Trade Splaining

Episodes

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  Is AI Doping Global Trade? China's Chip Export Boom, Data Centers and Bond Yields 29.10.2026 27m

  Washington switched off its biggest Russia sanctions law two days before it was due to start, with very little in the way of explanation. According to the New York Times, Trump waived the Graham sanctions on October 16, ahead of an October 18 start date. The law would have allowed tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas. In episode 95, Robert Skidmore and I (no guest this week, just the two of us) try to work out who is actually running the sanctions playbook, and what it means for any company trying to guess which way trade policy is heading. The Hormuz fuel shock keeps leaking into everything else. Diesel is expensive, Ryanair's Michael O'Leary is predicting the biggest airfare increases in history, and the AI boom is pushing up trade, power demand and possibly a bubble. At the same time, government borrowing costs in the US, France and Japan have hit multi-decade highs, and the IMF is openly worried about a disorderly jump in bond yields. Trade policy, energy, AI and debt all seem to be pulling on the same thread, and nobody is quite sure which way it unravels. What Went Wrong This Week Who's running the sanctions playbook? The New York Times reported on October 16 that Trump waived the Graham sanctions two days before they were due to take effect on October 18. The waiver follows a Treasury license that lets Russia sell diesel until April, as fuel prices bite. Our read: it's a second- and third-order effect of Hormuz, and a sort of Liberation Day in reverse - announce the lifting, promise a flood of diesel, then discover Russia doesn't have the capacity to send it. The bigger problem is for companies. For a while the direction of travel was clear (diversify your supply chains). The more often policy flips, the harder it is to plan. Fuel, fares and Ryanair. Ryanair's Michael O'Leary expects European fares to rise by as much as 20% over the next 12 months - "the biggest increases in airfares, I would say, in history" - and says Ryanair is about 85% unhedged for next year, with most rivals in a similar spot. Diesel and jet fuel come out of the same refineries, which is the warning we heard earlier this year from Marie Owens Thomsen of IATA. Also: whether airfares are actually too low, and the future of John Denver's "Leaving on a Jet Plane". AI, trade and the bubble question. The Financial Times reported that China's chip exports jumped 136% in value but only 1% in volume, which is another way of saying mostly price. Add a wobble in AI credit (CoreWeave shares fell), a record chip quarter in the same week, and EU power demand growing for a 13th straight month in September (per Ember) after years of decline, with data center capacity forecast to double. Our read: AI investment is quietly doping trade and investment flows, and yes, it's a bubble. The real question is what the shockwaves look like when it pops, and who's left picking up the pieces. Walls going up on both sides. The EU is picking up pace on measures to protect its single market - hybrids first, now chemicals and machinery - with Germany finally coming around (a thread from episode 93), and factories are closing even in Switzerland. Trade still finds a way, though. China keeps exporting, and now exports watches too: lower cost, surprisingly good quality, same playbook as EVs. Meanwhile journalists seem to be racing to publish either "China is deindustrializing everyone" or "China is collapsing". We're not picking a winner. Bond yields and the confidence game. Borrowing costs in the US, France and Japan have hit multi-decade highs in recent weeks, and the IMF's latest Global Financial Stability Report flags a disorderly spike in government bond yields as a major risk. The 10-year Treasury touched a decade-long high before easing, while UK gilts and French bonds are in the crosshairs. Why does half a percent matter? Because of the billions it takes away from other priorities when growth is slow. It's the same thread as episode 93, when Ch
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  Globalization Is Back (Sort Of): DHL’s Data, Forced-Labor Tariffs and Rabobank’s Michael Every 15.10.2026 39m

  Globalization is apparently back, according to DHL, a company with absolutely no stake in the matter. Its latest globalization tracker has globalization at a record high in 2025 and goods trade growing in the first half of 2026 at its fastest pace in 15 years (Covid rebound aside). Meanwhile, US-China trade is down to 1.6% of world goods trade, from a peak of 3.5% a decade ago. Trade isn’t disappearing, it’s rerouting. In episode 94, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that means, then sit down with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, to ask what happens when tariffs, sanctions, chip bans and subsidies stop being separate policies and start being one toolkit he calls economic statecraft. That fits uncomfortably well with Michael’s argument. The WTO-era system, he says, only works if everyone is on the same geopolitical page, and that page is gone. What replaces it is a world where governments need an answer to a deceptively simple question - what is GDP for? - and where China’s neo-mercantilist model leaves everyone else choosing whether to integrate with it or against it. Elsewhere in the episode: how forced-labor tariffs are speeding up a global supply-chain crackdown, and why America’s job machine looks better in the headline numbers than in workers’ lives. What Went Wrong This Month Globalization is (apparently) back. DHL’s globalization tracker has globalization at a record in 2025, goods trade in the first half of 2026 growing at its fastest pace in 15 years (Covid rebound aside), and forecasts upgraded for 2026-29. Yet only 1.6% of world goods trade was between the US and China in January-May 2026, down from 3.5% at the peak. Our read: it’s the same trade with a new name, and a lot like the “N minus one” world Richard Baldwin has been describing. Trump, accidental forced-labor crusader. The Wall Street Journal argues that using forced labor as a justification for tariffs is accelerating a global crackdown on forced labor in supply chains, even if the tariffs themselves get overturned. After the Supreme Court struck down the global tariffs in February, Washington turned to Section 301 against 60 economies, and partners including Canada, India, Colombia, Mexico and Argentina are tightening their own rules to take the excuse away. The US is well ahead on enforcement (20,000 shipments denied entry under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act as of August 2026, versus two blocked by Canada so far, and an EU ban that doesn’t bite until December 2027). The business takeaway: forced-labor compliance is becoming a market-access requirement, not a CSR line item, and customs officers are about to be asked to work out whether a shirt was made with forced labor, which, as they’d like us to know, is not their job. America’s job machine is underwhelming. Bloomberg’s Jonathan Levin (October 5) argues the US labor market is weaker than the headline numbers suggest: job growth is concentrated in lower-paying occupations, hiring is sluggish even though layoffs remain at historic lows, and it’s harder for workers to move into better-paid roles. That helps explain why consumers feel gloomy despite low unemployment. We wonder where the good jobs are going - AI, offshoring, or both. Our guest: Michael Every Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank, where he looks across assets, disciplines and geographies for the bank’s economics and markets division in Singapore. He has more than two decades of experience as an economist and strategist. Before Rabobank, he was director at Silk Roads Associates in Bangkok, senior economist and fixed income strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in London and Sydney, and an economist at Dun & Bradstreet in London. He holds a master’s degree in economics with distinction from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai. In our conversation, we cover: How someone who came to economics from politics and history ended up as a global strategist, p
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  The Quiet Tariff Retreat, Germany's China Rethink and Banque Syz CIO on Geopolitics, Markets and "Slowbalization" 30.09.2026 47m

  The headlines say the tariff war is still raging. According to Richard Baldwin, Washington has spent the past year quietly backing away from it, one exemption and carve-out at a time. In episode 93, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that retreat means for a global trading system that increasingly seems to be organising itself around the US rather than through it. Then we sit down with Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Bank Syz, to ask how investors should think about geopolitics, industrial policy and capital flows in what he calls the era of "slowbalization." Trade policy, energy security and investment strategy are no longer separate conversations. Canada and the EU are building a deeper partnership, Germany is weighing a tougher economic-security approach to China, and an energy squeeze is heading into winter that looks a lot like 2022. Meanwhile, our guest points out that global equities were hitting record highs despite all the scary headlines. The awkward question for anyone with a portfolio, a supply chain or a heating bill is how those pieces fit together. What Went Wrong This Week The quiet tariff retreat. Baldwin argues the effective US tariff rate rose from about 2% to a peak of around 11% in October 2025, then fell to roughly 6.7% by May 2026, largely through exemptions and lower applied rates rather than public reversals. His read: the rest of the world is adapting around the US in what he calls an "N minus one" trading system. Canada and the EU move closer. A deeper strategic partnership, Mark Carney's call for a closer alliance of like-minded democracies, CETA's provisional application, and why supply chains and critical minerals are part of the story. Germany's China rethink. Bloomberg reports Berlin is preparing a tougher economic-security approach: tariffs on certain Chinese plug-in hybrids, investment screening, export controls, EU procurement preferences, local content requirements, and possibly joint-venture rules for Chinese firms in Europe. We look at "China shock 2.0," the rare earths choke point, and the price gap between a Renault EV and a BYD or Xpeng. The energy squeeze. Hormuz, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining, record US diesel prices and the on-again, off-again talk of a US export ban, record-low EU gas storage for this time of year, and a fertilizer squeeze that could outlast the Hormuz closure itself (Peter Goodman flagged that one). The lesson: depending on US energy is now a risk you have to hedge. Our guest: Charles-Henry Monchau Charles-Henry Monchau is Chief Investment Officer and ExCo member at Bank Syz. Before that, he was CIO of Dubai Investments and head of asset allocation for EMEA at Deutsche Bank, with senior roles across Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. He holds an executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in finance from HEC, is a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charterholder, and is a top voice on LinkedIn with more than 280,000 followers. In our conversation, we cover: What a CIO actually does (the answer involves an orchestra conductor and the auto industry). Why contrarian investing is easy to explain and very hard to do: the moment to take some profits is when everything looks perfect, and the hardest moment to buy risk is when it feels like the end of the world. From globalisation to "slowbalization": US-China geo-economics, sovereignty, why chips are now made at home rather than by the lowest-cost producer, and the three strategic priorities he sees: AI and robotics, defence, and electric power. Why global equities keep hitting all-time highs despite the headlines, from a record DAX with only two tech stocks to a rally broadening across Europe and emerging markets, and why he calls it "the most hated global equity bull market." Why geopolitics and geoeconomics are here to stay, as both an opportunity and a risk for investors. Why he sees the bond market as the ultimate judge of US policy, from Liberation Day to the "TACO" tr
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  Swiss Made, Chokepoints and a Digital Pandemic ft. ITU's Tomas Lamanauskas 03.09.2026 39m

  What actually happens when the internet stops working? Not the brief flicker-of-wifi kind, but a real digital pandemic - solar storms, satellite collisions, and heat waves taking out the servers holding your bank account, your health records and your group chats hostage. That's the world ITU Deputy Secretary-General Tomas Lamanauskas has been mapping in the International Telecommunication Union's new Digital Risk Report, and it turns out digital resilience is now squarely a trade and infrastructure story, not just an IT problem. Ardian and Rob talk to Lamanauskas about why the ITU is borrowing pandemic language to describe outages, the mechanics of Kessler Syndrome (yes, the Gravity/Armageddon scenario), why submarine cables need their own 42-expert international advisory board, and why "analog skills" - like knowing how to function without WhatsApp for an afternoon - are suddenly a policy conversation. Before the interview, Ardian and Rob run through this month's "What Went Wrong": why the FT thinks Swiss manufacturing faces a harder question than tariffs alone - namely, what "Swiss made" actually means once companies like Bernina start moving production to Thailand while keeping the engineering at home. They also cover Switzerland's newly upgraded free trade agreement with China, which pushes Swiss duty-free access to the Chinese market from roughly 50% to 99.8%, and the US-Canada trade collapse that the Wall Street Journal has dubbed "the stupidest trade war ever" - 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and cars, retaliatory tariffs starting September 8th, and China's opportunistic pitch to Ottawa as the more predictable trading partner. Plus: listener feedback on sustainable aviation fuel and greenwashing, Silicon Valley's new favorite recession indicator (limited-edition AI-branded Tudor watches), and a bridge in France that gives oversized vehicles a very unwanted haircut. Listen to episode 92 of Trade Splaining wherever you get your podcasts, and let us know what you think at tradesplaining@gmail.com.  
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  Tariff Bingo: Trump vs the EU, China's Economic Fortress, and Europe's Rare Earth Problem 13.08.2026 33m

  Everyone weaponized trade policy at once this month, and the targets weren't always the obvious ones. Trump's latest tariff threats landed on the EU in retaliation for European fines on tech firms, which makes this a regulatory fight dressed up as a trade fight - and means every EU competition decision is now a potential tariff-triggering event. Add a threatened 100% tariff on generic drugs, and the low-cost end of the US supply chain starts looking fragile. Meanwhile the bill from the Iran war is arriving late but arriving. Strategic reserves are thinning, diesel and jet fuel are tight, and the Houthis are now vowing a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which puts the other oil export route in play alongside Hormuz. The New York Times Peter S. Goodman takes the diesel crisis all the way down to Bangladeshi smallholder farmers who need it to pump water, which is a useful corrective to the European trucking angle. Heat is doing macro damage too: Europe's grids were built for a different climate, and retrofitting Switzerland alone for cooling carries a price tag in the hundreds of billions of francs. Then there's China, which is quietly running the export control playbook it spent five years complaining about. Beijing is tightening controls on outbound investment by companies and citizens, Huawei has engineered its way around US export controls with chip stacking and other workarounds, and the emerging assessment is that China came through the trade war in better shape than most of us assumed. Ardian and Rob get into whether export controls actually do anything beyond forcing innovation, whether the "Chinese model is collapsing" story is analysis or politics, and what it means for an export machine if the rest of the world eventually can't afford to buy. Which leads to Europe. The EU is talking tougher on Chinese overcapacity and subsidies, but China can retaliate faster through rare earths and critical inputs. Brussels keeps signing rules-based agreements - Mercosur, Switzerland, the post-Brexit deal - covering tariffs, services, labour and environmental standards, digital rules and investment protection, while US deals go transactional and bilateral. The awkward part: Europe hasn't actually used any of those agreements against subsidized Chinese manufacturing yet. Plus: TS correspondent Michelle returns from six months inside the Walmart employees subreddit with a report on drone cages in the parking lot, stolen Zebra scanners, and Walmart's two podcasts. There's a global whey protein shortage, a Geneva perch bumper crop, a man who allegedly stole a Sea-Doo in Canada and livestreamed his illegal border crossing, and an Air Canada pilot who spent 17 years in the cockpit without a licence. 🎧 Listen at www.tradesplaining.com or wherever you get your podcasts
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  Hormuz Fallout, China as the New Swing Energy Importer and Ports 02.07.2026 37m

  In Episode 90 of Trade Splaining, Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore are back to unpack how geopolitics, energy markets and global shipping disruptions are finding their way into the everyday economy — from oil prices and port congestion to pain au chocolat, ice cream cones and Aperol Spritzes. We start with the Strait of Hormuz, where fears of an oil price shock ran into a more complicated reality. China’s role as a “swing importer,” existing oil supply gluts, demand destruction, rerouting and refinery adaptation all helped explain why markets did not quite melt down — even as the risks around energy security and logistics remain very real. Then we follow the supply chain into breakfast and dessert. Why is a pain au chocolat more expensive? Why can an ice cream cone cost $8? The answer is not one input but many — wheat, butter, cocoa, diesel, refrigeration, labour, packaging and energy all moving in uncomfortable directions at once. Globalization, it turns out, is now coming for your snack budget. This episode also features a conversation with Jan Hoffmann, Global Lead for Maritime Transport and Ports at the World Bank, on the latest Container Port Performance Index. Jan explains what the CPPI actually measures, why port rankings can get political, how rerouting through the Red Sea, Hormuz and beyond affects port performance, and why the global shipping map is changing in ways that are more about friend-shoring than near-shoring. We also get into MSC vs Maersk, port ownership, shipping line-linked terminal operators, the geopolitics of port concessions, and — naturally — Jan’s ongoing haircut index and his Washington, DC kebab recommendation. Plus: Gen Z’s anti-AI nostalgia, the World Cup heat dome, Bosnia’s unofficial theme song, Geneva’s Aperol Spritz problem, and why 320 kilos of meth is probably over the “personal use” threshold. Listen now for a trade, shipping and geopolitics episode that connects the Strait of Hormuz, China’s energy leverage, port performance, global inflation and your next overpriced ice cream cone.
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  Trade Finds a Way, But Your Parcel Might Not: Global Express Association's Carlos Grau on Customs, De Minimis & Global Delivery 04.06.2026 38m

  Episode 89 - Trade Finds a Way, But Your Parcel Might Not: Global Express Association's Carlos Grau on Customs, De Minimis & Global Delivery Trade has a funny way of showing up in your life. Sometimes it is tariffs, oil prices and semiconductor supply chains. Other times, it is your package sitting at the border while someone tries to decide whether “gift” and “zero value” is a legally persuasive customs strategy. In this episode of Trade Splaining, Rob and Ardian look at why global trade is still proving surprisingly resilient - even as geopolitics, shipping disruptions and rising trade costs keep trying to ruin the party. Goods trade grew strongly in early 2026, helped in part by US demand for AI-related products like servers, semiconductors and data center equipment. But that momentum is running straight into familiar risks: the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, shipping uncertainty and the growing reality that trade may still find a way, but it might cost more and arrive later. The episode also looks at Europe’s attempt to become a more serious geopolitical actor in supply chains, with the EU preparing stronger emergency powers over semiconductor production and critical chip orders. Rob and Ardian also revisit the eternal zombie file of Brexit, asking whether “Bre-entry” - Britain eventually rejoining or moving closer to the EU - is still political fantasy, strategic inevitability, or simply the trade policy sequel nobody asked for but everyone keeps watching. The main interview features Carlos Grau Tanner, Director General of the Global Express Association, the Geneva-based association representing DHL, FedEx and UPS on global policy issues including trade, customs, aviation, air transport, security and postal regulation. Carlos explains how express delivery works behind the scenes, why customs rules matter more than most people realize, and how the explosion in low-value e-commerce parcels is putting real pressure on border agencies. As more countries move away from de minimis thresholds, governments may collect more duties and taxes - but they also risk making customs procedures far more complex than they need to be. The conversation gets into why a $20 parcel should not necessarily be treated like a container full of high-value goods, how simplified customs regimes could reduce friction, and why better data from platforms, payment systems and logistics operators could help customs authorities target risk without slowing everything down. Carlos also explains why trade fragmentation is changing the global logistics map. As companies rethink where they produce, sell and distribute, express carriers need flexible air traffic rights and modern cargo rules that allow them to adapt to shifting trade lanes. In other words: if trade patterns are changing, the rules governing cargo aircraft need to change with them. Plus: customs suspicion around gifts, why your grandmother’s sweater might need a declared value, whether kebab can be shipped internationally, Geneva’s kebab data set, Swiss cows facing cross-border restrictions, and the sad passing of Lazare, the local dog who almost made it to the world record books. Listen now for a conversation on global trade, customs, e-commerce, logistics, supply chains and why the boring stuff at the border is becoming some of the most important stuff in the world economy.
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  Hormuz Oil Shock, Airfares and the Future of Flying - IATA’s Chief Economist on the New Energy Crisis 21.05.2026 34m

  Episode 88: Hormuz Oil Shock, Airfares and the Future of Flying - IATA’s Chief Economist on the New Energy Crisis Oil shocks used to feel like something that happened in markets, headlines and awkward economist panels. Not anymore. In this episode of Trade Splaining, we look at how the latest energy shock is moving from oil markets into the parts of the economy people actually feel - airfares, airline schedules, fuel tanks, EV demand, government energy policy and, potentially, your next holiday. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer just a geopolitics story. It is becoming a consumer story, a transport story and a very expensive reminder that energy security still runs through some very narrow places. This week, Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), joins the show to explain why aviation is facing what she calls a double energy crisis: an oil crisis and a refining crisis. Airlines do not fly on crude oil - they fly on jet fuel. And when jet fuel prices rise sharply, airlines face immediate pressure on costs, routes, pricing and survival. Marie breaks down why sustainable aviation fuel is not as simple as “just make greener jet fuel,” why refineries are far more interconnected than most people realise, and why the future of flying depends on much bigger questions around energy systems, investment, infrastructure and political timelines. In other words: aviation may be only a small slice of refined fuel output, but when the system starts creaking, everyone notices. Also in this episode: Trump and Xi apparently make trade nice again - details pending, napkins possibly missing - Europe’s airlines brace for higher costs, EVs get a crisis-driven boost, Swatch and Audemars Piguet release expensive pendant-shaped plastic, Switzerland accidentally gets a king, and Italy battles the real menace of our time: marauding peacocks. In this episode: How the Hormuz crisis is feeding into fuel prices, airline costs and travel disruption Why jet fuel is not the same thing as crude oil - and why that matters How higher fuel prices could affect airfares, routes and airline profitability Why Europe may be especially exposed to aviation fuel shocks Marie Owens Thomsen on IATA, sustainability and the future of air transport Why sustainable aviation fuel requires a whole energy-system rethink How refinery economics shape the future of aviation Whether this crisis could accelerate renewable energy and alternative fuels The strange incentives now facing governments, airlines and consumers Switzerland’s self-declared king and Italy’s peacock problem Featured guest Marie Owens Thomsen is Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), where she is also responsible for environmental and sustainability activities and serves on IATA’s Management Committee. She previously worked at Lombard Odier as Head of Global Trends and Sustainability and has held senior roles across investment banking, private banking and international economics. Keywords Trade Splaining, IATA, Marie Owens Thomsen, aviation, airfares, jet fuel, oil shock, Strait of Hormuz, energy crisis, sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, airline industry, global trade, energy security, transport, geopolitics, supply chains, renewable energy, refining crisis, airlines, EV demand, global economy.
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  USMCA on the Brink? Trade Fragmentation, Supply Chain Chaos & the Rise of “Just in Case” 30.04.2026 31m

  Episode 87 - USMCA Uncertainty, Trade Fragmentation & the Future of Supply Chains Global trade is shifting - and not everyone agrees on where it’s heading. In this episode, we break down the growing uncertainty around USMCA, the rise of trade fragmentation, and what it means when the system moves away from efficiency toward resilience. We also sit down with Will Petty, Global Head of Product Development at A.P. Moller - Maersk Trade & Customs Consulting, to understand how companies are actually responding on the ground - from navigating tariffs to rethinking supply chains and compliance. Key topics include: Is USMCA at risk - and what happens if it unravels Why the US is pushing bilateral over regional trade deals The shift from “just in time” to “just in case” supply chains Commodity fragmentation - from copper pricing gaps to stockpiling Why resilience comes with real economic costs (inflation, inefficiency, volatility) How companies are adapting to tariff complexity and geopolitical disruption The growing importance of supply chain data, traceability, and compliance Will supply chains get shorter - or just more complicated? With Will Petty (Maersk), we discuss: How businesses are reacting to constant disruption The real-world impact of tariffs and shifting trade flows Why understanding your supply chain is now a competitive advantage The risk - and opportunity - of shrinking supply chains Plus: Expat insights Geneva kebab rankings And the unexpected return of… mall culture
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  Is the WTO Still Relevant? MC14, Trade Chaos & a Surprisingly Resilient System | Peter Foster (FT) 07.04.2026 28m

  Episode 86 – Is the WTO Still Relevant? MC14, Trade Chaos & a Surprisingly Resilient System | Peter Foster (FT) 🎧 Listen: t.ly/K4Jnc Has the global trading system fundamentally broken — or is it proving more resilient than expected? In Episode 86 of Trade Splaining, we sit down with Peter Foster, World Trade Editor at the Financial Times, to unpack the real outcomes of WTO Ministerial Conference 14 (MC14) and what they reveal about the future of global trade. 🌍 What we cover: MC14: What actually happenedThe conference ended with limited concrete outcomes, highlighting deep divisions — particularly around the e-commerce moratorium and broader reform efforts. Is the WTO still relevant?We explore whether the WTO is adapting to a new global reality or slowly drifting toward irrelevance in a world dominated by great power politics. Rise of regional and plurilateral dealsAs consensus becomes harder, countries are increasingly turning to smaller coalitions and regional agreements to move forward. Trade policy chaosFrom “napkin deals” to unpredictable negotiations, the current trade environment is becoming harder for governments and businesses to navigate. The big paradox: trade resilienceDespite rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, global trade flows have remained surprisingly stable — raising questions about how much has really changed. 🔑 Key takeaway: Even in a more fragmented and politically charged world, global trade continues to function — not because the system is strong, but because the incentives to keep it going are still stronger. ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 – Intro & episode 86 (Radon edition)03:20 – Interview with Peter Foster05:00 – MC14 recap10:00 – WTO relevance debate16:00 – Trade resilience vs tariffs20:00 – Future of global trade24:00 – Local news (Swiss cheese diplomacy 🧀) 📢 Follow & support Twitter/X: @TradeSplainingInstagram: @TradeSplainingEmail: tradesplaining@gmail.com
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  Tariffs Struck Down… Then Came Back + A Middle East Conflict That Threatens Food Prices ft. Peter S Goodman (NYT) 18.03.2026 34m

  Episode 85 – Tariffs Struck Down… Then Came Back + Middle East Conflict Threatens Food Prices Have tariffs really been rolled back — or just repackaged under a different legal label? In Episode 85 of Trade Splaining, we unpack the fallout from the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs — and why, despite the headlines, not much may have actually changed. We then turn to a fast-moving and underreported risk: how the Middle East conflict is disrupting global fertilizer supply chains — and what that could mean for food prices worldwide. We’re joined by Peter S. Goodman (New York Times) to break down why this matters more than most people think. 🔑 What we cover Why US tariffs were struck down — and how they came back almost immediately What happens to the $133 billion in tariff revenues now in legal limbo Whether trade policy has actually shifted — or just changed legal justification Why supply chains continue to reconfigure rather than truly de-risk How a third of global fertilizer supply depends on the Persian Gulf Why urea prices spiked ~45% in a week — and what that signals How fertilizer shortages translate into lower yields and higher food prices Why globalization isn’t going away — despite rising geopolitical tensions The economic incentives preventing a real shift toward resilience 💡 Key takeaways The legal basis for tariffs may have changed — but the policy hasn’t Tariffs remain a central tool of economic and geopolitical leverage Supply chains are adapting, but not necessarily becoming more resilient Global food systems remain highly exposed to geopolitical shocks Efficiency continues to win over resilience — until crisis hits 🌍 Why this matters From tariffs to fertilizers, this episode highlights just how interconnected today’s global economy really is. Disruptions in one region — whether legal, political, or military — can quickly ripple across supply chains, prices, and everyday life. And despite all the talk of “deglobalization,” the system remains deeply interdependent — and fragile. 📢 Listen & follow If you enjoyed the episode:👉 Follow / Subscribe on your preferred platform👉 Share with a fellow trade nerd👉 Help us (and the algorithm) by leaving a rating or review 🔎 Keywords (for SEO) tariffs, US trade policy, Supreme Court tariffs ruling, Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer supply, urea prices, global food prices, supply chains, globalization, trade policy podcast
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  Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Looking Ahead: Is the Rules-Based Trading System Breaking Down? 12.02.2026 33m

  Episode 84 is here — and yes, 84 is the atomic number of polonium, 1984 is Orwellian, and Van Halen absolutely peaked. You’re welcome. We’re joined again by friend of the pod Dmitry Grozoubinski, Executive Director of the Geneva Trade Platform and author of Why Politicians Lie About Trade. And we ask the big question: 👉 Has the global trading system fundamentally changed — or are we just living through noisy turbulence? We break down: Why Rob’s 2025 prediction that “everything will look mostly the same” is… under pressure Whether tariff chaos has permanently destroyed predictability Why certainty matters more than tariff levels The EU–Mercosur deal and what it really signals The weakening of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment Why customs, sanctions, and rules of origin are about to get much more complicated And Dmitry’s predictions for 2026 (spoiler: more tariff threats, fewer illusions) Is this the end of the rules-based system?Or just a new phase where national security openly trumps trade orthodoxy? Also: airplanes turning around because of toilets. Again. Listen responsibly.
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  Trade, National Security and 2026 Walk Into a Bar 27.01.2026 36m

  Is everything national security now? In Episode 83 of Trade Splaining, Ardi & Rob kick off 2026 by diving head-first into the growing chaos at the intersection of trade policy, geopolitics, and national security exceptions — the legal loophole that ate the global trading system. We break down why trade is no longer just about efficiency or tariffs, but increasingly about power, leverage, and security theatre — from Greenland and semiconductors to Japan–China tensions and WTO rule-stretching. Then we’re joined (again) by two of our favourite adults in the room: Dr. Mona Paulsen (LSE) Prof. Greg Messenger (University of Bristol) Together, we unpack: Why “national security” now seems to cover everything except furniture Whether today’s chaos is a temporary shock — or a return to how trade always worked What businesses should actually watch for amid policy incoherence Whether the US is still a reliable anchor for the global trading system And why the real question isn’t what Washington does — but what everyone else does next Plus: A new 2026 format (more depth, fewer Lake Geneva anecdotes — we promise) Sleep-bro optimisation culture (yes, really) AI, soft skills, and why getting your boss coffee is apparently back Donuts, laundry, and the National Security Exception™ as a life philosophy 🎙️ No opinions. Just vibes. And trade law. 👉 Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.📩 Questions? trade.splaining@gmail.com🔔 Like, subscribe, follow — appease the algorithm. #TradeSplaining #GlobalTrade #NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #TradePolicy #WTO #SupplyChains #ListenResponsibly
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  Tariffs, Tomato Paste, and the 2025 End-of-Year Recap 29.12.2025 35m

  In Episode 82 of Trade Splaining, Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore close out the year with an end-of-year global trade reality check. This episode covers: Why Europe’s energy transition is starting to hit household wallets China’s overcapacity problem — from electric vehicles to tomato paste Why tariffs are proving inflationary (again) and failing to cut trade deficits How supply chains keep finding workarounds, no matter the policy Rising debt and capital outflows facing developing economies What “fragmentation” looks like in practice — and whether there’s a third way No guest this time — just a wide-ranging news roundup, listener feedback, and a reminder that when pizza orders start shrinking, something bigger is going on. 🎧 Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts. 📩 Get in touch: tradesplaining@gmail.com🐦 Follow us on Twitter/X & BlueSky | 📸 Instagram | 💼 LinkedIn Listen responsibly.
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  Tariffs, Tech, and Toxic Metals: What We Missed This Summer 22.10.2025 50m

  Trade Splaining is back! After a summer break (and one new baby later), Ardi and Rob return to make sense of what’s changed — and what hasn’t — in global trade, business, and expat life. From the latest round of tariffs and China’s “pivot” away from developing-country status at the WTO, to why AI might be the next big trade disruptor, we break down the stories shaping the global economy in 2025. We’re also joined by Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age, to unpack how geopolitical rivalries are reshaping globalization — or maybe just rearranging it. In This Episode: 🎵 Why global trade sounds like a Kelly Clarkson song 🇨🇳 China’s slowdown vs. export boom — and what Michael Pettis got right 💸 Why tariffs haven’t been inflationary (yet) 🧠 How AI is quietly rewriting the rules of services trade 🌍 Neil Shearing on the U.S.–China split, Europe’s role, and who wins in a fractured world 🕰️ Plus: Swiss MAGA farmers, salmon sperm facials as recession indicators, and the new rock-solid watch from Tissot Keywords:global trade podcast, Trade Splaining, Neil Shearing, The Fractured Age, deglobalization, US-China trade war, WTO 2025, AI and trade, services trade, tariffs inflation, global economy podcast
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  The (new) New Trade Policy, AI and How Apple Helped Build Modern China ft. Patrick McGee 27.06.2025 48m

  In Episode 80 of Trade Splaining, we’re pulling back the curtain on everything from secret sausage wars to how Apple helped build modern China. Along the way, we break down the increasingly blurry line between trade policy and geopolitics, why AI is now after your desk job, and how sober tailgates and millennial nostalgia are the new macro indicators. Special Guest: Patrick McGee, FT journalist and author of Apple in China, joins us to explain: Why Apple didn’t just outsource manufacturing to China—it helped build it How a $55B investment strategy turned into a Marshall Plan for advanced manufacturing Why decoupling is harder than we think, and what it means for the future of globalization Also in this episode: Is trade policy dead—or just dressed up as national security? The AI job shock: not just repetitive tasks, but white-collar jobs too A big new EU–Switzerland trade deal (and an even bigger name: “The Bilaterals”) Listener feedback, airline mysteries, stolen sausage secrets, and the return of All-American Rejects 🎧 Listen now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your shows.
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  Shipping Goes Net Zero, Sell America and Talking Circular Economy 30.05.2025 42m

  Description:In Episode 79 of Trade Splaining, Rob and Ardian dive deep into the surprising relevance of decarbonizing global shipping, why GDP might not be the best metric anymore, and how the EU and UK are slowly making Brexit... not a thing. We also ask: is multilateralism really dead—or just resting? 💡 What You'll Hear in This Episode: Circular Reasoning (with actual logic): Guest Eva-Maria Bille of the European Environmental Bureau unpacks why circular economy policies matter more than ever—especially in a world of inflation, geopolitics, and defense budgets. Shipping News That Doesn’t Suck: The IMO’s historic (kind of) net-zero deal for shipping by 2050, what it means, and why it’s both hopeful and half-baked. Sell America? Moody’s downgrades the US credit rating, tourism is slowing, and Americans are quietly flocking to Swiss banks. Coincidence? We think not. GDP Is Over Party: A new push to rethink how we measure economic health. Is it time to dump GDP in favor of balance sheet metrics? Brexit: The Silent Patch-Up: A new EU-UK trade deal smooths post-Brexit trade pain. Is it a quiet realignment or political heresy? Swiss Wool Emergency & War Readiness: From Geneva’s updated war brochure to a growing sheep wool crisis, it’s your must-hear Swiss WTFs. 🔁 Also Featuring: Listener shoutouts to "Eric" and Ron "Burgundy" Michelle’s "Vibe Shift" report: Enron eggs, TikTok satire, and the birds that were never real A kebab-off between Geneva and Beirut A surprisingly accurate Bond reference and sheep-related crisis management 📬 Subscribe, review, share—and email us your feedback or best kebab takes at Trade.Splaining@gmail.com Listen now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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  Tariffs, Trade Turbulence & Customs Insights ft. Lars Karlsson 02.05.2025 42m

  In Episode 78 of Trade Splaining, hosts Rob and Ardi explore the complex impact of tariffs on global trade, the humorous yet insightful nature of episode 78, and unique trade issues around the world. Guest Lars Karlsson from Maersk discusses how both small and large companies are navigating the new trade realities. The episode also covers topical issues such as the pistachio shortage, the impact of European policies on trade, and new recession indicators. Additionally, it touches on disruptions like the ban on Brazilian butt lift ads in the UK and the rise in train robberies.   00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview 02:31 Listener Feedback and Corrections 04:26 Market Trends and Economic Insights 12:59 De-Dollarization and Global Financial Shifts 16:35 Interview with Lars Carlson: Navigating Trade Complexities 20:47 Challenges for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) 21:27 The Role of AI in Supply Chain Management 22:40 Customs and Compliance in a Changing Trade Environment 24:14 The Impact of Tariff Conflicts on Global Trade 26:24 Navigating Uncertainty in International Trade 29:11 The Future of Trade and Emerging Solutions 36:08 Recession Indicators and Economic Trends 38:53 Local News and Unusual Events 40:50 Podcast Wrap-Up and Listener Engagement
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  China’s China Shock & Tariff Reality Check ft. Peter S. Goodman 07.04.2025 36m

  Episode 77: China’s China Shock & Tariff Reality Check ft. Peter S. Goodman Episode Summary:In Episode 77 of Trade Splaining, we dig into China’s very own “China Shock,” why Budweiser is going budget in Shanghai, and how the global economy might be looking a lot more like... China’s. Plus, New York Times journalist Peter S. Goodman returns for his third appearance to discuss how the ground-level impact of tariffs is changing the game—from Colombian factory floors to bourbon country in Kentucky. We’re also talking nearshoring, recession vibes, and why Geneva’s exotic bird problems could signal more than just invasive species. 🔍 In this episode: Why China’s slowdown is not just about growth, but a structural shift in manufacturing What the "China China Shock" means for global supply chains Is Trump’s tariff plan actually a branding strategy? What whiskey, rye, and Louisville have to do with nationalism And…the clean girl aesthetic as a recession indicator 🧴 🎧 Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Special Guest:📚 Peter S. Goodman – Global Economic Correspondent at The New York Times and author of How the World Ran Out of Everything 🔗 Connect with us: X / Twitter: @TradeSplaining Instagram: @trade.splaining Email: tradesplaining@gmail.com
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  The Green Transition, Customs Fraud & Why Tariffs Might Save the WTO (sort of) 20.03.2025 38m

  Episode Summary:In this episode of Trade Splaining, we unpack the latest twists in the Green Transition—spoiler alert: China’s winning. We also explore how chaos is reshaping global trade, why Manchester United’s new stadium might cost a fortune (hint: tariffs), and the Swiss government's crackdown on... cheap meat? Our guest, Professor Joost Pauwelyn, joins us to break down 21st-century customs fraud, how trade rules are shifting, and why the WTO may actually survive this era of economic uncertainty. If you’ve ever wondered how renewable energy, geopolitics, and tariffs intersect—or whether you should still care about composting—this episode is for you. 🔹 In This Episode: China’s dominance in the Green Transition and why Europe is struggling to keep up The hidden cost of Manchester United’s new stadium—tariffs, steel prices, and trade wars Switzerland’s unexpected role as the world's top container trader What’s happening with customs fraud, sustainability standards, and the rise of "trade surveillance" The future of WTO, and why reciprocal tariffs might actually save it And, of course, a deep dive into Geneva’s most pressing issue—affordable meat 🎧 Listen now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. 🔗 Links & Mentions: Follow us on Twitter/X Join the conversation on Instagram Have a hot take? Email us at tradesplaining@gmail.com