The David McWilliams Podcast

Episodes

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  A View From NYC: The Diaspora and the Midterms 15.10.2026 39m

  Live from New York, with a radical idea: treat the Irish diaspora as our greatest soft power asset. Every Irish child costs the state about €500,000 to educate, and America pockets the return when they emigrate. So scrap tax for two years for anyone coming home, and give citizenship to a third generation of Irish Americans. Then the midterms, four weeks out. Trump is on 33%, the lowest of any midterm president since 1974, petrol is back above $4, and markets give Democrats a 65% shot at both chambers. A blue wave makes him a lame duck. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Tiramisu Budget: Is Ireland West European or West African? 13.10.2026 43m

  Ireland’s budget surplus is €9 billion, but the Department of Finance reckons €23 billion of the €34 billion in corporation tax is transient AI-boom money. Strip it out and we’re looking at a €13-14 billion deficit, heading for €20 billion by 2029. Meanwhile we’ve just pumped €7.4 billion of tax cuts and handouts into an economy already at full employment. Recorded live from New York, where financiers are getting twitchy about an AI bubble: US long-term rates are creeping towards 6%, and superscalers now gobble up 17% of the capital the Treasury needs. We ask whether Ireland is Norway or Nigeria when it comes to managing a windfall, why a hard budget focuses the mind, and why a rotating Taoiseach and a split Department of Finance add up to ordering two tiramisus because the voucher is free. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Mr 5%: The Armenian Who Invented the Oil Industry and Gave It All Away 08.10.2026 43m

  Calouste Gulbenkian never drilled a well, never owned a rig, and still died the richest man in the world. We follow the Armenian fixer from Constantinople who took 5% of everything: the Turkish Petroleum Company, Royal Dutch Shell, even a deal with Stalin paid in Hermitage art. His maps shaped modern Iraq and left the Kurds sitting on top of the oil, and his split of upstream, refining and distribution still defines Big Oil today. Plus why diesel is spiking, what a 100 million barrel release really does, and why this misanthropic networker gave his fortune to art while today's billionaires build spaceships. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The End of The Housing Crisis? 06.10.2026 33m

  Dublin prices have fallen 5.2% last year, the biggest drop since 2014, and the buyer's strike is real. The premium over asking has shrunk from 7% to 2.6%, and the average couple on €108k can borrow just enough for a €484k home when a three-bed semi in Dublin asks €635k. We break down why: young people are maxed out, we're still building 1980s houses for a 2020s population, and the force driving prices this time is people, not credit like in 2008. Plus the Spanish eviction story that had Madrid in uproar, and why "the cure for high prices is high prices." Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Are Teenagers Getting Dumber? 01.10.2026 39m

  15-year-olds across the OECD are now testing at levels last seen among 14-year-olds a decade ago, we've lost a full year of cognitive ability in ten years. One in five teenagers in the rich world would struggle to read their own phone bill. We dig into why: screens, AI shortcuts, the death of patient reading, and a "snowflake-isation" of education that's swapped hard exams for soft assessment. Ireland's own numbers aren't pretty either, with reading and maths both sliding since 2015. Is this really decline, or have we simply hit a natural ceiling on middle-class intelligence, meaning the real gains left are among poorer kids? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Welfare State vs Immigration: What Ireland's Numbers Actually Say 29.09.2026 34m

  Can a generous welfare state and large-scale immigration coexist? Fresh research says it depends on who arrives and what kind of welfare state they arrive in. In the UK, an average migrant couple needs a primary earner in the 55th percentile to pay their way. In Germany, it's the 28th. In Ireland, our back-of-envelope sums say the 65th, or about €62,000 a year. We break down why Ireland's tax and welfare system, where someone on €27,000 gets €11,000 back from the state and someone on €104,000 pays in €40,000, changes the whole debate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Xi vs Trump: Inside the Chinese Economic Machine 24.09.2026 42m

  Trump and Xi sit down in Washington today, but the real story is how China actually built its economic juggernaut. China expert Yanmei Xie breaks down the "catfish in the sardine tank" strategy behind China's EV dominance, why Chinese carmakers compete profit margins down to 3-4% just to win market share, and how a Leninist system mobilises household savings to fund it all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Ed Sheeranisation of Irish Economic Policy 22.09.2026 39m

  This episode provides a midterm assessment of the Irish economy, exploring the disconnect between record-breaking macroeconomic data and the lived experience of the public. We analyse the "Ed Sheeranization" of Ireland,the delicate balance between American corporate reliance and European political identity, and the systemic risks posed by the global AI arms race. From "Dutch disease" to the challenges of economic gluttony, we examine why Ireland’s future is now entirely in its own hands. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Pacing the Frontier: Global Capital, Bond Markets, and the AI Pivot 17.09.2026 41m

  There has been a transition from a world of abundant capital to one of scarcity. With the rising interest rates across the US, UK, and France, we discuss the economic implications of Donald Trump’s "fairway diplomacy" in Ireland, the structural fragility of European bond markets, and the sudden shift in rhetoric from AI leaders calling for regulation. Is the move to "pace the frontier" is a moral awakening regarding existential risk or a strategic play for state protection in a tightening financial landscape?NYC Tickets: https://irishartscenter.org/event/an-evening-with-david-mcwilliams-2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Death of the Night-Time Economy: Why Ireland is Closing Down After Midnight 15.09.2026 37m

  This week, we analyse the collapse of Ireland's night-time economy, noting that 2,205 pubs, one in four nationwide, have closed since 2005. With regional closure rates hitting 37% in Limerick and 33% in Cork, the discussion highlights how high excise duties and archaic licensing laws are strangling a $4 billion industry that supports 92,000 jobs. The episode explores why a country that markets itself on fun is systematically shutting down its social infrastructure. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Fairway Diplomacy: How Golf Became Ireland's Secret Weapon Against Trump 10.09.2026 40m

  Donald Trump touches down in Doonbeg this weekend for the Irish Open at his own golf course, and we're asking whether Ireland should protest or play along. We unpack the extraordinary Irish-American relationship: 40 daily flights to the US, $1.3 trillion in American investment, 300,000 jobs, and a bond built more on kitchen tables than diplomacy. We're joined by Donal Casey, former CEO of Rory McIlroy Inc., to talk golf's economics, why LIV Golf failed despite Saudi billions, and how the fairway - not the barricades, might be Ireland's smartest move with America's most unpredictable president. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Germany’s Seismic Shift: The Rise of the AfD 08.09.2026 42m

  A deep dive into the AfD’s 44% victory in Saxony-Anhalt and its implications for the European Union. We analyse the collapse of Germany’s political center, the demographic divide among young voters, and the historical tensions between East and West that are reshaping the continent’s future. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The AI Culture Wars 03.09.2026 37m

  We explore the new ideological divide between Silicon Valley’s techno-optimists and institutional economists like Daron Acemoglu. Will AI drive shared prosperity or concentrate wealth among a new technocratic elite?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Ireland's Immigration Numbers Don't Add Up And Housing Is Paying the Price 01.09.2026 36m

  Our population's just hit 5.5 million, and 72% of that growth is migration, not births. Five years ago 57% of work permits went to doctors, nurses and scientists. Now it's just 30%. We crunch the CSO numbers and ask the question nobody wants to: how many migrants can Ireland's housing market actually take before something breaks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Jackson Hole Reckoning: The $40 Trillion Debt Crisis and the End of Fiscal Exceptionalism 27.08.2026 36m

  As global central bankers convene for the Jackson Hole symposium, the interrogation of American fiscal credibility takes center stage. With US national debt surpassing $40 trillion and interest payments now exceeding the defense budget, the Treasury faces a critical standoff with the bond market. This analysis explores the limits of yield manipulation, the threat to the dollar’s role as global collateral, and the inevitable market-driven correction facing a politically paralyzed Washington. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  How A Massacre Created Modern Capitalism: The Huguenot Legacy 25.08.2026 35m

  On the anniversary of the St. Bartholomew’s Day Massacre, we explore the extraordinary economic impact of the French Huguenots. Discover how these religious refugees pioneered the merchant class, redefined the relationship between faith and finance, and built the foundations of modern capitalism. From the streets of Paris to the boardrooms of the Bank of Ireland, this episode uncovers the hidden history of the people who transformed the global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  20 Years Since the Celtic Tiger: Why the Irish Banking System is Still Broken 20.08.2026 35m

  August 2006 marked the beginning of the end for the Celtic Tiger, but the legacy of that crash continues to stifle the Irish economy today. We explore how the refinancing game collapsed, why Irish banks have become safe deposit boxes where money goes to die, and how the Central Bank’s over-regulation is forcing the state to take over the construction industry. Discover why Ireland is fighting with one arm tied behind its back and what it will take to get credit flowing to small businesses again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Chief Rule Breaker: David Gardner on Beating the Market 18.08.2026 44m

  I first came across The Motley Fool while working in the "bulge bracket" banks of the late 90s, where the goal was often to keep the public out. Sitting down with David Gardner, the man who helped break those walls down, was a masterclass in financial sovereignty. We discuss his six-trait framework for identifying world-beaters, the psychological grit required to ignore "overvalued" labels, and why the most powerful move an investor can make is simply to keep holding. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Caveman and That Dunsinking Feeling 13.08.2026 35m

  We mark Mack's 60th birthday by tackling the systemic paralysis of the Irish housing market. We examine the "CAVE" phenomenon: Citizens Against Virtually Everything, and how local objections are stalling massive developments like Dunsink. We'll walk you through why the state succeeds at attracting foreign investment but fails at building homes, and what this means for the next generation of Irish citizens. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Yen Dollar Euro Salad 11.08.2026 34m

  We explore the US Treasury’s unprecedented decision to prop up the Japanese Yen by selling Euro assets, a move that bypassed the ECB and shattered decades of diplomatic norms. This episode breaks down how America’s $1 trillion debt service is driving aggressive financial maneuvers and what the erosion of the global rules-based order means for the future of the Eurozone. We analyse the structural fragility of the US economy and the potential for a European retaliation that could reshape global geoeconomics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.