The Trans Tasman Pol Pod

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 17 29.05.2026 20m

Well there's only been one big story this week of course – Nicola Willis' 3rd budget. Willis is just a step away from Ruth Richardson in her attacks on the machinery of the state and the well being of the down trodden, as she attempts to “balance the books.” There were a few changes on the tax front – and a new tax/levy, much to the disgust of those who expected Willis to stick with her no new taxes policy. But the changes made, although minor from a revenue gathering point of view, were significant in their own way. Joining me to discuss those is Professor of taxation at Auckland University, Craig Eliffe:

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 126 21.05.2026 15m

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has delivered a pre-Budget speech launching a new blast of austerity described as “public service reform.” This will involve slashing the number of Government agencies, cutting thousands more public sector jobs and boosting the use of AI. Winston Peters is working hard to put NZ First in pole position for when the campaign proper kicks off in October, with the announcement of several significant policy initiatives – KiwiSaver from birth for all New Zealanders, and the purchase of the BNZ from its Australian owners, to merge it with KiwiBank. Three polls in a row have now shown National with support at the critical 30% level or below, with the Roy Morgan sample putting the party at around 25%. It continues to leach support to NZ First in particular. Winston Peters and David Seymour have both tried to outdo each other with their anti migrant policies in recent weeks, now National, which has been leaching support to its minor coalition partners is doing the same, just without the vehemence and vindictiveness of ACT and NZ First. And we're joined this week by Auckland University Economist Emeritus Professor Tim Hazledine, who's not too convinced by Winston Peters' plan to buy the BNZ and merge it with KiwiBank.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 15 14.05.2026 18m

The latest set of polls to emerge shows voters aren't really sure of their opinions as the election approaches. The Government has provided details of changes to the Fuel Response Plan following what it calls extensive consultation and engagement with business and industry, and other stakeholders. Finance Minister Nicola Willis says the priority is to ensure the country continues to have sufficient fuel supply so “we never need to implement restrictive fuel savings measures.” The OECD, has released its 2026 report on New Zealand’s economy. It blows hot and cold, with some aspects of the Government’s programme getting the thumbs up, and others not cutting the mustard. The report picks out the ageing population and energy supply as the biggest concerns, while arguing the tax system is holding productive investments back by encouraging investment in housing above productive assets. In another blow for the steadily disintegrating Te Pāti Māori, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi is quitting and forming her own party. She says she believes other colleagues will also leave the party before the election telling The Hui she believes they’ll create a network of independent Māori MPs answering to their electorates, not a central political machine. And we're joined by Professor Robert MacCulloch from Auckland University, who is concerned the Government is set to ignore the key findings of the OECD's report on the New Zealand economy.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 14 11.05.2026 13m

The Herald's Poll of Polls research has been gushing about the margin of victory the right will achieve on November 7, suggesting the current coalition Government will be returned to power. The research however shows the parties of this current coalition will have the numbers to form a Government, if in fact they can, not that the coalition as it stands will govern again. Labour, the Greens and other environmental groups lined up to take potshots at the Government's Conservation Amendment Bill, which Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says will allow faster decisions, more jobs, at the same time as providing stronger protection for nature. The Government has confirmed it will scrap the fees-free university scheme, after 2026. Nicola Willis was put in an uncomfortable position on the Budget measure after Winston Peter revealed it, calling it a Budget leak. The Government's decision to scrap the Broadcasting Standards Authority has merit, but it also carries barbs – self regulation is not always effective and the lack of a statutory body to look at complaints and deliver remedies may result in more concerned citizens being forced to use the courts as a last resort. And we're joined by Labour's Conservation spokeswoman Priyanca Rhadakrishnan to talk about the Conservation Amendment Bill.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 13 01.05.2026 17m

There's much speculation about whether the coalition can survive until November – it's likely it will, but internal pressure is building, with Winston Peters at the centre of it as he tries to differentiate himself from what he sees as a weak and failing administration. A new report from right wing think tank The New Zealand Initiative warns while the Government’s 2025 Defence Capability Plan commits $12bn over four years, including $9bn of new spending, new money risks being absorbed into a system too slow and fragmented to deliver modern capability without institutional reform. The National Party seems to have forgotten the first lesson in politics – don't attack the media. It appears to be using a minor incident at Parliament to throw a media wall up around the gaffe prone Prime Minister, keeping him away from tough set piece TV interviews. A new report from the left wing Helen Clark Foundation is warning the “country’s social fabric is fraying on almost every measure,” amid growing isolation, financial stress and institutional distrust. And we're joined this week by new Defence Minister Chris Penk, to talk about the future for the country's armed forces.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 12 24.04.2026 13m

Chris Luxon is nothing if not supremely confident, and he showed it this week, facing down dissent in his caucus with a self called leadership vote, which he won. MPs leaving the party’s caucus meeting on Tuesday refused to reveal the outcome of the vote, and Luxon told reporters he has the support of caucus, refusing to answer questions, and blaming media for creating a “soap opera.” New Zealand’s operations in waters off China as it pursues its UN sanctioned mission to police North Korean sanctions has put this country seriously offside with China. ACT will campaign to amend the Local Government Act to prohibit voting rights for unelected appointees on local council committees. ACT Leader David Seymour says “if you’re voting on council decisions, you should be accountable to the people paying the bills. That means facing free and frequent elections.” The India FTA will be signed in New Delhi next week. The agreement has the backing of the business sector, but NZ First is against it due to migration clauses it contains, while Labour, which has caved in and belatedly offered its support, is concerned over clauses which commit $30bn in investment from New Zealand to India. And to talk more about Chris Luxon's extraordinary move to initiate a caucus vote on his leadership and what it means going forward, I'm joined by political columnist Janet Wilson:

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 11 15.04.2026 17m

The Government went into overdrive to hype up the city deal it has agreed with Auckland, but Mayor Wayne Brown is less impressed, saying the best Auckland has achieved is it might prevent stupid ideas from being implemented by the Government. The Green Party says while it is relieved the cause of the recent 'boil water' notice in Auckland was easily addressed, more action is needed to deal with the regular and widespread contamination of drinking water elsewhere in the country. Emergency Management Minister Mark Mitchell and Chris Luxon again helped prove the Government has the chops in a crisis, with their calm and considered approach to the “cyclone” Vainunu situation. BusinessNZ and leaders across the export sector are calling on all political parties to back the India FTA, warning the country cannot afford to miss a major economic opportunity.Associate Education Minister David Seymour has been talking up the “success” of the Charter school programme he has championed. He's pushing data showing there are 1,471 students enrolled in 16 charter schools – a microscopic proportion of the close to 860,000 students enrolled in schools across the country. Te Pāti Māori has expressed deep concerns the Electoral (District Boundaries) Amendment Bill will restrict the representation of Māori roll voters until 2032 and beyond if it is not amended. And with the Iran war dragging on and the global situation more tense than it has been for years, foreign policy is a crucial issue. I'm joined now by Labour's Vanushi Walters, the party's Foreign affairs and intelligence agency spokeswoman:

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod episode 10 09.04.2026 17m

New Zealand has started to get involved in the Iran war at a diplomatic level, meeting with 40 other nations to try to get the Strait of Hormuz opened, while Winston Peters has been in the US talking with officials. The latest polls are still a depressing read for Chris Luxon, with National still mired below 30% support. The March Roy Morgan sample shows support for National dropped 4.5% to 26.5% - its lowest level of support since being elected in 2023, and potentially a 16 seat loss in the House. The latest Taxpayers Union Curia poll also has National below 30%, but up 1.4 points compared with last month to 29.8%. NZ First jumps 3.9 points to 13.6%, its highest ever level of support in this poll and 11% in the Roy Morgan.More than a year of tension between the Governments of this country and the Cook Islands, which began with the Cooks entering into an agreement with China without telling the New Zealand Government, appears to have been resolved with the signing of a Defence & Security Declaration between the two countries. ASB economists have warned the current Middle East crisis is set to add $55 a week to household living costs this year, in what is certain to be a big obstacle to this Government’s re-election plans. And we tap into the Reserve Bank's presentation on the OCR decision as Governor Anna Breman outlines what seems a very optimistic view of the inflation track.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod, Episode 9 01.04.2026 20m

The Government has further progressed its plan to deal with a fuel crisis if one eventuates. Meanwhile some economists are calling for diesel allocation to be prioritised now, so essential industry is not affected by what they say will inevitably be a shortage. They’re saying the fuel plan should be escalated immediately and early rationing will help ease what could be a serious crisis down the line. Despite global analysts declaring supplies could be sketchy after April 20, Prime Minister Luxon is calling on people not to worry, saying fuel deliveries are on schedule. The Government has taken the first major step in rebuilding the senior secondary qualifications system, with Cabinet agreeing after “consultation,” to the structure of a new qualification system to replace NCEA. Reserve Bank Chief Economist Paul Conway says this country’s cost-of-living challenge is ultimately about purchasing power – what people can buy with their incomes – not just how high prices are. He says the inflation surge during and after the pandemic pushed prices sharply higher, but while inflation has since eased from the highs of the pandemic, many people are still asking why things feel so expensive. The Iran War is of course continuing to dominate headlines, and while not everyone is fighting, we're all feeling the effects of it, with higher fuel prices the most obvious early source of pain, but high inflation, higher prices and perhaps even recession are expected to be part of the ongoing fallout. Now to talk about the war and its progress, I'm joined by Associate Professor of Global Studies at Auckland University, Chris Ogden:

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 8 25.03.2026 24m

Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Prime Minister Chris Luxon are trying to front foot the looming fuel crisis, hoping it may help revive National’s sliding credibility as an economic manager. Willis says Fitch Rating’s decision to place this country’s AA+ long-term credit rating on negative outlook “is a reminder of why fiscal discipline is so important,” and global economic volatility makes the Government’s programme of fiscal consolidation more important than ever. KiwiBank says latest GDP numbers showing a meagre 0.2% annual growth are not enough to encourage much hope for the uncertain recovery ahead. Winston Peters has announced some policy which indicates what National will have to accept to have him on the coalition benches after November. A wry smile of satisfaction likely creased the faces of tens of thousands of women when they heard Brooke Van Velden, gender traitor, nemesis of workers across the country, and seen as simply mean and vindictive, will step away from politics at the election. And as the election approaches the polls are tightening, but some trends remain – National trailing Labour, Chris Luxon’s popularity fading and the overwhelming feeling the country is heading in the wrong direction. Our guest this week is ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley who helps us delve into the effects of the Middle East conflict on our economy.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 7 18.03.2026 17m

The Government has established a Ministerial Group to oversee fuel security as it tries to navigate through what could be its most testing time since coming to office. Some analysts optimistically say the crisis gives the Government a chance to recover some of the credibility it has lost. But this would imply the Government has a workable plan to deal with the situation. At this stage it appears not to. Backing economists' claim of a nascent recovery, latest Stats NZ data on businesses shows the numbers are up across most of the measured criteria. The coalition took great delight in castigating Labour when the budget for the cancelled iRex project was forecast to blow out – it promised a cheaper alternative to be delivered on time and on budget. But documents obtained by The Post show the current cost estimate is now $1.867bn, already exceeding the $1.7bn Crown-tagged contingency approved by Cabinet a year ago. All eyes will be on Winston Peters to see whether the Rail Minister can actually deliver the project on time and on budget – odds are he can't. We're joined this time by Auckland University Emeritus professor of economics Basil Sharp, to discuss the current fuel crisis.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 6 11.03.2026 13m

Chris Luxon believes he and his Government are doing a good job, despite the evidence to the contrary, and that he will steer the coalition to another election victory. It’s not altogether impossible. If he really can withstand the pressure, the parties of the right are far from out of the race, with just a few points dividing the major ideological blocs. Economists are coming down on the side of caution for the Reserve Bank as Governor Anna Breman navigates her first major crisis in charge. There are fears of a big inflation spike due to the war in the Middle East, but the feeling among experts is the Bank will have to “look through” the short-term effects of the conflict and keep rates on hold. The rather pointless Covid Inquiry part 2 has reported back, and the saga can now be put to rest, with the Labour Government at the time getting a reasonable pass mark for its handling of the crisis. Of course, there were things which could have been done better. And to talk further about the concerns in the National Party following the latest poll and questions over Chris Luxon's ability to survive as leader, I'm joined by political analyst and columnist Janet Wilson.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 5 04.03.2026 18m

The Government is under fire for the nature of its response to the US-Israeli led attack on Iran, which is clearly against international law. The Government may soon start to feel the economic pressure as well if the conflict causes a spike in inflation. It may not be the Government's fault, but it will certainly have to take the blame. If the election is to be fought on fiscal credibility and economic management, the coalition is being sent a major warning in the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll. It shows 55% of voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, up 3 points since December, while only 28% say it is on the right track. The Government's overall performance rating has also rebounded from its record low in the previous survey but is still sub par. It is the only Government since 2017 not have had a rating above 5. The Government's quarterly action plans which were supposed to help drive the coalition's agenda and keep focus, appear to have been dropped. However, the plan idea is not quite dead. The Prime Minister's office says they're looking at a broader plan for the remainder of the year, which will be revealed in due course. Perhaps winning an election will be in it. And we're joined by Auckland University Associate Professor Maria Armoudian, a foreign policy expert, who'll help us try to understand why the US and Israel have started a new middle east war.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 4 25.02.2026 20m

The Government's legislating of new powers for police to force homeless people in city centres to “move on,” is being attacked from all sides. Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman is bullish on inflation coming down to within the Bank's 2-3% target zone over the next 12 months, but it appears the emphasis is on tightening. Ironically Penny Simmonds, the Environment Minister who has been MIA so far, was on hand to put her stamp of approval on the amalgamation of her Ministry into the new Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport (MCERT). While it was part of the National NZ First coalition agreement, and thus guaranteed to get Parliamentary time, the Bill to make English an official language was widely recognised as a waste of time and a joke. And I'm joined by Christchurch central Labour MP Duncan Webb, to talk about move on orders, and making English an official language.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 3 17.02.2026 21m

NZ First leader Winston Peters has put a stake firmly in the ground, with a call to hold a referendum on Māori seats in Parliament. A row has blown up over revelations Judith Collins' appointment as Law Commission President did not follow procedure and is a blatant political decision. The PSA is calling for an independent review of the appointment after evidence emerged it was done without any recruitment process, selection panel or consideration of rival candidates. The latest OneNews Verian poll shows there are clear signs the public isn't happy with the way the Government is performing. With NZ First not prepared to support the India FTA, the Government will need Labour's support to get the deal across the line. Now Labour has upped the pressure on the coalition to come clean about what is a rather secretive deal, before it will give its backing. The Government's plan to build an LNG terminal and pay for it with a levy has raised a lot of eyebrows. I'm joined now by Auckland University Professor Nirmal Nair an expert in energy policy and power systems, who says the responsibility for ensuring a reliable fuel supply should fall on power companies who generate and sell energy, not households.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 2 10.02.2026 19m

The Government was forced to issue a robust defence of its fast track legislation in the wake of jubilation among conservationists after an expert panel rejected Trans Tasman Resources’ application to mine the seabed off Taranaki for various minerals...Last the week, the US announced a stockpile of rare earth elements, and plans for a critical minerals trading bloc. New Zealand is set to be part of this, with fears already being raised over US companies getting involved in extraction, and the bulk of the profits being moved offshore...The latest Taxpayers Union Curia Poll shows the Centre-Right and Centre-Left blocs with pretty much equal support as the election looms. Labour is still the most popular party with 34.1% support, down slightly, while National is also down a fraction to trail on 31.3% - a wake up call for the Government...The experts were expecting unemployment to hold steady at 5.3% in the December quarter, but in a blow for the Government, the headline rate rose to 5.4%...And we're joined by Informetrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan to talk about how the economy will run as the coalition looks to be re-elected for another term.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod 2026, Episode 1 04.02.2026 25m

It's Waitangi week, and while Maori are still getting the short end of the stick across virtually every measure in society and the economy, but without the hated and derided Treaty Principles Bill, don't expect too many fireworks. NZ First is flexing its election muscle, with Winston Peters targeting the NZ India FTA. He sees it as an immigration issue...right up NZ First's street. Meanwhile there have been calls for the full text of the deal to be released to allay fears about immigration. NZ is finding its feet as a lower ranking power in a changing world. This country has decided not to join Donald Trump’s coalition of the ill fitting – the so called Board of Peace, although Winston Peters clearly sees a potential role for New Zealand at some point, presumably when the US decides to finally pull the plug on the UN, but Labour's Chris Hipkins says even considering joining is a disgrace and an embarrassment for the country. The cosy relationship between farmers and the coalition Government could be on the rocks over water. Federated Farmers has found a few barbs in the Government’s RMA reforms and it doesn‘t like them. The question is whether the Government will bend over like it usually does and make it right for the rural sector. And this week we're joined by Manurewa MP Arena Williams to talk about some key Auckland issues.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 46 09.12.2025 17m

This is the last edition for 2025 - we'll be back in February. Meantime this week the Government has revealed its two new RMA replacement Bills - well telegraphed, and not much different from the changes people expected...The Greens are on the warpath after it became clear the Government is paying no more than lip service to its Paris Climate obligations. Bank economists are talking up the economy, saying the big turn about is underway - but they've been saying that for some time, so we'll have to wait. The Government is going into year's end on a high with new polling showing it in a strong position. The Government has been warned by no less a forecaster than the illustrious S&P its rates cap will hurt the financial abilities of councils, and we're joined in this final edition of the year by Opposition leader Chris Hipkins:

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 45 02.12.2025 18m

There's reportedly been a leadership coup within National's ranks which has failed. The challenger, Chris Bishop, not able to get the numbers to roll PM Luxon - Luxon survives and National may well consider itself lucky to have escaped having a leader who may well have turned out to be less popular than Luxon. Meanwhile Labour is ending the year on a high, and in the box seat to form a Government next year. The Government's desperation to get the cost of living down has seen it targeting not greedy businesses like Fonterra or the power gentailers, but local councils. It's going to impose a rates cap, despite clear evidence of it being a failed policy overseas. And we're joined by political columnist Janet Wilson to unpack the the extraordinary failed leadership coup attempt by Chris Bishop and look at where the other parties sit as election year looms.

The Trans Tasman Pol Pod Episode 44 26.11.2025 19m

The Government has been scrambling this week to pass legislation before Parliament rises for the year, and maybe because there's a risk of the coalition not being returned at next year's election....There were some big calls, with a big change to KiwiSaver, a Social Housing plan, and the biggest changes to local Government in many decades as Chris Bishop made his presence felt, riding roughshod over local democracy. This week Susan St John, an expert on pensions and intergenerational equity at the University of Auckland joins me to unpack some of the pros and cons of the Government's decision to up the KiwiSaver contribution to 6% by 2032.