CAPS Unlock Podcast

Episodes

• The long arm of Turkmenistan 30.06.2026 42m

  Russia’s fuel crisis is no longer just Russia’s problem. As Ukrainian strikes continue to disrupt refinery capacity, shortages are spreading across the country, forcing Moscow to manage supplies and raising difficult questions for its neighbours. We examine what this means for Kazakhstan, whose own refining capacity remains limited despite its vast oil reserves, and for Kyrgyzstan, which depends heavily on Russian fuel imports. We also look at how widening price differences have fuelled an extraordinary smuggling economy stretching across Central Asia.We then turn to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Brussels. While headlines focused on the announcement of roughly $12 billion in commercial agreements, we ask whether the more consequential developments were political rather than financial. We discuss progress towards an EU-Kazakhstan visa facilitation agreement, new aviation arrangements, and what closer cooperation with European partners could mean for Kazakhstan’s long-term economic development and technological ambitions.In the interview slot, we speak with Hugh Williamson, director of the Europe and Central Asia division at Human Rights Watch, following the publication of the organisation’s major new report on Turkmenistan’s campaign against activists at home and abroad. The report documents imprisonment, enforced disappearances, surveillance of exiled dissidents, pressure on family members, passport restrictions and alleged forced returns from countries including Turkey and Russia. Williamson explains how Turkmenistan has expanded its methods of transnational repression, why September 2022 marked a turning point, and whether international pressure can realistically improve one of the world’s most closed political systems.Links* Human Rights Watch report on Turkmenistan’s transnational repression of activists - https://www.hrw.org/feature/2026/06/24/lives-destroyed-for-speaking-out-turkmen-activists-at-home-and-in-exile/the* Reuters report on Russia’s request to Kazakhstan for AI-92 gasoline supplies - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-asks-kazakhstan-gasoline-ease-shortages-sources-say-2026-06-24/* European Commission statement following President Tokayev’s visit to Brussels - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/de/statement_26_1436 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• What Central Asia teaches us about happiness 23.06.2026 41m

  This week’s episode begins with Uzbekistan’s historic World Cup appearance, the first by any Central Asian country. The opening match against Colombia did not deliver the result Uzbek fans wanted, but it did produce the country’s first ever World Cup goal and a striking display of regional support. From fan zones in Bishkek to messages of solidarity from neighbouring countries, Uzbekistan’s campaign has become more than a football story. It has also offered a glimpse of how sport can shape identity, pride and regional feeling across Central Asia.The episode then turns to Kazakhstan, where the newly created Adilet party has merged with Amanat, the long-dominant pro-presidential party formerly known as Nur Otan. What initially looked like a potential shake-up of Kazakhstan’s managed political system now looks more like a rebranding exercise. The discussion looks at what the merger says about political engineering, elite management and the coming elections to Kazakhstan’s new single-chamber Kurultai.For this week’s interview, the focus shifts to a very different subject: happiness. Professor Shoirakhon Nurdinova of the Kimyo International University in Tashkent discusses her book Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia, the first major comparative study of subjective well-being across the region.The book asks how people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan evaluate their own lives, and whether standard international measures of happiness capture what really matters in Central Asia. Nurdinova argues that income and GDP alone do not explain life satisfaction. Family trust, freedom of choice, informal support networks, health, employment patterns and local institutions such as the mahalla can matter just as much, and sometimes more.The conversation also explores why Western models of happiness may fail to capture Central Asian realities, and what policymakers should learn from looking beyond growth figures.LinksShoirakhon Nurdinova, Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia — https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-95-3082-3 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• How COVID became a toolkit for control in Central Asia 16.06.2026 39m

  This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast is devoted to a conversation with Luca Anceschi, Senior Lecturer in Central Asian Studies at the University of Glasgow, about his newly published book, Pandemic Politics in Central Asia.The book examines how three Central Asian governments, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Anceschi argues that the pandemic was not simply a public health emergency that these regimes struggled to manage. Under cover of crisis, governments expanded their control over travel, public information and dissent, while shielding politically connected elites and reinforcing existing patterns of authoritarian rule.The discussion looks at the blurred line between emergency rule and ordinary governance, the different ways Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan framed the pandemic, and why Turkmenistan’s refusal to acknowledge any COVID cases became one of the most striking examples of pandemic-era denialism anywhere in the world.We also discuss the longer history of crisis management in Central Asia, from Soviet-era disasters to post-Soviet emergencies, and how governments have often responded not by solving underlying problems, but by managing appearances, controlling data and suppressing alternative accounts.The episode also covers the role of journalists, activists and international organisations, including the World Health Organisation, in documenting or contesting official narratives.Links* Luca Anceschi, Pandemic Politics in Central Asia - https://www.routledge.com/Pandemic-Politics-in-Central-Asia-Authoritarian-Contagion/Anceschi/p/book/9789048562190* CAPS Unlock roundtable summary: The missing link in Central Asia’s energy transition - https://capsunlock.org/roundtable-the-missing-link-in-central-asias-energy-transition/* Aruzhan Meirkhanova’s report on Central Asia’s electricity grids - https://justclimate.fes.de/topics/energy-policy-fast-forward-to-renewables/powering-the-transition-rebuilding-central-asias-electricity-grids-for-regional-resilience.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Turkmenistan’s migration trap 02.06.2026 32m

  This week’s CAPS Unlock podcast does something different. Instead of our usual regional round-up, we devote the full episode to Turkmenistan, a country too often left at the margins of Central Asia analysis, or reduced to caricature.We speak with Gulshat Chmaisse, a PhD candidate at the Australian National University’s Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, about her new paper, Turkmenistan’s migration policies: Reshaping economy and society, published as part of CAPS Unlock’s The Argument series.The paper centres on a striking paradox. Turkmenistan depends heavily on labour migration. Remittances sent home by citizens abroad help sustain household consumption, offset low wages and limited state support, and reduce pressure for domestic economic reform. Yet the state also obstructs migration through passport restrictions, opaque rules, exit bans, blacklists and informal payments.Rozyyeva explains why official data badly understate Turkmenistan’s dependence on remittances, how informal transfer networks and the black-market exchange rate shape household survival, and why Turkey has become the main destination for Turkmen labour migrants while Russia remains important for students.The conversation also explores the feminisation of Turkmen migration. As men face greater scrutiny at borders and through military-linked restrictions, women increasingly migrate independently and become primary earners abroad, especially in domestic and care work. That shift brings new economic agency, but also legal insecurity, family separation, exploitation and trafficking risks.Listeners can find Gulshat Chmaisse’s paper at CAPS Unlock’s website: www.capsunlock.org Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Central Asia tries to become a region 26.05.2026 33m

  This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast begins with the legal and political dispute around Gazprom and Naftogaz in Kazakhstan. A court at the Astana International Financial Centre recognised a Swiss arbitration award of around $1.4 billion in favour of Ukraine’s Naftogaz against Russia’s Gazprom. But Kazakhstan’s justice minister later said the ruling would not be enforced, arguing that the dispute had no meaningful legal connection to Kazakhstan or the AIFC. We discuss why this matters, what the AIFC was created to do, and why the case exposes a tension between the centre’s international commercial-law ambitions and the Kazakh state’s political caution.We then turn to new figures from the Eurasian Development Bank showing that trade between Central Asian countries has nearly doubled since 2020, reaching $12.3 billion in 2025. Kazakhstan remains the largest intra-regional exporter, followed by Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan’s role has grown sharply. The numbers are encouraging, but the baseline remains low. We discuss why intra-regional trade matters, how it differs from Central Asia’s raw-material exports to outside markets, and why barriers such as customs friction, poor infrastructure and border corruption still hold the region back.In our interview slot, we speak with Johan Engvall, Deputy Research Director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, about his new report, Forming a New Central Asia: How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Build Regional Order Under Multipolar Pressure. We discuss the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan axis, Uzbekistan’s post-2016 regional opening, the role of consultative meetings, the Middle Corridor, and whether Central Asia is becoming more capable of acting as a region rather than merely reacting to Russia, China and the West.LINKS* AIFC Court judgment in Naftogaz v Gazprom - https://court.aifc.kz/judgments/case-no-2-of-2026/* Eurasian Development Bank Telegram post on intra-regional trade - https://t.me/eabr_bank/1266* Johan Engvall’s report, Forming a New Central Asia - https://www.foi.se/en/foi/reports/report-summary.html?reportNo=FOI-R--5814--SE Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Why China cares so much about Tajikistan 19.05.2026 39m

  This week’s episode begins with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon’s state visit to China, a trip that produced 31 agreements and a conspicuously grand treaty of “eternal friendship and good-neighbourliness.” The language was theatrical, but the substance was less silly. The visit showed how broad the China–Tajikistan relationship has become, spanning infrastructure, energy, artificial intelligence, education, media, party-to-party cooperation and regional security.The discussion focused on why Beijing invests so much political energy in Tajikistan, a small economy with relatively modest trade volumes compared with Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan. The answer lies less in market size than in geography. Tajikistan matters because of connectivity, its border with Afghanistan, and its role in China’s wider westward transport ambitions. A highway corridor through the Pamirs offers a concrete example: a difficult, strategically important route supported by Chinese financing and contractors, but also one exposed to violence along the Afghan border.The episode then turned to the informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Turkestan, Kazakhstan. Officially, the summit focused on artificial intelligence and digital development. More broadly, it raised the question of whether the OTS is evolving from a cultural forum into a more serious geopolitical platform. The Middle Corridor, Turkey’s regional ambitions, Russia’s irritation and the limits of security cooperation all featured in the discussion. The conclusion was cautious: the OTS is becoming more relevant, but its members still avoid choices that would force them into open alignment against Russia or China.For this week’s interview, Ablay Dosmaganbetov of the University of Central Asia discussed his paper, co-authored with Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, on the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. The paper asks whether transparency really creates accountability in authoritarian systems. Its answer is sceptical: in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, EITI often works less as a watchdog mechanism than as a signalling tool that helps governments appear reform-minded without ceding real political control.LINKSAccountability, Civil Society, and Economic Growth: Exploring the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative’s Adoption in Central Asia and Beyond, by Ablay Dosmaganbetov and Bakhytzhan Kurmanov - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/polp.70117?af=ROn Think Tanks - https://onthinktanks.org/China Daily coverage of Rahmon visit - https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202605/12/WS6a02f2cca310d6866eb482f8.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Kazakhstan’s AI future has a language problem 12.05.2026 39m

  This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we begin in Kazakhstan, where a new political party has appeared just ahead of parliamentary elections expected later this year.The party is called Adilet, meaning “justice,” and its sudden emergence has already raised familiar questions about how political competition works in Kazakhstan. Its leader, Aibek Dadebay, was until very recently head of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s administration, which makes it hard to treat Adilet as a spontaneous grassroots force. Its platform closely echoes Tokayev’s own language of order, progress, responsibility, patriotism and a “Just Kazakhstan”. The more interesting question may be what Adilet’s arrival means for Amanat, the long-dominant party of power formerly known as Nur Otan.We then turn to Victory Day and the politics of memory across Central Asia. Tokayev and Uzbekistan’s Shavkat Mirziyoyev attended the May 9 parade in Moscow, even as the event became more subdued and more politically charged because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. We discuss why Central Asian leaders still travel to Moscow for this commemoration, how their own domestic speeches increasingly stress national contributions to the Soviet victory, and why Russia’s framing of the war as an overwhelmingly Russian triumph remains so contentious.The conversation also looks at Kyrgyzstan, where a Victory Day concert in Karakol featuring Russian performers drew criticism after it incorporated symbols and rhetoric linked to Russia’s current war in Ukraine. That controversy showed how easily historical memory can slide into present-day propaganda.In this week’s interview, we spoke with Zhannat Bubekbayeva, author of Two Languages, Two Standards: AI and Linguistic Inequality in Kazakhstan’s Public Services. The paper is the first edition of The Argument, CAPS Unlock’s new monthly policy paper series.Bubekbayeva tested Kazakhstan’s eGov AI assistant in Kazakh and Russian and found serious disparities. Kazakh-language users often received less complete, less accurate and less natural responses than Russian-language users. We discussed what this says about digital modernisation, procurement standards, language equality and whether Kazakhstan’s AI-powered public services are really serving citizens equally.Links:* Two Languages, Two Standards: AI and Linguistic Inequality in Kazakhstan’s Public Services — Zhannat Bubekbayeva - https://capsunlock.org/publications/two-languages-two-standards-ai-and-linguistic-inequality-in-kazakhstans-public-services/* Adilet party platform - https://adilet-partiyasy.kz/* Fergana article on how Central Asian leaders framed Victory Day - https://fergana.agency/news/146708/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Kyrgyzstan's sanctions headache, Kazakh permits, and information manipulation 28.04.2026 34m

  In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we begin with a novelty in the European Union’s sanctions campaign toward Russia. For the first time, Brussels has applied what it calls an anti-circumvention mechanism at the level of an entire country: Kyrgyzstan.The measure is narrow but consequential. It targets specific categories of industrial equipment and financial channels that the EU believes have enabled sanctioned goods to be rerouted into Russia. Bishkek firmly rejects these claims. While the immediate economic impact may be limited, the reputational implications are harder to dismiss. The move sets a precedent: third countries risk direct restrictions if they are seen as transit hubs in sanctions evasion. At the same time, contrasting treatment of Tajik banks, recently removed from the sanctions list, raises questions about how technical these decisions really are.We then turn to Kazakhstan, where confusion over residence permit rules triggered unnecessary alarm.Reports suggested applicants might need advanced Kazakh language proficiency at B2 level. That interpretation proved incorrect. The government later clarified that requirements have not broadly tightened, but instead become more selective. Highly skilled professionals in priority sectors are now exempt from language and scoring requirements, while controls for others are becoming more structured. The episode highlights a recurring issue: policy communication remains uneven, even when the underlying direction is relatively clear.In this week’s interview, we look at foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) in Central Asia with Shairbek Dzhuraev, executive director of Crossroads Central Asia. Drawing on the European Neighbourhood Council’s report Information Under Pressure, we examine how external actors, primarily Russia and China, project narratives into local information spaces.These campaigns are sustained, coordinated, and adapted to national contexts. In Kazakhstan, messaging is locally calibrated; in Uzbekistan, it is more global and ideological. The conversation also explores a growing “resilience gap,” as pressure on independent media and civil society weakens the region’s ability to respond.Links* Report: Information Under Pressure (European Neighbourhood Council) - https://encouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CA_FIMI-Report.pdf* European Commission: EU 20th sanctions package announcement - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_869* Interview with President Sadyr Japarov (Kabar) - https://ru.kabar.kg/news/intervyu-s-prezidentom-kyrgyzstana-sadyrom-zhaparovym/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Kazakhstan’s oil shock, Kyrgyzstan’s crypto bet, and a new power broker 21.04.2026 36m

  This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we examine two sharply different but ultimately connected economic stories from Central Asia, before turning to a revealing interview on Kazakhstan’s changing business landscape.We begin in Kazakhstan, where official data show a roughly 20 percent year-on-year drop in oil production in the first quarter. The decline reflects a convergence of disruptions: a fire at the Tengiz field that temporarily halted output, and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on infrastructure linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Together, these episodes expose a structural vulnerability that is easy to overlook. Despite the fall in volumes, export revenues have held up, largely due to higher global oil prices. That apparent resilience masks a deeper problem: Kazakhstan remains heavily dependent on a single commodity, exported through infrastructure shaped by geopolitical risk.We then turn to Kyrgyzstan, where the government is attempting to position the country as a regional cryptocurrency hub. The scale of activity is striking, with transaction volumes far exceeding national GDP. But the reality is more limited than the headline numbers suggest. Most flows consist of simple currency conversions, often linked to cross-border transactions that bypass traditional banking channels. The government’s challenge is clear: can it transform this transit function into a genuine financial sector, or will it remain a conduit for external capital?Finally, we speak with journalist Chris Rickleton about his investigation into Shakhmurat Mutalip, a little-known businessman whose rapid rise places him at the centre of Kazakhstan’s strategic industries. Rickleton outlines what is known about Mutalip’s background, the role of the infrastructure giant Integra, and the significance of potential deals involving major mining firms. The discussion points to something larger than one individual: a possible reconfiguration of economic power in Kazakhstan, with implications for both domestic elites and foreign investors.LINKS* The Diplomat, Chris Rickleton & Ardak Bukeyeva, investigation on Shakhmurat Mutalip - https://thediplomat.com/2026/04/investigation-is-shakhmurat-mutalip-kazakhstans-new-chosen-one/* Radio Free Europe/Radio Ozodi – Tajikistan forced cotton cultivation report - https://www.ozodi.org/a/dehqonhoro-dubora-ba-kishti-pakhta-majbur-kardaand/33731032.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Who really rules Turkmenistan? 14.04.2026 44m

  In this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we turned our attention to one country that rarely gets the scrutiny it deserves: Turkmenistan. Despite its strategic location, vast gas reserves, and sensitive position between Iran, Afghanistan, and the rest of Central Asia, it remains one of the hardest states in the region to read clearly. Access is limited, reporting is constrained, and much of what emerges does so in fragments.To help make sense of that opacity, this episode brought together two guests with sharply different but complementary perspectives. Galiya Ibragimova, an expert on Central Asia and Eastern Europe and a contributor to Carnegie Politika, discussed the strange and still unresolved power arrangement at the top of the Turkmen state. Since Serdar Berdymukhamedov formally became president in March 2022, his father Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, widely known as Arkadag, has remained a central political force, raising obvious questions about who really governs and how stable that balance is.The conversation also examined the external pressures shaping Turkmenistan’s options. Heavy dependence on gas exports to China, the uncertain prospects of alternative routes, and the fallout from instability in Iran and Afghanistan all leave Ashgabat exposed. Galiya walked through the recent and rather extraordinary episode of Arkadag’s trip to Florida, using it as a window into elite dynamics and the father-son relationship at the top of the regime.But the episode did not stay at the level of palace intrigue. Aynabat Yaylymova, founder of Saglyk and Progres Foundation, brought the discussion back to the realities of daily life inside Turkmenistan: corruption, weak institutions, poor access to healthcare, rising food prices, information controls, and the growing pressure on household budgets. Beyond the rumours surrounding intra-elite tensions, she argued, the more important fact is that ordinary Turkmens continue to pay the price for misrule.The result is a conversation that tries to connect the opaque politics of the Turkmen elite with the far more tangible pressures experienced by people on the ground.LINKS* Progres Foundation - https://progres.online/* Saglyk - https://saglyk.org/* Galiya Ibragimova’s author page at Carnegie Politika - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/people/galiya-ibragimova* Galiya Ibragimova’s article on the Serdar-Gurbanguly power struggle and the Florida episode - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/04/serdar-vs-arkadag-who-controls-turkmenistan/* Galiya Ibragimova’s article on Turkmen gas exports and the fallout from the war in Iran - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/03/pressurized-gas-how-the-wars-surrounding-turkmenistan-are-affecting-gas-exports/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Central Asia between hunger, the atom and war 07.04.2026 38m

  This week’s episode looks at two structural pressures shaping Central Asia’s future: food insecurity in Tajikistan and energy strategy in Kyrgyzstan, before turning to the wider regional impact of the war in Iran.We begin in Tajikistan, where President Emomali Rahmon has warned of unprecedented food price rises. His explanations point outward, to climate change and global instability, but the domestic picture complicates that narrative. At the same time as calling for food security, authorities continue to push farmers toward cotton production.Reporting suggests this is not voluntary: quotas and administrative pressure leave farmers little room to prioritize food crops. The result is a system that prioritizes exportable raw materials over local consumption.That trade-off looks increasingly untenable in a country where malnutrition remains widespread and infrastructure constraints, especially lack of storage, undermine food stability. The contradiction is stark: rising demand for food alongside policies that disincentivize its production.The second story turns to Kyrgyzstan, where officials have floated a referendum on building a nuclear power plant. There are no concrete plans yet, but the signal matters. Electricity demand has risen sharply, while generation has barely kept pace, leaving a widening deficit covered by imports. Hydropower still dominates the system, but its seasonal volatility and exposure to climate risks make it unreliable as a sole backbone. Nuclear is being framed less as a replacement than as a stabilizer, baseload capacity to smooth out fluctuations.In our interview slot, we speak with Shakhlo Kamaladinova, Central Asia Coordinator for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. She explains how the war in Iran is affecting Central Asia not geographically, but structurally. Trade routes through Iranian ports remain critical, and disruptions are already feeding into higher insurance costs, logistical uncertainty, and long-term strategic recalculations. While alternative corridors exist, they lack the flexibility to fully compensate. The result is a region increasingly aware of its exposure, but not yet equipped to escape it.Links· Shakhlo Kamaladinova’s article at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation: · President Rahmon’s speech in Sughd: https://president.tj/event/news/55134· RFE/RL Tajik service report on Rahmon’s speech: https://www.azattyqasia.org/a/prezident-tadzhikistana-predupredil-o-bespretsedentnom-roste-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-v-etom-godu/33722989.html· Asia-Plus, April 2025, on farmers forced to destroy wheat for cotton: https://asiaplus.news/2025/04/18/v-rajonah-tadzhikistana-mestnye-vlasti-unichtozhayut-posevy-psheniczy-zastavlyaya-dehkan-sazhat-hlopok/· Asia-Plus, February 2025, on cotton coercion: https://asiaplus.news/2025/02/25/fermerov-tadzhikistana-zastavlyayut-sazhat-hlopok/· Avesta.tj, on cotton sowing campaign launch: https://avesta.tj/2026/03/27/v-kanibadame-nachalas-kampaniya-po-posevu-hlopka/· World Food Program, Tajikistan food security data: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000172887/download/· Eurasian Development Bank, warehouse infrastructure study: https://eabr.org/analytics/special-reports/warehouse-infrastructure-in-eurasia-the-opportunity-of-the-decade/· Interfax on Kyrgyzstan nuclear referendum proposal: https://www.interfax.ru/world/1081927· Rosatom, RITM-200N memorandum with Kyrgyzstan: https://rosatom-energy.ru/media/rosatom-news/rosatom-i-kirgiziya-dogovorilis-o-sotrudnichestve-v-sooruzhenii-atomnoy-stantsii-maloy-moshchnosti/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Kyrgyz political soap opera, Kazakhstan's media chill, and Central Asia's energy dilemma 31.03.2026 41m

  This week, we return to the political soap opera unfolding in Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the February removal of security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev. The pressure on Tashiyev’s family continues to mount. His brother, Shairbek, who surrendered his parliamentary mandate after a first police interrogation earlier in March, has now been called back in for a second round of questioning.His son, Tai-Muras, is facing a subtler social media campaign highlighting the $6 million profit made by his company between 2020 and 2025, a figure that raises pointed questions, given that President Sadyr Japarov was publicly praising Tai-Muras’ business acumen as recently as 2024.Meanwhile, the former National Bank chairman Melis Turgunbayev has been drawn into the investigation into state oil and gas company Kyrgyzneftegaz, briefly detained and now released, but still facing possible prosecution.But the story has another side: the acquittal of the so-called Kempir-Abad defendants, activists and politicians arrested in 2022 for opposing a controversial border deal with Uzbekistan, has now been upheld on appeal. And the journalist Makhabat Tazhibek kyzy of investigative outlet Temirov Live has been released from pre-trial detention. Thaw or managed transition? We discuss.We then turn to Kazakhstan, where popular YouTube channel Airan, with its nearly 1.2 million subscribers, has abruptly shut down. The explanation given was carefully, conspicuously vague. We examine what its closure says about the structural impossibility of independent media in Kazakhstan, against a backdrop of several recent journalist arrests.For our interview this week, we spoke with Demir Kabylbayev, senior analyst and energy sector lead at the Eurasian Development Bank, and lead author of a new report on Central Asia’s power sector. We discussed the region’s acute energy challenge: surging demand, ageing Soviet-era infrastructure, and the difficult path toward renewables, and why a pragmatic middle path may be the only realistic option.LinkPower Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition - https://eabr.org/en/analytics/special-reports/power-sector-of-central-asia-modernization-and-energy-transition/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Silk Mirage: Joanna Lillis on Uzbekistan’s unfinished transition 24.03.2026 40m

  This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast departs from the usual format for a single in-depth conversation with journalist Joanna Lillis, whose new book Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan draws on more than two decades of reporting to examine the country’s evolution since independence.Lillis traces Uzbekistan’s trajectory from the repressive system built under Islam Karimov to the more open but still contradictory era of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Rather than a conventional political history, the book is constructed through individual stories, with former political prisoners, exiles, activists, and artists, and allows the lived experience of the system to take precedence over official narratives.A central theme of the discussion is the question of historical reckoning. Lillis argues that Uzbekistan’s failure to confront episodes such as the Andijan massacre continues to shape both public life and private memory. Without a clear account of past abuses, she suggests, reforms risk resting on unstable foundations, with old practices, whether in the justice system or restrictions on speech, reappearing in new forms.The conversation also examines the limits of reform. While the eradication of state-sponsored forced labour in the cotton sector stands out as a genuine success, deeper structural issues in agriculture and governance remain unresolved. More broadly, Lillis points to a pattern of selective liberalisation: greater openness in some areas paired with persistent red lines in politics, media, and civic life.Attention turns to culture and society, where change is more dynamic. Uzbekistan today displays a complex mix of liberalising and conservative currents, from the rise of religious influencers to a still-cautious creative sector shaped by residual fear and self-censorship. At the same time, the state’s effort to promote a polished international image through culture and heritage sits uneasily alongside continued repression at home.Across the discussion runs a consistent argument: that Uzbekistan’s future development, economic as much as political, depends not only on reform, but on a more honest engagement with its past.Links Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan - https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/silk-mirage-9781350292468/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Kazakhstan's referendum, Kyrgyz purge escalates, and Central Asia's museums 17.03.2026 45m

  In this week’s very packed episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast we cover a busy news week across two countries, and speak with a researcher whose work offers a fascinating lens on how Central Asian states construct national identity through their museums.We begin with Kazakhstan, where citizens went to the polls to approve a new constitution, the country’s third since independence. With official figures showing turnout of around 73 percent and 87 percent support for the new document, we walk through the key changes: the merger of Kazakhstan’s two chambers of parliament into a single body called the Kurultai, the creation of a new vice-presidential role, and the establishment of a new advisory institution called the People’s Council. We also reflect on what the process itself revealed; the speed at which the new document was adopted, questions around independent observation, and the broader project of national myth-making that a new constitutional holiday on March 15 represents.Then we turn to Kyrgyzstan, where what initially looked like a clean break between President Sadyr Japarov and his longtime ally and former security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev is becoming considerably more complicated. The state tax service has published an investigation on YouTube alleging that a network of companies connected to Tashiyev’s relatives systematically siphoned profits from the state oil company Kyrgyzneftegaz over five years, with losses estimated at over $45 million. Meanwhile, Tashiyev’s brother, Shairbek, has resigned from parliament (at least seven MPs linked to Tashiyev’s orbit have resigned their seats in recent weeks). We discuss what this escalation means for Kyrgyzstan’s political landscape and what it may portend for the future.Finally, in our interview segment, we speak with Katarzyna Jarosz, a researcher and author of Museums in Central Asia and the Construction of National Narratives (Palgrave Macmillan, 2025). Katarzyna takes us through what museums in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan reveal about how these states understand, and curate, their own pasts, and offers practical tips for visitors on how to read a Central Asian museum.Links:Katarzyna Jarosz, Museums in Central Asia and the Construction of National Narratives (Palgrave Macmillan, 2025) — https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/museums-in-central-asia-and-the-construction-of-national-narrati/51409240The State Tax Service of Kyrgyzstan YouTube investigation into Kyrgyzneftegaz - Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Central Asia in the ripple zone of Iran’s war 10.03.2026 42m

  In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we speak with Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at Nightingale Int., about what the war between the United States, Israel and Iran could mean for Central Asia.Rather than dwelling on battlefield events, the conversation looks at the wider regional consequences of the conflict, particularly for trade routes, strategic connectivity and Central Asia’s ability to balance between larger powers. Gusseinov argues that the immediate effect on the region is less direct than many assume. The more important question lies in the ripple effects: how the war reshapes relations among Iran, Russia, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and how those shifts then feed back into Central Asia.He outlines three broad trends to watch. First, if the Iranian regime survives, Tehran may move closer to Moscow, giving Russia a stronger role in the corridors that run south through Iran and Afghanistan. Second, China may place greater weight on Central Asia as a stable neighbour and as a hedge against vulnerable maritime choke points and instability across the wider Asian space. Third, Afghanistan, squeezed by conflict with Pakistan and by disruptions to its access through Iran, may seek deeper integration with Central Asia and Russia via northern routes.The discussion also examines whether prolonged instability in Iran would damage Central Asia’s hopes of reaching the Indian Ocean, and whether alternatives such as Afghanistan, Pakistan or even a narrower focus on Afghanistan as a market might become more realistic. Gusseinov is sceptical of easy answers, arguing that geography still bites, infrastructure remains weak, and sanctions continue to impose a structural constraint.At the broadest level, the episode asks whether this war could narrow the space for Central Asia’s multi-vector diplomacy. Gusseinov’s answer is cautious. In the short term, yes, but over time, the region may still find new routes, new bargains and new ways to adapt. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• After Epic Fury: Central Asia’s balancing act 03.03.2026 43m

  Operation Epic Fury has forced every government in Central Asia to signal where it stands. And just as importantly, how carefully it intends to stand there.We began this week’s CAPS Unlock podcast with the U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran and the varied responses across the five Central Asian republics. Tajikistan, the region’s only Persian-speaking state, issued unusually warm condolences toward Tehran, though notably via its embassy rather than the presidential press service. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan adopted more conventional diplomatic language, invoking dialogue and the UN Charter. Kazakhstan expressed solidarity with Jordan, Qatar and the UAE following Iranian retaliatory strikes and moved quickly to secure its nationals in Iran, including dozens of workers at a joint mining venture. Turkmenistan, which shares a long border with Iran, has remained publicly silent, a silence that reflects both exposure and constraint.We then turn to Russia’s decision to designate the Kazakhstan-focused outlet Respublika as a “foreign agent.” The move marks the first time Moscow has applied its domestic political labeling system to a media project centered on Kazakhstan. We discuss what this could mean in practice: whether Russia is testing Astana’s willingness to cooperate, whether this signals a broader attempt to extend Russian legal norms into the post-Soviet space, and how such designations may complicate media operations across borders.In this week’s interview, we speak with UK-based analyst Ora Lazic about her recent business position paper prepared ahead of the B5+1 meeting in Bishkek. Lazic challenges the idea of a critical minerals “gold rush.” While strategically important, the sector remains economically modest. She argues that Central Asia’s real task is institutional: modernising geological data, strengthening regulatory stability, building infrastructure along the Middle Corridor, and coordinating government-backed financing. If supply chain diversification away from China is serious, it will require sustained structural reform, not rhetoric.LINKSCritical Mineral Resources: Expanding Cooperation: Central Asia–United States Business Dialogues - https://www.cipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Critical-Mineral-Resources_B51-2026_en.pdfRespublika report on its inclusion in Russia’s list of “foreign agents” - https://respublika.kz.media/archives/157073 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Kyrgyz sanctions, Turkmen signals, and Kazakh solar power 24.02.2026 48m

  This week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast moves across three very different but interconnected storylines shaping Central Asia’s political and economic trajectory.We begin with the European Union’s stalled 20th sanctions package against Russia and, most relevantly for us, the likely inclusion of Kyrgyzstan. Although Hungary and Slovakia blocked the package for now, Kyrgyzstan had been earmarked under the EU’s new anti-circumvention mechanism. The concern is clear: a dramatic surge in re-exports of dual-use goods to Russia, alongside the rapid expansion of Kyrgyzstan’s licensed crypto sector. Since 2022, the country has built a regulatory framework for virtual asset service providers, issuing roughly 100 licenses and facilitating billions of dollars in transactions. Western authorities increasingly suspect that some of this infrastructure has enabled sanctions evasion. Even if sanctions do not materialise immediately, the reputational implications for Kyrgyzstan’s investment climate are significant.We then turn to Turkmenistan, where two carefully timed diplomatic signals raise larger geopolitical questions. Former president (and current National Leader) Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov travelled to Florida, offering familiar pitches for investment, including renewed references to the long-delayed TAPI pipeline. Separately, it has been reported that President Serdar Berdymukhamedov is preparing a visit to Brussels, where energy cooperation and the long-frozen EU–Turkmen Partnership and Cooperation Agreement are expected to feature prominently. With Europe searching for diversification away from Russian energy, and Washington recalibrating its posture toward Iran, Turkmenistan’s strategic positioning merits close attention.Finally, we speak with CAPS Unlock senior research fellow Azimzhan Khitakhunov about new research on Kazakhstan’s renewable sector. While clean energy accounts for roughly 7 percent of electricity generation, it remains concentrated in large installations. The report, which will be published on the CAPS Unlock website in the near future, examines how small and medium-sized enterprises could become drivers of decentralised green growth. Financing constraints, regulatory awareness gaps, and limited support mechanisms remain key barriers. Comparative lessons from Canada, Australia, and especially Uzbekistan illustrate how targeted incentives and information campaigns can accelerate uptake. Encouragingly, regional officials in Almaty have signalled interest in implementing elements of the study’s recommendations.LinksRussia Leveraging Kyrgyzstan’s Crypto Ecosystem to Evade Sanctions - https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/russia-leveraging-kyrgyzstans-crypto-ecosystem-to-evade-sanctionsReuters reporting on proposed EU sanctions affecting Kyrgyzstan - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kyrgyzstan-seeks-talks-with-eu-over-report-that-bloc-considers-sanctions-over-2026-02-02/Turkmenistan’s president to visit EU for talks on energy, EU ambassador says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkmenistans-president-visit-eu-talks-energy-eu-ambassador-says-2026-02-17/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Central Asia's transition puzzle: A quiet coup, constitution-tinkering, and a vanishing leader 17.02.2026 42m

  This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast plunges directly into political shifts unfolding across Central Asia. Developments in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan are each highly specific, rooted in their own institutional histories and elite dynamics. Yet taken together, they point to a deeper and more persistent anxiety: how personalistic political systems manage transition.The entire episode is devoted to a conversation with Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center whose work closely tracks political change across the region.In Kyrgyzstan, President Sadyr Japarov’s abrupt dismissal of security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev marked the apparent end of a five-year tandem that had dominated the political system. The move was swift and coordinated: Tashiyev was removed while abroad, his deputies were dismissed, key security structures were reallocated, and several public figures linked to a controversial letter calling for early elections were detained. Was this a routine consolidation of power ahead of the 2027 presidential vote, or the deliberate dismantling of a parallel power centre?In Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has accelerated a constitutional overhaul initially framed as parliamentary reform. Within months, the initiative expanded into a broader rewrite, culminating in a March 15 referendum. Among the most closely watched elements is the reintroduction of a vice presidency, a structural innovation that inevitably raises questions about succession pathways, elite alignment, and long-term guarantees.In Tajikistan, President Emomali Rahmon’s unexplained two-week absence reignited speculation about health and dynastic transition. Although he has since reappeared, the episode exposed how tightly the system remains tied to a single individual. With his son Rustam Emomali constitutionally positioned as interim successor, the framework for transfer appears clear on paper, but far less certain in practice.Across the region, transition is no longer an abstract question. It is being tested in real time, through dismissals, constitutional redesign, and moments of silence that unsettle political systems built around personal authority. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• China’s $100 billion moment in Central Asia 10.02.2026 44m

  This week’s episode of the Caps Unlock Podcast opened with a discussion of a major shift in Central Asia’s external economic orientation: China has overtaken Russia to become the region’s largest trading partner. Drawing on newly published trade data for 2025, the conversation examined what it means for China-Central Asia trade to surpass the $100 billion mark for the first time, and why that figure matters beyond headline symbolism.The discussion explored the drivers behind this rapid expansion, including infrastructure investment linked to the Belt and Road Initiative, the spread of Chinese e-commerce platforms and payment systems across Central Asia, and the growing role of the region as a logistical corridor amid Western sanctions on Russia. Particular attention was paid to trade imbalances, anomalous export data from Kyrgyzstan, and the risk that deepening integration with China could harden into a new form of economic lock-in, even as regional governments continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy strategy.The episode then turned to a very different, but equally revealing, regional trend: the rise of so-called “dropperstvo,” the use of intermediaries to move money in fraud schemes. Using a recent case announced by Kyrgyzstan’s security services as a starting point, the discussion traced how organised networks supply SIM cards, messaging accounts, and bank access to international scam operations. These networks allow fraudsters to distance themselves from financial trails by routing victim payments through “droppers”, often young people recruited to provide temporary access to their accounts.A second case from Kazakhstan illustrated how the same mechanism appears in more mundane criminal activity, including, in one recent instance, the illegal sale of vapes using third-party payment accounts. The conversation explored why authorities in both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have moved to criminalise dropper activity itself, and why law enforcement increasingly treats this as a youth-risk and financial literacy problem rather than a purely technical crime.In the interview segment, the podcast featured Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Central Asia, discussing his 2024 paper, “Between ‘info-killers’ and ‘spies’: three strategies for interviewing government officials across Central Asia.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, Kurmanov outlined practical strategies for conducting sensitive interviews in environments marked by suspicion, weak research traditions, and political risk. The conversation focused on insider positionality, de-ceremonialising interviews, and depoliticising research questions, insights with relevance not only for academics, but also for journalists, policy researchers, and practitioners working with public institutions across the region.Links and further reading* Report on China–Central Asia trade surpassing $100 billion (Xinhua or official customs data) - https://russian.news.cn/20260118/c13465d2d3b541f4a831f65849c8d70f/c.html* Bloomberg report on Shell pausing investment in Kazakhstan - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/shell-to-pause-kazakh-oil-and-gas-investments-amid-disputes* GKNB announcement on dismantling fraud network in Kyrgyzstan - https://24.kg/proisshestvija/360311_gruppu_postavlyavshuyu_telefonnyim_moshennikam_akkauntyi_iSIM-kartyi_zaderjali_vkr/* Kazakhstan report on vape sales and dropper schemes - https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/afm/press/news/details/1148161?lang=ru* Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, Between ‘info-killers’ and ‘spies’ (2024) - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02634937.2024.2375283* Neil Collins, Elaine Sharplin, and Aziz Burkhanov (2023) — Challenges for political science research ethics in autocracies: A case study of Central Asia - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/14789299231153074 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
• Kazakhstan’s arbitration win, Russia’s healthcare squeeze, and a reading crisis 03.02.2026 42m

  This week’s episode opened with a discussion of Kazakhstan’s provisional landmark arbitration victory against foreign oil majors over disputed costs at the Karachaganak oil and gas field. We unpacked why the ruling matters not only for the billions of dollars potentially at stake, but also for what it signals politically.Drawing on reporting by Reuters and Bloomberg, the conversation explored how the case reaches back into the era of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, how allegations of inflated or fictitious costs intersect with long-standing corruption concerns, and why the administration of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has framed the dispute as both a financial and moral reckoning. We also considered whether the ruling could meaningfully change how foreign investors behave in Kazakhstan’s extractive sector, or whether deeper structural incentives remain intact.The discussion then turned to Kyrgyzstan’s decision to challenge Russia at the Eurasian Economic Union court over changes to access to state healthcare. A key clarification emerged early on: the issue is not that migrant workers themselves are being denied medical coverage, but that their dependents are no longer automatically entitled to state healthcare. We examined how this policy fits into Russia’s broader migration strategy, including recent data showing a sharp decline in the number of migrant children in the country. The episode explored what the case could mean for the credibility of the Eurasian Economic Union, whether the bloc’s legal commitments are being hollowed out in practice, and how the court’s eventual ruling could either reinforce or further undermine trust in regional integration frameworks.In the interview segment, we spoke with Joe Luc Barnes, a journalist based in Almaty and the author of a recent article for The Times of Central Asia on declining reading habits in Kazakhstan. The conversation ranged from the economic pressures facing bookstores to the impact of currency weakness, e-commerce, and shifting language politics on the book market.We discussed why Kazakhstan appears particularly affected by global declines in long-form reading, how the retreat of Russian-language publishing has not yet been offset by Kazakh-language production, and what this means for education, public discourse, and political literacy. Barnes also reflected on state-led reading initiatives, library usage statistics, and the longer-term risks of a society increasingly shaped by short-form, screen-driven information.More reading• Reuters reporting on the Karachaganak arbitration - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kazakhstan-tribunal-seeking-billions-oil-majors-cited-corrupt-officials-sources-2026-01-30/• Bloomberg reporting on the Karachaganak arbitration - https://archive.is/PO6tN#selection-1177.0-1791.73• Joe Luc Barnes’ article in The Times of Central Asia - https://timesca.com/the-battle-to-keep-kazakhstan-reading/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe