Sound Investing

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  Get Out While You Can or Stay the Course 09.09.2026 40dk

  Paul opens with news of a new opportunity to reach young investors: a five-part series for Next Generation Personal Finance (NGPF.org), available to some 150,000 teachers who use NGPF's free curriculum. Topics include the math and history of investing, the case for index funds, the inside story on diversification, the $5 million payoff for a financially literate high school graduate, and a teacher Q&A session. Each presentation will be shared with Sound Investing listeners the following week.Then Paul turns to two listener questions that go to the heart of how people actually experience the market.The first asks whether broad diversification really produces the best returns, or whether a more focused portfolio would do better. He walks through the Bessembinder research showing that roughly 4% of companies drove most of the market's long-term return, Fama and French data on small cap value going back almost 100 years, and Vanguard's own real time returns since 1998 comparing $10,000 invested in the S&P 500, mid cap, small cap blend and small cap value asset classes.The second is a letter from an investor who put his first real savings, earned at $7 an hour, into Fidelity Magellan in 1985, lost 30% on Black Monday in October 1987, and pulled everything out. Forty years later he still fears the next crash and asks whether Paul's Ultimate Buy and Hold portfolio could leave him waking up with half his money gone.Paul closes with a story about five 24-year-old engineers he met on Bainbridge Island, and an offer to anyone who can gather a group that would benefit from a conversation about investing.LINKSFine-Tuning Your Asset Allocation tablesNGPF: ngpf.org
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  The Investing Myths That Cost a Fortune 02.09.2026 1sa 13dk

  WATCH THE VIDEOIt was a pleasure to be invited back on System Trader with Jack Lempart. Here is a list of the main topics we covered:CHAPTERS0:53 • My own biggest mistake3:15 • Why “the stock market is a casino” is exactly backwards6:48 • “I don’t have enough money to start” — what $100 a month actually becomes9:33 • A $20 bet with my 13-year-old grandson13:04 • How much intelligence does successful investing really require?15:31 • The Mensa Investment Club: buy low, sell lower16:24 • Three books for the psychological hurdles17:38 • “It’s a bad time to invest right now” — the myth that never dies20:00 • Why a falling market is the best thing that can happen to a young investor24:21 • Can a star manager do it for you? SPIVA and Bill Miller30:21 • An ETF is only a wrapper — how do you grade what’s inside it?33:01 • Traditional vs. non-traditional index funds35:49 • Home bias: half U.S., half international, and the lost decade44:04 • Cap-weighted vs. asset-class weighted funds46:26 • Finding your right level of risk before the market tests you55:20 • Is the small-cap value premium dead?62:52 • Financial literacy in high school — and who’s teaching on TikTok64:21 • Where the biggest premium comes from: size, value, quality and momentum69:29 • The one thing to do tomorrow morning: control what you can, then automate
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  Paul and Chris Follow-Up: The Rick Ferri Small-Cap Value Debate 26.08.2026 1sa 6dk

  Paul and Chris reflect on Paul’s recent discussion with Rick Ferri. Paul adds information he wished he’d included, and Chris reacts to Paul and Rick’s positions. Together, they discuss the behavioral, trust, and performance benefits and trade-offs of seeking meaningful diversification by adding Small-Cap Value to a portfolio.CHAPTERS00:00:00 – Intro00:02:50 – Chris’ 30k Foot View00:06:16 – Mid-caps?00:10:40 – Tot. Mkt. vs. S&P 50000:20:15 – Trust and Change00:25:45 – Table G1b00:28:50 – VT vs. AVGE00:42:20 – Dollar-Cost-Averaging00:52:00 – Paul’s Grandson’s Question00:53:08 – Gold funds00:59:40 – Travel plans01:02:20 – OutroWatch the video on YouTubeTable G1b — Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US Small Cap Value
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  Paul Merriman and Rick Ferri: A Conversation Decades in the Making 19.08.2026 1sa 33dk

  Watch the video here.Paul sits down with Rick Ferri — not for a debate, but for the kind of honest conversation two people can only have after spending their careers chasing the same goal from different directions.Rick makes the case against tilting: the small cap premium largely disappeared once the research went public around 1980, and he believes value stopped working around 2006. Paul counters with Table G1b, which shows the results of blending small cap value and the S&P 500 in 10% increments from 1970 through 2025 — returns alongside the worst drawdowns each combination had to survive. Then Rick does something unexpected — he crosses to Paul's side of the table and builds a strong argument for small cap value, framing it as a way to capture the return of private companies that represent half of the economy.Where they land is less about who's right than what it costs to be wrong. If you go down the factor road, Rick says, it's a lifetime commitment — not three years.Also covered: lump sum versus dollar cost averaging, what an hourly advisor can do to help do-it-yourself investors implement their new portfolio, the new Trump accounts for newborns, and why VT may not be your best choice in a taxable account.Both Paul and Rick will be at the Bogleheads Conference, November 13–15 at Green Valley Ranch Resort and Spa in Henderson, NV, near Las Vegas. Registration: boglecenter.net/2026conferenceTable G1b — Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US Small Cap Value: View the tableStay tuned for next week's podcast, a discussion with Chris Pedersen about this interview with Rick.
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  Preparing for an upcoming debate with Rick Ferri: Total Market portfolios 12.08.2026 14dk

  This Friday I'm sitting down with my friend Rick Ferri for a debate that I think matters a great deal, even though — or maybe because — Rick and I agree on almost everything. We both believe in diversification, low costs, index funds, ignoring predictions, and staying the course. Where we part ways is what happens after that.Rick's case is that you should simply own the whole market. A total stock market index fund gives you thousands of companies at an extraordinarily low cost, and adding complexity rarely pays. My case is that the academic research — Fama, French, and decades of market history — shows that greater exposure to small and value companies may raise long-term expected returns. Rick calls that factor tilting. I call it better diversification. He'll argue I'm not adding diversification at all, just changing the weights, and he's right that this is exactly what we're doing. The question is whether it's worth doing.We also take on a second question that gets far too little attention: if you do want small and value exposure, where should you get it? Vanguard, Fidelity, DFA or Avantis — traditional indexing or systematic portfolio management? Differences that look trivial today can compound into very large ones over 40 or 50 years.Neither of us is trying to win. Rick may be right. I may be right. Ask us again in 50 years. What I hope you take away is the process — examining evidence, understanding the alternatives, admitting what nobody knows, and committing to a strategy you can stick with. Because every strategy disappoints you eventually, and what you do in that moment matters more than which one you chose.The podcast and video of my conversation with Rick will be available Wednesday, August 19, 2026. If you have any questions for Rick, send them to [email protected].
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  Finding the Perfect Advisor, a Battle Over Words and VT vs. AVGE 05.08.2026 37dk

  Paul returns from three days at the Garrett Planning Network retreat with a lesson that has almost nothing to do with investments — and everything to do with getting your money's worth from professional advice.Garrett advisors work by the hour, a business model Paul believes eliminates the conflicts of interest built into assets-under-management relationships. For $1,000 to $8,000, he's convinced most families can get extraordinary value from five to ten hours with a thoughtful, trained hourly planner. But there's a catch: the value of those hours depends almost entirely on your willingness to tell the truth. Inspired by a Seth Godin observation — people lie in focus groups, on surveys, and to themselves — Paul explains why the most valuable planning meeting isn't the one where you look financially successful. It's the one where you're completely honest. Paul and his wife are putting this to the test with an hourly planner of their own, and he'll report back in the weeks ahead.Next, Paul shares a private conversation with his longtime friend Rick Ferri, who challenged an idea Paul has taught for decades: that small cap value, large cap value, and international are equity asset classes at all. Rick argues there's only one equity asset class — the total market — and everything else is a segment or style. Paul takes the challenge seriously, does some digging, and explains why the answer matters far more than a debate over definitions. How you think about asset classes shapes the portfolio you'll live with for the next 60 or 70 years.Finally, Paul digs into AVGE, the Avantis globally diversified all-equity ETF, and how it compares to Vanguard's total market approach (VT and VTI). He walks through the meaningful differences: 70/30 U.S./international at Avantis versus 60/40 at Vanguard, and substantially larger positions in mid cap value, small cap value, and small cap blend. He looks at what those tilts have meant historically — including Vanguard's own mid cap value fund turning $10,000 into roughly $160,000 versus $102,000 for the S&P 500 — and why he believes the extra 0.17% in expenses may be money well spent. For investors who don't want to go all-in, Paul offers simple combinations, like a third VT, a third AVGE, and a third AVUV.CHAPTERS00:00 – Introduction: three topics from the Garrett retreat01:56 – Why hourly advisors have fewer conflicts of interest05:52 – The catch: your willingness to tell the truth06:38 – Seth Godin: "People lie... and they lie to themselves"08:04 – What planners can't fix if they don't know about it13:00 – Paul's debate with Rick Ferri: what is an equity asset class?18:05 – Why the definition shapes your lifetime portfolio21:34 – AVGE vs. VT: U.S./international balance23:07 – Comparing value, blend, and growth exposure25:00 – Mid cap and small cap: what history shows30:15 – Expense ratios and what you're paying for31:35 – Simple combinations: VT + AVGE + AVUV33:15 – Stay the course: closing thoughtsLearn more about the Garrett Planning Network
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  AVGV, Truth Tellers, AI and Finding Your Why 29.07.2026 33dk

  Paul discusses his upcoming trip to Minneapolis to address almost 100 hourly financial planners at the Garrett Planning Network annual retreat — then shows, in real time, how he uses AI alongside the Truth Tellers. This example is prompted by a Ben Felix video arguing that most people save without knowing their real “why.” Paul asked ChatGPT to explore the question and shares the full AI response, which includes the six steps to creating your “why” — from “dream before you calculate” to purpose → plan → portfolio.In the second part of this podcast he responds to the many listeners who have asked: build the worldwide all-value portfolio with five Avantis ETFs, or simply buy AVGV, a single ETF that owns the same ETFs but in different percentages? Over three years, AVGV compounded at 21.1% (up 77.4%), while the five-fund do-it-yourself version compounded at 22.2% (up 82.6%) with no rebalancing. Doing the work likely earns a better return — but a Morningstar study suggests most investors do better buying the single ETF, because it takes care of all the rebalancing and overcomes the tendency to chase returns as money is added.Paul would appreciate your feedback on this podcast: [email protected]• Ben Felix video on investor myths• Morningstar “Mind the Gap 2025” study• Garrett Planning Network — find an hourly advisor• Meet the Truth Tellers
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  Stuff Happens: Perspective From Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward 22.07.2026 1sa

  The hardest part of investing isn't choosing funds — it's building a set of beliefs strong enough to keep you disciplined when the market, the news, and your own emotions all conspire to pull you off course.In this episode, Paul sets aside the usual fine-tuning tables and turns to one of his favorite books, Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward. Table by table, Ben makes the same point in a dozen different ways: the bad stuff is normal, it's happened before, and it will happen again. The goal isn't to avoid it — it's to expect it, so you can stay the course.Along the way, Paul walks through:• The 10 worst days, months, and years in market history — and how the market behaved 1, 5, and 10 years later• Why bonds turn a 43% stock loss into something far gentler, and why a simple 60/40 has never had a losing 20-year period• How stocks actually perform before, during, and after a recession (the average is a gain)• The "dead cat bounces" of 2000–2002 and why three years of false hope wear investors down• What a century of international returns says about putting all your eggs in one basket• The most quietly important number in investing: the market's average daily return of 0.03% — a lifetime of baby stepsThe theme underneath it all: future returns will likely look a lot like the past. We simply have no way to know the sequence — and that's exactly why realistic expectations, low costs, and broad diversification matter more than any forecast.The biggest enemy of the investor, as the data keeps showing, isn't the market. It's the investor.BRINGING FINANCIAL FREEDOM TO NEW AUDIENCESLast week I spent more than three hours with 89 graduating nurses at Texas A&M University, exploring one life-changing idea: how a handful of smart financial decisions can add millions of dollars to your lifetime financial security. Many of you asked to see what these presentations look like, so we're making this one available to watch (link below).LINKS• Ben Carlson, Risk and Reward (Foundation earns when you use this link)• Texas A&M nursing school presentation (3+ hour video)• Texas A&M student feedback• Mike Piper, Social Security Made Simple / other titles• Personal Finance in Your 20s & 30s For Dummies• Free books from Paul Merriman• Boot Camp series & tables
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  Is it possible that factor investing won't work? 15.07.2026 26dk

  A longtime listener wrote in after watching a Ben Felix video making the point that factor investing may not beat the S&P 500 by the end of an investor’s lifetime — and could even do worse. His question was simple: is factor investing really worth the effort?Paul’s answer turned out to be two answers, so he’s splitting it into two episodes. This week is about the thinking. Next week is about the evidence — including new data Daryl Bahls just sent over.Paul also tries something new: using AI to canvas the writings of the Truth Tellers and surface what they would say about this exact question. What emerges is a point they all agree on — good decisions do not guarantee good outcomes, and bad decisions sometimes produce wonderful ones. Bill Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, Ben Felix, Mike Piper, Christine Benz, Rob Berger, Jim Dahle and Jack Bogle each frame the same distinction: expected returns are not realized returns, and probability is not certainty.Investing is one long series of forks in the road — save or spend, stocks or bonds, index or active, buy-and-hold or market timing — and none of them come with a guarantee. What they come with is a probability. The job is to choose thoughtfully, accept the uncertainty, and have the courage to stay the course while the evidence still supports the plan.LINKS• Meet the Truth Tellers: paulmerriman.com/truth-tellers
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  Back from the Baltic and 12 of your questions 08.07.2026 55dk

  Paul returns from a two-week Baltic cruise refreshed and ready to dig into the numbers. He opens with a 12-month performance review of the recommended portfolios at Avantis, DFA and Vanguard — Avantis averaged 31.1% across the 10 equity asset classes in the Ultimate Buy and Hold, versus 27.7% at DFA and 26% at Vanguard — and explains why the non-traditional index funds keep outperforming traditional cap-weighted indexes.Paul also revisits Ben Carlson’s look at the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which grew to $30 billion under management before falling 65% while the S&P 500 gained more than 60% — a costly lesson in performance chasing, with an estimated $7.5 billion in shareholder losses.Then Paul answers 12 listener questions, with a special deep dive into table G1B — 56 years of S&P 500 vs. small cap value returns, one year at a time, plus every combination in 10% increments.QUESTIONS COVERED1. Funds that match the international and U.S. small cap value asset classes 17:182. Keep investments at Fidelity or move to Vanguard? 18:513. Is the Vanguard money market fund a good long-term emergency fund? 20:194. Pairing the S&P 500 with small cap value — the G1B fine-tuning table 21:465. Why the Four Fund worldwide portfolio uses U.S. small cap value only 31:176. Should geopolitical tension make you cash out? 33:577. Why has small cap value historically produced higher returns? 36:478. Can you get rich from investing? The Rule of 72 and $100 a month 41:519. Is the all-value worldwide portfolio better than the other strategies? (Table H2) 44:0310. Where to find the 10 Fund portfolio allocations 48:3911. Paul’s take on DFA’s micro cap fund (DFMC) 49:1612. Lump sum or dollar cost average when switching funds in a Roth? 51:57LINKS• Table H2 — Sound Investing Portfolios Comparison (Worldwide All Value)• Table H1a — Sound Investing Portfolios Asset Allocations• Fine-Tuning Table G1B — S&P 500 vs. Small Cap Value• Fine-Tuning Table G1C — S&P 500 vs. SCV, 2025 Returns• Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations
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  They're Back... Talking Real Money - Investing Talk 01.07.2026 26dk

  I joined my longtime friend Tom Cock for a special edition of Talking Real Money — a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of indexing, the proposed changes to the S&P 500, and why investors should understand both the strengths and limitations of traditional index funds. I explain why firms like Dimensional Fund Advisors and Avantis Investors use a more flexible, evidence-based approach than traditional indexing, and how academic research has reshaped portfolio construction over the past several decades.We also explore lessons from market history, including the importance of understanding major bear markets, determining appropriate risk levels, and building portfolios that align with your personal goals rather than chasing maximum returns. I share insights from the latest Dimensional Matrix Book and explain why I believe studying 100 years of market data helps investors stay disciplined during inevitable downturns.Finally, I introduce a simple but powerful strategy for helping newborns and young children build substantial retirement wealth through small annual investments that can compound over many decades.CHAPTERS0:11 Special guest Paul Merriman joins Talking Real Money0:55 Long friendship and investing partnership between Tom and Paul1:20 S&P 500 rule changes and earlier inclusion of major IPOs like SpaceX2:07 Historical examples of S&P 500 additions and omissions2:35 Microsoft’s delayed entry into the S&P 5002:56 NVIDIA replacing Enron in 20013:29 How index rule changes can affect future returns and volatility4:08 Why indexing remains the preferred strategy for most investors5:16 Traditional versus non-traditional index funds6:37 How Avantis and Dimensional incorporate factors beyond company size8:05 Why factor-based investing differs from traditional indexing9:02 Problems with rigid index reconstitution schedules10:16 Momentum, flexibility, and portfolio management advantages11:22 Introduction to Dimensional’s annual Matrix Book11:53 Using market history rather than forecasts to guide investing decisions13:09 Lessons from past bubbles, crashes, and lost decades14:20 Why Paul trusts academic research more than Wall Street forecasts15:14 The case for small-cap value investing15:49 Clarifying Paul’s allocation to small companies16:53 Investing for heirs, charities, and future generations18:10 Remembering investor panic during the 2008 financial crisis19:18 Determining an appropriate risk level for retirement portfolios20:43 Different investor goals: beating the market, maximizing returns, or minimizing risk21:28 Peace of mind versus maximum growth21:55 Helping young people build retirement wealth early22:54 The $365-per-year retirement funding concept24:09 Final thoughts and appreciation between Tom and PaulQuestions? Comments? Click!
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  Ben Carlson and Paul Merriman on Full Disclosure 24.06.2026 1sa

  Paul Merriman joins host Roben Farzad on Full Disclosure for a rare conversation alongside Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the new book Risk and Reward: How to Handle Market Volatility and Build Long-Term Wealth. Roben called it a “truth teller tandem” — the first time these two have sat down together — and the result is an hour of warm, candid, data-grounded talk about how individual investors can actually succeed.The conversation opens with a great question: does a century of S&P 500 history mean anything when index funds didn’t even exist for most of it? Paul explains why those long-run numbers still matter — not as a promise of the next ten years, but as a guide to the full range of what markets can do. From there, Paul and Ben trace just how far investing has come since Paul entered the business in 1966: the death of the 8.5% sales load, the arrival of IRAs and 401(k)s, fractional shares, and commission-free trading. As Ben puts it, the barriers to entry have been bulldozed, and today’s investor has a better shot at strong net returns than ever before.But more choices bring more temptation. Paul and Ben dig into diversification as a risk-management tool — why a tilt toward small-cap value and a meaningful allocation to international stocks can pay off over a lifetime, even when the S&P 500 is dominating the headlines. They revisit the lost decade of 2000–2009, the lessons of Japan’s 1989 peak, and the hard discipline of rebalancing into the pain when an asset class is out of favor.They also get practical about the things keeping investors up at night: inflation as one of the biggest risks most people underestimate, the real trade-offs in today’s bond market and long-duration Treasuries, and an honest look at the FIRE movement — including why meaning, longevity, and a 30- or 40-year retirement complicate the dream of retiring early. Throughout, Paul shares his own story, including why, at 82 and with more than he needs, he still holds half his portfolio in equities because of a caution he’s carried since his twenties.Ben closes with the thought that may stay with you longest: the most important thing an investor can understand is not the market — it’s themselves. Knowing which mistake you’d regret more, and what you can truly live with, is the foundation everything else is built on.Watch video here.
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  Evidence-Based Investing, Index Funds & Staying the Course 17.06.2026 1sa 7dk

  I recently sat down with Steve Chen on his Boldin Your Money podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about evidence-based investing — and why it matters more than ever in a world of speculation, hype, and constant financial noise. We covered my early days as a stockbroker in the 1960s, the psychology that trips investors up in downturns, how low-cost index funds transformed personal finance, factor investing and small-cap value, and why younger investors are being pulled toward gambling-like behavior through apps, crypto, and prediction markets. Whether you're just starting out or planning for retirement, I think you'll find it time well spent.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED• The difference between investing and speculation• Why staying the course is emotionally difficult• Wall Street incentives and investor behavior• The origins of index fund investing• Factor investing and small-cap value explained• Why diversification matters long term• Rebalancing strategies and portfolio management• Financial literacy and generational investing habits• Why gambling behavior is becoming normalized• How AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude are changing education• The psychology behind successful long-term investorsTIMESTAMPS00:00 Introduction02:55 Paul Merriman's start in investing05:20 Wall Street incentives and conflicts of interest08:35 Why investing is harder than it looks12:25 Investing vs speculation15:40 Why people panic during market crashes17:30 The psychology of staying the course19:10 Generational wealth and financial literacy23:40 The case for index funds28:45 Factor investing explained32:30 The four-fund portfolio strategy36:00 Rebalancing and long-term returns38:00 ChatGPT, Claude, and financial education42:15 Market valuations and investor behavior45:30 Building wealth intentionally49:00 Gambling culture and modern investing51:45 Teaching financial literacy to younger generations54:00 Final thoughts on long-term investingRESOURCES MENTIONEDPaul Merriman Foundation: https://www.paulmerriman.com/Try the Boldin Planner for free: https://go.boldin.com/podcasttep110Watch Video here- https://youtu.be/y_i5wrr_tfM
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  Paul & Chris Tackle 10 of your Investing Questions 10.06.2026 57dk

  Paul and Chris answer 10 listener questions in one hour — covering asset allocation, investor behavior, funds, indexes, and fund management. They also dig into Daryl Bahls' hot-off-the-press alternative portfolio analysis.CHAPTERS00:00 — Intro01:11 — Funds vs. their indexes06:04 — Which asset can I drop?10:50 — Buy and hold for a lifetime?16:04 — Tracking errors20:24 — How many years to trust a strategy?27:05 — The impact of 10% cash28:18 — What's a "good enough" return?31:57 — The new worldwide 4-fund portfolio42:29 — Too old for small-cap value?44:56 — Avantis and DFA48:27 — AVES for emerging markets value54:04 — OutroLINKS & FILESSound Investing Quilt ChartsCallan Periodic Table of Investment ReturnsTwo Funds for Life CalculatorLifetime Investment CalculatorDaryl's 4-Fund Portfolio Analysis (WW 4-Fund)Other Fine Tuning Tables (50/50)2FFL Fine Tuning Table — AllocationsWatch Video Here
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  Mike Piper- Bainbridge Financial Literacy Series 2026 03.06.2026 1sa 34dk

  In Session 3 of the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Spring Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Mike Piper — CPA, Personal Financial Specialist, and the voice behind the Oblivious Investor blog and the free Open Social Security calculator — for one of the warmest, most practical conversations of the series. Mike has a rare gift: taking the topics that intimidate most investors and making them feel obvious. Over the course of the hour, he and Paul work through the handful of decisions that genuinely shape a retirement.Mike opens with a quietly radical idea: if you've prepared well, "more than enough" isn't the exception — it's the most likely outcome. Because we have to plan for long lifespans, poor markets, and high medical costs that usually don't all come to pass, most disciplined savers end up with leftovers. From there, he explains which dollars to spend first each year, how age and capital gains should steer whether you draw from taxable or retirement accounts, and why the step-up in basis matters more than most people realize.The conversation turns to the human side of money, too — how to talk a couple through it when one spouse is aggressive and the other can't stand the thought of the stock market, why both positions are almost always driven by fear, and how framing the trade-offs around the people you love often brings them closer together. Mike and Paul also tackle the spendthrift-child dilemma, the case for matching a young person's Roth IRA, and why small gifts early can dwarf an inheritance received at 70.On Social Security, Mike makes the point that most people get the risk exactly backwards: delaying benefits isn't a gamble — it's insurance against the scary scenario of living a very long time. He walks through what really happens if Congress does nothing before the trust fund shortfall around 2033 (hint: the program doesn't disappear), and the range of fixes on the table. Throughout, both men return to the same theme — simple, low-cost, broadly diversified portfolios keep beating the clever alternatives, and the Bessembinder research helps explain why.Stick around for the closing exchange on using AI to learn from the "Truth Tellers" — and Mike's cautionary tale about a chatbot that invented an entire tax-code provision, word for word and completely convincingly, that simply does not exist.LINKS:Mike Piper's blog — obliviousinvestor.comOpen Social Security — opensocialsecurity.comMike's books on Amazon — https://bit.ly/49BQugdOblivious Investor — https://bit.ly/4oeIacsWe're Talking Millions! (free PDF and audio) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-booksIf You Can by Bill Bernstein (free PDF) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-booksPlanVision — Mark Zoril — planvisionmn.comThe Bessembinder study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?" https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/hendrik-bessembinder-do-stocks-outperform-treasury-billsWatch the Video- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bB2ccYRLSOI&feature=youtu.be
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  Automating Your Portfolio: M1 Finance vs. Fidelity Basket Portfolios 27.05.2026 45dk

  In the final episode of the 2026 Boot Camp series, Paul Merriman sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls to tackle the last fork in the road every investor faces: how to and how much automation to use. After all the boot camp decisions — stocks versus bonds, which equity asset classes, how much fixed income, how to handle contributions and withdrawals — the final question is how much of the day-to-day management you should hand off to a tool, and which tool is right for you.Chris walks through how M1 Finance “pies” let buy-and-hold investors put their portfolios on autopilot: automated contributions, on-the-fly rebalancing as new money comes in, fractional shares, and one-button rebalancing. He explains the pre-configured Merriman portfolios — the Ultimate Buy and Hold, Worldwide and US Four-Fund, All Value, All Small Cap Value, and the Aggressive Target Date glide path in five-year increments — and an important limitation: once you grab a pie, there’s no live link back to the source, so website updates won’t change your account.Paul then makes the case for Fidelity’s Basket Portfolios as an alternative, especially for anyone uneasy about moving large sums to a younger company. He covers the flat $4.99-per-month fee regardless of account size, eligible account types, the TFLO short-term Treasury workaround for holding cash, and why Fidelity may fit investors already in the Fidelity ecosystem. The team compares trading windows, account minimums and how each firm counts the $10,000 threshold, and Daryl shares that M1 has grown from about $1 billion in 2020 to roughly $12.5 billion in assets under management.The conversation closes with practical guidance on mixing and matching Sound Investing portfolios, the question everyone’s asking — “how long do I have to wait for small cap value?” — a reminder not to flail or chase recent performance, why the 10-fund Ultimate Buy and Hold strategy still stands, and a clear explanation of the move from AVUS to AVLC and where AVSC fits.CHAPTERS00:00 - Intro03:10 - M1 Finance13:45 - Fidelity Baskets24:27 - Portfolio Combos29:55 - When to Change Allocations42:44 - AVLC vs. AVUS45:15 - OutroLINKS:Sound Investing Portfolio PiesM1 Finance Pie Tutorial (Mobile App)M1 Finance Pie Tutorial (Web Interface)
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  Bill Bernstein: 50 Years of Investing Wisdom 20.05.2026 1sa 10dk

  In this interview from the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Annual Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Bill Bernstein — neurologist, financial historian, and author of The Four Pillars of Investing and If You Can — for a wide-ranging conversation drawn from 50-plus years of investing experience.Bill explains why you're only rewarded for taking risk in well-regulated markets (and why crypto doesn't qualify), how today's market echoes the late 1990s, why the "reverse glide path" makes sense the older you get, and what the Bessembinder research really tells us about the cost of trying to pick winners. Paul and Bill also debate withdrawal strategies, the case against long bonds, and whether tilted small-value investing still works once "the bozos know about it."A masterclass in evidence-based investing from one of the most respected voices in the field.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro from Matt Longmire, Bainbridge Community Foundation02:50 Welcoming Bill Bernstein03:50 Why The Four Pillars of Investing belongs on every DIY investor's shelf05:50 Risk vs. reward — and why Bitcoin doesn't qualify08:30 How many asset classes do you really need?11:50 Where today's market resembles the late 1990s13:40 Are REITs still worth holding?15:50 The case for automating everything19:45 Why retirees need to fear sequence-of-returns risk21:30 Paul's 5% rule vs. the 4% rule25:30 The two-bucket theory and the reverse glide path27:30 Prediction markets, gambling, and "being the house"32:00 The sociological signs of a bubble35:00 Speculation vs. gambling — gold's real return40:00 The Bessembinder study: why 4% of stocks make most of the returns46:00 Why rich people plan three generations ahead49:00 Audience Q&A58:30 Tilted index funds (DFA, Avantis) — worth it?01:03:50 The future of Social Security01:07:00 Closing thoughts and book recommendationsLINKS:The Four Pillars of Investing — Bill Bernstein (2nd ed., 2023)If You Can — Free PDF from Bill BernsteinThe Bessembinder Study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?"Bainbridge Community FoundationBen Carlson's New Book on Risk and Reward
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  Boot Camp #9 - 2 Funds for Life and Target-Date Funds 13.05.2026 1sa 7dk

  Chris and Paul explain what target-date funds are and do, and how to augment them with some small-cap value to get the broad diversification benefits of the other Sound Investing portfolios.They describe several approaches and tools investors can use to determine what might be best for them.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro03:03 Target-Date Funds07:00 Glide Paths15:17 TDF Backtesting19:55 TDF Weaknesses26:20 "Easy" 2FFL34:46 "Moderate" 2FFL37:48 "Aggressive" 2FFL41:00 Customizer52:15 Calculator61:07 Books66:00 OutroLINKS: Wharton: Target Date Funds & Portfolio Choice in 401(k) Plans Morningstar: “2026 Target-Date Fund Landscape” Chris' Tables of 2 Funds for Life and Target Date Funds (PDF)
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  Q&A With Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls: Thinking Through Your Portfolio Choices 06.05.2026 1sa

  Paul sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls for the first Q&A session in months — and this one is built around the questions readers and listeners ask most often. Chris and Daryl share what they're working on next (Best-in-Class ETF updates, Target Date Fund work, telltale charts, risk-adjusted return analysis), Paul talks about a smarter way to use AI for the questions outside our wheelhouse, and the team works through six reader questions about portfolio design — from combining model portfolios to choosing between fund families.If you've ever wondered whether your portfolio is "right," this conversation will help you think about it the way Chris and Daryl do.8:30 — Should I combine the Worldwide Four Fund, U.S. Four Fund, and Worldwide All Value with a small cap value tilt?16:00 — How do I read the Sound Investing tables to compare portfolios?30:30 — Worldwide All Small Cap Value vs. the U.S. Two Fund — which is better?38:15 — My Vanguard Four Fund uses VOO, VTV, VB, and VBR — am I using the right ETFs?41:30 — How do Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, DFA, and Avantis compare on size and value exposure?46:30 — How do I get help with Merriman portfolios when I need it?Table B2 Table H2 Fine Tuning Tables Portfolio ConfiguratorYou'll get the full answers, the data behind them, and Chris and Daryl's reasoning by watching or listening.Watch the video here- https://youtu.be/BdTNOkALpuQ
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  2026 Best in Class ETF Portfolios 29.04.2026 59dk

  Paul and Chris introduce the new Avantis and DFA Best-in-Class fund family recommendations and talk about the shift away from evaluating and recommending à la carte choices from multiple fund providers.  They emphasize that the quality and breadth of the offerings from Avantis and DFAhave reached a point where it's better and more sustainable to recommend these fund families than to continually change recommendations among funds that are increasingly close unexpected performance.Best in Class ETF recommendations https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-recommendationsPortfolio Configurator https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/a941a5d4-0929-45ea-b22e-3bb82dc334ff/page/99wxc?s=hqmha3-AK5k