Geopolitical Cousins

Epizode

• The Second Derivative 01.06.2026 1h 33min

  The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream(04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea(05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal(08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals(11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit(13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears(18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs(19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality(27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy(32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk(40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking(47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click(48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology(51:09) - YOLO Trading Era(53:57) - Savings Floor Risks(55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze(56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers(58:30) - Politics And The Fed(01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals(01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics(01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth(01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update(01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns(01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space(01:17:43) - World Cup Preview(01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard(01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions(01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate(01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Forty Meters Under Fordow 27.05.2026 1h 32min

  Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opposition party, protests in Serbia AND OF COURSE close on the NBA playoffs.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:03) - Cousins Reunite!!(01:58) - Iran Ceasefire Strikes Update(05:20) - Deal Dynamics And Domestic Politics(09:07) - Military Posture And Hormuz Leverage(31:52) - Israel Spoiler And Regional Fallout(34:08) - Ebola Outbreak Background(37:13) - Why Ebola Gets Ignored(38:21) - Deglobalization And Pandemic Risk(41:23) - Vaccines Versus Political Will(43:40) - Marco Responds And MAGA Critique(48:17) - Global Health Reality Check(49:07) - Ebola Lessons and Limits(51:06) - Why US Must Engage(55:22) - Serbia Trip and Protests(57:43) - Gen Z Standards Revolution(01:03:30) - No Plan After Protest(01:06:54) - Censorship and Shared Culture(01:08:39) - Metaverse Versus Nationhood(01:20:33) - Turkey Opposition Crackdown(01:23:59) - AOC Mailbag and AI Politics(01:25:23) - NBA Takes Meet Geopolitics(01:30:00) - Victor Wembanyama Era--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• TVI26: C***** Goes #1 22.05.2026 1h 16min

  Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3!Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping(01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered(03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs(05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD(06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick(08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb(10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier(20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence(27:15) - Mitsotakis and Greece Comeback(32:53) - Modi and Sheinbaum Rankings(35:28) - Bukele Drops to Four(37:58) - Mark Carney Goes Number One(40:14) - Carney Goes Number One(40:50) - Steph Curry Comparison(41:46) - Bulking Up Canada(43:38) - Devils Advocate Pushback(45:21) - Trade Value Logic(46:54) - Full Rankings Recap(52:28) - Why Trump Missed Cut(57:41) - Biggest Movers Data(01:00:20) - Ideology Bias Breakdown(01:02:46) - Regional Bias Breakdown(01:05:32) - Starting Five Metaphors(01:06:46) - Xi and Jokic Deep Dive(01:13:34) - Wrap Up and Corrections--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• TVI26: Jinping Rising 22.05.2026 48min

  2026 Trade Values P2 :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:42) - Part Two Setup(02:31) - Lula at Fifteen(05:17) - Macron Debate(09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime(11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising(13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive(17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick(21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff(24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark(25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising(26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks(31:28) - Javier Milei Debate(34:08) - Rapid Fire Picks(37:42) - Top 10 Countdown(38:01) - Guatemala and Singapore(39:25) - Meloni and Sheinbaum(44:11) - Modi in Top Five(47:59) - Wrap and Next Part--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• TVI26: Benchwarmers 22.05.2026 1h 42min

  The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Housekeeping(00:47) - Why We Love Rankings(02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained(06:59) - How We Score Leaders(08:29) - What Trade Value Means(11:03) - Last Year Rankings Recap(13:01) - Wins Misses and Dropoffs(19:43) - Starting the Countdown(20:00) - Jacob Cuts and Bottom Five(26:12) - Vietnam Surprise Pick(27:44) - Marco Honorable Mentions(30:58) - Dishonorable Mentions and Merz(32:34) - Merz Under Fire(33:41) - Hopeful Turnaround Talk(34:52) - Greenland Surprise Pick(36:23) - Nepal Gen Z Rookie(41:04) - Lula Back on Board(46:56) - Sri Lanka and Hungary Upside(49:44) - Meloni Slips Down(52:10) - Erdogan and Turkey’s Long Game(55:05) - Middle East and Africa Rankings(57:55) - Pakistan’s Geopolitical Comeback(01:00:53) - Syria’s New Strongman(01:02:35) - Sweden and Spain Reassessment(01:06:55) - Singapore’s Efficiency Model(01:08:58) - System Made Singapore(01:10:02) - Trade Value Debate(01:11:01) - Lee Jae Myung Profile(01:12:59) - Israel Tweet Controversy(01:16:55) - Prabowo Indonesia Wrap(01:19:49) - Iran Council Ranked(01:20:56) - Netanyahu Tradeoff Case(01:22:19) - Morocco Quiet Success(01:28:20) - Israel Umbilical Cord(01:37:34) - Gulf Royals Picks(01:40:34) - UAE Critique And Close--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• A Soybean faux-détente 15.05.2026 1h 28min

  Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of diesel, and AOC is sharpening her ideological fangs. After Dark, as advertised.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show rundown and updates(00:45) - After Dark banter(01:47) - Trump meets Xi(02:47) - Why the summit matters(05:42) - Messaging and skepticism(08:04) - Military intelligence complex(09:46) - Tech split and hardware lobby(14:05) - Globalization lessons and leverage(20:29) - COVID and Nixon to China(25:00) - Who carries the baton(34:46) - China economics and engineering state(37:54) - Consumers inflation and pain tolerance(46:12) - Pentagon report dime framework(46:57) - DIME Framework Roast(47:53) - China and Hormuz Deal(52:11) - Chinese Shipping Boom(53:02) - Gulf Commodities Pivot(55:11) - US China Mixed Signals(59:12) - Mexico Relationship Flashpoints(01:01:23) - Cuba Protests and Indictments(01:03:27) - Do Mexicans Want Help(01:06:02) - CIA vs Delta Force Debate(01:12:47) - AOC Billionaire Clip(01:19:21) - Populism and Corruption(01:26:56) - California Race Wrap Up--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• China Just Doesn't Care 05.05.2026 1h 17min

  The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate(12:17) - Should China Pressure Iran(15:57) - Global South Stakes and Bagels(18:34) - China Strategic Patience Rebuttal(32:03) - What China Offers the World(34:40) - Yuan Push and Middle Kingdom(36:54 China Whiffing the Moment(38:50) - China Constraints First(39:34) - Disciplining Iran Debate(41:29) - Multipolarity Versus Bipolar(43:08) - Iran Strikes UAE Update(45:33) - Ceasefire And Escalation(49:12) - Oil Inventories Supply Hole(51:15) - Markets Ignore War Risk(53:15) - AI Capex Takes Over(56:09) - Energy Inequality And Supply Chains(58:37) - Trump Priorities And Timeline(01:02:08) - Rebuilding After US Backstop(01:05:42) - Pandemic Shifted China Views(01:09:47) - Propaganda And Cultural Hegemony(01:14:55) - NBA Riffs And Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Cousins After Dark 30.04.2026 1h 17min

  Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.--Timestamps:(00:00) - After Dark(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter(03:01) - From Sports to Iran(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage(10:06) - Demand Destruction Debate(13:48) - Trump Narrative and Blame(18:04) - Cold War Framing(19:27) - China Pressure and Pakistan(33:11) - UAE Leaves OPEC(36:30) - Cartels and Oil Math(40:00) - Saudi Price Warfare(41:06) - OPEC Share Debate(41:53) - UAE Saudi Rift Risks(42:49) - Why OPEC Can Undercut(46:12) - Putin Polls Warning(48:56) - Russia Pivot Playbook(55:06) - KD Leadership Analogy(01:01:06) - Panama Canal Signaling(01:07:12) - Canada Wealth Fund Plan(01:15:00) - Wrap Up and Playoffs--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• The Supply Hole 24.04.2026 1h 30min

  Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Strategic Vibe Reserves 21.04.2026 1h 21min

  China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be. Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Housekeeping(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Bombing for Peace 18.04.2026 1h 26min

  Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts(00:56) - Hero Principal Story(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Taco Tuesday 09.04.2026 1h 15min

  Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• The Spice Must Flow! 01.04.2026 1h 18min

  We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Open(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B(11:43) - Door C War But Oil(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior 27.03.2026 1h 45min

  The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption. His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.--Timestamps:00:00 Welcome01:32 Beer And Banter05:05 Trump Pause And Troops06:43 Oil Shock Timeline08:41 Houthis And Red Sea11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil13:43 Troop Math Reality18:06 War Outlook Shifts24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios28:50 Iran Constraints Debate32:20 Market Mispricing Pain34:12 China And Allies Fallout35:09 China Leverage on Iran36:55 Low Conviction Warnings37:53 Middle East War Normalized40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold48:36 Markets Start to Crack53:24 Munitions and Time Limits54:55 Europe Energy Exposure56:52 Europe Must Get Real59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation 13.03.2026 1h 21min

  Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• They Don't Want the Smoke 10.03.2026 1h 12min

  Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.--Timestamps:(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap(02:15) - Trump War Quotes(02:54) - Menu Metaphor(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity(07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet(09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic(12:35) - Iran Succession Shock(14:43) - Attack Data and B52s(16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz(20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters(24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk(27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario(30:37) - Trump and Market Downside(32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy(36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building(38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency(40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines(41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace(43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down(45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters(47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran(51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check(53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario(59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down(01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation(01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Epic Heat Check 06.03.2026 1h 12min

  Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:47) - Oval Office Firings(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat(08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation(12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals(13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone(19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran(23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk(27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock(34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview(38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory(39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold(41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation(44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards(46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military(51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario(56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts(01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure(01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour(01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Why Hormuz Matters 05.03.2026 38min

  We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.--Timestamps:(01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson(01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters(02:47) - Shipping Crisis Era(06:36) - Asia Demand Explained(08:18) - Flows Stop Prices Spike(11:24) - Insurance Myth GPS Spoofing(16:11) - Risk Premium Tanker Boom(21:21) - Can US Build Tankers(23:16) - How To Reopen Confidence(27:08) - Red Sea Part Two(30:48) - Rethinking Energy Routes(35:11) - Oil Types, Geology Limits(37:27) - Where To Follow Ed(38:41) - Closing Thanks--Referenced in the Show:Ed's Substack: https://edfin.substack.com/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• Thin Ice 04.03.2026 1h 41min

  Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)--Timestamps:(01:23) - Wisconsin field research(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe(30:05) - Spain politics and energy(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth(39:31) - Why No World War(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed(50:10) - World War Incentives(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head 01.03.2026 1h 16min

  The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe. History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the triumphalism and strap in for another fun episode of "America Intervenes Without Doing the Math Beforehand." --Timestamps:(01:01) - The Most Important Geopolitical Development This Week(02:51) - Seguing Into Iran War(04:48) - Regime Change Reality Check(10:56) - Decapitation Strike Fallout(12:20) - Saudi Angle And Gulf Targets(13:50) - Hormuz And Market Shock(19:26) - Drone War Asymmetry Risk(22:46) - Trump Regime Calibration(25:41) - Why Trump Could Do It(33:02) - Is Iran A US Threat(35:01) - Multipolar Message To World(38:58) - Unipolar Limits(40:24) - Deterrence Arms Race(41:49) - Multipolar 19th Century(44:24) - Is It About China(47:46) - Strait of Hormuz Signal(49:33) - Russia Oil Windfall(51:31) - Missiles and Deal Logic(53:58) - Eurasian Conflict Crescent(55:53) - Iran Civil War Risk(01:00:22) - Revolution Timing Debate(01:05:17) - Israel Factor in Uprisings(01:10:24) - Purim and Perceptions(01:12:16) - Ahmadinejad Legacy(01:15:44) - Wrap Up and Sign Off--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro