Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist

Episoade

• Ep 159: Aaron Cannon Is Building the Leading AI Customer Research Platform; It's About to Upend a $140B Industry 02.07.2026 39min

  Aaron Cannon is applying AI to solve one of the oldest and most important challenges in business: understanding exactly what customers want and need. Traditional consumer surveys often provide low-quality data, while one-on-one interviews are cost-prohibitive and not scalable. But AI unlocks profound new possibilities. How is Aaron using AI to conduct deep, insightful interactions at scale? What happens when organizations have always-on customer understanding? And what are the new opportunities for incorporating real-time feedback into product improvements? Aaron Cannon is the co-founder and CEO of Outset, one of the fastest-growing, agent-led customer research platforms. Try it yourself here and help us improve American Optimist; we'll incorporate the top recommendations! Prior, Aaron was the head of product at Untapped and Triplebyte and worked in senior product roles at Tesla, Pebble, and Monitor Deloitte. He launched Outset in 2022 after seeing an opportunity with large language models to fundamentally change how organizations learn from the people they serve. For this conversation, we're also joined by 8VC Partner Jack Moshkovich, who helped lead our investment in Outset. We begin with Aaron’s path to founding Outset and the inefficiencies he saw in traditional customer research. Next, we explore how Outset’s AI-moderated interviews work in practice — from consumer studies to enterprise deployments at Microsoft, Google, and Uber. Learn how AI-led interviews can actually elicit more honest and in-depth responses than human-led conversations. Then, we dive into the explosive growth of the company — 8X revenue over the past year — and its “forward-deployed researchers" model. Finally, Aaron shares his vision for "self-driving research": AI that doesn’t just gather feedback but helps close the loop by identifying problems and even suggesting fixes — ultimately leading to improved products, experiences, and organizations.00:00 Episode intro01:10 Aaron’s entrepreneurial journey06:00 How does AI-moderated research work?09:25 Why people will talk to AI more than humans13:40 How Outset landed Microsoft, Google & Uber14:55 Are you replacing human jobs?20:56 New possibilities for real-time product improvements23:30 The pros and cons of synthetic research28:00 Insane growth / how Outset 8X’d revenue35:00 How AI is upending a $140B industry This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 158: Nima Ghamsari on Blend's Comeback & the Power of AI Agents and Infinite Workforce 18.06.2026 39min

  Nima Ghamsari was a top talent at Palantir before founding Blend Labs to digitize the mortgage process. Blend became one of Silicon Valley’s hottest SaaS companies until the mortgage industry came to a screeching halt in recent years. Now, the AI wave has Blend poised for a comeback. What will the future of home buying look like? Why is Nima all-in on AI agents? And how can AI supercharge established tech companies with the will and talent to rethink things from scratch?In this episode, we’re joined by the Founder and Head of Blend, Nima Ghamsari. We begin with his parents immigrating from Iran to the U.S. in the 1980s and how Nima made his way to Stanford. He quickly made a name for himself as a talented online poker player — winning millions of dollars and famously showing up to Palantir as a new hire in an Aston Martin. Learn about the lessons Nima brought with him from Palantir into building Blend, and how he took on the ambitious task of bringing the outdated, cumbersome mortgage process online. Next, we dive into Blend’s meteoric rise and fall as the U.S. mortgage industry hit the skids in recent years. Now, Nima believes AI has the company poised for a comeback. Learn about its AI agent, “Autopilot,” and why Blend has the most deployed agents in financial services right now. On this podcast, we talk a lot about new AI-first companies; Blend is a great example of a talented SaaS company embracing AI for a powerful Act II.00:00 Episode intro01:45 Millions playing poker to joining Palantir06:00 Most important lessons from Palantir07:30 Founding Blend / understanding the mortgage industry11:25 How to win over banks and risk-averse customers 15:50 Blend’s meteoric rise and fall 19:00 Going all-in on AI agents / Blend’s Act II 22:55 Is Blend undervalued today? 26:50 Impact of AI on internal operations / increased productivity 32:00 The future of SaaS 36:20 The optimistic case for AIDisclosure: Joe Lonsdale is a principal of Eight Partners VC, LLC (“8VC”), a registered investment adviser whose funds currently hold shares of Blend Labs, Inc. (“Blend”). Joe also has a longstanding personal relationship with Blend and its CEO, having served as an early investor, adviser, and board member. The statements in this episode reflect Joe’s personal views as of the date of recording and may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Nothing in this episode constitutes investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, nor should any statement be understood as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or invest in any 8VC-managed vehicle. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own professional advisers before making any investment decisions. American Optimist is Joe’s personal podcast; the views expressed are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of 8VC or its affiliates. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 157: Scott Nolan on the AI Energy Crisis & America's Nuclear Renaissance 05.06.2026 39min

  In 2010, the U.S. and China were at parity in electricity generation. Today, China boasts triple our capacity. We’re at the vanguard of the AI revolution but falling dangerously behind in energy production. Scott Nolan has identified a key bottleneck in nuclear energy and is at the forefront of the effort to scale nuclear power and help America achieve energy abundance.While studying at Cornell University, Scott landed an internship at Boeing. He quickly jumped to SpaceX as an early employee and worked on the Falcon propulsion systems and Dragon capsule. He later became Partner at Founders Fund, where he focuses on energy, infrastructure, biotech, and other key sectors. In 2024, he founded General Matter to rebuild America’s nuclear enrichment capacity.We begin the episode with Scott’s entrepreneurial journey, the contrast between Boeing and SpaceX, and how to build a culture that prioritizes speed and performance in a highly regulated sector. Next, Scott explains the origins of General Matter and breaks down the science behind creating nuclear fuel. In the 1980s, the U.S. produced 80% of global enriched uranium; today that number is zero. Learn how post-Cold War disarmament destroyed our capacity to the point where we are now reliant on Russia, among others, for enrichment. Scott explains how China surged ahead in electricity generation, and what it will take to jumpstart America’s nuclear renaissance. Finally, we cover exciting new possibilities, including nuclear power in space and on the moon, and what a future of cheap, abundant energy could look like.00:00 Episode intro01:20 Boeing vs SpaceX / lessons on speed & performance05:20 What made SpaceX unique? 09:05 General Matter / how to make nuclear fuel16:45 Disarmament and relying on Russia19:50 The AI energy crisis / falling behind China24:30 Founders Fund and energy investing27:15 How to scale nuclear energy32:00 How to fund the nuclear buildout36:15 Nuclear in space & new possibilities This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 156: Coleman Hughes Takes on America's Most Contentious Debate: the Legacy of Slavery 29.05.2026 49min

  Is America’s national wealth built on slavery? Are disparities between races today attributable to past injustices? Will we ever overcome race politics? These difficult questions are at the heart of Coleman Hughes’ new course at the University of Austin titled “The Legacy of Slavery.”Coleman is one of the clearest voices confronting race-essentialism in America today. He’s the author of The End of Race Politics: Arguments for a Colorblind America, host of the Conversations with Coleman podcast, and a visiting professor at the University of Austin.In this episode, Coleman takes us behind the scenes of his new UATX course, where he examines the two opposing philosophies that emerged from the civil rights era: Dr. King’s colorblind vision and Derrick Bell’s Critical Race Theory. He breaks these down into two camps -- minimalist and maximalist -- and explains how he equips students to weigh the merits of each side. He contrasts the UATX approach, where Thomas Sowell versus Ta-Nehisi Coates takes center stage, to his time at Columbia University and its obsession with racial grievances. Then we dive into a few legacy debates: Is America’s wealth due to slavery? Is the collapse of the two-parent black family a result of past injustice? Finally, Coleman lays out three steps toward an optimistic vision for race in America: get race out of the law (end affirmative action), stop programming children to see race, and foster a growing economy with opportunity for all.00:00 Episode intro 01:40 Teaching the Legacy of Slavery06:20 Coleman’s journey from Columbia to UATX08:30 Dr. King vs Derrick Bell11:20 Racial disparities by IQ and salary13:00 Thomas Sowell & the Real History of Slavery19:00 America’s Founding hypocrisy24:00 Will the Left cancel Dr. King?26:20 Understanding the 1619 Project30:25 Breakdown of the black family37:20 Is America wealthy because of slavery?43:50 Are you worried about woke AI?45:40 Three solutions for racial progress This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 155: Eric Scott on the Biggest Missed Opportunity in Venture Investing 22.05.2026 30min

  As a former Principal at Founders Fund, Founding Partner at SciFi VC, and 8VC advisor, Eric Scott has invested in and helped build numerous technology leaders. He’s launching his new fund, Overlook Capital, where he sees missed opportunities in the market. How has venture investing evolved in recent years? Where does he see the dislocations? And how will AI change the game going forward?After graduating from Claremont McKenna College, Eric emailed his way into Max Levchin’s network, becoming an early employee at HVF Labs where he learned to invest and build companies. He later spun out SciFi VC as its Founding Partner, before landing as a Principal at Founders Fund. He was an early investor in Anduril, Crusoe Energy, among others, and a senior advisor at 8VC where he helped us launch Harbor Health.We begin our conversation with Eric’s journey — from persuading Max Levchin to hire him as a technical assistant to investing at HVF and launching SciFi VC. Next, we dive into the state of venture today. Learn why Eric believes that larger and larger fund sizes are concentrating capital into the hottest AI bets, creating real inefficiencies just below the top tier. He lays out the thesis behind his new firm and where he sees missed opportunities. Finally, Eric shares his optimistic vision for the years ahead and why he believes this is one of the best times in a generation to start and build important companies.00:00 Episode intro01:30 Meeting Max Levchin and learning to build 06:30 Launching SciFi VC & investment lessons12:05 How VC is changing 13:40 Biggest missed opportunity in venture 16:15 Enormous dislocations in the market21:30 How AI is changing the game24:00 Overlook Capital27:50 Optimism for the future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 154: Jacob Helberg on Pax Silica & the New Global Order in the AI Age 19.05.2026 33min

  Jacob Helberg is leading the State Department's efforts to secure critical supply chains and win the global AI race. How is the U.S. shifting from dependency on China to building new partnerships around energy, minerals, and infrastructure? Which economies will grow fastest in the AI era? Who will be left behind? And how will this impact geopolitics? We discuss these timely topics with Jacob, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. A tech policy veteran who worked at Google and Palantir before serving on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Jacob was confirmed last fall to help execute the administration’s economic statecraft agenda. He's the author of "The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power."We begin our conversation with Jacob’s mission at the State Department and the launch of Pax Silica: a new US-led economic security coalition to secure supply chains and help America dominate in AI innovation. We dive into Jacob's recent deal in the Philippines to build an AI-native industrial hub, and explore the contrast with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Next, Jacob makes the bull case for AI drawing on lessons from history: the PC revolution displaced 3.5 million jobs, he explains, but created 19 million more with the advent of the software industry! Finally, he explains why principled, positive-sum diplomacy is delivering results where old models failed, and how the AI revolution is transforming the global balance of power.00:00 Episode intro02:30 Historic deal with Philippines 05:25 Jacob's background07:30 Why is Europe falling behind?13:00 The asymmetric power of tech15:35 Jacob responds to AI doomers & skeptics 19:15 Global Competition: China, AI, and Diverging Growth21:45 What is Pax Silica? 23:45 New Global Order in AI age29:30 Is China pushing back? 31:45 Optimism for the future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 153: Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar on Heretics, AI Weapons, and Rebuilding the Arsenal of Democracy 08.05.2026 44min

  Shyam Sankar is one of my favorite American innovators. As CTO of Palantir, he's been a key leader for over 20 years and built much of what the company stands for. He's also a patriot, and recently commissioned as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve. His new best-selling book "Mobilize" lays out the crisis of the American industrial base, how to revive what made us a global superpower, and what it will take to prevent the next great power conflict. Shyam's father was raised in a mud hut in India. He and his family relocated to Nigeria but fled to the United States after armed robbers nearly murdered them. Shyam joined Palantir as the 13th employee, where he helped shape its unique culture, develop key business strategies, and scale Palantir into a $300+ billion global software giant. In 2025, he was commissioned as a lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve's new Detachment 201: Executive Innovation Corps, and earlier this year, he released "Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III."We begin our conversation with Shyam’s extraordinary journey to the U.S. and what this country means to him. Next, we reminisce about the early days at Palantir and what made the culture unique, from his famous Shyam-isms to living in the office for a month straight to earn free BBQ Fridays. Learn how Shyam coined the term "Forward Deployed Engineers" and proved that the best software is built shoulder-to-shoulder with the customer. Then we dive into his new book and the dangerous atrophy of America’s defense industrial base. Shyam reveals that the U.S. expended 10 years of production in 10 weeks of conflict, and explains how we can once again become the arsenal of democracy. We also discuss the culture at the Pentagon and why some heretics must be protected at all costs. Finally, we explore the clash between leading AI researchers and the Department of War, and how to bridge the gap between Silicon Valley and D.C. and secure the next great American century.00:00 Episode intro01:45 Mud hut in India to life in America05:25 Employee #13 at Palantir 09:45 How Shyam created Forward Deployed Engineers 13:05 What are Shyam-isms? 14:55 Business discipline & learning to say no 19:20 The crisis of the American industrial base24:00 Some heretics must be protected 29:00 The factory is the weapon34:00 Magical AI weapons 43:00 Optimism for America's future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 152: Ben Black Runs America's $200B Foreign Investment Fund; Here's His Plan to Counter China & Rebuild American Influence 30.04.2026 38min

  Ben Black is the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Backed by a $205 billion budget, his mandate is to invest in U.S. strategic interests, build new markets, and deliver real returns for taxpayers. What projects is the DFC prioritizing? How is he countering China's trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative? And how is the Trump administration shifting from a paternalistic view of foreign aid toward investing with accountability and an expectation of returns? A history major at the University of Pennsylvania, Ben began his career in finance at Goldman Sachs before earning a JD and MBA at Harvard. He worked in private equity at Apollo Global Management before founding the investment firm Fortinbras. Last fall, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as CEO of the DFC. His drive to serve was shaped by his grandfather, a WWII tail gunner in the Aleutians, and by watching his father build Apollo into a global powerhouse.We begin our conversation with Ben’s entrepreneurial journey before diving into the history of U.S. foreign aid. Learn how the U.S. regressed from the Marshall Plan, which rebuilt Europe and fostered investment in America, to promoting a culture of waste and dependency in foreign aid — and how the Trump administration is reversing course (check out our essay from January 2025 on these issues). Next, Ben lays out the flaws in China's extractive Belt and Road model and explains how the DFC is developing trusted partners, promoting free-market principles, and investing strategically. From maritime insurance in the Strait of Hormuz to rare earth mining, Ben reveals some of the DFC's recent wins and where he sees new long-term partnerships in South America and Asia. Instead of showering NGOs with taxpayer dollars and creating charity cases abroad, the Trump administration is restoring discipline and accountability — and Ben is a key leader in executing this vision and generating returns for the American people.00:00 Episode intro01:25 Ben’s path to DFC08:30 $205 billion to invest abroad10:00 Rethinking foreign aid13:00 From Marshall Plan to waste and fraud18:50 The Trump administration’s new approach21:50 Countering China’s Belt & Road Initiative28:00 Post-WWII order is changing / new opportunities33:10 Maritime insurance and Strait of Hormuz37:00 Optimism for America’s future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 151: The Myth of Michael Milken with Richard Sandler 24.04.2026 41min

  Michael Milken revolutionized American finance and democratized access to capital for thousands of companies that Wall Street had previously written off. Yet he was unjustly attacked in the 1980s in one of the most controversial prosecutions in U.S. history. As one of Michael’s key defense lawyers, Richard Sandler sets the record straight in his new book: Witness to a Prosecution: The Myth of Michael Milken. How did Michael transform capital markets through high-yield bonds? Why was he unfairly targeted? Why did he ultimately agree to a plea deal? And what are the lessons about government power that everyone should learn? We dive into these topics in this week’s episode with Richard Sandler, Partner at the law firm of Maron & Sandler and Executive Vice President and Trustee of the Milken Family Foundation. Richard and Lowell Milken, Michael’s younger brother, met in first grade while growing up in Los Angeles. After practicing law with his father, Richard joined Michael and Lowell’s firm -- Drexel Burnham Lambert -- to help the high-yield bond team. He saw firsthand the entire saga: the explosive rise and fall of Drexel, the unprecedented investigation, and ultimately, President Trump’s pardon of Michael in 2020.We begin with Michael’s breakthrough in high-yield bonds. Learn how he almost single-handedly transformed the “junk bond” market from $70 billion to $700 billion in a decade, and helped finance the growth of great American entrepreneurs and companies — Ted Turner, Steve Wynn, MCI Communications, among others. Next, Richard walks us through the investigation: the unprecedented use of RICO against Drexel, the targeting of Lowell as a “hostage,” and the novel charges Michael ultimately pled to (none of which had been prosecuted before or since). Finally, we explore the deeper lessons about prosecutorial power, media narratives, and Michael’s extraordinary resilience. He has pushed forward medicine, science, and education in myriad ways, while inspiring many of our great leaders today.00:00 Episode intro01:35 Richard’s career & Michael Milken’s legacy06:25 Why write this book? 08:00 How Michael Milken transformed finance 14:00 Why did they go after Drexel & Michael? 19:30 Using RICO to bring down Drexel 22:30 Prosecutorial abuse & the power of government26:30 Why did Michael agree to a plea deal? 33:25 Trump grants Michael a full pardon35:00 Lessons on government power, media influence & Michael’s resilience This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 150: How AI Is Transforming Diligence, Decision-Making & the Future of Investing with John Melas-Kyriazi 17.04.2026 34min

  John Melas-Kyriazi is the co-founder and CEO of Standard Metrics, which powers portfolio management for more than 150 venture capital firms and 10,000 companies. He runs a high-growth SaaS company at the leading edge of the AI wave. How is AI transforming how investors source and diligence deals? How are agents parsing pitch decks, prepping board meetings, and building powerful new workflows? And as competitive advantages shift, what are the new moats for SaaS companies in the AI age? We discuss these and other timely topics with John. At an early age, he fell in love with science fiction and built vacuum-tube amplifiers in his parents' basement, before studying physics and materials science at Stanford. There he became a research scientist until pivoting to investing, first at StartX and later Spark Capital. Born out of firsthand experience, he co-founded Standard Metrics alongside the 8VC Build team to create a better solution for portfolio management software. We begin our conversation with John’s path from academia to investor and founder. Next, we explore how Standard Metrics centralizes data, improves portfolio intelligence, and powers smarter investment decisions. Then we dive into the new possibilities with AI, from technical diligence copilots and investment stress-testing to new workflows and internal AI analysts. In an era of new agentic tools and shifting competitive advantages, we discuss new moats for existing software companies built around network effects, data, and more. The world of finance is changing quickly; John offers a unique perspective on the AI wave and how top investors are leveraging new workflows to get ahead.00:00 Episode intro 02:10 Academia to investor and founder 08:00 The pain point that led to building Standard Metrics 12:10 How AI is transforming venture capital14:20 AI as a technical copilot17:10 AI Analyst vs human in the loop19:20 Parsing pitch decks and new AI tools 23:10 How AI search is changing marketing 28:30 New capabilities and workflows 33:47 How quickly is everything changing? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 149: Will Fry on the Small Business Succession Crisis & New Opportunities in the AI Age 09.04.2026 34min

  In the coming years, over two million small businesses will change hands or close their doors as Baby Boomers retire. Will Fry, Founder and CEO of American Operator, is on a mission to save Main Street and seize this opportunity for the next generation of local owners and operators. How does the operate-to-own model work? Should talented young people think twice about traditional careers and pursue ownership opportunities instead? And why is Will especially bullish on small business in the AI age?Raised in a small town in North Carolina, Will developed an early love for building, starting with electronic kits and later unique apps. After studying at Penn and Wharton, a trip home revealed the looming crisis: millions of local businesses that lack succession plans. This sparked the creation of American Operator, which pairs retiring owners with high-agency operators, along with the capital and know-how to build a thriving business.We begin with Will’s entrepreneurial journey and the coming “Silver Tsunami.” Will explains why only 48% of small business owners have succession plans and what this means for the next generation of owner-operators. He highlights stories like Greenway Painting in Jackson, Wyoming, and how American Operator is helping create millionaires on Main Street while keeping local business local. Next, we explore the historical and cultural importance of small business in America, dating back to John Hancock’s import-export firm and Ben Franklin’s printing shop. Looking ahead, we examine AI’s impact on small businesses. Learn why Will believes SMBs are a great AI hedge, while also having unique upside as new AI tools make small cohorts of people dramatically more productive. Finally, Will explains the operate-to-own model and how American Operator aligns incentives so that original owners become valuable advisors, new operators can earn their way into majority ownership, and American Operator remains a committed partner over the long run.00:00 Episode intro01:25 Will’s entrepreneurial journey04:15 The small business succession crisis06:40 American Operator’s approach vs. private equity11:55 Does AI mean boom or bust for small business?15:55 Forget law school? Buy a small business instead?21:20 AI use cases for small business23:00 Why many business owners shut down instead of sell26:00 How the operate-to-own model works33:50 Optimism for Main Street America This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 148: JoeBen Bevirt, Founder & CEO of Joby Aviation — Flying Cars Have Arrived 03.04.2026 38min

  Last year, JoeBen Bevirt joined the show to discuss the vision behind Joby Aviation and bringing air taxis to life. Now, he's back to talk execution and getting to market this year! What states will be first to offer Joby rides — and when? How is Joby ramping up manufacturing to meet the moment? And how is AI making Joby’s top scientists over 10X more productive and accelerating decades of advancement into the next few years?" As Founder and CEO of Joby Aviation, JoeBen has spent more than a decade building Joby into the leader in electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, and we begin with its unique design: 100 times quieter than a helicopter and dramatically safer to operate with layered redundancy across six propulsion stations, dual motors, and dual battery packs. Next, we talk about the significance of Joby's partnership with Toyota, how they're ramping up manufacturing, and why they're massively expanding their Ohio facilities. Then, JoeBen lays out their regulatory progress, from achieving their first FAA-conforming aircraft to the White House's historic pilot program that will bring air taxis to 12 states starting this year, including Texas!Additionally, we explore the coming age of autonomy, why Joby is partnering with NVIDIA to build out its autonomous flight stack, and how AI is transforming everything from aerodynamics research to back-office tasks. You'll also learn about Joby's breakthrough hydrogen-electric program — unlocking long-range commercial and defense applications — and why staying ahead of China is critical for American leadership in this next age of flight. Finally, JoeBen shares his grand vision for an electric era of aviation and a future without traffic — something we can all get behind.00:00 Episode Intro 01:50 What sets Joby aircraft apart 04:50 Key partnerships with Toyota & NVIDIA06:50 Closing in on FAA Certification 08:00 Air Taxis coming to 12 states this year! 13:35 Autonomous flight is the future20:00 Hydrogen aircraft for the Pentagon 24:10 Why AI is a game changer 28:15 Expansion in Ohio and Global Competition with China 34:40 Addressing critics / future vision 35:50 Making air travel ubiquitous This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 147: Scott Wu & Russell Kaplan on the New Era of Software Abundance 27.03.2026 53min

  Scott Wu and Russell Kaplan, co-founders of Cognition, are leading one of the fastest-growing, talent-dense AI companies. Their mission: make expert software engineering ubiquitous. What does a world of software abundance look like? How is Cognition delivering massive productivity gains inside some of the largest companies and organizations? And can AI finally modernize the broken, $100 billion government IT systems? We discuss these and other timely topics with Scott and Russell. Scott was a three-time gold medalist at the International Olympiad in Informatics and world champion at age 17. After high school, we hired him at Addepar, where he became a top software engineer. Russell began his career as a machine learning engineer on Tesla’s Autopilot team before selling his video data company, Helia, to Scale AI. In 2023, Scott and Russell co-founded Cognition, and a year later, they shocked the technology world with the release of Devin, the first AI software agent. We begin our conversation by discussing the incredible collection of young talent at Cognition, and why the next generation has new advantages in the AI era. Next, we catch up on Cognition’s explosive growth: Devin usage in the first few months of 2026 already surpassed all of 2025. Scott reveals that Cognition engineers no longer write code and explains how they’re able to test and ship new products faster than ever before. Then, we dive into the new era of software abundance and what it means if everyone has access to high-quality engineering, from modernizing large legacy enterprises to supercharging small businesses. We also discuss Cognition’s recent foray into government services and its work to modernize complex outdated systems. Finally, we explore the talent flywheel that has drawn so many former founders to Cognition, and why Scott and Russell believe we’re moving from Minecraft “survival mode” to “creative mode” — where the only limit to building is imagination itself.00:00 Episode intro01:35 Why technical talent & execution matters in AI06:10 Do young people have an edge in the AI era? 08:26 Cognition’s rapid growth 11:55 The new era of software abundance14:30 Cognition engineers don’t type code anymore19:20 “Never sleep while Devin is idling” 21:25 The case for AI disinflation23:50 How Devin generates 12X productivity gains28:25 Cognition for government / taking on complex, broken systems36:40 The AI race / competition with Anthropic39:00 Forward deployed engineers?43:40 How fast are LLMs improving? 47:10 AI-led small business explosion This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 146: Jake Paul & Geoff Woo on Building Anti Fund, the Future of the Creator Economy & How to Change the Culture 19.03.2026 35min

  Jake Paul is a social media influencer-turned-entrepreneur and boxer. He’s not only one of the most popular figures on the planet among Gen Z, but also an outspoken patriot, capitalist, and builder. Together, he and Geoff Woo founded Anti Fund and have backed OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, among others. Why did Jake decide to speak out on politics? How do we win over the next generation? And how is AI changing the culture, from new social media platforms to prediction markets and the revival of in-person events?We recorded this conversation the day after Jake appeared with President Trump at a Kentucky rally. He explains why he’s speaking out on politics, even if it costs him financially, and why authenticity is key to cultural influence. Next, we explore the origins of Anti Fund, and how Jake and Geoff had the conviction to back Anduril before defense tech was in vogue. They also invested in OpenAI and were instrumental in rolling out Sora; learn about the strategy behind the launch and the challenges around AI slop and identity authentication. Additionally, Jake is the co-founder of Betr, and we discuss its recent partnership with Polymarket, what’s next for prediction markets, and how to build guardrails for customers. Finally, we explore Jake’s success in pioneering the creator economy and building consumer brands. In the 1960s and 70s, most kids aspired to become astronauts. Today, they want to be content creators, in part because of Jake’s influence. We conclude with Jake’s advice for young people in the AI era, and how we can persuade the next generation to love their country and embrace a builder mindset.00:00 Episode intro02:20 On stage with President Trump06:00 Attention is the most valuable currency08:00 The origins of Anti Fund and backing OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, and others09:10 Betr + Polymarket and the future of prediction markets 14:58 Launching Sora with OpenAI 16:14 Are you worried about AI slop? 19:10 How AI is changing culture; revival of in-person events 21:20 Who should become a creator?24:30 Fighters as cultural icons 31:30 How to win the culture This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 145: SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler on Exposing Billions in Fraud & What AI Means for Small Business 13.03.2026 31min

  Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler is playing a pivotal role in our nation on two fronts: supporting the next generation of small business owners, while exposing and combating billions of dollars in fraud. How is AI impacting small businesses? Could this be a golden age for Main Street America? What's the staggering scale of fraud she's uncovering? And how is she working with Palantir and other top talent to ensure it never happens again?We discuss these timely topics and more with Administrator Loeffler. Growing up on a farm in rural Illinois, Kelly raised cattle and was exposed to the challenges of small business early on. She became the first in her family to graduate college and built a distinguished career in financial services at Intercontinental Exchange. In 2018, she became the founding CEO and first employee of the fintech startup, Bakkt, which brought institutional infrastructure to crypto. Kelly was appointed to serve in the U.S. Senate in 2020 and later confirmed as Administrator of the Small Business Administration in February 2025.We begin our conversation with Kelly's entrepreneurial journey, before diving into her mission at the SBA. Her leadership comes at a pivotal juncture: a $10 trillion generational wealth transfer amid a technological revolution. As Baby Boomers retire and new AI tools emerge, Kelly believes young talent should think twice about traditional pathways and consider small business ownership instead. She lays out the administration's agenda, including expanding SBA loans for reindustrialization and bolstering the manufacturing jobs of the future. Next, we dive into her other core responsibility: exposing fraud. Learn how the SBA uncovered over $400 million of COVID-era fraud in Minnesota, $9 billion in California, and they're just getting started. She's also investigating 8(a) minority contracting — a program for disadvantaged communities hijacked by the Biden administration for race-based contracting and grift. The SBA is bringing in top talent and technology, including Palantir, to expose the fraud, revamp the programs, and protect taxpayers.00:00 Episode intro01:40 Farming to finance04:46 Building Bakkt & institutional infrastructure for crypto09:00 AI & the future of small business13:58 How to supercharge manufacturing in America16:15 Exposing billions in fraud18:50 The scandal of minority contracting20:25 Using Palantir to investigate fraud27:15 The NGO grift scheme29:50 Optimism for the future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 144: Jared Isaacman's Bold Vision for Moon Bases, Nuclear Power in Space, and Returning NASA to Greatness 03.03.2026 32min

  As a teenager, Jared Isaacman built a billion-dollar payments company. He then pursued aviation, acquiring the world's largest private air force and creating “Top Gun as a service,” before commanding the first all-civilian spaceflight. Now, he's taking on his greatest challenge: returning NASA to greatness. Can we beat China back to the Moon? Will we reach Mars within a decade? And how close are we to making nuclear propulsion, space colonies, and other sci-fi futures a reality? We discuss all this and more with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. We begin with his upbringing and the origins of Shift4 Payments, which now processes more than $200 billion annually. A prolific pilot, he went on to build Draken International and acquire over 100 fighter jets for adversary training — at one point, he owned the 12th largest air force in the world! Next, we dive into his experience as a commercial astronaut and why he sought the helm of NASA. Jared outlines his bold vision to reform NASA, starting with his announcement to increase the Artemis launch cadence and ensure a return to the Moon by 2028. We discuss the challenges of building a permanent Moon presence, and why nuclear power and propulsion in space is a NASA-unique mission that will attract top talent and help the agency achieve greatness again. Finally, we explore the growing space economy and exciting sci-fi realities we will experience in the years ahead. NASA is a storied American institution; we are fortunate to have a talented leader like Jared who wants to see it not only thrive again, but reach even greater heights. 00:00 Episode intro01:30 Top Gun as a service 07:40 Founding a billion-dollar payments company09:30 Pioneering private spaceflight 12:00 What happened to NASA? 14:40 Getting back to the Moon by 202820:47 Jared announces new plans for Artemis25:15 Future of the space economy 27:50 Nuclear power in space 29:00 Sci-fi futures becoming reality This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 143: JD Ross on the New Invention Era & Building with AI in 2026 27.02.2026 35min

  JD Ross is one of my favorite entrepreneurs. I hired him out of college at Addepar where he quickly became Head of Product. He went on to co-found Opendoor with Keith Rabois and is now building WithCoverage — one of the fastest growing AI-first service companies. JD believes we're entering an "invention era" again. What are the new possibilities with AI? What does it mean for legacy software companies? And why is he especially excited for young talent entering the workforce today?We discuss all this and more, starting with JD's entrepreneurial journey, from founding a moving company in college (that still generates +$10M a year in sales!) to joining Addepar and later founding Opendoor. We discuss some of the breakthroughs and challenges at Opendoor, and why its meme stock moment is infusing new energy and ideas into the company. Next, we dive into WithCoverage and his mission to upend the insurance brokerage industry by combining new AI tools with human expertise — think Ramp for risk management. Initially backed by 8VC, WithCoverage already serves more than 700 enterprise customers and recently closed a $42 million round led by Sequoia and Khosla Ventures. Talented builders like JD are scaling and iterating on new products faster than anything we've seen before — learn what this means for the startup ecosystem, as well as existing SaaS companies looking over their shoulders. Finally, JD explains how AI is leveling the playing field and why he believes this is the best opportunity for new entrepreneurs in recent decades.00:00 Episode intro01:28 JD's entrepreneurial journey05:18 Wins and challenges at Opendoor / meme stock moment09:55 WithCoverage and upending insurance brokerage with AI 13:11 Mimetic frameworks for entrepreneurs 15:45 How AI is changing the way companies are built20:21 The impact of AI on existing SaaS 26:50 How to stop AI spam and imposters 31:27 How should young people prepare for the AI era? 34:20 The new invention era / why AI levels the playing field This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 142: Understanding the AI Wave with 8VC's Alex Kolicich & Jack Moshkovich 17.02.2026 1h 1min

  Advances in AI are occurring at a pace we haven’t seen before in Silicon Valley. How do we know what’s real versus hype? What does it mean for large software incumbents? And how are the top investors and builders thinking about the new possibilities? This week, we talk with two of my partners at 8VC, Alex Kolicich and Jack Moshkovich, who are on the ground working with the leading AI talent to get their perspective on what’s really happening.Alex Kolicich is a Partner at 8VC, where he specializes in IT and Bio-IT investments. Prior, he was a Partner at Formation 8 and worked alongside Peter Thiel at Mithril Capital Management. Alex was also an engineer and early-product advisor at Clarium, Palantir, and Google. Jack Moshkovich began his career at 8VC and helps lead our investment practice alongside Alex out of San Francisco, where he focuses on enterprise software.We begin with Silicon Valley’s most recent technological wave: smart enterprise. In 2013, we published our smart enterprise thesis, predicting the B2B software explosion that drove tremendous value creation over the past decade. Now, we’re entering the next landmark shift: the AI wave. Learn why AI is fundamentally disruptive (you can find our thesis here), and the enormous leap from data retrieval to automated decision making and from linear to non-linear problem solving. Next, we dive into the six layers of the AI investment stack, and why we are focused on level five: the application layer. We dissect the tremendous opportunities for AI-native upstarts, as well as the challenges — and upside — for smart enterprise pioneers that can reorient around AI. Finally, we discuss some of the key questions in the years ahead: When and where will we see massive productivity gains in the economy? Will LLMs become commodities, or is each frontier model sufficiently differentiated? And are we entering a bubble, or is the AI wave just getting started?00:00 Episode intro01:40 Smart enterprise thesis04:00 Did enterprise software dramatically boost productivity?08:30 Understanding the AI wave11:45 Are LLMs becoming commodities? 17:10 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Meta vs Grok20:30 Frontier models vs enterprise incumbents 25:20 What did Palantir get right?32:30 AI case studies/new possibilities 43:00 The most surprising aspect of the AI wave 46:10 Are we entering a bubble? Or just getting started? 52:40 Biggest concern with AI 58:00 Biggest reason for optimism This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 141: AI Hackers Are Here; Cybersecurity Legend Kevin Mandia Is Building the Answer 04.02.2026 38min

  When Kevin Mandia’s phone rings, it’s often a Fortune 500 CEO or government leader with a billion-dollar problem. How did he become the go-to expert in cybersecurity? What new threats from AI led him back into the arena? And what is he building to protect the good guys?Kevin began his career in the U.S. Air Force, defending the U.S. military from some of the earliest cyber attacks. He went on to found and lead Mandiant, scaling it into an industry leader which Google acquired in 2022 for over $5 billion. In 2013, he famously exposed China’s massive state-sponsored cyber espionage inside America. Kevin has also served on the National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC) and the CISA Cybersecurity Advisory Committee. He recently launched Armadin to address new AI possibilities in the cyber domain.To begin, Kevin takes us behind the scenes of the early cyber skirmishes in the 1990s, and what it was like confronting some of the first cyber incursions from Russia and China, as well as the rise of criminal cyber enterprises. In the early 2000s, Kevin noticed glaring gaps in conventional antivirus approaches and launched Mandiant. Learn how he quickly became the first person that CEOs and governments would call if they’d been hacked. After scaling Mandiant and exiting to Google, Kevin is now back in the arena building cutting-edge solutions to new AI cyber threats. He explains the dramatic increase in the productivity and sophistication of AI agents, and why it’s upending how we build cyber defenses. Find out what he’s most worried about in 2026, and what steps governments and CEOs need to take to secure their networks and infrastructure.0:00 Episode intro01:30 Kevin's journey into cyber; early attacks from Russia & China 05:00 The evolution of cyber espionage and crime08:00 Founding Mandiant; why Fortune 500 CEOs call Kevin 13:30 What's it like getting hacked by Russia? 21:30 AI hackers are here; Kevin's warning 27:00 Protecting critical infrastructure; harnessing AI for cyber defense 31:30 Engineers vs AI agents 36:40 Optimism for the future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
• Ep 140: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on Making IPOs Great Again, Crypto's Comeback & New Rules for Retail Investors 26.01.2026 46min

  America’s capital markets are the envy of the world, but in recent years, misguided policies have driven innovation offshore and stifled the number of companies going public. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is reversing course. What’s his plan to make IPOs great again? What will it take for America to become the crypto capital of the world? And does he think we should expand access to private markets for retail investors?This week, we’re honored to feature a conversation with Paul Atkins, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. He also served as a commissioner at the SEC from 2002 to 2008, and worked on the staff of two SEC chairmen from 1990 to 1994. Prior to returning to the SEC in 2025, Chairman Atkins was the founder and chief executive of Patomak Global Partners, a financial services firm he founded in 2009.We begin with Chairman Atkins’ visit to Texas, the significance of Texas’ new business courts, and the importance of innovation in our financial markets. Whereas his predecessor, Gary Gensler, took an adversarial, regulation-by-enforcement approach, he’s embracing new technologies and regulatory clarity. In this vein, the Chairman lays out his strategy for making IPOs great again. Learn why the number of public companies has dropped by nearly half since 2007, and how Chairman Atkins is reforming the rules around litigation and corporate governance to deter activists from harassing America’s builders. We also discuss President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world, and what it looks like to provide clear guidelines that promote innovation and protect investors. Finally, we explore the steps he’s taking to enable retail investors to access private markets and other alternative assets.0:00 Episode intro1:35 Texas' new business courts / evolution of U.S. markets7:20 The SEC's new approach to crypto 16:00 Making IPOs and public companies great again25:00 Weaponization of shareholder proposals and ESG32:10 National security concerns / China's bad actions36:30 New rules for retail investors & private companies 44:35 Optimism for America's future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com