Yet Another Value Podcast

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  $NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital 17.08.2026 52dk

  Nubank ($NU) has 140 million customers, roughly 60% of Brazil's adult population, an efficiency ratio around 20% versus 40-60% at the legacy banks, and ROEs in the 30s. Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital has owned it for four years and thinks the market is still treating it like a risky EM bank instead of what he thinks it is: a tech company that happens to hold deposits, with a founder (David Vélez) who controls it and a runway that runs through Brazil's $100 billion banking profit pool, Mexico, Colombia, and eventually the US.My pushback is the Capital One question. Capital One was the smartest data-science lender in the room, IPO'd in 1994, went up 13x in 12 years, and then spent the next 20 as a mature bank that lagged the market. Nubank was built by ex-Capital One people, so is this 1994 or 2006? We also get into what the right cost of equity is for a Brazilian bank trading at high-teens earnings with a 30% ROE, whether MELI and Kaspi tell you EM fintech never gets a big multiple, the 13,000-customers-per-employee stat, Brazil NPLs at 15-year highs, the wave of senior departures, whether any banking fintech has ever expanded across borders, Vélez joining OpenAI's board, and my bigger worry that AI eventually commoditizes every financial product and competes away the 30% ROE.This episode is sponsored by Trata: https://trata.com/nu. Trata is two sharp buy-siders hopping on an anonymized call to talk through the risks and upside of a stock, and it's the closest thing to this podcast in written form. Go to trata.com/nu for a free Trata transcript on Nubank that I read and used heavily prepping for this call.Chapters:(00:00) Intro and Trata sponsor read(01:55) Evan Vanderveer / Vanshap Capital joins(02:50) What is Nubank: 140M customers, 60% of Brazil, 20% efficiency ratio(06:11) What the market is missing: deepening relationships, Mexico's ARPAC(08:05) The Capital One DNA: QED, Nigel Morris, data science(10:38) My pushback: is this Capital One in 2006, not 1994?(13:00) Brazil's $100B profit pool, payroll loans, David Vélez's control(15:09) Valuation: 30% ROE, high-teens P/E, and the right cost of equity for a Brazilian bank(18:47) MELI and Kaspi: does EM fintech ever earn alpha?(21:59) Fintech or bank? SoFi 2021, lending competition, too big to fail(23:55) 13,000 customers per employee vs 1,300 at legacy banks(26:15) Brazil risks: NPLs at 15-year highs, the Selic, October's election(27:45) How much of the value is Brazil vs Mexico, Colombia, and the US(29:42) Can a banking fintech expand across borders? The Citibank precedent(31:03) Senior departures, the new CFO from Visa, capping US investment(33:47) Buybacks in the low $12s and the risk of losing local expertise(36:32) Valuation bet, business bet, or jockey bet?(38:52) David Vélez joining OpenAI's board(40:46) AI inside Nubank: 60% of inquiries, Devin agents, faster credit models(42:44) Does AI commoditize banking and compete away the 30% ROE?(46:54) The US expansion: God kings or a real niche?(50:35) Closing thoughts(52:07) DisclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management 14.08.2026 47dk

  DNOW spun out of National Oilwell Varco at $35 in late 2014. A year later it was $13. Today it is around $16. Steve Gorelik's argument is that ten years of that chart is one long headwind rather than a broken business: 1,800 US rigs at the spin, under 600 now, global oil and gas investment 40% below 2014 in real dollars, and DNOW still grew margins and bought companies at 4 to 5x EBITDA the whole way through. Rigs have started ticking back up. The MRC Global merger brings $75m of synergies to two businesses that earned $325m of EBITDA apart in 2024. Management has soft-targeted $350m of EBITDA for 2027 against roughly a $3.5B enterprise value, which Steve gets to about $300m of free cash flow on a $3B market cap.My pushback is that 10x is not deep value, and the double comes almost entirely from multiple expansion back to the 5 to 6% free cash flow yield the market used to pay. Why is 10x the wrong number and not 12 or 14? We also get into the acquisitive compounder paradox, whether the incremental drilling actually shows up in US shale or somewhere else, the Oracle implementation they inherited from MRC and why they are now running it alongside SAP on purpose, the $50m of stock they bought back in the middle of that mess, and whether a business private equity would happily lever to four or six turns belongs in the public market at all. Steve's 2029 case is $30 to $32 per share.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. I am a customer and I pay for their API with my own money. Two things I use it for constantly. First, they have a huge database of fund letters wired into the API, so when I am prepping a podcast or looking at an event my agent pulls every recent letter on the name and tells me what the bull and bear cases actually are. Second, financials with sourcing attached: I ask for a model and every line links back to the company specific KPI, segment, or ratio it came from, so I can click through and see exactly where the number is from. Use my link, fiscal.ai/yav, for 15% off their AI connector.Chapters:(00:00) Nobody gets excited about a distributor(03:48) What DNOW actually sells(05:29) The roll-up playbook, without the leverage(07:13) Why the 2014 spin never worked(12:47) My pushback: does the drilling come back in the US?(14:23) Shale payback periods and rigs getting less efficient(16:50) The MRC Global deal(18:04) Upstream plus downstream: what the combination buys you(21:24) The ERP implementation they inherited(24:39) Why 2027 guidance sits below what the two did apart(28:16) Free cash flow yield as the North Star(32:40) Buying growth at 4 to 5x while trading at 8 or 9(34:42) Paying down debt and buying back stock at the same time(35:38) $50m of buybacks in the middle of the mess(37:15) Running SAP and Oracle side by side on purpose(39:49) 1,907 rigs at the spin, 571 today(40:40) The 2029 case: $30 to $32 per share(41:01) Should this company even be public?(42:56) Would private equity lever it up?(43:31) Water, utilities and data centers(45:21) Why boring distributors compoundSteve Gorelik / Firebird Management: https://fbird.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove 07.08.2026 1sa 1dk

  Paul Cerro was long Hims & Hers in 2024, short it through the compounded GLP-1 unwind, and covered when the stock broke $14 after Q1. He's long again, and his thesis has almost nothing to do with peptides, testosterone, or the international launches everyone else is excited about. Those, he says, are table stakes. Hims has never had a problem acquiring customers. It has a problem keeping them, and subscriber counts have barely moved in three quarters. His argument is that labs and patient data are what push retention and LTV up, and that is the part the market isn't paying for.I push back in three places. The data play doesn't look unique to me: Whoop and Oura own a wearable and a daily interaction, Hims owns commoditized blood work, and if Hims does unlock it, Apple or Amazon can walk in on top of them. The 2030 targets ask you to double trust management, once on 4x-ing EBITDA and again on a very heavily adjusted EBITDA number, from a CEO Paul says he wouldn't trust to walk his dog. And when peptides go legal, I think a hundred Instagram churn-and-burn startups compete away the customer acquisition edge. Paul's answers are worth the hour, especially the balance-sheet argument for a price war and the Ro story. We close on what to watch in the August 10 print.Paul's Hims & Hers write-up: https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-whoever-controls-the-data-controls-the-industryThis episode is sponsored by Trata: https://trata.com/hims. Trata is two investors who hop on and talk about a stock they're both in, sometimes one long and one short, sometimes both on the same side, but always about what actually drives the stock up or down. Trata now has an MCP, so you can point your AI agent at a company and pull the transcript, which is one of the first things I do when I start looking at a name. They have four HIMS calls, all less than a year old and one about a month old, and if you follow the link you can get their most recent HIMS coverage as a free trial.Chapters:(00:00) Long it, shorted it, now long again(02:57) Paul on the setup right now(04:17) What he learned building Ro(05:19) How cash-pay healthcare actually works(11:54) The original 2024 Hims thesis(13:26) The compounding loophole and its expiration date(15:58) Covering the short and going long again(18:54) Acquisition was never the problem, retention is(20:35) Why the money in healthcare is chasing data(22:33) My pushback: what is unique about Hims' data?(26:32) Hims versus Whoop, Oura and the Apple Watch(29:21) Valuation: 30x 2026 EBITDA, 6x 2030(32:56) Why international makes the targets conservative(34:12) Double trusting a heavily adjusted number(36:16) Icarus, Napoleon and the Teflon Don(40:05) On putting too much faith in regulators(43:49) Peptides and the market nobody has priced(45:36) Chinese peptides and what is in the vial(50:12) Can a hundred Instagram startups undercut Hims?(54:40) Why the balance sheet decides a price war(56:13) What to watch in the August 10 print(57:40) CVS, Walgreens, Walmart and Amazon(1:00:49) Closing thoughtsPaul Cerro / Cedar Grove: https://www.cedargroveresearch.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  August 2026 Random Ramblings 04.08.2026 22dk

  Strategy filed an 8K this morning: they sold $300 million of stock, sold $100 million of bitcoin, and put the proceeds into buying back roughly $80 million of their own preferred at a discount. So you have a company trading over NAV, diluting shareholders, and selling the one asset it exists to hold, and it is still trading at a premium. Management is presenting the move from "one-way capital issuer" to "multi-way capital issuer" like it is a financial engineering breakthrough. It is just normal capital allocation, and it took them five years to get there.That is the through line for this whole ramble: selling. Strategy made a genuinely good call in 2020 and then never sold a thing. Situational Awareness made a generational call, long AI winners and short AI losers, went up something like 10x on it, never rebalanced, kept pressing a trade that naturally degrosses, and blew up when software went from 20 back to 30 and semis went from 400 back to 370. I do a miniature version of the same thing every time I decide in advance that I will start trimming at 15 a stock I bought at 10, and I am not sure that plan is as smart as it feels. I also get into why thematic trades are so hard to sell when there is no price to anchor to, whether the crossover funds actually had an AI information edge or just conviction, why I cannot make the memory valuations work under any assumption I am willing to make, and where I think the real opportunity is: the beaten-up AI power names Situational owned in size, several of which are not trading far above the DCF of the contracts they already have.Situational Awareness, crossover funds, and the AI edge: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/crossover-funds-ai-edge-situational-awarenessThis episode is sponsored by Trata: https://www.trata.com/glxy. Trata is two buysiders hopping on a call and talking through a stock they are actually working on, which is the fastest way I know to get up to speed on a name. They also have an MCP now that connects to Claude and ChatGPT, so the first thing I do on a new name is run the Trata search and see what buysiders are really saying. That link is a preview of the Galaxy call I mention on the episode.Chapters:(00:00) Cold open: three things on my mind(02:11) Sponsor: Trata(03:55) Why I am recording a bonus ramble(04:49) Strategy's new 8K: sell stock, sell bitcoin, buy back the preferred(06:05) "Multi-way capital issuer" is just normal capital allocation(06:58) A great call in 2020, and then they never sold(08:21) Investors are good at buying and bad at selling(09:37) Is my own sell plan its own trap?(11:37) The Situational Awareness blowup(13:19) The trouble with thematics: there is no price(14:44) Micro versus macro, and the software buy signal I missed(16:22) Do the crossover funds have an AI information edge?(18:41) Why I cannot get to the memory valuations(19:04) The opportunity in the beaten-up AI power names(22:05) Wrapping upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/Disclosures: I am short $MSTR and long $GLXY. Nothing on this podcast is investment advice. Please do your own work.
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  Management interviews: the most underdeveloped skill in investing | Ross O'Toole 02.08.2026 49dk

  Management interviews might be the most underdeveloped skill in fundamental investing. Ross O'Toole has been investing for 25 years and read over 500 investment books, and he couldn't find a single one on how to actually conduct an investor-management interview.... so he wrote Breaking the Script, a field guide to getting management teams off their rehearsed talking points. We get into why "what" questions beat "why" questions, whether you should grade a plastic surgery CEO and a coal company CEO on the same curve, the case for recording your management meetings, and why asking for examples is one of the biggest double edged swords in investing.I push back with my standing worry: management teams are really, really good salesmen, and I always walk out of these meetings wondering if I'm the patsy at the poker table. Ross's answers (build a longitudinal baseline over repeat interviews, ask for the negative example every time you get a positive one, and save the hard questions for the crescendo) are why this book went straight to the top of my "hand it to an intern" list.Grab Ross's book, Breaking the Script: https://amzn.to/4fLg8ROThis episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data platform for global equities. In addition to their web-based terminal, they offer API access to real-time fundamental data: 20+ years of financial statements, ratios, segments, and KPIs, with data updating within minutes of earnings reports, not days. I'm not just an advertiser; I signed up with my own money to plug their API into the AI tools I've been building. Use my link, fiscal.ai/yav, for 15% off.Chapters:(00:00:00) Introduction(00:02:00) Why management interviews are a double edged sword(00:03:47) Why Ross wrote Breaking the Script(00:07:15) Are we deluding ourselves? Testing management credibility(00:11:53) Should you grade CEOs on a curve across industries?(00:14:44) "What" vs "why": framing contentious questions(00:18:27) Are interviews actually an alpha source?(00:19:39) Where management matters most: deep value vs tech(00:22:32) Would interviewing 2008 Zuckerberg have helped?(00:25:14) Preparation and repeat interviews(00:29:20) Should you record management meetings?(00:31:54) Asking for examples: conviction builder or sales pitch?(00:34:00) Always ask for the negative example(00:36:00) Making management grade their own execution(00:38:20) Interviewing companies under activist pressure(00:41:30) Buffett's silver bullet question, reframed(00:46:02) Question order: crescendo to the hard stuff(00:48:29) Closing thoughtsRoss O'Toole / Breaking the Script: https://amzn.to/4fLg8ROLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  July 2026 Random Ramblings 27.07.2026 27dk

  Investing is a game of arrogance. The base rate when you buy any stock is that it just does the market return, so every position you hold is a bet that you know something the market doesn't. My July ramble is really one question asked five ways: when do you look in the mirror and admit you were wrong? I walk through my three-year rule on a single name (if it has gone nowhere for three years, the problem is probably you, not the market), and the harder version, a value fund that has underperformed for a decade.I use myself as the example. I saw AI inflecting in late 2024 and didn't pull the trigger, because I'm a value and event guy and I didn't see the bet, and a lot of those names then went on a generational run. Was that discipline or a mental block? From there I get into why you're effectively short Nvidia if you don't own it and you're benchmarked to the S&P, the Fundsmith letter walking back its principles as the cautionary tale on both sides, my own April 2025 book (the net-cash biotech and the Nebius trade I sold way too early), and why London increasingly trades like an emerging market: a takeover wave, private value miles above public value, and the frustration of owning cheap names that only move if someone buys the whole company.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with 20+ years of statements, ratios, filings, segments and KPIs, a web-based terminal, and a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamental data straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Use fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off.Chapters:(0:00) Intro and episode preview(2:50) Sponsor: fiscal.ai(4:16) Investing is a game of arrogance: beating the base rate(6:18) The three-year rule, and when a whole strategy has underperformed(9:19) Missing the AI trade: discipline, mental block, and the Fundsmith letter(14:42) If you don't own Nvidia, you're short it(16:46) My April 2025 book: Nebius, net-cash biotech, and selling winners too early(21:47) Why London trades like an emerging market: takeouts and dead stocks(27:08) WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $LNW: a slot machine oligopoly at half Aristocrat's multiple | Zack Buckley 24.07.2026 53dk

  Light & Wonder ($LNW) is one of three companies in the slot machine oligopoly, with 70%+ recurring revenue, and it trades at 7-8x EBITDA while Aristocrat, its closest peer and arguably its slower-growing twin, trades at roughly double that. Zach Buckley thinks the market is wrong on almost every count: the stock has traded like a SaaS chart on AI fears even though slot content has almost no AI exposure, the Street doesn't believe 2028 targets from a management team that already hit the last three-year guide it set, and the soft first half is a game-launch timing story (Aristocrat launched in H1, Light & Wonder's slate lands in H2), not share loss. Zach has sized this the largest he's ever sized anything, and you can hear it.I push back where I can: whether Caesars could ever build its own boxes (Zach: Marriott doesn't build elevators), why management is paying down debt to appease Australian shareholders instead of murdering the share count at these prices, what the Dragon Train settlement really cost them, and SciPlay's genuine AI risk. We also cover the move to a sole Australian listing, the Grover charitable-gaming acquisition at ~7.5x EBITDA, and what would actually break the thesis.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense: https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right, but can you trace the answer back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove it? AlphaSense's AI platform is built for exactly that: over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls, with every answer linked back to an exact, verifiable source. See it for yourself with a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp.Chapters:(00:00:05) Introducing Light & Wonder(00:03:09) Light & Wonder's transformation(00:05:57) Australian listing creates opportunity(00:08:36) Recurring revenue business model(00:09:39) Why game quality matters(00:11:45) Business quality meets valuation(00:13:31) Explaining Aristocrat's valuation premium(00:17:15) AI offers productivity upside(00:19:08) SciPlay faces greater AI risk(00:21:20) Barriers protect game development(00:23:56) Casinos avoid vertical integration(00:29:05) Why Australia made sense(00:30:25) Dragon Train litigation explained(00:32:14) Assessing lingering litigation impact(00:34:11) Why investors doubt targets(00:36:04) Short-termism drives investor skepticism(00:39:41) Balancing buybacks and deleveraging(00:42:39) Grover acquisition adds growth(00:43:55) Electronic pull tabs explained(00:47:14) What could break thesis(00:50:41) AI fears create opportunities(00:52:32) Zach summarizes investment thesisZach Buckley / Buckley Capital Partners: https://www.buckleycapitalpartners.com/Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $PRKS: SeaWorld, an 8% cash yield, and a possible 80% short squeeze | Hawkins Entrekin 20.07.2026 1sa

  United Parks ($PRKS) owns SeaWorld and Busch Gardens, trades around 8x EBITDA with an 8%+ unlevered cash yield, and is plowing basically 100% of free cash flow into buybacks while Hill Path sits on roughly 60% of the stock. Adjust for passive holders and effective short interest lands somewhere near 80% of float; Bloomberg's short squeeze score is 93 out of 100. Hawkins Entrekin (Valyte, and the guy who pitched Vornado on this podcast right at the bottom of New York real estate) thinks you're buying irreplaceable hard assets below replacement cost, with a squeeze as the cherry on top. His fair value: low $80s against a stock in the high $40s.It's catnip to me, which is exactly why I push back. EBITDA fell from roughly $700 million to $600 million in an inflationary environment; is that Epic Universe's one-time supply hit, or a sign SeaWorld is the industry's swing capacity? Management has blamed weather in 15 of the last 16 quarters (I counted). And when a 60% owner is pushing every dollar into buybacks while attendance sits 20% below the 2008 peak, you have to ask whether this is being run for long-term operations or just for the spreadsheet.Hawkins' United Parks write-up: https://valyteresearch.substack.com/p/united-parks-and-resortsThe Trata call I used to prep: https://www.trata.com/prksThis episode is sponsored by AlphaSense: https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right, but can you trace the answer back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove it? AlphaSense is the AI platform built for that: over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls, with every answer linked back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp.Chapters:(00:00) Intro: everything I love in a stock, and why that scares me(01:34) AlphaSense (sponsor)(02:49) Welcome back Hawkins Entrekin(03:41) What is United Parks?(04:44) The short squeeze setup: ~80% of effective float(05:50) A real estate lens on theme parks(08:36) What are the shorts seeing?(10:32) EBITDA went from $700M to $600M; why?(12:01) Epic Universe and the new-supply explanation(17:27) Weather excuses: 15 of the last 16 quarters(19:44) Capex and the asset-stripping check(24:08) The real estate angles (and OpCo/PropCo cold water)(28:19) What's the excess land worth?(30:34) Can you comp a theme park on NOI?(32:13) Valuation: low-$80s fair value vs a high-$40s stock(34:33) Why 8x when Blackstone paid 12-14x? Plus replacement cost(40:45) Hill Path at 60%: squeeze, take-private, or sale?(46:05) Attendance is down 20% from the 2008 peak(48:47) The bulls have been early for three years(56:58) What is Valyte?(58:28) Seritage, Elme, and a hard stopHawkins Entrekin / Valyte: https://www.valytedata.com/Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $CBZ: stop the buybacks and restart the M&A flywheel? | Reference Equity 14.07.2026 58dk

  Ryan Bunn (Reference Equity) has a public proposal for CBIZ ($CBZ): stop buying back stock at 9x earnings and restart the M&A flywheel that compounded revenue at 13%/year and took EBIT margins from 9% to 14% over the last decade. For someone like me who has always been a sucker for share buybacks, "stop the buybacks and issue equity" lands like a knife right in the gut, so I make him defend every piece of it.We get into whether the $2.3B Marcum deal (the largest accounting acquisition ever, with the stock down ~70% since) deserves a mulligan, whether the multiple got crushed by 3.4x leverage or by AI headline fear, whether AI lets the Big Four come downmarket and eat CBIZ's middle-market lunch (or lets superstar producers hang their own flag), and whether long-term investors would really put primary equity onto the balance sheet at no discount. Ryan's math: the market prices credit risk, small 6-9x EBITDA bolt-ons restart the compounding machine, and a delevered, re-rated CBIZ has 100%+ upside.Ryan's Restarting the Flywheel site (proposal + deck): https://cbizflywheel.com/This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right; the summary is clean, but can you trace it back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove the answer? AlphaSense owns the content (over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls) and the retrieval layer on top of it, so every answer links back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavpChapters:(0:00) Intro: an activist pitch to STOP the buybacks(1:15) AlphaSense(2:31) What is CBIZ ($CBZ)?(5:01) Ryan's proposal: restart the M&A flywheel(7:44) Buybacks at 9x earnings vs. getting back to M&A(10:38) Post-Marcum, are there even deals left to do?(12:52) The AI risk: offshoring and the Big Four coming downmarket(19:24) Does AI let superstar accountants hang their own flag?(23:41) The Marcum deal: mulligan or strategic masterstroke?(28:59) Private equity competition and winner's curse(31:38) Valuation: 9x free cash flow at 3.4x leverage(40:00) Does delevering actually re-rate the stock?(45:47) Management, the board, and alignment(49:58) Why issue equity now? The FMC example(56:57) Ryan's real ask: end the muddled capital allocation(57:38) WrapRyan Bunn / Reference Equity: https://cbizflywheel.com/Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  Adam Wyden: buying someone else's pain in Stagwell $STGW and Driven Brands $DRVN | ADW Capital 07.07.2026 59dk

  Adam Wyden runs one of the most concentrated books I know, and he came on to make the case for two stocks the market has basically left for dead: Stagwell ($STGW) and Driven Brands ($DRVN). On Stagwell, his pitch is that this is not a dying ad agency but a marketing-services and data business compounding toward $700M of EBITDA by 2028, sitting at a 20%+ free cash flow yield because it came public through a no-fanfare reverse merger and carried a dual-class and TRA overhang that kept institutions out. On Driven, he thinks the sum of the parts (Collision, Autoglass, and a 50-year-old franchise stub around Take Five) is worth far more than a low-teens stock, and he has been loud enough about it that the company started disclosing numbers within 48 hours of one of his letters.I push back on both. On Stagwell I keep coming back to the agency model itself: WPP, IPG and the rest have trailed the S&P for 20 years because the human capital walks out the door every night and takes the economics with it, and AI arguably makes that worse. On Driven I press him on why a business this cheap has stayed cheap for four years running, and whether the corporate cost and the leverage ever get fixed without a private-equity owner. Adam's answer, more or less: the market doesn't care until it cares, and the best money he has ever made is buying someone else's five-year pain right before the aha moment.This episode is sponsored by fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities and one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT, so you can pipe real-time fundamental data straight into your LLM. I signed up with my own money to plug it into my Claude cowork setup: more than 20 years of statements, ratios, segments and KPIs, updated within minutes of earnings, not days. Use my link fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off.Chapters:(00:00) Intro: Adam Wyden and two names, Stagwell and Driven(02:44) Stagwell $STGW: the bull case on a marketing-services roll-up(05:00) Mark Penn and how modern Stagwell came together(08:40) Does AI break the ad agency model?(12:50) The data moat and Stagwell's agentic operating system(19:00) Is Stagwell a jockey bet on Mark Penn?(24:20) Free cash flow, buybacks, and a stock priced to die(28:20) Undervalued for four years: what is the market missing?(32:15) Adam's activist stake and the August 14th tease(37:00) Driven Brands $DRVN: the auto aftermarket bull case(41:30) EVs vs ICE and why the aftermarket keeps compounding(45:20) Sum-of-the-parts: Collision, Autoglass, and the franchise stub(51:30) Activism at Driven, Roark, and where this business belongs(58:30) Closing: the AI losers that become AI winnersLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $VEON: a busted EM telecom hiding a 4x? | Samit Umatiya, UIG Funds 01.07.2026 1sa 2dk

  $VEON trades like a busted emerging-markets telecom, but it owns 84% of Ukraine's Kyivstar and a Pakistani fintech, JazzCash, that already moves 15% of the country's GDP. Samit Umatiya of UIG Funds lays out the sum-of-the-parts case for why the holdco could be worth roughly 4x today's price, and Andrew pushes back hard the whole way: a not-so-storied history of value destruction, a sanctioned 45% shareholder, capital controls, and a long graveyard of telecoms that bungled every growth opportunity they ever had. The result is one long push and pull on whether the upside is real this time.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with a web terminal plus a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamentals straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Andrew uses it himself. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 The setup: a sum-of-the-parts EM telecom nobody talks about01:31 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai02:35 Who is Samit Umatiya and what is VEON04:19 Vimpelcom to VEON: the history and the Russia exit08:14 Why is the market asleep on this name?11:31 The sum of the parts: Kyivstar plus four frontier markets13:59 Bridging the EV gap: Andrew's $8B vs the bull's $3B holdco16:36 Valuing a telecom on revenue: the "it's a tech company" case17:54 JazzCash: 15% of Pakistan's GDP, never independently valued21:00 The bridge to ~$1B of free cash flow and a 4x23:40 Organic vs. bolt-on digital growth24:34 Capital controls and getting cash out of the op-cos27:11 What the market is missing: demographics and under-penetration31:09 Starlink: competitor or partner in Ukraine's rebuild?35:31 Digital stickiness and retention37:42 The Kaspi problem: a dominant super app that never re-rated39:25 The AI 1440 strategy and a sovereign-AI moat42:31 Is telecom just structurally bad at capturing growth?45:11 Capital allocation and the next catalyst: a JazzCash spin49:38 The elephant in the room: LetterOne's sanctioned 45% stake54:05 Geopolitical turmoil as a feature, not a flaw55:24 Is that 45% block actually an opportunity?57:09 Founder DNA, CEO Kaan Terzioglu, and the spin-off playbook1:01:56 WrapUIG Funds (Samit Umatiya) - https://uigfunds.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists on MSA Safety: a hidden quality compounder? $MSA 30.06.2026 45dk

  MSA Safety ($MSA) is the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the "canary" that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today.EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA's owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right?Team MSA's pitch deck is linked here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gv1oj18pawqrmeq7lai4j/MSA-Pershing-Square-Challenge-vYAVP.pdf?rlkey=8l5vkpkr7r26oi0k7wx5fcf0h&st=g4ow2fxo&dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata: trata.com. Trata is recorded, anonymized conversations between two buysiders who actually follow the same company, about an hour each, with a full transcript. When you are getting up to speed on a name, there is nothing like hearing two people who research it talk it through. Check them out at trata.com.Chapters:00:00 A quality compounder hiding at a market multiple01:24 Sponsor: Trata02:47 Meet Team MSA: EJ, Craig and Bob05:50 Why they picked MSA: an underfollowed, simple business07:50 What MSA is: the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety10:24 The three segments, and why detection leads11:51 Fixed vs portable gas detection13:15 The subscription shift: the canary that sings to the whole worksite16:40 The moat: durability, owned sensors and a long replacement runway17:21 Market share, and why Blackline got taken private21:32 Fire safety: the G1 and the mandated SCBA replacement cycle23:38 Valuation: a double to ~$350 by 2030, and the reverse DCF25:43 My pushback: a 20x compounder that doesn't scream alpha27:00 Why management sandbags the connected and SCBA upside28:46 A stock for the patient: the J-curve and the long horizon31:47 Primary research: site visits, IR access and r/firefighting36:18 Becoming a tech company: 40% of engineers now in software38:10 The tier-one halo: win LA or Memphis, win the region42:08 Capital allocation: the liability divestiture, dividends and a $500M buyback44:13 Wrap: where to find the team and the deckTeam MSA (Columbia Business School): pitch deck linked aboveLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $FOX dropped 25% buying $ROKU. Is the market wrong? | Accrued Interest 28.06.2026 1sa

  Fox's stock is down about 25% since it agreed to buy Roku for $22 billion, and the market has decided the deal is a blunder. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong. His case: Roku controls roughly 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, about 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the "front door" to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs in North America. Look under the surface and the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you account for Roku's barely-tapped ad levers and synergies.We get into the homepage that became the new "Netflix homepage," why Fox keeps making the smartest M&A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like "true value stocks" to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder.See Simeon's post on Fox / Roku here: https://www.accruedint.com/p/the-strait-of-roku-how-fox-seizedThis episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's telling you which tools actually give you an edge. I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process.Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What's coming: Fox-Roku, plus Spotify, Google and Meta01:08 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense02:24 Guest intro: Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest03:05 The Fox-Roku deal and why Simeon thinks it makes sense05:30 Roku as the "Strait of Hormuz" of streaming (44% of viewing)06:25 Why Fox has the smartest M&A team in media07:55 Buying the "front door": ~100M connected TVs10:03 The Roku homepage as the new "Netflix homepage"13:44 The ad-sales levers hiding under the multiple16:31 Valuation: 22x EBITDA, ~16-17x free cash flow with synergies18:01 My pushback: Fox down 25%, winner's curse, thin synergies19:35 The real risk of staying pure-play (Viacom, Paramount)24:51 Rebundling and why everyone's partnered up by 202826:08 Is Fox+Roku actually better, or could anyone have bought this?28:01 Cord-cutting, YouTube TV, and the Disney bloody nose32:07 The Fox bet Simeon likes most: Tubi38:30 Why now? The 50% streaming inflection and a shrinking buyer pool42:21 Does AI slop break or boost the distribution thesis?48:06 The gotcha: bullish Roku, bearish Spotify (the Pokemon theory of media)52:22 Google and Meta as "true value stocks"56:55 The complexity discount, Meta's enterprise tools, and founder control59:13 Wrap and where to find Accrued InterestSimeon McMillan / Accrued Interest: https://accruedinterest.substack.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  June 2026 Random Ramblings 25.06.2026 38dk

  SpaceX is buying Cursor for ~$60B, and one of the early backers was SBF. So was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? That's where June's random ramblings start. From there: why I've flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier, whether deep subject-matter expertise gets MORE valuable as the world fills with AI slop, why legacy brands (KPMG, CBS, People) might actually gain power in an AI world, why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a tell for underperformance, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What's on the menu this month02:05 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense03:22 Was SBF the greatest VC of all time? (Cursor, SpaceX, Anthropic)09:48 Do any frauds or blowups hide assets this valuable? (GGP, Enron, EOG)11:42 Why I flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier13:41 Why AI rewards the creative, and the top 0.1% problem16:18 AI slop and the rising return on deep expertise (Knicks, ABVX)20:12 KPMG's hallucinated AI report and secondhand hallucinations21:57 Does brand get MORE valuable in an AI world? (CBS, People, TMZ, ChatGPT licensing)25:14 Why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a lie28:50 Forced selling, diamond hands, and the seven-years-of-underperformance letter32:02 My three-year rule32:53 Polymarket, MicroStrategy, and the limits of the rulebook35:00 Prediction markets are reflexive: why nobody's waging "Polymarket wars" yet37:36 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  $YOU.L: is YouGov really an AI loser? | Jonathan Cohen, Zipperline Capital 21.06.2026 1sa 6dk

  The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 Why YouGov could be the AI winner the market is misreading02:56 Why Jonathan Cohen runs a UK and Europe small/mid-cap book08:01 Why you can never compare UK and US multiples13:08 What UK analyst coverage actually tells you17:37 The shift toward UK buybacks and capital allocation22:00 The "buybacks kill liquidity" myth25:11 What YouGov really is: a proprietary data business31:19 Inside the panel: why people answer, and why retention is the moat36:52 Why the market thinks YouGov is an AI loser38:19 The bull case: why AI makes YouGov more valuable40:55 Synthetic data, and why it breaks46:28 Trust as a moat in a world of AI slop52:27 Pushback: Chegg, Wix, and the real AI losers56:51 Content businesses vs distribution businesses01:00:14 Music, media, and what compounds through disruption01:05:38 ClosingLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD 15.06.2026 53dk

  Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsDisclosure: long DCH and NOMDChapters:0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$69:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $1215:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  Adam May on $ABVX's blowout data and subsequent stock crash 10.06.2026 1sa 13dk

  Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here. Chapters:00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $10040:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel01:12:10 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR
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  Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists pitch Amadeus $AMS | the toll booth on global travel 04.06.2026 52dk

  Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.comChapters:00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar01:00 Sponsor: Trata02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID34:21 The air-distribution network effect35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary51:02 Closing thoughtsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  May 2026 Random Ramblings 31.05.2026 27dk

  A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 Five things I'm rambling on this month01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai03:16 "We'll never have problems again": a market that won't quit04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations09:54 Five stocks, half the S&P's gains10:51 Is AI coming for the investor's job?13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take20:04 Why "the cycle is dead" always worries me21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small oneLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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  Pershing Square Challenge 2026 third place: Celsius $CELH 28.05.2026 44dk

  Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celhChapters:0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion1:13 Sponsor: Trata2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage43:38 Wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/