Shield of the Republic

The Never-ending Iran Negotiations 01.06.2026 38хв

Eliot joins Eric from the shores of Lake Champlain to break down the latest administration jackassery before pivoting to the ongoing negotiations with Iran. They also discuss Russia's recent drone and missile barrage directed at Kyiv which included an Oreshnik missile capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads. Eric outlines his new CSBA monograph on nuclear command, control, and communications in the context of deterring both Russia and China as nuclear peers. To close out the show, Eric provides commentary on the Kenyan government's rejection of US efforts to open a quarantine facility for Americans who have contracted Ebola, John Cornyn's primary loss, and the prospects for the administration's Cuba policy.Eric's Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications Monograph:https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/CSBA8429_(Three_Body_Problem_Report)_final.pdfEliot's Latest in The Atlantic (Gift Link):https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/words-war/687343/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPvaB1GNTRUB7dNFTvrxKF_o&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Trump's Regime Change Plan for Cuba 25.05.2026 1год 8хв

Eliot and Eric discuss the current state of the Iran negotiations, the apparent US-Israeli plan to install Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a Delcy Rodríguez-type figure early in the war, and Reuters' report on the ongoing hollowing out of U.S. diplomacy. They assess Trump's apparent designs in Cuba, noting the indictment of Raul Castro, and the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group to the Caribbean. Finally, they touch on Turkey's deepening fall into authoritarianism and Putin's visit to Beijing before turning to guest Marc Bennetts, journalist and author of THE DESCENT: Witnessing Russia's Spiral Into Madness Under Putin.The Descent: Witnessing Russia's Spiral into Madness Under Putin:https://a.co/d/01fuFsvuInside the Unravelling of US Diplomacy Under Trump:https://www.reuters.com/investigations/inside-unraveling-us-diplomacy-under-trump-2026-05-21/Early War Goal Was to Install Hard-Line Former President as Iran’s Leader:https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.htmlShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Ending the War Will Require Force 18.05.2026 1год 6хв

Eric and Eliot survey a wide range of jackassery, highlighting Trump's bizarre attack on longtime Mitch McConnell aide Robert Karem. They discuss Trump's gross mismanagement of the Department of Defense as exemplified by the US Army budget shortfall due to National Guard deployments to US cities and the border. They debate the intelligence community's leaked assessment of Iran's surviving missile and launcher capabilities and what advice they would give to a hypothetical "normal" administration on how to successfully extricate from Iran. They also review the Trump-Xi Summit in China, assess trump's designs on Cuba, and discuss the broader implications of Turkey's newly unveiled ICBM.Eric on the Reagan Defense Build Up (Gift Link):https://thedispatch.com/next-250/peace-through-strength-reagan-250/?gift_key=e0d7f3be6686eb5a&gift_ref=3886671&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_linkEric on Turkey's New ICBM:https://www.thebulwark.com/p/turkey-new-missile-is-a-symbol-of-gobal-chaos-erdogan-yildirimhan-icbm-saha-trump-europe-russia-ukraine-iran-israel-natoShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Trump is Destroying Our Diplomatic Corps 11.05.2026 58хв

Eric and Eliot lament the firing of 200 Foreign Service officers and the recent large-scale exodus of senior diplomats from public service. They discuss the impact of the Trump Administration's diplomatic malpractice including the handling of Operation Freedom and their own disagreements about it. They assess the likely costs of ensuring Iran is not left in control of the Strait of Hormuz and the inevitable long-term future US presence in the Persian Gulf. They also consider the impact of the UK local elections and the collapse of support for Keir Starmer's Labour Party. Finally, they address the US troop withdrawals from Germany and Vladimir Putin's worsening political, economic, and personal situation.Eric & Frank Miller on Withdrawing From Germany:https://www.thebulwark.com/p/withdrawing-troops-from-germany-is-own-goal-trump-merz-natoSecretary Hegseth's Defense Budget Video:https://x.com/SecWar/status/2052396775797891417?s=20Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Pete Hegseth’s Long War Disaster 04.05.2026 50хв

Eric and Eliot discuss Pete Hegseth's job security amidst the ongoing war with Iran. They recap his contemptuous testimony at a House Armed Services Committee budget hearing and Vice President Vance's efforts to distance himself from the war through planted stories. They then turn to King Charles III and Queen Camilla's visit to the United States and review the King's speech to a joint session of Congress. Finally, they discuss recent military developments in southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah's fiber-optic drone capabilities that highlight the changing nature of war.Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Can Iran Take More Pain Than Us? 27.04.2026 58хв

Eric and Eliot review an extended buffet of jackassery before turning to the current state of affairs in Iran. They assess the prospects for a negotiated settlement to the war, and whether we could end up in a "no war, no peace" situation. They also discuss the mutual incomprehension that leaders in both countries exhibit regarding the interests and intentions of the other, Iran's new collective leadership in the wake of Ali Khamenei's death, and the structural similarity to the situation faced by Soviet leaders after the death of Stalin. Finally, they respond to reports that the administration is considering deporting to the Democratic Republic of the Congo roughly eleven hundred Afghans in Qatar who were evacuated in 2021 amidst the US withdrawal.Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot's Return & Schrodinger's Strait 20.04.2026 1год 8хв

Eric welcomes Eliot back from his sojourn in Spain to break down the latest jackassery from the administration. They discuss the current state of the Iran war, including the somehow simultaneously open and closed Strait of Hormuz, the ongoing negotiations, and how China factors into the conflict. Turning to Europe, they assess Viktor Orban’s electoral defeat in Hungary and the blow it strikes against Trump, Vance, MAGA, and the European right writ large. The conversation also covers the U.S.’s diminishing support for Ukraine and the battlefield situation amidst Russia’s spring offensive. They wrap up with thoughts about the broader European reaction to Trump’s continued threat to withdraw from NATO and Trump’s architectural plans for the nation’s capital.Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Trump's Path of Destruction (w/ Mona Charen) 12.04.2026 57хв

Eric welcomes The Bulwark's own Mona Charen back to the show to discuss the week's developments. They cover the President's meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the Vice President's trip to Hungary before pivoting to Vance's new diplomatic assignment to negotiate an end to the war with Iran. They assess the potential impact on Vance's political aspirations and the splits in MAGA world over the war. They also discuss the role Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu played in persuading Trump to go to war and the catastrophic damage that Bibi has done to Israel's support in the U.S. Finally, they examine the Trump administration's hostility to Catholicism and rebuke recent comparisons between presidents Trump & Reagan.Eric's Latest in The Dispatch:https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-threats-abandon-nato/Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

The Cost of Boots on the Ground (w/ Mike Nelson) 06.04.2026 1год

Eric welcomes retired U.S. Army Special Forces officer, and Penn Washington's Chief of Staff and Director of Communications, Mike Nelson to the show. They discuss the President's White House speech to sell the Iran war to the American people, and its failure to address a number of important questions. They discuss Mike's recent Dispatch article on the risks and benefits of different proposed courses of action for U.S. military forces on the ground in Iran, including the difficulties surrounding any mission to extricate the regime's remaining Highly Enriched Uranium, the potential risks to forces of seizing Kharg Island, the prospect for seizing the smaller islands like Abu Musa, the Tunbs, or Larak, and whether or not the juice would be worth the squeeze in providing an off-ramp to end the war. Finally, they address both the legality and advisability of attacks on Iranian infrastructure and how the Iranians might react to such a campaign.What a Ground Operation Might Look Like in Iran (Gift Link):https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-iran-ground-invasion-kharg-uranium-hormuz/?gift_key=38f86079ed7f33cb&gift_ref=3886671&utm_source=giftlink&utm_medium=copy_link&utm_campaign=membergiftShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Trump Needs Approval for This War (w/ Michael O'Hanlon) | Shield of the Republic 30.03.2026 59хв

Eric welcomes Michael O'Hanlon, the Philip Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution, and author of To Dare Mighty Things, and a recent op-ed in the Financial Times on the Trump administration's $200 billion supplemental budget request to fund the Iran War. They discuss whether there is a unique American "way of war" or "way of strategy," and the accomplishments of U.S. grand and defense strategies in the post-World War II era and whether Trump is undoing those achievements. They also examine why limited force operations are sometimes hard to avoid, and the role of American pragmatism and innovation in allowing the U.S. to successfully adapt under fire on the battlefield. They close with a conversation about Congress's role in setting defense strategy and the role it could play in setting limits to "boots on the ground" in Iran and investing in the defense industrial base to increase its productive capacity to replenish the enormous stocks of precision munitions and missiles that have been expended in the war.Congress must not give Trump a blank cheque for the Iran war (Gift Link):https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/ce6a9f97-9f47-414b-856b-ab82972c6c20To Dare Mighty Things: U.S. Defense Strategy Since the Revolution:https://www.amazon.com/Dare-Mighty-Things-Strategy-Revolution/dp/0300279930

Iran and the Roots of Islamist Terror (w/ Jason Burke) 23.03.2026 58хв

Eric and Eliot open by analyzing the decapitation campaign against Iran's leadership, the knock-on consequences of the war's energy disruptions, and the Gulf states' reaction to the war. They also explore how the PRC will incorporate lessons from the war, and how depleted U.S. munitions stocks will be refilled. They then turn to special guest Jason Burke, author and longtime national security correspondent at The Guardian. They discuss Jason's effort to explain the origins of contemporary Islamist terrorism in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the role technology played in the evolution of terrorism, and the transition from secular to religious terrorism in the twentieth century.The Revolutionists: The Story of the Extremists Who Hijacked the 1970s:https://a.co/d/09FMRU7UShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

How Does The Iran War End? 15.03.2026 1год 2хв

Eric and Eliot continue to wrestle with the ongoing Iran war, examining the media coverage surrounding it, the tactical successes the joint forces have had, the inexplicable failure to provide counter-drone defense to US forces, the baffling inattention to mine storage facilities that may have led to mines being seeded in the Gulf, and the enormous expenditure of munitions that may leave the US vulnerable if military operations were required in other theaters. They also discuss how the war might be concluded, likely downstream consequences, and the prospect that President Trump may shift his focus to Cuba, where President Diaz-Canel has confirmed that quiet negotiations with the US have been going on for some time.Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic on Air Campaigns (Gift Link):https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/03/air-campaign-military-primer/686294/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPqEbYdfKy52g6Ojp5VlDiRo&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Iran's Regional War Strategy is Failing (w/ Norman Roule) 09.03.2026 47хв

Eric and Eliot welcome Norman Roule, a non-resident senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a thirty-four-year career veteran of the U.S. intelligence community, where he served in the Directorate of Operations as a division chief and chief of station, and for nearly a decade as the national intelligence manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). They discuss Trump's effort to replicate his Venezuela playbook and the search for an Iranian Delcy Rodríguez, the intricacies of the Iranian succession, and the potential for the regular army (ARTESH) to step in and seize leadership of the country. The conversation also covers the IRGC's hold on the system in Iran, the sources of Iran's misreading of the regional situation and of Donald Trump, the failure of Iran's alliances to come to the rescue, and the nature of Iran as an intelligence target.Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic (Gift Link):https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/trump-iran-war-confusion/686259/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPq02AwLxoJbONMjAocns7uo&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Trump's Iran Gamble 05.03.2026 37хв

NOTE: This episode was recorded on Monday, March 2, 2026.Eric and Eliot assess where the US and Israel stand in the current war with Iran and identify the downside risks while acknowledging the world is a better place with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. They weigh the prospects for success against some of the darker possibilities, discuss the internal situation in Iran, and examine Israel’s role in the operation.Eliot’s Latest in the Atlantic:America’s Invaluable Ally:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/americas-invaluable-ally/686205/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPo_i9WWeAapCb1_ocSZQ-ag&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareTrump Rolls the Iron Dice:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/trump-rolls-iron-dice-iran/686199/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPiz9hFl3HmKfcY7OSD7I258&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

China Is Ready For War. We Aren't. (w/ Seth Jones) 02.03.2026 1год 8хв

NOTE: This episode was recorded before the attack on Iran.Eric and Eliot review the State of the Union and discuss Eliot’s Atlantic article on the degradation of American political rhetoric. They criticize the President’s failure to make a case for military action in Iran and discuss the potential for the operation to go sideways quickly. They also cover the outbreak of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Pentagon’s declaration of war on Anthropic. They then turn to returning guest Seth Jones, President of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance. They examine consolidation within the defense industrial base, the scale of Chinese military-industrial production, the convoluted U.S. procurement system, and lessons about munitions consumption from the war in Ukraine.The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance: https://a.co/d/0bkXEhfoEliot on the State of the Union: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/cooper-union-state-union/686149/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPlUvaCAbledQrfoRDY_9QJU&utm_Frank Kendall on The Pentagon v Anthropic: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/opinion/anthropic-pentagon-ai-defense.html?unlocked_article_code=1.PVA.40eZ.6OQb5YZlIGOe&smid=url-shareAnthropic Statement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-warShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

On The Precipice of Illegal War (w/ Frank Dikötter) 23.02.2026 1год 7хв

Eric and Eliot debate the merits and deficiencies of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s attempt to present “Trumpism with a human face” at the Munich Security Conference before turning to the dilemmas Trump faces in Iran. They discuss the administration’s uncertain strategic objective, the failure to consult Congress and the public, and the potential for a much longer military engagement than Trump is accustomed to. In the second half of the show, they welcome Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Frank Dikötter to discuss his newly published book, Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity. They explore the weakness of the communist movement before World War II; the extensive role Soviet support played in sustaining it and in equipping and training what would become the People’s Liberation Army; the deep Stalinist ideological impact on the party; and the extraordinary violence and barbarity the CCP inflicted on the Chinese populace in the territories it occupied.Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity:https://a.co/d/0d3ozDuBEliot on Marco Rubio's Munich Speech (Gift Link):https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/marco-rubio-munich/686025/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPv8cuxRM97HlBS7AWRa8x2QShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Arms Control is Dead 16.02.2026 58хв

Eric and Eliot begin with a buffet of administration jackassery before pivoting to a preview of the Munich Security Conference. They discuss Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Bridge Colby's remarks, as well as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's speech highlighting the importance of transatlantic ties. They also examine the New START treaty's recent lapse and the future of arms control, the prospect for additional U.S. strikes on Iran, and the apparent shutdown of Russian Starlink terminals. They conclude with a discussion of the ongoing international fallout from the Epstein affair and his many unexplained Russian connections.Eric and Frank Miller's Latest on New START:https://thedispatch.com/article/new-start-expiration-russia-united-states-nuclear-program/Eric and Frank Miller on NATO:https://www.nationalreview.com/2026/01/natos-not-dead/Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

The Crisis Facing Our Military (w/ Kori Schake) 09.02.2026 57хв

Eric and Eliot welcome back friend of the show Kori Schake, Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, to discuss her new book, The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States. They explore Kori’s critique of Samuel Huntington’s canonical study, The Soldier and the State, examine George Washington’s consequential resignation of his commission before the Continental Congress, and discuss the role of charismatic but unhinged military figures in American politics, as well as the relationship between civilians and military officers when executing orders. The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States:https://a.co/d/0biIePiPThe Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil–Military Relations:https://a.co/d/0dsgKaLrShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

America's New Defense Strategy is Nonsense 02.02.2026 56хв

Eric and Eliot discuss Trump’s latest reversals on Greenland before pivoting to the recently released National Defense Strategy. They dissect the many flaws of the NDS, including North Korean–style adoration for the President, a lack of explanation for how its stated goals would be achieved, and the total omission of Taiwan. The two also speculate about how Xi Jinping’s recent purge of General Zhang Youxia could impact the Indo-Pacific in the near future, before closing with an assessment of whether Trump is on the cusp of military action against Iran.Eric on the National Defense Strategy:https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-national-defense-strategy-europe-china-homeland/Eliot on the National Defense Strategy:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/unserious-national-defense-strategy/685784/Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

How Evil Regimes Cling to Power (w/ Stephen Kotkin) 26.01.2026 59хв

Eric and Eliot welcome Stephen Kotkin, professor emeritus of history at Princeton University and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman-Spogli Institute. They discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians?” Kotkin explores the frailty and resilience of authoritarian regimes through the lens of recent events in Venezuela and Iran, as well as the rise of Russia and China as authoritarian powers. They also discuss potential alternative future paths for Russia and turn to the current authoritarian temptation in the United States, along with the historic reasons for optimism that American democracy is robust enough to weather the depredations of the Trump administration. Eliot’s Latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-greenland-europe-nato/685720/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPgGy7Ja9UMv_dSH1wXC41Rk&utm_ The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians?: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/weakness-strongmen-stephen-kotkin The Five Futures of Russia: And How America Can Prepare for Whatever Comes Next: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928: https://a.co/d/40CsvHC Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941: https://a.co/d/6IQt4nR Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.