Excess Returns

Epizódok

• The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float 06.06.2026 56p

  On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure.Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple PodcastsDave Nadighttps://x.com/davenadigCameron Dawsonhttps://x.com/CameronDawsonTopics Covered:Why the SpaceX IPO could create a chaotic first 30 days of tradingHow 100 times sales, no earnings and a $1.75 trillion valuation change the discussionWhy pre-IPO access, lockups, fees and vehicle structure matter for investorsHow Palantir and Tesla frame the debate over extreme growth stock valuationsWhy SpaceX could create unusual supply and demand pressure in the public marketHow options trading, Nasdaq 100 inclusion and accelerated index rules could affect price discoveryWhy free float matters and how a 4 percent float could become a 12 percent index adjustmentHow much passive demand might chase SpaceX shares after the IPOWhat the bubble triangle says about technology, speculation, money and creditWhy real earnings do not disprove a technology-driven bubbleHow liquidity, private credit gates, IPO supply and buybacks could shape the next phase of the marketWhy advisors need to help clients think through sizing, exit plans and safe accessPeak season travel, TikTok monoculture, Ocean City, Coheed and Cambria, and the lost art of CDs and mixtapesTimestamps:00:00 Why the first 30 days could be chaotic04:00 Why everyone is talking about the SpaceX IPO09:23 The market structure problem behind SpaceX13:00 Options trading, small indexes and forced buying17:18 How much passive demand could chase SpaceX21:27 Why real earnings do not disprove a bubble25:43 Liquidity, IPO supply and why bubbles can keep going29:13 What advisors tell clients who want SpaceX33:17 Fake SPVs, scams and safe access37:39 Ocean City, peak season and Jersey Shore memories41:39 Coheed and Cambria opening for Shinedown45:44 Summer concerts, Bikini Kill, Weezer and The Shins46:25 Cleaning out old cars and rediscovering CDs50:10 Old iPods, underwater MP3 players and forgotten playlists53:20 Mixtapes, liner notes and physical music culture55:08 Where to find Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson
• Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction 04.06.2026 1ó 1p

  Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsJim Paulsen on Xhttps://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectiveshttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Topics CoveredWhy Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fallThe risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear marketHow inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the marketWhy the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin WarshThe extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocksWhy AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainableHow tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectorsWhy small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning signWhat past oil price peaks suggest about stock market correctionsWhy investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth riskHow this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AITimestamps00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI59:46 Jim’s main takeaway for investors nowFollow the Excess Returns podcasts:https://excessreturnspod.com/Contact us:excessreturnspod@gmail.com/No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
• He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps 02.06.2026 1ó 3p

  Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.AI Disruption: Moats and Value Trapshttps://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruptionKai Wu on Xhttps://x.com/ckaiwuSparkline Capitalhttps://www.sparklinecapital.com/Topics Covered:Why software stocks are trading at a historically unusual discount to the marketHow AI disruption can create both real opportunities and dangerous value trapsWhy Blockbuster, Borders, RadioShack and newspapers offer lessons for today’s software selloffHow patent data and natural language processing can measure technological disruptionWhy disruption has helped explain the poor performance of traditional value investingWhy value investing may still work in sectors insulated from technological changeHow intangible assets like brand, human capital, intellectual property and network effects can protect companiesWhy Walmart and The New York Times survived disruption while other incumbents did notHow David Teece’s complementary assets framework applies to AI, software and moatsWhy AI adoption and intangible value together may help identify software survivorsWhy high dispersion in disruption-scare stocks creates a potential opportunity for stock pickersTimestamps:00:00 Software stocks now trade at a historic discount04:26 What makes a cheap stock a value trap08:25 Measuring disruption using patents, filings and natural language processing13:23 Is AI the biggest disruptive wave in history?14:55 Why disruption keeps stacking on retailers17:10 How technological change disrupted traditional value investing21:20 Why value investors need to know when not to apply old metrics25:06 Why more of the market is exposed to innovation than ever before27:07 What Walmart and The New York Times teach about surviving disruption32:40 The four intangible moats that can protect companies35:02 Why intangible value works better in disrupted industries38:50 Apple, Amazon, Macy’s and the difference between disruptors and value traps42:58 Applying intangible value to beaten-down software stocks47:05 Why AI adoption alone is not enough48:23 How AI could improve margins for surviving software companies50:09 Which industries are adopting AI fastest52:14 The software sweet spot: AI adoption plus intangible moats53:53 Why disruption-scare stocks have extreme return dispersion57:40 What happens when intangible value is applied to high-disruption stocks01:01:42 Why “code is not the moat” for many software companies
• The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet 30.05.2026 1ó 8p

  In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Topics Covered:Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concernsHow earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI tradeAahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signalsWhy demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expectWhat a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bondsBen Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlashWhy opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issueBrent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market frothWhy CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasmHow the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocksTimestamps:00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity
• Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing 28.05.2026 49p

  Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock selection, and why traditional valuation signals may be less useful than they once were.We discuss AI revenue exposure, software vs. semiconductors, Mag Seven positioning, gross margins, estimate achievability, spinoffs, and Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea.Adam Parker on Xhttps://x.com/Adam_Parker_TriTrivariate Researchhttps://trivariateresearch.com/Trivector Researchhttps://www.trivectorresearch.comTopics covered:Why “sell in May” and other calendar-based market rules often lack statistical supportWhy Adam thinks the stock market leads the economy, not the other way aroundHow to think about whether today’s AI market is a bubbleWhy the market may be trading on 2030 or 2031 fundamentalsWhen investors may start demanding returns on AI capital spendingWhy AI could create new jobs rather than simply destroy existing onesHow large AI-related IPOs like SpaceX could affect index mechanics and portfolio flowsWhy gross margin expansion is one of Adam’s most important stock selection factorsWhy Adam remains cautious on software and prefers semiconductors over softwareHow valuation, quality, and other traditional factors may have changed since COVIDWhy estimate achievability and incremental margins matter more than simple beats and missesHow to think about the Mag Seven, Nvidia, and market concentrationWhy spinoffs may become more important in an AI-driven marketWhy healthcare is Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector ideaTimestamps:00:00 Why the market may be trading on future fundamentals04:37 Is today’s stock market an AI bubble?08:45 When AI capex needs to show real returns13:00 How trillion-dollar IPOs could reshape index mechanics19:00 Why gross margin expansion is such a powerful factor23:00 Why software companies face AI-driven margin pressure27:21 Where AI semiconductor exposure goes next31:54 Why valuation does not work for stock picking35:03 What has changed in markets since COVID39:22 Estimate achievability and incremental margins43:06 How to think about the Mag Seven and Nvidia47:55 Why healthcare could be the biggest AI opportunity
• He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off 26.05.2026 1ó 6p

  Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures.They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio.Standpoint Fundshttps://www.standpointfunds.com/Topics covered:Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and thrive after regime shiftsHow systematic investors manage whipsaws, drawdowns, and emotional pressureThe trade-offs between short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend signalsWhy Eric prefers simple, durable systems over complex models and constant tinkeringWhen it makes sense to remove a futures market from a systematic portfolioWhy trend following may earn a risk transfer premium from hedgers and commercial usersHow copper producers, options markets, and insurance help explain trend following returnsWhy rising interest rates and short bond positions can benefit managed futuresHow trend following can pair with global equities in an all-weather portfolioWhy smoothing a trend strategy can reduce its value when investors need convexity mostThe behavioral challenge of holding diversifiers that look wrong at the wrong timeWhy investors and advisors often want alternatives but struggle to stick with themTimestamps:00:00 Why trend following opportunities appear under pressure04:39 Pro-growth positioning before the whipsaw09:32 Short-term vs long-term trend signals13:46 The danger of tinkering with systematic strategies18:43 What actually changes in a durable process23:27 Rising rates, short bonds, and collateral yield28:00 Copper hedging and why trend followers buy rising prices32:00 Options, insurance, and risk transfer through time36:28 Regime shifts and supply-demand imbalances41:00 What investors choose when asset classes are anonymized45:11 Building a portfolio for 30-year terminal wealth50:06 Why portfolio construction is different than judging individual strategies56:15 Why trend following and value investing require faith01:00:42 Reducing errors vs chasing highlight-reel winners01:05:36 Where to follow Eric and Standpoint
• Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Research Greatest Hits 23.05.2026 1ó 18p

  Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas.We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative investing.Cliff Asness on Xhttps://x.com/CliffordAsnessAQR Capital Managementhttps://www.aqr.com/Papers DiscussedBubble Logic: Or, How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bullhttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Bubble-Logic-Or-How-to-Learn-to-Stop-Worrying-and-Love-the-BullRubble Logic: What Did We Learn From the Great Stock Market Bubble?https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Rubble-LogicMy Top 10 Peeveshttps://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves.pdfVolatility Launderinghttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Volatility-LaunderingI Did Not Predict What Is Going on in Privateshttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/I-Did-Not-Predict-What-is-Going-on-in-Privates(So) What If You Miss the Market's N Best Days?https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/So-What-If-You-Miss-the-Markets-N-Best-DaysInternational Diversification Works (Eventually)https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Works-EventuallyInternational Diversification - Still Not Crazy after All These Yearshttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Still-Not-Crazy-after-All-These-YearsPerhaps the Most Important Essay I Will Ever Co Authorhttps://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Perhaps-the-Most-Important-Essay-I-Will-Ever-Co-AuthorMain topics covered:How the dot-com bubble created its own internal logicWhy Dow 36,000 and Cisco message boards captured bubble thinkingWhat investors learned, and failed to learn, from the tech bubbleHow today’s AI market compares with the dot-com eraWhy long periods of underperformance make even good strategies hard to stick withWhy Cliff still defends volatility as a useful risk measureWhy “cash on the sidelines” is a misleading market narrativeHow private equity smoothing can make risk look lower than it really isWhy the private markets debate is not a short-term predictionWhy the “missing the best 10 days” argument against market timing is incompleteWhy international diversification can still matter after decades of US outperformanceWhat pulling the goalie can teach investors about risk, incentives and career riskHow machine learning changes quant investing without eliminating economic intuitionTimestamps:00:00 Why certainty is dangerous in investing04:58 Why Bubble Logic never became a book10:18 Cisco, Yahoo message boards and bubble psychology14:16 Rubble Logic and the lessons investors failed to learn18:04 What today’s AI market has in common with the dot-com bubble22:23 Why the long run can lie to investors26:02 Volatility, permanent loss of capital and real risk control30:19 Why there is no cash on the sidelines34:00 Private equity, smoothing and volatility laundering39:47 Why Cliff did not call the private markets downturn43:19 The flaw in the missing the best 10 days argument49:00 Why international diversification still works eventually53:35 Why crashes are global but lost decades are local57:30 Pulling the goalie and asymmetric risk01:01:00 Why coaches and investors avoid optimal decisions01:07:36 Machine learning, overfitting and economic intuition01:10:50 Leverage, short selling and derivatives in quant portfolios01:16:26 Where to follow Cliff Asness
• He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8% 21.05.2026 57p

  Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth.Ben's Bookhttps://amzn.to/4dFHsQzBen Carlson on Xhttps://x.com/awealthofcsBen's Bloghttps://awealthofcommonsense.com/Main topics covered:Why risk is hard to define and always involves trade-offsHow vivid risks like sharks and headlines distort investor decision-makingWhy doing nothing can be one of the hardest parts of investingHow inflation should be viewed through personal finance, human capital and long-term investingWhy stocks can be an inflation hedge even if they struggle during inflation spikesWhy waiting for the market coast to clear often failsWhat the world’s worst market timer teaches about saving and staying investedHow loss aversion shapes investor behaviorWhat the Great Depression, bear markets and 30-year returns teach about long-term investingWhy there is no perfect portfolio and the best strategy is one you can actually stick withTimestamps:00:00 Ben Carlson on why risk and reward are attached06:35 Doing nothing, action bias and better investing behavior11:51 Inflation psychology and lessons from the 1970s16:55 Why stocks can hedge inflation over the long run21:07 Why waiting for the coast to clear is a market timing trap26:30 Time horizons, loss aversion and portfolio behavior31:49 Government rescue, left-tail risk and unintended consequences35:54 Recessionary vs non-recessionary bear markets42:09 Why the stock market and economy can diverge47:24 Why compounding is about holding, not trading51:37 Starting valuations, lost decades and future returns55:40 Risk, reward and the biggest lesson for investors
• Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom 19.05.2026 53p

  AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and where the biggest second-order opportunities may emerge.Gene Munster on Xhttps://x.com/munster_geneDoug Clinton on Xhttps://x.com/dougclintonDeepwater Asset Managementhttps://www.deepwatermgmt.com/Intelligent Alphahttps://www.intelligentalpha.co/Main topics covered:• Why Doug Clinton still thinks AI could become a bigger bubble than dot-com• How Claude Code, Codex and frontier AI models are changing enterprise productivity• The job disruption risk for knowledge workers and why AI adoption may become a survival skill• Why the AI model race may not be winner-take-all• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to evaluate stocks and earnings expectations• Why GPT, Claude and DeepSeek perform differently across investing tasks• The AI infrastructure boom and why energy may be one of the most underappreciated bottlenecks• Hyperscaler CapEx, data centers and the investment case for continued AI spending• How major AI IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could affect public markets• Why space, orbital data centers and zero-gravity manufacturing could become real investment themesTimestamps:00:00 AI, electricity and intelligence04:33 Why new AI models changed the semiconductor trade09:14 What AI means for knowledge worker jobs14:03 Codex, Claude Code and Google’s AI challenge18:50 OpenAI, Apple and the model capacity race23:03 How many frontier AI models can survive?27:18 Intelligent Alpha’s AI earnings benchmark31:34 Why AI investors avoid emotional bias35:33 Where to invest in the AI stack39:00 Why AI energy demand is still underappreciated43:43 How markets are judging hyperscaler AI spending48:00 The investment opportunity in space52:20 Final thoughts and closing
• Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On 16.05.2026 1ó 4p

  Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons investors can take from his career at GMO. We cover why he rejects the simple “permabear” label, how he thinks about valuation and bubbles, why AI may be both transformative and dangerous for investors, and why long-term thinking is so hard but so essential.The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term Worldhttps://groveatlantic.com/book/the-making-of-a-permabear/GMOhttps://www.gmo.com/americas/Grantham Foundationhttps://granthamfoundation.org/Topics covered:Why Jeremy Grantham thinks the “permabear” label misses the pointThe difference between being generally bearish and making a true “abandon ship” callMean reversion, valuation cycles, and why history still matters for investorsWhy monopoly power helped reshape U.S. profit margins and market concentrationHow AI could turn today’s monopoly winners into brutal competitorsWhy new technology often becomes a cost of doing business rather than a permanent profit boostHow Grantham defines bubbles using two-sigma market eventsLessons from Japan, the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, and the 2021 speculative peakWhy institutional investors struggle to stick with value strategies during bubblesThe role of purpose, climate risk, toxicity, and long-term thinking in Grantham’s later careerThe one lesson Grantham would teach ordinary investors about pessimism, realism, and time horizonsTimestamps:00:00 Jeremy Grantham on unpleasant news and long-term investing04:18 Reinvesting when terrified in 200908:43 Why Grantham told investors to abandon ship in 200810:28 Mean reversion and why history matters14:00 Monopoly power, the Mag 7, and rising market concentration17:14 Why AI is important but impossible to forecast20:21 AI as a cost of doing business21:24 From monopoly profits to brutal AI competition24:05 How investors should think about valuation mean reversion27:00 Why high returns on capital should eventually attract competition29:47 How Grantham defines a market bubble33:00 Japan’s extreme bubble and GMO’s zero weight decision34:19 The dot-com bubble and the pain of being early38:00 Grantham’s bubble warning signal in 202141:35 Whether today’s market is showing classic bubble behavior43:00 QuantumScape, meme stocks, and speculative excess46:35 How ChatGPT interrupted the 2022 bear market49:12 Investor behavior and the cost of underperforming in a bubble55:00 Purpose, philanthropy, climate risk, and useful work01:01:03 The one lesson Grantham would teach average investors
• He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is 15.05.2026 1ó 3p

  Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about the modern financial system. The conversation covers why private credit risks may not be systemic in the traditional banking-crisis sense, but still matter for investors because of redemption gates, hidden leverage, opaque structures, incentive conflicts, and correlations that can spike when markets are under stress.Marc Rubinstein on Xhttps://x.com/MarcRubyNet Interesthttps://www.netinterest.co/In this episode, we discuss:Why the Fed says private credit redemption risks are limited and manageableWhat Blue Owl’s redemption gates reveal about private credit liquidityHow post-2008 bank regulation pushed risk into private credit, hedge funds, trading firms, and exchangesWhy banks and private credit firms are both competitors and collaboratorsThe “layer cake” of leverage connecting banks, private credit, and borrowersHow HSBC’s loss tied to Atlas and MFS highlights hidden credit risksWhy insurance companies have become increasingly tied to private creditWhy rapid growth can be dangerous in financial businessesWhat bank earnings show about the gap between weak consumer confidence and resilient spendingWhy post-mortem reports from SVB, Credit Suisse, and other failures reveal what investors could not see in real timeHow Revolut became one of the most interesting fintech stories in global bankingWhy Marc calls this a potential golden age of arbitrageWhat Jane Street, public BDC discounts, private asset valuations, and geopolitical fragmentation tell us about market structureWhy investors may still be too anchored to the 2008 banking playbookWhere Marc sees risk and opportunity in financials, banks, Europe, and non-bank financial institutionsTimestamps:00:00 Private credit, hidden risks, and correlation spikes05:03 Why Blue Owl became a private credit warning sign10:20 How private credit grew after the 2008 financial crisis15:30 Banks and private credit as financial “frenemies”19:44 HSBC, Atlas, MFS, and the layer cake of leverage24:11 Apollo, Athene, insurance assets, and private credit incentives29:20 Why higher rates have not broken more of the financial system33:40 Bank earnings, consumer confidence, and resilient spending37:20 Why “I don’t know” can be a powerful signal from bank CEOs41:46 Revolut and the ambition to build a truly global bank47:38 Why growth can be dangerous in finance52:19 Private assets, public BDC discounts, and arbitrage opportunities56:34 What investors misunderstand about banks today59:31 How Marc would think about financials as a long-short investor
• Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan 14.05.2026 1ó 4p

  First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build.Andy Constan on Xhttps://x.com/dampedspringDamped Spring Advisorshttps://dampedspring.com/Topics covered:Why bubbles are easy to identify in hindsight but nearly impossible to define in real timeThe difference between an expensive market and a true bubble regimeHow new technologies, easy money, regulation, and exogenous shocks can create bubble conditionsWhy AI may rhyme with the internet boom without being an exact repeatThe role of ChatGPT, Microsoft’s OpenAI investment, and semiconductor earnings expectationsWhat the 1987 crash, Japan, housing, bonds, and dot-com bubble can teach investors todayWhy human nature, FOMO, and “keeping up with the Joneses” make bubbles so powerfulHow the late-1990s Fed response to Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the final phase of the tech bubbleWhy tech’s current size in the economy and market may limit how far the AI boom can growHow AI capex, hyperscaler spending, buybacks, debt issuance, and IPO supply could determine what happens nextTimestamps:00:00 Intro and the challenge of identifying bubbles04:32 Expensive markets vs true bubble regimes09:57 The five bubble episodes Andy compares to today14:35 Root conditions, escalation events, and the peaking phase19:20 Why the 1987 crash may also have been a bubble24:25 The late-1990s setup and the Netscape Navigator moment28:00 Crisis analogs, easy financial conditions, and today’s AI parallels32:20 Long-Term Capital Management and rocket fuel for the tech bubble36:11 Why tech’s market share matters more today than in the 1990s43:18 Policy mistakes, subsidies, and how governments feed bubbles47:42 Semiconductor earnings expectations and valuation risk53:45 The AI capex chain and where the money has to come from58:42 IPOs, corporate debt, and the financing risk behind the AI boom01:02:27 What investors should do differently in a bubble regime
• He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different 12.05.2026 1ó 17p

  Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble, China’s investment boom and the post-2008 interest rate regime suggest about the risks and opportunities today.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠Subscribe on AppleTopics covered:How capital cycle theory applies to the AI data center boomWhy railway mania, autos, aircraft and the dot-com bubble offer lessons for todayWhy markets often fund major technology transitions but fail to identify the winnersThe prisoner’s dilemma driving hyperscaler AI spendingWhether AI demand can justify the supply being builtHow GPU depreciation and AI capital spending may affect reported earningsWhy hallucinations and reliability may limit the total addressable market for large language modelsThe case for looking at AI anti-bubbles instead of shorting the bubble directlyWhy China shows that strong GDP growth does not guarantee strong shareholder returnsHow intangible capital, SaaS valuations and human capital fit into capital cycle analysisWhether bubbles can be good for society while still being bad for investorsWhy the long-term interest rate cycle may have changedThe role of gold in a world of expensive stocks, rising debt and vulnerable bondsTimestamps:00:00 Edward Chancellor on capital cycles, bubbles and AI04:42 Why the railway mania became a classic overinvestment cycle09:00 Why markets fund technology booms but often miss the winners13:19 The prisoner’s dilemma behind AI spending17:30 Will AI demand justify the supply being built20:00 How capital spending can inflate profits before the bust25:08 The AI Hindenburg moment and the limits of large language models30:55 Why AI hype may exceed the proven technology35:55 Why the anti-bubble may matter more than shorting AI40:00 The energy transition bubble and the opportunity in overlooked assets45:08 China’s lesson on GDP growth and shareholder returns49:27 Big Booze, GLP-1s and the Lindy effect54:23 Can intangible capital have its own capital cycle59:54 SaaS valuations and the index creation warning signal01:04:10 Why bubbles can help society but hurt investors01:09:09 Why long-term rates may be in a new multi-decade cycle01:14:07 Why Edward Chancellor still sees a role for gold
• We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It 10.05.2026 1ó 7p

  Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.Guest LinksBrent Kochuba on Xhttps://x.com/spotgammaSpotGammahttps://spotgamma.com/Topics CoveredWhy the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attentionHow AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocksWhy options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investorsHow dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market movesWhy options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatilityWhat the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names mattersHow record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flowsWhy Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansionWhat oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market riskTimestamps00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy28:07 The market rally into May expiration33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 50049:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion
• We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead 08.05.2026 1ó 2p

  Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research.We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment, why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than investors think, and how investors can think about diversification when mega-cap growth stocks dominate market returns.Bridgeway Capital Managementhttps://bridgeway.com/I Know What You Did Last Summerhttps://bridgeway.com/perspectives/i-know-what-you-did-last-summer/How Many Stocks Are Effectively in the S&P 500?https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/how-many-stocks-are-effectively-in-the-sp500/Topics CoveredWhy quantitative investing still needs human judgment and skepticismThe difference between smart beta and true multi-factor portfolio constructionHow Bridgeway combines value, quality, sentiment and risk controlsWhy the size premium may depend on how small-cap stocks are definedWhy recently fallen large caps and IPOs can distort small-cap researchHow the small-cap universe has changed as companies stay private longerHow intangible assets affect traditional value and quality metricsWhy value can work in bursts and why timing factor rotations is so difficultHow concentrated the S&P 500 has become using the HHI frameworkWhy passive investing may create opportunities for active small-cap managersHow market neutral strategies can help investors manage equity market volatilityHow AI can help with data, text analysis and trading without replacing investment judgmentTimestamps00:00 Why fewer than 50 stocks are driving S&P 500 returns01:04 Bridgeway’s evidence-based investing approach02:59 Why quantitative models need human judgment07:52 Smart beta vs multi-factor investing11:32 How Bridgeway builds multi-factor portfolios16:08 Rethinking the size premium20:31 Has the small-cap universe gotten worse?23:49 How intangibles change value investing28:05 Does value still work?30:09 Why value returns can be episodic33:11 Why factor investors need patience35:22 How concentrated is the S&P 500?40:29 Factor strategies as portfolio diversifiers41:41 Passive investing and market structure44:27 Managing volatility with market neutral strategies49:40 How systematic managers update their models55:02 How Bridgeway is using AI01:00:03 Elena’s biggest lesson for investors
• The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate 06.05.2026 1ó 16p

  This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty.Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on AppleTopics CoveredWhy being present with management teams may still be an investor edge in the age of AIHow microcap investing differs from small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap investingWhy talking to management can build conviction but also create biasHow Chris Mayer thinks about vertical market software, mission-critical systems and AI disruptionWhy AI may become table stakes rather than a durable competitive advantageHow small companies can use AI to improve workflows, sales, inventory and productivityWhy many microcaps have short shelf lives and rarely become true long-term compoundersThe role of intelligent fanatics, owner-operators and repeat winners in great investmentsWhy management transitions can create powerful microcap opportunitiesThe difference between being a great analyst and being a great investorWhy execution, position sizing, selling losers and holding winners matter more than hit rateHow Matt and Bogumil apply the lessons to AI, business quality and the limits of small business scalabilityTimestamps00:49 Introducing Chris Mayer, Ian Cassel and 100 Year Thinkers04:59 Ian Cassel’s first management meeting and XM Satellite Radio09:00 Why management meetings deepen understanding but can also mislead14:32 Chris Mayer on the real edge in long-term investing18:40 Mission-critical software, systems of record and AI disruption22:45 How microcap companies are using AI in real businesses27:02 AI as table stakes and when disruption creates opportunity31:29 Why most microcaps have short shelf lives35:51 Finding Tom Brady before the market knows he is Tom Brady40:53 Why owner-operators and intelligent fanatics matter45:03 Second-in-command leaders, repeat winners and chips on shoulders49:27 Analyst vs investor and the missing skills of stock picking54:00 Using data to identify investor strengths, weaknesses and decision errors58:14 Position sizing and letting small positions earn the right to grow01:03:00 Peter Lynch, stocks as businesses and learning to think like an owner01:07:00 AI, human judgment and the limits of automation01:11:00 Why not every small business can become the next Facebook01:15:00 Where to follow Bogumil and the 100 Year Thinkers series
• We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels 04.05.2026 1ó 10p

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.Subscribe on SpotifySubscribe on AppleTopics CoveredWhy letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investorsChris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companiesThe tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio riskWhy Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970sHow oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wagesChris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual riskWhat cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacencyWhy the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living inThe relationship between valuation, durability and software stocksWhy higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flowChris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investingWhy AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment storyTimestamps00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners
• We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market 01.05.2026 1ó 7p

  This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Topics CoveredWhy markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical riskThe “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn’t hit markets yetHow supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflationWhy pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting marketsThe role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rallyBull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioningWhy free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earningsHow options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatilityThe AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadthThe growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the marketTimestamps00:00 Intro and market overview01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications
• The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market 29.04.2026 1ó 2p

  This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and overconcentrating in a narrow group of growth stocks.Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson Investors joins Excess Returns to explain why today’s environment may look more like the inflationary 1960s than the 1970s, what that means for portfolios, and why many investors may be disappointed with passive index returns over the next decade.Richard walks through the implications of rising import prices, global conflict, and deglobalization, and how these forces could drive a structural shift toward higher inflation and shorter-duration investing. He also explains why market concentration, AI enthusiasm, and capital flows may be setting up a broadening opportunity across overlooked areas of the market.Follow Rich on Twitter:https://twitter.com/RBAdvisorsCompany Website:https://www.rbadvisors.comWhy investors in S&P 500 index funds may face disappointing long-term returnsThe shift from exporting disinflation to importing inflation through global tradeHow war and geopolitical conflict are influencing inflation expectations and marketsWhy today’s environment resembles the 1960s “guns and butter” period more than the 1970sThe case for structurally higher inflation and a potential shift in Fed targetsWhy shorter-duration assets, dividends, and cash flow matter more in inflationary regimesThe risks of overconcentration in AI and mega-cap growth stocksHow capital flows and valuation distortions create opportunities outside the Mag 7The case for international equities and why investors are significantly underweightWhere Bernstein sees the most compelling long-term opportunities across sectors and regions00:00 Intro and why index investors could be disappointed00:01:13 War, inflation, and the impact of rising gasoline prices00:02:40 Importing inflation and the role of global trade dynamics00:03:33 1970s oil shock vs 1960s guns and butter comparison00:05:00 Why today’s inflation environment may be less severe than the 1970s00:06:30 Defense spending, tax cuts, and inflation expectations00:08:54 Why Bernstein is taking the “over” on inflation and deficits00:10:00 The case for a higher long-term inflation target00:11:00 Why the Fed may resist changing its 2% inflation target00:12:00 Deglobalization and the rise of global conflict00:14:00 Global inflation dynamics and divergence across countries00:15:21 Why cash and short-duration assets may outperform00:17:00 Asset-liability mismatches and the endowment model stress00:18:23 Market concentration and parallels to the dot-com bubble00:20:00 AI as an economic story vs an investment story00:21:00 Capital flows, valuation excess, and future return expectations00:22:39 Why market broadening opportunities may emerge00:24:19 Passive flows, ETFs, and market distortions00:25:40 Where Bernstein sees sector opportunities today00:27:34 The case for dividends in an inflationary environment00:31:00 Why near-term cash flow matters more than long-term growth00:33:07 Corporate behavior, capital allocation, and rising hurdle rates00:36:02 Profit cycle strength and why the market should broaden00:41:36 Evaluating IPOs and speculative investments00:47:09 The risk of a lost decade for index investors00:50:21 Gold, commodities, and portfolio diversification00:53:48 Most attractive overlooked opportunities today00:58:06 Biggest long-term risks and what keeps Bernstein up at night
• Feeling Safe Is the Risk | Chris Davis on Finding Durable Companies in a Disrupted World 27.04.2026 1ó 2p

  This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high valuations, technological disruption, and major macro shifts. Davis lays out a framework for navigating uncertainty, explains why durability matters more than ever, and shares hard-earned lessons on selling great companies too early.Davis Advisorshttps://www.davisadvisors.comTopics CoveredWhy high valuations signal complacency even in an uncertain macro environmentThe three major forces reshaping markets: higher cost of capital, deglobalization, and AIHow to identify durable and resilient businesses in a fragile worldWhy growth and value are not opposites and how expectations drive opportunityLessons from past bubbles and why today may resemble 1999 in market structureThe hidden risks in passive investing and index concentrationChris Davis’ five-part framework for investing in AI (winners, enablers, users, protected, disrupted)Why most investors lose money by overpaying for growth and underestimating competitionThe importance of management quality and “great people” in long-term investing successWhy the biggest investing mistakes are often the great companies you sell too earlyTimestamps00:00 Intro and key investing paradox on risk perception02:45 Why today’s market reflects complacency despite uncertainty05:20 Valuations, concentration, and optimism in current markets08:52 Lessons from 1999 and how value investing can outperform in downturns12:00 Durability, resilience, and why balance sheets matter more now15:21 Kodak, disruption, and risks of passive investing18:00 Perception vs reality of risk and behavioral mistakes21:51 Market structure, moral hazard, and the “buy the dip” mindset26:34 How investors should think about AI as a long-term technology shift29:30 Why picking early AI winners is dangerous33:00 The role of enablers like semiconductors, energy, and infrastructure36:00 AI users and which companies benefit most from adoption38:00 Businesses protected from disruption vs “walking dead” companies42:00 The biggest investing mistake: selling great companies too early46:00 Portfolio concentration and lessons from real-world experience50:00 Berkshire Hathaway, long-term culture, and durable business models54:00 Learning from mistakes: Costco case study57:00 The importance of management and why people matter more than investors think