Independent Thinking

Has Trump made the presidency too powerful? 17.07.2026 29p

The 2026 World Cup final in New Jersey may represent the pinnacle of soft power for the USA and a moment of global prestige for President Donald Trump. But at home, concerns are growing over his ever-expanding vision of presidential power. Is America now living with an 'imperial presidency'? Has the Supreme Court given the president powers that future generations might find hard to take back? How might Trump's autocratic style affect the November midterm elections? And why does he like to associate himself so closely with sports? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Heather Hurlburt and Max Yoeli of Chatham House's US and North America Programme to discuss presidential overreach, football red cards and the unitary executive theory of power. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump's threats – and U-turn – on Hormuz fees further undermine US credibility in the Gulf Comment | US refusal to renew USMCA trade deal brings uncertainty for Mexico. But the treaty is far from dead Upcoming event | US at 250: Separation vs. concentration of power Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

NATO in Ankara: Is Europe ready for a Russian attack? 10.07.2026 37p

This year's NATO summit brought together the leaders of all 32 member states in Ankara. President Donald Trump's return to the summit brought renewed controversy, with remarks on Greenland and Iran underscoring the geopolitical tensions that continue to test the unity and purpose of the transatlantic alliance. What happened in Ankara and what does it mean for NATO's future? If the Ukraine conflict winds down, will Russia pivot to test Article Five? And is Britain doing enough to prepare for a potential conflict? Bronwen Maddox looks at the summit and NATO's future with special guest General Sir Richard Barrons – former Commander of Joint Forces Command in the UK, now a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House – plus Dr Marion Messmer, director of our International Security Programme, and Galip Dalay who runs Chatham House's Turkey Initiative. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: News release | European NATO has four years to re-establish 'escalation dominance' over Russia, conference hears Magazine article | Yvette Cooper on Britain's place in the new world order Comment | Will NATO be convinced by the UK Defence Investment Plan? Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

USA at 250: Soft power, hard power and the future of the American dream 03.07.2026 42p

The United States marks its 250th birthday at a moment of intense division and international uncertainty. At home, President Donald Trump is aggressively remodelling America's governance around expanded White House power and burning through firewalls intended to prevent presidential overreach and self-enrichment. Internationally, his capricious mix of transactional diplomacy, coercive tariffs and naked hard power has left American allies shell-shocked – and opened the door for China to spread its influence. Former US ambassador to Qatar Tim Davis joins host Bronwen Maddox and Laurel Rapp, director of our US and North America programme, to discuss the future of the United States in the world – and whether, for ordinary citizens, the American dream still exists. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | On its 250th birthday, the US is still defined by its fault lines Comment | Europe watches the next American revolution take shape Comment | The US government's latest U-turn on Anthropic's Mythos sends mixed signals on AI governance Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Can Andy Burnham save Labour? 26.06.2026 39p

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves No.10 a decade since the Brexit referendum that began the UK's cycle of chaos, and Andy Burnham seems set to take over unopposed. Our experts discuss what the new regime will mean for Britain's future and its role in the world. Will attempts to bring the UK closer to Europe without actually rejoining the EU continue? Will Burnham want to increase Britain's defence budget, or will his priorities lie elsewhere? And why can't Britain hold on to its prime ministers? Bronwen Maddox reflects on a historic week with Ben Judah, former adviser to David Lammy and visiting fellow at Chatham House, and Olivia O'Sullivan, director of our UK in the World Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Britain's next prime minister faces deep foreign policy challenges – whether Burnham or another Comment | Macron's Evian summit shows the limits Trump places on the G7 Research paper | Three foreign policy priorities for the next UK government Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

It isn't easy being green: The UK's net zero trilemma 19.06.2026 36p

Can Labour's prized plans to decarbonize power generation by 2050 withstand growing demands for extra defence spending – an acrimonious argument that has already claimed two senior defence ministers? Or pressure to preserve and extend welfare benefits from the party's left and the unions, many of whom see net zero as a job killer? Plus: China's colossal subsidization of green technology has created a surplus of cheap equipment for clean power. Would Britain be wise to take advantage? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Pelin Zorlu and Chris Aylett of Chatham House's Climate and Energy team, plus special guest Archie Hall, acting economics editor of The Economist. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Even Hormuz reopening will not resolve Europe's key energy vulnerability Comment | The next Strait of Hormuz crisis could be even worse Research paper | Why renewables and electrification hold the keys to EU energy security Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Defence Investment Paralysis: Why the UK's defence minister quit, and what it means 12.06.2026 41p

A tumultuous week for Britain's faltering rearmament plans sees Defence Secretary John Healey resign from Keir Starmer's cabinet, saying the prime minister and the Treasury lack the will to properly fund the defence of the nation. Al Carns, the armed forces minister, also resigned saying the government's long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) was 'not built for the threat we face'. The departures raise further questions over whether the DIP can address the costs and trade-offs involved in strengthening UK defence. Meanwhile, European leaders struggle to coordinate their own rearmament amid concerns that America will withdraw from the defence of the continent. Bronwen Maddox looks at the defence predicament in the UK and Europe, with UK in the World Programme director Olivia O'Sullivan, and International Security Programme director Marion Messmer. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House. Read Chatham House's latest: Comment | The FCAS fighter jet looks like it's dead. Could that be a good thing? Comment | Will the UK's Defence Investment Plan finally be honest about Britain's defence? Comment | John Healey's resignation highlights profound strategic failure in the UK government's approach to defence Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Rules against power: Does the world need a new economic alliance to balance the US and China? 05.06.2026 35p

Would the world benefit from a new economic alliance to stop China and the US from undermining the global rules we all depend on – a new 'third pole'? That's the conclusion of a new Chatham House report published this week. How would an economic bloc like this work? Who could build it? And how would China and the US – even post-Trump – react to such a challenge to their power? Laurel Rapp, director of our US and North America Programme, talks over an audacious plan for a new world order with the report's author and director of our Global Economy and Finance Programme, Creon Butler. They are joined by director of our Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes, Grégoire Roos. Read our report: Saving global economic governance from the 'Trump shock'. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House. Read Chatham House's latest: Comment | Global trade imbalances have changed since the 2008 financial crisis. Now they reflect new risks Comment | Global cooperation on nuclear disarmament looks even further away Comment | In the face of growing AI cyber threats, do middle powers have agency? Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Ebola in DR Congo: A 'catastrophic collision of disease and conflict' 29.05.2026 31p

The major Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo's northeast is not just a public health emergency in an already impoverished and violence-beset region. Armed rebellion, fragile government and a collapse in public trust are combining to make outbreaks more frequent – and fostering dangerous disinformation that makes the virus harder to fight. How dangerous is the Ebola virus? Could it spread to the rest of the world? And is America's withdrawal from global health leadership at least partly to blame for its return? Bronwen Maddox finds out from director of our Africa Programme Tighisti Amare, and director of our Global Health Programme Emma Ross. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House. Read Chatham House's latest: Comment | The flow of arms and money feeding the war in Sudan can be cut. What is missing is the will Upcoming event | Targeting medics on the battlefield: addressing the crisis through law and practice Comment | Ethiopia needs more than an election to calm internal and regional conflict Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Could Britain really rejoin the EU? 22.05.2026 37p

Almost exactly ten years since Britain's seismic vote to leave the EU, the debate reopens thanks to early skirmishes in the fight for leadership of the Labour Party and thus the prime ministership. Could a credible bid to rejoin make its way onto Britain's political agenda? Are the drastically changed economic and defence environments making the case for re-entry unanswerable? And under what terms would European leaders consider the return of their often-troublesome former partner? Bronwen Maddox talks over a major potential shift for the entire continent with Chatham House visiting fellow Ben Judah, director of our UK in the World programme Olivia O'Sullivan, and associate fellow and Financial Times international trade specialist Alan Beattie. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House. Read Chatham House's latest: Comment | A 2026 'super El Niño' could expose gaps in UK preparedness Comment | China and Russia's strategic duo endures – but its limits are clear Research paper | Avoiding a new nuclear arms race Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The Trump-Xi summit: What does the US want from China and will Trump get it? 15.05.2026 32p

President Donald Trump brings a band of senior US business executives seeking trade deals to China for what is possibly the biggest bilateral summit of 2026. But what does the US hope to achieve? More sales of Boeings, beef and soybeans; an off-ramp from the US-Israel war on Iran; a sense of world pre-eminence; or all three? Our experts discuss whether Taiwan will end up paying the price for Chinese help in ending the Iran war, and whether the success of the summit really boils down to the chemistry between Trump and the world's other most powerful man, Xi Jinping. Host Bronwen Maddox discusses the visit and what it means with Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow with our Asia-Pacific Programme, and Laurel Rapp, director of our US and North America Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell. Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump–Xi summit will be about managing US–China rivalry, not resolving it Comment | Rare earths are on Trump's agenda in China. But US electronic waste offers an untapped source at home Comment | Xi and Trump won't discuss China's growing nuclear arsenal Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

Is Putin losing control of his war in Ukraine? 08.05.2026 33p

Is the initiative on the Ukraine war slipping out of Russian president Vladimir Putin's hands? And how has the US-Israel war on Iran affected Moscow? The economic crisis is tightening, and Moscow and St Petersburg are increasingly subject to lengthy internet and mobile blackouts. Fearing Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia has vastly scaled down its traditional celebration of military power – the Victory Day parade – while Putin is reported to be increasingly isolated, micromanaging the war from an assortment of bunkers. Bronwen Maddox talks to Grégoire Roos, director of Chatham House's Europe and Russia and Eurasia programmes, and associate fellow John Lough. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell. Chatham House's latest: Comment | China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran Comment | Germany rearms – but can it lead? Europe's hesitant superpower in waiting Comment | A naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz should learn these lessons Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

King Charles in Washington: Did the royal visit save the 'special relationship'? 01.05.2026 33p

King Charles III's state visit to the US won acclaim as the monarch charmed President Donald Trump. But can it really rescue US-UK relations from their current dire state? The 'special relationship' – a term first voiced by Chatham House before becoming widely popularized by Winston Churchill – now seems not so special. Our experts discuss what Britain and Europe should do now that the US wants to bear less of the burden of European defence, whether Prime Minister Starmer is right to stand up to President Trump on Iran, and where all of this leaves the NATO alliance. On this week's panel, host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme at Chatham House. And by General Sir Richard Barrons, a former Commander Joint Forces Command who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and was one of the leaders of the UK's Strategic Defence Review 2025. He is now a senior consulting fellow with the International Security Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell. Read Chatham House's latest: AI export controls are not the best bargaining chip Mali attacks show security cannot be delivered by military means alone Norway can teach the UK about energy security – but the lesson is not more North Sea drilling Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Is the shock of the US-Iran war helping Europe come together? 24.04.2026 34p

EU expansion, energy shocks, and uneasy alliances: will the conflict in the Gulf – and other crises – force a more unified European strategy? This week's episode comes from the Delphi Economic Forum in Greece, where host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia and Eurasia programmes. As the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran ripples through global markets, Europe finds itself under renewed pressure. Recorded on location amid the activity and discussions of the forum, they explore how Europe is responding to an increasingly unpredictable United States, reconsidering its own economic and security priorities, and navigating its relationship with Russia. Is this a moment of fragmentation – or the beginning of a more coherent European stance? Produced by Stephen Farrell. Chatham House's latest: Comment | A Taiwan crisis would cause far more global economic damage than Strait of Hormuz disruption News release | Lord Robertson: UK's 'naïve belief' the US 'will always be there' has diminished its defence capabilities Comment | Israel's accelerating de facto annexation of the West Bank has dangerous implications Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

Iran, Pope, Economy: How many battles can Trump fight at once? 17.04.2026 33p

From Hormuz to Hungary and the Vatican to the Federal Reserve, it has been an unusually contentious week for the White House, even by the standards of President Trump's second administration. This week's podcast comes from the US, where our analysts assess the political and economic state of the US as it begins gearing up for the midterm elections. From New York, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox and Director of the US and North America Programme, Laurel Rapp, are joined by David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow in the Global Economy and Finance Programme, who is in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's annual Spring Meetings to discuss the global economy and financial markets. The panel discuss the Iran ceasefire, nuclear negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the health of the global economy, a setback for one Trump ally in Budapest and domestic criticism for President Trump over tensions between the White House and Pope Leo. For further reading, see David Lubin's commentary 'Dollar dominance is surviving the Iran war - just about' Produced by Stephen Farrell. Chatham House's latest: Comment | How to keep the Strait of Hormuz open in the long term Comment | Lebanon–Israel talks must be given a chance Comment | Hungary election: Orbán has been defeated – but will Orbánism survive? Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

What lessons will China, India and other Asian nations draw from the Iran war? 10.04.2026 34p

China prepared in advance for a US attack on Iran. But many of its Asian neighbours have been hit hard because their economies were heavily reliant on energy imports from the Gulf. In the short-term, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered rationing, and shortages of diesel, gas and fertiliser. Does that set a negative precedent for other choke points across the world? In the longer-term the war may force Asian nations into deeper reckonings: to reassess supply chains, economic strategies and whether the US can be trusted as a stable ally. Why hasn't China supported Iran more? Will the standoff over Hormuz tempt Beijing to flex its muscles over the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea? How will Pakistan leverage its status as negotiator? Will the countries of southeast Asia follow through on calls for more regional integration of energy supplies? To discuss these issues, and more, Ben Bland, Director of the Asia-Pacific Programme, hosts this week's Independent Thinking podcast, standing in for Bronwen Maddox. He is joined by two of his Chatham House colleagues: Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow for China; and Chietigj Bajpaee, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia. Read our latest: News release | Syrian President al-Sharaa on Iran war: 'Syria will remain outside this conflict' Comment | The Iran war risks triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation Comment | Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia's strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones Comment | Iraqi civilians are paying the price of the Iran war Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Spring issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Why are UK energy costs so high? And how to bring them down 01.04.2026 38p

An earlier than usual episode of the Independent Thinking podcast, ahead of the Easter break. In a one-on-one conversation, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox discusses energy with Sir Dieter Helm, Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Oxford, who has been advising governments and writing on energy, water and the environment for decades. They examine how energy policies of different governments over decades led to the UK's energy costs being so high. And what the government should do if it wants to guarantee security of supply – and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Are those concerned about climate change right to push for net zero? Are current policies driving industry from the UK? Should there be more nuclear power stations, or more drilling in the North Sea? Read our latest: The Iran war risks triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation Any Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon will work to Hezbollah's advantage Moscow internet blackouts: the Kremlin tightens its grip on Russia's digital space Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Spring issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Iran war: regional shock or global crisis? 27.03.2026 30p

One month on from the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran, governments worldwide are trying to assess the scale of its long-term impact on the global economy and political system. Much will depend on how long the conflict continues, and how long Iran blocks fuel exports and other cargo vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The White House and Iran have sent conflicting signals about whether negotiations are under way, even as thousands of US troops head to the Middle East. And even if President Trump secures a ceasefire with Iran, it is unclear if US and Israel are aligned on their visions for an end game. Our panel assesses whether the world is headed for a 1973-style shock to the global economic system, pushing up inflation and cutting growth. And how Europe, Russia, China, and other nations will deal with a crisis that has disrupted energy flows and supply chains. Joining regular host Bronwen Maddox are David Lubin, senior research fellow in Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme, and Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia, and Eurasia programmes. Read our latest: Starmer's handling of Trump and Iran reflects public opinion, but shows the limits of UK power Any Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon will work to Hezbollah's advantage Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia's strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Spring issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Is Iran one crisis too many for Trump? 20.03.2026 36p

The US-Israel war on Iran is straining Trump's alliances, at home and abroad. Three weeks into exactly the kind of war of choice that he spent years decrying, US President Donald Trump is not getting the amount of international support that he seeks for his campaign of air strikes on Iran. There is also reluctance among NATO and other allies to be drawn into the political and economic turmoil caused by the US-Israeli campaign, and Tehran's region-wide retaliation. Our experts discuss the state of US-Gulf relations, the muted European response to Trump's appeals for help in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, and what it could mean elsewhere in the world for ongoing crises in Ukraine, Cuba and Venezuela. Joining host Bronwen Maddox this week are Dr Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in our Middle East and North Africa Programme; Dr Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America; and Heather Hurlburt, a consulting fellow in our US and North America Programme. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Chatham House's latest: The World Today magazine | Spring issue out now Expert comment | Should the Gulf Arab states join the war against Iran? Expert comment | The Iran war should boost security cooperation by US Pacific allies like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea

AI wars: Anthropic battles the Pentagon as China plans ahead 13.03.2026 32p

The US military's AI provider Anthropic is feuding with the Pentagon after the company tried to impose 'red lines' over the use of its artificial intelligence products for lethal autonomous weapons and mass surveillance of Americans. President Trump accused the US firm of being 'radical left' and designated it a 'supply chain risk' – usually reserved for Chinese or Russian firms who could compromise US security. Our panel discusses the dispute, the battle to control artificial intelligence systems already being used in Iran, Venezuela and Ukraine, and how a public battle between tech and government throws a much-needed spotlight on the wider global issues of AI governance and who is – or isn't – writing rules for the new era of warfare. They also look at how China is pushing ahead quickly with its plan to integrate 'AI Plus' into all aspects of its economy and military. This week's guest host of the Independent Thinking podcast is Alex Krasodomski, director of Chatham House's Digital Society Programme. He is joined by Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme; and James Kynge, a senior research fellow with the Asia-Pacific Programme who has spent years studying China and its high-technology industrial sector. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Chatham House's latest: Comment | Anthropic's feud with the Pentagon reveals the limits of AI governance The World Today magazine article | Can the West recover from China's hi-tech knockout blow? Comment | Do AI summits work?

Iran: Will Trump declare early victory and risk leaving hardliners in charge? 06.03.2026 35p

What does President Trump hope to achieve in Iran – a quick show of force, or long-term regime change? The US and Israel's long-threatened air strikes on Iran have materialized, and the Middle East is facing widespread disruption and a mounting death toll as the war spills across borders. In this episode of Chatham House's international affairs podcast, our expert panel analyses the Trump administration's many stated motivations for the attack, whether there can be a clear-cut end game, and who is likely to take over in Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They also discuss the effect of the war on President Trump's popularity at home as mid-term elections loom, and the criticism levelled at UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer for doing, his detractors say, too little, too late. Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme; General Sir Richard Barrons, senior consulting fellow with the International Security Programme; and Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump, the polls, and the war with Iran: What happened to the 'President of Peace'? Comment | Sánchez's principled stand against Trump matters. So does Merz's silence Comment | Netanyahu's biggest gamble