this end metric of like how fast do you actually merge the code in. One experience that we spent a lot of time tuning early on was what is the right experience on GitHub for these tools. Because I think, most tools out there when you build the agent, you’ll think about, oh, it’ll create the PR for you. We try to take that a step further and say, “Oh, what if we actually made sure you could interact Devin, with direct Devin directly on GitHub?” And so we made sure that you can comment on GitHub, and Devin would actually receive those comments and address them back. But there’s actually quite a bit of tuning you have to do here because you can imagine that actually like-We recently have Devin Review, for example. Devin Review will post comments on his own PR And then Devin has to then goGitHub Workflows: Devin Review, Comments, and PR AutomationSwyx [00:24:23]: He answers his own comments, which is Really loopy. So like, yeah, I like that it just updates here that it’s, that I have commented But usually it’s just me saying like, “Hey, merged, fix any merge conflicts.”Walden [00:24:37]: The, so when Devin fixes his own comments, you might be scared that, oh, maybe I’ll infinite loop. But we’ve put a lot of work into making sure it doesn’t, both by making sure that the comments are high signal, but also that the agent is thoughtful about what comments it immediately goes and tries to fix, and what comments it’s like, “Wait a second, I think you’re wrong.” Actually, that’s one of my favorite moments is when Devin tells me that I’m wrong, when I try to get it to do something different. But tuning that behavior, actually makes a big difference in terms of how useful the actual GitHub experience is.Cole [00:25:06]: I think to touch on that as well, I think having the AI reviewer integrated into the system is a critical part of this background system. OpenInspect does have that. It has a GitHub code reviewer that you can control the prompt. It does do comments as well. It doesn’t do them automatically yet. The capability is there, but it’s not fully used.Swyx [00:25:27]: So you have to ask for it?Cole [00:25:28]: you do, yeah. You can tag it on GitHub, and then whatever you named your, GitHub bot, it will then follow up on it. It will then, if you have merge conflicts or whatever you have asked it to resolve, it will then resolve it, but it doesn’t do it automatically yet.Integrations: Slack, MCP, and First-Party Agent InterfacesWalden [00:25:42]: Well, I’m curious, what is, the most common thing that people end up requesting, that they still need on top of OpenInspect when you help them go implement it?Cole [00:25:52]: I think a lot of it comes down to actually integrating it into the company. It’s one thing to have the background agent system set up, but if it isn’t actually integrated into your larger ecosystem, it isn’t that useful. It is useful to be able to kick off sessions, but what we really want to be able to do is hook it into all of our other systems, whether that is the production database with read-only credentials, the logs, a Confluence or internal knowledge-based system. I think that is where I see the huge leap for companies, and that can be a challenge for companies as well who are maybe not familiar with exactly how to approach it, especially if they’re in environments that have more compliance type things where, access control can be pretty big and how do you deliberately think about these problems, I find to be, one of the problems that comes with a system like this.Walden [00:26:46]: The thing we found is So, MCPs, obviously it has been like this, really big explosion of, oh, you can go, integrate it with all these different things. But to actually get the integration right and the and get the right experience, oftentimes we found that we had to go build our own ad hoc things. I think Slack is a great example of this. You could give your agent a Slack MCP and okay, it can post messages back to you on Slack. But we actually use Devin like a coworker in Slack, and that’s how it’s been built from the ground up. But to do that, you actually need to, support webhooks that come back, right? And then Devin has to respond in a natural way and then hopefully don’t spam your threads too much and annoy the people in your company. So you got to tune that experience just right. Especially when there’s a lot of back and forths, we find that we actually have to go beyond the simple MCP integrations in these places.Swyx [00:27:39]: I just pulled up the MCP marketplace. I know this is a Fair amount of work. Is the answer to eventually take first party control of all the top MCPs? Is that theWalden [00:27:48]: I would love a world where you could have something that’s more expressive than MCP. That, goes both ways, not just a set of tools, but a proper system that interacts back and lets it Have the right experience with all these interfaces.Swyx [00:28:03]: So there actually is sampling in the MCP spec, but nobody Uses it, right?Walden [00:28:07]: And so I think that’s the other part is, actually we found that when the MCP spec starts to get too complicated, it starts to lose its original promise of Being like a simple one-step connect. Now then we have to go figure out how to support all these different variations of things and It starts to look a lot like just building the first party integrations in a lot of these cases now.Cole [00:28:29]: I think it matters, too, how critical it is to your company, right? If this is something that nearly every session is going through, it probably makes sense to own it so that you can make optimizations on top of it Versus just whatever is off the shelf.Swyx [00:28:43]: Awesome. Other than MCPs, what else, sorry, well, I don’t know if that’s Narrowing in too much on, integrations. But what else? What other elements of building OpenInspect or Devin that you guys really sink on?Memory and Knowledge: What Agents Should RememberCole [00:28:59]: I think, a problem that comes up very frequently is this idea of memories or knowledge base.Swyx [00:29:05]: Oh, boy. How do you solve it?Cole [00:29:08]: so not solved yet, is the short answer.Cole [00:29:11]: it’s something, there’s a open issue for it, someone asking about it.Swyx [00:29:16]: There’s, I, D Wiki hasn’t indexed anything about memory yet.Cole [00:29:20]: how I’m seeing it solved across my clients is primarily through skills. I find that skills can be a good gap within that or updating Claude MD, but I think memory as a whole is a pretty unsolved problem, and it is why I’ve been hesitant to add it. I think there is parts of memory and that can be addressed, but I think as a whole it’s a very difficult retrieval problem.Swyx [00:29:44]: Oh my God. RAMP didn’t write anything about memory? I see zero search results.Walden [00:29:50]: No. Memory can be quite tricky to get right because it’s the retrieval, but also the generation of the memories that can be really tricky. You don’t want it to just like Remember very specific details.Swyx [00:29:59]: Walk us through the Devin memory journey because I know there’s been a journey.Walden [00:30:03]: the first version of memory that like stuck around for a while was A system we have called Knowledge. And the idea was we wanted it to pick up things over time and not need the user to be proactive about teaching Devin things. So, okay, any time you remind Devin, “Wait, no, that’s not quite the way you’re supposed to use Git”Like, we actually want Devin to say, “Hey, do you want me to actually just remember this for the future?” And for you to just basically quickly approve or reject and for it to build up over time. ‘Cause I find that, 95%, I think, or some crazy stat like that of the memories that Devin has are all through these auto-generated things. Very few people actually just want to sit down and write big docs on Here’s how you’re supposed to work with the technology, et cetera. The generation and the retrieval has been something that we’ve been trying to tune a lot over the years. Generation, you don’t want it to remember something like, if you asked one time to like, “Oh, please open as a draft PR,” you don’t want to be like, “Oh, everyone forever now should get their PRs as draft PRs.” But you do want some, conveyor. Maybe you want to say like, “Oh, Cole generally likes, things to be created as draft PRs.” Same with retrieval, if you have thousands of these memories, how do you actually make sure they’re retrieved at the right time? And that can be quite tricky to do right without exploding the context with a bunch of useful yeah, useless information. Surprising amount of just, eval work to just make sure that, memory is, remains a reliable system as new models come and go.Cole [00:31:31]: Do you have anything that you could share on, memory pruning? And like the temporal aspect of memory?Swyx [00:31:36]: Deleting and forgetting?Walden [00:31:39]: The, today, the, So the things they could do is it could edit memories. And so if your memory used to say like, “Oh, Cole likes to open everything as like a draft PR,” then you can imagine, “No, don’t do that.” And then it’ll say, “Oh, do you want me to update the memory to be Cole now want everything as, open PRs?” I think that at the same time we don’t know if this is going to be the final version of the system. Whatever we have here will probably, translate into the new system that we’ll be coming up with. But I think one big difference between two years ago and today is these agents are really good at using anything that resembles a file system natively. And so part of us are, is thinking, “Oh, should we rebuild memories to feel more like a file system that we let the agent navigate on its own?” That’s been an interesting exploration. Also similar ideas in the scale space.Swyx [00:32:35]: I am pulling up OpenClaude’s memory thing right now. So memory, OpenClaude has like this like daily memory journal thing, right? And you can I mean, that is a file system you can grep through and is a source of truth. I don’t know if it’s the best. It’s probably super noisy, but at least, if you lose something you can discover it or you can apply some, forgetting algorithm to, more ancient memories that don’t get recalled again or something. I don’t know.Walden [00:33:01]: One thing we’ve been trying to do to push the boundaries of how you use agents at your company is letting an agent basically have a very similar file, a memory.md or something, and just like be your permanent PM for a specific set of issues maybe. So we have like some Slack channels internally, maybe a Slack channel dedicated to, a specific product like DeepWiki maybe. And you can imagine that, or you want a Devin that never stops, it’s just always awake, but it has this like memory dock that it can just maintain for itself about, okay, what are like the number one priorities of what we have to fix and prioritize? Who is responsible for some upcoming work? Maybe they’ll even Devin will even tag you on some recurring basis. And so it’s been an interesting move to see, okay, how can we actually use Devin for more than just engineering? Can we actually upstream above the engineering process and maybe it’s just Devin creating tickets, which then maybe some humans do, but then maybe other Devins do.Swyx [00:34:00]: One of my more fun automations is go research competitors and just suggest stuff to me on a weekly basis. That’s the automation. I can’t find it right now, but basically it just like, “Look at competitors and suggest things.” “And here are three things that you’ve suggested that I don’t want any more of,” and you just stick that in the prompts. But like I wish actually So for like when I, for example, when I reject a PR, I wish that it updated memory so that I can then just not have to go up, go back and update the scheduled, sync, but anyway, feature request.Walden [00:34:31]: what? We might change it soon. I guess OpenInspect, in the time you’ve been around, has there been anything you tried to implement but then you had to like undo and like do a different way?OpenInspect Architecture: Webhooks, Control Planes, and Agent StateCole [00:34:41]: Nothing yet, but something that is on my mind. The initial way that I built it was that each of the integrations lives as its own package. And so you have The Slack bot, which is what’s handling the webhooks, and then is basically interacting with the control plane. As I’m seeing the system starting to be more integrated, specifically with the GitHub bot integration, I’m considering bringing that all into the central control plane because especially now I want to start, And a request that I’m getting is the ability to monitor, the actual, pull requests being merged, as well as just tracking ofSwyx [00:35:19]: What do I have open?Cole [00:35:21]: What do I have open? How many of these are getting merged? How many comments are showing up? To just understand the health of the system. And so in the case of a GitHub app, you only have one webhook. And so then it’s a question of do I put that webhook in that GitHub bot package? That’s weird. It doesn’t really make sense to live there because that package is more for like the code reviewer. Or do I like centralize it? So that’s something that’s on my mind of, making that decision. I think the other one we touched on earlier is the harness in the box versus out of the box. I think long term the architecture will eventually come back out of the box. Some of the newer tools that I’ve added are calling back into the control plane so that you don’t have the secrets in the sandbox. And so I think long term I probably will pull the actual, agent out of the box, but I think for now it’s fine.Subagents and Multi-Agent Systems: When Parallelism Helps or HurtsSwyx [00:36:16]: Just, a quick question on pulling the agent out of the box. I’m One thing I’m very bullish on this year is agents calling other agents or spawning sub-agents or Whatever you want to call it. Does that make it harder or easier? I can’t tell. Because if the harness is in the box, you can just spin up more boxes. If the harness is outside the box, then you’re, it’s less easy because you are, you have a unicorn pet of a, of a harness that’s, living outside the box.Cole [00:36:45]: In theory it would be the same way, right? Whether, one agent has launched many, sub-sessions within it, OpenInspect, for example, can launch sub-sessions and actually create other environments and then monitor them. In the case where it is out of the box, that would basically just be an additional session that’s running. And so that session is also running outside of the box. It’s running in your worker plane, wherever you’re running this. And then you really just have to think about how does your top level agent then interact with it. I do think it can be more complex, just ‘cause again, you have now a more difficult architecture. But I think if you figured it out once, it’s probably fine.Swyx [00:37:26]: Well, then I’m just, throwing it open to you in terms of, I call this like meta Devin management. Which is like the, Devin’s calling Devins or Devin scheduling Devins or querying trajectories or anything like that. What have you built or unshipped, anything?Cole [00:37:46]: I think one of the surprising things we’ve seen is that a lot of the ways that, these, separate agents work with each other, and you want them to, parallelize their work, has still mostly followed the same manager sub-agents regime. And a lot of people I think are excited about this world where you have swarms of agents that, talk with each other all over the place. We’ve actually given Devin an MCP so they can just go arbitrarily message other Devins And create new Devins, et cetera. But I guess, it somehow creates, a really chaotic world in that sense. And so we’ve still found that most practical use on a day-to-day basis has been one single Devin.Cole [00:38:33]: Figuring out how to segregate the work and get, have other Devins work on it in, a relatively isolated sense, each with their own boxes Not sharing machines, so there’s, a very little room for conflict is the regime that you have to create today.Swyx [00:38:50]: I’ll call out, the experiments from Cursor, right? This is Wilson Lin’s work on Single agent to multi-agent, and you’re obviously famously on the side of don’t build multi-agent. But they went through the whole thing, only to arrive at, this Which is exactly what Devin has, I think.Cole [00:39:08]: I think there will be a revision to that post at some point AboutSwyx [00:39:12]: Tell us about itCole [00:39:12]: I think multi-agents were very much not at all possible a year ago. You do see more multi-agent experiments today, but you can argue, are they really multi-agents, or are they just just, tool calls,? There are people who, will create sub-agents to go look for XYZ file, XYZ implementation. Has really nice context management benefits because all of the tool calls and tokens that it spends then get collapsed back to just the answer for the main agent. There’s a lot of benefits to doing this. We basically have Devin do this with Deep Bookie, make a call out to Deep Bookie, give you back the results, but that feels like a tool call,? It’s not like these, two collaborators actually talking back with each, back and forth with each other. But I think the thing that gives me the most bullishness that multi-agents might actually be possible is actually what I said earlier about Devin will actually sometimes tell me I’m wrong and push back, and I think that demonstrates a level of maturity and communication today that makes a multi-agent world possible. One, can two agents who have seen different information come back to each other and actually figure out who is right, what is the correct implementation? They’re not just, yes men. Claude, I guess is like, used to just say, what is it? “You’re right,” or,Swyx [00:40:25]: “You’re absolutely right.”Cole [00:40:26]: “You’re absolutely right.” Yeah.Swyx [00:40:28]: The Have you seen, did you seeCole [00:40:29]: The age is overSwyx [00:40:30]: The Codex app troll in Topic? This is the Codex app. Inside of Settings, there’s a little, there’s a little Easter egg, right? So if you go to, the Themes or Appearance, right? There’s all these, color codes, and the top is absolutely, and it’s the Topic’s colors. Which is such a troll. Anyway.Model Behavior: Pushback, Adversarial Prompts, and Agent SkepticismCole [00:40:53]: I love that Easter egg. Did you discover that yourself?Swyx [00:40:54]: No, it was, someone was, tweeting about it And I was like, I was like, “Is this true?” Because, sometimes people just tweet stuff to, get a rise out of you. But yeah, there you go, in Topic colors.Cole [00:41:06]: Yeah. So yeah, we’re out of this regime where, it just says you’re absolutely right, and they can have real conversations and real back and forths.Swyx [00:41:13]: You can prompt it as well to be more adversarial or whatever. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, that, I mean, to me, that is more intelligence, right? That is not just something that’s, a dumb tool, it’s actually pushing back on you I think. Yeah.Cole [00:41:24]: when you mentioned, of course, the blog posts. There was one blog they had where they fed a swarm of agents together and built a browser.Swyx [00:41:34]: That was I think that was the one.Cole [00:41:36]: You can have, likeSwyx [00:41:37]: I think it’s the same oneCole [00:41:37]: Creation of it. We found a surprising success of, don’t do a swarm or anything, just have one Devin, it does its own context management. Just let it keep running for a while and give it some crazy tasks. I think we asked it to, rebuild, a Windows OS system. And it managed to do it just like, going on for long enough. It’sSwyx [00:41:55]: Was this Andrew’s thing?Cole [00:41:58]: there were lots of demos that we ended up not posting, ‘cause at some point we’d just be posting way too much a bunch of, Demos. But I love that because it shows that I think the multi-agent thing still has, a bit of exciting sexiness to it, which is maybe still beyond still, the actual delta it adds to the capabilities of these systems. But it’s absolutely the future. I think we’re heading in that direction and we can see the progress being made there already.Swyx [00:42:25]: If I were to, make one super minor pushback because I don’t feel that confident about it yetCole [00:42:33]: Go for itSwyx [00:42:33]: But I’ve had Ryan Lopopolo from OpenAI on the pod And he’s a super slop cannon, right? Oh my God, that’s my coding agent being done. I downloaded this, Peon Ping. I don’t know if you guys have heard this. It takes like-, sound packs from popular games like, Command and Conquer and Warcraft, and then it plays it whenever it’s done. And so it’s like, “Work,” or whatever, “At your command,” or something. Anyway, what I got from the Cursor code base and from Ryan’s thing was that there’s a slop cannon approach where you try to loosen the single agent’s, bottleneck, and I feel like that is, probably an, a very important thing to try to figure out. I don’t think anyone’s, really solved it. Because then you just have more reviewer slop on top of the agent slop To try to wrangle it all. Ryan will probably very strongly object that I say that he hasn’t solved it, but he thinks he’s He thinks he’s completely solved it. But I think it’s still I think it’s, very important, ‘cause, that is a bottleneck, right? I feel Devin is slow sometimes Because I’m like, well, yeah, this is very readable and very sensible, but also it is slower than it could be if I just, I want a button to just say, “Just ramp this up 1,000 next parallel, in parallel and just, see what happens,”? And I don’t know if that’s, feasible at some point in the future.Code Review, Entropy, and AI SlopWalden [00:43:55]: I And we’ve also run experiments internally where we’ve basically tried to build entire products, true products that we knew we would eventually ship, but for now, let’s try to see if we can do it just by purely, vibe coding on top of each other, auto merge, no code review at all. And then there’s this benchmark of how many weeks can you go onto this for Before you say, “We have the trashiest code base.”Walden [00:44:18]: “Let’s actually rewrite it from scratch.”Swyx [00:44:19]: Start a new factory, yeah. What’d you find?Walden [00:44:21]: I think we found that the state-of-the-art in December was you can probably, run this for about two weeks. By the end of those two weeks, you’d find that, hey, you want to, change the color of a button. Well, it turns out this button is implemented in, 10 different places, and they, have All these different variations, and oh, you forgot one of them, and actually it’s a slightly different color in one spot. And you’re like, “Okay, this is too much to work with. Let’s actually try to do code review at the same time.” And make sure that we’re on top of our software, actually cleaning it up a bit And making sure it’s done in a scalable way.Cole [00:44:54]: I think building on that, the idea of, you don’t have to look at code, I think is generally a bad idea. And the meme that I have for thatWalden [00:45:03]: What timeline, all right, is Do you think that statement will be true on?Cole [00:45:06]: I think probably for a while it’ll be true that you should continue to look at your code. A problem that I see a lot of teams run into that I work with who are embracing AI native, AI first coding, is The meme that I have is that your code base regresses to your worst engineer, because that engineer who is, very gung-ho about AI and is not auditing their code, their pattern starts cementing into the code, and now the AI is referencing their patterns. And so now their if/else block that, is 20 if/elses back and forth, the AI is seeing that as the pattern of how things are done and starts to then exponentially grow this slop. And I find to your point, a pretty good approach to that is having scheduled cleanup, whether by humans or through systems, that are looking for duplication. They then address that. You’ll end up with like 12 helpers for how to format a date. And you need to address that, because otherwise it will continue to sprawl.Swyx [00:46:09]: Within balance, I think it’s fine to have some duplication, and then sometimes To have garbage collection, right? Yeah. The What I’ve been, talking about with a lot of engineering leaders is that you want to be very strict about the boundaries between modules, and it’s your job as an architect, as a CTO, whatever, to say like, “Okay, here’s the hard contract between you guys and you guys. Whatever you do inside this black box is your business. You do whatever. But between these guys, let’s be, really damn clear, and any movement must be signed off by a human or me,” or. Then, and like that’s that. I don’t know if you have any other modifications or advice.Walden [00:46:44]: Well, I guess generally on the topic of, where humans can be useful, I found that ‘cause, some of these, really deep infra problems, sometimes just having a human that just has, really deep expertise can make a big difference. I’ve actually seen this come into play when actually building agents. So we’ve had a few friends now, try building their own coding agents, and I think one same problem that I recurringly heard a lot of them run into was this problem of like, “Oh, Grep is really slow on our agents’ machines.” And so a lot of them, I assume because they’re using AI and they themselves don’t have, super deep infra background knowledge, say, “Okay, we’re going to go build our own custom Grep index. It’s going to be really fast,” and use that as a way around this problem. When we ran into this problem About like, maybe like a year and a half ago when we were, in the early days of building Devin, we obviously didn’t have AI then. We just asked our, how to, how to do this. You can just swap out a new Grep index, so.Infrastructure Details: Grep, File Systems, and SandboxesSwyx [00:47:45]: What do you mean you hand-coded Devin? What?Walden [00:47:48]: It’s like, can you believe we hand-wrote this code? And we had, our infra people who are really amazing, they were looking into it and they’re like, “Oh, what? We realized that actually the root cause of this problem is actually super simple, but like fine-grain detail,” which is that a lot of these virtual machines actually underlying them don’t use real file systems. They use these, network file systems where things are actually cached over the network actually in S3. So when you’re Grepping, you’re actually making network calls Every time you’re doing these things, and that’s why Grep is extremely slow on these machines. And so again, goes back to, what is all of the crazy infra work that we had to do to actually get these machines working. If you try to do this yourself, there are tons of small details like this, and so we had to eventually go swap out that network file system. ButSwyx [00:48:35]: I think there’s a write-up about it, right? Silas did one about the virtual file system.Walden [00:48:38]: Oh, that was a whole other thing. TheSwyx [00:48:39]: Oh, that’s a different thingWalden [00:48:40]: The BlockDev file storage formatSwyx [00:48:42]: I’ll bring it upWalden [00:48:42]: Which is, a file system format that we built so that the VMs could be spun up and down very quickly. Basically, the intuition behind this is-Imagine you have, a terabyte of disk, and your agent only, wrote, a hundred lines of code on top of that disk. How long does it, say, take to, save and re-bring up that disk? And most systems, because you’re not optimizing for this case, it’s just, on the order of a terabyte of work because you have to Save all of that and bring it back up. In our system, we try to build a file system that incrementally builds on top of each other. So every time you save and bring the machine back up, you’re only doing work that is proportional to effectively the diff in the file system. And so this, shaves off a lot of time in the boot-up process of Devin. I think we This is actually now outdated. We have a newer system inside of Devin. But yeah, there’s a lot of tiny details you have to get right here to actually get the day-to-day experience of Devin to be good.Swyx [00:49:39]: It’s, not technically agents, but it is agent infra, and when you sell an agent as a company, you sell agent plus agent infra.Walden [00:49:46]: At least the way we do it be And the other The nice thing about having the agent infra being done together is, you We get to deploy Devin in whatever environment we want now. We don’t need to wait for some underlying infra provider to also go and support VPC or on-prem or FedGovCloud, for instance. So we can actually go and figure out, okay, since we own the infrastructure, how can we get that set up for you?Cloud Providers: Modal, Daytona, and Enterprise SandboxesSwyx [00:50:12]: Whereas you’re Cloudflare dependent.Cole [00:50:15]: so Cloudflare runs the control plane. The sandboxes, Modal is supported. A contributor just added Daytona. E2B is on the roadmap, and I think there’s an abstraction in place that if any contributor wants to add a new provider, they can add that in.Walden [00:50:32]: Well, what are, How are the customers you work with Do they generally try to then go set up a contract with another one of these third-party providers? Do they try to do the VMs in-house?Cole [00:50:44]: most of them I see using Modal. I think Modal has a greatWalden [00:50:48]: Shout out Modal.Swyx [00:50:48]: Shout out Modal.Cole [00:50:50]: I think Modal has a great offering. It captures all of the sandbox pieces you need, snapshots being a pretty big piece of that, and given that they also offer GPUs, I think it’s a pretty nice offering as a whole.Swyx [00:51:04]: no debate there.Walden [00:51:07]: Modal is great, especially, I think their container offering is, the most natural, and so especially if you are willing to, forego, the full VM requirements Modal is, a really vast place you can spin something up on.Swyx [00:51:20]: Is there a point So Modal’s very Python, and I feel like most workload, has really shifted to JavaScript. I don’t know if you guys Get the same feeling. So, okay, when I started Landspace and IE and all these things, I was like 50/50 Python and JS, right? That’s roughly. I think that’s wrong now. I think JS has won. I don’t know if you guys Like, I Maybe I’m overstating it, and maybe for cognition, there’s, C# and Java and what have you. But for, new greenfield apps, do you feel that Do you get that sense? Does it matter?Cole [00:51:52]: I think that most of the libraries that I see in this space are Python native first, especially in theCole [00:51:58]: Observability space. That said, I think that there is a pretty big appeal of having your entire system in one language. Especially when you have both your frontend and backend communicating, you can have one central type Which is very nice.Swyx [00:52:11]: That’s my case against Modal, which is Then you have to run JS. You can run JS inside Modal. It’s just, one extra step That, isn’t native to the runtime. I don’t know ifWalden [00:52:22]: I don’t knowSwyx [00:52:23]: Reviews. Do you have numbers? I don’t know.Walden [00:52:25]: the one thing I don’t like about Python is whenever AI, whenever it writes Python, it always does, the weirdest patterns, andSwyx [00:52:32]: Oh, because it’s, mixing two and three or what?Walden [00:52:34]: I think it’s something mixing two and three, yeah. The I don’t know if you see this. It always tries to do, has attribute on objects as likeCole [00:52:41]: Oh, my God.Walden [00:52:41]: But it’s like But that you shouldn’t be doing that. It should error if there wasSwyx [00:52:45]: Because it’s training on library code?Cole [00:52:47]: I think it’s more of, likeCole [00:52:48]: From what I’ve seen, it’s more of, a reward hacking mechanism where it doesn’t want to basicallyWalden [00:52:54]: It’ll never error.Cole [00:52:54]: It doesn’t want the code to fail. And so it Even when it knows it has the attribute, it’ll call getattr on a, and for a lot of my clients who have moved towards more autonomous coding, we’ve put that in as a lint rule That if you do getattr, your pull request is going to fail.Slop Signatures: Comments, Backwards Compatibility, and TypesSwyx [00:53:12]: Ooh, this is a fun topic. Can you tell me more about this? What else is a sign of AI coding that you have to put guards in?Walden [00:53:21]: So we were talking just before this about Opus 4.7. One of the things this new model likes to do is it writes lots of comments. Not like, it’ll, comment every line, but it’ll write, paragraph, PRDs, on top of every function. But I will say, to its credit, these aren’t slop, descriptions like they were before. “Oh, here’s what this function does.” It’s like, “Oh, here’s actually the reasoning and why we chose this approach and what the alternatives were and why we shouldn’t do those alternatives.” Still too much information, but I wonder if this actually might be directionally correct if you want systems that can self-maintain themselves in the long run.Swyx [00:54:04]: Oh, they write the specs inline.Walden [00:54:05]: Have all the context In the code as well. Yeah.Swyx [00:54:07]: So you approve?Walden [00:54:09]: I But at the same time, it’s this tricky problem. Maybe we’ll just give our users, a setting or something, for, how verbose you want it to be. I haven’t loved it. Honestly, I just I like the comment, but please, get rid of it. But I could, I could see a world where maybe something of the sort becomes reality. I don’t know If you guys know about GitAI. SoSwyx [00:54:32]: We’ve talked about it, yeah.Walden [00:54:33]: GitAI, the idea behind it isSwyx [00:54:34]: I’ll bring it upWalden [00:54:35]: That if you run an agent, the actual prompts you send to the agent should be stored alongside the code inside the Git metadata so that future agents can reference it, maybe code review bots can reference it. And it’s ideal world where, your context for why decisions were made constantly lives aside, beside your code. And so it’s, maybe a more hidden version of this, write massive PRDs for every comment approach.Swyx [00:55:01]: I’m waiting for the real bull case where we just get rid of Git altogether. We’re not I’m not, I’m not there yet, but I’m looking for it because that would be a big shift.Cole [00:55:11]: On the topic of, visible slop, a pattern that I see a lot of across GPT models specifically is backwards compatibility, at all costsCole [00:55:21]: Where it’s doing these weird import exports so that it doesn’t have to modify, the names of where the modules were. And I’ve seen Claude 4.6 starting to do this as well.Cole [00:55:33]: And again, I think it is this, reward hacking behavior where it doesn’t want failure to occur, and you can address that through, Semgrep or other tools where that behavior is pretty easy to identify. But it’s something that you only learn through the trade of just seeing code patterns. Untyped tuples are a really big problem of just, again, just throw any in there, dict string any. And again, you can address those through linting.Local Testing, Mock Servers, and AI-Ready CodebasesSwyx [00:56:01]: Awesome. Yeah. Any other So, linting, any other tools? Devin Review, of course. Not so, not so free now, but still use it.Walden [00:56:10]: Well, the one thing that I think we try to recommend teams as they use more AI agents, it goes back to this, local testing thing. In the end of the day, you want your agent to be able to do the full thing, not just write the code, but actually run it and test it. And a lot of code bases were not necessarily built for this from the start. For example, you probably do want a local DB setup, a local Docker Compose and Postgres in order to have it so that you don’t need to give your agent any crazy product credentials to actually run and test its code. We’ve also internally done a big shift to make a lot of our core, components of code testable as purely local dev without needing to actually, integrate with, any live services for this reason. And honestly, the older the company, the more you have to change to shift in this direction. But you can use AI to help you perform this migration nowadays.Swyx [00:57:02]: The older, the older the company, the more you have to change in order to do local dev?Walden [00:57:05]: I think so.Swyx [00:57:06]: Or am I misunderstanding? So you’re sayingWalden [00:57:08]: Or often timesSwyx [00:57:08]: Most people just build with full integration to all their stuff, and there’s no code path to switch it to local.Walden [00:57:14]: Especially in, when there’s, lots of different services and you have, microservice architecture, making that shift, the larger the code base, the harder it is. I guess if you did build it correctly from the very start, I think it’d be possible. But also, a lot There are a lot of companies in the world that got started before Docker was a thing, and so You’re forced to make a migration at some point.Swyx [00:57:35]: Well, Devin’s good, very good at making mock servers. Right? So, And no, the Well, one of the projects that I really want to It’s like, it’s like Little Snitch. I don’t know if you guys have heard of this.Cole [00:57:44]: I run Little Snitch on my computer.Swyx [00:57:46]: It’s just like There’s, a man in the middle, but it, shows you all the traffic going back and forth. But then from there you can reconstruct the server, right? And then, and then, create local mocks so you can local mock everything if you just observe traffic for a little bit.Cole [00:57:58]: That’s an interesting idea.Swyx [00:58:01]: cool. I don’t know if this will get anywhere, but I wanted to maybe talk a little bit about the CloudCode, leak because usually if I have an Anthropic person on, I can’t talk about the CloudCode leak. Did you guys learn anything from CloudCode? IWalden [00:58:19]: So if I sayCole [00:58:19]: This is the first time I’ve seen itWalden [00:58:19]: I was not that, interested in the Leak. We didn’t spend that much time on itWalden [00:58:24]: If I was to say, butSwyx [00:58:25]: I’m just, I’m just, fishing forCole [00:58:28]: no, I didn’t really,Cole [00:58:29]: Research too much into it.Windsurf, Local Agents, and Cloud AgentsSwyx [00:58:30]: Fair enough. Okay, one more last thing before we go. Windsurf 2.0, you guys shipped another thing. So The meta context is you use background agents enough, sometimes you’re going to want to bring them to foreground. And that little, hands-off from local to cloud is hard to work on. And then And Devin has Or Cognition has just done it.Walden [00:58:50]: I think for me the biggest, gap this is trying to close is, again, how do you make the testing process as fast as possible? When it can test on its own and send you a video, it’s freaking magical. Sometimes there are just really difficult things you can that you do just need to, pull down locally. And we just want Windsurf to just be your, local command center of all your agents, your background ones, your local ones, and you can imagine, “Oh, okay, this agent needs me to review something. I’ll pull that down, move my other agents to the background, go test it. Okay, boom, done. On to the next one,” right? You have some issue you got to fix in the background, just click, approve. Okay, set up, start a background agent to go fix it. I’d love a world where I don’t have to leave this window. Then maybe the other window I got to figure out how to stop spending so much time into Slack, but maybe, someday We’ll want to get those tools all.Swyx [00:59:38]: And does that require the binaries to be exactly the same for local versus cloud?Walden [00:59:46]: So the funny thing here is that the behavior between local agents and cloud agents, I think is actually a bit different In their ideal state. I think local agents, you want them to be a bit more fast and let the user make the call on things. Actually don’t try to autonomously go test things. The background agent mode where you go start it off, I think the agent should just assume the next message I send a user should just have everything that the user needs from me and not run and stop Keep running and don’t stop until you have the testing Until you have full report.Swyx [01:00:19]: So that’s a, that’s just a slightly different prompt.Walden [01:00:20]: But for many reasons, because of all the work we do to make sure that Devin works with different Git providers, that it works with different, OS’s and VM’s, we want as much of that logic to be shared as possible. So for our own practical purposes, we try to share as much of it as possible.Swyx [01:00:36]: Yeah. I mean, I can’t imagine how much work it is to, transition back and forth, so congrats on shipping this.Swyx [01:00:45]: okay. Anything else that we should cover before we, wrap? Just whatever you guys were talking about in your lunch.Walden [01:00:52]: maybe, use cases. What are your, do you find to be, the biggest things that your clients are trying to do with their cloud agents today?Cole [01:00:59]: Do you want to just ask it again so we can get, a clean cut?Swyx [01:01:02]: Because he was drinking his water. Yeah.Walden [01:01:04]: The thing I wanted to talk about was use cases. What do you think are the main things that your clients come to you today about, “Hey, this is why we want to go set up cloud agents”?Cole [01:01:15]: I think the easiest and most common use case I see across everyone is SRE use cases. The idea that whether we have our alerts in Slack or Datadog or wherever they’re going, we want the agent to be the first responder on that. And that doesn’t necessarily mean that the agent is actually resolving the issue, but just being able to collect that context ahead of time is huge. Because again, that agent is integrated into the production logs, the database. It has full visibility, and over time, playbooks as well for how to address certain issues. And so that’s a huge win for teams because instantly you can have a full trajectory of what is going on within the system, and oftentimes actually a pull request directly from that, which is a pretty neat flow to actually experience of, error pull request done. OpenInspect does support a trigger for that as well, so that could happen completely autonomously.Swyx [01:02:09]: From Datadog specifically, or justUse Cases: PMs, Support, Security, and SRECole [01:02:11]: it supports Sentry, it supports a generic webhook, and if someone wants to add Datadog, they can. The other use cases that I see, are for non-builder use cases, whether that’s the PM or the marketing team. I’m seeing a lot of, teams where the idea of who’s actually contributing code is starting to change. And in a lot of cases, the PM, if there’s just a quick bug fix, the PM is not creating an issue anymore. The PM is just prompting through Slack, and the pull request is then being created. And so I think that’s a huge win. I think that trend will continue, where we’re seeing, code modifications happening outside of engineering. The last common use case that I see is customer support. And so where they’re experiencing an issue with a customer, they’re not entirely sure why this behavior is happening. Previously that world was, “Hey, there’s a bug when they tried to use this feature. We don’t know what’s going on.” Well, they’re now tagging that in Slack. Again, that entire full context is ready. They can then just tag in engineering and have a complete understanding of that issue and completely bypass the previous pain points of like, “Oh, can you get more information from them?”Walden [01:03:24]: The only things I’d add on top of that I think I’ve seen is, continual security scanning Continual security review Is a very big one as well. The SRE use case, internally we think about it as auto triage Because we just want every message that comes in, and that’s an alert, that’s a bug report, to have Devin just start triaging it before anything else. And we’ve leaned into this use case so much though that we’ve basically tried to make it so that you don’t ever have to leave Slack to interact with this. So again, making the interactions with Devin super fluid from the moment the report comes in to it responds to a report and be able to ask it questions right there with full code-based context about all the issues. Very related to customer support as well, I think one thing that we found is CLIs can sometimes be, very difficult for people who aren’t technical to go and use. But an online chat interface that anyone can go and ask questions and is super intuitive and doesn’t assume you have any technical knowledge but does have access to all parts of your code base, super useful For support, for salespeople, anyone who might need to have their questions answered about the code base. So yeah, great callout.Swyx [01:04:32]: This might potentially be, a very expensive, use case. Is there like a rule, sense, a rule of thumb on, how much people should spend on this? ‘Cause, you have unlimited budget, but not other people don’t,? I don’t know if this is an answerable question because obviously it depends on, a lot of factors. But I guess, likeCole [01:04:51]: I think it depends really on, how people are using it. I think If people are using it responsibly and they’re getting value from it, then, you can kinda determine the budget. Common numbers that I hear are anywhere from 1,000 an engineer up to 5,000 an engineer. I have not heard anywhere in the realm of, 50,000 an engineer for a frame of reference.Model Costs, Smart Routing, and Frontier TradeoffsSwyx [01:05:12]: We’ll get there.Walden [01:05:13]: I’ve seen, I’ve seen numbers go that high for sure. I think that this is also I think going to be a big theme of the coming year, is we’re going to see very expensive, very smart frontier models, And we’re also going to see people who say, “ what? I don’t need the frontier anymore for a lot of the work I do,” because some frontier models actually are good enough For a lot of the work.Swyx [01:05:36]: Also shout-out you pioneered Smartfind Which is a mix.Walden [01:05:39]: I’m really interested in a world where you basically have hybrid frontier and subfrontier systems Where you use the subfrontier part to be really fast, really efficient, and call out to the frontier part of the system so that you can still get frontier performance for the most part.Swyx [01:05:54]: I’m trying to search, but Twitter search is, completely broken. I, it’s, the from field is just completely gone. It’s very sad, Because I really want toWalden [01:06:04]: No worries. I might have to make a new post at some point about the return of Smartfind.Swyx [01:06:10]: Anthropic has now officially adopted it. Okay, cool. I think that’s it. It’s really great discussion and good, great having you guys on. Background agents are a thing now, and everyone’s building them. We, but we talked a lot about, the production concerns and like, well, why you would want to offer one architecture over the other. Yeah, lots to look forward to.Walden [01:06:35]: There’s a real zeitgeist in the space right now I think, for companies to want to turn themselves into these autonomous coding factories. And yeah, we’re doing a lot to try to support that. And so, any listeners are welcome to come chat to us about that, whether using Devin or working with us.Wrap-Up: Hiring, Consulting, and Agent AdoptionSwyx [01:06:51]: Hiring?Swyx [01:06:53]: what, specifically, just like give like one profile that’s, very interesting.Walden [01:06:58]: I think people underestimate the role of, really high-taste product engineers In this space right now.Swyx [01:07:05]: And the test is, what have you shipped end to end that is A tasteful product.Walden [01:07:10]: If you’ve shipped stuff that you think is tasteful and you’re, and you’re proud of, you should, you should come talk to us.Cole [01:07:15]: For me, any businesses that are looking to further their engineering org, a lot of the consulting I do is around that. Teams who are maybe starting their AI journey, whether that’s with Cursor or Claude Code, but they’re looking for someone to help navigate them through the state-of-the-art and beyond just that initial deployment. As mentioned, there’s a lot of lift from you’ve deployed the background agent to how do we actually get this fully integrated into the company and really realizing the true value of that.Swyx [01:07:45]: Okay. Well, thanks you guys for coming on.Walden [01:07:47]: Thanks for having us. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• 🔬ESM: The Bitter Lesson is Coming for Proteins - Alex Rives, BioHub 27.05.2026 1h 10min

  Editor’s note: In our first BioHub pod with Priscilla and Mark they discussed their acquisition of EvoScale, led by Alex Rives, who is now Head of Science at BioHub. With ESM-1 they trained language models on millions of protein sequences drawn from across life, with a simple “next token” objective: predict the amino acids that have been randomly masked out, based on the context of the rest of the sequence. But they soon found that these models also learned biological structure and function, including properties the model had never been explicitly shown AND that this ability scales predictably with compute, leading to ESM2 and ESM3.Today, Alex announced ESMFold 2, an open scientific engine to power prediction, design, and discovery across protein biology.Building on Cryo-EM data (discussed in the CZI pod), ESMFold2 reports state of the art performance on protein interactions, especially antibodies, a critical modality for therapeutics, and evidence that inference time scaling is also working across five targets in cancer and immunology.In a nod to that other famous AI x protein folding project, they are also releasing an atlas of 6.8 billion proteins, and 1.1 billion predicted structures, which you can play around with on their website. We are honored to work with them for this huge release!One of the refrains we’ve heard on the Science pod has been that protein folding, materials design, cellular biology, etc. are very different problems from Language Modeling. They definitely are. Yet Alex Rives and the ESM team at BioHub just released a preprint and model, demonstrating that vanilla BERT-like transformer models trained on sufficiently large and diverse data sets can beat specialized models like AlphaFold3 on some of the hardest protein-related problems. Andrew White had a great segment in our first LS-Science episode that explained how mind blowing AlphaFold2 was when it was released in 2020: it suddenly solved problems on a GPU on your desktop that DESRes had built custom-ASIC supercomputer clusters to solve. John Jumper and Demmis Hassabis received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for this work.AlphaFold2 took advantage of an very clever observation: if multiple species co-evolve pairs of mutations, this implies that the mutations correspond to parts of the protein that are close in 3d space. This is usually shorthanded as MSAs (multi-sequence alignments), and is the key insight which makes AlphaFold2 so effective.Like other inductive biases, however, it hurts generalization.Scale-pilled before it was coolIf you take a look at the timeline for scaling laws for LLMs and release of structure prediction models, the ESM team notably doubled down on their MSAs-be-damned approach after AlphaFold2 released. This obviously requires a great deal of belief in the scale hypothesis.Why the conviction?ESM developed at a time when many of the scaling laws and the “Bitter Lesson” were proving increasingly correct. AlphaFold2’s wild success must have been both exciting and bitterly disappointing. But using MSAs mean that the model is is dependent on training data that contains MSAs in order to be accurate in a given domain. For things like antibodies that don’t have MSAs to train on, AlphaFold tends to do poorly.ESM takes a different approach: learn the relationship between different proteins by unsupervised training on as much diversity as you can find (sound familiar?) and then correlate that back to structures know from the Protein Data Bank (PDB) and other sources. In other words, a World Model.World Model for proteins“World Model” is a hype term that I define like this:Use unsupervised training to learn abstract patterns from the data:* The abstraction should be semantic - novel constructions represent things that obey the rules of the real world* The abstraction should be compositional - recombining different patterns leads to novel and often valid constructions* The abstraction should support generalization - it predicts things in the real world it wasn’t trained on Once you have a world model, you can attach “heads” to it for downstream tasks: predict properties of a protein, decompose its functional features, or search the representation for proteins that meet design criteria. The two big models BioHub just released under MIT license map directly onto this:* World model → ESMC (a model trained on 2.8 billion sequences)* Structure-prediction head → ESMFold2One of the interesting ways the world model can “predict things” is to generate proteins sequences and then measure the predicted properties, such as binding affinity, in the lab. Alex talks in the episode about validating some of the harder molecules they predicted in the wet-lab. Very cool!Another way is to use mech-interp techniques such as Sparse Auto Encoders (SAEs) to extract semantic features from your model, and then find novel features that predict unknown biology. I won’t spoil this part for you: it was one of the highlights of the episode for me!A cell is a computerWe have all heard that genes are like computer programs, but usually the analogy fizzles after that. Of course genes are transcribed into RNA and RNA is translated into proteins, so genes are programs for building proteins, but that carries the analogy only to “binary digits are programs.” Here’s a better analogy: you can think of the cell nucleus as a storage device / storage controller, the ribosome as a JIT-compiler and runtime, and the semantic features that we learn from our world model via SAEs as functions, proteins as processes that interact together in workflows (signalling pathways) to produce behaviors and outputs (phenotypes). Like functions, the SAE features have a hierarchical composition from local, secondary and tertiary structures (mimicing protein structure), but also motifs that are conceptual, such as membrane integrations, disordered regions and disulfide bonds. As we learn to compose these features we into novel protein designs, we move further towards programmable biology. Alex goes into much more detail about this in the episode, as well as:* Principles for new data collection* BioHub’s vision* Modeling the cellEnjoy!Full Video podcastplease like and subscribe!* X: https://x.com/alexrives* LinkedIn: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Giving Agents Computers — Ivan Burazin, Daytona 21.05.2026 1h 10min

  Take the 2026 AI Engineering Survey and get >$2k in credits and AIE WF tickets!On the product side, everyone is getting Computer - Perplexity, Manus, Cursor, and so on. Meanwhile on the research side, agentic evals like TerminalBench and GDPVal are also assuming computer (Harbor). On both ends, the consolidating LLM OS stack has become a standard toolkit, and Daytona is one of a small set of AI Infra companies that are booming because of it.“The end of localhost” has been Ivan Burazin’s obsession for more than a decade.Something that is all too familiar…Long before agents became the default way people talked about software development, Ivan was already chasing the idea that development should not depend on a fragile local machine. CodeAnywhere, one of the first browser-based IDEs, was an early attempt at that future: move the development environment into the cloud, make setup reproducible, and free developers from the endless “works on my machine” tax.The thesis was directionally right, but the market wasn’t ready yet.However, agents changed that. They do not care about a laptop, desk setup, or favorite editor. They need a computer they can access through an API: something stateful enough to keep working, fast enough to spin up instantly, flexible enough to resize, isolated enough to be safe, and composable enough to run the messy real-world workflows that real software engineering actually requires.Daytona isn’t just selling “sandboxes” in the narrow code-execution sense. It is the latest version of Ivan’s original localhost thesis.In this episode, Daytona’s CEO joins swyx to explain why AI agents need more than code execution boxes: they need composable computers, stateful sandboxes, instant startup, dynamic resources, and infrastructure that can survive workloads going from zero to 100,000 CPUs.We go deep on the new agent compute market: Daytona’s hard pivot from human dev environments to AI sandboxes, the New Year’s Eve MVP that customers begged for, why Daytona runs on bare metal with its own scheduler, how one customer runs almost 850,000 sandboxes a day, and why RL/eval workloads went from 0% to roughly 50% of usage in just months. Ivan also explains why agents need Windows and macOS machines, why CLI may matter more than MCP, why Kubernetes is painful for this workload, and why the future AI cloud may look more like Stripe than AWS.We discuss:* How Daytona grew out of CodeAnywhere, Shift, and the “end of localhost” thesis* Why Daytona pivoted from human dev environments to AI sandboxes* Why agents need composable computers instead of disposable code execution boxes* The New Year’s Eve MVP that customers chased API keys for* Why Daytona chose bare metal, stateful snapshots, and its own scheduler* How Daytona spins up one sandbox in ~60ms and 50,000 sandboxes in ~75 seconds* Why Daytona’s biggest customer runs ~850,000 sandboxes a day* How RL/eval workloads create zero-to-100,000 CPU spikes* Why RL workloads went from 0% to roughly 50% of Daytona usage* Why customers compare Daytona against EKS/GKS and say they’re “never going back”* Why every AI agent may need a computer, including Windows and macOS environments* The Apple licensing constraints that make macOS sandboxes hard* Why CLI gives agents more power than MCP* How open source helps agents integrate Daytona* Why agent-generated PRs may break today’s CI/CD assumptions* Why AI SaaS companies reselling tokens may face a cold shower* Why the AI cloud may look more like Stripe than AWSIvan Burazin* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivanburazin* X: https://x.com/ivanburazinDaytona* Website: https://www.daytona.io* X: https://x.com/daytonaioTimestamps* 00:00:00 Hook* 00:01:12 Introduction* 00:03:15 CodeAnywhere, Shift, and the end of localhost* 00:05:58 What Daytona is: composable computers for AI agents* 00:08:07 The pivot from dev environments to AI sandboxes* 00:10:17 The New Year’s Eve MVP and customers begging for API keys* 00:12:56 Bare metal, stateful sandboxes, and Daytona’s scheduler* 00:17:28 60ms startup, 50,000 sandboxes, and 850K daily runs* 00:21:53 Spiky RL/eval workloads and the new agent infra problem* 00:28:12 RL workloads, Kubernetes pain, and dynamic resizing* 00:33:31 Why every AI agent needs a computer* 00:38:48 macOS sandboxes and Apple’s licensing problem* 00:44:28 Why CLI may matter more than MCP* 00:48:11 Open source, GitHub stars, and agent integration* 00:53:11 Git, CI/CD, and agent collaboration bottlenecks* 00:58:15 Founder life and building a 25-person infra company* 01:02:44 AI SaaS, token resale, and API-first business models* 01:06:10 GPU sandboxes, data centers, and compute growth* 01:09:48 Why the AI cloud may look more like Stripe than AWS* 01:11:26 Closing thoughtsTranscriptIntroduction: Daytona, CodeAnywhere, and the End of LocalhostSwyx [00:00:02]: Okay, we’re in the studio with Ivan Burazin, CEO of Daytona. Welcome.Ivan [00:00:07]: Thanks for having me, man.Swyx [00:00:08]: Ivan, you and I go back.Ivan [00:00:10]: Way back.Swyx [00:00:11]: How I don’t even know how, you found, did you reach out or, for Shift.Ivan [00:00:17]: I reached out to you. The reason was you - we were just - we were thinking about I was one of the co-founders of CodeAnywhere, the first browser-based IDE, and so we were thinking a long time of, localhost should die. And you had this article.Swyx [00:00:29]: End of localhost.Ivan [00:00:30]: Then I reached out to you because of that, and then we talked, and I was actually at a different job and learning about I was the head of, developer experience, and you were quite well-versed in that, and I actually reached out to you, among other people, how do we go about that? What are the key things and whatnot at this point in time? And you were nice enough to take the call, and I remember I was late on your call with you.Swyx [00:00:51]: I don’t remember.Ivan [00:00:52]: I remember because I was with my then I’m thinking of a girlfriend or wife at that point in time, I’m not sure. It’s the same person, so that’s great, and I was late ‘cause we were, in, Italy on, vacation, and then I was late for something. I felt so bad, and you were so nice to be, good about.Swyx [00:01:10]: The reason I’m nice is because I’m also late to other people, so it’s like, who’s, who’s without sin here, yeah, so I have to, for those who don’t know, InfoBip Shift, there’s this whole thing that, you did in the past, and, and that was basically one of the inspirations for me starting AI Engineer, which is like, I have to thank you for giving me that push to be like, “Oh, you can, you can build and sell conferences?”Ivan [00:01:34]: I remember you asked you asked me at the beginning to give me advisory shares, and I was so focused on what we were doing, I said no, and I should’ve took the advisory shares. So I’m sorry, dude. But anyway.Swyx [00:01:43]: We’re not, we’re not venture backed.Ivan [00:01:44]: No, it doesn’t matter.Swyx [00:01:45]: It’s Yeah, anyway, so I think what’s impressive about you is that CodeAnywhere is the thing that you’ve been trying to build, and, you kind of put it on hold and then came back after InfoBip. Just give us the story, do you - the story and the origin story, going into Daytona.From CodeAnywhere and Shift to DaytonaIvan [00:02:05]: Sure. Like, really way back, me and my co-founder have been together. I say this, I’ve said this multiple times, it’s like we were married and divorced and married. Some people actually ask me is my co-founder my partner. they thought it literally. It’s not literally, but we have done multiple companies together, and to your point, we had this shift where we went from the CodeAnywhere to the conference called Shift, and then back to, Daytona. We originally started stacking servers, doing like virtualization in the early 2000s and, routers and doing basically all these things, at a foundational level, and that was a services company which we sold to focus on what my co-founder actually invented, which was the very first browser-based IDE, right, I say the first. Before us was actually Heroku. They did it for a very short time until they became Heroku. But outside of them, we were the only one, and it was called.Swyx [00:02:55]: There was Cloud9.Ivan [00:02:57]: Cloud9 came out slightly after us. There was Replit, which came out when we stopped doing it, Replit came out, and they have been successful since then, which is great. There was Nitrous.io. There was quite a few that existed at the time, but it was like too early. But the interesting part is that we, at that point in time, because there was no VS Code, there was no Kubernetes, and Docker had just started when we Or I’m not sure if it was even public at that point in time. And so we had to build everything to the whole stack ourselves and that was the key learning that we brought into and that we’ve been using in Daytona today. So it was super early. There’s about 3 million people used CodeAnywhere. It was slightly, it was angel-backed more than venture-backed. We ended up paying everyone back because it didn’t have that sort of scale. But, three years ago, we started something similar with Daytona, which is not what we are today, but it was automating dev environments for human engineers, the basically the underlying stack of CodeAnywhere. And then we did a hard pivot last January to sandboxes. And so here we are.Swyx [00:04:01]: Historic pivot, yeah, and, it’s one of those things where, I had independently invested in CodeAnywhere, but also in E2B, and then both of you pivoted into the same thing, and I’m like, “F**k.”Ivan [00:04:12]: You invested, you invested in Daytona. You invested in Daytona. But you were the first If we had not got your check, we wouldn’t have done it.Swyx [00:04:18]: No way.Ivan [00:04:19]: No, it was like, “We have to get him on board first,” and you were that kicker that we, that got us off the ground.Swyx [00:04:23]: No, because you were putting me on your pitch deck, man. I was like, “Man, this is like a good trip if I don’t invest.”Ivan [00:04:29]: That’s because it was your quote. It’s like we.Swyx [00:04:30]: Yeah. It’s the end of localhost.Ivan [00:04:31]: Did a bunch of research about end of localhost and who was interested in that,.Swyx [00:04:34]: No, that’s like, I put, I wrote that blog post, and every single company in that field reached out to me, and then every VC who was receiving those pitches then also had to call me and, talk it, talk through it with me.Ivan [00:04:47]: It’s finally happening though.Swyx [00:04:48]: It was really super interesting.Ivan [00:04:48]: It’s finally happening.Swyx [00:04:49]: It’s finally happening.Ivan [00:04:49]: Yeah, it’s finally.Swyx [00:04:49]: It’s finally happening, with maybe sort of non-human users. Yeah, so what is Daytona today? Let’s get like a quick description. I’m wearing the shirt.What Daytona Is Today: Composable Computers for AI AgentsIvan [00:04:58]: You’re wearing the shirt. Yes,.Swyx [00:04:59]: It says, I think your branding is very good. Like, it’s very consistent. It runs AI code. Like, it cannot be simpler.Ivan [00:05:05]: Exactly, but we’re gonna probably have to change that.Swyx [00:05:07]: Oh, s**t.Ivan [00:05:07]: It’s also a subset of what we do. Unfortunately, we really love this, Run AI Code is super simple. People interpret it different ways. I think we’ve given out 5,000, 6,000 of these shirts. People wear them with pride because it doesn’t really market about us.Swyx [00:05:21]: Yeah, Daytona’s on the back.Ivan [00:05:22]: It markets the back. It markets to the person itself, so I think we did a really good job on that one. But it is also a subset of what we do, because people, when they think about Run AI Code, they just think about these small, let’s call it isolates, code execution boxes that, you send some code, you get an output. Whereas what Daytona is today is essentially composable computers for AI agents. It is, the market calls them sandboxes which can be misleading.Swyx [00:05:44]: All these things. All these things on.Ivan [00:05:45]: Yeah, exactly, ‘cause it can be misleading ‘cause people usually think about sandboxes as a demo or a test environment versus a production-grade environment. But what Daytona does, if you think of the laptop that you have in front of you or the computer that’s over there, or, my wife is an architect, so she has like a Windows with a 3D graphics card inside to do 3D rendering. Like, as humans, we have different computers or different compositions of computers. And our belief is strongly that agents today and going forward will need all these different compositions of computers to do different types of tasks. And so we offer that basically through an API.Swyx [00:06:19]: Yeah, to give people - I’m trying to sort of front-load all the aha moments or the wow moments so that people can, stay engaged and click like and subscribe. the market is exploding, right? Like, you have been reporting 74% month-on-month growth, and it also, it’s just been growing for a while. Like, it’s been going like this. And every single - It’s not just you guys. It’s every single.Ivan [00:06:41]: Everyone, yeah.Swyx [00:06:42]: Sort of, compute provider. I don’t know if you agree with me saying compute provider or not.Ivan [00:06:48]: It’s fine.Swyx [00:06:48]: Yeah. So like organically PLG-driven growth, but also enterprise is doing super well, I think I wanna rewind to January of last year when you did the pivot. Like, so you obviously called this market early, and you were positioned for it, and you are now one of the market leaders. But what was the insight that made you do the pivot?The Pivot: From Human Dev Environments to Agent SandboxesIvan [00:07:06]: The insight that made us do this pivot is the quarter before that, so end of 2024, when we had - Basically, we did a demo with - I don’t I think we discussed this as well, Devin was not public. You actually gave me access to Devin at that time. So Devin.Swyx [00:07:25]: I did?Ivan [00:07:26]: Yeah, you gave me access.Swyx [00:07:26]: I don’t think I was supposed.Ivan [00:07:27]: Yeah, exactly.Swyx [00:07:28]: Yeah, I.Ivan [00:07:28]: So it doesn’t matter. You.Swyx [00:07:29]: Yeah. I gave like three friends access.Ivan [00:07:31]: Yeah, or it was a call and you showed it to me. It doesn’t matter. but OpenDevin was available, which is now called OpenHands. And so we’re like, “Oh, this seems to be a thing. This is not public. Let’s take our for human automation of dev environments and take, OpenDevin and launch that as a SaaS.” And we did that. Not very many people signed up and used it, but a lot of people reached out that were building agents, and they were like, “Hey, my agent needs a compute sandbox runtime,” whatever you wanna call it. I forgot what it was called at that point. And then we were like, “Oh, amazing. This is a new market. Here is our infrastructure. Here’s our product, and go.” And what we found really fast, soon, was that people did not like what we had built. It didn’t work. And I remember talking to people at the beginning when we’re doing this, the sandbox we’re building for agents. People were like, “Oh, why is it different? It’s the same thing. We have like EC2, we have VMs, we have all these things.” But we saw that everyone we gave it to, it was like 20, 30 people, they all said, “No.” Like, “This is not what we need. This sort of breaks.” And basically, me and my co-founder not knowing a lot about - ‘cause we’re infra people. We’re not AI people. So I basically took it upon myself to like watch every single podcast that exists, including all of, all of these and all that, and sort of get up to date, read all the blogs, like get, understand what’s going on.Swyx [00:08:45]: Do you wanna shout out who else was useful, just in case people are also looking.Ivan [00:08:49]: Generally we -, I looked at There’s a few of podcast, different segments and different types. So there’s you guys, No Priors, Bill Gurley’s was great while.Swyx [00:09:04]: VG2, yeah.Ivan [00:09:05]: Yeah, while it was around. So there’s a few. 20VC is interesting from a different dynamic, and some are different dynamic. But there was, also Red Points.Swyx [00:09:14]: We’re not really about the compute market.Ivan [00:09:15]: It was also already - Sorry?Swyx [00:09:16]: You’re, you want - You’re looking at the agent infra market.Ivan [00:09:19]: I was looking at the agent market and the AI market in general and sort of understanding who are the players, what the perception, and how that goes. And like obviously you complement this with like going to conferences, going to events, going to meetups, reading white papers, like doing all the things that you have to do to understand what’s happening. And so when we figured, when we sort of had an idea of what we had to build, literally over the New Year’s Eve, literally on New Year’s Eve, I half vibe coded the first MVP, first minimal viable product of what Daytona is today. And I went to sleep at like 3:00 AM or something like that. I was doing - I just put my like baby daughter and wife to sleep and, Happy New Year’s, and go back to just, doing this. And I sent it to my co-founder, my CTO, and he saw it in the morning. He’s like, “This is absolute garbage.” “Do not show this to anybody at all, but the idea is good.” And so he took two weeks, and he rebuilt it.Swyx [00:10:09]: Did it like look like that? Listen, I - It was rough idea.Ivan [00:10:12]: Oh, not even, not even close. Like it was it was way worse. But it was like a very - It was a simplistic view of what it should be. Like, it worked, but it was not ideal. And so he went, we went down the whole, which is his job as CTO, to go, and he came back with this version. We then called all the people that had said like, “This is garbage,” a quarter ago. And we set up these calls, and we gave it to - We just demoed it to everyone. And all the calls went long, every single one. They were 15-minute calls, and they all went to like 25, 30 minutes or whatnot. And everyone said, “We need, we want access.” There was no login, just an API key, ‘cause it was just a beta or an alpha. And they said, “Oh, we want access.” And we’re like, “Sure, yeah. Okay, thank you very much.” But after like the next day, if we’d not send it, every single one, like every call that we did, everyone came back, “Where is my API key?” Like everyone wanted it. We’re like, “S**t.” Like this is it. Like I’ve never felt So one, the understanding to your point was like most people thought it was the same infrastructure for humans and agents. We understood a quarter ago it’s not. We just didn’t know what was the right primitive. And then when we came, and we can talk about what that is, and we gave it to these people, I’ve never seen, I’ve never experienced - I’ve done multiple companies in my life. I’ve never experienced this, that people literally call you if you do not give them access. Like they want access right now. And so it’s like, okay, they don’t want this. the thing that they want doesn’t seem to exist, or they have not found it, and they really want what we want. And then when we understood that we’re onto something, and then when you think about the size of the market, like the market for human engineers and enterprise is a very large market, so think GitLab or whatnot. But the market for every single agent that will exist ever in the future is just like, what is that market? How big is that? And we’re like, “We are all in on this.” And so that is where we made sort of the cut between the old product and the new one.Bare Metal, Stateful Sandboxes, and the Lambda + EC2 ModelSwyx [00:12:02]: Yeah. But it wasn’t composable at the time?Ivan [00:12:05]: It was very - It was basically just a Linux box that you could change, that you could define number of CPUs, disk, and RAM. Like that is what you could do, but you couldn’t have multiple operating systems, you couldn’t resize it on the fly, you couldn’t add a GPU, you couldn’t do like all the things. It was just the, just the first sort of variation of that, yeah.Swyx [00:12:22]: Was it bare metal from the start?Ivan [00:12:24]: It was bare metal from the start. And so the interesting thing that we thought about right away, so our.Swyx [00:12:29]: Which, give people the background, what is the normal path?Ivan [00:12:32]: Yeah, so, basically most providers run this on top of VMs. And also.Swyx [00:12:37]: Firecracker.Ivan [00:12:38]: Yeah, they run on Firecracker and VM. And so we also fire - We can get - We have multiple isolation layers and we can do that. But the common way to do it is that they, one, that the state of the machine, or the hard disk is not part of the sandbox itself. And the other thing is they’re not meant to last forever. So most of them are preemptible, like they can There’s a time that they can live. And so our thought was when we were going into this is, agents will be like humans in the sense of you don’t want your laptop to be shut down until you’re done with work. Like, and you want to close the lid and open the lid, it’s the same state. So you - Agents would want that, like the pause and come back. They want those two things. But also agents really want speed, right? Can they get it? So when we thought about it’s like we need something insanely fast, how to make it fast, how to make it long-running, and stateful. And so those two things, it’s like combining a Lambda and an EC2, right? Those two things together. And so we didn’t have an idea how others did it, ‘cause we didn’t know too that there was a market around this. It was more like, okay, this is what we need, what they need. And we looked at Kubernetes, it wasn’t wasn’t good enough for that. We looked at Nomad, it didn’t enable that. And so our history in rewriting our own scheduler at CodeAnywhere is basically what my CTO came up with. Like, he’s like, “Oh, the learnings from there,” and he brought it. And the funny thing is, our third co-founder, when he saw it, he’s like, “Dude, what is this? This is like 2008.” Like, we went back in time, and he’s like, “Exactly.” And so the reason why Daytona is like super fast, and you see this on benchmarks, is we essentially, we run on bare metal. We have our own scheduler, we use the underlying, disk, CPU, and RAM of the underlying machine, which means your IOPS are insanely fast because there’s no, there’s no network between an EBS or something like that. But also the snapshot, the point in time, the templates, are also preloaded on the bare metal machines. So when you fire off a sandbox from a template or a snapshot, you’re essentially directed to the bare metal machine where that snapshot is based on that NVMe drive, and then it literally just turns on that machine, and it’s local. There’s no network latency, anything on there. And so that is sort of the specificities that we, when we’re thinking from first principles, what a computer would look like for an agent, that is what we came up with, and that’s what we created.Benchmarks, 60ms Startup, and 50,000 SandboxesSwyx [00:15:02]: Yeah. I should maybe, I don’t know if you endorse this, but there’s someone that does compute SDK, you guys do very well on there, with like the TTI, right? I. is this a, is this a is this a relevant benchmark for you guys? I don’t know.Ivan [00:15:16]: I don’t know, and it changes every day. So today RKL is.Swyx [00:15:18]: I don’t know what RKL is. Never heard of it.Ivan [00:15:20]: Yeah. RK, yeah, so it is there.Swyx [00:15:22]: You are, at least a third of the next tier of performance, and then, there’s a lot of other better-known names that are very slow to start.Ivan [00:15:31]: Yeah. We’ve been the number one by far for a long time, and now there’s different, there’s different definitions also of sandboxes, different isolation patterns, different other things. So RKL runs it literally on the S3, the data, so it’s very different, and they spin up a sandbox, spin up a container for that, so it’s a different type of thing. So the definition of a sandbox is something that we can all, we all need to get along with. But yeah, we’re insanely fast on getting these things, up and running. And so you can see even there that it’s a zero point 0.10 to 0.11, so.Swyx [00:16:03]: Close enough. Yeah. what else do you need, right?Ivan [00:16:05]: Yeah. So the benchmarks itself, so, in this, in I don’t think the benchmarks equate to market ownership or revenue or anything like that. and I’ve seen this with multiple benchmarks, not just in sandboxes, but in general benchmarks around.Swyx [00:16:20]: It’s table stakes. It’s just like.Ivan [00:16:21]: Exactly. But it doesn’t hurt.Swyx [00:16:22]: Just roughly check.Ivan [00:16:22]: Like you definitely have to be up there and you have to be competing so that people know that, oh, this is definitely one of the top. Because this is only one dimension of what customers look for. There’s other things like how many can you spin up consecutively? There’s a feature set, there’s support, there’s like all different things that people look at, but you definitely have to be there, on the benchmarks.Swyx [00:16:40]: How many people do people spin up consecutively?Ivan [00:16:43]: So we have.Swyx [00:16:43]: Or concurrently, is the Concurrency, right?Ivan [00:16:45]: There’s three metrics that we look at. And so one is like time to spin up one, and so our time to spin up one is 60 milliseconds with network latency. So request, spin up, reply, 60, the whole thing, 60 milliseconds. That is one. But if you wanna spin up 50,000 at once, we are now at about 75 seconds. So it takes about 75 seconds to spin up concurrently 50,000. Some others, there’s public data around this, like take 2,000 seconds, which is 30 minutes. Like there’s different variations of that. And then there is the so it is speed of one, speed of like multiple, and then how many can you consistently have up and running. And so we basically have right now no limit to how much we can add because we basically own our own metal. But the biggest customer of ours does like about 850,000 every single day is sort of where they’re, where they’re just shy of a million every single day that they’re running, we do have a request for half a million concurrent, which is literally half a million CPUs somewhere running. So that’s an interesting.Swyx [00:17:44]: They pay by like vCPU seconds.Ivan [00:17:47]: By seconds, yeah.Swyx [00:17:47]: Or whatever. Yeah. Okay, and so and then, and the other thing is, the sleeping and the resuming, ‘cause it’s all the stateful resumption of all these things, how, what kind of workload are people putting through this, right? Like how is it Do we measure by gigabytes in memory, gigabytes in storage? I don’t In like network attached storage. I, what are the costly ones of, out of all these features?Workload Economics: CPU, RAM, Network, and StorageIvan [00:18:15]: The most expensive thing are CPU.Swyx [00:18:18]: Okay. Yeah, of course.Ivan [00:18:18]: The second one, yeah Then it’s RAM, then it’s disk. We actually don’t charge.Swyx [00:18:22]: Which is snapshotting, right?Ivan [00:18:23]: No, it’s actually the, snapshotting’s part of it, but basically the size of your hard disk, of your machine. So do you have 10 gigabytes, do you have 20, do you have 50, do you have whatever? And then the transference of that. Right now, currently we don’t charge for, network at all at Polychron.Swyx [00:18:37]: Oh, you gotta, yeah, you gotta fix.Ivan [00:18:38]: Yeah. It is very much a it’s a larger and larger part of our bill, so we’re working around, that part there. Obviously, that is the least, expensive, so the hard disk is the least expensive, so it’s basically CPU, RAM, for us network, ‘cause we don’t charge the customer, and then hard disk, is how it’s split up. But there’s also different types of workloads, so we basically split it up into two types of workloads in Daytona. One is what we call background agents or long-running agents. and the other is, basically RLs and evals, which I put sort of together. And so they have very different patterns of usage, and if you look at the usage of a background And I’ll just name names of companies, not specifically.Background Agents vs. RL/Evals: Two Usage ShapesSwyx [00:19:21]: Yeah, open, all hands.Ivan [00:19:23]: Yeah. So like a background agent’s a Cognition, a Lovable, a like all these things are Harvey. These are all long-running, background agents. And so if you look at their usage patterns, their usage patterns are similar to human, which is like follow the sun. Basically, the usage patterns of that is like noon is probably the highest, and the midnight is the lowest, and then weekends are lower. weekday is higher.Swyx [00:19:42]: Yeah, that’s a fun question. How global is it? Is it very US-centric or?Ivan [00:19:46]: The US is a large part, but we have currently, we have Asia, Europe, and the US regions.Swyx [00:19:52]: So it’s quite global.Ivan [00:19:53]: Yeah, it’s quite global. We have it all over. It’s interesting that our I talked to you a bit about this. Our number one city by user.Swyx [00:20:01]: Hmm.Ivan [00:20:02]: Is Singapore.Swyx [00:20:04]: Oh, wow. Amazing.Ivan [00:20:05]: Which is an interesting one, right? Not by revenue, just by just like by individual head count.Swyx [00:20:09]: Really?Ivan [00:20:09]: Just like an interesting thing.Swyx [00:20:10]: Singapore is, Singapore is weirdly high in the adoption charts of AI for the population. It’s like an, seven, eight million population. And it’s like keeps showing up.Ivan [00:20:20]: No, it’s quite interesting. We were quite shocked, and I was like, “Oh, this is interesting.” And also one that’s up there.Swyx [00:20:24]: There’s a reason I’m doing AI using Singapore. it’s because I’m from there.Ivan [00:20:27]: We’re there. We’re gonna, we’re gonna be there as well. and it’s interesting that Japan is in the top or like Tokyo’s in the top, which is in all the tech cycles it has never been. It has never been, so it’s quite interesting that they’re.Swyx [00:20:39]: I think the Japanese just love AI. Yeah. It’s that, and then it’s Brazil. That’s it.Ivan [00:20:44]: Brazil has always been in.Swyx [00:20:45]: I think.Ivan [00:20:46]: Even when I look, if you look at like GitHub’s data and ask historically with CodeAnywhere, it was always like US, Western Europe, and then you’d have like India, Brazil, China, like that would be there. But like Singapore was not in, specifically Japan was never in sort of that top, that top.Swyx [00:21:01]: Yeah. Weird pockets.Ivan [00:21:01]: Weird. Yeah, so it’s very global.Swyx [00:21:02]: Okay, so actually that, but that’s helps you to distribute your load through, all time?Ivan [00:21:08]: The interesting thing is like we have those kind of loads, but if you look at the researcher loads, they’re quite different. So what they are is like if you give them concurrency of 10,000 or 50,000 or 100,000 CPUs at ARMb, when they fire off a run, it’s just 100%. And then it just runs, and then it stops. So it’s very, the usage pattern is squares basically, right? And it’s also not follow the sun, because people will fire it off at midnight before they go to sleep but then wake up and so it’s very unpredictable, so you don’t know where that is. So the shapes of the usage are quite different than we have had before. And also what’s interesting is when it’s sort of a follow the sun, even if you have a high growth company, you can sort of predict your usage patterns and have enough capacity for that, because it’s sort of, it grows in a, in a way you can project. When you have companies doing sort of like evals and RL, they’re super spiky. So they’re gonna come in, it’s like, “We’re gonna use nothing, then can we have 100,000?” Right? And then go back down. And then 100,000, go back down. So it’s very different, right? And.Swyx [00:22:09]: Do you want to lock them into commits so.Ivan [00:22:11]: Yeah, we do.Swyx [00:22:12]: Yeah, okay.Ivan [00:22:12]: We so we have to lock them into some sort of commits to have that capacity, because we have to have, basically we have to have the capacity for peak. Right? And so right now, Daytona’s mean utilization is 15%, 1-5.Swyx [00:22:25]: Oh my God.Ivan [00:22:26]: So it’s very low.Swyx [00:22:27]: Because it’s very spiky.Ivan [00:22:27]: It’s very spiky, but we get up to 90%. so we have these things. And so what we’re, what we’re looking at right now as a company is similar to Cloudflare where you can like geo move things around, but that works really well for basically the background agent where it’s follow the sun. But this, it’s not. Like it’s a very different shape. Obviously with scale you figure these things out, but that’s an interesting new problem that we have, as a compute provider in the agent space. And when we were doing the conference recently, and so we talked to like Nikita from Neon and.Swyx [00:22:57]: I should bring it up.Ivan [00:22:58]: Parag from Parallel and whatnot, everyone has the same problem. Whereas the usage is super spiky, and this is something that has not happened before, that you have these types of like it was always, it the amplitudes were not this high, right? So it’s quite interesting use case and problem solve.Compute Conference and Spiky Agent InfrastructureSwyx [00:23:12]: Yeah, I don’t know if we’re gonna bring this up again, but let’s just talk about the conference, you had like 1,000 something people at the Warriors game, at the Sorry, where is it? What’s.Ivan [00:23:22]: Chase Center.Swyx [00:23:23]: Chase Center.Ivan [00:23:23]: Chase Center.Swyx [00:23:24]: I went. It was, it was very impressive. Obviously, you can, how to throw a conference, what did you learn? you put, you pulled together all these impressive names.Ivan [00:23:33]: What I.Swyx [00:23:34]: What were you looking for?Ivan [00:23:35]: My thesis behind the Compute Conference was let’s bring together people that are building infrastructure for AI agents. Because when I think of what we’re building, it is the agent is the primary user, what are the ergonomics and usage patterns of agents, and so we can do that. And what I found, this was a theory, it wasn’t proven, is that we all have these problems, as I touched onto. And I was, as I was talking on stage, it was like we all have the same underlying infra problems, which is this spiky workloads, unpredictable workloads that we’ve never had before, in human, compute or human infrastructure. And it’s, again, it’s the same when I was talking to Parag or when I was talking.Swyx [00:24:20]: Lynn. Nikita.Ivan [00:24:21]: Lynn, Nikita. Lynn especially, I was talking to her the other day as well. Like the It is a very interesting type of problem to solve because I can touch on Cloudflare because there’s a lot of like talk about that recently as to how they solve that, which is they have a bunch of geos, and basically, as users work in different places, and depending on your tier, they can move you around the geos. And so that how, that’s how they get the higher utilization. But you can sort of predict these, and it’s If it’s something in You’ll rarely get a spike that is 10 orders of magnitude. Like you’ll get a like let’s say one of your customers has some like an exponential curve. What is that to I’m using Cloudflare as an example. 10%, 20%, whatever it is. I don’t, I don’t have this data, I’m just assessing. It’s surely not 10x, right? It’s surely not something there. And so how do you go out and solve this problem? And we’re all solving this in different ways. So we have.Swyx [00:25:11]: She also has the same thing.Ivan [00:25:12]: Yeah, I know specifically that like Neon had that issue as well. Like how are we solving these spiky loads and things like that ‘cause we talked about it. And so the interesting thing for me to actually internalize was, yes, everyone that’s building for agents first is going through this, and we’re all solving similar problems, which is quite.Swyx [00:25:28]: Let me let me double-click on this. Okay. So for example, Neon, I happen to know that they’re very sort of S3 oriented, right? so they’re just like fully bet on S3. And you get to benefit from S3’s distribution and infrastructure. So I would imagine that Neon doesn’t have to care, whereas Lynn maybe has to care a bit more because obviously she’s doing GPU inference. And, for listeners, we did an episode with her, one and a half years ago. And you have to care. But like, right?Ivan [00:25:54]: Parag cares for sure, and Nikita.Swyx [00:25:58]: And Parag is C of, Parallel.Ivan [00:25:59]: Parallel, yeah.Swyx [00:26:00]: Former CTO of Twitter.Ivan [00:26:01]: Twitter, yeah.Swyx [00:26:02]: They are the search.Ivan [00:26:03]: Yeah, they’re search, yeah.Swyx [00:26:03]: I You and I know but the listeners don’t know.Ivan [00:26:08]: Yeah, we can put it down in the screen, and so ‘cause we, when we were talking.Swyx [00:26:11]: I’ll put it up on the, on the screen.Ivan [00:26:12]: Yeah, right.Swyx [00:26:12]: People can look it up if they need.Ivan [00:26:14]: Look it up. And, yes, but they still have CPU and RAM, allocation that you have to have up and running. And so CPU and RAM, you have to allocate that and have that ready. And so there’s basically two ways to do it. One is you either over-provision and you can handle the bursts, or two, you basically have, I don’t know if this is a term, just-in-time compute, which is like as your load becomes, as your usage comes in, you can fire off requests for VMs or bare metals at other cloud providers and then get them up and running.Swyx [00:26:43]: This is if you go above 100%, right?Ivan [00:26:45]: Yeah, this is.Swyx [00:26:46]: Like your overflow.Ivan [00:26:46]: If your overflow, like spillage or whatever you do.Swyx [00:26:48]: You probably lose money on it, but it doesn’t matter, right?Ivan [00:26:50]: It, not Well, you might, you might not That is a more cost-effective way to do it but it’s a slower way to do it. Because basically what you have to do is you have to like queue your requests, spin up these just-in-time compute, get it all ready, provision it, and then get your workload there. And so if the time isn’t important that much, that’s fine, and you can do that. But if your customer, and especially for, let’s say, the RL training runs, the reason why a lot of people come to us is because GPUs are more expensive than CPUs, right? So you want your GPU running at, what, 100% the entire time. And so when you’re running runs on CPUs, when the when the CPU cycle is like down and spinning up the next one, you want that to be instantaneous so that your GPU doesn’t go down, right? And if you then have to like go out and provision machines, you’re essentially telling the GPU that it has to wait, and that’s incurring our cost. So there’s things that you have to try to solve for there.RL Workloads, Declarative Images, and Kubernetes ReplacementSwyx [00:27:43]: Yeah, let’s talk about the different workload, right? You said that, what was it? A few months ago, you had zero RL workload and now it’s 50%.Ivan [00:27:52]: It will be this one, 50%, yeah.Swyx [00:27:54]: Let’s talk about how different it is, right? Like I imagine, for example, a lot less dynamic code generation of like arbitrary code. Like here, it’s probably all the same code. You’re just doing parallel runs or something, I don’t know.Ivan [00:28:05]: Yeah. So you’ll have multiple Depends on the like for each run, you’ll have a snapshot. And they, for the most part, they actually do use our declarative image builder, which is like, “Oh, we, the agent wants these dependencies, these env vars.”Swyx [00:28:17]: These ones, yeah.Ivan [00:28:18]: Yeah, the declarative image builder, it.Swyx [00:28:20]: Which is a very modal like thing that they.Ivan [00:28:22]: Yeah. And so we build it on the fly and then we propagate that snapshot, and you can spin up as many sandboxes as you want against that snapshot. And then if you have to do changes, the model can, or like it could be also be automated. It’s like, “Oh, now for the next run, we need to install these things or remove these things or whatever to get, a task done,” and then it goes off and runs that. So yes, that is something that it seems that they prefer. The number one reason I found, or should I say, let’s take a step back. What we are competing against in that environment is essentially managed Kubernetes. So EKS, GKE, whatever. That is what the vast majority run on. And anyone that has tried Daytona versus GKE, EKS is like, “I’m never going back.” That has always been. There’s a few reasons. One is the ergonomics. So if you have, if you’re using Kubernetes to spin that up, you have to essentially manage the interface interactions with that. Daytona, although as a compute provider, it’s more akin to a Twilio and Stripe from a consumption perspective than it is an AWS. Like you have an API, an SDK, it’s quite like easy and seamless to get these things up and running, that’s one. The other is the speed to which we spin up, which we mentioned earlier, which is much faster, and the scale to which we can go to. We haven’t got into features, but an interesting feature is that it’s very hard to OOM, or out of memory, our sandboxes, because we can dynamically on the fly.Swyx [00:29:48]: Resize.Ivan [00:29:49]: Resize, which is like impossible on almost any other thing. There are some technologies that enable you to do that, but it’s like a very hard thing. And so we actually saw this when, the Terminal Revenge team is, brought us actually. So thank you, Alex and the team, that brought us into this whole space.Swyx [00:30:05]: It’s just very rare that, a framework would just say, “Guys, just use Daytona.”Ivan [00:30:11]: Yeah, I think it says it somewhere. Yeah.Swyx [00:30:13]: Yeah. I was like, “What is this?”Ivan [00:30:15]: There’s all, there’s multiple there, but they also mention a few other places. and so Daytona specifically-We have, the, just jumping on themes here We, I don’t know where it says Data Center.Swyx [00:30:27]: I, there.Ivan [00:30:27]: Doesn’t matter.Swyx [00:30:28]: There’s a very strong recommendation, which is, very unusual. Which is, it’s.Ivan [00:30:33]: We do not pay them for this, just.Swyx [00:30:34]: I know, yeah. They just like you.Ivan [00:30:35]: Yeah, they like us. yeah, and also a thing, so, Data Center has multiple isolation sets underneath. The customer doesn’t have to know what they are. But basically we have Docker, which is a container, that’s hardened with Sysbox. So it’s Docker’s, isolation that is a security equivalent to a VM, but it’s still a container. And that is the default, and they, especially in these training workloads, really like that as an interface to be able to use just a basic Docker container, and we enable Docker and Docker. Which for these RL runs, if you need to do a Docker compose or Kubernetes, you can spin up a K3S inside of these things, which unlocks a huge amount of workloads that you can do that you cannot do on other providers. So just on that part is much more interesting. And so we went that, through that. We showed them that we could do that, and they enjoyed that quite a bit. They being the general venture people.Swyx [00:31:28]: Those people, yeah.Ivan [00:31:29]: And Harbor people.Swyx [00:31:29]: Harbor people, do are they, are they a company yet?Ivan [00:31:33]: As far, I do not know.Customer Pull, Slack Connect, and the Computer Use BetSwyx [00:31:35]: Okay. All right. Yeah. It’s like super obvious that like, there’s a lot of excitement and success around these things, okay, so yeah, tell us more, right? Like, this is an exploding workload, Harbor adopted you, which helped speed things along. But what are you learning as this new workload comes online?Ivan [00:31:53]: There’s a couple things that we learned, which we chat about in the beginning. We, and this has led our story, as we mentioned, we like talked to a lot of customers along the way, and we add more features and more tool sets as we talk to customers. And it’s interesting that And I think it’s that the ecosystem is so small and/or the models get smarter, where when we see one user come with a request, we know it goes on a roadmap if like three to five customers come with the same request in that week. It’s like very bizarre. It happens so many times, which is.Swyx [00:32:27]: Because they’re all friends.Ivan [00:32:28]: Sorry?Swyx [00:32:28]: They all, they’re all friends. They’re all in the same group chat.Ivan [00:32:30]: Yeah, probably, yeah. ‘Cause and they’re like, “Oh, can you do this?” And I’m like, “Okay, this is interesting. We’ll put it on a feature request.” And then the next one’s like, “Oh, can you do this?” “Okay.” It’s all the same, right? It’s always the same. And so what we try to do, and I personally try to do, I try to be on as many call, quote-unquote “sales calls” I can. I’m in every Slack channel. We literally have about 1,000 Slack Connect channels, something like that. It’s an interesting, there’s so many interesting things you find out when you have all the Slack channels. You can also see where people, transfer between companies. You see leave Slack channel, enter Slack channel. It’s an interesting thing. Also, just I digress, I feel that Slack Connect is literally LinkedIn what it should be. You have a list.Swyx [00:33:08]: LinkedIn charges you to, use your own connections, but Slack doesn’t, right? Slack is like, do it for free. It’s more lock-in. It’s great.Ivan [00:33:15]: Yeah. It’s amazing. Yeah. It’s one of the reasons.Swyx [00:33:17]: You’re gonna pay Slack for life.Ivan [00:33:18]: Exactly. You’re there for life. So that’s interesting. And so one of the things, the newer things we were talking about earlier is we made a big bet and put a lot of investment on computer use. that is not seen publicly the light of day. We haven’t GA’d that yet, but we have.Swyx [00:33:32]: Is there a thing I can pull up?Ivan [00:33:33]: There is computer use there. It’s right up a bit.Swyx [00:33:36]: Oh, yeah. Okay.Ivan [00:33:38]: What we have, what we talked about and what we’ve seen publicly is there’s this theme now about, the human emulator where And Elon from XAI has talked about this publicly, and if you think about the models today, they’re actually quite sophisticated and they can do a lot of work, but they still don’t have access to all the tools. Like, I’m a strong believer that the most efficient way for an agent to work is essentially headless or through, terminal or whatnot. But if we, if we look at knowledge work in general, there’s about 100 million knowledge workers in the US, about a billion in the world, and knowledge workers, and the salaries of them aggregate to 10 trillion in the US 50 trillion worldwide.Swyx [00:34:24]: Wow.Ivan [00:34:25]: Something like that. And if we look at, the five most important sectors of that, so like healthcare and government and financial services and whatnot, that’s about 56% of that. So let’s say it’s about half of that. So in the US it’s about 25 trillion, and most of them, most of that work is actually still locked into legacy apps inside of Windows, which is not going anywhere for a very long time. Like, people just won’t invest in that. How much of it? our assumption is the following: if, in the RPA market, which is similar market, well, not the same 25% of, these white collar, workers’, work is automated. If an agent is more sophisticated, can go through more runs, figure stuff out, let’s say it’s, 40%, right? And so if you take 40% of that, you get to essentially, $10 trillion a year.Swyx [00:35:17]: That’s a TAM.Ivan [00:35:18]: That is a that is a TAM. So that’s the TAM of the models, right? That’s not our, essentially ours. But you get to that size, and to be able to do that, you essentially have to give agents these computers with the legacy. So computer use, either Mac or Windows or Linux. Linux we also obviously have and others have. But Windows specifically is something very new, and the only option right now is an EC2 with, Windows or on Azure. Both of them take anywhere from three to five minutes to spin up. We’ve created an actual sandbox, so it’s a second instead of milliseconds, but you have, point in time snapshots, you have, forking, you have all the things that you have from a sandbox, but essentially enables you to hopefully unlock all this value. And so that’s been our big push and bet, but we’ve sort of, kept our ear to the ground. What is sort of the next things in the market?RPA Returns: Why Agents Still Need ComputersSwyx [00:36:06]: Yeah, knowledge work, and building, and sort of RPA, the next wave of RPA. I got very excited about RPA kind of during COVID times. The UI path was IPO-ing. And it was, a very hot Isn’t it, Eastern European?Ivan [00:36:20]: It is, Romanian.Swyx [00:36:21]: Romanian?Yeah, it might be the only Romanian, big unicorn okay, yeah. This I don’t I don’t, I don’t have like a I think there’s, I think there’s a stage being set for the resurgence of RPA, ‘cause everyone understands that, yeah, no one wants to deal with these shitty apps and no one’s gonna rewrite them. Like, you just have to do, a remote operation and programmatic operation of them.Ivan [00:36:45]: If you wanna unlock it, my own setup was basically the following. So I was doing a board deck recently, last month, whatever, and I’m like, “Okay, let’s just, let’s just do automated.” So, all our data’s in, ClickHouse and PostHog and QuickBooks, where everyone else’s is, and I’m basically, connected that all to, my Cloud code, like go off and go Cloud code whatever. Go off and, here’s the integrations, go do that. It pulled out the first report, which was great. It connected to Brex and all these things, pulled it, which was great, and then I say, “Okay, now pull out this, and this,” and I kept getting, really well McKinsey-style design reports, but the data said partial data. all the missing data, partial data. Like, it can’t access all the things, and I got so frustrated, and so I got, I got, my Mac Mini virtual sandbox with OpenClaw. I gave it its own account in our company, and then I went to all these services and created a read-only account, so literally like an intern in your company. And so I would say, “Now go and do this report,” and it would get the same, or like, “I can’t via the MCP or the API or whatever. I can’t get all the information.” I’m like, “Go log in.” And it will log into the website, then go in, export the data. It’ll export the data and do the thing end to end. So even for things that have today APIs, not all of it is exposed, and I to get value, I get immense value right now, but it has to be a computer usage, unfortunately, and so I spend a bunch of tokens just on that, but I get the job done. And so if even a startup like ours, and using all the hottest tools, still needs a computer agent what hope does, Goldman have to have a headless, right?Swyx [00:38:22]: Yeah, what a - Why isn’t Microsoft doing this?Ivan [00:38:27]: I’m pretty sure, Satya had a post yesterday.Swyx [00:38:29]: Oh, okay. I see.Ivan [00:38:29]: Which was like, “Every agent needs a computer.”Swyx [00:38:31]: I see, I see.Ivan [00:38:32]: So they have launched something recently.Swyx [00:38:34]: Yeah, they have Microsoft Power Automate, I’m sure, I’m sure, they’re gonna have their version.macOS Sandboxes, Apple Constraints, and the Windows OpportunityIvan [00:38:39]: Version of that, yeah.Swyx [00:38:39]: You’re gonna try to do yours, and it - I always know there’s always demand for Mac, but I know it’s, tricky to host, macOS sandboxes.Ivan [00:38:49]: We will have macOS sandboxes fairly soon. The problem with macOS, OS sandboxes is, I’m deep in this, I don’t know how much interesting is.Swyx [00:38:55]: No, it’s.Ivan [00:38:56]: MacOS has this problem.Swyx [00:38:57]: It’s a licensing thing, right?Ivan [00:38:58]: Licensing thing. So one, you’re allowed to run only two parallel VMs per machine, so that’s one. Two, you can only license to a different user every 24 hours. So if you come in and theoretically, if I wanna charge you per second and I charge you one second, I have to have it idle for the rest of the day. I can’t have anyone else doing that. So the pricing will be different in the sense that I will have to - we would have to charge for 24 hours, and that’s not even, that’s not even the most difficult thing. But the, thing above that is, from a security perspective, they enable you to do memory snapshot, pause, resume, but only on the same physical drive, physical machine. And so what you can do in, Windows world or Linux world is that I can move in the background, your snapshot from one to the other and manage load, right? Here, if you wanna do that, you essentially have to have your.Swyx [00:39:49]: Yeah, snapshots. Yeah.Ivan [00:39:50]: Your.Swyx [00:39:51]: It’s like.Ivan [00:39:51]: Physical machine.Swyx [00:39:52]: You can’t break it up.Ivan [00:39:53]: You can’t, you can’t move things around that, and all of that is, that part is, from a security standpoint, if it is written. Like, I understand the security aspect of that, but it disables you from doing these agentic, like really scalable agentic workloads.Swyx [00:40:08]: You need to do a vibe-coded, clean room implementation on macOS that you can then - That’s like Clean OS or something. I don’t know.Ivan [00:40:17]: So. We have.Swyx [00:40:18]: ‘cause like Linux was originally like a clean room rewrite of Unix.Ivan [00:40:21]: Okay. Yeah.Swyx [00:40:21]: Or something like that, right? Like same thing to macOS. Someone needs to do it.Ivan [00:40:25]: Someone will do that, and someone will have some long-running agents for a few days to figure this stuff out. But yeah. So definitely we - we’re really close to offering something ‘cause people do want it, but the pricing will be different, and the feature set will be sort of stringent.Swyx [00:40:38]: Yeah, nobody’s gonna use this. like, the labs, the labs will because they want to automate macOS.Ivan [00:40:42]: They have to do RL. They have to do RL again. But even if you The - So the point is with the RL part, if you, if you do RL on macOS, then the next iteration of the model comes out, it will be able to use these tools significantly. Then you actually need to run those, that somewhere. So you’re gonna have to have that, later on. And from, if anyone at Apple is listening, I very much feel that they are shooting themselves in the foot of the scale of the revenue of compute or licensing they could get if they would just enable a concurrency model similar to what you can get on a Windows and a, and Linux.Swyx [00:41:17]: Yeah. Yeah. And I’m sure they’ve heard this before. They just don’t care. Yeah, it’s And maybe they will change their mind with the new CEO.Ivan [00:41:24]: Yeah. We’ll see.Swyx [00:41:25]: We’ll see.Ivan [00:41:25]: High hopes.Swyx [00:41:26]: High hopes.Ivan [00:41:26]: High hopes.Swyx [00:41:27]: Okay. But I, it’s very clear the market opportunity is huge in Windows, and you can go for a long time on just Windows, but your customers are gonna want both. and I think, it is interesting to me that, this is the sort of God application of agents, right? Like, I don’t It was - How big was OpenClaw for you guys? Like, was it, was there, a significant bump.OpenClaw, Agent Labs, and the B2B2C Sandbox MarketIvan [00:41:54]: Not for us because we.Swyx [00:41:54]: Because you already.Ivan [00:41:55]: We’re kind of positioned differently. Whereas although it’s completely PLG and we have individual developers that use it, most of the users that use Daytona are sort of a B2B2C. Sort of it’s either B2B or B2B2C. So, in the researcher world, it’s B2B, so you’re selling to, labs and neo labs and things like that. But on the long-running agents, it’s mostly, from a scale revenue perspective, it’s mostly B2B2C, where you have a app layer agent that uses you at a big scale.Swyx [00:42:26]: Like a Manus. Yeah.Ivan [00:42:28]: Like a Manus Lovable type of thing.Swyx [00:42:31]: Yeah. I think that’s the question of, well how, um-Uh, yeah, B2B to C is basically to me what I’ve been calling an agent lab, which is kind of like you’re not in a model lab, but you’re making a very good wrapper that is a platform that other people can sign up so they don’t have to code those things. Yeah, it sound, it sounds like a much better market than the direct OpenClaw market.Ivan [00:42:56]: I’ve like - We I’ve done multiple things. So the CodeAnywhere’s part of our career path R in the calendar, was very much an end user developer product. And so that is great. It You can get a lot of developer love, and I feel that we do as a company have a bunch of developer love. But it’s a different type, where it’s people building these things. Again, it’s more akin to a Twilio because you don’t really run - As a person, you wouldn’t run Twilio. I don’t know how many people remember. It was like ask your developer billboard and whatnot. And people really love Twilio, but they only used it inside of like, “Oh, I’m building this app or service for thing.” And so we’re very much directly to that. And you also know that I used to work for a competitor for Twilio, so it’s kind of ingrained, in my DNA.Swyx [00:43:35]: People don’t know InfoBip is that big.Ivan [00:43:38]: Yeah, it’s.Swyx [00:43:39]: Because.Ivan [00:43:40]: It’s a billion euro.Swyx [00:43:40]: They’re all American. They’re like, “Whatever’s in Europe doesn’t matter to me.” But like it’s the, it’s the same size or bigger? Same size?Ivan [00:43:46]: It’s about half the size.Swyx [00:43:47]: Half the size?Ivan [00:43:48]: Yeah, about half the size.Swyx [00:43:48]: It’s like, yeah.Ivan [00:43:48]: Still huge. Multiple billions a year. Yes.Swyx [00:43:51]: That’s crazy.Ivan [00:43:51]: Exactly, and so that - These are like really interesting and large revenue-generating, very sticky businesses. Whereas when you’re selling to the - When your focus is the end developer, it is a very hard sell because they’re very price sensitive, very price conscious, very around that. And there’s very It’s very hard to scale. Your cap is the number of people that are willing to spin up - First of all, wanna spin that up, and then spin up multiple of these. Whereas if you’re in the enterprise one, like we know everyone’s talking about like how many tokens they’re spending, I’m spending. Like a lot of companies today are like, “If this is our company, spend as much as you can.” Like basically that is where we’re going. And so if you think about that paradigm, where you’re selling to companies that say, “Spend as much as you can to generate, productivity,” versus, “Oh, I’m a single person. I have this much budget, and I’m doing this thing because it’s fun or it’s helping me out or whatever.” Like it is a different, it’s a different go-to-market, I think, strategy.MCP, CLIs, and Sandboxes as the Agent RuntimeSwyx [00:44:50]: Yeah, there’s a lot of discussion. I’m just kind of going through like the mental list of things that are in your favor, which is, for example, MCP versus CLI. Like obviously you want CLI. It’s been very good for you. I feel like it’s maybe a drop in the bucket or maybe it’s huge. I’m just checking whether it’s like these are big trends.Ivan [00:45:10]: Those things you - work well in our favor, to your point just because every.Swyx [00:45:13]: They’re kind of drop in the bucket, right?Ivan [00:45:15]: I think it’s like sort of all the things come together. And so there’s so many things that impact that. To your point, like OpenClaw wasn’t huge for us, but like having the agent SDK, from Anthropic, so or Cloud Claude Code was very interesting. The reason why it was interesting is that a lot of, let’s call them app I don’t know what to call them, app layer agent companies, essentially they are like, “Oh, I can create this new app, this new agent. All I need, I just use Claude Code, and I throw it into a sandbox, and then I have my interface to the human to that.” And so that enabled so many more companies to actually offer this, and then they would pull on sandbox. So that was, that was interesting. And to your point, like MCP, versus the CLI, the MCP is an interface against an API, whereas the CLI is like you can actually go do things. Like this is it. The difference between integrations and actually running scripts or data or analysis against a thing. So being able to use a CLI very well enables the agent to do more things, and it’s because that people will invoke a sandbox, they’ll run it in the CLI, and but it’ll do anal-analysis on that data and then give you an actual result versus just, pulling data from an API source.Swyx [00:46:29]: Yeah, it’s a layer of indirection basically, it’s the same thing as agentic search versus RAG, which where you’re.Ivan [00:46:34]: Exactly, yeah.Swyx [00:46:34]: Just like you just win whenever people put more agents into their workflow. And so like it doesn’t really matter, but I’m just kinda teasing out like what else have people heard about that like it’s sort of, “Oh yeah, this is another sandbox use case. Oh yeah, that’s another one.” Am I, am I missing any big ones?Ivan [00:46:51]: The thing, the thing that people, which is the computer use stuff, which I think is probably the most interesting one, is, and to your point, we’ve talked to so many people over the last year. It’s like, “Oh, like why do you need a sandbox? Why do you need this? Why this?” And to your point, it’s like, “Oh, I need sandbox for this. I need sandbox for that. I need sandbox-” It’s like, “Oh, I need it for every single thing.” And so basically what I, what I - and it sounds like a broken record, it’s like you use a laptop every single day, right? And you are n of one. It’s just you. But now imagine how And by the way, the laptop, the computer PC market, the PC market is about equal to the cloud market in total. So it’s about 150, 180 billion a year. Something like that. It’s about roughly the three cloud hyperscalers is about equal to like Apple, HP, Lenovo, whatever, It’s a little bit less, but it’s sort of like that. And now imagine And that’s just like, so how big is the addressable market? What, how many people are there in the world now? What’s the last data?Swyx [00:47:45]: Let’s call it eight billion.Ivan [00:47:46]: Eight billion. And so let’s say you can have two computer, like you have one personal and one business, whatever. Like so it’s double that, right? and so that’s 16 billion, right? How many agents are gonna be running in two years, in 10 years, in 100 years? Like And for every single task, they will need one of these. And so how big is that? That market is essentially quote unquote “infinite”. You will get to the point, and Dylan Patel was at the conference talking about, from SemiAnalysis, that talks usually about GPUs, was also talking about how CPUs will now be a bottleneck because it will be the constraint. You won’t be able to grow, or we won’t be able to have enough of these because there won’t be enough CPUs to basically do.Swyx [00:48:23]: Yeah. Well, I actually had a really good podcast with Doug Oliphant, who, which was his president at SemiAnalysis, where they’ve basically been like, yeah, it’s been a GPU shortage first, but then it’s cascaded down to memory and now to CPUs.Ivan [00:48:35]: CPU, yeah.Swyx [00:48:35]: It-What’s next? So networking. So, networking actually has been in shortage for a while if you’re looking at, just GPU networking. But, yeah, it’s really crazy the amount of computer use that’s going on, yeah, cool. I, other questions are, just the one very big part is the open sourceness which you didn’t have to do, your competitors don’t do, like it’s not, a lot of people are worried about keeping their projects open source because some competitor can just slot fork it. I don’t know if there’s any reflections on just being an open source company.Open Source, Trust, and Enterprise ProcurementIvan [00:49:15]: Yeah. There’s a bunch. So we the original product that we did was open source.Swyx [00:49:19]: Yeah. CodeAnywhere.Ivan [00:49:20]: So doing that was actually very good for us. There’s basically a saying of, What’s the saying? Like, companies that are, that are doing really well, measure themselves against, free cashflow, that are kinda okay, it’s EBITDA, then, it’s, it goes all the way down.Swyx [00:49:36]: The worst is like GitHub stars.Ivan [00:49:37]: GitHub stars. GitHub stars are the worst, yeah. So you go all the way down to GitHub stars. And so our original one was GitHub stars. That’s what we talked about, we’re at the point we’re talking about revenue, so we’re we’ve gone up the stack on that. And so we started.Swyx [00:49:47]: No, profit.Ivan [00:49:48]: Yeah. We haven’t, we’re, we’ll get there. We’ll get there. But basically at that point we did stars and GitHub and it was useful, and the original variation that we did, it we split the core into its own repo and it was Apache 2.0, so very, permissive. And then we basically would bundle that on the enterprise side with a proprietary repo. So it was like open core, but it didn’t, it didn’t fill out the repository was very clean. When we did the pivot, we didn’t have time to rethink this, and we wanted to We had this open source community. It felt a shame not to do that, and so, but we still did want to add some restrictions, so in the new sandbox product we did add a AGPL 3, which is, it’s a kind of a shortcut way to do that where you are open source. And it is true open source in the sense of an enterprise can use it if it, if it wants, but you essentially can’t make a competitor without open sourcing your stuff, which.Swyx [00:50:42]: It’s one of, three approaches. Like, there’s, BSL and some of the other sort of, elastic license.Ivan [00:50:47]: Yeah. There’s some others there. So pure open source believers agree that this is not full open source and I totally respect that. That is absolutely true, but we did leave that. And Daytona, in its essence everything outside of what’s under a feature flag today, which is like the Windows stuff, GPU stuff, and whatever, it is in this open source. It is there. So everything is there, like our own scheduler, everything’s there. So we are I’ve had some competitors say, “You guys are actually open source open source. Like, you’re real.” “Like, you can actually see that.” And people do like that, and it has helped a bit, but it’s actually more helped in the consumption of our cloud product than actually transferring people over. The reason is you can actually You send the repository to your agent when you’re integrating Daytona and it just has more context. It’s like, “Oh, okay. This is why this is happening. This is why this, that.”Swyx [00:51:41]: You could equivalently just have docs that you can Yeah, so, okay.Ivan [00:51:45]: I agree, but I, it to be fair, and so it actually doesn’t really help the growth significantly today. We’ve had this conversation with, investors and other people is like, “How do you convert people.Swyx [00:51:56]: Dude,.Ivan [00:51:56]: From open source?”Swyx [00:51:57]: The open source business conversation is so all over the place, right? Okay, on and I would just, for listeners who maybe they haven’t thought this through, a lot of people say, “Oh, it’s our free tier,” right? Like, “Oh, if you run it yourself, but if when you get serious, call us.” Right? And then other, And then me personally, ‘cause of my Temporal experience, it actually is the way that, it’s the, it’s GTM into some of the largest companies where we wouldn’t pass their, review process maybe ‘cause we’re too young of a company or, there’s, parts of the stack that we haven’t, that just doesn’t work with them. But because it’s open source, then they, then they adopt it, and then later on we figure it out. Like, that’s the low end and the high end. I don’t know if it.Ivan [00:52:37]: No, absolutely, and that has been historically. The thing that we have found in this AI transition is, and so we haven’t talked about this, Daytona’s customers are everything from, the single developer, the YC startup, to people say Fortune 500, I’ll say Fortune 5, like the biggest companies in the world.Swyx [00:52:55]: Big Neo labs. You told me about the, we’re gonna keep them anonymous.Ivan [00:52:59]: All, the enormous companies, right? And because the market pull is so strong, we’re able to circumvent these processes. I’m not saying We go, we pass security audits, we pass all these things, but as you mentioned, like Temporal way back in the way, day, in our old version of Daytona, like it took us months, and usually at the end they would churn off because just like, “Oh, you’re too small of a company,” like, “We don’t trust you” “enough.” Whereas today we’ve had these large companies push us, like they would push us through. Like, usually when you would go through procurement to become a vendor of large companies, it would take you like two, three months. We get it done in five days now. And this is not saying that maybe we’re great, but it’s more, I think, a sign of the market where it is today. And so when you think about that, the open source is something that we, from a go-to-market perspective, don’t think about that much because everything that we’ve created right now has been PLG through the cloud product, people signing up and just pulling us inwards.GitHub, Agent-First Versioning, and CI BottlenecksSwyx [00:53:53]: Yeah, this is a personal interest, and I don’t know if you have an answer, but, do you have problems with GitHub?Ivan [00:54:02]: I do. A little bit. A little bit.Swyx [00:54:04]: Yeah. Tell me, tell me. ‘Cause I’m thinking about, well, okay, what would it take to replace GitHub?Ivan [00:54:09]: There’s a lot of things. I’ve thought about this, and I’ve talked, I’ve tweeted about this, and I looked at some. I’ve actually invested personally in some.Swyx [00:54:17]: Is it, Entire?Ivan [00:54:18]: No, I haven’t done it.Swyx [00:54:18]: No? Okay.Ivan [00:54:19]: Yeah, so I, and I’ve met Thomas or virtually and we’ve talked. So I really think that And this was my reason for that. Because we have a bunch of background long-run agents, and for our time most of them are coding agents. Like, everyone was building up a competitor to Lovable or Devin or whatnot. What we saw from our customers was that they were all trying to figure out how to do, versioningLike, everyone is doing it in different ways. There was like some really weird ways where people were doing that, and the reason was that GitHub as is was an overhead. Like, it wasn’t fast enough what they needed, it didn’t solve the problem that they needed. And to be fair, like GitHub is for post your the inner loop, right? It is post your laptop, right?Swyx [00:55:07]: Yeah, GitHub is the point at which the outer loop starts.Ivan [00:55:11]: So people started using that for sandboxes, which is inner loop, which is usually, it’s on your laptop, right? And so that is not what it’s made for, and then we had everything from people Actually, the most interesting one is we had one customer that would literally take the entire code base inside the sandbox and every I forgot what the time sequence was, they would just dump it all into a JSON and then push that to S3. And that’s it.Swyx [00:55:37]: Make your own Git.Ivan [00:55:38]: It’s, it But it’s not, there’s not even diffs, it’s just a whole thing every single time. It’s just every Because it was super fast. Like, it didn’t matter. And then they would go back and search and find, sort of what the file was and write it, and whatnot. Because there’s text file, there’s JSON, like they’re very small so the network cost is very low, and they didn’t care, and they just did it that way. And I’m like, if people are doing this, that means there needs to be a new solution to this problem, right? And so for me, it’s quite interesting to look at who is building these types of new things. Agent first. I think Git as is still exists in the future, maybe even GitHub exists, but there will be a whole new sort.Swyx [00:56:15]: Yeah, exactly. Git is like the deploy artifact to kick off CI/CD. But then there’s a layer before that is like the agent collaboration layer.Ivan [00:56:23]: Yeah. And so I think something needs to be said there, but on the other side, like there’s issues with Another interesting thing is just like CI right now. So the amount of PRs being created is insane right now, right? In general.Swyx [00:56:33]: Even for you guys, right?Ivan [00:56:34]: Everyone’s creating a bunch of PRs. everyone. And then all that has to go through CI, and then that’s the bottleneck. Like, everyone’s bottleneck. Like, not just like, not just actions, but like go to any CI provider, you will not be able to, if you have a high throughput of PRs There’s one company we’re talking to, they do 1,000 PRs a day. Which means like And they’re just waiting. They have just a queue on that, right?Swyx [00:56:55]: What do they use, Buildkite.Ivan [00:56:58]: I don’t know what they.Swyx [00:56:59]: Circle?Ivan [00:57:00]: They’re, whatever.Swyx [00:57:00]: Technically your tech can be used for CI.Ivan [00:57:03]: That’s, that was the conversation. That was the conversation.Swyx [00:57:06]: Is that a serious conversation?Ivan [00:57:08]: We’ll, we’ll see how that goes. We’ve had quite a few conversations around that. We’re we are not a CI provider by any means, right?Swyx [00:57:13]: But what is what’s missing?Ivan [00:57:15]: No, so essentially.Swyx [00:57:17]: Nothing.Ivan [00:57:18]: You, essentially you could use a Daytona sandbox instead of whatever you use for, your GitHub runners essentially.Swyx [00:57:27]: Like, yeah, I’m The only thing I would say is like maybe CI machines are supposed to be very cheap, maybe it’s like the low end because it’s supposed to be like, non-blocking or like something like a, like a background job. Like, it’s, the urgency is not that important for CI.Ivan [00:57:45]: Performance is, though. Performance is, yeah.What Sells Daytona: Responsiveness, Support, and Customer TrustSwyx [00:57:48]: Yeah, okay, that is interesting, and yeah, I think, like before we leave Daytona and go into like sort of broader like founder takes and what have you, any other Daytona elements that, is interesting that we haven’t touched on?Ivan [00:58:04]: Interesting Daytona things. There’s, there.Swyx [00:58:06]: I can, I can give you more prompts if you want.Ivan [00:58:07]: Yeah, I’d love more prompts, actually.Swyx [00:58:09]: Okay. So when startups evaluate you, so you have, you have all these like names and you have more that you can’t, you can’t even name, they see all your wall of competitors. and yeah, you have differentiation versus, many of these, but like what sells them?Ivan [00:58:26]: The thing that we found that sells people the most, this is more maybe a day two thing instead of a day one thing. And we’ve seen this again and again. So we have a bunch of case studies, and we have a bunch of them still coming out. They’re all done by a third party, so we don’t do the case studies, and it’s actually interesting to watch those cases. I watch, they’re recorded, and because it’s a third party, people are actually more open, and they will tell you, “Oh, we use this competitor,” or, “We like this competitor more,” or this thing or whatever. And the number one thing that people come back to us for is that our, we have an insane responsiveness.Swyx [00:58:57]: In terms of your team?Ivan [00:58:58]: In terms of the team, yeah. Insane responsiveness has been by far the Now, we can talk about like features and breadth of product and concurrency and CPUs and like all those things, but I feel that would probably So if all other things are equal, that is very much a differentiator I’ve found. And I didn’t know.Swyx [00:59:15]: Is that entirely Slack or Slack plus email?Ivan [00:59:18]: It is, there’s email there as well, there’s calls, but the vast majority is like on Slack. So it’s Slack. Like, we have had customers like, “Hey, we have a problem. Can you get on Huddle?” Like, we will get on that Huddle like in five minutes, literally. I’ve done this multiple times, so yeah.Swyx [00:59:31]: Wait, okay, so how big are you?Ivan [00:59:33]: 25 today.Swyx [00:59:34]: How do you do this kind of support like this?Ivan [00:59:36]: We’re insane. We don’t sleep. 007, have you heard the new thing?Swyx [00:59:40]: 007. like I’ve met your team. They’re very impressive, they’re very dedicated, but like also how do you get a team to do that? it’s.Startup Culture, Family Tradeoffs, and Enjoying the PainIvan [00:59:48]: So there’s.Swyx [00:59:49]: I have Slack exhaustion?Ivan [00:59:51]: Yeah, we all have Slack exhaustion. We’re very tired. the thing that is unique, I don’t know unique about us, but unique, I would say unique about any successful, serial founder is that you’re able to pull in people that you’ve worked with before, and so you can’t do that as a first-time founder. Like, I couldn’t have done that or not. But of the 25 people in Daytona, I think about 13 of them we have worked with seven years plus. So it’s like high trust, high throughput, high we know what we’re signing off to do. And especially these people worked with us when we were starting, and we were actually hustling. hungry for food hustling type level, and so those are the people that work with us. The, now the new segment that has come is almost everyone is sort of, one degree of separation, so it’s like someone that someone has known, and so they sort of come into this org. And we’ve had people that have like not fit into org as well. It’s just like, it’s type of culture where there is a high expectation of, being online, replying for these things, and I do that first. You if you ask any engineer, they’re like, “You never sleep,” like, about me. And so then I do that as an I don’t do it as an example. That’s just how I’m wired. My wife doesn’t appreciate that I have to tell you. My wife doesn’t appreciate that. I told her about 996, she said, “I wish.”Swyx [01:01:09]: It’s like these Chinese people are slacking.Ivan [01:01:13]: Yeah. So, that is something there. And so I think every company has their own culture, and that’s something very deep, ours. And it’s something that’s come up again and again, and every single day we’re reminded about that. And I didn’t go out thinking that is how I’m gonna build it. It’s just how I’ve built these things right now.Swyx [01:01:29]: Yeah. so okay, I’ll transition a little bit on the founder side. Like, I’m very impressed by you in general of, your sort of balance, you have, you have a young family.Ivan [01:01:38]: Two kids, yeah.Swyx [01:01:39]: Two kids now.Ivan [01:01:40]: Yeah, two kids now. Yeah.Swyx [01:01:41]: I think a lot of people I meet, they’re like, “Oh, I’m starting a family. I can’t be a founder,” and all that, what’s your advice to those people?Ivan [01:01:48]: Everyone has their own I, it’s a hard, it’s a hard, they Every single day, so my family, they’re here right now, but they’re usually I fly between Croatia and here. Like, a lot of our team is in Croatia. A part of our team, and are growing, is here now in San Francisco. And so I spend a lot of time away from my family, and that is hard. Like, that is a sacrifice that you have to. But going in, people say, on your deathbed, you’re gonna miss some of those things. The thing that, and probably might be true, but the thing that going into this, I already said, I know that this is gonna hurt, and everything has to hurt. By the way, I’m very much of a feeling that everything has to hurt. Going to the gym hurts. Losing weight hurts. Like, everything has to hurt, right? It does. Like, we all.Swyx [01:02:32]: No pain, no gain.Ivan [01:02:33]: It is literally, but you actually have to enjoy the pain and just, if you don’t enjoy the pain, it’s not for you. And so you get accustomed to that pain. And so love the kids, especially I have a daughter and a son. Daughter is the eldest, love her and do miss her when she’s not here, but it’s like, that’s what I signed up for, and there is a plan and target of what I’m trying to achieve. And now hopefully with my wife, which does support me, we can get ourselves together more, so it doesn’t there. But she takes a large part portion of that. And so if you have a partner on the other side that is okay with that, then you can do that. But even if they do, you have to be okay with not being there, right?Swyx [01:03:11]: Yeah. This is my vision for you, this meme.Ivan [01:03:15]: Yeah. I.Swyx [01:03:15]: That’s your kids in the future.Ivan [01:03:18]: Yeah, I think.Swyx [01:03:18]: It’s like this,.Ivan [01:03:18]: We have to teach them that they’re not rich.Swyx [01:03:19]: Because Dad, built the compute sandboxes.Ivan [01:03:21]: Yeah, you built compute sandboxes. Dad made sandboxes. Dad made sandboxes.Swyx [01:03:25]: Built the spiritual successor to serverless and Kubernetes and for agents, any other sort of, hot topics, trends? You have a lot of hot takes, actually, you are best known for, you were, you were, you were sort of in sort of hustle culture mode, right? And someone quoted you and said, “I haven’t even heard of you, bro.” “Just log off and take the, take the Christmas off.” And then your response was?Ivan [01:03:53]: Oh, my response was, “That’s why I can’t.”Swyx [01:03:56]: Like, I think that’s, very typical of you. I don’t have it here. I can’t, I can’t bring it up. But, I think that’s very typical of the culture. But, I think you have a lot of, interesting hot takes like that. Any other sort of takes on, the startup ecosystem?SaaS Token Resellers, API Revenue, and Startup Hot TakesIvan [01:04:11]: Oh, yeah, the startup ecosystem. And this was the recent one, which is I think that And this is general, business. I feel that the It didn’t come off, I think, well on Twitter. Some people at least misread it. Which is, the market is adding premium to SaaS vendors that are reselling tokens. And I think that’s incorrect.Swyx [01:04:34]: Why?Ivan [01:04:35]: Because I think So what I think, why I think that’s incorrect is that if you look at, one, your pricing depends on what the price is, if it’s public market or if it’s private or whatever. You’re saying, the person that’s reading that the re-acceleration of revenue is equal to the old revenue, which it’s not even close. Because one, you had on SaaS, you had typical SaaS margins, whatever it was, right? Stickiness and all these things. Now what you’re doing is you are saying, “Here is my agent, and I have whatever the margin is.” It’s way worse, right? And now you’re using Anthropic or OpenAI or whatever through me, the SaaS product, and then we as a community are saying now that is re-acceleration. And so one, I think that’s wrong because it, first, it’s not the same. The makeup is not the same. The other thing is, and go back to, what I mentioned earlier is, the Kua and how I set up OpenCloud and whatever. I don’t want your agent, essentially, because what happens, right now we have a problem that, and this has historically been, you have data siloed in, again, ClickHouse, QuickBooks, it’s all siloed, and now you’re giving me an agent that’ll give me the data, but it’s still siloed, right? And so now I have to, take that data and then get another agent.Swyx [01:05:52]: Just expose the data to my agent.Ivan [01:05:53]: Just expose the data. Just expose it. And one thing I have to and so I’m like, “Just expose everything and charge me for that.” So charge me for consumption of API. So you’ll have your old seat-based pricing for humans. Charge me for this. The number of agents will skyrocket, and essentially you’ll have more usage, and charge for more if your product has value. So, there’s arguments some of them do have value. It’s a database, not database. We can get into that. But some of them really do, and I was actually shocked that the first person to do this was Benioff.Swyx [01:06:24]: Salesforce, yeah.Ivan [01:06:25]: Sales.Swyx [01:06:25]: Agentforce?Ivan [01:06:26]: It, there was a tweet, I think three days ago, where she said every product in Salesforce has been exposed via an API.Swyx [01:06:33]: Wow.Ivan [01:06:33]: Everything. And I’m like, now I understand why this person has built.Swyx [01:06:38]: This guy’s king.Ivan [01:06:38]: This insane. Kudos to him. Amazing. It’s like, thank you. I don’t know if you listen to me or someone else, but like thank you for someone This is the direction of the world, and so if you can get real acceleration against that, against consumption of API, that is actual revenue, and that is actual real acceleration, and that is where value come from. And I think that there will be cold shower when people understand, no one’s actually gonna use and pay for these agents and tokens, and that wasn’t actually really a solution, but it’ll drop back down.Swyx [01:07:05]: Yeah. Yeah, look, obviously, I think generally correct, and I agree. I think - But people are going to try to become an AI company.Ivan [01:07:15]: No, absolutely. And nothing against that. And I - this is no, - To be very clear, this is not a downer on anyone that’s building this thing. Everyone has to get to, get to the revenues, get to the multiples, get the valuations, do what you have to get to the next step. Absolutely agree. But we, as a community, are now, saying, “Oh, this is, the magical way to get out.” This is not. Like, that is not what is happening, right?Swyx [01:07:35]: Yeah. No, I think, there was like this kitchen appliance company that put out some AI nonsense recently.Ivan [01:07:42]: It was also the sneaker as well. It was called Allbirds.Swyx [01:07:44]: Allbirds. No, Allbirds is pivoting to GPU. That’s fine. It’s like, I have - I can - I have some money left, I’m just gonna, do some lottery tickets, would you go into offering GPUs?GPU Sandboxes, Data Centers, and Bare Metal EconomicsIvan [01:07:55]: Oh, yeah, we will. But not for inference. Like, essentially, what we think about is, the GPU sandbox. So, if you think of, if you have a GPU in your computer, that is what you have a GPU in the sandbox. So, there are workloads that do need GPUs. Again, I always go back to 3D rendering ‘cause it’s the easiest one to comprehend. But, if you wanna do any type of RL on, CAD or something like that, you will need a GPU in the sandbox, and so that’s coming now as well, yeah.Swyx [01:08:18]: How about own data centers?Ivan [01:08:20]: Own data centers. So we run on co-location providers, bare metal machines. Data centers, we technically can run on that or our own data center. Like, that’s how we architected it. Today, from a gross profit margin perspective, it doesn’t make sense for us to get in that. You have to raise a large amount of capital, a large amount of risk for, single-digit percentage points. So today, that doesn’t make sense, but we are fundamentally architected so that we can do that if we want.Swyx [01:08:47]: Yeah. you’re a large customer of these guys now. Do you see any opportunity?Ivan [01:08:51]: We will see. We will see, yeah.Swyx [01:08:54]: Yeah. I see a lot of people, trying to do the bare metal thing, we talked to Railway, the other day and they’re also doing a very similar, strategy.Ivan [01:09:04]: They think - I think they’re building out something or they have their own sort of data centers now.Swyx [01:09:07]: Yeah, they have majority their own data centers, I - But I do think, they still use Equinix and all those things. So I think it’s just interesting that this model basically hasn’t changed. It’s basically a real estate model. They manage the facilities and then you do everything else, I wonder how it can be changed for the, for the future ‘cause, the AI wave is the opportunity to reinvent everything, yeah. anything else, cool. I think that’s about it. I didn’t have any other, topics. I think this is, as best and comprehensive, if you have, any questions about the compute market, and sandboxing and Daytona, this is the best place to start. Where does this go, man? Like, we’re here in April. Things are growing 75% month to month. Like, where are we, where are we gonna be by end of year?The Agent Cloud: New AWS, New Stripe, or Something ElseIvan [01:09:58]: It’s an insane number. I’m sort of scared to say it out loud. So, it is - It’s very big, just the sandbox market on - And we - There - We talked about this in general. The entire infrastructure market is growing 40% plus or minus month over month. Everyone is growing 40% month to month. And that’s also a hot take, is like if you’re not growing 40%-ish, it’s not that - It’s just the market. You might as well - You don’t have to come to work to grow that amount, basically. I’m half kidding, but that’s where it’s going. And so where does it end? We will see. The thing that I think about from at least a CPU perspective, a GPU is even crazier, but from a CPU perspective, it is like there’s a high probability that actually owning the CPUs beforehand will be a go-to-market tactic, and it will probably - ‘Cause I - You - As you do probably talk to a lot of GPU providers, their growth is hindered by the amount of GPUs that you have right now, right?Swyx [01:10:47]: Yeah. It’s just like, it’s whatever NVIDIA decides to bless that day.Ivan [01:10:51]: That’s how much, that’s how much they’re gonna grow, right? And so where - The CPU market in general, be it like something like Railway, for example, or Vercel or whatnot, or Deployment, or it’s like the sandboxes, they’re still CPUs. So, each is growing at the pace of the of their - the market and what their, plus or minus of that market. But it’s still not constrained by that. And so my thought is, for all of us in this market, and databases fall into that as well ‘cause databases also run on CPUs. And it’s like we all have to grow as fast as we can so we can get enough of, CPUs tomorrow from Intel or from NVIDIA, ‘cause they have now CPUs and everyone else later on. So it’ll be interesting when we get to that cap.Swyx [01:11:30]: Okay. maybe one version I’ll phrase this is like, are you, is the potential new Heroku, new AWS or new, what’s it? New Stripe but compute? Or like what’s the, what’s the analogy that is most appropriate?Ivan [01:11:48]: There’s interesting. There’s like analogies of like - So the, there’s new Cloudflare, but new Cloudflare is new Cloudflare.Swyx [01:11:54]: New Cloudflare.Ivan [01:11:54]: They’re actually doing a really good job about,.Swyx [01:11:56]: Cloudflare owns networking. No one can fight. it’s like, come on.Ivan [01:11:59]: They’re doing - No, they’re doing really well. No, what I said is in the sense of their whole agent portfolio is actually really good. And I should say there are some technical I think, personally, around, everything’s under constrained under Workers. Like, Workers is their thing. But from a go-to-market vision perspective, I think they’re actually really good. I think they actually get it, unlike some other companies, and to your question is like, what is gonna be - There will be an equivalent, everyone says like an AWS for AI agents, but your answer, it might look more like Stripe than AWS, in a sense. So there will be a cloud built out specifically for agents. And so that cloud will have sandboxes, and it will have web search, and it’ll have, databases like SQLite or Neon or whatever, specifically for agent and other things. We are not at the end of the new infrastructure primitives for agents. There are more coming. So people think like, “Oh, there’s nothing else. This it.” There are more. Like, we have some ideas about the next ones. We don’t have time to do them, but there are definitely more primitives that are being built out for agents, and there will be, I think, a cloud that runs all that together.Swyx [01:13:07]: Yeah. Yeah, OpenAI has said AI cloud, Vercel has said AI cloud, and you are potentially also one of the other, the prospective AI clouds. I think it’s a very big prize to win, well, thanks for coming on.Ivan [01:13:18]: Thank you for having me. It’s been amazing.Swyx [01:13:19]: Yeah. Okay. That’s it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Railway: The Agent-Native Cloud — Jake Cooper 20.05.2026 1h 28min

  Take the 2026 AI Engineering Survey and get >$2k in credits and AIE WF tickets!This was recorded before Railway suffered a major GCP outage on May 19, despite being a multi-AZ, multi-zone mesh ring, with HA fiber interconnects between their Metal GCP AWS, because workload discoverability was unintentionally still tied to GCP. All has been resolved with a post-mortem.Railway did not start as an AI infrastructure company.It was founded in 2020 years before agents became the default way people thought about deploying software. Jake Cooper, formerly at Bloomberg and Uber, started Railway with a simple obsession: the activation energy to ship something to production should be near zero. Push code, get a URL, iterate. No Docker files, no Kubernetes manifests, no Ansible scripts stacked on Ansible scripts.For years, this was a slow grind. Railway spent its first 18 months hand-acquiring its first 100 users with Jake personally greeting every Discord signup on a second monitor.Today, Railway has raised $124m and is growing very fast. A 35-person team supports 3 million users, adding roughly 100,000 signups a week. Their bare metal data centers have a 3-month payback period vs. renting in the cloud, with 70% margins funding aggressive cloud bursting when needed. The servers they own have actually appreciated in value as RAM prices have climbed basically meaning the value of their hardware now exceeds the capital they've raised.From rebuilding Railway’s network overlay over a weekend to moving the vast majority of workloads onto its own bare metal data centers, Jake Cooper is trying to build a new cloud for an agent-native world. In this episode, Railway’s founder and “conductor” joins swyx and Alessio to unpack why the next era of software infrastructure is not just “Heroku but newer,” what agents need that humans did not, and why the old deployment loop of Git, PRs, CI/CD, and static cloud resources may be heading for a rewrite.We go deep on Railway’s infrastructure stack: own-metal data centers, three-month cloud payback periods, cloud bursting, data center debt, Railpack, Nixpacks, Temporal, feature flags, Central Station, content-addressable filesystems, agent-safe production forks, and why the CLI may become more important than the canvas in an agent world. Jake also shares the founder journey behind Railway, how the company survived losing $500K/month, why it now serves millions of users with only 35 people, and why he believes the pull request is dying.We discuss:* How Railway went from a slow six-year grind to adding 100,000 users a week* How Railway thinks about agents as the next dominant software species* Why agents need version control, observability, compute, storage, and orchestration at 1000x scale* The economics of Railway’s own-metal data centers and three-month payback* How Railway uses cloud bursting while scaling its own infrastructure* Why data center debt can be a better tool than venture debt for infra startups* Central Station, Railway’s internal system for clustering customer feedback and incidents* Why responsible disclosure and over-communication matter for platforms* Why feature flags, progressive rollouts, and shadow traffic are essential for agents* Temporal’s strengths, pain points, and why workflows matter for agents* Railpack, Nixpacks, Nix, and lazy-loaded content-addressable filesystems* Why “cattle, not pets” may change if you can clone the pets* Why Railway is building a new cloud from scratch instead of copying hyperscalers* The solo founder path, focus, writing, and how Jake thinks about company buildingRailway:* Website: https://railway.com/* X: https://x.com/RailwayJake Cooper:* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejakecooper/* X: https://x.com/JustJakeTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction: What Is Railway?00:02:07 Jake’s Path to Railway00:06:13 Railway’s Six-Year Growth Story00:08:52 Rebuilding the Business After the Free Tier00:11:17 Agents as the Next Software Platform00:13:29 Railway’s Infrastructure Philosophy00:15:42 Bare Metal, Cloud Economics, and the Compute Crunch00:17:22 Cloud Bursting and Five-Cloud Networking00:20:20 Data Center Debt and Infra Financing00:23:31 Data Centers in Space00:25:24 What Agents Need From Infrastructure00:28:24 CLIs, Canvas, and Agent-Native UX00:35:15 Central Station, Incidents, and Responsible Disclosure00:40:30 Safe Rollouts, SRE Agents, and Production Forks00:45:00 AI SRE, Specs, Code, and Tests00:48:24 Self-Replicating Infrastructure and the New Serverless00:53:18 Heroku, Temporal, and Workflow Engines01:04:07 Railpack, Nixpacks, and Lazy-Loaded Filesystems01:06:01 Coding Agents, Token Spend, and Roadmap Acceleration01:10:56 The Pull Request Is Dying01:12:28 Feature Flags and the Agent-Era SDLC01:16:15 Cattle, Pets, and Cloning Machines01:19:29 Solo Founder Lessons01:24:12 Focus, GPUs, and Building a New Cloud01:28:20 Closing ThoughtsTranscriptAlessio [00:00:00]: Hey, everyone. Welcome to the Latent Space Podcast. This is Alessio, founder of Kernel Labs, and I’m joined by Swyx, editor of Latent Space.Swyx [00:00:10]: Hey, hey, hey. Today we’re in the studio with Jake Cooper of Railway.Alessio [00:00:14]: Conductor of Railway.Swyx [00:00:15]: Conductor at Railway. Yeah.Alessio [00:00:16]: Choo-choo.Swyx [00:00:17]: Do you actually have that anywhere, like on your business card?Jake [00:00:20]: We call some of our volunteer moderators conductors. I don’t have a business card. We’re not that big yet. At some point I will. I got handed a nice business card from the Supermicro folks, and I was like, “Damn, this is pretty official.”Swyx [00:00:30]: Business cards are coming back.Jake [00:00:32]: They’re cool. They’re hip. The conductor thing is good. We’re trying to figure out what we want to call each other internally. Some people think it’s super cringe and say, “You don’t need a name for people internally.” Some people want to call each other something. We still don’t have a really good one.Jake [00:00:55]: We’ve got New Railcrews, Trainiacs. Nothing has stuck yet.Swyx [00:01:00]: I like Trainiac. Trainiac sounds good. Railwayians. For those who don’t know, what is Railway? Let’s give people a crisp definition up front.Jake [00:01:09]: Railway is the easiest way to ship anything. You go to the canvas, or you talk with Claude, and you say, “Deploy a Postgres instance, deploy my GitHub repository, run this code,” and you’re off to the races.Swyx [00:01:22]: You’ve got a nice animation on the landing page.Jake [00:01:24]: Thank you. None of my work, by the way. They don’t let me touch the design stuff anymore.Jake [00:01:25]: We want to make it trivially easy not just to deploy things, but to evolve applications over time. Most tooling right now stacks entropy on top of entropy: Docker, Kubernetes, Ansible scripts, and all these other things. If we can version all of your software and keep track of all the changes, then we can make it trivial to clone environments, fork into a parallel universe, get copies of production data, get copies of any services, make changes, validate them, and collapse them back in without reproducing everything across a staging environment.The Railway Origin Story: From Uber Systems to a New CloudSwyx [00:02:07]: I was looking at your background: Bloomberg, Uber. Nothing immediately stands out as, “This guy is going to found the next great platform as a service.” What prepared you for Railway?Jake [00:02:21]: It was curiosity to keep going deeper. I started out on front-end stuff, working on Wolfram Mathematica and porting it over. Then I briefly moved to Bloomberg, then toward Uber and distributed systems, taking the Jump Bikes systems and moving them to a distributed system built on top of Cadence, the pre-Temporal Temporal.Swyx [00:02:44]: Which, by the way, I’m happy to talk about, pros and cons.Jake [00:02:48]: Totally.Swyx [00:02:51]: But let’s do the Railway story.Jake [00:02:52]: It has been a continual step of wanting an experience. Whether it’s walking up to a bike, unlocking it, and having it work frictionlessly, or something else, the depth required to make that happen follows from the experience. A lot of the work I do, and a lot of the team does, is in service of that experience. We fundamentally don’t care how deep we have to go. We will swim to the bottom of the swimming pool to get the experience.Jake [00:03:17]: I don’t have a physics PhD. I did an EECS degree. It has always been about figuring out the next step: how do we get there? That’s what led to starting Railway for that experience and then moving all the way to bare metal data centers. I was adding patches to the kernel this week to get the experience there because I can see how much better it can be.Swyx [00:03:49]: Other patches to the Linux kernel this week?Jake [00:03:51]: Yeah. Not upstream. Our fork.Swyx [00:03:52]: That’s a flex. Railpack? No, this is different. This is the OS on top of Railpack?Jake [00:03:57]: No, this is an actual kernel patch. It’s always literally: what do we have to do to get that experience? Then figure it out. Anything is figureoutable.Swyx [00:04:10]: Would you send the patch upstream, or does it not fit other use cases?Jake [00:04:13]: Maybe. We have to work out the experience internally. It has to do with the storage layer we’re building for some of the agentic stuff. Maybe it’ll be useful upstream, but it’s deeply useful for us internally.Open Source, Forks, and Non-Deterministic VersioningSwyx [00:04:29]: You mentioned open source before. How do you think about starting from open source, and then coding agents letting you do a lot more from forks of it?Jake [00:04:38]: GitHub’s original sin is that it’s almost a series of broken pointers. You have this thing, then you clone it, and now you’ve lost the whole upstream. How do we make it trivial for people to modify really small pieces of it?Jake [00:04:51]: We think of Git in a discrete sense: I’ve either made a change and merged upstream, or I haven’t. What would it look like if it were percentage-based, a little more non-deterministic, or a stream of changes that users traverse as a percentage rolled out in general and then rolled all the way up?Jake [00:05:13]: We have the open-source kickback program and let you deploy templates because we want to make it trivial for people to version these shards over time. It solves a large problem around authentication, authorization, and security. NPM has a way to define, “Don’t take any new packages.” The ideal end state is that you roll out progressively to users with the minimum impact zone and continue rolling up. JPMorgan should probably be the last one on the patch line, for all our sakes, because our money and livelihoods are there.Jake [00:05:53]: It’s okay if Johnny Vibe Coder gets a broken patch because there’s so much entropy in the system that the rubber has to meet the road at some point. You have to test at varying levels.The Long Grind: First Users, Free Tier, and Making the Business WorkSwyx [00:06:13]: I wanted to pull up this glorious chart, which is your usage or number of daily signups?Jake [00:06:22]: Daily signups, I think.Swyx [00:06:24]: You started six years ago. It was a slow grind, and now you’re on a rocket ship. You say, “Don’t doubt your fight and don’t quit.” Maybe pick out certain points that were key inflections for the company.Jake [00:06:40]: At the start, it’s about getting your first 100 users, hell or high water. We had a website and a support link. The support link was the Discord channel. I had notifications on with two monitors: the monitor I was working on and the other monitor with Discord. If anybody came in, I was immediately like, “Hey, how’s it going?” It was rare, so getting those first 100 users to come back was the start.Jake [00:07:14]: Then you build a consultancy factory because users want all these things. You have to go back to the board and ask, “What is the actual product offering I want to build on top of this?”Jake [00:07:28]: VCs want charts that always go up and to the right, but in reality you don’t necessarily want charts that look like that. For us, there have been periods of expansion where we add features to test use cases, and periods of compaction where we ask, “If the experience we have is good, how do we make it significantly better?” Maybe we strip out features that don’t fit our ICP anymore.Jake [00:07:57]: The boom from 2022 to 2023 came from the free tier. Everybody under the sun was using it.Swyx [00:08:09]: A lot of Reddit bots and Discord bots.Jake [00:08:12]: And crypto miners. When you build an open product on the internet where anybody can sign up, the internet is a horrible place with so many things. You go through periods of asking, “How do I reach as many people as possible?” Then, “How do I fit the exact use case for the people who really matter and are really excited about this specific thing?”Jake [00:08:39]: Then there was a two-year period of making the actual business work. During the free-tier era, we were losing about half a million dollars a month.Swyx [00:08:59]: On a $20 million bank account.Jake [00:09:02]: On a $20 million bank account with maybe $50,000 a month in revenue. That’s a horrible business. I don’t know how anybody invested. But you have to go through it and say, “We have an experience people love, but the business has to work.”Jake [00:09:17]: There are two schools of thought. You can run the horrible business all the way up with bad margins, or you can go back and make it work. We’ve always wanted a super lean team. We’re 35 people right now. It’s very small.Swyx [00:09:36]: Supporting three million already?Jake [00:09:38]: Yeah. We’re adding 100,000 users a week right now, so it’s growing fast. We don’t want to add headcount for the sake of headcount or throw bodies at problems. We want to build systems. It’s hard to build systems during expansion because you’re adding things to the system because people are asking for them or things are breaking.Jake [00:10:00]: We had to cut off the free users for a little while, rebuild the business, and make sure it worked. We want to reach as many people as possible because software is important. It’s become difficult to create things in the physical world, so it’s important to make it easy for people to build in the virtual world and have access to creation. But there are legs to that journey.Jake [00:10:30]: You can see divots in the charts. If you follow between 2025 and 2026, it’s either summer or winter. People go on holiday with family.Swyx [00:10:50]: It affects that much?Jake [00:10:51]: Yeah. It’s kind of B2C and kind of B2B. People are shipping constantly, then they stop. Our activation curve now shows more people activating on weekdays because we have more business users, so it smooths out over time.Agents as the New Interface to DeploymentSwyx [00:11:17]: Was there a point where you started prioritizing AI development or agent development?Jake [00:11:24]: We’ve prioritized agentic as a top-of-funnel thing. Over the last six months, we’ve deeply prioritized agentic as a mechanism to build and deploy things because we believe the curve is so steep and that is how people will build and deploy software.Jake [00:11:42]: It almost fundamentally doesn’t matter whether this is dot-com or not because we’re all on the internet anyway. If agents are going to deploy a bunch of things and we hit an inference wall at some point, we’ll fix those problems. The dominant species over the next 10 years is that we’ve moved from assembly to C to C++ to JavaScript to words. You’re going to need to close that loop.Swyx [00:12:13]: When you say this is dot-com, did you mean buying the domain, or the general case?Jake [00:12:17]: I mean the dot-com era, when companies had a huge run-up because people understood the internet was important. Then they hit bottlenecks, fundamental laws of physics, math didn’t work, and everybody came back down to earth. But it didn’t matter because the internet became so impactful. If you operate on a long enough time horizon, you should build these things anyway because you can see where it’s going.Jake [00:12:45]: That’s where I think a lot of agent stuff is. You get to a point where you’re running thousands of agents in parallel. What is the inference cost? What is the compute cost? How do you make that efficient? How do you coordinate all this? We have issues coordinating humans; we don’t even have good tooling for that. Now we have to figure out how to get agents to coordinate, safely version changes, and know when to raise their hand for someone to intervene. Otherwise it becomes an interrupt factory.Railway’s Infrastructure Thesis: Network, Compute, Storage, and MetalSwyx [00:13:19]: Let’s go right into the technical side. What are the core infrastructure or architectural beliefs of Railway that allow you to do what you do?Jake [00:13:29]: The primitives matter a lot for us. We need network, compute, storage, and orchestration around it. You need control over a lot of those things. We’ve talked a lot about how we don’t really use Kubernetes because we want higher-order control to place workloads in very specific places.Jake [00:13:48]: The reason is that you have to be very efficient with agents: memory reuse and all these other things, or you’re going to massively blow up your cost structure. Being able to rack and stack your own servers and build your own metal unlocks performance and cost. Experiences where you’re running 1,000 agents in parallel are not massively cost prohibitive.Jake [00:14:13]: Token use and compute use are blowing up. Over time, those things have to get a lot more efficient. You can get a lot of margin to make those experiences solid by building your own metal. That’s all in service of offering a differentiated experience to as many people as humanly possible.Swyx [00:14:51]: You have a data center in Singapore.Jake [00:14:53]: Yeah. We have two in every other region now. In Singapore, we’re adding a second one in Q3.Swyx [00:14:58]: What’s it like? I’ve never built a data center. Do you go to Equinix and say, “I want some slots?”Jake [00:15:05]: Yeah. Equinix. You basically go and say, “I want power and I want a cage.” They say, “Great, here’s what it’s going to be.” You rent the cage for a period of time, fill it with racks and servers, and hook up internet to it. That’s all the pieces.Swyx [00:15:36]: Then you handle everything else.Jake [00:15:37]: You handle everything else.Swyx [00:15:39]: What’s the math versus clouds doing it for you?Jake [00:15:43]: If we rented in the cloud, our payback period when we go to metal is about three months.Swyx [00:15:50]: Which is crazy.Jake [00:15:51]: It’s nuts. That’s four years of depreciated hardware. You’re going to see a lot of this compute crunch because hyperscalers are buying up a lot of stuff. We’re working directly with OEMs, resellers, and people building these machines: Supermicro, Dell, and others.Jake [00:16:11]: Upstream, there’s a bunch of supply pressure. When we raised our last round, between deploying capital for servers and now, the amount of money we’ve raised is less than the amount of money we have in the bank plus the value of the servers because the servers have appreciated as RAM has gone up. It’s nuts how valuable hardware has become.Jake [00:16:50]: If you look at hyperscalers, they deployed around $80 billion of capital expenditures this year, and next year will be more. That’s a massive infrastructure build-out. You look at that and think it’s crazy that they’re spending way more than the Manhattan Project. But if every person is going to run dozens or hundreds of agents in parallel, you have no conceptual idea how much compute is required to make that experience happen, even if you’re deeply efficient and sharing resources. And that doesn’t even count inference.Swyx [00:17:22]: How do you plan the build-out? The growth chart is so vertical. Are you usually at 100% utilization as soon as racks are live? How far ahead are you planning?Jake [00:17:33]: We still maintain cloud presence for bursting. We work with AWS, GCP, and a few other clouds. We can rent, and then the moment we get space or power, we compact those workloads off the cloud. We started on the clouds, then built a system to migrate to our own metal. There’s nothing that says you can’t continually do that again, and that’s exactly what we do. We never want to be compute constrained.Jake [00:18:09]: At the start of the year, we actually became compute constrained because one upstream provider wasn’t able to give us quota at the rate we needed, and the hardware was slower. I spent a weekend rebuilding our entire network overlay so we could straddle five clouds: Oracle, AWS, ourselves, GCP, and one other one. We can do more than that now.Jake [00:18:38]: We got into a spot where we were trying to pack instances tight because we couldn’t get enough compute. That led to a few reliability issues, which are now past us. I made a tweet pointing out that it’s becoming harder and harder to acquire compute at the rate these models need to acquire compute. We got bit by it.Swyx [00:19:15]: How do you think about pricing knowing you might not have your own metal available at all times? Are you pricing assuming you need extra margin if you end up going into the cloud?Jake [00:19:26]: Because we’ve built out our metal data centers, our margins on metal are around 70%. We can deeply subsidize the cloud business if we want to scale at a reasonable rate. We have a few levers: metal, which makes the margins; cloud burst; debt to buy servers; and venture capital. It’s an interesting operational problem: how much cash do we have, how much should we raise, how quickly can we deploy it, and can we scale revenue as quickly as we scale compute?Jake [00:20:05]: If we continue making it trivially easy for people to build and deploy, then the faster we close that loop and the more operationally excellent we are with capital, the faster the business can scale. It’s almost a straight linear deployment rate.Financing Infrastructure: Hardware Debt, VC, and Operational LeverageSwyx [00:20:20]: I think infra startups raising debt is a tool people don’t utilize enough or know enough about. What can you tell us about that? Is it secured against your CPUs?Jake [00:20:32]: It’s secured against our hardware.Swyx [00:20:37]: What rates do you get? Who are the lenders?Jake [00:20:39]: We pay prime plus a spread, and we can refinance any of the debt as rates go down. The terms are pretty good. The unfortunate thing is that Twitter has no nuance, so people say, “Venture debt bad.” But as with all things, there are specific tools and areas where you can be deliberate instead of using one tool as a hammer. Venture capital is not the hammer for everything. You have to explore and figure out what works.Swyx [00:21:12]: VC is usually the most expensive financing you can get.Jake [00:21:15]: Yeah. I also think people think about VC incorrectly from a capital-raising perspective. Most people think, “How do I raise as much money as possible from whoever is probably the best I can get at that time?” That’s close to right, but what we’ve tried to do is figure out what unfair advantage we can buy with that equity.Jake [00:21:34]: It’s the most expensive equity you’re going to give away at that point in time, assuming the company keeps getting better. How do you use it to work with someone stellar who complements you? In the seed stage, I had never started a company. Ray Tonsing had good advice, and I could text him all the time. He was really fast. Awesome.Jake [00:22:01]: Then with John and Erica at Unusual, they said, “You roughly know what you’re doing building a product. We’ll mostly leave you alone and be available for advice.” Amazing. Then we got to Series A and the business was an operational tire fire because we didn’t know how to scale a business. Work with Erica, and Jordan is over at Redpoint, so bonus.Jake [00:22:28]: Now we’ve raised from TQ and FPV as we’re moving into enterprises. Every step of the way, we’ve asked: who can we partner with at this specific time to unlock the next section of the journey? I don’t know enterprise sales. As an engineer, I can eyeball what features we might need, and we have wonderful people internally who can help. But you want boardroom dynamics where everyone is aligned and asking, “How do we win this?” instead of bickering about strategy.Data Centers in Space and the Physics of ComputeSwyx [00:23:31]: You had a tweet about data centers in space. Why no data centers in space?Jake [00:23:37]: It’s not “no data centers in space.” My hot take is that I think it is solvable. I’ve just never seen anybody solve it.Swyx [00:23:49]: You said, “How are you going to dissipate that much heat in a vacuum?” You’re making a physics claim.Jake [00:23:55]: I haven’t seen anybody prove how you’re going to dissipate that much heat in a vacuum. It doesn’t mean it’s not possible. It just means nobody has brought it up yet.Swyx [00:24:05]: Astrophage.Jake [00:24:06]: I don’t know what that is.Swyx [00:24:07]: The Martian thing. Okay, you’re very logical.Jake [00:24:09]: It could work. A lot of people are putting the cart before the horse. They say, “We’re going to put data centers in space.” Okay, but how? “We have time to figure it out.” It’s like in The Martian where they ask how they’re going to intercept something and say, “We’ll figure it out.”Swyx [00:24:36]: Making a bet on human invention is weird because you blind trust that it can be solved. But with physics, there are first-principles bounds you can put on it. Maybe not. Maybe you’re asking to travel time or break a fundamental thermodynamic law.Jake [00:24:57]: I don’t know how VCs do this either. How do you know what’s not possible and a grift versus what’s possible but sounds completely insane? “We’re going to put data centers in space.” Coin flip as to which it is, and I guess you’ll know in 10 years. That’s one cycle.What Agents Need: Versioning, Observability, and 1,000x ScaleSwyx [00:25:23]: Moving back to agents. The branching, fast spin-up, and orchestration you do feels like pre-work that happened to be exactly what agents want. What do agents want differently than humans?Jake [00:25:37]: They want the ability to version things. It’s not that different; it materializes slightly differently. Agents want a way to test changes incrementally. Engineers have feature flags. Is there a reason agents can’t use feature flags? I don’t think so.Jake [00:25:54]: They want version control. Can we use Git or not Git? That one is up in the air. I think something outside Git will emerge for how we version these things over time. They need observability. You need to query what happened, when it happened, which steps failed, traces, logs, metrics, and all the rest. They need network, compute, and storage. They need to write files, save files, iterate on files, and snapshot file systems.Jake [00:26:25]: A lot of what humans needed is in line with what agents need. Branching and forking are not different; we’re just moving 1,000 times quicker. It can look like you need something massively different, but what you need is something massively better than what existed. You need orchestration massively better than Kubernetes. You need networking probably better than Envoy. It goes all the way down the stack.Jake [00:26:55]: If the workload profile doesn’t change so much as it gets massively compressed because you need thousands of these things, what assumptions change? etcd is going to melt. You need to replace it with something. You can go all the way down the stack and say, “That part has to change, that part has to change, and that part has to change.”Jake [00:27:19]: The interesting thing about the super-exponential curve is that you have to build systems where you can rip out those parts at any time because a new bottleneck might emerge. You get good at parallel agents, and a different part of the system breaks. So it’s similar to what humans needed, but at 1,000x scale.Jake [00:27:55]: How do you do code review in the age of agents?Swyx [00:28:00]: You throw more agents at it.Jake [00:28:01]: You don’t. But then who reviews for CVEs and all these other things?Swyx [00:28:07]: More agents.Jake [00:28:08]: And that’s how we hit the inference wall. You can continually throw agents at the problem, but I think there’s a limit to the number of agents you can throw at a problem.CLI, Agent Handles, and Closing the LoopSwyx [00:28:24]: You already had a CLI before it was cool. How is the shape of what you’re exposing changing, if at all?Jake [00:28:28]: CLIs have always been cool. The CLI changes because we think about how to give Claude, Codex, ChatGPT, or any model a handhold.Jake [00:28:50]: A CLI is a single command: deploy, get logs, and so on. Things that were prohibitively annoying to humans are not annoying to agents. They’re nice. If I handed you a CLI with 40 arguments and 600 flags, you’d think, “I’m never going to use all of this.” But if you hand it to an agent, it says, “This is excellent. I have so many handles to work with.”Jake [00:29:24]: If you’re going to expose things to agents that way, you want as many handles as possible where they can get information, query dynamic information, and close the loop quickly. Most problems right now are about how to close the loop as quickly as possible. Where does the agent get stuck, and how can you remove that?Jake [00:29:49]: Telemetry is important. If you can tell where the agent gets stuck from the CLI and say, “12% of people deviate from the happy path because of this, and now I add this argument and drive it down to 2%,” you massively increase the rate of loop closure.Jake [00:30:03]: That’s how we think about not just the CLI, but every point in the dashboard. It’s a user journey: I hear about Railway. I get something deployed. I get my first green build or aha moment. I see an endpoint, logs, whatever. Then I iterate. The iteration loop is indefinite. The user wants to deploy a new thing, a Postgres instance, change code, and keep iterating.Jake [00:30:36]: If you focus on the iteration loops and what’s blocking them from closing quickly, one thing we say internally is: you never want to be waiting on compute anymore. You always want to be waiting on intelligence. If you’re waiting on compute, there’s a bottleneck that needs to be destroyed because eventually that bottleneck becomes so large that another workflow emerges to change it.Jake [00:31:04]: We’ve built a product where you push code, build it, and so on. But I fundamentally believe the push-pull loop is going away. We’ll get to a point where you make a small change in production, that change is versioned across your infrastructure, you’re working alongside copy-on-write versions of your database and infrastructure, and then you merge it in and it’s instantaneously live. That’s the holy grail of loops. The push-pull-rebuild thing is a point of friction that we’re removing entirely.Canvas as Output: Dashboards, Context Anchors, and HyperstructuresSwyx [00:31:43]: It’s incredibly fast. If anyone hasn’t tried it, that fast feedback is great. My hot take is that Railway was famous for its canvas, which visualizes your infrastructure and lets you manipulate it visually. But that was for humans. For the next phase of growth, Railway CLI is more important than canvas.Jake [00:32:05]: The canvas is funny because it’s a mechanism to show changes over time. You’re right that previously we used it a lot as an input. Moving forward, its goal is more like an output. You would go to the canvas, make changes, see them, and watch your infrastructure evolve. Now agents have access to the CLI and can make those changes. So the canvas becomes an output: what information does the human need at this moment to make suitable decisions about control requests? Do I approve this or not?Jake [00:32:57]: It also has to be an anchor for your context, a port in the storm. Think of it like layers in a file system. You start with a project, then drill down into services, then into a function or code, because you want to represent the entire thing not just in your head, but in the canvas. Other people can share that representation, think on the same wavelength, and move quickly.Jake [00:33:33]: A lot of organizations get in trouble as they scale because all the context lives in someone’s head. “How does this microservice work?” “I have no idea; go ask this person.” Then you have whole categories of products built around context discovery. A lot of that melts away if you have a solid hierarchy and can infinitely nest services, code, context, and everything else all the way down. That’s what lets you build these structures over time.Jake [00:34:18]: It’s also what lets us build what I’ve called hyperstructures: things that are way bigger. You look at the Golden Gate Bridge and ask, “How did we build that?” There’s a meme that we lost the technology. To some extent, yes, because the coordination that built those things evolved and changed. We lost some of the art of building structure as we jammed everything into Slack.Swyx [00:34:52]: But you jam everything in Discord.Jake [00:34:53]: Same point. It doesn’t matter. It’s message passing and interrupts, message passing and interrupts.Swyx [00:35:00]: So you’re arguing there should be something better and more structured than Slack?Jake [00:35:04]: Yeah. For sure. I think Slack is awful, and Discord is awful too.Central Station: Context Routing, Support, and Incident ClustersSwyx [00:35:09]: This is the equivalent of my mom test. What have you done that has your solution to this?Jake [00:35:15]: Internally, we’ve built a tool called Central Station that aggregates all the context from our users. Every piece of feedback, every customer support item, everything gets aggregated into clusters. If an incident is brewing, we can determine how many users are affected and break off a discussion based on that.Jake [00:35:40]: That is more helpful than long-running channels where you’re trying to decide which channel to put something in. If you can dynamically aggregate information and dynamically route it to the right person based on context, it works better. We know internally that these four people are close to networking. If we see a networking thing, we can drill it down to those four people. If it’s with this part, we can look at the commits. This is no longer a manual process internally.Jake [00:36:13]: If you go to station or help.railway.com, that’s why we built it. We wanted to scale with a massive amount of leverage by aggregating feedback.Swyx [00:36:27]: This is built in-house?Jake [00:36:28]: Yep.Swyx [00:36:29]: I remember helping out on this one with Angelo in 2023. You scale a lot with a very small team.Jake [00:36:38]: Yeah. We’re about 10 times bigger now.Swyx [00:36:40]: You have your full developer code here? Very cool.Jake [00:36:44]: If you go to railway.com/stats, we expose this as a pub-sub-able thing. It’s all real-time metrics. There’s a way to get it as JSON somewhere if you care.Jake [00:37:01]: We’re big on trying to build everything in public and talk about what we’re working on. We’ve had issues in the past, and we’ll say, “Here’s how we’re fixing these things.” We’ve gotten compliments and flak for incident reports. We’re always trying to make them better and talk with people.Incidents, Disclosure, and Progressive RolloutsSwyx [00:37:20]: You had a big one recently. I liked that it was scoped to 3,000. You presumably used Central Station. Talk through what happened and how you address it internally as a team.Jake [00:37:38]: Internally, this one really sucked. It had to do with an upstream provider that didn’t do the behavior it said it documented, which is unfortunate given they wrote the RFC for how the behavior should work. We rolled those things out, and Central Station caught it initially when a couple users said caches weren’t invalidating. We turned it off immediately.Jake [00:38:03]: When you roll out to a large user base of three million people, you get a lot of disparate behaviors. We tested in staging and had tests, but we hit an edge case. We’ve hardened those systems, and now we can make that better. But it was a tough one.Swyx [00:38:39]: I always wonder how private disclosure is supposed to work if people find an issue. Are they supposed to contact you first? When you run a platform, these things will happen. What channels should people pursue to quietly resolve it before it becomes a bigger incident?Jake [00:38:59]: There’s responsible disclosure. We err on the side of over-disclosing and letting you know something is wrong versus having your provider gaslight you. We’ve erred on sharing those things more publicly, even if they impact a small subset of users. That’s a decision we’ve made internally. We have four values. One is honor. The honorable thing is to notify people to the widest degree at which they may have been affected or there was an issue, and then confront it head-on: why did it happen, what can we do better?Swyx [00:39:45]: Not the whole user base. That’s because of incremental rollouts and other things?Jake [00:39:50]: Yeah. Progressive rollouts.Swyx [00:39:54]: That should be the norm at all large platforms.Jake [00:39:58]: It should. A variety of companies do this. There’s the quote that Meta runs 10,000 different versions of Meta. To our earlier point about agents, they need the same thing. They need shadow traffic and all these other things. We’ve built so much ceremony around production being sacred that we need to make it trivially easy to test different behaviors in a safe environment. Then you can make mistakes in a safe environment.Safe AI SRE: Customer Agents, Forked Environments, and Production ParityAlessio [00:40:30]: Do you see a world where these things get automatically caught, not necessarily by your agent, but by your customer’s agent? The cache invalidation issue seems easy to check if you know to look for it.Jake [00:40:44]: It’s hard because to determine it, we almost need to hook into your observability infrastructure. That’s why we have the template loop on the platform: so you can roll things out progressively. You can roll out to Johnny Vibe Coder initially, or push a shard that someone consumes at their own leisure. Or you can roll it out over weeks: 0.1% of people, 1% of people, early adopters, then all the way up. That’s the non-deterministic version control we talked about earlier.Jake [00:41:30]: I believe that’s where most things should go, because most companies end up building staged rollout systems in-house. It’s the same thing built again and again at every company. There’s a massive opportunity to consolidate developer debt.Alessio [00:41:45]: You should have a free tier. Model providers give free tokens if you let them use the data. You could give free compute if someone is the number-one shard that goes out and lets you plug into their observability.Jake [00:41:55]: We do that. That’s why we talked about the impact on 3,000 people. We start with lower-impact people. Larger companies on the platform are last to receive those rollouts so they have a version of the platform that’s deeply stable.Alessio [00:42:16]: I have three services, so I’m sure I get the first rollout. You can nuke my thing at any time. There are all these SRE agent companies. Observability people also want agents that fix upstream problems. You have your own agent in the canvas now. How do you see that playing out?Jake [00:42:39]: It’s the stacking entropy problem. If you don’t have primitives to make iteration in production safe, it becomes difficult. If you’re an observability provider saying, “Here’s the fix to this error,” assume 80% are good and make sense. But in the last 20% long tail of complex issues, if you let somebody stamp it, you create an opportunity for an incident.Jake [00:43:08]: That’s why forked environments are important. People have staging, but it always drifts from production. You need primitives, workflows, and experience built first-party on the platform so you can fork any service at any point in time.Jake [00:43:33]: I think of the canvas as a sheet of transparency paper. The agent is a little guy you push up into the canvas. It should say, “I need to copy that service and that service so I can test these two things.” It gets a read-only copy of production. Anything that’s PII gets marked as a transform when we clone the database, create a copy-on-write version, or read from it. Then the agent makes changes and asks, “Does this actually work?” as close to production as possible.Jake [00:44:22]: That’s how close you have to be, or you get massive drift. The system becomes unstable. You see this with massive systems built on Docker for local, Kubernetes for production, and a specific thing for something else. That complexity slows developers and becomes unstable at scale, making it hard to iterate. We want to compress that way down and say, “As close to prod as possible is where we want to be.”From AISRE Skeptic to Agent BelieverSwyx [00:45:00]: I was texting Erica for questions, and she says you were originally not a believer in AISRE. Have you come around on it?Jake [00:45:10]: I flipped, but I’m still not a believer in AISRE if you don’t have the primitives to make it safe. If you unleash AISRE on production infrastructure without safe primitives for copying volumes and making sure things are fine, it’s going to nuke your production database. It’s not a matter of if, but when. I’m a big believer in making those loops safe.Jake [00:45:33]: I was a deep AI skeptic until 2023. In 2024, I thought, “Maybe I can roughly make this thing do it.” In 2025, I thought, “Now I can hold this.” Over winter break, everybody came back saying, “It’s almost impossible to hold this.”Swyx [00:46:01]: Did you see this on the Claude docs? CloudBot? OpenCloud?Jake [00:46:06]: It’s gotten to a point where it’s harder to hold it wrong than to hold it right. There’s a scene in Avengers where Vision picks up Thor’s hammer and says it’s terribly well-balanced. It self-balances and works well. I’m a deep believer at this point that this will be the dominant species: assembly, C, C++, JavaScript, words.Swyx [00:46:35]: It feels like a big jump.Jake [00:46:37]: It is. But it’s not like you abandon CPU-based discrete logic and move straight to fuzzy logic. You need both. Your skills should call code or applications or some static structure. You can use skills to distill what the procedure should be or how the code should act.Jake [00:47:02]: I’m coming to a thesis: you need three points. You need a clear spec defining the system, the code, and the tests. When you say it out loud, if you’ve been in engineering long enough, you’re like, “Of course. That’s an RFC, tests, and code.” But they all matter. Having them together lets them reinforce each other: the spec and tests match, but the code doesn’t, so reconcile it. Or the tests and code match but the spec doesn’t, so reconcile that. That’s the iteration loop.Jake [00:47:41]: That’s why you’re seeing people talk about software factories, docs, and reconciliation. Some of that is architectural astronomy if you don’t implement it, but that loop is where most things will end up.Swyx [00:48:07]: For listeners, we’ve been talking about this on the pod for three years: the holy trinity of specs and tests. Itamar Friedman from Qodo is the reference if people want to look it up.Self-Modifying Infrastructure and the End of Push-Pull-RebuildSwyx [00:48:18]: One thing I want to mention on the OpenCloud idea is self-modification. I don’t know how Railway would support it, but I have my OpenClaw, and I just tell it it has the Railway CLI and can do whatever. In theory, whatever capabilities or new infra it needs, it can call the Railway CLI, provision it, and add it to itself. The agent can modify its own infra.Jake [00:48:45]: It’s nuts. I have a loop set up where you put the Railway CLI on top of something that runs on Railway. You’re authenticated as whatever the current box is, and you can make any changes to it. Then you call Railway deploy, and it deploys itself.Jake [00:49:04]: It’s like: “I need to spin up this instance of this environment. I already exist in this environment. Excellent, I have access to a Postgres instance now.” That’s where we want to go with agentic, self-replicating infrastructure. That’s your loop: iterate in production. You continue making changes. If it works, merge it upstream. If it doesn’t, throw it away.Jake [00:49:37]: How do you make throwaway copies trivial to spin up and super cheap? The era of “I have an AWS instance with four vCPU and 16 gigs of RAM” is going to get destroyed. If you do that for agents, you need a thousand of those machines. It’s prohibitively expensive compared with what we’ve spent a ton of time figuring out: the atomic unit of deploy, whether you call it isolates, sandboxes, or something else. Only pay for what you use, spin up instantaneously, and close the loop as quickly as possible.Jake [00:50:15]: If the system can self-replicate safely and say, “This is my environment, I’m making these changes,” it can come back with, “Does this look good? This is a new state of infrastructure given this prompt. I think I’ve solved it.” Then you go back and say, “Actually, it looks different.” It does the loop again. Then you say, “Cool. Apply.”Swyx [00:50:38]: That’s retroactively obvious, which is the most useful kind. Any other comments on agent deployment on Railway?Jake [00:50:51]: It’s getting better every day. I’m on X or Twitter. You can always yell at me about the parts not working as well as they should, because plenty of things should work way better.The New Serverless: Stateful, Long-Running, Pay-for-What-You-Use LinuxSwyx [00:51:04]: At this stage, when people want massively or embarrassingly parallel compute, they usually talk serverless. I feel like there’s a new serverless compared to the previous five years of serverless. You’re in that new bucket. Do you have comparisons or philosophical differences you want to call out?Jake [00:51:31]: It’s somewhere in between. It’s the ability to run stateful, long-running workflows or executions.Swyx [00:51:42]: Vercel has Fluid Compute, Cloudflare has some container thing, Google has App Runner and others.Jake [00:51:55]: That’s where everything is roughly going, and it’s why we’ve been working on this for six years. We believe users need access to a computer: a box that speaks Linux. They need to deploy what they want. Other systems change the surface area of what you can build. For us, users need a computer and need to deploy anything they truly want. That’s why we’ve focused on the primitives: network, compute, storage. If we give you those and expose them so you can run things indefinitely, that’s where we believe it’s going.Jake [00:52:43]: Twitter has no nuance, so everyone says “servers” or “serverless.” It’s always somewhere in the middle: I want to run it for a long time, but I don’t want to provision the resource statically or pay for things I’m not using. That’s been our thesis from day one: pay only for what you use, run it indefinitely, and it is full Linux.Swyx [00:53:12]: That’s why I like the naming of Fluid. It’s fluid. Flexible.Heroku, Focus, and Carrying the Torch Without Becoming the PastSwyx [00:53:18]: Another milestone is the Heroku official deprecation. You’re one of the presumptive new Herokus. “New Heroku” has been a category for as long as I’ve been in developer tooling. It’s finally happening. What was that like? Any behind-the-scenes of, “This is the moment”?Jake [00:53:42]: You have people where you’re like, “You were running stuff on here? You, as this company?” It’s crazy that names you would know are running on it and now coming to us saying, “We want to move a lot of this off.”Swyx [00:54:00]: Any behind-the-scenes on why Salesforce let Heroku stagnate?Jake [00:54:05]: I can only guess. It’s hard when it’s not your business. Salesforce’s business is to build a great CRM. That’s their focus. Then you acquire a compute business as an offshoot. A lot of early Meta people talk about focus. Boz has a write-up about how in the early days of Meta they had no money, so they were forced to focus. Then they turned on the money tree and had no reason not to split their focus.Jake [00:54:52]: But that dilutes your product. You get offshoots where you ask, “Is this the focus of the business?” If it’s not core, it languishes. A lot of companies get in trouble when they split focus because they’re fighting a multi-front war, not just externally but internally for alignment. Where are we going? What are we doing? What is our purpose?Jake [00:55:24]: If you’re Salesforce-built and mission-driven, you want to work on Salesforce. Heroku is off to the side. It’s not core to the business. Getting resources, budget, focus, and alignment internally becomes hard. It was a matter of time.Swyx [00:56:06]: Kudos for them to call it out instead of leaving it unknown.Jake [00:56:12]: Their release was a little odd. They called it out, but they didn’t say they were shutting it down. Behind the scenes, I think they issued messages to people saying they should close accounts and that they were going to deprecate and remove things over time.Jake [00:56:30]: It’s crazy because some of my first deployment experiences were on Heroku. You start with dragging things into an FTP server, then you try to get a deploy working, and then it’s Heroku. It was the on-ramp for us. But the wheel turns. New things emerge. We’re happy to carry the torch for a lot of that. But we don’t want to be the new Heroku. We want to be the way people build and deploy software, and ultimately the way people monetize software over time.Swyx [00:57:19]: It’s still a big crown to be the new Heroku. There are 50 companies that fought for that.Jake [00:57:23]: Everybody is holding some portion of it. We’re happy to support people and companies. The platform works differently. The game loop is similar, but we’ve been dogmatic about where these things are going: primitives, agents, fan-out. Some things fit; some workflows need to change. We have an approximation of Heroku pipelines with the environment system. It’s exciting. We’ve got a ton of people we can support, and it’s growing a lot.Temporal, Workflow Engines, and State MachinesSwyx [00:58:12]: I have one more technical question about Temporal. I’ve sold my shares. You’re a power user and one of our earliest customers. I met you through Temporal. You built on Temporal. You have complaints. This may be the most neutral and informed conversation anyone will hear about Temporal without someone working at the company.Jake [00:58:39]: That’s fair. I’ve used Temporal for almost 10 years because of Cadence at Uber.Swyx [00:58:52]: Give people a sense of what Cadence was at Uber.Jake [00:58:57]: Cadence was the precursor to Temporal. It powers trip actions, rides, when you rent a Jump bike or scooter or car. You’re running workflows for a period of time and saying, “This ride will run indefinitely until it finishes.” You attach information: you paused in this zone, so add this charge to the bill. When you end the trip, the workflow is done. That experience was powered by Cadence at the time.Swyx [00:59:34]: I used to say it’s like programming the entire user journey top-down as one function.Jake [00:59:39]: It’s a powerful idea and important. It’s also important for the next phase of the agentic journey. You want an agent to do a specific task, be complete or incomplete on that task, and move on to the next thing. You need a way to manage workflows dynamically.Jake [00:59:59]: Temporal was always great in theory, and great when you got it working the way you wanted in production. But it required you to model the entire journey in your head. If you didn’t, you could cause issues where replaying the state of the workflow causes non-determinism.Swyx [01:00:25]: Because it works on deterministic workflow history.Jake [01:00:28]: Exactly. I describe it as a jet engine. If you know how to operate it and run it, it’s great. But you can’t hand it to people trying to build complicated things if they don’t have the whole state in their head.Jake [01:00:48]: We run our whole deployment pipeline on top of it. That’s a reasonably complicated workflow: pre-commit hooks, signaling, queuing, and all the rest. We ran into the same thing at Uber. As you express a large workflow, it gets more complicated, with more states in the state machine that you have to map back to the workflow.Swyx [01:01:15]: It’s a lot of ifs.Jake [01:01:16]: Exactly. At Uber, we built a system for doing the state machine and testing it. We’ve started to build some of those things here because it’s grown heavily. It’s not quite love-hate. When it works well, it works super well. But if someone who doesn’t have full context puts something into the system that invalidates state or causes non-determinism, or spins off a ton of activities, you have to keep track of underlying SRE knobs like activity slots. Those should scale with memory, vCPU, and so on. It becomes a bear to scale.Swyx [01:02:10]: You need a capable sysadmin running things behind the scenes. If you moved off, what would you do?Jake [01:02:19]: We’d build our own workflow engine. We have a few internally that we’ve worked on.Swyx [01:02:27]: This is one of those classes of things you typically wouldn’t vibe code, but I’m wondering if you can.Jake [01:02:33]: I still don’t think you should vibe code it. You still want to run decent tests to make sure it works.Swyx [01:02:39]: Timo didn’t invent that from scratch either. There are libraries you can run. On top of that, it’s just a state machine that you have to map out. Ultimately, you define the instructions you want and run them through a state machine.Jake [01:03:00]: It’s very doable. Workflow stuff is interesting. Restate is doing neat stuff here.Swyx [01:03:10]: You’re tied into JavaScript. Are you a JavaScript maxi?Jake [01:03:13]: Internally, we have TypeScript, Rust, and Go. We don’t add more languages. Actually, we have a little C because we write BPF code and hooks. But those are the languages.Swyx [01:03:28]: Is this for sidecars?Jake [01:03:32]: No. It’s for the networking stack, volumes, and things like that. We use TypeScript a lot because it powers the dashboard, but we’re moving a lot of workflow stuff off the dashboard stack and into the infrastructure stack.Railpack, Nixpacks, and Content-Addressable FilesystemsSwyx [01:04:00]: Cool. Any other technical infrastructure stuff? Railpacks?Jake [01:04:07]: We built an engine for determining dependencies based on source code. It’s called Railpack. We built the first version, Nixpacks, on top of Nix, and then we moved.Swyx [01:04:17]: People have been trying to get me to adopt Nix and NixOS for four years. Is it ever going to be a thing?Jake [01:04:23]: I don’t know. We’re excited about it, but it has pain points. Think of it as a stack of versioned binaries at specific slices in time. If you want version X and version Y, you bloat the package space, which blows up image size and makes real-world workloads difficult.Swyx [01:04:53]: But you content-address it and cache it. In theory, there are optimizations.Jake [01:05:00]: In theory, yes. But with a large enough user base and disparate enough machines, you run into a problem Meta described in the XFAAS paper, their internal serverless system. It becomes difficult at scale unless you break out specific runtimes.Jake [01:05:24]: We didn’t want to do that because we wanted to truly allow you to deploy anything. That was our initial thing with Nix. But we’ve moved toward interesting work around content-addressable file systems that can lazy-load anything from any point and page it into memory.Swyx [01:05:48]: Amazing.Jake [01:05:49]: The future is very bright. It’s crazy, and it’s going to be nuts.Coding Agent Spend, Roadmaps, and Token ROISwyx [01:05:54]: Founder journey stuff?Alessio [01:05:56]: Your cloud usage: you tweeted you’re going to spend $300K this month?Jake [01:06:01]: I think we got to $200K.Alessio [01:06:02]: Coding agents?Jake [01:06:03]: Yeah.Swyx [01:06:04]: Across the company?Alessio [01:06:05]: You only have 35 people, so I’m sure they’re not all spending $10K a month. What’s the distribution?Jake [01:06:10]: I think I’m at about $25K. We have power users all the way down. We came back from winter break, and I basically said, “If you’re writing code by hand, you’re doing this wrong.” The tools are good enough now that you can move extremely quickly. There are issues and pain points, but you should be reviewing the code you are writing instead of writing it by hand.Jake [01:06:40]: Architectural patterns matter more now than ever, but you shouldn’t spend your time generating code you would write. If you know how to write it, ask the agent to write it and reconcile it until it looks like you would have written it yourself.Jake [01:06:58]: People misconstrue my propensity to push people toward agents as connected to our growth and some reliability bumps. They’re not necessarily related. The tools are good enough to move extremely quickly and build things way larger than you could before.Jake [01:07:19]: To the earlier point about cooling data centers in space: I don’t know. But with software, you can ask, “How would I build block storage from scratch? How would I do these things?” I have ideas because I have history and have read papers. Let me work them out and build massive test benches with thousands of tests, because those are now free to author. If you’re not using AI systems to speed-run your roadmap and reconcile your existing system onto the future, you’re missing a large point of what’s happening.Alessio [01:08:12]: What’s the path to spending $3 million a month? Is it bound by ideas and things customers can absorb?Jake [01:08:19]: For most companies, it’s bound by deployment at this point. That’s why we’ve seen a massive boom in users and companies, from Fortune 50s down, asking how to get developers to move faster. You’ll probably hit your CFO before any technical limits because they’ll look at the eye-watering amount of money spent on tokens. Inference costs have to come down, but we’re inference constrained now. There will be price discovery around what makes sense for an org to adopt.Jake [01:09:06]: I think you’ll end up with the F1 driver concept. If someone is really adept at these things, it makes sense to put them in a $3 million car. If they’re not, it probably doesn’t make sense. You’ll take a few people and say, “You can drive the F1 car. We need to go in this direction. Figure out if it works and prototype it.”Jake [01:09:33]: We’ve done some of that and vastly accelerated our roadmap. We thought we’d ship something in a few years; now we can probably ship it in a few months because we validated it and don’t have to build it incrementally. We can skip steps and move toward our vision.Alessio [01:09:58]: A lot of people are realizing the roadmap doesn’t always have a business impact, so they say tokens are too expensive. But if your roadmap were built to make more money by the time you built it, you’d have token pricing for it, the same way you do with sales. You’d spend a billion dollars on sales if you knew you would get $2 billion of revenue.Jake [01:10:19]: Exactly. A naive way to measure this is the percentage of tokens that end up in production. If you can measure impact because those tokens end up in production, that’s awesome. But the burden of proof will rise. Internally, we have a growing number of pull requests that haven’t merged. The question becomes: how do you get this into production? It’s about how quickly you can build and deploy software, which is exciting because that’s our whole thing.The SDLC Shift: Prompt Requests, Feature Flags, and Safe RolloutsSwyx [01:10:56]: The SDLC is changing. One thesis is that the pull request is dying. It’s going to be the prompt request. Beyond that, code review is also kind of dying if you have all the other systems in place. What else is changing about the SDLC?Jake [01:11:19]: The AISRE and the tools to make it happen. AISRE is pie-in-the-sky aspirational. What does it take to get an AISRE? What tools do you need to build?Swyx [01:11:32]: You should expose your tooling to customers at some point. The Central Station command center.Jake [01:11:39]: We have it for template maintainers. Template maintainers can deploy and maintain templates, and they get feedback. We’re going to expose those things incrementally.Swyx [01:11:51]: Clustering around incidents. Everyone has a version of that, but I don’t think anyone has solved it.Jake [01:11:56]: I won’t say we’ve solved it internally, but it’s gotten so good that we can see incidents forming pretty quickly. At some point, those will be things either someone else builds or we build. We’ve always built things purpose-built for us. If it makes sense to make it useful for users, monetize it, or turn that loop into a profit center instead of a cost center, we want to do that.Jake [01:12:28]: Pull request is definitely dying.Swyx [01:12:29]: Do you do first-party feature flagging and incremental rollout stuff?Jake [01:12:34]: We have a feature-flagging engine we built internally and will eventually roll out.Swyx [01:12:38]: I don’t see it as a user. How come you didn’t give us what you have?Jake [01:12:43]: We have to beta test it. We care a lot about the quality of the things. There’s plenty we’ve used internally that doesn’t make it all the way through the journey because it fails. It works for one service but not multiple services. We’d have to build it for multiple services and know that if we released it, we’d rebuild it again and again. Some things are worth that, but many inform the roadmap.Jake [01:13:18]: We don’t want to dilute the experience by saying, “This works, but only for this service,” unless it’s a core initiative. Over the next few months, we’ll roll out things that work for a single service, then multiple services, then multiple services across the environment. You have to be deliberate. Otherwise you create broken disparate experiences and support load because people ask how to use the feature.Jake [01:13:52]: It’s the earlier expansion and compaction pattern. You expand the company to get features, then compact and smooth them out so the experience is stellar. You told me in the hallway, “It’s gotten so much better.” Internally we’re saying, “This part really sucks. We need to make it significantly better.”Swyx [01:14:11]: I can attest to that over the last three years watching you build Railway. For listeners, feature flagging is a huge part of Uber culture. So much so that they have too many feature flags and another thing to remove feature flags. Facebook has Gatekeeper. Agents are going to need this. It’s fundamental to incremental rollouts. OpenAI acquired Statsig. GPT-5 is routing and flagging through different models.Jake [01:14:56]: It’s super important. If the software development lifecycle is going to change because we’re doing things 1,000 times faster and 1,000 times more concurrently, what becomes important at scale?Jake [01:15:16]: Before I started Railway, I built a feature-flagging product and tried to sell it. It was an easier version of LaunchDarkly. I ran into a problem: anyone small enough to adopt your technology doesn’t care about feature flags, and anyone large enough to need feature flags needs so much scale that you have to build out all the infrastructure. I scrapped it.Jake [01:15:42]: But what is old is new again. Companies are trying to move quickly, but you can’t YOLO a vibe-coded thing straight into production. You need to say, “Here’s my blast radius, my impact, and I want to shadow it for these users.” Feature flags. You’re going to need the tools larger companies built to maintain their structures. Everything gets compressed by 1,000x so everybody can build those structures quickly.Jake [01:16:07]: That’s exactly where we are: compressing the software development lifecycle, then expanding it and adding more new things.Cattle, Pets, and Clonable InfrastructureSwyx [01:16:15]: Another term that comes to mind for newer developers is “cattle, not pets.” People treat production like a pet. It has a name. You baby it and keep it alive. With cattle, you can mass farm, roll out, portion parts out, and kill them.Jake [01:16:37]: I think that might change. You can move toward having pets as long as you have a cloning machine for your pets.Swyx [01:16:52]: Yeah.Jake [01:16:52]: If you can snapshot every single thing at every frame, it doesn’t matter if something gets obliterated because you have a snapshot of it. The things we’ve built right now are designed to block changes from the hermetically sealed DevOps line. You have to write a Dockerfile because you need a specific cut of the file system.Jake [01:17:14]: What if you had the whole file system? What if you snapshot it and lazily load the entire file system? Then you get around this problem entirely. You don’t need the ceremony of Dockerfiles, Ansible scripts, or other things. You can iterate, snapshot, ask if it’s the right loop or state, and then merge it into production. Merge the file system.Swyx [01:17:45]: Why not?Jake [01:17:46]: It’s going to be fun.Swyx [01:17:47]: This is a whole other can of worms, but if you cataloged the stateful things in a VM and developed dedicated solutions for each, you can cut the problem down a lot. It’s surprising people weren’t trying until now.Jake [01:18:04]: It has always been surprising to me because these are the things we would work on. It’s obvious.Swyx [01:18:11]: At first principles, you need them. Everyone needs them in theory. Then the big clouds don’t do them, so you assume it’s impossible.Jake [01:18:18]: Exactly. You think, “Meta has all the people writing eBPF code, and they’re doing something with them.” But you need that kind of work to solve these problems. Whatever is required, however deep we have to go, we’ll go all the way down to the kernel’s TCP/IP stack if needed. If we need to modify something to make it work for the mental model of the universe moving forward, we’ll do it and keep going down.Swyx [01:18:52]: That sounds fun.Jake [01:18:53]: It’s so much fun. I have to peel myself away from fun, interesting problems to make sure we can scale the company in a way that works. There are so many fun problems: getting information from customers to support to the person who built the thing internally, safe iteration, context from the dashboard to users, drilling down to the infrastructure layer, and managing orchestration as a real-time operating system versus a feedback control system. It’s just so fun.Solo Founder Lessons: Obsession, Writing, and FocusSwyx [01:19:29]: Speaking of the founder side, you’re famously outside the YC/SF consensus. You go to YC, get a co-founder, and do all these things. You did none of that.Jake [01:19:40]: None.Swyx [01:19:45]: In the elevator you said a co-founder makes sense if one person is the tech person and the other is the biz dev person. But you have to contain those multitudes yourself. How do you do it?Jake [01:19:58]: I try to get eight hours of sleep.Swyx [01:20:11]: Is there a balance: 50/50, 30/30/30? What’s the mental model as a solo founder?Jake [01:20:17]: There’s no balance. You have to think about all these things and be obsessed with them. Be obsessed with how people think about your product from a go-to-market perspective, and be obsessed with the kernel-level change that makes a user’s SSH connection never drop. I want a universe where you can snapshot everything and it feels like iterating on a VM.Jake [01:20:47]: You have to be obsessed at every layer of the stack. That’s what makes it easier for me. Some people are obsessed with different portions of the company journey, and if you can segment those lines well and be clear about ownership, you’ll have a good time.Jake [01:21:12]: I said two is the worst number of co-founders because you have no tiebreak. You disagree, and how do you resolve it?Swyx [01:21:38]: Usually someone is CEO, so they have the tiebreaker.Jake [01:21:43]: Totally. It’s hard every way you cut it. It’s hard if you get help, and it’s hard if you do it yourself. Running things is hard, but it’s so rewarding and fun.Swyx [01:21:56]: What have you found useful? A coach? Any advice that has been helpful?Jake [01:22:01]: I like to write a lot. I get in trouble a lot for my Twitter. I once said if you’re working weekends, you’re messing up your planning. I’ve gone back and forth on that because right now we’re at an extenuating time where it makes sense to work more. The goals are clear in my mind. If you have the vision and know where you’re going, work harder to distill that vision and do those things.Jake [01:22:33]: If you’re not certain and need clarity, disconnect and take your weekends seriously. Write about where you are, what you want to do, where you want to go, and what problems you’re solving.Jake [01:22:56]: Writing is important. I don’t love the word meditation, but whatever gets you into mental clarity is important when you’re trying to say, “We’re here and need to be here,” or “We’re here and I think we need to be in this general space for this to work.”Jake [01:23:22]: Disconnect, hang out with people you love, and work hard when you’re working. I try to work sunup to sundown, Monday to Friday, all out. I disconnect on Saturday and come back Sunday afternoon to write, plan the week, and do everything else. It works well for me.Jake [01:23:43]: Another hot take: most advice should be digested and thrown out the window. If it’s helpful, it’ll come back. You’ll learn it through experience. We have made failure very expensive as a society, and it makes it difficult for people to walk off the paths.GPUs, Focus, and the Dominant Role of AgentsSwyx [01:24:03]: Anything you haven’t tweeted and gotten in trouble with that you want to preview to the world?Jake [01:24:12]: The agent stuff is crazy. It’s going to be the dominant way people do pretty much everything, provided we can get the inference required for that to happen. Over the next 10 years, you’ll see a fundamental shift in how people think about authoring the logic in their head.Swyx [01:24:36]: One way of phrasing it is: if Allbirds can become a GPU provider, so can Railway.Jake [01:24:44]: I think there’s a lot of “everyone becomes a GPU provider” that is actually not becoming a GPU provider. You’re defined more by the things you don’t do than the things you do, because it’s easy to say yes to a lot of things.Jake [01:24:56]: Anthropic is amazing and moving into different zones. They’re moving into Figma-like things.Swyx [01:25:09]: As we’re recording, Mike Krieger was on Figma’s board, they removed him Monday, and then they launched this today.Jake [01:25:18]: Things move fast right now. But agents are going to be the way people operate.Swyx [01:25:25]: So your answer is focus: no GPUs for now, but never say never.Jake [01:25:27]: Focus. We will not do GPUs now, but we 100% will do GPUs at some point in the future. That’s not me leaking our roadmap because we don’t have plans to do GPUs. It’s just a function of needing FLOPS at some point. If you’re fully vertically integrated and want to make it trivial for people to iterate, build, and deploy, you need access to this core piece of fundamental logic.A New Cloud From First PrinciplesSwyx [01:25:57]: Presumably your own data center traffic is a minority of your workload right now, but is there a point where it’s a majority or you turn off public clouds?Jake [01:26:10]: At some point, we got to 100% data center: our own data centers. Right now, the vast majority of what exists on our platform is on our bare-metal data centers.Swyx [01:26:21]: So you’re already there.Jake [01:26:23]: Yeah. The transition was completed at some point, and then we grew so fast that we had to scale back on that. It got to 100% on the Datadog dashboard and then divoted back into the 90s because we were adding capacity.Swyx [01:26:45]: You’re literally building a new independent cloud, and people assume that could never happen post-AWS.Jake [01:26:53]: It’s hard. We’re going to figure out a bunch of things to make sure the platform is deeply reliable. But you have to break ground on new things when you decide to build a cloud from scratch but not copy the hyperscalers.Jake [01:27:10]: We’ve been deliberate about inventing our own infrastructure from scratch based on reading a ton of papers, while promising ourselves we wouldn’t copy someone else’s homework. If we copy someone else, we lose. You become them over time. You need a core thesis for why this business needs to exist now.Jake [01:27:33]: For us, the activation energy required to deploy something in production on hyperscalers is far too high. We believe it should be instantaneous. There should be no friction between your thought and the reality that comes out and that you can share with friends. That’s what we’re building toward at every layer of the stack. If we have to go down to energy, we’ll go down to energy.Jake [01:27:58]: It matters for giving people access to this tooling. It’s gated not just for citizen developers who are now vibe coding. You have multiple layers: citizen developer, front-end developer, back-end developer, DevOps person, and more. Those layers need to disappear so people can just ship.Swyx [01:28:20]: Amazing. That’s the future of cloud.Jake [01:28:22]: Awesome. Thanks for coming on. Thank you for having me. It’s been wonderful. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• The Autonomous Drone Tech Stack & Economics of Drones — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Guest Host Noah Smith, Noahpinion 18.05.2026 1h 59min

  The future of war has been evolving before our eyes in Ukraine, yet the west still plans to fight the last war. In this special episode, guest host Noah Smith (@noahpinion) and Brandon Anderson sit down with Yaroslav Azhnyuk (@YaroslavAzhnyuk), a serial tech founder who went from building PetCube to founding The Fourth Law, one of the world’s most advanced AI-guided drone companies. Over two hours we cover the technology, tactics, and geopolitics of drone warfare, and why the modern battlefield has already left the West behind:* Yaroslav’s personal history and the Ukraine war [00:01:04 – 00:14:01]* The modern drone tech stack: why FPV drones are the new god of war, the future of the rifleman, fiber optic vs. AI, five levels of autonomy, and the eight dimensions of the autonomous battlefield [00:14:01 – 01:05:13]* The geopolitics and economics of drones: China’s manufacturing advantage, the drone race, Western defense readiness, countermeasures, and why the gap is widening [01:05:13 – 01:58:57]For those looking for Noah Smith’s commentary, it really gets going around the 00:51:31 mark.Yaroslav Azhnyuk / The Fourth Law:* X: https://x.com/YaroslavAzhnyuk* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yaroslavazhnyuk/* The Fourth Law: https://thefourthlaw.aiNoah Smith:* Substack: Noah Smith * X: https://x.com/noahpinionTimestamps00:00:00 Cold Open: China’s 4 Billion Drones and the Cameras-to-Explosives Pipeline00:01:04 Introduction: Brandon, Noah Smith, and Yaroslav Azhnyuk00:05:41 From Tech Entrepreneur to Defense: PetCube, Brave One, and the D3 Fund00:10:42 The Ethics of Building Weapons: Dual-Use Technology and the Wolf at the Door00:14:01 The Tech Stack: Cameras, Autonomy Modules, Interceptors, and a Semiconductor Fab00:18:47 Fiber Optic vs. AI: The Radio Horizon Problem and $32/km Cable00:25:32 FPV Drones: The New God of War — 70–80% of Frontline Casualties00:28:28 The Five Levels of Drone Autonomy: From Terminal Guidance to Full Autonomy00:41:37 The Eight Dimensions of the Autonomous Battlefield00:45:32 AI Safety and the Morality of Autonomous Weapons00:51:31 The End of the Rifleman? Noah’s 2013 Prediction vs. Battlefield Reality01:05:13 China’s Manufacturing Advantage and Western Vulnerabilities01:24:21 Policy Advice for Western Defense: Defense Valley and the Widening Gap01:32:54 The Drone Race: Who’s Ahead, Category by Category01:41:57 Countermeasures: Shotguns, Jammers, Lasers, and Fishnets01:58:19 The Wedding and Final Takeaway: Be Prepared for WarTranscriptCold Open: China, FPV Drones, and the New Warning SignYaroslav [00:00:00]: Think about this. Last year, Ukraine produced 4 million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world. China can produce 4 billion of these FPV drones.Noah [00:00:10]: Would you say that right now China is now the supreme conventional military power on Earth, given its ability to manufacture and deploy drones in the quantity and quality that you just described?Yaroslav [00:00:20]: I don’t think we have all the information to claim that but we cannot count it out, and that alone should be a big warning sign. As I say, at some point in my life I went from making cameras that fling treats to pets to cameras that fling explosives to the occupiers. So that’s the short story. And when you think about what your nation, what your patriots are going through, you realize that’s the only morally right thing to do is to fight back, and it is immoral not to fight back, and then the choice becomes very clear.Introduction: Yaroslav Azhnyuk, Petcube, and the Last Flight into KyivBrandon [00:01:04]: Welcome to Latent Space. I’m Brandon. I normally do science podcasts, but today we’re going to do something a little bit different. I’m joined by Noah Smith of Noahpinion on Substack and Twitter. And he has lots of interesting things to say about drones. And as a guest, we have Yaroslav Azhnyuk, founder of The Fourth Law and several other, drone-related startups. To get started, it is February 23rd, 2022. You are running a pet startup. You’re connecting pets with their owners. Let’s go in just a little bit of background. How did you get started in tech, and what were you working on before the Ukrainian war started?Yaroslav [00:01:50]: Good to be here. Thank you. On February 23rd, late in the evening, 11:00 PM Kyiv time, my wife and I landed in Kyiv. Actually, then she was a fiance. We came from Lviv, where we were looking at a church, where our wedding should have taken place. And we got into this cab ride from the airport to our home, and the driver was like, “You crazy. Like, everyone’s leaving Kyiv. Why do you come?” We’re like, “What? Nothing’s going to happen. Dude, chill.” And then obviously, eight minutes later, or eight hours later, the bombs fell in the city. It was quite surreal. We probably landed on the last flight that landed in Kyiv, or one of those last flights. My background, I’m a tech guy. Studied applied mathematics in Kyiv Polytechnics, born and raised in Kyiv. My parents are old PhDs from academia, and grandparents too. Like, everything, from linguistics to nuclear physics. And I’m an entrepreneur, so I’ve built a bunch of companies. Petcube is the one you were referencing. So I lived in San Francisco 2014 to 2020, building Petcube, which is one of the leading, pet device companies in the world, selling lots of pet cameras. And then, yeah, as I say, at some point in my life I went from making cameras that fling treats to pets to cameras that fling explosives to the occupiers. So that’s the short story.February 24th: Leaving Kyiv as the Invasion BeginsNoah [00:03:28]: February 24th, I guess a few hours after you, go to check out your wedding chapel, what do you do?Yaroslav [00:03:37]: We had a plan for this situation. So my parents and family live in Kyiv, and we’re like, “Okay, this has actually started. The worst has, come true.” And so we basically packed our belongings and got in the car and spent 17 hours driving west. And that was pretty sure most people in our audience watched at least one apocalyptic movie in their life, so that was exactly like that. Like, felt exactly like that. Missiles are falling. Like, there was smoke in Kyiv. Like, my dad and I went, like, to central part of the cities. It’s probably, likeYaroslav [00:04:20]: 800 meters from presidential office, to pick some stuff up at his workplace. Because he’s, like, the head of an academic institution, so he had to get some of the things with him. And super surreal. Like, the streets are empty. Like, the gas stations are out of gas. Like, we found some gas station. We didn’t have, like, spare canisters with us, so we’re like, We figured out, like, the car was diesel, so like, we figured out, if it’s diesel, you can actually store it in plastic, canisters, and we bought some window wash for the cars. We poured it out of the canisters, and we poured the diesel into that. Yeah, so it was like that. And then, like, helping friends get out, like my friend and his dog. Like, we found Like, my brother was also, like, riding in a separate car. We found a place for my friend who didn’t have a car. It was like, yeah, it was like, totally surreal. And we didn’t know of course, and you didn’t know this will last for so long. You didn’t know whether Ukraine will be able to defend Kyiv. And it was like, yeah, very little information and very little insight into future.From Pet Cameras to Defense Tech: Building for Ukraine and the Free WorldNoah [00:05:42]: What are your thoughts with regards to how do you, defend, Ukraine? So you eventually start building drones Like, what is the process to get from there from where you were building, devices that connect owners with pets to building drones, and what other things did you do to help the war effort in the process?Yaroslav [00:06:07]: It’s definitely non-trivial, right? Like, I didn’t go, to I didn’t get any, like, military education when I was a student. Like, normally, in Ukraine, you would, you would go to like, this military school even if you’re getting higher education in any other, sphere. I decided to skip that which is like, an unusual way to go. And I never thought that I will be somehow engaged in a war effort. Like, what is war? Of course, wars are over. It’s the end of history. So one thing you got to understand about, like, many Ukrainians and like, I guess, it’s also true about most of the people I met here in the US, that your who you are in terms of your nationality is a big part of your identity. So when that gets under attack, it’s something deeper than just the country you live in gets under attack, right? And I Day one, I figured I’m going to I’m going to fight back with everything I can, right? But I didn’t think on day one that I’m actually going to do, weapons. And a bunch of things. We were reaching out to a number of American, congresspeople and senators, and basically advocating for support of Ukraine, for voting for lend lease, which has happened in May 2022, but didn’t actually work as expected. We helped start, Brave One, which is now a very important defense innovation cluster, sort of like a DIU here in the US. We helped start, a fund called D3. It’s like, it was started or co-started by Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google. So a bunch of these odd things, but then eventually I was like, “Okay,”by 2023 it was obvious this thing, A is going to last a lot more time, and B, that the whole world is shifting and that there’s going to be a new arms race, that the warfare is redefined by drones as platforms. And for the first time in history, you have a platform that is software defined, that can increase your battlefield capabilities, in a in a step change just overnight. So it’s like if you were able to push a software update and get all of your Roman legionnaires a new helmet? That has never been possible before. It’s the first time in the history of war this is possible. So all of that and many other things like, supply chain fragilization, and the impact that AI is going to have on all of this all these things have become evident to me in 2023, and it’s like, “Okay, I should do what I do best, or what I know how to do best, start a tech company, and sort of leverage the global techno capitalist machine, to provide, defensibility to Ukraine and the free world.” So that’s literally the mission of the company, increase defensibility of Ukraine and the free world. And then there was some sort of soul-searching and like, asking yourself. It’s like, “Okay, am I Actually, I know nothing about weapons. Am I actually, like, ready to make, things that other people use to kill other bad people?”Yaroslav [00:09:36]: When you think about what your nation, what your Compatriots are going through And think about all the terror of places like Bucha, the occupied cities in the east and south, the abducted children, the raped women, all the economic damage that’s being done, and the intention to destroy a whole nation, to genocide the people of Ukraine, you realize that’s the only morally right thing to do is to fight back, and it is immoral not to fight back. And then the choice becomes very clear. And look, we’re just passing the ammunition. We’re not doing the actual job. The actual fighters and defenders and heroes are people in the armed forces. We’re just support.The Moral Question: Weapons, Responsibility, and Fighting BackNoah [00:10:33]: I have so many questions. Actually, I know you seem to have a question. Do you want to ask anything?Yaroslav [00:10:38]: No, I’m just listening. Go ahead.Noah [00:10:40]: I do want to talk about, some of let’s say, the moral issues, like you just said. You endYaroslav [00:10:50]: I think there are no issues there.Yaroslav [00:10:52]: What would an example of a moral question be in this case?Noah [00:10:55]: No, I mean Okay. As you just said, you are creating the tools, but others are using them.Noah [00:11:05]: I was maybe thinking of having this conversation later, but one of the questions is like, is it actually you are going to be building them for your homeland, which you are building it for your homeland, which is I think, very a strong morally defensible position, but this technology is not going to stay with you, right?Noah [00:11:26]: This you will probably be selling these to other people Yeah. So the future is really where the moral issues may come into playYaroslav [00:11:38]: The this question becomes, easier and more complete if we ask this not about a particular technology or particular weapon, if we think that this question actually applies to any kind of technology Right? So -Knife or fire. You can use knife to do surgery and save people’s lives, or you can use it as a weapon to take people’s lives.Noah [00:12:06]: Cut tomatoes, too.Yaroslav [00:12:08]: Cut tomatoes too.Noah [00:12:09]: Yes, knife.Yaroslav [00:12:09]: That’s helpful.Noah [00:12:10]: In Japan, sword and knife, they, call the same word.Yaroslav [00:12:14]: It’s like, it’s with any technology. Large language models, right? Look at how powerful they are and yet they’re available to anyone in North Korea or in Russia.Yaroslav [00:12:29]: That’s one side of the argument. The other side is As a maker, what is your responsibility for how the tools you’re creating, will be used? There’s definitely some responsibility, right? Then How should the decision process look like? Should you, like, try to calculate all the possible scenarios before starting to work on something? Or do you create something that is needed now to save people’s lives, and then think about, addressing the unwanted edge cases later? In ideal world where there’s like, or okay, it’s not ideal world. In a mythical world where there is some one governing party and it gets to decide everything, and there is no other country, that can, decide on their own, you could say, “Well, we need to calculate for all the consequences, and only then, maybe build this building, by replacing this park because, maybe we need this park in the city,”right? So that kind of situation. But when you’re in a situation where you’re in a forest, in front of a wolf, you first going to deal with the wolf that wants to eat you, and then you’re going to go consult Greenpeace. So that’s kind of situation that Ukraine is in.The Fourth Law, Odd Systems, and Ukraine’s Drone StackNoah [00:13:59]: Enough. Because this is a tech podcast, I did want to spend some time talking about, sort of the tech in that you’ve developed and what you’ve been working on. So can you explain, I guess, first of all, like, the problem that you were trying to solve from a technical standpoint? And I think, and then maybe, like, go into some of the solutions and some of the design process that led you from designing, little laser-guided, guiding lasers with a with an iPhone versus Having drones.Yaroslav [00:14:34]: Like, it so happened, that my partners and I, we sort of So I started one company called The Fourth Law, and its goal was and is to Make, massively scalable on-drone autonomy. And then In parallel with that together with my, Petcube co-founders, partners, and friends, we started another company called Odd Systems Which, was focused on making thermal cameras. Cameras, thermal cameras are seeing thermal radiation and are used to see at night. And we’re now sort of those companies are getting closer and closer together and we’re probably going to merge them. And this group of companies is currently the leading, team in on-drone AI and thermal imaging on the Ukrainian battlefield, and Likely one of the leading, if not the leading in the world. So We have these, like, three sort of business units, which are cameras, drone autonomy, and drones. So the cameras and drone autonomy sell daytime and nighttime cameras and different types of drone autonomous modules to other drone manufacturers, over 200 drone manufacturers in Ukraine. And then the UAV, business unit sells the drones themselves to the armed forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian government. And there are different types of drones. Those are sort of front strike, as we call them, so those are sort of FPV strike drones and the bombers, and then interceptors. And there are different kinds of interceptors. We do Shahed interceptors and we do ISR interceptors. We don’t do the deep strike-FPV Drones, Interceptors, and Battery-Powered WarfareNoah [00:16:32]: What’s an ISR interceptor?Yaroslav [00:16:33]: ISR is stands for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and those are basically drones which are which, Russians are using to watch over positions and then communicate where, the targets are coming.Noah [00:16:48]: It’s a reconnaissance.Yaroslav [00:16:48]: That’s, the ISR is sort of a classical term for a for a reconnaissance drone.Noah [00:16:53]: Are all of these battery-powered drones that you just described? ‘Cause I know that the sort of deep strike drones still have, like Some sort ofYaroslav [00:17:01]: Internal combustion engine?Noah [00:17:02]: Internal combustion engine. Are all the things you’re talking about battery-powered?Yaroslav [00:17:06]: What we’re working on is all battery-powered, right? We don’t do the deep strikes, right? And then in terms of autonomy-Noah [00:17:12]: You can catch a Shahed with a battery-powered thing. It’s not Fast to catch.Yaroslav [00:17:17]: No, absolutely. Look, Shahed interceptor, like ours, it’s called Zero, it goes up to 326 kilometers per hour.Noah [00:17:26]: For reference, how fast is a Shahed?Yaroslav [00:17:28]: Eight, like, in internal phase it could be 280, but in cruise phase it’s, like, 220-ish.Yaroslav [00:17:36]: Yeah. And sorry, I’m not like you can convert that into miles if you’re interested.Noah [00:17:41]: No, that’s fine.Noah [00:17:41]: Multiply by two thirds or point six or something.Yaroslav [00:17:44]: That’s easy. Yeah, I was saying that for autonomy modules, right, we, -We make systems, autonomous systems for frontline, for interceptors and some for deep strikes as well, and then different levels of autonomy. So from terminal guidance, which is like lasts 500 meters, give or take, to autonomous bombing, to autonomous target detection, to autonomous navigation and all of that across day and night, different terrains, different time of the year, different platforms like quadcopters and fixed wing, and maybe some other platforms. So it’s quite a wide variety of products. We also have like our own simulation. We have our own training school for the war fighters. And we’re about to start construction of two, semiconductor plants to make, sensors for thermal cameras. So that’s super exciting for me as a computer science guy is Doing semiconductors. Super cool.Noah [00:18:49]: Like in terms of kind of core drone technologies, you basically are one is an FPV replacement without fiber optics, and the other isYaroslav [00:18:59]: YouNoah [00:18:59]: Signal tracking with interceptorsYaroslav [00:19:00]: With or without fiber optics. Fiber optics Is just like, sort of a communication module.Yaroslav [00:19:05]: You can, you can use classical analog, video link and radio link. Those would be two separate radios. You can do digital, or you can do fiber optic, and then fiber optic Has its own advantages but also adds weight and decreases, the distance and decreases, how fast you can, sort of turn and With a drone. Yeah.Noah [00:19:33]: Do you need AI for fiber optic drones?Yaroslav [00:19:36]: Like you can use AI for fiber optic drones. AI replaces a human, right? Fiber optic is making your communication link more resilient. So those are slightly different goals. Like if you want, you can have, AI controlling hundreds of fiber optic drones instead of having 100 operators for each.Fiber Optics, Radio Horizons, and Terminal GuidanceNoah [00:20:03]: I guess I thought that the key reason that people moved to fiber optic drones was for like electronic, countermeasures. Or I guess to counter those.Yaroslav [00:20:13]: I think that’s a correct assessment from sort of a public awareness standpoint. In practice it’s somewhat more difficult Because besides electronic countermeasures, you have these issues of a radio horizon For FPV drones, which means that asYaroslav [00:20:36]: I believe Earth is round Some people disagree. But basically if you fly a drone and you have a land station over here and a drone flying over hereYaroslav [00:20:49]: If your drone is flying high, you have good direct radio visibility. If your drone goes low, and usually, Russian infantry and vehicles, they’re on the ground and you want to hit them, you need to go low. Lower you go, maybe you’ll get behind a hill or behind a forest, and if you’re far enough, you’ll just get behind the curvature of the earth. You get into what’s called a radio shadow. And then That is a real bummer because for the last, be it 60 or 20 meters, you won’t be able to see anything and it will be very difficult to hit the target. So to counter that what-- And then the distances that these FPV drones, act on they’re, they can be quite large. So for example, here in the US there was this drone dominance program competition, and in drone dominance the furthest distance was about 10 kilometers.Noah [00:21:44]: What was drone dominance? What was that competition?Yaroslav [00:21:47]: Drone, the drone dominance is a is a program started, by the US government, to accelerate the development of drone technology here in the US.Noah [00:21:57]: Got it. And the longest range thing they were using was 10 kilometers.Yaroslav [00:22:00]: Was 10 kilometers, right. In Ukraine, like if your drone doesn’t fly at least 20, 25, it just, no one’s interested in it, and the usual hits are happening. It was like, okay, many hits are happening between 30 and 40 kilometers, and that’s what expected from a regular 10-inch, FPV drone. So at that distance, even at altitudes of like 60 to 100 meters, you might start losing, the link. So some of the earlier AI technology that was fielded in FPV drone was this terminal guidance technology. That was the first product that we ever, launched that helped you as an operator, once you see the target from two, three, 500 meters, you lock onto the target and then, it just, drives the drone towards the target no matter what, even after you lost the visual connection. So optic fiber solves that. However, if you want to go like 20 kilometers with optic fiber, that will add an extra three kilos, of useful weight to your drone. SoNoah [00:23:12]: ‘Cause the cable that you have to unspool as you go weighs.Noah [00:23:15]: It is heavy.Yaroslav [00:23:15]: At first, like the spool is about 800 grams, so a bit less than a kilo, and then, and then think about 10, 10 kilometer optic fiber is another kilo, something like that. That takes away from your useful mass and then now you have like, you need a 15-inch drone and it can only carry maybe one or two kilos of explosives if you want to go, 20 kilometers. If you want to go to 30 or 40, like 30 is probably max. 40 is like very problem problematic on optic fiber. And then the problem with optic fiber is it’s actually getting super expensive. So and why? Because of all the data centers for AI. That’s literally the same optic fiber-Noah [00:24:01]: We’re running out of centersYaroslav [00:24:02]: That’s being used there.Yaroslav [00:24:02]: Like when Ukrainians and Russians come to Chinese factories to buy the optic fiber, they’re like, “We’re out. We sold it out to the Americans.”? That’s the craziest thing. So optic fiber went up in price from like, $4 per, kilometer to like, $32 per kilometer in a few months in the beginning of this year. And I’veBrandon [00:24:26]: Claude Code is stopping the Russian drone effort here.Yaroslav [00:24:30]: Ukrainian as well. Yeah.Brandon [00:24:31]: Ukrainian. But I read somewhere that the Russians had grown more dependent on fiber optic drones relative to the Ukrainians, and that’s one reason why the Ukrainians have sort of regained the initiative in drones recently.Brandon [00:24:42]: How accurate’s that?Yaroslav [00:24:43]: The Russians were the first ones to scale that. I think by as of now, Ukraine has caught up. I think, like, as of maybe three months ago, Ukraine is mostly caught up on fiber optic. Yeah.Brandon [00:24:57]: What percent of damage would you say is in terms of FPV drone damage would you say is now fiber optic versus, like autonomous?FPVs as the New God of War: Tanks, Artillery, and Cost per KillYaroslav [00:25:07]: For our, for our audience, I actually, I cannot answer that question. Like, it’s like I know the answer, but I would not disclose that. But for our audience, I think another interesting fact is out of all the casualties on the front line Between 70 and 80% are done by FPV drones.Brandon [00:25:30]: FPV drones are the new weapon of universal weapon of warfare.Yaroslav [00:25:34]: It’sBrandon [00:25:35]: Land warfare, anywayYaroslav [00:25:35]: They used to say that artillery is a god of war because artillery used to cause, like 80% of casualties, and now On that ranking-Brandon [00:25:46]: FPVYaroslav [00:25:47]: FPV drones rule.Brandon [00:25:48]: FPV drones are the god of war.Yaroslav [00:25:51]: Sort of. Dethroned artillery. But it’s not to say that artillery is not useful, is not needed. Like, all of these systems are needed. Maybe except cavalry, although Russians still use it. I know, have you seen the videos of Russians using mules and horses?Brandon [00:26:09]: What is the usefulness-Yaroslav [00:26:10]: It’Brandon [00:26:10]: Of a tank in the in the modern-Yaroslav [00:26:11]: That’s where we need Greenpeace to say a word, but they’re silent. Yeah.Brandon [00:26:15]: What’s the use of a tank on the modern battlefield?Yaroslav [00:26:21]: It’s diminishing.Brandon [00:26:22]: Diminishing.Yaroslav [00:26:22]: However, I think there might be technologies which will, revive the tank. Look, tank still provides you armor, and armor is important. Like, you still need to armor and firepower, right? Like, you can be an armor personal carrier that provides you, armor. The challenge that currently exists is armor is not very well protected against incoming drones. However, there are ways to do to protect it. We were previously talking about this before the podcast. The CEO of Rheinmetall, recently sort of ridiculed, Ukrainian drone industry, saying that like, there is nothing interesting there, no real innovation, no to stand Compared to like, Rheinmetall or Boeing, and it’s all made by housewives. There was like, obviously a ton of memes about this people ridiculing the CEO of Rheinmetall. And one of the best quotes, I heard on this topic is from my friend, Alexey Babenko, who’s, the head of and founder of VIARI Drone, which is one of the largest manufacturers of FPV drones. They’re our partner. They’re using our autonomy. So he said that the drones we manufacture in one day will be more than enough to destroy all the tanks Rheinmetall manufactures in a year.Yaroslav [00:27:52]: Then, yeah, cost-wise, of course, a drone is like, $500 and a Rheinmetall tank is what, probably 5 million-ish or maybe more.Brandon [00:28:00]: Don’t mess with those housewives.Yaroslav [00:28:03]: Drone wives.Brandon [00:28:04]: Drone wives.Yaroslav [00:28:06]: That’s it.Noah [00:28:06]: There’s a classic saying that everyone always fights the last war.Noah [00:28:12]: Yet do How did So from your standpoint, how did we get to the point where tanks became irrelevant in at least for now In a matter of just a few years?Yaroslav [00:28:24]: Look, I think it’s the same way, how do we get to the point that calculators become irrelevant?Yaroslav [00:28:31]: Now we have iPhones. Like, why would you need a calculator? Technology progresses and its influence grows non-linearly. It’s all exponential. So I can tell you that full autonomy, when you put it on a drone Look, so if you, if you think about a tank and a like, it’s not a direct comparison, but even, like, a drone and a artillery shell or like, sort of cost per kill, an artillery shell for 155 caliber, which is a standard NATO caliber Currently market price is about $4,000 per piece. So compare that to say, $400 per drone. That’s 10 times more expensive. Account for the amortization of the artillery gun and for how vulnerable it is and what is the sort of tactical, capabilities it gives you as compared to a drone. You’ll figure out that an FPV drone is maybe three orders of magnitude, more versatile, more useful, more capable than artillery and many of than a classic artillery. Many of Because there are different types of artillery. Not just, like, one 155. You have mortars, you have all that. But give or take, roughly three orders of magnitude maybe. Again, it doesn’t have that firepower. It’s not one-to-one comparison still.Yaroslav [00:29:53]: Now, take that FPV drone. When you put full autonomy on that FPV drone, which can be not very expensive, like systems that we’re, producing are like, in hundreds of dollars of pure bombFull Autonomy: From Human Pilots to Smartphone-Directed Drone MissionsNoah [00:30:06]: Just interrupt. You said full autonomy Just a second ago you were saying that the autonomy here is guidance, right? It’s not decision-making.Yaroslav [00:30:14]: No, I was I was saying that’s the f-First and sort of easiest pieces of autonomy that was fielded by us. But if you, if you add full autonomy to a droneBrandon [00:30:24]: He, I think he’s asking what does it can you, for the listeners, can you explain What the term full autonomy means?Yaroslav [00:30:29]: Basically, I think a good way to think about an FPV drone is like an iPhone of warfare. It’s, like, very inexpensive, very mass producible, very versatile. You don’t need a bunch of other things when you have a iPhone in your pocket. You don’t have, need an MP3 player, you don’t need a calculator, don’t need other things. All right? So FPV drone is an iPhone. Or like, okay, Apple please don’t sue me, is a smartphone. And then, when you add autonomy to it sort of becomes like Uber or ride sharing. Okay? So what it means is instead of actually being a trained pilot who has this complex remote controller device which requires a couple months of training to actually pilot the drone, and then having to pilot it for 30 minutes, flying towards the target, et cetera, et cetera, now you basically, you have your smartphone, you have a drone, you pick your smartphone, you say, “We are here. The bad guys are here. Go and get them.” And the drone goes up, flies in a given direction, localizes itself on the map, finds the dedicated area where they, the bad guys are supposed to be sees the bad guys, bombs them, return, like, watches, so does a damage assessment, returns back, sits down, and then you can pick it up and watch the video if you didn’t have the radio link, right?Noah [00:31:59]: That’s a bomber drone.Yaroslav [00:32:00]: That’s full autonomy for a bomber drone, right?Noah [00:32:03]: You’re saying that no human decision is made in this entire process?Brandon [00:32:06]: That’s not, that’s not what he’s saying.Yaroslav [00:32:07]: A human decision was made at the beginning of the process-Noah [00:32:09]: I get it. I get itYaroslav [00:32:09]: The same way as you would fire an artillery.Yaroslav [00:32:12]: When you fire an artillery, you don’t stop at like, 500 meters away from a target and ask it whether, you want to strike or not. That’s exactly, a human decision is always made at some point. So when you do that’s full autonomy, and such full autonomy is happening as we speak. And such full autonomy increases the capabilities of an FPV drone, which is already, like, three orders more powerful than an artillery shell. Full autonomy increases its capabilities by four orders of magnitude because now you can have 100 times as many people who can use it, because you don’t need to train those people, and this is important. You can have 10 times, mission success rate, and you can have 10 times utility per drone because now instead of being one-way kamikaze, it’s, it can be a bomber.Brandon [00:33:05]: Now wait, let’s, you said 10 times mission success rate, which means that fully autonomous bomber drones succeed in their missions 10 times more often than human piloted bomber drones do. That’s an important thing to know.Noah [00:33:17]: Maybe, to push back onBrandon [00:33:19]: They’re super, they’re superhuman. They’re, they’ 10X superhuman.Yaroslav [00:33:22]: They’re not vulnerable to electronic warfare. They don’t care about the radio horizon. They don’t lose track during navigation. They are not susceptible to human error when, an artillery shell or other drone blows up besides you and you’re like, “Hell no,”like, “I’m getting out of here.” Right? That doesn’t happen to an autonomous drone. Like, all of those things. Like, we have, like, one of the brigades that’s using our drones with just first level autonomy They literally said that their success rates-Brandon [00:33:53]: What’s first level autonomy?Yaroslav [00:33:54]: First level autonomy is just the terminal guidance.Yaroslav [00:33:57]: By the way, we have video of that. We can watch that.Brandon [00:33:59]: Terminal guidance means a human gets it nearby and then the AI takes over.Yaroslav [00:34:03]: The human flies it all the way, like 30 kilometers towards the target, and obviously the target was probably given to that human by someone who’s flying some ISR drone, some reconnaissance drone, right? So all the way to the target, and once you see the target from a distance of 500 meters, you do target lock, and from there drone flies autonomous. So just that feature alone, it has increased the guy’s, his call sign is Grom, so it has increased his, mission success rate, like precision of mission, yeah, mission success rate from 20% to 71%, and it also increased his kill zone from three kilometers to 10 kilometers, which means there’s certain area around the front line which is designated kill zone. Whenever enemy goes into that area, it’s almost guaranteed to be to be destroyed by a drone. And then obviously the drones are not launched from like, the zero line. They’re usually launched from like, minus 10 kilometer-Mission Success, Failure Modes, and the Five Levels of AutonomyBrandon [00:35:03]: What is a zero line?Yaroslav [00:35:05]: Zero line is sort of an imaginary line of control, of two conflicting forces.Brandon [00:35:14]: It’s important to explain these things to a lot of the listeners who areYaroslav [00:35:17]: Thank you for askingBrandon [00:35:18]: Familiar with warfare.Noah [00:35:20]: Myself.Noah [00:35:20]: I’m one of those listeners.Brandon [00:35:20]: You said that level one autonomy, in other words just terminal guidance, just, like, human gets it to the finish line and then it goes over the finish line, increases mission success from 20 something percent to 71%, or something like that.Yaroslav [00:35:33]: Increases the kill zoneBrandon [00:35:34]: Increases the kill zoneYaroslav [00:35:34]: Three kilometers to 10 kilometers.Brandon [00:35:36]: Got it.Yaroslav [00:35:36]: On both parameters-Brandon [00:35:37]: What is full autonomy, dude? AndNoah [00:35:38]: Actually on real quick, can we define mission success and like, maybe in a way, what are the failure modes of missions?Brandon [00:35:44]: I have a guess what mission success is.Noah [00:35:46]: But I couldBrandon [00:35:47]: Get ‘em.Yaroslav [00:35:49]: No, but that’s a very good question, in fact, because, even if you fly into the target, well, first the target can be damaged or destroyed. Those are two different modes. Then there can be different targets. A sole infantryman is one kind of target. A dugout where supposed there are some, enemies there is another kind of target, and a some mechanical equipment is another type of target. Radio emitting equipment, which, like, often, like, the targets that the military want to get more than anything else is the some enemy radio tower or something like that or some small radio dish that really makes life difficult in that area, in that combat area. So those are different targets, right? It can be destroyed, can be damaged.Then sometimes, the drone hits but doesn’t explode. Like, that happens. And then, there are other failure modes. You didn’t even reach the target because you were A jammed by electronic warfare; B, you lost the control over drone because of the radio horizon; C, you were jammed by a different type of electronic warfare that happens way before You hit the target area. It’s, impacting your, video receiver. So like jamming on video or jamming on control are two different types of jamming. Then something malfunctioned on a drone, just a mechanical malfunction, maybe like a motor broke or like, whatever. So all of those are different failure modes. Yeah, or maybe you got lost, you’re navigate navigating to your, to your target. That happens, too.Noah [00:37:41]: The Level one autonomy, basically you manage to point in a direction.Noah [00:37:49]: You go there, and then the last mile The drone taking over.Yaroslav [00:37:52]: We define this like, I define that but it sort of got picked up by the industry. We define five levels of autonomy. So level one is terminal guidance. It’s what we just discussed. Level two is bombing. Level three is autonomous target detection and engagement decision. Level four is autonomous navigation. And level five is autonomous takeoff and landing.Noah [00:38:15]: Those are good things to knowYaroslav [00:38:16]: Those are five levels of autonomy. Now, if youNoah [00:38:19]: I have a question for you.Yaroslav [00:38:19]: Sorry. Like, let me finish withNoah [00:38:21]: SorryYaroslav [00:38:21]: Theoretical part.Noah [00:38:23]: What is Tesla running at right now?Yaroslav [00:38:25]: Tesla?Noah [00:38:25]: No, sorry.Yaroslav [00:38:26]: That’s very good point. Like, it’s exactly, it was inspired by the levels of self-driving autonomy.Noah [00:38:32]: Waymo’s level five, right?Noah [00:38:35]: You just tell it where you want to go, it picks you up, and then you go there.Yaroslav [00:38:36]: I think, like, if you, if you look at the classic definitions of self-driving cars, Waymo is still, like, level four because it still requires even remote, but still, like, human control. It’s like if Waymo gets in trouble, there is an operator who takes over and resolves this. So that would still be a level four. It doesn’t map directly, but it’s also five levels.Brandon [00:38:58]: Can I, can I interject a question here? In terms of an FPV drone that’s like a suicide drone that’ll just blow itself up killing something, how do what it hit? Like, does it, just transmit back, or do you sort of like, lose track of it and hope it hit? Like, what happens to that?Yaroslav [00:39:16]: That’s a great question. SoBrandon [00:39:18]: You need another droneYaroslav [00:39:19]: Like, the current battlefield in Ukraine is saturated with different types of drones. So obviously you have all the FPV drones and last year alone, Ukraine manufactured about 4 million of these, and then Russia’s maybe, like, 20% less than that. And for this year, the publicly voiced target was 7 million on Ukrainian side. So it’s, like, serious numbers. We’re getting in serious numbers here. And then besides those, there are different, reconnaissance drones, ISR as we call them, and there are sort of tactical level ISR where we, both Ukrainians and Russians usually use, Mavic, drone by DJI. And then there are a bunch of locally produced drones, which are sort of fixed wing drones that can stay in the air for much longer than Mavic, maybe, like, half an hour. And then, there are drones that can stay for many hours or even up to a day. And those drones have, are more expensive, have more expensive cameras, et cetera, et cetera. We hunt those drones that Russians launch. The Russians hunt our drones, and so on. But ideally, when you, are a group of soldiers operating an FPV, you’ll have someone in your, company, or someone in your platoon who has an ISR asset that will do target designation for you. They’ll say, “Oh, like, there’s a Russian vehicle over there. Go and get him.”and you go there, you get it, and they’re like, “Okay, confirmed.”Battlefield Surveillance and the Eight Dimensions of AutonomyBrandon [00:40:57]: Those guys are watching. They have their own drones in the sky.Yaroslav [00:40:59]: Target destroyed. They have, like, a carousel of drones because One Mavic cannot stay more than 30 minutes. ItBrandon [00:41:06]: They’re constantly surveilling the battlefield.Yaroslav [00:41:07]: Almost every spot on the battlefield.Yaroslav [00:41:11]: It’s not always the case. Sometimes you will not have a surveillance asset, so then you would launch another FPV just to confirm that there was a hit. Then if you see there was a hit and you’re not sure if it completely destroyed, you maybe hit again for good measure.Brandon [00:41:26]: You double tap.Yaroslav [00:41:28]: That’s how it works. But I was about to give you another sort of piece of taxonomy. So you have five levels of autonomy, right? Then you have sort of eight dimensions of autonomous battlefield. So what is eight dimensions? It’s crucial to understand how autonomy evolves in a modern, battlefield environment. So dimension number one is level of autonomy. What are the capabilities that your asset has? Dimension number two is the platform you’re operating on. So it can be a quadcopter, a fixed wing drone, different types of maybe, like, a long range drone or short range drone, but it can also be a missile. You can have autonomy even on an artillery shell or a ground vehicle or a sea vehicle. So all of those are different platforms. Level three would be domain. So it’s ground to ground or ground to air as an intersection, or ground to sea or sea to air. They’re all, like, all the nuances with different domains. Then level four, would be higher levels of autonomy, such as swarming, drone carriers, drone nests, et cetera.Brandon [00:42:39]: Now when you’re saying level, you’re talking about dimensions, not about-Yaroslav [00:42:42]: Sorry. YeahBrandon [00:42:43]: Autonomy levels. So dimension four.Yaroslav [00:42:43]: The dimension. Yeah, I used to say I was supposed to say dimension. I say dimension because each of them works with another, right? So you might have, like third level autonomy, fixed wing drone operating in land to air, and stuff like that right? And then operating in a swarm or operating from a nest. Right? Then you have, sort of dimension number five is environment. So is it day or night? Is it summer or winter? Is it, humid, cold, dry? What kind of target is it? Is your target hiding in a forest, or is it, behind a hill or within buildings? So all of that is environment. Then you have, dimension number six is command and control. How are you dealing with or like, tens of thousands of those assets around the battlefield? How are you coordinating that on the higher levels of command? How are you collecting data? All that.Yaroslav [00:43:44]: Dimension number seven would be infrastructure, so things like simulation, data collection tools, security, deployment mechanisms, et cetera. So all those systems have to be developed separately and integrate with all the others. And finally, dimension number eight is sort of distribution. Have you deployed 100 of these systems or 100,000 of these systems? Because those are two very different ballgames. So that now gives you a more broad overview of how autonomy propagates across the battle space.Targeting, Human Responsibility, and Rules of EngagementNoah [00:44:23]: As someone who has done machine learning and had gone out of distribution and had things, go horribly wrong, you were talking several of these, kind of axes of thinking about drone warfare seem like they could be very susceptible to some sort of distribution shift if you start making things autonomous.Yaroslav [00:44:41]: Like what?Noah [00:44:41]: I mean Well, first ofYaroslav [00:44:43]: If the I’m very interested Sort of sort of kinds of scenarios that you’re thinking about.Noah [00:44:48]: Like the most obvious one is you, if I assume these are computer vision guided systems for at least the last mile, how do you ensure that oh, well, like you now have some fog roll in or something, and you, the drones just attack the wrong thing? Or maybe, it probably will not turn around and fly back and attack you, but youYaroslav [00:45:10]: Same, the same, the same question, how do you ensure that your mortar fire hits the right thing? Well, it’s like mortar fire, give or take half a kilometer could be plus or minus. So maybe you fire one, and then you fire another. So drones are actually, much better in being precise in those scenarios. And I think, to your point, I think five to 10 years from now it will be immoral to use weapons without AI.Yaroslav [00:45:44]: ‘Cause weapons without AI will be more likely to cause, collateral damage or unwanted damage. Same way, it will be immoral to drive your own car manually on a public road because it’s more likely to cause, unwanted damage.Noah [00:46:02]: Wow, I never considered that mightBrandon [00:46:04]: Really? That’s definitely coming.Yaroslav [00:46:07]: Anyway.Brandon [00:46:07]: No, but that’ I don’t know, it’s an obvious, an obvious thought. I agree with you.Brandon [00:46:12]: I, No, they, obviously they’re not going to let you drive once most of the cars on the road are autonomous.Noah [00:46:17]: No, that one, don’t I believe.Yaroslav [00:46:19]: No, I think you were you were talking about drones, right?Brandon [00:46:21]: The drones, right. Cool.Yaroslav [00:46:22]: The weapons, right?Brandon [00:46:23]: Friendly fire and collateral damage and stuff like that is all minimized with AI.Brandon [00:46:27]: Here’s my question. Take all let’s go to level six autonomy. Let’s take all of the target selection. Let’s take all the battlefield data, integrate it into one big AI, and have that big AI basically be in command of the battlefield And agentically do target selection.Yaroslav [00:46:44]: Be the general, right?Brandon [00:46:44]: It’s a general. It’s, you’ve cut humans out of the loop except maybe as dexterous robots, repairing drones and fastening things to drones or maybe something like that because you don’t have those robots yet. How soon are we there? AI general.Yaroslav [00:46:58]: The most important thing to ask ourselves is who will be faster to that us or our adversaries?Brandon [00:47:07]: I assume us, but how fast will we be to that? I hope us.Yaroslav [00:47:11]: I hope so too.Brandon [00:47:12]: How fast can we Like when are we looking at that in terms of like horizons years?Yaroslav [00:47:18]: Like technically, it could be done now. The question is of course, there’s, some engineering work to be done. The bigger challenge is deployment. Right? So okay, technically Like operation in Iran, right? They, the publicly, it was claimed that I think Palantir system was used for target designation, et cetera, et cetera. So it is not exactly as you say, the AI makes all the decisions, but basically AI goes through all the data you have, gives you these 1,027 different targets and says, “You-- To confirm, please press Okay.” And you look at the targets and you’re like, “Yeah, sounds right. Press Okay.”so that’s, I think that’s where we are now already, or we were a couple weeks ago as we’re recording this on April 10th. Another question is how massively deployable it is. Is it, like, every decision being made like that or is it, like, just some of the decisions made like that? And then different levels of command and control. There you have, like, the platoon, the company level, the battalion, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But the tricky thing here when we get into that territory, the tricky thing is If your enemy is getting advantage of being Thousand times faster than yourself by deploying such systems What do you do?Yaroslav [00:49:10]: You got to-Brandon [00:49:12]: The if the enemy is a thousand times faster than you at deploying those systems?Yaroslav [00:49:16]: Like, if enemy starts deploying level six autonomy, as you call And you have not started doingBrandon [00:49:22]: You’re in troubleYaroslav [00:49:23]: Yes, exactly. So you have to catch up. So my point is that it is very important to think about the safety of these systems, but that thinking should not slow you down in developing them because they are critical for your existential, survival, right? And like, one person who doesn’t think, doesn’t get to think about the ethics of the war is a dead person. That person surely doesn’t get to think about that.Brandon [00:49:52]: What would be the safety risk of such a system?Yaroslav [00:49:55]: Of course-Brandon [00:49:56]: Friendly fire?Yaroslav [00:49:56]: Just wrong decisions, right?Brandon [00:49:59]: I see.Yaroslav [00:49:59]: Maybe, these decisions-AI Command Decisions, Dead Zones, and Complex BattlefieldsBrandon [00:50:06]: Skynet AI decides it’s going to useYaroslav [00:50:08]: No, these-Brandon [00:50:08]: Drone army to kill usYaroslav [00:50:09]: Decisions will not only be made about drones. They are likely to made about what the humans should do on your side as well. Then obviously some environments are more like Ukrainian-Russian war, where you haveBrandon [00:50:26]: It will have to choose to risk lives. It will have to choose to sacrifice human lives-Yaroslav [00:50:28]: Of courseBrandon [00:50:29]: On your side.Yaroslav [00:50:29]: Of course. And then some environments are just, like, dead, like, dead zones and there are no civilians there, or virtually no civilians close to the front line because, like, super dangerous. Everyone has evacuated from there. But there are other environments which are more like, okay, there’s a counterterrorist operation. There’s, like, a group of terrorists or a group of civilians. Or like, it’s like the recent operations in Iran, I imagine that the US and Israeli forces do not want to harm civilians. They only targeted the military targets there, right? So in those situations, it’s a different level of responsibility for that decision-making as well. And then there is just such a big variety of those military missions, and I’m not even, like, well-informed or well-educated in military science to tell you about all those scenarios. We would need to put some general besides me, and maybe a Ukraine general and American general would have told you very different stories about these things.Brandon [00:51:34]: Got it. Can I ask a few more questions? All right. So in 2013, I wrote one of my first, paid articles ever was about how the era of drones will change human society. I was just sitting around bored thinking about things.Yaroslav [00:51:54]: You were way ahead of your time.Brandon [00:51:55]: I said, I said, “The following will happen.”Yaroslav [00:51:57]: It’s, this article is real. I’ve read it.Yaroslav [00:51:58]: It’s actually-Brandon [00:51:59]: I said small autonomous, suicide drones, will cleanse the battlefield of human infantry. Human infantry will not be able to stand against swarms of AI-powered, suicide drones. That was I didn’t even know about, like, AlexNet at the time, I think.Yaroslav [00:52:19]: You’re just an avid sci-fi reader.Brandon [00:52:23]: I’m an avid sci-fi reader, but also, like, it’s not Like, there will be a way to do that. It’s a it’s a nonlinear multidimensional search problem, and you get enough compute, you’ll find some search algorithm that will get you there. And soBrandon [00:52:38]: I, yeah, I think that one sentence describes the bitter lesson right there.Brandon [00:52:41]: It’s just like it’s a multidimensional search space. You search it somehow. I don’t know. Figure out some get a grad student-Yaroslav [00:52:47]: Sooner or laterBrandon [00:52:47]: To make a search algorithm.Brandon [00:52:48]: It’s not that hard. Anyway, so but then, but I guess the point is The point is that human infantry on the battlefield will be will be gone at the end. I wrote that in 2013. Many people on social media laughed at me for that called me hysterical, said things like, “Electronic warfare will knock all the drones out of the sky.”like, “You need humans to hold ground.”that’s something you still hear from a lot of people on social media today. I feel that this article that I’ve written has never been directionally wrong. It has gotten more and more right steadily over time, and that we’re very reading the battlefield reports from Ukraine, where, human infantry are basically guy, like a few guys hiding in dugouts for months, and I’m not sure what they’re doing.Yaroslav [00:53:35]: That’s on Ukraine’s side. On the Russian side, that’s just like a zerg rush.Brandon [00:53:38]: The zerg rush, and then they just die. Then, but they have some guys in dugouts too, right? Like hiding in dugouts for months.Yaroslav [00:53:45]: They have. Yeah.Brandon [00:53:45]: Like, but that like, what are those guys doing in the dugouts? Are providing, like, frontline, like, reconnaissance? Like, what are they doing?Yaroslav [00:53:54]: If there is a guy in a dugout with some bullets and automatic weapon, the other guy cannot come and take the that dugout. That’Brandon [00:54:07]: I seeYaroslav [00:54:08]: They are they’re establishing control over territory.Brandon [00:54:10]: I see. So that is so there still is a use for human infantry on the battlefield as of today.Yaroslav [00:54:15]: LikeBrandon [00:54:15]: How long will that last?Yaroslav [00:54:17]: I think it will last for a while. This is funny. There’s this whole Layer of the modern culture, a modern Ukraine culture built around the war-related stuff. So there is this -Punk rock band, that is called SZC, I guess in English that would be. Which stands short for like a deserter or something like that. So anyhow, this band has a song titled “2030.” It’s basically about the year 2030, and the war still goes on as like the whatever, third world war or whatever. And they basically, they, sang about the AI and like cyborgs and everything, but the simple infantry is still needed, and we’re still, like, getting cold in those dugouts, and we’re still doing our job. That’s sort of the theme of the song. And it seems like that’s actually what’s going to happen. There areGround Robots, Simulation, and the Limits of World ModelsBrandon [00:55:30]: Ground robots will not replace humans in the dugouts soon.Yaroslav [00:55:34]: I’m very much interested in following the whole humanoid robot theme andBrandon [00:55:39]: What about like a dog robot?Noah [00:55:41]: Or just mobile controlled platforms or something.Brandon [00:55:44]: Spider robot, yeah.Brandon [00:55:45]: Everything evolves into a crab.Brandon [00:55:46]: You build a crab robot.Yaroslav [00:55:47]: A humanoid-Noah [00:55:48]: The carcinization of warfare.Yaroslav [00:55:51]: There is a lot of utility in humanoid robots because the world is designed around humanoids. So I would not, like, 100% disqualify the possibility that sometimes 10 years in the future, humanoid robots, will be actually fighting. So that’s an actual Terminator kind of scenario.Brandon [00:56:14]: Yeah, in the first Terminator movie, you look at what they’ve got on the battlefield, they’ve got flying bomber drones and humanoid robots.Yaroslav [00:56:20]: Look, the cost of large language models of running them is getting so low, you can have basically an inexpensive computer running, what was a state-of-the-art model a year and a half ago, running it locally on a device with an open source model, which also means that the Chinese can have it, the Russians can have it, the North Koreans can have it, et cetera. So that is already possible. And with when we’re looking at the acceleration of the neural nets, I would’ve, if not the acceleration of the large language models, I would’ve said that I don’t think that humanoid robots will be able to be useful in the battlefield earlier than in 10 years. But if you account for the exponential, it might be five years or so. The problem with all of the autonomous systems, and it’s like starts with self-driving cars and even with all the AI, like modern day AI agents, to make them really, useful, you have to solve such a long tail of edge cases, that it’s really difficult to make them useful. Like we were promised, self-driving cars, what, like 2007, Sebastian Thrun and Google, and even before that all the challenges, everything. And Elon of course told us it’s going to be one year from 2014, and now we still don’t have self-driving Teslas everywhere. We have Waymos in SF and some other places, but they’re still, like, not perfect. So I think, I expect something similar from self-flying drones and fully autonomous drones, and we saw that firsthand as with each level of autonomy that we’re adding, there is a very wide distance between a prototype and something that is ready to be scaled to millions of units and something that has been scaled to millions of units. But the race with like AI coding tools is just insane. So things might accelerate very fast, faster than we can imagine.Noah [00:58:46]: I think your point is that with due to this long tail behavior Level one autonomy as you’ve defined it, is actually very natural. Like you basically are just solving an image recognition and tracking system.Yaroslav [00:59:02]: It’s actually interesting that you say it that way, and I thought about this the very same way, and we have this joke that there are like 200 companies in Ukraine which are trying to solve last mile, targeting or terminal guidance. It seems like we’re like the only company that actually solved that because even that problem-Noah [00:59:22]: I’m not saying it’s, I’m not saying it’s trivial, but it’s at least something that you imagine given our current state.Yaroslav [00:59:26]: Like us and Eric Schmidt, like Eric Schmidt’s companies are pretty good.Yaroslav [00:59:29]: Like, I actually have lots of respect to what they’re doing, and they’re, they have been practically influential and helpful on the battlefield, and they have good engineering.Noah [00:59:38]: I wasn’t, I wasn’t saying it’s trivial. I’m just saying this is a something naturally adaptive based upon things that we know work, well. But some of the other domains that where you do have to make decisions and you have a long tail become much harder, and you worry about edge cases more.Yaroslav [00:59:57]: Like the more, the more complex behavior you’re trying to simulate, the more edge cases there are right? The more ways to do it wrong there are. And then there are different approaches. It’s like if you think about, if you read academic papers about robotics, right? You sort of the robot is represented as something that has the sort of sensor input, and then you have three, levels of sort of logics or decision-making, which are perception, planning, and control, and then you have actuators as output.So pre-neural nets, you would do perception output and control all with classic logics, right? Then, with AlexNet and computer vision, you could do perception with neural nets and the rest with logic. You cannot currently do each of those separately with neural nets, each of those separately with logics, or you can just have one huge neural net that just takes lots of sensory data. It’s not just pixels. Could be sound, could be accelerometer, could be everything, as input, and just outputs the controls. And some of the self-driving car companies are doing that or like, experimenting between different ways of doing that. So you can also, like, think about that and the way you implement those features, also influences how much degrees of freedom the system would have, right? Like control, you can do it classical algorithmic control with common filters and PAD filter, PAD controllers, et cetera, or you can do a neural net, that was trained in a gym with a reinforcement learning, et cetera. And those would be two different behaviors of a system.Noah [01:01:53]: I-- Maybe my point was just much more high level. It’Yaroslav [01:01:56]: Or you can If you go even like, if you go high level, you can, you can like train to like have whatever, like Feifei Li and folks who are doing like physical, sortBrandon [01:02:08]: World modelsYaroslav [01:02:08]: World models, right, physical intelligence, they’re trying to make these big models and sort of understand the world and then supposedly you have such model and you can tell a drone, “Okay, like, go over that hill and like, find the bad guys and then get them,”or “Make me a video, make me a photo of the guy smiling and get back to me.” Right? That’s one way. Another way you have like these subsystems, like one is navigation, another is finding the person, another is like getting to them to take a photo. And those are again, very different behaviors. And then it’s not that one is necessarily better than the other, and we might have more technological ability to do one or another. But all of those systems will exist. And then again, you should always keep in mind that it’s only the not only the good guys that are developing these systems, the bad guys are developing these systems as well.China’s Drone Supply Chain and the West’s Manufacturing GapNoah [01:03:00]: I guess where I’m going with this back to Noah’s original thought with the end of the end of the soldier. And so in order to replace-Brandon [01:03:10]: Or at least the end of the rifleman.Noah [01:03:11]: Or the end of the rifleman, yeah.Yaroslav [01:03:13]: I’m not seeing that very close, and it was like I’m, as much as I’m a lover of sci-fi and all of that and a technologist, the more I try to beYaroslav [01:03:27]: Like the I try to have certain humility about these things, and like the military, domain and there was just so much human history and blood and tears, dedicated to sort of understanding this art of war and perfecting it and so on. There is so much knowledge in there that I don’t feel like I even started to comprehend, a lot of that. But one thing that I really understood is that even though drones are now making eighty percent of the casualties, you go to the actual officers, you talk to the actual, like, brigade commanders, corps commanders, and they explain to you, how all of it fits together, how when you’re thinking about an operation that involves a couple thousand people to get this piece of land, out of the enemy’s hands, deoccu deoccupy it, how it is so complex, it involves, dozens of different types of drones and then land operations and reconnaissance operations, psychological operations and then aviations and tanks and logistics and all kinds of these different assets. So modern warfare is really very complex, and the fact that the drones are the latest, coolest thing, and then the AI is latest, coolest thing, doesn’t mean that now it’s that and only that right? So yeah. Whoever’s looking into that I think should realize that it’s not just what the press talks about, that the reality is much more difficult, much more complex.Brandon [01:05:17]: Let’s talk about China and China’s manufacturing capabilities. So suppose that someone, like suppose the United States went to war with China. AndYaroslav [01:05:26]: I hope not.Brandon [01:05:27]: I hope not as well. And then but suppose that drones were very essential to that war of all the types of drones that we’re talking about here, and that suppose that China said, “All right, well, you need X and Y and Z, to make those drones to fight us, and we control the production of X and Y and Z, so we’re just going to cut you right off, and now you have no drones.”Brandon [01:05:47]: I know that a number of countries, including Ukraine and Taiwan, have been making moves to China-proof their drone productions that China couldn’t do that. Examples of things they might be able to cut off might include rare earths, fiber optic cable that you were talking about before, various other things that where even if they don’t control one hundred percent of the production, they control enough of the production that would be extremely expensive to produce it without relying on Chinese sources. Or the market’s fragmented enough, et cetera. What do you see as China’s key bottlenecks, and how easy are those to overcome in terms of China-proofing drone production in case of a war against China?Yaroslav [01:06:30]: Let me start with a saying that -Although China does not sell directly to Ukraine and it does sell directly to Russia, a lot of Ukrainian supply chains, they start in China, right?Yaroslav [01:06:49]: We’re not in a conflict with China, and we would not want to be in a conflict with China. And we’d hope that China stays a neutral power between Ukraine and Russia and the US as well. That said, the scenario that you’re describing, everything is much worse.Yaroslav [01:07:11]: Think about this. Last year, Ukraine produced four million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world.Yaroslav [01:07:19]: China can produce four billion of these FPV drones.Yaroslav [01:07:23]: China can make them not drones with propellers, but fixed-wing drones, which go not forty kilometers far, but maybe two to three hundred kilometers inland. Slightly more expensive.Brandon [01:07:34]: With internal combustionYaroslav [01:07:36]: No. WithBrandon [01:07:36]: Battery-powered fixed-wing drones.Yaroslav [01:07:38]: Battery, yeah.Brandon [01:07:39]: What’s the propulsion system on those propellers?Brandon [01:07:43]: I don’t-- I just don’t know how that works.Yaroslav [01:07:44]: You have that. They can also make them all fully autonomous. They have DJI, the world’s most advanced drone company. They can make them fully autonomous without GPS, without anything. Then they can put those drones on maybe tens of thousands of fully autonomous underwater submarines, or maybe not even that just on shipping containers and barges that ship goods or freight ships. And then they show up with millions of drones packed onto those, sea vessels. They show up to any coastline in the world, be it Taiwan or be it California, and they have millions of long-range impactors targeted at a at a piece of land.Yaroslav [01:08:38]: What do you do with that? There are not enough hunter submarines. There are not enough antiBrandon [01:08:46]: Ship missiles.Yaroslav [01:08:47]: Anti-ship missiles, anti-ship, planes. They can produce these assets, on in tens of thousands of factories because they’re so simple to produce that even the if the FBI director picks a phone, calls to the President of the United States, says, “Hey The scenario Yaroslav was warning us about is beginning to unfold. We need to do a preemptive strike,”You wouldn’t have enough assets, to do preemptive strikes because there can be like tens of thousands of places where these things are being manufactured. And then so to counteract a scenario like that we would need to have like a similar amount of massBrandon [01:09:39]: You mean a similar number of drones.Yaroslav [01:09:41]: Yes, to intercept that like either in sea or in air, et cetera, at a similar cost, right? So economics should work out. I’ll tell you that currently, we in the West and we in the United States, we don’t have the technology to do that. We don’tFour Layers Behind China: Technology, Manufacturing, Components, and Rare EarthsBrandon [01:10:01]: What technologies, key technologies do we lack?Yaroslav [01:10:03]: Like autonomy, mass drone manufacturing, stuff like that.Brandon [01:10:06]: We lack autonomy technology?Yaroslav [01:10:09]: I think so.Brandon [01:10:10]: Because our computer vision algorithms are not as good?Yaroslav [01:10:12]: It’s not only about the computer vision algorithms. It’s like the like if a group of companies by Eric Schmidt founded two, three years ago and my small startup, was like maybe not as small, but it’s also founded three years ago, are sort of two of the leading companies in the world, and maybe a couple others who are capable of something like that but not really on small drones. I do think we’ll, we were behind China in technology. So we lack technology, we lack mass manufacturing capacity, we lack the components, and we lack the rare earth materials. So there are four layers in which we’re behind this challenge. And that’s why it is my point that we in the in the West, and especially in the United States, we should, there should be far more smarter people working in defense, and there should be more funding, if we want to keep the resemblance of our good past life.Brandon [01:11:14]: That’s really important. Would you say that right now, as things stand, in conventional terms, not, abstracting from strategic nuclear weapons, but in conventional terms, would you say that China is now the supreme conventional military power on Earth, given its ability to manufacture and deploy drones in the quantity and quality that you just described?Yaroslav [01:11:35]: Look, I don’t, I don’t think we have all the information to claim that butYaroslav [01:11:41]: We cannot count it out, and that alone should be a big warning sign. We have not seen, Chinese drones in action. We’ve seen some of the Iranian drone in action and Russian drones in action. Not Chinese really. Not seen Chinese forces in action. Obviously, hopefully, this never happens, but the conflict of a scale US, China, there are many Sort of classical assets that we should not discount. As we just discussed, we should not discount artillery in the land war, we should not discount, air-carrying groups and the air force, and long-range missiles and electronic warfare and satellites, et cetera. But then there are also things that we, at least we as a general public don’t really know about China. I’m sure there’s a lot of information that the US intelligence has about the Chinese capabilities. -I think if you, if you get back to the scenario that I just described, and if you take that like, sort of to the maximum You basically see that whoever has bigger manufacturing capacity, that side wins.Brandon [01:13:03]: That’s just a typical law of conventional warfare Has been forever.Yaroslav [01:13:07]: Sort of.Noah [01:13:07]: Do you read Noah’s blog?Yaroslav [01:13:09]: I not as often as I would like. But I read Noah’s, X.Brandon [01:13:15]: It’s not necessary.Noah [01:13:15]: It’s a theme whereBrandon [01:13:16]: Don’t read my X.Brandon [01:13:19]: It’s just forNoah [01:13:19]: He doesn’t, he has no opinion about certain things. YeahBrandon [01:13:22]: It’s just jokes.Yaroslav [01:13:22]: No opinion. Okay.Brandon [01:13:22]: Okay, so here’s the I guess there’s two questions here. The question of could The United States and other countries allied with the United States even develop supply chains that are independent of China to make any of these drones? And the second question is could they do it in sufficient mass? And so I think the answer to the question of can they do it in sufficient mass is today, no. But in a extended, prolonged war situation, things change a lot. And all the development restrictions that we put on new factories go out the window, and a sense of urgency. Ukraine obviously wasn’t making all these drones before the war.Yaroslav [01:14:04]: Of course.Brandon [01:14:04]: So if America had the same kind of urgency that Ukraine has now, things would happen. Things would move, and of course, America has allies too, or had allies until recently, and may have them again in the future. But America has or had allies that would also scale up very quickly, like Japan and European countries if we ever ally with them again, et cetera. And so a lot of things could then change in terms of the actual mass. So I, in terms of looking at China and saying they have all these factories today, and looking at the history of conventional warfare, America had very few military very little defense production capability on the eve of World War II, and ended up easily outproducing everyone else, even the Soviet Union.Yaroslav [01:14:47]: Maybe not easily. Yeah.Brandon [01:14:49]: Not easily, but by a long, a long shot.Yaroslav [01:14:51]: Also the added benefit of not being attacked.Brandon [01:14:54]: That’s right. That’s right.Yaroslav [01:14:54]: That helps.Brandon [01:14:55]: Who knows how Secure they are now, but or what, where cyber influenceYaroslav [01:15:03]: No, look, I totally agree with your sentiment. I like, and I’m not as y, I’m even less doomerish than you are. Or as it seems to me, you’re a little bit doomerish, but like, in the long term, you’re bullish.Choke Points, Europe’s Wake-Up Call, and Defense Industrial PolicyBrandon [01:15:17]: I’m not, I’m not doomerish. I’m thinking about the I’m thinking about what we need to do.Brandon [01:15:21]: I’m not, I’m not thinking like, “Oh, we’re doomed.” That’s not my point. It’s never useful saying that. If you’re doomed, then just don’t go on podcasts.Brandon [01:15:28]: Go pet a rabbit and play a video game or something. It’s Anyway, no, if you’re, we’re not doomed, but I’m saying step one, how, what are the key choke points that we need tomorrow, besides rare earths, which we already know, what are the other key choke points that the West needs to free itself from Chinese supply chains on in order to manufacture even one drone Free Chinese supply chains?Yaroslav [01:15:54]: There are companies here who are doing that like our, we have, good friends, a company called Neuros. I know they’re, down in El Segundo or whatever, like somewhere on South California.Brandon [01:16:05]: What are the most pressing choke points besides rare earths that everyone talks about?Yaroslav [01:16:09]: That’s one of the pieces that we do, thermal cameras. That’s like actually a big one.Brandon [01:16:16]: Thermal cameras.Yaroslav [01:16:17]: Then, like, the motors. Like you need The special-Brandon [01:16:25]: Even after you have the magnets, then you turn them into a really good motor.Yaroslav [01:16:28]: You have, you need these special magnets, and then that’s sort of your rare earth component.Brandon [01:16:34]: That’s, that’Yaroslav [01:16:34]: Like rare earth is not that oh, like there are these metals that only for some reason, God only put them under the Chinese territory and not under any others. No, like they’re distributed. There are plenty of them around Earth. It’s about the refining capabilities and like, investing into that and so on. And then, like, frankly, at some point, we don’t have that many humans. Like, that’s where the humanoid robots help. Like China is a big populous country. The population of like, United West is comparable to that but the population of the US is much lower than that. And I definitely think that the whole West should get their act together, because, ubi semper victoria, ibi concordia. There’s always victory where there is union.Brandon [01:17:27]: Agreement.Yaroslav [01:17:27]: Agreement, yes.Yaroslav [01:17:31]: I think we sort of as the free nations of the world, we should get their act together because freedom is what unites us. And I’m also, like, pretty mad at what’s happening in the European Union. And I think that Current US administration is the best thing that has ever happened to Europe, since World War II probably. Or since post-World War II, because World War II wasn’t the best thing.Brandon [01:17:59]: Trump withdrawing the image of omnipotent American support forced the Europeans to get their butts in gear, unite Develop their defense industries.Yaroslav [01:18:07]: Also, like, doing that not in a nice way, right? Like when JD Vance came to Munich, Forum one year ago, he wasn’t, like, super nice, like, “Oh, please, our European friends, please could you please increase your, defense spending?” He was somewhat pushy. Let’s put it that way. And that I think that was a necessary measure. Like, I’ve been, I’ve been thinking about that. Could it, could it have been he, maybe he could have been nicer? I was like, no, because, like, the voters of European leaders, the European countries, would have not understood this. They would not get the message. And now I think the message was gotten across, but Europe is still sort ofSlow to wake up, I would put it that way. Things are getting better, but I’m not happy about the speed of how they’re getting better. So when I, when I, like, when I would go to some of the European capitals, I would get back pretty depressed from like, talking to their, military officials and their entrepreneurs, et cetera. Here, I’ve been in the US for the last month or so. I’m not depressed. I’m actually, I’m actually excited. I still think you should, like, 10X the effort in sort of making sure that you remain the strongest power, in the world and you can defend your values, et cetera. But I’m very optimistic, and definitely once we are in danger, I think, we’re just, like, lots of very smart people in the West who can figure these things out. But people in China are also extremely smart. It’s very different from even the Cold War sort of situation. Like, Soviet Union was economically a very declining power. China’s not like that. And then if we look at electric car race, I think they’re ahead of the US and ahead of the whole world, definitely ahead of Europe, which used to be sort of a car superpower. When you look at AI, I think they’re Almost where we are maybe slightly behind. When you look at humanoid robotics, I would argue they’re ahead. And in many other, like, in like medicine and sort of biosciences, there are lots of interesting things there, and like, in consumer space, there are lots of interesting, things there. I don’t know if you heard this podcast called 996. I don’t know if it’s still airing or not. There used to be a fantastic podcast by some, American Chinese, businessman, maybe venture funds.Humility About China, Taiwan, and DeterrenceBrandon [01:20:55]: About the Chinese economy?Yaroslav [01:20:56]: About China from a sort of tech venture point of view. So and I lived in China for maybe four months, and I visited a couple times. Like, even WeChat is like, such a more advanced app than anything we have in the West. So we, it’s very important not to be too arrogant, and I think we’re guilty of that like, definitely in the US. Sometimes we tend to be too arrogant. Like, I think, like, humility helps always, at least to me personally. And then I think, like, we don’t have to we don’t have to obviously be enemies. So Like with Ukraine and Russia, it’s like Russia came to kill all of these people and get all this territory. With China and the US, it’s not like that and thanks God it’s not like that right?Brandon [01:21:54]: It might be with China and Taiwan. Maybe.Yaroslav [01:21:57]: Hopefully not. Yeah. It’sBrandon [01:21:59]: Hopefully notYaroslav [01:22:00]: It’s like China has their own, problems probably with human rights, et cetera. But hopefully, it’s still not beyond the fixing point.Brandon [01:22:13]: Hopefully. Hopefully.Yaroslav [01:22:14]: We should, we should be armed, right? We should, we should be ready to whatever, and then that alone decreases the probability of any conflict. If you’re weak, you’re basically provoking the conflict. The problem with Europe these days is that like, last year, Ukraine and Russia went in drone technology of 2025, year to drone technology of 2026. Europe went from winter of 2022 to spring of 2022. So the gap, Europe didn’t even make one year of progress. The and the US, I would argue, made less than a year of progress as well in the last year. So the gap, the technological gap is getting wider and wider and wider. And at some point, like, I’m looking at polls who are like, very close to us and close to Russia.Brandon [01:23:06]: Polish people-Yaroslav [01:23:07]: Polish peopleBrandon [01:23:08]: Not surveys.Yaroslav [01:23:09]: Not, yeah. Oh, yeah, sorry. Yeah. That’s what I meant. Sorry, not my first language.Brandon [01:23:12]: When I’m looking at the polls, what do they, what do they say?Yaroslav [01:23:15]: Polish people. Polls.Brandon [01:23:16]: No, it’s the right word.Brandon [01:23:18]: You’re just thinking about-Yaroslav [01:23:20]: No, we.Yaroslav [01:23:20]: I’m looking at them, and they bought like 100 tanks and four submarines. It’s like, dudes, you don’t have, like, 1,000 people who know how to operate an FPV. What the hell you’re doing?Brandon [01:23:30]: Poland is not preparing for war correctly.Yaroslav [01:23:33]: From what I canBrandon [01:23:36]: They’re doing a very bad jobYaroslav [01:23:36]: They’re not doing it right. And the problem is they’ll be in a situation where, they’re so proud of their winged hussars and like, their cavalry, and the enemy is attacking with airplanes and tanks. That’s literally like the gap is getting wider between Russia and Poland.Brandon [01:23:57]: That happened in 1939.Yaroslav [01:24:01]: I don’t want that to happen again.What America Should Learn from Ukraine’s Defense ValleyBrandon [01:24:03]: All right, so the Europeans need to wake up more. If you were advising America’s defense establishment, which you might be doing in real life, but if you were saying things on a podcast that might be heard by some people connected to that defense establishment Then which you may or may not be what are like, the besides more funding, more funding, that’ll be necessary for anything, literally anything. But so what are the top priorities policy-wise for America to increase its readiness right now? And let’s say three to five priorities.Yaroslav [01:24:38]: Look, I really like this quote, I think it’s by Arthur C. Clarke, that “the future is already here - it’s just not evenly distributed yet.”and just the same way as Silicon Valley as this Sort ofFuture location for all things tech. Kyiv and Ukraine is sort of the defense valley. It’s the point where the future of defense has already arrived, and there is a ton of things to learn from that starting with particular, hundreds of companies in very particular fields, to the battlefield experience, from battlefield commanders of every level, starting from soldiers, surgeon to platoon level commander to brigade level commander, special forces and intelligence, all of that to how the government, organizes, the sort of the infrastructure and sort of the playing ground for all these businesses to flourish, et cetera. So I would definitely look into much tighter integration and exchanging, the experience and so on. That would be one thing.Yaroslav [01:26:03]: I think Reform and procurement would be another thing, and I think that’s what, is currently being done with drone dominance. I think Pete Hegseth is leading that and maybe some other people in the administration. I think that’s extremely sort of powerful and right thing to do, and they should scale that big times.Yaroslav [01:26:26]: Obviously, any sort of military person would say, “Well, yes, okay, Yar, you’re fine, cool,”but Ukraine and its war theater is very much different from potential scenarios that U.S. Might have to fight, and yes, I agree, but there is still so much to learn even, like, from the sea warfare that Ukraine is doing and then long strain, long range drones like these Shaheds that unfortunately damaged some of the American equipment in the Middle East. They can fly up to two thousand kilometers. So like, if you think about in the Pacific region, like two thousand kilometers, that covers a lot of land with all the like, islands and aircraft carriers, et cetera.Brandon [01:27:16]: I think America is learning that lesson right now in Iran, in the Middle East.Yaroslav [01:27:20]: You would think so but then, I’m not sure. It’s like there was so many chances to learn that lesson from Ukraine before, and I don’t think it was like, fully learned, so I’m not sure how fully learned the Middle East lessons were.Brandon [01:27:34]: Perhaps losing a war to a minor power will teach America.Yaroslav [01:27:38]: You can, youBrandon [01:27:39]: Although the their economic weapon will be the most important and decisive by far, but still, some of our bases were supposedly, allegedly rendered unusable by their Shahed-type drones.Yaroslav [01:27:51]: Look, I think, there are so many lessons to be taken from this like Russia, a much bigger power attacking Ukraine. Given the same logic that we discussed, whoever has more production capacity should win. But then Russia didn’t achieve victory in Ukraine, and then the US didn’t get, like, full victory in Iran. Probably achieved some of the goals, but probably not all of them. So that also, you can flip that. Like when you say, “Okay, what if China has so much more capacity than the US? What if they attack us for whatever reason? How can we hold them back if we don’t have the rare earths?” Well, as the Ukraine and Iranian examples show, you actually can hold back something like that even if you’re a less capable, party.Brandon [01:28:42]: Well, those examples did rely on Chinese supply chains, though.Yaroslav [01:28:47]: Partially, yes. But then if you think about Ukraine in February twenty-two, twenty-two to first half a year or a year, wasn’t much reliance on Chinese supply chain. We were just relying on whatever we’ve got. So that’s one side of things. Another side of things is basically how much suffering can you withstand along multiple axes? It’s not just the military axis, it’s also, like, the economic axis and the political axis, I would, I would argue. So like, one of the reasons why wars stop or start is because the political pressure on the leadership internally in the country is so high that you just have to stop that right? So I think that differs big times, from whether you were the one who’s seen by the population as the party which started the conflict or the one who was attacked. That’s one part. Another, just by overall state of the society. Like, and one thing I’m worried about in Europe now, that people are not ready to fight even if they’re attacked. Like, when people are asked about that they’re like, “Oh, I’m just going to move to somewhere where there’s like less, there’s no war.”so that’s a challenge, and that’s what makes Europe weaker right now. And the US didn’t really have to ever, I think, fight a foreign war on its own turf. I hope that never happens, but in case that would have happened, I don’t know what would be how would the rich cities of East or West Coast, how would people behave? Like, would all the Wall Street bankers and Silicon Valley VCs, mobilize and really start working on defense stuff? I would love to think so. I like-- That’s the way I think about the American spirit.The Nuclear Lesson: Budapest, Deterrence, and the World After 2022Brandon [01:30:49]: The way we did in World War II.Yaroslav [01:30:53]: In a way, but look, like it wasn’t that clear in World War II, and like Churchill was like famously said, “America will always make the right decision after trying all the wrong ones,”right? And it’s like one could argue that there is this sort of this USA that lives in popular culture and was sort of created by Hollywood as like cool dudes that will always come and do the right thing, right? And then if you, if you look at like, international politicsYaroslav [01:31:21]: It doesn’t necessarily always look like that. Like the Budapest Memorandum, like Ukraine gave all of its nuclear weapons, the second, worst, third largest, nuclear arsenal, because the US and Russia and the others were very persuasive and they’re like, “Yeah, just give it away. We guarantee you security.” And they’re like, “Oh, it’s not guarantees, it’s assurances. We use the word assurances, so therefore we didn’t promise you much. You just gave it away for free.” And then like Russia attacks and like no reaction. So the whole world, like 2022, the whole world looks at it and is like, “Oh, okay, so maybe we should get nukes.” So like my prediction, next couple decades, a lot more countries, will be working their own nukes.Brandon [01:32:02]: They really should. I’ve, I’m consistently advocated for specifically Japan, South Korea, and Poland to get nukes. But obviously Ukraine should as well, but can’tYaroslav [01:32:11]: Someone could argue that if a country currently doesn’t work on their own nuclear program, they’re, doing a disservice to their country and the government should be fired. Like, because it seems like from the recent world history that is like the only way to actually provide credible deterrence, all right? So I guess I think like in Europe, people are not quite sure, how will America behave. Will it behave as the Hollywood hero, or will it behave pragmatically as it did at the beginning of World War II, or as it did, with when Ukraine was attacked by Russia and the US just decided to sort of push the Budapest Memorandum, aside because of course Russia’s a nuclear power and like we don’t want to mess with it.The Drone Race: Where Ukraine, Russia, and the West StandBrandon [01:32:59]: Everyone says Russia’s behind right now in the drone war.Yaroslav [01:33:04]: True. Okay.Brandon [01:33:04]: But that wasn’t true a year ago. So a year ago people were saying either Russia was ahead or they’re at parity, or maybe a year and a half ago.Brandon [01:33:12]: Russia has more people, four times as many people about, or more.Yaroslav [01:33:17]: I think give or take, yeah. 30 versus like 120-ish. Yeah.Brandon [01:33:21]: Four times as many people.Brandon [01:33:27]: More help from China.Yaroslav [01:33:28]: Like economy is like 10, 10- 20 times bigger, I don’t know. A lot bigger.Brandon [01:33:33]: A lot of oil money, a lot of oil money, that Ukraine just doesn’t have. More direct help from China than Ukraine is getting.Brandon [01:33:41]: Russia just has this massive advantage in scaling against Ukraine itself. Ukraine has financial assistance from the EU, but Right now Ukraine is ahead in the drone raceYaroslav [01:33:54]: I’m not sure about that by the way.Brandon [01:33:56]: Is that I was Well, that was going to be my next question. Is that true? And if it is true, how long before Russia manages to pivot, course correct, and regain the lead?Noah [01:34:05]: Sorry. For my own curiosity, can we define drone race?Yaroslav [01:34:09]: Look, I think it’s also for our listeners It’s helpful to understand that there areYaroslav [01:34:17]: At least 30 different types, categories of drones, right? Like you have If you, if you, first you have like different domains. You have flying drones, ground vehicles, and you have sea vehicles, and you have undersea vehicles, right? Then for each of those domains, you have multiple use cases. Like for ground vehicles, you have logistics, evacuation, mining, de-miningYaroslav [01:34:48]: Like maybe something else. For aerial, you have reconnaissance, front strike, mid strike, deep strike, mining, de-mining, radio repeating, kamikaze and bombing, ISR, different types of surveillance, so tactical surveillance, operational level surveillance, maybe strategic level surveilla surveillance at some point.Yaroslav [01:35:17]: Logistics also with aerial drones. For sea drones, same thing. So In each of those categories, you have Dozens, sometimes over 100 companies, and products which compete. So that’s the current Ukrainian, battlefield. From the Russian side, it’s less of a zoo, as we say. So they, in each category, they usually have one to maybe three products, and then they scale it sort of in a centralized fashion. And then so when you talk about whether we are behind or who’s behind or ahead in drone warfare You got to analyzeBrandon [01:36:04]: It’s asymmetric, so it’s hard to compareYaroslav [01:36:05]: Sort of area by area, right? So if you’re like talking about their front strike, I would argue that Ukraine has gotten ahead recently with after scaling the fiber optic. Before that Russia was slightly ahead. So Ukraine got ahead. With like mid strikes, so say something like 40 to 200 kilometersYaroslav [01:36:35]: It’s hard for me to judge. At some point Russia was ahead. I think maybe we’re getting ahead as well, and deep strike we recently got ahead, so we were we were doing more damage to Russia with deep strike drones than they’re doing to us. In sea drones, we’re consistently ahead, always were ahead. In ground drones, I think we’re ahead. Yeah, I think like onBrandon [01:37:00]: Where are they still ahead?Yaroslav [01:37:01]: In general, I think we’re ahead. Where they, where they are still ahead? I think in certain parts, -Of the components, like A GPS free or navigation like these CRPA antennas are pretty good. They have, these, winged, bombs that they drop from their bomber planes.Yaroslav [01:37:33]: I forgot the English name for it.Brandon [01:37:34]: Glide bomb?Yaroslav [01:37:35]: Sort of. Yeah. So they’re ahead on that side, and it’s like it’s difficult to protect from those.Brandon [01:37:42]: What’s the range of that?Yaroslav [01:37:45]: It can be pretty big. I think it’s like, can be up to 80 kilometers. Then obviously the range-Brandon [01:37:52]: From like a fighter plane, like a strike?Yaroslav [01:37:54]: The range is a very iffy subject here because the range isYaroslav [01:38:01]: Is like basically the distance from where you drop the bomb to where it lands, but also you drop it from a fighter plane, and then fighter planes are susceptible to aerial interceptor missiles. So on our side, we have our own fighter planes, and we have the ground anti-air systems. And then, and then those two assets, they have their radars and radar fields. And then, depending on the enemy tactics, you can, calculate how big is the aerial area that you cover with those assets. And look, I’m not a professional military guy, so I’m covering these topics in a in layman terms. Don’t quote me on this. I’m just trying this to make this as understandable to an average listener as possible.Brandon [01:38:50]: Helicopters. I’ve recently seen reports of drones taking out helicopters in the air, and that this is new.Brandon [01:39:00]: Is that new? Is that going to be a big deal? Is that going to incre like, is that going to eventually get rid of helicopters the way drones are getting rid of tanks in the battlefield?Helicopters, Drone Carriers, and Future Air DefenseYaroslav [01:39:10]: Look, helicopters are also versatile assets. Front strike helicopters, I think we’re going to be seeing fewer and fewer of them. These few Russian helicopters that Ukraine’s intercepted with drones were more like edge cases than a systematic, sort of helicopter hunting campaign. I think it is possible to turn it into a systematic, countermeasure against helicopters.Brandon [01:39:38]: What kind of Will those be battery powered drones themselves, do you think?Yaroslav [01:39:41]: Potentially. And there are like so many different scenarios. Like you can have large aerial drone carriers carrying interceptor drones.Brandon [01:39:54]: That then go hit the helicopters.Yaroslav [01:39:56]: For example. Or you can have, battery powered interceptor drones, but not of a missile with a propeller type, as many of these well-known drones like Stinger or P-One Sun. They look like basically a missile with a quadcopter, behind it. But you can also have a plane or like fixed wing like, aerial interceptors.Brandon [01:40:25]: Does anyone, does anyone have like a little like, drone that flies super low under the helicopter and like shoots it from underneath?Yaroslav [01:40:33]: Like in theory you can imagine that but it’s justBrandon [01:40:37]: Or like surface, a drone that carries surface-to-air missiles somehow.Yaroslav [01:40:40]: I don’t think that’s very practical because whatever you have going on land will be just super slow and not fast enough to be able to hunt down a helicopter.Brandon [01:40:50]: I mean like in the in the air. Is it, is are is there a drone capable of carrying a small surface-to-air missile that can like skim, low and then launch its little missile, like a flying missile platform or something?Yaroslav [01:41:00]: In theory, but like a big part of a mission like that is not just kinetically getting to a helicopter, but also identifying it, either by means of first radar and then visually, and placing the asset you have, the interception asset you have in the right place in the right time. So the combination of those things is much more complex than just, how can we strike it like from behind or from below. But then helicopters are not, that does not mean they’re becoming like completely useless. Like for example, helicopters are used to intercept, deep strike drones. Like Ukraine uses a lot of helicopters to shoot down Shaheds.Yaroslav [01:41:44]: Russia uses helicopters to shoot down our deep strike drones.Counter-Drone Systems: Shotguns, EW, and Surviving FPVsBrandon [01:41:50]: A lot of people talk Oh, so Some ideas about drone countermeasures, things people do technologically to try to shoot down FPV drones or bomber drones or whatever.Brandon [01:42:03]: Dumb question that I probably already know the answer to but for the listeners, why can’t you use a shotgun? Shoot down drones that are coming after you. When you have like a Why can’t you just shoot the thing?Yaroslav [01:42:11]: That’s the main, weapon that people use against them.Brandon [01:42:15]: Why aren’t they very good?Yaroslav [01:42:17]: They’re pretty good. Like there are there are like hundreds, maybe thousands of cases of drones being shut down with shotguns, both by definitely thousands, but both by Ukrainians and Russians. There’s even like statistics ofBrandon [01:42:29]: Got itYaroslav [01:42:29]: What is the percentage of Ukraine FPV drones that didn’t accomplish the mission because they were shut down by a shotgun.Brandon [01:42:35]: Got it. So if I’m a guy with a shotgun, I’m walking around, FPV drone comes for meYaroslav [01:42:40]: I don’t recommend that.Brandon [01:42:42]: No. I don’t plan on it.Brandon [01:42:44]: I’m saying suppose that were the case. In or suppose there’s a there is a guy, he’s not me.Brandon [01:42:50]: He’s dumber than me, okay? He’s got a shotgun, he’s walking around. FPV drone is sent. Someone says, “Okay, there’s a guy walking around. Kill him. FPV drone go.”Brandon [01:43:00]: FPV drone goes after him. And he has a shotgun.Brandon [01:43:03]: What are his chances of using that shotgun to shoot down the drone before the drone gets him? Can Is Are you allowed to say that?Yaroslav [01:43:08]: Depending how good you are with a shotgun. I’ll tellBrandon [01:43:11]: Random dudeYaroslav [01:43:11]: Like I was I was talking to some Ukraine pilot group, and they told me like there was this Russian guy. He was just likeRambo.Yaroslav [01:43:20]: He’s like, he like, he shot down like seven FPV drones. They couldn’t, they couldn’t get him. They finally got him, but it was like nothing they’ve seen before, right?Brandon [01:43:30]: Got it.Brandon [01:43:30]: Your average non-Rambo.Yaroslav [01:43:32]: Average non-Rambo will just die.Brandon [01:43:34]: Will just die. So there’s like very low chance that they’ll be able to use a shotgun to shoot down the drones.Yaroslav [01:43:38]: Rather low chance. Yeah.Brandon [01:43:39]: Got it. Well, that was the kind of question I was getting at and there’s no, there’s no sort of portable electronic countermeasure that can get FPV drones if you’re just holding it, very effectively.Yaroslav [01:43:50]: There are plenty of it just, depends on it’s always like Electronic countermeasures are used all across the front line. The tricky thing is electronic countermeasures cover certain, radio electronic bands of frequencies.Brandon [01:44:06]: Let me simplify my question. Sorry.Yaroslav [01:44:07]: Like each side tries to tries to find frequency Will not be covered.Brandon [01:44:10]: Let me simplify my question. Is there a man portable system that will give me a greater than 50% chance of living if an FPV drone specifically targets me to come kill me right now?Yaroslav [01:44:21]: Look, if your system jams the frequency the drone works on and the drone doesn’t have optic fiber or a last mile autonomy, then you have 100% chance that it will, it will not fly towards you. But then what is the chance to not have drone that can either use different frequency or autonomy or fiber optic? Well, that depends on the on the area you’re in and who’s your adversary in that area, in that zone.Brandon [01:44:51]: Let’s I guess this question was maybe too dumb that I was trying to ask.Yaroslav [01:44:57]: No, it’s a great question. There are no dumb questions here, and it is just like my answers, if you feel the common theme here, is that things in practice, in war, things are way more complex than they seem.Brandon [01:45:11]: What, but so I want, like, I want I’ve read tons of things that say that basically if you’re walking around in the open and drones come for you’re not 100% dead, but you’re probably dead, and I’ve read a bunch of things that say that. I want Listeners to understand why, like, people, who are paying a tiny bit of attention to this debate, to this issue from far away intermittently in America, who don’t, I think don’t understand the weakness of our military against this kind of attack Against drone attack.Yaroslav [01:45:48]: I think there was IBrandon [01:45:49]: Have a lot of mechanisms, psychological mechanisms by which they cope with the mental idea of drones. I would like to bust those mechanisms by explaining why drones defeat in human infantry on the battlefield.Yaroslav [01:46:01]: It’s just A guided bomb flying at you, and it knows exactly where you are right? It’s not that it’s the ultimate weapon, but I think like one of the things that went viral in Ukrainian defense tech bubble, even before the words of the CEO of Rheinmetall, was some American, tank, battle tank pilot, who was interviewed and he was he was asked whether he’s afraid of FPV drones, and he’s like, “No, it’s like we have Our tanks are strong.” And that went viral among Ukrainians because they’re like, “Dude, you have no idea what you’re talking about.” Like, “Don’t mess with those drones.”like, Abrams tank, great tank, but against an FPV drone, sorry, dude, but it’Brandon [01:46:54]: Not just deadlyYaroslav [01:46:54]: Not going to work.Brandon [01:46:55]: Deadly.Yaroslav [01:46:55]: No, I was like, maybe not from one drone, but like a dozen drones will take it out. So yeah. But there is hope. So you just have to have kinetic countermeasures. Interesting thing-Brandon [01:47:10]: Kinetic countermeasure means a thing that shoots down the drone.Yaroslav [01:47:13]: Can mean many things. So if you, if you go to Ukrainian east and sort of territories close to the front lines, I think like about 50 kilometers in from the front line, all the roads are covered by fish nets.Yaroslav [01:47:31]: You literally, you ride in a corridor of fish nets, and that’s the mechanical countermeasure against the drone.Brandon [01:47:39]: You count that as a kinetic countermeasure?Yaroslav [01:47:41]: Mechanical. It says mechanical. Yeah.Brandon [01:47:42]: Got it. Got it.Brandon [01:47:43]: I don’t know all the jargon, so it’s, I’m, I’Yaroslav [01:47:45]: Whatever.Brandon [01:47:45]: What I’m talking about.Yaroslav [01:47:46]: Whatever. Then the tanks, if you look at Russian tanks and sometimes Ukrainian tanks or equipment They all look like Porcupines. They have these long sticking, I don’t know, poles? We talked about poles already on this podcast.Brandon [01:48:05]: Different kind of poles.Yaroslav [01:48:05]: Different kind of poles.Brandon [01:48:06]: A third kind of poles.Yaroslav [01:48:06]: That’s the way to protect from drone. That’s to make to that’s the way to make the drone detonate, maybe half a meter or a meter away from the actual shell of the tank. Or yeah, sometimes there are like nets on top of these tanks, just welded on some extra, sort of equipment. Then of course, there are guns ThatYaroslav [01:48:35]: Like what both Russians and Ukraine or Ukrainians are beginning to experiment with is Kind of interceptor drone, anti-FPV interceptor drone, which you put on top of something like a gun, like harpoon sort of thing, and when you see like a drone coming at you, maybe you can notice or hear it from 200 meters or 100 meters. So you have a couple of seconds, and you grab that thing, you point it, and you fire it, and then onboard it has certain AI that helps it to guide the small drone towards an attacking drone and intercept it that way. So those are the things that are being developed and like, we’re working on some of these things as well, and then you can imagine like an armor with -Hundreds on of drones on top of it, which are protector drones. They’re sort of like active armor. Whenever they see a drone-Brandon [01:49:27]: HuhYaroslav [01:49:27]: Coming at you, they, like, take off.Lasers, Skynex, and the Cost-to-Effect ProblemBrandon [01:49:29]: That’s cool. What about, what about the kind of things that the Germans are building, which is basically like a big truck with a some sort of automated shotgun on it?Yaroslav [01:49:40]: Like they have Skynex. It’s, by Rheinmetall, by the guy whom we mentioned today. Skynex is considered to be an okay weapon. Their shots are quite expensive though. So I’ll tell you this different story, aboutBrandon [01:50:00]: It’s about cost to fire each shot really and stuff.Yaroslav [01:50:03]: Cost to effect in a sort of a more abstract way. So I was last year I was speaking at Land Europe Conference. It’s the biggest USAA, USA Army, conference in Europe, called Land Europe. And There was an expo there, and there was like a Raytheon, a RTX booth there. And Raytheon is an amazing company. Gosh, we love Raytheon. They’re making Patriots. Patriots are the best. And they make a bunch of other things. And they had this laser gun project there basically.Brandon [01:50:44]: That’s what I was going to ask about next is laser.Yaroslav [01:50:46]: Laser thing was like they have it in two variations, two kilowatt, sorry, 10 kilowatt laser and 20 kilowatt laser. I’m like, “Okay, 10 kilowatt laser, tell me about it.” He’s like, “Can it take down an FPV drone?” I’m like, “Yes, of course it can.” I’m like, “Okay, cool. How much time does it take to take down an FPV drone?” And they’re like, “Well, maybe three seconds.” I’m like, “three seconds. That’s like a lot of time. But okay, maybe fine. And what if FPV drone tries to evade, right?” And he’s like, “Well, we will retarget it again.” And it’s like, “And then three seconds start again?”“Yeah.”“Okay. Well, can it take down like a dozen FPV drones?” They’re like, “Yeah, for sure.” I’m like, “Okay, a dozen FPV drones, 30 seconds? Maybe, yes. Two kilometers? Maybe yes, maybe no.” And I’m like, “Okay, how much does it cost?” And he said something like $3 million or something like that.Yaroslav [01:51:44]: I’m like, “Okay, $3 million. So that is 6,000 FPV drones.Yaroslav [01:51:51]: I doubt this thing will be able to handle 6,000 FPV drones or even 600 FPV drones coming at it at the same time.” So you have this kind of economic. And this product may not be necessarily a product against an FPV drone. It might Or against an FPV drone in an active battlefield environment. It might be guarding a stadium in a peaceful country. And then, some random dudes launch a couple drones above a stadium, shoot them down. Okay, everyone’s happy, although the drone will fall down, maybe fall on someone’s head. That wouldn’t be cool. So you would want something like catching bad drones with a net above a stadium or something like that. But whatever.Yaroslav [01:52:33]: My point is the economics mattersBrandon [01:52:35]: You’re talking about the 6,000 drones. If you sent them one by one, it wouldn’t, it would just be pew.Yaroslav [01:52:40]: But who would send them one by one?Brandon [01:52:40]: If you sent a mass of 6,000, it wouldn’Yaroslav [01:52:42]: Of course, yeah.Brandon [01:52:46]: What about just like a more powerful laser, like 100, kilowatt laser or something that wouldn’t need to spend, that wouldYaroslav [01:52:51]: No, that’s worse. You need less powerful laser that achieves the same effect.Brandon [01:52:56]: For cost of the system.Yaroslav [01:52:56]: A more powerful, yeah, a more powerful laser would be more expensive, heavier, more difficult to transport. It will be more difficult to make many of them. And therefore you wouldn’t be able to cover a long front line, and would be super expensive to replace if it gets damaged, all of those issues. So the reason why FPV drones or iPhones become so popular is because they’re small and everyone can have one? And so is with the countermeasures. So that’s, you were asking me about sort of policy advice. So that’s like another sort of mental shift that you got to go through. It’s no longer about an aircraft carrier that costs whatever, $14 billion and takes forever to build. It’s about mass, that is you can iterate on very quickly. You can upgrade it. Everyone can operate it. And then that mass when it is combined or the technologies when they’re, extrapolated from like one domain to another domain, they add up, right, as it happens with software. So I think that’s important.Noah [01:54:14]: Can I ask a follow-up question? So Russia is not necessarily the smartest army you could be fighting. What would happen if you, your adversary was smarter? Do you think things would change meaningfully?Yaroslav [01:54:31]: Look, I don’t know if I fully agree with not the smartest army. Who is the smartest army?Brandon [01:54:37]: Ukraine?Noah [01:54:38]: That’s a great question.Yaroslav [01:54:40]: I don’t know. I don’t know.Yaroslav [01:54:43]: I think those are like, very dangerous assumptions to make.Brandon [01:54:48]: Who was the smartest army in World War I?Yaroslav [01:54:51]: Like, well, define smart.Russia’s Strategy, Western Assumptions, and Preparing for WarBrandon [01:54:53]: The United States. Yeah.Yaroslav [01:54:53]: Why do you think so?Yaroslav [01:54:55]: Why do you think Russia is not the smartest army?Noah [01:54:56]: Maybe this is just my own, information bubble.Yaroslav [01:55:00]: I’m just like, maybe I agree with you. But I’m just like, I’m naturally wired To challenge those assumptions.Noah [01:55:06]: No, that’s a that’s a really good point. I guess, when I, from my information bubble, it seems like Russia’s strategy has largely been to just throw resources, people-Yaroslav [01:55:17]: You are living in a Western propaganda Information bubble, of course.Yaroslav [01:55:21]: Like, as am I.Yaroslav [01:55:22]: Like, because we’re all rooting Ukraine to win, right? Sorry, go on.Noah [01:55:26]: In but going back to this granted there’s a history of large powers failing to take over smaller, -Strategically, youYaroslav [01:55:38]: Divide and GoliathNoah [01:55:40]: They, thisBrandon [01:55:40]: They fail a lot more now than they used to. The success rate of taking-Noah [01:55:44]: That’s trueBrandon [01:55:44]: Places over has gone way down.Noah [01:55:46]: Certainly, yeah. But regardless, it does, I do wonder, like, if Russia had not essentially assumed victory early It may have different, yeahYaroslav [01:55:56]: I, like, they’re super stupid, of course.Yaroslav [01:55:58]: Like, they were marching at With their parade, costumes and like, they were thinking they’re going to have a parade in Kyiv in a few days. Like, that was super stupid. And like, there were lots of stupid things that are like they have no regard, no care for human life. They’re sending those Russian folks just, like, without armor, without anything, like folks on crutches, like sending them to storm Ukrainian positions. And it’sBrandon [01:56:23]: They’re the Zerg.Noah [01:56:23]: You think at this point there’sYaroslav [01:56:24]: I have, like, I have actually a good friend. He’s American. He’s from Seattle. He’s, served, had been in the Special Forces here in the US, had been in maybe three deployments, and then went to Ukraine, volunteered.Yaroslav [01:56:39]: He’s been fighting since, like, 2022. He’s a very good friend of mine. So at some point he’s like, he’s been texting me, and he’s like, “Okay, I’m near Pokrovsk,”and sorry, not Pokrovsk. It was gosh, the other city, Chasiv Yar.Yaroslav [01:56:55]: It, and he’s like, “Okay, so what Russians are doing, they’re just creating so much work for all the all the psychologists who are going to heal those Ukrainian, whatever, riflemen or machine gunmen, who are just, like, shooting at the Russians who are like, going nonstop,”right? So it’s like causing, or Russians are causing psychological trauma on Ukrainians because they’re dying in such stupid way.Noah [01:57:26]: JeezYaroslav [01:57:26]: That is indeed stupid of sort of Russian higher command, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But then that’s the resource they have. AndBrandon [01:57:38]: If you’ve got, if you’ve got Zerglings, you use your Zerglings.Yaroslav [01:57:40]: That’s the way. That’s their strategy. That’s their way of strategy, right?Brandon [01:57:43]: If you’re going to play Back in the That’s what you do.Yaroslav [01:57:46]: If you play StarCraft, that’s how Zergs win.Brandon [01:57:48]: Are Ukrainians the Terrans?Yaroslav [01:57:52]: I don’t know. I hope we will become Protoss soon.Yaroslav [01:57:57]: I’m working on that. I’m working on that.Brandon [01:58:02]: Protoss had fairly bad political management at the topYaroslav [01:58:04]: I wish Protoss with a speed closer to like, humans or Terrans, whatever it is. Hopefully we can do Protoss technology with a Zerg speed. That would be the best. I think that’s what the housewives are working on in fact.Brandon [01:58:20]: You cannot beat those housewives. Do not oppose Ukrainian housewives.Yaroslav [01:58:23]: Do not mess with Ukrainian housewives, for sure. Yeah.Noah [01:58:26]: Two final questions. First one, you started out by telling us a story about going to a chapel on February 23rd.Noah [01:58:34]: Were you able to get married there? Can you finish that story?Yaroslav [01:58:40]: We actually, we did get married, but we postponed the wedding as a social event, until the war is over.Noah [01:58:49]: Then last question, what do you want our audience to take away? If you have one point you want them to walk away with what would it be?Yaroslav [01:58:58]: You want peace, be prepared for war. Got to invest in defense and security.Noah [01:59:04]: All right. Thanks. Thank you for talking with us.Yaroslav [01:59:06]: Thank you.Noah [01:59:07]: Thank you, Noah, for all the great questions.Yaroslav [01:59:11]: No, it was fantastic.Yaroslav [01:59:12]: Thanks so much.Brandon [01:59:13]: Really fun.Noah [01:59:13]: Awesome. Thanks. This is a public episode. 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• AI-Native Healthcare: 100M Doctor Visits, 10–20 Hours Saved, Prior Auth in Minutes — Janie Lee & Chai Asawa, Abridge 14.05.2026 1h 5min

  Special discounts up for AIE Melbourne (LS discount) and AIE World’s Fair (group discounts up to 25% - CFPs still open for Autoresearch and Vertical AI) Cya there!Abridge did not start as an “GPT wrapper”. It was founded in 2018, years before the Cambrian explosion of AI application layer companies. OpenAI launched ChatGPT publicly on November 30, 2022 and by then, Abridge had already spent years doing the unglamorous work of building trust for one of the highest context, most important workflows in healthcare: the conversation between a patient and a clinician.Abridge’s original wedge was clinical documentation. Listen to the visit, generate the note, reduce the clerical burden, and let clinicians spend more time with patients instead of the EHR. By focusing on how doctors actually document, how health systems actually buy, how EHR integration actually works, how clinicians verify outputs, and how missing context during a visit turns into downstream friction across billing, prior authorization, quality, and follow-up, the adoption of LLMs became a force multiplier on a workflow already optimized for sensitive context gathering.The company has scaled fast: Abridge says it is projected to support 80M+ patient-clinician conversations this year across 250 large and complex U.S. health systems, with support for 28+ languages and 50+ specialties. It raised $300M at a $5.3B valuation in June 2025, after a $250M round earlier that year.Today, Janie Lee and Chaitanya “Chai” Asawa of Abridge join us for another crossover pod with Redpoint’s Jacob Effron (who is on the board of Abridge) to dive into how Abridge is building the clinical intelligence layer for healthcare starting with ambient documentation, then expanding into clinical decision support, prior authorization, payer/provider/pharma workflows, and eventually real-time agents that act before, during, and after the patient conversation. We go inside the product, data, infra, evals, workflow, privacy, and org design choices behind bringing AI into one of the highest-stakes enterprise environments from 100M+ medical conversations and specialty-specific evals to real-time alerts, EHR integration, de-identification, clinician-scientist teams, and why healthcare may solve some of the hardest AI problems first.We discuss:* Why Abridge started with clinical documentation, “pajama time,” and saving clinicians 10–20 hours a week* The transition from ambient scribe to clinical intelligence layer: save time, save money, and save lives* Why conversations between patients and clinicians may be the most important workflow in healthcare (patient visit summary feature)* Chai’s “healthcare-coded Glean” framing: context is king, but healthcare raises the stakes on safety, evals, and rollout* Why Abridge wants AI to feel like “air conditioning”: always in the background, but only interrupting when it truly matters* The prior authorization example: turning a denied MRI weeks later into real-time guidance while the patient is still in the room* Why payer policies, EHR data, medical literature, and hospital-specific guidelines make the problem hard, and also create the moat* How Abridge thinks about ambient form factors: mobile, desktop, in-room devices, nursing workflows, multimodality, and future AR* The multi-sided healthcare customer: CMIOs, CFOs, CIOs, clinicians, patients, payers, and pharma* The hardest AI problem at Abridge: high-quality, low-latency, low-cost real-time support in a high-stakes clinical setting* When Abridge uses frontier models vs proprietary models, and why its unique data from medical conversations matters* Why “every agent is a coding agent underneath,” and how the EHR can be thought of as a filesystem for healthcare agents* How Abridge approaches personalization across individual doctors, specialties, and health systems* Why “AI slop” is AI without context, and how edits, memories, and clinician preferences create a data flywheel* Abridge’s eval stack: LFDs, LLM judges, in-house clinicians, third-party evaluators, specialty-specific evals, and progressive rollout* HIPAA, PHI, de-identification, one-way anonymization, customer contracts, and learning from healthcare data safely* What changes when you operate at 100M+ conversations: reliability, cost, post-training, model routing, and infrastructure optimization* Why the same clinical conversation can serve doctors, patients, payers, pharma, and future clinical-trial workflows* How Abridge works with EHRs, and why deep interoperability is table stakes for clinician adoption* Why healthcare AI has regulatory tailwinds, why 80/20 does not work here, and why high-stakes domains may drive AI forward* Why Abridge embeds “clinician scientists” into product and eval teams* What Chai learned from Glean about search, quality, and durable AI infrastructure* Why the future of AI infra may look like context layers, event-driven systems, Kafka, Temporal, sockets, CRDTs, and tools built for humans* Why Janie changed her mind on “PRDs are dead,” and why crisp written clarity matters more in complex AI products* How Abridge uses Claude Code, Cursor, and coding agents internallyAbridge:* Website: https://www.abridge.com/* X: https://x.com/AbridgeHQJanie Lee:* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/janiejleeChaitanya “Chai” Asawa:* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/casawaTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction and what Abridge does00:02:05 From ambient documentation to clinical intelligence00:04:04 Clinical decision support and context as king00:06:57 Alert fatigue, proactive intelligence, and prior authorization00:12:36 Ambient AI form factors and healthcare customers00:16:59 The hardest AI problems in healthcare00:18:26 Frontier models, proprietary data, and model strategy00:21:07 The EHR as a filesystem for agents00:24:03 Personalization, memory, and clinician preferences00:30:40 Evals, LLM judges, and progressive rollout00:36:47 HIPAA, de-identification, and privacy00:39:21 100M conversations and operating at scale00:44:10 EHR integration and the clinical intelligence layer00:46:39 Healthcare regulation, latency, and high-stakes AI00:50:11 Clinician scientists and long-tail quality00:53:04 Lessons from Glean and durable AI infrastructure00:57:03 The future of agentic healthcare workflows00:57:34 PRDs, product clarity, and building serious AI products01:03:11 AI coding tools at Abridge01:04:06 OutroTranscriptIntroduction: Abridge, Clinical Intelligence, and the Latent Space x Unsupervised Learning CrossoverSwyx [00:00:00]: Okay. This is a special crossover Latent Space Unsupervised Learning pod.Jacob [00:00:07]: Very excited to do this.Jacob [00:00:08]: At this point, we get together once a year.Swyx [00:00:10]: Once a yearJacob [00:00:11]: And this is a fun occasion to get to do it on.Swyx [00:00:13]: I really wanted to talk to Abridge but I felt very underqualified because healthcare is not something we cover very intensely. It just so happens that Redpoint’s our big investors and supporters of Abridge.Jacob [00:00:27]: Anytime you want to have a portfolio company on your podcastJacob [00:00:29]: Please, by all means.Swyx [00:00:31]: So we’ll introduce our guests. Chai and Janie, welcome to the pod.Janie [00:00:34]: Thanks for having us.Chai [00:00:35]: Thank you.Janie [00:00:35]: We’re excited to be here.Chai [00:00:36]: Thank you.Swyx [00:00:36]: So for listeners, what do you guys do, just to situate you guys in the company?Janie [00:00:42]: Abridge is a clinical intelligence layer for health systems. We really started with documentation and building for clinicians and as we think about reducing the burden that clinicians have, they’re spending 10 to 20 hours a week on documentation. There’s a massive doctor shortage in the country. We also think that conversations between patients and clinicians are probably the most important workflow in healthcare. It’s where care is given and received but if you think about the 20% of our GDP that goes towards healthcare, almost everything is a derivative of that conversation, whether it’s the claim, the payment, the actual diagnosis given, the treatment. And we’ve started with a conversation to reduce the burden for doctors on documentation but we’re really excited about the path ahead as we become this broader clinical intelligence layer.Chai [00:01:34]: I’m Chai. I work on clinical decision support at Abridge.Swyx [00:01:37]: Yes.Chai [00:01:37]: And so as Janie said, we’re uniquely situated where we started off with the clinical note. What I’m really excited about and where we’re expanding towards is what are all the things you can do before the conversation, during the conversation and after the conversation if you did have access to all the context about patients, payer guidelines, medical literature and put that together and to serve, how healthcare could look fundamentally different.Swyx [00:02:01]: And that’s the context engine that you guys have?Chai [00:02:04]: Yes.Swyx [00:02:04]: Is that what it’s called? Okay.Swyx [00:02:05]: So historically, as I understand it, the company started in 2018. A lot of people would be familiar with the AI voice notes form factor that doctors would be “Well, do you consent to being recorded?” It replaces handwriting and what have you. But it sounds like more recently there’s been a big transition in the company. Tell me about the broader transition.From Documentation to Clinical Intelligence: Save Time, Save Money, Save LivesJanie [00:02:26]: So from a transition perspective, we really think about our journey as The first act was: how do we help save time? And that’s where a lot of that original product was.Swyx [00:02:37]: By the way, one of those interesting statsSwyx [00:02:39]: On your landing page was, doctors spend time after hours.Janie [00:02:43]: They call it pajama time.Swyx [00:02:44]: Why is that pajama time?Janie [00:02:46]: Doctors after work in their pajamasSwyx [00:02:48]: In their pajamas. OhJanie [00:02:49]: At home are just writing and catching up on their notes every day.Janie [00:02:53]: Some of our favorite customer love stories, we have a Slack channel called Love Stories. We have clinicians telling us, “Abridge has helped us, from retiring early or we’re now finally able toJanie [00:03:06]: go home and eat dinner with our kids for the first time.”Chai [00:03:08]: Save the marriage in some cases.Swyx [00:03:10]: One of the quotes was “We’re not divorcing anymore.”Swyx [00:03:12]: I’m asking, “Why?”Swyx [00:03:14]: Because they’re working too much.Janie [00:03:16]: But, in terms of where we’re going and where we’re expanding, we really think about our second and third acts around how do we help health systems save and make more money. Health systems are operating with record-low operating margins. It’s getting harder and harder to serve patients and they have regulatory, some tailwinds but also a lot of headwinds coming their way and AI is ripe for helping on the saving and make-more-money piece. And then ultimately, how do we help save lives? The fact that our software and our product is open millions of times a week before, during and after a patient walks in the room, gives us massive opportunity with products like clinical decision support, which Chai is building but so many others to improve patient outcomes and probably one of the most important workflows and problems to be going after right now.From Glean to Healthcare: Context Is KingJacob [00:04:04]: One thing that’s interesting, Chai, is you came over to Abridge from Glean and clinical decision support, which for our listeners is, in the context of a visit, helping a doctor figure out the right type of care. It’s really a search problem in many ways, going through lots of different data sources. Very analogous to your previous role as one of the earliest engineers over at Glean. I’m sure a lot of our listeners are curious what’s similar about the problems that you’re going after now and what feels different, now that you’re in healthcare.Chai [00:04:33]: Very similar. Taking a step back, with every wave, there’s a lot of very similar patterns that happen across different products. A lot of social networking products look the same. A lot of credit-based products look the same. And we’re seeing that very similar in the agent era with many companies, of course, in Redpoint’s portfolio and so forth. And the key insight between both companies is that you have amazing models but context is king. Context is what puts them to work. So I see it in a lot of ways, a lot of similarities in this is a healthcare-coded version of Glean but the differences are really interesting. A couple things that come to mind. First and foremost, the rigor of the setting we’re in. The downside risk is extremely high here in healthcare. It can be fatal in some cases. You prescribe something that the patient is allergic to for example. Whereas at Glean, it’s “Oh, you got the question wrong.” It wasn’t the end of the world in most cases. And so what does that mean? That shapes our evaluation strategy, both offline evaluation, progressive rollout and there’s a lot more we could go into there. Second thing that comes to mind is, vertical versus horizontal. In both cases, there’s a large variance but when Glean is, it’s a much more horizontal company, there’s a variance of personas, companies that you’re working with. We also have a variance of personas, different types of specialties, different hospital systems. But the variance is a little more narrow. So from a product perspective, you’re able to focus far more, especially when you have a maturing technology and you’re building new products that never existed before. It lets you go after them much more easily and especially in healthcare where so many problems were solved with labor and process, that it’s extremely ripe for AI to keep helping augment and enable. And the final thing that’s really interesting, Abridge specifically compared to many other companies in the AI area, is the modality we started with where we’re ambient and we’re always listening in the background. And many more AI products will go that way but it’s how we started. And that’s the greatest form of AI we can create, AI that’s seamless. You’re not looking at your screen. It’s always there. It’s always helping you out and being proactive. The Jarvis vision that, every hackathon I went to over the past decade, there was always a Jarvis competitor. But Abridge very much started from the opportunity and continues to go that way.Ambient AI and Alert Fatigue: When Should the Product Interrupt?Jacob [00:06:57]: One thing that is super interesting then from a product perspective is you have this always-on seamless in the background and then you have to decide when you break the wall almost and say, “Hey, clinician, you might not have thought about X,” or whatever it is that you want to do. And in healthcare traditionally there’s been this idea of alert fatigue and a million pop-ups and then a doctor just ignores all of them. It’s probably a pattern that a lot of builders are thinking through now. How do you think about the right way to intervene or to pop up in a doctor visit?Janie [00:07:26]: It’s such a good question. Alerts are notorious in healthcare specifically. Over 90% of alerts are ignored. The first and most important thing is context is everything, as Chai alluded to and I also think about how do we go from being reactive alerting to really proactive intelligence at the point at which it matters most. One thing we like to say is we want our product to feel like air conditioning. It should be in the background just making things better and if there is something that has great clinical risk and we’re acutely aware that intervening now and not later is incredibly important, we should decide to act. But if you think about proactive versus reactive, instead of alerting a clinician during a visit when they’re with their patient having a pretty serious and sensitive conversation, how do we prep a clinician before they walk into the room with that patient? And so historically, clinicians might have to manually go through charts with a patient that they’ve had over the course of months or years and they’ll try to suss out what are the things they should be doing. You can imagine a world with Abridge. We’ll summarize all of the most recent context for you, tell you based on the reason for a visit the patient is coming in for the types of things you should be discussing. And so you’re going into that conversation prepped rather than walking in cold to that patient visit and then having this product interrupt you five or 10 times throughout the visit. And there might be times where it’s really important to interrupt. We have a product called Prior Authorization and so this is when you may go into a doctor’s office with knee pain. They’ll prescribe you an MRI and so many of us have had this experience before, where in four weeks you’ll get a call saying, “Hey, Sean, that MRI that you were prescribed wasn’t approved and why don’t you come back in? We’ll figure it out.” In a world with Abridge, we might choose to quietly but still alert a doctor in that visit. And alert is probably not even the word we would want to use. Before a patient leaves, we would want to tell the doctor, “Hey, Doctor, before Sean leaves, you should ask him, has he had physical therapy and has his pain lasted for more than six weeks? Because the Aetna plan that he’s on in California requires six things. We’ve already confirmed four of them have been met ‘cause we have all the context. But these two last criteria, if you can address with Sean before he leaves the room, we could guarantee that your MRI is approved before you leave.” And so when you think about clinical usefulness, impact to the patient, there are instances in which if we can catch a doctor while the patient is still in the room, as we think about save time, save money, save lives, we get to check all of those boxes. But when doctors have 15 minutes between visits, we have to be really thoughtful about when it matters.Prior Authorization: Reducing Latency in CareChai [00:10:23]: There’s this interesting product opportunity AI has is reducing latency in the world. For example, prior authorization is an example of where care gets delayed and so great AI can reduce that. And the problem with alerts before partially is a technical problem: the quality of your alerts really matters. They’re going to get ignored if you get alerts that... Similarly in engineering, where they’re noisy alerts that you can’t act on. But if you can make really high-quality alerts with both the context, as Janie said, and really high-quality models, then you can create a whole other game.Janie [00:10:53]: And I really like that experience because it starts to tease apart, what makes this so hard and unique. One, to make that prior authorization example possible, think about all the data that you need to have. You need to integrate with the electronic health record to know all of the patient context. Do we have access to your previous labs, previous imaging? And then to match you and to know that you’re on Aetna, we have to collect all of the different payer policies and they vary by state. Some of these payer policies live on websites. Some of them live in unstructured 50-page PDF files.Jacob [00:11:31]: I thought this episode wasJacob [00:11:31]: To make sure we didn’t scare people from healthcare.Janie [00:11:34]: But when you think about the things that make it hard, it also gives you the moat.Janie [00:11:39]: And then the second is the AI and the model quality we need to be able to hang our hat on. And so the bar, similarly when I worked at Opendoor, I worked on pricing models. Every outlier wiped out the margins of 30 and so similarly here in healthcare, the bar for accuracy is so high. And then I’d say the last is workflow is everything. If insurance companies deploy AI, it typically happens too late and this is when you have the notorious comical examples of AI just fighting each other when it’s too late. But if we can pull forward the use of both the AI but also the ability to solve problems when the patient’s in the room, you can start to collapse what typically takes weeks or months after your visit, ideally down to minutes or real-time. And it’s where healthcare is both very difficult but also extremely rewarding if you can crack it.Product Form Factors: Mobile, Desktop, In-Room Devices, and ARSwyx [00:12:36]: Just to get some baseline on the form factors, because I’ve seen some videos on your website and stuff. You guys talk a lot about ambient AI. Is it primarily on the phone? Is there any other form factor that people get Abridge in? Is there an Abridge room setup where it’s always on? I don’t know.Jacob [00:12:55]: An Abridge podcast studio.Janie [00:12:58]: Primary form factor is mobile and desktop. UsuallyJanie [00:13:00]: Clinicians are walking in and out of rooms with mobile but at the end of the day, when they’re closing out their notes or wanting to prep for the day ahead, they might use desktop. We have been having a lot of really interesting partnership conversations with a lot of these in-room device companies as you think about the power of multimodality and even more data, as you think about all of what is not captured today. It is fascinating to think about, especially even as we go into building and scaling our nursing product. It’s one where nurses constantly, as they’re walking in to check in on a patient for two minutes or maybe even 30 seconds,Janie [00:13:43]: Starting an Abridge experience is probably going to take longer than the visit. And so what can we do with in-room devices that are always on starts to raise really interesting and fun product questions.Swyx [00:13:54]: I was thinking, the way in tech companies we have all these Google MeetSwyx [00:13:58]: And other things, we might as well set up entire rooms with just Abridge tech.Chai [00:14:02]: Very much. AR glasses and related form factors are also relevant: how do we bring the information to the clinician in real-time without a screen, while still letting them focus on the patient?Swyx [00:14:18]: Do you think they want that? I’m skeptical of AR, but I’m curious what you’ve tried.Chai [00:14:26]: Admittedly, it’s not a near-term product roadmapChai [00:14:29]: By any means. I’m being far-fetched.Jacob [00:14:31]: There’s some sick AR stuff for surgeries.Swyx [00:14:33]: Really?Jacob [00:14:33]: When people are trying to visualize, you’re about to make an incision but you want to see, what the cut might look or what the body might look like inside and they can layer in imaging.Swyx [00:14:43]: That’s cool.Chai [00:14:45]: At some point in the future.Janie [00:14:46]: But there are a lot of our largest customers and at the largest health systems integrating already and so even as we think about building into it, unlocks a lot of product capabilities.Swyx [00:14:57]: And just to establish the terminology. Sorry, and I know I’m asking basic questions somewhat for myself but also for the audience who might beHealth Systems, Buyers, Clinicians, Patients, and PayersSwyx [00:15:05]: Less integrated. When you say health systems, it’s like the Johns Hopkins, the Kaiser Permanentes.Janie [00:15:09]: Mayos, the Kaisers of the world.Swyx [00:15:10]: These are your customers, right? And the outcome that you deliver for them is happier doctors, reduced cost of processing, reduced mistakes. It’s weird in a sense that I feel like there’s also, a secondary customer, the customer of the customer and I don’t know if you — do you think about it that way?Janie [00:15:28]: The other interesting and complex part of building product is we have our buyers, who are the chief medical information officersJanie [00:15:39]: The chief financial officers, the CIOs of these large health systems. Our users today are clinicians but if you think about who downstream is impacted, it’s patients. And so as we build, with every product in mind, we think about who we’re building for, who the secondary user is and what does that mean either in terms of experience, security compliance, ROI that we have to make tangible. And so like you said, time savings is one of them. But for CFOs, they care a lot more than just time savings. We have to show for every dollar you put into Abridge, because you have more compliant documentation or because you have fewer queries coming from your billing team, we save or add real dollars to your bottom line or top line, are things that we’re constantly thinking about because of the dynamic across all three sets of users.Chai [00:16:32]: There’s a whole other axis too with the payers and pharmaChai [00:16:35]: as well. Connecting all these three big stakeholders in healthcare isSwyx [00:16:39]: Do the payers ever see your data? Sorry, the payers meaning the insurers, right?Chai [00:16:44]: Yes.Swyx [00:16:44]: They also see Abridge data?Chai [00:16:47]: NoSwyx [00:16:47]: Like the direct integration to you guysChai [00:16:48]: They wouldn’t see the raw Abridge data but when you’re working together on something like prior authorization, whatever information they need, we’d communicate to them.Jacob [00:16:59]: That’s cool. I would love to dig into the AI side. You still have a lot of problems on the AI side. And so maybe to start at the highest level, what’s one of the hardest problems you have to solve in AI at Abridge today?The Hardest AI Problems: Quality, Latency, and CostChai [00:17:11]: To make things simple, let’s take, building off the prior auth example. So one thing Janie talked about is okay, this data is all over the place and there’s this combinatorial explosion of procedures, payer policies and even sometimes different health systems. There can be some cross-product of all of these different considerations you have to take into account. But what’s really hard about this problem is doing it real-time in the conversation. So, in any AI product, usually the three KPIs you care about are quality, latency and cost. Now, what we’re saying is we want you to do this real-time in the conversation, guiding the clinician. How do we do it in a way that does not break the bank? But we’re using — But we also need very intelligent models because you’re working with this cross-product of data and this, all this context layer as well. So you need high intelligence and high-quality because you don’t want the alert fatigue but you also need to be fast and cost-effective. And so that’s where a lot of clever engineering goes. It’s okay, without getting into all the details here, can you model these policies in some intermediate representation or other things that you can do that can make this problem tractable? And of course, the Pareto frontier is always changing but we are also trying to do this now.Model Strategy: Third-Party Models, Proprietary Data, and Medical ConversationsJacob [00:18:26]: What implications has that had for what you take off-the-shelf and say, “ what? We don’t need to be world-class at X. We’ll just take this from the model providers or from some infrastructure player,” and what you’re “No, this is where we spend most of our time focused on”?Chai [00:18:38]: This is, the fun challenge in AI?Jacob [00:18:42]: It changes every three months? SoChai [00:18:42]: Of course, with the shifting landscape, we try to be extremely thoughtful on predicting the trends of where third-party models are going and where we can uniquely go. And, sometimes when you talk about AI models, we’re the models are just going to get infinitely better. But I don’t think... It may be in the grandness of time you could say that but, within every month, every quarter, there’s specific ways they’re getting better. They’re training on a lot more, coding data to be better coding agents, for example. And soChai [00:19:14]: We have to think about where are the things that won’t — unique data that we’re uniquely training on or to step back a little, where is a proprietary model bringing advantage to us is if it can give higher quality or lower cost and latency for similar quality, very similar to many other companies. And when we can do that is when we have proprietary data. So, for example, we have on the order of eighty million or hundreds of millions now getting close to of medical conversations.Jacob [00:19:44]: It’s insane.Chai [00:19:45]: This is a unique data set. And this data set, it’s very interesting because this data set is effectively a large part of the trace between the patient and the provider. That’s where the quote-unquote debugging happens in healthcare. We have these traces at scale, as in as, our CEOs even called it, an exhaust that comes out of our product. And so when you have these traces, that’s how you can train better agents on certain use cases, whether it’s your transcription diarization use cases or so on or like note generation models and we can do that much cheaper and faster. But we’re always also working with these third-party model providers. We closely collaborate with them and that’s how we predict where the trends are going. The thing that I think about a lot is that, I know that the model providers are going to train much more on agentic workflows and so forth, so that’s great, so that you have a better agentic harness. But the other thing that’s interesting is that the model providers, because a large class of the consumer model providers is healthcare queries, that they might, optimize to train a lot of healthcare data to encode the knowledge in its weights. And this is just a great thing for us as well, where the off-the-shelf models can keep bett-getting better at general healthcare information, such that what our strategy is, we have a constellation of models, we can use something for this, that and, we only care about, at the end of the day, the best product experience.EHR as File System: Agentic Workflows and Real-Time InterfacesJacob [00:21:07]: And, you have, overall capabilities improving. I’m curious, as these models get better, is there something you look at and you’re “, three months ago, we really couldn’t do that but God, the the latest models really allow us to do it”?Chai [00:21:19]: So here’s something interesting that I’ve, been toying with. So all models are... This wasn’t super obvious a year ago but now it’s become clear and clear that almost every agent is a coding agent underneath the hood? So you give it whatever file system, it can write its own code and so forth. So when you think about within healthcare and the use case that we have, you can think of the EHR effectively like a file system. It’s just — it’s a storage of all this information. It’s a lot of information there that cannot fit into the context window, at least of today’s models and you want to use that context effectively for all these product use cases we’re talking about. And so if you have better agents that can, manipulate data, read that data, treat it as a file system as we see they’re going and we know model companies are investing this way, then that very directly benefits us.Swyx [00:22:09]: Yeah. Okay, cool. Again, just establishing basic things. But we’re going back to the model stuff. I’m really interested in double-clicking more on the real-time, element, which is pretty important for both of you. Is it — Is real-time just batches of every one minute, every five minutes? Is that how we do it? Or is there some more native, genuinely real-time in the sense that OpenAI has a real-time API or Gemini has a real-time API?Chai [00:22:35]: Yeah. Yeah. So today it is more on the on the batch basis but there’s interestingChai [00:22:41]: Prototypes that we have that we’re still not fully, full time, voice in text out or in that sense. But, can you trigger your models, your agents or agentic workflows, depending on the right times in the conversation?Chai [00:22:58]: And so you can imagine, different techniques to bring this latency down and, you want to bring the feedback loop down as much as you can. And so a lot of clever engineering there without fully... Maybe one day we’ll do full voice in and text out, train a model to do something like that.Swyx [00:23:15]: You do — People don’t want voice in voice out?Chai [00:23:18]: Now we aren’t creating experiences that are, during the conversation, inter — It’s almost likeSwyx [00:23:25]: Might be too disruptiveChai [00:23:26]: Too disruptive until, who knows, maybe eventually you could have full voice agents once we — the quality and we improve the comfort of the technology. But right now gra — that change is much more gradual and it’s more text focus, text out.Janie [00:23:42]: And so much of currently what our product is trying to do is allow a clinician to focus on their patient and maybe at some point but right now patients, clinicians don’t want a third voice, at least in a literal voice in that room. And so how do we be there with all the contacts and information ready at hand when there’s the right moment?Personalization: Individual Doctors, Specialties, and Health SystemsJacob [00:24:03]: Jenny, one thing I’m curious about is how you think about, personalization in the product. I imagine, every doctor is a special snowflake in their own way, has their own way they like to do things. There are probably a bunch of different approaches you could take to doing that, both within the model layer itself but then also just with clever prompting or engineering. How do youJacob [00:24:20]: Deliver on that?Janie [00:24:21]: It’s such a good question. Personalization is massive for us. We think about personalization at three levels. The first is at the individual, the second is at the specialty level and then the third is at the health system or the organization level. To your point, there are a lot of individual preferences. You-When a note is produced, it almost is a reflection that is so deeply personal of a doctor’s work and how they give care. And so do they have preferences on things like style? They might want bullets versus paragraphs, really concise versus comprehensive. They also might have phrases that they really like to use or the templates that they want every note to be structured. And, we see it in our feedback all the time. We want two spaces in between sentences or I refuse to use this tool. And so that’s something that we’ve had to build in. And the tricky part is how do you make sure that stylistic preferences don’t interrupt accuracy and quality and that’s something that we’ve really had to refine and hone over time. Second is at the specialty level. A cardiologist note or workflow is going to look very different from a dermatologist workflow.Jacob [00:25:32]: I assume cardiology notes are the highest stakes for you guys, given your CEO is a cardiologist.Jacob [00:25:36]: It’s “Oh my God, make sure we get this one.”Janie [00:25:37]: Shiv, our CEO, is still a practicing cardiologist. He rounds once a month. And so, first call when we want just quick and easy user feedback too.Janie [00:25:46]: But, specialties require a lot of personalization, both in terms of what does the product look and so we make sure that as new users onboard, we catch that and the product proportionally reflects that. But also on the back end, evals at the specialty level, they are hard-earned to calibrate and get. What does a really great dermatology note look like? What makes it complete? What makes it compliant and billable is very different than a primary care doctor. And so it’s not just about what does the product experience look but on the back end tuning and really deepening our understanding for the specialists. What does great output look like? And that’s, a problem that we need to calibrate internally, externally, online, offline but, takes lots of cycles but is necessary in a high-stakes environment. And then at the health system level, for products like clinical decision support, you have health systems who’ve spent years or decades refining their best practices and they want to know, “Hey, we love your clinical decision support product but how do we embed our own hospital guidelines into them to inform clinicians before, during or after a visit what brest — best practices should look like?” And as you think about, deepening moats as well, when health systems, trust us with that data, allow us to productize it and directly into the clinical workflow, makes us a really great partner to health systems who want to build something that truly meets their needs, their practicing guidelines.AI Slop, Memory, and Product Data FlywheelsChai [00:27:23]: And I want to add onto that. The for the clinical documentation problem, it’s very similar to AI writing that doesn’t feel like your own and then we call that slop. But the way I describe one framing of slop is like AI without context. But we have all that context and both the clinicians, can have it and can guide it. And so part of the other interesting exhaust for us is, memory is, one of these new systems recordsChai [00:27:49]: Almost.Janie [00:27:50]: And we also have all the edits people make on our product and when you think about a data flywheel and how we get better over time becomes really powerful as a mechanism to just going deeper in personalization.Jacob [00:28:04]: It’s interesting. I love this idea of working with systems on the guidelines they built up over a long time. I feel like so many of the best AI app companies today are... The question is: How do you take the expertise that a law firm or a bank has built up over many years and then add that as context and also a special sauce over, a an AI tool? And so seems like y’all are really doing that very effectively.Janie [00:28:24]: We’re now starting to have our customers ask, “What are other customers doing?”Janie [00:28:28]: “And how are they doing it?”Janie [00:28:30]: And as we think about having visibility across such a large set of care being delivered right now, a really interesting place we could also partner.Swyx [00:28:40]: I’m just curious. I — This may be a nothing question but, how different are health system guidelines from each other? Don’t they all converge to the same thing? And if not, where do they differ?Chai [00:28:52]: At a really high level, they’re going to talk about very similar things but the difference is probably in some more of the details. “Oh, you should refer to specialists only when XYZ conditions are met,” or so forth and maybe different organizations have different practices and guidelines around that. But high level, talking about similar things but the details are what, of course, that shapes the context and the decisions you make.Swyx [00:29:15]: And this all goes into the context engine and it might affect the notes but maybe not.Chai [00:29:21]: The — For these local pathways, we’re definitely thinking about it a little more for our clinical decision support product.Chai [00:29:26]: So yeah.Swyx [00:29:27]: Which is your stuff, yeah.Swyx [00:29:28]: And then the memory which you raised, let’s just tell us more about that. What have you tried in memory? What’s the structure of the memory? What works? What doesn’t work?Chai [00:29:38]: There’s, of course, many different ways you could do memory, where it’s okay, can you bake it into the model weights or can you do it in some external store? For us, what’s interesting is, of course, when you think the models are rapidly changing, whether it’s in-house or third-party, baking into the model weights, sometimes you worry that it could be a little throwaway. And so, how do you... You need to find a way that you decompose the problem, the preferences from the underlying models and so forth. The thing we’re right now most both that’s easiest to start with and we’re excited about is having, a separate store for memory, where you have, for example, a memory sub-agent that’s, working in the background, figuring out what are the important parts of the clinician’s actions that we want to remember for the long term. And then you can also imagine, other things where in the — you have background jobs that are running that are collating these, memories similar to Sleep, of course and what other pattern, patterns products do as well. Learning over all these action, all the action data we have, again, note edits, the conversations they did and the actual transcripts.Evals: LFD, LLM Judges, and Clinical SafetyJacob [00:30:40]: What about evals? How in the world do you... It is such a complex product surface area. We would love to hear you riff on that and also how has that evolved? I’m sure you’ve gotten better at it, so any learnings along the way.Janie [00:30:50]: From an evals perspective, we, from day one when we build any new product or feature, we think about, what does good look like? And there are table stakes things like clinical safety but then you start to get deeper into what does good quality look like. And when you go into something like our core product, there’s stuff like style and completeness and there’s things like does this note become something that can be billable, which is very high stakes for a health system. We have a number of ways in which we get confidence for this. We have, internal in-house clinicians who do what we call an LFD process to give us our very first pass at is this or isn’t this a good enough output, look at the effing data.Jacob [00:31:41]: LFD?Chai [00:31:42]: That’s why I was smiling. I was “Is Janie going to mention what it stands for?”Jacob [00:31:46]: I was not... There’s like a million acronyms.Jacob [00:31:48]: How am I supposed to know that I don’t? So “Oh yeah, of course, an LFD.”Swyx [00:31:51]: I’ve never heard of LFDs.Chai [00:31:53]: It’s a bridge for sure.Janie [00:31:55]: I got through three days and then I had to ask someone.Janie [00:31:58]: I thought it was just me that didn’t knowJanie [00:32:01]: It’s our internal process.Swyx [00:32:02]: But look at the data as a meme in ML, ‘cause you tend to not look at it. You just want to look at number go up.Chai [00:32:06]: Exactly.Swyx [00:32:07]: But yes.Janie [00:32:08]: But so, we make sure we look at the data and then as we think about all of the components of good output, we, one, create LLM judges across all of these and we make sure with annotated data and either internal or external evaluators, we feel like these judges are calibrated. And then depending on the stakes, we also work with in-house and third-party evaluators across all of these before we ship any big change. And the goal is, in terms of evolution, how do you go from this process taking months, down to weeks, down to days? Some of it is, a true science and ML problem. A lot of it’s also just, hard operational work. Have you planned ahead in terms of what you need? Have you really optimized the capacity that you need across all of the different specialties you need? Have you gotten a really good sense of which third parties are great to work with for what use cases? This takes a lot of domain, expertise and, lots of mistakes and errors in figuring that out. And so as much of it is an ML problem, so much of it has also been operational gains that are hugely important, where domain-specific expertise is everything.Specialty-Level Evaluation and Progressive RolloutsJacob [00:33:23]: But it’s funny, ‘cause I feel like people talk about healthcare like it’s one giant market and the reality isJacob [00:33:26]: It’s, dozens and dozens of sub-markets. And so it feels like in your evals you have to build that up across the board, probably.Swyx [00:33:34]: And is specialization the primary cardinality at... That’s the word that comes to mind.Janie [00:33:40]: Sometimes, depending on the product or the use case. And so if we’re making a note improvement or feature for a particular specialty, definitely but we have products that are for nurses. We have products that, are really aimed at making the document or the output a lot more billable. And so we’ll want to work with coding teams and not necessary clinicians. And so likeJacob [00:34:05]: Coding meaning healthcare coding.Janie [00:34:06]: Yes. Yes.Jacob [00:34:07]: NotChai [00:34:07]: Yes. I see you.Swyx [00:34:07]: Other kinds.Janie [00:34:09]: But is this output proportional to the work that was delivered? Is there sufficient documentation to justify the amount that a health system may end up charging? And so, specialty sometimes but also domain, very different across all of the different products that we’re working for. And building out that network is, not easy and is where a lot of our operational investments have gone into.Chai [00:34:35]: And I view a lot of analogies to self-driving cars here, where, part of it is we really want progressive rollout of features to test in the real world is this useful? Is this going to work? One big difference compared to past lives is before I’d build a product, maybe I’d alpha it and then I’d like GA it the next week, ‘cause I’m “Go, move fast, ship,” and whatnot. But the mentality is like you... I want to make contact with the reality as quick as possible but I want a progressive rollout. Because as much as I get as large of an offline eval set, I want the distribution of that to match real-life distribution. And over time, by rolling out early, similar to Waymo has a tagline, “The world’s most experienced driver,” another thing that can, at least linearly increase for us is, both the size of our evaluation offline and online, that and it all feeds back.Janie [00:35:25]: Something that’s been earned over time, speaking of evolution, is just the trust we’ve gotten with customers. Historically, a lot of these health systems, when they bring on new vendors, their release cycles are quarters, sometimes twice a year. We’ve gotten our customers onto monthly release cycles, which is pretty fast for health systems but what is more exciting over the last, call it, few quarters, has been, a subset of our customers have said, “We want to innovate with you. We trust you,” and we have a pretty, decent chunk of our customers who say, “We’ll develop with you outside of these monthly release cycles. We have a higher tolerance. We know that the stakes are very high but we want to be the first ones using these products, giving you feedback.” And so for a pretty substantial set of our customers, we’ve been able to convince them to be able to ship, in this gradual way before GA. Something we talk about a lot internally is, trust is earned in drops, earned in buckets and so we still can’t do what I used to do when I worked at Loom. We had 30 million users. I’d just be, rolling out experiments left and. The bar is still quite high for iterative rollout but because of the trust we’ve earned, we’re able to learn at pretty high volume very quickly.Privacy, HIPAA, and De-IdentificationSwyx [00:36:45]: Your scale is still pretty huge.Swyx [00:36:47]: One thing I want to... We were going to go into scale? In a sec. One thing I wanted to call up, follow up on evals, which, again, just coming from a generalist engineer point of view, just thinking through what would people be scared of in doing this, the privacy and HIPAAJacob [00:37:00]: Elements of this. I have zero experience in that. What do you have to do? What is surprisingly not that bad?Chai [00:37:06]: So one thing that’s really important here from a compliance perspective is very much that any of the data we use needs to be de-identified, any real-world data we use as a basis of online eval sets we’re learning from. And so you have to — And there’s, very clear, government guidelines, what counts as PHI. And so we’ve even have built models that can take, for example, a clinical transcript and remove all the key PHI indicators and so you have a scrubbed/de-identified version. And then once you... And so one thing that’s important is first you’ve got to get confidence in that model in the first place? And prove that out. Because, now you have, multiple probabilistic systems on top of each other.Chai [00:37:46]: But once you have that, then you can train on it use it for evaluation and so forth, provided one of the cool things also that you can do from a business side is the right data contracting as well with your partners.Jacob [00:37:57]: Is the anonymization one way? Once it’s done, you cannot undo it? Or is there someoneChai [00:38:01]: YesJacob [00:38:02]: Who holds the master key that can... Yeah, okay. So it’s one way.Chai [00:38:05]: It’s one way. Yeah.Jacob [00:38:06]: That’s how it works. I just wanted to... Because, there’s a lot of this, learning from feedback and everything that, you would want to debug more but you can’t because you just physically don’t allow yourself to.Janie [00:38:17]: Some of it’s also written in our customer contracts in terms of who can or can’t access PHI data, how long do we retain it,Jacob [00:38:27]: Very goodJanie [00:38:27]: Before it gets de-identified. And so we have a pretty high bar for who can access that PHI data, just to make sure that we always respect our customer data and privacy. But that’s something that we partner with our customers on too, to make sure that as we want full, as close to precision as possible in that qualityJanie [00:38:48]: We can still use it.Jacob [00:38:50]: But it’ll be fascinating to see how that space evolves? Because you think about, I used to work at a company that, did a lot of healthcare data in the cancer space and if you asked, the average cancer patient, “Hey, do you want people, do you want other patients to be able to learn-”Chai [00:39:03]: Take it.Jacob [00:39:03]: “... Learn from your experience?”Chai [00:39:04]: Take it all.Jacob [00:39:05]: They’re “Please.”Jacob [00:39:06]: “I’d love, nothing more than for other people to be able to learn fromJacob [00:39:10]: The experience that I had.” And so in the past it was a lot harder to do that learning. But with this technology, that might really be practical and so it’ll be fascinating to see how that continues to evolve.Chai [00:39:21]: There’s so much in our data set of 100 million conversations.Chai [00:39:26]: You can imagine things like insights that you can give to the clinician. How could you, oh, how could you have reacted to this? In coaching or insights around, which treatments are effective or, like... Because you have this, again, this data source that was never captured before but that’s, where, intuition or experience is created from, going back to this idea that the conversation is the agent of truth.Operating at Scale: Reliability, Cost, and Token EfficiencyJacob [00:39:46]: Back to the 100 million conversations, I feel like you have this insane scale that maybe only a few other AI app companies have and everyone else dreams of. So not everyone has had to confront this yet but maybe just talk about some of the challenges of operating at that scale and what, our listeners have to look forward to if they ever get to this level of scale.Chai [00:40:05]: At large and larger in scale, so of course there’s a general, infrastructure reliability. When you... In any given startup, you’re building the plane while it’s flying. So there’s some notion of that. But what gets interesting on the AI and ML side for sure is this, as you get at more and more scale, so one, you have the data to first and foremost do this. But, you start thinking about costs or infrastructure in a whole different way at scale versus, a prototype.Chai [00:40:34]: You can use the most expensive model, you can burn as many tokens as you want but when you’re doing 100 million conversationsJacob [00:40:41]: Token max on leaderboards are less upsetting than that context.Chai [00:40:45]: . When you’re doing that and so that comes for we have the data and we also have the team that’s able to post-train based on this and you can optimize for efficiency, especially in areas where you believe that maybe a lot of the quality headroom is less so and you don’t expect the other off-the-shelf models to go that way, such that you want to do, efficiency maximization, in terms of compute and tokens.Jacob [00:41:08]: I feel like you guys live in the future in some way where most use cases today are really just in use case discovery mode, where it’s “God, I really hope I can find something that can get to scale,” and so you’re always going to use the most powerful model. And then the few things that do get to this level of scale, you start to do those optimizations.Chai [00:41:22]: It’s a natural trajectory where it’s like zero-to-one, we’re not talking about any of these optimizations.Chai [00:41:26]: But when maybe we’re in the one-to-100 or so forth, then we’re in optimization mode and, what works out really well is you’ve got all this data from zero-to-one that lets you do this.What Comes Next: The Conversation as the Shared Healthcare PlatformJacob [00:41:36]: That’s fascinating. I feel like one thing that’s so interesting about the Abridge footprint is that you’re in the doctor-patient visit in real-time. I always like to say, there’s like probably 50 years’ worth of product you could build on top of that. What gets each of you, I don’t know, what are you most excited about building, either in the short term or medium term or even, long down the line?Janie [00:41:53]: Something that I get really excited about is that the same conversation can serve so many stakeholders. If you think about the conversation, a doctor needs to know what is the documentation, how do I make sure that this fully represent the care I gave? A patient needs to know, “What the heck just happened? This was really overwhelming. What are my next steps?” A payer needs to know, was this the proper and appropriate care given? A pharma company might want to know why isn’t this drug being properly used or is there a good candidate for this clinical trial that I’m about to run? And where I get excited is that our product and our platform and our infrastructure can be the same product across all of those things and start to what’s today, separate, very expensive, complex systems that serve each one of these stakeholders in very different ways, start to collapse all of that into a singular platform that enables not just more efficiency across the board but also better outcomes for everyone. And, all of us experience healthcare in probably very painful ways and knowing that there is a world in which we can simplify a lot is really exciting to me and it all starts with the conversation.Chai [00:43:15]: It’s interesting. Of it very similar to going back to the KPIs that any AI product cares about. How do you increase quality of care? How do you reduce latency to care? And how do you reduce costs? Which is a huge, in healthcareJacob [00:43:28]: They call it the triple aim in healthcare.Chai [00:43:30]: But very similar to building AI products and the thing that really excites me is when we talk about that latency piece, we talked about one example earlier of prior authorization, can you reduce the latency to care? But you can imagine so much more. Oh, as soon as the lab value gets updated, do you have like a background agent that, kicks off and uses all the context to be “Oh, hey, the patient should do this next,” for example. And of flagging that to the clinician who’s always in the loop but reducing that latency, to care. And then you can imagine this is much further down the road but it’s like even connecting that to the direct patient and the consumer. And so how can you, how can you build a bridge to all of these things?EHR Partnerships and the Clinical Intelligence LayerJacob [00:44:10]: Very cool. The connections piece is just an ever-growing thing. And one of the key partners is the EHR and I wonder what that relationship is like. Will they, look at this as, something that is valuable enough that they want to own someday?Janie [00:44:29]: Our partnerships with the EHR is, we know that we have to be extremely close partners with all the EHRs who we partner with. Being able to not only pull and push all of the data into the right places is, not only table stakes, if we can’t do that, health systems don’t want to use us. The second and the reality of today is clinicians spend a lot of their days in the EHR. So much of what allowed us to win in the largest health systems was pretty direct and, very close partnerships with some of the largest electronic health records that allowed us to pull and push data with APIs that weren’t ready out of the box. And clinicians want to save clicks. Anytime we introduce a new product that, adds two clicks for them in their day, they’re “We’re not going to use it.”Janie [00:45:21]: They have 15-minute back-to-back appointments with their patients. They’re spending, hours during pajama time doing documentation. Every second and every minute counts and so we really think about being deeply integrated into the EHR as also table stakes to getting real usage and adoption. And anything that we build or introduce, we really talk about earn the right internally a lot, which is we have to provide so much value or save so much time that people will use us. But those are the two things that are close to us, is we know that the product won’t be used unless it is deeply interoperable.Chai [00:46:01]: And strategically, to your point, it’s like what does EHR want to own versus us? EHRs are really focused on the clinical workflows and so forth but some of the things that we’re talking about here, I do these traditionally are outside of the domain where it’s oh, connecting pairs and providers together with provider policies or the clinical trial matching, as Janie brought up. And so these are, entirely — we position ourselves as building this entirely new intelligence, clinical intelligence layer across, again, providers, pharma and, payers.Chai [00:46:33]: And so that’s a it’s a whole different ballgame that we try to playChai [00:46:36]: In combination with them.Jacob [00:46:37]: But it’s like a different layer of scope.Healthcare AI Regulation, Technical Depth, and What Changed Their MindsJacob [00:46:39]: I’m curious, you are both relatively newcomers to healthcare. People have these, there’s lots of futuristic healthcare AI takes of “Oh, everything will look different.”, now that you’ve been in healthcare for a bit, you live at the edge of AI, what have you, changed your mind on around this, as you think about what healthcare looks like in ten, 20 years? Any updates to your mental model from the time being close to the problems?Chai [00:47:02]: One thing that IChai [00:47:04]: Was hesitant about before and it’s a common thing when I’m trying to recruit engineers that people ask me around, is definitely oh, healthcare, heavily regulated space. And it is, rightfully so. You want to keep, the patients at the end of the day safe. But one of the interesting things that, is a that surprised me how much it is coming to the company is there’s a lot of really favorable regulatory tailwinds as well. Where you think about, government really wants interoperability between all these systems that we talked about and so agents can access this information. The government just in January, the FDA released updated guidance on clinical decision support, what I work on in such a way that they used to have guidance from like 2022 that required you to have, mention all these options and do all these other things but it’s a very forward and forward-looking way. And so for me, what’s been really cool to work on is this, there’s this very special moment both in AI in general, we all know that but there’s a special moment also regulatory in healthcare as well.Janie [00:48:05]: One thing I would call out is for the very reasons things are higher stakes or, potentially considered more difficult in healthcare, it’s where some of the hardest AI problems will get solved first, just because the bar is so high. When I first joined, I was “Oh, this is where we’ll be on the tail end of where, all of the AI innovation will be able to be applied.” But when you think about, zero error evals or multi-step workflows that have really low tolerance, a lot of the innovation will happen here just because we have to or else we can’t ship.Jacob [00:48:42]: ‘Cause like in other domains, you’d much rather just solve the 80%-is-good-enough problems firstJanie [00:48:46]: 80/20 doesn’t work hereChai [00:48:48]: And building off that, traditionally, there was a bit of stigma that, oh, healthcare companies are not that interesting from a technical perspective or I’ve seen that or faced that myself. But these are really hard and fun problems from a pure technical perspective beyond just the impact. How do you bring the latency of this thing down and make it really high-quality?Reducing Latency: Clinical Workflows, Agents, and Implementation RealityJacob [00:49:07]: How do you bring the latency of things down?Chai [00:49:10]: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So okay, let’s answer the latency question. And maybe hopefully not too redundant with some of the things I’ve said earlier but some part of it is with any latency, you have to like what is, what is really your bottleneck. In a lot of workflows, it’s sometimes it’s the model itself. And so that’s where like our data flywheel, our post-training team and so forth come in so that can you make the models far more efficient. So that’s one aspect of latency. But there’s whole other aspects of latency where it’s okay, on top of that, if you use a constellation of different models, can you use — can you first use like a — it’s like thinking fast and slow. Can you use a cheap, fast model that triages and hands it off to a larger model where you get more intelligence and so forth and so all theseChai [00:49:56]: Clever tricks to make it work.Chai [00:49:58]: And by the way, we are totally — we also realize that the parameter frontier is changing and so these tricks will — may not get us to where we want to be in five years but we need to if we want to build a useful product right now.Jacob [00:50:11]: Should we go to the quick-fire or you want to ask more about Abridge? We can stuff everything that’s not Abridge into the quick-fireSwyx [00:50:16]: I don’t mind. I was — I feel like Janie was on the topic of more long tail stuff, which isSwyx [00:50:21]: Not the eighty/twenty thing and that really matters. And I’ll —, if you have any tips or cool stories or just general approaches that have worked for you that’s interesting to dig into.Janie [00:50:32]: One of them is even just how we staff our teams looks different than a traditional software engineering team, I’d say.Swyx [00:50:40]: Let’s go.Clinician Scientists, Edge Cases, and Evals at ScaleJanie [00:50:41]: We have a bunch of folks with different roles who are clinicians and so we have this role called the clinician scientist and I heard one of our leaders refer to them as mutants recently. But they are people who’ve had clinical backgrounds, so MDs typically, who are also deeply technical, somewhere, on the spectrum of like a full stack engineer all the way to like extremely scrappy prompter. But having each of these people embedded within our teams instantly raises the bar for everything that we build because not only are they determining, is this product clinically useful but they’re deeply embedded in our whole evals process. And so when we talk about LFDs, when we talk about what is our actual evaluation criteria, you don’t want Chai or me creating what those are because we don’t have clinical background. But is probably unique to Abridge but has been game changing. And when you think about where the puck is going, you have people build with clinical backgrounds who are technical and where AI tools are going, they just becomeJanie [00:51:53]: More and more, critical and like the killers of the team. And so that’s one. And then the second is just the scale at which we do evals to catch that long tail up front before anything ever gets into production is something that we’ve pretty much like really started to fine-tune, both from a scale but when do we know we need to get several hundred versus several thousand offline responses, what helps us make that quick decision and make this less of an art and as much of a science as possible. But that’s also been something we’ve had to tune over time.Swyx [00:52:27]: And you have partners who opted in to give you those evals.Janie [00:52:31]: So we work either internally or with third-party for offline evals and then we have customers who also agree to give us, whether it’s like thumbs up, thumbs down to like choose this or that, a lot of data to get us to what is as close to fully confident as possible.Swyx [00:52:51]: The term that comes to mind isSwyx [00:52:53]: Like active learning on things where you’re weak. I feel like it’s a lost artSwyx [00:52:58]: Is a lot of the polish that comes into doing something like this.Janie [00:53:02]: Really.Chai [00:53:03]: Hundred percent.Lessons from Glean: Technical Foundations and AI App InfrastructureJacob [00:53:04]: Maybe, on a totally unrelated note, Chai, you had a very, storied run at Glean before heading over to Abridge. And so, I’m curious like that — it’s was one of the early AI app success stories. As reflecting back on that experience, what do you think Glean got most, maybe most wrong? Yeah, curious for your reflections.Chai [00:53:24]: The... I attribute Glean’s success really to very strong technical foundations, that have really stood the test of time. And so it started with — it started with a known problem and like finding information where work is hard. The best technology at the time was to build really high-quality search. A lot of times enterprise search startups failed because the quality wasn’t great enough. But the learning that people took away from that is, oh, enterprise search is not good enough. And so like quality, really changes the game of like if something can be useful or not. It’s like similarly like people may have taken it that way, “Oh, Alexa voice assistants are not that useful.” But when you have quality, things can change the game. And so Glean’s early foundations, by bringing people who had built search at Google, the best place to have ever built search and being really creative and having a very concrete problem to solve but with the right technical backgrounds, laid the foundation for all of its success for the many years to come. And what’s interesting is always figuring out, hey, how does a company adapt in this, as we all know and we’ve talked many times, in this changing landscape. And so for Glean, how do you put this context layer to the use, has been the thing that we’ve really, the last few years, has been the fun from the challenge. That where like you could say, that’s been the opportunity for the company as well as the challenge as well.Jacob [00:54:46]: Definitely a competitive market. It feels like one at the epicenter of the foundation models and, the hyperscalers, so it’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out.Chai [00:54:55]: When you think about can you build something that helps everyone at knowledge work as well is a massive opportunity.Jacob [00:55:02]: Always my mental model is like there’s a few markets that are like the foundation model companies have to win or are like big enough to go after and It’s probably like consumer code and that.Jacob [00:55:11]: And so it would definitely be interesting to see how it plays out. One thing we often think about on the investing side is, the pace of progress in models changes so fast and so the building patterns adjust so fast. And it’s always hard to figure out, what pieces of the way people are building today, the infrastructure tools they use, are going to prove persistent versus, okay, six months later we’re doing something completely different becauseJacob [00:55:31]: Models have improved. I’m curious of the stuff you use today, how do you think about the pieces of AI infrastructure software that feel a little bit more persistent?Chai [00:55:40]: So generally, if you take the thesis that the models are going to be more and more agentic, before we had to build a lot of scaffolding around that. In previous gigs, I’ve — we’ve effectively, we made our own DSL effectively and you can view the because the models were not capable enough, so you needed to simplify things. And you can view it similar to other agent frameworks. But over time, if the models become more and more agentic and can use the similar tools that we already have, where it’s like computer use, writing code itself in sandbox, much more around, far more about, what are the right context layers and the tools to give agents. And then the other things that I think about are how do you really build truly event-driven real-time systems and especially at Abridge, again, where you’re doing something real-time in the conversation. And so there’s a lot of event-driven technology. And by the way, stuff that we’ve always used in the past, whether it’s Kafka, Temporal, Sockets and so forth, how do you bring that together is also durable. Or thinking about patterns in which humans collaborated with each other on Google Docs. How do you think about like CRDT and so forth when you have conflicts, when you have multi-agent systems? So all these things that we’ve built for — the things we’ve built for humans are the things that are going to be, continue to be durable.Jacob [00:56:55]: . Just with like 1,000 times more the scale of agents running at them instead.Jacob [00:56:58]: They’re going to really work.Chai [00:56:58]: So make sure that they scale, of course and fast and whatnot. Without a doubt, yes.How Agentic Does Abridge Become?Swyx [00:57:03]: Does Abridge become more agentic over time than, what is the next more agentic version of that look like?Swyx [00:57:10]: ‘Cause you’re already pretty proactive it’s, with like the notifications.Chai [00:57:15]: And so I view that as like a piece of being agentic but I also view it as maybe some of the things we mentioned before, oh, reacting to labs or, doing work in the background or doingChai [00:57:25]: Even more capabilities on behalf of the clinician, who we believe has a super important role to play as, in terms of patient connection and so forth.What They Changed Their Minds On: PRDs, Prototypes, and JudgmentJacob [00:57:34]: I’m curious for both of you, what’s one thing you’ve changed your mind on in AI in the past year?Janie [00:57:39]: The one I flopped on and this is much more product specific, is, probably the hotter take is that prototypes are the end all be all and that PRDs are dead.Janie [00:57:51]: We’ve tried switching and... We continue to evolve the way product is developed and, the products that we’re building are extremely complicated and nuanced and it is very difficult for a prototype to capture the full complexity of what can we or can’t we do with this data. What and who... Is this the actual right problem to be solving for in a world where software has become so cheap? Yes, this is a cool looking prototype but should we be spending any of our precious hours here? If so, why? And how does this deepen our moat in a world of decreasing moats? Does this require custom implementation from our customer to use? None of that gets captured in a prototype and so we’ve, we’re continuously evolving the way that we develop product here but even if not written in the same traditional ways as it was two years ago, as a team we’ve gotten pretty, high conviction that in a world of so much noise, crisp written clarity is more important than ever. It might now live in a markdown file that more teams and systems can use as context but that’s probably one that is much moreSwyx [00:59:06]: So you’reJanie [00:59:06]: Function specific to me.Jacob [00:59:08]: I love that.Swyx [00:59:09]: You’re disagreeing with the consensusJanie [00:59:10]: That PRDs are deadSwyx [00:59:11]: That’s great, yeah.Swyx [00:59:12]: So you are likeJanie [00:59:14]: That prototypes are the thing.Janie [00:59:14]: We should partner with AI to create great documentation but first, probably most important, is strategically answering like why is this problem the one our company and our product should solve? What happens if the next 20 competitors build this? Why, what is our right to win and does this help us differentiate in any way or are we just adding noise? It’s importantSwyx [00:59:39]: That’s a high bar. I don’t know if I could answer thatSwyx [00:59:41]: Because a lot of the times the answer is let’s do it first.Janie [00:59:44]: And when the cost of doing it first is so expensive, we just talked through the process of getting something out to customers. You need to have a higher bar for as a business, should we invest here? And as all of our roles evolve, one of product or like all of our jobs become should we do this thing? And that’s something that is worth the time spending up front on. And then, as you think about prototypes, it’s still really valuable to quickly show, “Here are the 20 ways we could do it. Clinician, I would love your feedback, which one resonates more?” Or as you get into deeper fidelity, you can also make the prototypes deeper fidelity and like get it as close to production ready as possible. But, beyond that, to get it out to customers, there’s a lot of implementation details, security compliance, edge cases, things that never get caught in a prototype that need to be written out somewhere. And so they look different but still more important than ever.Jacob [01:00:52]: It’s interesting. I imagine a lot of that also is like given the context of the stage that Abridge is at.Jacob [01:00:58]: I feel like for so many early stage companies, it’s just a desperate race to... You throw like 30 things at the wall, you’re “Please, something just like resonate with my end buyer.” and, you find something and that’s, why the prototype first approach is so powerful. But for you all, it’s like anything you’re going to do is across 200 systems, there’s like a whole, implementation change management side of things and you get a few big bullets to fire at at what you want those systems to do. And so being really thoughtful about that.Chai [01:01:25]: It makes a ton of sense and maybe the prototype first takes will all grow into your view of the world when they’re a bit more scaled.Janie [01:01:32]: The weekend demo versus it works at the largest health systems is, a massive gap. I don’t think it means we can’t go fast. This is the fastest I’ve built in my career, right now and theChai [01:01:47]: Compared to Loom?Janie [01:01:48]: From a the complexity and the scale of the products we’re trying to build and the problems we’re trying to solve, I’d say, yes, maybe I, updated a flow or, shipped a new feature pretty quickly but if you think about some of the products we’re building, we’re trying to collapse prior authorization, things that used to take 45 days across maybe 20 different touch points into one. I’m building faster than I ever have and so the thoughtfulness allows us just to go fast at the right things. It sounds contradictory but thatChai [01:02:28]: NoJanie [01:02:28]: Thought up frontChai [01:02:28]: Go slow to go fast.Janie [01:02:29]: Exactly.Chai [01:02:30]: It’s interesting. In the... When a lot of things are changing and in the AI discourse, sometimes we lose sight of things that always stood the test of time. Judgment and clarity always matters. As an engineer, sometimes I don’t want a prototype. I would like to see... I want the written, the clarity that comes from writing and then we build that. And again, for some things, of course, where it’s a small thing, yeah, just ship the prototype. That’s why, don’t sweat the details. So the interesting thing, the nuance that gets lost sometimes in discussion is, sometimes we need to recalibrate our judgment for sure because the costs and gains have changed but that doesn’t mean we go all the way on one spectrum or the other.AI Tools, Claude Code, and Closing NotesChai [01:03:11]: Outside of your specific tool, I always like to ask this question, any other AI tools that you guys are enjoying?Chai [01:03:16]: Claude Code. But, that feels, too basic of an answer.Chai [01:03:20]: Is all of Abridge engineering very built on Claude Code?Chai [01:03:23]: Yes.Chai [01:03:23]: Wow.Chai [01:03:23]: Very much so. I won’tChai [01:03:26]: We also have Cursor as well.Chai [01:03:28]: Many of theChai [01:03:29]: I’m just checking the boxes here.Chai [01:03:30]: Many of the tools available but it’s like you look at just earlier in the day, you see an engineer’s screen. You see, six different, Claudes running at it. Sometimes the same person, I’ve seen them on the sofa now with the remote control as well on the mobile. But, very much so. One of the interesting things for me is, as a relatively new person to companies, Claude Code helps me onboard much faster or any of these AI code... And, I feel like I learn so much. I do love the memes of “Claude’s going to do this.” So, I’d like to see Claude,Chai [01:04:00]: The venture equivalent is “I’d like to see Claude go do a company at a billion dollars pre-revenue.” LikeWhere to Learn More: Whitepapers, Research, and AbridgeHQChai [01:04:06]: We always like to leave the last word in these conversations to you both. And so, any place you want to point folks where they can go learn more about Abridge, the work you’re doing, any of the research you guys have done, whatever. The floor is yours.Chai [01:04:18]: A couple places. If you... On our Abridge website, we have a lot of our whitepapers where we’ve done a lot of interesting work, such as, reducing a hallucination objection.Chai [01:04:27]: Very well-presented, by the way. I liked it. Yeah.Chai [01:04:29]: Thank you. Our science team rigorously defined what is the problem. And one of the interesting things, by the way, at Abridge, is we have multiple, stats professors on staff as well. So in that specific whitepaper, Michael Oberst, who’s a professor at JHU. And so we have multiple... And from that comes, very high rigor and then also our taste for design comes from really good presentation. But setting that aside and we’re going to have many more technical topics there, please follow our Twitter account as well, AbridgeHQ. And then the other thing I’ll plug a little is, we have a open house of diving deep into AI and healthcare coming up with Andreessen Horowitz.Chai [01:05:07]: Amazing. Well, thanks so much.Janie [01:05:09]: Thanks.Chai [01:05:09]: This was super fun.Chai [01:05:10]: Thanks so much.Chai [01:05:10]: Thank you. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• 🔬Doing Vibe Physics — Alex Lupsasca, OpenAI 05.05.2026 1h 31min

  Some people are going crazy over GPT 5.5. Some people. This is the story of the Jagged Frontier. People who use AI to write emails or even code implementation work find the lift moderate whereas people pushing the limits of the model are figuring out that the limits just moved outwards.Alex Lupsaska has been tracking this limit for a year and a half now. “When GPT5 came out, it was able to reproduce one of my best papers (that took a very long time to come up with) in 30 minutes.”But Alex also notes that this shift was mostly invisible.I remember when GPT-5 came out… on Twitter, the reception was lukewarm. A lot of people were like, well, we expected a lot more, and it’s not better at writing email. And I remember thinking, well, okay, GPT-3 could write email. How much better can it get at writing email? That’s not the point. But at the science frontier, the capabilities were really taking off.We walk through his paper and more with him in today’s Science pod! Watch here.The “Oscar for physics”Alex made an early splash in his career with breakthroughs in our understanding of black holes. He’s also known for Black Hole Explorer and an iPhone app that makes visualizing black holes fun and interactive to regular audiences. Alex won the 2024 New Horizons in Fundamental Physics Breakthrough Prize. Known as the “Oscar for physics” this is arguably the most prestigious prize an early stage theoretical physicist can win.Alex first saw promise for AI in theoretical physics after he asked o3 for help on his research. In the podcast, Alex recalls asking GPT for help with a calculation that would have taken days, and getting a result in eleven minutes. He immediately recognized how impactful AI would be for his work even as though his physicist colleagues and the larger community gave it a lukewarm or skeptical reception.The Move 37 Moment for AI x PhysicsGPT-5 had just been released, and Alex tried asking it to solve a problem in a just published paper. GPT-5 said no answer. But Mark Chen, CRO of OpenAI, pushed a bit harder, and had Alex prime the model with a textbook warmup problem, which it easily solved. After using this “priming” trick, GPT-5 was able to reproduce his full result in eleven minutes (yes, the paper was released after the model’s training cutoff).“This changes everything.” Alex notes that we seem to be on the edge of a massive change in theoretical physics reasoning. A year prior LLMs were just starting do correct math. Now ChatGPT could reproduce his hardest paper in the time it takes to get a coffee.Alex was on sabbatical at Vanderbilt, and he joined OpenAI to start pushing the boundary of AI’s ability to accelerate physics.“AI solved the problem before the plane landed”Alex began to put GPT through it’s paces, reaching out to colleagues for problems they were stuck on. His old PhD advisor (Prof. Andrew Storminger at Harvard) had an insidght about certain physical quantities known as “single-minus gluon tree amplitudes”. In certain cases, these amplitudes may be non-zero when previously shown to always vanish. The team pushed this intuition forward, and came up with a formula for these quantities that appeared nonzero, but which was otherwise completely intractable. Spending over a year on this problem, no real progress was made.Prof. Storminger planned to visit OpenAI to work on the problem the week after the initial conversation started. In that one week ChatGPT fully solved the problem, as Alex recalled, before Prof. Storminger’s plane even landed.What was interesting is not only that ChatGPT solved this problem, but how it solved it. The model quickly realized found a limiting case (known as the “half-collinear regime”), that in hindsight has a nice intuitive explanation. Taking this limit, the gnarly results collapsed down to a simple and intuitive formula!The last step was to prove this intuitive formula. The team started with a fresh session, gave a prompt with the context of what they previously learned, and let the model loose. Not only was ChatGPT able to reproduce the previous result, it was able to prove it using a technique unknown to the authors!The Vibe Physics momentWith a concrete success in the bag, the team asked if they could generate new physics from scratch using ChatGPT. They took on what they felt to be a harder problem, looking at the graviton, a proposed particle that should appear when one combines gravity and quantum mechanics. They wrote up a simple prompt asking ChatGPT to perform the same research as the gluon paper but instead for gravitons. And then hit go!What came next was truly “vibe physics”, with ChatGPT pushing out 110 pages of novel physics, new calculations, and novel techniques. This was over the course of a day, with most interactions the familiar following the now familiar pattern for anyone who uses a coding agent:GPT: Here's your . Would you like me to do ? Alex: Yes, please do! GPT: And for those who look deeply, this really was not just a direct 1-1 mapping between gluons and gravitons. ChatGPT imported new techniques that were necessary due to the nature of gravitons, and used them flawlessly.They spent the next three weeks verifying all the results. And voila! A new paper featuring novel results in quantum gravity, generated in less than three days total. Truly a “Feel the AGI moment”.For those interested, there’s a blog post with the full transcript from initial prompt to final paper. Even if you know no physics, it’s crazy seeing pages of correct calculations fall out of simple prompts such as “Yes calculate outside of SD first. This is the first step.”Out-of-domain = new knowledgeThe thing that is qualitatively different between Vibe Physics and Vibe Coding is that Vibe Physics means actually extending the frontier of human knowledge. Looking at the Gluon and Graviton results, they seem in retrospect, like many results in physics and math, like natural extensions of what we already know. This is in fact part of what makes them beautiful. But this was a problem that stumped experts in the domain for a year. Although it does still have a bit of a recombinant flavor, this thing has never been done before.It may be that there are still large classes of problems that AI won’t do well on, and approaches that an AI might not think to take. This is the “taste” that everyone has been talking about. Alex told us that these capabilities, however, allow him to explore many possible avenues in order to map out much more ambitious problems to tackle. With AI able to output results basically as fast as we can conceive and validate them, the scope of what one theorist can hope to achieve has just gotten a lot, lot bigger. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Physical AI that Moves the World — Qasar Younis & Peter Ludwig, Applied Intuition 27.04.2026 1h 12min

  From building Applied Intuition from YC-era autonomy tooling into a $15B physical AI company, Qasar Younis and Peter Ludwig have spent the last decade living through the full arc of autonomy: from simulation and data infrastructure for robotaxi companies, to operating systems for safety-critical machines, to deploying AI onto cars, trucks, mining equipment, construction vehicles, agriculture, defense systems, and driverless L4 trucks running in Japan today. They join us to explain why “physical AI” is not just LLMs on wheels, why the real bottleneck is no longer model intelligence but deployment onto constrained hardware, and why the future of autonomy may look less like one-off demos and more like Android for every moving machine.We discuss:* Applied Intuition’s mission: building physical AI for a safer, more prosperous world, powering cars, trucks, construction and mining equipment, agriculture, defense, and other moving machines* Why physical AI is different from screen-based AI: learned systems can make mistakes in chat or coding, but safety-critical machines like driverless trucks, autonomous vehicles, and robots need much higher reliability* The evolution from autonomy tooling to a broad physical AI platform: starting with simulation and data infrastructure for robotaxi companies, then expanding into 30+ products across simulation, operating systems, autonomy, and AI models* Why tooling companies came back into fashion: Qasar on why developer tooling looked unfashionable in 2016, why Applied Intuition still bet on it, and how the AI boom made workflows and tools central again* The three core buckets of Applied Intuition’s technology: simulation and RL infrastructure, true operating systems for vehicles and machines, and fundamental AI models for autonomy and world understanding* Why vehicles need a real AI operating system: real-time control, sensor streaming, latency, memory management, fail-safes, reliable updates, and why “bricking a car” is much worse than bricking an iPad* Physical machines as “phones before Android and iOS”: Peter explains why today’s vehicle and machine software stack is fragmented across many operating systems, and why Applied Intuition wants to consolidate the platform layer* Coding agents inside Applied Intuition: Cursor, Claude Code, internal adoption leaderboards, and how AI tools are changing engineering workflows even in embedded systems and safety-critical software* Verification and validation for physical AI: why evals get harder as models improve, how end-to-end autonomy changes simulation requirements, and why neural simulation has to be fast and cheap enough to make RL practical* From deterministic tests to statistical safety: why autonomy validation is shifting from binary pass/fail requirements toward “how many nines” of reliability and mean time between failures* Cruise, Waymo, and public trust: Qasar and Peter discuss why autonomy failures are not just technical issues, how companies interact with regulators, and why Waymo is setting a high bar for the industry* Simulation vs. reality: why no simulator perfectly represents the real world, how sim-to-real validation works, and why real-world testing will never disappear* World models for physical AI: hydroplaning, construction equipment, visual cues, cause-and-effect learning, and where world models help versus where they are not enough* Onboard vs. offboard AI: why data-center models can be huge and slow, but onboard vehicle models need millisecond-level latency, low power, small size, and distillation-like efficiency* Why physical AI is not constrained by model intelligence alone: the hard part is deploying models onto real hardware, under safety, latency, power, cost, and reliability constraints* Legacy autonomy vs. intelligent autonomy: RTK GPS in mining and agriculture, why hand-coded path-following worked for decades, and why modern systems need perception and dynamic intelligence* Planning for physical systems: how “plan mode” applies to robotaxis, mining, defense, and multi-step physical tasks where actions change the state of the world* Why robotics demos are not production: the brittle last 1%, humanoid reliability, DARPA Grand Challenge-style prize policy, and the advanced engineering gap between research and deployment* Applied Intuition’s hard-earned lessons: after nearly a decade, Peter says they can look at a robotics demo and predict the next 20 problems the company will hit* Qasar’s advice to founders: constrain the commercial problem, avoid copying mature-company strategies too early, and remember that compounding technology only matters if you survive long enough to see it compound* Why 2014 YC advice may not apply in 2026: capital markets, AI company dynamics, and the difference between building in stealth with a deep network versus building as a new founder today* What Applied is hiring for: operating systems, autonomy, dev tooling, model performance, evals, safety-critical systems, hardware/software boundaries, and engineers with deep curiosity about how things workApplied Intuition:* YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@AppliedIntuitionInc* X: https://x.com/AppliedInt* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/applied-intuition-incQasar Younis:* X: https://x.com/qasar* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/qasar/Peter Ludwig:* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterwludwig/Timestamps00:00:00 Introduction: Applied Intuition, Physical AI, and 10 Years of Building00:01:37 Physical AI vs. Screen AI: Why Safety-Critical Changes Everything00:02:51 The Origin Story: Tooling, YC, and the Scale AI Comparison00:05:41 The Three Buckets: Simulation, Operating Systems, and Autonomy Models00:11:10 Hardware, Sensors, and the LiDAR Question00:14:26 The Operating System Layer: Why Vehicles Are Like Pre-Android Phones00:19:13 Customers, Licensing, and the Better-Together Stack00:21:19 AI Coding Adoption: Cursor, Claude Code, and the Bimodal Engineer00:26:41 Verifiable Rewards, Evals, and Neural Simulation00:31:04 Statistical Validation, Regulators, and the Cruise Lesson00:40:25 World Models, Hydroplaning, and Cause-Effect Learning00:43:34 Onboard vs. Offboard: Latency, Embedded ML, and Distillation00:50:57 Plan Mode for Physical Systems and Next-Token Prediction Universally00:53:04 Productionization: The 20 Problems Every Robotics Demo Will Hit00:58:00 Founder Advice: Constraints, Compounding Tech, and Mature-Company Mimicry01:05:41 Hiring Philosophy: Hardware/Software Boundary and Engineering Mindset01:08:50 General Motors Institute, Education, and the Curiosity MindsetTranscriptIntroduction: Applied Intuition, Physical AI, and 10 Years of BuildingAlessio [00:00:00]: Hey everyone, welcome to the Latent Space Podcast. This is Alessio, founder of Kernel Labs, and I’m joined by Swyx, editor of Latent Space.Swyx [00:00:10]: And today we’re very honored to have the founders of Applied Intuition, Qasar and Peter. Welcome.Qasar [00:00:17]: You guys really know how to turn it on to podcast mode. That was, you guys are real pros at this.Qasar [00:00:23]: They were just joking around right before this, and then they flipped it pretty quick.Alessio [00:00:29]: Oh, yeah, it’s good to have you guys. Maybe you just wanna introduce yourself so people know the voice on the mic and they’ll know what they’re hearing.Peter [00:00:33]: Oh, sure. Yeah, I’m Peter Ludwig. I’m the co-founder and CTO of Applied Intuition.Qasar [00:00:38]: And my name is Qasar Younis. I am the CEO and co-founder with Peter.Alessio [00:00:42]: Nice. Can you guys give the high-level overview of what Applied Intuition is? And I was reading through some of the Congress files, when you went out there, Peter, and eighteen of the top twenty global non-Chinese automakers, you two guys, you have customers in agriculture, defense, construction. I think most people have heard of Applied Intuition tied to YC when it was first started, and then you were kinda in stealth for a long time, so maybe just give people the high-level overview of what it is today, and then we’ll dive into the different pieces.Peter [00:01:10]: Yeah. So at Applied Intuition, our mission is to build physical AI for a safer, more prosperous world. And so we work on physical AI for all different types of moving systems, everything from cars to trucks to construction and mining equipment, to defense technologies. And we’re a true technology company, so we build and sell the technology, and we sell it to the companies that make the machines. We sell it to the government, really anyone that wants to buy a technology to make machines smart.Physical AI vs. Screen AI: Why Safety-Critical Changes EverythingQasar [00:01:38]: Yeah. And I think in the broader AI landscape, a lot of the focus, rightfully so in the last, three years has been on large language models, and so everything fits in a screen. Like, whether it’s code complete products or things like that. And what’s different about us is we’re deploying intelligence onto a lot of things that don’t have screens. they’re physical machines. There are sometimes screens within the cabin or for example of a car or a truck or something like that, but most of the value we provide is putting intelligence that is in safety critical environments. So that those two words are really important because learn systems can make mistakes if you’re asking for, like, some, so something like, “Tell me about these podcast hostsQasar [00:02:28]: that I’m about to go meet.” But you can’t do that obviously when you run, like, as an example, we run driverless trucks in Japan right now, as we speak. We can’t have errors. Those are L4 trucks. Yeah.Alessio [00:02:40]: Yeah. Was that always the mission? I remember initially, I think people put you and Scale AI very similarly for some things about being kinda like on the data infrastructure side of things. What was the evolution of the company?The Origin Story: Tooling, YC, and the Scale AI ComparisonPeter [00:02:51]: Well, from the very beginning, we always wanted to, really be a technology company that helped generally push forward the industrial sector. And so we started off working in autonomy. Our very first customers were robotaxi companies. And we started off doing a lot of work in simulation and data infrastructure. And then over the years, we’ve expanded our portfolios. Now we have, over thirty products, and it’s a pretty broad technology play within the landscape of physical AI.Qasar [00:03:19]: Yeah, I think the Scale reason is because we’re all YC Universe companies. But it was a very different company. Scale, was, is more of a services company, data labeling company fundamentally. We started and still are, do a lot of tooling. So like, you think developer tooling is now in vogue again, thanks to the AI boom. But honestly, ten years ago, it was out of vogue. It w Like, doing a tooling company in 2016, 2017 was not, like, the thing to do because, I don’t know if you remember, the VCs generally, their views was that toolings are They’re just workflows, and workflows ultimately are not really interesting. And we’ve gone and come, full circle with that. But when we started the company, our kind of it’s kinda like in the periphery of what the company wants to be. It was like, from our earliest days, like, we wanna deploy software on physical machines, like on cars and on trucks and things like that. And obviously, we didn’t know that the transformer boom was gonna happen. We didn’t know that autonomy systems would become end-to-end. Those things we didn’t know. And why that’s important when autonomy systems become end-to-end, it is just now those models can be generalized to, multiple form factors. And so back nine, ten years ago, tooling was a great way, and still is a great way to, build the technology and sell technology to our end customers, a lot of them who wanna build this stuff themselves. And so we just offer like a spectrum of solutions from you can just use like one part of a development suite of tools all the way to buying the full thing. The way to think about the company, or at least the way we think about the company is, as Peter said, a technology provider. It’s kinda like, what NVIDIA does or what an AMD, but we just don’t do chips.Qasar [00:05:06]: We don’t do silicon. But we’re a technology provider fundamentally. And I think even, we used to joke when we started the company, like, we’re not the guys to build, like, Instagram. Like that was just towards That’s not our That’s just not us in a most fundamental way. IAlessio [00:05:20]: You have thoughts.Qasar [00:05:21]: Yes.Qasar [00:05:22]: Well, it’s, it’s I mean, I think it’s just like what And I mean, we worked on Maps and stuff, Google Maps. Consumer products are extremely difficult for a lot of different reasons. It just, I think doesn’t scratch the itch. I think we’re like Michigan guys who are kind of more of that traditional engineering kind of a realm, or lineage. we used to jokeThe Three Buckets: Simulation, Operating Systems, and Autonomy ModelsPeter [00:05:41]: I gotta say, though, what was clear ten years ago was that there was so much more that was possible with software and AI in vehiclesPeter [00:05:47]: and that was generally the space that we started in ten years ago.Peter [00:05:51]: And the precise path that we’ve taken over the years, I think we’ve been strategic, and we’ve adjusted to make sure that we’re actually building stuff that’s valuable to the market. And like, the technology has changed so much. Like our own technology stack has completely changed, I would say, roughly every two years. And so now we’ve probably done, let’s say, four complete evolutions of our own technology stack. And I sort of see that cadence roughly keeping up.Peter [00:06:13]: And so the way even we think about engineering is almost on this two-year horizon, we’re preparing ourselves that, hey, like, we wanna invest the appropriate amount, but then also be very dynamic as the research gets published and as our research team figures out new advancements and adapting to that.Qasar [00:06:27]: Yeah. One thing that has been consistent is the type of people we’ve, we’ve recruited. It’s engineers who are fall into the sometimes very traditional, like, GoogleQasar [00:06:38]: -gen suite, but way different from, other companies. We are hiring folks who really know the intersection of hardware and software, who know really low-level systems. Obviously, traditional ML researchers and folks who’ve, actually, put ML systems into production. That’s been pretty consistent. I think that, like, you look at the mix of our engineering, eighty-three percent of the company is engineering, so it’s, like, a giant list.Qasar [00:07:05]: A lot of engineers.Alessio [00:07:06]: Which, by the way, a thousand engineersQasar [00:07:07]: Yeah. A thousand engineers.Alessio [00:07:08]: that’s on your website, so I imagine it’s up to date.Qasar [00:07:11]: It is, it is up to date, yes. Yes.Alessio [00:07:12]: okay. And then forty-plus founders.Qasar [00:07:15]: Yeah. We would tend to also, This was more luck than strategy. But we’ve recruited a lot of ex-founders. It’s been a great place for founders, YC and non, ‘cause obviously I know a lot of the YC folks. It’s kind of like we recruit a lot of Google people.Qasar [00:07:33]: For them to exercise both their technical and non-technical skills because, we’re, we’re, we’re on the applied side. We have a research team that we do fundamental research, we publish, and we’ve, we’ve had great traction there. But fundamentally, the business wants to take this intelligence and deploy it into production and there’s, like, a certain type of person that’s more interested in that.Alessio [00:07:54]: Yeah. You mentioned the tech stack, Peter, so I just wanted to give you some rein to just go into it. I’m interested in where Wayve Nutrition, starts and ends in some sense, what won’t you do? What, do you do that’s common among all the verticals that you cover?Peter [00:08:10]: There’s a few buckets of work that we do, and we’ve been at this for almost ten years now, so the technology’s pretty broad. But we got startedQasar [00:08:17]: Yeah, with a thousand engineers, like, you could work on lots of things.Peter [00:08:19]: There’s lots of stuff, yeah, espe-especially with AI tools to help.Peter [00:08:22]: So we got our start in simulation and simulation tooling and infrastructure. And so generally, if you’re trying to build a very complex software system that involves moving machines, you need to test that, and the best way to test it is it’s a combination of virtual developments, a simulation, and then also obviously real world testing.Peter [00:08:39]: And then there’s a very careful process of that correlation between the simulation results and the real world results and ensuring that the simulator is in fact accurate to that. Simulation’s a very deep topic.Peter [00:08:49]: We have a whole suite of products in that, and we could talk for many hours about that specifically. But that is one part of what we do as a company. Reinforcement learning as a subpart of that is also super critical. I think a lot of the a lot of the best advancements happening in a lot of these AI systems right now in some way relate to reinforcement learning, and with now we have lots of compute, and you can do tons of interesting things for reinforcement learning. The second bucket of work that we do is on operating systems technology. true operating systems. Like, think about, schedulers and memory management and middleware and message passing and highly reliable networking and data links. Like, the reality is, if you want to deploy AI onto vehicles, you need a really good operating system. And when we were getting deeper into that space, there wasn’t really anything that we were happy with.Peter [00:09:39]: Like, things existed, absolutely, and we were using what was available in the market, and as an engineering organization, we roughly realized these things aren’t great. We think we can do this better, and so let’s, let’s build something. And that was then the that was the moment of inspiration that started our operating systems business, which is now a very real business for us. And in order to write and run great AI, you need a great operating system, and so that-that’s what got us into that. And then the third bucket that we work on, it’s, it’s true fundamental AI technology. Models, we do a lot of work in, as mentioned, the foundational research, but then the also the world models and the actual autonomy models that are running on these physical machines, and that’s across cars, trucks, mining, construction, agriculture, and defense, and so that’s both land, air, and sea.Qasar [00:10:31]: And also, a smaller subsector of that third bucket is the interaction of humans with those machines.Qasar [00:10:38]: So that’s a multimodal, experience. Historically, if you’re moving a dirt mover or any of these machines, there are, like, buttons you press, whether they’re actual physical tactile buttons or something like a touch screen. That’s just That fundamentally is changing to where you’re just talking to the machine and the machine and you’re teaming with the machine.Alessio [00:10:58]: Voice?Qasar [00:10:59]: Yeah, voice, absolutely, yeah.Alessio [00:11:00]: Oh.Qasar [00:11:00]: And also the machine just being aware of who is in the cabin, what their state is. you can think from a safety systems perspective, the most simple version of this is, like, the driver is tired, right? They’re, they’re if you get those alerts when you’re driving your car and saysHardware, Sensors, and the LiDAR QuestionQasar [00:11:15]: -maybe take a coffee break, that take that times, a couple of order of magnitudes up. But this concept of teaming man and machine is important. When you think about running agents or just running, different instances of, Claude and doing work for you in the background, you can take that analogy out, almost copy and paste and put it into, like, a farm, where you have a farmer who’s running a number of machines. So where they interact with the machine is where there’s maybe a critical decision or a disengagement or something like that, but generally speaking, the agent on the physical machine is running and making decisions on the behalf of the farmer until there’s something maybe critical. And that’s also what we work on. So that’s not pure autonomy. It’s a little bit of a mix, but it falls under, autonomy. In the automotive sense, that’s typically defined in SAE levels as an L2++ systemQasar [00:12:05]: -with a human in the loop. But just take that idea, to other verticals.Alessio [00:12:09]: Yeah. You’ve not mentioned hardware at all, like sensors or obviously we you mentioned you don’t do chips. I think even in AV there’s, like, a big, cameras versus lidars. Like, what are, like, in your space maybe some of those design decisions that you made, and are they driven by the OEM’s ability to put things on the machinery? And like, how much influence do you guys have on co-designing those?Peter [00:12:32]: Yeah. So we don’t make sensors. Like, we’re, we’re not a manufacturer. Obviously, we use a lot of sensors in our autonomy products. in terms of what actually goes on the vehicles, we have a preferred set of sensors that we, let’s say fully support, and then our customers, they can sort of choose from those. And obviously if there’s a very strong opinion on supporting something else, we’ll add that to the platform as well. And the lidar question is at this point sort of the age-old,Peter [00:12:59]: topic in autonomy, and the state of the industry right now is lidar is hands down a useful sensor, specifically for data collection and the R&D phase of autonomy development. if you see, for example, a Tesla R&D vehicle, it actually has lidar on itPeter [00:13:17]: to this day, right? In the Bay Area we see these. you’ll see, like, Model Ys or Cybercab that have lidars on them just driving around. So it’s, it’s useful because it gives you per pixel depth information. So if you can pair a lidar with a camerand you can say that, well, this camera’s looking this direction, this lidar’s looking this direction, and now for each pixel of the camera I can see how far away is that pixel. you can actually then use that as a part of your model training, and then the that depth information then becomes a learned, a learned state of the camera data. And then when you’re doing the production system, you can now remove the lidarPeter [00:13:52]: and now you can actually get depth with just the camera. And so that difference between, like, a highly sensored R&D vehicle and then the down-costed production vehicle, we use that across our whole portfolio of products. And of course the end goal is you want super low cost and super reliable.Peter [00:14:08]: And then in certain use cases you have some more, bespoke things. Like in defense as an example, you do things at night oftentimes, and so you care about sensors like infrared, more so than And you don’t, you don’t wanna be putting energy out, so you don’t wanna use lidar or radar.Peter [00:14:23]: but you still need to be able to see at nighttime. So yeah, we work the whole gamut.The Operating System Layer: Why Vehicles Are Like Pre-Android PhonesAlessio [00:14:27]: Cool. So that’s kinda like on the hardware level. Then on the OS level, how does that look like? What is, like, unique? my drive- I drive a Tesla. Whenever I drive some other car that has a screen, it always sucks.Alessio [00:14:38]: It’s on, like, cheap Android tablet. It’s like, it’s laggy and all of that. What does the OS of, like, the autonomy future look like?Peter [00:14:46]: When most people, it’s really what you just described. When you think about operating system in a vehicle, you’re thinking about the HMI, right? The human machine interface, and absolutely that’s a an important part of it, but that’s actually only one thin layer on top. So when we talk about operating systems for, like, AI in vehicles, there’s many layers that go deep into the CPU critical realm and embedded systems, and you’re talking about the real time control ofPeter [00:15:13]: let’s say the electric motors or the engine and the actuators, and you have different redundancies for different, let’s say, the steering actuation in the vehicle. And all of these things, need very core support in the in the operating system. And then of course for autonomy you have real time sensor data that’s streaming in, and the latencies there are really important, right? If you try to Imagine you try to run Microsoft WindowsPeter [00:15:35]: like streaming your sensor data in or controlling the vehicle. Like, the latencies are gonna be absurd. Like, you can never do that. And so what’s special about what we do is we really have this system level thinking, right? So we’re looking at, we care about every performance characteristics of the entire system, and then we also, because we’re doing a lot of the software or all of that software, we can fine-tune and control all of those things. So we can very carefully tune in the latencies for every aspect of the system. We can carefully tune in the memory management. We can have the right, fail-safes and fallbacks, for different things. ‘Cause you have to account for what if, what if there is a critical failure? What if there’s a cosmic ray that flipsPeter [00:16:14]: a bit in the middle of the processor that causes some, malfunction? And you have to have a fail-safe to all of that, and so the core operating system is a part of that. And then the one last thing, which is a lot less exciting but is, actually a very big topic, is reliability of updates.Peter [00:16:30]: so the I have a Tesla and you get updates fairly frequently, right?Peter [00:16:36]: Once a month. Most companies that are making vehiclesPeter [00:16:40]: are basically never doing updates, and they’re And even if they are doing updates, they’re usually only updating maybe one module. Maybe they’re updating the HMI module. But they’re not able to update, let’s say, the CPU critical parts of the system.Peter [00:16:51]: You have to go into the dealer for that. And so with our operating system now we can actually enable highly reliable updates of any system in the vehicle, and that’s way easier said than done. Like, there’s lots of technical, technically deep stuff, in the tech stack to do that in a way that you’re not going to accidentally brick a vehicle.Peter [00:17:08]: And right? If, imagine yourAlessio [00:17:10]: That would be bad.Alessio [00:17:11]: Bad.Peter [00:17:11]: Bricking a car is a very expensivePeter [00:17:13]: and honestly, like across the industry maybe one of the most just pure impactful things that we’ve done is we’ve just, we’re, we’re now enabling the industry to actually do software updates.Alessio [00:17:22]: Just to clarify as well, who is the customer for this? Like, I assume a lot of hardware manufacturers have their own firmware, and I’m sure some of them would just have you write it for them because you’re experts. And others would have their own. Like, who pays for this? Who invites you into the house? Is it, is it the end user, or is it, is it the manufacturer?Peter [00:17:41]: Yeah. So let me make an analogy firstly on the on the fragmentation of software. So physical machines today are more akin to the state of the phone market before Android and iOS existed, right? So I worked on Android at Google by the way many years ago, and part of the reason that Larry at Google decided to get into Android was they wanted to run Google products on a bunch of phones, and they bought all of these phones from the industry, and it turned out they had like 50 different operating systems on these phones. And it was virtually impossiblePeter [00:18:17]: for Google to make their app run on all 50 devices equally well. And so the solution was, well, actually what if, what if they created-A really great operating system and made it attractive to all of these phone makers, and that was sort of the genesis for what Android was and why Android existed. It was a way for Google to get their products onto really wide diversity of devices. The state of the physical, industry right now, it’s a little bit like that. Like, there’s yes, these companies have firmware, but they have so many different operating systems, it’s so fragmented, and to actually get a modern AI application to run on these vehicles, you actually, you first have to consolidate the operating system, and so that’s, that’s why we’ve done that. And then, your specific question was who are our customers? It’s, it’s, generally it’s the companies that are making these machines.Peter [00:19:06]: And we’re, we’re, we’re selling our technology to them to really simplify the architecture and then enable these AI applications to run on them.Customers, Licensing, and the Better-Together StackSwyx [00:19:13]: How much is reusable across? Like, do you have, like, one OS that is just configured for everything, or is there some more customization that is needed?Peter [00:19:22]: Yeah, highly reusable. So the fundamental technology is quite universal, right? So things that we do have to think about though are, like, chipset support. And so if you’re, if you’re coding, let’s say, an LLM and you have start with an assumption that, “Hey, oh, I’m gonna, I’m gonna use CUDA, and I’m gonna run this, on an NVIDIA chip,” then you don’t really have to think about the hardware in that sense. Like, you’re just, “Okay, I’m just I’m in the CUDA/NVIDIA ecosystem, and I’m, I’m going to use that.” But the hardware, especially in safety critical systems, it’s a lot more diverse. There’s not one or one or two players. There’s a bunch of different chipsets that we have to support. And so our operating system doesn’t just run on, like, the equivalent of X86. It has to, it has to run on a number of different architectures from chips from a bunch of different companies. But again, we’ve been working on this for a long time now, so we have, we have support for all of those chipsets. And then when you want to then run the AI applications, we can then do that reliably across now a variety of providers.Qasar [00:20:19]: And I think that is, like, heavily inspired by Android, right? Android has a huge suite of testing and it’s a reliable operating system that runs on thousands of devices. And we think we can, we can do the same in all these physical moving machines, with the difference that we’re really in a safety critical realm. Android isn’t.Alessio [00:20:40]: So on Android, I don’t need to use Gmail, I can use Superhuman. Like, what about your machinery? Like, can people bring somebody else’s automation to it, or is it kinda like all-in-one?Qasar [00:20:50]: You have to use us. No. Yeah. we’re If, Yeah. Yeah, it’s totally open. Yeah.Peter [00:20:56]: Yeah. our philosophy is that we are a technology company, and so we license our technology to customers to use how they want. And so if a customer wants to If they wanna license our autonomy tech and our operating system, then great, we’ll license those. If they just wanna license the operating system and then use different autonomy tech, that’s fine also, and we have great documentation andSwyx [00:21:17]: Or if they wanna use developer tooling.Peter [00:21:18]: Yeah, exactly.AI Coding Adoption: Cursor, Claude Code, and the Bimodal EngineerSwyx [00:21:19]: It’s, like, a better together if, obviously, if you, if they work together. Is it all C++ I assume is with different compile targets?Peter [00:21:27]: We use a lot of C++.Peter [00:21:28]: Rust is sort of a hot, the new hot kid on the blockPeter [00:21:32]: for a bunch of things as well. But yeah, the lower level you get, especially when you get to real-time constraints, you hit C++ at some point, and at some point maybe you work your way into assembly when needed.Swyx [00:21:44]: Oh, damn.Alessio [00:21:46]: I’m curious about the coding agent adoption, just, like, since you’re mentioning more esoteric languages. Like, what’s the adoption internally? What have you learned?Peter [00:21:55]: Yeah. We use everything. So Cursor was, I think the hottest tool in the company for a good while. Now Claude Code, I think has taken the reign on that. We have a internal leader, leaderboard that we use just to sort of encourage adoptionPeter [00:22:09]: with-within the company. And yeah, it’s, they’re phenomenally useful. it’s, Honestly, we take inspiration from some of those tools also in how we’re adapting some of that mindset of thinking to the physical realm. Like if it’s so easy to build an app for this or that thing that lives just on a screen, we can We’re taking now a lot of the same ideas and applying that to, “Okay, well, if you wanted a physical machine to do something, how easy can we make that, using our own tooling and platform as well?”Alessio [00:22:40]: Are you changing any of, like, the OS architecture, kinda like the way you expose services to, like, be more AI friendly or?Peter [00:22:48]: Yeah, absolutely. The in the early days of our tools infrastructure work, it was a lot about, You had engineers that were experts in certain topics, but the things that you’re dealing with, they’re oftentimes more mathematical or more abstract, where actually GUI tools are very useful for certain things. Like as an example, we have a product we call Sensor Studio, which is, it helps you design the sensor suite for your autonomous vehicle, whether, again, it could be a car, it could be a drone, could be a mining equipment, could be a robot. And you place sensors in different places. You There’s different, There’s a library. You can understand what are the trade-offs that you’re making in the design of that system, and that was, like, a very, a very GUI intensive, thing ‘cause it’s a little more like a CAD tool in that senseSwyx [00:23:37]: YepPeter [00:23:37]: if you’ve seen CAD tools. Nowadays, though, right, we expose all of the underlying APIs for that and now using, AI agents, you can actually configure a sensor suite with just text and likely reach a better result than you could’ve through the GUI in the past, and we’re taking that thinking now through the whole product portfolio.Swyx [00:23:57]: Another thing I was thinking about is just in terms of, like, AI, adoption, does it change your hiring at least a little bit, or how do you, how do you sort of manage engineers, differently?Peter [00:24:08]: Yeah. absolutely, it does. we, I think like every company in the Valley right now, are evolving our hiring practicesPeter [00:24:16]: because the skills required to be effective are changing so fast, right? you used to really select for just rote implementation ability and now it is more the AI engineer skill set, right? Where it’s like, yeah, how to implement, but actually-Just banging out code is no longer the core job, right? It’s, it’s actually knowing what questions to ask, knowing how to tie, how to tie together these different AI tools. And so the interviews that we give now I think are way harder than they’ve ever been.Peter [00:24:46]: But we also allow, right, selective use of AI tools to solve the problems. And I think in that you start to see more of a bimodal distribution of engineers, right? You start to see like wow, there’s, there’s this subset of people that they really get it. Like they’re, they’re all in and they’ve, they’ve clearly invested the hours needed to learn these tools and how to be effective.Peter [00:25:09]: And then there’s sort of the group of people that haven’t done that, and that the productivity gap is just enormous. And so we’re, we’re trying to obviously select for the people that are really into this.Qasar [00:25:20]: I first wrote the my AI engineer piece three years ago, and when I first wrote about it, I was like, “Actually, not everyone should be an AI engineer,” ‘cause I think there’s a there’s an extremist stance where well, every software is an engineer is an AI engineer. And my actual example of people who should not be adopting AI was embedded systems and operating systems, and database people. Are they adopting AI?Peter [00:25:41]: I think it’s the classic bitter lesson, topic, which is the Six months ago I would’ve said the same thing, but it’s, it’s becoming super useful for every domain.Qasar [00:25:53]: I’m sure.Peter [00:25:54]: Right? Like,Peter [00:25:56]: there was, I think six months ago, or maybe a year ago, if you tried to use, let’s say the latest Claude model for writing shaders, GPU shaders, the results were probably underwhelming. And if you use the latest model now to do that kind of task, you’re a little bit blown away, like, “Wow, that actually worked. That’s amazing.” And we see the same thing in the embedded realm. No question though, especially when you get into safety critical systems, the human validation isPeter [00:26:25]: is 100% key. Like I You’re not gonna trust your life to a an AI written software that’s, that’s not been very carefully, checked by humans. And so I think now the really the challenge is about that appropriate level of human validation for these safety critical systems.Verifiable Rewards, Evals, and Neural SimulationAlessio [00:26:41]: How do you think about, yeah, touching on the simulation side, I think verifiable reward and reinforcement learning is, like, the hottest thing. What have you done internally to build around that? And like, what gives you What makes you sleep at night? Like, if somebody’s like, just web coding something or likeAlessio [00:26:57]: wants to try something new, you have like a good enough system. Because I think the opposite is also true, is like if it’s super easy to write anythingAlessio [00:27:04]: then it puts a lot of work on like the verifiableAlessio [00:27:07]: side of it. Like, what does that look like for people?Peter [00:27:10]: Yeah. So verifiability, a broader bucket of like evaluations, right? Like how do you evaluate the results that you’re, you’re getting? I think this is probably the hardest problem right now, because the As the models get better, it can be harder and harder to find the faults on the system.Peter [00:27:29]: And so like the problem of doing proper eval to find those faults, like that problem also keeps getting harder as the models get better. But it’s no less important than it’s ever been, right? You still there are still going to be edge cases that are not met and whatnot. And so it’s, it’s a big area of investment for us. On the reinforcement learning topic, the key thing is there’s all these new requirements that come to be in the latest generation of these technologies. So for example, end-to-end is the big thing right now in autonomy and physical AI, which is you can now train these models that can effectively take sensor data in and then put control signals out, and get really good results out of that. But the way that you train and improve those models is really different from the previous generations. And so to do reinforcement learning on an end-to-end model, you now need to actually simulate all the sensor data, right? So then this becomes a we call our, work in this neural simulation, but it’sPeter [00:28:26]: think of it like a hybrid of Gaussian, splatting and diffusion methods, and where you really care about performance. Like performance is everything. If you can’t do enough simulation fast enough and cheap enough, you actually can’t get results that are worthwhile, in the end. It also gets to a lot of our work in embedded systems, which is like performance critical work, and that performance optimization, performance criticality, it carries over to a lot of the model training work. because, like, the only way to make it affordable is it has to be really fast.Qasar [00:28:58]: I think it’s worth a few minutes talking about our own, evolving thoughts on verification and validation withinQasar [00:29:05]: kind of, traditional simulators, which are, you can think of like vehicle dynamics or something like that, which you’re just taking textbooks and taking those formulasQasar [00:29:13]: and putting them into software, to like now this neural sim/world model universe. I think that’s an interesting topic.Peter [00:29:20]: Yeah. So in more traditional development, right, you oftentimes would have, more black-and-white answers to questions.Peter [00:29:28]: And so the in Europe as an example, there’s, a regulatory, system, it’s called Euro NCAP. It’s the European New Car Assessment Program, and as part of that, the vehicles have to pass a bunch of tests, and those tests actually, include, safety systems. So automatic emergency braking for a child that runs in front of a carPeter [00:29:51]: or let’s say an occluded child that runs out and you hit it. And so you have You end up with sort of these binary answers of like, well, did the car under test pass this specific test? And there’s a very well-known set of test casesPeter [00:30:05]: that the vehicle has to pass. And that was how the industry worked, let’s say, until 10-ish years ago. But what’s changed now is with these models, everything is statistics, right? Like you no longer have a black-and-white answer, but it’s like, well, how many orders of magnitude or how many nines of reliability can I get in the system, and how can I, how can I prove that to be true? And the big unlock honestly for physical AI as an industry is that these models are just becoming much more reliable. Right? Things like things actually work a lot better. It’s like the number of nines you can get out of these systems are now good enough that it actually becomes cost effective to really deploy these things. And so the big shift in, so verification and validation has been from a little bit more of a Again the past it was strictly requirements, and are you meeting or not? And now it’s more of a statistical, verification and validation case where it’s all about how many nines of reliability and meantime between failures, that sort of thing.Statistical Validation, Regulators, and the Cruise LessonSwyx [00:31:04]: And is the target audience regulators or even the customers are yeah, if you I imagine the customers are bought in, and it’s mostly regulators that need to be satisfied.Peter [00:31:15]: We do work with the US government, we do work of course with the European governments and the government of Japan, and the government is not like an AI lab by any means.Peter [00:31:25]: So Swyx [00:31:26]: They just care about the outcome.Peter [00:31:27]: They care about the outcome.Peter [00:31:28]: And so we do education, in that regard, and like so sort of teaching about, “Hey, this is how we think validation should be done, and this is an approach that we think is reasonable,” and how to think about like when is a driverless system actually safe enough to go on the roads and that sort of thing. But I wouldn’t say that the government is asking for it. It’s like we’re more teaching the government in that, in that sense. It’s honestly, it’s more so for our own, our own comfort, right? Like, we want to build very safe systems, and then of course our customers care deeply about that as well. But in that context we’re also typically educating our customers.Qasar [00:32:01]: Yeah. Our first, our first core value is on round safety. So I think we can’t underline enough that, us also verifying and validating that the systems that we’re deploying are safe to us is probably as important as, like, some regulator or a customer saying,Swyx [00:32:19]: Of course. Okay. Yeah.Swyx [00:32:20]: You have to satisfy yourselves.Peter [00:32:22]: As I say, as a whole across the world, regulation oftentimes it’s like a almost lowest common denominator. But like, you really have to substantially exceed what the regulators are expecting to make good products.Swyx [00:32:33]: Yeah. One thing I often talk about, I think and I try to make this relatable to the audience also, is Cruise, where they had an accident that basically ended the company. I wonder if people overreact to single incidents, because incidents are going to happen regardless, right? ‘Cause it’s a statistical thing, but as long I don’t know if regulators understand that, you cannot extrapolate from a single incident, but we do because that’s all we have to go on. And your sample sizes are necessarily gonna be lower than, I don’t knowSwyx [00:33:00]: consumer driving.Qasar [00:33:01]: Yeah. I think the Cruise example wasn’t a technology failure. there was The real, compounding issue there was just how did the company talk to the regulators and what was their kind of behavior, and I think that became more of the issue. If you look,Peter [00:33:19]: It isn’t It definitely was a technology failure, but it was made much worse by theSwyx [00:33:23]: Put the car back on the woman.Qasar [00:33:25]: Yeah. And let me put it another way. There is a version where Cruise still exists.Swyx [00:33:29]: right. Right.Qasar [00:33:30]: Right. It’sSwyx [00:33:30]: It was like the last strawQasar [00:33:31]: ItSwyx [00:33:31]: in like a long chain ofSwyx [00:33:33]: like issues.Qasar [00:33:33]: So do you feel like ATG had that horrific accident or someone actually dying, because, that was a homeless person crossing the street? So yeah, I think we can’t understate enough that ultimately, like, statistical validation of something, that’s one part of it, but it’s not the only part of it. Like, consumer and let’s say, mainstream adoption of these technologies is also gonna be part of that conversation. I think companies like Waymo are doing a lot of service positively to the industry in the sense of they’re, they’re setting a high benchmark and they’re showing, kind of in a very responsible way how to, how to deal with these. There have been Waymo incidences as well. They’ve just not been as significant as the Cruise one that you mentioned. But yeah, so I think you’ll just continue to see that. I think probably the long term question is really gonna be, again, around Like it is very clear humans are way worse drivers statistically.Qasar [00:34:29]: Like, there’s no, there’s no debate. And so at what point But we’re emotional animals.Swyx [00:34:34]: Yeah. So my thing is, like, we have to get to a point as a society where we accept horrific accidents that would never happen by a human because statistically we understand that it is safer overall. In the same way that planes, they’re safer, than I think they’re the safest mode of transport that we have.Qasar [00:34:50]: Yeah. it’s more dangerous to drive to the airport than it is to get on a flight.Qasar [00:34:53]: So if you’re everQasar [00:34:54]: if you’re ever getting nervous about getting on a plane, just think “I just gotta get to the airport.”Swyx [00:34:58]: Yes, we’re flying.Qasar [00:34:59]: If I get to the airportQasar [00:35:00]: I’ll be good.Swyx [00:35:00]: But then it’s, planes also concentrate the tail risk if planesQasar [00:35:03]: Yeah. AndPeter [00:35:04]: And I was, I don’t think we honestly have to worry about there ever being, accidents from these systems that are like much worse than what humans would cause, ‘cause humans do terrible things.Peter [00:35:14]: Like, people fall asleep at the wheel all the time.Swyx [00:35:16]: I have.Swyx [00:35:17]: Like, I’ll call, I’ve been a drowsy driver.Peter [00:35:19]: Kinda drunk drivers, and that’sPeter [00:35:20]: that’s the extreme end of the example. But these AI systems, you have redundancies, you have fallbacks. Like, there’s many things have to go wrong for there to actually be a something catastrophic because there’s, there’s so many, fallbacks that these systems have.Alessio [00:35:36]: your simulation is like so vast because there’s so many use cases. What are, like, maybe things that worked in a simulation and then you put it out and it’s like, “F**k, this isAlessio [00:35:45]: this just did not work at all?”Peter [00:35:47]: Yes.Alessio [00:35:47]: IsPeter [00:35:47]: That’s maybe a bit of a misconception, about simulation there. So let me go a little bit, more technical on this. So at first go, no simulation is going to represent the real world. There’s always a process of this, sim to real matchingPeter [00:36:02]: where you actually, you need the real world feedback to basically feed into the parameters that are being used in the simulator, and you have to do that, it’s like this validation flow, a number of times until you can get some confidence that, like I think the simulator is now accurately representingPeter [00:36:19]: what’s gonna happen in the real world. Now, if you have a situation where you’ve done that full validation and you thought that it was accurate and then there’s something different, those are much trickier cases, and that’s, that absolutely can happen, but really I think the validation process is a really important part. You can never skip the simulation validation process, like where you’re actually ensuring that, hey, the actual, my sim to real gap here is small enough that I can trust these simulation results. And there’s, there’s so many fun things that you can do when you get into it. Like, I’ll, I’ll give one fun example that came up recently is like in these humanoid robotics, systemsOverheating actuators is a real problem, right? So obviously phenomenal demos. IPeter [00:37:01]: The most amazingAlessio [00:37:02]: For 10 minutes.Peter [00:37:03]: The most amazing I can get. I love, I love watching robots do acrobatics like everybody but the these systems actually overheat, right? If, like, And one of the ways you can use simulation though is you can actually have that, the temperature of those actuators be one of the parameters that’s representedPeter [00:37:18]: in the simulation. And if you’re doing reinforcement learning over a certain task, then the robot can actually adjust its motions in the simulation to account for the fact that, oh, it knows that as it’s moving, it’s actually beginning to overheat this motor. But if you didn’t have that parameter of, let’s say, the heat of that motor represented in the simulation initially, then your RL policy might It will disregard that. And now you run that on the robot and the robot will overheat and fail.Alessio [00:37:43]: I guess the question is, like, how do you have all of these parameters taken care of while also understanding the deployment environment? Like, temperature is like a great example, right? WellAlessio [00:37:53]: why did you make my robot worse when it runs in like a freezer?Alessio [00:37:57]: So it actually shouldn’t worry about that. it’s like, yeah, how do you design these simulations?Peter [00:38:02]: This is honestly the This is what makes simulation so hard, right? it’s because you Simulation is fundamentally about you’re trying to optimize the development of a system, right? Like, how can I build this system faster and better and cheaper and what are all the levers that I have to actually accomplish that? And because simulation’s just a software program, you can, you can change it a lot more easily than you can hardware systems. And then what’s particularly awesome about the let’s say, world models and using that as a part of simulation is now the simulation doesn’t just scale with, let’s say, adding new math equations inPeter [00:38:36]: but we can actually scale the simulation environment now with additional real world data and that also unlocks a whole new field of robotics.Qasar [00:38:46]: There is a meniscus line where you cross where still doing real world testing is better. there’s, in this, sim-to-real gap, you can reproduce reality at exceedingly expensive costs and this So nothing is free. So really you have to you’re finding that line where you’re getting great performance, you’re getting great feedback, whether it’s on the training side or on the eval side, but it’s way cheaper than doing it in the real world. At some point it, that doesn’t make sense. And so even, from our earliest days in autonomy, our view was you’re still gonna do real world testing. You There’s, there’s not, there’s not this, magical land where you’re not gonna do that. And maybe even like a more nuanced version of this in like traditional software development is, most of your testing for software in a vehicle, 95% of that can be like traditional CI/CD kind of, flows that you would have in traditional web development. But once you have Now you, let’s say you have a truck. Well, you can do like 4% of those in like a rig which has all the components, the electrical and electronics of a truck, but doesn’t have, it doesn’t have the tires and it doesn’t have the And then you have the 1%, which is actually the vehicle. There’s something There’s a similar analogy in terms of using simulation for intelligent systems. You can do a lot in a simulator, but in using world models, but ultimately it’s, it’s physical AI. So you’re gonna deploy it on physical machines andQasar [00:40:17]: the freezer example comes to, comes to light.Alessio [00:40:20]: The world model thing has been to me the hardest thing toAlessio [00:40:22]: wrap my head around. Like we have Faith Eliyon on the podcast.World Models, Hydroplaning, and Cause-Effect LearningQasar [00:40:25]: We’ve been doing a small series with like another Intuition company, General Intuition as well.Qasar [00:40:31]: yeah, and I mean, lots of, lots of coverage on NeRFs and yes.Alessio [00:40:34]: Yeah. It feels like we talk with about, the heliocentric system, right? It’s like in a world model, if you just feed visual data, the model might learn that the sun spins around the Earth. It makes sense, right? And it’s like, well, not really. And I think what are like some of these other things that like hydroplaning is one thing I think about, is like can a world model understand hydroplaning and like what amount of water like causes it to happen? And it’s like, yeah, to me it’s like I don’t understand how you guys do it. I guess it’s like the real thing is like when you’re doing both cars and the highway in Japan versus the excavator in a mine in,Qasar [00:41:13]: ArizonaAlessio [00:41:13]: wherever you’re Arizona, wherever you’re deploying them.Alessio [00:41:15]: How much of it are you relying on the world models to like generate the simulations for you and then try and close the gap after versus like giving the world models as a tool to your engineers to like curate the simulations if that makes sense?Peter [00:41:28]: Yeah, totally. So yeah, I can say at a pure engineering level, I think if you’re hoping to do real world deploys and you’re purely relying on a world model approach, you probably won’t get to something that works, before you go bankrupt. So there is just a very practical mindset of like, world models are amazing and they’re extremely useful for a lot of use cases, but there are a lot of other things that you need to do to actually get something started and something deployed and working. most fundamentally, world models are all about It’s understanding the world, but also understanding what’s going to happen. It’s like the cause-effect relationship.Peter [00:42:01]: Right? And so like it, right, if you have a take some sort of construction tool, and that construction tool is gonna be doing some work on the Earth in some way, it’s gonna be moving earth, the world model needs to understand that cause-effect relationship. Like, okay, when I, when I take this material from here and put it over there and now I have things that are over here and not over there anymore and that cause-effect, relationship. data obviously is a is a big problem. The hydroplaningPeter [00:42:26]: one is actually a really great example because it’s actually quite non-obvious sometimes. Right? It’s like, well, it’s, it’s raining and well this road, has, let’s say the appropriate curvature to it so the water is running off the road and cars are driving faster here and then you approach a road that’s very flat and water is now puddling on that road and all of a sudden cars are driving slower because when they were driving faster they were starting to lose control. And there are a lot of visual nuance, very nuanced visual cues in the scene and so I do think in the world model concept there’s a good chance that the model actually would learn that you should just drive slower when these visual cues exist, and that’s obviously the beautiful-The beauty of, these kinds of models where they just, they learn these non-obvious things.Swyx [00:43:14]: It doesn’t need to know about hydroplaning to know that it needs to drive slower.Peter [00:43:17]: Yes.Swyx [00:43:17]: I guess it’s Yeah. I wanna ask questions about, also deploying models. I presume, like, you use a lot of these world models for training data and simulation, but what about deploying it onto the systems in production? Presumably you have you have, like, GPUs on deviceOnboard vs. Offboard: Latency, Embedded ML, and DistillationSwyx [00:43:36]: but they’re I keep saying on device. What’s the what’s the right term for that?Peter [00:43:40]: On machine.Swyx [00:43:41]: On machine.Peter [00:43:41]: Or embedded, yeah.Swyx [00:43:42]: Yeah. What is the embedded world like? because for people who are not used to that world, this is very alien.Peter [00:43:49]: Yeah. So it’s actually We call it onboard and off board.Peter [00:43:52]: So like, onboard software and off board software.Peter [00:43:54]: And the great thing about off board software is you don’t have to care about time, and you can run really large models, right? So you can, you can say, “Well, this model, I don’t care if it takes one second for it to give me a result or 10 seconds for it to give me a result, because we have time.” And the models can be really big, and they can run, in a data center or on a on a huge GPU and you can obviously have distribute to compute, et cetera. But onboard you don’t have any of those benefits. You’re like, “Well, I need I have this many milliseconds where I need an answer from this model.” And so a lot more of the energy then is about, think of it more like distillation and it’s like truly efficiency and like, literally every fraction of a millisecond counts. And you can’t have a situation where the model takes too long because then the vehicle can’t actually function.Peter [00:44:42]: And so you can, you can still use a lot of the same techniques, and the models themselves you can think of as like a derivative of larger models that you can run offline, and then you’re, you’re trying to just get a model that is still performs really well but it’s, it’s a it’s smaller, small enough version that you can then run on this embedded system where you care about latency and power.Qasar [00:45:03]: Yeah. And I think like, the broader point I think which, maybe is not obvious but it’s worth saying is in physical AI world, we’re not really constrained right now by, like, the intelligence of the models. It’s actually what Peter’s talking about, it’s actually deploying them inSwyx [00:45:19]: The hardware they give you.Qasar [00:45:21]: Yeah. On the hardware you give you.Qasar [00:45:22]: And so And there’s just a reality is of safety critical systems. So those end up being the your limiting factorsQasar [00:45:29]: rather than, let’s say, a limiting factor for, a foundation model companyQasar [00:45:34]: is gonna be just capital maybe or researchers.Qasar [00:45:38]: So we’re, we’re in that way dealing with, for us as people who kind of come in that realm with like a very interesting Those constraints force creativity.Swyx [00:45:47]: And I imagine, nobody was deploying or giving you the hardware for transformers back in 2018, whatever, but now they are. What’s the evolution like? just peel back the curtains a little bit.Peter [00:45:59]: Yeah. Transformers first off, I think the paper was originally published in 2017.Swyx [00:46:02]: 2017.Swyx [00:46:02]: So there’s no time.Peter [00:46:04]: And ISwyx [00:46:05]: But I’m just saying I guess I’m saying, like, embedded ML systems usually, like, a lot less parameters, a lot less compute, and now, like, orders of magnitude more.Peter [00:46:14]: Yeah. absolutely. what I was gonna say though was I think in the in the original paper in 2017, maybe it’s in the last paragraph, somewhere in the paper they talk about, like, “Oh, by the way, this technique might be useful for, like, images and videos as well.”Peter [00:46:30]: These last subjects.Peter [00:46:31]: And it took a few years for that impact to really hit. But like, now, we’re seeing transformers are everywhere.Swyx [00:46:39]: Yeah. Vision transformers.Peter [00:46:40]: And then then the compute just keeps getting better and better. But you do have this fundamental trade-off, right? It’s like you have power, you have cost, and performance and like, getting the right, getting the right mix of those things in an embedded package that can also be, like, shaken and baked in all thePeter [00:47:00]: conditions that these things have to have to operate in. But yeah, I think that they’re only going to keep getting better and so we also try to plan our strategy understanding that, we know the rate of improvements of these systems.Swyx [00:47:11]: Yeah. So like, Google just released the Gemma 2B modelSwyx [00:47:15]: that effective 2B model. Is that useful to you guys or is that too big?Peter [00:47:18]: You can run that model on an embedded system, definitely.Peter [00:47:21]: the So yes, it’s, it’s useful in that regard. The bigger question is, like, what do you use it for in an embedded system? Like, you actually need to customize it quite a bit to make it useful for something. But yeah, you could run a two billion parameter model, definitely.Swyx [00:47:35]: It also interesting, like, what percent is a custom ML model that only does that thing versus a generalist LLMSwyx [00:47:41]: which probably is not that useful actually for your context.Peter [00:47:46]: Like, you, like, you can imagine different use cases, right?Peter [00:47:48]: So theSwyx [00:47:49]: The voice stuff, yes.Peter [00:47:49]: Yeah, the voice test. Totally, yes.Peter [00:47:51]: So for the actual, autonomy elements, that’s 100% in-house. We do every bit of that, the data simulation, the model, everything. But when you get into the more generic use cases like voice or voice assistant kind of thing, that’s where these more generalist models like Gemma actually can be quite, can be quite useful.Swyx [00:48:09]: Yeah. And then there’s also obviously a trade-off between, like, what percent must you do on machine, versus just call home.Peter [00:48:16]: Yeah. It’s all about latency.Swyx [00:48:17]: Latency.Peter [00:48:17]: It’s all about latency. Yeah.Swyx [00:48:18]: Yeah. Well, like, I think actually in a lot of contexts, especially in the US, you can just have a connection to the web.Qasar [00:48:26]: Yeah. I think though most of our universe is everything has to be fairly, embedded and local because just the nature of Even in the US there’s a lot of likeSwyx [00:48:39]: PatchinessQasar [00:48:40]: don’t haveQasar [00:48:41]: have coverage, right? And if you look at, like, the old world of autonomy within mining, which is, like, long before transformers and kind of, neural networks, in the like CNN and kind of a universe, they were really just hand-coded, systems. They were just like, this machine is gonna run to that place with thisPeter [00:49:03]: That was our GPS, like very accurate GPS.Qasar [00:49:05]: Yeah. And so that worked, and that worked for 20 years, so why would we actually need to use transformers or kind of more modern end-to-end systems? Mainly because you can only really run a path and run backwards. That provided a lot of value, but m-Not as much as you get when the machine is actually intelligent. It’s, it’s seeing, it’s perceiving, it’s acting in a dynamic world.Alessio [00:49:28]: I looked up RTK, real-time kinematic, one to two-centimeter accuracy.Qasar [00:49:32]: Yeah. Fantastic. But the and fantastic in faraway lands where there’s not gonna be cell phone coverage.Peter [00:49:39]: Yeah, so it’s widely used on the legacy mining and agricultural autonomy systems today. So like, for example, a combine that can be precise within one or two centimeters as it’s driving down the field, they use RTK.Qasar [00:49:53]: Yes.Peter [00:49:53]: But it’s, it’s expensive.Qasar [00:49:54]: Yeah. And it’s, it’s, it’s autonomy, but it’s not intelligent in the way that I think all of usQasar [00:49:58]: if in twenty-six we’d be talking about intelligence.Alessio [00:50:00]: In one of your blog posts, you mentioned research on large scale transformers that are similar to those doing modern generative AI. What are, like, the big differences other than, “You’re absolutely right. I should steer the car, so you probably wanna remove that?”Peter [00:50:14]: We have a diversified bet strategy internally, and the reason we’ve done that is because we operate in now a bunch of industries, a bunch of geographies, and each of the approaches has, obviously a different risk to them.Peter [00:50:27]: And so like, we’re not going to put all of our eggs in a single basket for a single approach because that approach may not work out.Peter [00:50:36]: and so that’s, that’s one of the bets that we have, and it has certain advantages in certain scenarios, and then But the way that these things play out in practice is it has certain benefits and also has certain drawbacks. And then, and then the research team tries to then work on, the situations where that’s actually worse than these other approaches and to ultimately arrive at a really great solution for all of these things.Plan Mode for Physical Systems and Next-Token Prediction UniversallyAlessio [00:50:57]: Is there a plan mode for physical autonomy, like the other planning step and then, action step or?Peter [00:51:03]: So short answer is yes, right? So just like you can use, Claude code to plan out some complex coding task and you get some almost specification written out, those similar approaches absolutely can be applied to physical systems because imagine you’re trying to accomplish some task. The easiest to think about is robotaxi, but I thinkPeter [00:51:23]: things get more interesting, let’s say, in the defense context or in the in the mining context. You actually do have to think about many steps in advance.Peter [00:51:32]: It’s, it’s not just this one thing, but to accomplish the goal, there’s a hundred steps, and then the this concept of the plan mode, it’s, yeah, very applicable, in thoseAlessio [00:51:40]: Yeah. I was gonna say, to me, driving feels like a great next token prediction thing because you’re kinda like on a path and like, it doesn’t really matter what you’ve done before. you can always turn around.Qasar [00:51:49]: It’s all planning. Yeah.Alessio [00:51:50]: Yeah. Versus, like, mining, it’s like, “Oh, man, I took a I took a scoop out of this thing.” It’s like, now we can’t reallyAlessio [00:51:57]: I can’t really go there anymore. it’s like, is there like a huge difference? Like, how would you I guess, like, do you have like a taxonomy of, like, these different types? So there’s kinda like drivingAlessio [00:52:07]: excavating, like, flying. How do youPeter [00:52:11]: So the interesting thing is, yeah, I think probably everything in the world can actually be boiled down to, like, a next token prediction problem.Peter [00:52:18]: and in any workflow, anything, can be thought of almost as like there’s this sequence of steps or the sequence of trajectories or what-whatever you wanna call it, and it can be boiled down actually to that sort of thing. And in the mining case, you can imagine, like, taking that scoop. Okay, that was that set of tokens, and now that’s, the model is now understanding that, okay, that the state space is different, and now the next time I do token predictions, it’s going to, going to be modified by that. But yeah, these The remarkable thing about these techniques is just how universally applicable they are, right? it’s, it’s truly is incredible.Alessio [00:52:53]: What else is underrated about what you guys are building on the physical side? I think there I mean, we were talking about it before the episode. There’s a lot of humanoid companies that do these great demos, and then I can’t buy it, so obviously it can’t all be there. In your case, you’re, like, in production on real streets with, like, a lot of customers. What are, like, the things people are underestimating? The same way the Waymo demos seven years ago were great and then took seven years to actually get them on the street. Can you share about maybe like, the last one percent that was really hard to get done technically?Productionization: The 20 Problems Every Robotics Demo Will HitPeter [00:53:27]: Yeah. So certainly, productionizing stuff is really challenging no matter what. So I maybe would, I would split the answer maybe into research and then also in production. First, on the production side, there’s just so many problems that you find when you actually get the stuff to go in the real world. And so the classic problem in humanoids right now is these systems are actually pretty brittle.Peter [00:53:48]: and so I’m not talking about any one company, but just as an industry, these systems are pretty brittle. interestingly, I saw this thing, the other day that, I think China is doing a marathon with humanoids.Qasar [00:54:00]: What?Peter [00:54:00]: Yeah. So in government, and not China specifically, but in any government, there is a there’s a concept called, prize policy, which is so that there’s, there’s different ways of influencing an industry to go a certain direction. Like, you can, you can regulate it, right? You can do mandates, or you can actually just do these competitions. So the US version of this was the DARPA Grand Challenge. thatAlessio [00:54:20]: That worked.Peter [00:54:21]: But it really worked. ItAlessio [00:54:22]: That really workedPeter [00:54:22]: took the whole industry. But I think China is literally doing this marathon because they know that reliability, of these humanoids is a problem. And so what cooler way to solve that than to have a competition where humanoids need to run twenty-six miles, right?Alessio [00:54:37]: Are we there? Can robots run a marathon?Peter [00:54:40]: I think it’s happening any day now.Peter [00:54:42]: So it’sAlessio [00:54:43]: So we’re there.Qasar [00:54:43]: By the way, also, automotive, there’s a version of this which is, like, twenty-four Hours Le Mans, right?Qasar [00:54:48]: It’s like Porsche wins twenty-four Hours Le MansAlessio [00:54:51]: New productQasar [00:54:51]: and then literally puts those, the products into production. I would actually break it down. You, talk about research and you talk about production. There’s actually a step in the middle which is, like, advanced engineering, and I think a lot of the industry is moving into advanced engineering where it’s like it’s not fundamental research. Like, we’re coming in with novel techniques. It really is advanced engineering for production. So what are the subcomponents that are gonna limit to getting into production? Once you’re in production, you’re dealing with another set of problems which is, like, the deployment, maintenance, of those machines that exist. So I’d say, at least in our field-We’re mostly in advanced engineering in the like, automotive parlance.Peter [00:55:29]: honestly, every step is hard though.Alessio [00:55:33]: Paul, this way you’re worth 15 billion dollars, so don’t answer.Qasar [00:55:36]: You bleed every step.Qasar [00:55:38]: Yeah. And I thinkPeter [00:55:39]: It’s fun. I think it’s like, I don’t know. I find it really enjoyable. Yeah, but what it was also fun is like, so we’ve, we’ve been doing this now for almost ten years, and we’ve just seen, we’ve seen so much bad times. And so right now we can look at any company in this space and like, get a demo, and like, I can, I can write down a list of I know exactly the next 20 problems they’re gonna hit.Peter [00:55:59]: And like, and I can guess also what they’re going to try to solve each of those, and I can guess which one’s gonna actually work.Qasar [00:56:04]: Yeah. It’s not because we’re, like, particularly, like, geniuses.Peter [00:56:07]: We’ve just seen this stuff now.Qasar [00:56:07]: Yeah. We’ve seen enough of this stuff. We lived enough of this stuff. We, our own kind of mental models of the world as leads in the company, we’ve tried so many things and many of We’re talking about the winds here. LikeQasar [00:56:21]: TherePeter [00:56:21]: Plenty of losses there.Qasar [00:56:21]: There’s plenty of losses among that many people doing that many different things and so that kinda, like, get baked into your, likeQasar [00:56:29]: mental model of the world.Peter [00:56:30]: Yeah. But I would say and in general, like, we’re excited about robotics for sure, and likePeter [00:56:34]: theQasar [00:56:36]: Massive opportunityPeter [00:56:37]: massive opportunity and what’s, what’s happening now in the industry is like none of these concept are new, right? What’s new is, like, this stuff is actually working now.Peter [00:56:46]: Right? The people have wanted to use, neural nets robotics for a long time, but now, like, again, we now have the data sets, we have the simulation technologies where stuff is actually starting to really work, and yeah, we wanna be part, wePeter [00:56:58]: we’re gonna be part of that for sure.Alessio [00:57:00]: Do you have requests for startups or like, advice against starting certain startups? There’s a lot of, like, scale-up robotics, companies. It’s like what do you think are thingsQasar [00:57:10]: A lot of, a lot of applied intuitions for other things.Qasar [00:57:14]: I think you hit a you hit a certain, what is it, badge when YCPeter [00:57:21]: X for YQasar [00:57:21]: right, you become like, or literally the same similar names, like,? I think my biggest advice, in this, like, almost like commercialization of technology is I think often the that constraint, so we talked about, like, hardware constraints, or we talked about, there’s also, like, on the commercial side, there’s constraints, which is we’re gonna only do things that fit in this box. That is, I think very good for founders. The reason I think it’s not often focused on is because you have plenty of access to capital, and the technical problems are so hard you’re like, “I already have a constraint,” which is just getting this technical problem solved, and I think the venture community, generally speaking, tends to be not very technical. For them, if you just say, “If we solve this thing, it’s gonna be a lot of money,” that’s kind of enough for them, but you as a founder, I’m not giving you advice on how to pitch VCs. That’ll work for VCs. You still gotta run a sustainable business. And I think we’re really in that, question you asked earlier about kind of, what’s maybe not obvious about our company. It’s like this is truly compounding technology. A lot of the work that we do just compounds. we don’t throw it away. It gets better. The operating system work gets better. The dev tooling gets better. The models get better, and so we’re really gonna get a hu- I think you see it in Waymo as an example. Like, Waymo is a company that is, I would say, very interesting for a long time, but not worth one hundred and twenty-six billion dollars, right? So what happens, like, is that the human brain just doesn’t emotionally understand the compounding effects, so that’s gonna happen in our universe. So now if you’re a founder, you’re at the beginning of that long, walk. If you can put a little constraint on commercials that has a small ability for you to more likely see the other end of that, the that walk, ‘cause if you can get to the other end, you will get the big return from compounding technology. Just a lot of people just don’t make it. So yeah. summarize, like, think a little bit about the equation of how you use money and where you use the limited resources and limited engineers that you have. I think sometimes then founders falsely kind of take very mature companies’ strategies and then apply to their, like, nascent. They’re like, “Oh, well, Steve Jobs says be completely vertical.” Well, yeah, in 2007, Apple is very different than 1978 and 1982. Those companies were different. They were literally just taking electronics from other manufacturers and just putting it in an enclosure. And so just be a bit more like, I don’t know, be a bit more nuanced in your, in your commercial approach as it informs your technical approach.Founder Advice: Constraints, Compounding Tech, and Mature-Company MimicryAlessio [01:00:03]: Do you feel differently today? Like, you just joined X, right?Alessio [01:00:06]: You’ve been building this companyAlessio [01:00:08]: you’ve been building this company in stealth, and now you’re like, “Well, I should probably be talking about what I’m doing.” I think a lot of founders are in a similar way where they wanna raise a lot of money to signal they’re strong, and you raise a lot of money without spending it.Qasar [01:00:20]: And to hire. And to hire, yeah.Alessio [01:00:21]: You obviously like that. Do you think that’s still possible to, like, have a very narrow approach of, like, “Hey, we’re kinda like building a compounding thing without a grand vision right away,” versusQasar [01:00:32]: It’s, it’s very difficult to answer very general questionsAlessio [01:00:35]: WellQasar [01:00:35]: that, I, but I, so maybe like, maybe I reframe it as in is it possible to build a product that has a small, let’s say, problem space and hope that the problem space will grow? Maybe that’s, like, a different way of asking the same question but ma- more answerable. I think always yes. That is the old YC, like, go really deep and then, rather than very broad and shallow.Qasar [01:01:00]: Very broad and shallow unfortunately, there’s just too many especially in hard tech companies, there’s just too many problems, and you can’you’re gonna do all of them in a very mediocre way, and so the full product is actually fairly mediocre. So yeah, I still in, I’m still in the camp of find a small problem space. The other question you’re asking is a tangential is, like, should you, like, build in stealth and anonymity? Well, yeah, if you’re a YC COOQasar [01:01:28]: you can beSwyx [01:01:29]: Oh, Travis Kalanick.Qasar [01:01:29]: And we, yeah, we worked, we worked, together at Google. We have a long history, and we don’t And which means, which is another way of saying we have big networks. our first of 400 people, majority were Googlers. Like, a majority of the company came from, this giant company we worked at, and that’s just very different. You’re a founder who is doesn’t have that experience. You have to do these things. And I think it’s kinda, that’s a so it’s like just don’t take my version of the world or whatever other founder, Jensen’s version of the world. They are in different time and space.Qasar [01:02:02]: And most importantly, their companies are in a different phase.Qasar [01:02:06]: And so then if you wanna take inspiration from other really young companies, that’s also bad because most of them are gonna fail.Qasar [01:02:11]: So the only, the only solution you really have is use first principle thinking and say, “Based on my skills, my co-founder’s skills, the skills of my early team members, and the what I’m hearing from customers, what’s a product space that I should, I should build?” AndQasar [01:02:26]: Yeah. Does that make sense?Swyx [01:02:27]: Yeah, it does.Alessio [01:02:27]: Yeah. I, Sam Altman, he said he regrets a lot of the advice that he’s given in YC.Alessio [01:02:33]: So I’m always curious to ask, founders like you who’ve now beenQasar [01:02:36]: So IAlessio [01:02:36]: Just a long time agoQasar [01:02:37]: everyone who leaves YC, like, does the opposite.Qasar [01:02:41]: well, Sam was president, I was COO.Qasar [01:02:43]: Right? So and we’d have a CEO, so we worked together, extremely closely would be an understatementQasar [01:02:48]: ‘cause the firm was also small. TheAlessio [01:02:50]: YepQasar [01:02:50]: YC wasn’t wasn’t as big as, like, an OpenAI is. I directionally agree with that, but I would say that’s not more of a YC function, it’s more of the marketQasar [01:03:02]: has changed.Qasar [01:03:03]: It is a different world. The AI industry is at the AI companies, I should say more specifically, and how they relate to the other YC companies and market, just so fundamentally different. The amount of money raised is different, the amount of investors, the sheer number of seed funds. One of our early investors is Floodgate, and they did some analysis in the late, 2000, like, double O’s, where they were like, “There’s, like, single-digit number of funds that were like Floodgate,” which were, like, writing sub $1 million checks, first checks, and they were not accelerating incubator. And Anne, who’s, who’s one of the co-founders there, with Mike, they said that today they try to do, or like, today as in, like, three, four years ago, they tried to do this analysis and they, like, lost count at, likeQasar [01:03:46]: 350 funds or something like that. So we’re just in a different environment, so the YC advice from 2014-Qasar [01:03:55]: just would not apply in 2026. But Sam is, like, way better at saying these things than me.Qasar [01:04:00]: Like, he sometimes makes sound like He says it in a shorter, most, more interesting and than me. I can just give you, like, the Like, I, like, if you ask me, like, “What is the purpose of a car?” Like, open the owner’s manual and I sayQasar [01:04:13]: “Number one, look, there’s a steering wheel,” and instead of, like, “It can change your life and will be there.”Alessio [01:04:21]: Yeah, it gives you autonomy and freedom.Qasar [01:04:22]: Yeah, exactly. Yeah.Swyx [01:04:24]: and then for Peter, I was just kinda curious if there’s any particular tech or research problem that you would call out as very meaningful for you guys if it was solved, and unsolved, and if anyone is working on it, they should get in touch with you.Peter [01:04:40]: Yeah, I think th- generally the making models very efficient, right? So because we have to run on actual vehicles, like physical AI is literally, it’s taking, like, very large AI and now making it very small and very efficient. And so we’re constantly just at that boundary of these limitations of, like, well, you have a great model, but now we need to make it faster and smaller and so that in general as a as a field. And then I would say also, folks that are just really passionate about, like, evaluating this technology. As in, like, mo- model evals, is, it’s a hugely difficult topic, especially in safety critical systems. And we have a I think a really great engineering team that works on this now and researchers, but it’s, it’s a big area of investment. And so yeah, folks that are passionate about, yeah, performance, I say model performance, both in terms of capability and literally latency, and then, and then evaluation of models.Hiring Philosophy: Hardware/Software Boundary and Engineering MindsetAlessio [01:05:41]: Awesome. You guys, any, specific engineering roles that you’re hiring for? And especially, like, who are people that succeed at your company as engineers? I think that’s always the most important thing.Qasar [01:05:50]: Yeah. fly.co/careers, I think there’s, there’s literally hundreds of roles. we’re looking at all the topics we talked about from, dev tooling and physical AI to operating systems, to autonomy and AI, within physical machines. The types of engineers, that’s a great question. That’s actually more interesting thanQasar [01:06:09]: the roles ‘cause we’re, we’re a large enough company, we’re roughlyAlessio [01:06:11]: Hiring everything.Qasar [01:06:12]: Everything, yeah. We hire everything.Qasar [01:06:14]: Yeah. I think we’re a Sunnyvale company and I think just from this conversation and kind of our backgrounds, you can kind of predict a little bit of what that means. we tend to hire fairly serious people, who are, who understand low-level systems, not just like a as a superficial understanding of technology, like engineers’ engineers almost. We definitely hire folks who are, like, have some diverse skill sets. We hire tons of specialists as well, to be very clear, but they’ve seen production and I think that, ‘cause that really informs how you, how you build technology.Peter [01:06:53]: Yeah. I would say people that really appreciate the hardware-software boundary.Qasar [01:06:56]: Yeah, exactly.Peter [01:06:56]: definitely in the vibe coding era, there are a crop of engineers that they don’t think about hardware at all.Peter [01:07:05]: And we don’t have that luxury, and so people that are a little more passionate about going a little bit deeper.Qasar [01:07:09]: Yeah, if you’re to contrast us versus, like, a AI lab or something, that’s where you’re gonna get the biggest contrast, which is, like, we’re just dealing with reality. what other things? All of the classic stuff. you want, you want folks who work hard and who are, who love the technology and like-Like a podcast like this or ratherQasar [01:07:30]: Like, if you made it to this part of the podcastQasar [01:07:33]: you’re probably qualified for or you’re interested in this.Swyx [01:07:37]: Yeah. And Peter said that he, likes the podcast as well, which is likeSwyx [01:07:42]: really cool.Qasar [01:07:43]: I’m a I’m a fan. Yeah.Swyx [01:07:44]: Yeah. Specifically on the hardware-software boundary part, it’s, it’s something I think about of our education system, in the States, but also maybe just in generally. I feel like there is that retreat away from that classical computer science or EE educationQasar [01:07:59]: Computer engineering or Yeah.Swyx [01:08:01]: And like, is there a point where you just do it yourself? Like, ‘cause at this point, you guys are the world experts on this, and actually you shouldn’t wait for some college system to spit them out for you.Peter [01:08:11]: you mean the in terms of education and upskilling kind of thing?Swyx [01:08:14]: Yeah. Yeah, just grab, like, youngQasar [01:08:16]: General Motors already did it.Swyx [01:08:17]: Smart kids.Peter [01:08:19]: GMI.Qasar [01:08:19]: Literally.Swyx [01:08:19]: Is there a Harvard University?Qasar [01:08:21]: Yeah, that’s where I went to for undergrad. Went to the General Motors Institute.Swyx [01:08:25]: I, that did not come up. I saw HBS.Swyx [01:08:27]: I didn’tQasar [01:08:27]: Everyone sees HBS.Qasar [01:08:31]: The Harvard brand, Lewis is high.Swyx [01:08:34]: What’s General Motors Institute like? WhatQasar [01:08:36]: it started 100 years ago for, to answer this exact question, literally the question you just said, which is likeQasar [01:08:40]: not enough engineers in Michigan. you’re talking about the early days of the modern corporationQasar [01:08:45]: General Motors being There’s a great book, Alfred P. Sloan’s, My Years with General Motors, that is highly recommended, which basically talks about what becomes a modern corporation. But a part of that is they’re like, “We are, we’re basically buffering on engineers.” So they started a school and actually even Google as most, as recent as probably 10 years ago was thinking of starting a university. In term there was discussions on it. So yeah, it was abso- we definitely up, we definitely upskill folks as well. The amount of training we do in term is actually surprising. Yeah. But it’s a luxury you have when you’re at our size.General Motors Institute, Education, and the Curiosity MindsetQasar [01:09:20]: When you’re, like, 25 engineersSwyx [01:09:22]: No.Qasar [01:09:22]: you just gotta survive. So again, take advice that’s relevant for your company rather than, like, immediately start trying to take high schoolersQasar [01:09:29]: and make them engineers.Swyx [01:09:30]: But I, like I did go up to a class that you taught ‘cause, like, it sounds like you can teach a lot.Peter [01:09:36]: Yeah. Well, I think honestly, the one of the most amazing use cases of these large models now is education, right?Peter [01:09:42]: Like, I’ve, I’ve taken, an engineer who, very good engineer, aerospace engineering background, and in a relatively short time span, like, he’s doing very confident front-end work, very confident back-end work, like, with the help of these models.Peter [01:09:57]: And like, not only can you do the implementation with them, but you can also just learn, right? It’s like you ask questions and you don’t feel embarrassed ‘cause the model’sPeter [01:10:04]: not gonna, model’s not gonna call you out on anything.Qasar [01:10:07]: Yeah. I think the I think the thing you probably need more than an engineering degree, though engineering degrees are, like, very important, like, I don’t know if there’s a way to shortcut, like, fluid dynamics or heat transferPeter [01:10:17]: The fundamental stuffQasar [01:10:17]: the fundamental stuff, at least on the mechanical side, is you need an engineering mindset and that sometimes is actually Not everybody actually has that. Some people are emotionally drawn towards arts or something else and that’s completely fine. There’s no judgment there. But I think the engineering mindset maybe in a more usable way is, like, wanting to understand a lower level and the lower level and the lower Like, how do photons move?Peter [01:10:42]: And extreme curiosity.Qasar [01:10:44]: Extreme curiosity. Like, what is light? What is a radio wave? Like, these really fundamental questions.Peter [01:10:49]: Right. If and if you get curious enough about software, you ultimately end up in hardware.Peter [01:10:55]: And soSwyx [01:10:56]: That’s the Alan Kay quote. Yeah.Qasar [01:10:57]: Yeah, exactly.Swyx [01:10:58]: So I’m trying to make analogies and then do all these things. Like, you’re kind of a blend between new General Motors and Tesla autonomy division for everyone else.Qasar [01:11:07]: we do work in all these other fields. I think if you talk to our trucking customers, they wouldn’t even perceive, they, like, some sense like, “Oh, you guys did some automotive stuff, but you’re, you’re really helping us.” SoSwyx [01:11:18]: Automotive is not trucking?Qasar [01:11:19]: No. no. That’s, that’sSwyx [01:11:20]: It’s, like, a wholeQasar [01:11:21]: It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s separate. There’s different problems. The mass And you have, you have the general categories of on-road and off-road. I think that’s what you’re thinking. So there’s on-road and off-road, but within on-road there’s all these subclassesSwyx [01:11:33]: Oh, okayQasar [01:11:33]: of machines. Especially when you talk about, you look at, a delivery robot that doesn’t have a human in it. That’s actually very different because now you’re not concerned with, like, the actual feeling that you haveQasar [01:11:45]: when you’re in a self-driving system. You don’t have to account for that. You canSwyx [01:11:48]: Just break.Qasar [01:11:48]: You can, you break hard.Qasar [01:11:50]: And you don’t care about jerk and all of these metrics don’t, or become inPeter [01:11:53]: The way to think about it, honestly, is a little bit like, any system that you as an as a human would need special training to operate, you can think of a little bit differently. So like, the license to operate a truck is different from the license to operate a carPeter [01:12:04]: which is different from the license to fly a plane. It’s different from You get it, right?Swyx [01:12:08]: Awesome, guys. Thank you for taking the time.Qasar [01:12:10]: Yeah, thanks for having us.Peter [01:12:11]: Thanks for having us.Peter [01:12:11]: Thank you. [outro music] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• AIE Europe Debrief + Agent Labs Thesis: Unsupervised Learning x Latent Space Crossover Special (2026) 23.04.2026 54min

  Today, we check in a year after the first Unsupervised Learning x Latent Space Crossover special to discuss everything that has changed (there is a lot) in the world of AI. This episode was recorded just after AIE Europe, but before the Cursor-xAI deal.Unsupervised Learning is a podcast that interviews the sharpest minds in AI about what’s real today, what will be real in the future and what it means for businesses and the world - helping builders, researchers and founders deconstruct and understand the biggest breakthroughs.Thanks to Jacob and the UL production team for hosting and editing this!Jacob Effron* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacobeffron/* X: https://x.com/jacobeffronFull Episode on Their YouTubeWe discuss:* swyx’s view from the center of the AI engineering zeitgeist: OpenClaw, harness engineering, context engineering, evals, observability, GPUs, multimodality, and why conference tracks now reveal what matters most in AI* Whether AI infrastructure has finally stabilized: why “skills” may be the minimal viable packaging format for agents, why infra companies have had to reinvent themselves every year, and why application companies have had an easier time surviving model volatility* The vertical vs. horizontal AI startup debate: why application companies can act as the outsourced AI team for enterprises, why some horizontal companies still matter, and why sandboxes may be the clearest reinvention of classic cloud infrastructure for the AI era* The “agent lab” playbook: starting with frontier models, specializing for your domain, then training your own models once you have enough data, workload, and user behavior to justify the cost and latency savings* Why domain-specific model training is real, not just marketing: how companies like Cursor and Cognition can get users to choose their in-house models, and why search, domain specialization, and distillation are becoming more important* Open models, custom chips, and alternative inference infrastructure: why swyx has turned more bullish on open source, why non-NVIDIA hardware is suddenly getting real attention, and why every 10x speedup can unlock new product experiences* What it means to sell to agents instead of humans: why agent experience may mostly just be good developer experience by another name, why APIs and docs matter more than ever, and how pretraining-data incumbents are compounding advantages in an agent-first world* Why memory and personalization may become the next big wedge: today’s models mostly reward frequency of mentions, but in the future, swyx expects product choice to be shaped much more by personalized memory systems* The state of the AI coding wars: why coding has become one of the largest and fastest-growing categories in AI, how Anthropic, OpenAI, Cursor, and Cognition have all ridden the wave, and why the category may still have more room to run* Capability exploration vs. efficiency: why the industry is still in a token-maxing, experiment-heavy phase where people are rewarded for spending more rather than less* Claude Code vs. Codex and the strange stickiness of coding products: why first magical product experiences may matter more than expected, and why the bigger mystery may be why only a few names have emerged as real winners so far* What the end state of the coding market might look like: two major players, a longer tail of niche products, and possible disruption if Microsoft, Mistral, xAI, or the Chinese labs push harder into coding* Where application companies still have room against the labs: why frontier labs are trying to expand into verticals like finance and healthcare, but still leave space for focused companies that own the workflow and the last mile* Why coding may be a preview of every other AI market: the first category to truly go parabolic, the clearest example of foundation model companies colliding with application companies, and a template for how future vertical AI markets may develop* Why AI valuations now feel unbounded: from billion-dollar ARR products built in a year to trillion-dollar market caps, swyx and Jacob unpack how the AI market has broken traditional startup intuitions about scale and durability* Consumer AI vs. coding AI: why ChatGPT’s consumer category may have plateaued on frequency and product design, while coding continues to feel like a daily-use category with real momentum* The next product frontier beyond coding: consumer agents, computer use, and “coding agents breaking containment,” with swyx’s thesis that 2025 was the year of coding agents and 2026 may be the year they begin to do everything else* Whether foundation models are really killing startup categories: why swyx is less worried for early founders, more worried for mid-size startups and traditional SaaS, and why building something ambitious may now be the best job interview for a frontier lab* AI vs. SaaS and the internal culture war around adoption: the tension between AI-native employees who want to rip out expensive software and skeptics who think quick AI-built replacements create fragile systems* Why traditional SaaS may be under real pressure: swyx’s own experience spending six figures on event and sponsor management software, the temptation to rebuild it cheaply with AI, and the broader question of whether teams will trust custom AI-native replacements* Biosafety, security, and frontier model access: why swyx raised biosafety at a dinner with Anthropic’s Mike Krieger, why Krieger argued security is the bigger issue, and what restricted model releases reveal about Anthropic vs. OpenAI* The era of giant models: why 10T+ parameter systems may only be a temporary rationing phase before bigger clusters arrive, why labs may increasingly keep their most powerful models private for distillation, and why scale alone no longer feels like a complete answer* Memory as the slowest scaling factor in AI: why context windows have improved far more slowly than people hoped, why million-token context still has not changed most real workflows, and why memory may be the key bottleneck for the next generation of systems* What swyx changed his mind on in the past year: becoming more bullish on open models, more convinced that the top tier of agent startups behaves very differently from the median AI company, and more optimistic about fine-tuning and specialized model adaptation* “Dark factories” and zero-human-review coding: the next frontier after zero human-written code, where models not only write the code but ship it without human review, forcing companies to rethink testing and verification from first principles* Why RL and post-training may matter more than people assumed: even if the resulting models get thrown out every few months, the data, workflows, and domain-specific improvements persist* Synthetic rubrics, Doctor GRPO, and multi-turn RL: why reinforcement learning is becoming much more domain-specific and multi-step than many people realize, opening the door to much deeper customization* The next frontier after coding: memory, personalization, and world models, including why swyx thinks world models matter not just for robotics or gaming, but for giving AI something closer to lived understanding* Fei-Fei Li, spatial intelligence, and the Good Will Hunting analogy: the idea that today’s LLMs may know everything by reading it all, but still lack the lived experience that turns knowledge into a deeper kind of intelligenceTimestamps* 00:00:00 Intro preview: AI coding wars, startup pressure, and market structure* 00:00:28 Welcome to the Latent Space × Unsupervised Learning crossover* 00:01:17 What AI builders are focused on now: OpenClaw, harnesses, and infra* 00:04:33 Why AI infra is harder than apps, and where startups can still win* 00:06:39 Should companies train their own models?* 00:09:28 Open models, custom chips, and the new inference race* 00:11:25 Designing products for agents, not just humans* 00:16:49 The state of the AI coding wars in 2026* 00:19:27 Capability exploration, token-maxing, and why coding is going parabolic* 00:21:41 What the end state of the coding market could look like* 00:23:50 Where app companies still have room against the labs* 00:27:02 Why AI valuations and market swings feel unprecedented* 00:28:56 Consumer AI vs. coding AI, and why sticky products still matter* 00:32:28 What the next breakthrough product experience might be* 00:32:53 2026 thesis: coding agents break containment and eat the world* 00:35:27 Are foundation models wiping out startup categories?* 00:37:33 AI vs. SaaS, vibe coding, and internal team tensions* 00:40:01 Biosafety, security, and the politics of restricted model releases* 00:42:19 Giant models, compute constraints, and the limits of scale* 00:44:30 Memory as the real bottleneck in AI* 00:44:57 Why swyx changed his mind on open models* 00:47:44 Dark factories and the future of zero-human-review coding* 00:49:36 Why post-training and RL may matter more than people think* 00:51:50 Memory, world models, and the next frontier of intelligence* 00:53:54 The Good Will Hunting analogy for LLMs* 00:54:21 OutroTranscript[00:00:00] swyx: Isn’t that crazy? That number is just mind boggling.[00:00:03] Jacob Effron: What is the state of the AI coding wars today?[00:00:05] swyx: We’re in a phase of sort of like capability exploration. The general thesis that I have been pursuing now is that the same way that 2025 was a year coding agents 2026 is coding agents breaking containments to do everything else.[00:00:16] Jacob Effron: Do you worry about the foundation models just getting into a bunch of these startup categories?[00:00:21] swyx: Mid-size startups. Yes.[00:00:23] Jacob Effron: What do you think the end state of this market is[00:00:25] swyx: for the market structure to, to significantly change? There would be[00:00:28] Jacob Effron: today on unsupervised learning. We had a, a fun episode and what’s really become an annual tradition, a crossover episode with our friends at Latent space.Swix and I sat down and we talked about everything happening in the AI ecosystem today. What we thought of the various changes at the model layer, what’s happening in the infra world, the coding wars, and a bunch of other things. It’s a ton of fun to do this with someone I really respect and another great podcaster in the game.Without further ado, here’s our episode. Well switch. This is, uh, super fun to be back with another unsupervised learning, uh, latent space crossover episode.[00:01:02] swyx: Yeah,[00:01:02] Jacob Effron: I feel like a lot of places we could start, but you know, one thing I always find fascinating, uh, about the way you spend your time is you obviously are like at the epicenter of this engineering movement and community, and you run these events and conferences and put on these.Awesome talks and, and I think just have a great pulse on the zeitgeist of what’s going on.[00:01:16] swyx: Yeah.[00:01:17] Jacob Effron: Maybe to, to start just what are the biggest topics people are thinking about right now?[00:01:21] swyx: Yeah, so I just came back from London, uh, where we did a IE Europe and we’re doing roughly one per quarter now, which Yeah, you’ve[00:01:27] Jacob Effron: really up[00:01:27] swyx: the, hopefully[00:01:28] Jacob Effron: up the, up the pace.[00:01:29] swyx: It’s trying. We’re trying to match AI speed, youknow?[00:01:30] Jacob Effron: Yeah, exactly. The tops would be completely different, I imagine. Uh,[00:01:33] swyx: yeah. You know, I definitely curate the tracks, like you can see what I think. When you see the track list and the, the speakers that I invite, obviously Open Claw is like the story of the last four or five months, and then be, be just below that.I would consider harness engineering, context engineering to be two related topics in agents and rag. And then there’s a long tail of Evergreen stuff like evals, observability, GPUs, uh, and uh, LM infra and just general, just in general. We also have other updates on like multimodality and, uh, generative media, let’s call it.Um, but I definitely, the, the first three that I mentioned are top of mind people. Yeah.[00:02:13] Jacob Effron: I think harness is particular like, so interesting. Um, you know, there was this tweet from Harrison Chase, the, the lane chain, CEO, that, that caught my eye recently where he said, you know, it finally feels like we have stability, uh, around the infrastructure for, uh, you know, around ai.And I think what. He basically was implying his like, look over the past two, three years as a company at the epicenter of AI infrastructure, it was a bit like playing whack-a-mole, right? You were constantly moving around with, however, the building patterns were evolving[00:02:36] swyx: for Harrison for sure. Right? Like he’s basically had to reinvent the company every year since he started Lang Chain.Right? It was Lang chain, Ang graph and LP agents and like, uh, I think he’s like one of the most nimble, adept sharp people about this. Yeah. Yeah.[00:02:49] Jacob Effron: Saying now, now is finally the time stability[00:02:51] swyx: this. Yeah.[00:02:52] Jacob Effron: Yeah. Um, do you buy that or what have you kind of make of that take?[00:02:56] swyx: I think that. It, it’s very expensive to say this Time is different sometimes, but when you’re just writing code, like it’s actually okay to just like try to make a call and I think it may not even matter if this call is right or not.Like I just don’t even care that much because you can be right on a thesis, but if you don’t, you don’t figure out how to monetize the thesis, then who cares if you said something first that said, um, it does feel like, for example. Uh, we went through a lot of different ways of passion packaging integrations up with, uh, with agents.And it feels like we’ve landed at skills, which is like the minimal viable format. Yeah. Which is just a markdown file, uh, with some scripts attached to it, and I don’t see how it can be more simple than that. And so there is some justification for. The stability around harnesses. I feel like there may be more adaptation with regards to maybe like the real time elements or subagents or memory or any of those like agent disciplines, let’s call it in, in agent engineering.Uh, but if, if the thesis is that, okay, you just want agents are LMS with tools in the loop with a file system, what they can do. Retrieval with, with skills and all these like standard tooling that now seems to be relatively consensus then probably. That makes sense. Um, I just think like there’s no point trying to stake your reputation on this thesis that we’re there because if it changes again, just change with it.It’s fine.[00:04:33] Jacob Effron: Yeah. It’s always, you know, I’ve always been struck by how that is. Much more challenging for infrastructure companies and application companies. Like obviously I think, yeah. You know, on the application side you’ve seen, you know, Brett Taylor from Sierra Max, from Lara. Like, they’re like, look, we build, you know, what’s ahead of the models and we’re willing to throw everything out every three months, you know, as the models get better and better.Exactly. Yeah. But the thing you at least have there is you have. Uh, you have an end customer, right? That’s like decently sticky. Um, you know, they will mostly stick, you know, they’ll, they’ll give you a shot at least of, of building these things. What I’ve always found more challenging, uh, at, at the kind of like, you know, reinvent yourself every three months of the infrastructure layer, it’s like, you know, developers are definitely a, a pickier audience maybe than an accounting firm or, uh, you know, a bank.Yeah. And so it’s definitely a, a, a more challenging position to be in to, to have to constantly reinvent yourself.[00:05:17] swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And, and like when they turn, it’s like. Very complete. Like, they’ll leave to like the, the hot new thing, uh, because there’s like no defensibility, I guess. Like e even, even if you are a database, like, uh, people can migrate workloads off databases.Like it’s, it’s a, it’s a known thing. Uh, so I think like basically what we’re talking about is the vertical versus horizontal, uh, debate in, in AI startups. And uh, the way I think about it also is just that like when you are. Um, Lara, when you are a bridge, like you are the outsource AI team, right? You, you are, your job is to apply whatever state ofthe art AI methods.[00:05:55] Jacob Effron: Yeah. Like this translation layer between model capabilities and your[00:05:57] swyx: own customers. Yeah. To, to the end customers and like, well, if they didn’t have you, they would’ve to hire in house and they’re not gonna hire in house so they have you. And like, I think that’s like a reasonable, like very robust to any whatever trends and, and discoveries that people make in, in the engineering layer.I do think like there is, um. It like sort of useful horizontal companies being built, but they’re all. Very much like, sort of like the reinventions of classic cloud in the AI era and the, the primary one being sandboxes. Yeah. Um, which like, it’s another form of compute guys, like, let’s not get too excited about it.But I mean, like the, the workloads are enormous.[00:06:38] Jacob Effron: Right.[00:06:38] swyx: Yeah.[00:06:39] Jacob Effron: It’s interesting, and I feel like as, as part of this, you know, the questions that folks are asking around infrastructure, there’s a lot around, you know, the extent to which companies should have their own AI teams and what they should be doing in-house.And, you know, uh, I think there’s questions around should people be training their own models? Should people be doing, you know, rl, uh, in-house based on the data they have? I feel like, you know, one has to evolve their takes on this every, every three months with paces. But where, where are you at on this today?[00:07:00] swyx: I think, well, I mean actually all models have gone up. Um, and obviously I’m involved in cognition and also cursors doing, doing, uh, a lot of own model training. And I think that that is some part of the, what I’ve been calling the agent lab playbook, where you start off with the state of the art models from, uh, from the big labs and you, uh, specialize for your domain.But once you have enough workload and enough high quality data from your users, then you can obviously train your own models and like save a lot on cost and latency and all that, all that good stuff. Um, you also get like a marketing bonus of like calling it some fancy name and putting out some research[00:07:38] Jacob Effron: from my seat.I can’t tell how much of it is like actual, you know, value that’s provided to the end user. And how much of it is that marketing bonus? Right. It seems some combination of the[00:07:45] swyx: I think it’s both.[00:07:46] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:07:46] swyx: Um, no, no. There, there actually is real value. Um, and you, you know that for a number of reasons. Like one, even when it’s not subsidized, people do choose it as like one of the top four or five.This is both composer two and, uh, suite 1.6 I one of the top five models. Like in a, in a fair market? In a free market, yeah. In a, in a, in a model switch. Or people do choose it and like, it’s not subsidized. Like, so that’s as good as it gets. Uh, but beyond that, like domain specific models, for example. For search with, with both, which both companies have absolutely makes, makes a ton of sense.Everyone says like, yeah, we should always, always do this. And honestly like, I think the infrastructure for that is becoming easier with, um, like thinking machines tinker thing as well as primary like, uh, lab stuff. Yeah, I mean like, this is one of those like reversal of the, the bitter lesson where you first bootstrap on the large models and the general purpose models to get big.And as you get very well-defined workloads that are just high quantity but not high variance, um, then you just distill down to a smaller model and run that on your own. Right. Which like totally makes sense.[00:08:50] Jacob Effron: What I’m less clear on is the kind of DIY RL use case, which I think is really mostly around, you know, improved, uh, quality for, for different things.Obviously there’s probably like more efficient ways to, you know, get a smaller model that’s that’s faster and cheaper. And it’ll be interesting to see whether. You know, obviously you had, you know, uh, two, three years ago this whole case of companies that were, you know, pre-training and claiming better outcomes in, in their domains than getting kind of cooked as each model iteration improved.You know, I wonder whether that’s a, a similar story plays out in the, uh, in, in the, our all space. Yeah, for the focus on, on on pure outcomes and quality, not the cost side, which clearly your own models for cost at scale makes a ton of sense.[00:09:28] swyx: I think there are this, there are two sides of the same coin.Like you basically always want to hold, uh, quality constant or trade off a little bit of quality for a drastic decreasing cost. And that’s true for everyone. Uh, one element I wanted to bring out, which is very much in favor of open models, is custom chips. So this would be cereus, but also talu. And then there’s a huge range of stuff in between.This has been a huge story this past year on just like everything non Nvidia is getting bid up, including like freaking MatX is working for, which is very, which is very rewarding for me, but I think one of those things where like, oh, like the suddenly, because the number of alternative. Hard, uh, hardware is increasing and the inference that you can get is insanely high.Like, um, we’re talking thousands of tokens per second instead of less than a hundred. So the trade off for qua quality doesn’t hold as much anymore because the speed is so high.[00:10:24] Jacob Effron: Have you seen a lot of companies go all in on the alternative chip?[00:10:26] swyx: So cognition has Yeah. On Cerebras, uh, and, and so has OpenAIUm, uh, and so no, I don’t think so beyond that, uh, and that, do you think that’s like a, that’s mostly, that’s foreshadowing of, that’s, yeah. I used to be kind of a skeptic in terms of like, okay, so what if I get my inference at a hundred to a hundred tokens per second sped up to 200 tokens per second. It’s only two X faster.It’s not that big a deal. Um, but when you, uh, I think every 10 x does unlock a different usage pattern. Um, and you, we have proof in Talas and, and some of the others. That you can actually, um, drastically imp improve inference speed and what happens from there? I don’t even really know, like it’s, it’s so hard to predict when entire applications just appear at once.Yeah. Uh, and it also isn’t that expensive, right? So like, um, this is one of those things where like, I, I think the, the investment cycle is gonna be multi-year. Um, and I. Would caution people to not dismiss it too, too quickly.[00:11:25] Jacob Effron: Yeah. I mean, one other like infra question I was curious to get your thoughts on is obviously it seems increasingly a lot of the cutting edge infra companies are building for agents as the buyers of their product or users of their product, right?[00:11:35] swyx: Ooh,[00:11:36] Jacob Effron: and[00:11:37] swyx: another huge theme. Yeah. Yeah.[00:11:38] Jacob Effron: And I’m trying to figure out like what. What, what do you have to do differently about selling into agents? Um, are they just the ultimate rational developers? Uh, or is there, you know,[00:11:46] swyx: no, absolutely not. Um, I think they are easily prompt, injected and, uh, very tuned towards like, basically com compounding existing winners.[00:11:57] Jacob Effron: Yeah,[00:11:57] swyx: so like if, like, congrats if you won the lottery for getting into the training data right before 2023, because now you’re like installed in there for the foreseeable future. But yeah. Uh, you know, one stat that Versal, uh, CTO Malta dropped at my conference was that there are now, uh, 60% of traffic to Elle’s, um, like app arch, like admin app architecture for like configuring versal applications, uh, is bought.It’s not, it’s not human. Uh, so like your primary customer is agents now. Um, and it’s mostly co like mostly coding agents, mostly people using CLI on CP or whatever. But yeah, I mean, I think. More. I, I think step one, if it doesn’t exist as an API that agents can use, it doesn’t exist. Right, right. Which I think is like, uh, it’s a good hygiene thing anyway, to, to make everything API available, but not as like an extra, um.Push on like products, people to not only work on the ui, um, you should probably work on the on SCLI stuff. Beyond that, I think honestly there is like, so I, I come from the sensibility of, I think everything that you are trying to do for agents experience now, which is the term that Matt Bowman and Nullify is trying to coin, is the same thing that you should have been doing for developer experience.That you should have had good docs, you should have had a consistent API, uh, that is. Mostly stateless. Um, you should have, I guess, discoverable or progressive disclosure or like search or like whatever. And so now that people have energy in like finding these customers to do that, that’s great. Um, do I believe in.Extending beyond that into something like a EO, um, for gaming The chatbots? Not necessarily, but obviously there’s gonna be huge advantages when people who figure out the short term wins. Yeah. And short term wins can compound.[00:13:43] Jacob Effron: Do you think these compounding advantages to like the, the pre-training data cutoff companies, like, you know, obviously over some period of time, I imagine that doesn’t persist.And so as you think about like. I dunno, three, four years from now what the, you know, selection criteria end up being. Do you think it still mirrors exactly what you were saying before? Like it’s exactly what you should have been doing all along to sell a good product to developers?[00:14:01] swyx: It could be, except that I think in three, four years we’ll probably have much better memory and personalization.So then general a EO or GEO doesn’t really matter as much. So I think whatever memory or personalization system we end up with will probably d determine what you end up choosing much more. Than, than what is currently the case, which is just frequency of mentions, let’s call it. Yeah,[00:14:26] Jacob Effron: yeah.[00:14:26] swyx: Uh, so you just spa quantity and I think that’s, I mean, that’s something I’m looking forward to.I do think, like, like, you know, I, I think that the fundamental exercise to work through for yourself is if you start a new, um, sort of. Uh, disruptor company. Now there’s a, there’s a big incumbent that everyone knows, like, like superb base. Super base is like, kind of like the Postgres, like database, uh, incumbent.If you wanna start like new superb base, how would you compete with them? And I don’t necessarily have the answer, but I, I, I do think like people, like resend like relatively new. I think they would start like 20, 23 and still there was, there was a recent survey where like, people. Checked what Claude recommends by default.If you just don’t prompt it with anything, just say, gimme an email provider and says, resent as in like 70, 70% of each cases. Like the fact that you can get in there with like such a relatively short existence, I think is, is encouraging.[00:15:14] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:15:14] swyx: I do think like. Um, you do want to do whatever it is to, to like to, to get in that Very short mentions this because, um, it’s not gonna be 20 of them, it’s gonna be like three.[00:15:26] Jacob Effron: No, definitely. It feels like, uh, you know, probably more, more consolidation than ever. Uh, or, or kind of like, you know, uh, a winner take most market than maybe the, the, the physics of go-to market in the past. Yeah. Might have, uh, enabled.[00:15:38] swyx: The other thing also is like, semantic association is gonna be very important, uh, in the sense that like, you want to do like the combo articles where you’re like, use my thing with for sale, with blah, blah.And like that all gets picked up in a, in a corpus. And so that’s. Probably one thing that you, you wanna do? Well, I don’t know what else. Uh, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s one of those things where like, I think I feel, I feel I’m behind, uh, I don’t know how you feel about this, but like,[00:16:04] Jacob Effron: I think AI is just everyone constantly feeling like they’re behind some, uh,[00:16:08] swyx: yeah.With,[00:16:09] Jacob Effron: I wanna meet the person that doesn’t feel behind,[00:16:11] swyx: but like with, with ax, right? Like, so, so like, my, my stance was that exactly what I said before, like everything that you, that you should do for agents is something that you should have done for humans anyway. Yeah. And so. To the extent that you’re just getting it more energy to, to do things for agents, great.But like, uh, it’s hard to articulate what new thing apart from just like more spam, um, that you should be doing. Anyway, that would be my take right now. Um, I I, I do think like there, there will be more turns at this. I think the personalization turn that is coming, um, will be big. And I don’t know what that looks like because like basically we’re kind of, we feel kind of tapped out on the memory side of things.[00:16:49] Jacob Effron: Yeah. I, I guess since we last chatted, you know, you, you took this role over at cognition, um, and you’ve obviously have a, have a front row seat to the AI coding space today. You know, I feel like coding in many ways. You know, people view it as this, like, I mean, besides being like the, the mother of all markets and this massive opportunity, I think it’s kinda a preview of like, what’s to come for many other spaces.Both. Yeah. You know, I feel like agents are most advanced in coding. I also feel like the, you know, competition between foundation models and application companies, you know, and, uh, mirrors what we may see in other spaces. And so maybe for our listeners, can you just lay out like what is the state of the AI coding wars today?[00:17:25] swyx: Um, it is massive, right? Like, uh, and I don’t think necessarily, last time we talked about this, we appreciated the size of what[00:17:32] Jacob Effron: No, I wish we did.[00:17:33] swyx: I state of AI coding wars today, um, both opening eye philanthropic have made it their p serials to competing coding. Um, and. Tropic is like 2.5 billion in a RR just from Cloud Code.The way they recognize a RR is. Opt for debate, uh, open ai. I don’t think the, a public number is known, but let’s call it 2 billion as well. And then cursor is like, rumored to be 2 billion, you know? And, and those, those are like the public numbers that are known? Yeah. Um, so like huge markets that have just been created in the past one year.Like, like anthropic, just like Claude Code just recently celebrated their one year anniversary, which is, yeah, pretty nice. Um, so, and then I think, like the other thing that I see is there’s, there’s some other people who are like, oh, here’s like the, the sort of relative penetration of, uh, Claude use cases, right?Like, and it’s like coding 50% and then legal, whatever. Health, uh, it’s like the, the remaining ones. And there was a very popular tweet that was like, okay, I’ll look at the, the empty space and all these other use cases. If you are a new founder today, you should be betting on the other stuff because on, on a sort of catch up Yeah.Theory and my. Consider my, my pushback is the same pushback that, uh, I had on app over Google, which is like, well, well why is this time different? Like, why, if it went from let’s say 10 to 50% in the past year, why can’t I keep going? Uh, and like getting that wrong is actually a very painful one because you could have just did, did the momentum bet.Instead of the mean reversion bed. So I, I, I think that that is the, the state of things now that people are very, very much into psychosis. Um, they’re are getting rewarded for spending more rather than spending less. And I think we’re not in that phase of efficiency. We’re in a phase of sort of like capability exploration.So I think people who are more crazy, who are more. Uh, creative, um, get rewarded comparatively. Yeah.[00:19:27] Jacob Effron: Well, it’s interesting. I mean, it feels like behind these like token maxing, leaderboards and whatnot is this, it’s like the first phase of this transition from a workforce perspective is you just gotta show your employer like, Hey, I, I use these tools.[00:19:37] swyx: Here’s my nu number of tokens I cost, and that’s it. They don’t care about the quality. Right. It is, uh, maybe distasteful to someone who cares about the craft and, and all that. Um, but directionally everyone just wants you to go up regardless. And so, um, there it is not very discerning. It’s, and it’s probably very sloppy, but I think it’s net fine because we’re still probably underusing ai just in generally.Yeah. Um, and so I think that’s like very interesting. Like we had on the podcast, uh, Ryan La Poplar from OBI, who spends a billion tokens a day. Yeah. Um, and that’s for those county home, it’s like something like 10,000 worth, $10,000 worth a day of API tokens. If they, they did market rates, um, and like most of us can’t afford that.Yeah. But like. And, and, and probably a lot of what he does is slop.[00:20:25] Jacob Effron: Right.[00:20:25] swyx: But like, he’s going to dis, he’s like, if there were a new capability, he would discover it first before you because he was, he was trying and you were not trying. Right. And like, you only do things that work like, well, good for you.But like the, the people who are going to discover the next hot thing are living at the edge.[00:20:42] Jacob Effron: Right and increase in living at the edge of just having the compute budget to like run these experiments. I mean, kind of similar to what living at the edge on the research side has always been. You know, it was constrained in many ways by the amount of compute you had to run these experiments.It feels similarly on the, almost on the builder or like actualizing these tools now.[00:20:56] swyx: Yeah. The other thing that’s, I mean, very obvious is philanthropic is kind of like the high price premium player. Um, that where, you know. Restricting limits or restricting model releases even is like the name of the game.Whereas Codex is like, come on in guys, use our SDK, use our login and we don’t care. We’re gonna reset limits. Whatever you do want to try to exploit the subsidies where you can get it. And definitely Codex is super subsidized right now. Gemini also very subsidized. Um, and. Comparatively, like, I think you should make, Hey, I guess while, while that’s going on, it’s not that bad to be a capabilities explorer on just the $200 a month plan from Cloud Code or from OpenAI.Um, and, uh, I I, I, my sense is that people aren’t even there yet.[00:21:41] Jacob Effron: How do you think this, like, market ultimately plays? I mean, it’s obviously such a big market that, you know, any slice of that market is interesting for, for anyone going after it. But I think what, what makes people so interesting in the coding market particularly is it feels like it’s kind of this.Foreshadowing of what will happen in other, you know, any other kind of application market that the foundation models eventually turn to and are all their models against and gather data around. And so how do you think, you know, like does there end up being room for lots of different kinds of players or like, what do you think the end state of this market is and is that, do you think that’s applicable to other markets?[00:22:10] swyx: I feel like there will be, I mean. Status quo is probably the most likely outcome, which is there are two big players and there’s a small range of longer tail people that, um, fit other use cases that the, the two big players don’t. That feels right to me. I think that, um, for it to, for the market structure to, to significantly change there would be, there needs to be significant change in like the economics or like the, the brand building or like the, the, the, the value propositions of the, of the companies involved and I.Haven’t seen any in the last six months that, that have really changed the stories materially. So I feel like they would just keep going until something, something else happens. Something else happens, meaning like Microsoft wakes up and like goes like. Guys, we have GitHub, we have, uh, you know, we, we, we’ll, we’ll do something much bigger here than other, other than just copilot.Um, and, uh, that would be a big change. Um, MSL has put out a model now, and I was in a breakfast with, uh, Alex Wang, where they were like, yeah, like, we, we really, really want to go after the coding use case. We haven’t done anything yet, but like, don’t underestimate them. Right. Um, and, and similarly for the Chinese labs.Um, I think they’re trying to go after it. Like ZAI is doing stuff. GLM uh, ZI and GLM is same thing. Um, uh, and, and so it’s, so like everyone’s trying to get a piece of that pie. I, I feel like the, the status quo has been pretty stable for the past, like almost a year I’ll say.[00:23:39] Jacob Effron: Yeah. And is the room for the, not like, you know, for, for the application companies more on like the enterprise side or like where do the, where do the, like what surface area do the model companies leave for application companies?[00:23:50] swyx: Yeah, that’s a good one. Um. It’s very much evolving. Um, it, I, I, I will say because opening I did not have this, the, this level of attention on coding. Yeah. Uh, a year ago. We just don’t have that much history. Right. Um, and it seems like, for example, so the big push at Open I now is the Super app. Um, is that a consumer thing?Is that like a products like. Portfolio rationalization thing, how much is that gonna take away attention from coding at the time when they actually do want to put more coding? I think it’s, it’s very unclear. So I do think like there’s, there’s all these, like in both big labs, there’s. Uh, sorry. Both of the, and, and drop and, and deep minus and XAI are are separate cases.Um, they are trying to see the other time expansion areas. So cloud code for finance. Yeah. Um, uh, cloud cowork, all those, all those things. Whereas I think cursor and cognition are like comparatively just focused on coding and so I, I do think they leave space and I do think for the other verticals that also means the same thing.Right. That, uh, that they’re not gonna be that. Um, intensely focused on, on, on that domain. Except for, I, I think I would mark out finance and healthcare as like the next ones, um, that they’re clearly going after. Uh, I, I would say comparatively, healthcare seems more thorny. There, there, there’ve been some announcements about it, but like, I would respect the, the finance work a lot more just because like the, the path to money is a lot clearer.[00:25:12] Jacob Effron: Yeah, no, I mean, obviously like, I, I think, you know, maybe similar to, to the space that’s being left in these other domains, you know, there’s obviously. Uh, a lot that’s required to actually implement these tools in enterprises, uh, versus, you know, maybe just giving them, uh, giving model access to, to folks outta the box.[00:25:27] swyx: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So the, the agent lab thing is like, we’ll do the last mile for you. Whereas I think the model labs tend to just trust the model and, and be minimalist about it. Both of them work.[00:25:38] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:25:38] swyx: I, I don’t, I don’t necessarily think one, uh, beats the other, uh, for every, for every use case. Um, all I, all I do know is that it does seem like.Uh, the large enterprises do want a dedicated partner that isn’t just the model labs, which is kind of interesting.[00:25:55] Jacob Effron: We, we’ve been in this phase of, of pure capability exploration. And so I think nothing has been, you know, better for the large labs, right? I mean, they’re always gonna be, uh, uh, the frontier of, of capability exploration.And so I think have a very good relationship with a lot of these enterprises. But ultimately over time, like. The, uh, the incentive structure of these labs is always gonna be maximal, you know, token consumption for, uh, for the end customers they work with. And there’s just, I think, so few companies that have actually gotten to massive scale.Maybe coding again is the most interesting. So it’s the first space that really is just completely gone, you know? Yeah. You must love it every day. Like absolutely insane. And. I think it[00:26:32] swyx: gets even. Okay. I mean, like, I think we, we say good things about crystal cognition, but the sheer liftoff of like both end UPIC and open ai.‘cause they, they, they have independent valuations. I mean, let’s throw an XEI in there because it’s now I ping at 1.2 trillion. That number is just mind boggling. Like I, I feel like in normal investing or normal startups, there’s kind of like a ceiling market cap or valuation. Totally. That, that like you, you reach and you go like, all right, let’s, it’s gonna be chiller from now on.And these guys are not slow down. No.[00:27:02] Jacob Effron: Well, I also think the dynamic is fascinating about some of these later stage companies is, is, you know, in the past, I feel like in, in venture world, if you got to a certain level of scale, the question around you was really more a valuation question. And this is like why there was different phase, like, you know, types of venture people did and like the late stage growth people were just incredible at like, you know, a little bit of what’s the ultimate market opportunity of this company, but also what’s the right way to, to value it.Like we know it’s, it’s in some bands of an outcome that is like. Sure there’s some variance to it, but it’s like relatively understood what that bands is and then maybe you get over time surprised to the upside. Whereas any kind of like later, even the labs themselves, any later stage company, the bands of which that company might be worth right now, even in a year or two years are so massive because of how fast the ecosystem changes that it’s like.Even for later stage companies, every three months could be an existential level event to the upside to the downside. Yeah. Um, and I think that, like, you are obviously seeing it in the, in the positive with code, which, you know, if you think about a company like philanthropic, you know, that. For a while, it was like unclear if they were going to have access to enough capital, um, to really stay in the, in the race, right?And then coding hit at the exact right time. They had the perfect model for it. They executed brilliantly. Um, and you know, now are, are, you know, uh, you know, one of the most valuable companies in the world.[00:28:13] swyx: Uh, at the same time, I, I don’t find, I, I have zero sympathy for opening eye because they’re crushing it and they’re all rich.You know, this is like a high class champagne problem to have to, uh, to be number two at coding or whatever. Like, who cares? Like, you’re, you’re doing great.[00:28:27] Jacob Effron: Yeah. It’s funny though. I can’t even, I mean, you would be closer to this, uh, you know, even that you’re in the AI coding space, but it’s like a lot of people I talk to think Codex is just as good, if not better than Claude Code.Right. I think one thing that I’ve been really surprised by, and maybe, maybe Cloud Code is a better product in some ways, I’m curious your thoughts is just in consumer AI with chat GBT. You saw this big first mover advantage, right? Where admittedly today, like, I don’t know, Claude Gemini. Great products.Not sure, not abundantly clear chat GBTs any better, but like. People stick with chat, GBT, it’s the first thing to introduce them.[00:28:56] swyx: They stay, but they’re not growing anymore. I don’t know if you’ve seen[00:28:59] Jacob Effron: Right. But that to me is more of like a, a, a product problem than it is. They’re not like, it’s not like they’ve like lost share to someone else.My understanding is the overall problem with consumer AI today is much more of a how do you take this tool and, you know, for, for folks like us, like knowledge workers, it’s like this incredible magic tool, but it’s not necessarily a daily active use tool for a lot of people around the world today. And what are the like products?It’s, it’s kind of a category wide problem. Like in coding, for example, like. The entire space has gone parabolic. There may be some relative growth in, uh, in other consumer AI players, but it’s not like consumer AI as a category is like going parabolic and they’re not capturing most of that thing. I think it’s actually the larger problem is much more, hey, the category has kind of hit a bit of a plateau of people haven’t figured out how to bring, you know, tons more users on board.Yeah, yeah. Or increase the frequency of those users. And so it seems more of a category wide problem than it is, you know, a massive market share of change. I was gonna draw the comparison to, to the coding space where Claude Co is the first product, obviously, to introduce people to this magical experience.You know, by all accounts, codex is, is pretty damn close to as good, if not better. Um, but like still that first product, you, you would’ve thought that would not be a super sticky, uh, you know, product surface area. And it actually has, it turns out, I, it feels like the first lab to introduce you and experience really does, uh, keep a lot of, uh, a lot of the focus.[00:30:12] swyx: I, I think. M maybe it’s like still, still early days. You know, Chad, BT is like three plus years old and Yeah. Cloud code is only one. Just turned a year. Yeah. So give it time, you know? Yeah. Like, yeah. I mean, definitely sometimes a lot of people have switched from to Codex. Maybe that will keep going. I, it’s like really hard to tell.Uh, yeah. I, I, I do, I do think that. Because we are in this like, high volatility, high temperature phase. Um, the loyalty and stickiness to first movers and category creators, I don’t think is as high as it might be in some other, uh, areas in our careers that we’ve looked at.[00:30:47] Jacob Effron: Yeah. Though, I mean, I’ve been surprised by the cloud code thing.I, I would’ve thought that, like, in many ways I always worried about the[00:30:52] swyx: enterprise. You think you would’ve been gone by now?[00:30:53] Jacob Effron: Not gone. But I would’ve, I I always worried that the, that the consumer business of these companies would be quite sticky. And then the enterprise API business. Uh, was actually like, you know, in some ways like your least loyal buyers, like they would, they would move to,[00:31:05] swyx: right, right.But, but they worked out that it wasn’t the enterprise API it was enterprise product.[00:31:09] Jacob Effron: Totally. And maybe that was the, that was the secret that like, but the amount of lock-in or just default behavior that has happened in that space, uh, is, is more than I might’ve imagined with two products that by all accounts are pretty damn similar.Yeah.[00:31:22] swyx: No fight there. Uh, I will say I do think that Codex is still in like a catch up. Like in terms of personal experience. Um, the only thing I like out of, out of Codex is the, is like Spark and like yeah. Uh, the, I, I feel like the skills integration is a little bit better. I feel like, uh, the, the speed is a bit better.Maybe ‘cause it’s in, is written in rust or whatever. Um, very minor things that you like. Almost like telling yourself rather than like objectively assessing between two, two of them. I, I, I do think, like vibes wise, I think that’s going on. Um, the, the, you know, I, I feel like the, the missing questions, uh, in, in this whole debate is like, why is this so concentrated in only two names, right?Yeah. Like, um, how, where, like, where is the Gemini? You know, presence, where’s the Xai presence? Um, and like they are trying, it’s just they haven’t made that much progress yet.[00:32:12] Jacob Effron: But what the, what the Claude Co moment does show, and it actually in some ways makes you a little more bullish on the potential for someone else to catch up because it does feel like if you’re the first person to introduce some magical net new product experience, that that actually might be stickier than one might have imagined.[00:32:27] swyx: Right, right, right. Okay. Yeah.[00:32:28] Jacob Effron: And so it’s, everyone can believe they have shot[00:32:29] swyx: that. What do you think that new product experience might be like? I, I, it’s, it’s like, and this is a failure of imagination on my part. Like, I always wonder, like, people always say this like, well, the, the thing that will save us is like being first to the next new thing.Like what is it?[00:32:41] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:32:42] swyx: It’s like,[00:32:45] Jacob Effron: I dunno, something around like, uh, consumer agent, computer use, like hybrid. I think, obviously, I think we’re like scratching the surface on the consumer side.[00:32:53] swyx: So my, my current theory is like the. Open claw is like a vision of things to come.[00:32:58] Jacob Effron: Totally.[00:32:58] swyx: Um, and uh, it’s good that O open I has like the association with open claw, but by no means do they have the rights to win it.The general thesis that I have been pursuing now is that the year the same way that 2025 was the year of coding agents, 2026 is coding agents breaking containment to do everything else. Um, and so coding agents continue to still win, but because they generate software and software eats the world, so like, it’s kind of like the trans.Associated property of like software, eat the world, coding agents, eat software, therefore coding agents eat the world. Um, which is like an interesting,[00:33:30] Jacob Effron: yeah, and breaking containment always an easier phase phrase in the consumer context than the enterprise one. You’ve seen people run these really cool, uh, experiments in their own personal lives.I think like,[00:33:37] swyx: yes.[00:33:38] Jacob Effron: Figuring out, you know, how you, obviously everyone’s focused, you know, on the enterprise side now around how you create these experiences. I feel like the vibes, you know, people love to have these narratives of like, everything is completely shifted. It’s like I actually, you know, open AI.Organizationally, uh, you know, volatility aside is, you know, great products, great team, great models like everyone else in the world is incentivized for there to be. Two, three more. Everyone would love more like great model companies. And so I feel like the, the natural forces of the world revolt when any one company, you know, is too much the star of the show, right?There’s so many people in the ecosystem that are incentivized for that not to happen. And so I think I’d be shocked if we don’t have. Uh, uh, reversion of vibes, not maybe completely the other way, but at least a little bit more equal at some point over the next six, 12 months.[00:34:24] swyx: I, I think there’s just a kind of different stages when, when you talk about the world, one wanting more model companies, I talked think about like the neo labs.[00:34:30] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:34:31] swyx: And I mean, I don’t know, is it fair to say none of them have really broken through in the past year?[00:34:35] Jacob Effron: I think that’s totally fair,[00:34:37] swyx: which is rough. Um, and well, how are we gonna, how are we gonna grow that diversity in, in, in choice, like. Um, that’s, this is it.[00:34:46] Jacob Effron: Yeah. It’ll be really interesting to see what, what, what ends up happening with that.And you’ve seen, you know, folks like Nvidia, you know, very incentivized to make sure there’s, there’s a broader platform of, of other model providers.[00:34:57] swyx: I think, uh, I don’t know people say this, but I, I, I don’t think they try it hard. Nvidia tries harder to build neo clouds[00:35:05] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:35:06] swyx: Than neo labs.[00:35:07] Jacob Effron: Well, they try pretty damn hard to build neo Cloud, so[00:35:09] swyx: that’s,[00:35:09] Jacob Effron: yeah.[00:35:10] swyx: But like, you know, let’s call it like the, the core weaves of the world, much happier place in the, you know, than any neo lab built on top of them.[00:35:18] Jacob Effron: Yeah. That one might argue it’s, it’s easier to, to enable a neo cloud to be successful than it is. Uh, you can’t will a neo lab into existence the same way you, soNvidia[00:35:25] swyx: has more direct control over it.Uh, for sure.[00:35:27] Jacob Effron: What else is kind of catching your eye today on the startup side? I mean, you worry, there’s obviously this whole narrative of like, you know, the foundation models, you know, they announced a product and every stock goes down 15%. Like[00:35:36] swyx: Yeah.[00:35:37] Jacob Effron: Do you, do you worry about the foundation models just kind of eating into to a bunch of these startup categories?[00:35:43] swyx: Not really. I, I think actually like. As, uh, there’s, there’s, okay, there’s, there’s, there’s the, there’s the point of view of like being an investor in startups, and there’s a point of view of like, do you wanna start something? And I think honestly, like the, the downside for all these is so. Minimal in, in a sense of like, the worst you do is you just get hired into one of these labs anyway.So I, I think the, the market for people who just do things and try things and try to execute in like a competent way, even if like it doesn’t work out commercially, even if it just wasn’t that great anyway. Like, but like that’s your job interview to go into, into one of these things anyway, so, um, I don’t feel that.From a, from a very, very small startup perspective, mid-size startups. Yes. Uh, I will say there’s been a lot of dead, um, LM Infra, a lot of LM infra consolidation like the, the, uh, lang fuses of the world getting absorbed into, into click house. And I, I think. Like people have maybe worked out the domain specific playbook, uh, and like, I think that’s okay.Um, and, and yeah, I’m not that, not that worried about, uh, okay. So, um, I, I would say I’d be more worried about traditional SaaS, like low NPSS. This is the whole AI versus SaaS debate that has, that’s been going on. Uh, and, and like literally I’m going through that exact thing in my company where, so I like kind of.Thinking through this on a very visceral, visceral level, right? On one hand you have the people who say you vibe coders don’t appreciate the amount of work that goes into A-A-C-R-M and like, yeah, you think you can rip out Salesforce? So did the 30 entrepreneurs before you, right? Like, like, you know, you classically underestimate the things that you don’t.Deeply, no. And, and, and target audience is not you. Uh, at the same time, like we have never been able to build software so easily and customize software so easily and like Yeah, you’re not gonna use 90% of the things in Salesforce. So like, yeah. What’s the typical, so what have you, what[00:37:33] Jacob Effron: have you done internally?[00:37:34] swyx: So we have there the main SaaS that we do for event management and sponsor management. That’s, and we paid 200 KA year for that. Not, not huge, but like chunky for, for, for my, my scale. Um, and like, yeah, I could probably spend 2000 and, and build like a custom version of that. Um, the, the, the trick has been dealing with my, the rest of my team and getting them on board.Yeah. ‘cause I’m the most ethical person on my team, but like, I can’t make that decision myself. And I think in the same way I’ve been telling with other CEOs team leaders as well, it’s like, well you can be super cloud pilled. You can be super LM psychosis and that you think that’s okay, but you like you have to bring your team with you.And I think like there, the sort of widening disparity in LM psychosis in companies is causing real s real riffs because. And on one hand, on one hand, the people who are less AI native are not getting with the picture. They’re not, they’re actually like behind, they’re actually not waking up to the fact that like you, everything you think is necessary is not actually that necessary.And in fact, exactly would be better of you if you just like held your nose and went in and when came out the other side. Yeah, only talking to agents in natural language and like your life would actually be better and you just, you’re just like close-minded. There’s that perspective. The other perspective is, oh, you vibe coder.You, you did this in a weekend and you got the 80% solution and now the rest of your employees. Have to pick up the rest of your s**t, right, that you, that you thought you were, you were such hot, amazing, uh, uh, at, but like, actually you didn’t figure it out. And like, actually LMS are still useless at this and blah, blah, blah.So like, I think there’s this huge debate going on in every company right now. Um, and like, um, you know, I have a small microcosm of it, but like, yeah, it, it’s making me hesitate to, to pull the trigger. But like I will at some point, it’s like maybe I’ve put it off for one year, but not like five. Yeah, but like, so, so like SaaS is definitely getting squeezed.Um, it does make me wonder, like, I, I do think that there’s an opportunity for a more AI native, um, system of record thing that is not just Postgres. Um, or not just MongoDB, although both are very good. Maybe it’s like a convex or like people Yeah. Bring up convex a lot. I don’t know, like, like, I, I just feel like the sort of quote unquote firebase of, of AI apps isn’t really a thing yet.Um, beyond what we have. Uh, which, which is fine. It’s, it’s, it’s just. We could probably start in a more sort of rapid iteration cycle first before scaling up to like a Postgres or MongoDB, which are more sort of old tech. I was at a dinner with, uh, Mike Krieger, the CPO of en philanthropic, and, and he, we were just kind of going around the room going like, what are people most worried about?Yeah. And, uh, for me, uh, I, instead of security, I brought up biosafety. Yeah,[00:40:21] Jacob Effron: classic.[00:40:22] swyx: Um, actually, like I said, it was. Cliche and classic, and the rest of the table were, were like, what do you mean? Someone sitting at home can manufacture a virus that wipes out half of humanity,[00:40:32] Jacob Effron: almost like the OG Jeffrey Hinton.Like, this is why you should be scared.[00:40:35] swyx: I’m like, yeah, like the read the, you know, risk reports. Like this is like the thing. Um, I think, and Mike was just sitting there knowing he was sitting on Mythos and going like, actually it’s security. Um, and I think like, um, I think the, there’s, there’s, part of it is.A very good marketing. Like too good. Yeah, like I would actually advise and topic to tune down the marketing because also it’s, it is just a very good model and you don’t have to make so many marketing claims around it. At the same time, it is not really a private model. If you give it to 40 companies.Each of whom have like 10,000 employees or whatever. Right. It’s not, it’s not private, it’s, it’s like there’s bad actors in there.[00:41:18] Jacob Effron: Yeah. Hopefully, hopefully not as, uh, as bad as releasing it widely, but, uh, no, I mean, it’s an interesting. You know, it’s an interesting case study for how all, I mean, many model releases might, I mean, you know, this might be the first model release that looks like the rest of ‘em from from now on, right?[00:41:31] swyx: It, it, so it’s, it’s the, there’s an overall product strategy, uh, for anthropic of like bundle, uh, you know, restrict access bundle, uh, product with model maybe.Whereas, uh, OpenAI has definitely been a lot more sort of. Philosophically aligned on like, we will just enable access everywhere and we don’t know what you, what will come out of it. Right.[00:41:51] Jacob Effron: Right. Though, I mean, this current moment, uh, obviously the cynical take is also just ties to the amount of compute that both companies[00:41:56] swyx: Yeah.Right, right, right. Yeah, I think, I think that’s true. I I do think like the, the, this is the, the, the scale, the dawn of like larger than 10 trillion parameter models is very interesting. I don’t think it, I think it’s a temporary phenomenon because we have much larger compute clusters coming online for everyone over the next like three, five years.It’s, and this is like already written in, in the cards.[00:42:18] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:42:19] swyx: So to the extent that like, you know, will we have rationing of models, uh, above 10 trillion, uh, in like two years? I don’t think so. I think everyone will have no, we’ll just[00:42:29] Jacob Effron: have rationing of the next phase.[00:42:30] swyx: Right. Right. But like, that’s as it should be almost like, um.My, my classic example, which I, this is just me theorizing, not anything confirmed by Google. When Google announced Gemini, they actually announced three sizes, which was Flash Pro Ultra. They never released Ultra. They only have Pro and Flash. Um, so my theory is they have ultra sitting in a basement and they just could distilling from it for, for flashing pro.Um, which like, yeah, I mean, I, I actually think that’s. As it should be for any lab that they, that they do that.[00:43:02] Jacob Effron: Yeah. Just because those are the models that people actually wanna end up using. And it’s just like cost prohibit.[00:43:06] swyx: It is more, yeah, it’s cost. Yeah. It’s, it’s not the want, it’s just, just, just the cost.Um, I do think, like, uh, it is interesting that, uh, for a while I was, I was considering the theory that models capped out at two, 2 trillion, and I think that’s proving to be wrong. And well then if I’m wrong, how wrong? How wrong am I? Do we do 200 trillion? Do we do two quarter trillion, whatever? Um, and I don’t think we have the straight answer to that, but like, uh, it’s interesting that we are continuing to scale number of pers when everyone kind of assu like can see that we’re not going to get like the next thousand or 1 million x from this paradigm.So like the others, like the alias of the world are working on other. Um, model architecture improvements. We need a different scaling law, I guess, because like, we’re, I, I feel like people already already feel like we’re tapped out on this. Like the, the end, the end state of this is we turn most of the world into data centers and like, I don’t know.I don’t know if we want that.[00:44:08] Jacob Effron: Yeah, I mean, uh, if the, if, if, if the return of intelligence are there, maybe, uh, maybe not so bad.[00:44:13] swyx: I, I, I think there, there’s just a sheer amount of like, like un scalability that like is wrangling people’s sensibilities right now. Um, especially in terms of like context lengths.Um, my classic quote is that context length is like the slowest scaling factor in, in lms.[00:44:30] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:44:30] swyx: Um, we, like, we took maybe. Three years to go from like 4,000 context length to a million and that’s about it. Yeah. Like Gemini has had a million token context length for two years now. Um, and no one’s using it.Like, so like yeah, it’s memory. Memory is probably gonna be the, the biggest limiting constraint on all these things.[00:44:50] Jacob Effron: Yeah. Certainly seems that way. I guess I’m curious over the last year since you recorded last, like what’s one thing you’ve changed your mind on?[00:44:57] swyx: I feel like I was kind of bearish on open models like last year.Um, in a sense of, like, I, I had just done the podcast with an Al[00:45:07] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:45:08] swyx: Of Braintrust where he, and he, I mean, you know, he has a good cross section of all the top AI companies and he says market share of open source is 5% and going down. Um, I think that’s changed. I think it’s going up. Um, and even if,[00:45:22] Jacob Effron: even though the capability gap does seem to be increasing.Spending on the[00:45:26] swyx: time. It’s hard to tell. Yeah, it’s, it’s really hard to tell. ‘cause like, okay, for, for listeners, capability gap increasing is like on public benchmarks. And let’s say you’re comparing mythos versus like, I don’t know, G-T-O-S-S or like GLM 5.1. And, um, it’s, it is really hard to tell. ‘cause even if they were closing, you will also not believe that they were closing that much because it’s very easy to gain the benchmarks.Yeah. So you just don’t really, really know. Um, all you know is like. Uh, there’s somewhat objective open router stats on like what people choose in a free market. And people do choose some of these open models in significant volume, except that a lot of them are heavily discounted. So you need to kind of like price adjust, uh, these things.So even if, even if that were true, which I, I’m not sure, like I, I, I feel like the numbers just up now instead of down. Uh, I think the. Separation between what the top tier agent labs are doing versus the average startup in ai or the average GPT wrapper is significant enough that you should not worry about the, the, the sort of mean industry number.And you should, you should cohort things into like, here’s the median here, here’s like the bottom 80% and here’s the top 20%. And top 20% acts very differently than the pome percent. And so top 20% is, which is what I all I care about, um, is. Definitely going towards more open models. Um, the fireworks and the togethers are crushing.Um, and, uh, and so will all the fine tuners, right? So like, um, I think maybe last time we even said things like, fine tuning is a service doesn’t work. Well, now it’s gonna work. It’s, it’s a derivative of the open market, uh, open models market.[00:47:01] Jacob Effron: Well, and also in the workload scaling to the point where people care about cost and speed, you know, more and more.[00:47:06] swyx: Yeah.[00:47:06] Jacob Effron: And that like the, you know, moving from just pure use case discovery of like, what can these models do to, okay, we know what they’re gonna do at scale now let’s do ‘em cheaper and faster.[00:47:14] swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Um, so, so like, uh, that change I, I think, is probably the most significant in, in my mind. And like, I, I always like to do the mental math of like, uh, this is what.Think about, uh, scheduling a learning rate, like when you’ve been wrong once. Yeah. What else were you wrong on? Um, and I, I’m kind of working through it. I, I, to me, the, the, the other thing was the coding one, um, which obviously I, I have now come full 360 on, but I think like. People are not appreciating dark factories enough, which I don’t know if you’ve discussed in the pod yet.[00:47:44] Jacob Effron: No.[00:47:45] swyx: Um, uh, and so this is a kind of a strong DM slash Simon Willis term. Uh, the, the general idea is, okay, there’s different levels of AI coding psychosis. You can have, um, the, the very first level, which I, I, by the way I encountered first in cognition five months ago was zero. Uh, human written code. Yeah.Right. Which like, seems like a reasonable thing now was less reasonable five months ago. The next frontier that sounds as crazy today as it as, as zero coding was in in the past is zero Human review.[00:48:17] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:48:18] swyx: Like, just, just check it in without even. Reviewing it, and very few people are doing that, but opening Eyes is, is exploring this and I feel like it’s, it’s definitely the only scalable way to do this.Uh, which it just means like you have to just kind of like flip the S-S-D-L-C or change large amounts of what, what you normally do. Um. Which is probably things you should have done anyway. More testing, more, you know, more automated verification or whatever. But like that is a frontier at which, like when you have unlocked that in your companies, um, you are just gonna produce much more quantity of software than than you’ve ever had.Uh, and it’s gonna be like so much, so disposable, so cheap that you can probably innovate in quality a lot as well. Like that that quantity helps you get to quality.[00:49:00] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:49:01] swyx: Which I think people are very uncomfortable with. ‘cause like people associate more quantity with slop.[00:49:07] Jacob Effron: Right. No, it’s back to exactly the discussion we’re having on like the reaction to these token maxing scoreboards and the, and the idea that like, today, maybe that’s not the most, uh, the, the, the, the best sign of, of, of productivity in efficiency, but going forward[00:49:18] swyx: yeah, you, but you still get rewarded for it.So they’re like, f**k it, whatever. But like, uh, I, I, I think like the, the, the people who are, who are doing well, who do well, who do most well in 2026, are not the cynics who go like, oh, that’s just slop. I’m not gonna participate in that. They’re like, okay, like this is happening with, with or without me. Bend this the right way.[00:49:36] Jacob Effron: Yeah, no, I love that. Um, I mean, I think for, for me, like any kind of related thing on, on the open source model side is for so long, I really didn’t think it made any sense to do any sort of RL post-training, pre-training, anything you could do to like improve kind of overall quality. Certainly for like latency and cost, it always made sense to me.But for overall quality, like God, you just get that for free in the models like three, six months later. I, I think what I’m starting to change my tune on a little bit is. You know, hearing all these app companies talk about, like, you know, we build stuff and then we throw it out three months later, as, as like the models improve.You’re like, okay, well then what you’re doing for capability improvement is just another version of that, right? Like, I still don’t think that like your RL or like post train is gonna make you have a better model for like. Years and years to come. But maybe I, I think you still have to be pretty rigorous on like, is that the single best thing you can do to solve a customer problem?And like, you know, oftentimes, like, it’s literally just like now, like add more data and like feed more data even via connectors to these models or like, I don’t know, do some clever engineering on the back end or whatever it is. But at the single best thing you can do for that three month time period to improve your customer’s outcomes is, you know, post-training in some way that like really improves the output of model even if you throw it out three months later because the general models get up there.It still might have been worth doing. And so I think I’m like more open to[00:50:45] swyx: you, you throw out the results, but you don’t throw out the raw data.[00:50:47] Jacob Effron: Totally.[00:50:48] swyx: And like, so like[00:50:48] Jacob Effron: Right. Then you just run it again. And so basically there’s some, obviously at the level of cost of like $10 million, maybe that’s too much, but there’s some level of cost where[00:50:55] swyx: No,[00:50:55] Jacob Effron: it’s the, it’s[00:50:56] swyx: not even 10 million,[00:50:56] Jacob Effron: right?No, of course it’s not. Uh, you know,[00:50:58] swyx: yeah.[00:50:58] Jacob Effron: There’s obviously some level of investment, uh, at which it’s the equivalent of just like staffing four engineers to go build something for three months.[00:51:04] swyx: Yeah. Uh, so the other thing I really, uh, for, for listeners, I’m just gonna leave some, some droplets of info. Uh, look into like the, the long trajectory, the synthetic rubrics work that people are doing is very important, uh, including, uh, something that’s called Doctor GRPO.I’ll just, I’ll just leave those key search terms in there. Um, I, I think it, what it means is that RL is going much more multi turn than. People think, and that means that you can customize the models in way more specific dimensions than traditional, let’s call it SFT, or uh, uh, you know, like a, a sort of shallow rl, um, that was done in a year ago.Um, so like hundreds of turns.[00:51:44] Jacob Effron: Yeah.[00:51:45] swyx: Uh, and, and, and I think that that leads you down a path of like complete domain specificity.[00:51:50] Jacob Effron: What else? Like are you, you know, uh, of these like unanswered questions in AI today? Are you like looking for, you know, in the next year? Are you, you, uh, you know, paying close attention to,[00:51:58] swyx: I, I have a few thesis for like, what?Is the sort of next frontier. Uh, one is memory, which memory and personalization we talked about. The other is really, uh, world models, which we’ve done a small little series on from Fefe Lee. Yeah, of course. To, uh, even Moon Lake. Um, and, uh, general intuition and there’s a lot of debate as to like. The relative importance of this.I think a lot of it, it manifests as like 3D static walls that you kind of inhabit for a little bit and you walk around and they’re like, cool, but like, how does this help me with my B2B SaaS? Right. And[00:52:29] Jacob Effron: it’s like all the hype now is robotics, right?[00:52:31] swyx: Yeah. Um, and there’s a, obviously a correlation between, uh, role models and embodied.Uh, vision and experiences, which leads to robotics. Uh, but I think role models is very interesting in just in improving intelligence itself. Um, from the next, from the next token prediction paradigm. Um, and so I think people are kind of testing their edges around that. One of our top articles this year so far has been on adversarial award models.Um. I, I do think, like, uh, if you don’t do anything else, just read FE’S essay on spatial intelligence on why, um, LMS don’t need, don’t have it. And she is, she may, she may not have the solution yet, but she has the right problems statement. Yeah. And so everyone else is trying to solve that problem statement in their own way.Um. And let’s see who wins. But like, I, I don’t think it does you any favor to equate role models to robotics or role models to gaming or some kind of like, uh, or like the current manifestations because what is at stake is a much more important. Conception of intelligence than just answering questions.It is, does, does, does, does the AI understand what a table is? Like, what, what matter is, what physics is? It is almost like for, for those who are movie fans, it’s like Google Hunting where, um, Matt Damon like knows everything because he read it in a book, but he’s never lived. Great,[00:53:54] Jacob Effron: great scene with[00:53:55] swyx: Robin Williams.With Robin Williams and I, I look at that scene and I go like, that’s exactly the, the, the difference between like a very intelligent LLM who knows everything but hasn’t experienced anything.[00:54:04] Jacob Effron: Wow. That’s an awesome note to end on. Uh, that’s a, have you used that before? That’s great.[00:54:08] swyx: Yeah. So, so one thing I’ve done with Lean Space is I moved to like, uh, adding daily writeups.Yeah. And so one, one of the times I was doing this daily writeup, I wrote that.[00:54:16] Jacob Effron: That’s a great[00:54:17] swyx: one. I love[00:54:17] Jacob Effron: that. Um, well, so it’s been a ton of fun. Thanks so much[00:54:19] swyx: for, for Coming Man.[00:54:21] Jacob Effron: I’m Jacob Effron and this has been Unsupervised Learning. A podcast where I get to talk to the smartest people in AI and ask them tons of questions about what’s happening with models and what it means for businesses in the world.As I hope is clear, I have a ton of fun doing this. It’s a nights and weekends project in addition to my day job as an investor at RedPoint, but our ability to get these incredible guests on really comes from folks like you subscribing to the podcast, sharing it with friends. It’s really what ultimately makes this whole thing work.And so please consider doing that. And thank you so much for your support and listening. We’ll see you next episode. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Shopify’s AI Phase Transition: 2026 Usage Explosion, Unlimited Opus-4.6 Token Budget, Tangle, Tangent, SimGym — with Mikhail Parakhin, Shopify CTO 22.04.2026 1h 12min

  Early bird discounts for the San Francisco World’s Fair, the biggest AIE gathering of the year, end today - prices will go up by ~$500 tonight so do please lock in ASAP!From near-universal AI tool adoption inside Shopify to internal systems for ML experimentation, auto-research, customer simulation, and ultra-low-latency search, Mikhail Parakhin joins us for a deep dive into what it actually looks like when a 20-year-old, $200B software company goes all-in on AI. We cover why Shopify has become much more vocal about its internal stack, what changed after the December model-quality inflection, and why the real bottleneck in AI coding is no longer generation, but review, CI/CD, and deployment stability.We also go inside Tangle, Tangent, SimGym, which are three major AI initiatives that Shopify is doing to make experimentation reproducible, optimization automatic, customer behavior simulatable, and search and catalog intelligence faster and cheaper at scale. Along the way, Mikhail explains UCP, Liquid AI, and why token budgets are directionally right but often measured badly, why AI-written code can still increase bugs in production, what makes Shopify’s customer simulation defensible, and what he learned from the Sydney era at Bing.We discuss:* Mikhail’s path from running a major Microsoft business unit spanning Windows, Edge, Bing, and ads to becoming CTO of Shopify* Why Shopify is talking more publicly about AI now, and why staying at the frontier has become necessary for the company* Shopify’s internal AI adoption curve, the December inflection, and why CLI-style tools are rising faster than traditional IDE-based tools* Why Jensen Huang is directionally right on token budgets, but raw token count is still the wrong way to evaluate engineering output* Why the real unlock is not more agents in parallel, but better critique loops, stronger models, and spending more on review than generation* Why AI coding can still lead to more bugs in production even if models write cleaner code on average than humans* Why Shopify built its own PR review flow, and why Mikhail thinks most off-the-shelf review tools miss the point* How PR volume, test failures, and deployment rollback are becoming the real bottlenecks in the agent era* Why Git, pull requests, and CI/CD may need a new metaphor once code is written at machine speed* What Tangle is, and how Shopify uses it to make ML and data workflows reproducible, collaborative, and production-ready from the start* Why Tangle is different from Airflow, and why content-addressed caching creates network effects across teams* What Tangent is, and how Shopify is using auto-research loops to optimize search, themes, prompt compression, storage, and more* Why Tangent is becoming a democratizing tool for PMs and domain experts, not just ML engineers* Why AutoML finally feels real in the LLM era, and where auto-research still falls short today* Why Tangle, Tangent, and SimGym become much more powerful when combined into one system* What SimGym is, why simulated customers only work if you have real historical behavior, and why Shopify’s data gives it a moat* How SimGym evolved from comparing A/B variants to telling merchants what to change on a single live storefront to raise conversions* Why customer simulation is so expensive, from multimodal models to browser farms to serving and distillation costs* How Shopify models merchant and buyer trajectories, runs counterfactuals, and thinks about interventions like discounts, campaigns, and notifications* Why category-level behavior is so different across commerce, and why ideas like Chinese Restaurant Processes are showing up again in practice* Shopify’s new UCP and catalog work, including runtime product search, bulk lookups, and identity linking* Why Shopify is using Liquid AI, and why Mikhail sees it as the first genuinely competitive non-transformer architecture he has used in practice* Where Liquid already works inside Shopify today, from low-latency query understanding to large-scale catalog and Sidekick Pulse workloads* Whether Liquid could become frontier-scale with enough compute, and why Shopify remains pragmatic and merit-based about model choice* Who Shopify is hiring right now across ML, data science, and distributed databases* The Sydney story at Bing, why its personality was not an accident, and what Mikhail learned from deliberately shaping AI character early onMikhail Parakhin* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikhail-parakhin/* X: https://x.com/MParakhinTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction: Mikhail Parakhin, Microsoft, and Shopify00:01:16 Why Shopify Is Talking More About AI00:02:29 Internal AI Adoption at Shopify and the December Inflection00:06:54 Token Budgets, Jensen Huang, and Why Usage Metrics Can Mislead00:10:55 Why Shopify Built Its Own AI PR Review System00:12:38 AI Coding, More Bugs, and the Real Deployment Bottleneck00:14:11 Why Git, PRs, and CI/CD May Need to Change for Agents00:18:24 Tangle: Shopify’s Reproducible ML and Data Workflow Engine00:21:19 Why Tangle Is Different from Airflow00:26:14 Tangent: Auto Research for Optimization and Experimentation00:30:07 How Tangent Democratizes Experimentation Beyond ML Engineers00:33:06 The Limits of Auto Research00:36:36 Why Tangle, Tangent, and SimGym Compound Together00:37:20 SimGym: Simulating Customers with Shopify’s Historical Data00:42:47 The Infra Behind SimGym00:46:00 Why SimGym Gets Better with Real Customer History00:47:30 Counterfactuals, HSTU, and Modeling Merchant Trajectories00:51:55 CRPs, Clustering, and Category-Level Customer Behavior00:53:30 UCP, Shopify Catalog, and Identity Linking00:55:07 Liquid AI: Why Shopify Uses Non-Transformer Models00:59:13 Real Shopify Use Cases for Liquid01:03:00 Can Liquid Scale into a Frontier Model?01:09:49 Hiring at Shopify: ML, Data Science, and Databases01:10:43 Sydney at Bing: Personality Shaping and AI Character01:13:32 Closing ThoughtsTranscript[00:00:00] swyx: Okay. We’re here in the studio, a remote studio, with Mikhail Parakhin, CTO of Shopify. Welcome.[00:00:08] Mikhail Parakhin: Thank you. Welcome.[00:00:10] swyx: I don’t even know if I should introduce you as CTO of Shopify. I feel like you have many identities. Uh, you led sort of the, the Bing ML team, I guess, uh, uh, or ads team. I, I don’t know, I don’t know, uh, you know, it’s, uh, people va-variously refer you as like CEO or, or, uh, I don’t know what that, that, that said previous role at Microsoft was.[00:00:29] Mikhail Parakhin: Uh, that was... Yeah, my previous role w- at Microsoft was the-- I actually was the CEO of one of Microsoft’s business units, which included, as I, you know, as we discussed, all the things that people like to laugh about, uh, including Windows and Edge and Bing and ads and everything.[00:00:47] swyx: Yeah, yeah. What a, what a, what a wild time.You’ve obviously, uh, done a lot since you landed at Shopify. Uh, one of the reasons I reached out was because you started promoting more sort of internal tooling, uh, primarily Tangle, but also a lot of people have seen and adopted Tobi’s QMD, uh, and obviously, I think, uh, Shopify has always been sort of leading in terms of, uh, engineering.I think more-- it’s just more recent that you guys have been more vocal about your sort of AI adoption. Is that, is that true?[00:01:16] Mikhail Parakhin: Well, I think AI tools in general are fairly recent development, uh, and we’ve-- Shopify, you know, at this stage of its development, we’re developing AI in-in-house and other, uh, building tools that use AI and, you know, interfacing with the wider AI community, uh, you know, are on the sort of the, uh, runaway trajectory.So it just did by sort of natural byproduct. We, we talk about it more also. We just, uh, just even yesterday, Andrej Karpathy was famous in tweeting about, oh, are there some, uh, ways, uh, that, that you can organize your agents to store the data and then, uh, look up the data so that you don’t have to research or, or lose context every- Yestime. And a little bit tongue in cheek, I tweeted that, “Hey, we’ve, we’ve done it much earlier, and we even have different approaches, Tobi and I.” Tobi, of course, is a big fan of QMD, and I’m more of a SQL, SQLite fan. But, uh, yeah, very similar things that we’ve already done here. The point is, yeah, we’re very dynamic, you know, explosively growing company, and we have to be at the forefront of AI adoption, obviously.[00:02:29] swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Um, you, your team kindly prepared some slides actually that we were gonna bring up on to, uh, the screen. I think I can, I can screen share, and then we can kind of go through some of the shocking stats that maybe, maybe put some numbers to what exactly is going on. So here we have, uh- An internal AI tool adoption chart.What are we looking at here? What ?[00:02:54] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah, this is very interesting statistics. Uh, this is number of daily active workers, you know, think of, uh, DAO, basically the active users of-[00:03:05] swyx: Yeah ...[00:03:05] Mikhail Parakhin: AI tool as a percentage of all the people in the company, right? And then- Yeah ... different AI tools. And, uh, you could see two things here is that one is the green is total.Uh, green is just total. So you could see that it approaches really % by now. It’s hard not to do your job now without interacting deeply, at least with one tool. You could see another interesting thing is just as many people commented in December was the phase transition when suddenly models gotten good enough that, that everything took off and started growing.Uh, it, it was many people noticed that the thing is that small improvements accumulated into this big change in Sep- December roughly timeframe.[00:03:52] swyx: Yeah.[00:03:52] Mikhail Parakhin: The other thing I would claim you could see is that, uh, CLI-based tools and tools that don’t require you to look at the code becoming more popular, and you could see, yeah, various versions of, uh, Cloud Code and Codex and Pi and internal development tools taking off.Uh, exactly, yeah, uh, and blue is our River, just internal agent for coding, where tools, uh, that require IDEs such as, uh, GitHub, Copilot or Cursor, they’re not exactly shrinking, but they’re not growing as fast. Like, uh, red, red line is, is the IDE kind of tools. So you could see that they’re, they’re not experiencing as, as fast of a growth.[00:04:37] swyx: As I understand it, basically, every employee has their choice, right? Of choose whatever tool you use, and then you’re just kind of doing a, a daily sur-survey or something.[00:04:47] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly. And, uh, we- Yeah ... the, the push is to get your job done, you can use any tool, and we effectively fund unlimited tokens for everybody.Uh, we, we do, we do try to control the models that, uh, people use, but from the bottom, not from top. Like we basically say, “Hey, please don’t use anything less than Opus four point six.”[00:05:09] swyx: Oh .[00:05:10] Mikhail Parakhin: Some people, some people end up using GPT five point four extra high. Some people use Opus four point six. Um, uh, you know, uh, there are some, uh, there are plus and minuses in going for full one million context window versus not.But, uh, we try to discourage people from using anything less than that.[00:05:28] swyx: Yeah, yeah. Got it, got it. Uh, I mean, uh, that’s, you know... The, the next chart here, it really kind of shows the expansion and the sort of December twenty twenty-five inflection, right? That, uh, people are using a lot of tokens. I think it’s also really interesting that no one was kind of abusing it in twenty twenty-five.Like it was- Had comparatively, uh, to this year, there was almost no growth. I mean, it’s still like, you know, probably, probably gave fifty percent.[00:05:56] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. This is just a different scale. It’s still exponential- Yeah, yeah ...growth at just a different- ...rate of expansion. Uh, there was inflection point, and Sean, I would claim the, the super interesting part here is that you could see that the distribution becoming more and more skewed.Yes. The top percentiles grow faster. So that means- Yeah ...the people in the top ten percentile, they, their consumption grows faster than seventy-five and so forth. So, uh, the distribution skews more and more towards the highest users, which is... I don’t know what it tells me. It’s like it feels not ideal, to be honest.Or maybe it’s okay. We’ll see.[00:06:36] swyx: Why does it feel not ideal? Is, is it because of, um, quantity over quality, or what’s the concern?[00:06:42] Mikhail Parakhin: Because take it to the limit. That means, you know, if, if this rate of separation continued- Ah, yes ...a year, there will be one person consuming all the tokens. So it’s just, it’s kinda strange.[00:06:54] swyx: Yeah, I mean, um, uh, I, I think internal like teaching and all that, uh, will, will help sort of distribute things more widely. But in, in the early days, of course, the people who are sort of more AI-pilled will obviously find more ways to use it than the people who are less AI-pilled. Maybe let’s, let’s call it that.I’ll just, I’ll just kinda quickly, uh, pause from the, the... You know, we will go back to the rest of the slides, but I just wanna, um, review, you know, there are a lot of CTOs of, of large companies like yourself where they’re all considering some kind of token budget, right? Like I think it’s something, something that Jensen Huang has been talking about, where like if your 200K engineer is not using 100K of tokens every year, like they’re, they’re underutilizing coding agents.Of course, Jensen Huang would say that, but like it seems a very quantity over quality approach and like some, some people are basically saying like, well, is this comparable to judging engineer quality by lines of code, right? Which we also know is like kind of flawed, but better than nothing. So I, I don’t know if you have like a sort of management take here on, on how to view this kind of, uh, metrics.[00:08:02] Mikhail Parakhin: Well, I mean, you’re, you’re baiting me. I, I like... This is my favorite topic. Uh, if you let me, I’ll probably talk for two hours on just this. I have a lot of things to say. Like I do think Jensen gotten a lot of bad press saying, “Oh, of course you’re, you know, this, uh, the- ...the cake seller says you don’t need enough cakes.”You know? Like, of course. Uh, but, uh, I actually, uh, think that’s undeserved. I think he, he’s actually right. Uh, I do think- He,[00:08:33] swyx: he’s directionally correct.[00:08:35] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. Yeah. He’s directionally correct for sure. Uh-[00:08:37] swyx: Who knows what the right number is? Yeah.[00:08:39] Mikhail Parakhin: The thing that I do Uh, want to say, and this is something that we learned through trial and error and very important is like two things.One is that it’s not about just consuming tokens. Uh, you can consume tokens and, and in fact, the anti-pattern is running multiple agents, too many agents in parallel that don’t communicate with each other. That’s almost useless, uh, compared to just fewer agents and burns tokens very efficiently. Uh, setting up the right critique loop, especially with the high quality models, where one agent does something, the other one, ideally with a different model, critiques it, uh, suggests ways to improve it, the agent redoes it with this critique and, and so it takes much longer.So people don’t like it because latency goes up. You know, they, they have to wait until this debate is happening. But, uh, the quality of the code is much higher. And another thing, just since you mentioned like, look, uh, uh, yeah, the overall budget is just like, uh, lines of codes. Lines of codes are exploding for everybody right now, or partially because AI is really mover balls, but partially just because AI can write a lot more code, you know, doesn’t get tired.And so you have to have to have a very strong narrow waist during PR review. Otherwise, just the number of bugs will go through the roof. It’s, uh, it’s this unexpected consequence of the just volume trumping everything. I would claim by now good model writes code on average with fewer bugs than, than the average human.But since they write so much more of it, like more of it will make it into production. So you have to- You still[00:10:26] swyx: have[00:10:26] Mikhail Parakhin: more bugs. Yeah. Have to have a very rigorous PR reviews, also automated of course. But, uh, yeah, that to spend a lot budget there. Like this, this for me, for me, actually, the important metric is the ratio of budget spent during code generation versus, uh, spent, uh, expensive tokens like GPT, uh, five point four Pro or, uh, uh, Deep Think from Gemini, you know, checking on PR reviews.[00:10:55] swyx: Yeah, totally. Uh, I noticed in your chart you didn’t have any review tools. Do you just use like, like let’s say a Claude code to review tools? Or do you have another set of review tools like the Greptiles, the Code Rabbits, uh, Devin Reviews has a review tool. I don’t know if you’ve had those specialist review tools.[00:11:13] Mikhail Parakhin: You are a little bit jumping on my store tool right now because the graphs I was only showing public tools. Uh, uh, the-- I haven’t found a good PR review tool that, that does what I think should be done. And, uh, partially my, my thinking is because it’s so... It just goes against both what people feel like emotionally they prefer and, uh, some of the, uh, you know, frankly Even business models that, that the companies run.At peer review tool, uh, time, you want to run the largest models. That means, I don’t know, Codex or, or, uh, Cloud Code is not gonna cut it. You need to have pro-level models if you really want to, uh, stand the tide of bots from going into production. And you need us to spend a lot of time, the models taking turns, but you don’t want, like, a big swarm of, uh, of, uh, agents.So in fact, you end up in a different dual-dualistic world where you generate not that many tokens. You, in fact, generate few tokens, but it takes f-a long time because these are expensive models taking turns rather than many, many agents trying to do many things in parallel. So that’s, that’s why I feel like I haven’t found good tools, so we are using our own for peer review for now.[00:12:33] swyx: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, uh, I think a lot of companies are building their own, uh, especially to their needs, right?[00:12:38] Mikhail Parakhin: Mm-hmm.[00:12:38] swyx: Um, I, uh, you also have a chart here going back to the slides on, uh, PR merge growth, where we’re now at thirty percent, uh, month on month rather than ten percent. Uh, and also the, the estimated complexity is going up.You know, this is productivity, right? ‘Cause y- presumably there’s more stuff going into the code base and more, more features getting worked on. I’m curious about the backlog, right? Like the, the, the-- I actually don’t mind a pro-level model taking an hour or two hours to review my PR, because I’ve dealt with humans who take a week to review my PR, right?And I keep pinging them on Slack, “Hey, hey, review my PR.” So, you know, I think there’s some trade-off here where, like, it still doesn’t make sense.[00:13:18] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly. That, that’s exactly m-my point. Uh, that on one hand, you can tolerate longer latencies at, uh, PR. On the other hand, like right now, the real problem is not in spending time waiting for PR.It’s real problem is since there’s so much more code than- Yeah ... uh, probability of at least some tests failing going up, and then you, like, keep de-failing, then you have to find the offending PR, evict it, retest it without that PR, and so deployment cycle becomes much longer. Uh, so it actually, in terms of the overall time to deploy, it’s total time savings if you spend more time on a longer model, like thinking for an hour, because then, then you, you don’t have to spend all that time during testing and rolling, you know, rolling back the deployment.[00:14:03] swyx: Yeah, totally. That’s still worth it. You know, you don’t look at the individual, look at the aggregate, and look at the, the, the change in the aggregate system.[00:14:11] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly.[00:14:11] swyx: I’m kind of curious if, like, there’s this PR mentality and, like, c-- the, the, the CICD paradigm will be changed eventually. Some people are like, obviously a lot of people want new GitHub, but I even wonder if, like, Git is the problem, right?Like, is that the bottleneck? Is the concept of a PR a bottleneck? Do you guys use stack diffs? I don’t know if, uh, that’s a, like, a merge queue stack diff type of thing.[00:14:34] Mikhail Parakhin: We, we use, we use Stacks, we u- we use Graphite. We worked with, uh, Graphite a lot. Uh, so we use Stack, uh, PRs. I think, uh, like that’s clearly the overall CICD in general, and the interaction with the code repository right now is the, clearly the sort of the, the main issue and the bottleneck for us, uh, and highest top of mind.I would say we probably need a different metaphor or different whole design of how to process it in new agentic world. I haven’t seen anything dramatically better yet. I, I think everybody right now is just trying to keep their head above the water ‘cause, ‘cause there, there’s so many PRs and then everybody’s CICD pipelines start creaking, the, the times are increasing, the number of bugs slipping by increasing, and you have to, have to clap on down.And so we are a little bit in this situation when we need to first stabilize that story and then start thinking, hey, what, what it could be a completely different and new world, which I haven’t... I know some people working on it. I haven’t seen something, like anything super compelling yet, but clearly the old thing were designed for humans will need to be morphed into something new.[00:15:53] swyx: One of the thing that I, I think about is kind of like the merge conflict is basically a global mutex on the whole system, right? And in, in hu- in human organizations, we do have something like that. It’s the company standup. But like, other than that, it’s like it’s actually fitting for us to be somewhat decentralized, somewhat plugged into one stream of information source, but somewhat lossy.Like it’s okay, you know, that, that not every delivery is like atomic consistency. Like we’re not dealing with a database sometimes.[00:16:27] Mikhail Parakhin: This is a very good point, uh, because since humans don’t write code too fast, you know that global mutex is not too bad. Once you-[00:16:36] swyx: Yes ...[00:16:37] Mikhail Parakhin: start writing code at the speed of machine, it becomes the, you know, the bottleneck.Then what do you do? Maybe, and I can’t believe I’m saying this because I, I’m long-- lifelong opponent of, uh, microservices, and I always thought that was, like, a really bad idea. And now that you’re saying it, like, maybe in new guys like microservices will make a comeback, you know, because then you, you can ship things independently in tiny things and, and the managing all that complexity automatically will be much easier.I don’t know. Like, we’ll s-- we’ll have to see.[00:17:10] swyx: Yeah. I mean, I don’t know what the Microsoft or, or Shopify thing is, but I, I read this paper from Google where they have a monorepo that deploys into microservices, right? And then, uh, the other concept that I think about a lot is the Chaos Monkey concept from, from Netflix.Being able to create, like, this robust system where, um, uh, you know, you, you have the service discovery, you have the, uh, the independent, independent microservices discovery and, and, uh, you know, probably going to be a fair amount of duplication. That’s how an organic system sort of scales, uh, that, that you have that...I don’t know how you call it. Slack? Robustness? Depend-- uh, d-duplication. I, I, I forget the-- I, I’m-- And this-- those-- these are not exactly the terms- Hmm ... I’m looking for, but I c-can’t really think of the words. Okay. I was gonna go into Tangent and Tangle. Uh, so, uh, we, we sort of discussed the overall stats that, uh, Shopify has.Uh, but, you know, I, I think some, some pretty cool stuff that you guys are working on is your ML experimentation, uh, and your, your sort of auto tr-research training pipeline. Presumably you’re much closer to this one because it’s, it’s a sort of personal hobby of yours. How, how would you explain them in, together?I thought we have a slide that, like, uh, has the s- the system diagram.[00:18:24] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. Tangle first and then Tangent as a-[00:18:27] swyx: Yeah ...[00:18:28] Mikhail Parakhin: as a thing on top of Tangle. And, uh, Tangle is the third generation, I claim, of, uh, systems of, uh, running any data processing, but a bit with a skew for ML experiments, but not necessarily. Any sort of data processing tasks where you need to iterate, share, and you have scale so that you want maximum efficiency.You know how, like, normally you would work, you would-- Imagine you’re a data scientist or an ML practitioner, you would get Jupiter notebooks or, or maybe you would get, uh, you know, Pyth- your Python scripts, and you would manage the data, and you produce those TSV files, and you put them in some JFS or something.Then you would notice that, oh, it has this, uh, weird missing values. You go and write another script that, uh, goes and replaces them with, uh-[00:19:20] swyx: Ah ...[00:19:21] Mikhail Parakhin: dash S. And then, then you, then you run some, some, uh, “Oh, I need to filter bots.” And so you run some light GBM model that, uh, removes the bots. And then, then you like-- And then you, you kind of like get into shape, and then you start experimenting, and you run multiple experiments, and then you’re like, “Oh my God,” like, “this experiment is worse.”You undo, and you cannot get to previous result. And like, “Ah, what did I do?” Like that. Again, then, then you finally like get everything working. Then you like start throwing it over the fence to production. You, you replicate it, those things don’t work, and then sometimes you like don’t notice that you forgot some feature naming and the, the features don’t match.But then, like imagine you, you did everything, and then six months later you’re like, have to repeat it because now there’s more data, or you wanted to do another pass, and you’re like, “What, what did I do?” Or like, or like, “This script crashes now,” or the, “the path has changed.” And then, then you’re trying to, like you spend another month just doing ar- digital archeology on your own, you know, history, right?Now multiply that by many, many teams. Now imagine you got an intern that you wanna ramp up. Now you have to show that intern, “Oh, you know, look, here’s the folder, there’s the scripts, you know, ask your cloud agent to do, and then, uh, to, to figure it out.” And then cloud agent does something, and then you’re, “Ah, yeah, right, right, it was the wrong folder.I forgot to tell you, I actually have this other thing I forgot myself.” And, and that’s, that’s the, like, the daily life we all, uh, all know it, uh, if, if you’re a data scientist, machine practitioner, ma- machine learning practitioner or, uh, or even like any data managing, uh, person.[00:21:00] swyx: Yeah. So I, I used to do this, uh, f- uh, on the quant finance side, uh, in, in my hedge fund.So we did this before Airflow, and then, uh, obviously Airflow came along and, uh, then more recently Dagster, uh, I would say is like, in my mind, what I would use for that shape of problem, uh, where you had to materialize assets and create a pipeline.[00:21:19] Mikhail Parakhin: And that’s, that’s very good segue because... So Airflow is great, but Airflow is more about you, you have something and you wanna repeatedly run it in production on schedule.It’s less about you as a team developing things and being able to share, and you grabbing the standard pipeline and saying, “Hey, I wanna change this tiny little component in the huge sea of data processing, and I don’t wanna-- I wanna run ten experiments on this, and I wanna do hyperparameter optimization.”All that is very hard to do with Airflow. It’s very easy to do with Tango. Tango is m- more about, it’s everything about group of people Running experiments, it might be agents too nowadays. Uh, running experiments cheaply, collaborating, sharing results. Uh, you don’t need to understand fully. You, you grab-- you clone somebody else’s experiment or somebody else’s pipeline, uh, run, uh, change small piece, run it, be, like, get it to production state, and then ship in one click.So then the... You don’t have to port it into any other system to, to run in production. You can just run the same experiment. It’s, it’s fully production ready. And, and it’s, uh, it has lots of... Again, as I said, it’s third generation system. The original one was, I would claim there was Ether and then, uh, at least in my career, Ether was the first, first, uh, that pioneered this type of approach.And then there was, uh, Nirvana, which, uh, uh, at Yandex, which did kind of sec-second take on this. And now this one aggregates the, the learnings from all of those and, and Airflow as well to, to get to the state where you try it, it, it feels kind of magical. Uh, ‘cause now everything is based on content, uh, hashes.So even if the version changed, but if the output didn’t change, nothing is being rerun. It’s very efficient. If you... Multiple people start experiment that needs the same sort of data preprocessing, it’s not repeated multiple times. It’s automatically done only once. If you start ten experiments that all require, you know, some, some data preparation first as the first step, and you don’t have to coordinate for that.Like, you don’t have to know that other people are starting it. You now, it’s very easy compos-, uh, composability, any language you can u- uh, you wanna use, and it’s very visual. So you can see immediately, you can edit it easily, you can assemble small things with just even mouse clicks if you want to, and, uh, share, clone.And everybody knows also it’s fully kind of static in the sense that we rerun it second time, it will exactly have the same results. Like, you will never have to do digital archeology. So full versioning and everything is also there.[00:24:06] swyx: Uh, so, so people can, uh... It’s open source. Go to the GitHub repo and, and, uh, check it out.Uh, and it is also a really good, uh, blog post about it. I think all these is, like, really appealing. The, the, the, the thing that I think sells me the most about it is that, um, sort of development to production transition, right? Which I think, um, a lot of people haven’t really solved that, uh, strictly, right?Like, we develop really, really well in, in Python notebooks, but then, you know, that’s obviously not a sort of production ready process. I think that, like, any way in which that is solved, I think is, is very appealing. Then the other thing that you mentioned, which also raised my eyebrows, was content-based caching, which you mentioned is, is, um, you know, is ve-very much, uh, um, a sort of efficiency measure about, uh, you know, just like recalculation only on, on sort of content addressing Which I think makes sense.Uh, it surprised me that the savings could be this much, but maybe I just haven’t worked at your scale where there’s so much duplication, uh, that people just rerun because they change a single ID upstream.[00:25:10] Mikhail Parakhin: It does, yeah. But it’s not only you rerun. The, the main savings are coming from the fact that you ran it, you got your job done, and you moved on.Then- Yeah ... somebody else in some department you don’t know existed runs the same task, but on a newer version.[00:25:27] swyx: Yeah.[00:25:27] Mikhail Parakhin: Like right now, you can’t, in, in most of the organizations, you can’t even find out about it so that you can’t even measure that you’re spending that time twice, right? Here- Yeah ... if everybody’s on Tango, that’s detected automatically and detected that the output is the same.And then for that person, all it looks like is like experiment just suddenly moved, jumped forward, right? Uh, uh- Yeah ... so that’s because, because the, there’s network effect of multiple people helping each other.[00:25:51] swyx: Yeah. This is one of those things where it’s designed to be a platform from the beginning rather than an individual developer’s tool from the beginning, right?And, and everything’s gonna streams down from there. That is the sort of Tango, uh, orchestrator, and it’s, it manages jobs. We’ve seen a few versions of this, and this is obviously, uh, uh, the sort of, uh, unique approaches that you guys have, have, uh, figured out. And then there’s Tangent.[00:26:14] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. And Tangent is basically an automatic auto research loop that can help and kind of do your work for you.Uh- ... you know, uh, effectively, effectively, Andrej Karpathy recently popularized it with auto research. Yes. Remember he said like he was, uh, speed running this, uh... Yeah, uh, you know the story. The, here we’re basically bringing the same capability into Tango so that, uh, the, uh, Tangent can analyze it. It’s just an agent that can run multiple experiments, figure out what can be changed, and keep on rerunning it, keep on modifying until, uh, maximizing some goal, some loss function, whatever you need to, to achieve.And in general, I would say if you’re not using auto research-like approach in whatever you do, like literally whatever you do, then you’re missing out. We saw at Shopify that taking like a wildfire, anything where you can put measurements can be done dramatically better. Our-[00:27:19] swyx: Mm-hmm ...[00:27:20] Mikhail Parakhin: uh, speed of, uh, templatization HTML, uh, completely new UX tem- uh, templatization of, uh, reducing latency for liquid themes.Uh, we-- Our, uh, search, uh, recently we moved from It’s hard even, uh, quote from eight hundred QPS to forty-two hundred QPS with the same quality just by pure optimizations and not a research loop that kept running and changing code in our index serve on the same number of machines, just increasing the throughput.We, we managed to improve the quality of gisting and machine learning process. Uh, you know, gisting is the prompt compression technique that[00:27:59] swyx: allows for[00:28:00] Mikhail Parakhin: lower latency and, and lower and, uh, actually higher quality slightly. So like literally whatever different walks of life, and it doesn’t have to be AI related.Uh, we, we had a reduction in, uh, storage because the agents would go and find data sets that clearly are derivative, uh, and then you don’t need to store things twice. You know, we, we, we found somewhat embarrassingly that it was one of the largest tables was hashing random IDs into another random ID, and we literally- Oofput only one. So it was translating, yeah, two random IDs hashed[00:28:36] swyx: into[00:28:37] Mikhail Parakhin: each. So, so[00:28:37] swyx: it has access to the code as well, so it can, it can check the, like what, what the hell is it doing?[00:28:42] Mikhail Parakhin: So there, there cou- it could be run in two levels. You, uh, you know, at the superficial level, it could just use ex-existing components and, uh, reshuffle them.Uh, you know, like you can grab- Yeah ... uh, XGBoost, and you can grab some, some Py- PyTorch module, and then can grab some, you know, grab another tools and, and combine them. At a deeper level, since Tangle is all sort of CLI based underneath you, every, every component is a wrapped really CLI, uh, call and a YAML file, it can analyze code and create new components and, and, uh, keep on iterating as well.So, so you can, you can both have quick modifications of existing t- uh, pipelines with the, with components that are already there pre-baked, or you can create new components, uh, and-[00:29:29] swyx: Yeah ...[00:29:29] Mikhail Parakhin: keep iterating on those. So auto research is, again, this is probably the, the thing I was excited the most in the last two months happening, and we see it taking like, like totally like a wildfire.Just, uh, everybody, every day, every... well, every day, every minute, I would, uh, have somebody Slack message saying, “Oh, look how much better I made it.” And, uh, it’s all throughout the research.[00:29:53] swyx: Is this democratized in some way in, in the sense that like is it your ML, uh, engineers and researchers doing this, or is it your regular PMs and software engineers also have the ability to auto-- to use Tangent?[00:30:07] Mikhail Parakhin: This is an awesome question. Like, Tango in general and Tangent in particular are extremely democratizing. Like they- Yeah ... they are the main tools for- ‘Cause I don’t[00:30:15] swyx: need the details.[00:30:16] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. Exactly. Initially used by ML and AI engineers, but then literally, as you said, PMs are like the highest user right now is one of PMs on our org, uh, Sartak and he was, he was number one by, by usage of, of this ‘cause they’re just, uh, energetic and knowledgeable, and now it, it unlocks a lot of capability where you don’t have to co-change code manually.[00:30:39] swyx: I mean, I mean, because it kind of cuts out the ML, ML engineer from the process because the, the, the PMs have the domain knowledge and the ability to think about, uh, from first principles about, okay, what, what results do I want? And they can-- they even have the access to the data that, that needs to go in.So it’s like in some ways, like this is the magic black box that we’ve always wanted for, for training and, and for, uh, I guess, uh, uh, hill climbing, whatever.[00:31:04] Mikhail Parakhin: It’s basically cloud code for your AI development- ... uh, situation, right? Like now, now you don’t have to know exactly how algorithms work. You can just, uh, bring your domain knowledge and expertise and product knowledge and iterate within Tangent until you’ve gotten the results that you need.[00:31:21] swyx: In my previous roles, every time that someone has pitched AutoML, you know, I’ve always been like, “Uh, this is not, this is not gonna work. It’s, you know, it’s, it’s always gonna be a flop.” Somehow it’s working now. I mean, presumably the answer is now we have LLMs and it’s good enough, right? It’s, it’s an emergent property that we can do auto research, but like, it doesn’t feel that satisfying that how come we didn’t do this before, right?Like we just did like parameter search and like, I don’t know. That’s maybe that’s it.[00:31:48] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. Bayesian optimization and hyperparameter optimization was, was the one that, or facet of AutoML that was used very actively, which incidentally also built into, uh, Tango. But, you know, I know Patrice Simard very well, and, uh, he was such a, uh, such a proponent of AutoML, and he put, like literally spent careers trying to democratize it.Without LLMs, it just turned out to be very hard. Like it, you, you would have flexibility within certain narrow domain, but it was hard to wider scale, and now with LLMs suddenly it’s like magic wand, and so suddenly everybody- ... is an AutoML expert.[00:32:28] swyx: Yeah, I, I think it’s multiple things, right? Like I’m, I’m just gonna bring up the, the, the chart again, right?Like LLMs can do the monitoring very well. That is the very potentially unbounded, super unstructured. It can do the analysis very well, it can do the... Uh, and basically it is much more intelligence poured into every single step. Uh, there’s maybe nothing structurally changed about AutoML, but this is just m-more intelligent and more unstructured.[00:32:53] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly.[00:32:54] swyx: Any flaws that you’ve run into? Like everyone is like drinking the Kool-Aid, oh my God, time savings, uh, you know, performance improvements. Like what, what, uh, issues have you have, uh, come up?[00:33:06] Mikhail Parakhin: This is really cool. It’s not a solution to all the world’s problems for sure. The limitations are usually the ones I-- And this is where we get into a bit of a subjective territory.Uh, I can only share what I’ve, I’ve seen so far, and I’m sure the situation, uh, is changing, and, you know, maybe after I say it, like many people will reach out and say, “Hey, what about this?” And you don’t know that, and then, then we’ll be probably right. But what I’ve seen is auto research is very good at doing kind of obvious things that you don’t have bandwidth to do or you didn’t notice or maybe you’re not aware of like the-- some standard practices.It is not good at doing something completely out of distribution, something that, you know, you have to think for, for multiple days, uh, and, and do something like none of this. So, so it’s, uh, I, uh, set an experiment once, uh, on, on my sort of, uh, hobby thing, and I let it run for, uh, ended up, uh, several weeks run, uh, you know, it’s like full production kind of scale, so it, you know, slow runs and, and it ex-- it performed in the end, uh, over four hundred experiments, and only one was successful.I’m like, “Okay, that’s, that’s good.” But-[00:34:18] swyx: But it saved time.[00:34:19] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah, I saved time. Like it, it was the, that thing. Yeah, if I, if I were doing four hundred experiments myself, my betting average, as I said, would have been much higher, I’m sure. But also, first of all, it would take me like three years to do four hundred experiments.And, uh, I didn’t have to do them. Like the machines were just, uh, the price of electricity did that. So, and I got one improvement, uh, that in, uh, my, my-- Honestly, when I was starting that experiment, my thinking was to go and show that, “Hey, Andre, maybe you just don’t know how to optimize.” And I was super smart because in, in my pro-problem, it was optimized for many years, and it was like fully improved.Uh, and I didn’t expect it, you know, auto research to find anything at all. Yet it did. So instead of making fun of Andre, I ended up, uh, a big, big supporter. Yeah, that’s exactly the tweet. Yes.[00:35:10] swyx: You and Toby really, really go back and forth on-online a lot, which is really funny. Uh, think of it as, as an eval for the optimalness of the code it’s running on.Uh, it’s almost like it reminds me of like a Kolmogorov complexity thing, but, uh, I guess it’s-- there’s some optimal thing that you’re trying to sort of reduce down to, I guess. Um, and so, so you, you, you know, you should congratulate yourself that you had, uh, you know, uh, ninety-nine percent, uh, optimality.[00:35:36] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly, yeah. I think Andre really deserves a lot of credit for popularizing this approach. This is, uh, this is incredibly, I think, powerful and cool and You know, the, uh, even him, him just mentioning it led to a lot of gains in a lot of places in the industry, so we should be thankful.[00:35:56] swyx: Yeah. I think he also has a just...I don’t know what it is. Like, um, you know, it, it is a simple self-contained project that people can take and apply to other things, which is, is, is one thing, but also just the name. Just like somehow no one, no one managed to call their thing auto research. It’s just naming things is very important. I think that that is mostly, uh, our coverage of Tango and, and, uh, Tangents.I think obviously, you know, there’s a lot of, uh, ML infra at, at Shopify that people can, uh, dive into. We’re about to go into SimGym, but before I do that, any, any other sort of broader comments around this whole effort? Like where is it, where is it leading to?[00:36:36] Mikhail Parakhin: As a segue to SimGym, like all those things start composing strongly.And, uh, you could see a huge unlock when you can look at each one of the tools and, and you see, oh, they’re extremely useful. Uh, Tango is useful by itself. Auto Research is useful by itself. SimGym is useful by itself. If you combine all three, you create like synergetic effect. I think that’s why we wanted to even, uh, cover them today is because this is something that if you go back even, you know, five years ago, would’ve been unthinkable.Uh, replicating that, uh, would, would be either incredibly costly or impossible, right? With probably thousands of people are required.[00:37:20] swyx: Well, we have serverless human, uh, serverless intelligence, right? Like, uh, so yes, you do have thousands of hu-- of, of intelligences, not just, not humans. And that’s, that’s close enough, right?Even if they’re not AGI, they’re, they’re close enough to do the, the task that you need them to do. And, and, you know, that’s, there’s plenty for, for a lot of routine work, knowledge work. Okay, let’s get into SimGym. Um, this is one of those things I, I was surprised to see actually it’s apparently your, uh, one of your most popular launches, and I think something that, uh, I think Sim AI, I think Yunjun Park, who did the Smallville thing, there’s a very small cottage industry of people trying to do like the simulate customer thing.I think a lot of people maybe don’t super trust this yet because they’re like, well, obviously they would just do what you prompt them to do, right? But maybe just think, uh, tell us about the sort of inspiration or origin story.[00:38:10] Mikhail Parakhin: That’s exactly actually the thing I wanted to cover, because if you don’t have the historical data, all you can do is prompt a-agents in a vacuum, and they will do exactly what you prompt them to do.In fact, when I first proposed it, and this is a bit of, um, my brainchild initially, if I, I can boast, even Toby said like, “But wouldn’t they, they just repeat what, what you tell them?” And, uh, but I’m like, “Yes, except Shopify has decades of history of how people made changes and what there is, uh, there, what it resulted in terms of sales.”So now what we can do is we can-- we have this... It’s not, it’s a noisy data. There’s a small, usually websites, uh, you know, like things, things are never in isolation. It’s almost never AB experiment. It’s always AA experiment when there’s has two meanings, but basically, you know, in different time you run two different things.But if you aggregate in general, uh, like everything together, and you apply, uh, denoising and collaborative filtering like approach, you can extract a very clear signal. And then you can optimize your agents. And that’s why it took so long. It took almost a year of that optimization of just us sitting and fiddling, and, and we had this internal goals of correlation of hitting-- internal goal was to hit zero point seven correlation with, uh, add to cart events, for example.Like that, that if we run real AB test experiment, that it should, it should go and, and rep-uh, replicate, uh, same sort of success that, that humans had or lack thereof. And it, it took forever, and I don’t think that’s easily replicatable because, uh, like who else would have that data? You have to have this historic, you know, decades, uh, worth of data.And now, now the, like the other thing you need is in-infrastructure and the scale, right? Because, uh, w- again, what we found, uh, stat sig results, you need to run a lot of simulations, a lot of agents, and, and it’s-- Those are expensive things. Like you’re, you’re making actions in the browser because you want a real friction.You want to, to be able to get the image like of what humans will see because you wanna, uh, detect effects like, “Hey, if I make my images larger, will I have more sales or l- uh, fewer sales?” And like usually people’s intuition here, by the way, is that I increase my images, I will have more because they look nicer.You know, designers all look sparse and big images. Like usually your sales tank, right? But, but, uh, you know, from HTML, all the characters look the same only the, the size tag looks different, right? So it’s very hard. So you have to take visual information, you have to run this in simulated browser environment on the big farm and, and of course, you have to have, uh, like very, very expensive model, good model with multi-model model.So all this it’s-- is what’s taken so long and, uh, to share my personal fail a little bit there, Sean, is like, you know, we always had this bias to-- for like large company bias. You know, we always, uh, whenever you-- we do, we’re like, “Hey, we’ll run an experiment,” right? We make, make a change, and we will run an experiment and then, uh, see, uh, see which one’s better or like, “No, this is worse,” and most of them are worse, so you discard it and keep iterating, hill climbing.And we’re like, “Oh, like smaller merchants, they cannot get stat sig results. They cannot really run experiments simply because, you know, in a week there would be not enough data for them.” So we thought from this perspective. What we didn’t realize is that most people don’t have A and B, they just have one thing, and they need suggestions of What A and B should be.So, uh, we first build this, hey, we run simulation on two separate teams and, and, uh, say, “Hey, which one is better?” We then morphed it into, and very recently just released it, when you have just your site, your theme, we run over it and we say, “Hey, here’s what predicted values of, of, uh, uh, conversions are, and here’s how we think you should modify it to increase your conversions.”And then circling back to what you started with, the proof is in the pudding. Like, if we are not correlating with reality, like, people will not be using it. And, uh, thankfully, we see literally every day more users than the previous day. So, so right now, uh, right now- It’s working. Yeah. I’m-- Right now my problem is how to pay for it all because the so our major thing is how to optimize the LLMs, do distillation, how to run the headless browsers, uh, and handful browsers, uh, uh, cheaper so that we can accommodate the increase in traffic.[00:42:47] swyx: Yeah. I, I understand that you, uh, you published a lot of technical detail at GTC, so I was just gonna bring it up a little bit. I think s- was this in, in con-conjunction with some kind of GTC presentation? Or something like that, right?[00:42:59] Mikhail Parakhin: Well, we, yeah, we, we did it in several place, but yeah, we had the engineering- Yeahblog, uh, as well. Yeah.[00:43:05] swyx: Yeah. So you’re running, uh, GPT OSS. Uh,[00:43:08] Mikhail Parakhin: the, this is an older version. You know, now we run multimodal model. But yeah- Yeah ... GPT OSS, we still run GPT OSS as well for[00:43:15] swyx: And then you have the VMs, and you also have browser-based. I really like this one where it you said, “It violates almost every assumption that standard LLM serving is designed for.”And then you had like, basically orders of magnitude differences between everything.[00:43:29] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly. Which is, which, uh, which was, you know, a bit of a challenge to implement, like when, like even simple things. Uh, be- since it violates all the assumptions, for example, multi-instance GPUs, like MIGs don’t work as well.But we needed, uh, to get MIG to work because, ‘cause otherwise it’s way too expensive. And so we had to deal with the, yeah, with, uh, lots of infrastructure and, and, uh, work with, uh, uh, Fireworks and CentML, uh, you know, to help with optimizations and browser-based, as you mentioned. Yeah, like, takes a village.[00:44:04] swyx: Okay. So there’s a lot of like, I guess, experimentation in the infrastructure so far, and you’ve published more or less what you have here. I guess I’m, I’m less familiar with CentML. I, I don’t do, uh, that much work in this, this part of the stack. But why was it the sort of preferred instance platform?[00:44:22] Mikhail Parakhin: There are really three probably top companies. There used to be, uh, uh- Three top companies, uh, at least I was aware of that did, uh, LM optimization. You know, together Fireworks and Santa ML, not necessarily in that order. Santa ML recently got acquired by NVIDIA. Uh, what they did is if you have a model and you want to optimize it to a specific prof-- uh, profile of usage, uh, they would go and do it.And, uh, we work with, with those companies, uh, this was work particularly in with Santa ML and NVIDIA to get them the best possible results out of it. And, and sometimes you, you have to retune depending on, like sometimes you want the maximum throughput, sometimes you want minimal latency, sometimes you want like the cheapest, right?And, yeah, or some combination. And so yeah, these are people who would come and help you.[00:45:14] swyx: I see. I see. Yeah, yeah. I’m familiar with these people for the LLM, you know, autoregressive stack. But the other interesting category of these optimizers is also the diffusion people, whereas like Fel and, you know, uh, Pruna recently has come up a lot as well, which I think is like really underappreciated, uh, at least by myself, because I, I thought, oh, all the workload would be LLMs, but actually there’s a lot of diffusion as well.[00:45:38] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly.[00:45:38] swyx: There’s a lot here, so I, I, I... it’s, it’s, uh, it’s, it’s, it’s hard to cover. But I, I do think like people underappreciate the importance of customer simulation, basically. I think this is something that I’m candidly still getting to terms with. Uh, you know, uh, you also-- your team also like prepared this, like, really nice diagram.Uh, I, I assume this is AI generated.[00:46:00] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah, it looks-[00:46:01] swyx: Maybe it’s not.[00:46:01] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah, it looks, uh, Gemini-ish. Yeah, but, uh, uh, honestly, I, I don’t know where, where the hell they generated. It looks, look, uh, looks like it’s, uh, Google. But the interesting part, John, that, that, uh, we haven’t covered, but I, I wanted to mention is if your store had previous customers, rather than it’s a new store, you’re like new merchant just launching things, it helps tremendously in just correlation and forecast.Yeah, we take your previous, uh, customer’s behavior, and we create agents that replicate those specific distribution of, of customers that you get, and then we a- we apply those to your changes, and then that, that raised raw, you know, the re-- uh, just correlation with the add to cart events or to-- with conversion or whatever it, it, it may be, uh, quite dramatically.So, uh, replicating humans in general seems like an interesting, cool challenge.[00:46:58] swyx: As a shareholder, I think this is the-- like if people are Shopify shareholders, they should really deeply understand this because this is basically the moat. The, the more you use Shopify, the more it will just automatically improve, right?Like you’re, you’re doing the job for them.[00:47:13] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah, that’s what we started with. Like, uh- ... uh, otherwise, if you’re just a startup, I wouldn’t do it if, uh, you know, if it was my startup because Without the data, it, yeah, as, as you said, it’s, it’s exactly the case that, uh, whatever you say in prompt, that’s, that’s what the agents will be doing.[00:47:30] swyx: The statistician in me wants to like really satisfy the sort of, um, statistical intuition, I guess. Um, to me it’s kind of, uh, the, the word that comes to mind is, um, ergodicity. Uh, so let’s say a, a customer takes this path, customer takes this path, customer takes this path, right? Um, the... In my mind, the way I explain it is like, okay, here, here’s the ninety-five percentile, here’s the five percentile, and here’s the median, right?Um, but to me, what SimGym is potentially doing is that it can, uh, modify... It can sort of model the sort of in-between sort of journeys as well, that, that maybe are dependent on the previous states. This may be like a very RL-type conclusion where like basically the summary statistics, if you only did naive AB testing, you only have the, the statistics at, at, at a certain point, and you only judge based on the sort of overall summary statistics.But here you can actually model trajectories. Does that make sense? Or-[00:48:31] Mikhail Parakhin: That makes total sense because like, well, that, that makes even more sense that maybe even you realize bec- because-[00:48:38] swyx: Okay. Please,[00:48:38] Mikhail Parakhin: please. Yes ... we do-- Yeah. The, so internally, uh, we have this system, we talked about it briefly once at NeurIPS.We have a huge HSTU-based system that models the whole companies, uh, and their possible paths. And like- Yeah ... what you are, what you are showing, like actually at any point of time, you can either model the user’s behavior or you mo- can also think about, uh, the whole merchant as a company, as the entity that acts in the world.You can model that as well. And then you can do, can do counterfactuals. In your graph, like in your blue graph, uh, if you’re... Imagine in the center there, uh, somewhere in the middle, you would have an intervention. I give that person a coupon, or I don’t know, I send a personal thank you card, or give a discount in some- somewhere.And then you can, uh, then you can do forward rollouts from that counterfactual. So what would have happened with that intervention or without the intervention? And you can even ch- change where that intervention, uh, in time can happen, right? Like some- where, where in this journey. So we, we do this at the Shopify scale for our merchants, and then if we notice that something that they can be fixing, like there’s a strong counterfactual, like we have Shopify policy, they basically get a notification like, “Hey, we think your...something is wrong with your-” I don’t know, Canadian sales. Like, uh, it looks like it’s misconfigured. Here’s what you need to do. Or do you think like, uh, you have to set up this campaign with these parameters? And we do that at the buyer level to literally offer discounts or cashback or, or things to buyers.So this is-- I’m getting very excited. Like this is my sort of area of, uh, interest, I guess, and, and hobby. But being able to m-model something complex as human beings or companies and model counterfactuals on it, where you can have interventions in the future and optimize when to make intervention, what kind inter-- uh, what kind of intervention to make.It’s such an unlock that previously was completely impossible. Like the-- it was, it was always dreamed of, but never... Like how would you even simulate it without LLMs or HTUs? I think very, very exciting times.[00:50:59] swyx: I just wanted to, uh, to maybe illustrate this. I, I’m not the best illustrator, but I, I am a conceptual statistics guy.And y-you know, you cannot just do this. Like this is a dimensionality AB test doesn’t do, right? Like, uh, because it doesn’t have the, the, the change over time, uh, stochastic nature, uh, and it doesn’t have the sort of contextual like... Here’s all the context to this point. Um, okay, cool. Um, that’s SimGym.You’re, you’re gonna burn a lot of tokens on this thing. But you’re, you’re one of the, the only scale platforms in the world that can, uh, that can do this across a huge variety of workloads, right? I’m even curious on a sort of human, uh, research level of like, well, do, does retail behave d-differently from like clothing sales?D-does that behave differently from electronic sales? I, I don’t know. I don’t know what else you guys... The Kardashian shoppers, do they differ from like people who buy, uh, I don’t know, cars and, uh, whatever.[00:51:55] Mikhail Parakhin: Well, very different, and different sensitivities and different modes of, uh, shopping and, and different levels of what’s important.Now, to-totally, you can do aggregations at, uh, at a store level. You can do aggregations at a different, uh, category level. I don’t know if, uh, you know, for our statisticians among us, I couldn’t believe, but we-- recently we’re looking at it, and we had to bring back, uh, CRPs, you know, Chinese restaurant process.It’s a, like, way of aggregating and, like, naturally grow clustering. So across... Specifically to answer questions that, uh, like you were just posing on how, how if, if buyers behave different categories. And I’m like, “I haven’t seen CRP since two thousand and one.” It’s[00:52:37] swyx: so What? It’s so- What is... No, I haven’t, I haven’t seen this.No. This is not in my training. Uh,[00:52:44] Mikhail Parakhin: but, but yeah, it, uh, uh, it actually, like the, the-- there was a very popular kind of theory, popular neurips HTML circles in early two thousands, uh, kind of nice. And now, now it has practical applications, uh- Yeah ... that we were resurrecting.[00:53:03] swyx: Yeah, amazing. Uh, I, I can see, I can see how this is like a, uh, a fun job for you where you get to apply all these things.Um, yeah, yeah, so super cool. Super cool. So, okay, so, so anyone who, who knows what CRPs are and has always wanted to use them at work, uh, they should, they should definitely join Shopify. Okay, so w-we have a lot and but I, I’m, I’m being mindful of the time. I, I do wanted to, to sort of cover some other things.Um, I-I’ll give you a choice, UCP or Liquid?[00:53:30] Mikhail Parakhin: Liquid. I think, I think on UCP, you know, like UCP is very important for us and, and it just we are-- UCP, we have a structured, uh, discussions, and you can read about them, and we have, uh, blog posts, and we have a big release this week, in fact, like with our catalog.Oh,[00:53:46] swyx: okay.[00:53:46] Mikhail Parakhin: Uh, yeah,[00:53:46] swyx: but- Le-I mean, we, we can, we can discuss the, the, the release briefly because we’ll release this after the-- after it’s already announced so whatever. There’s a catalog that you guys are doing?[00:53:55] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. So we are, we are- Okay ... we are bringing in capabilities of a whole, uh, Shopify catalog.Basically, you now you can search for products, you can do lookups by specific ID, you can do bulk lookups when you need to bring m-multiple products. You don’t need to know in ad-in advance what you’re trying to show or to sell or check out. Like, you can now, you can now have this decided at, at runtime, and this big area for investment for us for both non-personalized and personalized searches, trying to provide basically a win-window into whole universe of products that are being sold everywhere in the world.And Shopify is really not exactly, but almost like a super set of any-anything being sold. Now we are bringing it into UCP and, uh, and, uh, identity linking is another big thing for us, uh, so that you, you can use, uh, like Google or whatever, whatever identity you have, uh, they’re minimizing friction.[00:54:56] swyx: Yeah. So[00:54:57] Mikhail Parakhin: yeah, big release for us.But Liquid AI of course we never talk about, and the problem might be more, more aligned with what we d-discussed previously on this chat.[00:55:07] swyx: Sure. The main thing that everyone understands about Liquid is that it is inspired by Worm, and I still don’t know why. I’m curious on your explanation. I think you, you, uh, you can make things very approachable.And also I think like what is the potential of like the, the level of efficiency that you get out of Liquid?[00:55:23] Mikhail Parakhin: You- we all familiar with transformer architectures. And, uh, for the longest time, there was a competing architecture, it’s called the state space models. So, so Sams, uh, you know, Chris, Chris Reyes, one of the pioneers and, and lots of startups, uh, trying to make those realities.They have, uh, significant benefits being main being, uh, being much faster and, uh, lower footprint and not quadratic in length, you know, sort of, uh, linear in, in, uh, in your context length. But with state space models- They never quite made it. Like they’re used-- They have, uh, certain niches when they thrive, their hybrid architectures are useful, but they never quite made it.And liquid neural networks are, you can think of them as a next step, like, uh, sort of, uh, state-space model square. It’s non-transformer architecture that’s more complicated than sta-state space and really difficult to code if you-- if I’m being honest. But it’s, um, very efficient. It’s, uh, subline-- sub, uh, quadratic in, in length of your context.Uh, it’s very compact way to represent things, and that’s a liquid AI company. They... Their goal is to productize it, and very often you have this need, uh, when you need to have long context and small model, and you want to have low latency. Like in general, it’s basically on par with transformers, and if you do hybrids with transformers, it’s, it’s even better.That’s why we at Shopify, when we tried multiple and we constantly try multiple models, multiple companies, we found that for small, particularly with low latency applications, when you have low latency and/or if you need longer context lengths, liquid was the best. And so we still use the whole zoo and always like obviously test and use everything, uh, every open source model and, you know, it feels like sometimes even every private model.Uh, but liquid’s been taking quite a bit of, uh, at least internal Shopify share. And the reason I’m excited is, yeah, because it’s, it’s the only non-transformer architecture that I found being genuinely competitive. Uh, and, uh, you know, for we use it for search and for, for long context, uh, pulse distilling and others.This is the overview. I don’t know how approachable Sha, sorry. Maybe, maybe still too obtuse.[00:57:51] swyx: I, I mean, I think they haven’t been that open about their implementation details. I think the... I would say like liquid hasn’t been like if there’s a lot of technical detail published, I haven’t read like a, a formal sort of paper on the implementation details.Uh, but I, I did get the sort of relationship between the SSMs and the others. This is one of the sort of, uh, charts that was, you know, showing the relationship between like full attention versus Something that’s, uh, more like a RNN type in terms of their, their efficiency. Um, and then the, the other chart was this old one, uh, where it compares versus, uh, some of the other models.Uh, doesn’t exactly have the correct Y-axis, but close enough where you can see like it’s basically a, a step change difference in terms of the efficiency. I think the surprise to me was that you guys are, uh, actively using it already in internally inside of Shopify. And like I, I’m curious, like what are the constraints that you’re optimizing for, right?Is it when you say smaller, is it like the 1B size? Uh, what kind of like latency constraint are you, are you optimizing for? What kind of context length, um, sort of considerations, right? Like I think for example, right, like in the audio kind, kind of use cases, the SSMs ef-effectively have unbounded context length because they, they just have to operate on like the most, the sliding window of the most recent stuff.Uh, I’m just kinda curious, like w-what do you see the potential here?[00:59:13] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. The SSMs are effectively because, yeah, because the state embeds all the, all the previous information needed, or that’s the assumption. SSMs effectively have infinite context length. The, the problem with, uh, with them is that expressiveness is not there.The, uh, uh, Liquids are effectively souped up SSMs. We are much more expressive, m-uh, com-more complicated again to code. There is, there is a paper on it. You can, you can see it. Differential equation rolled out and, and then computed as a, uh, as really as a convolution. It’s a bit involved. The thing where we, we use it is specifically either for where we need super low latency, and we’re-- there was a lot of very fun project with, uh, Santa ML and Liquid AI themselves.We run it at, uh, thirty milliseconds, a, a tiny model, like three hundred million parameters in, but we run it in thirty milliseconds, uh, end to end for search when you, when you type a query, and then we produce all the possible things what you, what you can mean by that query and some, you know, uh, not only synonyms, but, but, uh, a que-kind of full query understanding the, the whole tree of what you might need and including your personal personalization because you might have done like previous queries and lowering it all down into the search server so that the requirements on latency obviously they are very, uh, very strict.So, so then we are able to run it under thirty milliseconds because, ‘cause at Liquid, you know, Qwen doesn’t run on this. And even Liquid, we had to work a lot with NVIDIA and to... because almost everything is not designed in CUDA for or in, in the current stack for, for low latency. Like small things that don’t matter with large models, you know, start mattering a lot, and we had to optimize it.There is different end of the spectrum where this is maximum through, uh, bandwidth throughput for things like, for example, offline categorization when A new product appears. We need to do analysis. We need to assign where it is in taxonomy. We need to extract and normalize attributes. We need to do, uh, you know, clusters like, oh, it’s the same thing as that other merchant is selling, right?That is like un-- like almost unbounded, uh, amount of energy you need to spend on it because it’s, uh, you know, it’s quadratic kind of, uh, problem, and we have billions and billions of products. So you don’t care about latency as much. You know, it’s kind of an overnight batch job, but you, you want to maximum throughput.And you usually in those cases, you also sometimes like for, uh, Sidekick Pulse, you also need long context. These are... We are talking models in maybe seven, eight billion, uh, parameter range, uh, where we would, we would take a large model, like we would take something huge, largest we can, we can find. We would distill into liquid for a specific task, such as, for example, for our catalog, uh, formulation or for, for Pulse.And then we run it at a very large scale, like in batch jobs. Because just running... And, and it beats in that situation beat very often beats, uh, Qwen or, yeah, Kimi is more on the reasoning side. So Qwen, Qwen I would say is probably their major alternative. That’s when we use it. I mean, not a, not a panacea, not, not really, uh, I wouldn’t say that it’s frontier model in the sense of it’s not gonna suddenly compete with, uh, GPT 5.4.Uh, but, but, uh, uh, it is a phenomenal target for distillation, which is right now becoming more and more important with, uh, explosion of token usage.[01:03:00] swyx: Is that a, a now only thing or do you think you give Liquid a hundred billion dollars and they will do... Is it, is it just more scale or like what, what is limiting it?You know, what prevents it from running into the same issues that SSMs had?[01:03:14] Mikhail Parakhin: Their scale is already much larger than the largest SSM I, I’m aware of. Uh, uh- Wow, okay. So yeah. So, uh, SSM was just, was just not expressive enough or in my opinion. Like, um, again, I’m sure I’ve-- I’ll get a lot of pushback and probably accurately so.But in my opinion, SSMs are not expressive enough and, uh, liquid models are. I think, uh, especially in their hybrid form when with combined with the transformer, like in Mamba fashion, they probably the best architecture I’m aware of like period. But of course, Liquid AI is not at the scale of, uh, you know, Anthropic or, or Google or OpenAI in terms of compute.So I don’t think, uh, they... I think if, if they, uh, if they had similar level of compute, they, they would be very competitive and maybe even beat the, uh, the largest models, at least from what I’ve seen. They don’t have, uh, this level of, uh, investment But they still have decent investment and, and it’s, uh, it’s, uh, definitely for this scenario of smaller models and distilling into their second to none very often.We are very omnivorous, and we’re on purely merit-based. So the moment they will start being competitive, we’re like, we will switch to something else, and we constantly test. But, but so far, if you see progression, if I draw a graph of our workloads on Liquid versus our workloads on, I would say Qwen, which is another awesome model and probably, uh, another kind of standard within Shopfy, I would say, uh, Liquid’s been definitely taking share[01:04:48] swyx: I think that’s very promising and probably the best explanation I’ve heard, uh, directly from, from someone involved in Liquid.Um, I, I do have Maxime Lebon coming to, uh, my conference in London, uh, this week, so I, um, we’ll- Oh, that’s great ... hear more from him. I-- ‘cause, uh, there was this, like Liquid, uh, investor day or something like a, a year or, or a year and a half ago, and I, I think there just wasn’t that much technical detail that I think was, was sort of speaking to my crowd of like potential customers and users, right?Which like, yeah, it’s fine. Like, you know, maybe, maybe, uh, there, uh, we, we still need to wait for more results that come out, uh, before, before this. But I think it would be news to a lot of people that you guys are actually actively already using it for high-frequency use cases. I also wanted to highlight Psychic Pulse, which, uh, we didn’t cover, and we probably don’t have time to cover, but it’s something that you also launched, uh, recently.Basically REXIS, um, but also something that like I’ve-- the, the other REXIS trend I’ve been c- I’ve been covering a lot, uh, from like the YouTube side, even xAI’s, uh, REXIS has been LLM-based REXIS, right? Uh, which I think you are also effectively using liquid models for, but they are just throwing transformers at, at the problem.And maybe this is, uh, eh, the sort of hybrid architecture shift that will happen in order to accommodate the kind of long context and, and lo- and high efficiency that, that you need. I don’t really have a strong opinion there, like apart from I would highlight to anyone the, the, the work that the LLM base-- LLM-based REXIS community is doing is, is also very interesting there.[01:06:22] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. The-- again, the thing to get you excited is that it’s not just LLMs looking at things, it’s also HSTU model doing that counterfactual analysis- Yeah ... where we model the whole, uh, enterprise as an entity and, and its actions and then see what, what will, what will happen.[01:06:39] swyx: Overall, I think it, it pre-- this all presents like, uh, an enormous like...I think, uh, you know, uh, there, there was not that deep of a AI story to Shopify when it started. Uh, it was just a WordPress plugin, right? But now, you know, you are the sh- the, the storefronts, uh, e-commerce, you know, uh, guardians to s- like so many, so many people, and you’re, you’re really like applying all the AI, uh, methods and the state-of-the-art stuff.Uh, so like I, I think, you know, our conversation like today has like really, uh, oh, I guess opened my eyes to a lot. So thank you for doing this. Uh, this is a really amazing, um, overview of, uh, what you’re doing.[01:07:15] Mikhail Parakhin: Okay. Thank you for saying that, Shawn, and, uh, thank you for having me. Of course, it’s always a pleasure to talk to people who, you know, deeply technical and know what they’re talking about.[01:07:25] swyx: Yeah. I mean, uh, very few people are as technical as you but at least I can, I, I can like somewhat fo-- uh, vaguely follow along. Yeah. So, so, okay, um, there, there is a hi- there’s a hiring call, uh, you know, uh, any, any particular roles that you’re looking for that you’re like, “Okay, if you know the-- how to solve, um, this problem, uh, reach out”?[01:07:45] Mikhail Parakhin: Yeah. Uh, the, the things I would definitely call out that if you’re an ML person or if you’re data science person and, uh, uh, we, we, we have huge need for more, more people munching data, so to speak. Or surprisingly, if you’re a distributed database person and, uh, uh, you know, we, we think that there is a way to use LLMs to reimagine how we do distributed databases, and we’re working a lot with Yugabyte there.And so if you’re-- have interest in those areas, we’ve-- like ShortFi might be the best place in the world for you. That’s pretty good place for other, you know, other disciplines as well.[01:08:24] swyx: Cool. Um, I think that that was all the questions I had. I said I, I have one sort of a bonus thing if you, if you wanna indulge in, uh, some Bing history.What is your, uh, I guess, takeaways or any, any fun anecdotes about Sydney?[01:08:38] Mikhail Parakhin: Any fun anecdotes about Sydney? Well-[01:08:41] swyx: Yeah, it was a very interesting, you know-- I, I think it, like, woke up people to, like, this personality that, that, that it w-- emerged.[01:08:48] Mikhail Parakhin: The, the funny thing, like, I mean, the, the most interesting anecdote is that Sydney was first shipped, uh, in India for, uh-- and, uh, it was, uh, not noticed for a long time.And first implementation of Sydney didn’t even have OpenAI model under it. It was, it was, uh, Turing Megatron, um, Microsoft, uh, and NVIDIA collaboration model. Uh, and there were, uh, yeah, exactly. That’s, that’s the, that’s the one people thought it was a prank, uh, because it was, like, not many people were familiar with the LLMs at, at that point yet, and thought like, “That cannot be automatic.You, you must have, uh, you know, people thinking.” And then even they were complaining that, “Oh, the-- my-- this, this chatbot is gaslighting me.” And then, then people like what, what almost everybody doesn’t fully realize is that it wasn’t by accident that, uh, Sydney was Sydney. I mean, we spent a lot, a lot of effort on personality shaping.Uh, we-- I mean, it, it was a bit of my Yandex legacy, where previously we did this Alice, uh, uh, digital assistant, uh, which we learned the- Chatbot, yeah ... yeah. We, we learned the importance of, uh, personality shaping, and so here we brought, did a lot of personality shaping. Uh, so it was not fully an emerging scenario.It was, it was also a little bit edgy. What, what we learned in, in those experiments is you want to be polite, but you want to be a little bit on edge, and that draws people in. I haven’t seen, ever since the, uh, kind of those days, I haven’t seen anybody trying exactly that mode. I think we will see, we will see more of this at some point, but, uh, yeah.A lot, lots of good memories, you know. And by the way, the very first Sydney dev lead Is, uh, uh, Andrew McNamara is working in ShopFind, uh, and the head of Sidekick and, and our-- and the Pulse- Oh. And lots of these are actually, yeah, in his pur-purview.[01:10:53] swyx: Oh, okay. Uh, I-- That, that’s another fun fact. You’re, you’re- Yeahassembling the team again. Yeah. Yeah, it’s cool. Like, I think a lot of, uh, people woke up to the, the idea of AI personality for the first time there. And, like, I think now with maybe OpenClaw, like explicitly prompting a, a fun personality, I think that, that is a real selling point for, for people, right? And then I, I guess maybe the only other time that it’s like really emerged into public consciousness is Go to Gate Clawed.But yeah, I think, uh, you know, hopefully someday we’ll get Shopify Sydney.[01:11:23] Mikhail Parakhin: Well, we have Sidekick. It’s a- Yeah ... it’s a different, different thing a little bit. Yeah.[01:11:28] swyx: Yeah. Si-Sidekick was like your, your original big launch for, for AI stuff. Uh, yeah, cool. Uh, amazing. Uh, thank you so much. You guys do amazing work.Uh, honestly, if I was a Shopify customer, Shopify investor, um, hearing all the work that you guys are doing o-on this technical side, it, like, m-makes me feel more confident in like, okay, just choose Shopify, right? Like, like you’re never gonna do this in-house, which is obviously what you want. But like, uh, yeah, I mean, like, that-that’s, that’s what an ideal platform is, like, that you’re doing all the things that no individual could do at their scale, but you can at your scale.Uh, very exciting problems.[01:12:01] Mikhail Parakhin: Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. And creating network effect and hard to disagree. If you’re not using Shopify, you should.[01:12:09] swyx: Yeah, amazing. Okay, well, that’s it. Thank you so much. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• 🔬 Training Transformers to solve 95% failure rate of Cancer Trials — Ron Alfa & Daniel Bear, Noetik 20.04.2026 1h 25min

  Today, we explain this piece of “clickbait” from our guest!TL;DR: 95% of cancer treatments fail to pass clinical trials, but it may be a matching problem — if we better understood what patients have which tumors which will respond to which treatments, success rates improve dramatically and millions of lives can be saved — with the treatments we ALREADY have.See our full episode dropping today:Why Big Pharma is licensing AI ModelsTolstoy famously wrote, ‘All healthy cells are alike; each cancer cell is unhappy in its own way.’ Or something like that. Cancer might be the most misunderstood disease out there. It’s not one disease, it’s a family of diseases. Hundreds, maybe thousands, of unique diseases each with its own underlying biology. With this lens, saying you’ll “cure cancer” is like saying you’ll solve legos.We keep hearing AI will cure cancer, but sadly it may not be so easy. Today’s guests — Ron Alfa and Daniel Bear from Noetik — thinks they can use AI to break through a core bottleneck in the treatment development process.GSK recently signed a $50M deal for their technology that also includes an (undisclosed) long-term licensing deals for Noetik’s models like the recently announced TARIO-2, an autoregressive transformer trained on one of the largest sets of tumor spatial transcriptomics datasets in the world. Whole-plex spatial transcriptomics is the richest way to read a tumor, and approximately ~0% of cancer patients going through standard care ever get one — and TARIO-2 can now predict an ~19,000-gene spatial map from the H&E assay every patient already has. Most big AI plays in BioTech have focused on discovery, and usually result in an in-house development effort (meaning tools companies usually become drug companies). This deal stands out in that it is a software licensing deal, and represents a commitment to a platform rather than a drug. With attention on other software tools for drug development (see the Boltz episode and Isomorphic for example), it is starting to look like the appetite of Pharma for biotech tools has finally started to grow. Why the sudden interest?Cancer is hardBiology is hard, cancer is harder. But despite this, we’ve made incredible progress. So many cancers that would have been death sentences twenty years ago are routinely survivable. It used to be our main strategy was just chemotherapy — poison you and hope the tumor dies before you do. Now, there are many treatments that actually kill a tumor and leave the rest of you intact! Immune checkpoint inhibitors like Keytruda and Opdivo target the defenses of dozens of tumor types. CAR-T therapy adds modified T-cells to your blood that can target B-cell malignancies very accurately. Antibody Drug Conjugates such as Trastuzumab combine a drug with an antibody, allowing it to target very specific (cancer) cells. We truly live in marvelous times.With that said, we still have a long way to go. For every type of cancer with a miracle treatment, we have many more that are still death sentences. The world spends $20-30 billion a year trying to cure cancers, with hundreds of clinical trials yearly.Yet, progress is slow with a 95% failure rate in clinical trials.The lab doesn’t translate to the clinicAre we leaving something on the table? Enter Noetik and Ron Alfa. Ron’s core thesis is that many of these “failed” treatments actually work! But we’re not looking at the right patients with the right tumors. If only we had a way to really understand the unique types of cancer biologies and which patients will respond to which treatments, we might be able to show a much higher success rate. Millions of lives (and billions of dollars) may ride on this.The Hard part: Blind Faith in Data CollectionRon and Noetik had the conviction to spend almost two years just collecting data. Lots, and lots, and lots, of data. Noetik has acquired thousands of actual human tumors, and collects a large multimodal dataset of hundreds of millions of images that allows them to create a detailed map of the cell makeup in the local environment. These are real human tumors, not frankenstein mouse models or immortal cell lines.This data is then fed into a massive self-supervised model, creating a “virtual cell”. This model has a deep understanding of cancer biology — Noetik has worked carefully to show it can distinguish different types of tumors. Maybe even tumors we didn’t identify as distinct previously! More recently they figured out how to scale up their model and data, and see no limit in their scaling laws!Noetik’s models can simulate how a patient will respond to experimental treatments. They are working with partners to test promising drugs that were demonstrated to be safe, but not effective. If these models work as hoped, Noetik will bring new cancer treatments to patients without developing a new drug! Their models will also guide the discovery process towards drugs that are more likely to make it through clinical trials. You can imagine why this is so attractive to GSK.We’ll see…Ron and Dan make pretty persuasive arguments that their models will truly assist in cohort selection in useful ways and this seems valuable. And we think it’s pretty clear that* Translation from lab to clinic is the biggest bottleneck for drug development.* Better cohort selection using biomarkers is likely to improve translation from lab to clinic.Noetik has already had some success here. We’ll see if they’re able to translate that into a reliable advantage.Stepping back a bit from the technology, curing cancer is a pretty unambiguously positive application of AI. It is also a very hard problem to solve. Our guess is that most people have been impacted by cancer or will be at some point soon. And we hope that learning about the amazing work that companies like Noetik are doing will inspire a generation of AI engineers to work on the hardest and most exciting problems that society faces.Full Video Pod: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Notion’s Token Town: 5 Rebuilds, 100+ Tools, MCP vs CLIs and the Software Factory Future — Simon Last & Sarah Sachs of Notion 15.04.2026 1h 17min

  For all those who missed out on London, see you in Miami next week!Notion, the knowledge work decacorn, has been building AI tooling since before ChatGPT, with many hits from Q&A in 2023 and unified AI in 2024 and Meeting Notes in 2025. At the end of their last Make user conference, Ryan Nystrom teased Notion 3.0’s Custom Agents - and they are finally embracing the Agent Lab playbook!Sarah Sachs and Simon Last of Notion join us for a deep dive into how Notion built Custom Agents, why it took years and multiple rebuilds to get right, and what it means to turn a productivity tool into an agent-native system of record for enterprise work.We go inside the product, engineering, evals, pricing, and org design decisions behind one of the most ambitious AI product efforts in software today — from early failed tool-calling experiments in 2022 to agent harnesses, progressive tool disclosure, meeting notes as data capture, and the long-term vision for software factories and agentic work.We discuss:* Sarah and Simon’s path to launching Notion Custom Agents, and why the feature was rebuilt four or five times before it was ready for production* Why early agent attempts failed: no tool-calling standard, short context windows, unreliable models, and too much complexity exposed to the model* The “Agent Lab” thesis: not just wrapping a model, but understanding how people collaborate and building the right product system around frontier capabilities* How Notion thinks about roadmap timing: not swimming upstream against model limitations, but also building early enough that the product is ready when the models are* Why coding agents feel like the kernel of AGI, and how Notion is thinking about “software factories” made up of agents that spec, code, test, debug, review, and maintain codebases together* How Sarah runs AI engineering at Notion (“notes from Token Town”): objective-setting over idea ownership, low-ego teams comfortable deleting their own work, and a culture designed to swarm around fast-changing opportunities* The “Simon Vortex,” company hackathons, and why security gets pulled in early rather than late* How Notion organizes AI: core AI capabilities and infrastructure, product packaging teams, and a broader company mandate that every product surface must increasingly work for both humans and agents* Why prototypes have become much easier to build internally, and how “demos over memos” changes product development inside a tool the whole company already uses every day* Notion’s eval philosophy: regression tests, launch-quality evals, and “frontier/headroom” evals that intentionally only pass ~30% of the time so the company can see where model capabilities are going* What a “Model Behavior Engineer” is, and why Notion treats eval writing, failure analysis, and model understanding as a distinct function rather than just software engineering* The changing role of software engineers in the age of coding agents, and why the new job looks less like typing code and more like supervising a rigorous outer system of agents, PRs, and verification loops* How the “software factory” should work: specs, self-verification, bug flows, subagents, and minimizing human intervention while preserving the invariants that matter* A live walkthrough of a Notion Custom Agent handling coworking space tenant applications by triaging email, enriching applicants with web search, and writing structured data into a Notion database* How agents compose inside Notion: shared databases as primitives, agents invoking other agents, “manager agents” supervising dozens of specialized agents, and memory implemented simply as pages and databases* Notion’s take on MCP vs CLI: why Simon is bullish on CLI’s self-debugging nature, where MCP still makes sense, and how Sarah thinks about capability, determinism, permissioning, and pricing alignment* The evolution of Notion’s internal agent harness: from early JavaScript coding agents, to custom XML, to Markdown and SQL-like abstractions, to tool definitions, progressive disclosure, and a much shorter system prompt* Why Notion cares about teaching “the top of the class,” building for sophisticated operators rather than abstracting away too much capability for everyone* How agent setup works today: agents that can configure themselves, inspect their own failures, and edit their own instructions — with guardrails around permissions* How Notion prices Custom Agents: credits as an abstraction over tokens, model type, serving tier, web search, and future sandbox costs; why usage-based pricing was necessary; and how “auto” tries to match the right model to the right task* Why Notion is not eager to train a foundation model, where they do fine-tune and optimize today, and why retrieval/ranking is one of the most important investment areas as more searches come from agents rather than humans* Why Meeting Notes became one of Notion’s strongest growth loops: not just as transcription, but as high-signal data capture that powers search, custom agents, follow-up workflows, and the broader system of record for company collaboration* Why Notion is more interested in being the place where collaboration data lives than in building hardware themselves — and how wearables or other capture devices may eventually feed into that systemSarah SachsLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarahmsachsX: https://x.com/sarahmsachsSimon LastLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-last-41404140X: https://x.com/simonlastFull Video EpisodeTimestamps* 00:00:00 Introduction and launching Notion Custom Agents* 00:01:17 Why Notion rebuilt agents four or five times* 00:03:35 Building for where models are going, not just where they are* 00:05:32 The Agent Lab thesis, wrappers, and product intuition* 00:08:07 User journeys, leadership, and low-ego AI teams* 00:13:16 The Simon Vortex, hackathons, and bringing security in early* 00:16:39 Team structure, demos over memos, and building for agents* 00:20:25 Evals, Notion’s Last Exam, and the Model Behavior Engineer role* 00:27:37 Evals as an agent harness and the changing role of software engineers* 00:30:42 The software factory: specs, verification, and agent workflows* 00:32:18 Live demo: a custom agent for coworking space applications* 00:35:08 Composing agents, manager agents, and memory as pages* 00:38:15 Notion Mail, Gmail, native integrations, and tools* 00:39:43 MCP vs CLI and the cost of capability* 00:44:13 When Notion uses MCP vs building its own integrations* 00:47:43 The history of Notion’s agent harness rebuilds* 00:55:35 Power users, public tools, and the setup agent* 00:58:01 Self-fixing agents, permissions, and “flippy”* 01:01:13 Pricing, credits, and choosing the right model automatically* 01:09:01 Why Notion isn’t training its own frontier model* 01:14:07 Retrieval, ranking, and search built for agents* 01:17:27 Meeting Notes as data capture and workflow automation* 01:21:18 Wearables, hardware, and Notion as the system of record* 01:23:45 OutroTranscript[00:00:00] Alessio: Hey everyone. Welcome to the Latent Space podcast. This is Alessio founder of Kernel Labs and I’m joined by swyx, editor of the Latent Space.[00:00:11] swyx: Hello. Hello. We’re back in the beautiful studio that, uh, Alessio has set up for us with Simon and Sarah from Notion. Welcome.[00:00:18] Sarah Sachs: Thanks for having us.[00:00:19] Alessio: Thanks for having us. Yeah.[00:00:20] swyx: Congrats on the launch recently the custom agents, finally it’s here. How’s it feel?[00:00:26] Sarah Sachs: We ship things slowly. So it had been in Alpha for a little bit and at the point at which is it’s an alpha, um, there’s a group of people that are making sure it’s ready for prod, and then there’s a group of people working on the next thing.So sometimes some of these launches are a bit delayed satisfaction, so it’s quite nice to remind yourself all the work you did because we do have a habit of like. Being two or three milestones ahead. Uh, just ‘cause you have to be, you know, you can’t get complacent. Um, but it’s been great that people understood how this is helpful.And I think that’s just easier in general building AI tools today than it was two, three years ago. People kind of get it and so that user education, um, there’s just, it was our most successful launch in terms of free trials and converting people and things like that. It was really successful, so yeah.But there’s a lot to build.[00:01:12] swyx: Making it free for three months helps.[00:01:16] Sarah Sachs: Yep.[00:01:17] Simon Last: It was definitely super exciting for me because it’s probably the fourth or fifth time that we rebuilt that.[00:01:22] swyx: Yes.[00:01:23] Simon Last: And I mean,[00:01:24] swyx: you’ve been building this since like 20, 22.[00:01:26] Simon Last: Yeah, I mean, like, it was even right when we got access to like GPT four in late 20 22, 1 of the first ideas we had is like, oh, okay, let’s make an agent that I, we used the word assistant at the time, there wasn’t really the word, the word agent yet, but, oh, we’ll give an access to all the tools the notion can do, and then it, we run in the background like, like do work for us.And then we just tried that many times and it just. Was too early. Um,[00:01:48] swyx: I need to force you to like double click on that. What is too early? What didn’t work?[00:01:52] Sarah Sachs: We were fine to, like, before function calling came out. We were trying to fine tune with the Frontier Labs and with fireworks, like a function calling model on notion functions.This is right when I joined. I joined because, um, we needed a manager as Simon was needed to be able to go on vacation. So, uh, that’s, that’s around when I joined, so you can speak much more to it.[00:02:11] Simon Last: Yeah, we did partnerships with both philanthropic and open AI at different times, uh, to try to, at the time the, I mean, when we first tried, there wasn’t even a constant of like tools yet.We, we sort of designed our own like, like tool calling framework and then we tried to fine tune the models to, uh, to use it over multiple turns. Um, and because it, it didn’t work well out the box, I think. Yeah. The models are just too dumb and the context thing was also way too short.[00:02:37] Alsesio: Yeah.[00:02:37] Simon Last: Um, and yeah, we just kind of banged our head against it for a long time.Uh, unfortunately it was always like, there was always like sort of. Glimmers that it was working, but um, it never felt quite robust enough to be like a useful, delightful thing. Um, until I would say, uh, the big unlock was probably like Sonic 3.6 or seven, uh, early last year. And that’s when we started working on our agent, which we shipped last year.Um, and then, and then uh, uh, custom agents, kinda a similar capability and that, that one just took longer because we, we just wanted to get the reliability up a lot higher. ‘cause it’s actually running in the background.[00:03:14] Sarah Sachs: And the product interface of like permissions and understanding, you know, this custom agent is shared in a Slack channel with X group of people and has access to documents that are surfaced to Y group of people.And the intersect experts, Y might not be whole. And so how do you build the product around making sure administrators understand that permissioning took multiple swings.[00:03:35] Alsesio: Everything is hard back at the end of the day. Yeah. I’m curious, like when the models are not working, how do you inform the product roadmap of like, okay, we should probably build, expecting the models to be better at some reasonable pace, but at the same time we need to, you know, you had a lot of customers in 2022.It’s not like you were a new company or like no user base.[00:03:54] Simon Last: Yeah, I mean I think there’s always the balance of, you know, like you want to be a GI pilled and thinking ahead and building for where things are going. Uh, but also you wanna be like shipping useful things. And so we always try to like, like keep a balance there.You know, we. We try to take clear, like a portfolio approach. You know, we’re always working on multiple projects and, and we’re always trying to work on, you know, maintaining things where that have already shipped, like, like shipping new things that are like eminently working well and make them really good.And, and then we wanna always have a few projects that are a little bit crazy. Um,[00:04:23] Alsesio: and what are the a GI peel projects that you have today? I’m curious about, uh, you don’t have to share exactly what you’re working on, but I’m curious what are things today that maybe in 18 months people will be like, oh, obviously this was gonna work[00:04:35] Sarah Sachs: 18 months.[00:04:37] Alsesio: Yeah, 18 months is, you know,[00:04:37] Sarah Sachs: it’s a long time and Yeah. Yeah.[00:04:39] Simon Last: I mean, there’s a number of things happening. I think one thing that’s becoming more clear is I think like, like, uh, coding agents are the kernel of EGI, sort of, everything is a coding agent. Mm-hmm. I think that’s, that’s sort of one, one direction.Um, and then, yeah, the exciting thing about that is sort of your agent can sort of bootstrap its own software and capabilities and actually debug and maintain them. And so yeah, we’re, we’re, we’re thinking a lot about that. And then, yeah, like, like another category of things that I’m, I’m really excited about is like, uh, we call the software factory also.People are using this, uh, this, this sort of word. Um, basically it just means can you create sort of like a, as automated as possible, a workflow for developing debugging. Mm-hmm. Merging, reviewing, and maintaining a code base and a service where there’s a bunch of agents working together inside, and like, like how does that work?[00:05:28] Sarah Sachs: If you think back to your initial question, like, why did this take so long? I think something,[00:05:32] swyx: I didn’t say that, but Yes. Okay. Go ahead.[00:05:34] Sarah Sachs: Why, what, what changed over the three and half years of trying[00:05:37] swyx: it? Exactly. Right. Because most people always say like, it didn’t work yet. Then reasoning models came, then it worked.I was like, okay, let’s go a little[00:05:43] Sarah Sachs: bit. That’s, I mean, that’s part of it, but I think the other part of it that I actually think is really what will set notion apart for every new capability is we have like. Two skills that are crucial when it comes to frontier capabilities. One is not letting yourself swim upstream.So like quickly realizing if you’re just pressing against model capabilities versus not exposing the model to the right information, not having the right infrastructure set up. That and of itself is the skill of intuition. And the second is to see, okay, you’re not swimming upstream. Which direction is the river flowing and what is like, how do we think ahead about the product and start building it even if it’s not great yet, so that when it is there, we’re ready for it.Right? And like those can sometimes feel like counterintuitive things. Like we can be trying to fine tune a tool calling model when they don’t exist yet. And that the trick is to not do that for too long, but realize that there was something there. And we’ve had a lot of things which like, um, we’re just like not swimming in the right direction with the streams.I think we had multiple versions of transcription before we got meeting notes, right? Oh, I gotta talk[00:06:39] swyx: about that. Yeah.[00:06:40] Sarah Sachs: Yeah. Um, and so. I, I, I think that like we, we really closely partner with the Frontier Labs on capabilities and we also have to have strong conviction on, as those capabilities move.Notion is about being the best place for you to collaborate and do your work. And how does that narrative change if the way that we work changes?Yeah.[00:06:58] swyx: Yeah. You told me you were a fan of the Agent Lab thesis, and this is, this is kind of it, right?[00:07:02] Sarah Sachs: Right. I show that thesis to so many candidates. Like I have it as like micro chrome autofill.Um, at this point, like it’s one of my most visitations[00:07:10] swyx: because like, is this the, here’s why you should work in notion and not open, open eye. I, it’s like,[00:07:14] Sarah Sachs: here’s, here’s what’s different about it.[00:07:16] swyx: Yeah.[00:07:16] Sarah Sachs: And here’s why. It’s not just a rapper. I actually think more and more people understand it’s not just a wrapper.[00:07:21] swyx: Yeah.[00:07:22] Sarah Sachs: Um, and by the way, like in the beginning, parts of what we build are wrappers on functionality. That works well, of course, but that’s not really the most, um. I would say that’s not the product that, that drives revenue. And that’s not necessarily always what users need.[00:07:35] swyx: I mean, you know, notion is the AWS wrapper, but like the, the wrapper is very beautiful and like very, very well polished.So[00:07:40] Sarah Sachs: like the analogy,[00:07:41] swyx: like[00:07:42] Sarah Sachs: the analogy that I’ve been coming back to his Datadog in AWS[00:07:45] swyx: Yeah.[00:07:46] Sarah Sachs: So, uh, Datadog could not exist with, without cloud storage. Right. That it’s kind of fundamental that that works. Um, and AWS has like a CloudWatch product, but Datadog is an expert on understanding how people want observability on the products they launch.And we’re experts in understanding how people wanna collaborate, and that’s really where our expertise lies.[00:08:04] swyx: Totally.[00:08:04] Sarah Sachs: Um, regardless of the tools that we use,[00:08:07] Alsesio: I’m kind of curious how you think about implicit versus explicit expertise. I feel like Datadog is half and half implicit and explicit. It’s like they understand across markets and industries what engineering teams usually look for.With notion, it’s almost like more of the expertise is at the edge because you as a platform, you’re like so horizontal that the end user is not really the same. Mm-hmm. Like with Datadog, the end user is always like, yeah, an engineering lead, a kinda like SRE related person with notion. It can be anything.So I’m curious how you put that expertise into a product versus, you know, obviously it, WS cannot build notion. It’s, that doesn’t quite work in this case, but[00:08:44] Simon Last: it’s, it’s a little bit differently shaped. I think, you know, a classic vertical SaaS, like the data is kind of like that. They understand their individual customer very deeply.It’s kinda a narrow slice, um, notion has always been super horizontal. And our, our task has always been to sort of balance these two somewhat opposing forces of like, we’re listening to our customers and what they want us to build. It’s a broad slice. And then also we’re thinking about like, okay, how do we decompose what they want into, uh, nice primitives that are, that are really nice to use and we’ll, we’ll get us like as much bang for the buck as possible.And then, you know. Maintain the whole system, make it all like, like super clean and nice to use.[00:09:22] Sarah Sachs: We still have user journeys. I mean, we still focus on like core. I actually think the failure of our team is when we focus too much on what are cools that are, what are tools that are[00:09:31] Simon Last: mm-hmm.[00:09:31] Sarah Sachs: Cool tools. I actually think that’s when we make have the least velocity because you still need some sort of focus on a user journey.So like for instance, we’ll all sit down every Friday and look at the P 99 of like the most token exhaustive custom agent transcript and just look at why it didn’t do well and cut a bunch of tasks. Like we still focus on like, this has, like this should work. Email triaging should work. Mm-hmm. Right. And similarly, like when we’re talking about before building, um, chatting, um, before we started filming about, okay, how can I do PDF export?Well that’s functionality that then merits. Maybe we should build a tool that has access to a computer sandbox in a file system and the ability to write code. Right? Right. Um, but it’s because we’re thinking about the fact that our users to do their, to do their daily work, need to export PDFs, not because we’re like, Hmm, I think a computer tool could be cool.Like, let’s just see what happens. Mm-hmm. Like we, we have to focus on some user journeys, otherwise we just don’t have like, enough strategy to, to prioritize.[00:10:29] swyx: I think there’s a lot of like really strong opinions that you’ve had. Do you have like sort of like a towel of Sarah Sachs? Like, you know, like what, how do you run your team?Like I feel like you just have accumulated all these strong opinions. Obviously part, part of this is your, your token town thing.[00:10:43] Sarah Sachs: I think the TAs working with Service X is, um, you’d have to, it depends who you ask. Um, I think it depends if you’re on my team or a partner Right. Or a vendor.[00:10:54] swyx: Yeah. There other people want to run their teams the way that you’re Yeah.You’re like bringing these things. And then also similarly, uh, Simon, when you did the custom agents demo, you had like, well, we’ve been using custom agents and here’s the super long list of everything that we do. No humans ever read it. Right? That’s what you said. I was like,[00:11:07] Sarah Sachs: yeah. So I think for, for me, um, something that I learned very quickly and became very comfortable with was that my job was not to be the ideas per person or the technical expert.My job was to make it so that everybody understood the objective, had a resource to help prioritize what they should work on, and had an avenue to prioritize what they thought was important. And I think that’s true with all, all leadership, but I think especially on the AI team. Almost all of our best ideas come from prototypes, from people that have a cool idea because they saw a user problem, and it’s a huge disservice if all of those ideas have to pass, like the sniff test of what me and a product partner or Simon and Ivan decided were the direction, right?Because a lot of what we’re doing is leaning into capabilities, so. I think that’s the first thing is like, I don’t really view like the role of engineering leadership as like, uh, hierarchical, nor has it ever been, but especially now, like very willing to change direction based on, um, like proof is in the pudding.Yeah. And like, and I think we have rebuilt our harness three or four times. And when you do that, then the second rule of engineering leadership is like you need to build a team that’s comfortable deleting their own code and is very low ego and is driven by what’s best for the company. And, um, doesn’t write design docs because they think it’s their promotion packet.Right. And that’s a culture that notion had long before I joined, but like our willingness to just swarm on different problems and um, redo things that we’ve built before because something has changed. Like, there’s a lot of friction that can happen at companies when you do that. And it doesn’t happen at Notion.And because it doesn’t happen when new people join. Like they don’t wanna be the ones that are saying, we shouldn’t do this. I wrote that code. So then it’s, you know, you, you create a culture that everyone thoughts and that culture comes directly, I think from Simon and Ivan though, um, because they’re very open-minded.[00:12:50] swyx: Anything that you,[00:12:50] Simon Last: you’d add? I’m not a manager, like, like, like Sarah is. Um, a lot of my role is really to try to think a little bit ahead, make sure that we’re, we’re building on the right capabilities and then like the prototyping stuff. And yeah, it’s really, really critical to always just be starting again.It’s like, okay, this is new thing. What does this mean? What if we just rethought everything or wrote everything? And so I, I’m, I’m basically just doing that in a loop every six months.[00:13:16] swyx: Yeah. Do you believe in internal hackathons for this stuff?[00:13:19] Sarah Sachs: I think there’s like two different versions. So one is like, we just have a, a, a solid bench of senior engineers that come and go on what we call the Simon Vortex and Productionizing what we built, right?Because when you’re in the Simon Vortex, the velocity is super high. The direction changes daily, and it’s meant to be like the equivalent of a SC Works lab. We don’t need to do hackathons for that. We need to have senior engineers that we trust to come in and out of those projects. For instance, like management boundaries are really loose.Like you report to him, but you work for her right now. Yeah. That’s something that when we hire managers, it’s important they don’t care about because we tend to form more structures. Yeah. Don’t be too[00:13:54] swyx: territorial.[00:13:55] Sarah Sachs: We form more. It’s after we ship things, not not before, just historically. Um, the second thing is we do have companywide hackathons.Actually we just had our demos day for the hackathon we had last week this morning. That’s more for people that aren’t directly working on the project, feeling like they have the time to pause and learn how to make themselves more productive or how they would use notion custom agents to build something.Or part of the hackathon was actually encouraging everyone across the company to build their own agentic tool loop, calling from scratch. Follow like an every blog post on how to do what I think because we want[00:14:26] swyx: just with the compound engineering one. Yeah.[00:14:28] Sarah Sachs: We want everyone to use cloud code in the company or whatever the coding agent they please and understand that fundamental.So we set aside a day and a half. We’re all leadership, encourage everyone on their teams across the company to do it. So we have hackathons like that. I would say like kind of facetiously, like everything we build is a little bit like a hackathon until it graduates and puts on big boy pants and as a product ops rollout leader and has a assigned data scientists and stuff like that,[00:14:54] swyx: security review enterprise stuff,[00:14:56] Sarah Sachs: actually security reviews one of the things that we bring in first because it just slows us down way more and, um, causes a lot of tension and they build better product if they’re involved early.So, um, that is probably the first person to get involved in something that’s the[00:15:09] swyx: right PR approved answer.[00:15:10] Sarah Sachs: No, but it’s not just PR approved. It like, um, um, it’s[00:15:13] swyx: actually real. It’s actually real. It’s like, um, I’m just saying scar[00:15:15] Sarah Sachs: tissue.[00:15:15] swyx: Yeah,[00:15:16] Sarah Sachs: because like, you know, my background’s also, I worked at Robinhood for a number of years.Yes. So like, uh, compliance and things like that, um, are a little bit more, you learn the hard way when it doesn’t come naturally.[00:15:26] Simon Last: Yeah. I think the. The hackathon is really important for uplifting the general population, but like, if that’s the only way you can build new things, you’re kind of toast. I mean, it, it has to be like the daily processes, like, you know, building these new things.Um, and it has to be about, I think like, I think in the AI era a lot more leverage accumulates to the most curious and excited people. And so it’s like we’re all about just like activating that energy. You know, like if someone’s protesting something on the weekend that they’re excited about and it’s important, that should be the main thing that we’re doing.Yeah. Um, it’s not a hackathon that we schedule once a quarter, it’s just like, yeah. Daily process. Part of the culture.[00:16:02] Sarah Sachs: I mean, that’s how we shift image generation and notion now. It was always this thing that would be kind of nice to have, but it wasn’t really clear where that was necessarily aligned in product priorities.It’d be a lot of work. And we had someone on the database collections team, Jimmy, who was like. I really wanna do image generation for cover photos and inside notion. And we’re like, if you wanna build it, like it’s, do it please. Like we encourage you. We gave ‘em all the resources of working directly with Gemini and being able to like track the token usage and it working through endpoints.We gave them eval, support, everything, and then became a, a full project.[00:16:34] Alsesio: Yeah.[00:16:35] Sarah Sachs: That’s why you can’t have like ego as a, a leader. Like that’s, that’s how we work.[00:16:39] Alsesio: What’s the size of the team today, both engineering and overall?[00:16:43] Sarah Sachs: I manage, uh, the team. That’s what we’ll call it. Core AI capabilities and infrastructure.That’s about 50 people. But then we have per i partner teams that do packaging. So how it shows up in the corner chat versus custom agents versus meeting notes, that’s another 30, 40 people. And, and then every team that has a product service at Notion that a user can interface with owns the tool that the agent interfaces with the editor team.The team that did CRDT for offline mode is the same team that handles how two agents, um, edit competing blocks. Mm-hmm. Right? It’s the same problem. The team that built the underlying SQL engine is the same team that owns how the agent asks it to run a SQL query, and it does it performantly. And so from that regard, anyone working on product engineering is tasked with making them work for customers that are humans and agents because over time the majority of our traffic will be coming from agencies using in our interface, not humans.And so. Our objective is to make it so that the whole product org is building for agents.[00:17:40] Alsesio: Yeah. How has it changed internally? The activation bar is kind of lowered a lot. Like anybody can kind of create a prototype very, somewhat easily, especially if you’re like an existing code base. Have you raised the bar on like what type of prototype people need to bring forward to gonna be taken?Not like seriously, but like, you know what I[00:17:58] Simon Last: mean? Yeah. I think the bar is lowered in many ways. Be like, one thing our, uh, our team built that is really cool is our, uh, our, our design team made a whole separate GitHub repo, uh, called the, the design Playground. And it’s basically just to create a bunch of like, like helper components and you, uh, for, for quickly a throwing together UIs.And it’s become like actually quite sophisticated. Like it has like an agent in there and like, uh, that’s pretty fun. So like, we pretty much, like, they don’t do mocks, they just make like, like full, full prototypes.[00:18:27] swyx: Here it is. It works.[00:18:28] Simon Last: They give you like a u rl. They’re like, okay, all right. So we have to make the, like the real production version of that.Um, and then for engineers. A prototype looks like just making it a feature flag that actually works. Like that’s sort of the bar.[00:18:39] Sarah Sachs: Something to understand that’s really unique about notion. One of the reasons I joined we’re super lucky is no one uses Notion in their job as much as people that work at Notion.[00:18:46] Simon Last: Of course.[00:18:47] Sarah Sachs: So I think there’s very few companies, maybe if you worked on Chrome I guess, but like everything that we ship, we ship internally first and get a lot of really quick feedback. And also sometimes our dev instance is totally borked and you have to change a bunch of flags to get things done. And that’s kind of like, but everyone, so people that do it ticketing, people that do supply chain procurement, recruiting, everyone is using the same instance of notion with like a lot of flags on for these prototypes people build.Um, and so we have this, Brian Levin, one of the designers on our team, I think evangelize this concept of demos over memos.[00:19:18] swyx: Ooh, too[00:19:20] Sarah Sachs: good. Um, which has been, uh, very good for building demos, and I think it’s put a big pressure point on us to have really strong product conviction, because if anything can be demoed, you really need a strong filter of making sure that if you know, you’re doing X amount of work, you’re making the, you’re, you’re focusing on one tower, you’re not just building a really flat hill.Right. That’s actually where I think there has to be more conviction from our PMs, um, and our designers and, and well, the company really to have conviction of what journey we’re going on.[00:19:52] Simon Last: But overall, I feel like it works pretty well. Like people, almost all the engineers have good enough taste to realize that like, this prototype doesn’t actually make sense in the product, or, or it does.So it’s not that common that I would see a prototype. It’s like, oh, this makes no sense. Mm-hmm. It’s like, you know, people are doing reasonable things and, and, and then it’s just a matter of. Which things we build first and then often just, just figuring out how to turn it on and off. There’s our, in the, in our like experimental chat ui, there’s this, there’s probably like, like a hundred check boxes in there.[00:20:22] Sarah Sachs: Kills me[00:20:23] Simon Last: the things you could turn on and off.[00:20:25] Sarah Sachs: Uh, but I think that, okay, so that is kind of true, Simon, but like being the person that manages the evals team, like there is a level of intensity that it adds to the platform team. So, you know, if we’re gonna do image generation and notion, all of a sudden the way that we do attachments and the way that we, um, our LLM completion like cortex talks and expects tokens back and now it’s getting images back.Like there’s a lot of platform work that we do need to, like solidify a little bit. So sometimes it’ll be in dev for a couple weeks before it makes it to prod just because we still have to like, make it robust, make it HIPAA compliant, ZDR compliant, figure out the right contracting with the vendor, whatever it is.And we need to eval it because we want the team. To still maintain what they build. That’s the one thing is like if we have a bunch of prototypes, it can’t just be like a small group of people that then maintain whatever end prototypes. So we have invested a lot of people in an eval and model behavior understanding teams that, we call it agent dev velocity.So your dev velocity building agents can be faster if we invest in that platform. And so we have a whole org dedicated to Asian, um, platform velocity so that you can build your own eval and then maintain it once you ship it. So if a new model release comes out and we, every[00:21:38] swyx: team maintains their own eval,[00:21:40] Sarah Sachs: we maintain the eval framework.Every team owns their own evals and a lot of them we’ve integrated to Optin, to ci, or we run them nightly and we have a team, uh, a custom agent that triggers to a team to look at the major failures. That’s really critical because if we have like all these different surfaces now, a lot of it’s on the same agent harness, so it’s easier to maintain.It’s just packaging of different agent harnesses, but new functionality of the agent. Let’s say that like we wanna update like. Uh, you know, they deprecated, sonnet, um, four or whatever it is and we need to auto update. Are[00:22:11] swyx: they already? That’s so, okay. Yeah. Actually wasn’t that long ago.[00:22:14] Alsesio: Theywere[00:22:14] Alsesio: just 3.5.[00:22:15] Sarah Sachs: 3.537. Just got deprecated.[00:22:18] swyx: 3 7, 5 0.2 or, yeah. No,[00:22:20] Sarah Sachs: it’s not. 5.2 is five point. Five point no. Yeah, five four is 40% more expensive than five two. So if they deprecated five two, you would hear they can, you would hear from me about that one. Um, but, uh, another conversation to have.[00:22:35] swyx: I have a cheeky evals question for you.Have you noticed any secret degradation from any of the major model providers?[00:22:40] Sarah Sachs: Secret degradation,[00:22:42] swyx: like. During the War Bay, when it’s high traffic, it suddenly gets dumber.[00:22:47] Sarah Sachs: Yeah. I mean, not just between the, I mean, we definitely notice flakiness, we’ve definitely noticed, particularly for some providers, that things are slower during working hours and[00:22:57] swyx: there’s a latency argument.Yes. Not a quality argument.[00:22:59] Sarah Sachs: No. I think the quality difference that’s interesting is, um, even though companies that say they’re selling the same, a, it’s really into like quanti quantization, but like companies that say they’re selling the same model through different vendors, whether it be through first party or Bedrock, Azure, et cetera.We do see different qualities sometimes, and that’s not necessarily what’s advertised.[00:23:21] swyx: Yeah. Kidney went to the point of like, if we, they shipped like this, like eval across all the providers and it was like very obvious we were secret equalizing and it was very,[00:23:28] Sarah Sachs: yeah. But[00:23:29] swyx: that’s very embarrassing.[00:23:30] Sarah Sachs: You know, um, we hire Subprocess to figure that out for us.So we just wanna understand where it’s regressing or where it’s optimized. And sometimes we’re okay with regressions that optimize latency if they’re the appropriate regressions. Our job is to make sure we have the evals to understand the changes that are important to us. And even like when we’re partnering with labs on pre-releasees of models, they’ll send us multiple snapshots.And this is less about quantization, but more just regressions. Like they have shipped models that were not the snapshots that we wanted, and they have changed the snapshots that they shipped based on the feedback that we give. Because our feedback tends to be more enterprise work focused and not coding agent focused.And definitely those can be bummers, like, you know, uh, we know that this wasn’t the version you wanted, but we’ll help you make it work. I mean, we always make it work, but that definitely happens.[00:24:16] Alsesio: Yeah. Do you have, um, failing evals that you’re just hoping, oh, that will have success eventually when a good model comes out?[00:24:23] Sarah Sachs: Uh, I mean, yeah. So I think. I mean, I could talk about this for 60 minutes, so I will limit myself. I think it’s a real issue when people say evals and it’s just like, that’s quality, that’s like unit, I mean, it’s like saying testing. It’s not just unit tests, right? So. We have the equivalent of unit test.Regression test. Those live in ci, those have to pass a certain percent, you know, within some stochastic error rate. Then we have, as you’re building a product, evals of these aren’t passing right now, and this is launch quality. So we have a report card and we need to, on these categories, you know, be it 80 or 90% of all of these user journeys to launch, and then what we have what we call frontier or headroom evals, where we actively wanna be at 30% pass rate.And that’s actually been a effort that we took in partnership with philanthropic and OpenAI in the past maybe two or three months, because we actually hit a point where our evals were saturated and we weren’t able to really give insightful feedback other than it wasn’t worse. And not only is that not helpful for our partners, it’s not helpful for us to understand where the stream is going.You know, going back to that analogy. And so we spent a lot of time thinking about. What notions last exam looks like, right? Mm-hmm. Not just humanities, last exam. Ooh, notions last exam. Mm-hmm. And, um, there’s a lot of, you know, dreams about what that would look like. I know we’ve talked a lot about benchmarking, um, swix, but, uh, yeah.Notions last exam is a big thing inside the company and we have people, full-time staff to it exclusively. Mm. We have a data scientist, a model behavior engineer, and an full-time, um, evals engineer just dedicated to the evals that we pass 30% of the time.[00:25:56] swyx: What you’re hiring for[00:25:57] Sarah Sachs: MBEs? I am hiring[00:25:58] swyx: What is an MBEA[00:25:59] Sarah Sachs: model?Behavior Engineer Model. Behavior engineers started with a title data specialist before I joined when they were working with Simon on like, uh, Google Sheets and like Simon just needed someone to look through Google Sheets and say, yes, no, this looks bad. This looks good. Right? And so we hired people with kind of diverse linguistics background.We had like a linguistics PhD dropout. Mm-hmm. And a Stanford ate new grad. And they’re amazing. And they formed a new function basically. And over time we’ve built a whole team, um, with a manager who’s now kind of reinventing what that role is with coding agents. So they used to be kind of manually inspecting code.Now they’re primarily building agents that can write evals for themselves or LLM judges. There’s a really funny day I can send you the picture where Simon, about a year and a half ago, was teaching them how to use GitHub. Um, and they’re on the whiteboard and it was like, okay, I think it would be so much faster if our data specialists learned how to use GitHub and like learned how to commit these things in Dakota.And, and that was then and now I think, you know, coding has been a lot more accessible. Um, but moving forward it’s this mix of like data scientist PM and prompt engineer because there’s craft in understanding like even like what models can and can’t do things. How do we define like that headroom? How do we define like what a good journey is?Um, is this model better or not? Why is this failing? There’s some qualitative work, but then there’s also like a lot of instinct and taste to it, and that’s not necessarily software engineering. And so we have like very firm conviction and we have had for a number of years now that that is its own career path and we have always welcomed the misfits, so to speak.So we really firmly believe that you don’t need an engineering background to be the best at this job. And that’s what’s quite unique about this particular role.[00:27:37] Simon Last: Yeah, this is something that I’ve been pretty excited about recently is we made an effort basically to treat the eval system as like an agent harness.So if you think about it, like, you know, you should be able to have an agent end-to-end, download a dataset, run an eval, iterate on a failure, debug, and, and then implement a fix. And ultimately you should be able to, you know, drive the full time process with a human sort of observing the, you know, the outer uh, system.So yeah, we went, went pretty hard on that. And that’s, that’s worked extremely well so far. It’s like basically just to turn it into a coding agent, uh, uh, problem.[00:28:11] swyx: Your coding agent or just whatever[00:28:13] Simon Last: harness No coding agent. Yeah, code, cloud code. It should be totally general. Yeah. I think if it would be a mistake to like, like fix it on any, any particular coding agent.At the end of the day, it’s just like CLI tools.[00:28:21] Sarah Sachs: It’s like the same way that you would’ve a coding agent write the unit test. You should have a coding agent write the eval.[00:28:26] swyx: Yeah.[00:28:26] Sarah Sachs: But there’s a lot of supervision in that still. We just don’t believe that supervision has to come from software engineers because a lot of it is like, um, kind of you XREE and whatever, and these are the people that also triage failures and tell us where we should be investing next.[00:28:40] swyx: Yeah. I’m gonna go ahead and ask a spicy question. Is there a data, there are no software engineers at Notion.[00:28:46] Simon Last: Um,[00:28:46] Sarah Sachs: what does it mean to be a software engineer?[00:28:47] swyx: Exactly.[00:28:48] Simon Last: I mean, I think the way things are going is like we’re on some continuum where. If, if you look back three years ago, humans were typing all the code and then we had auto complete, you’re typing list of the code.Then we had sort of like filling agents, filling lines, and now we’re getting into like agents doing longer range tasks where you can debug and implement a fix and then verify it works and you know, get your, get your PR even like, like Merion deployed. I think we’re sort of just moving up the abstraction ladder and then the human role becomes more about observing and maintaining the outer system.There’s a string of agents flowing through, like me prs what’s going off the rails. Like what do I need to approve? Is there like a learning or memory mechanism that that works? So it’s kind of a hard engineering problem. There’s a, you know, there’s, there’s a lot to do there. I think we’re just sort of moving up stack[00:29:34] Sarah Sachs: the same transition machine learning engineers have made, right?Like I haven’t looked at a PR curve in a while.[00:29:39] swyx: Yeah. You used to do this stuff and now, um, auto research can do it,[00:29:42] Sarah Sachs: right? Like I think it depends on what you define as a software engineer.[00:29:46] swyx: Yes. It’s, that’s changing for sure.[00:29:49] Sarah Sachs: I think every software engineer in notion this summer went through like this, um, sheer, um, one of our engineering leads of the company called it, like every software engineer is going through the, the, uh, identity crisis that every manager goes through, where all of a sudden they realize their ability to write code is less important than their ability to delegate in context switch.And I think that is a transition out of being a software engineer. But[00:30:12] Simon Last: yeah. Yeah, there’s a critical difference to being a manager, which is that like, it is actually very deeply technical. The problem, you know, humans are very like, like, like fuzzy and you can’t like treat a team of humans like a, like a rigorous system where like, you know, prs like, like flow through and can be in like a block status and then what happens when they’re blocked, right.With a set of agents, you actually can do that. And, and, and I think it’s actually, there’s a lot of interesting technical rigor that that goes into that it’s like it’s a technical design problem. Ultimately.[00:30:42] Alsesio: What is the design of the software factory that you’re building?[00:30:46] Simon Last: Yeah, I mean, I think we’re. Trying a lot of different things.I mean, ultimately you want to design a system that requires as little human intervention as possible, but like still maintaining the in variance that, that you care about. So yeah, we’re exploring a lot different ideas there. I mean, I think I could talk about a few things I think are important there.Like, one thing I think is really important is, um, having some kind of like specification layer you can just commit marked on files. Mm-hmm. That works pretty well, but[00:31:15] swyx: it’s nice to be notion man. I’m just saying like the spec, like Yeah. The natural home for specs is notion.[00:31:21] Simon Last: Yeah. Right. It can be a database of pages.Yeah. I mean, it needs to be something that is, you know, human readable and I viewable and I think that’s pretty key. Another really key component is like the, the self verification loop. Yes. You need really, really good testing layers, basically. And that’s a really deep, uh, uh, problem. But by getting that right, you know, and then, and then it’s kinda like the workflow of like.What happens when there’s a bug? How does it flow into the system? Like, is it like a subagent working on it? How does it make a PR and how does that get reviewed? And me, and then, you know, so there’s like the, the flow or process.[00:31:56] swyx: Yeah. Cool. Uh, you know, one thing we did work out before you guys came in was this demo or this[00:32:01] Simon Last: agents[00:32:02] swyx: agent demo.Uh,[00:32:03] Simon Last: so every,[00:32:04] Alsesio: every time we do an episode, we try the product. Right. I don’t think there’s ever been an episode that I haven’t tried. Yeah. Um,[00:32:11] swyx: and we, we try, try is a, a big word. Like since day one lane space has been on Notion, but this is the, this is the net new thing. Yes.[00:32:18] Alsesio: So this is for Nel Labs, which is the space we’re in.So next week we’re opening applications for tenants. So there’s a web form, let me, we got this form done here. Uh, so, uh, before. Uh, the workflow would be I get an email, then I look at the person. It was like, should I spend time talking to this person? Then I respond, they respond back. So I build this. So the name it came up for on its own.Can you maybe h how do, how does it come up with its own name?[00:32:43] Simon Last: Yeah, that’s a pretty app name. It’s, it, it is just a random, it’s a random, a name generator.[00:32:47] Alsesio: Oh, that’s funny. It just came,[00:32:49] Simon Last: the fact that it picked that is, is kind of hilarious. I’m pretty sure it’s just determined,[00:32:54] Sarah Sachs: resilient collector. I, I think I’ve never looked at the code for that.I’ve never second guessed it. I think it’s kind of like a madlib situation.[00:33:00] Simon Last: Yeah, I think you’re right. Yeah. It’s, it’s totally a, a deterministic. Oh, I thought it was great. Yes. Although, although when the, if you use the AI to set itself up, it can update its own name, so. Okay. Um,[00:33:11] Sarah Sachs: how did you create it? It, did you just do[00:33:12] Alsesio: classroom?I,[00:33:13] Sarah Sachs: okay.[00:33:13] Alsesio: I did, yeah. I’ll say just check my inbox for applications for a coworking space. Keep a people, so it created the database for me. Which I have here. And I guess database is like an notion table because everything is notion. Um, and then whenever um, an email comes in, like here, it just creates a new role for the person.Mm-hmm. And then it uses web search to enrich the mm-hmm. The profile. So it kind of like searches the web and it’s like, this is who this person is, this is when they say they wanna move in and kind of updates everything else. This is, I mean, it’s not a GI, but to me, I don’t wanna do this work. So it feels like, I mean, it took me maybe like 15 minutes to set up the whole thing.Um, and I really like that most of the information should live here. You know, it is not like some other tool asking me[00:34:01] Sarah Sachs: Yeah.[00:34:01] Alsesio: To like, bring my stuff there. It’s like I would’ve probably already created an ocean thing.[00:34:06] Sarah Sachs: Mm-hmm.[00:34:06] Alsesio: So[00:34:07] Sarah Sachs: most of our biggest use cases and gains are from. That extra layer of human involvement in the process to make it so right.And so like one of our biggest use cases is bug triaging. So if someone posts something in Slack, can you just have a custom agent that lives there that has its own routing constitution of what team this belongs to, creates a task in your task database and then posts in that Slack channel, right? Like that’s like one of the first things that we built internally, I think.And it’s completely changed the way that notion functions as a company. Nothing falls through, well, most things don’t fall through the crack. We don’t know what we don’t know. But it’s not replacing people, it’s replacing processes.[00:34:44] Alsesio: Yeah.[00:34:44] Sarah Sachs: Right.[00:34:45] Alsesio: And I’m curious how you think about composability of these things.So the other one I was working on is like a. These filler. So whenever somebody signs up as a tenant, kind of he’ll sell the lease for them. There should probably some agent that is like office manager agent mm-hmm. That can handle the request, make the lease, and then, uh, give them a ADA access to the office and all of that.How do you think about that feature?[00:35:08] Simon Last: Yeah, so I mean, there’s, there’s two ways you can compose. One way is by using like the data primitives. So you can, you know, you, you could give, you have one agent, uh, be writing to the database and there’s another agent that’s walked in the database. So that’s, that’s one way that they, they can coordinate that’s like a little bit more decoupled and mm-hmm.Works really well. Or you, you can couple them. So I, I think it’s actually not released yet. Releasing it like next week is, uh, in the settings for an agent, you can give access to invoke any other agent.[00:35:34] swyx: Hmm.[00:35:34] Simon Last: So you can have them just. Just, uh, uh, talk directly. So[00:35:37] swyx: you, was there a limit on like, number of recursions or just,[00:35:40] Simon Last: um, probably,[00:35:42] swyx: you know what I mean?Like, you can just get an infinite loop that way there’s[00:35:45] Simon Last: some kind of Yeah,[00:35:46] Sarah Sachs: I think it’s, there is actually a number somewhere.[00:35:49] swyx: I believe I’m just, you know, like, you’re, you’re, someone’s gonna screw up. You[00:35:51] Simon Last: should you try to see[00:35:53] swyx: Yeah. I mean, everything’s gonna be paperclips.[00:35:55] Simon Last: Oh, yeah. Yeah. But, uh, but, but that’s really useful.Yeah. So we, you know, like I just, I, I helped, uh, someone internally the other day, they had, they had built like over 30 custom agents for, uh, for our go to market team doing all kinds of different things. You know, for example, like researching, you know, like, like filling information about, about a customer or like, like triaging customer feedback or like, uh, something like that.Literally over 30 of them. And, and then he, and then he even made like a database of all the agents and then he is like, okay, and, and now I’m getting 70, over 70 notifications per day with just the agents are blocked on various things. Uh, and then I was like, oh, okay, cool. You know, the obvious thing to do there is to make a manager agent,[00:36:32] Sarah Sachs: right?[00:36:33] Simon Last: That’s gonna sort of blocks be another abstraction layer in between your, your, uh, uh, 30 agents. Uh, so yeah, we, we send out with like a manager agent and then has access to invoke all the other agents and it’s sort of like, like watching and observing them and then it sort of, it just creates a layer of abstraction.So instead of 70 notifications per day, it’s like, like five. And then, and then the manager agent can help like, uh, debug and fix any problems with the,[00:36:54] swyx: does this is a concept of like an inbox or something like piece, you’re basically saying that they can message each other?[00:37:00] Simon Last: Yeah.[00:37:01] Sarah Sachs: Well[00:37:01] swyx: they use the system of record, which, which is[00:37:02] Sarah Sachs: notion, so we[00:37:03] Simon Last: actually, yeah, we didn’t make any special concepts at all.[00:37:06] swyx: They’re interested to the motion notifications that I would’ve got,[00:37:09] Sarah Sachs: they can just like write a task to a database that the other agent’s task to listening to, or they can actually call a web book to the agent, like they can just add the agent. Okay.[00:37:17] Simon Last: Yeah, I mean, this is something that, that we’re still working on.I, I think we, you know, like, like generally, generally the way we do these things is, you know, you first make it possible, maybe like a sort of janky way. So I, I, I think the way I set ‘em up is like, you know, we created like a new database that was sort of like issues mm-hmm. That the custom agents were, were experiencing, and then gave them all access to file an issue and then the manager has access to, to read the issues.Um, and that works pretty well, essentially like, like give it its own like internal issue tracker just for the agents. And then, you know, if that becomes a, a concept that seems useful, generally maybe we will think of how to package it in. But I mean, generally we try to just keep it to composing the primitive if we can.You know, another example of this is we have no built-in memory concept. Memory is, is just pages and databases. And so if you wanna give a memory, just give it a page and give it. Edit access to that page and the[00:38:03] swyx: human can edit it. Agent can edit[00:38:04] Simon Last: it. Yeah. And so that works, that pattern works extremely well on it.And you know, depending this case, you can have it be just a page or it could be an entire database with, you know, or, you know, I can have sub pages is is pretty on what you can do with that.[00:38:15] Alsesio: So when I was setting this up, uh, I connected my inbox and it was like, do you wanna use Gmail or Notion Mail? And I’m like, I don’t wanna use Eater, I just want you to do it.I’m curious how you think about, you know, notion, mail, notion, calendar, all of these kind of ui ux interfaces, full stack[00:38:29] Simon Last: notion.[00:38:30] Alsesio: Yeah. When like at the same time you have the agents abstracting them away from you in a way, you know, how do you spend like the product calories so to speak?[00:38:37] Simon Last: Yeah, I mean, I think it’s pretty important that you don’t have to use, not your mail to connect to the mail capability.So we can just connect to Gmail or, or whatever you want, uh, to use. And we’re thinking of the mail service as being really great to the extent that it’s really agent built, right? So maybe the mail app is just sort of a prepackaged agent that helps you automate your, your inbox.[00:39:00] Alsesio: Yeah, the auto labeling is great.Think[00:39:03] Sarah Sachs: the, when we, um, integrate with Gmail for instance, we have a series of tools available that are available via MCP or API to Gmail. When we integrate with Notion Mail, we have the Notion Mail engineering team to build us the, um, exact right tools that optimize latency, optimize performance and quality.They own that quality. Um, there’s product leads there. They’re directly thinking about the user problems that happen in mail. So it tends to be when we build integrations and connections, we build natively first. Um, and then think about, um, extending them generally just because it’s also easier. Mm-hmm. Um, um, to build natively first.Um, so that tends to be how we phase things out.[00:39:43] swyx: Talking about integrations, you prompted me, so I gotta ask. M-C-P-C-L-I. What’s going on? What’s the[00:39:48] Simon Last: Yeah. Opinion. I think, I mean, I’m, I’m definitely bullish and excited about cli. I think there’s a few really cool things about cli. So one really cool thing is like, um, is that it’s in the terminal environment, so it gets a bunch of extra power.So it, you know, for example, it can like, like paginating and cursor through like long outputs. Um, and it has a progressive disclosure inherently. Uh, so, you know, you don’t see all the tools at once. It’s just, you see the CLI wrapper and you can like use the, the help commands and, and, and read files. And then I think the most important thing that’s, that’s super cool is that there, it’s also inherently a, a bootstrapped.So if there’s an issue, uh, the agent can debug and fix itself within the same environment that it uses the tool.[00:40:30] swyx: Mm.[00:40:30] Simon Last: Right. Like, you know, I think I saw a tweet this morning. Someone said, you know, my agent didn’t have a browser, so I asked it to make all a browser tool and within a hundred lines of code, it gave itself a little browser, like, like wrapping the, the, the chromium API, um.That’s pretty incredible. And then if there was a bug, it would just immediately try to fix it. Mm-hmm. Right. On the other hand, if you use an, you know, if you use like of, of the Chrome dev tools, MCP, I’ve had this issue where like, like sometimes the transport gets like messed up. If it gets messed up, the agent has no way to fix itself.It, it no longer has a browser, it’s, it’s not broken. Right. I think that’s, that’s pretty fundamental, but I would say like a lot of the, the bad things about it can be fixed. Uh, so I think like, as a progressive disclosure, that can be fixed with, with right harness. Like, it, it obviously doesn’t make sense to show it all the tools all the time.That’s not really inherent to the MCP protocol. It’s just like how you wrap it and use it.[00:41:16] swyx: There’s many poorly built MCPs because we didn’t know.[00:41:19] Simon Last: Yeah, yeah. I mean it was just early, like, like the obvious thing is, uh, you know, to start with is, is to just show it all the tools and it’s like, okay, now we have a hundred tools.Yeah. And like the tool calling actually works. So let’s of[00:41:28] swyx: your success[00:41:29] Simon Last: give it a way to like, like filter to source the tools. So yeah, I would say like broadly speaking, I’m really bullish on cli. I’m still bullish on CPS and in a certain environment. I think in, in particular, CP is really great for when you want sort of like a narrow, lightweight agent.I think there’s, there’s definitely a lot of use cases where, where you don’t want like a full coding agent with a compute run time. And also you want it to be like more tightly permissioned. MCP inherently has a really strong permission model, like all you can do is call the tools. A CLI is a little bit murkier.It’s like, can I access the, if PI token are you, like, properly sort of like re-encrypt the token so it can’t like exfiltrate it, it introduce a lot of like, like new issues, which are. Real and hard to solve. And MCP is just like the dumb simple thing that works and it that it’s pretty good.[00:42:12] Sarah Sachs: I’ll add two more perspectives, not from it working well for Notion, but how notion like commits to both platforms.Notion is dedicated to being the best system of record for where people do their enterprise work. So we will always support our MCP and so far as other people are using cps, right? So regardless of our perspective, we’ve put a lot of effort into our MCP and we have a fantastic team that we’re building, um, to do more there.And the second thing I’ll say, I think, um, we all think a lot, but lately I’ve been thinking a lot about making sure there’s a value alignment and pricing, um, with capability.[00:42:43] swyx: Literally our next question[00:42:44] Sarah Sachs: and. Needing language to execute deterministic tasks feels wasteful and requiring on a language model to interface with third party providers seems wasteful for tasks that don’t require it.And particularly because our custom agents are using usage-based pricing. We think of pricing as like the barrier of entry for use of our product, and we’re quite committed to making sure that it’s not wasteful. Um, not just because it’s a bad deal for our customers, but it’s also bad business. We wanna have as many buyers, like there’s a, there’s an elasticity of demand and so if we can have our agents properly execute code that calls on CLI deterministically, it’s a one-time cost, right?Versus constantly having a language model integrate with an MCP over and over and over and paying those like repeated token fees and it’s happening outside the cash window, then you’re paying for it over and over and over and it’s just kind of unnecessary and less deterministic when it doesn’t have to be.[00:43:36] Alessio: Yeah, the open-endedness I think is like, the main thing is like, well, if I go write code to just call an API, I would never use an MCP. But then you need an NCP sometimes when you know what to call, but you don’t want it to restart versus like, I think the it built a browser from scratch is like, it’s great when you’re doing it on your own, but like if your customers were having your AI write a browser from scratch every time and you had to pay the token cost of that, yeah.You’d be like, no, no. The Chrome dev tools CP is actually pretty great. Just use that. I’m curious, how do you make that decision? Like should it be. Just straight API call very narrow. Should it be an MCP? Should it be super open-ended?[00:44:10] Sarah Sachs: Do you mean for when we ship notion capabilities or when we add capabilities to[00:44:13] Alessio: notion[00:44:14] Sarah Sachs: AI or,[00:44:14] Alessio: I mean, you might have a capability that the only way to do is an open-ended agent, like an agent with a coding sandbox.[00:44:21] Sarah Sachs: Yeah. In Notion ai they’re not explicit, not We also ship an MCP.[00:44:24] Alsesio: Yeah. Yeah. In B,[00:44:25] Sarah Sachs: yeah.[00:44:26] Alsesio: Internally. Okay. Like is there ever a discussion of like, we’re not gonna ship it because we’re not able to tie it down? Or are you happy to just like,[00:44:33] Sarah Sachs: um, no. I mean, there are a lot of things where we choose not to use MCP because we wanna add more high touch to quality.I think search an agent to find is like the largest instance of that, where we have. Um, slack and linear and Jira search and notion that is not using necessarily the search MCP functionality that is provided by those companies. And that’s because it’s quite critical we think, to how our agent trajectories work is for us to have a little bit more control on the functionality of the search journey.And so it usually comes from quality and there’s a long tail of things and that’s why we built an MCP client or an MCP server, excuse me, so that people can connect whatever they want. There’s that long tail, right. But we, for search particularly, I would say that’s like the primary entry point, but there are other connections as well that it’s a little bit of secret sauce about when we are okay with like MCP functionality and user driven off.And when we actually want to wanna carry a lot more ourselves.[00:45:31] Simon Last: I think that there’s not really a conflict here. There’s just like different layers of the stack and different abstractions. I mean, if we were to like map it out, it’s like, you know, you’ve got CPS give you a, a way to, it’s a protocol for gaining access to tools.It’s an open protocol, so you can, you can easily get like a long tail, many things. So if you open up our, like in the tool settings, oh, that’s saw the trigger. Actually, actually, that’s something that MCP can’t do. So if you scroll down and you, and yeah. The, the tools and access, so you’re gonna a connection.Yeah. MCP is a really great way to gain access to tools or really well, but you just looked at the, the trigger why, for example, there’s no trigger protocol. And so those are things we had to build ourselves. And then there’s, there’s some integrations where we use MCP. Like, so for example, I think the, you know, the linear and the GitHubmm-hmm.[00:46:20] Simon Last: Use M ccp, but, but the Slack mail, er, those are actually ones they built in house. And we spent a lot of time really fine tuning all the tools to make the really good and also like building out the triggers. So it’s just like different layers of the stack. Some things make sense sometimes. And then, you know, we just have to like, like harness the right tool at the right time.I don’t think there’s an inherent like. Strong conflict between these things.[00:46:40] Alsesio: Do you have a canonical representation of these tools internally where like you wrap these things together, the MCP plus, the custom built?[00:46:46] Simon Last: Yeah. Yeah. We have like internal abstractions for like what is a tool, what is an agent, what is a completion call?Yeah.[00:46:55] Sarah Sachs: We even have internal obstructions for like, what is a chat archetype, whether it be from teams or Slack.[00:47:02] swyx: Yeah.[00:47:02] Sarah Sachs: Right.[00:47:02] swyx: It’s like the only[00:47:03] Sarah Sachs: way a to[00:47:03] swyx: build with, with ai ‘cause everything’s moving so quickly, you would have to attract it so that you can swap things up.[00:47:09] Simon Last: Yeah. I mean, there’s always a dance.We, we probably rebuilt our, our framework like, like I said, like, like five different times. Um, it’s always a dance of like, okay, how does this new thing work? Right? What should the abstraction be? Like, what is OpenAI giving us? What is that therapy giving us? Um, you know, like we’re trying to wrap over it. I think.I think we’ve been pretty successful with that. It, it’s just a matter of like, like staying nimble. Yeah. And making sure that you always have like the simplest, dumbest obstruction you can, that you know, that the maps are different things. Yeah. So, so we have like a tool integration abstraction, for example.And then MCP is like a, a type of integration.[00:47:41] swyx: Yeah.[00:47:42] Simon Last: That’s, that’s one of the,[00:47:43] swyx: this might be a big ask, uh, um, but I’m gonna try, uh, which is, you said, you’ve said multiple times, you rebuild a few times, like five times through, I don’t know if the, what the right number is. Is there like a brief history of what was the each rebuild doing and Yeah, I know it,[00:47:56] Simon Last: I can try to do that.I[00:47:57] swyx: mean,[00:47:58] Simon Last: yeah, there’s[00:47:58] swyx: interesting, you need, you need to rag over[00:48:00] Sarah Sachs: archeology.[00:48:00] Simon Last: I mean, the first version, the first version that we started building in like late 2022. Oh my gosh. Well, there’ve been many versions actually. Okay. Well the writers, the,[00:48:08] swyx: I like the highlights. The,[00:48:09] Simon Last: the[00:48:10] swyx: like,[00:48:10] Simon Last: oh[00:48:10] swyx: wow.[00:48:10] Simon Last: I mean the, the first version we built was actually a coding agent.Yeah. So we’re like, oh, instead of building tools, let’s make everything be JavaScript and then we’ll just give it JavaScript APIs and we’ll just write code. And that’s how it speaks to the tools. Um, but at the time. It just sucked at writing code. It wasn’t that good. Uh, so then we moved to, uh, more of like a tool calling obstruction.A tool calling didn’t exist yet, so we created this whole XML mm-hmm. Of representation. And a big, a big learning in that version is we were catering way too much to what made sense for notion and notions data model versus what the model wants. So as an example, we created this whole, uh, XML, uh, format that can losslessly mapped in notion blocks.And the transformation between them is super easy to do. Uh, and then we created this sort of like mutation operations to, to add to pages. Um, but it sucked because the model didn’t know the XML format and also the, and you have to prompt it[00:49:04] swyx: in and[00:49:04] Simon Last: Yeah, to prompt it in and the team just more convenient.And so yeah, we’re like, okay, well it has to be marked down. Uh, uh, the model’s no markdown, you know. So, uh, we did a whole project around basically, uh, uh, creating a notion flavored markdown where, uh, you know, the whole goal was like, it has to be just simple markdown at the core, and, and then we can add some enhancements.And it doesn’t have to be a, a full lossless conversion. That was a big one we did. And, and then we did a whole similar learning to, uh, the, the database layer. So, so to query a database, I mean, in the notion API, the way you query a database is there’s a crazy JSON format and it’s, you know, kind of limiting, but it maps nicely to like how we represent things internally.We scrapped all that and we’re like, okay, let’s just make it SQL light. Everything is a SQL Light database. You, you can query it just like a SQL light query. And the models are super good at that. So[00:49:51] swyx: give the models what they want.[00:49:52] Simon Last: That was another one. Yeah. Yeah. Give us what they want. I mean, that was, I would say that was a big learning is just, you know, really be, be savvy and really careful thinking about what the model wants in terms of, you know, its environment and, and, and cater around that.And really try so hard not to expose it to any complexity about your system that, that’s unnecessary.[00:50:12] swyx: Notions underlying database is Postgres, right? Not sql, right? Yeah. So I don’t know if there’s any mismatch there.[00:50:18] Simon Last: That one was kind of a fortuitous thing because we actually already, um, had a big project, uh, going where, so, so we have this, um, when you query Notion database, it’s actually querying this like, uh, cluster of SQL databases.[00:50:34] swyx: Mm-hmm.[00:50:35] Simon Last: That’s something that we’d already been working on even before the agents came around.[00:50:38] swyx: Yeah. You know, you guys had a fantastic blog post about it and like it’s, it is actually a really good database engineering knowledge to have that from you guys because where else would we get it?[00:50:47] Simon Last: Yeah, yeah.It’s a, it’s, it’s a crazy engineering problem when you want to have like millions and billions of tiny databases or where, where some of them are tiny, but some of ‘em are, are very large and want everything to be very fast.[00:50:57] swyx: Yeah. And also like, not that hierarchical sometimes, you know, uh, so somewhat of a graph.[00:51:02] Simon Last: Mm-hmm.[00:51:03] swyx: I do like that history because I think that shows the evolution that you guys went through and the work that went into it,[00:51:09] Sarah Sachs: that he just ended you a year and a half ago.[00:51:11] swyx: Oh, okay. Okay. Oh,[00:51:13] Simon Last: I need to, I need[00:51:13] swyx: to hit continue.[00:51:14] Sarah Sachs: If you’re curious. I mean, we can keep going. Just saying like, that’s really,[00:51:18] Simon Last: that’s another one.Yeah.[00:51:19] Sarah Sachs: I lemme think. Well, no. ‘cause there was tool calling and then there was research mode, which wasn’t a fully agentic tool calling. Um, then we moved away from few shot prompting entirely to tool definitions. Um, and now we’re thinking about Agent 2.0.[00:51:34] swyx: So no fusion prompts ever. Right.[00:51:35] Sarah Sachs: Uh,[00:51:36] swyx: okay. No, maybe not.[00:51:37] Sarah Sachs: I know never, but[00:51:38] Simon Last: yeah, that kind of went away. It’s an interesting thing,[00:51:40] swyx: right?[00:51:41] Simon Last: Yeah. I mean, so[00:51:41] swyx: these just instruction follow really well,[00:51:44] Simon Last: I would say if there’s been like a general arc where, you know, it’s like you gradually strip away everything. And it, it looks more a GI like. And so, you know, it it, it started out as like, it’s a one shot, one prompt.There’s a few shot examples. And it became like, okay, actually let’s give it, let’s give it tools, but it’s still a few shot examples. And then it became actually like, no, no, no, let’s just give it a whole bunch of tools. One big, big shift that, uh, that we I’ve been working on recently that’s about to ship is, um, you know, what happens when you have a lot of tools?[00:52:13] swyx: Yeah.[00:52:13] Simon Last: So then tool search. Yeah. So then a, a progressive disclosure becomes really important. So, you know, we were, we sort of hit a bottleneck where our, our agent worked really well. Um, we hit a bottleneck where, um, it, it, it became pretty hard to. Add new tools. Mm-hmm. And we, and we became sort of worried about it, like, like breaking the model.It’s like, okay, someone No, I[00:52:32] Sarah Sachs: just heard it was like saying hello was like thousands and thousands and thousands[00:52:35] Simon Last: Yeah.[00:52:35] Sarah Sachs: Tokens. It was really slow.I[00:52:37] Simon Last: can see you’re the efficiency person here. Yeah. It’s, it was too many tokens. But also it’s a quality issue because it meant that like any engineer could introduce this, this new tool for some like, like niche feature.And it would kind of like, like Nerf, the overall model by like causing it to call the tool too much and stuff like that. And so, um, it, uh, yeah, so we, uh, we had an effort basically to, to make our harness. Uh, implement progressive disclosure in, in a nice way. Um, that’s a big shift.[00:53:00] Sarah Sachs: You said earlier, like everyone says reasoning models was the big shift.Like what’s more there? When we went away from few shots to describing the goal of the tool in like goal-driven, basically moving from a DAG to like a, a true system with feedback, that’s something we could distribute tool ownership to the teams. Much better because when it was all few shots, it was everyone truly editing one string and things would o would compete.And like the order, there were all this, all these papers about, oh, you know, not all context is created equal. The higher up it is in your examples, like the more the model listens and we’re trying really hard to like fight against the order and the selection of the few shot. And that really had to be a center of excellence and it didn’t scale with the number of people for the need the company had.It was really just five or six people that were allowed to even touch that or had to approve it rather in our code base. And then now we can actually, with the right eval, setup, distribute, um, so that everyone owns their tool and their tool definition. And sometimes we have crazy things where like we write two tools that have the same title and the agent crashes and stuff like that.So like, you know, there are issues actually, believe it or not, um, Andro couldn’t take it. Sonic couldn’t handle two tools with the same name and open AI GPT five point. Two, it was like, I can figure this out. So that was an interesting one that we learned by accident through a, a sev.[00:54:17] swyx: But I mean, then, you know, the underlying representation is that’s a addict, right?Clearly. Like that’s a safety. Yeah,[00:54:23] Sarah Sachs: exactly. Exactly. Um, but so that was like a big shift for the company and velocity not immediate because the AI team that was the center of Excellence team that owned, you know, that one file of few shop prompts had to become a platform team overnight, and that wasn’t natural.Yeah. Yeah. But I would say that in terms of like the velocity of how we contribute to the agent, beyond coding tools, obviously being a big velocity lever, um, being able to distribute tools and not have to all collaborate on like one very select string of system prompt is truly, I would say the biggest lever on how we’ve scaled.[00:54:57] Simon Last: We’re fighting to keep the prompt as short as possible now and then, yeah. Yeah. It’s, uh, in the latest version of the agent, I, it’s not in custom agents yet, but it will be like, like next week, a week after or so, um, there’s now like over a hundred tools. Just for all, all the crazy notion stuff. So we’re able to, to really go deep and like,[00:55:11] swyx: would you list those tools publicly?Is this like IP or, uh,[00:55:15] Simon Last: no, no, no. It’s, it’s totally public. You can ask,we[00:55:17] Sarah Sachs: can fine[00:55:19] Simon Last: just ask. You can just ask the agent and, and we’ll tell you.[00:55:21] swyx: I find,[00:55:21] Sarah Sachs: and we’re gonna post a bench. I mean, like you’re[00:55:23] swyx: post bench.[00:55:24] Sarah Sachs: We don’t think our system prompt is our secret sauce.[00:55:26] swyx: Yeah. Mm-hmm.[00:55:27] Simon Last: Great. We don’t try to hide the tools at, at all.I think it’s, I think it’s kinda important actually as an operator, you know?[00:55:32] swyx: Yeah. As a power user, I wanna be like, oh, I can do this, this, this. Great.[00:55:35] Simon Last: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, one thing that, one phrase we say internally in lot is to, to teach at the top of the class. You know, we wanna build like, like the customization’s, kind of like a power tool.I mean, we try to make it as easy as possible to set up, but we want it to be pretty deep and sophisticated. And I think a huge part of that is the operator needs to be able to interrogate. The way the system works. And a big part of that is like, what are the tools? How do they work? You know, like, like how should I prompt it to use the tools in the right way?[00:56:00] Sarah Sachs: I’d actually say we don’t try and make it as easy as possible to use. ‘cause the more we do that, the more we abstract away that interpretability, that Simon’s talking about, that basically nerfs the model or nerfs the agent from being super capable. So a huge. I would say turning point, I can think about like the week and a half that we all came together on this as we were building custom agents, was that alignment that we’re not trying to build for everyone here.We’re not trying to build the model that, um, or build the user experience that anyone can figure out how to use. ‘cause the more we do that, the more we just diminish its capabilities. And that was a big, you know, everyone in a couple Slack messages aligned on that, that actually made us all work faster again.Right? ‘cause we all were like more centralized on who we were building for[00:56:40] Alsesio: what does the meta prom generator look like? So I looked in the system prompt that it, gen, for example, uses emojis. That’s not a, you know, obvious thing to be doing.[00:56:50] swyx: Wait, did you just[00:56:51] Alsesio: ask it? What’s your system prompt? Oh no. This is how to generate prompts.[00:56:54] swyx: The[00:56:54] Alsesio: prompts generate prompts.[00:56:55] Sarah Sachs: We call it set. Then it’s[00:56:56] Alsesio: a set.[00:56:56] Simon Last: Well, well, so this is actually just the agent. So, so one thing we did that, that I really like with the custom agents is it can set itself up. So we not only give it access to use the tools than it has access to like send your emails or whatever, um, but it has more tools to set itself up and to debug itself.And so when you ask it to write system prompt, it’s just your agent itself is doing that.[00:57:16] Alsesio: So this is just the model preference. You’re not really injecting and then into the model too much.[00:57:21] Sarah Sachs: No, no. We haven’t guide the same thing. Makes a good custom agent and Yeah.[00:57:23] Alsesio: Yeah.[00:57:24] Sarah Sachs: And things like that. And then, and, and it’s really nice too because like if it fails, you can ask it, why did it fail?And then say, okay, update your instructions so it doesn’t fit again. Obviously we should build product of self-healing that’s, that’s next on our roadmap. But um, it actually, it creates a nice system.[00:57:40] Simon Last: Yeah. We do essentially give it like a development guide. Here’s, you know, here’s how to make a custom agent.Here’s how to like, like help the user test it end to end, you know, to, to help them gain confidence that it works. Stuff like that.[00:57:49] Alsesio: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah. The fixing thing work, I mean, it wasn’t automatic, but I, I miss set something up and then there works like a fix button and then just, yeah,[00:57:58] Simon Last: yeah, yeah. One thing where[00:57:59] Alsesio: fix agent makes more,[00:58:01] Simon Last: it’s, it’s actually, it’s an interesting sort of permission problem.So like, right. The thing about custom agents. That is that by default it has no permission to do anything and then you have to explicitly grant it all its permissions and that’s what lets you trust it can work in the background. Right? Like you can know like, oh, it, it can read my email but not send email.Okay, I can trust that. Right. If you let it fix itself, you know, you’re, you’re breaking that, that version there, it, it is not allowed to edit its own permissions. But as, so, you know, in the current product you can sort of click a button to fix, but now you’re entering sort of an admin mode where, where, where you’re in a synchronous chat and, and you can, and you can see what it’s doing.[00:58:35] Sarah Sachs: Yeah. And it, and it confirms before it[00:58:37] Alsesio: changes.[00:58:37] Sarah Sachs: Yeah.[00:58:37] Alsesio: The thing that I really like that most people don’t do is like, the editing chat is the same thing as the using chat. Like you can message the agent to both edit it and use it, versus a lot of other products are like, I think[00:58:49] Simon Last: that’s really key. I think, I[00:58:50] Sarah Sachs: think a lot of designers will feel so happy you said that.Yeah. ‘cause we spent, we, we call this flippy, um, uh,[00:58:55] Simon Last: yeah. What is[00:58:56] Alsesio: this?[00:58:56] Sarah Sachs: What do you mean? This,[00:58:57] Simon Last: this view of, well, yeah, so if you sort of, if you close that in like open settings, you can see sort of Yeah. This is, we. We call it flippy because you know, we started with sort of like the settings were the sort of the main page and then you can test the agent.The a GI pill way to think about it is like, oh, it is just the agent. Everything’s the agent, right? It can set itself up, it can test itself and it can run the workflow that they want to run. Uh, so we flipped it. So the main view I was looking at is the chat and, and then the settings is more just like a side panel at, at sort of previewing the changes that it’s making.So you can introspect on them or, or you can also make changes manually if you’d like. But, but we wanna design the experience from the get go. So you don’t have to ever any of the settings manually, you can just talk to it.[00:59:39] Sarah Sachs: And the inside baseball is like how this works was probably the launch blocking part of this build.Right. Um, especially ‘cause we had a lot of early adopters that were used to the old way and that’s like the benefit of adopting in public. But then changing how people think about setting up custom agents when they already had this flow in and of itself was difficult. Um,[00:59:57] Simon Last: I mean that’s really fun ‘cause the, we, we ended up sort of uh, uh, painfully delaying the launch.Mm-hmm. By.[01:00:04] Sarah Sachs: A month?[01:00:04] Simon Last: A few weeks. Yeah, definitely. Like, like a month or so. Um, but the whole team was super enthusiastic about it though. ‘cause it was just so much better. It was like, oh yeah, obviously you have to chat with it, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. To set itself up. And everyone was super bullish on that, so it was like, like painful for a second.But then everyone’s like,[01:00:19] Sarah Sachs: right, and like back to, you know, organization design, which I probably care about more than Simon, but like the people that built this are three engineers from three different teams. Because we’re like, we need to launch this and we need to fix this. And then we’ve just built a company where then we just put people on it and no one complains, the manager doesn’t complain.And we were able to unblock and just ship it.[01:00:37] Alsesio: Yeah, yeah. But being in a failure chat and asking it to just fix yourself is amazing. Versus I gotta copy this and put in the settings chat. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. To do[01:00:49] Simon Last: it. So yeah. Interesting. Like a trade off in there that, that we’re trying to explore, which is, you know, we wanna be like a business enterprise safe agent where you can delegate something and, and trust that it’s gonna work.But also we want to get some of that sort of bootstrapping power that, that you feel like when you’re coding it is making a browser, like for itself, right. There’s something there. I think that’s, that’s really important. So it’s, we’re trying to sort of. Navigate that, that, that trade off and try to get you both.[01:01:12] Alsesio: Now it’s free, it’s amazing. Uh, I’m worried about when I have to start paying. How do you think about, so you have notion credits as a payment for this, which is like separate from the usual tokens, uh, that the model generates. How do you design pricing, value-based pricing based on the task and things like that.[01:01:30] Sarah Sachs: So they are, um, the credits and payment structures associated with the token usage. The reason that we had to make it not just throughput of tokens is that it’s not always priced that way. Like our, um, fine tuned and open source models are served on GPUs, right? Web search is priced differently. You know, if we were to host sandboxes, those are priced differently.So we had to think of an abstraction above tokens. And it’s also not just tokens, it’s the token model. Um, and serving tier trade off, right? Mm-hmm. Because we can have priority tier processing, we can have asynchronous processing. The cash rate could be different, um, depending on who uses it when, right?And so we wanted to, um, from the get go commit to making sure that customers were getting the fair deal. Not necessarily that we were making a ton of money off of it, but that customers were paying for what was reasonable. That’s the fundamental of where we started. And also, you know, we’re selling enterprise sa, so if we sell credit packs and you get discounts if you’re an enterprise and you buy a certain amount of credit packs and things like that.So it also just helped the sales motion, um, work a little bit easier. So that’s the answer on the abstraction of credits to dollars. Now was the question how we decide how to price it or?[01:02:34] Alsesio: Yeah, like, I mean, I think there’s, all tokens are not made equal, but yeah, we obviously get charged mostly equal. Like you can ask, uh, codex to create you a dumb tool for like, I created one for our StarCraft two land for people to like find a game.Uh, but then people create it to build features and like billion dollar companies. But the token price is the same.[01:02:53] Sarah Sachs: Yeah.[01:02:54] Alsesio: Like for you, I can ask this to update my favorite recipes doc. I’ll do it, but I could ask it to like respond to an email from an investor and like the value is like very different, you know, and you could charge more, but you’re not necessarily doing it.So I’m curious if there was any discussion.[01:03:11] Sarah Sachs: I think, I think that, um, that’s not where the market is right now. Um, number one, the second reason that we’re not doing that, as it ended up being kind of complicated to figure out what was complicated or not. So we at first we were like, let’s just charge on agent runs.And you know what, you went through all the different versions that ultimately just brought you back to a lot of complexity that mapped directly to token throughput. And so it, it’s also just simpler. Um, it’s quite difficult, um, to build those pricing systems. And, um, I actually think that one of the biggest reasons we want had usage based pricing for this capability is.We’ve had our core agent for a while with a model picker and there were certain models, um, or certain functionality that we had margins to maintain. And if we wanted to ship this functionality, uh, you, we couldn’t afford it, it would bankrupt the company. If we let, for instance, like autofill or the database autofill feature, we’ll soon be agentic That will be associated with usage based pricing.Because if every single autofill action was an agent running on Opus on every single database sell, it would be billions of dollars, right? And so we had to find a way for the customers that wanted to do more and wanted to give us their money and pay more to find the outlet for them to do it, that we didn’t have to apply to the lower end of the curve.And also, not all knowledge work is equal. Like there’s different points. A lot of the agent workflows here really saturate model capabilities. Like you don’t need a complicated model for it. And so charging based on token usage, um. It, we couldn’t just decide for you that you wanted your email client to be dumb or not, right?Like, we want you to decide if you want to have Opus Auto Triage all of your emails, we will actually give you nudges in the product to rethink if that’s the right choice. Right. Um, because also not every user, um,[01:04:52] Alsesio: understand.[01:04:53] Sarah Sachs: You’d be surprised in user interviews. People would be like, oh, I didn’t know that.So now we actually have a little hover that tells you like if it’s expensive or not. Yeah. I mean, it’s also slower. So the thing that’s interesting is like people don’t care about speed and custom agents. And so the incentive of like, uh, haiku being faster, people don’t care when it’s asynchronous. Um, and so we want to only provide the service of extra, extra benefit that people want.And the best way to do that is to incentivize them because it’s their own own money.[01:05:21] Alsesio: It must be confusing for people that are not familiar. It’s like, why is there no 5.3. You know, you open this thing and it’s like, is there something missing? Manual. It’s not their fault. Not their fault.[01:05:30] Simon Last: Yeah. That’s just the world we live in now.[01:05:32] Alsesio: Yeah. It just radical jump point too, it’s like Cloud had that.[01:05:35] Sarah Sachs: I mean, but auto is heavily, I think what’s actually been hard for us is to tell convince people that auto is not just our cheapest, dumbest model, but actually the model that’s best for the task that you wanna do. Um, alright. Steve.[01:05:46] swyx: I mean,[01:05:48] Sarah Sachs: exactly.Nice. Um, and a lot of our job is actually figuring out auto because it’s like,[01:05:54] swyx: this is the agent lab. Every agent lab has an auto. Mm-hmm.[01:05:57] Sarah Sachs: Yeah. And[01:05:58] swyx: that’s the job.[01:05:58] Sarah Sachs: Exactly. Because if you think about, like I said, I come from Robinhood, like you could spend a lot of time keeping up with the markets or you could have a auto investing, right?And you can have an index fund or you can have[01:06:12] swyx: roboadvisors[01:06:12] Sarah Sachs: of the robo advisor. And so like at a certain point we also can be roboadvisors and like we have a lot of people figuring out what model is best for the right task. And we now, we’re not using auto as a, as a margin maker, we’re just using it to kind of reduce stress.It’s not opus, that’s for sure. Yeah. Because a majority of the tasks people are doing aren’t opus level, um, intelligence.[01:06:34] Simon Last: The other thing I would say is the, um, you know, unlike a lab, we aren’t fully incentivized just for you to use as many tokens as possible. We’re actually really interested in. Giving you the right tool for the job.A lot of the time, the right tool for the job is actually just writing code and not even using agent at all. So that’s, that’s something that we’re investing in a lot is like, you know, imagine your, your agent can actually automate itself out of a job. Right. We would love if that were true.[01:06:58] Sarah Sachs: I feel very strongly about this because I don’t necessarily feel like that’s the SKUs that Frontier Labs give you.I feel like they are just getting more and more capable and more and more expensive, which is fantastic for the use cases of when people wanna do really complicated things on Notion. Um, what’s difficult is like that market that I think right now is no man’s land of where reasoning models were six months ago, that the nano haikus, et cetera, haven’t caught up to, because now we’re just paying more for those, um, for like extra capability that we didn’t necessarily need and so are our customers.Mm-hmm. And, um, labs aren’t necessarily incentivized, um, right now with how few players there are to be meeting the market everywhere. They just need to be the cheapest. They don’t need to be at value that the customer wants.[01:07:41] swyx: Hmm.[01:07:42] Sarah Sachs: If no one’s cheaper than them, then they’re the cheapest and that’s good enough.Right. And so we’re doing a lot to make sure that we have the right optionality, um, to switch between models and also invest in open source because the open source models actually are, um, getting to be the place where reasoning models were three, four months ago. And, um, that’s what’s filling that gap right now.So you’ll see we offer Mini Max and, um, we are collaborating a lot with different open source labs to think about notion’s last exam and how they can do better on these types of tasks. Mm-hmm. So that we can offer them for that intelligence to price to latency trade off. Because, you know, in that triangle of intelligence, price, um, intelligence, price and latency, excuse me, um, users get to choose where they are, but right now, um, there’s not, the whole triangle isn’t filled with models, right?Yeah. And the more that different models build cluster triangle capability, everyone’s clustered in capability where everyone’s cluster. I mean, haiku’s not that much cheaper. No one’s really in the middle. Like people really tend to. Cluster round two. Mm-hmm. Like, this is really capable and it’s really fast made, it’s really expensive or whatever.Right. And so we just wanna make sure that that triangle’s filled, um, and we wanna offer the models that fill it and we wanna, um, gate guide users to understand when they need it. Yeah. Um, which one,[01:08:54] swyx: I mean, all I’m hearing is that someday you’re gonna change your model. You have lots of tokens.[01:09:01] Sarah Sachs: I don’t know if, what do you mean by train your model?You train[01:09:03] swyx: your[01:09:03] Sarah Sachs: own, train your own model. Don’t know. We have money to train a founda. I mean,[01:09:06] Alsesio: you go raise[01:09:07] swyx: it. Yeah. You, you can raise it.[01:09:09] Sarah Sachs: That’s your job, Simon. No, I, I don’t think that that needs to be our core competency.[01:09:14] swyx: This is usually the, the thought process that leads to like, well, no one else is doing it.We, we will take a crack. You know,[01:09:19] Simon Last: I think I’m, yeah. I mean, I feel like to the extent that we do anything like training in the other area I’m actually most excited about is, um. Less of like one big model for all the users, but like as, as, as it becomes more possible to do, you know, to make like a specific fine tuning that’s like really knows your context of, you know, your company, the people that work your company, what’s going on.I think that’s, that’s pretty interesting because if you, if you had a model that really knows your company, I think that would be like a huge quality uplift.[01:09:47] Sarah Sachs: We actually have some enterprise vendors that kind of ask about this, um, along with bring our own key. Like if I have a model that really understands like my enterprise that we’re training for all these reasons, these tend to be like quite large institutions thinking about how to let people bring their own models.But those models have to function with like[01:10:04] swyx: right[01:10:04] Sarah Sachs: understanding how to call our tools. And that’s where again, having, um, more. Public system prompt is like beneficial to notion, right? Um, we want all models to plug into notion as, as, as well as they can. Um, that being said, like of course there are certain aspects of notion where we do fine tune and do reinforce and fine tuning on our own capabilities.Um, but that’s not necessarily trained on user data. Um, you don’t need that, that much data, um, in the first place. And that’s where when we have like a data scientist and a, a model behavior engineer really understand where the capability gap is, that’s when we invest there.[01:10:38] Simon Last: I personally burned a lot of time trying to train models.Uh, and it’s tempting, right? It’s so tempting, retraining[01:10:46] Sarah Sachs: every day.[01:10:47] Simon Last: I was doing crazy amount. Yeah, I was doing a lot of different things. Um, and it, I[01:10:50] Sarah Sachs: was the budget person that came and found out and I showed up and I heard that that was happening time[01:10:55] Simon Last: out. You know, like a, a funny thing that ‘cause the sort of an arc that like looped on itself is, uh, you know, back when I was doing tons of training stuff, it takes a long time to do it.Any kind of training run. And so. You end up operating like, like 24 7 around the clock. Like it becomes very important that before you go to sleep, like everything is watch intensive board, all the experiments are, are started. And then as I stopped training, that kind of went away. But now the coding agents have totally brought this back.Mm-hmm. So now every night before I go to bed, I’m like, okay, did I start enough agents, you know, to get them done. I get everything done. So it, it’s, it’s a ding interesting heart,[01:11:26] swyx: this balance of like, you have to try polyphasic sleep so you can wake up every two.[01:11:29] Simon Last: Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. We, uh, yeah, I have not gone there yet, but, but my goal these days is just to, before I go to bed.The agents are running, and I’m confident that they won’t be done by the time I wake up. Really[01:11:41] swyx: Eight[01:11:42] Simon Last: hours.[01:11:42] Sarah Sachs: There’s a, I won’t say which coding Frontier Lab, but there was a point where he had like outlived like the thread length and context length uhhuh that that coding agent provided. And I DMed you DMed them being like, Hey, I need, I need more.And our account rep DMed me directly and they’re like, is Simon trying to prove string theory? Like what is he doing?[01:12:00] Simon Last: Yeah. I, I had a single coating Asian thread going for I think it was like 17 days. Uh, pretty much continuously.[01:12:06] swyx: Don’t, don’t they just compress? I mean, yeah.[01:12:08] Simon Last: Yeah. It was actually just a bug.It was a harness bug. Yeah. It, it had done compaction like a hundred times probably.[01:12:13] swyx: Yeah. The[01:12:14] Sarah Sachs: other thing that um, reminded me about fine tuning that I think you and I have aligned on is that. Our tools change really frequently, and right now we spend a lot of time rethinking and building tools for capability and fine tuning a model, um, to understand your tool.Like we don’t have legal expertise or coding expertise. So if we were to fine tune a model, it would either be expertise about the enterprise and you know, we have ZDR, no data retention offerings for those enterprises. So we’d have to really rethink how we structure if an enterprise wanted to opt into that or it would be fine tuning and better capability on navigating our tools that doesn’t match with the velocity with which we create new tools.And so it actually really slow us down, um, to have a model that was fine tuned on our tools because we’d have to retrain it and cut a new model every time we did that. And that’s not how we’re set up right now. Um, particularly with the way that we’re changing our, I, I guess we could fine tune a model to like search for tools.It’s just. The, the amount of time it takes to do that, ship it, have the right system, you’re basically making a bet against a frontier capability not serving that, and the time it takes you to build it. Mm-hmm. And that, that time lag hasn’t happened for us yet. It hasn’t[01:13:17] Simon Last: been, yeah. It’s just the wrong trade off.I think. It’s just like you want Yeah. We literally change our tools every single day and if we notice an issue, we will, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll fix the problem. I think a, a good way to think about it, I think is pretty fruitful, is like, don’t focus too much on training. I would think of that as like, that’s an implementation detail.Like what’s the outer loop, right? Like, like the outer loop is you have a model and then some harness or, or system where it’s interacting with the system that needs to work. And you know, if there’s a problem, the way to solve the problem isn’t necessarily to train a model. It’s like, oh, maybe there’s just a bug in one of the tools.Right? And actually 99% of the time it’s a bug in one of the tools, right? And so just fix the bug. And then the outer loop thing that’s really fruitful to think about is like, how can you improve your, your velocity and robustness? Making really good tools, making a good harness, you know, like, like verifying it works.Hmm.[01:14:07] Sarah Sachs: The one place that we do invest more in model turning now necessarily though, is actually in retrieval because, um, we’re at a point right now in our business and enterprise, our AI enabled plans where. The search load and the search traffic. Majority of it’s coming from agents, not humans. And so for every query that’s hitting our elastic search or our vector indices, they’re not coming from humans.And the queries are structured differently. And what’s returned has a different re requirement. Positional ranking matters less, but top K retrieval mode matters more. Right.[01:14:34] swyx: Isn’t top KA form of position?[01:14:36] Sarah Sachs: Of course it is. But um, when you’re training on like click through rate, it’s really, you know,[01:14:41] swyx: yeah.[01:14:41] Sarah Sachs: It matters much less.Number one through number six is very different[01:14:44] swyx: Yeah.[01:14:44] Sarah Sachs: Than it needs to be in the top 100.[01:14:45] swyx: Like the slope is just,[01:14:46] Sarah Sachs: yeah.[01:14:46] swyx: Higher.[01:14:47] Sarah Sachs: It’s a different optimization function for retrieval, um, model. Similarly, uh, what snippet you include matters more or less. Right. So we are rethinking a lot of that functionality, um, to work with how the agents like to write queries and how, um, they wanna, uh, receive information.Yeah. So we are doing like another kind of reinvestment into rethinking not only search for, um, how do agents do searches versus how humans do searches. Um, but we’re also investing in like. Indexing different things now because, uh, how are, how do you index, uh, the setup generator for Notion agent? It kind of breaks our block model entirely, um, where all blocks are nested in each other.Same with meeting notes. Um, and so we do, we, I mean, so we’re hiring ranking engineers and model training engineers, but it’s primarily on ranking.[01:15:32] swyx: Yeah. Does ranking maps to res for you? It does, right. Recommendation systems.[01:15:36] Sarah Sachs: Yeah. Um, yes.[01:15:38] swyx: Right. Okay. Say this, but I’m trying to promote res more in general ‘cause I is weirdly unpopular.[01:15:45] Sarah Sachs: I don’t know why. Um, but the other thing is that, like, I I was just talking about this with a peer, like how much is ranking important versus like, uh, being able to do parallel exhaustive queries. Right. Um, so we’re also, they’re both important. They’re both important, but like they’re both two tools to the same user outcome or the same agent outcome.Uhhuh. Right. And so, um, that. That’s something that we’re also rethinking a lot even on, we just did an experiment on, um, notion ranking at this point, um, for notion retrieval, vector embeddings are less and less.[01:16:15] swyx: Did you see that? Yeah. Notion just, uh, to nine[01:16:19] Alsesio: so long it became dark mode.[01:16:21] Sarah Sachs: We’re working the night shift for you.Right? Looks[01:16:23] Simon Last: pretty good. I’m not seeing any bug.[01:16:24] swyx: You know, I worked on this like parallel search thing where you, you found out to eight different queries, right? Yes. And so you actually need to use the model to work on query diversity so that you get right. Investment space.[01:16:35] Sarah Sachs: And so like the people that are working on, um, ranking and retrieval are the same people working on what query generation is.It’s all one, uh, journey. Yeah. We call it age agentic find. And we’re actually realizing, for instance, that it’s less about a selection. Like we don’t spend a lot of time trying to optimize what vector embedding we use anymore. That was a period of time, but that’s just not the right lever of optimization.[01:16:55] swyx: Yeah. Right. Yeah. Okay. Uh, we’ve gone long. I have to talk about motion meeting minutes and then we’ll, we’ll, we can call it there. Uh, you, you, you just have a lot of comments. Uh, you, you, uh, I don’t know where you wanna start. Um, is it the audio side? Is it the sort of Oh, meeting notes, summarization? Yeah.[01:17:12] Simon Last: Sort of like what makes it work or[01:17:13] swyx: No, just like anything sort of interesting technically, right? Like I think you had, you had some, uh, book points. I always call these like check marks along the way when the, when a guest says something that we, they wanna return to later, I just like, check mark it. Yeah.I’m like, okay. We’ll back to it. Um,[01:17:26] Sarah Sachs: meeting notes was one of those things where at first we were nervous that we’d have to teach people a different way to work, and we were nervous that that was a lot of user friction. I think one of the reasons why, I mean, they’re one of our biggest growth lever. I think they’re one of the most like.In terms of virality of adoption and retention, quite strong. Um, and so we’ve invested more and more as we did that. I think what’s really powerful about it is, again, notion is the system of record of where and how you work. The way that I use meeting notes is every one-on-one and meeting I have is meeting notes.When I do my performance review for myself, myself, review, I say primarily look at all my conversations with my manager and like, write up what I did this year, right? Because if I didn’t talk about it in my one-on-one with my manager, it probably wasn’t relevant for my performance review. So it also just adds a ton of signal on prioritization that’s really helpful for a good system of record.That’s really helpful for like our agent. It’s also like caused a lot of scaling for search and for the agent. Um, and you know, it’s, it’s just an explosion of content when you have transcripts like that. Um, how we do compaction. A lot of that was triggered by meeting notes passed into context, things like that.Um, so it’s been a good impetus for us to think about. Longer form, um, content when you think of it as like a priority, primitive, but it’s been one of the most powerful signals for our agent. Um, because it’s[01:18:44] swyx: unsurprising. Right? Right. And[01:18:45] Sarah Sachs: you’re[01:18:45] swyx: capturing a whole new thing.[01:18:46] Sarah Sachs: So it’s like our own data. Like we want users like, or they’re creating their own data flywheel, right?[01:18:51] swyx: Like it serves me to prefer notion, uh, to put all my stuff because it has my other stuff.[01:18:57] Sarah Sachs: Totally. I mean, the way that, the way that like our teams run right now is. You know, there’s a custom agent that does a pre-read before standup. It looks through all of Slack and GitHub and just says, you know, it, it, it creates a summary and it creates a meeting note and it says Everyone do this pre-read.Then we just press play. We have the meeting, we talk through the pre-read, we talk about what needs to happen next, and then we have a custom agent integrated with our calendar and triggers that then files task for tomorrow or today based on what we spoke about. And, um, sends off Slack messages that we decided in the meeting needed to be follow ups.Like our meetings are hands off keyboard and we’re focused on, um, the root of the problem, not the bookkeeping around the problem.[01:19:32] Simon Last: One thing that, uh, the me, us team had recently that was, but I’ve been blowing my mind, is they, we, uh, uh, they made it so it actually, when it makes the summary, we’ll actually app mention the people that were referenced oof in it.So I, I, I now get notifications whenever someone talks about meeting. Yeah. I[01:19:46] Sarah Sachs: feel like that one[01:19:47] Simon Last: was, it’s like, it’s like, oh, you know. Simon is working on this. Okay, I’m gonna, it’s actually amazing how, because then I’m like, oh, okay, cool. I’m gonna go talk to them about that.[01:19:55] swyx: Right? What, what if they’re two Simons?[01:19:56] Simon Last: Um,[01:19:57] Sarah Sachs: no wait, so wait. It’s powered by the agent. So it’s doing agentic. So if you look at it thinking, I don’t know if this is shipped yet. It will be, when you look at it thinking when it’s doing the summarization, it’s saying, figuring out who Simon[01:20:07] swyx: is most probable Simon[01:20:08] Sarah Sachs: is. Yeah. Um, and we also have like a people to people similarity cash and stuff like that.Yeah, yeah. On the here’s we sort of like,[01:20:15] Simon Last: we also like generate a profile for each person and like, and use that. Um, yeah. I mean of course I can get it wrong, but the goal is for not to get it[01:20:22] Sarah Sachs: wrong. Meeting nuts is just like the agent primitive packaged on top of a transcription. Primitive. Yeah. Yeah. And then a vertical team.It’s probably one of the only teams at Notion that’s completely a vertical team around quality and product like UX design. ‘cause it’s still a Tiger team. Um, with a fantastic manager, Zach, that joined recently, um, from Embr, but, um,[01:20:40] swyx: Zachar.[01:20:41] Sarah Sachs: Yeah.[01:20:42] swyx: Yeah. I, uh, chatted with him when he was talking about with his working number.[01:20:45] Sarah Sachs: Yeah. So he’s, he’s managing that team now and thinking about it as data capture. That’s what meeting notes is, is data capture it, get[01:20:50] swyx: all[01:20:51] Sarah Sachs: the kinds of kind of reframing, um, where meeting notes are valuable as a data capture problem and then working inside, um, like the summarization used to not be age agentic.Yeah. Now it is because it does all the things like figure out who the right Simon is. And one day you can have a custom agent directly integrated in it that knows like what task database the meeting is referring to. And as you’re having the meeting perhaps update the tasks and things like that. Like there’s a, there’s a lot of that experience of where we do our work in meetings that we wanna invest in.Making more seamless.[01:21:18] swyx: Yeah. Uh, opening eyes, doing hardware. Uh, would you ever ship one of these?[01:21:22] Simon Last: Yeah, probably not,[01:21:23] Sarah Sachs: but one of those.[01:21:23] swyx: But you know, this, this is meeting notes in person.[01:21:25] Simon Last: Yeah. Yeah. I, I’d be excited about, I mean, I’m excited about that, that product category in general for sure. Yeah.[01:21:31] Sarah Sachs: I think it’s like, it’s a, it’s a mechanism and it.It, one of those needs to work really well with Notion. We would partner with whoever’s building one of those, I think. Yeah. This is[01:21:40] swyx: be they, they were bought by Amazon. I don’t know. I I can refer you.[01:21:43] Sarah Sachs: And there’s like, there’s some wild companies doing like really cool things that come to our partnerships team that I like to sit in on the demos of, of wearables.I always like to send in on the demos ‘cause I think they’re Oh, okay. Pretty cool. And all of them want to make sure, not just notion, but like you can imagine the ones that talk to you. Yeah, yeah. Um, being able to do search and build context. So like if you’re entering like a conference, um, being able to like do like look at your CRM and do things like that.Um, and you can utilize the Notion agent to do that. So we are in like the very beginnings of those partnerships. I think what’s unique about that particular technology is it goes against what I talked about with custom agents right now, which is the more simple it is, the harder it is to have like advanced controls over its capabilities.Right? And so that would be a great investment for data capture, but not necessarily like our agent is workflows.[01:22:26] Simon Last: It’s something with a different slice of the problem, I would say. Yeah. Like that’s gonna be deeply personal. Like, like your company’s not gonna force you to wear a risk. Wristband. Right. I, I think[01:22:35] Sarah Sachs: it’s good to hear that from me.From you. Yeah.[01:22:38] Simon Last: Yeah. The, the CEO’s gonna force everyone to wear a wristband look, I mean, the slice of the problem that, that we care about is like, you know, can the company have all the context of what everyone said at every single meeting, and then use that to, yeah. To, to derive value for themselves.[01:22:52] Sarah Sachs: It kinda reminds me, I remember once you.Very strongly reminded me, our job is to not make the best harness for agentic work. Our job is to be the best place where people collaborate. It’s like our job isn’t to build the best wearable to capture meeting notes. Our job is to build the best place where meeting notes live. Right?[01:23:11] swyx: Yeah. So it basically, you’re saying everyone else can just pipe to you and it’s fine, right?Yeah, yeah, yeah. That’s, that’s a reasonable thing. All I’ll say is that people, there’s people walking around with notion tattoos on them. They, they’ll wear notion anything. So just, I don’t know, do a limited run.[01:23:24] Simon Last: Yeah, yeah. No, I mean,[01:23:27] Sarah Sachs: we have such understated swag that the idea, like our swag has so few notion lay logos on it.The idea that people have notion tattoos is pretty antithesis to our design principles, so that’s pretty funny.[01:23:38] Simon Last: Yeah.[01:23:39] Sarah Sachs: Do you have one?[01:23:40] Simon Last: No, not, I do not have a notion Tattoo too. I’ve, I’ve seen them. Yeah.[01:23:44] swyx: Cool. Uh, well, thank you so much. This is such a great deep, deep dive. Actually. The chemistry between you two is amazing.Like, I, I can’t believe, like[01:23:51] Sarah Sachs: we work together a lot. Yeah. Different jobs. Work closely.[01:23:55] swyx: Yeah.[01:23:55] Alsesio: That’s it. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you.[01:23:57] Sarah Sachs: Thanks. Thank you. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Extreme Harness Engineering for Token Billionaires: 1M LOC, 1B toks/day, 0% human code, 0% human review — Ryan Lopopolo, OpenAI Frontier & Symphony 07.04.2026 1h 12min

  We’re proud to release this ahead of Ryan’s keynote at AIE Europe. Hit the bell, get notified when it is live! Attendees: come prepped for Ryan’s AMA with Vibhu after.Move over, context engineering. Now it’s time for Harness engineering and the age of the token billionaires.Ryan Lopopolo of OpenAI is leading that charge, recently publishing a lengthy essay on Harness Eng that has become the talk of the town:In it, Ryan peeled back the curtains on how the recently announced OpenAI Frontier team have become OpenAI’s top Codex users, running a >1m LOC codebase with 0 human written code and, crucially for the Dark Factory fans, no human REVIEWED code before merge. Ryan is admirably evangelical about this, calling it borderline “negligent” if you aren’t using >1B tokens a day (roughly $2-3k/day in token spend based on market rates and caching assumptions):Over the past five months, they ran an extreme experiment: building and shipping an internal beta product with zero manually written code. Through the experiment, they adopted a different model of engineering work: when the agent failed, instead of prompting it better or to “try harder,” the team would look at “what capability, context, or structure is missing?”The result was Symphony, “a ghost library” and reference Elixir implementation (by Alex Kotliarskyi) that sets up a massive system of Codex agents all extensively prompted with the specificity of a proper PRD spec, but without full implementation:The future starts taking shape as one where coding agents stop being copilots and start becoming real teammates anyone can use and Codex is doubling down on that mission with their Superbowl messaging of “you can just build things”.Across Codex, internal observability stacks, and the multi-agent orchestration system his team calls Symphony, Ryan has been pushing what happens when you optimize an entire codebase, workflow, and organization around agent legibility instead of human habit.We sat down with Ryan to dig into how OpenAI’s internal teams actually use Codex, why the real bottleneck in AI-native software development is now human attention rather than tokens, how fast build loops, observability, specs, and skills let agents operate autonomously, why software increasingly needs to be written for the model as much as for the engineer, and how Frontier points toward a future where agents can safely do economically valuable work across the enterprise.We discuss:* Ryan’s background from Snowflake, Brex, Stripe, and Citadel to OpenAI Frontier Product Exploration, where he works on new product development for deploying agents safely at enterprise scale* The origin of “harness engineering” and the constraint that kicked off the whole experiment: Ryan deliberately refused to write code himself so the agent had to do the job end to end* Building an internal product over five months with zero lines of human-written code, more than a million lines in the repo, and thousands of PRs across multiple Codex model generations* Why early Codex was painfully slow at first, and how the team learned to decompose tasks, build better primitives, and gradually turn the agent into a much faster engineer than any individual human* The obsession with fast build times: why one minute became the upper bound for the inner loop, and how the team repeatedly retooled the build system to keep agents productive* Why humans became the bottleneck, and how Ryan’s team shifted from reviewing code directly to building systems, observability, and context that let agents review, fix, and merge work autonomously* Skills, docs, tests, markdown trackers, and quality scores as ways of encoding engineering taste and non-functional requirements directly into context the agent can use* The shift from predefined scaffolds to reasoning-model-led workflows, where the harness becomes the box and the model chooses how to proceed* Symphony, OpenAI’s internal Elixir-based orchestration layer for spinning up, supervising, reworking, and coordinating large numbers of coding agents across tickets and repos* Why code is increasingly disposable, why worktrees and merge conflicts matter less when agents can resolve them, and what it really means to fully delegate the PR lifecycle* “Ghost libraries”, spec-driven software, and the idea that a coding agent can reproduce complex systems from a high-fidelity specification rather than shared source code* The broader future of Frontier: safely deploying observable, governable agents into enterprises, and building the collaboration, security, and control layers needed for real-world agentic workRyan Lopopolo* X: https://x.com/_lopopolo* Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanlopopolo/* Website: https://hyperbo.la/contact/Timestamps00:00:00 Introduction: Harness Engineering and OpenAI Frontier00:02:20 Ryan’s background and the “no human-written code” experiment00:08:48 Humans as the bottleneck: systems thinking, observability, and agent workflows00:12:24 Skills, scaffolds, and encoding engineering taste into context00:17:17 What humans still do, what agents already own, and why software must be agent-legible00:24:27 Delegating the PR lifecycle: worktrees, merge conflicts, and non-functional requirements00:31:57 Spec-driven software, “ghost libraries,” and the path to Symphony00:35:20 Symphony: orchestrating large numbers of coding agents00:43:42 Skill distillation, self-improving workflows, and team-wide learning00:50:04 CLI design, policy layers, and building token-efficient tools for agents00:59:43 What current models still struggle with: zero-to-one products and gnarly refactors01:02:05 Frontier’s vision for enterprise AI deployment01:08:15 Culture, humor, and teaching agents how the company works01:12:29 Harness vs. training, Codex model progress, and “you can just do things”01:15:09 Bellevue, hiring, and OpenAI’s expansion beyond San FranciscoTranscriptRyan Lopopolo: I do think that there is an interesting space to explore here with Codex, the harness, as part of building AI products, right? There’s a ton of momentum around getting the models to be good at coding. We’ve seen big leaps in like the task complexity with each incremental model release where if you can figure out how to collapse a product that you’re trying to.Build a user journey that you’re trying to solve into code. It’s pretty natural to use the Codex Harness to solve that problem for you. It’s done all the wiring and lets you just communicate in prompts. To let the model cook, you have to step back, right? Like you need to take a systems thinking mindset to things and constantly be asking, where is the Asian making mistakes?Where am I spending my time? How can I not spend that time going forward? And then build confidence in the automation that I’m putting in place. So I have solved this part of the SDLC.swyx: [00:01:00] All right.[00:01:03] Meet Ryan swyx: We’re in the studio with Ryan from OpenAI. Welcome.Ryan Lopopolo: Hi,swyx: Thanks for visiting San Francisco and thanks for spending some time with us.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah, thank you. I’m super excited to be here.swyx: You wrote a blockbuster article on harness engineering. It’s probably going to be the defining piece of this emerging discipline, huh?Ryan Lopopolo: Thank you. It is it’s been fun to feel like we’ve defined the discourse in some sense.swyx: Let’s contextualize a little bit, this first podcast you’ve ever done. Yes. And thank you for spending with us. What is, where is this coming from? What team are you in all that jazz?Ryan Lopopolo: Sure, sure.Ryan Lopopolo: I work on Frontier Product Exploration, new product development in the space of OpenAI Frontier, which is our enterprise platform for deploying agents safely at scale, with good governance in any business. And. The role of VMI team has been to figure out novel ways to deploy our models into package and products that we can sell as solutions to enterprises.swyx: And you have a background, I’ll just squeeze it in there. Snowflake, brick, [00:02:00] stripe, citadel.Ryan Lopopolo: Yes. Yes. Same. Any kind of customerswyx: entire life. Yes. The exact kind of customer that you want to,Vibhu: so I’ll say, I was actually, I didn’t expect the background when I looked at your Twitter, I’m seeing the opposite.Stuff like this. So you’ve got the mindset of like full send AI, coding stuff about slop, like buckling in your laptop on your Waymo’s. Yes. And then I look at your profile, I’m like, oh, you’re just like, you’re in the other end too. Oh, perfect. Makes perfect.Ryan Lopopolo: I it’s quite fun to be AI maximalist if you’re gonna live that persona.Open eye is the place to do it. And it’sswyx: token is what you say.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. Certainly helps that we have no rate limits internally. And I can go, like you said, full send at this stay.swyx: Yeah. Yeah. So the Frontier, and you’re a special team within O Frontier.Ryan Lopopolo: We had been given some space to cook, which has been super, super exciting.[00:02:47] Zero Code ExperimentRyan Lopopolo: And this is why I started with kind of a out there constraint to not write any of the code myself. I was figuring if we’re trying to make agents that can be deployed into end to enterprises, they should be [00:03:00] able to do all the things that I do. And having worked with these coding models, these coding harnesses over 6, 7, 8 months, I do feel like the models are there enough, the harnesses are there enough where they’re isomorphic to me in capability and the ability to do the job.So starting with this constraint of I can’t write the code meant that the only way I could do my job was to get the agent to do my job.Vibhu: And like a, just a bit of background before that. This is basically the article. So what you guys did is five months of working on an internal tool, zero lines of code over a mi, a million lines of code in the total code base.You say it was cenex, more like it was cenex faster than you would’ve. If you had done it by end. SoRyan Lopopolo: yeah, thatVibhu: was the mindset going into this, right?Ryan Lopopolo: That’s right.[00:03:46] Model Upgrades LessonsRyan Lopopolo: Started with some of the very first versions of Codex CLI, with the Codex Mini model, which was obviously much less capable than the ones we have today.Which was also a very good constraint, right? Quite a visceral feeling to ask the [00:04:00] model to build you a product feature. And it just not being able to assemble the pieces together.Which kind of defined one of the mindsets we had for going into this, which is whenever the model just cannot, you always pop open at the task, double click into it, and build smaller building blocks that then you can reassemble into the broader objective.And it was quite painful to do this. Honestly, the first month and a half was. 10 times slower than I would be. But because we paid that cost, we ended up getting to something much more productive than any one engineer could be because we built the tools, the assembly station for the agent to do the whole thing.[00:04:43] Model Generations, Build Systems & Background ShellsRyan Lopopolo: But yeah, so onward to G BT 5, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 5 4. To go through all these model generations and see their kind of corks and different working styles also meant we had to adapt the code base to change things up when the model was revved. [00:05:00] One interesting thing here is five two, the Codex harness at the time did not have background shells in it, which means we were able to rely on blocking scripts to perform long horizon work.But with five, three and background shells, it became less patient, less willing to block. So we had to retool the entire build system to complete in under a minute and. This is not a thing I would expect to be able to do in a code base where people have opinions. But because the only goal was to make the Asian productive over the course of a week, we went from a bespoke make file build to Basil, to turbo to nx and just left it there because builds were fast at that point.swyx: Interesting. Talk more about Turbo TenX. That’s interesting ‘cause that’s the other direction that other people have been doing.Ryan Lopopolo: Ultimately I have. Not a lot of experience with actual frontend repo architecture.swyx: You’re talking that Jessica built the sky. So I’m like, I know the NX team. I know Turbo from Jared [00:06:00] Palmer.And I’m like, yeah, that’s an interesting comparison.[00:06:02] One Minute Build LoopRyan Lopopolo: The hill we were climbing right, was make it fast.swyx: Is there a micro front end involved? Is it how how complex reactRyan Lopopolo: electron base single app sort of thingswyx: And must be under a minute. That’s an interesting limitation. I’m actually not super familiar with the background shelf stuff.Probably was talked about in the fight three release.Ryan Lopopolo: BA basically means that codex is able to spawn commands in the background and then go continue to work while it waits for them to finish. So it can spawn an expensive build and then continue reviewing the code, for example.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: And this helps it be more time efficient for the user invoking the harness.swyx: And I guess and just to really nail this, like what does one minute matter? Like why not five, okay, good. We want no. WeRyan Lopopolo: want the inner loop to be as fast as possible. Okay. One minute was just a nice round number and we were able to hit it.swyx: And if it doesn’t complete, it kills it or some something,Ryan Lopopolo: No.We just take that as a signal that we need to stop what we’re doing, double click, decompose a build graph a bit to get us to high back under so that we [00:07:00] can able the agent continue to operate.swyx: It’s almost like you’re, it’s like a ratchet. It’s like you’re forcing build time discipline, because if you don’t, it’ll just grow and grow.That’s right. And you mentioned that my current, like the software I work on currently is at 12 minutes. It sucks.Ryan Lopopolo: This has been my experience with platform teams in the past, where you have an envelope of acceptable build times and you let it go up to breach and then you spend two, three weeks to bring it back down to the lower end of the average low bed stop.But because tokens are so cheap Yeah. And we’re so insanely parallel with the model, we can just constantly be gardening this thing to make sure that we maintain these in variants, which means. There’s way less dispersion in the code and the SDLC, which means we can simplify in a way and rely on a lot more in variance as we write the software.[00:07:45] Observability, Traces & Local Dev StackVibhu: Lovely.[00:07:46] Humans Are BottleneckVibhu: You mentioned in your article, like humans became the bottleneck, right? You kicked off as a team of three people. You’re putting out a million line of code, like 1500 prs, basically. What’s the mindset there? So as much as code is disposable, you’re doing a lot of review. A lot [00:08:00] of the article talks about how you wanna rephrase everything is prompting everything, is what the agent can’t see.It’s kind of garbage, right? You shouldn’t have it in there. So what’s like the high level of how you went about building it, and then how you address okay, humans are just PR review. Like how is human in the loop for this?Ryan Lopopolo: We’ve moved beyond even the humans reviewing the code as well.[00:08:19] Human Review, PR Automation & Agent Code ReviewRyan Lopopolo: Most of the human review is post merge at this point.But post, post merge, that’s not even reviewed. That’s justswyx: Oh, let’s just make ourselves happy by YouRyan Lopopolo: haven’t used fundamentally. The model is trivially paralyzable, right? As many GPUs and tokens as I am willing to spend, I can have capacity to work with my hood base.The only fundamentally scarce thing is the synchronous human attention of my team. There’s only so many hours in the day we have to eat lunch. I would like to sleep, although it’s quite difficult to, stop poking the machine because it makes me want to feed it. You have to step back, right?Like you need to take a systems thinking mindset to things and [00:09:00] constantly be asking where is the agent making mistakes? Where am I spending my time? How can I not spend that time going forward? And then build confidence in the automation that I’m putting in place. So I have solved this part of the SDLC, and usually what that has looked like is like we started needing to pay very close attention to the code because the agent did not have the right building blocks to produce.Modular software that decomposed appropriately that was reliable and observable and actually accrued a working front end in these things, right?[00:09:35] Observability First SetupRyan Lopopolo: So in order to not spend all of our time sitting in front of a terminal at most, doing one or two things at a time, invested in giving the model that observability, which is that that graph in the post here.swyx: Yeah. Let’s walk through this traces and which existed firstRyan Lopopolo: we started with just the app and the whole rest of it. From vector through to all these login metrics, APIs was, I dunno, half an [00:10:00] afternoon of my time. We have intentionally chosen very high level fast developer tools. There’s a ton of great stuff out there now.We use me a bunch, which makes it trivial to pull down all these go written Victoria Stack binaries in our local development. Tiny little bit of python glue to spin all these up. And off you go. One neat thing here is we have tried to invert things as much as possible, which is instead of setting up an environment to spawn the coding agent into, instead we spawn the coding agent, like that’s the entry point.It’s just Codex. And then we give Codex via skills and scripts the ability to boot the stack if it chooses to, and then tell it how to set some end variables. So the app and local Devrel points at this stack that it has chosen to spin up. And this I think is like the fundamental difference between reasoning models and the four ones and four ohs of the past, where these models could not think so you had to put them in [00:11:00] boxes with a predefined set of state transitions.Whereas here we have the model, the harness be the whole box. And give it a bunch of options for how to proceed with enough context for it to make intelligent choices. SoVibhu: sales, so like a lot of that is around scaffolding, right? Yes. Previous agents, you would define a scaffold. It would operate in that.Lube, try again. That’s pivoted off from when we’ve had reasoning models. They’re seeming to perform better when you don’t have a scaffold, right? That’s right.[00:11:28] Docs Skills GuardrailsVibhu: And you go into like niches here too, like your SPEC MD and like having a very short agent MG Agent md.swyx: Yes. Yes.Vibhu: Yeah. So you even lay out what it is here, but I likeswyx: the table contents.Vibhu: Yeah.swyx: Like stuff like this, it really helps guide people because everyone’s trying to do this.Ryan Lopopolo: This structure also makes it super cheap to put new content into the repository to steer both the humans and the agents.swyx: You, you reinvented skills, right?Vibhu: One big agents andswyx: skills from first princip holdsRyan Lopopolo: all skills did not exist when we started doing this.Vibhu: You have a short [00:12:00] one 100 line overall table of contents and then you have little skills, right? Core beliefs, MD tech tracker. Yeah. Yeah. The scale is overRyan Lopopolo: The tech jet tracker and the quality score are pretty interesting because this is basically a tiny little scaffold, like a markdown table, which is a hook for Codex to review all the business logic that we have defined in the app, assess how it matches all these documented guardrails and propose follow up work for itself.Before beads and all these ticketing systems, we were just tracking follow up work as notes in a markdown file, which, we could spa an agent on Aron to burn down. There’s this really neat thing that like the models fundamentally crave text. So a lot of what we have done here is figure out ways to inject textswyx: intoRyan Lopopolo: the system right when we get a page, because we’re missing a timeout, for example.I can just add Codex in Slack on that page and say, I’m gonna fix this by adding a timeout. Please update our reliability documentation. To require that all network calls have [00:13:00] timeouts. So I have not only made a point in time fix, but also like durably encoded this process knowledge around what good looks like.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: And we give that to the root coding agent as it goes and does the thing. But you can also use that to distill tests out of, or a code review agent, which is pointed at the same things to narrow the acceptable universe of the code that’s produced.swyx: I think one of the concerns I have with that kind of stuff is you think you’re making the right call by making, it’s persisted for all time across everything.Yes. But then you didn’t think about the exceptions that you need to make, right? And that you have to roll it back.Vibhu: Part of it isswyx: also sometimes it can follow your s instructions too.Vibhu: It’s somewhat a skill, right? So it determines when it uses the tools, right? Like it’s not like it’ll run outta every call.It’ll determine when it wants to check quality score, right?Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. And we do in the prompts we give these agents, allow them to push back,[00:13:51] Agent Code Review RulesRyan Lopopolo: When we first started adding code review agents to the pr, it would be Codex, CLI. Locally writes the change, pushes up a PR on [00:14:00] those PR synchronizations of review agent fires.It posts a comment. We instruct Codex that it has to at least acknowledge and respond to that feedback. And initially the Codex driving the code author was willing to be bullied by the PR reviewer, which meant you could end up in a situation where things were not converging. So yeah, we had to,swyx: he’s just a thrash.Ryan Lopopolo: We had to add more optionality to the prompts on both of these things, right? The reviewer agents were instructed to bias toward merging the thing to not surface anything greater than a P two in priority. We didn’t really define P two, but we gave it, youswyx: did define P two.Ryan Lopopolo: We gave it a framework within which to score its outputswyx: and then greater than P zero is worse, right?Yes. P two is very good.Ryan Lopopolo: P zero is you will mute the code place ifswyx: you merch thisRyan Lopopolo: thing, right?swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: But also on the code authoring agent side, we also gave it the flexibility to either defer or push back against review feedback, right? This happens all the time, right? Like I happen to notice something and leave a code review, [00:15:00] which.Could blow up the scope by a factor of two. I usually don’t mean for that to be addressed Exactly. In the moment. It’s more of an FYI file it to the backlog, pick it up in the next fix it week sort of thing. And without the context that this is permissible, the coding agents are gonna bias toward what they do, which is following instructions.swyx: Yeah.[00:15:19] Autonomous Merging Flowswyx: I do wanted to check in on a couple things, right? Sure. All the coding review agent, it can merge autonomously. I think that’s something that a lot of people aren’t comfortable with. And you have a list here of how much agents do they do Product code and tests, CI configuration and release tooling, internal Devrel tools, documentation eval, harness review, comments, scripts that manage the repository itself, production dashboard definition files, like everything.Yes. And so they’re just all churning at the same time, is there like a record that, that any human on the team pulls to stop everythingRyan Lopopolo: Because we are building a native application here. We’re not doing continuous deploy. So there’s still a human in the loop for cutting the release branch.I see. We require a blessed [00:16:00] human approved smoke test of the app before we promote it to distribution, these sort of things.swyx: So you’re working on the app, you’re not building like infrastructure where you have like nines of reliability, that kinda stuff?Ryan Lopopolo: That’s correct. That’s correct. Okay. And also like full recognition here that all of this activity took in a completely greenfield repository.There’s. Should be no script that this applies generally toswyx: this is a production thing, you’re gonna shipRyan Lopopolo: toswyx: customers. Of course. Yeah, of course. So this is realVibhu: And like one of the things there is, you mentioned you started this as a repo from scratch. The onboarding first month or so was pretty, it was like working backwards, right?Yeah. And then you had to work with the system and now you’re at that point where you know, you’re very autonomous. I’m curious like, okay, so what, how human in the loop is it? So what are the bottlenecks that you wish you could still automate? And part of that is also like, where do you see the model trajectory improving and offloading more human in the loop?We just got 5.4. It’s a really good,Ryan Lopopolo: fantastic model, by the way.Vibhu: Yeah. Yeah. It’s the first one that’s merged. Top tier coding. So it’s codex level coding and reasoning. So general reasoning both in one model. SoRyan Lopopolo: andVibhu: computer [00:17:00] use vision.Ryan Lopopolo: Now we now with five four, I can just have Codex write the blog post, whereas for this one I had to balance between chat.swyx: Oh, I need to, I might be out of a job. Oh my God.Ryan Lopopolo: Oh,swyx: I know. You just gave me an idea for a completely AI newsletter that five four could do. Yeah, I get it Now.Ryan Lopopolo: This sort of thing is just one example of closing the loop, right? Like the dashboard thing you mentioned. We have Codex authoring the Js ON, for the Grafana dashboards and publishing them and also responding to the pages, which means when it gets the page, it knows exactly which dashboards are defined and what alerts.What alert was triggered by which exact log in the code base. ‘cause all of this stuff is collated together.swyx: It has to own everything.Yes. Yeah. Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: And it means that if we have an outage that did not result in a page. It has the existing set of dashboards available to it. It has the existing set of metrics and logs and can figure out where the gaps in the dashboard are or [00:18:00] in the underlying metrics and fix them in one go.In the same way, you would have a full stack engineer be able to drive a feature from the backend all the way to the front end.Vibhu: So it, it seems like a lot of the work you guys had to do was you as a small team are fully working for a way that the model wants the software to be written. It’s like less human legible for better. Code legibility, agent legibility. How do you think that affects broader teams? So one at OpenAI, do liaison, like this is how software should be written. Like I can imagine, say you join a new team with this methodology, this mindset there’s ways that, teams do code review, teams write code, like teams are structured and a lot of it is for human legibility.So should we all swap? Like how does this play back one broader into OpenAI and then like broader into the software engineering, right? Is it like teams that pick this up will it’s pretty drastic, right? You have to make a pretty big switch. Should they just full send Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: The mindset is very much that I’m removed from the process, right? I can’t really have deep code level opinions about [00:19:00] things. It’s as if I’m. Group tech leading a 500 person organization.Vibhu: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Like it’s not appropriate for me to be in the weeds on every pr. This is why that post merge code review thing is like a good analog here, right?Like I have some representative sample of the code as it is written, and I have to use that to infer what the teams are struggling with, where they could use help, where they’re already moving quickly and I can pivot my focus elsewhere.Vibhu: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: So I don’t really have too many opinions around the code as it is written.I do, however, have a command based class, which is used to have repeatable chunks of business logic that comes with tracing and metrics and observability for free. And the thing to focus on is not how that business logic is structured, but that it uses this primitive ‘cause I know that’s gonna give leverage by default.Vibhu: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah, back to that sort of systems stinking,Vibhu: and you have part of that in your blog post, enforcing architecture and ta taste how you set boundaries for what’s used. There’s also a section on redefining [00:20:00] engineering and stuff, but yeah, it’s just, it’s interesting to hear,Ryan Lopopolo: and as the models have gotten better, they have gotten better at proposing these abstractions to unblock themselves, which again, lets me move higher and higher up the stack to look deeper into the future on what ultimately blocked the team from shipping.swyx: Yeah. You mentioned so you, this is primarily a, it is like a 1 million line of code base electron app. But it manages its own services as well, so it’s like a backend for front end type thing.Ryan Lopopolo: We do have a backend in there, but that’s hosted in the cloud.Yeah. This sort of structure is actually within the separate main and render processesWithin theswyx: electric.That’s just how electronic works.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah, of course. So have also treated like. MVC style decomposition with the same level of rigor, which has been very fun.swyx: I have a fun pun. This is a tangent, NVC is model view controller. Any sort of full stack web Devrel knows that.But my AI native version of this is Model view Claw, the clause the harness.Ryan Lopopolo: That’s right. That’s right. I do think that there is an interesting space to [00:21:00] explore here with Codex, the harness as part of building AI products, right? There’s a ton of momentum around getting the models to be good at coding.We’ve seen big leaps in like the task complexity with each incremental model release where if you can figure out how to collapse a product that you’re trying to build, a user journey that you’re trying to solve into code, it’s pretty natural to use the Codex Harness to solve that problem for you. It’s done all the wiring and lets you just communicate and prompts to let the model cook.Yeah. It’s been very fun. And there’s also a very engineering legible way of increasing capabil. It’s fantastic, right? Yeah. Just give you, just give the model scripts, the same scripts you would already build for yourself.swyx: Yeah.Yeah. So for listeners, this is Ryan saying that software engineering or coding against will eat knowledge work like the non-coding parts that you would normally think.Oh, you have to build a separate agent for it. No, start a coding agent and go out from there. Which open Claw has like it’s pie Underhood.Ryan Lopopolo: [00:22:00] Yes.Vibhu: Basically define your task in code. Everything is a codingswyx: agent by the way. Since I brought it up, it’s probably the only place we bring it up. Is any open claw usage from you?Any?Ryan Lopopolo: No. No. Not for me. I don’t have any spare Mac Minis rattling around my house.swyx: You can afford it? No. I just, I’m curious if it’s changed anything in opening eye yet, but it’s probably early days. And then the other, the other thing I, I wanna pull on here is like you mentioned ticketing systems and you mentioned prs and I’m wondering if both those things have to go away or be reinvented for this kind of coding.So the git itself and is like very hostile to multi-agent.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. We make very heavy use of work trees.swyx: But like even then, like I just did a, dropped a podcast yesterday with Cursors saying, and they said they’re getting rid of work trees ‘cause it still has too many merge conflicts.It’s still un too un unintuitive. But go ahead.Ryan Lopopolo: The models are really great at resolving merge conflicts. Yeah. And to get to a state where I’m not synchronously in the loop in my terminal, I almost don’t care that there are mergeswyx: with disposable.[00:23:00] Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: We invoke a dollar land skill and that coaches codex to push the PR Wait for human and agent reviewers Wait for CI to be green.Fix the flakes if there are any merged upstream. If the PR comes into conflict, wait for everything to pass. Put it in the merge queue. Deal with flakes until it’s in Maine. End. This is what it means to delegate fully, right? This is in a, very large model re probably a significant tax on humans to get PRS merged, but the agent is more than capable of doing this and I really don’t have to think about it other than keep my laptop open.swyx: Yeah. I used to be much more of a control freak, but now I’m like, yeah, actually you could do a better job of this than me. Yeah. With the right context. Yes.[00:23:47] Encoding Requirementsswyx: Anything else in harness in general? Just this piece, I just wanna make sure we,Ryan Lopopolo: I think one thing that I maybe didn’t make super clear in the article that I heard on Twitter as an interesting, that’s respond [00:24:00]swyx: to them.What’s the chatter and then what’s your response?Ryan Lopopolo: Ultimately, all the things that we have encoded in docs and tests and review agents and all these things are ways to put all the non-functional requirements of building high scale, high quality, reliable software into a space that prompt injects the agent.We either write it down as docs, we add links where the error messages tell how to do the right thing. So the whole meta of the thing is to basically tease out of the heads of all the engineers on my team, what they think good looks like, what they would do by default, or what they would coach a new hire on the team to do to get things to merch.And that’s why we pay attention to all the mistakes, mistakes that the agent makes, right? This is code being written that is misaligned with some as yet not written down, non-functional requirement.swyx: Sorry, what? Did the online people misunderstand orRyan Lopopolo: No,swyx: whatyouRyan Lopopolo: responded to? Somebody just literally said that.I was like, oh yeah,swyx: okay,Ryan Lopopolo: This is the [00:25:00] thing. This is what I’ve been doing. Oh, youswyx: agree? Yeah. I see. Interesting.Ryan Lopopolo: One other neat thing, which I did totally did not expect is folks were just. Taking the link to the article and giving it to pi or Codex and say, make my repo this,Vibhu: you achi a whole recursion.Ryan Lopopolo: And it was wildly effective. Really? It was wildly effective. NoVibhu: way. It just actually is something I tried with five, four yesterday. I didn’t have time. Last time I was like out speaking of something, and this is one of my things, I was like, okay, I have this article. Can we just scaffold out what it would be like to run this?And I, I did it first as that and then I was like, okay, let me take another little side repo and say okay, if I was to fully automate this like this because I haven’t written a line of code, it’sRyan Lopopolo: like over full, setVibhu: it right. The side thing I’m doing of voice. TTS I’m just like, slobbing out, whatever.It’s nothing production. I’m like, how would I make this like this? And it’s actually like a really good way. It’s like a good way to learn what could be changed, what could be like, it’s just a good analyzing, right? You give it all the codes, you give it all the context, you give it the article and it walks you through it very well.That’s right. That’s right.[00:25:57] Inlining Dependencies[00:25:57] Dependencies Going Away & Brett Taylor’s Responseswyx: I guess one more thing before we go to Symphony is I wanted to cover [00:26:00] Brett Taylor’s response. We had him on the show. He is your chairman, which is wild. Yeah. That he’s reading your articles as well and like getting engaged in it. He says software dependencies are going away.Basically they can just be like vendored. Yes. Response.Ryan Lopopolo: Aswyx: hundred percent. A hundred percent agree. You still pro qr, you still pay Datadog. You still pay Temporal. Thank you.Ryan Lopopolo: Yep. The level of complexity of the dependencies that we can internalize is, I would say low, medium right now. Just based on model capability.What does the,swyx: what is medium?Ryan Lopopolo: I would say like a. A couple thousand line dependency is a thing that we could in-house No problem. Call in an afternoon of time. One neat thing about it is like probably most of that code you don’t even need. Like by in-house and abstraction, you can strip away all the generic parts of it and only focus on what you need to enable the specific thing.Yes. You’re building,swyx: I’ve been calling this the end of b******t plugins.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah.swyx: Because there’s so much when I published an open source thing, I want to accept everything, be liberal. I want to accept, this is post’s law, but that means there’s so much bloat. Yes. There’s so much overhead.Ryan Lopopolo: One other neat thing about [00:27:00] this too is when we deploy Codex Security on the repo, it is able to deeply review and change. The internalized dependencies in a much lower friction way than it would be to like, push patches upstream, wait for them to be released, pull them down, make sure that’s compatible with all the transitive I have in my repo and things like that.So it’s also much lower friction to internalize some of these things if code is free. ‘cause the tokens are cheap sort of thing.swyx: Yeah. Yeah. I think like the only argument I have against this is basically scale testing, which obviously the larger pieces of software like Linux, MySQL, he calls up even the Datadog and Temporals and then maybe security testing where Yes.Classically, I think, is it linis tos, it said security open source is the best disinfectant.Ryan Lopopolo: Many eyes.swyx: Many eyes. And if inline your dependencies and code them up, you’re gonna have to relearn mistakes from other people that Yep.Ryan Lopopolo: Yep. And to internalize that dependency, you’re back to zero and you have to start.Reassembling all those bits and pieces to Yeah. Have [00:28:00] high confidence in the code as it is written. Yeah.Vibhu: Even part of the first intro of this, you basically mentioned like everything was written by codex, including internal tooling, right? So internal tooling, like when you’re visualizing what’s going on it’s writing it for itself.swyx: Yeah. I’m built internal tools way I now, and like I just show them off and they’re like, how long did you spend? And I didn’t spend any time. I just prompted it,Ryan Lopopolo: very funny story here.swyx: Yeah, go ahead.Ryan Lopopolo: We had deployed our app to the first dozen users internally had some performance issues, so we asked them to export a trace for us get a tar ball, gave it to our on-call engineer, and he did a fantastic job of working with Codex to build this beautiful local Devrel tool, next JS app, the drag and drop the tar ball in, and it visualizes the entire trace.It’s fantastic. Took an afternoon, but none of this was necessary. Because you could just spin up codex and give it the tar ball and ask the same thing and get the response immediately. So in a way, optimizing for human [00:29:00] legibility of that debugging process was wrong. It kept him in the loop unnecessarily when instead he could have just like Codex cooked for five minutes and gotten this same.swyx: Yeah, you verify your instincts here of this is how we used to do it. Or this is how I would have used to solve it.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. In this local observability stack. Like sure, you can de deploy Yeager to visualize the traces, but I wouldn’t expect to be looking at the traces in the first place because I’m not gonna write the code to fix them.swyx: Yeah. So basically there needs to be like this kind of house stack and owning the whole loop. I think that is very well established. And it sounds like you might be like sharing more about that in the future, right?Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. I think we’re excited to do[00:29:36] Ghost Libraries Specs[00:29:36] Ghost Libraries & Distributing Software as SpecsRyan Lopopolo: We’re gonna talk about Symphony in a little bit, but like the way we distribute it as a spec, which I think folks are calling Ghost Libraries on Twitter.This is like a such a cool name. It does mean it becomes much cheaper to share software with the world, right? You define a spec, how you could build your own specifying as much as is required for a coding agent to reassemble it [00:30:00] locally. The flow here is very cool. Like we have taken. All the scaffolding that has existed in our proprietary repo spun up a new one.Ask Codex with our repo as a reference. Write the spec. We tell it. Spin up a team ox spawn a disconnected codex to implement the spec. Wait for it to be done. Spawn another codex and another team ox to review the spec com or review the implementation compared to upstream and update the spec so it diverges less.And then you just loop over and over Ralph style until you get a spec that is with high fidelity able to reproduce the system as it is. It’s fantastic.Vibhu: And you’re basically, you’re not really adding any of your human bias in there, right? That’s correct. A lot of times people write a spec and be like, okay, I think it should be done this way, and you’ll riff on something.And it’s no, the agent could have just handled it like you’re still scaffolding in a sense, right? I want it done this way. It can determine its spec better.swyx: That’s right. That’s right. Part of me it, I’m, I’ve been working a lot on evals recently, and part of me is wondering if [00:31:00] an agent can produce a spec that it cannot solve.Is it always capable of things that he can imagine or can you imagine things that it is impossible to do?Ryan Lopopolo: I think with Symphony, we, there’s like this there’s this axis where you have things that are easier, hard, or established or new, right? And I think things that are hard and new is still something that the models need humans.Yeah. Drive.swyx: Yeah. Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: But I think those other quadrants are largely salt. Given the right scaffold and the right thing that’s gonna drive the agent to completion,swyx: it’s crazy that it solved,Ryan Lopopolo: but it means that the humans, the ones with limited time and attention get to work on the hardest stuff, like the problems where it’s pure white space out in front. Or like the deepest refactorings where you don’t know what the proper shape of the interfaces are. And this is where I wanna spend my time. ‘cause it lets me set up for the next level of scale.swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Amazing. Let’s introduce Symphony.I think we’ve been mentioning it every now and then. Elixir. Interesting option.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah.swyx: Yeah. I’m not,Ryan Lopopolo: again, like the [00:32:00] elixir manifestation here is just a derivative. Is it a modelswyx: chosen? Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. Yeah. And it chose that because the process supervision and the gen servers are super amenable to the type of process orchestration that we’re doing here.You are essentially spinning up little Damons for every task that is in execution and driving it to completion, which. Means the mall gets a ton of stuff for free by using Elixir and the Beam.swyx: I had to go do a crash course in Beam and Elixir, and I think most people are not operating at that scale of concurrency where you need that.But it is a good mental model for Resum ability and all those things. And these are things I care about. But tell me the story, the origin story of Symphony. What do you use it for? Is this, how did it form maybe any abandoned paths that you didn’t take?[00:32:46] Terminal Free Orchestration[00:32:46] Symphony: Removing Humans from the LoopRyan Lopopolo: At the end of December we were at about three and a half PRS per engineer per day.This was before five two came out in the beginning of January. Everyone gets back from holiday with five two and no other work [00:33:00] on the repository. We were up in the five to 10 PRS per day per engineer. And I don’t know about y’all, but like it’s very taxing to constantly be switching like that. Like I was pretty tapped out at the end of the day, again, where are the humans spending their time? They’re spending their time context switching between all these active tmox pains to drive the agent forward.swyx: Yeah. No way. Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: So let’s again, build something to remove ourselves from the loop. And this is what frantic sprinted adapt here to find a way to remove the need for the human to sit in front of their terminal.So a lot of experimentation with Devrel boxes and, automatically spinning up agents, like it seems like a fantastic end state here, where my life is beach. I open live twice a day and say yes no to these things. Yeah. And this is again, a super, super interesting framing for how the work is done.Because I become more latency and sensitive. I have [00:34:00] way less attachment to the code as it is written. Like I’ve had close to zero investment in the actual authorship experience. So if it’s garbage. I can just throw it away and not care too much about it. In Symphony, there’s this like rework state where once the PR is proposed and it’s escalated to the human for review, it should be a cheap review.It is either mergeable or it is not. And if it’s not, you move it to rework. The elixir service will completely trash the entire work tree NPR and start it again from scratch. Okay. And this is that opportunity again to say, why was it trash right? What did the agent do that wasswyx: bad. Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Fix that before moving the ticket toswyx: endRyan Lopopolo: of progress again.swyx: Yeah. Why is this not in codex app? I guess this, you guys are ahead of Codex app,Ryan Lopopolo: yeah, so the way the team has been working is basically to be as AI pilled as possible and spread ahead. And a lot of the things we have worked on have fallen out [00:35:00] into a lot of the products that we have.Like we were in deep consultation with the Codex team to. Have the Codex app be a thing that exists, right? To have skills be a thing that Codex is able to use. So we didn’t have to roll our own to put automations into the product. So all of our automatic refactoring agents didn’t have to be these hand rolled control loops.It has been really fantastic to be, in a way, un anchored to the product development of Frontier and Codex and just very quickly try to figure out what works and then later find the scalable thing that can be deployed widely. It’s been a very fun way to operate. It’s certainly chaotic. I have lost track very often of what the actual state of the code looks like.‘cause I’m not in the loop. There was. One point where we had wired playwright directly up to the Electron app. With MCPM CCPs, I’m pretty bearish on because the harness forcibly injects all those tokens in the [00:36:00] context, and I don’t really get a say over it. They mess with auto compaction. The agent can forget how to use the tool.There’s probably only what three calls in playwright that I actually ever want to use. So I pay the cost for a ton of things. Somebody vibed a local Damon that boots playwright and exposes a tiny little shim CLI to drive it. And I had zero idea that this had occurred because to me, I run Codex and it’s able to, it’s oh, it’s better.Yeah. Like no knowledge of this at all. Uhhuh.[00:36:30] Multi Human ChaosRyan Lopopolo: So we have had like in human space to spend a lot of time doing synchronous knowledge sharing. We have a daily standup that’s 45 minutes long because we almost have to. Fan out the understanding of the current state.swyx: Yeah, I was gonna say this is good for a single human multi-agent, but multi human, multi-agent is a whole like po like explosion of stuff.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. And that this is fundamentally why we have such a rigid, like 10,000 [00:37:00] engineer level architecture in the app because we have to find ways to carve up the space so people are not trampling on each other.swyx: Sorry, I don’t get the 10,000 thing. Did I miss that?Ryan Lopopolo: The structure of the repository is like 500 NPM packages.It’s like architecture to the excess for what you would consider, I think normal for a seven person team. But if every person is actually like 10 to 50. Then the like numbers on being super, super deep into decomposition and sharding and like proper interface boundaries make a lot more sense.swyx: Yeah. To me, that’s why I talked about Microfund ends and I, an anex is from that world, but Cool. It is just coming back to, to, to this I dunno if you have other, thoughts on. Orchestrating so much work coin going through this. Is this enough? Is this like any aha moments?Vibhu: It’ll be interesting to see like where, okay, so right now you pick linear as your issue tracker, right?swyx: Or it’s like a is it actually linear? This is actually linear.[00:37:55] Linear vs Slack WorkflowVibhu: Oh, that’s linear. It’s linear.swyx: Oh I never looked atVibhu: video. The demo video I had to download to [00:38:00] run.swyx: So I, because I’m a Slack maxie, but Yeah, linear. Linear is also really good. Yes,Ryan Lopopolo: we do make a good use of Slack. We we fire off codex to do all these lotion, elasticity, fix ups, the things that like sync that knowledge into the repository.It’s super cheap. Yeah.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Just do it in Codex.swyx: My biggest plug is OpenAI needs to build Slack. You need to own Slack. Build yours. Turn this into Slack.Ryan Lopopolo: I did read about it. Youswyx: did?Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah.[00:38:25] Collaboration Tools for AgentsRyan Lopopolo: I would say that if we think that we want these agents to do economically valuable work, which is like this is the mission, right?We want AI to be deployed widely, to do economically valuable work, then we need to find ways for them to naturally collaborate with humans, which means collaboration tooling, I think, is an interesting space to explore.swyx: Yeah, totally. Yeah. GitHub, slack, linear.Vibhu: Yeah, that was my thing. Okay, where do we see right now Codex has started Codex Model, then CLI, now there’s an app, app can let me shoot off multiple Codex is in parallel, but there’s no great team collaboration for Codex.And it [00:39:00] seems like your team had some say into what comes out, right? So you talked to ‘em, codex kind of was a thing. From there, if you guys are on the bound, what stuff that like, you might not focus on, but what do you expect other people to be building, right? So people that are like five x 50 Xing.Should you build stuff that’s like very niche for your workflow, for your team? Should it be more general so other people can adopt? Is there a niche there? ‘Cause part of it is just okay, is everything just internal tooling? Do we have everything our own way? Like the way our team operates has our own ways that we like to communicate or is there a broader way to do it?Is it something like a issue tracker? Just thoughts if you wanna riff on that.[00:39:35] Standardizing Skills and CodeRyan Lopopolo: I think TBD we have not figured this out in a general way. I do think that there is leverage to be had in making the code and the processes as much the same as possible. If you think that code is context, code is prompts, it’s better from the agent behavior perspective to be able to look in a package in directory X, Y, Z, and it not to have to page so [00:40:00] deeply into directory if you C, because they have the same structure, use the same language, they have the same patterns internally.And that same like leverage comes from aligning on a single set of skills that you’re pouring every engineer’s taste into to make sure that the agent is effective. So like in our code base, we have, I think, six skills. That’s it. And if some part of the software development loop is not being covered, our first attempt is to encode it in one of the existing setup skills, which means that we can change the agent behavior.Yeah. More cheaply than changing the human driver behavior.swyx: Yeah.[00:40:39] Self Improvement via Logsswyx: Have you ever, have you experimented with agents changing their own behavior?Ryan Lopopolo: We do.swyx: Yeah. Or parent agent changing a subagents, behavior or something like that.Ryan Lopopolo: We have some bits for skill distillation. So for example, there’s one neat thing you can do with Codex, which is just point it at its own session logs to ask it to tell you how you can use [00:41:00] the tool pedal better.swyx: It’s like introspectionRyan Lopopolo: or ask it to do things. I useVibhu: this session better. What skills should Iswyx: high? I like the modification of, you can do, just do things to you can just ask agent to do things.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. You can just codex things. This is like a, this is like a silly emoji that we have, right? You can just codex things, you can just prompt things.It’s really glorious future we live in, but okay, you can do that one-on-one. But we’re actually slurping these up for the entire team into blob storage and. Running agent loops over them every day to figure out where as a team can we do better and how do we reflect that back into the repositories?Yes, though everybody benefits from everybody else’s behavior for free. Same for like PR comments, right? These are all feedback. That means the code as written, deviated from what was good, a PR comment, a failed build. These are all signals that mean at some point the agent was missing context. We gotta figure out how toswyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Slurp it up and put it back in the reboot.swyx: By the way, I do this exactly right. I used to, when I use cloud code for [00:42:00] knowledge work, cloud cowork is like a nice product, right? Yes. In I think you would agree. I always have it tell me what do I do better next time? And that’s the meta programming reflection thing.So I almost think like you have six reflection extraction levels in symphony and almost like the zero of layer. So the six levels are PO policy, configuration, coordination, execution, integration, observability. We’ve talked about a couple of these, but the zero layer is like the, okay, are we working well?Can we improve how we work? Yes. Can I modify my own workflow without MD or something? I don’t know.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah, of course. Yeah, of course you can. Like this thing is also able to cut its own tickets ‘cause we give it full access.Yeah. Make it a ticket to have it cut. Tickets you can.Put in the ticket that you expect it to file as on follow up work,swyx: like Yeah. Self-modifying. Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah.[00:42:44] Tool Access and CLI FirstRyan Lopopolo: Put, don’t put the agent in a box. Give the agent full accessibility over it. Domain.swyx: I had a mental reaction when you said don’t put the agent in a box. So I think you should put it in a box. Like it’s just that you’re giving the box everything it needs.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. Context and tools.swyx: But we’re like, as developers, we’re used to calling [00:43:00] out to different systems, but here you use the open source things like the Prometheus, whatever, and you run it locally so that you can have the full loop. I assume.Ryan Lopopolo: Yep.Vibhu: I think likeRyan Lopopolo: another, you wanna minimize cloud, cloud dependencies.Vibhu: You also want to make sure that you think about what the agent has access to. What does it see? Does it go back into the loop, like from the most basic sense of you let it see its own like calls, traces it can determine where it went wrong. But are you feeding that back in? So you know, just the most basic level of you wanna see exactly what’s input output, like does the agent have access to.What is being outputted, right? It can self-improve a lot of these things. It’s allRyan Lopopolo: text, right? My job is to figure out ways to funnel text from one agent to the other.swyx: It’s so strange like way back at the start of this whole AI wave Andre was like, English is the hottest day programming language.It’s here, it’s just Yeah. The feature as well.Vibhu: A lot of, okay. Like a lot of software, a lot of stuff. There’s a gui, it’s made for the human. We’re seeing the evolution of CLI for everything, right? All tools have CLIs. Your agents can use [00:44:00] them well, do we get good vision? Do we get good little sandboxes?Like right now? It’s a really effective way, right? Models love to use tools. They love the best. They love to read through text. So slap a CLI let it go loose. That works for everything.Ryan Lopopolo: It does. Yeah. Yeah.[00:44:14] UI Perception and RasterizingRyan Lopopolo: We’ve also been adapting nont, textual things to that shape in order to improve model behavior in some ways, right?We want the agent to be able to see the UI agents do not perceive visually in the same way that we do. They don’t see a red box, they see red box button, right? They see these things in latent space. So if we want, Hey, yeah, I do. We haveswyx: a ding if that goes off every time. Alien spaceRyan Lopopolo: ding.Anyway if we wanna actually make it see the layout, it’s almost easier to rasterize that image to ask EOR and feed it in to the agent. Ha. And there’s no reason you can’t do both, right? To like further refine how the model perceives the object it’s [00:45:00] manipulating.swyx: Cool. Could we, you wanna talk about a couple more of these layers that might bear more introspection or that you have personal passion for?[00:45:07] Coordination Layer with ElixirRyan Lopopolo: I will say that the coordination layer here was a really tricky piece to get right.swyx: Let’s do it. Yep. I’m all about that. And this is Temporal core.Ryan Lopopolo: This is where when we turn the spec into Elixir, where like the model takes a shortcut, right? Like it’s oh, I have all these primitives that I can make use of in this lovely runtime that has native process supervision.Which is I think, a neat way to have taken the spec and made it more choices achievable by making choices that naturally mapswyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: To the domain, right? In the same way that like you would prefer to have a TypeScript model repo if you are doing full stack web development, right? Because the ability to share types across the front end and backend reduces a lot of complexity.And becauseswyx: that’s what graph kill used to be.Ryan Lopopolo: That’s right. Andswyx: I don’t know if it’s still alive, butRyan Lopopolo: [00:46:00] no humans in the loop here. So like my own personal ability to write or not write elixir. Doesn’t really have to bias us away from using the right tool for the job. It is just wild.swyx: Love it. I love it.Yeah. I wonder if any languages struggle more than others because of this? I feel like everyone has their own abstractions. That would make sense. But maybe it might be slower, it might be more faulty where like you’d have to just kick the server every now and then. I, I don’t know. I think observability layer is really well understood.Integration layer, CP is dead. I think all these just like a really interesting hierarchy to travel up and down. It’s common language for people working on the system to understandRyan Lopopolo: The policy stuff is really cool, right? Yeah. You don’t really have to build a bunch of code to make sure the system wait for the, to passswyx: it’s institutional knowledge.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. You just give it the G-H-C-L-I with some text that say CI has to pass. It makes the maintenance of these systems a lot easier.[00:46:57] Agent Friendly CLI Outputswyx: Do you think that CLI maintainers need to be [00:47:00] do anything special for agents or just as is? It’s good because like I don’t think when people made the G GitHub, CLI, they anticipated this happening.Ryan Lopopolo: That’s correct. The GH CLI is fantastic. It’s great super industry.swyx: Everyone go try GH repo create GH pull and then pull request number, right? GH HPR, like 1 53, whatever. And then it like pullsRyan Lopopolo: basically my only interaction with the GitHub web UI at this point is GH PR view dash web.Exactly. Glanceswyx: at the diffRyan Lopopolo: and be like Sure thing. Send it. Yeah. But the CLI are nice ‘cause they’re super token efficient and they can be made more token efficient really easily. Like I’m sure you all have seen like I go to build Kite or Jenkins and I could just get this massive wall of build output.And in order to unblock the humans, your developer productivity team is almost certainly gonna write some code that parses the actual exception out of the build logs and sticks it in a sticky note at the top of the page. And you basically [00:48:00] want CLI to be structured in a similar way, right? You’re gonna want to patch dash silent to prettier because the agent doesn’t care that every file was already formatted.Just wants to know it’s either formatted or not. So it can then go run a right command. Similarly, like in our PNPM distributed script runner, when we had one, when you do dash recursive, like it produces a absolute mountain of text. But all of that is for passing. Test suites. So we ended up wrapping all of this in another scriptswyx: to suppress the,Ryan Lopopolo: which you can vibe the channel only output the failing parts of the tests.swyx: You make a pipe errors versus the standard, standard out. I don’t know. Okay. Whatever. Too much thinking have to do that. The CII used to maintain SCLI for my company and yeah, this is like core, very core to my heart. But you’re vibing my job.Ryan Lopopolo: That’s right.swyx: Cool. Any other things?This is a long spec. [00:49:00] I appreciate that. It’s got a lot of strong opinions in here. Any other things that we should highlight? I think obviously you can spend the whole day going through some of these, but I do think that some of these have a lot of care or some of this you might wanna tell people, Hey, take this, but, make it your own.[00:49:15] Blueprint Spec and GuardrailsRyan Lopopolo: Fundamentally, software is made more flexible when it’s able to adapt to the environment in which it is deployed, which means that things like linear or GitHub even are specified within the spec, but not required pieces of it. There’s like a more platonic ideal of the thing that you could swap in like Jira or Bitbucket, for example.But being able to tightly specify things like the ID formats or how the Ralph Loop works for the individual agents. Basically means you can get up and running with a fully specified system quickly that you then evolve later on. I think we never intended for this to be a static spec that you can [00:50:00] never change.It’s more like a blueprint to get something worth a starting point up and running.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: For you then to vibe later to your heart’s content,swyx: you have like code and scripts in here where it’s oh, I think this is a really good prompt. It’s just a very long prompt.Ryan Lopopolo: Fundamentally, the agents are good at following instructions, so give them instructions.And it will, improve the reliability of the result. We, much like the way we use Symphony, we don’t want folks to have to monitor the agent as it is vibing the system into existence. So being very opinionatedVery strict around what these success criteria are means that our deployment success rate goes up. Yeah. It means we don’t have to get tickets on this thing.Vibhu: Think it all goes back to that like code to disposable, right? Like early on when you had CLI or you’d kick off a Codex run, it would take two hours. You would wanna monitor okay, I’m in the workflow of just using one.I don’t want it to go down the wrong path. I’ll cut it off and, just shoot off four, like that was my favorite thing of the Codex app, right? Yeah. Just Forex it like, [00:51:00] it’s okay. One of them will probably be right, one of them might be better. Stop overthinking it. Like my first example was probably like deep research.When you put out deep research and I’d ask it something like, I asked it something about LLM, it thought it was legal something and spent an hour, came back with a report completely off the rails. And I was like, okay, I gotta monitor this thing a bit. No don’t monitor it. Just you want to build it so it’s that it, it goes the right way.And you don’t wanna, you don’t wanna sit there and babysit, right? You don’t want to babysit your agentsRyan Lopopolo: with that deep research query that you made. Looking at the bad result, you probably figured out you needed to tweak your prompt Yeah. A bit, right? That’s that guardrail that you fed back into the code base for the task, your prompt to further align the agent’s execution.Same sort of concept supply there too.swyx: When you talk, how are the customers feelingRyan Lopopolo: for Symphony? I think we have none, right? This is a thing we have put out into theswyx: world. Symphony’s internal, right? As long as you are happy, you are the customer. That’s right. Just, what’s the external view?[00:51:53] Trust Building with PR VideosRyan Lopopolo: I’d say folks are very excited about this way of distributing software and ideas in [00:52:00] cheap ways. For us as users, it has again, pushed the productivity five x, which means I think there’s something here that’s like a durable pattern around removing the human from the loop and figuring out ways to trust the output.The video that is shared hereswyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: Is the same sort of video we would expect the coding agent to attach to the pr.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: That is created. Yeah. That’s part of building trust in this system and that’s, to me, like fundamentally what has been cool about building this is it more closely pushes that persona of the agent working with you to be like a teammate.I don’t shoulder surf you like for the tickets that you work on during the week. I would never think that I would want to do that.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: I wouldn’t want a screen recording of your entire session in Cursor or Claude code. I would expect you to do what you think you need to do to convince me that the code is good and [00:53:00] mergeableswyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: And compress that full trajectory in a way that is legible to me. The reviewer.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: It’s Stu. And you can just do that because Codex will absolutely sling some f you can just around. It’s great.swyx: Oh, F FM P is the og like God, CLI.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah.swyx: Swiss Army Chainsaw. I used to say. There’s a SaaS, micro SaaS that’s called it in every flag in FFM Peg.Ryan Lopopolo: Oh, for sure.swyx: You know what I mean? For sure. Just host it as a service, put a UI on it. People who don’t know FM Peg will pay for it.Ryan Lopopolo: When we were first experimenting with this, it was a wild feeling to be at the computer with just like windows just popping up all over the place and getting captured and files appearing on my desktop, like very much felt like the future to have a thing controlling my computer for like actual productive use.Like I’m just thereswyx: keeping it. Like awake, jiggling the mouse every once in a while. That’s what some office workers do. So they buy a mouse jiggler. That’s right.[00:53:59] Spark vs Reasoning ModelsVibhu: One thing I [00:54:00] wanted to ask, so okay, as stuff is so CO is disposable is saying shoot off a budget of agents. One question is okay, are you always like a extra high thinking guy?And where do you see Spark? So 5.3 Spark, there’s a lot of me wanting to make quick changes. I’m not gonna open up a id, I’m not gonna do anything. But I will say, okay, fix this little thing, change a line, change a color. Spark is great for that, but am I still a bottleneck? Like, why don’t I just let that go back?I’m like, just riff on that. Is there,Ryan Lopopolo: spark is such a different model compared to the. The extra high level reasoning that you get in these, five Yeah. To clear for people.swyx: It is a different model, different architecture, different, like it doesn’t supportRyan Lopopolo: it, it just, it’s incredibly fast smaller model.I have not quite figured out how to use it yet. To be honest, I use faster. I was adapting it to the same sorts of tasks I would use X high reasoning for. Yeah. I, and it would blow through three compactions before writing a line of code.Vibhu: And that’s another big thing with 5.4 right.Million co context.Ryan Lopopolo: Yes, it’sVibhu: fantastic. Which is huge [00:55:00] ingenix, right? Like you can just run for longer before you have to compact. The more tokens you can spend on a task before compacting, like the better you’ll do.Ryan Lopopolo: That’s right. That’s right. I’m not sure how to deploy spark. I think your intuition is right, that it’s very great for spiking out prototypes, exploring ideas quickly, doing those documentation updates.It is fantastic for us in taking that feedback and transforming it into a lint. Where we already have good infrastructure for ES links in the code base these sorts of things it’s great at and it allows us to unblock quickly doing those like anti-fragile healing tasks in the code base.swyx: Yeah, that makes sense.[00:55:38] What Models Can’t Do Yetswyx: So you are push, you guys are pushing models to the freaking limit.[00:55:41] Current Model Limitationsswyx: What can current models not do well yet?Ryan Lopopolo: They’re definitely not there on being able to go from new product idea to prototype singleswyx: one shot.Ryan Lopopolo: This is where I find I spend a lot of time steering is translating end state of a mock for a net new [00:56:00] thing, right?Think no existing screens into product that is playable with. Similarly, while this has gotten better with each model release, like the gnarliest refactorings are the ones that I spend my most time with, right? The ones where I’m interrupting the most, the ones where I am. Now double clicking to build tooling to help decompose monoliths and things like that.This is a thing I only expect to get better, right? Over the course of a month, we went from the low complexity tasks to like low complexity and big tasks in both these directions. So this is what it means to not bet against the model, right? You should expect that it is going to push itself out into these higher and higher complexity spaces.Yeah. So the things we do are robust to that. It just basically means I’ll be able to spend my time elsewhere and figure out what the next bottleneck is.Vibhu: I do think it’s also a bit of a different type of task, right? Codex is really good at codebase understanding, working with code bases. But companies like Lovable bolt, repli, they solve a very different [00:57:00] problem.Scaffold of zero to one, right? Idea of a product. And it’s there, there are people working on that and models are also pushing like step function changes there. It’s just different than the software engineering agents today, right?Ryan Lopopolo: Like I said, the model is isomorphic to myself.The only thing that’s different is figuring out how to get what’s in here into context for the model and for these white space sort of projects. I, myself, I’m just not good at it. Which means that often over the agent trajectory, I realize the bits that we’re missing, which is why I find I need to have this synchronous interaction.And I expect with the right harness, with the right scaffold, that’s able to tease that outta me or refine the possible space, right? To be super opinionated around the frameworks that are deployed or to put a template in place, right? These are ways to give the model. All those non-functional requirements, that extra context to acre on and avoid that wide dispersion of possible outcomes.swyx: Thank [00:58:00] you for that.[00:58:00] Frontier Enterprise Platformswyx: I wanted to talk a little bit about Frontier.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah, sure.swyx: Overall you guys announced it maybe like a month ago. And there’s a few charts in here and it’s basic like your enterprise offering is what I view it. Is there one product or is there many,Ryan Lopopolo: I can’t speak to the full product roadmap here, but what I can say is that Frontier is the platform by which we want to do AI transformation of every enterprise and from big to small.And the way we want to do that is by making it easy to deploy highly observable, safe, controlled, identifiable agents into the workplace. We want it to work with your company native. I am stack. We want it to plug into the security tooling that you have. Oh, we want it to be able to plug into the workspace tools that you used,swyx: so you’re just gonna be stripping specs, right?Ryan Lopopolo: We expect that there will be some harness things there. Agents, SDK is a core [00:59:00] part of this to enable both startup builders as well as enterprise builders to have a works by default harness that is able to use all the best features of our models from the Shell tool down to the Codex Harness with file attachments and containers and all these other things that we know go into building highly reliable, complex agents.We wanna make that great and we wanna make it easy to compose these things together in ways that are safe, for example, right? Like the G-P-T-O-S-S safeguard model. For example. One thing that’s really cool about it is it ships. The ability to interface with a safety spec. Safety specs are things that are bespoke to enterprises.We owe it to these folks to figure out ways for them to instrument the agents in their enterprise to avoid exfiltration in the ways they specifically care about, to know about their internal company, code names, these sorts of things. So providing the right hooks to make the [01:00:00] platform customizable, but also, mostly working by default for folks is the space we are trying to explore here.swyx: Yeah. And this is the snowflakes of the world just need this, right? Yes. Your Brexit of the world stripes. Yeah, it makes sense.[01:00:11] Dashboards and Data Agentsswyx: I was gonna go back to your, I think the demo videos that you guys had was pretty illustrative. It’s like also to me an example of very large scale agent management.Yes. Like you give people a control dashboard that if you play, if you like, play any one of these like multiple agent things, you can di dig down to the individual instant and see what’s going on.Ryan Lopopolo: Yes, of course.swyx: But who’s the user Is it let’s it like the CEO, the CTO, ccio, something like that.Ryan Lopopolo: At least with my personal opinion here, the buyer that we’re trying to build product for here is one and employees who are making productive use of these agents, right?That’s gonna be whatever surfaces they appear in the connectors they have access to, things like that. Something like this dashboard is for it. Your GRC and governments folks, your AI innovation office, your security [01:01:00] team, right? The stakeholders in your company that are responsible for successfully deploying into.The spaces where your employees work, as well as doing so in a safe way that is consistent with all the regulatory requirements that you have and customer attestations and things like that. So it is a iceberg beneath the actual end. It’s,swyx: yeah you jump every, I guess layer in the UI is like going down the layer of extraction in terms of the agent, right?Yep. Yeah. Yeah. I think it’s good.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. The ability to dive deep into the individual agent trajectory level is gonna be super powerful.Not only for from like a security perspective, but also from like someone who is accountable for developing skills. One thing that was interesting that we also blogged about shipping was an internal data agent, which uses a lot of the frontier technology in order to make our data ontology accessible to the agent and things like that to understand.What’s actually in the data [01:02:00] warehouse?swyx: Yeah. Seman layer Yes. Type things. Yes. I was briefly part of the, that, that world is it salt? I don’t know. It’s actually really hard for humans to agree on what revenue is. Yes.Ryan Lopopolo: Yes.swyx: What is an active user?Ryan Lopopolo: There’s what, five data scientists in the company that have defined this Golden.swyx: They, yeah. And no. And there’s also internal politics. Yes. As to attribution of I’m marketing, I’m responsible for this much, and sales is responsible for this much, and they all add up to more than a hundred. And I’m like you guys have different definitions.Vibhu: Yeah. And if you’re a startup, everything is a RR,swyx: So I think that’s cool.Oh, you guys blog about this. Okay. I didn’t see this. Yeah. Is this the same thing? I don’t know. This is what you’re referring to? Yes. Okay. We’ll send people to read this. This is our data.Vibhu: Him this one.swyx: Yeah. I don’t know if you’re you have any highlights? IVibhu: No. In general from the playlist.Yeah. A lot of good things to read.swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Lot, lots of homework for people. No, but like data as the feedback layer, you need to solve this first in order to have the products feedback loop closed. That’s right. So for the agents to understand and this is not something that humans have not solved.This like, andRyan Lopopolo: this is [01:03:00] how you build artists that do more than coding, right? Yeah.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: To actually understand how you operate the business.swyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: You have to understand what revenue is, what your customer segments are. Yeah. What your product lines are.[01:03:13] Company Context and MemesRyan Lopopolo: Like one thing that’s in looping back to the code base that we described here for harnessing, one thing that’s in core beliefs.md is who’s on the team, what product we’re building, who our end customers are.Who our pilot customers are, what the full vision of what we want to achieve over the next 12 months is these are all bits of context that inform how we would go about building the software. Oh my God. So we have to give it to the agent too.Vibhu: I’m guessing that stuff is like pretty dynamic and it changes over time too, right?Like part of it was, it’s not just a big spec. You have it as one of the things and it will iterate.Ryan Lopopolo: One, one thing that I think is gonna break your mind even more is we have skills for how to properly generate deep fried memes and have Ji culture [01:04:00] and Slack. Because with the Slack Chachi PT app that you’re able to use in Codex, like I can get the agent to s**t post on my behalf.Just, it’s part of humor.swyx: Theme humor. Humor is part of EGI. Is it funny? It is pretty good, yeah. Okay. Yeah,Ryan Lopopolo: it’s pretty good at makingswyx: Deep, it’s a lot of I think humor is like a really hard intelligence test, right? It’s like you have to get a lot of context into like very few words.This is why make referencesRyan Lopopolo: is why five four is such a big uplift for our it’s the me. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. Yeah.swyx: It’s very cool.Vibhu: So five, four can two post. So that’s what we take over here.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. Maybe maybe when y’all are done here today, ask Codex to go over your coding agent sessions and to roast you.swyx: Love it. I’ll give it a shot. Give a shot. Coming back to the final point I wanted to make is, yeah I think that there, there are multiple other, like you guys are working on this, but this is a pattern that every other company out there should adopt. Yes. Regardless of whether or not they work with you.To me, this is I saw this, I was like, f**k, [01:05:00] every company needs this. Thisisswyx: multiple billions.Ryan Lopopolo: This is what it takes to getswyx: Yeah.Ryan Lopopolo: People to Yes. Yeah. Actually realize the benefits. Yes. And distribute.swyx: And it’s, it, I think it sounds boring to people like, oh, it’s for safeguards and whatever, but I think you to handle agents at scale like you are envisioning here I don’t know if it’s like a real screenshot, like a demo, but this is what you need.This is, or my original sort of view of what Temporal was supposed to be that you, you built this dashboard and you basically have every long running process in the company Yes. In one dashboard and that’s it. That’s right.Vibhu: Yeah. I think it’s pretty customized towards every enterprise, right?Like you care about different things.swyx: There’s a lot of customization, but there’ll be multiple unicorns just doing this as a service. I don’t know. I’m like very frontier field, if you can tell. Amazing. But it, it only clicked ‘cause obviously this came out first, then Harness eng, then symphony and only clicked for me that like, this is actually the thing you shipped to do that.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. Yeah. There’s a set of building blocks here that we assembled into these agents [01:06:00] and the building blocks themselves are part of the product, right? Yeah. The ability to steer revoke authorization if a model becomes misaligned, like all of this is accessible through Frontier. And there’s gonna be a bunch of stakeholders in the company that have the things they need to see in the platform Yeah.To get to. Yes. So we’ll build all of those in the frontier so that we can actually do the widespread the planet. Yeah. That’s the fun part.swyx: Yeah. I’m also calling back to there’s this like levels of EGI I don’t know if Opening Eye is still talking about this, but they used to talk about five levels of EGI and one of it was like, oh, it’s like an intern coding software patient.At some point it was AI organization and this is it. That’s right. This is level four or five. I can’t remember which, which level, but it’s somewhere along that path. Was this.Ryan Lopopolo: You know how I mentioned that my team is having fun sprinting ahead here. And we do this thing where we’re collecting all the agent trajectories from Codex to slurp them up and distill them.This is what it means to build our team [01:07:00] level knowledge base, happen to reflect it back into the code base. But it doesn’t have to be that way. And it doesn’t have to be bound to just codex. I want Chacha BT to also learn our meaning culture and also the product we are building and how so that when I go ask it, it also has the full context of the way I do my work and I’m super excited for Frontier to enable this.swyx: Yeah. Amazing.[01:07:21] Harness vs Training Tensionswyx: What are the model people say when they see you do this? Like you have a lot of feedback, obviously you have a lot of usage, you have a lot of trajectories and don’t, I don’t imagine a lot of it’s useful to them, but some of it is,Vibhu: you have this too, you deploy a billion tokens of intelligence a day and this was, this was at the beginning of 2096.You’re Yeah. Cooking.Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah, there’s this fundamental tension, which I think you have talked about between whether or not we invest deeper into the harness or we invest deeper into the training process to get the model to do more of this by default. Yeah, and I think success for the way we are [01:08:00] operating here means the model gets better taste because we can point the way there and none of the things we have built actively degrade Asian performance.‘cause really all they’re doing is running tests and like running tests is a good part of what it means to write reliable software. If we were building an entire separate rust scaffold around Codex to restrict its output, that I think would be like additional harness that would be prone to being scrapped.But yeah. Yeah. If instead we can build all the guardrails in a way that’s just native to the output that Codex is already producing, which is code, I think. No friction with how the model continues to advance, but also like just good engineering and that’s the whole point.swyx: Yeah. So I’ve had similar discussions with research scientists where the RL equivalent is on policy versus off policy.Yeah. And you’re basically saying that you should build an on policy harness, which is already within distribution and you [01:09:00] modify from there. But if you build it off policy, it’s not that useful.Ryan Lopopolo: That’s right.swyx: Super cool. Any, anybody thoughts, any things that we haven’t covered that we should get it, get out there?[01:09:08] Closing Thoughts & OpenAI HiringRyan Lopopolo: Just I’ve been super excited to benefit from all the cooking that the Codex team has been doing. Yes. They absolutely ship relentlessly. This is one of our core engineering values, ship relentlessly, and they, the team there embodies it. To extreme degree, yeah, I have five three and then Spark and five four come out within what feels like a month is just a phenomenally fast.swyx: It’s exactly a month ago it’s five three and yesterday was five four. Yeah. I mean it’s, do we have every month now is five five next? Exactly.Ryan Lopopolo: I can’t say that the poll markets would be very upset.swyx: I think it’s interesting that it’s also correlated with the growth. They announced that it’s 2 million users, but like almost don’t care about Codex anymore.This is it, this is the gay man. It’s like coding cool, soft like knowledge work.Ryan Lopopolo: That’s right. That’s right. This is the thing to chase after. Yeah. And this is one of things that my team is excited to support,swyx: get the whole like [01:10:00] self-hosted harness thing working, which you have done and like the rest of us are trying to figure out how to catch up, but then do things.You That’s right. With youVibhu: do things.swyx: That’s right. You can just do things. That’s the line for the episode.Vibhu: That’s it. Any other call to actions. You’re based in Seattle, your team, I’m guessing. New Bellevue office.Ryan Lopopolo: New Bellevue office. We just had the grand opening yesterday as of the recording date which was fantastic.Beautiful buildings. Super excitedly part of the Bellevue Community building the future in Washington. And I would say that there is lots of work to be done in order to successfully serve enterprise customers here in Frontier. We are certainly hiring and if you haven’t tried the Codex app yet, please give it a download.We just passed 2 million weekly active users growing at a phenomenally fast rate, 25% week over week. Come join us.swyx: Yes. And I think that’s an interesting no. My, my final observation opening is a very San Francisco centric company. I know people who have been. [01:11:00] Who turned down the job or didn’t get the job ‘cause they didn’t want to move to sf and now they just don’t have a choice.You have to open the London, you have to open the Seattle. And I wonder if that’s gonna be a shift in the culture, obviously you can’t say, butRyan Lopopolo: I was one of the first engineering hires out of our Seattle office, so Yeah.swyx: See I was very natural.Ryan Lopopolo: Its success has been part of what I have been building toward and it is, it has grown quite well, right?Yeah. We have durable products in the lines of business that are built outta there a ton of zero to one work happening as well, which is the core essence of the way we do applied AI work at the company to sprint after it new to figure out where we can actually successfully deploy the model.Yeah. Yes. A hundred percent. We also have a New York office too that has a ton of engineering presence.swyx: Yeah. Exact. Exactly. That’s these are my road roadmaps for a e wherever people hiring engineers, I will go. That’s right. Ra it’sVibhu: a cool office to New York is a old REI building, I believe the REI office.swyx: It’s just No, you’ll never be as big. New York is you can’t get [01:12:00] the size of office that they need.Ryan Lopopolo: The New York office, Seattle user has a very office Mad Men vibe. It’s beautiful. The Bellevue one is very green, gold fixtures, very Pacific Northwest is very cool place to the vibe.Be localVibhu: little, yeah. A lot of people are like there for people like New York. They wanna be in New York, right?Ryan Lopopolo: Yeah. Yeah. We have a fantastic workplace team that has been building out these offices. It really is a privilege to work here. Yeah. Excellent. Okay. Thank you for your time. You’ve been veryswyx: generous and you’re, you’ve been cooking, so I’m gonna let you get back to cooking.It’s been amazing to be with you folks. Happy Friday. Happy Friday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Marc Andreessen introspects on The Death of the Browser, Pi + OpenClaw, and Why "This Time Is Different" 03.04.2026 1h 16min

  Fresh off raising a monster $15B, Marc Andreessen has lived through multiple computing platform shifts firsthand, from Mosaic and Netscape to cofounding A16z. In this episode, Marc joins swyx and Alessio in a16z’s legendary Sand Hill Road office to argue that AI is not just another hype cycle, but the payoff of an “80-year overnight success”: from neural nets and expert systems to transformers, reasoning models, coding, agents, and recursive self-improvement. He lays out why he thinks this moment is different, why AI is finally escaping the old boom-bust pattern, and why the real bottleneck may be less about models than about the messy institutions, incentives, and social systems that struggle to absorb technological change.This episode was a dream come true for us, and many thanks to Erik Torenberg for the assist in setting this up. Full episode on YouTube!We discuss:* Marc’s long view on AI: from the 1980s AI boom and expert systems to AlexNet, transformers, and why he sees today’s moment as the culmination of decades of compounding technical progress* Why “this time is different”: the jump from LLMs to reasoning, coding, agents, and recursive self-improvement, and why Marc thinks these breakthroughs make AI real in a way prior cycles were not* AI winters vs. “80-year overnight success”: why the field repeatedly swings between utopianism and doom, and why Marc thinks the underlying researchers were mostly right even when the timelines were wrong* Scaling laws, Moore’s Law, and what to build: why he believes AI scaling laws will continue, why the outside world is messier than lab purists assume, and how startups can still create durable value on top of rapidly improving models* The dot-com crash and AI infrastructure risk: Marc’s comparison between today’s AI capex boom and the fiber/data-center overbuild of 2000, plus why he thinks this cycle is different because the buyers are huge cash-rich incumbents and demand is already here* Why old NVIDIA chips may be getting more valuable: the pace of software progress, chronic capacity shortages, and the idea that even current models are “sandbagged” by supply constraints* Open source, edge inference, and the chip bottleneck: why Marc thinks local models, Apple Silicon, privacy, trust, and economics all point toward a major role for edge AI* American vs. Chinese open source AI: DeepSeek as a “gift to the world,” why open models matter not just because they’re free but because they teach the world how things work, and how open source strategies may shift as the market consolidates* Why Pi and OpenClaw matter so much: Marc’s claim that the combination of LLM + shell + filesystem + markdown + cron loop is one of the biggest software architecture breakthroughs in decades* Agents as the new “Unix”: how agent state living in files allows portability across models and runtimes, and why self-modifying agents that can extend themselves may redefine what software even is* The future of coding and programming languages: why Marc thinks software becomes abundant, why bots may translate freely across languages, and why “programming language” itself may stop being a salient concept* Browsers, protocols, and human readability: lessons from Mosaic and the web, why text protocols and “view source” mattered, and how similar principles may shape AI-native systems* Real-world OpenClaw use: health dashboards, sleep monitoring, smart homes, rewriting firmware on robot dogs, and why the most aggressive users are discovering both the power and danger of agents first* Proof of human vs. proof of bot: why Marc thinks the internet’s bot problem is now unsolvable via detection alone, and why biometric + cryptographic proof of human becomes necessaryTimestamps* 00:00 Marc on AI’s “80-Year Overnight Success”* 00:01 A Quick Message From swyx* 01:44 Inside a16z With Marc Andreessen* 02:13 The Truth About a16z’s AI Pivot* 03:29 Why This AI Boom Is Not Like 2016* 06:33 Marc on AI Winters, Hype Cycles, and What’s Different Now* 10:09 Reasoning, Coding, Agents, and the New AI Breakthroughs* 12:13 What Founders Should Build as Models Keep Improving* 16:33 AI Capex, GPU Shortages, and the Dot-Com Crash Analogy* 24:54 Open Source AI, Edge Inference, and Why It Matters* 33:03 Why OpenClaw and PI Could Change Software Forever* 41:37 Agents, the End of Interfaces, and Software for Bots* 46:47 Do Programming Languages Even Have a Future?* 54:19 AI Agents Need Money: Payments, Crypto, and Stablecoins* 56:59 Proof of Human, Internet Bots, and the Drone Problem* 01:06:12 AI, Management, and the Return of Founder-Led Companies* 01:12:23 Why the Real Economy May Resist AI Longer Than Expected* 01:15:53 Closing ThoughtsTranscriptMarc: Something about AI that causes the people in the field, I would say, to become both excessively utopian and excessively apocalyptic. Having said that, I think what’s actually happened is an enormous amount of technical progress that built up over time. And like for, for example, we now know that neural network is the correct architecture.And I, I will tell you like there was a 60 year run where that was like a, you know, or even 70 years where that was controversial. And so, so the way I think about what’s happening is basically, I think, I think about basically the, the, the period we’re in right now is it’s, I call it 80 year overnight success, right?Which is like, it’s an overnight success ‘cause it’s like bam, you know, chat GPT hits and then, and then oh one hits, and then, you know, open claw hits and like, you know, these are open, these are, these are like overnight, like radical, overnight transformative successes, but they’re drawing on an 80 year sort of wellspring backlog, you know, of, of, of, of ideas and thinking it’s not just that it’s all brand new, it’s that it’s an unlock of all of these decades of like very serious, hardcore research.If I were 18, like this is a hundred, this is what I would be spending all of my time on. This is like such an incredible conceptual breakthrough.swyx: Before we get into today’s episode, I just have a small message for listeners. Thank you. We will not be able to bring you the ai, engineering, science, and entertainment contents that you so clearly want if you didn’t choose to also click in and tune into our content.We’ve been approached by sponsors on an almost daily basis, but fortunately enough of you actually subscribed to us to keep all this sustainable without ads, and we wanna keep it that way. But I just have one favor to ask all of you. The single, most powerful, completely free thing you can do is to click that subscribe button.It’s the only thing I’ll ever ask of you, and it means absolutely everything to me and my team that works so hard to bring the in space to you each and every week. If you do it, I promise you will never stop working to make the show even better. Now, let’s get into it.Alessio: Hey everyone, welcome to the Lidian Space Pockets. This is CIO, founder Kernel Labs, and I’m joined by s Swix, editor of Lidian Space.swyx: Hello. And we’re in a 16 Z with a, uh, mark G and welcome.Marc: Yes, yes. A and what, half of 16? Something like that. A one. Exactly,swyx: exactly. Uh, apparently this is the, the final few days in your, your current office.You’re moving across the road.Marc: Uh, we’re, yeah. We have a, we have some, we have some projects underway, but yeah, this is actually, oh, this is the original. We’re in actually the original office. We’re in the, we’re in the, we’re, we’re in the whole thing.swyx: It’s beautiful. Yeah. Great.Marc: Thank you.swyx: So I have to come out, uh, this is a, you know, I wanted to pick a spicy start in October, 2022.I just made friends with Roone and, uh, I wanted to give him something to sort of be spicy about. And I said, uh. Uh, it’ll never not be funny. The A 16 Z was constantly going. The future is where the smart people choose to spend their time and then going deep into crypto and not in ai. And that was in October 22nd, 2022.And Ruen says there was an internal meeting in a 16 Z to reorient around Gen ai. Obviously you have, but was there a meeting? What, what was that?Marc: I mean, I don’t, look, I’ve been doing AI since the late eighties.swyx: Yeah.Marc: So I, I don’t know, like all that, as far as I’m concerned, this stuff is all Johnny cum lately.Yeah. You, I mean, look, we’ve been doing ar entire existence. I mean, we’ve been doing AI machine learning deep, you know, deeply. We’ve been doing this stuff way from the beginning. Obviously a AI is just core to computer science. I, I, I actually view them as like quite, uh, quite continuous. Um, you know, Ben and I both have computer science degrees.Um, you know, we, we both, Ben, Ben and I actually both are world enough to remember the actual AI boom in the 1980s. Yeah. There was like a, there was a big AI boom at the time. Um, and there was a, was names like expert systems. Um, and they of like lisp and lisp machines. Uh, I, I coded in lisp. I was coding a lisp in 1989.When that was the, the language of the AI future. Um, yeah. So this is something that we’re like completely, you completely comfortable with. I’ve been doing the whole time and are very enthusiastic aboutswyx: is there a strong, like this time is different because, uh, my closest analog was 20 16 17. It was an AI boom.Mm-hmm. And it petered out very, very quickly. Um, we, it just, it just in terms of investingMarc: sort of, sort of,swyx: yeah. Investment, investment excitement.Marc: Although that’s really when the, the, the Nvidia phenomenon really, it was, I would say it was in that period when it was very clear that at, at the time it, the vocabulary was more machine learning, but it, it was very clear at that time that machine learning was hitting some sort of takeoff point.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: Well, and as you guys, you guys have talked about this at length on, on your thing, but, you know, if you really track what happened, I think the real story is, it was, it was the Alex net, uh, basically breakthrough in like 2013. That was the, that was the real knee in the curve. Um, and then it was obviously the transformer breakthrough in 17.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: Um, and then everything that followed. But, but, you know, look, machine learning, you know, there were, you know, look, uh, I mean look, I’ve been working, you know, I’ve been working with, uh, one of my, you know, kind of projects working with Facebook since 2004. Um, and on the board since 2007, and of course, you know, they, they started using machine learning very early, um, and, you know, have used it basically, you know, for like 20 years for, you know, content, you know, feed optimization and advertising optimization.And obviously many, you know, financial services. You know, many, many, many companies, many different sectors have been doing this. And so it’s like one of these things, it’s like, it’s not a, it’s not a single thing. Like it’s, it’s like, it’s like layers, right? Yeah. Um, and, and the layers arrive at different paces and, but they kind of build up.swyx: Yeah.Marc: Uh, they kind of build up over time and then, and then, yeah. And then look, in retrospect, it was 2017 was kind of the, you know, the key, the key point with the trans transformer and then. And then as you guys know, there was this really weird like four year period where it’s like the, the transformer existed and then it was just like,swyx: let’s go.Yeah.Marc: Well, but, but it was just, but, but between 2020, but between 2017 and 2021, I mean, that was the era of which like companies like Google had internal chat Botts, but they weren’t letting anybody use them.swyx: Yeah.Marc: Right. And then, you know, and then OpenAI developed Chat GT or GPT two, and then they told everybody, this is way too dangerous to deploy.Right. Yeah. You know, we can’t possibly let normal people, normal people use this thing. And then you, you guys, I’m sure remember AI Dungeon, um mm-hmm. So the o for, there was like a year where like the only way for a normal person to use GP T three was in, in AI dungeon.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: And so you, you, we would do this, you’d go in there and you’d pretend to play Dungeons and Dragons.In reality, you’re just trying to talk to talk to GPT. And so there was this, you know, there was this long, you know, and I, you know, the big, big companies, you know, big companies are cautious and, you know, the big companies were cautious. It, it, by the way, it took open ai. You know, they, they, they talk about this, it took open AI time to actually adjust, you know, kind of re redirect their researchswyx: path.I, I think, uh, let say Rosewood, right? Uh, the, the dinner that founded OpenAI was right there.Marc: Right, right. But that, that dinner would’ve taken place in 20swyx: 18Marc: 19. The formation of OpenAI Uhhuh as late as 2018.swyx: Uh, uh, sorry. Uh, no, I’m, I’m, I’m, I’m wrong. Probably It should be 20. Yeah. They just celebrated a 10 year anniversary, so it it is 2025.Yeah, so, so 2015?Marc: Yeah. 2015. Yeah. 2015. But then, uh, um, Alec Radford did G PT one in what, probablyswyx: mm-hmm. 17, 18,Marc: yeah. 17, 18. So it, yeah. For, and then, and then they didn’t really, and then GPT three was what? 2020? 2020.swyx: 2020.Marc: Because that became copilot immediately. Even open ai, which has been, you know, the leader of, of this thing in the last decade, you know, e even they had to adapt and, and, and lean into the new thing.And so. Um, yeah, I, I think it’s just this process of basically sort of wave after wave layer after layer, you know, building on itself. And then you kind of get these catalytic moments where, where the whole thing pops and, and obviously that’s what’s happening now.swyx: Is it useful to think about will there be any ai, winter?‘cause there’s always these patterns. Like, is this, in the summer is something I constantly think about because do I get, do I just like. Just get endlessly hyped and just trust that I will only be early and never wrong or right. Well, are we, will there be a winter?Marc: So there’s something about, say the following.There’s something about AI that has led to this repeated pattern. Um, and, and, and you guys know this,swyx: it’s summer, winter, summer,Marc: winter, summer, winter, summer, winter. And it goes back 80 years. Yeah. 80 years. Uh, so the original neural network paper was 1943. Right. Which is, which is amazing. Uh, that it was, it was far back that long.And then there was you, if you guys have ever talked about this on your show, but there was this, uh, there was a big, uh, there was an a GI conference at Dartmouth University in 1950. 55. 55, yeah. And they got a NSF grant to, uh, for the, all the AI experts at the time to spend the summer together. And they figured if they had 10 weeks together, they could get a GI, uh, at the other end.And they got their, by the way, they got the grant, they got the 10 weeks and then, you know, 1955, you know. No, no. A GI. And like I said, I, I lived through the eighties version of this where there was a big, a big boom and a crash. And so, so there is this thing, and there, there is something about AI that causes the people in the field, I would say, to become both excessively utopian and excessively apocalyptic.Um, and, and it’s probably on both sides of like the, the, the boom bus cycle. You, you kind of see that play out. Having said that, I think what’s actually happened is like just, and you know, and we now know in retrospect like an enormous amount of technical progress that built up over time. And like for, for example, we now know that neural network is the correct architecture.And I, I will tell you like there was a 60 year run where that was like a, you know, or even 70 years or that was controversial. And, and we now know that that’s the case. And so we, we now, you know, everything we’re building on today just sort of derives from the original idea in 1943. And so, so in retrospect, we, we now know that like, these, these guys are right.They, they, you know, they would get the timing wrong and they thought, you know, capabilities would arrive faster, or they were, it could be turned into businesses sooner or whatever, but like, they were fundamentally, the, the scientists who worked on this over the course of decades were fundamentally correct about what they were doing.And, and the, and the payoff from, from, from all their work is happening now. And so, so the way I think about what’s happening is basically, I think, I think about basically the, the, the period we’re in right now is it’s, I call it 80 year overnight success, right? Which is like, it’s an overnight success.‘cause it’s like bam, you know, chat, GPT hits and then, and then oh one hits, and then, you know, open claw hits and like, you know, these are open, these are, these are like overnight, like radical, overnight transformative successes, but they’re drawing on an 80 year sort of wellspring backlog, you know, of, of, of, of ideas and thinking it’s not just that it’s all brand new, it’s that it’s an unlock of all of these decades of like very serious, hardcore research.Um, and thinking, and look, there were AI researchers who spent their entire lives. They got their PhD. They, they worked for, they’ve researched for 40 years. They retired in a lot of cases, they passed away and they never actually saw it work.swyx: Yeah. It’s all sad.Marc: It is. It is sad. It’s sad. Knewswyx: Jeff Hinton was like the last guy.Marc: Yeah. Yeah. Well, there were the guys, uh, was a guy, Alan Newell. I mean, there’s tons of John McCarthy. You know, John McCarthy was like one of the inventors in the field. He’s one of the guys who organized the Dartmouth Conference and you know, he taught at Stanford for 40 years. Wow. And passed, you know, passed away, I don’t know, whatever, 10, 10 years ago or something.Never, never actually go. Got to see it happen. But like, it is amazing in retrospect, like, these guys were incredibly smart and they worked really hard and they were correct. So anyway, so then it’s like, okay, you know, say history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. It’s like, okay, does that mean that there’s gonna be another, like, you know, basically boom buzz cycle.And I, I will tell you, like, let, like in a sense, like yes, everything goes through cycles and, you know, people get overly enthusiastic and overly depressed and there’s, there’s a time, there’s a timelessness to that. Having said that, there’s just no question. Um, so the form, the foremost dangerous words in investing this time are, this time is different.Do you know the 12 most dangerous words investing? No. The four most d foremost dangerous words in investing are this time is different. Yeah. Um, the 12 most dangerous words. And so like, I’ll tell you what’s different. Like now it’s working like, like there’s just no, I mean, look, there’s just no question.And by the way, I, I’ll just give you guys my take. Like L LLMs, like from, from basically the Chad G PT moment through to spring of 25. I think you could still, I think well intention, well, and of. Form skeptics could still say, oh, this is just pattern completion. And oh, these things don’t really understand what they’re doing.And you know, the hall hallucination rates are way too high. And, you know, this is gonna be great for creative writing and creating, you know, Shakespeare and so sonnets and, you know, as, as rap lyrics or whatever, like, it’s gonna be great and all that stuff, but we’re not gonna be able to harness this to make this relevant in, you know, coding or in medicine or in law or in, you know, you know, kind of feels that, you know, kind of really, really matter.And I think basically it was the reasoning breakthrough. It, it was oh one and then R one that basically answered that question basically said, oh no, we’re gonna be able to actually turn this into something that’s gonna work in the real world. And, and then obviously the coding breakthrough over the, over basically the coding breakthrough that kind of catalyzed over the holiday break was kind of the third step in that.Mm-hmm. Where you’re just like, alright, if, if, you know, if Linus Tova is saying that the AI coding is no better than he is like. Like, that’s, that’s never happened before. That’s theswyx: benchmark.Marc: Yeah. That’s never happened before. And so now we know that it’s, it’s gonna sweep through coding and, and then, and then we, we know, you know, we know that if it’s gonna work in coding, it’s gonna work in everything else.Right. It’s just then, because that’s, that’s like, that’s like, that’s like the hardest in many ways. That’s the hardest example. And how everything else is gonna be a, a derivative of that. And then on top of that, we just got the agent breakthrough, you know, with Open Claw, which is fantastic. Which is amazing and incredibly powerful.And then we just got the, the, um, the auto research, uh, you know, the, the self-improvement. You know, we’re now into the self-improvement breakthrough. And so the, so the way I think about it is we’ve had four fundamental breakthroughs in functionality, l OMS reasoning, uh, agents, um, and then, uh, and, and then now RSI, um, and, and they’re all actually working.Um, and so I’m, I’m just, as you like, you can tell I’m jumping outta my shoes. Like, like this is, like this is it like this, this is the culmination of 80 years worth of worth of work, and this is the time it’s becoming real.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: I, I’m completely convinced.Alessio: I think the anxiety that people feel is like during the transistor era, yet Mors law, and it’s like, all right, we understand why these things are getting better.We understand the physics of it. Yeah. With ai, it’s. It’s so jagged in like the jumps where like, like you said, it’s like in three months you have like this huge jump like, and people are like, well this can keep happening. Right? But then it keeps happening,Marc: it’ll keep happening.Alessio: And so like how do you think about also timelines of like what’s we’re building?I think we always have this question with guests, which is like, you know, should you spend time building harness for a model versus like the next model just gonna do it one shot in the lead space. Right. And how does that inform, like how you think about the shape of the technology? You know, you talk about how it’s a new computing platform.If you have a computing platform, then like every six months it like drastically changes in what it looks like. It’s hard to build companies on top of it.Marc: Yeah. So, so a couple things. So one is like, look, the, the Moore’s law was what we now call a scaling law. Like Moore’s Law was a scaling law and for your younger viewers, more Moore’s Law was every chip chip chips either get twice as powerful or twice as cheap every, every 18 months.And that, and that and that, you know, that it’s gotten more complicated in the last few years. But like that, that was like the 50 year trajectory of, of, of the computer industry. And then, and then by the way, and that’s what took the mainframe computer from a $25 million current dollar thing into, you know, the phone in your pocket being, you know, a million times more powerful than that.Like that, you know, for, for 500 bucks. And so that, that was a scaling law. And then, and then, and then key to any scaling law, including Moore’s Law and the AI scaling laws is, you know, they’re not really laws, right? They’re, they’re, they’re, they’re predictions, but when they work, they become self-fulfilling predictions because they, they, they, they, they set a benchmark and, and then the entire industry, right?All the smart people in the industry kind of work to make sure that, that, that actually happens. And so they, they kind of motivate the breakthroughs that are required to, to keep that going. And, and in and in chips, that was a 50 year, that was a 50 year run. Right. And it, it was amazing. And it’s still happening in, in some areas of, of chips.I think the same thing is happening with the, the core scaling laws. The core scaling laws. In, in, in ai, you know, they’re, they’re not really laws, but like they, they are basically. There are predictions and then they’re motivating catalysts for the research work that is required to be. And, and, and, and by the way, also the investment, uh, dollars, um, uh, you know, required to basically keep, you know, keep the curves going and, and look, it, it is, it’s gonna be complicated and it’s gonna be variable and they’re, you know, there’re gonna be walls that are gonna look like they’re fast approaching, and then they’re gonna be, you know, engineers are gonna get to work and they’re gonna figure out a way to punch through the walls.And obviously that’s, you know, that’s been happening a lot, you know, and then look, there’s gonna be times when it looks like the walls have, you know, the, the, the laws have petered out and then they’re gonna, they’re gonna pick up again and surge and then, and then, and then it, it appears what’s happening to the eyes is there’s not multiple, you know, multiple scaling laws.Um, there’s multiple areas of improvement. And, and I think, you know, I don’t know how many more there are already yet to be discovered, but there are probably some more that we don’t know about yet. You know, they, like, for example, there’s probably some scaling law around, um, world models and robotics that we don’t fully understand, you know, kind of acquisition of data at scale in the real world that we don’t fully understand yet.So that, that, that one will probably kick in at some point here. There’s a bunch of really smart people working on that. Um, and so, yeah, I, I think the expectation is that, that, you know, the, the scaling laws generally are gonna continue. Yeah. The, the pace of improvement will continue to move really fast.Um. To your question on like what to build. So, uh, I’m a complete believer the scaling laws are gonna continue. I’m a complete believer the capabilities are gonna keep getting amazing, um, you know, leaps and bounds. Uh, the part where I kind of part ways a little bit with how, what I would describe as the AI purists, um, you know, which is, which I would characterize as like the people who are.In many ways, the smartest people in the field, but also the people who spend their entire life, like at a lab, um, and have, have, I would say, have very little experience in the outside world. Um, the, the, the nuance I would offer is the outside world of 8 billion people and institutions and governments and companies and economic systems and social systems is really complicated.Um, and, um, and doesn’t, you know, it it 8 billion people making collective decisions on planet Earth is not a simple process of like, just like you see this happening now. It’s like a bunch of AI CEOs have this thing, which is just like, well, there’s just this, they just all have this kind of thing when they talk in public where they’re just like, well, there’s these, these obvious set of things that so society to do.Alessio: Mm-hmm.Marc: And then they’re like, society’s not doing any of those things. Right. And it’s like, how can society not, you know, what, whatever their theory is, how can society not see x, y, Z? Mm-hmm. And the answer is, well, society is number one. There’s no single society, it’s like 8 billion people. And they like all have a voice, and they all have a vote, like at the end of the day of how they, they react to change.And then, you know, it just like, it’s just human reality is just really complicated and messy. Um, and, and, and so the specific answer to your question is like, as usual, it depends. Um, you know, it, it depends. Look, pe there’s no question people are gonna, like, there’s no question they’re gonna be companies.It’s already happening. There are companies that think that they’re building value on top of the models and then they’re just gonna get blissed by the, by the next model. There’s no question that’s happening. But I think there’s no question also that just the process of adaptation of any technology into the real and into the real messy world of humanity is, is just going to be messy and complicated.It’s, it’s not going to be simple and straightforward. It’s gonna be messy and complicated. And there are gonna be a lot of companies and a lot of products, um, uh, and in, in fact entire industries that are gonna get built to, to, to basically actually help all of this technology actually reach real people.Alessio: The amount of capital going into these companies, I mean, Dario talked about it on the Door Cash podcast and Door Cash was like, why don’t you just buy 10 x more GPUs? And he is like, because I’m gonna go bankrupt if the model doesn’t exactly hit the, the performance level. How do you think about that?Also as a risk on, you know, you guys are investors, open AI and thinking machines and world apps. It seems like we’re leveraging the scaling loss at a pretty high rate, right? Like how comfortable, I guess, do you feel with the downside scenario, like, and say like things Peter out, you think you can kind of like restructure uh, these build outs and uh, you know, capital investments.Marc: Yeah. So should start by saying, so I live through the.com crash, um, and I can tell you stories for hours about the.com crash and it was horrible. No, it was awful. It was, it was, it was apocalyptic by the way. The, a lot of the.com crash was actually at the time, it was actually a telecom crash. It was a bandwidth crash.Like the, the thing that actually crashed, that wiped out all the money with the tele, the telecom companies.swyx: GlobalMarc: crossing. Global, global, yeah.swyx: I’m from Singapore and they, they laid so much cable o over over our oceans.Marc: Actually there was a scaling law in the.com. Era. And it was literally the, the US Commerce Department put out a report in 1996 and they said internet traffic was doubling every quarter.Um, and, and actually in 1995 and 1996, internet traffic actually did double every quarter. And so that became the scaling law. And so what all these telecom entrepreneurs did was they went out and they raised money to build fiber, anticipating that the demand for bandwidth is gonna keep doubling every quarter.Doubling every quarter though is like, you know, grains of chess and the chessboard, like at some point the numbers become extremely large. Right. And, and, and it really, and really what happened was the internet. The internet by the way, continuously kept growing basically since inception. And it’s, you know, it’s, it’s continuously grown.It’s never shrunk. And it’s grown really fast compared to anything else. Mm-hmm. You know, in, in, in human history. But it wasn’t doubling every quarter as of 19 98, 19 99. And so there was this gap in the expectation of what they thought was a scaling law versus reality. And that’s actually what caused the.com crash, which was the, it they, they way over companies like global crossing way overbuilt fiber, which is sort of the, and by the way, fiber, telecom equipment, you know, so all the, all the networking gear, you know, and then, and then by the way, the actual physical data centers, like that was the beginning of the, of the, of the data center build and then, and the data center overbuild.And so you had that, but it was, it was literally, I think it was like $2 trillion got wiped out, right? It was like Jesus, it was like a big, it was. And by the way, the other, the other subtlety in it was the internet companies themselves never really had any debt. ‘cause tech, tech companies generally don’t run on debt, but the telecom companies run on debt.Physical infrastructure companies run on debt. And so the companies like Global Crossing not just raise a lot of equity, they also raise a lot of debt. So they’re highly levered. And so then you just do the thing. It’s just like, okay, you have a highly levered thing where you’re, you’re just over, you’re overbuilding capacity.Demand is growing, but not as fast as you hoped. And then boom, bankrupt. Right. And, and then it, and then it’s like they say about the hotel industry, which is, it’s always the third owner of a hotel that makes money. It has to go bankrupt twice, right? You have to wash out all of the over optimistic exuberance before it gets to actually a stable state.And then it makes money. So by the way, all of those data centers and all of those, all the fiber that they’re in use, it’s all in use today. Yeah. But 25 years later. But it, it, it took, and actually the elapsed time was, it took 15 years. It took 15 years from 2000 to 2015 to actually fill, fill up all that capacity.The cautionary warning is the, the overbuild can happen. Um, and, and, and, and, you know, you, you get into this thing where basically everybody, everybody who basically has any sort of institutional capital, it’s like, wow. It’s just, I, I don’t know how to invest in these crazy software things. For sure I can put build data centers and for sure I can buy GPUs that I can deploy, you know, compute grids and, and all these things.Um, and so, you know, if you’re a pessimist, you could look at this and you could say, wow, this is like really set up to be able to basically replicate, you know, what we went through, what we went through in 2000. Obviously that would be bad. The counter argument, which is the one I I agree with, which is the counter on, on the other side is a couple things.One is the companies that are investing all the, the companies that are investing the money are like the bluest chip of companies. And so back, back, back in the, in the do, like Global Crossing was like a, it was like an entrepreneur. It was like a, a new venture, but like the money that’s being deployed now at scale is Microsoft, and, you know, and Amazon and Google, Facebook and Facebook and Nvidia and, you know, these, these, these, and, and now you know, by the way, open ai philanthropic, which are now at like, you know, really serious size, um, you know, as companies with, you know, very serious revenue.These are very large scale companies with like, lots, lots of cash, lots of debt capacity that they’ve, they’ve never used. And so th this is institutional in a way that, that really wasn’t at the time. And then the other is, at least for now, every dollar that’s being put into anything that results in a running GPU is being turned into revenue right away.Like so, and you guys know this, like everybody’s starved for capacity, everybody’s starved for compute capacity and then, you know, all the associated things, memory and, and, and interconnected and everything else. Um, data center space. And so e every dollar right now that’s being put into the ground is turning into revenue.And, and it, and in fact, I actually think there’s an interesting thing happening, which is because everybody starve for capacity, the models that we actually have that we can use today are inferior versions of what we would have if not for the supply constraints. That’s true. Um, if Right pose a hypothetical universe in which GPUs were 10 times cheaper and 10 times more plentiful mm-hmm.The models would be much better. ‘cause you would just allocate a lot more money to training and you’d just build better models and they would be better. Um, and so we’re, we’re actually getting the sandbag version of the technology.swyx: Yeah. No. Everything we use is quantized because the, the labs have to keep the, the full versions,Marc: right?swyx: LikeMarc: we’re not even getting the good stuff.swyx: Yeah.Marc: But, but getting the good stuff, it’s, it’s just, even if technical progress stops. Once there’s like a much bigger build of like GPU manufacturing capacity and memory, you know, all, all the things that have to happen in the course of the next five or 10 years.Once it happens, even the current technology is gonna get, gonna get much better. And then as you know, like there’s just like a million ways to use this stuff. Like there’s just like a million use cases for this. Mm-hmm. Like, it, it, you know, this isn’t just sending packets across a, a thing, whatever, and hoping that people find something to do with it.This is just like, oh, we apply intelligence into every domain of human activity. And then it works like incredibly well. Yeah. Um. Here’s what I know, here’s what I know. Um, in the next three or four year, it’s like somewhere between three or four years out, basically everything is selling out. So like the, the entire supply chain is, is, is, is sold out or, or, or selling out.And so there, there’s no, like, we’re just gonna have like chronic supply shortage for, you know, for years to come. Um, there’s going to be a response from the market that’s gonna result in an enormous, you know, it’s happening now. An enormous flood of investment in a new fab capacity and ev you know, every, everything else to be able to do that, at some point the supply chain constraints will unlock, you know, at least to some degree that will be another accelerant to industry growth when that happens.‘cause the products will get better and everything will get cheaper. Um, and so, so I know that’s gonna happen. I know that, you know, the deployments, you know, the, the actual use cases are like really compelling. And then, like I said, you know, with reasoning and agents and so forth, like, I know they’re just gonna get like much, much better from here.And so I, I, I know the capabilities are like really real and serious. I also know that the technical progress is not going to stop. It. It, it is excel. It is, is accelerating. Like the, the breakthroughs are are tremendous. I mean, even just month over month, the breakthroughs are really dramatic. And so, you know, I think if you were a cynic and there, there are cynics, you can look at 2000, you can find echoes.But I can’t even imagine betting it that this is gonna like somehow disappoint and, you know, at least for years to come, I think it would be essentially suicidal to make that bet. Yeah. Um, it was that Michael Burry, uh, uh, that’sswyx: anMarc: interesting guy, huh? We’ll pick on a guy. We’ll pick, let’s pick on one guy.We’ll pick. Well ‘cause he did, he he came out with, it was, it was the, heswyx: doesn’t mind.Marc: It was the Nvidia short. Right. He came with the Nvidia short. And then if you guys probably talked about this, which is the, the analysis now that like the current models are getting better faster at such a rate that if you are running an Nvidia, if you’re running an Nvidia inference chip today, that’s three years old, you’re making more money on it today than you did three years ago because the pace of improvement of the software is, is faster than the, the, the depreciation cycle, the chip.And then my understanding is Google is running. I don’t if they’ve, I don’t know exactly what, uh, these are rumors that I’ve heard or maybe it’s public, but, um, I think Google’s running very old TPUs, very profitably. Ference. Yeah. And very profit and very profitably. Yeah. Um, and so, so it actually turns out, as far as I can tell, it’s actually the opposite of the Beery thesis is actually.He was actually 180 degrees wrong. It’s actually the, the, the, the old Nvidia chips are getting more valuable, which is something that’s like literally never happened before. Like it’s never been the case that you have an older model chip that becomes more valuable, not less valuable. And that, and again, that’s an expression of the just ferocious pace of software progress.Ferocious pace of capability payoff. Yeah. Uh, that you’re getting on the other side of this. And so I just, the idea of betting against that, like.swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Well, one ofMarc: my, it seems like an invitation to get your face ripped up.swyx: One of my early hits was like modeling the lifespan of the H 100 and h two hundreds and, and going like, you know, usually they advise like four to seven years and it was, you know, maybe you sort of realistically haircut cut it down to two to three.Yeah. But actually it’s going up and not down. Yeah. And, and uh, that’s, I mean that’s, I think that’s the dream. Uh, we are finding utilization and I think utilization solves all problems. Like, you can, you can find use, use cases for even like the poor, like even memory, we’re having a shortage. Right. And, and even like the, the shittier versions of, of memory that we do have, we are finding use cases for it.So like That’s great.Marc: Yeah.Alessio: How, how important is open source AI and kinda like edge inference in a world in which you have three years of supply crunch. Like, do you think in the, like, you know, if you fast forward like five years, like how do you think about inference, uh, in the data center versus at the edge?Marc: Well, so just to start, yeah. So I think, I think open source is very important for a bunch of reasons. I think edge, edge inference is very important for a bunch of reasons. I, I think just practically speaking, if we’re just gonna have fundamental construc, supply crunches for the next, I mean, you, you guys know if you just project forward demand over the next three years, right?Yeah. Relative to supply, one of the, its main predictions you can do is what’s gonna, what, what’s gonna happen to the cost of, of inference in the core, uh, over the next three years? And like, it may rise dramatically, right? Like, so, so what is, and then is, is, you know, like the, the, the big model competition are subsidizing heavily right now.Right? Right. And so, so what’s the, what will be the average person’s, you know, per day, per month token cost, you know, three years from now to do all the things that they want to do. And I, I don’t know, it’s gonna. I mean, I have, you guys probably have friends, I have friends today who are paying a thousand dollars a day for open claw, for claw tokens to run open claw.Right? And so, okay. $30,000 a month. Right? And, and by the way, those, those friends have like a thousand more ideas of the things that they want their claw to do, right? Yeah. And so you, you could imagine there, there’s like latent demand of up to, I don’t know, five or $10,000 a day of, of, of tokens for a fully deployed, you know, per personal agent.Uh, and obviously consumers can’t pay that, right? And so, so, but it gives you a sense of the fu of the fu of the future scope of demand, right? And so, so even, even if there’s a 10 x improvement in price performance, that still, you know, goes to a hundred dollars a day, which is still way beyond what people can pay.Mm-hmm. So there’s just gonna be like. Ferocious to me, by the way. The agent thing, the other interesting thing is I think the agent thing, so up until now, a lot of the constraints of GGPU constraints, I think the agent thing now also translates into CPU constraints. Mm-hmm. Right?swyx: CPU memory.Marc: Yes. CPU memory, right?And so, like the entire chip ecosystem is just gonna get wait,swyx: wait for network constraints, that that will be the killer.Marc: It’s all bottleneck potentially for years. And so, so I, I think that Brad, and, and I think it’s actually possible, I mean, generally inference costs are gonna keep coming down, but I think the, let’s put it this way, the rate of decline, I think may level out here for a bit because of these supply constraints.And then at some point, maybe the lab stops subsidizing so much and that, that, that again, will be, be an issue. And so there’s just gonna be so much more demand for inference than, than can be satisfied. Um, you know, kind of with the centralized model. And then, and then, you know, you guys know this, but like all the, just the dramatic, I mean just the dramatic innovations that have happened in the Apple silicon to be able to do, uh, inferences, it’s quite amazing the level of effort being put.Like the open source guys are putting incredible effort into getting, you know, this recurring pattern where the big model will never run on a pc, and then six months later mm-hmm. Oh, it runs in a pc, right? It’s like amazing. And there’s very smart people working on that. So there’s all that. And then look, there’s also, you know.There’s also like other, there’s other motivators. There’s other motivators which is just like, okay, how much trust are the big centralized model providers? You know, how much trust are they building in the market versus, you know, how much are, you know, at least for, in certain cases with some people, for certain use cases, people being like, well, I’m not willing to just like, turn everything over.So there, there, there’s all the trust issues. Um, by the way, there’s also just like straight up price optimization. There’s many uses of AI where you don’t need Einstein in the cloud. You just need like a, a a, a smart local model. There’s also performance issues where you want, you know, you want, you know, you’re gonna want your doorknob to have an AI model in it.Right. You know, to be able to, you know, do, um, you know, to be able to do access control. Um, obviously like everything with a chip is gonna have an AI model in it. Mm-hmm. And it, a lot of those are gonna be local. Um, and so, yeah. No, like I think, I think you’re gonna have ti and then you’re gonna, by the way, also wearable devices, you know, you don’t wanna do a complete round trip.You want, you know, you, whatever your smart devices are, you want it to be like super low latency. Yeah.swyx: The question, do we care who makes it? Yeah. One of the biggest news this week was the collapse of AI two, the Allen Institute. Mm-hmm. One of the actual American open source model labs. Yeah. Um, and, uh, I’m not that optimistic on, on American open source.Yeah. Like you, you guys invested in MIS trial and MIS trial’s doing extremely well outside of China. That’s about it.Marc: Yeah. We’ll see. We’ll see. I look, I, number one, I do think we care. Uh, I do think we, I do think we care who makes it. Um, I would say this, the, the, the, the previous presidential administration wanted to kill it in the us Oh yeah.They wanted to drown in the bathtub. Um, and so they wanted to kill it. So at least we have a government now that actually like, actually wants it wants it to happen. And youswyx: earned to councilMarc: and Yeah. And the new and the P pcast. Yeah. So the, the, you know, this admin for whatever other political issues people have, which are many, you know, this administration has, I think a very enlightened view and in particular an enlightened view on AI and in particular on open source ai.Uh, and so they’re very supportive. Um, my read is the Chi. The Chinese have a very, the various Chinese companies have a very specific reason to do open source, which is, they, they, they don’t fundamentally, they don’t think they can sell commercial, uh, AI outside of China right now. And or at least specifically not, not in the US for a combination of reasons.And so they, they kind of view, I think, open source AI as a bit of a loss leader against basically domestic, uh, you know, paid, paid services. And then kind of an, you know, kind of an ancillary products. You know, they’re, they’re very excited about it, by the way. I think it’s great. I think it’s great that they’re doing it.Um, you know, I think Deeps seek was like a gift to the world. Um, I think. The great thing about open source, open source, the, the, the impact of open source is felt two ways. One is you, you get the software for free, but the other is you get to learn how it works, right? And so like the paper, the paper, the paper and, and the code, right?And the code. And so, like, for example, I thought this was amazing. So open comes out with L one and it’s an amazing technical breakthrough, and it’s just like, absolutely fantastic. But of course they don’t explain how it works in detail. And then of course they hide the, they hide the reasoning traces, right?And, and then, and then, and then everybody’s like, okay, this is great, but like, who’s gonna be able to replicate this? Are other people gonna be able to do this? You know, is their secret sauce in there? And then our one comes out and it’s just like, there’s the code and there’s the paper, and now the whole world knows how to do it.And then, you know, three months later, every other AI model is, is adding reasoning. And so, so you get this kind of double, like even if the Chinese models themselves are not the models that get used, the education that’s taken place to the rest of the world, the information diffusion, you know, is incredibly powerful.So that happens and then, I don’t know. We’ll, we’ll see. You know, there are a bunch of American, you know, open source, you know, ai, uh, model companies. I mean, look, there’s gonna be tremendous, you know, there already is. There’s, you know, there’s gonna be tre there’s tremendous competition, uh, among the primary model companies.You know, there’s, depending on how you count, there’s like four or five, you know, big co model companies now that are, you know, kind of neck and neck, uh, in different ways. Um, uh, you know, and, and, and, um, you know, and then obviously Bo Bo both X and then MetAware involved are, you know, both have huge, you know, huge attempts to, you know, kind of, to kind of leapfrog underway.And then you’ve got, you know, a whole fleet of startups, new companies, including a whole bunch that we’re backing, that are, you know, trying to come out with different approaches. And then you’ve got whatever it is. I don’t know how, how many, how many, like main line foundation model companies are there in China at this point?It’s probably six. It’sswyx: five Tigers is what they call it. Yeah. Uh, Quinn is in questionable because there’s change in leadership,Marc: right?swyx: Yeah.Marc: But that, does that include, that includes like Moonshot,swyx: yes. Can deep seek, uh, uh, ZI, um, Quinn oh one is in there.Marc: Right. And then, um, and by dance and, and then you see,swyx: ance would be like the next tier ance.They weren’t as prominent. They weren’t, didn’t haveMarc: a leading. Yeah. But they, you at least, you know, ance is very inspiring and presumably they have more stuff coming and Tencent probably has more stuff coming and, and so forth. And so, so, so like, look, here, here would be a thing you can anticipate, which is there are not these markets, there are not going to be between the US and China right now, there’s like a dozen primary foundation model companies that are like at scale, at, at some level of a critical mass.It’s not gonna be a dozen in three years, right? Like, it just because these industries don’t bear a dozen, it’s, it’s gonna be three or you know, there’s gonna be three or four big winners or maybe one or two big winners. And so there’s gonna be like a whole bunch of those guys that are gonna have to figure out alternate strategies.Um, and I think like open source is one of those strategies. And so I, I think you could see like a whole, i, I, I think the questions like, who’s gonna do open source? I think that could change really fast. I, I think that, that, that’s a very dynamic thing. I think it’s very hard to predict what happens. And, and I think it’s very important.swyx: NVIDIA’s doing a lot.Marc: Well, I was gonna say. Well, exactly. And then you’re got Nvidia and then, and then, you know, just to, again, indu, there’s an old thing in business strategy, which is called, uh, commoditize Compliments. Commoditize the compliment. That’s right. And so if your Jensen is just kind of obvious, of course, you wanna commoditize the software.Yeah. And he’s, and to his enormous credit, he’s putting enormous resources behind that. And so maybe it, maybe it’s literally Nvidia and I think that would be great.Alessio: Yeah. Uh, narrative violation to European projects, uh, in the, uh, damn.swyx: I’m hosting my, uh, Europe, uh, conference soon. And I got both of them.Alessio: They got us.They got us. MarkMarc: finished. They got us, us. Well, wait a minute. Where was Peter? So where was Steinberger when he did? In AustriaAlessio: was, yeah, yeah, yeah.Marc: He was in what? He was in Vienna. Oh, he was in Vienna. And then where is he now?swyx: Uh, he’s moving to sf.Marc: Okay. Okay. Alright. Okay, there we go. And then, yeah, the PI guy, right?The PI guys are European.swyx: Yeah, they’re also, they’re buddies inAlessio: Australia. Mario’s also there. Yeah.Marc: Right. And are they, yeah, they haven’t announced yet. Any sort of change changed or have theyAlessio: No, they’re, they have a company there.Marc: Okay. Got, okay. Good.Alessio: Good, good,good.Alessio: Um,Marc: yeah, good.swyx: Anyways, I think pie and open cloud very important software things and, and I just wanted you to just go off on what you think.Marc: Yeah. So I think in co the, the combination of the two of them I think is one of the 10 most important softwares. Openswyx: Claw got all the attention, but Right. Talk about pie,Marc: pi pie’s, kind of the Yeah. PI’s, PI’s kind of the architectural breakthrough for those of us who are older. There was this whole thing that was very important in the world of software basically from like 1970 to, I don’t know, it still is very important, but like 19, from 1973 to like basically the creation of Linux, which is basically this, this thing used to call like the Unix mindset.Like so, so, ‘cause there were all these different, you know, theories. There are all these different operating systems and mainframes and, and then you know, all these windows and Mac and all these things. And then there was this, but kind of behind it all was this idea of kind of the Unix mindset. And the Unix mindset was this thing where basically you don’t have these, like, like in the old days, like, like the operating system that like made the computer industry really work, like in the 1960s mm-hmm.Was this thing called o os 360, which was this big operating system that IBM developed that was supposed to basically run everything. And it was this like giant monolithic architecture in the sky. It was like a, you know, it was like a giant castle. Um, of software. And, and by the way, it worked really well and they were very successful with it.But like, it was this huge castle in the sky, but it was this thing, it was almost unapproachable, which is like, you had to be kind of inside IBM or very close to IBM. And you had to really understand every aspect, how the system worked. And then the, the Unix sky is originally out of at and t and then out out of Berkeley, um, you know, came out and they said, no, let’s have a completely different architecture.And the way architecture’s gonna work is we’re gonna have, we’re gonna have a, a prompt and, and a, and a shell. And then, and then we’re gonna, all, all the functionality is gonna be in the form of these discreet modules, and then you’re gonna be able to chain the modules together. Mm-hmm. Yeah. And so like the, the, the op, it’s almost like the operating, operating system itself is gonna be a programming language.Um, and then that led led to the, the, the sort of centrality of the shell. Um, and then that led to sort of, uh, you know, basically chaining together Unix tools. And then that led to the emergence of these, these scripting languages like Pearl, where you, you could basically kind of very easily do this, and then the shells got more sophisticated and then, and then, and then look like, you know, that, that, that number one, that worked and that, that was the world I grew up in.Like I was, I was a Unix guy. You know, sort of from, call it 1988 to, you know, kind of all, all the way through my work and it worked really well. It, it’s in the background, um, you know, nor normal people don’t need to, didn’t need to necessarily know about it, but like, if you were doing like system architecture, application development, you, you, you knew all about it.Um, and then, you know, it’s been in the background ever since. And, you know, look, your Mac still has a Unix shell, you know, kind of in there, and your iPhone still has a Unix shell kind of buried in there somewhere. So they’re kind of in there. And then, you know, the Windows shell is kind of a, you know, sort of a weird derivative of that.But, um, you know, but look, the inter, the internet runs on Unix, um, and that smartphones, actually, both iOS and Android are Unix derivatives. And so, you know, kind of Unix did end up winning. But, but anyway, and then we just started taking that for granted. And then, and then so, so basically the, the way I think about what happened with Pie and then with Open Claw is basically what those guys figured out is, I always say the, the great breakthroughs are obvious in retrospect, right?Which is the best kind, the best kind. They weren’t obvious at the time or somebody else would’ve done them already. Um, and so there is a, like a real conceptual leap, but then you look at it sort of the backwards looking and you’re just like, oh, of course. Mm-hmm. Like the, the, to me those are always the best breakthroughs.Well, actually language models themselves are like that. It’s just like, oh, next token completion. Oh, of course.swyx: Yeah. What other objective mattered?Marc: Yeah, exactly. But, but like it, right. But she’s even saying it wasn’t obvious until somebody actually did it. Right. And so the conceptual breakthrough is real and deep and powerful and, and very important.And so the way I think about pie and olaw is it’s basically marrying the, the language model mindset to the un to the Unix, basically shell prompt mindset. And so it’s, it’s basically this idea that what, what, so what is an agent, right? And as, as, and as you know, like many smart people who have been trying to figure out what an agent is for, for, for decades, and they’ve had many architectures to build agents and the whole thing.And it turns out what is an agent. So it turns out what we now know is an agent is the following. It’s, so it’s a language model. And then above that, it’s a ba, it’s a bash shell. Um, so it’s a, it’s a Unix shell, and then it’s, and then the agent has access, uh, has access to, to the shell. And, you know, hopeful, hopefully in a sandbox, maybe in, maybe in a sandbox.So it’s, it’s the model. Um, it’s the shell. Um, and then it’s a fi, it’s a file system. Um, and then the state is stored in files. And then, you know, there’s the markdown format for the, you know, for, for the files themselves. And then, and then there’s basically what in Unix is called Aron job. There’s a loop and then there’s a heartbeat for the, there’s heartbeat and, and the thing basically Wake Wakes up.Wakes up. So it’s basically LLM plus shell, plus file system, plus markdown, plus kron. And it turns out that’s an agent. And, and, and every part of that, other than the model is something that we already completely know and understand. And in fact, it turns out that like the latent power of the Unix shell is like extraordinary because basically like all, like, there’s just like an, there’s just enormous latent power in the shell.There’s enormous numbers of Unix commands, there’s enormous number of command line interfaces into all kinds of things already in the, you know, your entire, I mean your entire, just to start with, your computer runs on a shell. If you’re running a Mac or a, or, or a phone, your computer, your computer’s running on a shell, uh, already.And so like the full power of your computer is available at the command line level. Um, and then it turns out it’s really easy to expose other functions as a command line interface. And so like this whole idea where we need like MCP and these like product mm-hmm. Fancy protocols, whatever, it’s like, no, we don’t, we just need like a command, command line thing.So that’s the architecture. And then it turns out what is your agent? Your agent has a bunch of files starting a file system. And then there’s the thing that just like completely blew my mind when I write my head around it as a result of this, which is like, okay. This means your agent is now actually independent of the model that it’s running on.Because you can actually swap out a different LLM underneath your agent and your, your agent will change personality somewhat. ‘cause the model is different, but all of the state stored in the files will be retained.swyx: Yeah. Different instruction set, but you just compiledit.Marc: Right, exactly. And it’s all right.It’s like right. Swapping out a ship and recompiling, but it’s, it’s still, it’s still your agent with all of its memories. Um, and with all of its capabilities. And then by the way, you can also swap out the shell, uh, so you can move it to a different execution environment that is also, is also a b shell, by the way, you can also switch out the file system, right.Uh, and you can, and you can, and you can swap out the, the, the heartbeat for the, the crown framework, the, the loop that the agent framework itself. And so your agent basically is ba basically at the end of the day, it’s just. It’s just, its files. Um, and then, and then there’s of course it a openswyx: call.Marc: Yeah, it’s, it’s basically, it’s, it’s just the files.Um, and then by the way, as a consequence of that, the agent and then the agent itself, it turns out a couple important things. So one is it, it’s, it, it can migrate itself, right? And so you’re, you can instruct your agent, migrate yourself to a different, uh, runtime environment, migrate yourself to a different file system, migrate yourself to a different, you know, swap out the language model.Your agent will do all that stuff for you. And then there’s the final thing, which is just amazing, which is the agent is the agent actually has full introspection. It actually, it actually knows about its own files and it could rewrite its own files. Right. Which by the way, is basically no widely deployed software system in history where the, the, the thing that you’re using actually has full introspective knowledge of how it itself works and is able to modify itself.Like that, that, I mean, there have been toy systems that have had that, but there, there’s never been a widely deployed system that has that capability and then that leads you to the capability. That just like completely blew my mind when I wrap my head around it, which is you can tell the agent to add new functions and features to itself and it can do that.Extend yourself. Yeah. Right? Extend, extend yourself. Like extend yourself. Give yourself a new capability. Right? And so, and so literally it’s just like you run into somebody at a party and they’re like, oh, I have my open claw, do whatever, connect to my eat, sleep bed, and it gives me better advice and sleep.And you go home at night and you tell your claw, or if they’re at the party, by the way, you tell your claw, oh, add this capability to yourself. And your claw will say, oh, okay, no problem. And it’ll go out on the internet and it’ll figure out whatever it needs and then it’ll go out to claw code or whatever.It’ll write whatever it needs. And then the next thing you know, it has this new capability. And so you don’t even have to, like, you can have it upgrade itself without even having to, without having to do anything other than tell it that you want it to do that. And so anyway, so the, the combination of all this is just, I mean, this is just like a massive, incredible, I mean, it’s just incredible.Like if I, if I were, if I were 18, like this is a hundred, this is what I would be spending all of my time on. This is like such an incredible conceptual breakthrough. Yeah. And again, pe people are gonna look at it and they already get this response. People are gonna look at it and they’re gonna say, oh, well, where’s the breakthrough?‘cause these, the, all of these components were already known before. Mm-hmm. But, but this is the key, the key to the breakthrough was by using all these components that were known before, you get all of the underlying capability of that’s buried in there. And so all, and so for example, computer use all of a sudden just kind of falls, trivi, trivial.Of course it’s gonna be able to use your computer. It has full access to the shell. Right. And then, and then you just, you, you give it access to a browser, and then you’ve got the computer and the browser and, and often away it goes. And, and then you’ve got all the abilities of the browser also. Um, yeah.And so, and so the capability unlock here is profound. My friends who are, you know, deepest into this, are having their claw do like a, like, literally like a thousand things in their lives. They have new ideas every day. They’re just like constantly throwing new challenges at the thing. And by the way, it’s early and, you know, these are, you know, these are prototypes and there are, you know, as you guys know, there’s security issues.Yeah. And, and so, you know, there’s a bunch of stuff to be ironed out, but the, the unlock of capability is just incredible.swyx: Yeah.Marc: And I, I have absolutely no doubt that everybody in the world is gonna, is gonna have at least, you know, an agent like this, if not an entire family of agents. And we’re gonna be living in a world where I think it’s almost inevitable now that this is the way people are gonna use computers.swyx: I was gonna say for someone who is deeply familiar with social networks, the next step is your claw talking to my Claw. Mm-hmm.Marc: Postingswyx: on Claw Facebook, uh, posting their jobs on cloud LinkedIn and close posting their tweets on claw XAI or what, whatever, you know. Um, I do think that that is how, uh, you know, we, we get into some danger there in, in terms of like alignment and whether or not we want these things to, to, to run.Marc: You guys know where Rent a, rent a human.com.swyx: Yeah. Rent a,Marc: yeah. Yeah.swyx: I mean, it’s Fiverr, it’s TaskRabbit.Marc: Sure, of course.swyx: MechanicalAlessio: Turk.Marc: Yeah. But flipped, right. The agent hiring the people.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: Which of course is gonna happen, right? It’s obviously gonna happen.Alessio: I’m curious if you have any thoughts on the engineering side.So when you build the browser, the internet, you know, just a bunch of mostly plain text file plus some images, and today the, every website and app is like, so complex. Somehow, you know, the browser kept evolving to fit that in. Mm-hmm. Are there any design choices that were made like early in the browser and kinda like the internet and the protocols that you’re seeing agents similar to this?Like, Hey, this thing is just not gonna work for like this type of new compute and we should just. Rip it out right now.Marc: There were a whole bunch, but I’ll give you a couple. So one is, um, and we didn’t, you know, to be clear like this, this was not, you know, this is totally different. We didn’t have the capabilities we have today, but because Wet have, we didn’t have the language models underneath this, but, um, we did have this idea that human readability actually mattered a great deal.Um, and, and, and so, and specifically in those days, it was, it was not so much English language, but it was there, there was a design decision to be made between binary protocols and text protocols. And basically every, every, every basically old school systems architect that had grown up between like the 1960s and the 1990s basically said, you know, the internet, it’s, what do you know about the internet?It’s star for bandwidth. You, you just, you have these very narrow straws. Uh, you know, look, people, when we did the work on Mosaic, like pe, people who had the internet at home had a 14 kilobit modem, right? So you’re, you’re trying to like hyper optimize every bit of data mm-hmm. That, that travels over the network.And so obviously if you’re gonna design a protocol like HGTP, you’re gonna want it to be binary, you know, highly compressed, binary protocol for maximum efficiency. And you’re gonna wanna have it be like a single connection that persists. And you’re, you’re, the last thing you’re gonna wanna do is like, bring up and tear down new connections.And you definitely, you’re not gonna, not gonna want a text protocol. And so of course we said no. We actually want to go completely the other direction. It’s obviously, we only want text protocols. Uh, by the way, same thing in H TM L itself. We want html to be relatively verbose. You know, we want the tags to actually be like human readable.Um, we wanna useswyx: the most inefficient things possible.Marc: Yeah, we wanna do the, we wanna do the in, we wanna do the inefficient things.swyx: You’re the original token Mixer.Marc: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Basically it’s just like better lessonAlessio: filled.Marc: Well, yeah. Well actually this was, this was actually the, the conscious thing, which basically says just like assume, assume a future of infinite, infinite bandwidth built for that, right?And then basically what it was, is it was a bet that it, it was a bet that if the system, if the, if the latent capabilities of the system were powerful enough, and that was obvious enough to people that would create the demand for the bandwidth that would cause the supply of bandwidth to get built that would actually make the whole thing work.And then specifically what we wanted was we wanted everything to be human readable because we, at the engineering level, we wanted people to be able to read the protocol coming over the wire and be able to understand it with their, with their bare eyes without having to like disassemble it or whatever.Right. Have it converted outta binary. Right. And so the, the, the, all the pro, you know, HTTP and everything else were, were, it was always, uh, text protocols. Uh, and the same thing with HTML and in, in many ways, some people say that the key breakthrough in the browser was the view source option, um, which is every webpage you go to, you could view source, which means you could see how it worked, which means you could teach yourself how to build right new, uh, to, to build new webpages.There was that. So human readability. Um, and, and again, human readability in those days still meant technical, you know, specs. You know, now it means English language, but there’s an incredible latent power in giving everybody who uses the system the option to be able to drop down and actually understand and see how it’s working.And that worked really well for the web and I think it’s working really well for ai. That was one. Um, what was the other, um. A big part of the idea of web servers was to actually surface the underlying latent capability of the operating system and to be able to surface the, uh, also the underlying latent capability of the database because basically what was a web server?What, what, what, what is a web server? Fundamentally? Architecturally, it’s, it’s, it’s the operating system. So it’s, it’s the operating system’s ability to, you know, it’s running on top of an os. So it’s the OSS ability to manage. The file system and do everything else that you wanna do, process everything. Um, and then of course, a lot of early, you know, a lot, a lot of websites are, are front ends to databases.Um, and so you wanted to, you wanted to unleash the underlying latent power of whether it was an Oracle database or some other, you know, some other Postgres or whatever, whatever it was. Um, and so a lot of the function of the web server was to just bridge from that internet connection coming in to be able to unlock the underlying power of the OS and the database.Uh, and again, people looked at it at the time and they were like, well, is this really, does this really matter? Like, is this important Because we’ve had databases forever and we’ve always had, you know, user interfaces for databases and this is just another user interface for a database. And it’s like, okay, yeah, fair enough.But on the other side of that is just like, this is now a much better interface to databases and one that 8 billion people are going to use and is going to be like, far easier to use and far more flexible. And, and, and, and you’re not just gonna have old databases. Now you have a system where people can actually understand why they want to build, you know, a million times more database apps than they have in the past.And then the number of databases in the world exploded. And so again, this goes to this thing of like building, building in layers. Some of the smartest people in the industry look at any new challenge and they’re like, okay, I’m, I’m, I need to build a new kind of application. So the first thing I need to do is build a new programming language, right?And then the next thing I need to do is build a new operating system, right? And then the next thing I need to do is I need to build a new chip. Right? And they, they kind of wanna reinvent everything. And I’ve, I’ve always had, maybe it’s just, I don’t know, pg pragmatic mentality or something, or maybe an engineering over science mentality, but it’s more like, no, you have just like all of this latent power, uh, in the existing systems and you, you don’t want to be held back by their constraints, but what you wanna do is you wanna kinda liberate that power and open it up.Yeah. And so I, I think, I think, and I think the web did that for those reasons. And I think it’s the same thing now that’s happening. It’s a greatswyx: perspective on the web.Alessio: Programming language just is not a good thing. We have Brett Taylor on the podcasts and we were talking about rust. And you know, rust is memory safe by the phone.So why are we teaching the model to not write memory, unsafe code, just use rust, and then you get it for free. How much do you think there’s like. Time to be spent like recreating some of these things instead of taking them for granted. I’ll be like, oh, okay. Python is kind of slow Pythonswyx: type scripts,Alessio: you know?It’s like, yeah.swyx: As, as imperfect as they are, they are the lingua franca.Marc: I mean, I think this is gonna change a lot. ‘cause I don’t think the models care what language they program in. Mm-hmm. And I think they’re gonna be good at programming in every language, and I think they’re gonna be good at translating from any language to any other language.Like, okay, so this gets into the coding side of things. I, I think we’re going through a really fundamental change. And then, look, I, I grew up hand, you know, I grew up hand code, you know? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I grew up hand coding. Everything I did was actually everything I did actually was written in CI wasn’t evenAlessio: back in the days,Marc: I wasn’t even using c plus plus, so I, or like Java or any of this stuff.Right. Uh, and so, um, I, everything, everything I ever did, I was like managing my own memory at, at, at the level of c and then I, you know, I, I’m still from the generation that, you know, I, I knew assembly language and, you know, I, I, you know, um, so I, I could drop down and do things, uh, right on the ship. And so we, we’ve just, we’ve all, all of us, we’ve always lived in a world in which software is like this precious thing that like, you have to think about very carefully.And it’s like really hard to generate good software. And there’s only a small number of people who can do it. And like, you have to be very, like, jealous in terms of thinking about like, how do you allocate, like what are your engineers working on and how many good engineers do you actually have? And how much software can they write?And how can, how much software can human beings, you know, kind of maintain? And I think like all those assumptions are being shot right out the window right now. Like, I think they’re, I, I think those days are just over. And I think the new world is like, actually high quality software is just like infinitely available.Mm-hmm.Marc: And if you need new software to do X, Y, Z, like, you’re just gonna wave your hand and you’re gonna get it. And then if it’s, if you don’t like the languages written in, you just tell the thing, all right, I want the, now I want the rush version. Um, or, you know, se secure, you know, secure. We’re about to, by the way, we’re about to go through computer security is about to go through the most dramatic change ever, which is number one, like every single latent security bug is about to be exposed,swyx: right?Marc: So we’re gonna have like, the in, we’re, we’re, we’re set up here for like the computer security apocalypse for a while. But, but, but on the other side of it, now we have a coding agents that can go in and actually fix all the security bugs. And so how, how are you gonna secure a software in the future?You’re gonna tell the, tell the bot to secure it, and it’s gonna go through and, and fix it all. And so, so this thing that was this incredibly scarce resource of high quality software is just going to become a completely fungible thing that you’re just gonna have as much as you want, right? Uh, and, and that has like, you know, that has like tons and tons of consequences in some sense.The answer to the question that you posed, I, I think it’s just somewhat, I don’t know, simple or something, or straightforward, which is just, if you want all your software and rust, you just, all the bot, you want all your software and rust, like, things that used to be like hard or even like, seem like an insurmountable mountain to get to get through all of a sudden, I think, become very easy.swyx: I, I think Brett had a theory that there would be a more optimal language for lms. And so the contention is, uh, there isn’t like, just don’t bother, just whatever humans already use LMS are perfectly capable, porting.Marc: I think we’re pretty close to being, I don’t know if this would work today. I think we’re pretty close to being able to ask the AI what would its opt optimal language be and let Right, and let it design it.True. Okay, here’s a question. Are you gonna even gonna have programming languages in the future? Um, or the ai, are the AI just gonna be emitting binaries? Let’s assume for a moment that humans aren’t coding anymore. Let’s assume it’s all bots. The bot. What levels of intermediate abstraction do the bots even need?swyx: Yeah.Marc: Or are they just coding binary directly? Did you see there’s actually an experi, somebody just did this thing where they have a, they have a, a language model now that actually emits model weights for a new language model. Right. And so will the bots be justAlessio: predict the weightsMarc: Will, yeah. Will the bots literally be emitting not just coding binaries, but will they, will, will they actually be admitting weights for, for new models?Yeah. Direct directly and. Conceptually, there’s no reason why they can’t do both of those things. Uh, like architecturally. Both of those things seem completely possible. It’sswyx: very inefficient. You’re basically veryMarc: inefficient.swyx: A simulation of a simulation in a simulation inside of the weights. Correct?Marc: Yeah, yeah. Very inefficient. But like, look, LMS are already like incredibly inefficient. Ask an uh, in favor thing, ask Claude, add two plus two equals four. Right? It’s just like, you know, it’s like, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s like whatever, billions and billions of times more inefficient than using your pocket calculator.swyx: Yeah.Marc: But, but, but yet the, the, the payoff is so great of the general capability. And so anyway, like I, I kind of think in 10 years, like, I’m not sure. Yeah. Like, I’m not sure there will even be a salient concept of a programming language, um, in the way that we understand it today. And in fact, what we may be doing more and more is a form of interpretability, which is we’re trying to understand why the bots have decided to, uh, structure, uh, code in the way that they have.swyx: I mean, if you play it through, you don’t need browsers, then like, that’s the depth of the browser.Marc: Well, so I, I would take it a step further, which is you may not need to use your interfaces. So who is gonna use software in the future?swyx: Other bots.Marc: Other bots. Yeah. Yeah. Andswyx: so you still need to, I don’t know, pipe information in,Marc: do we?swyx: And outMarc: reallyswyx: well, what are you gonna do then?Marc: Are you sureswyx: you’re just gonna log off and touch grass?Marc: Whatever you want. Exactly. Isn’t that better?swyx: I want software to do stuff for me.Marc: Isn’t that? But isn’t that better? I mean, look, I, you know, I don’t know. Look like, you know, you know, you, all the arguments here, you know, it was not that long ago that 99% of humanity was behind a plow.swyx: Right.Marc: Right. And what are people gonna do if they’re not plowing fields all day to, to, to grow food? Right. And it just turns out there’s like much better ways for people to spend time than plowing fields. Yeah.swyx: Dooms growing.Marc: Uh, yeah, exactly. Exactly. Or, you know, talking to their friends and look, and I’m not an absolutist and I’m not a utopian.And I, and to be clear, like I’ve, I have an 11-year-old and he’s learning how to code and like I’m, you know, I, I think it’s still a really good idea to learn how to code and so forth, but I just, if you project forward, you just have to think forward to a world in which it’s just like, okay, I’m just gonna tell the thing what I need and it’s gonna do it, and then, and then it’s gonna do it in whatever way is most optimal for it to do it.Mm-hmm. Yeah. Unless I tell it to do it non optimally. Like if I tell it to do it in Java or in Rust or whatever, it’ll do it, I’m sure. But like, if I’m just gonna tell it to do, it’s, gonna do it in whatever way is like the optimal way to do it. Yeah. And then I, and then if I need to understand how it works, I’m gonna ask it to explain to me how it works.Right. And so it’s gonna be doing its own, interpret it, it’s gonna be the engine of interpretability to explain itself. And I, I just am not convinced that, that I’m not, I’m not convinced that in that world you have these historical, the goals of the abstractions will be whatever, the Boston network with the human Right.Alessio: Yeah. Yeah. That, well, I, I’m curious like. If that’s true, then shouldn’t the models providers be building some internal language representation that they can do extreme, kinda like rl uh, and reward modeling around, because it’s like, today they’re kind of like tied to like type script and Python because the users need to write in that language versus they can have their own thing internally and like they don’t need to teach it to anybody.They just need to teach their model. And I think that’s how you get maybe the version between the models, like going back to like the pie open claw thing. It’s like, oh, I built all the software using the open AI model and now switch to the RO model. But the TRO model doesn’t understand the thing. So I I, it feels like there still needs to be some obstruction.But maybe not. Maybe that’s the lockin that the model providers want to have. I don’t,Marc: I’m not even sure that’s lockin though. ‘cause why can’t the second model just learn what the first model has done? Like,swyx: exactly.Marc: Okay. So okay. Give you an example. So as you know, models can now reverse engineer software by, right?Isn’t it the whole thing now where people are reverse engineering, like Nten, Nintendo, gay binaries. Yeah. So you, you have like there’s, I’ve seen a bunch of reports like this where somebody has like a favorite game from the 1980s and the source code is like long dead, but they have like a binary brand to do a chip or something, another reverse engineer to get a version that runs in their Mac.Right. And so if you reverse it, if, this is why I kinda say if you’re reversing like X 86 binaries, then why can’t you reverse engineerAlessio: whatever the degree. Yeah. And because we’re all on a Unix based system, it has to be reversible because it needs to run on the target.Marc: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Basically.And so I just, I just think it’s this thing where it’s just like, and by the way, and everything we’re describing is something that human beings in theory could have done before, but just with like, right. Yeah, yeah. But with enormous where, but it was just always like cost and labor prohibitive. Reverse engineer.I learned how to reverse engineer. Human beings can reverse engineer binaries. Yeah. It’s just for any complex binary, you need like a thousand years mm-hmm. To do it. But now with a model, you don’t. And so all of a sudden you get, you get these things. Or, or another way to think about it is so much of human built systems are to compensate for the human limitations.swyx: Mm-hmm.Marc: Yep. Right? Um, and if you don’t have the human limitations anymore, then all of a sudden you have, and, and it’s not that you, you won’t have abstractions, but you’ll have a different kind of abstraction. Yep. Yep.swyx: I have two topics to bring us to a close. And, uh, you could pick whichever ones. Uh, just talking about protocols, was it you or someone else?Uh, I forget my internet history. Who said that? Like the biggest mistake that we didn’t figure out in the early days was payments. Yes. Was that you?Marc: Yes. Itswyx: was a 4Marc: 0 2swyx: 0 2 4Marc: 0 2 payment required.swyx: We have a chance now. Nope. I don’t think we’re gonna figure it out. I don’t know. Like, what’s your take?Marc: Oh, I think, we’ll, yeah, no, now I think it’s gonna happen for sure.swyx: Yeah.Marc: Yeah. And there’s two reasons to example for sure. One is we actually have internet native money now in the form of crypto. Stable coins. Stable coins and crypto. And this is, I, I think this is the grand unification basically of ai, crypto, uh, is what’s about to happen now. Um, I think AI is the crypto killer app, I think is where, where this is really gonna come out.Um, and then the other is it’s just, it, I mean it’s just, I think it’s now obvious. It’s like obviously AI agents are gonna need money and it’s already happening, right? If you’ve got a c if you’ve got a claw and you wanted to buy things for you, you have to give it money in some form.swyx: I would say the adoption’s probably like 0.1% if, if that, but Yeah.Marc: Oh, today? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. But think, think forward, like where is it goingswyx: forward thinkingMarc: The ultimate principle of everything and, and everything that I think I, we, we do is, it’s the William Gibson quote, which is, the future is already here. It just isn’t distributed. Mm-hmm. It isn’t, isn’t distributed yet.My friends who are the most aggressive use users of, of, of, of open claw, just like have given their clause bank accounts and credit cards. Um, and, and, and, and, and not only have they done it. Obvious that they needed to do it because it’s obvious that they needed to be able to spend money on their behalf.swyx: Yeah. Yeah.Marc: It’s just completely obvious. And so, and again, like, so the number of people who have done that today to your point is like, I don’t know, probably 5,000 or something. Yeah. Butswyx: it’ll grow.Marc: That’s how these things startswyx: actually, I mean, since, uh, you keep mentioning,Marc: and by the way, open cloud, by the way, if you don’t give it a bank account, it’s just gonna break into your, your, it’s gonna break high agency, it’s gonna break into your bank account anyway, and, and take your money.So you, you might, as you might as well do it, you might as well do it,swyx: uh,Marc: by the way. I really love, I gotta tell you, I really love the phenomenon. I love the Yolo. Um, I’m not doing it myself to be clear, but, but I love the people that are just like, yeah, what, what is it? Skip, skip, vision,swyx: danger, skip.Marc: Dangerous.swyx: Which by the way, is a Facebook thing.Marc: Okay?swyx: Right. Because, uh, because we, uh, in Facebook, they, they have this culture to name the thing dangerous, so that you are aware when you enable the flag that you are opting into a dangerous thing.Marc: Okay, good.swyx: And they brought it into open ai and of course thatMarc: makes it enticing.swyx: Sam runs Codex, uh, with skip permissions on, on his laptop.Marc: Yes, a hundred percent. And so I, I th I think the way to actually see the future is to find the people who are doing that. There’s a man, you know, and they, you knows,swyx: log everything, you know, just watch it, watch the logs,Marc: but. Let’s actually find out what the thing can do.Yeah. And the way to find out what the thing can do is just like, try everything. Yeah. Let it try everything. Let it unlock everything. By the way, that’s how you’re gonna find all the good stuff it can do. By the way. That’s also how you’re gonna find all the flaws. Yeah. I think the people who turn that on for bots are like, they’re, they’re like martyrs to the progress of human civilization.Like, I feel very bad for their descendants that their bank accounts are gonna get looted by their bots in the first like 20 minutes. But I think the contribution that they’re making to the future of our species is amazing.swyx: It’s like gentleman science, you know?Marc: Yes. It’s, yes, yes. Experi yourself. It’s, uh, Ben Franklin out with the, trying to try, trying to get lightning to strike his, his, uh, his balloon and see, seeing if he gets electrocuted.swyx: Yeah.Marc: It’s, uh, Jonas sk with the polio vaccine, right. Injecting it. Yes. So, yes. I, I, I, I think we should have, like agl, we should have like flags and like we should have like monuments to the people that just let open club run their lives.swyx: More anecdotes of like, what, what are the craziest or interesting things that people listening to this should go, go home and do.Marc: I mean, this is, this is the, this is the, the extreme thing is just like the straight Yolo, like just Yeah. Turn, turn your lifeswyx: on. I mean, that’s a general capability. Yeah. Yeah. Is there like a specific story that was like, wow. And, and everyone in a group chat just lit up.Marc: I mean, like, you know, so there’s tons of, there’s already tons of health, you know, there’s the health dashboard stuff is just, is just absolute personal health.Absolutely amazing. Yeah. The number of stories on, um, I just don’t wanna violate people’s, you know, obviously personal. Yeah. Anonymized. But, um, you know, one of the things open clouds are really good at is hacking into all this stuff in your land. Uh, it’s really good. So, you know, internet of things. AKA internet of s**t.swyx: Yeah.Marc: Likeswyx: super insecure, but great. It’s discoverable.Marc: Yeah, it’s discoverable. O open claw is happy to scan your network, identify all the things. And then my, my, my friends who are most aggressive at this are having open claw take over everything in their house.swyx: Yeah.Marc: Take it takes over their security cameras.It takes over their, their, you know, their whatever their, their access control systems. It takes over their webcams. I have a friend whose claw watches him sleep. Put a webcam in your bedroom. Put the, put the claw, put the claw on a loop. Uh, I have it. Wake up frequently and have it watch, just tell it, watch me sleep.And, and I’ve, I’ve seen the transcripts and it’s literally like Joseph asleep. This is good. This is good that Joe’s asleep. ‘cause you know, I have, I have his health day and I know that he hasn’t been getting enough sleep and so it’s really good that he’s getting sleep. I really hope he gets his full, whatever, you know, five hours of REM sleep.Uh, Joe’s moving. Joe’s moving. Um, uh, Joe might be wake waking up. This is a real pro. If Joe wakes up now, he is gonna ruin his sleep cycle. Oh, okay. It’s okay. Joe just rolled over. Okay. He’s gone back to bed. Okay, good. Alright. Okay. I can relax. This is fine. He’sswyx: monitoring the situationMarc: monitoring, monitoring the situation, and, and being a bot, like, you know, is just like very focused, right?It’s just like, uh, this is like, its reason for existence is to watch Joe sleep. And then, and then I was talking to my friend who did this is like, you know, on the one hand it’s like, all right, this is weird and creepy. Um, and I need to, I need to, maybe this has taken over my life. And then the other thing is like, you know what if I had a heart attack in the middle of the night, this thing literally would like freak out and call 9 1 1.Like, there’s no question. This thing would figure out how to like, alert medical authorities and like, prob probably some in SWAT teams and like, do whatever would be required to save my life. Right? And so it’s like, you know, like, yeah. Like that’s happening. What else? Um, I’ll give, I, um, uh, it’s a company unitary, uh mm-hmm.That makes the robot dogs. Um, and I, I actually have one at home, which is, it’s actually really fun. The Chinese companies, the Chinese companies are so aggressive at adopting, uh, new technology, but they don’t always like, listen, take the time to really.swyx: Package it,Marc: package it, and maybe think it all the way through.And so, so the, at least the industry dog I have, so it, it has a old non LLM just control system, which by the way is not very good in, in markets. Well, but it, in practices, it’s not that good. It has trouble with stairs and so forth. And so it’s not quite what it should be. But then the language model thing comes out in the voice.So they, they add, so they add LLM capability and then they, they add a voice mode to it. Um, but, but that LLM capability is not at all connected to the control system. So, so you’ve got this schizophrenic dog that like, is a complete idiot when it comes to climbing the stairs, but it will happily teach you quantum mechanics.Right. In like a lum English accent. Right. Like, it, it, it is just like absolutely amazing. Jagged intelligence. Yeah. Yeah. Talk about jagged and then, now obviously what’s gonna happen in the future is, is they’re gonna connect together, but they’ll do it. But right now it’s, it’s, and so right now it’s not that useful.And so I, I have a friend who has one of these who had his claw basically hack in and rewrite the code Rew write new firmware. Yeah. Write new firmware for the, for the unit robot. Ooh. And now it’s, now it’s an actual pet dog for his kids.swyx: You could do that before or after like. The motion.Marc: Yeah. It’s, he said it’s completely different.He said it’s a complete transformation. Yeah. And whenever there’s an issue in the thing, now the claw just like reiterates the code. You know, you know, you goes in, it does, does the code and so is it kind of goes to your thing here. So, so like all of a sudden, uh, this is why the way we wanna think about AI code AI coding is not just like writing new apps.It’s also going in and rewriting all the old stuff that should have worked that never worked. And so, like, I, I think, I think basically, I think the internet, the internet of s**t is basically over. Like, I, I think everything, there’s a potential here where like all these devices in your house that have been like basically marginal or you know, basically dumb, you know, like all of a sudden they might all get really smart.Now you have smartswyx: home.Marc: You have to decide if, yes, there are horror movies in which this is just, of which this is the premise. And so you have to decide if you want this. Yeah. But, but, but this is the first time I can say with confidence, I now know how you could actually have a smart home. Yeah. Yeah.With 30 different kinds of things with chips and internet access, where it actually all makes sense and all works together and it’s all coherent in the, in the whole thing. And to have that unlock without a human being having to go do any of that work, like, you know.swyx: You know, I, I’m, I’m waiting for a, sorry, mark.Uh, I can’t let you open that fridge door, you know, likeMarc: Exactly, exactly. Yes, yes.swyx: Because Oh, yeah, yeah. You’re not supposed to eat rightMarc: now. I have all of, yes, I have every shred of health information, you know, and I know you think you’re doing, you know, da da da. I didn’t think you do this, but you know, this is a real, are you really, you know, are you really sure?And you know, you told, you know, you told me last night, you really don’t want me to let you do this, so, you know, I’m sorry, but the fridge door is locked. Um, yes. Openswyx: the fridge doors.Marc: Exactly. And by the way, I know you’re supposed to be studying for a test, so why don’t we, why don’t you go when you can pass the test, um, I will open the fridge door for you.Yeah.swyx: Final protocol and then, and then we can wrap up, uh, proof of humanMarc: Yes.swyx: Uh, right.Marc: Yeah.swyx: That’s the last piece that we gotta figure out.Marc: Yeah. So I would say there’s, there’s two massive, I would say, um, uh, sort of asymmetries in the world right now where we’ve known these asymmetries exist and we, we societally have an unwilling to grapple with them.And I think they’re both tipping right now. And, and they’re, they’re, they’re, they’re the same thing. It’s virtual world version. It’s a physical world version. So the virtual world version is, is the bot problem. We’re just like, you know, the internet, internet is just like a wash and bots, internet’s a wash and fake people.It has been forever. Um, by the way, a lot of that has to do with lack of money, you know? And so this, you know, this is the Yeah, this is this.swyx: My spicy take was these two are the same thing. And corporations of people too, you know? So interesting.Marc: Yeah, yeah, yeah.swyx: Okay. So a bank account is proof of human.Marc: Yeah.Okay. Yeah. Until you, until you give the bots bank accounts. Yeah, exactly. So, okay. Yeah. So there’s that. But yeah, look, look, the bot, I mean, every social media user knows this. The bot, the bot problem is a big problem. You know, the bot, the bot problem has been a big problem forever. It’s, it’s a huge problem.And it’s never really been confronted directly, like at any point, by the way. The physical world version of this is the drone, the drone problem. Um, right. And so we, we’ve known for, you know, we’ve known for 20 years now that the asymmetric threat both in Milit military and actual military conflict, but also in just like security, like, like, you know, security on the home front.The big threat is, is the cheap attack drone. Right? The, the, the cheap, the cheap suicide, you know, drone with the bomb. And we’ve known that forever. And by the way, like, you know, it’s very disconcerting how like every, you know, every office complex in the, in the co you know, in the world is like unprotected from drone attacks.Um, every, every stadium, every school, every prison. Like, like, sure e okay, we’ve known that, we’ve never done anything about what you gonna doswyx: about it. Yeah.Marc: One possibility is just leave, leave them unprotected forever and live in a world of like, asymmetric terrorism forever. Or the other is take the problem seriously and figure out the set of techniques and technologies required to, to be able to deal with that.Whether those are lasers or jammers or early warning systems, or, you know, allswyx: personal force fields,Marc: kinetic, personal for dune, uh, personal, personal force fields. Exactly. And in both cases, the, these are, these are economic asymmetries. These are economic asymmetries, right? ‘cause it’s really cheap to field a bot, but it’s very hard to tell something, a bot.It’s very cheap to field a drone. It’s very hard. It’s very expensive to defend against a drone. But you see what I’m saying is it’s, it’s, it’s the, it’s the virtual version of the problem, and it’s the physical version of the problem. Uh, the virtual version of the problem. What we, what we need quite literally is proof of human.The reason is because you’re, you’re, you’re not gonna have proof of bot. The, the, the, especially now the, the bots are too good. The, the, the bots can pass the Turing test. And if the bots can pass the Turing test, then you can’t, you can’t screen for bot. You can’t have proof of not a bot. But what you can have is you can have proof of human, you can have, you know, cryptographically validated, this is definitely a person, and this is, and then you can have cryptographically validated.This is definitely like something that a person said, yeah, this video is real. Right. Um,swyx: just to double click on, on, uh, do you think Alex Lanya with world? Yeah. Do you think he’s got it or is there an alternative?Marc: Oh, so I mean, there’s gonna be, I think there’ll be, I think many people will try, we’re one of the key, you know, participants in, in, in the World, in the World Project.I dunno that, yeah. So we’re, we’re partisans, but yeah, I, I think so we think world is exactly correct. Okay. And, and the reason is it, it has, it has to be, it, it has to be proof of human. It it has, because you can’t do proof of not bought. You have to do proof of human to do proof of human. You, you need, you need biological validation.You, you needed to start with this was actually a person, right? Because otherwise your bot signing up as fake people. Right? So you, you have to have like something, you have to have a bi. Biometric. And then you have to have cryptographic validation. And then the ability to do, to do, to do the lookup. And then, by the way, the other thing you need, which that you, you also need selective disclosure.Um, so you need to be able to do proof of human without reviewing privacy, all the underlying information. Privacy. Yeah. By the way, another thing you’re need, you’re gonna need proof of age, right? ‘cause there’s all these laws in all these different countries now around you need to be 13 or 16 or 18 or whatever to do different things.And so you’re gonna, you’re gonna need a, you know, sort of validated proof of age, um, you know, to be able to legally operate, right? And so that, that’s coming. And then you’re gonna want like, proof of credit score and, you know, proof of like, you know, a hundred other things.swyx: That’s a tricky one.Marc: It is a tricky one, but you’re gonna, you’re gonna, there, there’s no reason, like if somebody’s checking on your credit, somebody shouldn’t, I’ll give you an example.Somebody shouldn’t need to know your name in order to be able to find out whether you’re credit worthy.swyx: Right? I see. Independently verifiable pieces of information.Marc: Pieces of information, yeah. It’s like selectively disclosed. And this is the answer to the privacy problem wr large, which is, I, I only need to prove, I need to prove at that moment.So like, you’re gonna need that. And I, I think their, their, their architecture makes sense. So that needs to get solved. I think language models have tipped, the bots are now too good. Uh, and, and, and so they’re undetectable. And so as a consequence, you, we now need to go confront that problem directly. And then, and like I said, and then the other problem is we, we need to go actually confront the drone problems.The Ukraine conflict has really unlocked a lot of thinking on that. And now the, um, and now the, the, the, the, the Iran situation is also unlocking that. And so I think there’s gonna be just like this incredible explosion of, of both drone and counter drones.swyx: Our drones are better than their drones to keep it that way.Marc: Yeah. Yeah. And counter drones,Alessio: I think we can sneak in one more question. Go for it. Um, I’m trying to tie together a lot of things that you said over the years. So at the Milken Institute debate with Teal, which is amazing. Um, you talked about the lag between a new technology and kinda like the GDP, um, impact of it.Marc: Yep.Alessio: The other idea you talked about is bourgeois capitalism and how, you know, this kind of managerial class was needed because of this complexity. And I think if you bring AI into the fold, you have like much higher leverage of people. So like if you have, you know, the Musk industries, um, and you give Elon a gi, you can run a lot more things That’s right.At once.Marc: That’s right.Alessio: And then you have the social contract. And I know you reviewed a clip of Sam ing, um, we’re rethinking the whole thing, and you’re like, absolutely not. Yes.Marc: Under,Alessio: and I wa I was in an event with Sam last night, uh, and he actually said in the last couple weeks it felt like now people are taking that seriously.Yeah. So I’m just curious like how you’re seeing the structure of organization changing, especially when you invest in early stage companies and, um, yeah, just like how the impact of. Work structure and, uh, all of that is playing out. Yeah.Marc: So there’s a whole bunch of, there’s a whole bunch of topics. I know, yeah.We, we could spend, and by the way, we’d be happy to spend more time, but we could, we could spend more time on all that. So just for people who haven’t followed this, so the, this, this, this term managerial comes from this thinker in the 20th century, James Burnham, who, um, just one of the great kind of 20th century political thinkers, um, societal thinkers.And he sort of said a as, and he was writing in like the 1940s, 1950s. Um, and he said kind of the, the whole history, capitalism until that point had been in two phases. Number one had been what he called bourgeois capitalism, which was think about as like name on the door, like Ford Motor Company. ‘cause Henry Ford runs the company.Um, and Henry, it’s like a DIC dictatorial model. And Henry Ford just like tells everybody what to do. And he said the problem with bourgeois capitalism is it doesn’t scale. ‘cause Henry Ford can only tell so many people to do so many things. And then he runs at a time in the day. And so, um, he said the second phase of capitalism was what he called managerial capitalism, which was the creation of a professional class of managers, um, that are trained not to be like.Car experts or to be whatever experts in any particular field, but are trained to be experts in management. And then that led to, you know, the importance of like Harvard business, you know, business schools and management consulting firms and all these things. And then you look at every big company today, and like most of the executives at most of the Fortune 500 companies are not domain experts in whatever the company does.And they’re certainly not the founders of those, but they’re professional managers. And in fact, in the course of their careers, they’ll probably manage many different kinds of businesses. They’ll rotate around and they might work in healthcare for a while and then work in financial services and then go work in something else, you know, come work in tech.And what Burnham said is he said that transition is absolutely required because the, the, the, the problem with bourgeois capitalism is, is it doesn’t scale. Henry Ford doesn’t scale. And so if you’re gonna run capitalist enterprises that are gonna have millions to billions of customers, um, you’re gonna need to, you’re, they’re gonna be operating a level of scale and complexity that’s gonna require this professional management class.And he said, look, the, the professional management class has its downsides. Like they’re not necessarily experts at doing the thing. They’re not as inventive, you know, they’re not gonna create the next breakthrough thing. But he is like, whether you think that’s good or bad or whatever is what’s gonna be required.And basically that’s what happened. Right. And so he wrote that book originally in like 1940, you know, over the course of the next 50 years, basically. Managerialism. Well, I mean, today, up till today, managerial managerialism basically took over everything. Mm-hmm. And you know, what I’m describing is basically how all big companies run and how all governments run and how are large scale nonprofits run and kind of everything, you know, everything runs basically what, what, what Venture Capital does is we basically are a rump, uh, sort of protest movement to that.To try to find the next Henry Ford or, or just to say El Elon Musk or, or the next, or the next Elon Musk or the next Steve Jobs, or the next Bill Gays. The next Mark Zuckerberg. And so we, we, we, we start these companies in, in the old model, right? We, we, we start them out as, as, as, as in the Henry Ford model.And so we start them out with a founder or a, or a, or a founder with, with colleagues. But you know, there’s the a founder, CEO, um, and then we basically bet that we basically bet that the startup is going to be able to do things, specifically innovate in ways that the big incumbents in that industry are not gonna be able to do.And so it’s a bet that by, basically by relighting this sort of name on the door, you know, kind of thing. Mm-hmm. This new innovative thing with like a king monarchical, uh, uh, political structure, um, that they’re gonna be able to innovate in a way that the incumbent is not going to be able to because the incumbent is, is being run by managers.Right. And, and, and, and by the way, and of course venture being what it is, sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn’t. But we’re, we’re constantly doing that, but I’ve always viewed it my entire life as like, we’re like raging against the dying of the light. Mm-hmm. Like we’re, we’re, we’re, we’re sort of constantly trying to fight off managerialism, just basically swamping everything and everything.Getting basically boring and gray and dumb and old. Right. And we’re trying to keep some level of energy vitality in the system. AI is the thing that would lead you to think, wow, maybe there’s a third model.Alessio: Mm-hmm.Marc: Right? And, and maybe may and way to think about it would be, maybe it’s a combination of the two, maybe the new Henry Ford or the new Elon or the new Steve Jobs plus ai, right.Is the best of both. Right. Because it’s, it’s, it’s sort of the spark of genius of the name on the door model, the Henry Ford model. But then it’s give that person AI superpowers to do all the managerial stuff and let the boss draw the managerial stuff. That may be the actual secret formula. And we’ve never even known that we wanted this because we never even thought it was a possibility.But I mean, you know, this, what is the thing that these bots are really good, they’re really good at doing paperwork. Like they’re really good at filling out forms, right? Like they’re really good at writing reports, they’re really good at reading, they’re really good at doing all the managerial work. Like they’re amazing at it.And so, yeah, so I, I think, I think the, I a hundred percent, I think the answer, the answer very well might be to get the best, best of both worlds by doing this. And then the challenge is gonna be twofold. The challenge is gonna be for the innovators to really figure out how to leverage AI actually do this.Right? Um, and, and then, and then the, the other challenge is gonna be for the, for the incumbents that are managerial, to figure out like, okay, what does that mean? ‘cause now they’re gonna, they’re, they’re gonna be facing a different kind of insurgent competitor that has a different set of capabilities than they’re used to.And so th the, this really I think is gonna force a lot of big companies to kind of figure out innovation. EE either I say figure out innovation or die trying.Alessio: Do you feel like that structure accelerates the impact on the actual GDPN economy? If you look at Space Act? Yes. The growth is like so fast. Yeah.And like, instead of having these companies kind of like Peter out in growth and impact, they can kind of like keep going if not accelerating.Marc: Yeah, that’s for sure. The hope, um, the, the, the challenge and, and you know, and, and look, the AI utopian view is of course, of course. And, and, and that’s gonna be the future of the economy.And it’s gonna grow 10 x and a hundred x and a thousand x. And we’re entering this regime of like much higher economic growth forever and consumer cornucopia of everything. And it’s, it’s gonna be great. And I, and, and I hope that’s true. I hope that’s, that’s like the u you know, that’s the current kind of utopian vision.I hope that’s true. The problem is, it goes back again. The real world is really messy. Um, and I’ll give you an example of how the real world is really messy. It requires 900 hours of professional certification training to become a hairdresser in the state of California. Um, so it’s like 35% of the economy, something like that.You have to get some sort of professional certification to do the job, which is to say that the, the professions are all cartels, right? Yeah. And so you have to get licensed as a doctor. You have to get licensed as a lawyer, you have to get licensed as a. You have to get into a union. Mm-hmm. Um, by the way, to, to work for the government, you need to be, you, you have both civil service protections and you have public sector unions.You have two layers of insulation, uh, against ever getting fired for anything or anything. Anything ever changing. I’ll give you another example. The the dock work. The dock workers one on strike a couple years ago. Mm-hmm. ‘cause they, you know, robotics, you know, if, if you go look at a modern dock, like in Asia, it’s all robots.If you go to American dock, it’s like all still guys, dragon, dragon stuff, by by hand, the dock works. Goes on a strike. It turns out there are 25,000 dock workers working on, on, on, on Docs in America. It turns out they have incredible political power. Mm-hmm. Because it’s a, it’s, it’s one of these un unified blocks of things.They won their strike and so they got commitments from the dock owners to not implement more automation. We learned a couple things in that. So number one, we learned that even a union as small as 25,000 people still has like tremendous political stroke. We also learned that they, it actually turns out the Dock Workers Union has 50,000 people in it.‘cause there’s 20, they have 25,000 people working in the docks. They have 25,000 people during full paycheck sitting at home from prior union agreements. Oh myswyx: God.Marc: From prior union agreements. I’ll give you another great example. There are government agencies, there are federal government agencies where the employees right of have civil service protections and there are in public sector unions.There are entire federal government agencies that struck new collective bargaining agreements during COVID, where not only are they have their jobs guaranteed in perpetuity, but they only have to report to work in an office one day per month. And so there are entire office buildings in Washington DC that are empty 29 outta 30 days of the year that are still operating and are still, we’re all still paying for it.20 and say, and then what they do, it turns out what the employees do is they’re very, they’re very smart in, in, in this way. And so they figure out, they come in on the last day of a month and the first day of the next month. And so and so, they’re, so, they’re in there, they’re in the office two days per 60 days, which means these buildings are empty for 58 days at a time.And you see what I’m, you see where I’m heading with this? Like this is like locked in, right? This is like locked in in a way that has nothing to do with like, and people say capitalist, it’s like anticapitalistic. It’s like, it’s, it’s basically it’s restrictions on trade, it’s restrictions on the ability to like change the workforce.And so, so much of our economy is, is, you know, the, the, I I’m, I’m describing the entire healthcare system. I’m describing the entire legal profession. I’m describing the entire housing industry. I’m describing the entire education system, right? K through 12 schools in the United States. They’re a literal government monopoly.How are we gonna apply AI and education? The answer is we’re not, because it’s a literal government monopoly, it is never going to change the end. And there is nothing to do, by the way, you can create an entirely new school system. Like that’s the one thing you can do, is you can do what Alpha School’s doing.You can create an entirely new school system. Other than that, you’re not gonna go in and change what’s happening in the American classroom, like K through 12. There’s no chance the teachers are 100% opposed to it. It’s a hundred percent not gonna happen. So, so you see what I’m saying is like there’s this like massive slippage that’s gonna take place.Both the AI utopians and the AI dors are far too optimistic.swyx: Right.Marc: You see what I’m saying? Be because they believe that because the technology makes something possible that 8 billion people all of a sudden are gonna change how they behave. And it’s just like, nope. So much of how the existing economy works.Mm-hmm. It’s just, it. It’s just like wired in. And so we’re gonna be lucky as a society, we’re gonna be lucky if AI adoption happens quickly. Right. Because if it doesn’t, what we’re just gonna have is stagnation.Alessio: Awesome. Mark. I know you gotta run.swyx: Yeah. We all know or still welcome. But, uh, it was such a pleasure talking to you.Uh, we’re truly living in the age of science fiction coming to real life.Marc: Yes. Yes. Could not be more exciting. Yeah. Really. Thank you, mark. You guys awesome.swyx: Thank That’s it.Marc: Good. Thank you. That’s it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Moonlake: Causal World Models should be Multimodal, Interactive, and Efficient — with Chris Manning and Fan-yun Sun 02.04.2026 1h 6min

  We’ve been on a bit of a mini World Models series over the last quarter: from introducing the topic with Yi Tay, to exploring Marble with World Labs’ Fei-Fei Li and Justin Johnson, to previewing World Models learned from massive gaming datasets with General Intuition’s Pim de Witte (who has now written down their approach to World Models with Not Boring), to discussing the Cosmos World Model with with Andrew White of Edison Scientific on our new Science pod, to writing up our own theses on Adversarial World Models. Meanwhile Nvidia, Waymo and Tesla have published their own approaches, Google has released Genie 3, and Yann LeCun has raised $1B for AMI and published LeWorldModel.Today’s guests have a radically different approach to World Modeling to every player we just mentioned — while Genie 3 is impressive, its many flaws demonstrate the issues with their approach - terrain clipping, noninteractivity (single player, no physics/no objects other than the player move), and maximum of 60 second immersion. Moonlake AI (inspired by the Dreamworks logo) is the diametric opposite - immediately multiplayer, incredibly interactive, indefinite lifetime, capable of MANY different kinds of world models by simulating environments, predicting outcomes, and planning over long horizons. This is enabled by bootstrapping from game engines and training custom agents: In Towards Efficient World Models, Chris Manning and Ian Goodfellow join Fan-Yun in explaining why their approach to efficiency with structure and casuality instead of just blind scaling is sorely needed:SOTA models still show physical or spatial understanding glitches, such as solid objects floating in mid-air or moving “inside” other solid objects.If the goal is to plan for the next action, how often is a high-resolution pixel view necessary for modeling the world? Our bet is that there is a disproportionately large share of economically valuable tasks where such detail is not required. After all, humans with a wide variety of sensory limitations have little difficulty doing almost everything in the world. Furthermore, for a large number of purposes, describing a scene or a situation in a few words of language (“the car’s tires squealed as it cornered sharply”) is sufficient for understanding and planning.Experiments also show that humans only partially process visual input in a top-down, task-directed way, often making use of abstracted object-level modeling. In almost all cases, partial representations combined with semantic understanding are sufficient.…If the goal is to facilitate the understanding of causality in multimodal environments, then the world model—whether it is used in the virtual world or the physical world—must prioritize properties such as spatial and physical state consistency maintained over long time periods, and an ability to evolve the world that accurately reflects the consequences of actions. That’s what Moonlake is building.Game engines are the right starting point abstraction to efficiently extract causal relationships, and building the interfaces and community (including their new $30,000 Creator Cup) to kickstart the flywheel of actions-to-observations.We were fortunate enough to attend their sessions at GDC 2026 (the Mecca of Game Devs), and were impressed by the huge variety and flexibility of the worlds people were building with Moonlake’s tools already! Live videos on the pod.Full Video Pod on YouTube!Timestamps00:00 Benchmarking Gets Hard00:47 Meet Moonlake Founders01:26 Why Build World Models03:12 Structure Not Just Scale05:37 Defining Action Conditioned Worlds07:32 Abstraction Versus Bitter Lesson14:39 Language Versus JEPA Debate20:27 Reasoning Traces And Rendering Layer37:00 Gameplay Over Graphics38:02 Fiction Rules And World Tweaks39:15 Code Engines Beat Learned Priors41:10 Diffusion Scaling Limits43:23 Symbolic Versus Diffusion Boundary46:14 Platform Vision Beyond Games50:24 Spatial Audio And Multimodal Latents54:23 NLP Roots Hiring And Moon Lake NameTranscript[00:00:00] Cold Open[00:00:00] Chris Manning: Think this whole space is extremely difficult as things are emerging now. And I mean, it’s not only for world models, I think it’s for everything including text-based models, right? ‘cause in the early days it seemed very easy to have good benchmarks ‘cause we could do things like question answering benchmarks.[00:00:20] But these days so much of what people are wanting to do is nothing like that, right? You’re wanting to get some recommendations about which backpack would be best for you for your trip in Europe next month. It’s not so easy to come up with a benchmark, and it’s the same problem with these world models.[00:00:41] Meet the Founders[00:00:41] swyx: Okay. We’re back in the studio with Moon Lake’s, two leads. I, I guess there’s other founders as well, but, sun and Chris Manning. Welcome to the studio.[00:00:54] Fan-yun Sun: Thanks. Thanks, Chris. Thanks for having us.[00:00:56] swyx: You’ve got, you guys have, come burst onto the scene with a really refreshing [00:01:00] new take of mold models.[00:01:01] I would just want to, I guess ask how you, the two of you came together. Chris, you’re a legend in NLP and just AI in, in, in general. You’re, you’re his grad student, I guess[00:01:10] Fan-yun Sun: Actually my co-founder.[00:01:11] swyx: Oh, yeah.[00:01:12] Fan-yun Sun: I should give a lot of credit to my co-founder, Sharon. Yeah. She was, she was actually working with Professor Fe Androgyn and then she ended up working with, Ron and Chris Manning here.[00:01:22] And then, so I got connected through to Chris initially, actually through my co-founder,[00:01:26] What is Moon Lake?[00:01:26] swyx: what is Moon Lake? What, what is, actually, I’m also very curious about the name, but like why going into world models?[00:01:33] Fan-yun Sun: So I was working a lot. With actually Nvidia research during my PhD years on essentially generating interactive worlds to train reinforcement learning agents or embody EA agents.[00:01:44] And then there’s two observations. One in academia and one in industry. An industry like folks at Nvidia are actually paying a lot of dollars to purchase these types of interactive worlds, whether it’s for the sake of evaluation or training the robots, or policies or models. And [00:02:00] then, in academia, same thing is happening.[00:02:02] And more specifically, when I was actually working with Nvidia on the synthetic data foundation model training project, we were actually generating a lot of these synthetic data and showing that, hey, you can actually, these synthetic data are actually as useful as real world data when it comes to multimodal pre-training.[00:02:16] But then, like I said, there’s a lot of dollars being paid out to like external vendors or, or like. Other folks to manually curate these types of data. It was very clear to us that, okay, on our way to, let’s call it embody general intelligence models need to learn the consequences behind their actions, which means that they need interactive data and the demand for those types of data are growing exponentially.[00:02:38] But everybody’s sort of thinking about it from a pure, say, video generation perspective or something else. But we feel like the true actually opportunity is actually building reasoning models that can do these things, like how humans do these things today. So that’s a little bit on the genesis of Moon Lake, and I think the reason I got into world models was partly.[00:02:59] A philosophical [00:03:00] take of the on the world where I like, believe the simulation theory and stuff like that. But on the other, on the other hand, it’s really just like, oh, like there’s an opportunity there that I feel like nobody’s doing it the way I think should be done.[00:03:10] Structure, Not Scale: The Vision[00:03:10] Chris Manning: I can say a little bit about that.[00:03:12] Yeah. So of the overall goal is the pursuit of artificial intelligence and most of my career has been doing that in the language space and that’s been just extremely productive. As we all know, the story of the last few years, I don’t have to tell about how much we’ve achieved with large language models, but, uh.[00:03:31] Although they have been extremely effective for ramping language and general intelligence, it’s clearly not the whole world. There’s this multimodal world of vision, sound, taste that you’d like to be dealing with more than just, language. And then the question is how to do it. And despite, a huge investment in the computer vision space, right, as the research field computer [00:04:00] vision has been for decades, far, far larger than the language space, actually.[00:04:05] I think it’s fair. Say that, vision, understanding sort of stalled out, right? You got to object recognition and then progress just wasn’t being made right? If you look at any of these, vision language models, it’s the language that’s doing 90% of the work and the vision barely works. And so there’s really an interesting research question as to why that is and at heart, the ideas behind Moon Lake are an attempt to answer that, believing that there can be a really rich connection between a more symbolic layer of abstracted understanding of visual domains, which aren’t in the mainstream vision models, which are still trying to operate on the surface level of pixels.[00:04:50] swyx: I think one of your blog posts, you put it as structure, not scale. Is that, a general thesis?[00:04:57] Chris Manning: Yeah. Well, scale is good too.[00:04:58] swyx: Yeah. Scale is good. Too[00:04:59] lot,[00:04:59] Chris Manning: [00:05:00] lots of data is good as well and scale, but nevertheless, you want the structure Yeah. To be able to much more efficiently learn.[00:05:07] swyx: Yeah. The other thing I really liked also is you put out an example of what your kind of reasoning traces look like.[00:05:12] Right. Which you would distill is the word that comes to mind. I don’t even think that’s a good, good description, but it would involve, for example, geometry, physics, affordances, symbolic logic, perceptual mappings, and what, what have you. But like that, that is the kind of example that involves, let’s call it spatial reasoning, role model reasoning as as compared to normal LM reasoning.[00:05:35] Yeah.[00:05:36] Defining World Models vs Video Generation[00:05:36] Vibhu: But also like taking it a step back. So how do you guys define world models? A lot of people see okay, you can do diffusion, you can do video generation. But, you guys put out quite a few blog posts. You put out a essay recently, we can even pull it up about efficient world models. You have a pretty like structural definition here, but for the general audience that don’t super follow the space, right.[00:05:55] What’s, what’s the difference in what we see from like a video generation model to [00:06:00] a world gen A simulator? How do you kind of paint that last[00:06:02] Chris Manning: year? Yeah, so I think this is actually a little bit subtle because, people look at these amazing generative AI video models, SAWA VO three, one of these things, and they think Genie, they think, oh, this is amazing.[00:06:17] This is we’ve solved understanding the world because you can produce these generative AI videos, but. The reality is that although the visuals do look fantastic, those visuals actually are accompanied by an understanding of the 3D world, understanding how objects can move, what the consequences of different actions are, and that’s what’s really needed for spatial intelligence.[00:06:49] So I mean, a term we sometimes use is that you need action condition, world models. That you only actually have a world model if you can predict, [00:07:00] given some action is taken, what is going to change in the world because of it. And in particular, that becomes hard over longer time scales. So if you’re simply, trying to.[00:07:12] Predict the next video frame. That’s not so difficult. But what you actually want to do is understand the consequences, likely consequences of actions minutes into the future. And to do that, you actually much more of an abstracted semantic model of the world.[00:07:32] The Bitter Lesson & Data Abstraction[00:07:32] swyx: Yeah, the question comes where you want to have more structure than is available in just predicting the next token.[00:07:41] And typically, well, let’s, let’s call it the experience of the last five years has been that is just washed away by scale, right? So what is the right middle ground here that, you don’t ignore the bitter lesson, but also you. Can be more efficient than what we’re doing today.[00:07:57] Chris Manning: One possibility [00:08:00] is, look, if we just collect masses and masses and masses and masses of video data, this problem will be solved.[00:08:11] Under certain assumptions that could be true, but there are sort of multiple avenues in which it could not be true. The first is what’s really essential is understanding the, the consequences of actions producing an action conditioned world model. And if you are simply, collecting observational video data, which is the easy stuff to collect, when you’re sort of mining online videos, you don’t actually.[00:08:41] Know the actions that are being taken to see how the video is changing. And so if you are never collecting directly actions and you are having to try and infer them from what happened in the observed video, that’s not impossible. But it’s very [00:09:00] hard and it’s not really established that you can get that to work at any scale yet.[00:09:05] And so there’s a lot of premium on collecting action condition video data, which is part of why there’s been a lot of interest in using simulation so that you can be collecting data where you do know the actions, which isn’t quite limited supply, but there’s also in the limit of as much data as you could possibly have.[00:09:28] Maybe the problem is eventually solvable, but. Even though we collect huge amounts of text data is always at a great level of abstraction, right? Language is a human designed, abstracted representation where there’s meaning in each token and it’s representing and abstraction of the world, right?[00:09:51] As soon as you are describing someone as a professor, and as soon as you are saying that they’re condescending, right? These are very [00:10:00] abstracted descriptions of the world. It’s not at what you’re observing as pixel level, and to get to that kind of degree of abstraction, starting from pixels is orders and magnitude of extra data and processing.[00:10:14] And so, although, we absolutely want to exploit, get as much data as possible, use the bitter lesson. Nevertheless, if there are ways in which you can work with five orders of magnitude less data than people working purely from pixels, you’re gonna be able to make a lot more progress, a lot more quickly.[00:10:34] And that’s the bet here. And so you could just say that’s only wanting to be able to, do it more efficiently, do it more quickly, do it more cheaply. But I think it’s actually more than that, I think. One should be making the analogy to how human beings work at one level. You know? Yes, we have these high [00:11:00] resolution eyes and we can look and see a scene like a video, but all of the evidence from neuroscience and psychology is that most of what comes into people’s eyes is never processed.[00:11:13] Right. That you are doing fairly fine ated processing of exactly what you’re focusing on. But as soon as it’s away from that of yeah, there’s another guy over there that you’ve sort of only processing top down this very abstracted semantic description of the world around you. And so, that’s what human beings are doing.[00:11:33] They’re working with semantic abstractions and so. I think it is just the right representation. ‘cause we also have other goals we want to be able to do, real time worlds. So that means there’s a limit to how much processing you can do and we want to do long-term planning and consistency. And again, that favors abstraction.[00:11:55] I mean, I guess there was actually a recent. Blog posts that [00:12:00] came out from our Friends of physical intelligence and, they were sort of heading in the same direction they were saying Oh, to the pay[00:12:06] swyx: pay model.[00:12:07] Chris Manning: Yeah. Yeah. To maintain a long term memory of what’s happening in the world. So we can, do longer term we actually storing text of what is, been happening in the world.[00:12:19] Right. It is not such a successful strategy of trying to keep it all at a pixel level.[00:12:24] Vibhu: And yeah, I mean, you can see it in video models like that Temporal consistency. We’re at a scale of train on, all the video data we have. We have it for maybe 30 seconds, a few minutes. That’s not the same as a game state played for half an hour.[00:12:37] Right. I thought you guys break it down pretty well. You have a, you have a blog post about. Building multimodal worlds with an agent. I dunno if you guys wanna talk about this. This is one of the things I read, I[00:12:48] swyx: thought, yeah, it’s the thing I talked about with the reasoning chain. Yeah.[00:12:51] Vibhu: So there’s like different phases to this.[00:12:53] It seems like it’s more of an agent, a scaffold, very different approach than just, type in a prompt and you, you don’t have the same consistency. [00:13:00] It also, like, for people that are listening, I, I would highly recommend reading it. It breaks down the problem in a different light, right?[00:13:06] So like, what do you need to consider when you’re talking about video, like world game models, right? How would, what do you need to consider? What are the factors? What are the elements? What’s the state? So I don’t know if you guys have stuff to talk about for this one.[00:13:19] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah. Actually, I wanted to add on a little bit Yeah.[00:13:22] On our previous point, which is just like, change topics so quickly. I, I do feel like sometimes people confuse like, oh, like we’re taking an an, an method with abstraction. That means they don’t believe in bitter lesson. Like that’s just false, right? Like we are believed is a bitter lesson. But then I feel like the question that we always discuss is like, what is the right abstraction level today?[00:13:42] The analogy I like to make is like, let’s just say we can encode and decode. Represent all of images, videos, audio and bytes. Then the most bitter lesson approached is to train a next byte prediction model as opposed to the next token prediction model where it’s just like, okay, it’s natively multimodal, can just, but it’s like, yeah, like [00:14:00] to, to Chris’s point, it’s like the scale and computing you need to achieve that.[00:14:03] So that’s why we always come back to like, okay, what is the most efficient way to do it? And reasoning models to the point of this blog post is a showcase of like, Hey, we’re actually just like reasoning about the world and reasoning about. The aspects of the world that CAGR that matter for me to learn what I want to learn from this role model.[00:14:21] swyx: Yeah, it’s like you’re improving the en encoder of whatever you’re, trying to model. And like a better representation would just represent the important things in less space. Yeah. Which would just be more efficient.[00:14:33] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah.[00:14:34] swyx: So yeah, I, I, I fully agree that it is not, antagonistic to, bitter lesson.[00:14:38] I do wanna wanna mention one more thing. Is there any philosophical differences with the JPA stuff that, Yun is working on? I gotta go there. You, you, you, you’re, you’re imagining like some latent abstraction. I’m like, okay, fine. Let’s, let’s talk about it, right? Like it’s an elephant in the room.[00:14:52] Chris Manning: Yeah.[00:14:53] JEPA & Philosophical Differences with LeCun[00:14:53] Chris Manning: There are philosophical differences. Jan Lacoon is a dear friend of mine, but. [00:15:00] He has never appreciated the power of language in particular, or symbolic representations in general. Yarn is a very visual thinker. He always wants to claim that he thinks visually and there are no words, symbols, or math in his head.[00:15:21] Maybe that’s true of yarn. It’s certainly not the way I think. Um. But at any rate, the world according to yarn is the basic stuff of the, the world and of intelligence is visual and language is just. This low bit rate communication mechanism between humans and it doesn’t have much other utility and it’s far inferior to the high bit rate video, that comes into your eyes.[00:15:53] And I think he’s fundamentally missing a number of important things [00:16:00] there. Think of this evolutionary argument looking at animals, right? That the closest analogies, the things with chimps, right? So chimpanzees, have fairly similar brains to human beings. They have great vision systems, they have great memory systems.[00:16:18] They’ve got, better memory than we do of short term memories. They can plan, they can build primitive tools that, humans. Massively ahead in what we understand about the world, what we can plan, what we can build. And essentially what took off for us was that humans managed to develop language and that gave a symbolic knowledge, representation, and reasoning level, which just, okay if this sort of vaulting of what could be done with the intelligence in brains.[00:16:59] So the [00:17:00] philosopher Dan de refers to language as a cognitive tool and argues that, humans unique among the creatures in the world have managed to build their own cognitive tools and language is the famous first example. But other things like, mathematics and programming languages are also cognitive tools.[00:17:21] They give you an ability to. Think in abstractions, in extended causal reasoning chains. And that allows you to do much more. And we use that for spatial representation and intelligence and planning and gameplay as well. So we believe, and this is, underlying the specific technologies that Moon Lake is making, that symbolic representations are powerful.[00:17:50] And you want to use that in your understanding of the visual world when you want a causal understanding, when you want to maintain long-term [00:18:00] consistency and prediction. And as I understand it, that’s just not in ya Koon’s worldview. So I think that’s the fundamental philosophical difference. Then there’s the specific model.[00:18:11] He’s been advancing jpa, that’s a reasonable. Research bed is a direction as to, to head for building out a model of the visual world. To my mind, it’s sort of one reasonable research bed. It’s not really established. It’s the best one that everyone should be following,[00:18:32] swyx: at least developed at scale, at Meta.[00:18:34] But it’s not just vision, right? Like, I mean, JPA is a, just joint admitting prediction can be applied to anything really. And people have done it. The argument is that there is a latent representation or that is probably more. Suited to the task, then why not let machines do it for us instead of predefining it at all?[00:18:50] And isn’t something like a JPA shaped thing the right answer? And if not, why not?[00:18:55] Chris Manning: So I think there’s a part of jpa that’s right, which is [00:19:00] you do want to have a joint. Embedding that gives you a consistent model of the world. And Jan’s argument is you can never get that from auto aggressive language models ‘cause they’re sort of left to right churning out one token at a time.[00:19:22] I guess this is where we’re the research arguments of the field, I’m not actually convinced that’s right. ‘cause although the token production is this auto aggressive, process that’s heading, left to right, I guess don’t have to be left to right. But anyway, in sequence of tokens we could have right to left Arabic.[00:19:40] But although that’s true, all of the weights of the model that are internal to the transformer, they are a joint model of the model’s understanding of the world. And so I think you can think of the weights of the model as a form of. Joint representation, [00:20:00] and therefore it is plausible to think that could be the basis of a world model, which avoids, ya’s objections.[00:20:10] swyx: I think I follow, and obviously that would touch on what Moon Lake eventually ends up doing as well. Right. Like, which it’s hard to tell because you put out the end results, but we don’t know the inputs that go into it. So it’s, it’s, that’s something that we have to figure out over time.[00:20:25] Vibhu: Yeah. I mean, I guess this kind of breaks down some of the outputs. Do you wanna walk us through it?[00:20:31] Reasoning Traces & Interactive Worlds[00:20:31] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah. So this, this really just walks us through the reasoning traces of like, okay. So that just say, if we wanna build a world in this context, it’s really just a game demo that, that shows the, the variety of interactions that this world model can build.[00:20:45] And yeah, it’s really just a reasoning traces of like, okay it prompted to create a bowling game. Like how did it achieve what you saw? That level of causality, interaction and consistency, right? So yeah, this is almost just like a, an example of [00:21:00] like a reasoning traces. Very[00:21:01] swyx: detailed.[00:21:01] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah.[00:21:01] Vibhu: Very, very detailed.[00:21:02] You gotta you don’t even realize it, right? Like when a video is generated, what happens when a ball strikes a pin, right? So first, like you, there’s audio in that, like audio triggers happens, score increments, the world changes. Like pins have to start dropping. There’s a timer that goes on. It’s just like very similar to how now we’re used to reasoning for language models.[00:21:20] There’s a whole state of what happens. So geometry, physics, all this stuff. And then yeah, there’s kind of that single prompt. So asset, ation all this stuff. It’s like a, it’s a nice view to see what’s going on.[00:21:32] swyx: I think Sun is also too polite to point out that, both like Google’s genie, demos as well as world Labs is marble, do not have interactive worlds.[00:21:41] Fan-yun Sun: That’s the benefit of having a reasoning model, right? Like, because you can, you can say, oh, like maybe in this particular context, I want to learn how to bowl. And then you can say, okay, then what is it important when it comes to learning how to bowl? Okay, maybe it’s like I need to understand the, the basic of like, physics and I want to throw it over [00:22:00] them.[00:22:00] I wanna know that when I, when it resets it’s a new game. So I know that yeah, basically, you know to pick up the ball, you know that ball’s gonna cause the pins to fall down. You know that what’s important to this particular bowling game is to score and you know that the score corresponds to the number of pins that fell down.[00:22:19] So it’s just like, if it’s a model that sort of knows what it. Looks like, knows what a bowling game looks like, but doesn’t actually allows you to practice over and over again and to understand that, oh, like what it takes to actually get a high score. Then it sort of doesn’t actually allow you to learn what you set out to learn within the world model.[00:22:38] And I think this is really just one example of showing like the advantages of the approach that we’re taking over most the, let’s call it the zeitgeist, is today, when people talk about clinical role models,[00:22:51] Chris Manning: right? So it sort of seems like the question to ask when there’s a world model is.[00:22:58] Can I not [00:23:00] only just wander around the world and look at the beautiful graphics, can I interact with the objects in the world and see the right consequences of actions?[00:23:11] Vibhu: And you also understand what the consequences would be if you do something right. So it’s not just like, okay, there’s one thing if I pick it up, something will happen.[00:23:19] But, there’s 50 options and I know I can expect, I can infer what would happen if I do any of them. Right. So very different when you can actually see it play around with it.[00:23:28] swyx: There,[00:23:28] Beyond Unity: Cognitive Tools for World Building[00:23:31] swyx: there’s two cheeky elements of that. I mean, the, the, the I guess, less ambitious one is, let’s really establish for listeners, why is this fundamentally different than writing Unity code, right?[00:23:40] Like just creating a model to translate a prompt into Unity code[00:23:44] Fan-yun Sun: so there is an underlying physics engine. Yeah. In that sense, there’s some overlapping things to Unity, but the way we think about it is like physics engine. Tools or code are cognitive tools like borrowing Chris’s term, right? Like tools [00:24:00] that the model can employ as means to an end.[00:24:04] So today maybe you say, okay, in this particular context we care about physics, we care about the long-term causality consequences. Then yes, we deploy it, employ physics engine, and then maybe tomorrow we say, okay, we’re we’re training that. Just say drones where we only care about really fluid dynamics and the visual aspect of the world.[00:24:25] Then, then yeah, maybe we don’t actually, the model actually doesn’t have to use a physics engine. Or maybe it employs other types of representation or physics engine to achieve the task. So yes, writing code for Unity is sort of similar to a tool that our A model can employ, but our goal is for a model to take a representation conditioned reasoning.[00:24:46] Approach or process.[00:24:47] swyx: Yeah,[00:24:47] Fan-yun Sun: internally.[00:24:48] swyx: Yeah. Using these things as just like general two calls. Right. Which I think is very interesting. The other more ambitious one is, some kind of recursive element where it becomes multiplayer, right? Like here, there’s a single player element, you’re not [00:25:00] modeling any other people involved.[00:25:01] And that is a whole other thing.[00:25:04] Fan-yun Sun: But in fact, we can really do multiplayers. Oh yeah, okay. I haven’t seen any double situations. So just actually just like prompt our, our model to say, Hey, like configure to multiplayer. Then it’ll do like this. You’ll be able to configure multiplayer[00:25:16] swyx: great[00:25:17] Fan-yun Sun: persistency database for you.[00:25:18] Easy. Yeah.[00:25:19] Vibhu: So what, what are like some of the current limitations in where we’re at? So there’s one approach of like, okay, scale up video predictors. Obviously there’s data issues. With approaches like this, is it data constraints? What are like the next steps? Is it real time? Like, so there’s one side of, write an agent to write Unity code, but okay, I want to be streaming a game real time.[00:25:38] I want to have characters being also like agent, but where, where do we kinda see this scaling up? Right?[00:25:44] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah, there’s definitely a data constraint. Like the more data, the, the better. This reasoning model can almost basically act as humans to like operate a variety of tools and softwares to build whatever’s necessary.[00:25:57] And then there’s a sort [00:26:00] of fidelity constraint, which we’re actually solving with another model, which we can talk about later. But it’s like, it’s not as easy to get to photorealism with the approach that we’re taking. But we think there are better solutions to that, which is we can dive into later.[00:26:14] Later.[00:26:15] Vibhu: The one one thing you note here is it’s a diffusion model, right? So there’s, there’s a few approaches, diffusion caution, splatting, yeah, so Ry diffusion model, you guys wanna[00:26:25] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah.[00:26:25] Vibhu: Introduce,[00:26:26] Fan-yun Sun: yeah, totally.[00:26:26] Rie: Neural Rendering & Skins for Worlds[00:26:26] Fan-yun Sun: So within our world modeling framework, we think there are two models that we train, right?[00:26:31] Like, there’s the multimodal reasoning model that we just talked about that essentially handles. Mainly the, the causality, the persistency and logic determinism of the world. And then RY is our bet on saying, okay, like while all those model, can take care of all these things that we just talked about, it’s limitations compared to existing, say, video models, is that it doesn’t have as high of a pixel [00:27:00] ality right off the gate, right?[00:27:02] And EE is to say, Hey, we can actually take whatever persistent representation that we generate with our multimodal reasoning model and learn to restyle it into photo photorealistic styles or arbitrary styles you want. So this model is almost to say, Hey, I’m going to respect the persistency and interactivity of the world that you created, but my only job is to make sure that its pixel distribution is close to what we want.[00:27:29] Vibhu: Yeah.[00:27:30] swyx: Great example right there. You kept the KL divergence.[00:27:33] Fan-yun Sun: Oh. Where,[00:27:34] swyx: no, no. I mean this, this is a, a classic like, how you don’t stray too far from the source material as you, you kept the kl, which is Oh yeah. Kind of cool. Yeah.[00:27:43] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah.[00:27:44] swyx: I mean, and the[00:27:44] Chris Manning: difference is, and I mean sun was pointing at this, where sort of saying it’s in one way a more difficult path, but a better path that, typically the diffusion models are producing the whole scene and it looks lovely, [00:28:00] but there isn’t spatial understanding behind it, which is allowing for the real time graphics gameplay, the spatial intelligence, understanding the consequences of worlds where this is, taking a path where it is assuming an abstracted semantic model of the world’s state.[00:28:20] And then the diffusion model is then being used on top of that to produce the high quality graphics.[00:28:27] swyx: Is there an intended practical, or business use for this, or is it like a, like a demonstration of capabilities?[00:28:34] Fan-yun Sun: We actually believe that this is gonna be the next paradigm of rendering. So it’s gonna replace how ra raizer, it’s gonna replace DLSS today because it not only has these pixel prior that’s learned from the world such that you can literally play any game in photo realistic styles, which is a lot of people’s desire when they do GTA, right?[00:28:51] Like,[00:28:51] Vibhu: all the mods, all the people adding perfect lighting and all this.[00:28:54] swyx: So[00:28:54] Fan-yun Sun: skins[00:28:55] swyx: for worlds, let’s call it[00:28:56] Fan-yun Sun: skins, let’s call it skin for worlds. I,[00:28:58] Vibhu: it’s also like, you can call it skin, you can call it [00:29:00] customization. You can play it how you want, right?[00:29:01] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah, exactly. And I think another thing that we really pointed out specific specifically in this blog is the programmability of it, right?[00:29:09] So what this means is that this render historically render is always a derivative of the game state, right? You’re saying, oh, here’s the game state, I’m rendering out a frame. But here I’m saying actually this render can be part of the gameplay loop. I can say something along the lines of, if upon getting 10.[00:29:26] Apples, I’m gonna, my weapon of choice, my bullet’s gonna turn into apples. And that’s, that’s possible because we can say, we can basically dynamically have certain game state trigger the, the preconditions to the render such that the rendering is now part of the game loop too. One thing is to just say, okay, it’s, it’s, it’s the appearance.[00:29:47] But the second thing is also to say there’s these novel interactions that are possible because this render now has actually priors of the world.[00:29:57] swyx: It is up to the artist to figure out what to do with it.[00:29:59] Fan-yun Sun: It [00:30:00] is up to the creators. Yes.[00:30:01] swyx: Yeah.[00:30:01] Fan-yun Sun: And I also think that’s actually another big argument that we’re making and the reason that we’re picking, taking the bet we’re baking is that a lot of the times, whether it’s for embody AI gaming, like you want a layer where human can inject their intentions.[00:30:15] So, for example, let’s just say in the context of gaming, it’s obviously like my creative intent, but maybe in the context of embodied ai, it’s like, oh, like I take this foundational policy and I want to actually fine tune it to deploy in my house. So you want to almost say, inject, have a layer where human can say, oh, here’s the distribution of things I want to create to achieve my goal.[00:30:35] And I think 3D graphics as it as it is today, is basic, the layer for people to say, Hey, what do I care about in this world? And it allows, basically human intent to be expressed in these worlds much more explicitly and distributionally as opposed to just saying, Hey, I’m gonna generate like, arbitrary.[00:30:54] And it’s like just prompts,[00:30:55] swyx: it’s one of those things where like, I think you, you’re going to build up a series of models, right? [00:31:00] This is just one of, this is probably like the highest utility or heaviest, frequency one, I don’t dunno what to call this. Where like you Yeah. You can immediately drop this in on any game and you don’t need anything else that.[00:31:10] That you guys do. But, I, I could see, I could see that I think the, the human intent is something that people are not even used to because we’re so used to static worlds or, worlds that just don’t react, or, I don’t know. It’s, it, you’re kind of blowing my mind right now with like, I’m, I wonder if you’ve talked to people at GDC Hmm.[00:31:27] And what are they gonna do with it?[00:31:30] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah. Now the stance that we take on this front is like, we’re not gonna be more creative than our users to ship[00:31:35] swyx: it out.[00:31:35] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah. But we wanna make sure that we’re building things in a way that really allows them to express their intent.[00:31:41] swyx: The thing that you said about, here’s the distribution that I want.[00:31:45] I think text may be too low of a bandwidth to. To really demonstrate, because I, I, there, I’m, I’m probably just gonna want to drop in a bunch of, reference assets and then you can figure it out from[00:31:58] Vibhu: there. But you probably wanna do a, a mixture of [00:32:00] both, right? Like you throw in a few images. I wanted this style.[00:32:02] Yeah. I want it to look like this. So it, it’s, it’s a mixture, right?[00:32:05] Chris Manning: I, I think it’s a mixture. I mean, yeah, I mean there’s clearly a visual component of this, and it’s not that, everything can be text. ‘cause of course you want to give a visual look, but there’s also a massive amount of giving the overall picture of the look of the world and the behavior of things that you can express in a few words of text.[00:32:32] And it be very time consuming and difficult to do via visual means. So I think, yeah, you want a combination of both.[00:32:40] Evaluating World Models[00:32:40] Vibhu: So one question I kind of have is, how do we go about evaluating world models? So like, there’s many axes, right? One is like, okay. I have preferences. How well do we adhere to prompts? One is the simulation.[00:32:50] One is like do things, is there core logic that’s broken? So coming from we know how to evaluate diffusion, there’s fidelity, there’s [00:33:00] stuff like that. But what are some of the challenges that most people probably aren’t thinking about?[00:33:04] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah, I think this is like a great question and probably one of the hardest questions in role models because like, I think it always comes back to what are you building this role model for?[00:33:13] And depending on your end goal and purpose, the evaluation should defer. So in the context of games, then the most direct way of measuring is how much behind are people actually spending in this world that you create? And if your goal is to say, for example, in the context that we just talked about, like, hey, deploying, deploying action in body, a agent, then your, your end.[00:33:33] Metric is then, okay, after training in these worlds that you generate how robust it is to when you actually deploy to the target environment. But then, it’s, it’s hard to measure these end metrics. So today people have like these proxy metrics that I call that basically try to measure what we really care about, which is the end metrics, but then frankly it’s different for every use case.[00:33:57] Yeah,[00:33:57] Vibhu: which seems like quite a challenge, right? Like in [00:34:00] in language models or video models. Image models, your benchmarks are proxies, right? People aren’t actually asking instruction, following tool use questions. They’re proxies of how well it will do downstream. But for this, so like, should teams, should companies have their own individual benchmarks outside of games?[00:34:16] If you think of stuff like, okay, video production, movies, stuff like that, that also want to use world models. Should, should they sort of internalize like. Their own proxy. Is this something you guys do? Where, where does that connect[00:34:28] Chris Manning: go? Yeah, I think this whole space is extremely difficult as things are emerging now.[00:34:35] And I mean, it’s not only for world models, I think it’s for everything including text-based models, right? ‘cause in the early days it seemed very easy to have good benchmarks ‘cause we could do things like question answering benchmarks and could you answer the question based on these documents and the various other kinds of, do pieces of logical reasoning or math.[00:34:58] But again, these are sort of. [00:35:00] And there were sort of visual equivalents of things like object recognition, right? For these small component tasks. These days so much of what people are wanting to do also with language models is nothing like that, right? You’re wanting to, have an interaction with the language model and get some recommendations about which backpack would be best for you for your trip in Europe next month.[00:35:25] And it’s not the same kind of thing, right? And it’s not so easy to come up with a benchmark as to does this large language model give you an effective interaction for guiding you in a good way for shopping, right? So, and it’s the same problem with these world models. So if we take the game design case, well success is that a game designer can.[00:35:57] Produce what they are [00:36:00] imagining in a reasonable amount of time. And that’s really the kind of macro task. That’s a very hard thing to turn into a benchmark and I think a lot of this is actually going to turn into people walking, walking with their feet. Right? I mean, I guess that’s what’s happening, at the large language model level, right?[00:36:23] When people are choosing to use, GPT five or Gemini or clawed, individuals are trying out these different models and deciding, oh, I like the kind of answers that GT five gives me, or no, I feel like I get more accurate detail from Claude, right?[00:36:43] Vibhu: It’s a lot of[00:36:43] Chris Manning: vitech, a lot of people just using it.[00:36:45] It’s vibe checking. I realize that, but it’s actually whether. People feel it’s giving them utility in what they want. Right.[00:36:52] Vibhu: And the the interesting thing there is like a lot of people prefer the visual, right? This looks pretty, which is not the objective of what this is [00:37:00] for, right? It’s if a, if a game designer is working on something, they care about the game engine, right?[00:37:04] The state, it’s, it can look whatever. You can fix that up later. Or you can have a really good game state and you can quickly edit it to 20. 20 different versions, like Keep State,[00:37:14] Chris Manning: right?[00:37:14] Vibhu: So[00:37:14] Chris Manning: that’s a really important distinction, for and for speaking to Moon Lake strength, right? So, yeah, great visuals are lovely to look at for a few seconds, but gains are really all about the concept, the game play.[00:37:33] And a lot of the time that doesn’t actually even require great visuals. I mean, there are just lots of very successful games which have relatively primitive visuals, and there are other games where people have spent millions producing photo realistic, visuals, and the game sucks, right? So, keeping those two axes apart is really important in thinking about what’s important in a [00:38:00] world model for different uses.[00:38:02] swyx: This conversation is reminding me of some game review and fiction discussions I’ve, had in my sort of non-AI related life. Some, for some people might know Brandon Sanderson, who’s a very famous, fiction author, had, is is a big game reviewer. And he, he’s a big fan of video games where you change one thing about a normal what you might assume about, about the world.[00:38:22] For example, Baba is you, I don’t know if you might have come across that, where like the rules change as you play the game. And also like where, you can do things like reverse time selectively or like change gravity selectively. And I think this is also reminds, reminds me of other kinds of world models that are created by authors.[00:38:38] Where Ted Chang is, is my typical example where he’ll take the world that, you know today, but change one thing about it and, but then create a consistent world based on that. Which is long-winded answer of me to, of. For me to say is it’s it easy to create alternative roles that don’t exist, but you change one thing and then let’s, let’s run a whole bunch of people through it to see if it works.[00:38:58] Chris Manning: My first dance will [00:39:00] be, that seems a lot easier and more conceivable to do using Techn technology like Moon Lakes than with some of the other world models out there, where the sun can actually make it happen. I’ll let him give a second answer.[00:39:15] swyx: If I guess for you, you’re constrained by the game engine tool, right?[00:39:18] Like at the end of the day, that’s the, that’s the thought, partner that you have. If I ask for something where like, if it never is allowed to reverse time or if gravity only ever works one way, then well that’s it. But sometimes gravity might change,[00:39:33] Fan-yun Sun: but it’s a lot easier to change with code as opposed to a model that is learned primarily on data of.[00:39:42] Real world and virtual worlds that are, I guess, like for example, junior, like there’s actually trained on a lot of real world data and a lot of virtual gaming data, and it’s hard to say maybe it’s easier to say, okay, I wanna change the visuals in like the time period of, of the world. Like, you can’t change gravity, for [00:40:00] example.[00:40:00] Vibhu: I feel like you can to light bounds, right? Everything comes down to like, code is a better way to execute it, but the models aren’t that diverse and creative, right? You can say, okay, make gravity slower. It can do that, but it’s limited to your representation of how you text it out, right? Like they’re, they’re only gonna do a few iterations, whereas programmatically, if there’s a game engine under the hood, you can kind of go wild, right?[00:40:22] So one of the, I dunno, one of the limitations of most models is that they’re very overtrained to one style. Right. And extracting diversity is pretty difficult. At least that’s something we’ve seen.[00:40:35] Fan-yun Sun: I mean, are there examples you have in mind where you Existing models? Yeah. Like it would be easier to do that’s not using code.[00:40:43] Certain types of creative intent or like transition state transitions,[00:40:47] swyx: Clipping, other models, other wo models are very good at clipping through things. Clipping my, my, my legs clipping through a rock because it’s, it’s just, it’s just bad. [00:41:00] Like, you would have to struggle very hard with your stuff to actually make that happen.[00:41:04] Which I think is maybe a topic that you actually prepared on, Gian Splatting versus, the other stuff.[00:41:09] Vibhu: Yeah. Yeah. It’s just for those not super familiar, right? There’s a, there’s gian splatting, there is diffusion. Like what works, what scales up. I feel like in February when Soro one came out the blog post was literally titled like,[00:41:21] swyx: you bring it up.[00:41:22] You never know.[00:41:23] Vibhu: World, world, video generation models are world simulators. It’s super bitter lesson pilled. Yeah, emer, a lot of it is emergence, right? So, not to go through their blog post, basically their whole thing was as you scale up all this consistency, all this stuff just kind of solves, it’s a very simple premise, right?[00:41:41] They just scaled up, diffusion, and from there, this is, this is Feb 2024, how much can we, it’s already been two years, which is basically five years. How much more in AI time do we need to just scale up or, or do we hit a data cap? But I think we already talked about this a lot, right? Like this is back to the beginning discussion of what’s [00:42:00] appropriate for the time.[00:42:01] And that seems like your approach, right?[00:42:03] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah. The point I’m trying to make is that they’re very many, many different types of world simulators and like having a world simulator that can produce pixel coherency is very, very useful for games and, marketing and all these things, but it’s not as useful as people think when it comes to causal reasoning.[00:42:25] When it comes to embodied ai. Yeah, like it this title is true. We’re not saying that it’s, it’s like, not a great world simulator, but actually in the blog that we, we, we, we wrote, the bet is more so that there are gonna be disproportionately large share of value of real world tasks or, and virtual tasks where high resolution pixel fidelity is not needed.[00:42:47] Yes. Video models have their values.[00:42:50] swyx: Yeah. This is at the absolute limit of my physics understanding, but one example that comes to mind is basically having to solve like ba the equivalent of a three [00:43:00] body problem in a deterministic Well, where the video models, which is approximated good enough. Yeah.[00:43:08] Right. Like there’s, there’s some point at which your approach kind of runs into like the you now have to simulate the world. Please, thank you very much. And like you’re trying to do that, but only to the extent that the game engine lets you and like game engines cannot do some things.[00:43:23] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah, no, I mean, I think the interesting or more technical question here actually is where do you draw the boundary between.[00:43:32] What’s handled with, let’s say, diffusion prior and what, when? What’s handled with symbolic priors?[00:43:38] swyx: Yes.[00:43:38] Fan-yun Sun: Okay.[00:43:38] swyx: Okay.[00:43:39] Fan-yun Sun: Right. Let’s go there. Because this, this boundary can actually be fluid. Like I think like maybe what you’re trying to get at is like, okay, people are saying pixel prior, everything. But what we’re saying is, okay, there’s a boundary that we draw where this is where we think provides the most economical value for the domains and things that we care about today.[00:43:59] [00:44:00] And I actually do think, and it’s something that we do internally all the time, which is like, okay, given new equations that we learn or new elements of the world and that we, we learn, or maybe some other knowledge that we acquire in the process of developing the models. Should we still be maintaining this line exactly as it is today?[00:44:22] Or should we move it a little bit left or a little bit right? Right. Like sometimes that we realize that, oh, like maybe customers or, or folks like want certain things that are better handled with preop pryor as opposed to, symbolic prior than,[00:44:34] swyx: yeah. Your, your skin thing is a, is a example moving it, right.[00:44:37] Yeah.[00:44:37] Or left. Yeah,[00:44:37] Fan-yun Sun: exactly.[00:44:38] swyx: I dunno what the, the left right is.[00:44:39] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah, yeah, yeah. No the, the model.[00:44:42] swyx: Yes.[00:44:42] Fan-yun Sun: Actually we have a few iterations of them. They’re actually at slightly different[00:44:45] swyx: I know boundaries. You should, you should do that. That’s a cool dimension to show.[00:44:49] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah.[00:44:50] swyx: Is quantum mechanics the diffusion prior of our world?[00:44:55] Right. It’s like that’s the boundary of classical mechanics versus quantum. Right? Like, that’s it. At one [00:45:00] point God plays dice and the other point doesn’t.[00:45:02] Fan-yun Sun: I dunno if Chris, you wanna say it, but I think, I think generally I feel like physics is better with symbol P priors.[00:45:08] Chris Manning: Even quantum physics.[00:45:09] Fan-yun Sun: Even quantum physics.[00:45:11] swyx: Yeah. This is starts against to, MLST territory is, is what I call it, where, he, he likes to get philosophical. We, we we’re quite friendly.[00:45:18] Vibhu: I mean, we need to get, we need to get singularity. I heard some of that.[00:45:23] swyx: No, no, I think that is actually really helpful and man, I just want you to productize this like, as a product guy, I’m just like, oh, also[00:45:32] Vibhu: a gamer, I[00:45:33] swyx: wanna, it’s like a researcher, like, it’s cool.[00:45:35] Like this is a, the theoretical, like you have a very good, I don’t know, like the way of thinking about these things, but I just wanna see you like, express it. I do think like your fundamentally things when, when you leave open new tools, like, okay, use, use human intent to incorporate it into how you render.[00:45:52] Artists are gonna have to take like two to three years to figure out what to do with this. And you just don’t know.[00:45:57] Chris Manning: Right. But I think, this is, [00:46:00] gives a much more approachable and controllable world for the society, which is the beauty, the beauty of, NLP, that that will enable it to be adopted and used.[00:46:10] And we are very hopeful about that. Yeah,[00:46:13] Fan-yun Sun: yeah. Yeah. I mean, we are, we are very focused actually on commercialization in the sense that like we do, we do really believe in the data flywheel app approach. Yeah. Where, we put this in the hands of the creators and the users and then they will teach us when, what capability our model should improve.[00:46:27] And that’s why we are, we are actually, like products and beta[00:46:31] swyx: Yeah. Focusing on gaming. What, what’s like the adjacent thing to gaming[00:46:34] Fan-yun Sun: embody adjacent, basically. So maybe we can, we can I’ll maybe start with where we see the platform in three years. Yeah. Which is like, okay. The users would tell us what they want to achieve.[00:46:45] The end goal could be, Hey, I just, I wanna make something to teach my kids the value of humility. Or it could be, Hey, I wanna fine tune my, drones to be really good at rescue situations. I could be vacuum robots. I want to like train [00:47:00] my manipulation or like vacuum robot to be very robust to my office, right?[00:47:04] But it’s like, whatever it is, scenario robust to[00:47:06] swyx: my office[00:47:07] Fan-yun Sun: or like navigate very robustly in my office. But then it’s like, whatever end goal that you want, our role model will say, okay, given what you want to achieve, let me generate a distribution of environments such that I can train and evaluate whatever it is you want.[00:47:24] Yeah. Right. Maybe for the purpose of games, it’s just the end simulation and that’s the end product for certain policies. It’s like I can train it within these environments and then help you see where your policy is failing or not. Yeah. And then, so I think,[00:47:37] swyx: so in that case, much more of a training tool.[00:47:40] Than in other training[00:47:41] Vibhu: evaluation? Both. Right?[00:47:43] swyx: Sure. Same. Same thing.[00:47:43] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah, same thing. I think it’s just this role model that allows people to train any policy that can act in any multimodal environments.[00:47:51] swyx: Would it be harder to reward hack? Is there an angle here where it is harder to reward hack? Like it’s just, I’ll just put it generally because I think that’s a, that’s obviously a key [00:48:00] problem that a lot of people face when in training agents in these environments, and I don’t know, can you solve it?[00:48:07] Chris Manning: I think not necessarily. To the extent that there’s a mis specified reward that. It seems like it could be hacked in a more symbolic world or in a more pixel based world. I dunno if Sun’s got any thoughts, but I don’t think that’s really being solved.[00:48:26] swyx: The other thing that comes to mind is just you could just build a better sawa as a video generator model, right?[00:48:31] Because then you, you would move the diffusion, side a bit more further to the right. I think if I got the directionality correct. And that’s it.[00:48:40] Vibhu: It’s better on domains, right? Like on consistency over now, or for sure it exists versus something doesn’t, right.[00:48:46] Chris Manning: So[00:48:46] swyx: yeah. Yeah. Is[00:48:49] Vibhu: is a question more like, like[00:48:51] swyx: I’m just riffing on like, how do you, what can you build, you know?[00:48:54] Oh, with the stuff that you have. I do think that the minor, the academic does go immediately to training [00:49:00] and in eval evaluation, but like art tends to take unusual directions. Like you might end up,[00:49:06] Chris Manning: okay. Yeah. But the question is, can you use this piece of software to develop compelling gameplay and. I don’t think you can take SOAR and produce compelling gameplay, right?[00:49:19] If you want to have a world that you can wander around in a bit, you are good. But what are your abilities to have gameplay mechanics implemented the way you’d like them to be and to have things stay, with the long-term history of your gameplay that influences future actions. I think there’s just nothing there for that.[00:49:39] swyx: Yeah, I do tend to agree. I, I’m just trying to sort of test the boundaries. I would also make the observation that as AAA games industry has developed the line between what is a movie and what is a game has blurred. And you, you, you do end up basically producing a two hour movie as part of your game.[00:49:57] Fan-yun Sun: No, honestly, there, there’s so many actually [00:50:00] applications in adjacent markets that our world model can go into. Yeah. But yeah, it, it’s sort of fun to riff, riff on. Although on the execution side, we we, we need to stay focused with like, okay, what are the capabilities we want to unlock over time?[00:50:11] And there’s a roadmap for that. But yeah, if we’re just riffing on sort of like the possibilities, I feel like, whether it’s endless Yeah, it’s like classic[00:50:18] swyx: and the embedding for a possibility and endless in my mind, it’s very close. Yeah. I do wanna, focus on one, like weird choice. I, I don’t know if it’s weird.[00:50:28] Maybe I’m, I got something here. Audio, right? You could have just said no audio And audio in my mind has a lot of recursion, whereas in video you can just do recasting and that’s much computationally much simpler. Audio just seems way harder. I don’t know if you wanna just comment on just the special 3D audio.[00:50:46] Problem. Did you really have to do it? I guess you do to be immersive, but like a lot of people do treat it as like, well, you just stick a, a tt S model on top of[00:50:57] Vibhu: Well, there’s a lot more to game audio than [00:51:00] just speech. Right. It’s not just[00:51:01] swyx: tts. Yeah. Tts. S Fxt, GM Spatial in my mind Echoes[00:51:06] Chris Manning: Yeah.[00:51:06] swyx: And reflections.[00:51:07] And I, I don’t even know what’s, what else? I don’t know what, what other problems in this space.[00:51:13] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah, I think this point like the, it’s sort of a more, more pointing to the benefits of using an game engine as a tool that’s available to the model, right? Because like part of the spatial audio is from the code that is underlying the simulation.[00:51:32] And while we do give our model access to other types of audio models as. Tools.[00:51:39] swyx: None of them would be spatial, I think.[00:51:41] Fan-yun Sun: But that’s exactly sort of more 0.2. We’re giving our model an abstraction or a suite of tools such that it’s able to achieve that. And you can argue that sort of spatial is like a, like a emergence out of the, the tools that we and abstraction that we provide to the agents.[00:51:59] And I think that’s the beauty of [00:52:00] this, this, this approach is like there’s a lot of things kind of like how human’s built technology and they’re like Lego blocks that build on top of each other. And it’s the same thing here. There’s gonna be things that sort of just sort of emerges from being able to put these things together in like combinatorially interesting ways,[00:52:14] Chris Manning: right?[00:52:15] So this integrated audio model exploits the understanding and semantics of the Moon Lake world, right? And whereas in general for the Gen AI video models. There’s no actual integration across to audio at all, right? That someone might stick some music or stick a soundscape or whatever else on top of their video.[00:52:44] So it’s not a silent video, but they’re in no way connected into a consistent world model. And there’s nothing that’s okay. An action is happening in the video. Therefore there should be a sound that’s [00:53:00] coming from this part of the visual field.[00:53:03] swyx: Yeah.[00:53:03] Vibhu: Is that different than Sora too? Does it not have audio?[00:53:06] Not to say it’s not like[00:53:08] swyx: amazing[00:53:08] Vibhu: isn’t a spatial[00:53:09] swyx: audio.[00:53:09] Vibhu: It doesn’t,[00:53:10] swyx: no. I’ve played around it with it enough. It just sounds like someone put an 11 laps voice on top of it and just tried to do the lip sync.[00:53:18] Vibhu: Oh, yeah. I’ve seen, okay. Generate a dog at the beach and reactions to big wave and move[00:53:23] swyx: around.[00:53:23] It’s definitely like, so have the dog, have the dog move away from camera and see if the, the song goes down. It doesn’t. ‘Cause they don’t have facial audio.[00:53:32] Fan-yun Sun: We do want to basically like we, our moral model, like the one we’re training is basically towards the goal of having a combined latent representation across all these different modalities.[00:53:42] Right? Such that it can like reason across these different modalities. So for example, if I close my eyes and like you play a video, you play a sound of like a car skidding away from me. I almost can like, visually extrapolate that trajectory in my mind. And I think that type of capability, we want our model to be able to reason, right?[00:53:59] And that’s the reason that [00:54:00] we’re sort of taking this multimodal reasoning approach. It’s like we want this combine late in space that can[00:54:05] swyx: Yeah. Oh, you said late in space. We like that. Here we have to play the, the bell Every time that someone says late in space, no, you gotta train daredevil one. Where you, you, you, it’s only audio, but you have to work out.[00:54:15] Where everything is.[00:54:19] Cool. I I think that that was, that was about it for our Moon Lake coverage. I do think that we have like a couple of, Chris Madden questions on, on IR and, just any, any other sort of attention topics or n NLP topics.[00:54:31] Vibhu: Okay.[00:54:31] swyx: Go ahead.[00:54:32] Chris Manning’s Journey: From NLP to World Models[00:54:32] Vibhu: Well, no, I mean, yeah, it’s just fun. We talked a bit about how you guys met, but you basically, you, you were like the godfather of NLP per se, right?[00:54:39] You spent the whole career from early embeddings, early early attention. You did 2015 attention for machine translation, everything. You, you had information retrieval, so RAG before rag, we just wanna shout that out and admire a lot of that. Right? So what prompted the switch over to world models?[00:54:56] How, how’d all that come about?[00:54:58] Chris Manning: To some answer it [00:55:00] is, the enthusiasms and creativity of students, but there’s a bit of a history there, right? So, yeah. So clearly most of my career has been doing stuff with language and how I got into research was thinking, ah, this is just so amazing how humans can produce speech and understand each other in real time.[00:55:21] And somehow they managed to learn languages from their kids. How could this possibly happen? And so, yeah, starting off I was very focused on language, but as it sort of got into the 2000 and tens, I started, going, I’d been working on question answering, and then I started to get, interest in visual question answering.[00:55:42] And that was an area where it was very noticeable. That the visual understanding was bad. Right. These were the days when like, it sort of seemed like there’s almost no visual [00:56:00] understanding. You were just getting answers that came from priors. So, if you asked how many people are sitting at the table, it’d always answer two regardless of how many, how many people you could see in the picture.[00:56:11] And so it seemed like, oh, these models actually aren’t able to get semantic information outta IMA images. And so I was interested in that problem and tried to work more on that. And so then that required. Knowing more about what’s happening in vision and how you can represent visual information.[00:56:34] And then things start, there started to be this revolution of, doing generative AI images. And then I had students that started looking at that before the era of Moon Lake. I was also working with Demi Gore, who founded pika. And so, and[00:56:50] swyx: Ian obviously[00:56:52] Chris Manning: with gans. Yeah. Though Ian was never my student, but yeah, Ian I was very aware for the, the whole decade there of Ian with Gans.[00:56:59] [00:57:00] Yeah. And I mean, Ian was a Stanford undergrad, but yeah,[00:57:03] Vibhu: richard des u.com, I believe he was your student.[00:57:06] Chris Manning: Yeah. Yeah. And there were, there were links across at that stage as well. So there were several papers in that era of doing, I mean, so Andre Cap was a, PhD student at the same time as Richard.[00:57:20] And so there was some joint language vision work in that era as well. It seems kind of ancient by modern standards, but yeah, we’re trying to go from sort of textural dependency graphs to visual scenes[00:57:32] Vibhu: at a time. The glove embeddings really took over a lot of. T-F-I-D-F, like one hot encoding, all that.[00:57:38] The early vision language models we saw were like lava style adapters, right? It’s, it’s technically still just embedding latent space. Let’s add image, let’s like mixed modality. So, and that, that’s one of the things you super put out there too, right?[00:57:51] swyx: Yeah.[00:57:51] Vibhu: Yeah.[00:57:52] swyx: Yeah.[00:57:52] Hiring, Closing & The Name “Moon Lake”[00:57:55] swyx: Well, thank you for all of that. Thank you for all advancing the worlds on, world modeling.[00:57:56] I honestly, do think that if people deeply understand everything we just [00:58:00] covered, they will see what’s coming. I think you guys have, made some, a really significant contribution here. What are you hiring for? What is the, what do people find? We, we agreed that the CTA was a hiring call.[00:58:10] Yeah. Don’t we have a GI You don’t need, you don’t need engineers anymore, right?[00:58:14] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah. On the model side we are actually striving towards basically a self-improving system. But what that means is that we need people to set up the self-improving system. So more, more specifically people who have the intersection of knowledge within co-generation and computer vision and graphics, right?[00:58:30] Yeah. That’s, that’s sort of the core research background that we look for within OTM and, and the majority of the team today do have like both backgrounds.[00:58:38] swyx: When you say computer vision and graphics, are they the same thing or is it computer vision one thing, graphics, another thing. And how intertwined are they?[00:58:46] Chris Manning: They’re intertwined but different.[00:58:49] swyx: Yeah.[00:58:49] Chris Manning: And I think, this relates to some of the themes that we’ve been talking about, that the more explicit underlying [00:59:00] world models that are being constructed inside Moon Lake really draw on the computer graphics tradition. And so it’s then combining that with the visual understanding of vision.[00:59:16] swyx: Got it. Yeah. All right. So you’ve written a game engine, you’re come talk to us, right?[00:59:21] Fan-yun Sun: Oh yeah, definitely. Definitely. But I do think that the line is blurred, like increasingly blurred these days where it’s like if you have a general understanding of group vision and graphics,[00:59:31] swyx: I think for your standards it is, for me it feels like vision is, is.[00:59:35] I’ll leave that to the big labs graphics. I, I, I can get that, you would want to do that from more first principles, but vision, there’s so many vision models off the shelf that I can take, but probably not good enough for your[00:59:45] Fan-yun Sun: I see, I see. If, if you’re sort of like making that distinction then maybe we, we care a little bit more about having graphics[00:59:51] swyx: knowledge.[00:59:51] Yeah, exactly.[00:59:52] It could be like, sometimes a hiring call can be as simple as like, if you know the answer to blah, you should talk to me. Like the sort of core known hard [01:00:00] problem in, in your world.[01:00:01] Fan-yun Sun: Ah, I see. Yeah. In that case, if you, yeah, definitely. If you’ve written a game engine before, if you’ve rld a variety of coding models on different objectives, like[01:00:13] swyx: easy,[01:00:13] Many of those, yeah.[01:00:14] Fan-yun Sun: If you’ve done multimodal lean space alignment, I, I intentionally include[01:00:20] swyx: space.[01:00:20] Fan-yun Sun: Again,[01:00:21] swyx: a poor editor has a thing every time. Yeah. Lean space alignment. Honestly. Is it that hard?[01:00:26] I, I, there’s some scripts out there that I’ve saved for the day. I someday have to do it, but I don’t have to do it.[01:00:31] But it’s[01:00:32] Fan-yun Sun: done, I think. Yeah. There, there’s, there’s a versions of that that are done. But I, I think we are aligning audio, text, language and video. Yeah. Right. Like, and basically we have these role models that are able to act as agents to like act in these worlds and extract long horizon videos and encoding that back to the model to sort of self-improve.[01:00:52] So it’s an insanely exciting, but also technically challenge problem. Yeah. So people who wanna do their lives best work, that only [01:01:00] makes a place.[01:01:01] Vibhu: How big are you guys? Where are you guys based?[01:01:02] Fan-yun Sun: We’re currently based in San Mateo, although we’re moving up to sf. We’re about 18 folks right now.[01:01:08] swyx: My ending question was gonna be why, what, what is the name?[01:01:10] What’s behind the name?[01:01:11] Vibhu: Yeah.[01:01:12] Fan-yun Sun: Oh,[01:01:14] Vibhu: Very cool. Graphics and design, by the way.[01:01:16] Fan-yun Sun: Actually at the, at the time when the, when the, when we started the company, we were thinking a lot about how do we make a company name that gives people the vibe of like, open ai, but for like, almost like industrial light and magic vibes.[01:01:28] Wow. Because it’s like we care about creativity and using that as a funnel to solve a GI. So then we were, we, we brainstorm a lot around like Dreamworks, right? Like industrial light magic. And, so there’s a few, few basically, space of things that we feel like are very, very semantically close to the company’s identity.[01:01:47] swyx: Yeah.[01:01:48] Fan-yun Sun: And then it ended up being Moon Lake, partly because of the Dreamworks vibe, the Dreamworks, moon[01:01:54] swyx: Lake.[01:01:55] Fan-yun Sun: Exactly. Yep. So that was a little bit of that inspiration. And then the moon was sort of [01:02:00] like a, it basically was like about the. Reflection. The reflection part also implies the self-improvement loop.[01:02:07] Wow. That we sort of like, that’s really bleed and that’s the path towards multimodal general intelligence. So that’s, that’s that. I’ll leave that as I love a good[01:02:15] swyx: name. I love a good name. This is great. It’s a[01:02:16] Vibhu: very[01:02:17] swyx: good name. It’s very good. Lo I’m glad I asked the question. I will also say, one, my favorite story, books or biographies ever is, creativity Inc.[01:02:24] With Ed Kamal’s, story about Pixar and how he, was rejected as a Disney animation artist. So then he went into computing and brute forced his way into back. No, I love that story. Yeah. Disney.[01:02:37] Fan-yun Sun: Yeah. And Walt Disney is also like one of my favorite founders. He’s like, his, his story. Like at the time you’re like, okay, I’m gonna create this like.[01:02:44] Immersive park. Like people can’t, don’t even have that technology to create it virtually, but they’re like, you know what, let’s just build it physically such that people can,[01:02:50] swyx: so he is the first world modeler.[01:02:52] Fan-yun Sun: No, I, I I tell people that like, theme parks are world models too.[01:02:56] swyx: Mm. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it’s a small world or it’s [01:03:00] a, like the Epcot center with all the little, replicas of the countries.[01:03:03] Yeah. Those are very interesting. Okay. Well thank you, we’ve covered, a huge amount. Thank you for your time and thank you for inspiring us.[01:03:10] Fan-yun Sun: Thank you[01:03:10] swyx: for having us. Thank you. It’s fun[01:03:11] Fan-yun Sun: chatting. Yeah. It’s been a good time. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Mistral: Voxtral TTS, Forge, Leanstral, & what's next for Mistral 4 — w/ Pavan Kumar Reddy & Guillaume Lample 30.03.2026 48min

  Mistral has been on an absolute tear - with frequent successful model launches it is easy to forget that they raised the largest European AI round in history last year. We were long overdue for a Mistral episode, and we were very fortunate to work with Sophia and Howard to catch up with Pavan (Voxtral lead) and Guillaume (Chief Scientist, Co-founder) on the occasion of this week’s Voxtral TTS launch:Mistral can’t directly say it, but the benchmarks do imply, that this is basically an open-weights ElevenLabs-level TTS model (Technically, it is a 4B Ministral based multilingual low-latency TTS open weights model that has a 68.4% win rate vs ElevenLabs Flash v2.5). The contributions are not just in the open weights but also in open research: We also spend a decent amount of the pod talking about their architecture that combines auto-regressive generation of semantic speech tokens with flow-matching for acoustic tokens (typically only applied in the Image Generation space, as seen in the Flow Matching NeurIPS workshop from the principal authors that we reference in the pod).You can catch up on the paper here and the full episode is live on youtube!Timestamps00:00 Welcome and Guests00:22 Announcing Voxtral TTS01:41 Architecture and Codec02:53 Understanding vs Generation05:39 Flow Matching for Audio07:27 Real Time Voice Agents13:40 Efficiency and Model Strategy14:53 Voice Agents Vision17:56 Enterprise Deployment and Privacy23:39 Fine Tuning and Personalization25:22 Enterprise Voice Personalization26:09 Long-Form Speech Models26:58 Real-Time Encoder Advances27:45 Scaling Context for TTS28:53 What Makes Small Models30:37 Merging Modalities Tradeoffs33:05 Open Source Mission35:51 Lean and Formal Proofs38:40 Reasoning Transfer and Agents40:25 Next Frontiers in Training42:20 Hiring and AI for Science44:19 Forward Deployed Engineering46:22 Customer Feedback Loop48:29 Wrap Up and ThanksTranscriptswyx: Okay, welcome to Latent Space. We’re here in the studio with our gues co-host Vibh u. Welcome. Thanks. Excited for this one as well as Guillaume and Pavan from Mistral. Welcome. Excited to be here.Guillaume: Thank you.swyx: Pavan, you are leading audio research at Mistral and Guillaume, you're Chief Scientist,Announcing Voxtral TTSswyxHost(00:05) Okay. (00:05) Welcome to Lean Space. (00:06) We’re here in the studio with trustee co-hosts, Vibhu. (00:09) Welcome.VibhuHost(00:11) Very excited for this one.swyxHost(00:12) As well as Guillaume and Pavan from Mistral. (00:15) Welcome. (00:16) Excited to be here. (00:17) Thank you for having us.(00:18) Pavan, you are leading audio research at Mistral and Guillaume, you’re a chief scientist. (00:23) What are we announcing today where we’re coordinating this release with you guys?GuillaumeGuest(00:26) Yeah, so we are releasing Voxtral TTS. So it’s our first audio model that generates speech. It’s not our first audio model. We had a couple of releases before.(00:35) We had one in the summer that was Voxtral, our first audio model, but it was like a transcription model, ASR. Like a few months later, we released some update on top of this, supporting more languages. Also a lot of table stack features for our customers, context biasing, precision, timestamping and transcription. We also have some real-time model that can transcribe not just at the end of the level.(00:56) You don’t need to fill your entire audio file, but that can also come in real-time. And here, this is a natural extension in the audio, so basically speech generation. So yeah, so we support nine languages, and this is a pretty small model, 3D model, so very fast, and also state of the art. Performed at the same level as the base model, but it’s much more efficient in terms of cost, and also much, in terms of cost, it’s also much cheaper, only a fraction of the cost of our competitors.(01:22) And we are also releasing the work that this model is running.swyx What’s the decision factor?Guillaume It’s a good question.swyxThere will be more. Yeah, Pavan, any sort of research notes to add on?Architecture and CodecPavan: But it’s a novel architecture that we develop inhouse.We traded on several internal architectures and ended up with a auto aggressive flow matching architecture. And also have a new in-house neural audio codec. Which, converts this audio into all point by herds latent [00:02:00] tokens, semantic and acoustic tokens. And yeah, that’s that’s their new part about this model and we’re pretty excited that it’s, it came out with such good quality and Jim was mentioning. Yeah, it’s a three B model. It’s based off of the TAL model that we actually released just a few months back and insert trunk and mainly meant for like the TTS stuff, but they need text capabilities are also there. Yeah.swyx: So there’s a lot to cover.I always I love any, anything to do with novel encodings and all those things because I think that’s obviously I creates a lot of efficiency, but also maybe bugs that sometimes happen. You were previously a Gemini and you worked on post training for language models, and maybe a lot of people will have less experience with audio models just in general compared to pure language.What did you find that you have to revisit from scratch as you joined this trial and started doing this? At leastUnderstanding vs GenerationPavan: when it comes to, for, I think the, there are two buckets, I guess the audio understanding and audio [00:03:00] generation. The audio understanding, like the walkthrough models that Kim was mentioning that we released earlier.The walkthrough chat that we released I think July last year, and the follow up transcription only, models family that we released in January, that would be one bucket, and the generation is another bucket. I think. You can also treat them as a unified set of models, but currently the approaches are a little different between these two.To your question on how audio is fed to the model? In the understanding model, it’s very similar to actually Pixar models that we also released,swyx: yes.Pavan: That’sswyx: amazing.Pavan: It was pretty, I, that was the first project I worked on after joined Misra. It was pretty, pretty nice. And Wtu was very similar in spirit.I guess So we feed audio through an audio encoder similar to images through a vision encoder, and it produces continuous embeddings and which are fed as tokens to the main transformer decoded transformer model. Yeah. On the model output is just text. So on the output side, there is nothing that needs to be done in these kinds of mode.I [00:04:00] guess the interesting part of what the generation stuff is, the output now has to produce audio and. The approach that we have is this neural audio codec, which converts audio into these latent tokens. There is a lot of existing attrition and a lot of models which are based off of this kind of approach.And we took a slightly. A different, design decisions around this. But at the end of the day, the neural audio product converts audio into a 12.5 herdz set of latents. And each latent is, has a semantic token and a set of acoustic tokens. And the idea is that you take these discrete tokens and then feed it on the input side.There’s several ways to use this at each frame, but we just sum the embedding. So it’s like having key different vocabularies. Combine all of them because they all correspond to one audio frame on the input side. The output side is the interesting part on the output side, the, it’s not the, I don’t know if it’s the most popular, but one.Popular technique is to have a depth transformer [00:05:00] because you have K tokens at each time step, like with a text, you just have one token at each time step. So you just do predict the token from the vocabulary with, yeah, with just, you get probabilityswyx: This’s a very straightforward text. VeryPavan: straightforward.swyx: Yeah.Pavan: But if you have K tokens, then the name thing would be to predict all of them in paddle. That doesn’t work. At least that doesn’t work that well because audio has more entropy. And the, one of the techniques people use is this depth transformer where you you almost have a small transformer, or it can be L-S-T-M-R in as well, but people use transformers and you predict the K tokens in auto aggressive fashion in that.So you have two auto reive things going on.Flow Matching for AudioPavan: So the thing we did differently is in, instead of having this auto aggressive K step prediction, we have a flow matching model. Instead of modeling this as a discrete token set we trained the codec to be both discrete and continuous to have this flexibility.So we did try the discrete stuff too, and which it works well, but the continuous stuff works just better. So yeah, we took this flow matching, so the, it’s a flow [00:06:00] matching head, which takes the latent from the main transformer and like kind in fusion, it’s denoising, but in this flow matching itself, velocity estimate.So you go from this noise t all the way to there. Audio latent, which corresponds to the 80 millisecond audio and then, which is sent through the work order to get back the 80 millisecond audio frame.swyx: Yeah. Is this the first application of flow matching in audio? Because usually I come across this in the image.Pavan: Yeah. Actually, in some sense there are models flow matching models in audio, but I think this specific combination I could be wrong. There could be somewhat. No. I haven’t seen. I haven’t seen much work in this, so I think it’s novel and a lot of it’s just a way bigger community, so they, I think they pioneer a lot of these diffusion flow matching work, and it’s interesting to adopt some of the ideas there into audio and,swyx: yeah.Pavan: Yeah, I’m, personally that’s the think part which is trying out about. One of more meta point is unlike text, even in vision, I think this is true, but in [00:07:00] audio step literature that there is no.Winner model, yet there is no, okay, this is the way you do things. It’s it’s still by, I think people are still iterating and figuring out like what’s the best overall recipe. I guess the idea. Pretty sure there are models which are also completely end-to-end, like NATO audio. NATO audio, but it’s still not come to a convergence point where this, the right way to think that.That also makes. A space pretty exciting to explore.Real Time Voice AgentsVibhu: What are some of the ways to look at it?Vibhu: There are ways where you can do diffusion for audio generation, but if you want like real time generation, that’s a big thing with the approach I’m assuming that you took. Yeah. And also like how do you go about evaluating different axes of what you care about, yeah,Pavan: good point. I think we so you can do just flow matching diffusion for the whole audio. We didn’t even go down that path because one of the main applications is voice agents and we want real time streaming, and that’s the use case. That’s not the only use case, but that’s one of the primary use cases we want to get to.So we [00:08:00] picked the auto aggressive approach for that. And within the auto aggressive space, again, you can do chunk by chunk or you can do so we picked the. I think at least personally prefer the operations, which are the simplest, and so we try to see, can we just add audio as just another head to our regular transformer decode model because that kind of makes it easier for eventual end-to-end modeling of audio text native modeling.Yeah. And it works pretty well. So I guess we went with that and we tried a little bit, but the flow matching head itself, like we had a discreet. Diffusion kind of approach, which also works well, but the flow matching work better.swyx: I was just curious about how you also think about this overall direction of research.Do you basically, when you work with the audio team, do you set some high level parameters and then let them explore whatever, or how does it work between you guys?Guillaume: No I think the way it works is that we are the, we are prioritizing together, I think, what are the most important features because there are many things we can do [00:09:00] in audio.Yeah, I think we try to. These are like how we should do things, for instance. Ultimately what we want to do is to build this through duplex model, but we are not going to start this start there directly, I think is. Some of the project people are doing, butswyx: just to confirm, full effects means it can speak while I’m speaking or,Guillaume: yeah.Okay. Audio. Yeah. Yeah. So intimately we’re going to get there, but for us it was, we decided to take it like a step by step. So we start with whatever is the most important. I think support customers, which is the transcription is the most popular use case. Then the speech generation, Soviet time, just a bit before that.And then actually to be like more, but try combining everything all together. But but yeah, we thought it was also important to like separate things and optimize each capability one by one before weswyx: measure of that together. And the super omni model. ButGuillaume: very interesting because as Par said, it’s when you work on some other domains of this airline and everything, there are many areas where I think it’s not as interesting.For instance. Many places, it’s essentially just around data or like creating new environments on a lot of kind [00:10:00] of easy things. But things were, I think the research is maybe not as interesting. Were in audio. There are so many ways to actually build this model. So many ways to go around it. That’s the sense I think is really interesting.And what we also tried for speed generation is that we tried multiple approaches. What was interesting that even though they were extremely different, they under the big know the particles but the for matching turned out to be quite more natural. So we are happy with this.swyx: Is there intuition why it maybe like flow matching is just models speech better in some natural fundamental, latent dimension?Pavan: No, I think the main thing is e even at a particular time step, there is a distribution of things.swyx: Yes.Pavan: To be predicted like the way you inflate. So you already know the word that you’re speaking and Yeah. The intake space, let’s say the word maps register a single token for simplicity.In most cases it does. So there is not a lot of so you just pick the word, but with within audio, even the same word could, even with your own voice, could be inflicted in so many different ways. And I think [00:11:00] any approach which like models this distribution and. And flow matching is one, one of the take.It’s not the only one at all, but it’s a one which works pretty reasonably well. I think that’s better. So you have to pick across several different, the intuition I have is it’s, there are some, several different clusters each corresponding to some specific way you would inflict, pronounce that thing.And you can’t predict the mean of it because that corresponds to some blurred out speech or something like that. But you have to pick one. And then like sharpswyx: conditional inference.Pavan: Yeah, exactly.swyx: Is that all covered under disfluencies, which is I think the normal term of art. Pauses intonations. By the way, I have to thank Sophia for setting all this up, including like some of these really good notes becausePavan: Yeah.swyx: I’m less familiar with the audios for me.Pavan: No. I think dis dismisses are definitely one such Eno defenses is more likeswyx: which is arms are.Pavan: Yeah, arms. And also repeat like you like,swyx: yeah.Pavan: You do this full of words, your thinking, so you repeat the word.swyx: Okay. Whereas intonation is like a diff, it’s up up [00:12:00] speak and all this.Okay.Pavan: Yeah. So I think there is a lot of like entropy. And modeling it as a distribution. And a, any technique which helps with it and the depth transformer is a conditional way of modeling this. And Transformers actually really good at it, even though that’s a mini transformers. So I think that worked pretty well too for us too.It’s just that the main concentration is when you have a depth transformer. If you have K tokens, you need to do K auto steps, right? Even though it’s a small thing, it’s K steps, which is very vacant, say heavy, but flow matching. We were able to cut it down significantly. So we are able to do the inference in quad steps or 16 steps and it works pretty well.And there are more normal techniques to bring it down even further to like, in extreme case, one step like we’re not doing it yet, but it at least the framework, LEDs itself to more efficient and Yes.swyx: And the image guys have done.Pavan: Yeah.swyx: Incredible work guys. Yeah.Pavan: It now you just. Send a prompt and you get an image.swyx: Yeah. Surprisingly not enough. I think image model labs use those techniques in production. I think it’s, I feel like it’s a lot of research demos, but [00:13:00] nothing I can use on my phone today.Guillaume: The thing, there’s a thing that would be interesting here is that since, indeed I’ve been so much sure that has been done in the vision community compared to radio dys, stomach, I think there are so many long infra Yeah.And there are so many things we can do to actually improve this further. So it’s our first version, but we have so many ways to exist, much better and much more efficient, cost efficient, soswyx: yeah.Guillaume: So really it’s not a new field at all, of course, but there are still so many things that can be done.Perfect. It’sswyx: nice. I should also mention for those who are newer to flow matching, I think the creator, this guy’s name is Alex, he’s done I think in Europe’s maybe two Europes as ago. There was, there’s a very good workshop. There’s one hour on like this matching is I would recommend people look that up.That’s the other thing, right?Efficiency and Model Strategyswyx: The efficiency wise, like I, I imagine like the reason is open weights the reason you pick 3.6 B backbone it you are 3.4 B you are, try to fit to some kinda hardware constraints. You kinda fits some kinda basic constraints. What are they?Guillaume: Not necessarily, I think something we care about in our model that they’re efficient.So we have a [00:14:00] lot of separate model, for instance. So we have this that is very small, very efficient. We also have a small OCR model that is available. Good, highly efficient as well. And I think on a project maybe there, I think companies are going to take is to have a coverage general model that will do a bit of everything.But that is also going to be expensive. On here. What want say is if you care about this specific use case, if you can actually use this model, it just does that. It’s extremely good at it. Survey, very efficient. That’s why we can actually add. We do, but also OCR that are like really good at that.And that would be much more cost effective factors and the general model that will contain a lot of capabilities you don’t really need. So yeah. So we’re doing like general model, but also like more customized model. This,Open Weights and BenchmarksVibhu: how does it compare to other TTS models? It’s, we are going follow open wave.We’re just dropping it. I think it’s pretty good.Pavan: Yeah, I think it’s pretty good. Like it, it’s definitely one of the best. For sure. It’s probably I would say it’s the best open source model, butVibhu: decipher themselves.swyx: Yeah.Voice Agents VisionVibhu: Why now? How does it fit into broader ral vision? How do you see voice agents?How do you see voice? I think every year I’ve heard, okay, you’re a [00:15:00] voice. You’re a voice. There’s a lot of architectural stuff. There’s a lot of end time that see it, your solving, but where do you see voice setting?Guillaume: We had so many customers asking for voice. That’s also why we wanted to build it.What’s interesting in this domain is that. In a sense, if you take something simple like transcription it doesn’t seem like something that should be very hard to do for a model. It’s essentially, it’s pattern recognition. It’s classification on this. Models are very good at classifying, right?Or nonetheless, when you talk to them it’s not there yet, right? It’s not, you don’t talk to them the same way you talk to a person. On something, maybe people don’t realize it. It’s in English it’s still much better than in any user language, even compared to French instance. If you talk to this million in French, when you see people talking to this they’ll talk very slow.They’ll articulate as much as they can. So it’s not natural, right? We’re not yet to this. And I think, yeah, maybe the next generation will not know this, but yeah, I think people that. But our edge will actually always keep this bias speaking very slowly when they talk to this model. Even if maybe, probably in a couple of years, maybe next year it’ll not be necessary anymore.But yeah. But what’s interesting is to see that yeah, even for like languages [00:16:00] like yeah, French and Spanish Germans that are not no, no resource on religion. You have a lot of audios there on still it’s not as good. And I think a consequence. Because then for this, I suppose just is not as much energy, as much effort that has been put done in some other mod that for some vision or like coding.But but yeah, there’s still a lot of progress to be done. I think it’s just a question of doing the work and it’s clear path I think to get there.Pavan: It’s a little fascinating because I worked on Google Assistant I think while back at this point, but it’s, I think it’s, it like when you take a step back, it’s fascinating.It’s not that long ago. It was like four years ago or five years ago, and it’s now it’s completely audio in, audio out and the function calling and the whole thing happens completely end to end. And in a very natural,swyx: yeah,Pavan: natural way and still ways to go. Kim was telling, even despite all the previous, it’s not like you’re speaking to a person.When you talk to any of these agents, bots, or voice mode kind of situation, it’s still like a gap. I think that’s the great part and I feel like with even the existing [00:17:00] stack, we should be able to get to this very natural speech conversational abilities soon enough I guess.And we’ll also hope. I get thatGuillaume: on this kind of the next step, right? Because when you talk to these agents, like usually people are just writing to them and sometimes they’ll this very clear, for instance, you are, you want to write code, but you are, you have a very clear idea of how you want the model to implement what you in mind.But so here you are able to spend a lot of time writing. So it’s not really efficient on audio is really like a natural interface that is just not there yet, but I think it’s just gonna be the place.Vibhu: How’s it like building, serving, inferencing, like we see a lot about, it’s very easy to take LMS off the shelf, serve them.Fine tuning, deploying. I know you guys have a whole you have Ford, you have a whole stack of customizing, deploying. Is there a lag in getting that. Like distribution channel. Are you helping? There is. So like prompting, lms, you can have them be concise, verbose, all that.They’re built on LM backbones, these models. How do you see all that?Enterprise Deployment and PrivacyGuillaume: Yeah, I think this is a lot of what we’re doing with our own customers. Very [00:18:00] often they come to us, so it’s for different reasons. I think one reason is sometimes they have this lot of privacy concerns.They have this data that it’s very sensitive. They don’t want data to leave. The companies, they wanted to stay. Inside the company. So we have them deploy model in-house. So either on a, either on premise or on private cloud. So they’re not worried that it’s given to a third party on the there some leakage.Sometimes they have this kind of many companies have this different, sensitivity of data they have like sometimes channel chat can send it to the cloud has to stay there. So then it creates some kind of heterogeneous workflows where it’s annoying. You cannot send some data to the cloud.This one you can, so here, when we actually deploy the model for them, they don’t have this consideration. They are like not worried that, this is going to leak. Everything is much easier. So we help them basically do this on the, so it’s one of the very proposition. But but the other is very often, when customers use this off the shelf close model, but very sad is that they are not leveraging, these data that have been collecting for four years or something for decades.So much data. Sometimes it’s trillions of tokens of [00:19:00] data in a very specific domain. Their domain, which is data that you’ll not find in the public, on the public internet. So data on which, like close model, we actually not have access to one, which that’s going to be really good. So if they’re using like closed source models are basically not benefiting from all these insights.All these data they have collected three years, they can always give it into the context that in France, but is never as good as if you actually train the modern analysis. So yes, that’s basically what we help them to do. We actually provide them some purchase, basically what we announced at GTC this week.So we provide them with this, it’s basically like a platform with a lot of tools to actually help them process data. Trained on that. Yeah, it’s actually the same thing that we’re using in the science team. So it’s actually very better tested infrastructure, like a lot of efficient training cut base.For a quality pre-training like a fine tuning, even doing S-F-T-I-L. So we help them do this using the same tools as what our science team is building is using. So since it’s tools that we’ve been using for two years now, it’s really better tested. It’s really sophisticated.So it’s the same thing. We are giving to them, giving the company the same thing [00:20:00] that what are same still using internally actually build their own ai and it makes a really big difference. I think sometimes customers. And many in general don’t realize how much better the model becomes when you fine tune it on your own data.And you can have a, your model is here. You start from there. You have a cross source model, which is sort here, but if you actually fine tune it can actually really go much further than this. And then you have a very big advantage. The model is trained on your entire company knowledge, so it knows everything.You don’t have to feed like 10 K tokens of contact at every query. So it’s it’s much easier. It’s a bit, I think using a closed source model is really sad because it basically puts. You are not leveraging all this data and you are going to be using the same model as all your old competitors when you’re actually using, everything you have been collected for years, which is really valuable.So yeah. So we help basically customers do this. We have a lot of solution I mean deployed for engineers that go in the company that basically look at the problem customers are facing to look at what they’re struggling to do what we should do to solve it. So we help them solve them together.So it’s I think our approach is a bit different, but here. [00:21:00] Some of their companies and competitors, it’s, we don’t just release an endpoint on sale, do some stuff on top of that, or we don’t just give a checkpoint. We really look very closely with customers. We look at the issues they have, we had them solve them.We really make some tailored solution for the client are facing. Some example are also going to be, sometime we have some customers. They really wanted to have a really good model, really performance on some, like Asian languages on the, if you take some of the shelf models, they can speak it, they can write in this language, but it’s not amazing.This language would be like maybe zero 1% of the mixture. So it has been included during training, but very little. So what we did here is upgrade. We trained a new model for them, but so this language was 50% of the mix, so it’s much, much stronger. It knows of the dialects, it knows the, so it’s yeah.So it’s some example of things we can do and it’s really arbitrary, custom. I think you had some of their customers, for instance, they wanted some. They wanted some 3D model that can do audio with a very good function cable. So something you wanted to put in the car in particular, they wanted this to be offline because in a car you don’t necessarily have access to internet.So [00:22:00] yeah. So here we can actually build the solutions. There is no like model out of the box on this. In the internet you have this very, you have this very general model generalist, like he’s strong model. But for things like this, they always want at specific solutions and on some other reasons.Sometimes they come to us is because, like they, they experiment with some closed source model. They get some prototype. They’re happy with what they build. They, it works well. They’re happy with the performance, and then they want to go to production and then they analyze. But it’s extremely expensive.You cannot push this. It’s so then they come back to us on this. They can help us build the same thing as this, but using something much cheaper on here. And here we can sometime be something 10 x cheaper by just functioning a model and it’ll be better OnPrem on their old server and also much cheaper as well.So yeah,swyx: that’s the drop pitch right there. Take all themoney.Vibhu: And outside of that you do, we do put open wave models so people can do this themselves. I feel like not enough people go outta their way.swyx: They’re not going to, they’re gonna ask them to do it as the expert. IGuillaume: think initially we didn’t know, [00:23:00] we wanted completely short at the beginning of the company because, I think our study was not exactly the same as what it is today, but what we underestimated initially is the complexity of deploying this model and connecting them to everything to be sure it has access to the company knowledge on the, and it was, yeah, on, we were seeing customers struggling with this, but it was even, that was three years ago and no, things are much more complicated because now you don’t just have, text on SFT on a simple instruction following.You have reasoning like your agents, you have like tools. You have a multimodal audio, so it’s much more complicated than before. And even back then it was hard for customers. So they really need, have some support and this is why actually providing like always some four D position as well. The processFine Tuning and Personalizationswyx: I’m curious is there also voice fine tuning that people do?Pavan: So in this forge we also have a say unified framework. And the hope is like the er speech to text that we released earlier this year. And even the ER chart that we released last year. And I think a big people, I think there’s a big, rich ecosystem [00:24:00] of people fine tuning whisper, and people want the same thing with w so it’s much stronger than Whisper.And yeah, the the platform offers that kind of fine tuning yeah, which could be any kind of fine tuning. Like for instance, even sometimes people want to support new languages to this, which are tail languages, which we hope to cover. Certain natively, but if there is a language where you data and you want to frank you, I think this is a good use case.Or the other use cases, you, it’s the same language, like even English but it’s in a very domain specific way.swyx: Yeah. Terminology, jargon, medical stuff.Pavan: Exactly. And also there’s specific acoustic conditions like there’s a lot of noise or the, and. The model will do decently in most conditions, but you can always make it better.And that those are some of the use cases where you can improve it e even further. And that’s one good use case for this and for text to speech. We’re just releasing it so we’ll have support for that soon too. I think it’s similar use case.Voice Personalization Pavan: It’s little different the kind of things that you want to extend a [00:25:00] text to speech model to, which could be like voice personalization, voice adaptation for enterprises.Many enterprises need very specific kind of tone, very specific kind of like personality for this kind of voice. And all of those are like good use cases for fine tuning.swyx: This one I was gonna ask you, we never talked about cloning voice clothing here. How important is it, right?Like I can clone a famous person’s voice. Okay. ButPavan: the main use case would be like for enterprise personalization, like enterprises need like a lot of customization. You don’t want the same. Voice for all the enterprises. Each enterprise want a customized, specialized something which is representative both their brand and also their, I guess safety considerations and the use case I think the kind of thing that you would deploy as a empathetic assistant in the context of a healthcare domain would be very different from the kind of thing that would be in a customer support bot and would be different from like more conversational aspects.I think those are the. [00:26:00] Customizations you would expect from enterprise. And that’s the main use case, at least from our side.Vibhu: My, my basic example is you don’t want to call to customer services and have the same exact voice. It’s just, it’s gonna be weird.Long-Form Speech ModelsLong-Form Speech ModelsVibhu: But also on the technical side of this, so there’s like a few things in TRO that I thought were pretty interesting.He’s a big fan of this paper. Oh, he said very good paper. He said this is the best SR paper he’s ever read. Yeah. I’ve hyped up this voice paper enough. We covered it. Somewhere, but a big thing. So Whisper is known for 32nd generation a 32nd processing. You extended this to 40 minutes. There was a lot of good detail in the paper about how this was done.Even little niches of how the padding is. So it’s very much needed. You need to have that padding in there, the synthetic data generation around this. I’m wondering if you can share the same about the new speech to text, right? Text to speech. So how do you. How do you generate long form, coherent?How do you generate, how do you do that? And then any gems? Is there gonna be a paper?Pavan: Yeah. Yeah. They would be a technical report. Okay. Yeah. I think I could have a lot of details.Real-Time Encoder AdvancesPavan: But me I think the [00:27:00] summary of it, actually, some of the considerations in this paper were, because we started with the wipa encoder as the starting point, and now we have in-house encoders, like the bigger time model, for instance, which we released in January.Also release a technical report for that real time model as well, which is this dual stream architecture. It’s an interesting architecture. You should check it out. And there we have a causal encoder and I don’t think there’s any strong, multilingual causal encoder out in the community. So we thought it’s a good contribution.So that’s one nice encoder there. Other people want to adapt. That’s a good end code. And we train it from scratch. I think her. Post stack is now mature enough that we are able to train super strong ENC codes. And some of these considerations, like spatting and stuff, is a function of the Whisper ENC code.And now that we train encoders, inhouse the design concentrations are different.Scaling Context for TTSPavan: And for the question on text to speech, I think that’s also leans onto the original auto aggressive decoder backbone. I think, it says very, almost identical considerations. I think the long context in it’s not even long con, [00:28:00] so the model processes audio at 12.5 herds, so one second maps to like 12.5 tokens.So I think one minute is like 7.8 tokens. You can get like up to 10 minutes in eight K context window and get half an hour and 30 K context window. So that’s and 30 2K context is something that’s we are very comfortable training on. We can extend it even much longer. 1 48 K. Okay. You can naturally see how it can extend to even our long generations.Yeah. We need the. Like data recipe and the whole algorithm to work coherently enough through such long context. But the techniques are some way very similar to the text, long context modeling. And the key differences, it’s just doing flow matching order regressively instead of a text open prediction.swyx: Okay. I think that was most, most of the sort of voice questions that we had. ButWhat Makes a Model SmallVibhu: I have a big question on Mr. Al, Mr. Small. So what is small? How do we define [00:29:00] small? What is this? What is this? I remember the days of Misal seven B on my laptop. The snuff fitting on my laptop. I could run it on the big laptop, butGuillaume: it’s just additional.Question of terminology, like here what we did, baseball is north active parameters, but it’s true. Really not give it another name, but yeah, we could have called it medium, but only, I,I suppose it’s a model that we released mixture of experts. It’s a model that combines different model before which we were doing the same, is that we had one model, general model for Israel. Doing instruction following, were like a separate model that was Devrel trial. So qu coding specify specific to code with another model for Reason Maal.So this were separate artifacts built by different team at trial on what we’re doing is basically merging all of this. It was, you had pixel trial was the first vision model. We was like a separate model on the way we do things internally is that we have one team focus on one capability, build one model.On the means mature, mature enough, we decide to merge this into the [00:30:00] matrix. But here it was the first time we basically match all of this into one. But there are some other things we did at first time to merge time, for instance, like more capabilities or function coding I think would be, are, it’s going to be much, much better in this trial, small platform.But but yeah, so it’s our latest model on the working is,Vibhu: and yeah, key things is it’s very sparse. Six, be active pretty efficient to serve. 2 56 K context. Yeah,Merging Capabilities vs Specialistsswyx: I think what’s interesting is just this general theory of developing individual capabilities in different teams and then merging them.Where is this going gonna end up?Vibhu: Like we’ve seen the five things put together in this. Yeah. What are the next five teams?swyx: I think actually OpenAI has gone away from the original four Oh. Vision of the Omni model. This was what they were selling. All modalities and all modalities out.But I feel like you might do it.Guillaume: I think there’s some mod where it’s not competitive use, for instance for audio. For audio here, if you want to do transcription, I think it makes no sense to use a model. If you just want to trans tech it, it’ll be very inefficient. If you want to do audio, you probably just want to be the [00:31:00] one VR 3D model performance essentiallyswyx: the same.It’s going to be incredibly cheaper. So here, that’s why we wantGuillaume: to have a separate but just does this. Yeah, I think the question is just, yeah. If you are to, to your model. By speech and you asking like a very complex questions on how you do this on the, just to cascade things. Do you want to put a d in a model that has like a one key around it?It’s like a, not a competitive discussion, I think unaware if you doing into the direction, but that’s possible. Of course. But yeah. But I think for us, the next capabilities we want to try to integrate into these models when we are going to be yes, like marketing or no reasoning better, I think more capabilities that people don’t talk too much about, but at high bottom, I think for our customers in our, on different industries, for instance, things are around like a legal computer.I design all these things that is this males out of the box are to put at that. Because people, if you don’t prioritize this, there is not like too benchmark on that. Butswyx: this done how toGuillaume: make this good and this just start to do the work. Extracting some that processing it [00:32:00] expression. So yeah.But we are offering the imagine to this.swyx: I think for voice. Yeah. The key thing I think over maybe like the last year or so with VO and gr Imagine and all these things is joining voice with video, right? Which people don’t understand spatial audio because like most TTS is just oh, I’m speaking to a microphone in perfect studio quality.But when you have video, like the voice moves around.Pavan: That’s true. The constitution was a little different in the sense that there it’s like a a standalone artifact where you get the whole thing and you consume it. But in a conversational setting, it’s a, you need the extreme low latency.swyx: Yeah,Pavan: streaming would be one of the primary concentrations.swyx: You can build a giant company just doing that, right? So you don’t need to do the voice, but I was just know on the theme of merging modalities, that is something I, I am like, wow. Like I didn’t, everyone up till, let’s say mid last year was just doing these like pipelines of okay, we’ll stitch a TTS model with a voice thing and a lip sync [00:33:00] thing and what have you.Nope. Just giant model. Yeah.Open Source MissionVibhu: I have a two part question. So one is, it’s still open. It seems like open source is still very core to what you guys do and I just have to plug your paper. Jan 2024. This is the one trial of experts like. Very fundamental research on how to do good.Moes paper comes out very good paper for anyone. That’s just side tangent. No.swyx: This thing caused, we bring back, eight by 22 was like the nuclear bomb for open source. I think it takes Shouldn be more seven B more. Yeah. Yeah. But this is a bigger opposite than me.Yeah. Yeah I don’t remember this. I remember, I don’t think it was January, right? It was like new reps it was, it dropped during new reps and everyone in Europes was December of 25th, I think. Yeah. The model was did as well.Vibhu: It’s just a little update probably.swyx: Yeah. No, but you have a point to make.Vibhu: No, you gotta check that. But then, I just want to hear more broadly on open source for you guys, and when you had asked earlier [00:34:00] about what’s next, what are the other, side tapes working on you. You put out Lean straw. This,swyx: it’s not necessarily surprise. I was like, I don’t, this doesn’t fit my mental model or Misra.Guillaume: Yeah. First for open source in general, I think it’s really something which looks to the January of the company. I think we started it per once, is we so we have open sourcing with, since the beginning and even before this. So before this, so me and Tim were at Meta, we released LA and I think what was really nice.To see that before this, for most researchers like universities, it was impossible to work on elements. There was no alien outside. And if you look at many of the techniques that were developed after, for instance, was open source all this post-training approaches like even DPOD, like preference optimization, all of this were done by people that had access to this portal.And it’ll have been impossible to do without this. So it’s really making sense, move faster. So we really want to contribute to this ecosystem. I think like the deep and also like very lot of impact. All these papers that are I think in the open source community are really helping the science community as a whole to move faster.So [00:35:00] we want contribute to this ecosystem. That’s why we’re releasing very detailed technical reports. So ma trial and our first reason model, and ation, lot of results, things that work, things that did not work as well. Think helpful on the, yeah, so for the audio model also to share a lot of details, share of them for real time model.And the, yeah, so we really want to continue this, basically belong to this community of people who share science. I think we really don’t want to be, leading in a world where the smartest model, the best models are only behind, close doors. Only accessible to a shoe companies that we, as a power to decide we can use them on it.I think it’s a scary future. We don’t want to live in, we really want this model to be accessible to anyone that want. Intelligence to be used unaccessible by anyone who can use it. So yeah, so that’s why we are pushing this mission and source model. Yeah. So not, so yeah, no strategy. So it’s open source, not the first model, so not the best on the Yeah.Lean and Formal ProofsGuillaume: LIN trial I think is also one step into this direction. So it’s yeah, a bit different than what we are usually releasing. But we have a small team internally [00:36:00] working on them. Formal proofing, formal math. So I think a subject we care about in general and we were working on reasoning. I think we started too early before doing reasoning without LMD is very hard, especially when you work with formal systems because the amount of data you have is negligible.It’s addressable community of people writing like formal proofs. But the reason why we like it is because I think there is if you look at what people are doing with reasoning, is there, the problems that you can use. Are usually going to be problems where you can verify the output. So for instance, all this ai ME problem where the solution is a number between 100, like a thousand.So you can verify, compare this with a reference or it’s an expression. You can actually compare the output expression generic with the reference. But there are many, most of them have problem and most of the reason problem. There is no like way to easily verify the solution. If the question is show that F is continuous, cannot compare in the reference, right?If it’s a probe that this is true or probes is properties, there is no way to. You cannot act, simply verify the correctness of your proof. So it’s hard to apply the, there is no referable reward here. So [00:37:00] what you could provide is of course, like a judge and judge that will look at your proof. But it’s very hard and it’s very, you could do certain, some reward hacking happening there.So it’s difficult. You could provide like a reference proof, but then there are also many ways to prove the same thing. So if the model says give negative reward because it’s a different poop, maybe it was still digit proof, just different. So it’s not going to work well. What’s nice with lean and with formal probing is that you don’t have to worry about this whatsoever.We just,swyx: they’re all function is largely compiles in lean is functionally the same. Exactly.Guillaume: It’s like a problem if it compiles it’s correct. It’s very easy. And you can apply this and then you can,swyx: it’s just way too small. So no human will actually go and do it.Guillaume: Yeah, that’s exactly.It’s the only people can do it. It’s like a very small committee of people doing a PhD on that. So it’s super small. And it’s sad because it’s actually very useful on not just mat, but also in software verification. So for instance, software verification today. So tiny market. Very few industries work on this and we need that.It’s usually going to be like companies like building airplanes, air robotics,swyx: likeGuillaume: things [00:38:00] where they absolutely want to be sure. Life depend on this, but it’s very rare that people formally verify the correctness of their software. But I think one of the reasons for this is simply that it’s just hard to do.swyx: Are you think of TLA plus? It’s the language that some people do for software verification? No. That people use in a ference, but but yeah, it’s the reason I think why people don’t use it more and why this industry is not as big as could be is because it’s very hard. But now with cutting edges that are there, it’s going to be very different.Guillaume: We’re going to see much more of this. So I think yes, industry there is going to be much larger in the future that we, these models. So yeah. Here also anticipating this a little bit, we wanted to work on that because it’s proving like a math theory and like a, essentially the same tools.swyx: Yeah.Reasoning Transfer and Agentsswyx: One of my theories is that because the proofs takes so long, it’s actually just a proxy for long horizon reasoning and coherence and planning. Maybe a lot of people will say okay, it’s for people who like math. It’s for being okay. It’s like a niche math language. Who cares? But actually, and you use this as part of your data mixture for [00:39:00] post-training and reasoning, actually, it might spike everywhere else.Yeah. And I think that’s un under explored or no one’s like really put out a definitive paper on how this generalizes.Guillaume: Yeah, absolutely. AndPavan: I think evenGuillaume: that’s what we’re seeing already. For instance, you should do some reasoning on math as then the American should do reason even.Yeah. In the early stage. So we, the, there is some transfer, some sort of emergence that happens. And I think some, it’s also interesting, it’s not just I think the topic in general, but it’s, there is a lot of connection with this on including agents because. Sometimes the model can see like a three that it has to prove it’s very complex, but then it can take the initiative to say, I’m going to prove this three lr.I’m going to suggest three Rs, and I’m going to in parallel prove each R. So three of them in parallel with sub agents, but I’m also going to prove them in theory and the three tool so you can do this also. Pretty interesting. You can, even if you fail to put one of the LeMar, you can actually, maybe you succeed to put the normal lema too, so you get some possible reward here.So it’s a bit less Spartan issue, just get to zero one for the entire thing. [00:40:00] So it’s pretty interesting. I think we can actually,Vibhu: yeah, it’s also an interesting case just for specialized models in general, right? Like the cost thing you show is pretty interesting yeah, similar score wise, you are, thirty, seventy, a hundred fifty, three hundred bucks.Smaller.swyx: I think cost is a bit unfair, right? ‘cause this one is at like inference cost. It’s always there on top with their margins on top of it. But, we don’t know anything else, so we gotta figure it out.Vibhu: Okay.Next Frontiers in TrainingVibhu: I did wanna actually push on that more. Not on cost, but you mentioned about, okay, it’s a great way to have verifiable long context reasoning.What are other frontiers that, I’m sure you guys are working on internally, there’s a lot of push of people pushing back on pre-training. Scaling, RL pushing, compute towards having more than half of your training budget. All on rl. Where are you guys seeing the frontier of research in that?Guillaume: You mean theVibhu: just in foundation model training in the next, one thing that you guys do actually is you do fundamental research from the ground up, right? So you probably have a really good look at where you can [00:41:00] forecast this out.Guillaume: Yeah. I think for us we’re still working a lot on the pre-training side.I think we are very far from situational, the pre-training. I think ML four preprinting will be like big step compared to everything we have done before. So we are pretty excited about this. And I think on the other side, I think now we have more and more to think about this algorithm that will actually support this very long trajectories.I think when it was, for instance, GRPO for it doesn’t really work this any bit of policy. Which was okay initially because you are solving math problem that can be solved in like a few thousand tokens. So the model can alize them pretty quickly. So when you do your update, the model is never too far off.It’s never too far off. But now when you are moving towards this kind of problems where certain takes hours, like six hours to get a reward, then your model is co pick places. So you have bi new infrastructure that supports this, but also new A, so now everything we’re doing internally, we’re trying to. Build some infra that we actually anticipate is what we have in six months, one now, which is this extremely no scenarios on the, I think when we started Missal, part of me and [00:42:00] we wanted to, is very nice under element where people are there, they can do research, they like with a lot of resources.So it was nice. I think things changed a lot when I think when J Pity came out. I think after that I think was. This one is same again. But but yeah, but it was nice. And I think we also want to work part of this descrip beforeswyx: coming to the end.Hiring and Team Footprintswyx: We’re just, obviously, I think you guys are doing incredible work.You’ve, they are a very impressive vision for open source and for voice. What are you hiring for? What’s the what are you looking for that you are trying to join the company?Guillaume: Yeah, so we are hiring a lot of people in our sense team. We’re hiring, in all our offices. So we have a, our H two is in France in Paris.We have a small team in London. We like a team in Pato as well. Co we open some offices in in SAU, in Poland. So one in Zurich. We also like some presence in New York as well on Sooner one in San Francisco. So we all bit either way also like hiring remotely. So we’re going the team trying to hire like very strong people.I think we want to stay, so the team is not. Instead of fairly small team. [00:43:00] But I think we want to keep it that way. ‘Cause we we find it quite efficient. So like a small team they agile so yeah.swyx: Okay.AI for Science Partnershipsswyx: Let’s focus on science and the forward deployed. We actually are strong believers in science.We started the our new science pod that focuses specifically on the air for science. What areas do you think are the most promis.Guillaume: What we’re pretty excited about right now, and something we have already started doing or that we’d probably be able to share more about this in a couple of months, is that we are exploring AI for science.And there are a lot of areas where we think that you could get some extremely promising buzz. If you were to apply AI in these domains. There are a lot of long inputs. You just have to find these domains where actually AI has not been yet applied, and it’s usually hard to do because the people working in those domains don’t necessarily know the capability of these models.They don’t know. How I would just have to pair them with Yeah, exactly. Your researcher slashing, which is actually hard to do. But this matching, we’re doing it naturally with our customers. So we have some company we are very closely with. So for instance, ISM Andreesen are one of our partners, so we’re doing some research with them on their other, like tons of extremely interesting problems.Columns in physics, in [00:44:00] science matter science that they’re essentially the only ones to work on. ‘cause they’re doing something No, no one else is doing on the, yeah. So there are many domains where AI can actually revolutionize things. Just you have to think about it on you familiar with what can do or to apply it.So yeah, it’s something where more modeling with our partners, with our customers sort AI for s, but.swyx: Yeah. Okay.Forward Deployed Skillsswyx: And then for deployed what it makes a good four deployed engineer, what do they need? Where do people fail?Guillaume: I think it’s usually you need people that are very familiar with the tech and not necessarily with a lot of research expertise, but that are actually pretty good at using this model that can actually like that know how to do functioning, that know how to like, start some error pipeline.And it’s it’s not easy. It’s something that mucus. Majority of companies will not be able to do this on their own. So here I think we need people that are, that like to solve problems that are accept solving some complex, very concrete problem. It’s applied science basically.And yeah, so I think it’s not too different. I think from the case you need in research because it’s essentially you are trying to find solutions to problems that in [00:45:00] customers have not yet. So sometimes it’s easy. Sometimes you’re here to do the work. You have to like create synthetic data.Find some edge case. So it can be, yeah. Depends on the problem. But but yeah, you have to, I think it also a bit of patience on the be creative. I think very similar skill is Asian,Pavan: the diversity of the work they do. It always surprises me. It’s it’s, it goes all the way from the kind of stuff they encounter in industries.It’s just very interesting. I think.swyx: Any fun like success anecdotes.Guillaume: Yeah, it can be actually training this small model on edge that just we do one specific thing can be like training some very large model without some specific languages as well. Making models really good at some tube use, like for instance, computer ID design, these kind of things.Is that pairing with vision as well? Yeah,Pavan: and the fact detection for chips or like in, in factories identifying things like it, the. Diversity could be anything where you can deploy these foundation models. So yeah the work to make it work in that specific setting, basically whatever it takes to make it like add value in that, by the way, workflow.Vibhu: Yeah. [00:46:00] And it goes across the stack, right? Like even just pulling up the website like.swyx: It’s so broad on compute. It is so broad.Vibhu: We didn’t even touch on if you have a coding CLI tool. One thing you guys were actually like, I think the first tool was agents, ral agents. You had the agent builder, you can serve it via API and all that.And I’m guessing forward deploy people.Guillaume: Yeah.Vibhu: Help build that out and stuff.Customer Feedback LoopGuillaume: It is also why we are, so we’re doing many things, but I think that’s also part of the value proposition that sometime know customers. They’re always very. Extremely careful about their data and they don’t want to, they don’t like, trusting so many partners, trusting one partner for code, giving the data to another third party for like audios and another one.So they don’t like this here. What they really like with our approach that we can help them on anything so they don’t have to send the data to so many clouds. So yeah,swyx: I think that there can be many orders of magnitude more. F Ds then research scientists and they don’t need your full experience, but they’re still super variable to customersGuillaume: in practice.These two teams [00:47:00] are still quite intertwine, very often. Yeah. So first of all, they’re using the same tools, the same data pipeline and everything on the, it’s it’s very helpful for the science team to get the feedback and the solution team ‘cause they can. Look at these customers are trying to do this.This is not working. It can really be show in the next version. Yeah. But this is basically a real world eval. Yeah, it’s real world eval and it’s not something, for instance, if you’re just working in the lab, it’s just ships model. But you don’t do this work of for customers. You have no idea for whether your model is good at this H case.For instance, you even in year found this, right? So yeah, there is a very gap, big gap between the public benchmarks that are very like academic. OnPavan: the rare cases are just very diverse and in the specific concept of a customer, you can fine tune and make it like first evaluate, create a solid eval, benchmark, and then measure in the context of their, the kind of audio.Like for instance, one use case is literally just, there’s the word for kids and they have to just say it out. It’s a very specific thing. You’re just saying one word and then you have to you, you’ll grade the kid whether they did it right or not. It’s [00:48:00] like R for, but so there’re very diverse use cases and the idea is that they, the.Applied scientist engineer will go and make it better. And then from the learnings we incorporate it into the base model itself. So it’s it’s just better out of the box.Vibhu: Yeah. It’s a good full circle system. Like the foundation model evals are all just proxies of what you really, you’re never gonna have one that says it, it doesn’t make sense for there to be, a one word transcription like that.It’s not something you wanna fit on. Perfect.Wrap Up and Thanksswyx: Everyone should go check out everything that Michelle has to offer and try the TTS model, which will link in the show notes. But thank you so much for coming tha thanks. Such a stretch. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• 🔬Why There Is No "AlphaFold for Materials" — AI for Materials Discovery with Heather Kulik 24.03.2026 35min

  Materials science is the unsung hero of the science world. Behind every physical product you interact was decades of research into getting the properties of materials just right. Your gym clothes contain synthetic fibers developed over decades. The glass screen, diodes, and chip substrate technology needed to read this blog post were only viable due to many teams of material scientists.Our guest Prof. Heather Kulik was one of the first material scientists to realize that there was alpha in combining computational tools with data driven modeling — she did AI for science before it was cool. She has a hard-fought perspective for how to succeed in this field. Yes, she believes the wins are real. To get there you must work hard to deeply integrate domain expertise with AI techniques, and also maintain a discriminating mind. Ultimately what matters is you succeed in the lab, and nature doesn’t care about how hyped a model is. These lessons personally resonated with the Latent.Space Science team and our own experience.This episode is a must watch for all aspiring AI for science practitioners. A few highlights:Designing new polymers with AI: Heather’s group recently used AI to design new polymers that are significantly stronger. These materials were created and tested in the lab, and the scientists who built them were surprised by the designs. The AI had figured out certain building blocks could break in a novel way. The AI discovered a purely quantum mechanical effect, and after convincing their lab collaborators to actually synthesize it, the material turned out to be four times tougher!The twenty-two-atom ligand challenge: When asked about the role and need of human scientists, Heather points out that AI has a strong understanding of academic chemistry, but is still lacking intuition. Every time an LLM is updated, Heather asks it to design a ligand that contains exactly twenty-two heavy atoms. She has yet to find one that can succeed at this seemingly simple task that any expert could do in a second! Is this the chemistry counterpart to counting ‘r’s in strawberry?Side note: Heather joked that this comment would date itself immediately, so we decided to see if this was still true three months after recording. We found some interesting results! We asked both Claude and ChatGPT to design a 22 atom ligand for both a metal-organic framework (MOF) and a Kinase protein. * For the Kinase, both models got it right: Claude pulled out RDKit in a python script and iterated on several designs, whereas ChatGPT just one-shotted it. * For MOFs, both models got it wrong, generating ligands with 21, 23, or 24 atoms, yet stubbornly not getting 22 atoms. Is there something different about how LLMs reason in the materials and bio domains?Materials vs biology: The two biggest domains of AI in science have been biology and materials. We asked Heather if there could be an AlphaFold moment for materials. Her answer reframes how we should think about the field:* First, the datasets in material science are woefully lacking in comparison to the bio world. The closest to ground truth in most cases are noisy DFT datasets. These are just approximations to the real world! The datasets that are accurate are all boring, as Heather quipped “We have really good datasets for really boring chemistry.” Furthermore, good experimental structures are hard to come by and require interpretation. So generating generating high-quality, novel datasets at scale would really drive the field forward.* More philosophically, AlphaFold is making predictions in a fairly limited space: there are just twenty amino acids. Sure, even here AlphaFold doesn’t get everything right, but it seems plausible that one could learn the entire design space. For materials, each element is a new set of interactions and chemistry, with little to no transferability. This is a massive open problem in material science that we hope some of the smartest AI scientists will want to work on!The difficulties of trusting the literature: Heather’s team has spent the last few years using NLP and later LLMs to extract data from literature. Even a few thousand data points from these papers can be valuable for guiding her group’s work. One surprising result: sometimes the reported values for a property (say temperature) do not match up with the graphs in the papers! So there’s lots of potential in using LLMs to mine data from the literature, just do it with care.The role of academia in an ever-changing world: One theme that has been running through many of our conversations has been the changing role of the academic — and the scientist — in science. When startups are raising $100s of millions and hyperscalers and Big Pharma are all ramping up AI-for-science efforts, the academic researcher needs both resources and judgement about problems to chase more than ever.Resources include data that is organized for machine learning, access to high throughput experimentation labs, and compute resources. These are all things that academics can build together. More importantly, Heather emphasizes curiosity about problems that haven’t hit the radar of the heavily capitalized AI companies. After so many years on the forefront of AI for Science, Heather’s judgement that Chemical Engineering and Material Science still need curious people asking questions with no clear path to money is a welcome beacon in the AI fog.Full Video podcast Is on Youtube! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe
• Dreamer: the Personal Agent OS — David Singleton 20.03.2026 1h 3min

  Mar 23 update for Latent Spacenauts: this episode was recorded before the Dreamer team announced they were joining Meta Superintelligence Labs, and it turned out to be the last interview they did before the news became public. Consider this a snapshot from just before the transition!In 2024, David Singleton left Stripe and joined forces with Hugo Barra for a buzzy stealth startup named /dev/agents. This month they emerged out as Dreamer, a consumer-first platform to discover, build, and use AI agents and agentic apps, centered on a personal “Sidekick” that helps users customize experiences via natural language. Sidekick is nothing less than an “agent that builds agents”, with all the complexity that that entails:You’ve seen many many website builder, app builder, and even agent builder startups by now, but our favorite detail is the sheer amount of work that has gone into the “full stack” nature of the platform, including shipping their own SDK, logging, database, prompt management, serverless functions, and so on. Most platforms restrict the tech stack you can use just to get off the ground — Dreamer does it “right” by letting you push whatever arbitrary code you want to their VMs.Paying the BuildersOf course former leaders of Stripe and Android would not stop at just building the tools, but also building the ecosystem. Dreamer is deeply aware of the 4 sided network effect it has going on and is ready to fund all of it.It’s time to Dream!Full Video Episodeon youtube.Transcript[00:00:00] Meet Dreamer Purple[00:00:00] swyx: Okay, we’re here in the studio with David Singleton. Welcome.[00:00:08] David Singleton: Hey, Wix. It’s great to be here.[00:00:09] swyx: It’s great to have you. Uh, we have very sympa that your company color is the same as Lean Spaces color.[00:00:15] David Singleton: That’s right. Dreamer Purple.[00:00:17] swyx: It used to be Devrel agents, which I thought was very cool. It’s like you call back to Devrel Payments.[00:00:22] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:00:22] swyx: And you were obviously CTO Stripe. And talk to me about just the origin or thinking process behind Dreamer. Yeah. And maybe, maybe start with like, what, what is Dreamer?[00:00:31] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:00:31] What Is Dreamer[00:00:31] David Singleton: So Dreamer is a new product, uh, which everyone can come and play with today. Um, it’s a place where everyone, literally, everyone can discover, build, and enjoy and use AI agents and agenda apps.[00:00:45] And we really did design it for consumers, for folks who are not necessarily. Uh, have any kind of technical background. It’s really aimed at everyone. I think often of my sister, she’s very smart. She’s not in the slightest bit technical. She has lots of problems in her life that [00:01:00] she would like to be able to have great software and intelligent software to solve.[00:01:04] But you know, even with the rise of tools like Cloud Code and so forth, she’s got no way to get started. And Dreamer is a place where she can come in, grab some intelligent apps that other people in the community have built, start using them right away, and solve real problems in her life.[00:01:19] Sidekick And Waitlist[00:01:19] David Singleton: And at the core, we have a personal agent called the Sidekick.[00:01:24] Um, you can give your sidekick a name, you can give it its own personality, and it really helps you across your entire day, your life. It helps you use all of the agents on the platform, and it also helps you build anything you want. And we’ve been working in this for a little while. We recently launched in beta.[00:01:41] So anyone can go to dreamer.com, join the wait list. Um, and we have many, many, many people in the community now who are building really fun, really powerful, really useful. Agents and the agentic apps for themselves.[00:01:54] swyx: I think we’re gonna go right into a demo. Yeah. I just wanna make an observation that, uh, you, you, [00:02:00] you put discover first before build.[00:02:02] Mm-hmm. But actually, at least for the engineers in the audience. ‘cause we are primarily engineers and you’re primarily targeting consumers, right?[00:02:08] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:02:08] swyx: For engineers. Like, there’s a huge full stack of stuff, which we’re gonna dive into. Let’s write. It’s so impressive. I’m like, holy s**t, this, this is what I’ve always wanted.[00:02:16] Cool. Uh, so, so I think that’s really good and I’ve, in some ways, I think given your background given, uh, Hugo’s, is it Hugo? Hugo.[00:02:24] David Singleton: Hugo. Hugo Bar. Yeah.[00:02:25] swyx: Hugo, it’s not surprising that you can basically kind of build an app store Yeah. For agents.[00:02:30] David Singleton: Yeah. So Hugo was my co-founder. Yeah. Um, Hugo and I met with our other co-founder Nicholas Checkoff in the very early days of Android at Google, where we were building Google’s first mobile apps.[00:02:41] Uh, we then contributed to very core pieces of Android itself. And you’re right, we were really excited about building two things. One, solving a bunch of problems. That this breakthrough technology here I’m talking about mobile needed to have solved in order to make it work for real people at scale. And then secondly, building this ecosystem, um, [00:03:00] of third party developers using the Play Store, um, and able to deliver way more value on the platform than we could have delivered on our own.[00:03:08] And we think about Dreamer in exactly the same way. So I was working at Stripe, as you mentioned, and we had the opportunity to put some of the very first AI agent systems in the world into production. And from the moment we did the first of those, I was just struck with a strong sense of conviction that this is breakthrough technology that’s gonna change how all of us work with computers and phones and so forth, all of the, the technology in our lives, but.[00:03:34] There’s a lot of problems to be solved, for real people to be able to make this approachable. Um, and it really is kind of a direct analog for what we were solving back in the early days of mobile apps at Google and, and Android. So it’s, it’s been fun to bring that to life.[00:03:47] swyx: Yeah. Uh, let’s look at it.[00:03:48] David Singleton: Yeah, let’s take a look.[00:03:49] Dashboard And Daily Briefing[00:03:49] David Singleton: So, uh, dreamer.com, this is our homepage. This is where you can come and, uh, watch some videos about what is here and sign up for the wait list. Once[00:03:57] swyx: you, I, I just wanna say for those listening, ‘cause we have a lot, you [00:04:00] know, switch to YouTube, look at the animations. So much care.[00:04:03] David Singleton: We, we really care about, uh, this product being fun.[00:04:07] Uh, and, and interesting to use. Obviously a lot of people are using it to do real important stuff. You can do real work, uh, here, uh, but also you can build fun things too. Once you get off of our wait list, you’ll come into the product. The first thing that happens is you’ll have a conversation with your side cake, which is this little friendly, uh, character here.[00:04:27] And psychic will seek to get to know you and understand you. What do you care about? And will help you discover and build your first AI agents or agentic apps. After that, you’re, you’re gonna have a dashboard. This is my dashboard. Everyone’s is different. Um, you can see I have a few things here. I have a feed.[00:04:42] So a lot of our agents do things in the background when you’re not looking and the feed is how they let you know what they’ve been up to. I have, uh, some widgets, uh, from apps that I have built. Uh, this one is called Calendar Hero. Uh, this is something that I installed from the gallery. Uh, so built by someone in our community.[00:04:59] It’s a [00:05:00] really powerful calendar app because for each of my meetings, if it’s with someone I don’t already know, well it’ll actually go off and research it, um, and give me both a history of my interactions with those people and also a bunch of, you know, public useful information to, to get started. One of the things I love about this particular app is that every day it generates a podcast, um, a daily briefing.[00:05:24] And one of the things that we’ve done with the platform is we’ve made it possible for all the things that agents do to show up in places that you care about. So if you look over here, this is the screen in my phone, and if I go ahead and open my Apple Podcasts, you can see right here. Your Daily briefing podcast is ready.[00:05:39] This was produced by an agent running in my Dreamer account, and it was very easy by scanning a QR code to connect it to my Apple podcast. That’s what I listened to in the car now every morning. Yeah. On my way to work.[00:05:50] swyx: It, it[00:05:50] David Singleton: preps me for, for my day.[00:05:52] swyx: So one additional bit of context. I asked you immediately after seeing this was like, what, what about, I wanna talk back to my agent and you said you actually started with voice and then you went to [00:06:00] podcasts.[00:06:00] ‘cause it’s nice to have it pre downloaded[00:06:02] David Singleton: that, right? That’s right. Um, yeah, we, you, you can talk to your sidekick. So, you know, on mobile we have, uh, a dreamer app and you can talk to the sidekick right here. Um, but we’ve actually found that making things, uh, show up in the other apps that you already use in your life is incredibly powerful.[00:06:19] So let’s take a look at what’s kind of under the hood here.[00:06:21] Gallery Tools And Payouts[00:06:21] David Singleton: So I already mentioned that we have a gallery, so this is where you’ll find a lot of agents from our community. Uh, there’s. Many at this point, hundreds. And they are solving all kinds of, uh, use cases. I’d say the the top use cases are on personal productivity, but also a lot of information management that can range from personal information like docs and so forth, managing your emails.[00:06:42] It also ranges out to public information that you might be interested in, but you need something to help manage the, the kind of fire hose of stuff that’s coming at you. For instance, I have, um, an agent which looks at all the AI news, um, all the time. There’s a lot of it and it finds the stuff that I would actually be [00:07:00] interested in, um, and I find it incredibly useful.[00:07:03] So these are agents that you can install that other people have built. Anything that you install on Dreamer, you can actually just say, I wanna start making some changes, and we’ll look at that in a second. But in natural language, with the sidekicks help, you can change any of these experiences to work just the way you want them.[00:07:18] But the base layer of the system are tools. So you know, as well as anyone swyx, that any AI system is only as good as the quality of data that it can pull in and the quality of action it can take. So before we launched our beta, we worked very hard to make sure that we seeded our tools with a bunch of very high quality and powerful integrations.[00:07:39] So, you know, for instance, this is real Google search, this is actual Gmail. Um, and you can do very useful things with those. But also this is a platform for everyone. And as we got started talking to people in our alpha community, a whole bunch of sports use cases popped out and we realized if you want to build something cool for sports with ai, you need really high quality live data.[00:07:58] So look at these [00:08:00] Formula one M-L-B-N-F-L, uh, these are tools, uh, that we’ve built. We’ve done a, these are not data scraped off the web. This is a, a direct data feed integration. And because it’s live and ‘cause it’s high quality, you can build really powerful stuff. But tools is not something that we are just going to kind of control ourselves.[00:08:19] The platform is open for tool Builders to contribute tools that anyone on Dreamer can use. So, um, this is actually the place in the platform where I think software engineers, um, well number one, would love for you to come and play with it. Uh, but software engineers are really gonna build, um, a lot of powerful stuff into the system.[00:08:38] And we are actually sharing something for the first time on this podcast, which there is, uh, tool builders on Dreamer get paid. So if you publish a tool to the platform and a lot of agents use it, you’ll actually get paid, uh, in proportion to their usage. And we’d love for folks to come and give this a try.[00:08:54] We’ve got good docs that help you get started and you can build things that, you know, scratch your own itch. For instance, someone built this [00:09:00] Ski Bum tool, which provides live snow conditions for a bunch of, uh, ski resorts. I’d love to show you how I’ve used that in a second. And also we have some tools, partners where the tools themselves are paper use.[00:09:12] So for instance, parallel web systems is a premium tool. Uh, you can do really cool stuff with it. Um, it’s a a, an agentic web research tool. And that one, because it’s expensive to operate, is paid on a, on a per usage basis. But if you’re coming in to build agents on the platform, even the premium tools, you get a free trial.[00:09:29] So you get a chance to actually try them out, make sure that the use case is good for you before you decide to, to to sign up. So that’s tools. So we have the gallery, we have tools, and then the sidekick helps us put all of this together to build agents. We do that in the agents studio. You can also do this on your phone, but if I open up Agent Studio here on Desktop psychic’s, just gonna start a conversation about what you want to build together.[00:09:51] I’d love to show you one that I made recently.[00:09:53] swyx: Let’s do[00:09:53] David Singleton: it.[00:09:53] Building A Conference App[00:09:53] David Singleton: Um, let’s look at something that hopefully is kind of near and dear to your heart. So one of the things I love about Dreamer and this kind of moment in technology is that if you think about it. There are all these things in your life where, have you ever gone to a conference?[00:10:09] I know you have. Right? And, uh, big conferences have apps. Um, and these apps are usually built by agencies and they’re, they’re usually actually quite expensive to build. I’ve been involved in running some of these myself. And how many conferences have you been to where the app was good? Zero. Honestly.[00:10:23] swyx: Exactly. Zero,[00:10:24] David Singleton: maybe one. I, I’ve, I’ve been to one conference. That was pretty good. Wait, wait session sessions. Um, but, but the point is, they’re rarely great pieces of software. Right. And they’re also expensive to build, but they’re, they’re interesting ‘cause they’re episodic, they last for this one thing. Um, and then they’re, they’re not relevant anymore.[00:10:43] Um,[00:10:43] swyx: and so it’s the worst feeling to invest in them because, you know, it’s like, it’s got a limited. Date?[00:10:48] David Singleton: Absolutely. So I decided to build, uh, a conference app for your AI engineer conference. Amazing. Uh, on Dreamer. One of the things that Swix has done, uh, which I [00:11:00] thought was very forward-looking, is actually put a whole bunch of data about the conference on the webpage in an LLM readable way.[00:11:06] There’s an LLMs txt file, there’s a feed of all of the sessions in js, ON. So I used the data from your conference last year and built this intelligent app, uh, just by talking to our sidekick, uh, in Dreamer. So just to give you a quick tour, this is my Dream Conference app. What I always wanna do for conferences is I wanna be able to search for speakers.[00:11:28] I’m usually there because, uh, there, uh, is a speaker I care about. So, you know, SWIX, you’re the speaker I care about. I can actually see here who you’re on stage with. So here’s, here’s Greg Brockman. You’ve read even ai, uh, and this is his session. And look Greg and Swix for the speaker. So let’s add that to my schedule.[00:11:45] Great. And then maybe there’s a couple others I might see here. Like on day two, I remember there were some keynotes. So, uh, building the open agenda web, that sounds fun. So I add that to my schedule.[00:11:55] swyx: She’s now CEO of Xbox.[00:11:56] David Singleton: Awesome.[00:11:57] swyx: Which is interesting. So cool. So,[00:11:59] David Singleton: so I’ve [00:12:00] gone through and picked out a couple of sessions that I cared about.[00:12:03] That’s as far as I usually get with any conference app. But of course you’ve got the whole of the rest of the conference to figure out what to do. So here is where the native intelligence of, of these things you build on Dreamer can come in. So I’m gonna click guide me. So Dreamers sidekick actually parsed out the whole schedule and figured out what some of the themes are and I can choose what I’m interested in here.[00:12:23] I’m definitely interested in agents. Uh, I’m definitely interested in code generation and also reasoning in rl. So now I’m gonna say build my schedule. So what this is doing is. It’s going across every time slot for the conference. And it’s choosing among the things I could go to, which one it thinks is best for me based on my interests.[00:12:41] It also uses its own memory of me that’s part of Dreamer, uh, to understand what I might like best. And you know, there’s an LLM prompt running for each one of these time slots. So this is, it’s not super fast, but it’ll be done in about 30 or 40 seconds. And I’m gonna have a special custom schedule for the conference.[00:12:57] This, like I said, is my [00:13:00] dream conference app is exactly what I’ve always wanted and I was able to build this yesterday morning. Um, I did it between some meetings. I think I spent a total of 25 minutes of wall clock time on it. I did it over the course of a couple of hours. And, uh, here is my schedule for the conference.[00:13:15] I can see it in a calendar view. This is what I should do on Tuesday, this is what I should do on Wednesday. Oof, no conflicts, but, you know, I may not go to every single thing. And there you have it built in, you know, dreamer. So let’s take a look at what the building experience actually looks like. So this is the, the actual account that I made it on.[00:13:32] Oh, of course I should say anything you build on Dreamer also works on your phone. So, uh, here is my AI engineer conference app right here on my phone. Got all the same functionality, and of course this is the best place to jump into my schedule.[00:13:46] swyx: Yeah.[00:13:46] David Singleton: Um,[00:13:46] swyx: so you could generate a podcast about it just completely multimodal, absolute thing, right?[00:13:51] To me, I mean, this is why I outsource, I mean, well, I, I posted the L-M-T-X-T, the JSON because you cannot run an engineer conference in 2025 [00:14:00] and not let engineers. Do whatever they want.[00:14:02] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:14:03] swyx: And since all conference apps suck, I’m just gonna put up a ba minimum viable app and just let people do whatever they want.[00:14:09] David Singleton: Totally. And the cool thing about this on Bremer is I published this to the gallery and you can use it so you’ve got one that’s built to my taste of conference apps. I think it’s pretty cool. But you might want something different. Yeah. In which case you just start telling the sidekick how to change it.[00:14:23] So let’s just very quickly look[00:14:24] swyx: at our, what sports grid is also, you can fork it, right? That I can publish. That’s right. I can publish your one and go, this is the base starter. It’s, it’s got good defaults, but go customize, whatever.[00:14:32] David Singleton: That’s right. That’s right.[00:14:33] swyx: Yeah.[00:14:33] Agent Studio Under The Hood[00:14:33] David Singleton: So let’s take a look at how I actually built this.[00:14:34] This is real. So I’m gonna say make changes. This experience we’re looking at now is our, uh, agent development studio. Um, like I said, you can do this on your phone as well. And in fact, this one I started out on desktop. Let’s look at my actual prompts. I said, let’s make an agent called AI Engineer Schedule Planner should be a custom schedule planner for the AI engineer conference.[00:14:53] I’m not gonna read this all up. You get, you get the point and it told it where to get the data from. So that was the first prompt. And actually after I gave it that [00:15:00] prompt, I actually had a simple version of this app working, um, after the sidekick took one turn. So the Sidekick is a, like a professional software engineer, and we’ve worked very hard to make this work and build functional apps for folks that might not have any engineering experience whatsoever.[00:15:14] So, you know, done here we have build logs that are technical, but you can hide those away. And sidekick, as it is building, will actually translate everything that is coming out of, uh, of the, the harness into English that you can actually read. And by the way, this English is in the personality of your sidekick, which is fun.[00:15:32] Um. And the way that we build agents and agent apps, it’s a little different to what you might have seen in some other platforms for a couple of reasons. One, just the build process. The very first thing that Sidekick does, it understands all the agents you’ve got set up. It understands all the tools and it will come up with a plan for how to realize your goal, how to make sure it actually has the data and the capabilities to complete it.[00:15:54] It will occasionally refuse. If it can’t do what you’re asking, it will tell you I can’t do that. It needs another tool. And that’s a good [00:16:00] jumping off point for any of the tool builders out there to build a new tool. So it’ll fi first figure out how, then it will build it, and then it will actually test it.[00:16:07] So it will actually make sure that the thing that it has generated is realizing your goal. And you probably know as well as anybody that anytime you can get any. Modern state-of-the-art coding model into a loop where it can make changes and perceive its own output and then fix bugs. Magic happens. So these builds, the first build will often take 10 to 15 minutes on Dreamer, which is a little bit longer than you might’ve seen on some other platforms.[00:16:31] But the first thing that it creates will work most of the time. And then of course, as you start making smaller changes, you can like ask it to tweak the UI in any way that you like. Those are much faster. And just to give you a sense, uh, for this one, here’s something I asked. Put a logo, I gave it a logo file in static files.[00:16:48] Use that as the title. So for folks that actually really want to dig, uh, into a bit more detail, we’ve provided a powerful IDE here. So I can actually see here’s the code that was generated and some pieces of the [00:17:00] code are more accessible than others, like the prompts. So this is the prompt that’s used by a powerful LLM in order to do that schedule picking.[00:17:08] And I can actually read it here directly. I can edit it without having to ask the sidekick if I want to do that.[00:17:12] swyx: So this is very nice.[00:17:13] David Singleton: This is for the more, the more, uh, sophisticated users.[00:17:16] swyx: Yeah. This is other people’s entire startup is prop management.[00:17:21] David Singleton: This is true. The other thing that is different about Dreamer is once you’ve built something here, it’s ready to go.[00:17:28] We host it. So you don’t have to worry about getting a database from a database provider signing up, getting API keys. You don’t have to worry about your LLM provider tokens. All of that is hosted on the platform. And you can use it yourself. You can share it to the gallery for other people to, to riff on it.[00:17:46] You can also share it with your friends and coworkers to use your instance of the agent or agentic app. And we’re seeing that happen a lot in our community. We’ve seen a whole bunch of folks who built little applications for their personal life [00:18:00] and shared them with their significant other. We’ve seen people who are building little productivity apps for their team at work and sharing it, uh, among them.[00:18:07] And we actually do this a lot inside of the company. So at this point we, we pretty much run the company on Dreamer agents for all kinds of important things. Uh, maybe a good example of that is, um, our wait list. People are signing up every time someone signs up for our wait list. A dreamer agent will actually research, uh, that person.[00:18:25] And we’re looking for folks who are builders, not super technical to build agents and come in, uh, and give us a lot of feedback and we’re prioritized bringing those people off of the wait list First,[00:18:35] swyx: just a quick question on that one is there’s, it may not come up again. Do you find enrichment APIs to be useful like the ZoomInfo?[00:18:42] Uh, clear bit[00:18:43] David Singleton: enrichment is a very, uh, common use case. Um, on dreamer. Any application on Dreamer can kick off a sub-agent to do a particular task. Um, so this actually is a powerful agentic harness that runs inside of its own [00:19:00] vm. Uh, we call them sidekick tasks ‘cause they actually run in the context of the sidekick.[00:19:04] I’ll talk more about Sidekick in a second and. Enrichment is a very common use case. And the cool thing about a sidekick task is that it has access to all the tools on the platform, but also public data as well. And so very frequently enrichment on our platform happens using public data that it can be found in the web.[00:19:24] There are some tools for getting people data, uh, from, uh, from various bespoke systems. And so that works pretty well. But actually, you’d be surprised. I mean, we would love if someone out there would like to build a ZoomInfo tool, we don’t have one today. We’d love to see that on the platform, and I’m sure it’ll be very powerful.[00:19:39] But we’re also seeing that this powerful agent harness can pull a lot of data in on that note of tools that make experiences better, we’re constantly adding more tools because people in the community are building them and publishing them. We review the tools carefully and then they go live for everybody.[00:19:54] Yesterday we added granola. And that was pretty cool. So I was talking to actually, uh, Sarah on my team was [00:20:00] talking to, uh, someone building on the platform this morning and they actually, they have an agentic app that they built, which is a kind of magic to-do list. So they put stuff on their to-do list and for each thing it kicks off one of these, uh, sidekick tasks to figure out how to move the ball forward thing.[00:20:14] Sometimes it’ll complete it[00:20:15] swyx: entirely. Yeah.[00:20:16] David Singleton: Often by calling another agent on the platform and sometimes it just kind of researches it and helps ‘em take the first step.[00:20:21] swyx: Yeah. Do you know, this is Sam Altman’s number one, ask for an AI app. It’s the self-completing to-do list.[00:20:26] David Singleton: Yeah. The self-completing to-do list is something that a lot of people have built on Dreamer and are getting a lot of use out of.[00:20:32] Yeah. And, and finding it actually genuinely I shouldn’t, I should, I should try that. Mm-hmm. Please do. And you’ll even find some in the gallery that you can remix. So he was saying this morning that he’s, he built this self completing to-do list, uh, on Dreamer already. But he connected the granola tool yesterday and now something really magical happens, which is when he says in meetings that he’s gonna do a thing, it magically shows up on his to-do list and then it can magically get completed.[00:20:56] And then, as I mentioned, all the agents, all the [00:21:00] apps on Dreamer can actually work together. So our coding agent, as it builds them, does something very special where it exposes the internals of each of the experiences to the system. And then Sidekick can manipulate those to get stuff done. So he has built another agent, which he uses for recruiting.[00:21:18] It kind of keeps track of candidates and also it’s got a kinda mini CRM function, so he’s able to introduce candidates to each other. He told us this morning that something he’d committed to do in a meeting that was recorded on granola yesterday showed up in his magic to-do list and his magic to-do list.[00:21:34] It was like introduce a person for recruiting, used his recruiting agent to get it done.[00:21:39] swyx: Ah,[00:21:39] David Singleton: um, and this is, this is the dream. This is why we started the company. It really is the case that you can build and use these very powerful, bespoke experiences that can automate your life by working together. And I’d love to talk a little bit about how they work together.[00:21:55] Ecosystem Trust And Monetization[00:21:55] David Singleton: So obviously it’s really cool to have [00:22:00] software that will work on your behalf, but it’s only useful if you can trust it, right? So privacy and security is very important to us making these things accessible and. While also being trustworthy is hard. So the model that we have, which is working very well, is that the sidekick is at the core of everything here.[00:22:22] So it is both your companion, your helper, but it’s also the traffic cup in the system. So when, when one agent wants to work with another agent and dreamer, it doesn’t do it directly, it does it via the sidekick, well ask the sidekick to do the thing. And the sidekick understands both everything, all the expectations that have been set with me as a user about what agents can do, which tools I’ve given them permission to use.[00:22:45] And it will make sure that whatever is is going on is actually aligned with my own interests. And you know, that’s part of the background that I bring to this problem domain. I’ve. Worked for years, uh, keeping very important information, safe and secure. And [00:23:00] so as we started to think about this problem, we realized that we actually had to build something that’s a bit like an operating system.[00:23:06] You know, the sidekicks, like the kernel, the agents and apps are like users. Yeah. Different rings. Exactly. Because if you try to pick off just one piece of this, you can’t actually make it work for people at scale. Uh, because you could build little vibe coded apps, but they’re gonna grab all your data willy-nilly.[00:23:23] They won’t be able to work together. You actually have to invest in the fundamental core in order to make it work well for people. And that’s what we’ve been doing and it’s, uh, it’s been a lot of fun. One other thing I wanted to mention is, um, I’ve obviously talked about two things, tools and agentic apps.[00:23:42] We really designed Dreamer to be an ecosystem and a platform, and one of my favorite quotes about platforms, I think it’s from Bill Gates, is that you can only be a platform. If you create more value for the folks participating and using the platform than, than the platform itself creates. [00:24:00] And that’s our goal here.[00:24:01] So we at every step have been thinking about how do we make sure that other people are deriving even more value from Dreamer than we are? So in that vein, I already mentioned tool builders get paid and people can build agents that solve their needs and share them with others, and we are already thinking about ways that they can actually monetize those as well.[00:24:24] Against that backdrop, one of the things that we are launching today is our Builders in Residence program. So there are tons of people building really cool stuff and contributing it to the gallery already, but we’ve been really inspired by programs we’ve seen at other companies where artists might be in residence, people that are very creative.[00:24:43] And might have ideas outside of what the, the folks at the company or in the ecosystem already have. And so we are looking for creative people who have fun ideas and, you know, want to really figure out how to apply their creativity at the cutting edge [00:25:00] of technology today to come and work with us. So, uh, if you go to dreamer.com/latent space, you’ll find, ooh, well, we love Latent space.[00:25:09] Uh, you’ll find a link both to, uh, our tool Builder information and our builder in residence program. And for builders and residents, we’ll let you in off the wait list quickly, build an agent, and then for a small number of, of the most creative folks, we’re going to pay you to build agents. Uh, you can work directly with our team.[00:25:29] You know, this is like building Legos. So, you know, we’ve got some of the basic blocks together already, but if you need a Ron steering wheel and we don’t have one already, like we’ll build it for you. Yeah. Um, we really want to be inspired by, by these, uh, these builders in residence.[00:25:43] swyx: This Legos thing is pretty common as an analogy.[00:25:46] And there’s a, there’s a thing I call the master builder. Uh, we, the actual Lego company has master builders that they employ Yeah. To inspire people and post on socials.[00:25:56] David Singleton: That is exactly what inspired us as well. Honestly, we talked about the Lego Master [00:26:00] Builder program, so that’s our builder in residence program.[00:26:02] swyx: Yeah.[00:26:03] David Singleton: Um, and then, uh, finally back on, on tools. Like I said, anyone can come in and build tools today. If you follow the latent space link dreamer.com/latent space, again, we’ll get you off. Directly off the wait list. So you can build right away, you can monetize by publishing onto the platform. That’s for everyone, the very best tool that gets added to the platform by mid-April.[00:26:23] Uh, we have a $10,000 prize that we want to give out really, because we just want to seed the creativity of everyone out there. So we’re excited to do that.[00:26:31] swyx: Yeah. And you know, uh, this is completely a flywheel, right? Like the more tools, the more builders, the more the third thing agents, you know, it just feeds into each other.[00:26:39] David Singleton: That’s right.[00:26:39] swyx: Yeah. Just on the payments thing, because we probably won’t touch on that again, but I have to ask the former CTO Stripe on payments as presumably you’re using Stripe Connect.[00:26:48] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:26:48] swyx: Um. Any pain points that you’re, people are very interested in agent commerce and micropayment and all these things.[00:26:55] Presumably stable coins get into a conversation at some point, but maybe not now.[00:26:58] David Singleton: Yeah, we are [00:27:00] really, really excited about e agent commerce. The first step we are taking is help people in the world who have never been able to build these kind of experiences and software before to build stuff that meets their passions, share it with the world and get paid.[00:27:14] So that’s all commerce that happens on our platform, and so we don’t need anything new to facilitate that. Stripe Connect has existed for quite a while and is the perfect solution for this kind of stuff, so, um, we we’re excited about that. First and foremost, however. A lot of the things that people are already doing on Dreamer, we just talked about a self-completing to-do list.[00:27:34] A lot of the ways that you want to complete to-dos is by actually closing the loop in the real world, and that’s going to involve the exchange of value. So we have some folks that are building tools already that actually do have money move in order to, to complete that, that loop. So far, we just want to be open and agnostic to all the protocols out there.[00:27:54] I honestly think this moment in time is a little bit like the early web. So I personally started coding as a kid [00:28:00] and I think I got access to the internet in about 19 95, 19 96. And back then, uh, the web existed, you know, HTTP was a protocol, but there were also other protocols I was using all the time, like Gopher and UUCP and uh, various others.[00:28:15] So the point is like the web, HTTP and HTML. Was just one among many protocols. And of course it became the winner and it’s awesome. Yeah. Um, but the others were also kind of interesting and viable at the time as well. And I think the world of agentic commerce is like this right now. Also,[00:28:30] swyx: acp.[00:28:31] David Singleton: Acp, exactly.[00:28:32] All the, all the cps, you know, on Dreamer. We hope that folks will build tools that kinda make use of all of these things, but I’m sure that at a certain point. One or two will emerge as the winners, and then we’ll be able to build like really deep support in,[00:28:44] swyx: yeah. This is like maybe a complete tangent, but I do think about how a lot of these companies in AI companies in particular have to switch from c based to usage based because of course, but then, then they end up, end up having to sort of [00:29:00] obscure the margins a little bit and then they inventing end up inventing their equivalent of rob robots.[00:29:04] David Singleton: Mm-hmm.[00:29:04] swyx: Uh, where they’re like, well, okay, well every company should have their own currency. And it’s, it’s like very short lead to a token.[00:29:11] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:29:11] swyx: Or, and I’m like, okay, well where does this end? I can’t really play out the next step as to like, is this chaos? Is this,[00:29:18] David Singleton: yeah.[00:29:18] swyx: Okay.[00:29:18] David Singleton: Well, I think it is kind of like the wild west.[00:29:21] I don’t mean that in a completely, it’s all completely disorganized way, but there’s just so many things that could happen from here. The Overton window is very wide, right? Not far how this might land. And I’m just very excited to be building a platform that can take advantage of all of those opportunities and we’re just gonna be there.[00:29:36] Uh, working for our users to make sure that things that emerge work,[00:29:39] swyx: you’re gonna own the consumers, you’re gonna be up the OS for the app store for everything.[00:29:43] David Singleton: So one of the ways to think about this is, um, dreamer actually uses all of the state-of-the-art models as a user. You don’t have to think about should I be using, you know, Opus four six, or should I be using the five four model from [00:30:00] OpenAI?[00:30:00] We are continually doing evals and so forth to make sure that the best things are there for you. You can just build on the platform and know that as the world ships around, you’re gonna get the right stuff for you. Um, and I think that’s something that is needed to actually have folks take advantage of this technology at scale.[00:30:19] I’d love to show you another example of something I built.[00:30:21] swyx: Let’s do it.[00:30:22] David Singleton: This is another example of software that just lasts for a certain moment in time. So recently I went on a ski trip with a bunch of friends,[00:30:31] ski[00:30:31] David Singleton: Bum. Uh, so it uses ski bum. Yes. I went on a ski trip to Big Sky. I’d never been there before.[00:30:38] And I made this little intelligent app for us. And you can see it says it’s loading big sky conditions. So it’s actually calling the Ski Bum tool that I just showed you, which is, uh, published in our, uh, in our gallery. So what is this? This is a little app that was just for our weekend trip. It shows the current status of all the lifts of Big Sky.[00:30:54] Using that tool from the ecosystem, it shows the forecast for the upcoming weekend. It shows our [00:31:00] accommodation. This is just like where my group was staying. This is just for us and also a bunch of dining information that one of our friends, uh, put together who, who’s an expert on Big Sky. So I was able to take this app, share the link with my friends.[00:31:12] They weren’t on Dreamer yet, just send it to them on iMessage and they get a version they can use on their phone. And of course, here’s the real kicker. So I’ve been on ski trips before and other weekend adventures with my friends. Yeah, people pay for different things and at the end of the weekend it’s always a pain to figure out who needs to pay, who to settle up.[00:31:29] So we use this during the weekend. We added all of our expenses in here. Uh, too close are it’s drill data. It’s only too closely. And then at the end of the trip, we press split. And we’re, we settled up and we’re done. So there’s another dreamer. This was all through dreamer. So the, the actual payment? No, no.[00:31:47] We, it happened because, because we paid for stuff in the real world, it was like, okay, this person needs to pay that person 20 bucks. Right? Right. This person already paid in that. Right. So it just helped us all settle up. We didn’t move the money on Dreamer. You could do that. And in fact, if you’re a tool builder [00:32:00] thinking about this and getting excited, like come build a tool to do that stuff.[00:32:02] We really think of our tool builders as design partners.[00:32:05] swyx: Yeah. I got, I got the tool. Uh, what, like, I hate, I use Bank of America. I hate bank, I hate the app. Mm-hmm. I hate the web. All banking websites just horrible.[00:32:13] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:32:13] swyx: So just build me, like build a thing on top of Plaid.[00:32:15] David Singleton: Yeah. Right. And then just So[00:32:17] swyx: five code by banking app,[00:32:18] David Singleton: there’s already a tool for that.[00:32:20] Oh. So, um, attain Finance is a tool, a builder in our community built. Okay. Um, and it uses a secure system like Plaid. To access your, uh, financial data and you can build powerful personal finance agents on Dreamer today using this tool. And like I said, we review tools carefully. So when bringing Attain Finance onto the platform, we did actually quite a detailed security review with that company to make sure that if folks build stuff with it, it’s, it’s gonna work well.[00:32:49] So yeah, check that out. I think, uh, I’m, I’m pretty certain it connects to Bank of America. So you’ll be able to build the, the app that you wanted already?[00:32:55] swyx: Yeah. There’s a couple of points I wanted to sort of dive in on, maybe highlight to folks, [00:33:00] because I, obviously, I spent more time with Dreamers. So we’re making a point where you choose on behalf of your users because they’re meant to be consumers.[00:33:07] So maybe less technical,[00:33:08] David Singleton: right?[00:33:08] swyx: But obviously people can, how users can override. If you read that’s, but it’s not just lms, it is also the, the transcription. It, it’s like all, like there’s, there’s a first party curated set of here’s the house opinion. That’s right. On what?[00:33:21] David Singleton: That’s[00:33:21] swyx: right. The thing is, that’s right.[00:33:22] Is what’s the list? Is there like,[00:33:24] David Singleton: yeah, so actually if you look in the tool gallery, the first party kind of curated set are all the ones that have these grayscale icons. So we have a built in tool for image understanding, for image generation, for RSS, exploration, text to speech and so forth.[00:33:38] swyx: Recipes.[00:33:39] David Singleton: Uh, we actually do have a built in recipes tool.[00:33:41] It turns out that a lot of people in our alpha wanted to do stuff for cooking. Yeah. Um, and you know, you can scrape the web to get good recipes, but we were able to quite quickly find a good repository of recipes. It works great here. Yeah.[00:33:55] Stable Tool Interfaces[00:33:55] David Singleton: So the point behind these though is that we’ll keep the interfaces stable, so they’ll always work.[00:34:00] But you know, the best translation model and, you know, there are people using this translation tool to translate Chinese podcasts into English. It’s, it’s pretty powerful. It can deal with very long text, but the best translation tool today might be different from the best translation tool sometime next year.[00:34:15] And we’re just gonna make sure that that translation tool is always pretty close to state of the art. So you can build something and you know it’s gonna continue to work well. Of course, some of our tools are branded. You may actually have a preferred way of buying groceries, like maybe you prefer Instacart and that’s great.[00:34:29] You can use the Instacart tool specifically.[00:34:31] swyx: Yeah.[00:34:32] Partnerships And Ecosystem[00:34:32] swyx: Your partnerships, uh, I mean, I don’t know if you ever hit of partnerships, but this is gonna be a bonanza for anyone on to do deals.[00:34:38] David Singleton: We have an amazing person who, uh, works on all of our partnerships. Um, and it’s part of what you have to do to build a platform like this that’s gonna work for people.[00:34:46] Like, we’ve gone and done that. Schlep has a lot of work, one talks lots of different companies, um, in order to make sure that you’ve got good tools at the core.[00:34:54] swyx: Yeah.[00:34:54] David Singleton: And then of course, because we’re open to tool builders contributing to the platform, this is only gonna get better and better and [00:35:00] better.[00:35:00] swyx: Yeah.[00:35:01] Agent Lab Routing Layer[00:35:01] swyx: One observation I have this, this is gonna master a thesis I’ve been pursuing, which is, uh, what I’ve been calling an agent lab[00:35:05] David Singleton: mm-hmm.[00:35:06] swyx: Where you sort of different than a model lab in, in, in the sense that you never train your own models, but you are the router evaluation layer, ex subject domain expert for choosing between, uh, models.[00:35:18] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:35:18] swyx: And you’re explicitly doing these things. And so like in my sort of construction, every agent lab does some version of this where like, here’s the image understanding endpoint and we will route for you and don’t worry about it. Yeah. Sally, I think it’s kind of cool.[00:35:32] David Singleton: I, I think it makes total sense. Um, and again, to make this work for folks that don’t follow the AI news every day, it’s an actually, it’s a, it’s a really important thing to do.[00:35:42] Yeah. And it, it’s been, it’s been a real pleasure. I mean, I’m a, I’m personally a total geek for this stuff. I love it. And being able to go and dive into all those details in order to make it work well for other people. It’s a true pleasure. I cannot imagine working at anything else right now. It’s just so much fun.[00:35:56] swyx: The tricky part is multimodality when some of these things do [00:36:00] merge.[00:36:00] David Singleton: Mm-hmm.[00:36:01] swyx: And you are, you’re sort of, this is your imposing structure on things that fundamentally don’t want to be structured. And so sometimes that might work against you, but for 99% of these cases, this is fine.[00:36:10] David Singleton: Yeah. I mean, I think it’s gonna be very interesting to see how the, the, the world matures because a lot of the power of dreamer is the ability to kick off these subagents, so these powerful agent harnesses, which can actually change how they work based on the data.[00:36:25] I actually think that we will be able to. Kind of keep up with and stay at the forefront of the changing landscape of how tools and systems work together. And that’s, that’s new. You know, software didn’t used to work like this and now it does. Um, so even, even just figuring out how to design the right pri to make that possible has itself be a lot of fun.[00:36:44] Builders Can Publish Tools[00:36:44] swyx: This is, is a sort of maybe two part question that why can’t streamer make its own tools? And then why don’t you let you builders maybe stand up their own routing group? I call this a routing group, right? Like where it’s like collect Yeah. Things.[00:36:58] David Singleton: So two things, to [00:37:00] some extent, dreamer does make its own tools in that agents appear to the system as tools.[00:37:05] So they can be, they can be used to accomplish things. So you can build an agent that is essentially a tool. Yeah. Um, and it it,[00:37:12] swyx: which is to me very useful for reuse.[00:37:14] David Singleton: Right.[00:37:14] swyx: Right. Exactly. ‘cause I, I like, this is the way I like it. Now my next five apps, I don’t want to do this whole series of back and forth again.[00:37:20] David Singleton: Right.[00:37:21] swyx: Yeah.[00:37:21] David Singleton: Um. Then at the tool layer of the system, it’s open to anyone. So it’s actually quite powerful and flexible. So if you wanted to add a tool, which was, uh, imagine that you were training your own foundation model, Swyx. That might be fun. And imagine you wanted people to be able to play with, I don’t know, maybe you make like, you know, nano chat or whatever and you want to Yeah.[00:37:42] Let people play with your own nano chat and see how I change themselves.[00:37:44] swyx: Now.[00:37:45] David Singleton: You could, you could publish a tool that is Nano Chat and it nano image generation behind a tool, and it could be your own writer if you wanted to. I see. And honestly, if that’s the kind of thing that gets you excited as a builder, please come and do it.[00:37:57] Like we, we really are [00:38:00] believers in this idea that we aren’t going to figure out every single detail ourselves. We’re gonna make sure it’s a safe and fun place to build this stuff, but we’re really open to these ideas coming from other people. Um, and so I’d like nothing more than you come in and build a tool that does some of that cool stuff that you, that you have in mind.[00:38:15] swyx: Yeah. Awesome.[00:38:16] David Singleton: And just as a reminder, if you’d like to do that, the way to find the links is dreamer.com/latent space. Um, and for a limited time on that page, um, anyone who’s listening to this podcast will also get directly off of our wait list. Uh, it’s quite long right now. We are working hard to bring Zika.[00:38:32] Wait, so skip the wait list.[00:38:33] swyx: You know, I think, I think that’s fantastic. I, I think it’s, it is really sort of probuild way to do it. I wanted to jump back to the, the bar. Yeah. You know, you know, I get excited about this.[00:38:41] David Singleton: Yes. Okay. Let’s set it back in there.[00:38:43] swyx: Like, let’s, you know, this is the engineer podcast that’s get[00:38:46] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:38:46] swyx: As technical as you can.[00:38:47] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:38:47] swyx: On everything you’ve built, like have a show off.[00:38:50] David Singleton: Yeah. Okay.[00:38:51] Under The Hood Debugging[00:38:51] David Singleton: So let’s go wild in the aisles in the Asian studio. So as you can see, over on the left here is a conversation with the sidekick where you ask it what to do and it will explain in English that anyone can understand what’s going on.[00:39:03] But, um, if you want to pull back the covers and look under the hood, um, if you’re, uh, an engineer like me, then we have this, uh, this kind of debug drawer at the bottom. So you can see the full build logs here, but you can actually also dig in and see the files and prompts that have been generated. Uh, you can upload files from your computer in static files.[00:39:24] Um,[00:39:24] swyx: very important,[00:39:25] David Singleton: uh, indeed. You can actually read the prompts that have been generated for you. We intentionally put an example in here just that you can see what the format looks like. And then, you know, we already looked at this one that was generated for this particular, um, app, but if you actually want to bring the code out of Dreamer and work on your own local machine, you can.[00:39:45] So at the core of everything here is an SDK with a powerful command line interface and we built that first. It’s actually possible to build agents on Dreamer without talking to the sidekick. You can write code with your fingers on a keyboard if you want to. I know that’s very [00:40:00] antiquated, not, but actually this can be a lot of fun.[00:40:02] So if you wanna pull it out onto your laptop, you can use our, our CLI and, uh, you can edit it in cursor or in cloud code. You know, you don’t have to use our sidekick. And the CLI actually has full access to the rest of the platform with you as the user. So, you know, obviously it is, uh, secure and privacy sensitive, and this is a way that, um, some of our most technical builders do build stuff on the platform.[00:40:24] The really cool thing is the side cake. When it’s in coding mode, it uses exactly the same CLI. So the way it. Build stuff on Dreamer is using the same tools that you might as an engineer. Um, and that’s actually a very powerful abstraction because it turns out that the right way to give a lot of context to agents to use CLIs is to write great documentation.[00:40:46] Make sure that all of the things that you could do are actually possible. And guess what? That makes it a delightful developer experience for real heroes as well.[00:40:53] swyx: Yeah. So that’s pretty cool. We’ve been telling developers to do this and they ignore this until now they have to for content.[00:40:58] David Singleton: I, I’ve been saying this for a [00:41:00] long time.[00:41:00] Uh, we actually Stripe docs.[00:41:02] swyx: I mean, come on. Absolutely. Come on.[00:41:03] David Singleton: Absolutely. But actually, I was chatting with folks at Stripe last week and saying, Hey, you gotta make the Stripe CLI actually tell agents what they can do on Stripe because that way they’re gonna use more stuff on Stripe. I think this is a real trend for the entire industry.[00:41:16] swyx: Yeah.[00:41:16] David Singleton: So we, we’ve been doing that.[00:41:17] swyx: To me, this, this download and, uh, GI push mm-hmm. Everything is complete confidence in that you’re not hacking it. Right. Because there’s other, let’s call them AI builder platforms that impose their stack on you and if you, if you, and so therefore they don’t allow you to do this because they cannot.[00:41:34] Right. ‘cause they, they impose some degrees of freedom, uh, restrictions so that they can get it to work. Yours is a fully general like VM running the full code. Correct. Do whatever you want. Correct. Any language you want. Correct. Yeah.[00:41:46] David Singleton: Correct. Well, in terms of language, if you use the SDK, you could build stuff in other languages.[00:41:51] We’ve actually found that TypeScript is the best language for building these experiences. Yes. Because it’s strongly tight. So you find out at compile time if you’ve made mistakes [00:42:00] and there’s nothing better than getting in. A coding agent in a loop where it can see its mistakes and ask them. So TypeScript is the language that everything gets built in by default here.[00:42:08] swyx: Did And did you see that TypeScript overtook Python? I did. I did. Yeah.[00:42:12] David Singleton: And for what it’s worth, when we started the company, we started writing stuff in Python, and I love Python. Um, if I do, uh, a vendor code, I always write it in Python. It’s my favorite language as a developer with my fingers on the keyboard.[00:42:23] Um, but TypeScript is an amazing language for AI because there’s tons of training data in the models, um, and it’s strongly tight. And actually at the company we built most of the stack in TypeScript, and we have this amazing property, which is, we have type safety all the way from the database to the front end.[00:42:40] And there’s nothing better for working with coding agents than being able to have them check their correctness, compile time. So the same ideas behind building the company’s code base, we’ve put into the agent SDK here as well.[00:42:51] swyx: Yeah. Do you know if you’d use one of those tools, like Prisma or whatever, or is it Tool Lab for you?[00:42:55] David Singleton: We, we actually have crafted most of our own tools. Um. For [00:43:00] instance, we had LLM Driven Code Review, uh, before the thing that got published from philanthropic this week. You know, we, we’ve been doing this stuff, uh, on our own bat[00:43:07] swyx: email, we’ll pay $25 per review.[00:43:09] David Singleton: We, we pay a lot less than that. However, I hear that those reviews are excellent and possibly worth $25.[00:43:14] swyx: Yeah. You know, it’s an option. Right. It’s good, good to have it.[00:43:17] David Singleton: Just to give you a tour of some other stuff here. So, um, I can also see all the versions. Yeah. Um, this is not gi, this is not gi, this is built into dreamer. I can see all the versions that have been pushed before. Why is it[00:43:27] swyx: not gi?[00:43:28] David Singleton: It’s not gi because we can make it work more efficiently than Git.[00:43:32] And we actually, we do some work behind the scenes to kind of understand what’s in each of these versions. Yeah. Um,[00:43:37] swyx: so one of the things I’m pursuing, and I have a lot of thesis, right? Mm-hmm. One of the thesis is like, does GI go away? Does GitHub go away? And like, what, what is the active reinvent[00:43:46] David Singleton: you for, for what it’s worth to some extent.[00:43:48] And anything you build, there’s a lot of path dependency. If we started over, we might make this gi There’s, uh, you know, within the company we use, uh. For our, you know, platform source code. And we like it and it [00:44:00] works well with coding agents as well. The very first versions of this, we wanted to be able to make it possible for the sidekick to manipulate it easily.[00:44:06] Um, and this, this was an expedient way to do it.[00:44:08] swyx: Yeah.[00:44:08] Workflows Logs And Databases[00:44:08] David Singleton: Um, you can also see all the activity that has happened in the workflows that you build. A lot of agents, you’ll build on Dreamer, do things in the background, so they run on triggers. These are stimuli from the outside to kick them off, and this is a nice way to see all of the things that might have kicked off your agent.[00:44:24] You know, you can have an agent that kicks off on a webhook, so you can plug it into external systems. You can have an agent that runs when you receive certain emails that match filters, including LLM filters. And so here you can see, oh, when did it run? What did it do? You know, if I open up one of these guide me prompts or guide me, uh, events.[00:44:41] Oh my can see God. Well, I told you it was calling an LLM for every one of those time slots. Here’s all of the LLM calls, here’s the actual prompts.[00:44:49] swyx: And you don’t mind exposing all of this, right?[00:44:51] David Singleton: No. We want builders to see what’s going on under the hood. It’s haiku to,[00:44:53] swyx: okay. Yeah. So,[00:44:54] David Singleton: okay. Right now that one was haiku.[00:44:56] Like I said, we work with all the models and sidekick will actually pick the best one [00:45:00] for the job. And you saw that was pretty high quality and pretty fast. So Haiku four five is the one that it picked for that job. Exactly. Uh, we also have logs, as I mentioned, there’s a database spun up on demand for every, uh, agent.[00:45:12] You don’t have to go and figure out how to do your own hosting. This is a SQL Light. This is a SQL Light database. Yeah. Um, it’s a multi-user SQL light database. And then, uh, but, but each one is you, you get a database that is unique to this agent. But then if you share the agent with multiple people, we take care of like who are the owners in each row?[00:45:31] And all of that stuff is just there outta the box. Um,[00:45:34] swyx: and again, in-house?[00:45:35] David Singleton: In-house.[00:45:36] swyx: Oh my God.[00:45:37] David Singleton: Yeah. Um, well we do work with a bunch of infrastructure providers, but the technology for how to manipulate this is in-house. Fun fact. We actually did a lot of our own infrastructure development early on at the company and realized we need to spend our energy in the stuff that we’re uniquely doing in the world.[00:45:53] So we’re very delighted to partner with a bunch of great designer and some of this stuff. And then finally, um, I mentioned that agentic apps agents [00:46:00] expose all of their internals to the system so the psychic can manipulate them and use them just like a user can. So you can see how it’s decided to break this problem up into functions.[00:46:09] Some of the functions, the ones with the little I here are exported. That means that there’s probably the visible from outside. Exactly. And others are internal. And if you want to, you can dig right in here and call individual functions and see what happens. But mostly. You don’t need to think about that at all.[00:46:24] Yeah. Uh, you can keep that little drawer closed and you can talk to your sidekick and build really powerful and enchanting experiences.[00:46:30] swyx: Yeah. I mean, to me, like showing this gives the engineer a complete mental model of what you’ve done and what you can do with it. Yeah. For example, the first thing I, I, I look for.[00:46:39] A mental checklist of things, right? Like is off in the database, off looks like it’s not right. So that’s a separate layer. That’s probably me means it’s hard to do multi-user apps on the same app, right?[00:46:50] David Singleton: So you actually, we’ve solved that. So, um, see, yes, the platform builds in off, so you as a user sign into the platform, if you’re using an [00:47:00] agent that was published by someone else, then your identity is, is kind of taken care of by the system.[00:47:05] And when you query the database, you’re gonna get the stuff that is for you. Unless the builder specifically said, this is public data that everyone should see. So they, they actually get a chance to think about that. And again, sidekick can guide you through building, uh, agents and apps that work that way.[00:47:19] So you’re right, that’s another thing that people have to think about when they’re trying to figure out how to build software experiences on Dreamer. You, it’s built in. You talk to the sidekick as if it were a human being about what you want and that’s what you get. So, you know, my, my Big Sky app that I just showed you that was designed for multiple people to use it.[00:47:38] And of course the things that we were putting in as expenses were supposed to be visible to everybody, and I just told the sidekick that’s the way I wanted it. Uh, but by default, if I built an app like that, the data from each user would not been visible to the others.[00:47:49] swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Uh, this is, I presume this is a mood question, but basically you’ve had to build your own coding agent, right?[00:47:55] Which is sidekick slash whatever is in Inside Psychic. Obviously there’s a lot of [00:48:00] people with a lot of desire for cloud code and Code X and attachment to it. Mm-hmm. I know under the hood data basically reduced to a loop, but like, would you let people use cloud coding and Code X or is the harness too specialized?[00:48:12] David Singleton: Yeah. If you, if you want to use, um, cloud code and Code X, then you go down here. Yeah. Hit get the S St K. And we even say this right here, edits your heart’s content Z cursor code.[00:48:22] swyx: Like people want to use it inside of Ick, right? Yeah. They want to switch the engine.[00:48:26] David Singleton: Yeah.[00:48:26] swyx: That’s the coding engine.[00:48:27] David Singleton: Yeah. We are not doing that right now.[00:48:29] Um, you know, again, the goal really is abstract the complexity. Yeah. Um, because the real target for. Building agentic apps is folks who can’t do this already today. I can’t tell you how many users in our community I’ve spoken to who are like Dreamer has changed my life because I used to have all these ideas.[00:48:50] If only I could find an engineer to help me implement them, I’d be able to get them done. They’re free, and now I can talk to my sidekick and, and get it built. I think that’s like really how we think [00:49:00] about the people that should get a ton of value and fun, um, out of the platform. And so they’re not asking to be able to plug in their their own, you know, coding agent.[00:49:11] And for those folks, the opportunity is massive. If you’ve never been able to do stuff in code, now you can build stuff for you, for your friends, for your family, for your coworkers. And also there’s a huge opportunity for folks who do build stuff in code to actually contribute to this ecosystem. So that’s how we think about it.[00:49:28] swyx: Yeah. Amazing.[00:49:28] Personalization And Memory[00:49:28] swyx: That’s most of what I wanted to cover Dreamer wise. I think personalization and memory yeah. Is probably like the single most important job of, uh, of the os. Maybe we could talk about that and then I’ll, I wanted to zoom out on company building stuff.[00:49:40] David Singleton: Yeah, yeah. Sounds good.[00:49:41] swyx: Yeah. So how do you handle memory?[00:49:43] What, yeah, what have you found? What have you tried and failed?[00:49:45] David Singleton: Yeah. Okay. So, uh, first of all, at the core of dreamer is the sidekick. The sidekick gets to know you and it builds up a memory about you over time, and that turns out to be very important. So Dreamer, that’s your moat. That’s Dreamer gets better the more you use it.[00:50:00][00:50:00] For instance, a lot of agents in the platform, when you start using them, the first thing that they’ll show you, here’s what I think is relevant to you for this particular use case. Uh, a very popular kind of agent on Dreamer is a weekend activity planner. So, um,[00:50:14] swyx: like, just tell me what to do.[00:50:15] David Singleton: Well, tell me what to do, especially if I’ve got kids, right?[00:50:17] So I have two kids and a dog, and my wife and I often spend a lot of time trying to figure out what are we gonna do with the crew this weekend. And, you know, we have interests that are very consistent. It actually can take a ton of work during the week to figure this out. So there is an agent on Dreamer called Weekend Activity Planner, and it helps me find things to do with, with the family of the weekend.[00:50:39] In fact, this morning I got a message from my weekend activity planner telling me about the St. Patrick’s Day parade on Saturday. Oh, at Civic Center. I’m Irish. My kids are technically Irish as well. I mean, they, they, they have multiple citizenships, but you know, they’re, they’re Irish. Um, what a better thing to do than take them to the St.[00:50:56] Patrick’s Day parade. Why did that get recommended to me? Because in the [00:51:00] profile that we can, activity Planner knows about me. It knows that I’m Irish, right? So all of that comes from the memory that Psychic builds up about me over time. We have invested in this a bunch. We will continue to invest in this more.[00:51:11] We’ve tried actually many different techniques. As, you know, the, the kind of, um, cutting edge of a agentic memory has changed over time. You know, very early on we were putting lots of facts into a vector database and, uh, and doing embeddings and pulling them back out, um, using, you know, reverse lookup of embeddings rag that actually worked, but turned out to be much more complexity than was actually required.[00:51:33] So, you know, today we’ve replaced it with a different system. Uh, I think we use a system that’s pretty similar to what you’ll find in lots of other products, but it’s an area that we’re actively, uh, investing in. Like, there’s, there’s. More than one person at the company specifically working on memory. And so expect us to just continue to make it better.[00:51:50] swyx: Did you try knowledge graphs?[00:51:51] David Singleton: We’ve tried knowledge graphs. The system that we have now is not a knowledge graph. Yeah. Um, but we’ve probably implemented most of the papers you’ve seen out there on agent [00:52:00] memory and the current system is working pretty well.[00:52:02] swyx: Yeah. Excellent. Zooming out just on the company stuff.[00:52:06] Mm-hmm. Um, uh, this is your first time in the CEO seat. Correct. You were CTO before. Correct. What’s different?[00:52:11] David Singleton: Yeah. The difference between being a CEO and A CTO really is just. Like making sure you’re looking across everything. So, um, I have run products before, so for instance, Android wear, you’re basically a CEO[00:52:25] swyx: of[00:52:25] David Singleton: that product.[00:52:26] I, I, I was running that as a general manager.[00:52:28] swyx: Yeah.[00:52:29] David Singleton: However, when you do it for your own company and the buck truly stops with you, it definitely kind of raises the temperature a little bit. Um, but it’s been a lot of fun for me to think about a lot of go to market topics. Um, I spend a lot of my time these days meeting users, uh, talking to folks about what they could do on the platform, being very active on X and LinkedIn, uh, which by the way is a huge pleasure.[00:52:51] It is so much fun to be able to engage with users and potential users directly and understand what they would like to do. Um, and that’s the biggest difference [00:53:00] between this role and being the CTO, um, of, uh, of a company. At the same time, I am someone who always likes to look for why are we doing this?[00:53:10] Who are the people that. Benefit from it. So, you know, even as A-C-T-O-I was always paying a lot of attention to topics across the company. So I feel very grateful for all I learned in my previous roles that kind of got me ready to, to do this at this kind of scale.[00:53:24] swyx: Yeah.[00:53:24] Tiny Teams Hiring And Taste[00:53:24] swyx: To me this is like the natural lead into when I went into your office.[00:53:27] Yeah. It’s surprisingly small.[00:53:28] David Singleton: Yes.[00:53:29] swyx: So, and I have a, another thesis I’m pursuing for latent space, which is the emergence of tiny teams. Yeah. Where, uh, you know, the, the classic sort of image is that teams with more millions in revenue than employees, right? Yeah. So you, that’s revenue efficiency definition.[00:53:43] But I do think as a CEO, you are going to run a smaller team than you used to.[00:53:46] David Singleton: Yeah. So I believe very strongly in the power of small teams. So the more people you add to a team, the more communication overhead there is. And it doesn’t even grow linearly. If you think about it, the more people you add, everyone cares [00:54:00] about getting to know everybody else.[00:54:01] And sharing what they’re doing with everybody else. And that’s great. I’m not saying they shouldn’t, right? The very, like, I wanna work in teams that are fun, where people are talking to each other and, and sharing ideas and so forth. But, you know, there’s just a kind of gravitational weight that comes from larger and larger teams.[00:54:16] So just inherently large organizations are less nimble than small ones. And if you run a large organization, you have to keep thinking about how do I kinda like prune things so that it can act like a small team. So a dreamer, the, the core team that built everything I just showed you was, was honestly about six people.[00:54:34] Uh, we’re larger than I we’re about 17 people at the company now because as, but[00:54:38] swyx: still, uh, for everything you just showed,[00:54:40] David Singleton: it’s, it’s still a small team, which is great. Very, very high talent density team. We’ve been very, very careful and kind of obsessed as we grew to make sure that everyone that’s joining the company is joining a team that they’re gonna get a lot of, uh, learning out of, but also they’re actually going to kind of.[00:54:57] Help everyone else a lot as well. There’s something very [00:55:00] special about that too. You know, every single person at our company I would be delighted to do any project with at any time because, uh, they’re just all great. And, you know, the smaller you keep the team, the easier it is to make sure that, that that talent density is there as well.[00:55:14] Of course, it’s a real luxury to be building a company. We started this company in late 24, but it’s a real luxury to be building a company today because we can build with agents. So we’re using coding agents.[00:55:26] swyx: Yeah,[00:55:26] David Singleton: we’re using Dreamer marketing agents. All of our operations. We’re looking at how we can, can actually accelerate what we’re doing, uh, using our own tools.[00:55:36] swyx: Um, any, actually any agents that you don’t build that you wanna shout out? Just that, that you love?[00:55:41] David Singleton: Yeah. Is it[00:55:41] swyx: other people’s[00:55:42] David Singleton: agents that we built for the[00:55:43] swyx: company? No, no, no. Other people’s, uh, stuff like you shout out granola.[00:55:46] David Singleton: Yeah. So I showed you Attain finance. Uh, attain Finance has an agent as well, which like helps you manage your money.[00:55:53] I find this really amazing. So, um, I always have this like lingering feeling that I’ve got a whole bunch of [00:56:00] subscriptions that if I just had a bit of time to go across them, I could, you know, figure out how to consolidate them. And the person who built Attain Finance doesn’t work at our company. What they were part of the early Alpha group.[00:56:10] So they gotta kind of look at how all this stuff works pretty early on. And they built this really amazing experience that actually helps you. Like, save a lot of money because it will kind of help you analyze your purchases. It’s almost like a kind of a financial fitness coach. He’s called Andrew, uh, who, who built it.[00:56:26] He came and showed it to us and the first thing it did was it recommended that he should buy fewer burritos. And, uh, he was like, it’s true. Like that is actually how I could save the most money. So, uh, that’s a, that’s a pretty cool example.[00:56:38] swyx: Uh, I noticed he was first. Because he’s order alphabetical order.[00:56:43] So I’m, I’m wondering how come there are no like Avar? Uh,[00:56:46] David Singleton: yeah. Well if you’re a builder right there and you’re wondering how do I seo o myself on the Dreamer platform, Swyx suggest you name your tool Avar. In all seriousness though, those are the tools I have connected. So they’re in alphabetical order.[00:56:58] If you haven’t yet connected them, we actually [00:57:00] kind of put them in the right order for you. So if Sidekick understands you and puts in the right order, uh, but I’d say a arc is gonna come before, uh, anything else,[00:57:06] swyx: right? Yeah, exactly. Um, and, and then I, I think how has hiring changed? Yeah. You’ve hired plenty of self engineers in your life.[00:57:14] David Singleton: Mm-hmm.[00:57:14] swyx: I assume something’s changed.[00:57:15] David Singleton: Yeah, absolutely. So one of the main things that I look for now when hiring engineers is. How well do you work with coding agents? Our team actually is quite experienced a good number. Everyone at Dreamer, other than, well, I guess I write a lot of code too. Everyone’s an ic, an individual contributor.[00:57:32] Many of the folks that work on the team have previously been managers. And it turns out being an engineering manager, as long as you stay very close to the code and are able to continue to craft it yourself, is actually a great skill profile for being able to make agents work for you and for your team in this, uh, in, in this age.[00:57:50] And so that’s definitely something that we look for quite intently when hiring engineers. And, um, we still have folks write some code like with their fingers. It’s just important to know [00:58:00] that the kind of core of the craft is there. But the vast majority of what we spend time doing is building quite significant and elaborate stuff together in a fun, collaborative environment with coding agents.[00:58:09] swyx: Right.[00:58:09] David Singleton: Um,[00:58:10] swyx: so what, what is the interview loop like? Sit there with Codex, do something.[00:58:13] David Singleton: Yeah, I mean, our interview loop is one a coding. Screen to make sure that the, the base is there. And then we actually do a couple of short projects, uh, with an engineer on our team and whoever is thinking about joining, where we’ll actually put out a very fully formed product idea, we’ll riff on it together and make sure that we can test product sense a little bit and we’ll actually try to build the whole thing with x or cloud code or whatever, uh, whatever the person is most familiar with.[00:58:39] Um, and watching how someone thinks about prompting the agents, what they do while the agent is working. ‘cause you know, you can actually, this is a kind of interesting, uh, dynamic in the industry. Anytime I’m working on code these days, I always have more than one agent going at the same time because while one agent is going and reviewing the output of the next one, and if you [00:59:00] get them in a nice round robin, you can be very, very productive.[00:59:02] You can also chain agents together. You can have one agent producing code, another agent reviewing it. And actually just seeing how folks have adapted their workflow, um, is a big part of what we’re we’re looking for in our interview process.[00:59:13] swyx: Amazing. I guess last question, but also open to you to bring up any topics that I haven’t touched on, have you wanted LLMs to do that they still cannot do today?[00:59:23] David Singleton: That’s a great question. Um, and it’s amazing ‘cause the capabilities of LLM just, just advanced so quickly. You know, if you’d asked me a year ago, I would’ve said, well, you know, music generation, I, I like music. Um, and Suno is amazing by the way. And, but previous generations i’d, yeah, I can kind of tell that that’s AI generated today.[00:59:42] I listened to the latest tracks made by Suno. I’m like, that’s, that’s pretty impressive. If we went back six months, I’d be asking for better image generation. The latest nano banana, uh, which by the way is a tool on the platform that you can use on Dreamer is producing spectacular infographics.[00:59:58] Spectacular [01:00:00] painterly images when I ask for those as well. So, so that’s quite impressive. I still think I, so I think as we go forward into the future, there is still a lot of room for human creativity and so that’s also maybe where I’m going to have to say that LLMs are most lacking. So I think that when you think about building software, the thing that’s really important and that we all need to bring is taste.[01:00:24] Mm-hmm. Right? You have to like actually truly understand people, their motivations. How do I build something that’s really delightful? So, you know, we had to do a lot of work on Dreamer to make it possible for the experiences that we build to not look like AI generic slop.[01:00:43] swyx: Right? We go,[01:00:44] David Singleton: um. And we’ve done that by putting a lot of our own taste into the templates and the prompts and the, the harness.[01:00:52] Um, so I hope you have fun playing with it. I, I, I think Dreamer today generates experiences that don’t feel super generic, but that’s a ton of [01:01:00] work, right? The LMS do not do that by default. And in fact, I, if I see a, if you ask for a simple like to-do list app or something, uh, built by the models, I can tell which model built it just by kind of how it looks.[01:01:10] So, um, taste, creativity, sense of individuality is still something that I think the LLMs are not producing out of the box. And I think that’s gonna be an interesting frontier. What do you think?[01:01:21] swyx: Usually that’s, this is by, uh, from builder to researcher question. ‘cause uh, we do have researchers listening.[01:01:27] Yeah. And I’m just like, well, that’s it. But like soft taste for me please is, is like a very broad topic. Uh, what do I think? I mean, I agree. I just think that it’s too big of a topic to break down. Mm-hmm. Particularly because there’s a lot of, I’ll know it when I see it type, uh, eval, which is unverifiable for, for researchers to do so.[01:01:45] David Singleton: Yeah, I mean I, I do talk to researchers quite often and, uh, we talk about this topic and I think most people agree[01:01:51] swyx: uhhuh[01:01:52] David Singleton: that, you know, one of the great things about building models to generate code was just, you know, it’s so verifiable. So Yeah. Um, you know, it’s [01:02:00] very tractable and they agree that the next problem is how do you kind of step up that hierarchy of needs and get into these taste questions.[01:02:08] And quantifying taste is hard, but I’m actually kind of excited that some people are gonna start doing this. And you know, that’s when I think that some of the really iconic companies in the world will start to become places where, you know, folks really try to like. Debug and understand the creative process.[01:02:23] And I get pretty excited about that.[01:02:25] swyx: Yeah. Uh, I, I think we are slowly uncovering what intelligence really means and, and the, the benchmarks that we adopt and then abandon because they’re solved is, is basically us evolving the machine intelligence in the way that we, the different way than we evolved, but we are slowly understanding what it means to be intelligent.[01:02:44] Right. And, uh, and it’s, it’s interesting. I wonder how they suppress us in the future, but like, we’re not even there yet. We’re just like, get, get it to a place where we like what we get. Mm-hmm. From the machinist sometimes. You know, it used to be 30%, now it’s like 95%, but still there’s that 5%. [01:03:00] That’s right.[01:03:00] Yeah. Any other topics we should have touched on?[01:03:02] David Singleton: No, I think we’ve covered everything, but I wanna remind everyone,[01:03:06] swyx: ct[01:03:06] David Singleton: dreamer.com/latent space.[01:03:09] swyx: Yes. No, it’s a, it’s a very good deal. I mean, like, come on. Like, yeah. So thank you for offering that.[01:03:14] David Singleton: Cool. Well Swyx, thank you so much. This was fun.[01:03:16] swyx: Yeah, thank you.[01:03:17] Uh, we, we’ll get Alejandro to put like flashing neon signs on the, on the YouTube. Cool. Wonderful. Um, alright. Thanks. So my cool,[01:03:23] David Singleton: awesome, thank you. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe