RaboResearch Agri Commodities

Épisodes

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  El Niño drives prices more than fundamentals 14.09.2026 19min

  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a 75% probability of the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950. Some of the textbook impacts are already visible in the fields, but market reactions appear to have been amplified by speculative fund positioning. For now, El Niño is driving prices more than fundamentals. Join Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort as they discuss the implications for cocoa, coffee, sugar, and other agricultural commodities.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 
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  Coffee at a turning point 08.09.2026 18min

  Coffee prices have remained elevated for several years, but after reaching record highs in 2025 they have fallen significantly. Has the market finally returned to normal, or is there more downside ahead? Join Oran van Dort and Carlos Mera as they discuss the key drivers of coffee prices, from developments in the Red Sea and the EU Deforestation Regulation to the latest global supply and demand outlook. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 
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  Energy shock waves: From Hormuz to Russia 18.08.2026 15min

  Energy prices have been both elevated and highly volatile in 2026, with Brent crude oil rising from USD 60/bbl at the start of the year to USD 88/bbl as of August 17, 2026. The war in Iran and the subsequent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have been responsible for much of the upward pressure on energy prices, while recent attacks on Russian refineries and export infrastructure have contributed to a sharp rise in diesel prices. Join Carlos Mera and Florence Schmit as they discuss the current market environment and where energy prices might go next.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 
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  August WASDE: Trouble in the Black Sea 13.08.2026 14min

  In this RaboResearch podcast, Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts Charles Hart and Andrick Payen discuss some of the highlights from the USDA's August WASDE.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.    
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  USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks: Wheat surprises 02.07.2026 13min

  In this RaboResearch podcast, Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts Charles Hart and Andrick Payen discuss some of the highlights from the USDA's recent Acreage and Grain Stocks reports and what the reports will mean for grain and oilseed markets moving forward.     Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 
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  Cocoa conversations: Cocoa strikes back 26.06.2026 12min

  After a relatively subdued period between March and April, volatility has returned to the cocoa market in force. Cocoa prices, still down 23.5% year-to-date, have rallied 31% since the beginning of May as bullish fundamentals reemerge. Key drivers include the transition toward an active El Niño event, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a slow start to the development of West Africa's 2026/27 main crop. Join Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort as they discuss the delectable but turbulent world of cocoa.    Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 
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  Espresso economics: High production, low prices 16.06.2026 18min

  Coffee prices have dropped by 32% in the last six months due to an increase in production. As the availability of coffee in origin increases, stocks in destination countries are still scarce, and some volatility is expected before we see even lower prices. Join Oran van Dort and Carlos Mera as they discuss these and many other topics affecting much of the world's favorite beverage.  This episode was recorded on June 12, 2026.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 
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  Is there a global food crisis coming? 29.04.2026 22min

  Since the war in Iran began, fertilizer prices have been climbing steadily. US Gulf urea prices alone are up around 40% since the start of the conflict and nearly 80% year‑to‑date, putting intense pressure on farm economics. In several regions, farmer margins are now razor‑thin – or outright negative – raising the risk of reduced fertilizer use and significant cuts in planted wheat area ahead of the upcoming Southern Hemisphere wheat planting season. Join Carlos Mera and Sam Taylor as they discuss how the conflict in the Middle East and the effective double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping fertilizer markets and key crops – and what that could mean for global agricultural production and food prices.     Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.   
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  The cocoa crash explained 09.02.2026 12min

  Cocoa futures in London and New York have had a rough start to the new year, plummeting 30% YTD following a wave of bearish fundamentals hitting the market in January. In this podcast, Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort discuss the latest crash, explaining the role of deteriorating demand, evidence of easing market tightness, favorable West African weather, and the significant influence of speculators, as well as the impact on the forward balance sheet and both the short- and long-term price outlook.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 
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  Coffee prices: Short term and long term diverge 15.10.2025 17min

  Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort discuss the spike in coffee prices. Despite so many factors affecting the coffee market in the last couple of years, global exports in the 12 months to August remained remarkably stable. A significant drop in Brazilian exports is being offset by increases in a number of countries, from large producers like Vietnam and Colombia to tiny Madagascar. Looking at the 2026/27 crop year, we expect a large global surplus, assuming more or less normal weather ahead, but in the short term, we expect high volatility. Brazil's arabica areas need more rainfall in the second half of October to secure a good production recovery next season, but also, certified stocks are declining, partially as an unintended consequence of US tariffs.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.
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  The WASDE whispers: What markets did not hear on June 12 16.06.2025 15min

  Join Carlos Mera and Charles Hart as they unpack the USDA's June WASDE report in the latest ACMR podcast. At first – and even second – glance, this month's WASDE might seem like a nonevent. The absence of revisions to major forecasts was conspicuous, but the changes that the USDA did not make are where the report's significance lies. We'll examine the department's current harvest outlooks for several major wheat producers, including the EU, Canada, and the US, and why the US corn and soybean balance sheets were left unchanged – except for an anticipated bump in corn exports in 2024/25. The USDA's modeling of crop yields will ensure the market keeps a close eye on weather conditions in the months ahead, while the soybean export forecast for the new season will continue to be debated amid a volatile US-China relationship. Weather risks to crop prospects in Argentina and Ukraine are also discussed before the episode closes with an initial view on how Israel's recent strikes on Iran could affect agricultural commodities markets.   Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer  
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  Espresso economics: The coffee rally explained 09.12.2024 17min

  The second half of November saw coffee prices igniting, with arabica prices pushing well past USD 3/lb, a level not seen since 1977, and robusta prices breaking all-time records. Arabica prices have increased 109% over the last twelve months. Meanwhile, robusta prices, which have been elevated since the Houthi-induced Red Sea disruptions last December, have risen 92% in the last year and an astronomical 237% over the last five years. Join Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort as they discuss the supply and demand fundamentals behind the recent price surge. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
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  The cocoa rally explained 01.03.2024 14min

  The cocoa rally shows no signs of slowing, with the London March24 contract up 58% YTD. Meanwhile, the New York contract set a new all-time high in the first half of February, surpassing, in nominal terms, the previous record set in 1977. Since then, prices have moved 20% higher! In this podcast, we discuss the factors contributing to this unprecedented price rally. In our view, recent price action is fundamentally driven by systemic production issues in West Africa that have led to an enormous supply deficit, the third in a row. Current market dynamics are incomparable to prior seasons, thus creating enormous panic among market participants.  Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer 
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  January 2024 WASDE: Disciplined consumers are rewarded 16.01.2024 18min

  Last Friday the USDA released a catalogue of data: the January WASDE, quarterly grain stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. The releases were largely bearish and confirmed the views held in our 2024 outlook (Buyers sail home on rising supplies) of higher-than-expected production and weaker demand. Consumers who have been disciplined are now being rewarded in terms of lower global G&O prices. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
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  Grain & oilseed markets move south 29.11.2023 16min

  Join Rabobank's Agri Commodity Markets Research team for a deep dive into grain and oilseed markets. Since our bearish 2024 outlook was published on November 15, grain and oilseed prices have slid as bargaining power continues to shift from farmers to consumers. North American 2023 grain harvests are set to outpace demand and pad stockpiles, encouraging funds to take on heavy short positions. The risk premium is now largely in soybeans and South America, where more conducive weather (Brazil) and politics (Argentina) promise to deliver large supplies in 2024 and beyond. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
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  Bulls feed on old grain 16.10.2023 12min

  The October WASDE was viewed as a bullish report by the market, with corn, soy, and wheat futures all rising following its release. For corn in particular, it was higher old crop feed demand that caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, for wheat markets, we saw 2023/24 estimations for both global production and trade trimmed. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
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  Softs Rally Hard 30.06.2023 11min

  Since the start of the year we have seen simultaneous rallies in sugar (+15%), cocoa (+28%), and robusta coffee (+47%). This is rather unusual given these three commodities have very different fundamentals and are produced in very different countries. The threat of El Niño-related weather challenges is the one common element that has led to speculators increasing their long bets across these three commodities. In this podcast, commodity analysts Paul Joules and Carlos Mera discuss the outlook going forward.  Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
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  April WASDE: USDA Cuts Argentine Yields 13.04.2023 7min

  With minimum alterations for most countries, the April WASDE's main talking point was cuts in Argentine production for soybeans, wheat, and corn amid the ongoing drought. As these cuts were expected, we saw little price action following the report's release. Eyes will now turn to next month's WASDE, which will provide the first estimates of the 2023/24 season. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
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  Outlook 2023: Tightening the Belt 06.12.2022 13min

  Join Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz for a look at the year ahead in ACMR's latest podcast. 2022 held unprecedented volatility for agricultural commodity markets, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to La Niña drought across South America. Consumers suffered through a third year of an agricultural bull market. It could very well be the last. Rabobank expects broad-based price relief in 2023 as weak consumer demand and more normal weather combine to revive supplies. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
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  October 2022 WASDE: USDA Scissorhands 13.10.2022 10min

  On the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the report was bearish on corn and bullish on soy, and it resulted in funds partially unwinding their corn/soy spread. The prime takeaway is that supply inflation is being increasingly controlled by weak, recession-linked demand. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer