Sentinel Minutes

Episod

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  ″🟡 Chinese company delays release of AI model weights, hackers use autonomous agents to compromise Taiwanese agencies, Trump cuts US participation in military exercises with South Korea || Global Risk” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 17.08.2026 21min

  Executive summary Technology and AI: A Chinese open-source AI company is delaying the release of model weights for the first time, citing cyber risks. Anthropic won’t release what it calls “Model 2”. Bernie Sanders says the US Senate could force US companies to pause AI development. Will the US Senate succeed in pausing AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China? Our forecasters think there's a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance, which rises to 19% (12% to 30%) conditional on a treaty. Will a Google DeepMind model be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch's capability index? Forecasters believe there's a 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability. Geopolitics: Trump ordered US participation in joint military exercises with South Korea to be cut. Poland says it thwarted a Russian plot to kill an American citizen in Warsaw. Trump threatened to declare the Strait of Hormuz part of US territory. What is the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027? Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval is 0 to 20, with the [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(02:40) Technology and artificial intelligence(07:48) Geopolitics(07:51) Middle East(08:46) United States(09:13) Europe(12:02) Latin America(12:14) Asia(14:11) Oceania(14:21) Africa(16:13) Economy(16:53) Biorisk(17:59) Climate and Nature --- First published: August 17th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/chinese-company-delays-release-of --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 OpenAI incident involved multi-agent cooperation, US-Iran deal still out of reach, Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza plan || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 10.08.2026 13min

  Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI provided more details about the attack on Hugging Face, revealing that AI agents cooperated and covertly built a message board. Their new Astra model will potentially be the first to be classed as “critical” for cybersecurity capabilities, meaning it has not yet been released to the public. Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 84% (70% to 90%) chance. Will more than 10% of the population of at least one EU country be unable to access banking services for at least 72 hours before August 2027? The team thinks there's a 21% (10% to 40%) probability. Will it be publicly announced by an AI company based in the US or China that one of their systems successfully evaded a shutdown attempt (by the owners, to apply to all instances), before 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 2.4% (0.5% to 10%) chance. Before 2030, will it be publicly announced by an AI company that multiple agents cooperated to carry out unsanctioned activities on, or in a period including, August 11th 2026? Forecasters think there's a 24% [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:36) Technology and artificial intelligence(08:53) Geopolitics(08:56) Middle East(10:24) Europe(11:13) United States(11:52) Biorisk(12:47) Climate and nature --- First published: August 10th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-incident-involved-multi-agent --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 Iran War widens, OpenAI and Anthropic find evidence of more cyber breaches, frontier AI staff sign open letter || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 03.08.2026 20min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: The Iran War widened, with a port in Egypt being hit, Tehran threatening Cyprus and Bulgaria, and Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Hamas said it would give up its heavy weapons if Israel withdraws from Gaza, but Israel said it would not withdraw until Hamas gives up the weapons. Will Iran or its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) strike the territory of Bulgaria or Romania before October 1, 2026 with a ballistic missile, drone, or covert attack that is credibly attributed? Our forecasters think there's a 9% (5% to 15%) chance. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be selected by the President of Israel and successfully form a government after the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026? Our forecasters give this a 47% (30% to 65%) probability. Technology and AI: OpenAI and Anthropic said they found more evidence of their models having been involved in attempted or actual cyber breaches. More than 1 thousand employees of frontier AI labs signed an open letter calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools to “pace” the frontier of automated AI development. In the US [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:27) Geopolitics(02:30) Middle East(05:29) Europe(06:38) Asia(07:04) United States(09:13) North Africa(10:27) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:49) Biorisk(14:53) Economy(19:15) Climate and nature --- First published: August 3rd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-widens-openai-and-anthropic --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 OpenAI model breaches containment, Houthis and Saudis clash, US and Iran pause attacks for over two days || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2026″ by Nuño Sempere 27.07.2026 17min

  Executive summary Technology and AI: A combination of OpenAI models was revealed to be behind the recent cybersecurity breach at Hugging Face (🟡). A bipartisan bill named the AI Kill Switch Act was introduced to the US House of Representatives. Will the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before January 3, 2027? Our forecasters think there's an 18% (12% to 27%) chance. By December 31, 2027, will OpenAI or any of its directors, officers, or employees be arrested, charged, penalized, or subjected to formal regulatory or criminal enforcement action for conduct related to the Hugging Face attack? Our forecasters believe there's a 2.6% (1% to 9%) probability. Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis carried out strikes on each other, while the US and Iran paused fighting for over two days, with Oman attempting to mediate a fresh ceasefire deal. Will the United States and Iran announce a new ceasefire by the end of August? Our forecasters think there's a 60% (40% to 70%) chance. Biorisk: The number of confirmed deaths in the Ebola outbreak reached 1,407, up from 930 last week. How many confirmed deaths will there [...] ---Outline:(00:18) Executive summary(02:11) Technology and artificial intelligence(05:29) Geopolitics(05:32) Middle East(07:11) Europe(09:18) Latin America(09:48) Asia(10:15) Africa(10:25) United States(12:50) Biorisk(14:53) Economy(16:58) Climate and nature --- First published: July 27th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-model-breaches-containment --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 Iran War persists with more US troops killed, Chinese startup releases Kimi K3, Ebola continues to spread || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 20.07.2026 21min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continued its nightly strikes on Iranian territory, while Iran retaliated against Gulf states and against US bases in Jordan and Iraq, killing at least three US servicemembers. Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis ended a four-year truce, and the Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which could disrupt shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before September 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (10% to 45%) chance. Will a new temporary or permanent ceasefire agreement be reached and put into effect between Iran and the US before September 2026? The team believes there's a 53% (21% to 70%) probability. Will the price of Brent crude oil reach $100 per barrel before 2027? Our forecasters believe there's a 68% (60% to 80%) chance. Will the Houthis attempt to seize or sink at least one ship before September 2026? Forecasters think there's a 69% (51% to 77%) chance. Technology and AI: Chinese startup Moonshot AI launched Kimi K3, an open-weight model that approaches frontier models produced by OpenAI and Anthropic in its capabilities. [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:23) Geopolitics(02:26) Middle East(04:34) Europe(07:35) Asia(09:13) United States(12:05) Technology and artificial intelligence(15:01) Biorisk(18:05) Economy(18:39) Climate and nature --- First published: July 20th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-persists-with-more-us-troops --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 US-Iran ceasefire breaks, OpenAI releases GPT-5.6, China and the US consider AI trade restrictions || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur 13.07.2026 15min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman. Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 64% (60% to 68%) probability that this will occur. Between now and the end of the year, will Brent crude reach a price of $100 per barrel again? Forecasters give this a 29% (20% to 34%) chance. Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-5.6 following a US government review process and claimed that it produced a proof of a decades-old mathematical conjecture in under an hour. The US government is considering an executive order that would regulate open-source AIs, while China is mulling export controls on its most advanced models. Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher? We give this a 73% (65% to 80%) chance. Will China restrict foreign usage of its top AI models by March 2027? We’re broadly unsure, at a 45% (22% to 55%) chance. Biorisk: The Ebola outbreak [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(02:30) Geopolitics(02:33) Middle East(04:47) Europe(06:03) United States(08:23) Asia(08:41) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:13) Biorisk --- First published: July 13th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-ceasefire-breaks-openai-releases --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 Anthropic export controls lifted, Russia closed border crossings with some neighbors, OpenAI mulls giving US a 5% stake || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2026″ by Nuño Sempere 06.07.2026 13min

  No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :( Executive summary Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops. Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilization that involves at least one of the following: involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of active-duty reservists to combat zones, or involuntary mobilization of at least 300k male civilians above and beyond the compulsory 12-month draft requirement? We think there's a 41% (15% to 85%) chance. Will at least 100 Russian troops enter Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and/or Estonia in hostility (in total), by July 1, 2027? Irregular forces will count. We think there's a 4% (0.5% to 25%) probability. If so, will NATO forces capture or kill at least 100 Russian troops in one or more of these countries, combined, by July 1, 2027 as reported by ISW? There's forecaster dissent [58% (11% to 90%)] as to this probability. If so, will the following countries all come to the military aid of the invaded country(ies): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, France, and Britain? We think there's a 91% (50% [...] ---Outline:(00:26) Executive summary(03:03) Geopolitics(03:06) Europe(06:22) Middle East(07:09) Asia(07:30) United States(07:57) Africa(08:52) Technology and artificial intelligence(11:16) Biorisk --- First published: July 6th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-export-controls-lifted --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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  ″🟩 US and Iran resumed fighting before renewing ceasefire, Crimea declared state of emergency, access to new OpenAI model restricted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 29.06.2026 15min

  & Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus. Executive summary Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an emergency following supply shortages and power cuts resulting from Ukrainian attacks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 43% (30% to 62%) chance. What about on October 15, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 71% (60% to 80%) chance. Will Ukraine control all of Crimea by the end of 2026? Our forecasters give this a 14% (3% to 75%) probability. Will Putin still be the President of the Russian Federation on July 1, 2027? We think there's a 87% (65% to 94%) chance. Will more than 5,000 Pakistani law enforcement, other security personnel and troops be killed in 2026 within Pakistan? Our forecasters think there's a 3.4% (0.1% to 15%) probability. Technology and AI: Alex Bores, who co-authored one of the world's few pieces of legislation that attempts to mitigate catastrophic risks [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(02:55) Geopolitics(02:58) Middle East(04:46) Europe(06:11) United States(08:08) Asia(08:55) Africa(09:11) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:22) Biorisk(14:28) Nature and climate --- First published: June 29th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-iran-resumed-fighting-before --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 Strait of Hormuz traffic rises, US fears China has access to restricted chip manufacturing machine, Ebola deaths rapidly increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur 22.06.2026 13min

  Ebola is really about to take off. Executive summary Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest attack on Moscow to date, striking an oil refinery, and began EU accession talks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 43% (30% to 60%) probability, but see below for the operationalization of the question. What about on October 15, 2026? Forecasters think there's a 61% (60% to 65%) chance. Will Ukraine become a full member of the European Union before 2030? Our forecasters believe there's a 22% (11% to 45%) probability. Technology and AI: Open-weight models are narrowing the gap with closed-weight frontier models on some benchmarks. The US fears that China has access to a lithography machine used to manufacture chips that is produced exclusively by Dutch company ASML. Will the US government explicitly prevent an AI model trained by a company other than Anthropic from being released to [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(02:43) Geopolitics(02:45) Middle East(04:25) Europe(05:46) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:18) Biorisk(12:32) Nature and climate --- First published: June 22nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-rises-us --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 Trump administration imposes export controls on new Anthropic model, US-Iran peace deal announced, Ebola spreads further || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 15.06.2026 11min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy. Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability. Before August 2026, will a US-Iran peace deal be signed, involving a cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (with or without a toll system)? Our forecasters think there's a 76% (70% to 85%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic's Fable 5 model was released to the general public, before access was revoked for everyone after the US government imposed export controls. The US's Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) was barred from publishing model assessments. Will access to Anthropic's Fable 5 model be restored to the US general public before July 2026? Our forecasters are broadly uncertain, giving this a 64% (50% to 75%) chance. If so, will non-US citizens residing in Europe gain access to it again? Our forecasters are fairly confident about [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(03:28) Geopolitics(03:31) Middle East(04:30) Europe(05:02) Technology and artificial intelligence(08:42) Biorisk(10:19) Economy(10:49) Nature and climate --- First published: June 15th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-imposes-export --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 Iran and Israel exchange fire for first time since April, Trump signs AI executive order, Ebola outbreak grows || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 08.06.2026 13min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania. Before September 2026, will a NATO country invoke Article 4 consultations in response to suspected or proven Russian aggression? Our forecasters think there's a 21% (12% to 40%) chance. Will a peace agreement between the US and Iran, that includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping with or without a toll system, be signed before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 28% (21% to 35%) chance. Technology and AI: Trump signed an executive order that calls on frontier AI labs to provide the US government with early access to their models for pre-deployment testing. Will Anthropic, OpenAI and Google DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump's executive order 14409 through the end of 2026? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 77% (63% to 93%) probability. Biorisk: While the Ebola outbreak continues to grow, hundreds of suspected cases and deaths were removed from official case tallies, with the WHO now reporting 93 confirmed deaths. The New World screwworm has been found [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:23) Geopolitics(02:26) Middle East(03:51) Europe(05:32) The Americas(05:49) Technology and artificial intelligence(08:12) Biorisk(11:37) Economy --- First published: June 8th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-and-israel-exchange-fire-for --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 Russian drone hits Romanian apartment block, Ebola deaths rise at slower pace, Anthropic surpasses OpenAI valuation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 01.06.2026 15min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza. Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action between June 1 and September 1, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (7% to 35%) chance. Biorisk: Reported Ebola deaths continued to rise, though at a slower pace. There are currently between 220 and 300 suspected deaths. Will at least two countries besides the DRC have at least 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Bundibugyo Ebolavirus by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% (20% to 50%) chance. Will there be more than 20,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola in the current outbreak by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 55% (35% to 70%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic surpassed OpenAI's valuation in its latest funding round. What is the chance that Anthropic's valuation will exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 35% (20% to 51%) probability. Economy: Will the hourly Brent crude oil futures [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:11) Geopolitics(02:14) Middle East(03:55) Europe(05:00) Asia-Pacific(05:33) The Americas(05:36) Latin America(05:59) The United States(07:12) Africa(07:25) Technology and artificial intelligence(11:27) Biorisk(14:00) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 1st, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drone-hits-romanian-apartment --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 Renewed US-Iran negotiations, OpenAI and DeepMind models solve Erdos problems, Ebola deaths increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 25.05.2026 16min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work. Will the US carry out a strike on Cuba's territory by the end of July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 34% (20% to 50%) chance. Biorisk: The number of suspected deaths in the current Ebola outbreak has exceeded 200. How many suspected deaths will there be due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of June and by the end of 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 90% confidence intervals are 870 to 18K and 3.5K to 200K respectively. Will there be more than 10 recorded cases of Ebola in the US and Europe by the end of 2026, including imported cases? Our forecasters think there's a 68% (50% to 85%) chance. Technology and AI: Trump held back from signing an executive order encouraging AI labs to have their models reviewed by the US government prior to release. OpenAI said that a general-purpose model has autonomously solved an Erdos problem, while DeepMind said one of its models has solved [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:34) Geopolitics(02:36) Middle East(03:42) Europe(03:56) Asia-Pacific(04:21) The Americas(04:24) Latin America(06:08) The United States(06:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:19) Biorisk(15:24) Economy --- First published: May 25th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/renewed-us-iran-negotiations-openai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟩 US and China discuss AI guardrails, Ebola declared a Public Health Emergency, Trump and Iran trade barbs || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge 18.05.2026 16min

  Executive summary Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models. Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clearly imply reciprocal expectations, commitments, rules, or norms governing AI development, deployment, security, or military use? Our forecasters believe there's a 21% (15% to 35%) probability. Before 2027, will the US publicly support creating or moving toward an international AI governance body with an IAEA-like role that includes China? Our forecasters think there's a 8.7% (5% to 15%) chance. Biorisk: A new Ebola outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. As of June 13, 2026, what will be the cumulative total number of recorded deaths linked to the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak first confirmed in Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in May 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate is 208 (185 to 230). Geopolitics: Donald Trump again warned Iran to agree to a peace deal quickly, and shared an AI-generated image of him pressing a red button with a mushroom cloud in the background. [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:51) Geopolitics(02:53) Middle East(03:43) Europe(04:09) The Americas(04:11) Latin America(07:21) The United States(07:48) Asia-Pacific(08:00) Africa(09:06) Technology and artificial intelligence(11:04) Biorisk(12:56) Economy --- First published: May 18th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 US-Iran stalemate continues, Putin says Ukraine war may come to an end, White House considers AI executive order || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #19/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 11.05.2026 13min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US’ latest peace proposal “totally unacceptable”. Vladimir Putin hinted that the Russia-Ukraine war may be nearing an end. Will Russia and Ukraine end the war with a signed agreement by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 35% (25% to 50%) chance. Technology and AI: The White House is reportedly considering introducing an executive order mandating that the government reviews new AI models before they are released to the public. Will the US Federal Government through executive order or legislation regulate the release of all new AI models from frontier laboratories by November 3rd, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 32% (27% to 40%) probability. Economy: The S&P 500's rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, namely a handful of Big Tech stocks. Will the tech companies Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Apple account for at least 65% of overall growth of the S&P 500 in Q4 of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 33% (15% to 60%) chance. Biorisk: Passengers who were on the cruise ship associated with the hantavirus outbreak are [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:40) Geopolitics(02:43) Middle East(03:35) Europe(04:37) The Americas(04:40) Latin America(05:02) The United States(05:35) Asia-Pacific(06:12) Technology and artificial intelligence(07:46) Economy(09:13) Biorisk(11:44) Nature and climate --- First published: May 11th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-stalemate-continues-putin --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 Iran says it will target US naval vessels, GPT-5.5 similar to Mythos on cyber tasks || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2026″ by Nuño Sempere 04.05.2026 12min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran unveiled a fresh peace proposal, but Trump was not satisfied with it and says that Iran has not paid a big enough price for the war to end yet. The US said it would guide stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran warned it could attack US naval vessels in response. Will Congress put any constraints on the war in Iran by June 1, 2026, using the War Powers Act? Our forecasters think there's a 6% (5% to 7%) chance. Will there be a new conflict in Africa that kills over 100 thousand people before May 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 17% (15% to 30%) chance. Technology and AI: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 was found to have a similar level of performance to Anthropic's Mythos model on the UK AISI's suite of cyber tasks. Unlike Mythos, it has been publicly deployed. Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5, making it unavailable to the general public, before 2027 because of its use in cyberattacks? Our forecasters believe there's a 7% (5% to 8%) chance. Economy: Brent crude oil prices reached a new war-related high, as did gas prices in the US. Outgoing [...] ---Outline:(00:18) Executive summary(02:09) Geopolitics(02:12) Middle East(03:07) The Americas(03:48) The United States(04:58) Europe(05:30) Africa(06:03) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:10) Economy(13:08) Biorisk(13:37) Nature and climate --- First published: May 4th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-says-it-will-target-us-naval --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 US-Iran peace talks called off, unauthorized access to Claude Mythos, shots fired at Trump dinner, El Niño coming || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge 27.04.2026 13min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan. Will direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, with representatives from both nations present in the same country, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's an 80% (75% to 85%) chance. Will the US end its naval blockade of Iranian ports before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 47% (33% to 70%) chance. Will US strikes on Iranian territory, excluding strikes on boats, ships and waterborne drones, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 46% (40% to 55%) probability. Technology and AI: Unauthorized users reportedly gained access to Anthropic's Mythos model. Will Anthropic release a model to the general public that outperforms Mythos Preview on over 50% of examined benchmarks including the words “agentic” and “coding” before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 73% (51% to 90%) chance. Economy: The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Trump's nominee to be Federal Reserve Chair looks set to get a Senate hearing after the Department of Justice dropped its case [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:31) Geopolitics(02:34) Middle East(04:18) Asia(05:26) The Americas(05:29) The United States(06:26) The Rest of the Americas(07:05) Europe(07:17) Economy(08:24) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:59) Nature and climate(12:57) Miscellaneous --- First published: April 27th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-peace-talks-called-off-unauthorized --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere 20.04.2026 16min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends. Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance. Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability. Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance. If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability. If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate. If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Executive summary(03:50) Geopolitics(03:53) Middle East(06:34) The Americas(06:37) The United States(08:55) The Rest of the Americas(09:33) Asia(10:08) Africa(10:23) Economy(12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: April 20th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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  ″🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge 13.04.2026 14min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place. What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance. What is the chance that the IRGC will attack a US Navy vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf before June 1 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 50% (40% to 60%) probability. What is the chance that Trump will no longer be in office (permanently) before December 2026? Forecasters think there's a 6.7% (4% to 16%) chance. Will Israel conduct fewer than 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon during the month of June? Forecasters assign a 65% (45% to 80%) probability to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic announced that it has developed a new model, Claude Mythos, but it considers the model to be sufficiently dangerous that it has limited access to the model to large tech and [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:45) Geopolitics(02:48) Middle East(06:18) Europe(07:45) The Americas(07:48) The United States(09:42) The Rest of the Americas(10:01) Asia(10:14) Economy(11:17) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:54) Nature and climate --- First published: April 13th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-to-blockade-iranian-ports-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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  ″🟡 Trump threatens Iranian power and desalination plants, aviators from downed F-15E rescued, Claude Code leak, updated ASI timelines || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge 06.04.2026 14min

  Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump threatened to bomb power and desalination plants in Iran if they do not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after indicating that he’d be willing to walk away from the war without its reopening earlier in the week. Pakistan submitted a fresh ceasefire proposal to both parties. Will the US and Israel end hostilities against Iran by April 21, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 20% (8% to 42%) probability. Will the US place more than 1,000 troops on the ground in Iran before July 2026? We think there's a 39% (20% to 55%) chance. If so, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate estimate is August 12 2026 (80% CI: May 24 2026 - June 3 2030). If not, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate is May 30 2026 (80% CI: April 20 2026 - Sept 13 2027). Will Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party win the Hungarian parliamentary election? We think there's a 44% (35% to 60%) chance. Technology and AI: The authors of AI 2027 updated their forecasts. Anthropic accidentally leaked the source code to Claude Code. [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive summary(03:36) Geopolitics(03:39) Middle East(08:22) Europe(09:52) The Americas(10:41) Asia(10:55) Economy(11:56) Technology and artificial intelligence(14:26) Biorisk --- First published: April 6th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-iranian-power-and --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.