Barclays Brief

Japan: Why the world is watching 11.08.2026 10p

Little more than a week ago, a rare, coordinated US-Japan intervention to support the yen caught investors’ attention. Coupled with rising expectations of another Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal agenda, the country appears to be undergoing a profound transition, bringing new questions for investors around the world.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey and Yoichi Takemura, Head of Macro Trading, Japan, explore what Japan's economic normalisation may mean for investors and markets worldwide. This discussion goes well beyond the currency; from interest rates to capital flows, investors are increasingly focused on how Japan's policy shift could influence markets around the world.As policymakers balance growth, inflation, currency stability and public finances, investors are paying closer attention to developments in Japan. The question is not simply where the yen goes next, but how one of the world's largest economies navigates a very different environment from the one it has known for decades.Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:Ep 39 Opportunities in Asian EquitiesEp 18 Japan decides, global markets moveClients can read more on Barclays Live:Our call for next rate hike frontloaded to September with latest BoJ summaryScope for increasing retail JGB investmentJPY: Joint intervention to the rescueThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.Important Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures

US equities: Beyond the pullback 04.08.2026 10p

After a spring sell-off and renewed summer weakness in technology stocks, uncertainty has remained a defining feature of the investment landscape. During the market sell-off following the start of the US-Iran conflict, Venu Krishna, Head of U.S. Equity and Equity Linked Strategy, challenged the subdued market narrative with his end-of-year expectations for the S&P 500.Several months on, with volatility still elevated and fresh questions emerging around rates, AI investment and the broader macro backdrop, he joined the Barclays Brief to speak with Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, to explain why he remains constructive on US equities.In this discussion, Krishna explains how his team’s thinking has evolved since that spring call and the factors shaping their view today. Together, they explore the strength of the earnings backdrop, the risks that could challenge market momentum and why recent weakness in parts of the technology sector may not tell the full story.The conversation also examines Krishna’s recent research into disruption winners and losers. Drawing on previous periods of technological change, he explains the characteristics that have historically separated companies that adapted from those that struggled. As AI continues to reshape industries and business models, the research offers an historical lens through which investors can view one of today’s most significant market themes.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Disruption '26: A Framework for Differentiating Disruption Winners & LosersFood for Thought: Buyback pullbackListeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:Ep42 AI credit supply tests market capacity Ep 41 Challenging Market ConsensusEp 33 AI goes economy-wideImportant Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures

AI credit supply tests market capacity 28.07.2026 9p

The AI buildout is fuelling a wave of new credit supply, and the sheer volume of debt is starting to test the market's capacity to absorb it. Year-to-date, the AI ecosystem has accounted for roughly 20% of all US corporate bond issuance, and the six hyperscalers are now bigger than the big six banks in some key measures. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, and Dominique Toublan, Head of US Credit Strategy, discuss how AI financing is reshaping credit markets, why investors are demanding greater compensation to absorb this wave of new issuance, and what growing concentration among hyperscalers could mean for the broader investment-grade market.They also discuss how these companies are tapping every available funding channel, from public bonds and private credit to securitised markets and equities, to finance the AI buildout and why that is drawing increasing attention from equity investors.Listeners can hear more related to this topic:Episode 40: Cooling the AI buildout Episode 33: AI goes economy wideClients can read more on Barclays Live:AI-fueled Credit Supply: the slice keeps getting bigger Hyperscalers: Too wide to ignore, too much supply to chasePowering AI: Demystifying Data Center Cooling & Water Use Important Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content DisclosuresThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

Challenging market consensus 21.07.2026 9p

Markets can become crowded around consensus views. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Brian Kuritzky from our Rates Sales team to explore potential investor complacency, from expectations for the Fed to the way political risk is being priced.The conversation focuses on three ideas Kuritzky believes deserve more attention: the risks around energy and inflation expectations, the great wealth transfer and its potential impact on US economic resilience, and the headwinds facing the AI CapEx cycle including the domestic political pushback against data centre expansion.They also discuss why a more resilient US consumer could make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates, why dips in rates may create investment opportunities, and why market volatility may not be fully reflecting the uncertainty around policy, election and cross-asset risks.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:AI adoption and productivity: Early evidenceListeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:Episode 39: Opportunities in Asian EquitiesEpisode 35: US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain?Important Content Disclosures

Cooling the AI buildout 14.07.2026 8p

Power constraints have dominated the conversation around AI infrastructure, but the buildout is facing a broader convergence of execution risks. Cooling, water use, permitting, labour shortages and growing local opposition are emerging as critical factors that could affect where and how quickly new data centres are built.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, speaks with Will Thompson, Thematic Investing Research Analyst, about the challenges shaping the next phase of AI infrastructure. They explore why cooling is becoming increasingly important, how water use is emerging as a key consideration in data centre operations, and what these pressures could mean for deployment timelines and market expectations.They also discuss how hyperscalers are taking different approaches to cooling and water use, highlighting the complexity of balancing efficiency, sustainability and local impacts. Together, these pressures point to execution risks that may not yet be fully reflected in markets.Listeners can hear more related to this topic:AI goes economy widePhysical AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Powering AI: Demystifying Data Center Cooling & Water Use Powering AI: New Amazon Data Center Water Disclosure Implies High Electricity Use Important Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content DisclosuresThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

Opportunities in Asian Equities 07.07.2026 9p

Investor positioning across Asian equities is shifting, with opportunities increasingly driven by market-specific factors rather than a single regional or thematic narrative.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Kaan Singh, Head of APAC Barclays Equities Tactical Strategies and Flow Equity Derivatives, to dive in to where investors are putting money to work in Asia and why.They discuss the rotation toward Japan, as investors look beyond the most crowded AI and semiconductor trades and search for more durable structural themes. Alongside this, the conversation explores early signs of re-engagement in China, supported by improving market sentiment and upcoming tech IPOs, and Korea’s highly concentrated semiconductor and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market.Looking ahead, they consider how market expectations around AI investment are evolving and offer a clearer lens on how opportunities across Asian equities could develop.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Cross Asset Research, Korea: Large investment plan from the semiconductor manufacturersSamsung & SK Hynix: Pricing Tailwinds IntactThinking Macro: The best AI value might be hiding in TokyoChina Technology: The Forest Report – 1Q26 EditionAsia Credit Alpha: AI central in Korea/ChinaListeners can also explore the topic further:Q3 2026 Global Outlook: Solid fundamentals, fewer bargainsImportant Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research content disclosures

Brexit, Burnham and Britain's Next Decade 30.06.2026 10p

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, many studies assess the effects on the UK economy as negative, pointing to weaker growth, lower investment and a tighter fiscal backdrop as its legacy. But the focus now is forward-looking. After Andy Burnham set out his 10-year economic vision centred on devolving more power to Britain’s cities and regions, the debate is shifting from what Brexit changed to what kind of economic model could define Britain’s next decade.Joining Patrick Coffey, UK Chief Economist Jack Meaning reviews the state of the UK economy today, including subdued growth, inflation that remains close to 3%,and the limited room any future Chancellor has on borrowing, tax and spending. They examine whether greater devolution could support stronger growth and identify potential policy changes investors should watch. They also highlight why the UK’s underlying fundamentals may be stronger than market sentiment often suggests.This episode was recorded on Monday 29 June at 3pm British Summer Time.Listeners can hear more related to this topic:-Decoding the bond sell-offClients can read more on Barclays Live:-First Look: Burnham speech-UK – 10 years after Brexit-Making Sense of MakerfieldImportant Content Disclosures

Can football fever lift the economy? 23.06.2026 9p

The World Cup has kicked off across North America in its largest and most geographically dispersed format yet. This year, the tournament expands to 48 teams (up from 32 in 2022), 104 matches (vs. 64) and 16 host cities across the US, Canada and Mexico. The scale is set to drive a surge of visitors, viewership and national pride, but the economic payoff may be short-lived.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, sits down with Pooja Sriram, Senior US Economist, to discuss the tournament’s economic implications for host countries, how viewership could translate into value, which sectors stand to benefit most and why demand looks uneven. Listeners can hear more related to this topic:Prediction markets: a new market signal Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? Clients can read more on Barclays Live:World Cup 2026: Viewership drives value Cupflation: The World Cup effect on prices ¡Goool! World Cup Day 1Important Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures

The rise of the consumer health economy 16.06.2026 10p

Consumer health is undergoing a structural shift, moving beyond traditional treatment and becoming embedded in everyday spending. Where consumers were once focused on curing illness, they are increasingly aiming for prevention, with demand extending across categories from supplements and sports nutrition to oral health and functional foods.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Warren Ackerman, Head of European Consumer Staples Research, to explore how this shift in consumer behaviour is reshaping the industry.They discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated consumer interest in self-care, driving sustained demand for health-related products and increasing the role of e-commerce in the category. The conversation also examines where growth is emerging today, from increased spend in established categories to new areas supported by advancing science, as well as how these trends differ across developed and emerging markets.They explore how the industry is evolving as it becomes more consumer-led, and where the next opportunities lie, including e-commerce and more personalised health solutions.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:The Future of Consumer Health: Growing PainsConsumer Health: The leaders and laggardsIndia Consumer Health: The next battlegroundListeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:Weight loss drugs: Scaling‑upImportant Content Disclosures

US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain? 09.06.2026 12p

US equities have delivered strong gains year-to-date, despite a challenging macro backdrop, but that momentum is beginning to look less secure. While fundamentals remain supportive, the near‑term setup is becoming more stretched.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Alex Altman, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies in our Markets division, to break down his shift to a short-term tactically cautious view.They discuss how the balance of risks has begun to shift, with elevated euphoria and crowded positioning — particularly in AI‑linked momentum trades — leaving markets more exposed if that positioning unwinds. At the same time, higher real yields are starting to weigh on valuations, making the forward return profile less compelling, despite resilient earnings and macro data. They also examine equity supply, with a growing pipeline of IPOs and broader issuance adding complexity to the near‑term outlook. Taken together, these dynamics point to a more fragile setup. Patrick and Alex explore how the market may evolve and what role a pullback could play in resetting the current environment.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:The Global Volatility Pulse: Macro stumble, technical resetEquity Market Review: Shaky momentum, nascent rotationU.S. Equity-Linked Strategies: AI Capex Funding: Why Equity? Why Converts?Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:The Fed's next move The cusp of a capex supercycleA bullish view on US equitiesImportant Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures

The Fed’s next move 02.06.2026 8p

The path for US interest rates has shifted sharply in recent months, as markets move from pricing rate cuts to pricing a potential hike. In this episode, Ronnie Wexler sits down with Barclays’ Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni to look at what’s driving that shift.At the centre of the discussion is inflation. While headline inflation has been pushed higher by rising energy prices driven by the Iran war, the key question for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is whether those pressures feed through into core inflation and ultimately shift longer-term expectations. That, Giannoni argues, is what could determine the Fed’s next move.The conversation also turns to the US consumer. Slowing real income growth, higher gasoline prices and a cooling labour market are starting to weigh on household spending, raising questions about how resilient demand can remain. Whilst these pressures could drive consumer spending down, the US consumer has surprised to the upside many times before according to Giannoni.So what should investors watch next? From inflation prints to consumer behaviour, listen to learn which signals could shape the Fed’s policy path in the months ahead.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Waiting for the dealWhat would trigger a 2026 Fed hike?Consumers feeling the strainApril consumer spending moderating amid faltering incomeListeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI Decoding the bond sell-off Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars?Important Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures

AI goes economy-wide 26.05.2026 11p

Productivity growth has been uneven across many sectors and economies. But AI in the form of humanoid robotics could change that, extending automation into physical services at scale.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, to discuss what this shift could mean for productivity and the wider macro outlook. Keller explains that while a jobless future remains unlikely, the long‑running balance between labour and capital could continue to evolve as a broader range of tasks are automated.The conversation explores how combining cognitive and physical automation increases capital intensity and raises the importance of inputs such as electricity and commodities. They also consider how these forces could influence inflation dynamics and interest rates.As automation spreads into the physical economy, understanding where productivity gains may accrue – and what constrains them – becomes increasingly important. Listen now to hear the full discussion.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:•How humanoid robotics matters for macro •Ten things to know about humanoids •The decade of the robot belongs to China •Embodied AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?Listeners can also hear more episodes about developments of physical AI:•Robots deliver dinner and profits•Rise of the humanoid robots•AI Revolution: China’s Five-Year Plan Important Content Disclosures

Decoding the bond sell-off 19.05.2026 11p

Global bond yields have been rising sharply, with long-term yields breaking higher across multiple markets - pushing US 30‑year yields above 5%.The sell-off was initially triggered by energy-linked inflation resulting from the Iran war, but increasingly reflects a broader, cross‑market re-pricing, with fiscal pressures, shifting rate expectations and signs of bear‑flattening emerging in key markets.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Lucile Flight, Managing Director in Rates Trading, joins Patrick Coffey to examine what’s driving the move in different regions – from political uncertainty shaping UK gilts to changing views on neutral rates in the US and a dialled-back ECB response in Europe. They discuss what could bring yields down again and where investors are seeing the most compelling opportunities across global rates.Listeners can hear more on this topic:Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Thinking Macro: No saving grace Federal Reserve Commentary: What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike?United Kingdom Outlook: What a week...Global Economics Weekly: Leaders meet and bonds shriek

Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI 12.05.2026 12p

Markets are facing two competing inflation stories at the same time: a near‑term energy shock pushing inflation risks higher, and the possibility that AI acts as a medium to longer-run disinflationary force.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey, Global Head of the Product Management, sits down with Jon Hill, Head of US Inflation Strategy, to break down how energy price spikes feed into headline versus core inflation, what breakevens and real yields are signalling, and how central banks may respond to energy shocks they can’t control. They also discuss whether core inflation dynamics are drifting back toward a pre‑COVID structure, and how AI could shape the path ahead through productivity, wages and margins.Listeners can hear more on this topic:Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide Clients can read more on Barclays Live:The view from overseas A Claudy inflation outlook Important Content Disclosures

Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? 05.05.2026 10p

Jet fuel shortages linked to the continuing Iran war are dominating headlines, raising questions about whether this poses a genuine risk to global travel or whether markets are getting ahead of the reality.As the airline industry moves toward the peak summer travel period, Patrick Coffey sits down with our Head of European Transport Equity Research, Andrew Lobbenberg, to dissect what’s happening in aviation fuel markets. They explore the known knowns and the known unknowns at this moment, including why Europe is more exposed than other regions, and who will likely bear the costs if constraints persist.The episode also examines the realistic scenarios for airlines and passengers, from short‑term disruption to longer-term implications.Listen now to cut through the headlines and understand what this period of uncertainty means for the aviation sector, its investors and its consumers.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:•European Transportation: Airline potential fuel shortages•European Airlines: Messy uncertain days - March quarter preview•European Integrated Energy: Assessing the diesel and kerosene shortage risk•European Lodging - War and Peace: Scenario Analysis on Conflict, Fuel Supply and Oil PricesImportant Content Disclosures

Credit: the signals markets can’t ignore 28.04.2026 8p

Credit markets often process stress before other parts of the market are able to. During periods of volatility, the signals they send can help investors distinguish between shocks that are likely to prove temporary and those that risk becoming more systemic.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Head of Equities, sits down with Drew Mogavero, Global Head of Credit Products and CEO of Barclays Capital Inc., to explore why credit markets have remained relatively stable during recent periods of stress. They discuss how investment‑grade and higher quality high yield have continued to find support and what this demand reveals about market conditions. The conversation also looks at how credit signals can inform views across equities and rates, where stress tends to emerge first, and what today’s market dynamics reveal about the broader economic backdrop.Listeners can hear more on this topic:Processing uncertainty in real timeCredit markets: What's ahead for 2026Private credit: Hidden interconnectivityClients can read more on Barclays Live:Not that quiet beneath the surfaceWoes of waiting Important Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

Robots deliver dinner and profits 21.04.2026 10p

Food delivery is changing fast, with last-mile autonomous hardware being developed and deployed at pace. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Guillaume Galland to explore how robots and drones are beginning to reshape food delivery economics around the world.Drawing on ground‑level observations from cities including Los Angeles, Helsinki, Dublin and Dubai, Guillaume explains why autonomous delivery adoption differs by geography, and why some markets are already seeing meaningful penetration.The conversation breaks down the two core technologies now in play – aerial drones and ground‑based robots – and they discuss where each are best suited to excel.The discussion also covers the economics driving momentum in the sector – how autonomous delivery stacks up against human couriers from costs, speed and reliability, and if they offer an enhancement for consumers and restaurants alike. They also look past the exciting developments and look at the hurdles that remain, ranging from regulation and operational complexity.Crucially, this is not about replacing human riders altogether, as Guillaume explains. Physical AI is a structural lever that will sit alongside traditional delivery models, changing how the last mile works rather than removing people from it.Listen in to understand where autonomous food delivery is gaining traction, what’s holding it back, and why it matters for platforms, restaurants and investors watching the future of last‑mile logistics.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Robot at the Door: Last-Mile ShiftListeners can also hear more episodes about developments of physical AI:Robotaxis: The future of mobilityRise of the humanoid robotsAI Revolution: China’s Five-Year PlanImportant Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

Prediction markets: A new market signal 14.04.2026 10p

Prediction markets are suddenly top of mind for a range of people. From elections and sporting events to pop culture and breaking news, probabilities are flashing across screens in real time. What started as a niche concept is increasingly being treated as a signal for how uncertainty gets processed and priced.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler sits down with US Gaming Research Analyst, Brandt Montour, to explore why prediction markets have surged into the spotlight. They dig into how these platforms work, why the “wisdom of crowds” has captured attention across media and finance, and what’s driving the growth in activity and valuations.The conversation goes beyond the hype, tackling the growing regulatory pushback, the tension between state and federal oversight, and the key differences between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. They also examine who’s winning, who’s losing, and what the rapid shift in capital across the gaming landscape may be signaling for investors thinking about how to position as this market continues to evolve.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Mounting Opposition, but No Quick Regulatory EndgamePredicting a Sports Launch - 72¢Prediction markets for CPI?Important Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

The quantum computing moment 07.04.2026 12p

Quantum computing has long been viewed as a future technology. Now, it’s poised to overtake classical computing systems in specific useful tasks in the next 12-24 months.In this episode of Barclays Brief, Laia Marin joins Patrick Coffey to discuss why now may be the time for corporates and investors to engage with quantum computing. They break down the fundamentals, including the different modalities, and its potential to solve complex business problems, analysing unstructured data and developing complex optimisation solutions.Laia also explores the current limitations of quantum systems, the competing qubit modalities racing to scale, and how quantum computing is additive to classical computing infrastructure, potentially allowing companies to integrate quantum capabilities alongside existing systems, rather than replacing them.This episode offers an accessible overview of where quantum stands today – and how to start preparing for its impact.Listeners can hear more on this topic:•Episode 20: Software: In the AI stormClients can read more on Barclays Live:•Quantum Computing: The race is on•Quantum Computing: Friend, not foe•Quantum Computing: Correcting the biggest investor myths around quantumImportant Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

The cusp of a capex supercycle 31.03.2026 13p

In recent months, market narratives have been dominated by geopolitical shocks, energy volatility and higher interest rates. But step back, and a much bigger story is coming into focus.Advanced economies may be on the cusp of a new, historic investment cycle – one with the potential to rival the great build‑outs of the past, from 19th‑century railroads to the Apollo missions and the information‑technology boom of the 1990s.While much of the capex narrative has focused on AI and the race by hyperscalers to build faster, more efficient models, this is only one part of the picture. Energy systems, electrification, defence spending and economic resilience are all reinforcing the scale of capital deployment now underway.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Chief Economist at Barclays, to examine how 150 years of investment data show that long periods of under‑investment are often followed by powerful capex cycles and why after two decades of weakness, the latest numbers point to the early stages of one with historic potential.Listeners can hear more on this topic:•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time•Episode 17: Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?•Episode 7: US dollar & the AI capex cycleClients can read more on Barclays Live:•Supersize me: The coming investment cycle•Cracks, but not a crater (Q2 Global Outlook)•Defence Quarterly: a 10-year cycle still to come?Important Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

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