The Trivium China Podcast

Episod

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  Ep 88 - The Xi-Trump risk nobody's pricing in 25.09.2026 37min

  US President Donald Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday – a rare honor last extended to the Pope by Barack Obama. The atmospherics of the greeting and the rest of Xi’s Washington trip were great. The actual deliverables of the visit were more muted. The one concrete outcome from Xi’s Washington visit was a two-month extension of the Busan trade truce, far short of the six-month floor most observers expected going in.On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivi...
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  Ep 87 - Joerg Wuttke: China told Europe exactly how it would beat us. We didn't listen. 22.09.2026 51min

  Back in 2017, China’s former SASAC chairman told Joerg Wuttke, then president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, precisely which industries China’s overcapacity machine would roll through next: EVs, batteries, solar, wind, basic chemicals. Fast forward a decade, and it happened exactly as he predicted. Joerg’s very blunt take: “China, in essence, is kind enough to tell us when and how they’re going to roll over us.”On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk, along with co-ho...
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  Ep 86 - The weaknesses behind China's booming exports 18.09.2026 30min

  China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years. The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack. But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble.On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits d...
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  Ep 85 - China’s approach to AI in the Global South: selling the razor blades, not the razor 12.09.2026 1j 20min

  Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race. But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one.Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to out innovate US closed-weight models.Instead, the goal for China is to become Android to America's Apple – 10% of the profit, but 90% of the world's users.On this week’s episode of the Trivium China...
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  Ep 84 - Nobody knows where the line is, and that’s the problem 04.09.2026 52min

  The US and China have been quietly testing each other’s limits all summer – and neither side actually knows where the breaking point is. To discuss the nature – and limits – of the fragile US-China economic détente, we are joined this week by Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Evan’s read: The US-China relationship is at an unstable equilibrium, and in for a snapback toward a much more contentious state of...
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  Ep 83 - Beijing's new directive to its tech firms: behave abroad 28.08.2026 27min

  Chinese tech companies keep getting fined and blocked overseas – sometimes unfairly, and sometimes because they’re behaving exactly like they do at home. Beijing just released a plan to fix both problems at once.Our take: “China’s nefarious plan to get its companies to obey overseas laws” is a Foreign Affairs headline just waiting to be written. On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack: Why lumping AI labs,...
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  Ep 82 - Another grim month for the Chinese economy 20.08.2026 37min

  China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.” Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack: How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks eve...
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  Ep 81 - The AI loophole Washington can’t afford to close 17.08.2026 31min

  Chinese companies can’t legally buy the most advanced US-made AI chips, so they’re renting them instead – from data centers in Thailand, Malaysia, and beyond – completely legally. US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.And there’s a reason for that.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Tom Nunlist (Associate Director, Tech Practice, Shanghai) to ...
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  Ep 80 - The China chokepoints nobody's watching 13.08.2026 1j 3min

  When it comes to China’s key nodes of economic leverage, rare earths get all the attention – because they’re the cheapest, easiest lever China has to pull. But the more durable – and future – points of leverage are already hiding in plain sight, in hundreds of intermediate goods most people never think about. Gerard DiPippo, Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, returns to the pod as our first ever two-time guest, joined by Dinny McMahon and Cory Combs, to unpack it.On this episode, host...
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  Ep 79 - Beijing stops playing coy 11.08.2026 33min

  On August 5th, China dropped a new batch of retaliatory economic measures against various US entities. And this time, officials did something they rarely do – naming exactly which US actions they were responding to and why.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack: What exactly landed in MofCom’s four-part policy package – from countersanctions on US biotech and compliance firms to China’...
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  Ep 78 - China's secret weapon isn't subsidies, it's pain tolerance 06.08.2026 1j 9min

  US policymakers are constantly discussing whether America can leapfrog China in key technologies. Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China. On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack: Why China is placing simultaneous bets o...
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  Ep 77 - There’s no such thing as overcapacity, China says 02.08.2026 43min

  Beijing just released its most detailed rebuttal yet to accusations from the West around industrial overcapacity – and it pointedly avoided using the very word that started the fight in the first place. There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack: The five core arguments in MOFCOM’s new position paper on overcapacity, examining which ones hold up and which ones stretch too...
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  Ep 76 - China's economy is hurting, Beijing's answer is patience 31.07.2026 17min

  China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year. In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. Let us know what you think about the new format!On this episod...
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  Ep 75 - DeepSeek Founder Goes Off Script in Leaked Investor Call 27.07.2026 24min

  A leaked, four-hour investor call with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has been spreading like wildfire on the Chinese internet over the past few days – before links to it started disappearing – and Trivium's Bao Linghao joined the pod to give it a Friday-morning stress test. His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.Quick note: This is another one of our shorter, quick-turnaround episodes – where Andrew grabs an analyst for ...
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  Ep 74 - Kimi K3 Was So Good It Freaked Out Two Governments 24.07.2026 39min

  Beijing is moving to restrict how far its own open-source AI models can travel abroad, just as Washington moves to restrict how far they can travel in. Same standoff, squeezing from opposite ends of the pipeline.Quick note: This episode is the first of a new, more frequent style of podcast we're rolling out – shorter, faster-turnaround conversations to react to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. Look for more of these in your feed soon.On this episode, Andrew Polk...
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  Ep 73 - China's Stock Market Rescue: How Big Is Beijing's Bet? 23.07.2026 56min

  China is stepping in to prop up its stock market, quietly opening the door to more outbound investment, and easing off the credit gas – all at once. Coincidence? We don't think so.On this week's Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack: Why the "national team" bought A-shares after last month's selloff, and why this intervention was smaller than last year’sWhat SAFE's move to regularize QDII quota...
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  Ep 72 - China is building a market for data. Why isn’t America? 17.07.2026 1j 5min

  Data has become one of the most important inputs in the modern economy, especially as access to high-quality information increasingly shapes the global race to develop artificial intelligence. But while US policymakers tend to view data primarily through a national security lens, Beijing is pursuing a much broader strategy aimed at unlocking data’s economic value.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to explo...
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  Ep 71 - Is China quietly beginning to deleverage? 10.07.2026 39min

  China’s economy has lost momentum after a surprisingly strong start to the year. But while many analysts are asking why Beijing isn’t doing more to stimulate growth, this week’s Trivium China Podcast explores a different question: why are policymakers deliberately choosing not to?Pod host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine why Beijing may be quietly embarking on its first genuine economy-wide deleveraging effort in years, and what that could m...
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  Ep 70 - China’s growth model hits another reality check 18.06.2026 37min

  China’s economy started 2026 with surprising momentum – but the latest monthly macro data underscores that many of the country’s underlying challenges remain firmly in place. On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to unpack the latest economic data and what it reveals about the increasingly uneven nature of China’s growth story. The two discuss: Why China’s economy is increasingly operating on “two tracks”The continued boom...
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  Ep 69 - Podcast | The “China Shock 2.0” fallacy 14.06.2026 52min

  It’s been a busy few weeks for Chinese diplomacy, with Xi Jinping making a rare trip to North Korea while tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to climb over trade, industrial policy, and the future of Europe’s manufacturing base. On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur and Head of Clean Energy and EV Research Cosimo Ries to unpack these two critically important developments in China’s external relations.Fi...