The Macro Trading Floor

ตอน

• The Rebasement Trade 26.06.2026 30นาที

  Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?
• The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options 22.05.2026 37นาที

  To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the best risk/reward ways to position for the macro environment ahead of us. They then deep dive into option structures around gold, and the question of increasing sample size of trades to reduce PnL variance against the risk of downgrading your edge and expected value per trade when the sample size increases.
• Process, Process, Process 15.05.2026 33นาที

  To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on various aspects of their investment/risk management process. They discuss several ideas and how to implement them according to their framework: when to use options? How to think about convexity?
• Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World 08.05.2026 33นาที

  To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU in negotiation phase, how the world might look like when Hormuz reopens, the Japanese FX intervention and more.
• New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What? 17.04.2026 37นาที

  To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and equity markets for the foreseeable future.
• Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis 10.04.2026 33นาที

  To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as a short-term oriented trader or as a long-term focused macro investor.
• How To Trade Macro In A War 20.03.2026 33นาที

  Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the war could unfold from here.
• Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock 06.03.2026 37นาที

  Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what framework can be used to trade such a market environment,
• The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market 30.01.2026 37นาที

  To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair could shape the US policy making objective in the bond market. The repercussions on the USD and on the incentive schemes for other large bond market players (e.g. Japanese investors) are not to be underestimated.
• US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative? 23.01.2026 37นาที

  To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action which coincided with the tariff threats. Now that the TACO is here, the real question is: will this episode encourage global pension funds to hedge their gigantic USD exposure?
• Japanese Macro Tails 16.01.2026 36นาที

  To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and long-term macro: is the MoF ready to intervene? How do you trade these policymaker-induced setups? And in the long-run, will the market keep punishing the JPY and long-end bonds or will the Bank of Japan turn hawkish and surprise the market?
• The Everything SuperCycle? 09.01.2026 37นาที

  To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro asset class under the sun: equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. The duo also talks about the reaction function of the Fed, and a few idiosyncratic ideas.
• More Pain Ahead Or Buy The Dip? 23.11.2025 30นาที

  The Nasdaq has now sold off nearly 10% from the highs, and the pain in momentum assets is even more severe. Alf and Brent discuss whether there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead, or this is the time to step in and buy the dip.
• ''Run It Hot'': The Comeback? 14.11.2025 28นาที

  Alf and Brent discuss the resurgence of the ''run it hot'' trade: Trump floating around new fiscal stimulus and government reopening odds seem to have revived the trade. How to best approach markets going forward? Want to reach out to Alf or Brent? Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg chat, or alf@themacrocompass.com Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg chat, or bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com
• We Have A Deal: Now What? 31.10.2025 31นาที

  Alf and Brent discuss the market reaction to the ''deal'' between Trump and Xi: what happens next? The duo also covers the Fed and BoJ decisions, the state of the AI trade, and the Supreme Court hearings on tariffs starting next week.
• Momentum Shock: What Next For Markets? 23.10.2025 29นาที

  Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: ⁠TMTF Trade Of The Week Alf and Brent discuss the vicious momentum unwind which took down precious metals and various speculative stock market sectors: what should we expect now? The duo also discusses the upcoming US CPI, and take a step back to assess the big picture macro setup we will likely face for the next 6-9 months.
• Gold & Cockroaches 17.10.2025 31นาที

  Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: TMTF Trade Of The Week In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the massive rally in precious metals: what's behind it? Is it a broad debasement theme or just a big momentum trade? And is Dimon right when he talks about more cockroaches in credit markets?
• Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst? 10.10.2025 35นาที

  Alf and Brent discuss the massive AI-driven rally which is beginning to have strong implications for broader markets and the economy. Brent presents the consensus view from several hedge fund PMs he met in Singapore - are they riding the bubble or afraid it's going to burst soon? And what about bonds, gold, and the USD?
• Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next? 06.09.2025 33นาที

  Alf and Brent discuss the recent NFP print and its implications for markets. They also reflect on the right framework to apply to RSI and options when dealing with asset classes having skewed return distributions.
• The Truth Behind Fiscal Dominance 29.08.2025 29นาที

  Alf and Brent discuss the latest attempt from Trump to gain more control over the Fed, and the implications this might have on multiple asset classes. They also discuss the JPY and the political situation in France.