Pitch The PM

Episodi

• EP035: "From Citadel & Millennium to Building AI for the Buy-Side" with Eric Moster 10.06.2026 44min

  In the new Pitch The PM series, The Wall Street Entrepreneur premier, Doug Garber speaks with former Citadel colleague, Eric Moster, CEO of Portrait Analytics and former portfolio manager at Millennium and Analyst at Surveyor Capital. Eric shares his transition from hedge fund investing into building AI-powered research tools purpose-built for institutional investors. The discussion explores how Portrait Research helps analysts monitor information flow, generate investment ideas, and accelerate deep fundamental research workflows. Eric explains the evolution of the platform from productivity software into a customized intelligence engine capable of identifying new opportunities based on an investor’s specific framework. They also examine the challenges of building AI products for hedge funds, balancing signal versus noise, scaling a startup, and why narrowing product focus became critical to Portrait’s growth strategy.  _____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction to Eric Moster and his move from investing to entrepreneurship.[00:00:36] Eric’s background at Citadel, Millennium, and Surveyor Capital.[00:01:14] How ChatGPT changed Eric’s view of AI and investing.[00:02:24] Joining Portrait Research alongside founder David Plon.[00:03:55] Eric’s path from first business hire to CEO.[00:05:28] Portrait’s evolution and product roadmap.[00:05:36] Overview of Portrait’s AI research and monitoring tools.[00:06:40] Tracking material information across industries.[00:08:04] Doug’s experience using Portrait.[00:08:48] Data quality challenges and filtering noise.[00:10:55] Using Reddit and alternative sources for investment insights.[00:11:50] Monitoring sentiment shifts and public reactions.[00:12:51] Determining what information is truly material.[00:14:29] Management guidance and investor interpretation.[00:16:55] Embedding hedge fund expertise into AI systems.[00:18:18] Why idea generation is the highest-value workflow.[00:20:42] Introduction to Portrait Intelligence.[00:22:03] Applying custom investment frameworks at scale.[00:24:03] Ranking opportunities based on framework fit.[00:25:10] Moving from productivity gains to revenue generation.[00:26:44] Learning from historical investment decisions.[00:29:41] Identifying recurring behavioral patterns.[00:30:34] Conducting objective investment postmortems.[00:31:35] Generating detailed turnaround investment reports.[00:33:58] Expanding the investment funnel with AI.[00:34:37] Why every framework is customized.[00:35:44] Ideal customer profiles and use cases.[00:36:52] Customer growth and adoption metrics.[00:37:55] Team growth, runway, and go-to-market strategy.[00:39:22] Pricing and product positioning.[00:39:59] Lessons on startup focus and prioritization.[00:41:20] Products Portrait intentionally shut down.[00:43:43] Final thoughts on entrepreneurship and investing. Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  Eric Moster on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-moster-3006779 📩 Subscribe to our substack: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ 
• EP 034: T. Rowe’s TURF, is Bullish the Canadian Oil Sands & The Oil Cycle 02.06.2026 33min

  Priyal Maniar, Co-PM of TURF and Global Energy Analyst, dives deep into why T. Rowe - who manages $1.8 Trillion - is structurally bullish the oil cycle.The marginal cost of production is increasing and US shale geology has peaked meaning the next well is more expensive and less productive. The recent U.S. - Iran war, wipes out the over supply from the start of the year and pulls forward the bullish productivity decline thesis. It also puts energy security in focus and improves demand for energy sources like coal. TURF expresses the bullish oil bet through an overweight position in Oil Sands producers such as Suncor (SU), Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Pyrial also highlights her top U.S. oil picks that have idiosyncratic catalysts in their FCF inflections coming up. Her top idea has free cash flow doubling over the next four years at flat prices with a great management team and a great balance sheet and ample low cost inventory. She also highlights three other names with ample inventory and FCF inflections. She notes that these stocks do well when large projects wind down free cash flow inflects.🔍 What You’ll Learn:Why U.S. shale geology has peaked, and why that’s bullish, not bearishHow to think about the marginal barrel at $70+ and risingWhy Canadian Oil Sands offer the best duration in global energyHow mining-style economics differ from shale (OPEX vs. CAPEX curve)The real math on Venezuela’s revival: $50-100B and 10 yearsWhy energy security is now a structural demand driverHow the Strait of Hormuz disruption changes Middle East midstream Global LNG after the Qatar train outages and project delaysThe coal-to-gas switching dynamic setting global gas pricesWhy AI power demand extends the runway for U.S. natural gasHow electrification, nuclear, and SMRs fit into the energy stackPriyal’s top conviction names: Canadian E&Ps, and….How to use AI in the research process without getting front-runTimestamps[00:00] – Intro: U.S. Shale Peak Debate 01:00 – Why It Doesn't Matter If Shale Peaks: Cost Curve Matters 02:15 – Long Energy Cycles & S&P Energy vs. S&P 500 [03:30] – The Marginal Barrel Today: Guyana, Brazil, Middle East, Shale [05:00] – Shale Elasticity & Where Marginal Cost Goes Next[06:00] – Iran War Impact on the Oil Setup [07:15] – Energy Security as a Structural Demand Driver [08:30] – How to Express the Thesis in TURF[09:30] – Low-Cost U.S. E&Ps with Inventory & Balance Sheet [10:30]– The Canadian Oil Sands Bull Case [11:45] – Oil Sands Economics: Mining vs. Shale Decline Curves [13:00] – Why No New Greenfield Mines Get Sanctioned[14:15]– Venezuela: Heavy Oil Revival Math [15:30] – Chevron's Unique Position & Production Growth [16:45]– Political Risk: Venezuela vs. U.S. Election Cycles[18:00] – Middle East Egress & Pipeline Redundancies [19:15]– Aramco, ADNOC & National Project Dynamics [20:30] – East-West Pipeline Capacity & U.S. Expertise[21:45 ]– Global LNG: Qatar Outages & Project Delays [23:00] – Coal as the New Price-Setting Fuel [26:45] – Long-Term Bullish on Henry Hub [27:45] – Offshore Comeback: Conoco Alaska, Clearwater, Namibia, Guyana [30:30] – AI Power Demand & U.S. Gas Longevity [31:45] – Utilities, Nuclear & SMRs as Part of the Stack[33:00] – Advice for Aspiring Investors: Dig for the Next Insight [34:15] – How Priyal Uses AI in Her Research Process📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug's structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5YListen on Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer
• EP033 - Cerebras (CBRS): Thematic Winner in AI Compute Shortage with SemiAnalysis’ President 20.05.2026 35min

  In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Doug O’Laughlin, President of SemiAnalysis, about the explosive demand for AI infrastructure and the market reaction to Cerebras’ IPO. Doug O breaks down Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip architecture, its advantages in ultra-fast inference, and the limitations caused by memory scaling constraints. The discussion examines how NVIDIA continues to dominate large-scale AI workloads while specialized alternatives carve out niche roles in the broader compute ecosystem. They also explore the rise of agentic AI workflows, the growing economics of tokens and inference demand, and why frontier AI models are reshaping software development, legal work, and enterprise productivity. Doug O shares insights into how SemiAnalysis is using AI internally, why compute demand continues accelerating, and what the next wave of AI IPOs could mean for investors and the semiconductor industry.Tickers: #CBRS, #NVDA, #CRWV_____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Doug O’Laughlin compares Cerebras’ inference speed advantage to an F1 car versus NVIDIA as a bus.[00:00:20] Discussion of agentic AI workflows driving a major increase in compute demand.[00:00:31] Introduction to the episode and the focus on Cerebras’ technology and IPO.[00:01:36] Why Cerebras’ niche technology emerged during a historic compute shortage.[00:02:47] Breakdown of Cerebras’ SRAM-based architecture and the original technology bet.[00:03:55] Explanation of SRAM scaling limitations and memory density constraints.[00:05:26] Whether Cerebras can evolve beyond its current inference niche.[00:05:53] Emerging trends in disaggregated inference and hybrid AI architectures.[00:08:46] Why Cerebras can outperform NVIDIA in specific low-latency inference use cases.[00:09:10] The tradeoff between single-user speed and large-scale throughput.[00:13:18] Discussion of small language models versus frontier AI models.[00:13:45] Why Doug believes best-of-breed AI models continue to win in the market.[00:17:18] Legal industry productivity gains and concerns around shared AI training data.[00:18:07] How AI dramatically lowers the cost of accessing professional expertise.[00:19:11] Sponsor discussion and transition into Cerebras’ stock performance.[00:21:01] Doug’s perspective on the broader AI IPO environment and investor demand.[00:24:59] Supply and demand dynamics for AI-related equities and semiconductor exposure.[00:25:54] Comparison between equity enthusiasm and private credit caution in AI infrastructure.[00:26:58] Why GPU pricing increases indicate overwhelming AI compute demand.[00:28:30] Agentic AI workflows and cloud coding as the major inflection point for compute usage.[00:28:38] SemiAnalysis spending over $10,000 per week on APIs to accelerate productivity.[00:29:56] How AI tools are changing hiring needs and software engineering capabilities.[00:30:18] Examples of collapsing information work timelines through AI automation.[00:31:39] Disclosure discussion and SemiAnalysis’ relationships with leading AI companies.[00:32:09] Doug O explains SemiAnalysis’ approach to independent research and updating priors.[00:33:07] Doug O’Laughlin shares his background working on the buy side at Blue Capital.[00:34:10] Future plans for SemiAnalysis and the rise of “tokenomics” research.Links:Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Doug O’Laughlin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougolaughlin/ 💡 This episode is powered by the Oxford Data Plan. Use the link here for Complimentary access 📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe
• EP:32: CBRS: AI’s New Leader? With the Pre-IPO Champ 14.05.2026 1h

  In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Chris Murphy about his pre-IPO investment strategy and why $CBRS is his largest investment. Chris previously spent 17 years scaling a multi billion fund and is now focused on his pre-IPO PA (personal account) investment strategy.Chris has dug-in deep, hitting the road and reading heaps of expert call transcripts from Alpha Sense and Third Bridge. He believes inference speed will become one of the most valuable advantages in the race to AGI (artificial general intelligence). The conversation examines the advantages of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design, the growing importance of fast inference for agentic AI workflows and the price/cost trade-off. OpenAI was the first mover, securing initial capacity and options. AWS has a term sheet for capacity. The chip market is evolving and Doug & Chris debate the implications for NVIDIA, Google and Amazon. Tickers: $CBRS, $NVDA, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META[00:00:00] Chris Murphy explains why AI inference speed will become a key competitive advantage.[00:00:20] Doug Garber introduces Chris Murphy and discusses Cerebras’ IPO and price discovery.[00:00:57] Chris Murphy shares his background in public and private market investing.[00:03:44] Chris outlines his framework for evaluating pre-IPO investments.[00:04:31] Why Chris believed inference would become the AI “money maker.”[00:05:08] Chris explains how Cerebras removes bottlenecks in agentic AI workflows.[00:06:07] Discussion on token economics, inference speed, and use case advantages.[00:08:28] Cerebras’ position in fast inference versus Groq and NVIDIA.[00:09:30] Breakdown of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design and routing fabric.[00:11:48] Chris discusses the research behind his Cerebras investment thesis.[00:12:35] Expert network transcripts, proprietary calls, and diligence methods.[00:13:14] Chris walks through his revenue framework for OpenAI, AWS, and others.[00:15:12] Discussion on customer concentration risk and OpenAI exposure.[00:15:53] Why Amazon could benefit from combining Trainium with Cerebras chips.[00:17:15] Competitive positioning versus Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs.[00:18:39] Why inference is expected to outgrow training workloads.[00:20:33] Chris explains his OpenAI revenue assumptions through 2033.[00:23:48] How AWS and Anthropic fit into the broader Cerebras opportunity.[00:26:24] Chris discusses Cerebras as an “arms dealer” in the AGI race.[00:29:49] Feedback from engineers and users testing Cerebras chips.[00:32:59] How AI systems route workloads across chips and inference models.[00:34:54] Chris explains assumptions around Cerebras’ AWS inference share.[00:36:35] Discussion on pricing, leasing models, and AWS exclusivity.[00:39:49] Breakdown of G42, MBZUAI, and other customer relationships.[00:42:55] Chris explains why the long-term revenue opportunity makes investors uncomfortable.[00:45:38] Discussion on customer warrants and partnerships with OpenAI and AWS.[00:49:25] Speculation around potential relationships with Meta and Google.[00:50:16] Gross margin expectations, scalability, and long-term profitability.[00:52:43] Doug Garber summarizes execution risks and the AI infrastructure landscape.[00:55:19] Chris shares his long-term outlook on Cerebras and position sizing.[00:59:16] Final thoughts on AI enthusiasm, IPO risks, and investing discipline.Links:Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Chris Murphy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrismurphyhqPowered by AlphaSense. Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/Complimentary pre-built CBRS excel model — https://istari.insyncanalytics.com/pitchthepm/?model=IPO&template=CBRSSubscribe to our newsletter: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeThis episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclosure: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer
• EP:31 Getting into T. Rowe Price - The Right Investment Process (Part 1) 09.05.2026 15min

  In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Priyal Maniar, Global Energy Investor at T. Rowe Price | Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager of Natural Resources ETF (TURF) to discuss the path that led her to one of the most coveted firms on the street.Priyal walks through her journey from BlackRock to T.Rowe, how an early passion for equity research and mentorship shaped her investing lens. She talks about T. Rowe's collaboratiove Analyst & PM invstment culture and what it actually takes to stand out at one of the top  investmet houses in the world.This episode is all about Priyal's journey and investment process — how great stock pickers develop repeatable frameworks, build trust with colleagues and turn research into real capital allocation.Stay tuned for Part 2 — where we dive deep into the energy cycle and TURF’s big Oil Sands bet… What you'll learn:How Priyal built her foundation through value-focused investingInside T. Rowe’s intense interview process (30+ interviews, stock pitches)The traits that matter: curiosity, deep work, and flexible convictionHow the $100B+ analyst-run fund works in practiceHow analysts build a track record before managing capitalHow ideas actually spread across a multi-trillion platformWhy collaboration starts before the pitchThe importance of field research and PM alignmentHow to build mindshare in under-owned sectors like energyWhy process > being right onceTimestamps00:00 – Intro01:00 – Priyal’s Background: India → Early Market Exposure02:00 – Breaking In: BlackRock → Brandywine & Value Investing Roots03:15 – Reaching Back Out to T. Rowe Price & Interview Process04:30 – What T. Rowe Looks For: Curiosity, Deep Research, Fit05:30 – Role Today: Coverage & Analyst Responsibilities06:30 – Inside the $100B+ Analyst-Run Research Fund07:30 – TURF ETF & Expanding Access08:15 – How Ideas Get Shared Across the Platform09:15 – Reports, Meetings & “Walking the Floor” Culture10:15 – PM Pushback & Real-Time Collaboration11:15 – Field Research & Building Buy-In Early12:15 – Gaining Mindshare as an Energy Analyst13:15 – Process > Calls: Building Trust Over Time Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5YListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer
• EP030: Remove Macro From Your Stocks 01.05.2026 14min

  In this episode, Doug Garber joins The Investment Memo to break down how hedge fund investors navigate macro volatility, manage risk inside low vol pod structures and stay focused on generating alpha.Doug shares how portfolio managers think during “risk-off” environments, why macro should not be your core thesis, and how strategies evolve inside multi-manager platforms.The conversation also dives into how he managed a portfolio as a PM, short selling dynamics, and the structural realities of hedge fund risk frameworks.🔑 TakeawaysRisk management over conviction during macro volatilityMacro matters—but shouldn’t be the core part of your thesisHigh short interest stocks work over time—but can be painful during unwindsThe best portfolios aim to neutralize what they can’t predict⏱️ Chapters[00:00] Intro[01:05] Career Path to Hedge Fund PM[04:39] Navigating Macro Regime Shifts[06:05] Pod Shop Dynamics & Talent Retention[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs[07:15] Fundamental L/S Investing[12:33] War, Oil & Macro Uncertainty[15:00] Energy Outlook & Implications[18:52] Hedging & Risk Management📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimerThis episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.
• EP029: War & Markets | How a Former Sr. Millennium PM invests in Equities 28.04.2026 19min

  Ep. 29: War & Markets | How a Former Sr. Millennium PM Invests in EquitiesIn this episode, Doug joins Hyun Hong of The Investment Memo to break down how a buy-side investor is navigating today’s market backdrop.Doug shares how he thinks about building a variant view, managing risk in uncertain macro environments, and what’s actually driving the current conversation around oil, war, and recession risk.The conversation also dives into the evolving hedge fund landscape — from pod shop fatigue and talent migration to how analysts and PMs are adapting their process in a world increasingly dominated by macro volatility.Chapters:[00:00] Intro[01:05] Career Path to a Hedge Fund PM[04:39] What is your Variant View[06:05] Pod shop Exhaustion? Talent retention & exodus[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs[07:15] Fundamental Equities L/S Analyst[12:33] War & Oil & Recession[15:00] oil here for higher & longer? what then?[18:52] So how do you hedge?To be continued in Part 2…📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimerThis episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.
• EP028: Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer 30.03.2026 1h 6min

  Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer. Coming Soon: $LOKV → $TMSDoug Garber chats with Michael Brown (Teamshares, TMS) and Rick Hendrix (Live Oak, LOKV) about taking a programmatic acquirer of small businesses public via a DSPAC — the sourcing tech, capital plan, and why this opens a new asset class for investors. 🚀In this episode:How Teamshares buys retirement-sale SMEs, systemizes sourcing (70k leads → <1% close) and runs them as audited subsidiaries. 🧩The advantages of being public include a lower cost of capital and the ability to leverage the infrastructure the team has built to acquire and run SME’s efficiently. The large runway to continue to acquire companies at around 15-20% ROE’s.The company could be FCF positive in the near future and be self-funding. T. Rowe Price has already anchored the PIPE.Subscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for weekly market insights, episode follow-ups, and our job board!https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access💡Model tools by InSyncAnalytics: The complete buy-side model productivity suitThis episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://PitchThePM.comListen on Spotify • Subscribe for new episodes 🎧Disclaimer: Educational only — not investment advice.
• EP 027: Compounder Guru Sean Emory on why Block, $XYZ, is Far From Done 29.03.2026 35min

  In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Sean Emory, founder of Avory & Co., an investment firm focused on high-conviction, fundamentals-driven investing. Sean recently launched the Avory ETF ($AVRY), bringing his firm’s research-driven stock-picking approach to public investors.Sean outlines his “6 M” investment process that has allowed him to compound at nearly 20% for the last decade with low turnover for FO’s, UHNW, and RIA’s.Doug and Sean discuss why XYZ is one his largest weightings. • Cash App growth and monetization trends• Square’s re-acceleration in merchant volumes• The reality behind the software job cuts, the impact of AI vs over hiring• The role of credit products like Cash App Borrow• Competitive dynamics in fintech and digital payments• Risks, including macro conditions and credit cycles📩 Want to know if Doug bought the pitch?Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y?si=cb521c1e758246a1Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer
• EP026: ($HSY) Hershey’s Sweet Comeback: Historic Cocoa Reversion to Boost Margins 26.03.2026 22min

  $HSY: Historic Price/Cost Tailwinds as Historic Cocoa Price Spike Reverses 🍫📈Pitch The PM sat down with Mark Rogers (SIGMIT Advisors / Heddy Creek Research) to break down what may be one of the cleanest price-cost setups in consumer staples right now: Hershey ($HSY).After a brutal cocoa inflation cycle crushed margins, cocoa prices are now reversing sharply. The Street has started revising numbers higher — and Mark believes the magnitude of the earnings reset is still under appreciated.📊 The Variant ViewCocoa deflation is flowing into gross margins over time.Pricing increases are sticky giving favorable price/cost.EPS revisions are the key, we think the trend is your friend as cocoa deflation rolls through the PnL.Mark believes $9–$9.50 next year is achievable — and may not be peak.If $HSY earns ~$9–$9.50 and staples trade high-20s multiples, fair value could approach $270–$285 per Rogers.💰 Valuation MathVariant View:Margins could overshoot historical averages as they recover leading to positive revisions. A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)Disclosure: Doug still owns $RMCF. Mark sold $HSY after the strong quarter.*Not investment advice. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE...Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer
• EP025: Opening the Strait of Hormuz With Kevin Book, ClearView Energy Partners 13.03.2026 37min

  Opening the Strait of Hormuz with Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners | Pitch The PMThe Strait of Hormuz is closed. Twenty million barrels of oil per day flow through that narrow channel. When it shuts down, the world feels it. The duration of the closure is the key to accessing the global ripple effects. Doug Garber sits down with Kevin Book, one of Washington's most respected energy policy analysts, for a real-time breakdown of the crisis. Kevin leads Clearview Energy Partners, an independent research firm that has spent decades writing economic and policy research on energy for institutional investors and corporate leaders. He has seen a lot. He says this is different.They cover what it actually takes to reopen the strait, what Iran is doing to keep it closed, and what the US military can and cannot do. They get into the nuclear question, the LNG shock, China's deep energy vulnerability, and what happens to sanctioned barrel flows from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. They talk about strategic reserves, risk premiums, production responses, and what history tells us about how these crises end.This is not a surface level take. Kevin brings the data, the geopolitical context, and tDoug brings the hard questions the market is asking right now.Guest: Kevin Book, Managing Partner, Clearview Energy Partners Host: Doug Garber, Pitch The PM, former Millennium Senior PM and top Citadel AnalystChapters: [00:00] Intro [01:18] Reopening the Strait of Hormuz [03:09] Naval escort precedent [04:11] Shipping risk and insurance [06:34] Iran’s remaining threat capacity [08:15] Iran nuclear facilities and uncertainty [12:06] Why oil spiked [17:20] Oil and LNG supply at risk [21:56] SPRs and alternate routes [22:26] Can higher prices restart US production? [24:15] China’s energy vulnerability [34:02] What this means for Taiwan [36:49] The endgame in Iran [45:38] What investors are asking nowSubscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for Buy-Side insights from an ex Sr. PM Millennium/Citadel Analyst, investment process frameworks, job openings, and if Doug did bought or sold the episodes pitch: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on SpotifyListen on Apple Podcasts💡 Presented by AlphaSense. Get a free trial!This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures.
• EP 024: Unlocking Venezuela: Governance, Production Potential, and the Global Oil Balance 03.03.2026 54min

  Doug Garber sits down with Paul Sankey (Sankey Research) and Xavier Smith (AlphaSense) to break down what it would actually take to “unlock Venezuela” — and why the biggest oil-market impact may be second-order (US capex behavior), not an overnight flood of barrels.Despite the headline excitement around a post-Maduro reset and a new hydrocarbons law, Sankey argues Venezuela remains a long-road “investability” story: rule of law, arbitration, security, and legacy claims (Exxon/Conoco) still dominate the timeline. Near-term gains are most credible through Chevron’s existing footprint, with heavier barrels reshaping Gulf Coast refining dynamics and Canadian heavy differentials at the margin.📉 Bias / Framework: Sankey views the near-term upside as incremental barrels + changing incentives, not a rush of IOC capital. Public E&Ps remain anchored to capex discipline and uncertainty around future supply.💥 Catalysts / Watch Items:Chevron execution + export/logistics normalizationEvidence of real rule-of-law improvements (arbitration credibility, contract sanctity)Resolution (or escalation) of legacy claims and payment/legal structuresNew entrants into the Venezuelan oil business are now allowed.Heavier-barrel flows shifting refinery economics and heavy differentials💰 Setup / Market Mechanics:Near-term: modest Venezuela adds can still matter at the margin particularly for refiners who consume this feedstock.Medium-term: Field level security and certainty of payment will dictate the ultimate upside🎯 Bottom LineThis is about controlling the oil in the Western Hemisphere over the long-term. Don't expect a material production ramp so quickly other than what Chevron can ramp on with their in country resources. ⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Welcome + format[01:32] 2026/2027 Venezuela production outlook + Chevron’s role[05:13] The “US reinvestment” externality[14:40] Who invests (majors vs privates) + getting paid[20:06] Why $70 Brent isn’t a simple green light[24:30] European “green shoots,” diluent constraints, and heavy oil realities[26:30] Iraq lessons and a Venezuela “playbook”[31:16] Big picture geopolitics: US/China/Russia/Iran[36:30] Guyana vs Venezuela: geology vs governance[41:40] Economics of the “prize” (heavy barrels, decline, emissions)[47:30] Nat gas + Trinidad LNG + infrastructure constraints[51:40] Q&A: Canada oil sands + Iran blockade risk[56:10] Wrap + AlphaSense CTA📲 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y💡 Webinar by AlphaSense — the AI intelligence platform for finding and synthesizing signal across equity research, filings, transcripts, and expert calls. Sign up for a free trial: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.
• EP023: The Street Is Ahead of Itself on $DIS - park traffic seeing headwinds 12.02.2026 42min

  Doug Garber sits down with Sean Kumar (Humbucker Capital) to break down why Disney may be a value trap in disguise.Despite Disney’s evergreen IP and brand cachet, Kumar believes the street is mispricing the economics of DTC, overestimating ARPU growth, and underestimating park fatigue. He walks through his short framework grounded in bottoms-up segment analysis and consensus vs. internal modeling. 📉 Bearish Bias: Kumar has followed $DIS on the sell side and the buy side. While he respects the brand, he sees it as a value trap with street expectations too high for 2026.📊 Variant View:Street is overly bullish on DTC margin rampParks traffic has peaked, and affordability is challenged. Sell-side still 80% Buy despite 5 years of underperformance💥 Catalysts:Miss on streaming marginsWeak park compsAnalyst downgrades2026 CEO transition risk💰 Valuation Setup:Downside to $90 (10–15x $7 EPS) vs. $130 bull case. Risk/reward skewed negatively.🎯 Street Is Missing: What’s priced in vs. what’s achievable in a post-linear media world.⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Humbucker Origin[06:00] Bias on $DIS[14:00] Iger’s Leadership[20:00] Streaming Unit Economics[27:00] Parks Plateau[34:00] Street Models vs. Reality[46:00] Catalysts & Counterpoints📲 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on Spotify📺Watch on YouTube💡 Powered by AlphaSense: Free accessThis episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.
• EP 022: The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela 25.01.2026 55min

  🎧 The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela | with Venezuelan-American, Danny Pidert Hernández | Pitch The PMAfter the U.S. extracted Maduro, investors scrambled to re-underwrite the LatAm energy map.Doug Garber sits down with Danny Pidert Hernández — hedge fund manager, Venezuelan-American, and boots-on-the-ground LatAm research pro — to break down the real variant play emerging post-Maduro: Colombian energy equities.Danny has spent years mapping the politics, channel checking with petroleum engineers, and tracking who actually controls oil, roadways, and dollars in the region. The result? A high-signal discussion on regime change, risk-reward math, and why names like $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC may be on the verge of a growth re-rate if Colombia flips right in May.🔍 Checklist Angles:Mispricing: Names like $GPRK & $PXT trade like melting ice cubes — priced for no permits, no growth, and political paralysis.Catalyst: Colombia’s May election could end Petro’s anti-fossil policies and reignite fracking + exploration.Variant View: Regime risk is priced in, but upside from production normalization is not. Names could re-rate under a Colombian regime change.On the Ground Evidence: Danny met directly with field ops + engineers during a recent month long field research trip.💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access🧭 CHAPTERS[00:00] – Intro & Danny’s Background Dual citizen, former PM, born in Caracas, trained on GS trading desk. Why he fled Venezuela under Chavez and what he sees now on the ground.[06:55] – Venezuela Today: A Collapsed State GDP -80%, oil down 90%, 8M+ people fled. Why Maduro’s fall is symbolic — and why Diosdado Cabello & Padrino López still hold the real power.[08:39] – What the U.S. Must Do Next Venezuela remains uninvestable. Chevron is the only major still there. Exxon & Total want no part until full government reset and seized asset compensation.[14:49] – Chevron’s Underappreciated Edge Operating at low utilization — could boost production 2x without new capex. What’s holding it back? Sanctions, diluent imports, and deal optics.[17:00] – Who Benefits From Venezuela Reopening? Chevron, Valero, Schlumberger? Yes — but moves may be priced in. Danny walks through which tickers are most levered to LatAm oil upside.[21:44] – Colombia Is the Lateral Trade Petro’s anti-oil regime is ending. May election likely flips government to pro-business. Colombia could be the real winner from Venezuela chaos.[24:21] – Field Research: Colombian Oil Stocks Why $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC are the better growth bet. Danny met directly with engineers and ops teams to verify asset quality and roadmap.[27:27] – Catalysts + Tickers to Watch Election in May is the main clock. Right-wing win unlocks fracking and permits. Stocks still price in regime risk, not recovery.[44:15] – Hair on the Story: What Could Go Wrong? Asset decline curves, protest blockades, political manipulation. What investors need to underwrite before sizing up the trade.📲 Subscribe to the newsletter to see if Doug acted on this episodes pitch: pitchthepm.beehiiv.comThis episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.
• EP 021: Make America skinny again? The oral GLP-1 opportunity at Eli Lilly ($LLY) 15.01.2026 1h 1min

  Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 is going to change how the obesity market can scale.In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber speaks with Sriker Nadipuram, a founding member of Critical Value Asset Management, a long/short equity fund focused on biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Doug and Sriker unpack why oral delivery matters for access, and long-term earnings power. The discussion focuses on how behavioral friction, PBMs, pricing mechanics, and policy all shape adoption, often more than clinical data alone.Topics include:Why obesity drugs are a penetration story, not just an efficacy storyHow PBMs influence which drugs patients actually receiveWhy list prices are misleading, and how direct pricing changes accessWhat’s priced into LLY today, and what may not be👉 Doug shares his full Variant View exclusively in Buy-side Insights, the official PTPM newsletter. Subscribe to get the complete framework.👉 This episode is supported by Carbon Arc, an alternative data platform that gives investors access to real-world transaction and behavioral data to better understand adoption, pricing, and demand. Learn more at https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome🛑 DisclaimerThis conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
• EP 020: Is Open AI in trouble? 23.12.2025 1h 4min

  In this episode, Doug sits down with Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion on the current state of the AI arms race.Key Takeways:OpenAI has over-promised on the $1.4T of commitments to ORCL, CRWV, etc… and likely has to renegotiate and reduce the scope of its ambitions across the AI value chain to focus on their core like ChatGPT. There are big competitors in the LLM race, such as GOOG and META, so OpenAI will need deep pockets that are willing to bet on Altman to keep the story rolling. Raising capital in the private markets is the near-term solution to solve the funding gap…and all is ok at OpenAI as long as the funding keeps coming and the growth keeps beating expectations….not a lot of margin of error here. If it’s a game of who can lose money the longest, I would not want to bet against GOOG or META’’s cash flow machines. META could find discipline and reduce capex, don;t hold your breath as Zuck has a big ego and a big balance sheet. He’s sending a signal to the market that he is going after AGI and has the balance sheet to do it. Stock would be better off if META split into an infrastructure company and an asset light social media company. The stock price driver in the near-term is based on capex and Zuck’s desire to win the LLM race and AGI. Ugh.GOOG is now the consensus winner, low-cost AI provider and now with a SOTP story. Regulatory breakup behind them and now commercializing TPU’s and marginally ahead in the LLM race. If OpenAI starts to monetize its traffic or new position in the TOF, then it could pose a risk to the consensus long GOOG…No signs of that yet. Will check CarbonArc for the latest digital advertising alternative data. The OpenAI contracts with ORCL and CRWV are “known” to be be unattainable and if they are renegotiated, it could potentially be a positive catalyst for those related stocks that have already discounted a negative outcome depending on the new terms as the negative catalyst is past (potential short covering) or the overhang is removed. Disclosure: Not Investment advice. Host andor affiliates are long GOOG and META and short NVDA.📩 Subscribe for more deep-dive conversations and variant views: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508Episode partner:💡 Powered by AlphaSense. For complimentary access to their GenAI and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/
• EP 019: Data Center & Energy Transitions Impact on the Oil & Natural Gas Markets 12.12.2025 1h 8min

  In this Alpha Sense sponsored webinar, we discuss how AI’s power demand is rewriting the energy equation.What started as a “data problem” has become an energy story — and few people have thought more deeply about that intersection than Arjun Murti, former Goldman Partner and author of Super-Spiked.Together, we unpacked:- How data centers consistent energy requirements are changing natural gas markets and the energy transition- Whether oil’s “durable demand” is misunderstood and where we are in the oil cycle- How the energy transition is creating both constraints and investment opportunitiesThis isn’t a conversation you want to miss. Watch on-demand now.*Not investment advice*Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeThis is an Alpha Sense webinar. For a complimentary trial click the link below: https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/
• EP.018 Behind the Curtain: Life Inside Top Hedge Fund Platforms 25.11.2025 53min

  Doug Garber, former Citadel analyst and Millennium Senior PM, joins the Odds On Open podcast to unpack his experience  inside two of the top multi-manager platforms. Up and comer, Ethan Kho, explores the culture inside these two leading alternative asset management firms. We explore what defines success at each firm and what really separates the PMs and analysts who thrive from those who don’t. Doug explains the real contrast between the two giants.Citadel runs like a tightly coordinated multi-strategy machine — centralized, structured, feedback-rich, and built around process.Millennium is a different animal — a decentralized ecosystem of entrepreneurial pods, each built to generate uncorrelated alpha with real autonomy and accountability.We walk through how those environments shape talent: the transparency, the competition, the coaching, and the pressure…all the things that forge (or break) careers.We also break down the fundamentals of long/short equity the way practitioners actually use them:• building variant views through deep equity research• mastering the stock-picking process• balancing market-neutral discipline with conviction-driven ideas• using risk models and factor overlays the right way• and how the best PMs train, challenge, and develop analysts through tight feedback loopsWe dig into:• Citadel vs Millennium: structured discipline vs entrepreneurial autonomy• How sell-side training builds real domain expertise for buy-side analysts• Why deep research and sector mastery are the foundation of durable alpha• Understanding alpha and how top PMs manage idiosyncratic risk inside portfolios• How risk, exposure, and factor awareness drive performance at multi-strats• Culture, competition, and why the environment shapes outcomes more than people think• The analyst–PM relationship and what “credibility” really means• Lessons from blow-ups, post-mortems, and how great teams institutionalize learning• What it actually takes to move from analyst to PM — curiosity, resilience, and ownership• How Citadel teaches risk awareness vs how Millennium develops independent thinkers• Building portfolios that hedge factor noise and isolate true alpha• Why grit and curiosity matter more than pedigree in breaking into top hedge fund seats• Doug’s own journey: ambition, burnout, family, and life after the multi-manager grind• And why he launched Pitch The PM — real industry insight and markets education for the next generation coming up the ladder00:00 Intro00:54 What makes a great fundamental investment process01:43 Why domain knowledge and equity research matter02:42 How sell-side experience transfers to the buy-side04:39 How deep research drives alpha in long/short equity05:43 Grit and curiosity in hedge fund careers07:24 Inside multi-manager hedge fund structures and competition08:22 Citadel vs Millennium — efficiency vs independence11:28 How hedge fund culture shapes collaboration13:55 Working at Citadel vs working at Millennium18:22 Risk management inside top multi-strategy funds19:10 Understanding IDEO and quantitative overlays21:54 Managing factor exposure and market neutral strategies25:18 Risk models across multi-manager hedge funds27:03 Training long-only PMs for market neutral thinking28:03 Teaching IDEO concepts to new PMs31:25 Hiring: domain knowledge vs athlete mindset34:44 Building hedge fund analyst teams and trust36:57 PM–analyst communication and evidence-based decisions42:10 Managing pressure inside hedge fund culture44:53 Lessons from top performers on leadership45:33 Life after multi-manager hedge funds46:02 Founding Westport Alpha and work-life balance49:28 Turning down Citadel and redefining success51:00 Raising kind, grounded kids and values53:08 Closing thoughts and Doug’s Pitch the PMNote: produced by Odds On Open and re-distributed. All publishing rights belong to Odds On Open and may not be redistributed without the consent of them.
• EP.017: Time to take profits in NBIS or is it the next AWS? 05.11.2025 52min

  In this conversation, Doug sits down with Sinan Xin, managing partner at Amber Road, to discuss the “lost art” of international investing and dive deep on Nebius ($NBIS) — a misunderstood name in the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. Sinan has followed the company since its spinout from Yandex and built a position around $25 post-relisting earlier this year. Here he explains why Nebius now represents 10% of his fund.They unpack Nebius’ origins inside “Russia’s Google,” its transformation into a neutral global AI compute provider, and the overlooked value of its 28% stake in ClickHouse. The discussion covers how Nebius differs from peers like CoreWeave, what investors miss about its payback economics, and why Sinan believes the market is overlooking a potential $200 stock hiding in plain sight.1. Action:Maintain a core long in Nebius (NBIS). Keep it as a top-three holding given its asymmetric setup, global customers, and accelerating AI infrastructure growth.2. Understanding:Nebius operates an AI infrastructure-as-a-service platform spun out from Yandex. It builds and rents compute, storage, and networking capacity (like AWS or CoreWeave) and owns 28% of ClickHouse — a fast-growing open-source database. Customers include Tesla, Anthropic, ByteDance, MercadoLibre, and Microsoft.3. Valuation:At ~$125–130, the stock trades near 15x implied earnings power, discounting a 10% ROIC versus management’s 25–40% long-term goal. A four-year payback supports a ~$200/share valuation with ~30% downside to $85. No premium is priced for platform optionality.4. Mispricing:Investors overreact to “Russian risk,” missing that the firm is now based in Western Europe and Israel. Skepticism around GPU depreciation also clouds sentiment. The market overlooks:Global neutrality (can serve U.S., EU, and EM customers)ClickHouse stake worth near the entire EVSoftware-driven margin expansion5. Variant View:The Street views Nebius as a capital-heavy GPU host. Sinan views it as a technology company, not a leasing business. With software heritage and higher-margin products (ClickHouse, ML ops, AI APIs), Nebius should earn AWS-like ROIC, not colocation-style returns.6. Evidence:Global contracts with Microsoft, Anthropic, and TeslaClickHouse stake last valued near $6B; next raise likely $20B+Added U.S.-based execs to scale go-to-market40%+ utilization growth; payback trending to 3 years1,300 engineers from Yandex — proven technical base7. Catalysts:Next ClickHouse funding round and potential monetizationNew hyperscaler or enterprise partnershipsIndex inclusion and rising institutional ownershipDisclosure of improving ROIC and payback metricsRecognition that Nebius is an AI software platform8. Upside:Base case $200/share (~60% upside); bull case $220–250 if ClickHouse valuation rises and incremental capacity earns 25%+ ROIC — assuming no multiple expansion.9. Risks:GPU cost compression, political or regulatory backlash, deployment delays, or overestimation of ClickHouse profitability.10. Alignment:Founders and early engineers hold significant equity. Management is equity-compensated and performance-driven, with a culture of technologists, not financiers.Subscribe for more research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & analysts:https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe
• EP.016: Trick or Treat: The Unfolding RMCF comeback story. 10-to-1 Risk-Reward 30.10.2025 54min

  In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber sits down with Jeff Geygan, CEO of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF), and Carrie Cass, the company’s CFO, to discuss how they’re rebuilding one of America’s most recognizable confectionery brands.The conversation goes far beyond chocolate — it’s a candid look at what real operational transformation looks like inside a small-cap public company.They cover:The steps taken to stabilize operations and rebuild cultureWhy data, ERP, and POS systems were the foundation for changePlans to expand east of the Mississippi and revitalize store growthManaging costs, margins, and franchisee relationships in a higher-rate environmentLessons from taking a “Wall Street to Main Street” approach to leadershipDoug also explores the investment lens — from the company’s long history and competitive set (including Kilwins) to the balancing act between leverage, growth, and execution risk.“This has been more than a turnaround. It’s a transformation. We’re big enough to execute — small enough to move fast.” — Jeff, CEO, RMCF🎧 Listen if you’re interested in:Turnarounds and small-cap operating playbooksHow management teams rebuild trust and cultureFranchise economics and capital disciplineThe realities of running a consumer business through a transformationChapters:(0:00) — Intro: Betting on chocolate(2:35) — RMCF’s footprint and business model(7:01) — Operational reset: from ERP to culture(10:35) — Rebuilding the franchise network(15:47) — Store economics and ROI targets(16:49) — Comparing RMCF and Kilwins valuations(21:41) — Product mix, margins, and brand positioning(29:50) — Managing cocoa price volatility(38:02) — Balance sheet and deleveraging priorities(42:57) — Leadership lessons: culture, curiosity, and execution(48:26) — Closing thoughts: “10x or zero”🔗 LinksThis episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 🛑 DisclaimerThis conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.