The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

Episodet

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  #101 South Africa's budget windfall is real. So is the discipline behind it 19.08.2026 8min

  A R30 billion tax surprise in June, driven by mining royalties, has put South Africa's fiscal turnaround back in the spotlight. Adam Furlan argues the real story isn't the windfall, it's what Treasury does with it: two straight years of primary surpluses and a coming fiscal rule point to an improving credit story that bond markets haven't fully priced in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #100 Nvidia is cheaper than the S&P 500. Someone is wrong. 13.08.2026 11min

  The AI debate has moved past valuation and onto something harder to price: whether record capex converts into durable cash flow. From SpaceX's post-IPO wobble to China's cheaper models and the sector's circular financing, Anton du Plooy makes the case for why stock selection, not conviction on AI as a trade, will separate winners from losers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #99 AI's listing boom could end two decades of US equity tailwinds 11.08.2026 13min

  For 20 years, buybacks and shrinking share counts boosted US equity returns. Sahil Mahtani argues that AI-driven IPOs and secondary issuance are set to reverse that trend, potentially dragging returns down. He draws a parallel to EMs in the 2010s, where a similar issuance wave eroded returns, but says that headwind for EMs is fading just as it builds in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #98 A coordinated yen rescue can't fix Japan's real rate problem 05.08.2026 9min

  Jason Borbora-Sheen unpacks the first coordinated US-Japan currency intervention since 1998 and why a stronger yen won't hold unless Japan's real rates move. He argues the bigger signal is a global rate cycle that may be settling higher than markets expect, and explains how that's shaping a cautious stance in fixed income. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #97 The Fed's new chair just showed markets he'd rather they guess 30.07.2026 6min

  The US Federal Reserve held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, but three dissents and a chair who won't give forward guidance left bond markets more unsettled than the decision itself. John Stopford explains why the confusion matters more than the vote, and what it means for positioning across bonds and equities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #96 After SARB surprises, all eyes turn to hawkish Fed 28.07.2026 10min

  The SARB's split decision to leave the repo rate at 7% caught almost every economist off guard, but Ruen Naidu argues the central bank's own scenario analysis tells a more nuanced story. He unpacks why a lower-for-now stance doesn't mean a dovish central bank, and sets out what the Fed's own hawkish pivot under its new chair means for global bond markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #95 Two scoreboards: why SA credit holds up while the economy limps 20.07.2026 8min

  SA corporate credit holds up even as GDP growth stalls and inflation risk builds. Stephen Naidoo explains why strong technicals, not improving fundamentals, are driving the market, and why that gap demands a more conservative, quality-first approach rather than complacency. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #94 Growth is no longer the enemy: inside Warsh's Fed 17.07.2026 11min

  Kevin Warsh has chaired his first Fed meeting and testified to Congress, but is he simply doing Trump's bidding? Philip Saunders doesn't think so. He makes sense of Warsh's push to challenge Fed groupthink, why productivity and the AI boom could lift US growth well above conventional estimates, and what it means for inflation, interest rates and the dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #93 South African value is priced like a distress sale, and the bond market disagrees 13.07.2026 23min

  John Biccard argues that South African equities have become disconnected from the country's own improving bond market. He points to retail names trading at deep discounts to intrinsic value, a first move into global technology after a brutal software sell-off, and a patient multi-year bet on a spirits recovery. In short: buy what's hated, hold through the discomfort, and let the turning point do the work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #92 Beyond the index giants: the case for active EM 03.07.2026 12min

  After a blistering 18 months for emerging market equities at an index level, the concentration risk has now become a concern for many. Portfolio Manager Varun Laijawalla argues that beneath the headlines is a story of a wider opportunity set from which an active portfolio could benefit.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #91 The dollar's reversal: from debasement fears to strength 30.06.2026 8min

  After widespread expectations in 2025 of a structural dollar bear market, conditions appear to have shifted in 2026. The greenback's status as the world's reserve currency has strengthened over the past year, with the Dollar Index recording a modest, though not significant, gain. But is it simply a case of safe-haven buying at the outset of the conflict with Iran, combined with the prospect of higher inflation supporting tighter US monetary policy? Portfolio Manager Jason Borbora-Sheen examines the range of factors currently influencing the US dollar, including the stance and potential actions of a US Federal Reserve under the stewardship of a new Chair. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #90 Oil is falling, but South Africa's inflation fight is far from over 23.06.2026 6min

  Oil prices have pulled back sharply from their peak, but Vivienne Taberer warns that the relief may come too late to spare South African consumers further pain. With the SARB watching closely for signs that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, more rate hikes may well be on the table before any cuts return. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #89 Peace plan, messy reality: commodities after Iran deal 17.06.2026 14min

  The interim Iran peace plan has sent oil sharply lower, but the more interesting questions lie elsewhere. From gold's structural demand story to copper's confounding surplus, coal supply disruptions, and the fertilizer shock still working through the system, George Cheveley walks through why he believes the market is moving too fast to declare the crisis resolved. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #88 When the rule book no longer applies 11.06.2026 11min

  AI is reshaping the US economy in ways that confound historical precedent. Philip Saunders makes sense of a market landscape where growth is real but uneven, inflation risks are manageable but not absent, and the old playbook may no longer be enough. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #87 The $1.75 trillion question: an IPO that could change everything 05.06.2026 13min

  The SpaceX IPO is just the opening act. With Anthropic and OpenAI close behind, Anton du Plooy considers what a wave of trillion-dollar listings means for markets, and for the investors who have to decide what to do about them. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #86 Holding its nerve: how SA is weathering the oil shock 04.06.2026 12min

  The Strait of Hormuz closure has rattled global energy markets, but South Africa is weathering the shock better than many expected. Ruen Naidu explains what the Moody's outlook upgrade signals, why the rand has held up, and how long South Africa can absorb persistently elevated oil prices. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #85 A 4% wake-up call: reading the SARB's next move 21.05.2026 6min

  A supply shock has shifted the inflation picture, and the SARB's next move matters. Adam Furlan discusses the case for early action, the risk of second-round effects, and why Ninety One remains cautious on duration at the front end of the curve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #84 Beyond the index: why concentration risk may be active management's biggest opportunity 19.05.2026 11min

  Markets are more concentrated than ever, and that changes the equation for investors. Siobhan Simpson uncovers the risks beneath the surface of major indices, from the Magnificent Seven to precious metals dominating the JSE, and explains why these conditions may be creating some of the most compelling opportunities for active management in years. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #83 A very tight strait. Can oil get to $150? 18.05.2026 12min

  With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded and global oil inventories drawing down fast, the oil market is approaching a critical inflection point. Paul Gooden cuts through the geopolitical noise to explain the supply-and-demand dynamics at play, what the numbers actually mean for oil prices, and why equity investors are more cautious than you might expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  #82 Who really controls the Fed? 08.05.2026 9min

  The battle between the White House and the world's most powerful central bank isn't just political theatre. It has real consequences for markets, inflation, and the credibility of independent monetary policy. Ruen Naidu explains what Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed chair really means, and why the outcome matters far beyond Washington. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.