Street Talk

Épisodes

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  Banks Tackle CRE Maturity Wall, But Rate Risks Loom 07.09.2026 22min

  A sharp rise in commercial real estate originations in the second quarter of 2026, particularly among banks, signals a pivotal moment for the industry. Lenders are proactively addressing a massive wall of maturing loans, but the outlook is clouded by sticky inflation and evidence of an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve. In this episode of "Street Talk," Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), unpacked the drivers behind a 16% year-over-year increase in total production captured by the organization's Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. The most striking figure from the survey was a 61% surge in the origination index among depositories. Fratantoni explained that this came in a direct response to a well-documented looming challenge. "Our estimate was that in 2026, there was going to be $875 billion worth of scheduled maturities for commercial mortgage loans this year and about half of those were sitting on depository balance sheets," he said. He noted that banks entered the year determined to address these loans, seeing it as an opportunity to, as he put it, "redesign the balance sheet a bit and provide financing, grow where you can and then also do that compositional change leaning into the areas of the market where you have more optimism." While property types like industrial and multifamily continue to show strength, even the beleaguered office and retail sectors have shown signs of recovery. Fratantoni cautioned that the demand picture for multifamily is shifting, however, partly due to the demographic effect of a smaller Gen Z population cohort and changes in immigration policy, which could lead to a slowdown in new construction. The MBA's Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index showed the sharpest year-over-year growth in office and retail production off of low bases with single-digit gains in industrial and multifamily volume off considerably higher bases. Credits: Host: Tim Zawacki Guest: Michael Fratatoni Produced By: Feranmi Adeoshun Published With Assistance From: Melissa Peterson, Feranmi Adeoshun, Sophie Carr
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  Newly Merged Credit Union Sits On The 'Launchpad' Of Industry Innovation 03.08.2026 30min

  Street Talk returns with new host, Head of Financial Institutions Research and Lead North American Insurance Analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Tim Zawacki. Seven months into the largest merger of US credit unions on record, First Technology Federal Credit Union President and CEO Shruti Miyashiro is focused on both the short-term intricacies of bringing together two bi-coastal institutions and the longer-term evolution of the business of banking. The Jan 1st combination of First Tech, a San Jose-based credit union with a branch network focused on California's Silicon Valley and Oregon's Willamette Valley, with Digital FCU, a Marlborough, Mass.-based institution with a significant presence along Boston's Route 128 technology corridor, unites institutions with many similarities in their member compositions but the logistical and cultural complexities of bringing together entities headquartered some 3,100 miles apart. In this episode, Miyashiro discusses the challenges and opportunities associated with the integration process and the evolution of consumer banking more broadly. And she offers a staunch defense of role played by credit unions in the US banking system. In this episode: Progress First Tech has already made in creating the nation's sixth-largest credit union by asset size and the integration work that remains. The role that First Tech believes branches will or will not play in the bank of the future.  Why Miyashiro believes US credit unions should continue to enjoy a federal corporate income tax exemption. More S&P Global Market Intelligence content: Banking Essentials Newsletter Webinar: Transforming Credit Unions: Key M&A and Technology Trends in U.S. and Canadian Markets | S&P Global For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Updated US Banking Industry Projections US credit union deal count drops in H1 2026, but merger sizes stay big Credits: Host: Tim Zawacki Guest: Shruti Miyashiro  Produced By: Carl Schmidt & Feranmi Adeoshun Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr
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  Ep. 150 - 12 words for community banks to live by 04.06.2026 43min

  In banking, boring wins, according to veteran bank investor Joe Stieven. The CEO of Stieven Capital Advisors discussed what drives value and how community banks will remain relevant over the next decade at S&P Global Market Intelligence's annual community bankers conference. The investor said his 12-word philosophy has guided decades of capital allocation through COVID, rate cycles, Silicon Valley's collapse, and now tariffs and geopolitical shock. Stieven says all banks should ask those 12 words, "How does this impact our earnings and tangible book value per share," when contemplating any strategy. The investor also discussed why he sees overhead discipline as a way of life, how AI is reshaping the sector, and what the M&A landscape looks like from his chair. 
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  Ep. 149 - Dr. George Friedman sees old alliance as obsolete, new bilateral order as U.S. shifts from Europe to China 11.05.2026 51min

  The post-WWII global order is entering a new era. In the episode recorded live at the S&P Global Market Intelligence's Annual Community Bankers Conference on May 6, geopolitical strategist and author Dr. George Friedman discusses the conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine, how America reinvents itself through instability, and the pivotal U.S.-China summit on May 14. Dr. Friedman's core argument: The entire Bretton Woods system—NATO, multilateral trade, the U.S.-European alliance—was built to contain the Soviet Union. The episode explores Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a bilateral U.S.-China order that could reshape global economics for a generation. Statements made by persons who are not S&P Global employees represent their own views and not necessarily those of S&P Global.
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  Ep. 148 - Banks, AI and the not so "hidden" exposure to private credit 24.03.2026 34min

  A few blips tied to private credit and loans to nonbank financial institutions have weighed on the bank group recently and come at the same time at the group faced pressure over concerns that greater adoption of artificial intelligence could threaten many traditional jobs and ultimately lead to higher levels of unemployment. However, some bank analysts argue that both issues might be overblown and that AI in particular could lead to efficiency gains for banks. In the episode, Greg Hertrich, managing director and head of US Depository Strategies at Nomura, discusses the real risks behind bank lending to private credit firms and nonbank financial institutions. Hertrich explains why these exposures aren't as "hidden" as some fear, why banks are better capitalized and more transparent than in past cycles, and how today's credit environment differs from previous crises. He also tackled concerns about AI's impact on the job market and argued that AI could prove an efficiency gain for banks rather than pose a great threat to the economy and banks' loan portfolios.
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  Ep. 147 - KBW CEO sees M&A reboot, green lights for regional bank valuations 13.02.2026 34min

  After years of trading at the steepest discount in the broader market—dead last among all major sectors—the banking industry is finally positioned to narrow that gap, according to KBW CEO Tom Michaud.  In the episode, Michaud said that the best fundamental environment in years, historic levels of excess capital, a once in generational change in the regulatory environment and rebounding M&A activity should support stronger valuations for regional banks in 2026. The executive also shared his takeaways from the annual Acquire or Be Acquire conference and his outlook for bank deal activity. He further discussed why scale matters and the impact of shareholder activism in the banking sector. 
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  Ep. 146 - Strong fundamentals, increasing M&A activity set the table for small cap bank stocks 21.01.2026 24min

  While large bank stocks have significantly outperformed their smaller counterparts over the last few years, the tide could finally be turning, according to Jonah Marcus, partner and portfolio manager at Endeavour Capital Advisors, Inc. In the episode, Marcus said there are positive tailwinds for the banking sector, including increasing bank M&A activity, net interest margin expansion and deregulation, that will serve as a greater benefit for small and mid-cap banks. The veteran investor also discussed the valuation disparity between large and small banks; his outlook for credit quality and bank M&A activity, and the importance of technology and a bank's data strategy.
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  Ep. 145 - Bank stocks are divorced from fundamentals 28.11.2025 39min

  Bank stocks are trading at their cheapest levels relative to the broader market in a decade, but a confluence of catalysts, including rebounding M&A activity, deregulation and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could finally unlock value for the sector, according to Mendon Capital's Anton Schutz Sr. and Anton Schutz Jr. In the episode, the father-son investment team discuss the current state of bank stocks and what lies ahead for the sector. The Schutz team addresses the frustration many long-term bank investors feel— strong fundamental performance hasn't translated to higher stock prices. They downplayed recent concerns over losses related to loans to nondepository financial institutions and expressed confidence in the sector's credit fundamentals, contrasting the conservative lending practices of regulated banks with the riskier positions being taken in private credit markets. They also see several potential drivers for bank stock performance, including renewed M&A activity, regulatory changes favoring deregulation and the potential for interest rate normalization to benefit margins. The investors further discussed how AI and technology could dramatically improve bank cost structures, with particular emphasis on back-office operations rather than revenue generation.
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  Ep. 144 - Decoding banks' third-quarter earnings and rebounding M&A activity 27.10.2025 32min

  Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and investors' concerns about potential slippage in credit quality, U.S. banks delivered strong third-quarter results that beat expectations across the board. In the episode, Chris Nichols, Director of Capital Markets at South State, discusses third-quarter earnings trends, including the continued resilience of consumer spending, the stabilization of credit quality after several quarters of deterioration, and the unexpected strength in fee income. Nichols and Street Talk host Nathan Stovall dissect the controversy around loans to nondepository financial institutions (NDFI) following several high-profile credit losses, debating whether these incidents represent isolated frauds or canaries in the coal mine. Nichols also highlighted strategic imperatives for banks heading into 2026 and argued that now is the time to rebuild deposit franchises through product innovation and marketing creativity—not rate competition. Nichols and Stovall also explore the reawakening M&A landscape as regulatory headwinds ease and activist investors enter the fray.
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  Ep. 143 - Stablecoins vs. traditional banking: Who wins the battle for depositors? 15.10.2025 30min

  The world of cryptocurrencies has seen no shortage of upheaval, but regulatory clarity that has arrived with recent legislation is expected to lead to greater adoption of stablecoins. Some market participants and banks are worried the growth could lead to deposit cannibalization. In the episode, S&P Global Market Intelligence fintech analysts Jordan McKee and Sampath Sharma, and FIG Research Head Nathan Stovall talked about stablecoins, changes in regulation that could spur greater adoption, the potential threat to bank deposits, how traditional financial institutions are responding, and the challenges to further stablecoin growth.
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  Ep. 142 - Despite looming rate cuts, strong deposit franchises still take the cake 18.09.2025 30min

  While peak funding costs are in the rearview mirror, investors and bank acquirers continue to assign higher values to institutions with lower-cost deposit franchises. In the episode, S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts Nathan Stovall and Zain Tariq discuss which banks have the strongest deposit franchises, what attributes they have and how deposits continue to drive valuation in the banking sector. They also share takeaways from the inaugural Deposit Conference, co-hosted with South State, where experts shared their views on niche strategies and the state of the competitive and regulatory landscape.
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  Ep. 141 - Signs of stronger bank M&A emerge as serial acquirers, large transactions return 30.07.2025 28min

  Bank M&A activity is showing signs of life, and a much awaited rebound in bank deal activity could be in store.  In this episode, Christopher Olsen, managing partner at Olsen Palmer, shared his view of the bank M&A market and why community banks are selling at this point in the cycle. The veteran deal adviser said shareholder liquidity, and board and management succession remain significant drivers of sales activity. He also said that buyers have greater regulatory support to announce multiple transactions in a relatively short period of time and are seeking scale to compete with both traditional banks and nonbank competitors vying for market share. He also noted that some recently announced large transactions demonstrate increased deal discussions and the promise of greater activity in the future. 
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  Ep. 140 - InterBank CEO C.K. Lee talks keys to high performance, producing a 3-plus% ROAA 21.07.2025 31min

  InterBank President and CEO C.K. Lee runs one of the highest-performing banks in the country. The $4.7 billion, Oklahoma City-based bank has produced a pretax return on average assets of 3.30% or higher in each of the last five quarters and an S-Corp. adjusted ROAA of 2.60% or higher during each of those periods. The latter is more than 2x the ROAA generated by the community bank aggregate during that time frame. In the latest edition of Tales from Top Performers, a series featuring conversations with executives at high-performing banks, Lee discusses the bank's philosophy and how it positioned the institution to thrive through the changing interest rate environment, generate strong performance and recruit top talent. The executive also discussed his prior experience as a regulator and investment banker, and shared his outlook for credit quality and the M&A landscape. 
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  Ep. 139 - Balance sheet, M&A and capital raising strategies for a volatile environment 04.06.2025 24min

  Bank advisers and market participants at S&P Global Market Intelligence's annual community bankers conference said bank M&A and IPO activity is in a holding pattern and will pick up once there is greater clarity over the macroeconomic and interest rate environment. They also suggested that banks should avoid trying to position their balance sheets for particular rate moves and instead prepare for a variety of scenarios. The episode highlights balance sheet strategies, the current regulatory environment and the outlook for bank deal activity from experts at Piper Sandler, Darling Consulting, Alston & Bird, Stephens, KSK Investors and Hovde Group.
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  Ep. 138 - Assessing the impact of tariffs on US banks 28.04.2025 25min

  The emergence of tariffs led to a broad selloff of US banks amid fears of slower economic growth or even a possible recession. Banks' first-quarter earnings season showed strong performance before the onset of tariffs, but ultimately might have left investors with more questions than answers. In the episode, senior reporter Harry Terris shared the key takeaways from large banks' first-quarter results and highlighted commentary from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Capital One, First Citizens and others. The results show a noticeable divide between "hard" data, such as consumer spending strength, and "soft" data, like stock market volatility and economic forecasts. Despite the uncertainties, major banks have largely maintained their financial guidance. However, they have adjusted loan growth expectations downward due to a more cautious approach from clients, reflecting a "wait and see" attitude amid the current economic climate. Bank news lead Lauren Seay further discussed how tariffs are expected to negatively impact M&A activity, but also notes that the trade policies have not completely stymied bank deals, with large transactions like Columbia Bank's plans to purchase Pacific Premier surfacing since tariffs were announced.
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  Ep. 137 - Two top community bank performers share their special sauce 01.04.2025 30min

  Each year, S&P Global Market Intelligence ranks top-performing financial institutions in the following categories: community banks $3 billion to $10 billion in assets, community banks with less than $3 billion in assets, credit unions will more than $100 million in assets, and the top largest U.S. public banks by total assets. In another installment of Tales from Top Performers, executives from two winners of the community bank rankings – Nicolet Bankshares CFO Phil Moore and Northeast Community Bank Chairman and CEO Ken Martinek – share what differentiates their franchises and how they have outperformed peers. They also discussed the greatest challenges and opportunities they see over the next 12 months, both organically and through M&A activity.
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  Ep. 136 – An activist's view of the banking industry 03.03.2025 30min

  Activist investor John Palmer sees plenty of catalysts for bank stocks, including stronger fundamentals, attractive valuations and a resurgence in M&A activity among regional and community banks. In the episode, Palmer, principal and managing member at PL Capital, discussed his firm's investment approach, its successful history in running proxy campaigns and how its interactions with bank management teams have changed over time. The veteran investor also shared how PL Capital has encouraged change and offered value to management teams as well as his view on the need for scale at some banks, M&A activity, regulation and bank valuations.
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  Ep. 135 - Takeaways from AOBA: Heavy dose of optimism as the deal window is open 31.01.2025 30min

  The bank advisory community is optimistic that bank M&A activity will rebound in 2025 and they should be, according to Mercer Capital Managing Director Jeff Davis. In the episode, Davis discussed his takeaways from the annual Acquire or Be Acquired Conference, where scores of advisers shared their viewed for M&A activity to be materially stronger this year. Davis also discussed the improving fundamental environment for banks, the outlook for bank valuations and whether institutions should take advantage of the current optionality in the marketplace and pursue capital raises or acquisitions while the window remains open.
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  Ep. 134 - KBW CEO says bank stocks still have room to run 17.12.2024 33min

  Investors have flocked back to the bank group over the last five months as the fundamental environment has improved and the election results in November added legs to the rally, according to KBW CEO Tom Michaud. In the episode, Michaud discussed improving investor sentiment toward the U.S. bank space, his firm's expectation for banks' earnings and credit quality in 2025 and 2026, and the outlook for capital raising and bank M&A activity.
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  Ep. 133 - Six reasons for a brighter bank M&A outlook 27.11.2024 28min

  The bank M&A pipeline has improved significantly over the past month, and capital is available for institutions looking to grow amid the surge in investor interest in the banking sector, according to Bill Burgess, co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler. In the episode, Burgess said there are six factors contributing to renewed interest in bank deals, particularly following the recent U.S. elections. He noted that there is pent-up demand for deals after years of stagnation, a rally in bank stock prices has improved seller psychology, and interest rate marks have become more manageable for buyers. He anticipates a shorter regulatory approval process for bank deals and believes larger buyers could return to the M&A arena after getting more clarity on the post-election regulatory framework. Burgess also said capital is abundant for event-driven and growth stories but cautioned against an overly aggressive push for capital issuance driven by rising share prices.