Excess Returns

Episoade

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  Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson on AI, Private Markets, and the Hidden Risks in Index Funds 16.09.2026 55min

  Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from intern to CEO, why financial advisors still matter, and why starting early remains her most important investing lesson.Franklin Templetonhttps://www.franklintempleton.comTopics covered:Why AI could create new industries and why learning to use it matters for young professionalsHow Franklin Templeton uses AI agents and why investment decisions still require human judgmentBuilding personalized portfolios around retirement, college savings, and other financial goalsHow blockchain, smart contracts, and instant settlement could reduce financial transaction costsTokenized money market funds, digital wallets, and the obstacles to bringing ETFs on-chainWhy companies stay private longer and what investors miss when they only own public stocksPrivate credit, illiquidity, and the trade-offs involved in expanding access to private marketsHow mega IPOs, AI spending, and changing index composition can increase portfolio concentrationBalancing shareholders, employees, and clients while investing in a company's long-term futureThe value of financial advisors, staying invested, and giving compounding time to workTimestamps:00:00 Jenny Johnson's leadership lessons and path from intern to CEO06:41 AI job disruption and lessons from earlier technology revolutions10:42 How young analysts use AI and where personalized investing is heading15:44 Human judgment, AI agents, and the future of asset management20:17 How tokenization could lower costs and expand financial access24:39 Why blockchain adoption is slow and how tokenized ETFs work29:58 Private company growth, investor access, and liquidity trade-offs35:20 Mega IPOs, index concentration, and the risks of AI spending41:23 Franklin Templeton's family legacy and investing for the next generation46:18 Why financial advisors matter and why investors should start early51:32 Jenny's hands-on experiments with AI toolsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Jim Paulsen on the Weakening Economy, Tech Bear Market Risk and the Bull Market Built on Fear 14.09.2026 1h 1min

  Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500.⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors.Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled.Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing.How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship.Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending.How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears.Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks.What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk.How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies.Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation.The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity.Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500.Timestamps:00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income?26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correctionLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  We Asked Fidelity's Ex-President What Made Peter Lynch Great — and Where Private Credit Risk Hides 12.09.2026 1h

  Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks.Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting.Bob Pozen's websitehttps://www.bobpozen.comFollow Bob Pozen on Twitterhttps://x.com/PozenResearch discussed:Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experiencehttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120Rating Without Market Disciplinehttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credithttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958Topics covered:What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's.Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal.Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat.Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups.How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets.Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions.How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans.Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation.Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment.The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity.Timestamps:00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity toolsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones 10.09.2026 1h 5min

  John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio.The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it.High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bondshttps://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/Janus Henderson Investorshttps://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/Topics covered:Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevatedHow the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond marketHow AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cashWhy tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors takeThe three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insuranceHow duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's incomeWhy bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not tradingHow Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative valueWhy AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflationHow to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolioTimestamps:00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity riskLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong 08.09.2026 56min

  Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets.Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy.Buy The Awesome Portfolio Bookhttps://amzn.to/3Tf3of7Topics covered:Why Jared questions putting your entire life savings in the S&P 500How the Awesome Portfolio differs from Harry Browne's Permanent PortfolioIncluding home equity when measuring your overall asset allocationWhy volatility and frequent portfolio checking can lead to costly decisionsThe life hedge: protecting against your job and investments declining togetherWhy Jared disagrees with Charlie Munger about tolerating large drawdownsIndex concentration, changing correlations, and the limits of diversificationThe portfolio's historical backtests, including its losses in 2008 and 2022Annual rebalancing, cash reserves, inflation protection, and cryptocurrencyManaging FOMO and taking practical steps toward a less stressful retirement portfolioTimestamps:00:00 Jared Dillian's case against an all-stock portfolio06:33 The five equal allocations in the Awesome Portfolio11:07 Why "never sell" can become a behavioral trap15:26 The life hedge: when your paycheck and portfolio fall together20:38 Risk-adjusted returns and S&P 500 concentration24:49 Why rising interest rates hurt diversification in 202228:51 Backtested losses in 2008 and 202234:26 Combining home equity, retirement accounts, and savings38:58 Cryptocurrency, portfolio distractions, and FOMO44:31 The Death of Equities and lessons from past crashes48:44 How diversification could have changed Jared's financial crisis53:41 First steps toward reducing portfolio risk before retirementLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Nvidia Is Betting on Its Customers. Gen Z Is Betting on Sports. Will It All End the Same Way? 06.09.2026 55min

  Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models.Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why sports betting is becoming a financial planning issue for Gen Z and wealthy familiesHow overconfidence and confusion between skill and luck encourage speculative behaviorWhy rapid market recoveries may reinforce risk-taking instead of teaching cautionHow recurring gambling losses can quietly undermine savings and wealth accumulationThe risks of placing gambling products alongside investments in brokerage appsLeveraged ETF innovation, hourly resets and competing approaches to investor protectionAI circular financing, payment terms, leases and opaque special purpose vehiclesHow one-time investment gains can distort headline earnings and future growth comparisonsWhy less frequent corporate reporting could favor investors with greater resourcesBaseball, emo music, Nirvana merchandise and what makes a meaningful role modelTimestamps:00:00 Sports betting, ETFs and the gambling economy05:24 Financial planning after crypto and gambling wins10:57 Why slow gambling losses can be harder to recognize16:55 Betting inside brokerage apps and regulatory backlash21:03 Gambling budgets and the next wave of leveraged ETFs25:04 AI financial shenanigans and hyperscaler cash flow29:25 Who benefits from less corporate disclosure?34:24 Discovering new passions in adulthood: Westerns and baseball38:30 Hot Topic, Nirvana sweatpants and cultural gatekeeping43:17 Can band merchandise introduce a new generation to music?47:26 Keith Morris and the search for meaningful role models51:34 Learning from imperfect people without idolizing themLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps 03.09.2026 1h

  Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles.Dan Niles on Xhttps://x.com/DanielTNilesNiles Investment Managementhttps://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.comTopics covered:Why AI can be both a transformational technology and an investment bubbleThe AI metrics Dan watches: token pricing, token growth, cloud revenue and operating marginsWhat the Situational Awareness unwind showed about leverage, forced selling and semiconductor volatilityWhy hyperscaler AI revenue can accelerate even as free cash flow deterioratesHow data center opposition, electricity constraints and politics could slow the AI buildoutWhere value may accrue across the AI stack and why Anthropic and Google could pressure OpenAIWhy China’s memory chip expansion could bring semiconductor cyclicality back faster than investors expectHow AI is reshaping software, including security, systems of record, gaming and usage-based pricingWhy the shift from free cash flow to debt financing matters for AI CapEx, Treasury yields and credit marketsDan’s long-short investment process, Fed outlook, market risk framework and emphasis on downside protectionTimestamps:00:00 Intro04:00 The signals Dan watches to know when the AI bubble is peaking09:12 AI ROI, hyperscaler profits and the problem with negative free cash flow14:19 Why data center politics could become a major risk to AI growth21:28 Why semiconductors are still cyclical and China could change the supply picture25:47 Why smart companies still get bubbles wrong and agentic AI could extend the cycle30:43 Is software the next major casualty of AI disruption?35:04 Why video games may be one of software’s safer AI categories39:23 Can markets absorb the surge in AI debt and equity issuance?45:28 Dan Niles’ long-short investment process and approach to downside protection50:45 Why Dan thinks the Fed could raise rates in September56:38 Why buy-and-hold can fail and downside protection mattersLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  The Fed Credibility Narrative Has Turned | Ben Hunt on AI, the Consumer and Financial Repression 03.09.2026 51min

  Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term rates, shadow banking and insurance risk, the AI CapEx growth engine, and why Hunt believes gold may benefit if policymakers keep trying to suppress the price of money.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠Subscribe on AppleTopics coveredWhy credibility is a teacup and why policy reputation is difficult to repair once it breaksHow the Fed's July rate decision changed the market narrative around inflation credibilityThe Four Horsemen: insurance and shadow banking losses, capital crowding out, the Iran war and oil inflation, and a stretched consumerWhy insurer-funded private credit could become a systemic risk if fraud and losses reach major institutionsHow government borrowing and AI data center financing could push long-term interest rates higherWhy fading fiscal stimulus, depleted savings and higher energy costs leave the consumer vulnerableWhat financial repression means and how the Fed and Treasury could try to cap rates and prevent major lossesWhy AI investment may be the key source of US economic growth if consumer activity stallsHow Perscient tracks narrative regimes, virality and shifts in common knowledge across marketsWhy gold can act as an inverse measure of trust in central banks and how Ben is positioning around the risksTimestamps00:00 Intro: Credibility is a Teacup04:00 How the July Fed decision damaged inflation credibility08:21 The Four Horsemen that could threaten the financial system14:00 Oil inflation, the Iran war and a stretched consumer18:39 What financial repression means23:20 How the Fed and Treasury could try to prevent a systemic crisis28:21 Why AI CapEx may be the only major source of GDP growth35:00 When lost Fed credibility became a confirmed market narrative39:34 Narrative stock versus flow and how bursts can move prices44:00 The return of bearish AI CapEx narratives48:09 Why private credit may be easier to can-kick than the 2008 crisisLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried? 31.08.2026 1h 2min

  This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Topics coveredWhy ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisionsKevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheapWhy seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protectionAahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent targetWhy demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflationHow oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hikeBen Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has respondedThe four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curveBrent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fearNvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stockStanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinkingTimestamps00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced11:55 Why this midterm could be more volatile than the options market expects16:36 Cheap volatility and how election risk could get repriced20:39 Inflation breadth and why the headline numbers miss the bigger problem25:43 Why cooling inflation data may hide persistent demand-driven pressure33:31 Ben Hunt on why the Fed credibility narrative suddenly reversed40:01 Four risks the Fed and Treasury cannot afford to ignore44:43 What the options market says after Jackson Hole49:10 Why Fed events can become an expensive options tax53:14 Why falling volatility could help stocks push toward new highs57:34 Druckenmiller, AI-written investment commentary and authenticity01:01:53 Why writing is part of thinking in an AI worldLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble 29.08.2026 1h 4min

  Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.Kevin Muir on Xhttps://x.com/kevinmuirThe MacroTouristhttps://themacrotourist.comTopics coveredWhy stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yieldsHow Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation TwistHow replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal ReserveWhy the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signalsJim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortizedWhy stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutionsHow daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloffWhy Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signalsWhy platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychologyWhat 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertaintyTimestamps00:00 Intro06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to seeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice 28.08.2026 57min

  Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on AppleTopics covered:Why private equity became a consensus trade and why exits are now cloggedHow leverage and high debt costs threaten private equity returnsWhat publicly traded private equity funds reveal about true volatility and NAV discountsHow private equity shifted from old-economy buyouts into software and healthcare technologyWhy AI may have erased code as a software moat while strengthening other intangible advantagesHow ARR lending helped private credit finance software buyouts and created an obsolescence mismatchWhat AI is doing to hiring, junior roles, productivity and the composition of workWhy the AI CapEx boom may be a crowded, path-dependent overinvestment cycleWhy traditional value metrics work better in Japan than in the intangible-heavy U.S.How Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, buybacks and dividends can unlock value in Japanese small capsHow R&D spend, specialist ownership and short interest can help quantify biotech valueTimestamps:00:00 Intro04:03 Why private equity's debt burden changes the equity math09:24 How private equity became a software momentum trade13:29 Why code may no longer be a durable software moat17:48 How private credit enabled software buyouts through ARR lending23:56 AI productivity, jobs and why displacement is slower than expected30:23 Why the AI CapEx boom may be the market's most crowded risk34:29 Rational overinvestment, leverage and the timing risk in AI38:46 Why consumers may capture more of AI's value than investors44:07 Japan's below-book-value reform and the return of old-school value51:03 Quantifying biotech value with R&D, specialist ownership and short interest55:08 Dan's non-consensus views on private markets and JapanLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Only 2.7% Beat the S&P for 20 Years | Ian Cassel on What Elite Stock Pickers Do Differently 25.08.2026 1h

  Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an active stock picker. They discuss microcap investing, position sizing, active patience, valuation, management quality, portfolio survival, benchmarking against the S&P 500 and how great investors evolve their edge over decades.Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Streethttps://amzn.to/4hU28ImTopics coveredHow an investor's motivations change as ambition gives way to family, legacy and the scarcity of timeHow Ian turned $20,000 into $120,000, then watched it fall to $8,000, and why that early win permanently shaped his risk toleranceIan's four-part survival framework: recession-resistant growth, strong balance sheets, conservative valuation and signs of intelligent fanaticismWhy balance-sheet strength is not just defensive and can let great companies act aggressively when competitors are forced to retreatWhy Ian targets roughly a 25 percent CAGR without relying on multiple expansionThe Judas goat lesson, talking your book on social media and why investors still have to do their own workWhy comparing short-term returns can corrupt an investing process and why Ian measures himself against the S&P 500 over a 10-year horizonThe five core stock-picking skills: identifying, analyzing, buying, selling and holding, plus why selling matters especially in microcapsWhy position sizing should account for initial excitement, and why Ian now starts much smaller than he did earlier in his careerActive patience, expanding your circle of competence and the difference between good, great and GOAT stock pickersWhy temperament evolves with experience, why leverage can destroy otherwise good investing, and why the best investors keep sharpening their edgeWhy Ian is willing to back repeat-winner management teams before every piece of the business is fully in placeTimestamps00:00 Intro06:58 The $20,000 to $120,000 win and 90 percent loss11:02 Ian Cassel's four-part survival framework15:02 Why strong balance sheets create offensive optionality19:03 The Judas goat and social media stock promotion23:18 Why comparison is the enemy for stock pickers29:39 The five core stock-picking skills34:43 Active patience and knowing what you are looking for39:28 Good, great and GOAT stock pickers47:02 How investor temperament evolves over time52:03 Leverage, situational awareness and surviving to compound57:24 Betting on repeat-winner management before the numbers arriveLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  The Rally is Broadening. The Earnings Growth Isn't. Liz Ann Sonders on Which Breaks First 22.08.2026 1h 1min

  Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect.Topics covered:Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional linear cycleThe return of a more temperamental market regime, inflation volatility and the changing correlation between stocks and bondsWhy volatility-based rebalancing may matter more than calendar-based rebalancing and why market leadership is broadeningImmigration, labor shortages and why slower population growth changes how investors should interpret payroll dataFederal deficits, entitlement spending, rising 30-year Treasury yields and why Treasury intervention cannot solve the underlying fundamentalsHow the AI spending boom, imports and hyperscaler capital expenditures are affecting GDP, bond issuance and capital marketsCorporate profits versus labor compensation and why Liz Ann does not see an obvious near-term catalyst for convergenceKevin Warsh, reduced Fed guidance and why less communication could create more market uncertaintyAttitudinal versus behavioral investor sentiment, the vibe session and why sentiment is becoming harder to use as a timing signalThe AI cascade beyond mega-cap tech, the Neural Nine, small caps and why rotation may be the new momentum tradeMargin debt, record household equity exposure and the risk that a future stock market decline feeds back into the economyS&P 500 earnings concentration, sell-side versus buy-side expectations, AI depreciation risk and the return of a major IPO cycleTimestamps:00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the unusual 2026 market and economic cycle05:49 Portfolio construction, diversification and volatility-based rebalancing11:39 Immigration, labor supply and the new payroll breakeven rate17:38 Why long-term Treasury yields are rising and what the Treasury can and cannot fix22:07 Corporate profits versus labor compensation as a share of GDP27:37 Attitudinal versus behavioral sentiment and lessons from 202232:13 The vibe session, consumer confidence and conflicting investor expectations37:14 The Neural Nine, widening stock dispersion and rotation as the new momentum41:21 Margin debt, leveraged speculation and where the real risk may be45:52 S&P 500 earnings growth, concentration and the sell-side versus buy-side gap50:27 Hyperscaler AI capex, debt financing and signals from the corporate bond market55:05 IPOs, FOMO and why investors should be careful about chasing new issues60:05 Where to follow the real Liz Ann Sonders and avoid impersonator scamsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  We Asked Andy Constan What Happens If AI Funding Breaks Before the Thesis — And if Warsh Blinks 20.08.2026 1h

  Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth.Follow First Principles on Spotify⁠⁠Follow First Principles of Apple PodcastsTopics coveredWhy rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock pricesWhy Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisisThe "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset pricesHow the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiumsWhy Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shiftHow Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditionsWhy the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuanceAndy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROIWhy capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycleHow Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projectsThe "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economyWhat Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supplyTimestamps00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stressLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers 18.08.2026 1h 7min

  Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.Bob Robotti on Xhttps://x.com/BobRobottiRobotti & Companyhttps://www.robotti.comTopics coveredHow Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings powerWhy his "grassroots macro" process starts with company-level supply and demandHow AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assetsWhy North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycleWhy persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiplesWhy no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companiesHow passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickersWhy prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacityWhy Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investorWhy he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfoliosThe NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too earlyWhy he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decadeTimestamps00:00 Intro04:02 Grassroots macro and the search for latent earnings power08:37 Why Bob started his own investment firm13:00 How AI creates demand for the physical economy17:59 Why Bob avoids the mega-cap technology companies22:00 Inflation, interest rates and the valuation risk investors may be missing26:07 Why no competitive moat is permanent31:36 How passive investing creates opportunities for stock pickers36:00 Why Bob believes the "fallen" areas of the market can rise again40:06 How bad business conditions create better long-term investments44:39 Active ownership, boards and understanding businesses from the inside48:59 Why Bob is skeptical of modern private equity55:15 The biggest loss of his career: selling a winner too early01:03:32 The one investing lesson Bob would teach everyoneLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious 14.08.2026 1h

  In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsTopics CoveredWhy weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal ReserveLabor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spendingHousing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weaknessHow the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fearsWhy Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yieldsHow higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lagWhy today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990sHow AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linkedWhy the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflationThe widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocationTimestamps00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and techLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble 11.08.2026 1h

  T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio.Topics coveredWhy Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloffWhy hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levelsWhat cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capitalWhy end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demandOpen-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrueWhy chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chainHow equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildoutWhy semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boomWhy AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipesAI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growthHow Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selectionTimestamps00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical?41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking frameworkLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead 08.08.2026 1h 3min

  Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market.Topics coveredWhy the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hikeWhat slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflationHow AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economyWhy the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubbleHow credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities doWhat real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for goldWhy Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term tradeWhy non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunityHow AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilitiesWhy CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. marketWhy diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it mostWhat Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecastsTimestamps00:00 Introduction08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisisLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang 06.08.2026 59min

  Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction.Variant Perceptionhttps://www.variantperception.com/Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETFhttps://etf.variantperception.com/Topics coveredHow first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy dataWhy static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliableHow Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk IndicatorWhy AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilienceHow AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assetsWhy the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycleWhat savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market topsHow potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity marketsWhat capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalersWhy headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflationHow the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlookHow AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment researchHow the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active riskTimestamps00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles?21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical?36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy51:11 How AI is changing investment research55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  The Biggest Leak in Finance | Brent Donnelly on Why You're Probably Too Bearish 04.08.2026 1h 1min

  Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis.Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making.Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Tradershttps://amzn.to/4h9bi3eBrent Donnelly on Xhttps://x.com/donnelly_brentSpectra Marketshttps://www.spectramarkets.comTopics covered:Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading successHow traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video gamesWhy profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy themHow changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick ponyWhy mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good ideaHow trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken processWhy the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gainsWhy rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligenceHow Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation biasThe difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianismWhy avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading careerTimestamps:00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control55:00 Choosing family and health over markets59:00 Why your first thought may not be your ownLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.