Redefining Energy

Epizode

• 231. Car Wars: China vs. the West - Jun26 01.06.2026 32min

  The global auto industry is splitting into two very different worlds — what legendary auto expert Michael Dunne calls “a tale of two countries.” Dunne, CEO of Dunne Insights LLC, has spent decades at the centre of the industry, including leadership roles as President of General Motors Indonesia and Managing Director of JD Power China.  On one side stands the United States, increasingly resembling a modern-day Cuba: a market dominated by oversized, fuel-hungry SUVs aimed at a shrinking audience, while legacy automakers squeeze the last profits from internal combustion engines. Last year alone, Detroit’s Big Three wrote off more than $50 billion in EV investments.  On the other side is China, moving at extraordinary speed and scale. The recent Beijing Auto Show showcased the country’s relentless innovation: 38 hectares of exhibition space — roughly 50 football fields — featuring 1,451 vehicles, including 181 world debuts, and attracting 1.3 million visitors, with only 65,000 coming from overseas. It is no longer just about BYD. Chinese giants such as Geely, SAIC, and FAW have caught up rapidly, transforming China into a market where internal combustion vehicles already feel like an afterthought.  Only two foreign automakers still command real respect in China: Toyota and Tesla. Others — including Honda, Nissan, and most European manufacturers — are steadily losing ground.Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world is accelerating toward electrification as rising oil prices reshape consumer behaviour. Countries such as Thailand, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and Mexico are embracing EVs, while electric vehicle sales continue to surge across Europe.  Battery technology is still advancing, but the next decisive battleground is autonomy. Here, the United States maintains a lead through companies like Waymo and Tesla — though Chinese competitors are closing the gap quickly.   2026 may also mark the tipping point for electric trucks becoming mainstream, with adoption expected to accelerate rapidly once scale economics take hold.  So how can non-Chinese automakers compete? Not through protectionism, but by learning from China’s playbook: moving faster, investing more aggressively in next-generation technologies, and, in some cases, partnering directly with Chinese firms.  Yet another major challenge looms over the industry: excess manufacturing capacity. Factories in both Europe and China are currently operating at only around 50% utilisation, with the United States performing only slightly better.  Dunne’s upcoming book, Car Wars, due out next year, explores this seismic shift in detail. It tells the story of how China built the world’s most powerful EV ecosystem — and whether Western automakers can survive the collision.        
• 230. The growing complexity of battery fleet management - May26 25.05.2026 30min

  The BESS market is growing at a phenomenal pace. You would think battery management is becoming easier. The reality? It is becoming increasingly complex.  Between data risks, a growing number of suppliers, vertically disintegrated component chains, and constantly evolving software stacks, investors can quickly lose control of their battery fleets.  Only a handful of companies truly operate in the fast-maturing field of battery analytics. And we are not talking about market optimisation focused on financial returns, but deep predictive analytics: understanding what happens inside the system itself, with expertise in battery health, performance, and safety.  Laurent and Gerard have the privilege of welcoming Stephan Rohr, CEO of TWAICE, one of Germany’s leading battery analytics companies.TWAICE has become a major player in recent years: more than 100 employees, including battery scientists, chemists, software engineers, and data scientists, with operations across Europe, the US, and Asia.The company has raised over €60m in equity from leading investors including Energize, Coatue, and Creandum (early investor in Spotify), alongside €25m in debt financing from the EIB.  With Stephan, we explored the new complexity of battery fleet management — all the way down to the individual cell. Why BESS is a completely different beast from solar? Why is the excellence in operations becoming the real competitive edge? How to address hardware and software sovereignty challenges? And ultimately, the 20-year question: these assets will remain on the grid for decades. You need to build the operational infrastructure for that reality today — not patch it together later.  A highly informative — and delightfully geeky — conversation about managing battery fleet complexity.
• 229. Climate Tech reinvented: from green molecules to green electrons - May26 18.05.2026 32min

  Where is Climate Tech heading? Certainly not dead — but constantly reinventing itself. So much so that you begin to wonder whether the label itself has outlived its original meaning.  Laurent and Gerard welcome Kim Zou, co-founder and CEO of Sightline Climate, the data and research platform mapping the climate-tech economy, and author of some of the sector’s most influential newsletters, including CTVC and the newer Powerstack. Sightline has become essential reading for investors, utilities, corporates, and policymakers trying to understand where capital is flowing and how the energy system is evolving.  Together, they explore how Climate Tech has transformed over the past decade. Decarbonisation alone is no longer the central narrative. Today, AI, energy security, and industrial resilience dominate the conversation — often pushing sustainability itself into the background.  The discussion traces how funding has shifted from venture capital toward infrastructure and large-scale project finance. The spotlight has also moved away from “green molecules” — hydrogen, SAF, and carbon management — toward “green electrons”: virtual power plants, grid-enhancing technologies, and the race to accelerate datacentre construction.  They also examine the contrasting innovation models shaping global competition. In China, much of the breakthrough innovation happens inside corporations themselves, with companies like BYD employing more than 110,000 R&D staff, and CATL relying on a 20,000-engineer workforce. The United States, meanwhile, benefits from unparalleled access to capital and world-class universities and research centres. Europe sits somewhere in between, attempting to combine industrial policy with scientific excellence.  Finally, the conversation turns to one of Sightline’s newest areas of focus: tracking data-center construction. The company currently follows 140 sites representing roughly 16 GW of announced capacity. Yet only about 6 GW are actually under construction — a reality check that has sent a chill through Wall Street.And Laurent goes on a rant of epic proportion against certain Hyperscalers!!!Useful links:Sightline website: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/Capital Stack and New Funds report: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/request-report?report-id=Dry-Powder-and-New-Funds-2026 ·        Data Center Q1 outlook report: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/request-report?report-id=data-center-outlook-q126 ·        2025 climate tech investment trends report: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/request-report?report-id=2025_investment_report ·        Article on our tour of China's electrostate: https://www.sightlineclimate.com/research/a-tour-of-chinas-electrostate ·        If people want to stay updated on our latest, they can subscribe to our 
• 228. Decentralizing Power: The Rise of Behind-the-Meter Energy - May26 11.05.2026 30min

  The power system is aging and poorly equipped to handle the rapid, large-scale shift toward renewables. According to Philipp Schröder, CEO of 1KOMMA5°, the real solutions lie “behind the meter.”  Gerard and Laurent sit down with Schröder to unpack what it will take to unlock the so-called “Behind the Meter” revolution.  Schröder is among a small group of European founders aiming to build a vertically integrated, consumer-focused clean energy company—something akin to a European hybrid of Tesla Energy and Sunrun. His approach combines hardware (such as solar PV systems, home batteries, heat pumps, and EV chargers), installation networks, intelligent software (including IoT-driven energy management like “Heartbeat”), and active participation in energy markets.  Software is becoming increasingly critical. Grid management and pricing systems remain outdated and inefficient, especially in Germany, where reform has been slow due to entrenched interests and the slow deployment of smart meters. By contrast, countries like Sweden are already moving ahead with more modern approaches.  The company’s growth appears to validate this strategy. 1KOMMA5° now employs over 3,000 people, is approaching EUR1 billion in annual revenue, and has raised EUR400 million from investors including Eurazeo, CalSTRS, and several prominent family offices.  Key questions remain: How does Schröder position 1KOMMA5° against competitors like Octopus, Enpal, Base, and Thermondo? Is he building the next kind of utility—or deliberately staying outside that model? And how does he navigate policy challenges, particularly when engaging with energy leaders in Germany who remain supportive of fossil fuels?  A fascinating conversation with a formidable entrepreneur who gives back literally “Power to the People”.
• 227. Wind + Grids = Energy Security - May26 04.05.2026 28min

  Gerard and Laurent welcome Tinne Van der Straeten, CEO of WindEurope—the leading voice of the wind industry in Europe, representing more than 600 members across the entire value chain. Tinne brings a distinctive perspective to the discussion. As Belgium’s Minister for Energy during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, she experienced an energy crisis firsthand. Her background in policymaking offers a different vantage point from that of investors, shaped by the practical realities and trade-offs of government decision-making.  The conversation highlights that, despite ongoing challenges, wind energy continues to expand rapidly across Europe, with €45 billion in final investment decisions recorded in 2025. There is now a clear opportunity to repower first-generation onshore turbines, which could double installed capacity and potentially triple electricity generation. Offshore wind also stands out as a major growth area, with the North Sea remaining the central hub, while the Baltic Sea is developing steadily and early signs of momentum are emerging in Spain.  At the same time, the discussion points to the persistence of outdated, ideologically driven debates around energy sources—such as gas in Germany or nuclear in France—which increasingly feel disconnected from current realities. Policies like bans on onshore wind in Poland and offshore wind in Sweden illustrate decisions that risk slowing progress.  A central theme is the urgent need to electrify demand, particularly through the adoption of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and the expansion of data centers.  The conversation concludes by emphasizing that the missing piece is a large, integrated pan-European grid—potentially extending to Canada—combined with battery storage. Such infrastructure would accelerate decarbonization, support economic resilience, and help Europe regain control over its energy future.Sources:GWEC 2026 https://www.gwec.net/reports/globalwindreportWindEurope Wind Energy Statistics and Outlook Report https://windeurope.org/news/europe-invested-45bn-in-new-wind-energy-in-2025-market-tampering-would-put-future-investments-at-acute-risk/ WindEurope energy system cost study: https://windeurope.org/news/a-renewables-based-energy-system-will-save-europe-1-6-trillion/
• 226. Energy trends and shocks: from “range anxiety” to “pump anxiety” - Apr26 27.04.2026 28min

  Ember released its 2026 Global Electricity Review (GER26) last week—an extraordinary report showing that 100% of new global electricity generation has been met by renewables. At the same time, the decade’s “twin energy shocks” (Russia in 2022 and Hormuz in 2026) are accelerating existing trends.  What do the latest numbers tell us—and what do they mean? Laurent and Gerard are joined by a great friend of the show, Kingsmill Bond, Lead Energy Strategist at Ember, to break it all down.They begin with the GER’s key findings, looking closely at China, the United States, Europe, and India. The figures are striking: in 2025, wind and solar alone accounted for all net global power growth—roughly equivalent to Japan’s total electricity consumption. And even that may be an underestimate, given likely gaps in data from Africa and behind-the-meter generation.  From there, the discussion shifts from long-term trends to sudden shocks. These shocks act as accelerators. Consumers, responding quickly, are installing rooftop solar and buying electric vehicles at record rates. Governments, by contrast, often move more slowly, seeking to protect incumbents and hoping for a return to the old status quo. But that return is increasingly unrealistic.  Looking beyond the numbers, the episode explores how energy shocks reshape the system. The oil shocks of the 1970s drove gains in efficiency and a wave of nuclear investment. Today’s shocks are pushing electrification, expanding renewables, and speeding up EV adoption.  Four major long-term implications stand out: 1) Asia is set to electrify faster than the rest of the world 2) Transport electrification will accelerate 3) LNG will be pushed out of the power sector 4) The long-anticipated “peak oil demand” is drawing closer.   In summary, we are shifting from a world defined by range anxiety to one increasingly shaped by pump anxiety.  Link to papers.-  Ember GER26 https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/-  Twin Shocks https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock/
• 225. US Utilities vs Hyperscalers - Apr26 20.04.2026 33min

  In episode 219, we analysed the relationship between hyperscalers and US utilities from the hyperscaler perspective. To complete the picture, we revisit the debate from the utility’s point of view.Gerard and Laurent welcome Rajiv Bazaj, VP of Solutions Sales at Constellation, to understand how utilities approach this rapidly evolving landscape. Spun out of Exelon a few years ago, Constellation was initially seen as the “ugly duckling,” but it was sitting on a major advantage: a large nuclear fleet. What was considered a liability in the 2010s has become a strategic asset as hyperscalers search for clean, reliable 24/7 power.The acquisition of Calpine and its large CCGT fleet turned Constellation into the largest US utility in terms of capacity, with around 60 GW (half nuclear, half gas) and roughly 200 TWh of annual generation—placing the company at the centre of discussions with hyperscalers and data centre developers.Constellation’s approach remains cautious. The company is only gradually moving into batteries, is bullish on demand response following the surge in PJM capacity prices and is exploring upgrades to its nuclear fleet while remaining sceptical about. Geothermal. where the Company is active, is attractive but seen as difficult to scale.The overall picture is one of disciplined conservatism. Constellation cannot easily be pushed by aggressive data centre developers because it already has the right generation mix at the right time. Its core objective is simple: maximise fleet load factors and sell MWh at the highest possible price. Gas assets operate in the mid-merit order with strong spark spreads, while nuclear requires higher long-term prices to justify further investment, as illustrated by the Microsoft-supported Three Mile Island restart.With around 90% of its capacity built in the 20th century, Constellation is focused on upgrading and optimising its existing fleet rather than pursuing large-scale expansion. For hyperscalers, understanding this mindset is key when engaging with utilities.
• 224. From Wind farms (yield) to Datacenters (growth) - Apr26 13.04.2026 29min

  Laurent and Gerard sit down with Paul O’Donnell, Partner at SchrodersGreencoat, a fund manager that has invested more than €13 billion and controls over 400 renewable energy assets across Europe, the Americas, and Asia. Paul has spent 17 years at Greencoat and became Partner in 2022, following Schroders’ acquisition of the platform, which itself was acquired by Nuveen in 2026. Greencoat has a distinctive structure, as it manages listed vehicles—historically known as YieldCos—designed to provide stable dividends to investors through long-term infrastructure assets.  The discussion begins with a deep dive into the evolution of the renewable energy sector over the past 10–15 years. The market has shifted from portfolios primarily backed by government-supported contracts to a more dynamic growth strategy built on active portfolio management, trading, power purchase agreements (PPAs) with hyperscalers, and the hybridisation of assets. A key milestone in this evolution has been the push toward vertical integration, illustrated by partnerships such as the Greencoat collaboration with CATL.  The conversation also explores the growing convergence between energy investors and real estate or digital infrastructure investors, particularly in the financing of datacenters. Energy supply and cooling infrastructure are becoming increasingly critical components of data centre investment strategies. While off-grid solutions are sometimes feasible in the United States—typically involving off-grid power combined with on-grid gas—such options remain very limited in Europe.Datacenters geography is also evolving. First-generation facilities were typically located close to major load centres and urban demand hubs, whereas second-generation developments are moving further away from large cities to areas where land and power availability are more abundant. This shift is driving strong interest in brownfield sites, including former coal plants, steel mills, and refineries.  The transition from a pure yield model to a growth-oriented strategy has been well received by the market, particularly after several years of lacklustre share price performance. This approach mirrors the playbook seen at Quinbrook and Intersect and is increasingly viewed as the winning strategy in the current market environment.  
• 223. Solar + Storage: The Economic Core of the Future Grid - Apr26 06.04.2026 31min

  Gerard is invited by Ana Conde from PVcase to make the case for solar paired with storage as the economic foundation of the future energy system.We are in the midst of a technological revolution driven by electrification and AI. But building the energy system that can power this shift requires more than adding new capacity — it demands system-level thinking, new coordination mechanisms, and new financial models to ensure a smooth transition.They explore how solar moved from a niche technology to the backbone of modern energy infrastructure and why pairing it with storage is no longer optional for project bankability and long-term competitiveness.They discuss how grid outages act as warning signals, exposing the fragility of legacy infrastructure, and what that implies for resilience in an increasingly electrified world.The conversation also examines the economic incentives, institutional inertia, and behavioural forces that resist technological change — and how innovative business models are beginning to unlock faster adoption.This episode goes beyond viewing solar as a technology alone. It unpacks the economics and coordination required to build a resilient, low-cost energy system capable of supporting the AI-driven future.--An episode delivered in partnership with SolarPower Europe. SolarPower Europe has established the ‘Battery Storage Europe Platform’ (advocacy, COMs campaigning, networking) around battery storage. Companies should join as members to help us push messages on solar, flexibility and batteries https://www.batterystorageeurope.org/
• 222. Understanding Energy and Technology in China - Mar26 30.03.2026 32min

  Laurent and Gerard speak with Dr. Michal Meidan, Head of China Energy Research at the China Energy Research Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, about the profound transformation reshaping China’s energy system. At the heart of the discussion is the country’s pivot from “molecules” to “electrons” — a structural shift from fossil fuels toward electrification powered by renewables, batteries, and electric mobility. This transition is not just about decarbonization; it represents a broader industrial and technological reconfiguration with global consequences. At the same time, China remains central to fossil fuel markets: it is the world's largest fossil fuel importer and is set to maintain that position for the rest of this decade and beyond.  Still the recent events in the Strait of Hormuz have vindicated China’s energy policy of diversification, investment and strategic storage.  China’s approach reflects a distinctive “dual track” model in which command-and-control planning coexists with market dynamics. Central government frameworks, including the recent 15th Five-Year Plan, set strategic direction, while provinces interpret and implement policy with varying degrees of alignment or competition. At times collaborative and at times antagonistic, the relationship between Beijing and local authorities shapes how targets are pursued and reported. China often reframes its narrative retrospectively, particularly where electric vehicles and battery production have dramatically surpassed official expectations, highlighting the interplay between state ambition and private-sector execution.  At the same time, the transition has been propelled by powerful entrepreneurial forces. Leaders such as Robin Zheng of CATL and Stella Li of BYD embody the “animal spirits” that have driven innovation and scale in batteries and electric vehicles. In many cases, private firms have exceeded policy goals, complicating simplistic narratives of top-down control and demonstrating how state guidance and commercial dynamism reinforce one another.  Energy security remains a central pillar of this strategy. The current Hormuz crisis as well as the power shortages of 2020–2022 have exposed vulnerabilities in China’s system and reinforced the leadership’s determination to build integrated domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on imported fuels and critical materials. Industrial policy and energy policy are deeply intertwined, with electrification, renewables, and advanced manufacturing serving both resilience and competitiveness objectives. The drive for clean technology is therefore as much about strategic autonomy as it is about environmental stewardship.  Finally, the episode also addresses persistent misconceptions in Europe and the United States about China’s system, challenging both exaggerated fears and wishful thinking. Understanding China’s energy transition requires grappling with its internal tensions, strategic pragmatism, and the scale of its ambitions.  Oxford Institute https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/disruption-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-implications-for-chinas-energy-markets-and-policies/  Carbon Brief and Lauri Myllyvirta    15FYP coverage https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-15th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change/  Latest on China emisisons
• 221. LNG – Hormuz – “Apocalypse Now” - Mar26 23.03.2026 26min

  Gerard and Laurent host Ira Joseph, a leading expert on gas and LNG markets at the Columbia Center on Global Energy, to explore how the Middle East conflict is reshaping the industry.In normal times, LNG supply is led by Qatar, the U.S., and Australia, with prices anchored to benchmarks like Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM. Before the war, markets were relatively well supplied, keeping prices stable.Three weeks into the conflict, that balance has shifted. Brent crude has climbed to about $110, European gas (TTF) to around $20/MMBtu, while U.S. Henry Hub remains near $3—highlighting growing regional divergence driven by infrastructure and trade flows.Two views have emerged: the White House sees a temporary disruption, while analysts like Jeff Currie and James Gutman argue this is a structural supply shock—captured by the idea that “you can’t print molecules.”The impact is uneven. Europe is highly exposed, Asia faces rising competition for cargoes, and emerging markets risk being priced out. The U.S. remains relatively insulated but increasingly vital as a supplier. Massive damage to key Gulf infrastructure such as South Pars and Ras Laffan will disrupt flows for months if not years.In response, short-term measures include stock releases, more coal production and demand cuts. Longer term the crisis may spur new LNG investment, accelerate energy security efforts, and boost the development of renewables while further fragmenting global markets.The takeaway: this is not just another cycle, but a structural shift in the future of energy.ReferencesHC Group podcasts with Paul Chapmanhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/4FelokgY7oWXMxwyv75N0D?si=SgGNX7S_RZuFnry5Ckdi_Qhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/6bOCstN1chwOmB16u5SvRU?si=mu9PEjU9QQqvSHSmXlTafgOn LNG. Ira Joseph papershttps://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-and-global-energy-impacts/
• 220. Deal Trends for M&A and Energy Financing - Mar26 16.03.2026 28min

  Six years after her last appearance on the podcast (Episode 28, 15 June 2020), Natasha Luther-Jones  returns to join Laurent and Gerard for a lively catch-up on how both her career and the energy sector have evolved. What began with her being dubbed the “Queen of PPA” has expanded into a far broader role — prompting the hosts to crown her the “Energy Empress” as she now operates across the full spectrum of global energy and infrastructure.  Natasha reflects on the evolution as the Global co-chair in the Energy & Natural Resources practice at DLA Piper, describing how client demand has shifted from single-asset transactions to complex, multi-technology, cross-border platforms. The market has matured significantly, with renewables now firmly established as mainstream infrastructure and capital becoming more disciplined and selective.  A major growth area is battery energy storage systems (BESS), which have moved from being an adjunct to renewables to a core investment thesis in their own right. Storage, hybridisation and co-location strategies are reshaping project design, while revenue stacking and merchant exposure are demanding more sophisticated structuring and risk management.  On the M&A front, Natasha highlights sustained deal activity and strong valuations for scaled platforms and development pipelines. The market is firmly in a consolidation phase, with investors prioritising portfolio and platform transactions over single-asset deals. Innovative financing models, including holdco structures and cross-collateralisation across diversified portfolios, are increasingly replacing traditional asset-by-asset project finance.  The conversation also turns to the accelerating demand from AI-driven datacentres and the growing integration of digital infrastructure within energy complexes. As power demand surges, particularly for firm and clean energy, the convergence of energy and technology is creating new investment models and strategic partnerships — signalling that the next chapter of the energy transition will be defined as much by integration and capital structuring as by capacity build-out.
• 219. Hyperscalers vs US Utilities - Mar26 09.03.2026 30min

  While Gerard is fixing his knee, Laurent invites Chris Seiple, Vice Chairman of WoodMac Power & Renewables group, to try to make sense of the scale of the coming power demand surge and the strain it is placing on today’s US market structures.AI-driven datacenter growth is pushing the US power system into uncharted territory. Roughly 180 GW of U.S. electricity commitments tied to datacenters represent about 30% incremental demand. Hyperscaler CAPEX is exploding. Demand is accelerating far faster than new supply can come online, setting up a near-term imbalance. In response, the U.S. utility sector is preparing for a potential $1.4 trillion investment supercycle over the next five years.In regulated markets, utilities are under pressure to modernize cost-of-service models and deliver massive capital programs while keeping electricity affordable. Companies such as Duke Energy, Southern Company, Entergy, and CenterPoint Energy are planning investments that run into the hundreds of billions.In deregulated markets, players like Constellation Energy, Vistra Corp., and NRG Energy face a structural mismatch: datacenters can be built faster than power plants, while price signals may not rise quickly enough to incentivize new generation. Some customers are exploring off-grid solutions, but these bring technical and economic challenges.The conclusion is clear: load growth is staggering. Parts of the system may move toward re-regulation, but that alone will not be enough. Rapid innovation—decentralized solutions, grid-enhancing technologies, faster interconnections, and deeper digitization—will be essential as utilities relearn how to build at scale and speed.  Check an excellent WoodMac report on the Datacentershttps://www.woodmac.com/horizons/us-data-centre-power-demand-challenges-electricity-market-model/  
• 218. Climate Tech Battle Royale (Shayle Kann vs. Gerard Reid) - Mar26 02.03.2026 37min

  Last month, Gerard Reid joined Shayle Kann, Managing Partner at Energy Impact Partners, for a world class and fast-moving conversation on the state and future of Climate Tech.   The discussion was organised by Carbon Equity and led by its co-founder Liza Rubinstein Malamud.Originally it featured a third guest, Will Dufton of Giant Ventures, whose contributions were fully edited for this episode (with apologies — and an open invitation to return).  First strong statement: the Silicon Valley-style climate tech era of 2021–2022 is over. Gerard is clear that carbon removal and hydrogen, at least as they were framed and funded during the hype cycle, are effectively dead. What comes now is a far more grounded, infrastructure-driven view of the transition.  Both guests are emphatically bullish on energy and AI. Shayle especially sees climate tech not as a standalone vertical, but as a horizontal that cuts across the entire economy. Anything that supports electrification, datacenters, and energy-hungry digital infrastructure represents a major opportunity. Gerard pushes the horizon even further, imagining datacenters in space.  A central theme is the convergence of AI and the physical world. Shayle argues that as large language models become commoditised, value will move from bits to atoms — from software to real-world systems, infrastructure, and industrial processes. Gerard complements this with a strong emphasis on resilience, positioning it as a defining investment lens for the coming decade.  On batteries, there is rare and total agreement. Both see them as the most important technology of our time, underpinning electrification, grid stability, transport, and the scaling of renewables.  What emerges is an intense, wide-ranging exchange between two of the sharpest minds in the energy transition — a true Battle Royale on where climate, energy, and technology are heading next.  You can watch the hour-long video here: https://youtu.be/H5YE1Upe0JI?si=HlgHKFOOjZj8Gygp    
• 217. Lithium, Copper, Silver and other metals go ballistic - Feb26 23.02.2026 27min

  Lithium has doubled in three months. Copper is printing record highs. Silver went vertical—then collapsed. The move was fast. The reversals were faster. Volatility isn’t elevated. It’s systemic.  But this isn’t just another commodity cycle. These metals sit at the core of the energy transition. They’re embedded in batteries, EVs, transmission lines, datacenters, wind turbines, and solar modules. When they move, the entire transition complex moves with them.  So, what are we really looking at? Is this a positioning squeeze in thin markets? Or the early tremors of a structural repricing?  The divide is clear. At The Carlyle Group, Jeff Currie argues we’re only “on the foothills of the Himalayas” — the early stage of a structural supercycle driven by electrification, grid build-out, and constrained supply. Ed Morse pushes back. High prices cure high prices. Capital flows. Supply responds. Markets rebalance. Cycles end the way they always have. Two very different frameworks. One structural. One cyclical.  To cut through the noise, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Matt Fernley, Managing Director at Battery Materials Review and Partner at RK Equity. They dissect what’s actually driving these rallies — inventory tightness, permitting bottlenecks, capital discipline, geopolitics, demand elasticity.  They confront the supply question head-on: Can new production realistically catch up — on time, on budget, and at scale? And they explore the technologies that could reshape the curve — from the re-emergence of direct lithium extraction (DLE) to the accelerating development of sodium-ion batteries.  This isn’t just about price volatility. It’s about whether the energy transition is entering a new cost regime. Because if these inputs are structurally repricing, everything downstream changes. And if they aren’t — the unwind could be just as violent.----Link to the report by the Volta Foundationhttps://volta.foundation/battery-report-2025/
• 216. Clean Energy Equities Market: "Dancing While the Music Plays" - Feb26 16.02.2026 34min

  Clean Energy equities have comfortably outperformed the major indices in 2025.  Laurent and Gerard are joined by friend of the show Shanu Mathew, an equity portfolio manager everyone in the sector knows to unpack what’s really driving this performance.  We begin by putting recent returns into a longer-term context — and by flagging an important caveat: some of the strongest results are coming from highly concentrated portfolios.  Shanu makes a critical distinction that often gets blurred in market commentary: equipment providers versus sellers of electrons. On one side sit companies like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Schneider Electric, Caterpillar — and the surprise guest, Bloom Energy. On the other are utilities and IPPs. The divergence is striking. Equipment manufacturers have gone ballistic; utilities have performed, but at a far more pedestrian pace.  The difference, unsurprisingly, is pricing power. Equipment suppliers — particularly those insulated from Chinese competition — have been able to push through aggressive price increases, turbocharged by surging demand from Hyperscalers. Utilities, by contrast, remain constrained by regulation, public scrutiny, and political pressure.  The result? Hyperscalers are increasingly looking to self-generation: reciprocating engines, fuel cells, and a growing enthusiasm for frontier technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors.  We walk through these alternatives, examine how public markets are valuing them today, and end where every cycle eventually leads us: Are we in a bubble? Or, as Chuck Prince, then CEO of Citigroup, famously put it on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis:“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
• 215. PPAs, FPAs, IPPs, Flex and Capture rates: new paradigms - Feb26 09.02.2026 27min

  Luca Pedretti, Co-Founder, Pexapark, returns to discuss how volatility, market design, and new contract structures are transforming power markets and renewable economics. What begins with PPA pricing quickly evolves into a broader conversation about where value is now created in the clean energy system.We start with the growing importance of IFRS 13 fair value accounting. In increasingly volatile markets, long-term forecasts are no longer sufficient. Market-implied PPA prices are moving faster than fundamentals and are becoming a key signal for future capture rates and risk, forcing investors to reassess how renewable assets are valued.The discussion then turns to Flexibility Purchase Agreements (FPAs), including tolls and floors for batteries. FPAs reflect a fundamental shift from generation toward flexibility and optimisation, as renewable-heavy systems face cannibalisation, negative prices, and widening price spreads.With clean sources now accounting for nearly half of EU power generation, these side effects are becoming structural. Solar capture rates have dropped sharply in markets such as Germany, negative prices now occur in thousands of hours across Europe, and curtailment and balancing costs are rising. Batteries have become the system’s primary response.We also explore how the buyer landscape is shifting. Hyperscalers and data centres are increasingly driving private PPAs, utilities are regaining relevance through trading and optimisation, and stand-alone renewable PPAs are showing signs of saturation. Despite this, capital deployment across clean energy continues to grow, signalling a reallocation of value rather than a slowdown.The conversation concludes with a look ahead. Many renewable assets financed under merchant assumptions are now misaligned with today’s pricing reality. Battery tolls and floors are scaling quickly, consolidation among IPPs is accelerating, and capture rates remain unstable. The open question remains whether any buyers are willing to pay a green premium for co-located and hybrid projects in a market where flexibility has become central to value creation.Link to Pexapark reportsIPPs:https://go.pexapark.com/next-gen-ipp-playbookRenewables Market Outlook 2026 - The Big Repricing: How volatility and BESS reshape clean energy markets (PPAs and FPAs): https://pexapark.com/pexapark-renewables-market-outlook-2026/ 
• 214. Grid Resilience: hot risks, cold solutions - Feb26 02.02.2026 29min

  Resilience is the buzzword of the moment—from Gerard’s personal resilience on display in Davos last week to the critical issue of grid resilience.  The great Doug Houseman draws a useful distinction between reliability and resilience. “Reliability is about how well you keep the lights on, while resilience is about how quickly you can restore power after an outage.”  Over the past year, blackouts caused by extreme weather, human error, and physical attacks have exposed an uncomfortable truth: electricity is no longer invisible background infrastructure. It is the backbone of modern society, and when it fails, everything else quickly follows.  To explore these challenges, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Ronny Fiuren, one of the Nordics’ sharpest thinkers on energy. Ronny is the Founder of Mylicia Energy, an executive board member, and a strategic business developer with deep expertise in power markets, energy flexibility, and grid-oriented solutions.  Together, they discuss why resilience has evolved from a technical afterthought into a strategic priority, and what recent events across Europe and North America are really telling us about the condition of our power grids.  The conversation examines how decentralisation, flexibility, and the use of advanced technologies and AI matter more than ever. It also highlights the need for a shift in mindset, not only among grid operators but also regulators.  They explore the value of interconnectors in strengthening power systems, while also unpacking their political dimensions and the strong public emotions that can emerge when electricity prices rise suddenly.  Beyond weather-related disruptions and cyber threats, the discussion turns to new risks such as deliberate sabotage and how energy systems can be designed to cope with them.  From Scandinavia to the rest of Europe, this is a timely conversation about how to build power systems capable of withstanding shocks in an increasingly electrified and digital world.----Read Ember Europe Electricity Review  https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2026/
• 213. Big Funds, Bigger Bets: Inside Infrastructure’s Power Shift - Jan26 26.01.2026 30min

  The infrastructure fund industry has become one of the most powerful engines behind the rise of renewables and datacenters. With Zak Bentley, Americas Editor, Infrastructure Investor (part of the PEI Group), Laurent and Gerard cut through the noise to deliver a clear-eyed view of where the infrastructure market really stands today.  2025 smashed fundraising records, with c.USD300bn raised, but it also laid bare an uncomfortable truth: this is a market in consolidation mode. Capital is concentrating fast, and the biggest platforms are pulling further ahead.  Global Infrastructure Partners set a new benchmark with its USD25.2bn Fund V, the largest infrastructure fund ever raised. Macquarie closed more than USD8bn for Infrastructure Partners VI, including co-investments, while Blackstone raised USD5.5bn for Strategic Partners Infrastructure IV, the largest infrastructure secondaries fund to date. Brookfield, KKR, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, and Ardian were also among the clear winners. Scale matters, and the leaders are taking an ever-larger share of the pie.  Fundraising may look healthier on the surface, but the process has become longer and harder. Time on the road has stretched to around 25 months, meaning a large portion of the capital “raised” in 2025 was secured across 2023 and 2024. This is not a detail; it is the clearest symptom of the barbell dynamic now dominating infrastructure fundraising, where capital flows either to the very largest platforms or to highly differentiated specialists.  Sector trends are also evolving. Airports and toll roads, written off after COVID, are back in favour. Social infrastructure is fading. ESG has been reset, not abandoned, and gas infrastructure is once again being embraced, often relabelled as energy transition to make it palatable. Datacenters sit at the centre of everything, hoovering up capital and pulling renewables and grid infrastructure along with them.  The discussion goes straight at the hard questions: are genuinely new sectors emerging, can today’s giants realistically keep getting bigger, and is there still room for ultra-specialised strategies? The answer is increasingly clear. Bigger is not automatically better. Investors are becoming far more selective, and many are shifting capital toward focused, mid-market funds that offer expertise rather than sheer scale.  -----Berlin Infrastructure Conference – 24 to 27/3https://www.peievents.com/en/checkout/?peievcc-event-id=113021    Link to Nat Bullard – 200 pages yearly deck https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations      
• 212. Heat Pumps rise again - Jan26 19.01.2026 31min

  Heat pumps sit at the heart of Europe’s strategy to cut emissions and reduce dependence on imported gas. Under the EU’s REPowerEU plan, the bloc is targeting 60 million heat pumps by 2030. By the end of 2025, almost 30 million units were already installed — progress, but still only halfway to the goal.Gerard and Laurent are joined by Paul Kenny, Director General of the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), to unpack why adoption has surged in countries such as Japan, Scandinavia and parts of the US, while many European markets continue to lag.After a strong year in 2022, European heat pump sales slowed in 2023 and 2024 amid high upfront costs, a shortage of qualified installers, weaker policy support and an unfavourable price relationship between gas and electricity. Paul explains why confidence is returning in 2025, with 1m heat pumps sold across 13 European countries in the first half of 2025, a 9% increase on 2024.We also look beyond residential heating to the rapid rise of industrial heat pumps, which could become a major decarbonisation tool for sectors requiring heat below 200°C, including food processing and pharmaceuticals. The conversation explores how heat pumps can add flexibility to the power system, in some cases reducing the need for battery storage, and why data centre heat management is emerging as a key new application.As the leading voice of Europe’s heat pump industry, EHPA is working to make heat pumps the preferred technology for sustainable heating and cooling — strengthening Europe’s competitiveness, resilience and energy security in the process.-----At Redefining Energy, we are excited to be part of International Energy Week, where some of the biggest names in global energy come together for a packed agenda tackling the ideas, technologies, and policies shaping the future. ENGIE's CEO Catherine MacGregor will be speaking, as well as IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol and Shell's CEO Wael Sawan.  Join us there and get 20% off your ticket with the promo code REIEWEEK20. https://www.ieweek.co.uk/--Finally, Gerard and Laurent are invited by Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford university and an energy policy expert, for a live session at Oriel College in Oxford on 25/2/26.