The 100 Year Thinkers: Long-Term Compounding in a Short-Term World

Episodi

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  Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Companies, Index Risk and Who Really Wins From AI 09.10.2026 1h 13min

  Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits?On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors.Topics covered:Why selling a genuinely great business can be an investor’s most expensive mistakeHow client behavior and fund constraints influence 10% position limitsChris Davis’s concerns about index concentration, momentum and future IPO incentivesRobert Hagstrom on trimming positions as the margin of safety shrinksThe bull-case pre-mortem: asking what could make selling today a mistakeWhat Chris Davis missed about Costco’s growth and ability to adaptWhy identical earnings growth can produce different shareholder returnsWhether AI spending builds durable pricing power or delivers more value to usersHow customer trust and restraint on margins can strengthen competitive advantagesBalance sheets, circular financing and the humility required to size a positionChris Davis / Davis FundsRobert Hagstrom / EquityCompassChapters:00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary?40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Buffett's Mistakes Had One Cause | The 100 Year Thinkers on the Hardest Part of Holding Forever 06.09.2026 1h 2min

  Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom join Matt Zeigler on 100 Year Thinkers to explore how investors can identify great businesses, hold them through volatility, and let compounding work over decades.Drawing on Mayer's book The Investor's Odyssey, they discuss Warren Buffett's investing philosophy, durable competitive advantages, investor psychology, and the portfolio management decisions that help long-term investors stay the course.Buy the Investor's Odysseyhttps://amzn.to/4gCVMMpChris Mayer on Twitterhttps://x.com/chriswmayerRobert Hagstrom on Twitterhttps://x.com/RobertGHagstromTopics covered:The original Buffett partnership investor who held Berkshire Hathaway for decadesWhy individual investors can have an advantage over professional money managersThe coffee can portfolio and resisting the pressure to tradeHow loss aversion and constant price updates undermine long-term investingHigh returns on capital, reinvestment, and the power of compoundingAssessing whether competitive advantages can survive AI and new competitorsDistinguishing temporary stock declines from deteriorating businessesWhy great investment track records include periods of underperformanceInvisible moats, employee incentives, and lessons from companies that survived 100 yearsPosition sizing, letting winners run, and combining stock picking with index fundsTimestamps:00:00 Chris Mayer's The Investor's Odyssey and the Berkshire buy-and-hold story04:20 Why more investors don't hold great businesses for decades09:44 Resisting financial media and the pressure to act15:59 Loss aversion and protecting yourself from market noise21:12 Compounding returns and how long a competitive advantage lasts26:25 Separating AI disruption fears from business fundamentals30:38 Why outperforming investors still lag the market frequently36:45 Evaluating the business before the management team41:26 Invisible moats in trucking and insurance brokerage48:03 Building a business culture that outlasts its leaders53:05 Position sizing and why stock picking is only half the job58:06 Combining index funds with a patient stock portfolioLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Warren Buffett Published His Whole Playbook | Robert Hagstrom on Why Only One Tenth of 1% Uses It 27.07.2026 1h 7min

  Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett's warning that the market's casino can overwhelm its cathedral.The Warren Buffett Portfolio - 25th Anniversary Editionhttps://amzn.to/3TVXoruRobert Hagstrom on Xhttps://x.com/RobertGHagstromEquity Compasshttps://www.equitycompass.com/Topics coveredWhy Markowitz's definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theoryWhy Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing riskWhat Hagstrom's study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformanceThe difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexingHow benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active managementWhat loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behaviorWhy Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for marketsBuffett's cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculationThe El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop workingWhy options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casinoHow to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earningsWhy permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investingTimestamps00:00 Intro04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets32:28 Buffett's cathedral and casino metaphor37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focused investing01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
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  Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated 26.06.2026 58min

  On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades.The Investor's Odyssey: Resisting the Sirens and Playing the Long Gamehttps://amzn.to/44BMXeJMain topics coveredWhy SpaceX, AI and trillion-dollar IPOs are testing investor disciplineHow Chris Mayer thinks about valuation after watching Google become a huge winnerWhy great businesses can still be terrible investments at the wrong priceThe danger of letting labels like AI, quality and TAM replace real analysisWhy many AI features may not create real customer valueWhat the dot-com bubble can teach investors about AI adoption and shakeoutsWhy investors do not need to be early if a company is truly exceptionalHow to separate AI anecdotes from real financial impactWhy capital allocation and return on invested capital matter more as companies scaleHow to evaluate founder control, governance, incentives and trustWhy the best long-term stocks can still fall 50 percent or more along the wayWhat rational exuberance might look like for long-term investorsTimestamps00:00 Intro: Chris Mayer on AI, SpaceX and long-term investing04:00 SpaceX valuation vs Google and the risk of paying too much08:01 Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work12:05 The AI pause, the dot-com analogy and where real value may emerge16:06 Why investors do not need to be early when a business is real21:00 Becoming a great company versus already being mature25:10 Thinking about TAM, market share and realistic growth expectations29:43 Corporate governance, free float and shareholder rights34:27 How to judge founder trust, incentives and compensation38:57 Employee ownership, culture and building enduring companies43:02 Investor frustration in a lopsided AI-driven market47:02 Why even a perfect stock picker would face brutal drawdowns52:17 The rise of trillion-dollar IPOs and the question of rational exuberance56:29 The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game
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  The Problem With Modern Portfolio Theory | Robert Hagstrom on How Comfort Trumped Returns 29.05.2026 1h 6min

  In this episode of The 100-Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom explains why modern portfolio theory pulled investors away from business analysis and toward portfolio math. In this episode, Hagstrom, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski discuss Markowitz, beta, efficient markets, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, business-driven investing, owner earnings, benchmarks, and why thinking like a business owner changes how investors understand risk.The Warren Buffett Portfolio, 25th Anniversary Editionhttps://amzn.to/4uz8sZ3Topics covered:Why Hagstrom thinks modern portfolio theory changed investing’s objectiveThe difference between volatility, variance and real investment riskHow Benjamin Graham and John Burr Williams framed risk around intrinsic valueWhy beta became the dominant shorthand for riskHow the 1973-74 bear market helped institutionalize modern portfolio theoryWhy Berkshire preserved the business owner’s lensThe “cathedral and casino” distinction between owning businesses and trading stocksOwner earnings, return on invested capital and cost of capitalWhy business owners often make better long-term equity investorsLook-through earnings and building a “mini Berkshire”The difference between making money and beating a benchmarkHow benchmarks can distort investor behaviorWhy knowing yourself and your clients matters in portfolio constructionTimestamps:00:00 Robert Hagstrom on why risk is not volatility00:40 Business-driven investing vs portfolio math02:42 How modern portfolio theory defined risk as variance06:38 Graham’s margin of safety vs Markowitz’s definition of risk09:44 Sharpe, beta and simplifying portfolio risk12:51 Why the 1973-74 bear market helped MPT take over16:20 Why MPT became institutionalized without proving it could beat the market18:53 Buffett, Keynes and concentrated investors violating MPT22:53 Stocks as businesses and Buffett’s cathedral vs casino30:01 Business analysis, owner earnings and return above cost of capital36:41 Look-through earnings and running a mini Berkshire41:34 Making money vs outperforming a benchmark47:30 Why Berkshire’s public and private businesses shaped Buffett50:05 How investors can start applying the Buffett way54:05 Bogumil on how investing theory becomes accepted truth58:09 Why direct ownership creates responsibility and conviction01:00:15 Investor know thyself and the limits of outsourcing caring01:03:35 Finding the right clients for a business-owner investing approach
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  The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate 04.05.2026 1h 16min

  This episode of 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty.Resources DiscussedThe Last Moathttps://microcapclub.com/the-last-moat/Stock Picker by Ian Casselhttps://microcapclub.com/stock-picker/The Investor’s Odyssey by Chris Mayerhttps://www.amazon.com/Investors-Odyssey-Resisting-Sirens-Playing/dp/B0GJ3G6F2SFollow Chris Mayer on Twitterhttps://x.com/chriswmayerFollow Ian Cassel on Twitterhttps://x.com/iancasselTopics CoveredWhy being present with management teams may still be an investor edge in the age of AIHow microcap investing differs from small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap investingWhy talking to management can build conviction but also create biasHow Chris Mayer thinks about vertical market software, mission-critical systems and AI disruptionWhy AI may become table stakes rather than a durable competitive advantageHow small companies can use AI to improve workflows, sales, inventory and productivityWhy many microcaps have short shelf lives and rarely become true long-term compoundersThe role of intelligent fanatics, owner-operators and repeat winners in great investmentsWhy management transitions can create powerful microcap opportunitiesThe difference between being a great analyst and being a great investorWhy execution, position sizing, selling losers and holding winners matter more than hit rateHow Matt and Bogumil apply the lessons to AI, business quality and the limits of small business scalabilityTimestamps00:49 Introducing Chris Mayer, Ian Cassel and 100 Year Thinkers04:59 Ian Cassel’s first management meeting and XM Satellite Radio09:00 Why management meetings deepen understanding but can also mislead14:32 Chris Mayer on the real edge in long-term investing18:40 Mission-critical software, systems of record and AI disruption22:45 How microcap companies are using AI in real businesses27:02 AI as table stakes and when disruption creates opportunity31:29 Why most microcaps have short shelf lives35:51 Finding Tom Brady before the market knows he is Tom Brady40:53 Why owner-operators and intelligent fanatics matter45:03 Second-in-command leaders, repeat winners and chips on shoulders49:27 Analyst vs investor and the missing skills of stock picking54:00 Using data to identify investor strengths, weaknesses and decision errors58:14 Position sizing and letting small positions earn the right to grow01:03:00 Peter Lynch, stocks as businesses and learning to think like an owner01:07:00 AI, human judgment and the limits of automation01:11:00 Why not every small business can become the next Facebook01:15:00 Where to follow Bogumil and the 100 Year Thinkers series
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  46 Stocks Created Half of All Market Wealth | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on the Outliers that Break Base Rates 23.03.2026 1h 11min

  In this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. Applying the work of Michael Mauboussin, the conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction.tives distort investing decisionsTopics covered• Why markets are driven by extreme outcomes and power laws, not averages• The Best & Bessembinder research showing a handful of stocks create most wealth• Base rates vs outliers and when to trust historical probabilities• Why the 100 bagger framework focuses on studying winners, not predicting them• Portfolio construction as a way to capture asymmetric upside• Buffett’s approach to consistency, durability, and long-term operating history• Inside view vs outside view and how narratives distort investing decisions• Why AI may be breaking traditional base rate assumptions in software and tech• The limits of mean reversion and why it can lead investors astray• Return on invested capital and how competition erodes excess returns over time• Identifying durable moats and why most advantages eventually get attacked• Winner-take-all dynamics and how they shape long-term investing outcomes• The twin engines of returns: earnings growth and multiple expansion• Return on incremental capital as a key driver of long-term compounding• Intangible assets and why accounting understates true business value• Amazon as a case study in misunderstood profitability and reinvestment• AI CapEx cycle and why current spending may not be sustainable long term• Why great businesses matter more than great management in long-term investingTimestamps00:00 Why extreme outcomes drive stock market returns01:00 Base rates vs studying 100 baggers03:00 Power laws and why markets are a game of outliers05:00 Just 46 companies created half of all market wealth07:00 Buffett on consistency and long-term operating history10:00 How to think about base rates in AI, energy, and macro cycles12:00 Does AI invalidate historical base rates?15:00 Inside view vs outside view in investment decision making19:00 Buffett’s “certainty at a discount” framework23:00 How often investors should evaluate businesses vs prices29:00 Mean reversion myths and where it breaks down33:00 Return on invested capital and competitive pressure36:00 Moats, winner-take-all markets, and long-term dominance41:00 Twin engines of compounding: growth plus multiple expansion43:00 Return on incremental capital and forecasting future returns47:00 Intangibles and why accounting distorts real business value50:00 Amazon, CapEx cycles, and hidden profitability53:00 AI infrastructure buildout and the future of returns
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  This Hasn’t Happened Since 1999 | The 100 Year Thinkers on Why Safe Stocks Have Become Dangerous 21.02.2026 1h 15min

  In this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski continue their conversation with Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer, diving deeper into general semantics and what it means for investors navigating AI enthusiasm, market volatility, benchmark obsession, and the gamification of markets. From Warren Buffett’s cathedral versus casino metaphor to the risks hiding in so-called “safe” consumer staples stocks, this discussion explores how language, expectations, and mistaken certainty shape investment decisions. If you want to think more clearly about markets, technology, valuation, and your own reactions as an investor, this episode offers a powerful mental framework.Topics CoveredWhat general semantics is and how language influences how investors thinkIFD disease idealism frustration demoralization and how unrealistic expectations impact marketsAI hype, capital spending, and the prisoner’s dilemma facing major tech companiesWarren Buffett’s cathedral versus casino metaphor and what it means for investors todayWhy beating the S and P 500 may not be the right benchmark for successThe gamification of markets, retail trading growth, and the shift from long-term investing to speculationTerminal value risk in software stocks amid AI disruptionWhy low volatility “warm fuzzy” stocks like consumer staples may be more dangerous than they appearExpectations investing, confidence versus overconfidence, and avoiding mistaken certaintyThe map is not the territory and how to avoid confusing models with realityEverything is connected to everything else markets as biological systems rather than mechanical systemsDelayed gratification, compounding, and why wealth is built later in the investment journeyTimestamps00:00 Cathedral versus casino capitalism and the market metaphor02:00 What is general semantics and why it matters for investors03:00 IFD disease unrealistic expectations and AI hype06:40 Outperformance, Bill Miller, and unrealistic return expectations09:00 Are market benchmarks the right way to measure success12:00 What if stock market indexes did not exist14:00 Public versus private markets and myopic loss aversion18:40 Compounding, volatility, and delayed gratification21:00 AI valuations, strategic capital spending, and economic returns24:20 The AI adoption cycle frustration and demoralization30:40 The man in overalls story and delaying reactions33:30 Warren Buffett cathedral versus casino metaphor revisited35:00 Gamification of markets passive flows and species shift in investing39:00 When to sit still versus when to act in volatile markets43:00 Mistaken certainty and the biggest risks in today’s market45:00 The hidden risk in consumer staples and low volatility stocks47:20 Expectations investing confidence versus overconfidence49:40 Everything is connected markets as living systems53:00 What success really means beyond beating an index56:20 The map is not the territory final lessons for investors
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  The Labels That Destroy Returns | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on How Language Misleads Markets 23.01.2026 1h 14min

  When Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer sit down together, the conversation goes far beyond stock picking. Join them, along with Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how investors think, how language shapes decision making, and why many of the debates dominating today’s markets miss the deeper pointDrawing on ideas from general semantics, mental models, and long-term capital compounding, the discussion reframes market concentration, AI, valuation, and risk through a more durable lens built for long-horizon investors.Topics covered in this episodeWhy high valuation multiples are not automatically a sign of overvaluationWhat return on invested capital really tells you about long-term compoundingThe difference between describing a business and understanding the business itselfMarket concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investorsThe idea of time binding and what investors can learn from history without overfitting itMap versus territory and how financial statements can obscure underlying business realityAI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from speculative narrativesWhy many valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizonHow language, labels, and mental shortcuts create overconfidence in investingWhat it takes for a company to compound capital over decades, not yearsTimestamps00:00 Introduction and why valuation multiples alone are misleading02:30 Time binding and how accumulated knowledge shapes investing04:45 Market concentration and what history can and cannot tell us06:30 Index construction, market cap weighting, and benchmark distortions09:55 Map versus territory and the limits of financial statements12:30 History, narratives, and how descriptions shape beliefs17:00 AI narratives, capital spending, and separating signal from noise20:40 Technology cycles, bubbles, and what past revolutions can teach investors24:20 Why language matters in investing and the danger of saying something is29:50 Dating and indexing companies to avoid static thinking34:00 Global markets, changing data sets, and why comparisons break down38:30 Returns on capital, scale, and why today’s winners dominate indexes42:00 The pace of change in technology and market structure47:40 True, false, and indeterminate answers in valuation debates52:00 Capital allocation, balance sheet risk, and surviving volatility56:30 What really matters in 100x investments58:30 Final thoughts and recommended reading
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  The Wall Street Labels That Trap You: Chris Mayer & Robert Hagstrom on How Language Misleads Markets 15.12.2025 1h 12min

  In this episode, Robert Hagstrom , Chris Mayer , Bogumil Baranowski and Matt Zeigler return for a wide-ranging conversation on how great investors really think. Rather than focusing on formulas, factor labels, or short-term market predictions, the discussion explores investing as a discipline grounded in philosophy, language, psychology, and long-term business fundamentals. Drawing on ideas from Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Bill Miller, and thinkers from outside finance, this conversation challenges many of Wall Street’s most common assumptions and offers a deeper framework for making better long-term investment decisions.Topics covered in this episodeWhy value investing has nothing to do with price to earnings or price to book ratiosThe false divide between value and growth investing and why growth is a component of valueHow abstractions and labels distort decision making in marketsGeneral semantics and how language shapes investing mistakesCharlie Munger’s concept of worldly wisdom and the latticework of mental modelsWhy reversion to the mean is a flawed way to think about marketsThe stock market as a complex adaptive system rather than a predictable machineWhy most market forecasts fail and why people still believe themMyopic loss aversion and how frequent evaluation destroys long-term returnsThe importance of time horizon, patience, and long-term compoundingHow great investors think about conviction, uncertainty, and being wrongWhen to hold through difficulty versus when to exit an investmentLessons from Buffett, Munger, and Bill Miller on thinking independentlyTimestamps00:00 Value investing beyond ratios and labels01:00 Introducing Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer02:30 Investing as a subdivision of worldly wisdom04:10 Abstractions, language, and Wall Street thinking07:30 General semantics and investing mistakes09:00 Latticework of mental models and interdisciplinary thinking12:30 Buffett’s rejection of Wall Street jargon18:55 Value versus growth and why the labels fail23:40 Language, meaning, and investment errors27:00 Time horizon, myopic loss aversion, and frequent evaluation31:00 Sideways markets and where returns really come from36:50 Complex adaptive systems and why prediction fails40:00 Spurious correlations and false cause and effect45:00 Forecasting, randomness, and the illusion of certainty48:00 Conviction, expectations, and uncertainty in investing50:00 When to sell and the cost of being wrong54:30 Building an interdisciplinary investing framework
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  The Elusive Search for the Perfect Business | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom 13.11.2025 1h 2min

  This episode of The 100 Year Thinkers brings together Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, and Bogumil Baranowski for a deep conversation on what makes a great business, why long-term investing is so hard, and how the world’s best investors think about mistakes, management, conviction, and the durability of competitive advantages. We explore perfect businesses, the pain of missed opportunities, the behavioral traps that derail long-term compounding, and how to navigate rapid technological change while keeping your investment process grounded.Topics covered:• What defines a perfect business and why so few qualify• The role of capital efficiency, returns on capital, and cash generation• Why omissions are often investors’ most painful mistakes• How to build conviction to hold great companies through drawdowns• The behavioral edge of true long-term investing• Management quality, insider ownership, incentives, and red flags• Why owner earnings and free cash flow matter more than GAAP earnings• The challenge of evaluating fast-changing industries and staying within your circle of competence• How AI, networks, and scale economics reshape competitive moats• Portfolio management lessons, starter positions, and letting winners runTimestamps:00:00 Perfect businesses and long-term economics01:49 Defining the perfect stock03:27 Holding long term through volatility07:30 Behavioral inefficiencies and market structure09:15 Humanizing mistakes and decision making14:28 Errors of omission and painful missed opportunities19:00 What to look for in management24:27 Signals from financial disclosures and actions26:00 Key quantitative metrics for long-term compounders34:04 Owner earnings vs GAAP earnings37:00 Intangible investment and modern cash flow analysis38:50 Circle of competence and fast-changing industries42:00 Large language models, networks, and moats43:52 AI use cases and productivity45:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guests46:25 Episode recap and takeaways
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  The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Next Great Compounders 13.10.2025 58min

  In a world that moves tick by tick and quarter by quarter, The 100-Year Thinkers zooms out to explore what it really means to invest with patience, discipline, and perspective.In this premiere episode, join Matt Zeigler, Bogumil Baranowski, Chris Mayer, and Robert Hagstrom as they discuss market concentration, the dominance of mega-cap stocks, and how investors can think in decades—not days.Together, they explore the evolution of active management, the role of the S&P 500, the challenge of private equity, and how to build portfolios that last.• Concentration and the rise of mega-cap dominance• Equal-weight vs. market-cap-weighted indexes• The role of the S&P 500 and how it shapes investor behavior• Why the Magnificent Seven may not repeat past winners’ mistakes• The differences between today’s tech leaders and the 1999 bubble• The changing nature of private equity and illiquidity premiums• How to define success as an investor beyond beating the index• The importance of focusing on business economics over stock prices• Lessons from Buffett, Bill Miller, and other long-term thinkers00:00 Concentration and portfolio construction04:00 Market-cap dominance and equal vs. cap weighting10:30 Active management, benchmarks, and the S&P 50017:00 Economic realities of the top 10 stocks23:00 Government policy and market intervention26:00 Comparing 2024 to 1999 and lessons from past cycles32:00 Innovation, Russell 2000, and private company growth40:00 Active management and how the S&P wins41:45 The private equity boom and its challenges49:00 Redefining performance and investor goals55:00 The importance of focusing on business economics57:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guestsTopics CoveredTimestamps