Conflicts of Interest

Episodes

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  Why is Ukraine targeting Iran? And can Europe stop lone-actor attacks? 27.07.2026 24m

  What does Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian cargo ship tell us about the expanding war — and was it really a message to Donald Trump? Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack why Ukraine may be taking the fight beyond Russia, what Iran’s threat of retaliation means, and where the Houthis fit into the conflict. Plus, after an attack at a Pride event in Berlin, they look at Europe’s changing terror threat, the rise of less sophisticated, lone-actor attacks, and the difficult quest...
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  Far right, far left: The widening abyss between extremes 20.07.2026 38m

  While political leaders frame left-wing extremism as the rising domestic terror threat, the actual data (who commits violence, against whom, and why) points in a more uncomfortable direction. This week on Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down what ACLED's data reveals about political violence in the United States and beyond: Is the far left genuinely becoming a greater security threat, or is the danger being overstated for political gain? What does the data ac...
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  Inside Myanmar's War: Drones, China & Why nobody's winning 13.07.2026 33m

  This week on Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Myanmar expert, Su Mon, to examine why Myanmar's civil war won't end anytime soon despite sweeping early resistance gains. They break down the fractured battlefield of hundreds of armed groups, the military stalemate between the junta and opposition forces, and how drones, improvised aircraft, and shifting alliances are reshaping the conflict. The conversation explores China's role as the count...
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  The Sudan war explained: Siege, drones, and regional power struggles 06.07.2026 34m

  This week on Conflict of Interests, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined by ACLED's Sudan expert, Nohad Khaddaj, to examine why Sudan's war remains deadlocked despite mounting diplomatic pressure. They break down the siege of Al Obeid, the military stalemate between the SAF and RSF, and how drones, foreign backing, and regional rivalries are reshaping the battlefield. The conversation explores the roles of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, and asks why geopolitics ...
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  Iran attacked: What the weekend strikes reveal and Britain's anti-migration moment 29.06.2026 28m

  The Islamabad Memorandum was signed barely two weeks ago. Sanctions relief and $24 billion in unfrozen funds have already reached Tehran. So when an Iranian drone struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the US retaliated within hours — and both sides immediately agreed to "stand down for now." Is the MoU already dead — or is Tehran simply testing how far it can push? Britain's anti-migration fracture has moved from political rhetoric to street-level reality — an...
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  Iran deal confusion, Starmer out, Colombia’s rightward shift, and UK anti-migration anger 22.06.2026 29m

  The talks are “looking good”, according to Washington. Iran wants sanctions relief, Trump looks desperate to get out, and Israel is still not convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending — or is Tehran walking away with the money, the leverage, and most of the cards? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron unpack the latest US-Iran talks in Switzerland, why the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz matters, and what this supposed progress really amounts to. They look at whether Trump is t...
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  Is this the end of the Iran war? 14.06.2026 19m

  The US says a deal is close. Iran wants sanctions relief. Israel isn't convinced. So is the Iran war actually ending, or are we just entering a new phase? This week, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the latest ceasefire negotiations, why Pakistan has become a key diplomatic player, what reopening the Strait of Hormuz really means, and why peace agreements can be far more fragile than they appear. They also discuss the latest tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, why some ...
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  The Horn of Africa Crisis the West is getting completely wrong 09.06.2026 47m

  The Horn of Africa is the most consequential and least understood region in the world right now and Western analysis is making it worse. In this episode, ACLED founder Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's regional experts to break down dynamics in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Russia and China are watching. But it's the UAE and Saudi Arabia that are in the room, funding factions, brokering deals, and projecting power in ways that Western foreign policy simply isn't built t...
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  Iran talks: The real stakes no one is talking about 01.06.2026 22m

  The peace talks continue between Iran and the U.S, but who actually wants a deal, and what does "winning" even mean for each side? Professor Clionadh Raleigh chats with Bron Mills about the real strategic interests at play: what the US needs, what Iran's leadership can actually accept, and what the regional picture looks like if talks collapse or succeed. Then: what is the point from here? With negotiations fragile and red lines on all sides, we assess what a credible outcome looks like, and ...
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  Peace Talks & Trust Issues: Iran, Russia, and the Wars With No End in Sight 27.05.2026 29m

  On this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills catch up on Day 88 of the Iran war — a moment defined more by paralysis than progress. They unpack Iran's internet blackout, finally ending after months of restrictions, what it reveals about Tehran's grip on internal dissent, and why the latest round of US-Iran peace talks remains trapped in a web of competing agendas. Washington, Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi, the Gulf states are pulling in different dir...
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  Escalation, Ebola and Extremism: Can anyone keep up? 21.05.2026 31m

  The world is moving so quickly it is becoming harder to know where to look first. Iran remains on edge around the Strait of Hormuz. Ebola is spreading through one of the DRC’s most militarized regions. And attacks on places of worship are exposing the messy overlap between extremism, antisemitism, misogyny, and political violence. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills try to make sense of a week where every crisis seems to be accelerating at once...
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  The attention war: ceasefire one minute, missiles the next 11.05.2026 26m

  As headlines swing wildly between ceasefire talks, missile strikes, diplomatic breakthroughs and fresh retaliation, this episode of Conflicts of Interest explores the growing sense of global confusion surrounding modern conflict. ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Bron Mills to unpack the “attention war” shaping how conflicts are understood online, where algorithms, viral misinformation and nonstop breaking news are increasingly competing with verified reporting and nuance. From Ir...
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  Drone proliferation: The Ukraine effect 06.05.2026 21m

  Ukraine has produced millions of drones and lost thousands more — and that hard-won expertise is now in high demand. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Ukraine expert Witold Stupnicki unpack how Kyiv is exporting its drone warfare knowledge to Gulf states, why a $50 drone can outmanoeuvre a $3 million missile, and what that means for the future of conflict. From frozen front lines to Saudi air bases, the drone revolution is reshaping...
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  Sudan’s next phase of war: fragmentation, spillover, and foreign patrons 29.04.2026 31m

  As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s borders. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLE...
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  The world Iran left overlooked: assassination attempts, suicide bombings, and shifting alliances 27.04.2026 26m

  An assassination attempt on the US president. A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali. Rising violence in Chad. Continued fighting in Lebanon. As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unp...
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  Inside the world’s deadliest terror zone 20.04.2026 34m

  JNIM. Islamic State Sahel Province. Boko Haram. These are the groups driving a surge in violence across the Sahel—now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism. Across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks are escalating at a pace that outstrips every other region globally. Coups, foreign troop withdrawals, and weakening state control have created space for militant groups to expand, adapt, and entrench themselves across vast areas of the region. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, AC...
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  No deal, no passage: Inside the blockade reshaping the Middle East 13.04.2026 35m

  Six weeks into the Iran conflict, the tides are shifting rapidly—and the stakes could not be higher. As the U.S. and Israel escalate their military posture, threatening to impose a naval blockade on Iran, a new chapter in regional power plays is unfolding—one that could redefine control over the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf. In this episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED expert Bassel Doueik delve into the decisions fueling ...
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  IRAN WAR: Iran Ceasefire Explained: How can everyone claim victory? 08.04.2026 28m

  A ceasefire has been announced in the Iran war — but is this really de-escalation, or a strategic defeat for the United States and its allies? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down the fragile Iran ceasefire, the unanswered questions around the deal, and why control of the Strait of Hormuz could leave Tehran in a stronger position than before. They unpack what the reported terms may mean for Iran’s nuclear programme, Gulf secu...
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  IRAN WAR: Everyone loses if this ends now 02.04.2026 23m

  President Trump said the Iran war objectives ‘near completion’ in a televised speech last night - But what does that actually mean? In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh unpacks the latest developments in the Iran war with ACLED’s Media Manager, Bron Mills — from Iran’s leverage over key shipping routes to the limits of Israel’s decapitation strategy. They also explore how the conflict is reshaping global dynamics, with ripple effects reaching Russia and Ukraine...
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  IRAN WAR: What will the Houthis do next? 30.03.2026 23m

  The Iran war took another turn this weekend as Yemen’s Houthi movement officially entered the conflict, launching missile attacks against Israel and outlining new red lines that could pull more actors into the fight. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's Yemen expert Dr Luca Nevola to unpack what the Houthis’ decision means for the region. Why did they intervene now after weeks of restraint? Why target Israel instead of the Red Sea? And what...