The Global Gambit

Episod

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  Turkey Could Be Entering the Nuclear Arms Race | Gönül Tol 24.09.2026 39min

  Russia’s war in Ukraine has done more than redraw Europe’s security map. It has exposed the limits of military alliances—and triggered a potentially dangerous chain reaction far beyond the battlefield.For Turkey, the choice is not simply between Vladimir Putin and NATO. Ankara is maintaining its relationship with Moscow, strengthening its position inside the Western alliance and reducing its dependence on Russia, all while seeking greater freedom to act alone. That pursuit of “strategic autonomy” may now extend to the nuclear question.Turkey expert Gönül Tol joins Pyotr Kurzin to explain Erdoğan’s carefully calibrated strategy. They discuss how Ukraine changed Ankara’s relationship with Russia; why Turkey has avoided fully choosing sides; its efforts to diversify its energy supplies; and how the Iran war and declining confidence in American security guarantees are reshaping Turkish thinking.Is Turkey actually preparing to build a nuclear weapon—or merely creating the capacity to keep that option open? And what would its choices mean for NATO, Russia, the Middle East and the future of nuclear proliferation?Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and the author of Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria. Her new report is here: https://mei.edu/publication/turkeys-nuclear-ambitions-in-the-post-iran-war-environment/Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Putin Is Already at War With Europe | General Ben Hodges 14.09.2026 37min

  General Ben Hodges says Russia is already at war with Europe. Not with missiles striking NATO cities, but through drones, sabotage and attacks designed to frighten populations and weaken support for Ukraine. So why are European governments still reluctant to impose meaningful consequences?Hodges joins me to discuss Germany’s far-right breakthrough, NATO’s response to Russian provocations and the growing uncertainty over American support. We also examine how Ukraine’s long-range strikes are turning Russia’s vast territory from a strategic advantage into a vulnerability—and why Putin faces a dangerous choice over mobilisation as winter approaches.Ben Hodges is the former Commanding General of US Army Europe.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Iran and Ukraine Have Changed Everything We Know About War | David Petraeus 10.09.2026 54min

  Iran has been militarily devastated — and yet, six months on, it may be winning. General David Petraeus argues that Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a "weapon of mass disruption" more powerful than the nuclear program the war was meant to destroy.In this conversation, I'm joined by General David Petraeus — former CENTCOM and NATO commander, former CIA Director, and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute — to examine why Iran's strategy may be succeeding despite its military weakness, why Ukraine's drone war represents a genuine revolution that Western militaries have failed to adapt to, and why Petraeus believes the US and UK urgently need revolutionary, not evolutionary, institutional military reform.We also discuss Russia's deepening economic collapse, the vulnerability of manned military platforms in modern warfare, escalating Russian sabotage against NATO states, and why Petraeus believes nuclear escalation from Putin remains unlikely despite the rhetoric.If war has already changed as fundamentally as Petraeus suggests, the deciding question isn't who has the better weapons — it's who adapts to the new war fast enough to survive it.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Secrets, Mysteries, and Spies: A Former CIA Officer on Predicting Russia 19.08.2026 36min

  Description:Intelligence failures make headlines. Intelligence successes rarely do — which is exactly the problem when trying to understand how the West actually predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and what it can and can't tell us about Putin's next move.In this conversation, I'm joined by Charles Finfrock — a former CIA officer with 18 years of experience across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia — to examine how intelligence assessments are actually built. Why there's a critical difference between a "secret" that can be stolen and a "mystery" that even Putin himself may not have resolved, how human sources, satellite imagery, and signals intelligence get fused into a single judgment, and why getting Russia's 2022 invasion right was a genuine intelligence success even if it couldn't prevent the war.We also discuss Russia's escalating willingness to target Western and dual citizens on NATO soil, Ukraine's campaign against Russian commanders and energy infrastructure, and the historical pattern behind strategic surprise — from Stalin's refusal to believe Sorge's warnings to October 7th.If Russia is preparing for another confrontation, the intelligence may already be there. The harder question is whether anyone is willing to believe it.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Trump's Iran War Was Meant to Break the Regime. It Broke America's Middle East Instead 12.08.2026 42min

  Summary Iran's regime survives. The Strait of Hormuz is under threat. Gulf allies are furious. And the United States, further from its goals than when the war began, has spent months exposing the limits of its own power in the process. Jason Campbell, joins The Global Gambit to break down how Trump's Iran war became a self-inflicted collapse of American leverage in the Middle East: the depleted munitions stocks, the abandoned Gulf partners, the diplomatic sidelining on the Strait of Hormuz talks, and why China may be the war's quietest long-term winner.About the guestJason Campbell is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute focusing on US foreign policy, defense strategy, and Middle East security, and spent fifteen years at the RAND Corporation.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Will China Annex Siberia? General H.R. McMaster on the Real Threat to Russia 05.08.2026 46min

  Description:Former US National Security Advisor Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster joins The Global Gambit to examine why China, Russia and Iran have become the defining geopolitical challenge of our time. We discuss Beijing's support for Moscow, the changing character of warfare, NATO's future, Western fatigue over Ukraine, and why China may ultimately be the greatest long-term beneficiary of today's global instability — including whether Beijing's ambitions extend to annexing Russian territory in Siberia, and what the axis means for Taiwan and the wider Indo-Pacific.About the guestLieutenant General H.R. McMaster served as the 26th US National Security Advisor and is one of America's leading military strategists and experts on great-power competition.Timestamps00:00 – Introduction and General McMaster's background01:01 – Initial developments in Ukraine and Middle East tensions02:19 – China, Russia and Iran's strategic partnership03:33 – The evolving character of warfare with drones and space06:19 – Historical parallels: World War I and modern warfare07:31 – Limitations of the Russia-Iran-China axis09:05 – Western fatigue and the Russian war in Ukraine10:28 – China and Russia's role in global power shifts11:30 – Weaknesses of the axis powers and future prospects14:27 – The Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western support17:47 – China's military and economic standing18:47 – NATO's future without US support20:42 – Chinese economic power and global influence36:36 – Russia's future in the context of Chinese expansion38:19 – The outlook for Ukraine and Middle East conflicts41:17 – The long war against Iran and regional stability44:13 – Closing remarks and optimism for democracySubscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  What Everyone Gets Wrong About NATO, Ukraine & European Defence 29.06.2026 32min

  In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin hosts Dr. Bence Nemeth to explore Europe's strategic autonomy, defense capabilities, and the evolving landscape of NATO and EU military cooperation amid the Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical shifts.Bence Nemeth is a Senior Lecturer at the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London, where he primarily teaches British and international military officers at the Defence Academy of the UK.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Real Reason Trump's Iran Deal Feels So Strange | Ian Bremmer 17.06.2026 25min

  Trump says he has secured a major breakthrough with Iran, but is the deal even worse than many are already claiming? And are details taking so long to release?Joining me today is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to discuss the emerging US-Iran agreement, why many analysts remain sceptical, and whether Washington is actually in a weaker position than before the conflict began.We examine the future of the Iran deal, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's foreign policy decision-making, growing divisions within the Middle East, China's expanding influence, and what all of this means for the balance of power in the region and beyond. We also discuss Europe, the G7, Russia, and the increasingly strained relationship between America and its allies.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Something Big is Happening Over Crimea | Mark Kelly 13.06.2026 28min

  Senator Mark Kelly just returned from Odessa. His verdict: Ukraine has effectively shut down the Russian Navy in the Black Sea — Russia can't operate there anymore.Crimea is next.Full conversation with the Senator on what he saw on the ground, the momentum shift, and why Putin is running out of options.Senator Mark Kelly is a retired Navy combat pilot, NASA astronaut, and sitting US Senator for Arizona serving on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Why the Ukraine War Won't End the Way You Think 10.06.2026 36min

  Ukraine just struck Putin's hometown during the St Petersburg Economic Forum. Is this a genuine shift in momentum or another false dawn in a war that keeps defying predictions?Dan Ridler, Senior Analyst for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, joins to cut through the noise. We get into how the EIU actually forecasts war outcomes, why the battlefield probably won't decide this conflict, what the frozen conflict scenario gets wrong, and the one underappreciated path toward peace that most analysts are missing.Plus — how do you verify Russian economic data when Moscow keeps hiding it? And what's the single biggest variable that will determine where this war goes next?Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  America Doesn't Know What It Is Anymore | Tom Nichols 15.05.2026 1j 1min

  America is in a moment of self-inflicted crisis — and the man responsible may not be able to find a way out. Trump has started a war he promised he wouldn't, fractured his own base, and tied his political fate to every price rise and policy failure.In this episode, I speak with Tom Nichols about why Trump's domestic troubles are uniquely of his own making, what the Iran war reveals about the collapse of MAGA's anti-interventionist promise, and whether the Republican Party can survive the contradictions Trump has created. We also explore what all of this means for Ukraine, Russia's future, and American power on the world stage.Tom Nichols is a staff writer at The Atlantic and Professor Emeritus at the U.S. Naval War College.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  What Everyone Gets Wrong About Iran's Negotiating Strategy 12.05.2026 37min

  The ceasefire may have slowed the fighting - but according to former JCPOA adviser Alan Eyre, the underlying dynamics between the United States, Iran, and Israel have barely changed at all.In this conversation, we break down why the US-Iran talks remain stuck at “square one,” why Tehran believes time is on its side, and why the current pause in hostilities could simply be the calm before another round of escalation.Alan Eyre is Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  General Mick Ryan on What Trump's Iran War Tells Us About America’s Future 07.05.2026 21min

  Donald Trump's war with Iran is the reflection of something much bigger, perhaps much worse, happening with the USA, its foreign policy and its standing in the evolving world order. Can the United States still impose political outcomes abroad without triggering wider economic, geopolitical, and strategic blowback?In this part 1 of 2 Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan joins The Global Gambit to break down the dangerous new phase of the US-Iran conflict, why Trump’s strategy may be backfiring, and what this confrontation reveals about the future of American power. From escalation traps and nuclear deterrence to China’s growing advantage and the global economic fallout, this conversation explores why the Iran crisis is about far more than just the Middle East.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Real Hormuz Crisis Is Still Coming 06.05.2026 43min

  The US-Iran ceasefire may still technically be holding — but experts worry and warn that it is already beginning to rot. In this conversation, we break down why Iran is targeting the UAE, why the Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point, and why Trump’s attempt to claim victory may be colliding with economic reality. Alan Eyre - distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, argues that the real test is not rhetoric, press conferences, or military theatre — it is whether ships actually return to Hormuz. If maritime traffic does not resume, the crisis could become far more expensive, far more global, and far harder for Washington to control.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Something Huge is Happening to Global Democracy 15.04.2026 44min

  Global democracy is changing and Hungary’s election may signal more than just a political shift — it could mark the beginning of a broader democratic rebound.In this episode, I speak with Katherine Stewart about whether the world is moving out of a decade-long “democracy recession,” why Orbán’s defeat matters, and what it tells us about the resilience of democratic systems. We also explore the global implications — from Ukraine and Europe to rising political risk and shifting power dynamics worldwide.Katherine Stewart is the Head of Impact Research at Economist Impact, part of The Economist Group.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  What Trump’s Blockade Really Means for the Iran War 13.04.2026 52min

  The collapse of US–Iran negotiations highlights a deeper structural problem: escalation is now outpacing diplomacy. Following a high-level meeting in Islamabad that failed to produce any meaningful breakthrough, the United States has escalated by moving to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—raising serious questions about strategy, sustainability, and the risk of broader regional spillover.In this episode, I speak with Ross Harrison about the strategic logic behind both sides’ actions. We analyse the role of coercive diplomacy, the limits of military pressure as a negotiating tool, and the increasing complexity of the conflict as Iran expands the theatre horizontally through proxies and regional pressure points.We also explore whether the United States has a coherent theory of change, how Iran is leveraging asymmetric tactics to shape outcomes, and why the absence of a clear off-ramp may be the most dangerous factor of all.Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specialising in US foreign policy, Iran, and regional security dynamics.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  How Israel is Threatening Iran and US to Restart War 10.04.2026 50min

  While Trump's fragile ceasefire with Iran continues to hold, Israel is now going after Hezbollah in Lebanon, putting the entire Middle East on edge. We are joined by David Daoud of the FDD to understand why Israel’s escalation in Lebanon was likely once the Iran front quietened, and why Hezbollah remains far harder to uproot than many assume. We discuss the limits of decapitation strategies, Hezbollah’s deep roots in Lebanese Shiite society, the risk of a prolonged Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, and why Washington may see Hezbollah as a core threat without wanting direct US involvement. The conversation also explores the wider geopolitical fallout for Europe, NATO, and Israel’s standing in American politics as the war drags on.David Daoud is Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  What Really Comes Next for Putin’s War in Ukraine 08.04.2026 27min

  Russia’s apparent momentum in Ukraine is misleading. As David Petraeus argues, it reflects adaptation and external support rather than lasting strength, while Ukraine’s innovation has been underestimated.The war is also reshaping how conflicts are fought — with drones, decentralised tactics, and rapid adaptation replacing traditional military dominance. Ultimately, the outcome will depend less on the battlefield and more on Western unity and Europe’s economic backing, which remain decisive.David Petraeus is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and ex-Director of the CIA.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Why the Iran War is Creating Something Even Worse 15.03.2026 35min

  The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected.In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risks—from Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers.If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution.Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Something Doesn't Make Sense in the US-Iran Escalation 26.02.2026 36min

  The United States has deployed one of its largest military buildups in the Middle East in decades — and yet, nothing has happened. So why assemble overwhelming force if conflict was never inevitable?In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph, to unpack the real strategy behind America’s military pressure on Iran. We explore how Donald Trump is using military leverage to force a new nuclear deal, why Iran’s weakened regional position has shifted the balance, and how Tehran is relying on diplomacy, Russia, and China to survive.This is a conversation about coercion, credibility, and why the most powerful military deployments are often designed not to be used — but to reshape the negotiating table.Chapters00:00 The Military Buildup and Its Implications10:01 Iran's Current Position and Internal Dynamics19:57 The Role of External Influences and Regional Dynamics29:42 Future Scenarios: Engagement or Conflict?Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzinFollow The ShowX/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/ Support The ShowPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambitBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambitLeave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.